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  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    isam said:

    The Telegraph say the ‘Stay Home’ part of the govt message is being scrapped this weekend. Councils have been told to remove it from their websites etc

    I won't be rushing out....
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,572
    MaxPB said:

    German constitutional court fires warning shot at ECB. Essentially calling bullshit on monetary transactions having anything other than a debt monetisation objective. I expect the ECB will have to at least adjust their approach to include a propert fiscal plan not just propping up the Italian sovereign debt market.

    Yes I read that in the Telegraph yesterday. This bit was interesting too, contrasting with the supine willingness of courts and politicians here to accept the total supremacy of EU law over that of member states:

    "The Verfassungsgericht has never accepted the ECJ’s assertion of supremacy and has always reserved the right to strike down EU law if it breaches the German Grundgesetz, but has never has never acted on this threat until today. It pointedly stated that the Lisbon Treaty did not establish such supremacy and that the EU is not a federal state. It ruled point blank that the German court is “not bound” by the ECJ’s earlier ruling on bond purchases. In other words, Germany has reasserted her sovereignty. This is heady stuff."

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/05/05/germanys-top-court-clashes-european-central-bank-revolutionary/
  • MaxPB said:

    German constitutional court fires warning shot at ECB. Essentially calling bullshit on monetary transactions having anything other than a debt monetisation objective. I expect the ECB will have to at least adjust their approach to include a propert fiscal plan not just propping up the Italian sovereign debt market.

    Broadly correct. They reminded that the participation of the Bundesbank in the asset purchasing programme needs to take adverse effects (devaluation of savings etc.) into consideration as well.
    IIRC there was some serious constituional argument at the time of the adoption of the Euro, in Germany, on just this subject.
    Your recollection is entirely correct. These arguments flared up again a decade ago, and many of the people on one side of that argument were then the founders of and the breeding ground for the AfD.
  • glwglw Posts: 9,535

    The more I think about this 200k a day testing number Boris has decided to talk about. In a months time, I bloody hope that new case numbers are through the floor. I can't see even if they build the capacity and regularly asking NHS front line staff to be tested that they will get to doing 1.4 million tests a week.

    Going to just give another stick for the media to bash them over the head with. Stupid politics, should under promise / over deliver.

    And if it is because they think they will finally have antibody tests, again they made that mistake before, but wait and see.

    If Roche's new test gets approved by PHE it should begin use in mid-May. That test alone will be scaling up to hundreds of thousands of tests per week if everything goes to plan.
  • isamisam Posts: 40,731

    Damn. Florien Schneider gone.

    I still long for the day football fans sing ‘he’s a model of consistency’ about a steady German midfielder
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,328

    MaxPB said:

    German constitutional court fires warning shot at ECB. Essentially calling bullshit on monetary transactions having anything other than a debt monetisation objective. I expect the ECB will have to at least adjust their approach to include a propert fiscal plan not just propping up the Italian sovereign debt market.

    Yes I read that in the Telegraph yesterday. This bit was interesting too, contrasting with the supine willingness of courts and politicians here to accept the total supremacy of EU law over that of member states:

    "The Verfassungsgericht has never accepted the ECJ’s assertion of supremacy and has always reserved the right to strike down EU law if it breaches the German Grundgesetz, but has never has never acted on this threat until today. It pointedly stated that the Lisbon Treaty did not establish such supremacy and that the EU is not a federal state. It ruled point blank that the German court is “not bound” by the ECJ’s earlier ruling on bond purchases. In other words, Germany has reasserted her sovereignty. This is heady stuff."

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/05/05/germanys-top-court-clashes-european-central-bank-revolutionary/
    Hmmm. What happens if other EU countries start doing that, in different areas, based on their own interpretations? Who rules on disputes over the ECJ's purview and supremacy, if not the ECJ?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    glw said:

    The more I think about this 200k a day testing number Boris has decided to talk about. In a months time, I bloody hope that new case numbers are through the floor. I can't see even if they build the capacity and regularly asking NHS front line staff to be tested that they will get to doing 1.4 million tests a week.

    Going to just give another stick for the media to bash them over the head with. Stupid politics, should under promise / over deliver.

