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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Can You Guess Which Country It is Yet?

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited April 2020 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Can You Guess Which Country It is Yet?

Imagine a European country. A militarily successful one. One which, however annoying – and, oh, did it make a nuisance of itself in many varied ways – could not be ignored. One led by a self-regarding, popular leader (with a penchant for mistresses) around whom government revolved. A leader who, after a period of stasis, took action, to the delight of those around him. A leader who seemed set fair to revive the country’s fortunes.

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Comments

  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    Zut alors!
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774
    I thought she was going to go with Putin's Russia...
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,124
    Anti Boris thread header version umpteen to start the week - yup nothing really does change........
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,165
    Go on. Admit it. You thought I was describing Brexit Britain and its future.

    Err, no, I didn't.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,960
    Not to go all Godwin on everyone first thing in the morning, but my first thought was 1930s Germany and the Treaty of Versailles. The only bit that didn't seem to fit was "penchant for mistresses"
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,586
    rcs1000 said:

    I thought she was going to go with Putin's Russia...

    Or a prediction of Mexican hegemony over North America ....
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,586
    Conclusive demonstration of the role of the proofreading segment in the acovid genome:

    The coronavirus proofreading exoribonuclease mediates extensive viral recombination
    https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.23.057786v1
    ... RNA recombination is required during normal CoV replication for subgenomic mRNA (sgmRNA) synthesis and generates defective viral genomes (DVGs) of unknown function. However, the determinants and patterns of CoV recombination are unknown. Here, we show that divergent β-CoVs SARS-CoV-2, MERS-CoV, and murine hepatitis virus (MHV) perform extensive RNA recombination in culture, generating similar patterns of recombination junctions and diverse populations of DVGs and sgmRNAs. We demonstrate that the CoV proofreading nonstructural protein (nsp14) 3-to-5 exoribonuclease (nsp14-ExoN) is required for normal CoV recombination and that its genetic inactivation causes significantly decreased frequency and altered patterns of recombination in both infected cells and released virions. Thus, nsp14-ExoN is a key determinant of both high fidelity CoV replication and recombination, and thereby represents a highly-conserved and vulnerable target for virus inhibition and attenuation.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,328
    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    I thought she was going to go with Putin's Russia...

    Or a prediction of Mexican hegemony over North America ....
    I thought, until the last bit, it was Hitler's Germany.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,586
    From a thread on excess on the underestimating if Covid deaths (and remember that reported numbers for total deaths are reported at leat a week in arrears):

    https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1254462206403588096
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,961
    Nigelb said:

    Conclusive demonstration of the role of the proofreading segment in the acovid genome:

    The coronavirus proofreading exoribonuclease mediates extensive viral recombination
    https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.23.057786v1
    ... RNA recombination is required during normal CoV replication for subgenomic mRNA (sgmRNA) synthesis and generates defective viral genomes (DVGs) of unknown function. However, the determinants and patterns of CoV recombination are unknown. Here, we show that divergent β-CoVs SARS-CoV-2, MERS-CoV, and murine hepatitis virus (MHV) perform extensive RNA recombination in culture, generating similar patterns of recombination junctions and diverse populations of DVGs and sgmRNAs. We demonstrate that the CoV proofreading nonstructural protein (nsp14) 3-to-5 exoribonuclease (nsp14-ExoN) is required for normal CoV recombination and that its genetic inactivation causes significantly decreased frequency and altered patterns of recombination in both infected cells and released virions. Thus, nsp14-ExoN is a key determinant of both high fidelity CoV replication and recombination, and thereby represents a highly-conserved and vulnerable target for virus inhibition and attenuation.

    Looks like that work might have wider application for attacking all coronavirus types?

    It is looking like many, many years of virology research is now being squashed into a few months. Good job, Science Guys and Gals.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,979
    Nigelb said:

    Conclusive demonstration of the role of the proofreading segment in the acovid genome:

    The coronavirus proofreading exoribonuclease mediates extensive viral recombination
    https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.23.057786v1
    ... RNA recombination is required during normal CoV replication for subgenomic mRNA (sgmRNA) synthesis and generates defective viral genomes (DVGs) of unknown function. However, the determinants and patterns of CoV recombination are unknown. Here, we show that divergent β-CoVs SARS-CoV-2, MERS-CoV, and murine hepatitis virus (MHV) perform extensive RNA recombination in culture, generating similar patterns of recombination junctions and diverse populations of DVGs and sgmRNAs. We demonstrate that the CoV proofreading nonstructural protein (nsp14) 3-to-5 exoribonuclease (nsp14-ExoN) is required for normal CoV recombination and that its genetic inactivation causes significantly decreased frequency and altered patterns of recombination in both infected cells and released virions. Thus, nsp14-ExoN is a key determinant of both high fidelity CoV replication and recombination, and thereby represents a highly-conserved and vulnerable target for virus inhibition and attenuation.

    That's very promising, not only in providing a target, but in suggesting, because of its use of a proofreading protein, that significant mutations are less likely and therefore longer lasting vaccines and antibodies more likely.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    No I didn't feel like you were describing Britain. Very little of that resembled Britain.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,586
    edited April 2020

    Nigelb said:

    Conclusive demonstration of the role of the proofreading segment in the acovid genome:

    The coronavirus proofreading exoribonuclease mediates extensive viral recombination
    https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.23.057786v1
    ... RNA recombination is required during normal CoV replication for subgenomic mRNA (sgmRNA) synthesis and generates defective viral genomes (DVGs) of unknown function. However, the determinants and patterns of CoV recombination are unknown. Here, we show that divergent β-CoVs SARS-CoV-2, MERS-CoV, and murine hepatitis virus (MHV) perform extensive RNA recombination in culture, generating similar patterns of recombination junctions and diverse populations of DVGs and sgmRNAs. We demonstrate that the CoV proofreading nonstructural protein (nsp14) 3-to-5 exoribonuclease (nsp14-ExoN) is required for normal CoV recombination and that its genetic inactivation causes significantly decreased frequency and altered patterns of recombination in both infected cells and released virions. Thus, nsp14-ExoN is a key determinant of both high fidelity CoV replication and recombination, and thereby represents a highly-conserved and vulnerable target for virus inhibition and attenuation.

    Looks like that work might have wider application for attacking all coronavirus types?

    It is looking like many, many years of virology research is now being squashed into a few months. Good job, Science Guys and Gals.
    Well the particular error correction mechanism (and its experimental inactivation) was only demonstrated in the Covid and MERS viruses - though I think it exists also in the original SARS virus.
    It’s certainly not in all coronaviruses: “ The b-coronavirus murine hepatitis virus (MHV) lacking nsp14-ExoN activity has significantly decreased and altered distribution of RNA recombination events..”. Like this one, they have their own different proofreading mechanisms, with different functionality.

