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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Brexit divide: How leave voters are less critical of the of the government over PPE supplies to NHS staff
With the supply of PPE equipment so dominating the news several pollsters have been asking questions like the latest from YouGov above on how Johnson’s government is performing over the issue. The answer overall is not very well with two thirds of voters saying the government is doing a bad job.
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So how does China explain away the obvious discrepancies between national and local reporting of numbers (unless i’m missing something) implicit within this article?
All this is saying is supporters of this government are more likely to have voted leave. Something we already knew and not directly related to the pandemic. Thought experiment: omit the preamble about supplying PPE and just ask a simple govt approval question you'd find the same thing.
It is really not surprising at all. The opposite result, or no difference would be surprising. Disappointing header.
https://www.channel4.com/programmes/can-science-beat-the-virus
There seems to be something of a reality gap in the way that, for example, the Turkish shipment was reported (as if the country was going to run out tomorrow if it didn’t arrive and it was only half a week’s supply anyway) and what must actually be going on, since it’s non/delayed arrival didn’t result in immediate collapse.
Or is it, as I think the Govt claims, more a situation of some isolated/localised shortages as a result of distribution issues from centrally held stockpiles?
And are the doctors and nurses who have died, dying because of a shortage of PPE, or “just” because hospitals (COVID wards) are very dangerous places to work at the moment and even adequate PPE isn’t a guarantee of safety?
Scotland about to achieve crossover (more care home than hospital deaths in a week)
https://youtu.be/sjc1EIMQIwA
Maybe a little less SunnyD with your breakfast, kid....
Meanwhile, the government's scientific advisers will present their findings to ministers later on whether the public should wear face masks.
Some 25,000 will be tested first, with plans to increase that to 300,000 over the next year.
BBC News - Coronavirus: Study to track infection and immunity levels
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52390970
Diane Abbott’s diplomat son threatened her with scissors and attacked nine emergency workers when hooked on the drug crystal meth.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8246919/The-violent-rampage-Diane-Abbotts-diplomat-son-James-Abbott-Thompson.html
It sounds like an old script of Britain in the EU. Yet it is the Netherlands that has found itself at the heart of the union’s most bitter row during the coronavirus pandemic. As EU leaders meet on Thursday for their fourth virtual crisis summit in seven weeks, the Dutch will once again be in the vanguard of opposition to plans for big spending on the recovery.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/23/how-covid-19-poured-cold-water-on-netherlands-eu-romance
Fewer than the other groups of course, but hardly a ringing endorsement.
Could equally be entitled "How Remain voters are more critical of the Government".
Could be an age effect more than anything else. Could also be down to cities compared to smaller towns and villages.
Nails it.
I wish her and her son well. Sincerely.
Or has PHE been thrown out of the public sector club for being crap ?
Reposting the reply here:
No vaccine that really dangerous is going to make it past the first stage of human trials, if that. He’s more concerned about efficacy, but points out that given in concert with his vaccine, vaccines which elicit even non-neutralising antibodies which bind to other bits of the virus protein spike, provide a lot more immune effector antibody tails, which will be signalling the killer bits of the immune system to target the right thing.
What you don’t want is a load of antibody which doesn’t bind to the virus floating around, which ramp up the killer cells without pointing them in the right direction.
The latter effect is actively promoted by the virus when it bursts open, when infecting our cells. You’ll remember he discussed the nucleocapsid protein contained inside the virus, which promotes an extremely strong antibody response - creating loads of antibody which can’t bind to the live virus, as the protein is hidden inside it, and which contribute to the damaging general inflammation of the lungs.
BBC News - Coronavirus: Reading doctor's death blamed on 'lack of PPE'
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-berkshire-52309654
The allegation is that the ward that Dr Tun worked on had its PPE taken for a Covid-19 ward, and only reappeard after several ward patients developed it, and then only simple masks.
It is notable that very few of the recorded fatalities have been working on ICU or ED or respiratory wards when infected. They were mostly working (like myself) on the non covid side. Dr Riyat in Derby ED was an exception.
On these wards, social distancing is physically impossible and undetected cases are a real risk, until the whole ward including staff are exposed. I am told that psychiatric units are getting quite a few cases now.
PPE does protect staff, but is needed to protect patients from cross infection too. An HCW not changing apron etc between patients is quite a transmission risk. Patients on other wards are right to be wary.
In my hospital ICU and ED are well equipped, and we have a weeks supply of all PPE in stock. Whether mask, gloves and apron are really adequate when treating Covid-19 patients (current UK recommendations) is another question indeed. The hoods and long-sleeved gowns are required for aerosol generating procedures.
I don’t know whether this is so or not. It does seem to me that we are still finding out about it, through research. And I have seen other medical experts warning that it is too early to say how long any vaccine might work for. And it isn’t so long since we were hearing about different strains of the virus in different locations.
That's what I'd say if asked.
They are worse than the Tories who at least do not pretend they are not out for themselves.
I thought the argument was about not having enough kit for those working with COVID-19 patients.
