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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Great polling numbers for those who got on the PB 250/1 Sunak
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Great polling numbers for those who got on the PB 250/1 Sunak for next PM bet
Back in November PBer Philip Thompson had a great guest slot here in which he suggested that the 200/1 then being offered by Ladbrokes was was great value bet. It came during the GE2019 campaign shortly after Rishi Sunak had been chosen by Johnson to act as the Tory rep on one of the set piece debates.
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I suggest we look back to when he stood in during the election debates and looked as plastic as the plinth he stood behind. To me Sunak is there simply becaues of Boris and when the leader falls out of favour the underlings will be removed too.
My vote would be for RAAAAAAAAB as the best in show.
On April 15, the Washington Post reported that, in New York and Wuhan, between 14 and 30 percent of ICU patients had lost kidney function, requiring dialysis. New York hospitals were treating so much kidney failure “they need more personnel who can perform dialysis and have issued an urgent call for volunteers from other parts of the country.
https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/04/we-still-dont-know-how-the-coronavirus-is-killing-us.html
It was a good tip. Worth trading out on now though as way too short.
@edmundintokyo could probably say better than I how accurate it is.
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/opinion/2020/04/28/commentary/japan-commentary/covid-19-strategy-japan-model/
...So what is the Japan model? First, it is a cluster-based approach, derived from a hypothesis obtained from an epidemiological study based on Chinese data and conducted on the Diamond Princess cruise ship that entered the port of Yokohama on Feb. 3.
This hypothesis accounts for the many passengers who were not infected with the new coronavirus despite having had close contact with infected persons. It posits that the explosive increase in infected persons is a result of the high transmissibility of certain infected individuals, which forms a cluster. Infected individuals with even higher transmissibility appear from these clusters to form more clusters and infect many others.
Based on this hypothesis, under the cluster-based approach, each cluster is tracked to the original infection source and persons with high transmissibility are isolated to prevent the spread of infection. For this reason, pinpoint testing is carried out and broad testing of the population is not required, in contrast to the approaches taken in other counties.
This cluster-based approach is conditioned on an environment in which there are only a few infected persons and clusters are detectable at an early stage. In February, when the spread of infection was observed in Hokkaido, a cluster-based approach was adopted. As a result, Hokkaido was successfully able to contain its outbreak.
For the cluster-based approach to be effective, protective measures at airports and ports are important. Hokkaido has the advantage of being an island, making it comparatively easy to control the inflow of infected people.
Behavioral changes are also required. On Feb. 28, acting without legal basis, Hokkaido Gov. Naomichi Suzuki declared a state of emergency and called on residents to refrain from going outside. Residents took the call seriously, and are responsible for the success of the cluster-based approach.
Following its success in Hokkaido, the cluster-based approach was adopted nationally. On Feb. 25, a Cluster Response Team was established in the Health, Labor and Welfare Ministry.
Another key to the Japan model is the social distancing method known as “the three Cs,” referring to closed spaces with poor ventilation, crowded places with many people nearby and close-contact settings such as close-range conversations...
The use of hindsight by so many to attack HMG and usually with political motives is at gold medal levels
Remember when she proved she was a national security risk and had to resign in disgrace?
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-28/manhattan-homebuyers-rewriting-the-rules-on-deals-in-virus-era?sref=vuYGislZ
Suspect we might see Boris on Th/Fr
So hard-coded in the black box is a formula that is fundamentally flawed, so even if they adjust various inputs like the ICU capacity (that is totally wrong for the UK), when they crank the handle, part of the machinery inside will spit out absolute garbage.
I'd be devastated if I had been chosen on the basis of the colour of my skin.
But with mass unemployment the young are again to be locked out....without jobs, and without family being able to raise equity on properties...they are going to be further away than before....
Doesn't do him any harm.
Brings to mind this -
"—at that instant, a red arm and a hammer hovered backwardly uplifted in the open air, in the act of nailing the flag faster and yet faster to the subsiding spar. "
I suppose that is linked to how quickly the economy recovers. My guess is not very quickly, and not very much. So a prolonged, drawn out fall in prices akin to the mid 90s. And quite a lot of people trapped by negative equity. Then there's the question of rising interest rates on top of that.
One other factor that didn't exist in previous crashes is AirBnB properties.
If global travel is kaput for the next year or more, we could see a lot of distressed sales. The rental market will also be flooded.
All the signs are pointing towards an almighty downturn...
On the 27th based on the announced deaths up to the 26th they predicted the 27th would have between 127 and 5000 deaths. with their most likely toll being 1250.
I do not think this will result in Hancock resigning
Pruning Wisteria and Clematis. Could I have some advice on how to handle pruning and maintenance of a mature wisteria and a clematis, that tend to get top heavy. Thanks.
https://twitter.com/mattwardman/status/1255093769969569792
https://twitter.com/mattwardman/status/1255095260985864195
https://twitter.com/mattwardman/status/1255136513345503233
https://twitter.com/jrmaidment/status/1255167329668825089
Also has the 250,000 tests per diem promise by the PM been dropped?
Hancock might be a few days late, but it looks like he'll get there.
She fluffed something - clearly she was incredibly nervous (with some justification it seems).
Maybe we should have been aiming for 200,000 tests by the end of April, but the govt will be praised if they get 101,000, or maybe we only needed 50k and they will be mullered for only getting 99k
Though appreciate comparison with other countries not like for like.
On that basis we are likely to be already well over 30k, and heading towards Professor Costello's 40k estimate for the first wave.
I wasn't asking a rhetorical question. My betting strategy for November is predicated on Trump not having a unique coalition and it just being the standard Republican voter base and that Trump's win was predicated on Romney voter voting for him whilst Obama voter stayed home or went third party instead of Clinton.
Voter screens in American polls will filter out 2016 non voters which means that Clinton haters willing to vote for Biden will not show up in current polling.
But, if Trump's voter share is not just the regualr GOP voters then my betting strategy is fucked.
I think the reasons for Brexit success and Trump success are completely different and trying to equate them as some kind of anti Liberal elitist movement is mistaken.
Dreadful contribution.
Edit: Didn't Dura_Ace report a while back that they are dumping 747s at Burnmouth?
I think Hancock setting unrealistic target was actually OK. What's important is how many people we both can test and are testing. Often the only way to drive a change is to set a target that perhaps can't be achieved.
1200 tests for Scotland represents failure for the SNP.
I suppose they think it's better they do it now due to timings somehow?
I do not like her one bit but I'm looking on the bright side and seeking the positives from the situation. If we have to have Priti Patel as Home Secretary then I'm delighted that she is BAME. I would rather not have her at all, obviously, but the thought of her both being Home Secretary and not being BAME hardly bears thinking about.
This is why the Pavlovian 'schools open' response is so misplaced. What schools can do is assist in what else is happening, as they are now. What they cannot do is lead to an improved economy or keep the country safe. Either parents must stay home half of the time and not work or grandparents/others outside their social bubble must mind the kids, thus increasing transmission. Schools may be able to facilitate some other measure but otherwise opening them is an empty gesture. The question really should be something like - 'small shops can be reopened because of the possibility of their keeping social distancing and to help them survive. Will they be added to the key workers list so that schools have them in situ rather than have them learning online?' That moves things on.
https://twitter.com/AlexInAir/status/1255174138546839553?s=20