    It’s a very interesting result, but I don’t expect any therapeutic arriving particularly soon. A vaccine seems a better bet in the short term.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,586
    A thread on PI results for the first Chinese vaccine. The data look good (and it seems to provide protection against various strains evolved outside of China, too).
    But being an ‘old fashioned” inactivated virus vaccine, will be relatively expensive and slow to manufacture in quantity (though many countries have the necessary plants).

    https://twitter.com/florian_krammer/status/1252940519942098944
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,328
    edited April 2020
    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Conclusive demonstration of the role of the proofreading segment in the acovid genome:

    The coronavirus proofreading exoribonuclease mediates extensive viral recombination
    https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.23.057786v1
    ... RNA recombination is required during normal CoV replication for subgenomic mRNA (sgmRNA) synthesis and generates defective viral genomes (DVGs) of unknown function. However, the determinants and patterns of CoV recombination are unknown. Here, we show that divergent β-CoVs SARS-CoV-2, MERS-CoV, and murine hepatitis virus (MHV) perform extensive RNA recombination in culture, generating similar patterns of recombination junctions and diverse populations of DVGs and sgmRNAs. We demonstrate that the CoV proofreading nonstructural protein (nsp14) 3-to-5 exoribonuclease (nsp14-ExoN) is required for normal CoV recombination and that its genetic inactivation causes significantly decreased frequency and altered patterns of recombination in both infected cells and released virions. Thus, nsp14-ExoN is a key determinant of both high fidelity CoV replication and recombination, and thereby represents a highly-conserved and vulnerable target for virus inhibition and attenuation.

    Looks like that work might have wider application for attacking all coronavirus types?

    It is looking like many, many years of virology research is now being squashed into a few months. Good job, Science Guys and Gals.
    Well the particular error correction mechanism (and its experimental inactivation) was only demonstrated in the Covid and MERS viruses - though I think it exists also in the original SARS virus.
    It’s certainly not in all coronaviruses: “ The b-coronavirus murine hepatitis virus (MHV) lacking nsp14-ExoN activity has significantly decreased and altered distribution of RNA recombination events..”. Like this one, they have their own different proofreading mechanisms, with different functionality.

    It’s a very interesting result, but I don’t expect any therapeutic arriving particularly soon. A vaccine seems a better bet in the short term.
    So this protein both ensures fidelity of RNA replication, and increased recombination. Surely, the latter is potentially bad news for a vaccine if it increases the frequency of recombination events for the RNA coding for the S protein?

    If this particular protein is reasonably widespread in the betacoronaviruses, it also means that there should be a highish probability of more zoonotic novel coronavirus diseases emerging because of recombination events.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,586
    The WHO statement from a couple of days back that there is “no evidence” that vaccines will provide protection seemed wrong at the time, and even more so now.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 5,997
    Endillion said:

    Not to go all Godwin on everyone first thing in the morning, but my first thought was 1930s Germany and the Treaty of Versailles. The only bit that didn't seem to fit was "penchant for mistresses"

    There was Geli Raubal
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,328
    Nigelb said:

    The WHO statement from a couple of days back that there is “no evidence” that vaccines will provide protection seemed wrong at the time, and even more so now.

    Yep. A lot of what the WHO is saying seems wrong. Like it is not aerosol-borne. Or no mention of the faecal-oral route of transmission. Or that you should take your gloves off first when doffing PPE (PHE and CDC also get this wrong, so WHO is not alone on that one).
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,586
    TimT said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Conclusive demonstration of the role of the proofreading segment in the acovid genome:

    The coronavirus proofreading exoribonuclease mediates extensive viral recombination
    https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.23.057786v1
    ... RNA recombination is required during normal CoV replication for subgenomic mRNA (sgmRNA) synthesis and generates defective viral genomes (DVGs) of unknown function. However, the determinants and patterns of CoV recombination are unknown. Here, we show that divergent β-CoVs SARS-CoV-2, MERS-CoV, and murine hepatitis virus (MHV) perform extensive RNA recombination in culture, generating similar patterns of recombination junctions and diverse populations of DVGs and sgmRNAs. We demonstrate that the CoV proofreading nonstructural protein (nsp14) 3-to-5 exoribonuclease (nsp14-ExoN) is required for normal CoV recombination and that its genetic inactivation causes significantly decreased frequency and altered patterns of recombination in both infected cells and released virions. Thus, nsp14-ExoN is a key determinant of both high fidelity CoV replication and recombination, and thereby represents a highly-conserved and vulnerable target for virus inhibition and attenuation.

    Looks like that work might have wider application for attacking all coronavirus types?

    It is looking like many, many years of virology research is now being squashed into a few months. Good job, Science Guys and Gals.
    Well the particular error correction mechanism (and its experimental inactivation) was only demonstrated in the Covid and MERS viruses - though I think it exists also in the original SARS virus.
    It’s certainly not in all coronaviruses: “ The b-coronavirus murine hepatitis virus (MHV) lacking nsp14-ExoN activity has significantly decreased and altered distribution of RNA recombination events..”. Like this one, they have their own different proofreading mechanisms, with different functionality.

    It’s a very interesting result, but I don’t expect any therapeutic arriving particularly soon. A vaccine seems a better bet in the short term.
    So this protein both ensures fidelity of RNA replication, and increased recombination. Surely, the latter is potentially bad news for a vaccine if it increases the frequency of recombination events for the RNA coding for the S protein?
    Recombination is absolutely needed for viral evolutionary success - look how much more successful this one is than MERS. The workings of this RNA mechanism aren’t fully understood, but its proofreading control of that recombination is evidently very effective.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 5,997
    Barnesian said:

    Nigelb said:

    Conclusive demonstration of the role of the proofreading segment in the acovid genome:

    The coronavirus proofreading exoribonuclease mediates extensive viral recombination
    https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.23.057786v1
    ... RNA recombination is required during normal CoV replication for subgenomic mRNA (sgmRNA) synthesis and generates defective viral genomes (DVGs) of unknown function. However, the determinants and patterns of CoV recombination are unknown. Here, we show that divergent β-CoVs SARS-CoV-2, MERS-CoV, and murine hepatitis virus (MHV) perform extensive RNA recombination in culture, generating similar patterns of recombination junctions and diverse populations of DVGs and sgmRNAs. We demonstrate that the CoV proofreading nonstructural protein (nsp14) 3-to-5 exoribonuclease (nsp14-ExoN) is required for normal CoV recombination and that its genetic inactivation causes significantly decreased frequency and altered patterns of recombination in both infected cells and released virions. Thus, nsp14-ExoN is a key determinant of both high fidelity CoV replication and recombination, and thereby represents a highly-conserved and vulnerable target for virus inhibition and attenuation.