    And if it is because they think they will finally have antibody tests, again they made that mistake before, but wait and see.

    If Roche's new test gets approved by PHE it should begin use in mid-May. That test alone will be scaling up to hundreds of thousands of tests per week if everything goes to plan.
    Will the UK be able to buy millions? I presume the whole world will be ordering them. The big reason UK government were so hot on the flawed antibody tests was they had secured deals for 300 million units.
  • glwglw Posts: 9,535

    glw said:

    The more I think about this 200k a day testing number Boris has decided to talk about. In a months time, I bloody hope that new case numbers are through the floor. I can't see even if they build the capacity and regularly asking NHS front line staff to be tested that they will get to doing 1.4 million tests a week.

    Going to just give another stick for the media to bash them over the head with. Stupid politics, should under promise / over deliver.

    And if it is because they think they will finally have antibody tests, again they made that mistake before, but wait and see.

    If Roche's new test gets approved by PHE it should begin use in mid-May. That test alone will be scaling up to hundreds of thousands of tests per week if everything goes to plan.
    Will the UK be able to buy millions? I presume the whole world will be ordering them. The big reason UK government were so hot on the flawed antibody tests was they had secured deals for 300 million units.
    I heard the UK head whatever the other day, he seemed to be very confident that Roche would be able to supply the UK with what we need.
  • glw said:

    The more I think about this 200k a day testing number Boris has decided to talk about. In a months time, I bloody hope that new case numbers are through the floor. I can't see even if they build the capacity and regularly asking NHS front line staff to be tested that they will get to doing 1.4 million tests a week.

    Going to just give another stick for the media to bash them over the head with. Stupid politics, should under promise / over deliver.

    And if it is because they think they will finally have antibody tests, again they made that mistake before, but wait and see.

    If Roche's new test gets approved by PHE it should begin use in mid-May. That test alone will be scaling up to hundreds of thousands of tests per week if everything goes to plan.
    Will the UK be able to buy millions? I presume the whole world will be ordering them. The big reason UK government were so hot on the flawed antibody tests was they had secured deals for 300 million units.
    The German Secretary of Health Jens Spahn attended the opening ceremony of that production line in Penzberg/Bavaria on monday. UKG was reluctant to join the EU coordinated procurement scheme for things like that.
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 3,336
    edited May 2020
    I've just watched the briefing. Was it my imagination or did I detect a political speech style and content towards the end? I'm sure he said that "we were elected to do.....". I don't mind giving the government the BOD now and again, but not if they start tub-thumping at the same time.
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 4,911
    edited May 2020

    69k tests yesterday

    What a complete plank Hancock is


    I wonder if those like eadric who were screaming like Hancock had scored the winning goal at the World Cup when he announced 122k on May 1st will now feel embarrassed enough to admit that it was a PR stunt after all achieved by putting 40k in the post? Fourth day in a row the 100k target has now been missed according to the BBC.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,625
    edited May 2020

    MaxPB said:

    German constitutional court fires warning shot at ECB. Essentially calling bullshit on monetary transactions having anything other than a debt monetisation objective. I expect the ECB will have to at least adjust their approach to include a propert fiscal plan not just propping up the Italian sovereign debt market.

    Broadly correct. They reminded that the participation of the Bundesbank in the asset purchasing programme needs to take adverse effects (devaluation of savings etc.) into consideration as well.
    IIRC there was some serious constituional argument at the time of the adoption of the Euro, in Germany, on just this subject.
    Your recollection is entirely correct. These arguments flared up again a decade ago, and many of the people on one side of that argument were then the founders of and the breeding ground for the AfD.
    My understanding was that mainstream opinion was satisfied when the constitutional experts declared that the Euro couldn't be used to break the legal requirements for "sound money" finance by the German Bundesbank.

    Is that correct?
  • MaxPB said:

    German constitutional court fires warning shot at ECB. Essentially calling bullshit on monetary transactions having anything other than a debt monetisation objective. I expect the ECB will have to at least adjust their approach to include a propert fiscal plan not just propping up the Italian sovereign debt market.