University of Leicester is working on an interesting idea, that works to mop up the virus rather than stimulate antibodies:
https://www.leicestermercury.co.uk/news/leicester-news/university-leicester-scientists-developing-injection-4051193
There is a lot of science going on in real time, alongside a lot of snake oil sales, if it wasn't so high stakes it would be fascinating.
Patients do not however arrive at a hospital with a label on their forehead saying Covid-19. Many present with ambiguous symptoms and signs. A confusional state for example, or simply being breathless. It is only after investigation that we find out if it is a urinary tract infection, worsening heart failure or Covid-19. Hence the importance of rapid, reliable testing.
PPE matters for crossinfection risk too. If we admit 6 undifferentiated patients to a bay, and 1 has it but we don't know, all 6 could have it within a couple of days.
In many ways the non covid wards are the riskiest place to be at the moment. It is Russian roulette.
Regarding PPE ministers keep prattling out how many pieces of PPE they have issues. Yes, but how many were requested? "We've issued you 100 masks" is largely not a good response when the need was 300 masks and gloves and gowns. Its the same "we've increased NHS funding" line which was cover for "we've cut funding to the front line". Or "we're adding 20,000 police officers" as if that makes up for the 26k+ that have already been cut.
The government are quite good at this kind of distraction. And those with tiny brain are more than happy to repeat it as if it was relevant.
"The Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) is expected to indicate that the public should not wear medical face masks but should feel free to cover their faces with scarves or home-made masks."
I seem to remember calling this several days ago.
No U-turn on masks, just down the slip road of face coverings.
I have been sadly waiting, excepting to hear of terrible problems in psychiatry units (which is like another care home, with a much younger, physically fitter profile). And yet there has been deafening silence, which I took to be unexpected good news.
Can I just say this: Piers Morgan - what an arse.
Thank you.
I was there this week. I asked - and was told the above by a consultant.
However, some leave supporters must be very worried about the economy. If the economy is flattened by the lockdown the UK might have to realign with the EU or rejoin it eventually. This is exactly what many leave supporters do not want to happen.
Also, leave and remain supporters may have different values on social issues related to their different views on the EU. These different values may also influence people's views on the response to the epidemic.
Aid budget next? We have people living in poverty in this country.
I got it at the Golden Temple.
It's noteworthy that the same poll shows that the public still on balance think the government is doing a good job, so there is a section of the population that can do nuance.
That section does not include Conservative Leavers, who seem more concerned about defending the government's reputation than saving lives.
A major problem with COVID-19 is the long "incubation" period, with no symptoms.
Apparently next to no-one has been "caught" by heat scanning, for example. The sick guy, staggering around, pouring with sweat, is a character from plague movies.
This thing is being spread by people who feel just fine.
And - lets cut off sending PPE to China. All they would do is... cut off PPE sales in return.
What could possibly be wrong with this excellent idea?
If they were to mutate significantly then the virus itself would likely be ineffective.
(Which is to say that such mutations might well already have occurred, but not reproduced.)
"level", "come clean" etc.
Very Today Programme.
"The UK is embarking on a large-scale study of 300,000 people to find out what proportion of the population has already had the coronavirus and how many may have some immunity to it as a result.
Studies are being undertaken around the world to work out how widespread the infection is. So far, they have found the proportion of people with antibodies showing they have been infected is low. The World Health Organization said this week it appears that only around 2 to 3% of people in the general population had been infected – with or without symptoms.
The results of the new major British study will be crucial for planning a strategic endgame to the pandemic in the UK. Some 25,000 people will be invited to take part in the first wave of the study in England. It is expected it will be extended to 300,000 people over the next 12 months.
All those who take part will provide samples from self-administered swabs of their own nose and mouth and answer questions from a visiting nurse, to determine whether they have the virus at the outset. Over the next year, they will be asked to take further tests every week for the first five weeks, then every month for 12 months."
(Guardian blog)
I fully expect the government to suggest the chattering classes wear masks or soemthing more fashionable for more crowded places. Can I suggest a bird-shaped mask covering the whole face to scare away the miasma. It didn't do any good in 1348, or 1665, but you never know. Masks were disappointing too in 1918, but it made them feel better.
I've been watching stats for Nottingham, my nearest big city, and they seem all over the place. Maybe reporting bottlenecks or just low level noise. So, if I have my numbers right, for new + tested cases, we've had 33,1, 5, 25 in consecutive days.
That 25 is bad, as I thought things were calming down very nicely.
But an arse is still an arse of course.
u Did they void then start afresh or have they suspended and resumed worth all bets in situ.
If its the latter then people who acted fast on Boris info can rightly feel incredibly pissed off.
Edit/ And it's the latter
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-52379111
We appear to be weeks behind Germany.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/18/world/europe/with-broad-random-tests-for-antibodies-germany-seeks-path-out-of-lockdown.html
...Mr. Hoelscher got the idea for the antibody study in the shower. It was March 19, the day before the state of Bavaria announced its lockdown.
“I thought to myself if we’re going into lockdown, we need to start working on an exit strategy now,” he said.