    That's very promising, not only in providing a target, but in suggesting, because of its use of a proofreading protein, that significant mutations are less likely and therefore longer lasting vaccines and antibodies more likely.
    I watched (about half of) Michael Farzan's lecture yesterday. He reckoned that if it does mutate, future mutations will tend to become less effective.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,586
    TimT said:

    Nigelb said:

    The WHO statement from a couple of days back that there is “no evidence” that vaccines will provide protection seemed wrong at the time, and even more so now.

    Yep. A lot of what the WHO is saying seems wrong. Like it is not aerosol-borne. Or no mention of the faecal-oral route of transmission. Or that you should take your gloves off first when doffing PPE (PHE and CDC also get this wrong, so WHO is not alone on that one).
    The WHO does very valuable work. Providing the “best scientific advice” in real time doesn’t appear to be their metier, though.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,082
    Nigelb said:

    The WHO statement from a couple of days back that there is “no evidence” that vaccines will provide protection seemed wrong at the time, and even more so now.

    "No evidence" that vaccines will have long lasting effect simply means that there is no evidence. It is a statement calling for proper science, not nihilism.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,961

    No I didn't feel like you were describing Britain. Very little of that resembled Britain.

    Not least the numbers of dead!!
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,961
    Foxy said:

    Nigelb said:

    The WHO statement from a couple of days back that there is “no evidence” that vaccines will provide protection seemed wrong at the time, and even more so now.

    "No evidence" that vaccines will have long lasting effect simply means that there is no evidence. It is a statement calling for proper science, not nihilism.
    "Not yet evidence" would have been rather less open to the charge of nihilism!
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,724

    No I didn't feel like you were describing Britain. Very little of that resembled Britain.

    I wasn't sure until I got to the bit about numbers. I didn't realise pre-Revolutionary France had made such significant changes in it's foreign policies, though.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,879
    It does look like the back to workers have won the cabinet struggle. The next trick will be to persuade people to do it. That will be one hell of a task.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,677
    I knew straight from the "militarily successful" bit that it was not England.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,961
    Hey, senior media guys, you following this thread? You might learn stuff about coronaviruses.....
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,094

    Barnesian said:

    Nigelb said:

    Conclusive demonstration of the role of the proofreading segment in the acovid genome:

    The coronavirus proofreading exoribonuclease mediates extensive viral recombination
    https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.23.057786v1
    ... RNA recombination is required during normal CoV replication for subgenomic mRNA (sgmRNA) synthesis and generates defective viral genomes (DVGs) of unknown function. However, the determinants and patterns of CoV recombination are unknown. Here, we show that divergent β-CoVs SARS-CoV-2, MERS-CoV, and murine hepatitis virus (MHV) perform extensive RNA recombination in culture, generating similar patterns of recombination junctions and diverse populations of DVGs and sgmRNAs. We demonstrate that the CoV proofreading nonstructural protein (nsp14) 3-to-5 exoribonuclease (nsp14-ExoN) is required for normal CoV recombination and that its genetic inactivation causes significantly decreased frequency and altered patterns of recombination in both infected cells and released virions. Thus, nsp14-ExoN is a key determinant of both high fidelity CoV replication and recombination, and thereby represents a highly-conserved and vulnerable target for virus inhibition and attenuation.

    That's very promising, not only in providing a target, but in suggesting, because of its use of a proofreading protein, that significant mutations are less likely and therefore longer lasting vaccines and antibodies more likely.
    I watched (about half of) Michael Farzan's lecture yesterday. He reckoned that if it does mutate, future mutations will tend to become less effective.
    Effective at what?

    Most mutations (that spread) tend to be more virulent but less severe
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,776
    France did, though, remain top dog on the Continent, until 1870. And, probably had the world's fiercest army, up till then.
  • TGOHF666TGOHF666 Posts: 2,052
    https://twitter.com/heraldscotland/status/1254655177476444162?s=21


    THE SNP is so rotten it may have to be replaced by a new independence party, its former deputy leader has said
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,082
    Nigelb said:

    TimT said:

    Nigelb said:

    The WHO statement from a couple of days back that there is “no evidence” that vaccines will provide protection seemed wrong at the time, and even more so now.

    Yep. A lot of what the WHO is saying seems wrong. Like it is not aerosol-borne. Or no mention of the faecal-oral route of transmission. Or that you should take your gloves off first when doffing PPE (PHE and CDC also get this wrong, so WHO is not alone on that one).
    The WHO does very valuable work. Providing the “best scientific advice” in real time doesn’t appear to be their metier, though.
    WHO is like all international organisations imperfect, bureaucratic and politically influenced. That is pretty inevitable, but if it didn't exist we would need to reinvent it. Ditto the UN, the IMF, the World Bank, the European Union.

  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,038
    FPT - the most dangerous think I might do post lockdown is take the train.

    It doesn't matter what people say. There are plenty of people (usually men) who insist on going into work when not feeling well and who don't cover their mouths when coughing or blow their noses when sneezing discreetly. Instead, they insist on clearing their throats loudly right next to others. They often don't bother to wash or wipe their hands after either.

    Given the high-density seating on most SWR commuter trains (and the close packing of rows) it's that which I'd be most concerned about.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688

    FPT - the most dangerous think I might do post lockdown is take the train.

    It doesn't matter what people say. There are plenty of people (usually men) who insist on going into work when not feeling well and who don't cover their mouths when coughing or blow their noses when sneezing discreetly. Instead, they insist on clearing their throats loudly right next to others. They often don't bother to wash or wipe their hands after either.

    Given the high-density seating on most SWR commuter trains (and the close packing of rows) it's that which I'd be most concerned about.

    I've been using trains all through lockdown and have a carriage all to myself. I wipe everything down and use a face mask for the transit.

    Not the slightest chance of catching a virus on there.

    Supermarkets are WAY more dangerous.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,038
    Sean_F said:

    France did, though, remain top dog on the Continent, until 1870. And, probably had the world's fiercest army, up till then.

    Except when tested the Prussian Army turned out to be even better.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 4,199

    Foxy said:

    Nigelb said:

    The WHO statement from a couple of days back that there is “no evidence” that vaccines will provide protection seemed wrong at the time, and even more so now.