    Broadly correct. They reminded that the participation of the Bundesbank in the asset purchasing programme needs to take adverse effects (devaluation of savings etc.) into consideration as well.
    IIRC there was some serious constituional argument at the time of the adoption of the Euro, in Germany, on just this subject.
    Your recollection is entirely correct. These arguments flared up again a decade ago, and many of the people on one side of that argument were then the founders of and the breeding ground for the AfD.
    My understanding was that mainstream opinion was satisfied when the constitutional experts declared that the Euro couldn't be used to break the legal requirements for "sound money" finance by the German Bundesbank.

    Is that correct?
    Yes.
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 4,911

    69k tests yesterday

    What a complete plank Hancock is

    If there's no demand for tests what do you want him to do? Pressgang people who don't want a test into getting one?
    Bit pointless Boris announcing there will be 200k tests a day by the end of the month then
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 3,336
    OllyT said:

    69k tests yesterday

    What a complete plank Hancock is

    If there's no demand for tests what do you want him to do? Pressgang people who don't want a test into getting one?
    Bit pointless Boris announcing there will be 200k tests a day by the end of the month then
    My wife and I would love to have a test, but we aren't in the right job and we live in Wales!
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    OllyT said:

    69k tests yesterday

    What a complete plank Hancock is

    If there's no demand for tests what do you want him to do? Pressgang people who don't want a test into getting one?
    Bit pointless Boris announcing there will be 200k tests a day by the end of the month then
    Not really because as we end lockdown and switch to tracking and tracing demand will escalate.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,625

    MaxPB said:

    German constitutional court fires warning shot at ECB. Essentially calling bullshit on monetary transactions having anything other than a debt monetisation objective. I expect the ECB will have to at least adjust their approach to include a propert fiscal plan not just propping up the Italian sovereign debt market.

    Broadly correct. They reminded that the participation of the Bundesbank in the asset purchasing programme needs to take adverse effects (devaluation of savings etc.) into consideration as well.
    IIRC there was some serious constituional argument at the time of the adoption of the Euro, in Germany, on just this subject.
    Your recollection is entirely correct. These arguments flared up again a decade ago, and many of the people on one side of that argument were then the founders of and the breeding ground for the AfD.
    My understanding was that mainstream opinion was satisfied when the constitutional experts declared that the Euro couldn't be used to break the legal requirements for "sound money" finance by the German Bundesbank.

    Is that correct?
    Yes.
    So what were the nutters upset about? They had their constitutional lock - wasn't that enough?
  • matthiasfromhamburgmatthiasfromhamburg Posts: 957
    edited May 2020
    OllyT said:

    69k tests yesterday

    What a complete plank Hancock is

    If there's no demand for tests what do you want him to do? Pressgang people who don't want a test into getting one?
    Bit pointless Boris announcing there will be 200k tests a day by the end of the month then
    I think that will depend on how efficient the tracing programme will be. Cases in hospitals and care homes will not create much additional requirements for tests, patients and staff should be tested regularly, anyway. It will depend on how many contacts for possible community transmission can be identified.
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 4,911

    OllyT said:

    69k tests yesterday

    What a complete plank Hancock is

    If there's no demand for tests what do you want him to do? Pressgang people who don't want a test into getting one?
    Bit pointless Boris announcing there will be 200k tests a day by the end of the month then
    Not really because as we end lockdown and switch to tracking and tracing demand will escalate.
    Do you seriously believing we are failing to reach the 100k target every day now because of lack of demand?
  • MaxPB said:

    German constitutional court fires warning shot at ECB. Essentially calling bullshit on monetary transactions having anything other than a debt monetisation objective. I expect the ECB will have to at least adjust their approach to include a propert fiscal plan not just propping up the Italian sovereign debt market.

    Broadly correct. They reminded that the participation of the Bundesbank in the asset purchasing programme needs to take adverse effects (devaluation of savings etc.) into consideration as well.
    IIRC there was some serious constituional argument at the time of the adoption of the Euro, in Germany, on just this subject.
    Your recollection is entirely correct. These arguments flared up again a decade ago, and many of the people on one side of that argument were then the founders of and the breeding ground for the AfD.
    My understanding was that mainstream opinion was satisfied when the constitutional experts declared that the Euro couldn't be used to break the legal requirements for "sound money" finance by the German Bundesbank.

