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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Can the Tories manage the lockdown endgame without alienating their key voting group – the over 70s?
GE2017 might seem a long time ago but TMay’s government saw on that day what can happen when the oldies are hacked off. It might be recalled that there was marked decline in the numbers of over 70s actually voting following the fury over the “Dementia Tax”. The turnout change amongst the oldies was far greater than other age groups.
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https://www.kalzumeus.com/2020/04/21/japan-coronavirus/
Separating the population into the over and under 70s (in fact, arguably, it really should be the over and under 60s) and locking the older fraction away for the duration seems the least worst option, given what we know of the mortality patterns of the illness - 96% of all deaths, according to up-to-date figures from Italy, are amongst the over 60s.
Nor is all the burden placed upon the old under these circumstances: restarting the economy, which is going to have to be done progressively if we aren't all to perish, basically, entails withdrawal of measures like the furlough scheme and commanding younger people to go back to work and take their chances. Some of those people who would otherwise have survived if they stayed at home are going to die of Covid-19 as a direct result of that decision.
It's bloody horrible and it's not fair, but viruses don't know anything about fairness.
https://twitter.com/spursofficial/status/1253956914083487745?s=21
Grim
They certainly aren't going to be blaming Boris if they have stay put a few weeks more. They are smart enough to know that, if it is longer than that, it is down to the science.
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1254022414058631170?s=19
If that's the case, there goes the so-called "herd immunity."
LOLs. I am 61. Best make it the over and under 65s ...
Merely reported today. Some of them occurred in March.
The actual comparable daily deaths is diminishing still, and in encouraging fashion.
The stats are grim because they show a rise, which has been occurring for three days. No overall decline would be expected to be linear but, even so, every sane and sensible (not you, obvs) person will be a touch disheartened by today's figures.
Show what is happening, to a fair degree
It looks like what they’ve said is that the level of antibodies you get afterwards appears to be variable and in some cases may not be enough to protect you from a second infection.
Decent and reliable antibody tests would help indicate protection or lack of it, as would more studies.
He is a danger to all Americans and the world. Plain and simple.
https://mobile.twitter.com/cricketwyvern/status/1254041723526922241?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed&ref_url=https://politicalbetting.vanillacommunity.com/discussion/8648/politicalbetting-com-blog-archive-getting-rid-of-the-ftpa-won-t-be-that-easy/p7
By reading across the diagonals (colour-coded), you can make comparisons meaningfully. The brick-red colour is the earliest that data can be deemed sufficiently reliable to be truly meaningful, and the indications are of a downward trend.
If locking up the over 70's is the right thing...then do it....
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-uk-hospital-deaths-rise-by-813-taking-total-to-20-319-11978678
"Dr Paul Hunter, professor of medicine at the University of East Anglia and an adviser to the World Health Organisation, said the UK could end up having one of the highest mortality rates in Europe.
Speaking to PA, he warned: "Our deaths are increasing more rapidly than any other country really apart from the US. But the US is still a long way behind us in terms of deaths per one million of the population."
This will put a damper on the calls for lockdown to ease.
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/881292/2020-04-25_COVID-19_Press_Conference_Slides__5_.pptx.pdf
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/881291/2020-04-25_COVID-19_Press_Conference_Data__4_.xlsx
and NHS England stats at -
https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
7 day cumulative trend still going down. I've removed the trendline because it was shit, from Monday I'm off work so will spend some time looking into a linear regression model for day 2 and day 3 extrapolated to day 7 and day 14. I'll also try and do a forecasting model based on publicly available data, but I'm not sure how far I'll get.
On the issue of late reporting, only 68% of reported deaths were from the past 7 days, that compares to ~92% on any other day. The issue with late reporting is that dents public confidence in the lockdown measures which are working. If someone without data experience looked at the headline figures they would assume that nothing was changing, but we've gone from ~700 deaths per day in England to ~ 500 deaths per day and falling. I think the 20th will be another mini-peak like the 15th, but the overall trend is very clear now. We are winning this war, just a lot more slowly than we would have liked.
With all of the late reporting it looks like the 10 days from the 2nd to the 11th were absolutely horrific, which lines up to around 3-4 weeks after Cheltenham and the final large gatherings took place. That week now looks absolutely awful and questions need to be asked SAGE, the government and other advisors as to why they were allowed to take place when so many other countries were locking down.
Finally the week-on-week change in deaths, it's still a nice downwards trend:
Hell, even I like it a little bit.
105 of the deaths occurred yesterday.
236 occurred on the 23rd of April
66 on the 22nd of April
37 on the 21st of April
23 on the 20th of April
8 on the 19th of April
11 on the 18th of April
7 on the 17th of April
3 on the 16th, 6 on the 15th, 2 on the 14th, 5 on the 13th, 3 on the 12th, 2 on the 11th, 5 on the 10th, 9 on the 9th, 14 on the 8th, 14 on the 7th, 22 on the 6th, and so on.