    "No evidence" that vaccines will have long lasting effect simply means that there is no evidence. It is a statement calling for proper science, not nihilism.
    "Not yet evidence" would have been rather less open to the charge of nihilism!
    I think people should be more careful with the use of phrases like "no evidence"

    I don't think it's helpful to use the same words for things with wildly different probabilities eg

    "there's no evidence that a vaccine will give long-lasting immunity"


    "there's no evidence that injecting disinfectant is an effective treatment"

    Makes it sound like there is equal uncertainty about both.

    Better to say:
    There is no guarantee that an effective vaccine will become available.

    And
    Injecting disinfectant is a stupid idea, and we're not going to waste time proving it even if asked to do so by Trump because we have to devote resources to investigating less moronic treatment possibilities.

  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    Nigelb said:

    A thread on PI results for the first Chinese vaccine. The data look good (and it seems to provide protection against various strains evolved outside of China, too).
    But being an ‘old fashioned” inactivated virus vaccine, will be relatively expensive and slow to manufacture in quantity (though many countries have the necessary plants).

    https://twitter.com/florian_krammer/status/1252940519942098944

    And yet someone on here yesterday lampooned the idea that Asia might be ahead of the game.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Nigelb said:

    From a thread on excess on the underestimating if Covid deaths (and remember that reported numbers for total deaths are reported at leat a week in arrears):

    https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1254462206403588096

    I don't know where he is getting the Sweden figures from, they were only updated to the 16th of April when I last looked at they were obviously lagged.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,094

    FPT - the most dangerous think I might do post lockdown is take the train.

    It doesn't matter what people say. There are plenty of people (usually men) who insist on going into work when not feeling well and who don't cover their mouths when coughing or blow their noses when sneezing discreetly. Instead, they insist on clearing their throats loudly right next to others. They often don't bother to wash or wipe their hands after either.

    Given the high-density seating on most SWR commuter trains (and the close packing of rows) it's that which I'd be most concerned about.

    I've been using trains all through lockdown and have a carriage all to myself. I wipe everything down and use a face mask for the transit.

    Not the slightest chance of catching a virus on there.

    Supermarkets are WAY more dangerous.
    Which bit of 'stay at home' do writers find so difficult to understand?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,038
    Interesting article.

    Surely a key point (given how large, weighty, wealthy and important France is within Europe today, and a secondary leader of the EU) is that you really have to be going some to break the advantages that size, demographics, geography and the national integrity of the state give you to jeapordise your position permanently.

    France also suffered many other subsequent revolutions, had its industrial north ravaged in one world war and was wholly occupied in another.

    So the UK is rather likely to continue to be a successful country and a key European player in the long term.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    IanB2 said:

    FPT - the most dangerous think I might do post lockdown is take the train.

    It doesn't matter what people say. There are plenty of people (usually men) who insist on going into work when not feeling well and who don't cover their mouths when coughing or blow their noses when sneezing discreetly. Instead, they insist on clearing their throats loudly right next to others. They often don't bother to wash or wipe their hands after either.

    Given the high-density seating on most SWR commuter trains (and the close packing of rows) it's that which I'd be most concerned about.

    I've been using trains all through lockdown and have a carriage all to myself. I wipe everything down and use a face mask for the transit.

    Not the slightest chance of catching a virus on there.

    Supermarkets are WAY more dangerous.
    Which bit of 'stay at home' do writers find so difficult to understand?
    Dunno but I fit the Gov't guidelines on travel, which I'm not divulging here, so bog off.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,038

    Nigelb said:

    A thread on PI results for the first Chinese vaccine. The data look good (and it seems to provide protection against various strains evolved outside of China, too).
    But being an ‘old fashioned” inactivated virus vaccine, will be relatively expensive and slow to manufacture in quantity (though many countries have the necessary plants).

    https://twitter.com/florian_krammer/status/1252940519942098944

    And yet someone on here yesterday lampooned the idea that Asia might be ahead of the game.
    I'd take it with a pinch of salt.

    The Chinese state have a huge vested interest in being seen to come up with the cure to a virus they know they are seen to be partly responsible for and failing to contain.

    I'd want to see independent tests from a reliable 3rd party (or multiple parties corroborating the same) before I got excited.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Nigelb said:

    A thread on PI results for the first Chinese vaccine. The data look good (and it seems to provide protection against various strains evolved outside of China, too).
    But being an ‘old fashioned” inactivated virus vaccine, will be relatively expensive and slow to manufacture in quantity (though many countries have the necessary plants).

    https://twitter.com/florian_krammer/status/1252940519942098944

    And yet someone on here yesterday lampooned the idea that Asia might be ahead of the game.
    Considering almost every possible opinion on anything topical is said here that is a rather meaningless truism. If everything everyone ever wrote on here was true then we'd live in both the world as it is and the world through the looking glass simultaneously.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,038

    FPT - the most dangerous think I might do post lockdown is take the train.

    It doesn't matter what people say. There are plenty of people (usually men) who insist on going into work when not feeling well and who don't cover their mouths when coughing or blow their noses when sneezing discreetly. Instead, they insist on clearing their throats loudly right next to others. They often don't bother to wash or wipe their hands after either.

    Given the high-density seating on most SWR commuter trains (and the close packing of rows) it's that which I'd be most concerned about.

    I've been using trains all through lockdown and have a carriage all to myself. I wipe everything down and use a face mask for the transit.

    Not the slightest chance of catching a virus on there.

    Supermarkets are WAY more dangerous.
    I couldn't disagree with you more.

    Your first paragraph ignores the fact I was talking about post-lockdown, not now.

    Your second paragraph is demonstrably untrue and your third simply an assertion.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    kamski said:

    Foxy said:

    Nigelb said:

    The WHO statement from a couple of days back that there is “no evidence” that vaccines will provide protection seemed wrong at the time, and even more so now.

    "No evidence" that vaccines will have long lasting effect simply means that there is no evidence. It is a statement calling for proper science, not nihilism.
    "Not yet evidence" would have been rather less open to the charge of nihilism!
    I think people should be more careful with the use of phrases like "no evidence"

    I don't think it's helpful to use the same words for things with wildly different probabilities eg

    "there's no evidence that a vaccine will give long-lasting immunity"


    "there's no evidence that injecting disinfectant is an effective treatment"

    Makes it sound like there is equal uncertainty about both.

    Better to say:
    There is no guarantee that an effective vaccine will become available.

    And
    Injecting disinfectant is a stupid idea, and we're not going to waste time proving it even if asked to do so by Trump because we have to devote resources to investigating less moronic treatment possibilities.