    Is that correct?
    Yes.
    So what were the nutters upset about? They had their constitutional lock - wasn't that enough?
    Irrational, ideologically motivated distrust of institutions, is my view.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,669

    Mortimer said:

    69k tests yesterday

    What a complete plank Hancock is

    Is there any evidence that anyone who wanted a test, didn't get one?

    This testing has made determined opponents into useful helpers of the govt yet again.

    Joe Bloogs on the street hears BJO moaning about only 69k tests, and thinks, wow - in one day, thats pretty good!
    NHS staff cant get tests according to Head of NHS Providers on BBC in last hour and its now taking 5 days for some to get their results compared to 24hrs a week or two ago.
    Strange as those I know are able to get them easily and the results are turning around in 24 hours.
    Well i suggest Chris Hopson on BBC at sometime around 4.35pm isnt making it up.

    How recent are these tests on people you know he was saying this is quite recent?

    2 of the wifes Carers have had tests in past 10 days first one got result after 2 days other one had test on Thursday last week and hadnt had her results as at last night.
    A colleague of my wife's was tested over the weekend and didn't come in on Monday as the test was positive.
    BBC News now interviewing Director of Care for some chain of Care Homes who is saying their Care Home "cant get test despite trying many times"

    If you truely believe there isnt the demand why is Boris promising 200k by 31.5.20?

    Test and Trace is whats important going forward. That requires Capacity but crucially the ability to get quick result.

    Lets hope whatever the current problem is its resolved soon.
    Is promising 100K tests then 200K tests a day a Cummings wheeze to get us talking about number of tests rather than looking at mortality stats?
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 3,911
    isam said:

    The Telegraph say the ‘Stay Home’ part of the govt message is being scrapped this weekend. Councils have been told to remove it from their websites etc

    Presumably replacing it with "Go out, spend money, pay tax"

    Followed up by "Please"
  • glwglw Posts: 9,535

    Mortimer said:

    69k tests yesterday

    What a complete plank Hancock is

    Is there any evidence that anyone who wanted a test, didn't get one?

    This testing has made determined opponents into useful helpers of the govt yet again.

    Joe Bloogs on the street hears BJO moaning about only 69k tests, and thinks, wow - in one day, thats pretty good!
    NHS staff cant get tests according to Head of NHS Providers on BBC in last hour and its now taking 5 days for some to get their results compared to 24hrs a week or two ago.
    Strange as those I know are able to get them easily and the results are turning around in 24 hours.
    Well i suggest Chris Hopson on BBC at sometime around 4.35pm isnt making it up.

    How recent are these tests on people you know he was saying this is quite recent?

    2 of the wifes Carers have had tests in past 10 days first one got result after 2 days other one had test on Thursday last week and hadnt had her results as at last night.
    A colleague of my wife's was tested over the weekend and didn't come in on Monday as the test was positive.
    BBC News now interviewing Director of Care for some chain of Care Homes who is saying their Care Home "cant get test despite trying many times"

    If you truely believe there isnt the demand why is Boris promising 200k by 31.5.20?

    Test and Trace is whats important going forward. That requires Capacity but crucially the ability to get quick result.

    Lets hope whatever the current problem is its resolved soon.
    Is promising 100K tests then 200K tests a day a Cummings wheeze to get us talking about number of tests rather than looking at mortality stats?
    No, it's basically the figure Boris mentioned some weeks ago. We haven't hit that target because we have so far had something like nine duff antibody tests, and we are crossing our fingers that it's tenth time lucky.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    OllyT said:

    OllyT said:

    69k tests yesterday

    What a complete plank Hancock is

    If there's no demand for tests what do you want him to do? Pressgang people who don't want a test into getting one?
    Bit pointless Boris announcing there will be 200k tests a day by the end of the month then
    Not really because as we end lockdown and switch to tracking and tracing demand will escalate.
    Do you seriously believing we are failing to reach the 100k target every day now because of lack of demand?
    Yes.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,625

    MaxPB said:

    German constitutional court fires warning shot at ECB. Essentially calling bullshit on monetary transactions having anything other than a debt monetisation objective. I expect the ECB will have to at least adjust their approach to include a propert fiscal plan not just propping up the Italian sovereign debt market.