"Britain has announced a further 813 coronavirus victims today, taking the total number of fatalities in the UK to 20,319.
The grim milestone - which also saw the number of people testing positive for coronavirus rise by 4,913 to 148,377 - came as the coronavirus lockdown continued into its fifth weekend and the government faced calls for greater transparency over the scientific advice given to ministers on the outbreak.
In reality, deaths in the UK from coronavirus probably topped 20,000 several days ago.
The figure does not include deaths in care homes, which the World Health Organisation (WHO) estimates could account for half of all deaths in Europe."
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EWc_SQ6XsAM-_6v?format=png&name=medium
But then I teach about 150 or so...
https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
https://nypost.com/2020/04/25/kim-jong-un-in-vegetative-state-japanese-media-report-says/
That would give the feckless scientists something to think about.
Andy’s posts are very helpful, and I am greatly reassured by the way the numbers are trending, as well as the least estimates from Imperial.
Some form of easing from May 10 is absolutely the right thing to do; maybe even a partial reopening of the primary school system.
Encouragement for over 60s to observe extra measures through May would of course be fine.
I believe we locked down too late (said so at the time and was criticised on here) and we are now to slow to *communicate* the likely easing of lock down.
The first has cost us unnecessary deaths, the latter will cost unnecessary economic damage.
Govt planning and comms have been really underwhelming, but they do get a C pass for avoiding an NHS meltdown - just in the nick of time if you listen to Ferguson.
(image from David Paton)
That’s about the same I think as the Hong Kong Flu of 1968, I think - but our population was a bit smaller then.
Interestingly, that line roughly coincides with:
- Voting Remain/LibDem (ie: the Kilimanjaro climbers all voted Remain)
- No serious recent intimation of mortality (the risk-averse have all been in hospital in the past year or two)
- Technically being a Boomer (crudely: if you were born after the Blitz, you think you know better than the PM how to look after yourself and others)
I'd also observe that the most prevalent form of gratuitous checking on others is by the Kilmanjaro cohort of over-60s on the over-77 cohort.
In terms of the 2017 general election, the biggest swing from 2017 to 2019 was with 50 to 59 year olds who voted only 47% Tory in 2017 compared to 49% Tory in 2019 and 40 to 49 year olds also went from a 5% Labour lead in 2017 to a 6% Tory lead in 2019. Over 70s were 69% Tory in 2017 and only 67% Tory in 2019.
The reason May's dementia tax was more unpopular with the middle aged than the old was of course that is the middle aged who want a sizeable inheritance, once the old have died what happens to their estate is of less direct interest to them. Boris understood how unpopular it was with middle aged voters and opposed it in 2017 and did not go near any similar plans in 2019.
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2017/06/13/how-britain-voted-2017-general-election
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1SV_NG2JENO6G6YH9rUd5rYO4T-SgvBcd1fyQBdw6Skc/edit?usp=sharing
https://twitter.com/IainDale/status/1254072462482067456?s=20
1. While the number of new infections continues to (broadly) trend downwards, it's come off less quickly than I would have expected. This is probably partly due to massive undercounting at the peak (56% peak postive test rate, against 4% now), and partly because lockdowns have not been as severe as (for example) China.
2. The number of people in ICU with CV-19 has roughly halved from the peak, and the number of offficially active cases is also declining now.
3. Some massive regions of Italy are basically CV-19 free, while Lombardy continues to see 1,000 official new cases a day. Big cities, with lots of people in apartment complexes. and dense public transport systems, are an utter nightmare.
And for those who want to know the difference lockdowns make, look at Rome and Milan. In the former, the lockdown happened early enough to make a difference. In the latter, it came too late.
I was working on it yesterday, so you'll need to add today's data yourself.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1iGzAkLGelUHStKYxmYL-gxp_kWonYMLVY3C3qejExLU/edit?usp=sharing
edit: Beaten to it by MaxPB I see, but if you're interested you can see my analysis too.
It is relevant however in that the govt (Dom) was briefing that it would follow the science and that the UK needed no lessons from Italy etc.
Then, abruptly “the science changed”.
February was a wasted month, and Dom’s fingers are in there somewhere.
2nd day in a row. Never mind the quality, feel the width. Lets just get the numbers up to try and meet a spurious target to damp down political criticism. Never mind making sure that the people who really need testing in social care homes get priority.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2020/04/24/government-website-runs-coronavirus-home-testing-kits-within/
This is how Estate Agents are handling it:
https://www.livingroom.gg/news/25-04-2020-government-and-livingroom-protocol
Comments from the Chief Minister suggest that at the back of the queue are pubs and nightclubs, and the very back, travel restrictions.
https://www.eveningexpress.co.uk/news/uk/history-of-major-virus-outbreaks-in-the-uk-in-recent-times/