    I imagine the WHO are evidence-based purists, so if they say "there is no evidence..." it means only "it has not been shown by phase 3 of a proper double blinded randomised prospective study that..." i.e. what they say doesn't rule out the claim that there are jolly good reasons, based on principle and/or on observation, to think that a vaccine will give lasting protection.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    IshmaelZ said:

    kamski said:

    Foxy said:

    Nigelb said:

    The WHO statement from a couple of days back that there is “no evidence” that vaccines will provide protection seemed wrong at the time, and even more so now.

    "No evidence" that vaccines will have long lasting effect simply means that there is no evidence. It is a statement calling for proper science, not nihilism.
    "Not yet evidence" would have been rather less open to the charge of nihilism!
    I think people should be more careful with the use of phrases like "no evidence"

    I don't think it's helpful to use the same words for things with wildly different probabilities eg

    "there's no evidence that a vaccine will give long-lasting immunity"


    "there's no evidence that injecting disinfectant is an effective treatment"

    Makes it sound like there is equal uncertainty about both.

    Better to say:
    There is no guarantee that an effective vaccine will become available.

    And
    Injecting disinfectant is a stupid idea, and we're not going to waste time proving it even if asked to do so by Trump because we have to devote resources to investigating less moronic treatment possibilities.

    I imagine the WHO are evidence-based purists, so if they say "there is no evidence..." it means only "it has not been shown by phase 3 of a proper double blinded randomised prospective study that..." i.e. what they say doesn't rule out the claim that there are jolly good reasons, based on principle and/or on observation, to think that a vaccine will give lasting protection.
    Yes spot on and this is the problem with their face mask stand-off. There haven't been, and nor will there ever be, proper double blinded randomised trials of face mask wearing.

    So the rest of the world is ahead of WHO ... and the UK (obvs).
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,547
    As the saying goes, history doesn't repeat itself, but historians do.

    I am struck by how little the rest of Europe, with the exception of Ireland, cares about what a Brexit Britain does. That certainly wasn't the case with Louis XIV
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 14,772

    It does look like the back to workers have won the cabinet struggle. The next trick will be to persuade people to do it. That will be one hell of a task.

    Stop paying people to stay home and many won't have the choice, though there then becomes one heck of a social divide between people able to work from home, and those not.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,038
    Foxy said:

    Nigelb said:

    TimT said:

    Nigelb said:

    The WHO statement from a couple of days back that there is “no evidence” that vaccines will provide protection seemed wrong at the time, and even more so now.

    Yep. A lot of what the WHO is saying seems wrong. Like it is not aerosol-borne. Or no mention of the faecal-oral route of transmission. Or that you should take your gloves off first when doffing PPE (PHE and CDC also get this wrong, so WHO is not alone on that one).
    The WHO does very valuable work. Providing the “best scientific advice” in real time doesn’t appear to be their metier, though.
    WHO is like all international organisations imperfect, bureaucratic and politically influenced. That is pretty inevitable, but if it didn't exist we would need to reinvent it. Ditto the UN, the IMF, the World Bank, the European Union.

    It's about as straight as a three-bob note.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    Foxy said:

    Nigelb said:

    TimT said:

    Nigelb said:

    The WHO statement from a couple of days back that there is “no evidence” that vaccines will provide protection seemed wrong at the time, and even more so now.

    Yep. A lot of what the WHO is saying seems wrong. Like it is not aerosol-borne. Or no mention of the faecal-oral route of transmission. Or that you should take your gloves off first when doffing PPE (PHE and CDC also get this wrong, so WHO is not alone on that one).
    The WHO does very valuable work. Providing the “best scientific advice” in real time doesn’t appear to be their metier, though.
    WHO is like all international organisations imperfect, bureaucratic and politically influenced. That is pretty inevitable, but if it didn't exist we would need to reinvent it. Ditto the UN, the IMF, the World Bank, the European Union.

    FIFA, UEFA, FIA ...
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,961

    Nigelb said:

    A thread on PI results for the first Chinese vaccine. The data look good (and it seems to provide protection against various strains evolved outside of China, too).
    But being an ‘old fashioned” inactivated virus vaccine, will be relatively expensive and slow to manufacture in quantity (though many countries have the necessary plants).

    https://twitter.com/florian_krammer/status/1252940519942098944

    And yet someone on here yesterday lampooned the idea that Asia might be ahead of the game.
    Considering almost every possible opinion on anything topical is said here that is a rather meaningless truism. If everything everyone ever wrote on here was true then we'd live in both the world as it is and the world through the looking glass simultaneously.
    EMICIPM, for example.....
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,124

    It does look like the back to workers have won the cabinet struggle. The next trick will be to persuade people to do it. That will be one hell of a task.

    I think getting people to go back will not be hard - the difficulty is to do it safely. In Spain they are doing it by region based on low incidence areas 'relaxing' first - which I think is a good strategy. We are to be in the first wave - a bit nerve wracking as we currently have very few cases in our zone [northern Almeria] and we'd like to keep it so.
  • BannedinnParisBannedinnParis Posts: 1,884
    IanB2 said:

    Barnesian said:

    Nigelb said:

    Conclusive demonstration of the role of the proofreading segment in the acovid genome:

    The coronavirus proofreading exoribonuclease mediates extensive viral recombination
    https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.23.057786v1
    ... RNA recombination is required during normal CoV replication for subgenomic mRNA (sgmRNA) synthesis and generates defective viral genomes (DVGs) of unknown function. However, the determinants and patterns of CoV recombination are unknown. Here, we show that divergent β-CoVs SARS-CoV-2, MERS-CoV, and murine hepatitis virus (MHV) perform extensive RNA recombination in culture, generating similar patterns of recombination junctions and diverse populations of DVGs and sgmRNAs. We demonstrate that the CoV proofreading nonstructural protein (nsp14) 3-to-5 exoribonuclease (nsp14-ExoN) is required for normal CoV recombination and that its genetic inactivation causes significantly decreased frequency and altered patterns of recombination in both infected cells and released virions. Thus, nsp14-ExoN is a key determinant of both high fidelity CoV replication and recombination, and thereby represents a highly-conserved and vulnerable target for virus inhibition and attenuation.

    That's very promising, not only in providing a target, but in suggesting, because of its use of a proofreading protein, that significant mutations are less likely and therefore longer lasting vaccines and antibodies more likely.
    I watched (about half of) Michael Farzan's lecture yesterday. He reckoned that if it does mutate, future mutations will tend to become less effective.
    Effective at what?

    Most mutations (that spread) tend to be more virulent but less severe
    yes, more hosts but without the mistake of killing them
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,124

    Hey, senior media guys, you following this thread? You might learn stuff about coronaviruses.....

    Just remember to ignore the header!
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,124

    FPT - the most dangerous think I might do post lockdown is take the train.