The next day, he said he wrote a short pitch to the Bavarian government. Six hours later, he had the green light. It took another three weeks until the test kits had arrived, a new lab was opened and teams of medics started fanning out across the city...
Still, it does sound as though the study is going to be based on a very accurate test, and with such data, it will be possible to manage the period between the end of lockdown and the availability of a vaccine much more effectively.
(BBC)Scientists at Oxford University are in the process of validating an antibody test, also known as an Elisa test, which will be used in this study.
They are on track to have a "fully validated and an accreditation compliant test" in place by 4 May, according to Prof Derrick Crook, who is among those co-ordinating the programme of work at Oxford University...
I also think that staff returning to work 7 days after resolution of fever, rather than the 14 days recommended by WHO is foolish. I don’t know why our government is so keen on this.
There's a perception that covid-19 is "less fatal than seasonal 'flu for the under-60s, and we don't lock down for that," so surely we can do this?
Infectivity
Problem is R0 (well, Rt - the transmission rate after interventions). In essence, most of the time, you aren't catching seasonal flu, even when someone around is infective. R0 for seasonal flu is around 1.3, and we vaccinate 14 million per year (over 20% of the population). This gives us almost the level we need for herd immunity, anyway (Rt goes to 1.02). Compare to R0 of 3.0 for coid-19 (may be higher).
After 10 transmissions, the index case of seasonal flu has infected 11.4 other people on average (so a clump of 100 sufferers infects a total of 114 others over the season).
After 10 transmissions, the index case of covid-19 has infected 88,572 others on average (so a clump of 100 sufferers infects a total of nearly 9 million others).
Exponential growth is a bastard.
Fatality rate
Say, for the sake of argument, the death rate is only a tenth in our "freed" population. And it is 300 per day when we unlock (most of which are elderly). It would equate to only 30 per day in the "freed" population.
Deaths doubling every 3-4 days means 120 per day after one week.
After 2 weeks, just under 500 per day.
After 3 weeks, 2000 per day (and, remember, these are the "freed" population).
Ah, but won't we hit herd immunity amongst this population? (I may be reaching for straws, but let's check to see if it's a straw or a vine)
The problem comes from saturation of the NHS (again). We escaped it this time, probably be a decent factor - but time is so crucial against an exponential rise (if we were only reaching 25% saturation of the NHS, then if we'd waited more than 7 days before imposing the restrictions we did, we'd have blasted past the maximum capacity while still accelerating. Exponential growth is a bastard).
Get past saturation, and those who need hospitalisation - don't get it. So what happens to you if you need hospital help and it's unavailable? One would expect your chance of death would go up quite significantly (otherwise, well, you didn't need hospital, did you?). If one third of those who need hospitalisation and don't get it end up dying, and the hospitalisation rate is compatible with an overall 0.66% IFR (which may be significantly too low, from the report yesterday) -
Over 250,000 of the "freed" population will die
Okay, shift to only under fifties. (So I stay in the population). It improves - to a degree.
Over 140,000 of them die.
Okay, only people up to their thirties.
Over 70,000 die.
Which looks better - but only in comparison to what we've seen before. If 70,000 were to die in "normal" circumstances, we'd be horrified.
Doesn't look to be a goer. Bugger.
This poll simply reflects that
They record cutting around in dress uniforms with all your medal ribbons etc as a bit.... American
Cammo is the non-dress uniform in the army - the you-pull-it-on-no-ironing stuff.
I'd have to look up how fast they mutate compared with this thing (and they won't have been studied in the same detail), but there are other reasons for their success, and lack of immune memory, which don't apply to this virus. For example:
A Human Coronavirus Responsible for the Common Cold Massively Kills Dendritic Cells but Not Monocytes
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3416289/
...Human coronaviruses are associated with upper respiratory tract infections that occasionally spread to the lungs and other organs. Although airway epithelial cells represent an important target for infection, the respiratory epithelium is also composed of an elaborate network of dendritic cells (DCs) that are essential sentinels of the immune system, sensing pathogens and presenting foreign antigens to T lymphocytes. In this report, we show that in vitro infection by human coronavirus 229E (HCoV-229E) induces massive cytopathic effects in DCs, including the formation of large syncytia and cell death within only few hours. In contrast, monocytes are much more resistant to infection and cytopathic effects despite similar expression levels of CD13, the membrane receptor for HCoV-229E. While the differentiation of monocytes into DCs in the presence of granulocyte-macrophage colony-stimulating factor and interleukin-4 requires 5 days, only 24 h are sufficient for these cytokines to sensitize monocytes to cell death and cytopathic effects when infected by HCoV-229E. Cell death induced by HCoV-229E is independent of TRAIL, FasL, tumor necrosis factor alpha, and caspase activity, indicating that viral replication is directly responsible for the observed cytopathic effects. The consequence of DC death at the early stage of HCoV-229E infection may have an impact on the early control of viral dissemination and on the establishment of long-lasting immune memory, since people can be reinfected multiple times by HCoV-229E....
We know from the earlier SARS outbreak that antibodies to that persisted in the blood for over a decade.