    It doesn't matter what people say. There are plenty of people (usually men) who insist on going into work when not feeling well and who don't cover their mouths when coughing or blow their noses when sneezing discreetly. Instead, they insist on clearing their throats loudly right next to others. They often don't bother to wash or wipe their hands after either.

    Given the high-density seating on most SWR commuter trains (and the close packing of rows) it's that which I'd be most concerned about.

    I've been using trains all through lockdown and have a carriage all to myself. I wipe everything down and use a face mask for the transit.

    Not the slightest chance of catching a virus on there.

    Supermarkets are WAY more dangerous.
    You are Niles from Frazier and I claim my $200!
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,288

    IanB2 said:

    FPT - the most dangerous think I might do post lockdown is take the train.

    It doesn't matter what people say. There are plenty of people (usually men) who insist on going into work when not feeling well and who don't cover their mouths when coughing or blow their noses when sneezing discreetly. Instead, they insist on clearing their throats loudly right next to others. They often don't bother to wash or wipe their hands after either.

    Given the high-density seating on most SWR commuter trains (and the close packing of rows) it's that which I'd be most concerned about.

    I've been using trains all through lockdown and have a carriage all to myself. I wipe everything down and use a face mask for the transit.

    Not the slightest chance of catching a virus on there.

    Supermarkets are WAY more dangerous.
    Which bit of 'stay at home' do writers find so difficult to understand?
    Dunno but I fit the Gov't guidelines on travel, which I'm not divulging here, so bog off.
    Writers block.. exceot on PB...
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,961
    TGOHF666 said:

    https://twitter.com/heraldscotland/status/1254655177476444162?s=21


    THE SNP is so rotten it may have to be replaced by a new independence party, its former deputy leader has said

    malcy will along to tell us that stench of necrosis is just Alex Salmond's aftershave in 5,4,3......
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    edited April 2020

    IanB2 said:

    FPT - the most dangerous think I might do post lockdown is take the train.

    It doesn't matter what people say. There are plenty of people (usually men) who insist on going into work when not feeling well and who don't cover their mouths when coughing or blow their noses when sneezing discreetly. Instead, they insist on clearing their throats loudly right next to others. They often don't bother to wash or wipe their hands after either.

    Given the high-density seating on most SWR commuter trains (and the close packing of rows) it's that which I'd be most concerned about.

    I've been using trains all through lockdown and have a carriage all to myself. I wipe everything down and use a face mask for the transit.

    Not the slightest chance of catching a virus on there.

    Supermarkets are WAY more dangerous.
    Which bit of 'stay at home' do writers find so difficult to understand?
    Dunno but I fit the Gov't guidelines on travel, which I'm not divulging here, so bog off.
    Writers block.. exceot on PB...
    '
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,961
    felix said:

    Hey, senior media guys, you following this thread? You might learn stuff about coronaviruses.....

    Just remember to ignore the header!
    Oh I dunno, they might learn stuff about France too!
  • SockySocky Posts: 404
    Foxy said:

    WHO is like all international organisations imperfect, bureaucratic and politically influenced. That is pretty inevitable, but if it didn't exist we would need to reinvent it. Ditto the UN, the IMF, the World Bank, the European Union.

    Maybe they do need to be re-invented every generation?
  • Lufthansa has asked Merkel for 10 billion dollars state aid

    And Airbus has big problems and lay offs are certain across Europe

    Indeed I do know quite a bit about Airbus in the UK but am not willing to go further just yet
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540


    So the UK is rather likely to continue to be a successful country and a key European player in the long term.

    As Adam Smith observed ‘Be assured young friend, that there is a great deal of ruin in a nation’
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,547
    People will feel a lot more confident moving around if the level of infection is low. There are sporadic outbreaks, you take basic precautions, but you are not too worried. Unfortunately the UK might be leaving lockdown at a high level of infection.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,094

    IanB2 said:

    Barnesian said:

    Nigelb said:

    Conclusive demonstration of the role of the proofreading segment in the acovid genome:

    The coronavirus proofreading exoribonuclease mediates extensive viral recombination
    https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.23.057786v1
    ... RNA recombination is required during normal CoV replication for subgenomic mRNA (sgmRNA) synthesis and generates defective viral genomes (DVGs) of unknown function. However, the determinants and patterns of CoV recombination are unknown. Here, we show that divergent β-CoVs SARS-CoV-2, MERS-CoV, and murine hepatitis virus (MHV) perform extensive RNA recombination in culture, generating similar patterns of recombination junctions and diverse populations of DVGs and sgmRNAs. We demonstrate that the CoV proofreading nonstructural protein (nsp14) 3-to-5 exoribonuclease (nsp14-ExoN) is required for normal CoV recombination and that its genetic inactivation causes significantly decreased frequency and altered patterns of recombination in both infected cells and released virions. Thus, nsp14-ExoN is a key determinant of both high fidelity CoV replication and recombination, and thereby represents a highly-conserved and vulnerable target for virus inhibition and attenuation.

    That's very promising, not only in providing a target, but in suggesting, because of its use of a proofreading protein, that significant mutations are less likely and therefore longer lasting vaccines and antibodies more likely.
    I watched (about half of) Michael Farzan's lecture yesterday. He reckoned that if it does mutate, future mutations will tend to become less effective.
    Effective at what?

    Most mutations (that spread) tend to be more virulent but less severe
    yes, more hosts but without the mistake of killing them
    The key to success appears to be symptoms that are sufficiently mild that people go out and about merrily infecting everyone they meet. This virus already achieves some of that with its long incubation period, which appears the single one reason why it has proved such a problem.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,124
    FF43 said:

    People will feel a lot more confident moving around if the level of infection is low. There are sporadic outbreaks, you take basic precautions, but you are not too worried. Unfortunately the UK might be leaving lockdown at a high level of infection.

    Its size, population distribution, transport network, age distribution ...all these and more present huge challenges.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,625

    Lufthansa has asked Merkel for 10 billion dollars state aid

    And Airbus has big problems and lay offs are certain across Europe

    Indeed I do know quite a bit about Airbus in the UK but am not willing to go further just yet

    The pressure on EasyJet etc must be incredible for them to still have orders for Airbus aircraft.
  • Lufthansa has asked Merkel for 10 billion dollars state aid

    And Airbus has big problems and lay offs are certain across Europe

    Indeed I do know quite a bit about Airbus in the UK but am not willing to go further just yet

    The pressure on EasyJet etc must be incredible for them to still have orders for Airbus aircraft.
    I believe they are trying to cancel a 4 billion order
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,625
    Socky said:

    Foxy said:

    WHO is like all international organisations imperfect, bureaucratic and politically influenced. That is pretty inevitable, but if it didn't exist we would need to reinvent it. Ditto the UN, the IMF, the World Bank, the European Union.

    Maybe they do need to be re-invented every generation?
    Eventually all organisations fall down the hole of existing entirely for the sake of their existence. Then reality intrudes.

    Watching that happen to the Environment Agency in Oxford was instructive.

    RNLIB is currently working it's way towards that.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,961

    Lufthansa has asked Merkel for 10 billion dollars state aid

    And Airbus has big problems and lay offs are certain across Europe

    Indeed I do know quite a bit about Airbus in the UK but am not willing to go further just yet

    And EU state aid rules....? Torn up?
  • Lufthansa has asked Merkel for 10 billion dollars state aid

    And Airbus has big problems and lay offs are certain across Europe

    Indeed I do know quite a bit about Airbus in the UK but am not willing to go further just yet

    And EU state aid rules....? Torn up?
    Exactly.

    And this is why we cannot be tied to EU state aid and tax regulations policed by the ECJ

    It is simply not acceptable
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    Sorry but I immediately thought of France.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,405
    Looks like an English-speaking island nation took the right action early enough and has rid itself of the virus.

    Just not this one.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,961
    Scott_xP said:
    Dominic Cummings reports back to the PM that "the scientists are running around like a bunch of headless chickens...."
  • kamskikamski Posts: 4,199

    Lufthansa has asked Merkel for 10 billion dollars state aid

    And Airbus has big problems and lay offs are certain across Europe

    Indeed I do know quite a bit about Airbus in the UK but am not willing to go further just yet

    And EU state aid rules....? Torn up?
    Let the airlines go bust. It's a good moment to get companies to start paying for their negative externalities
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,405
    I don't know why Sky still keep going on about time to double when we are clearly no longer on an exponential growth curve.

  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,724

    Lufthansa has asked Merkel for 10 billion dollars state aid

    And Airbus has big problems and lay offs are certain across Europe

    Indeed I do know quite a bit about Airbus in the UK but am not willing to go further just yet

    And EU state aid rules....? Torn up?
    Exactly.

    And this is why we cannot be tied to EU state aid and tax regulations policed by the ECJ

    It is simply not acceptable
    When the situation changes ........
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842

    Looks like an English-speaking island nation took the right action early enough and has rid itself of the virus.

    Just not this one.

    New Zealand ?
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 23,944

    Interesting article.

    Surely a key point (given how large, weighty, wealthy and important France is within Europe today, and a secondary leader of the EU) is that you really have to be going some to break the advantages that size, demographics, geography and the national integrity of the state give you to jeapordise your position permanently.

    France also suffered many other subsequent revolutions, had its industrial north ravaged in one world war and was wholly occupied in another.

    So the UK is rather likely to continue to be a successful country and a key European player in the long term.

    Unless some idiot comes along and lops off Scotland and Northern Ireland.
  • Scott_xP said:
    The same David King who was Chief Scientific Adviser to Tony Blair and Gordon Brown, and outspoken on climate change, expressing fears for climate change if Boris Johnson became PM

    No political agenda there then

  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 23,944

    Nigelb said:

    A thread on PI results for the first Chinese vaccine. The data look good (and it seems to provide protection against various strains evolved outside of China, too).
    But being an ‘old fashioned” inactivated virus vaccine, will be relatively expensive and slow to manufacture in quantity (though many countries have the necessary plants).

    https://twitter.com/florian_krammer/status/1252940519942098944

    And yet someone on here yesterday lampooned the idea that Asia might be ahead of the game.
    Considering almost every possible opinion on anything topical is said here that is a rather meaningless truism. If everything everyone ever wrote on here was true then we'd live in both the world as it is and the world through the looking glass simultaneously.
    EMICIPM, for example.....
    Boris won on EMICIPM's platform. #winningtheargument #losingelections
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,288

    Scott_xP said:
    The same David King who was Chief Scientific Adviser to Tony Blair and Gordon Brown, and outspoken on climate change, expressing fears for climate change if Boris Johnson became PM

    No political agenda there then

    The scientists are probably more worried about what Cummings might report back. There will be any number of different opinions as to what should be done...
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,724

    Interesting article.

    Surely a key point (given how large, weighty, wealthy and important France is within Europe today, and a secondary leader of the EU) is that you really have to be going some to break the advantages that size, demographics, geography and the national integrity of the state give you to jeapordise your position permanently.

    France also suffered many other subsequent revolutions, had its industrial north ravaged in one world war and was wholly occupied in another.

    So the UK is rather likely to continue to be a successful country and a key European player in the long term.

    Unless some idiot comes along and lops off Scotland and Northern Ireland.
    Surely England interfered a lot more in European affairs when it wasn't so involved with Scotland and Ireland?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842

    I don't know why Sky still keep going on about time to double when we are clearly no longer on an exponential growth curve.

    Imagine having a blue tick and presenting yourself as "news" with a tweet like that.
  • As PB’s leading historian I knew it was the nation of collaborators straight away.

    But it was an enjoyable read.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 5,997
    IanB2 said:

    Barnesian said:

    Nigelb said:

    Conclusive demonstration of the role of the proofreading segment in the acovid genome:

    The coronavirus proofreading exoribonuclease mediates extensive viral recombination
    https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.23.057786v1
    ... RNA recombination is required during normal CoV replication for subgenomic mRNA (sgmRNA) synthesis and generates defective viral genomes (DVGs) of unknown function. However, the determinants and patterns of CoV recombination are unknown. Here, we show that divergent β-CoVs SARS-CoV-2, MERS-CoV, and murine hepatitis virus (MHV) perform extensive RNA recombination in culture, generating similar patterns of recombination junctions and diverse populations of DVGs and sgmRNAs. We demonstrate that the CoV proofreading nonstructural protein (nsp14) 3-to-5 exoribonuclease (nsp14-ExoN) is required for normal CoV recombination and that its genetic inactivation causes significantly decreased frequency and altered patterns of recombination in both infected cells and released virions. Thus, nsp14-ExoN is a key determinant of both high fidelity CoV replication and recombination, and thereby represents a highly-conserved and vulnerable target for virus inhibition and attenuation.

    That's very promising, not only in providing a target, but in suggesting, because of its use of a proofreading protein, that significant mutations are less likely and therefore longer lasting vaccines and antibodies more likely.
    I watched (about half of) Michael Farzan's lecture yesterday. He reckoned that if it does mutate, future mutations will tend to become less effective.
    Effective at what?

    Most mutations (that spread) tend to be more virulent but less severe
    Effective at reproducing and spreading. Apparently a huge genome so lots of things tend to mutate at once, thus stopping it working. If it does mutate, it will do so slowly, meaning any vaccine is likely to retain its effectiveness. In addition, it spreads before triggering the body's immune response, making it less able to adapt to that. Worth watching. I don't seem to be able to copy and paste the link but it's on YouTube as "Addressing the Coronavirus challenge"
  • Sorry this is 3 paras but need to outload stuff thats in my head:

    If we need to maintain social distancing and want to start reopening stuff, how do we do so when a personal 2m space simply isn't physically possible? Mrs RP is doing lunchtime shifts at the primary school where she's been doing her TA placement. Like so many schools they are not even getting in vulnerable kids who are supposed to be there (Lord alone knows what is happening to those poor kids). The few that do come in can't be kept apart - you can't get upset 5 year olds to stay away from their friends and the staff. And the classrooms will fit 30 kids but its snug - no option to space them out other than removing 2/3rds of them. If social distancing is required for at least the rest of 2020 then we have a major problem in education.

    Thats just one key sector. There are a lot of other sectors key or less key where the same problem presents itself, and there is no solution. To put it in context spoke to my dad yesterday and he was describing how the doctors think he contracted polio from the swimming baths when he was 4, how it infected him and not his brother who was there at the same time, how he remembers 6 months in hospital in stark white tiled rooms with literally no visitors when he was most infectious. His point to me was that awful as it was for him both at the time and with the life-limiting disability it left him with, the virus was out there and society got on with it because it didn't have a choice. He was born in 1947, his dad was REME / Polar Bears / Paras and his mum's first husband went down with his bomber. A deadly virus was just another life hazard.

    I'll stop now. I've read a couple of things over the last few days talking about how the decades up to 2020 were almost uniquely free of deadly bugs and may in hindsight be seen as the aberration not the norm. Is CV19 the 2020 version of Polio and if so at which point do we just accept it?
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 2,869
    FF43 said:

    People will feel a lot more confident moving around if the level of infection is low. There are sporadic outbreaks, you take basic precautions, but you are not too worried. Unfortunately the UK might be leaving lockdown at a high level of infection.

    This chart was posted yesterday, comparing the areas of England. I've been wondering why the south west line, although low, still seems so static, and whether this is saying anything about a potential 'background level' of infection in spite of locking down. Can any PBer enlighten me, please? (I hope the paste from yesterday works.)
    Good morning, everyone.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    Hong Kong is another stellar performer on Coronavirus. They have had just 5 deaths. Considering that it's one of the most densely populated places on earth, and that high-rises litter the skyline it makes a nonsense of whoever it was on here who said that apartments are a guarantee of infection.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,074
    edited April 2020

    No I didn't feel like you were describing Britain. Very little of that resembled Britain.

    I wasn't sure until I got to the bit about numbers. I didn't realise pre-Revolutionary France had made such significant changes in it's foreign policies, though.
    Sean_F said:

    France did, though, remain top dog on the Continent, until 1870. And, probably had the world's fiercest army, up till then.

    Interesting article.

    Surely a key point (given how large, weighty, wealthy and important France is within Europe today, and a secondary leader of the EU) is that you really have to be going some to break the advantages that size, demographics, geography and the national integrity of the state give you to jeapordise your position permanently.

    France also suffered many other subsequent revolutions, had its industrial north ravaged in one world war and was wholly occupied in another.

    So the UK is rather likely to continue to be a successful country and a key European player in the long term.

    It was France’s failure over the League of Augsburg, the War of the Spanish Succession (where Britain did have some stunning military successes - Blenheim, for instance. My French grandmother taught me a song whose first line was “Marlborough, se va t’en guerre”) and its decision not to stop William of Orange’s invasion of England which laid the foundations for its decline. This last was the most important for England because, arguably, the institutions the English adopted and adapted from the Dutch and the accommodation which the new King had to make with Parliament laid the foundations for Britain’s growth and strength in the subsequent two centuries.

    The expulsion of the Huguenots did not help France either. The last years of the Sun King’s reign were a bit sad for him and his country. Of course France continued to be an important European player but what struck me was how another relatively minor - by contrast - country was able to take advantage of its neighbour’s mistakes.

    Hard to say now - but could or would have anyone predicted how Britain would come to outshine its neighbour relatively quickly during the glory years of Louis XIV? And yet very quickly it did.

    France’s slow decline started then and as a result of Louis XIV’s hubris. It repeatedly tried to recover its Gloire - with mixed success for itself and its neighbours.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,044

    Scott_xP said:
    The same David King who was Chief Scientific Adviser to Tony Blair and Gordon Brown, and outspoken on climate change, expressing fears for climate change if Boris Johnson became PM

    No political agenda there then

    The scientists are probably more worried about what Cummings might report back. There will be any number of different opinions as to what should be done...
    Anyone who thinks very senior academics and scientific experts can be told what their opinion should be by a SPAD has clearly never worked in a university.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,004
    edited April 2020

    Scott_xP said:
    The same David King who was Chief Scientific Adviser to Tony Blair and Gordon Brown, and outspoken on climate change, expressing fears for climate change if Boris Johnson became PM

    No political agenda there then

    The scientists are probably more worried about what Cummings might report back. There will be any number of different opinions as to what should be done...
    There must be many different views but saying HMG is 'running around like a bunch of headless chickens' defines a political attack and frankly just annoys the public who mainly support HMG position

    Over the weekend I heard from a local GP who is furious about the political attacks on HMG who feels it is doing a very good job in an impossible situation
  • BannedinnParisBannedinnParis Posts: 1,884

    Scott_xP said:
    The same David King who was Chief Scientific Adviser to Tony Blair and Gordon Brown, and outspoken on climate change, expressing fears for climate change if Boris Johnson became PM

    No political agenda there then

    The scientists are probably more worried about what Cummings might report back. There will be any number of different opinions as to what should be done...
    Anyone who thinks very senior academics and scientific experts can be told what their opinion should be by a SPAD has clearly never worked in a university.
    yeah, this is the biggest "well, quite" I've seen on the topic.

    If he had intervened in the manner that the Guardian are insinuating, we would certainly know about it.
  • Boris 'live' statement shortly
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    Scott_xP said:
    Others have disagreed, so I doubt this is the definitive point you hope it is. What it shows is the attacks have worked and the government will find it harder to use its science defence.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,165
    David King never had his views manipulated, did he?
  • kamskikamski Posts: 4,199
    I assumed it couldn't be Britain on reading the headline, so my first thought with the first lines was France. But couldn't make it fit with the little I know about Napoleon, so gave up.

    But if this is really an attempt to draw a parallel between Brexit and 17th-18th century France it's not very convincing.
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