    Broadly correct. They reminded that the participation of the Bundesbank in the asset purchasing programme needs to take adverse effects (devaluation of savings etc.) into consideration as well.
    IIRC there was some serious constituional argument at the time of the adoption of the Euro, in Germany, on just this subject.
    Your recollection is entirely correct. These arguments flared up again a decade ago, and many of the people on one side of that argument were then the founders of and the breeding ground for the AfD.
    My understanding was that mainstream opinion was satisfied when the constitutional experts declared that the Euro couldn't be used to break the legal requirements for "sound money" finance by the German Bundesbank.

    Is that correct?
    Yes.
    So what were the nutters upset about? They had their constitutional lock - wasn't that enough?
    Irrational, ideologically motivated distrust of institutions, is my view.
    Were they saying that the "lock" would be forgotten/broken/ignored/worked around at some future point?
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 14,772
    Barnesian said:

    O/T I have a bet with PaddyPower at 10/1 that the next Irish government will be FF/FG/Grn. It looks like it's coming home.

    Edit: I placed the bet based on the numbers in the Dail. It was the only feasible combination that gave a majority of over 60. Generous odds.

    Any deal has to be approved by two-thirds of the Green Party membership and probably FF councillors - many of whom are deeply suspicious of Green Party plans for agriculture.

    Given lower Coronavirus case numbers and deaths expected by June another election might seem more attractive than any deal reached. 10/1 is generous odds, but I wouldn't count your winnings yet.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 5,997

    OllyT said:

    OllyT said:

    69k tests yesterday

    What a complete plank Hancock is

    If there's no demand for tests what do you want him to do? Pressgang people who don't want a test into getting one?
    Bit pointless Boris announcing there will be 200k tests a day by the end of the month then
    Not really because as we end lockdown and switch to tracking and tracing demand will escalate.
    Do you seriously believing we are failing to reach the 100k target every day now because of lack of demand?
    Yes.
    Pretty much anyone can apply for a drive through test online. You self-certify your reason for qualifying, and no-one checks
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    OllyT said:

    OllyT said:

    69k tests yesterday

    What a complete plank Hancock is

    If there's no demand for tests what do you want him to do? Pressgang people who don't want a test into getting one?
    Bit pointless Boris announcing there will be 200k tests a day by the end of the month then
    Not really because as we end lockdown and switch to tracking and tracing demand will escalate.
    Do you seriously believing we are failing to reach the 100k target every day now because of lack of demand?
    Yes.
    Pretty much anyone can apply for a drive through test online. You self-certify your reason for qualifying, and no-one checks
    Indeed - and availability is still there so if they're not being done its not because they're booked out.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,286
    isam said:

    The Telegraph say the ‘Stay Home’ part of the govt message is being scrapped this weekend. Councils have been told to remove it from their websites etc

    There was no way the lockdown could continue without completely wrecking the economy and causing more long-term suffering (including deaths).
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842


    The number of newly detected infections raises the question whether the "the virus is under control", as many government supporting commenters have claimed on here, and also how far the R0 is under 1.0, if at all.

    I'm working back from deaths so the chart I posted earlier will be valid from lockdown date to about 20 days ago. Hopefully the halving time of 14 odd days won't increase.
    Testing has been up, down, all over the place so it's tricky to determine anything from the daily numbers.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    edited May 2020
    Andy_JS said:

    It would appear a big day has been missed by PB, Andrew hasn't forgotten though. He truly was the centrist people's prince, forever in their hearts.

    https://twitter.com/Andrew_Adonis/status/1257756942556180483?s=20

    If he hadn't stood down as PM in 2007 he'd probably still be in Downing Street now.
    I doubt it, by 2006 Cameron's Tories had a clear poll lead over Labour, after 10 years even the best PMs lose their touch, see Thatcher as well
  • matthiasfromhamburgmatthiasfromhamburg Posts: 957
    edited May 2020

    MaxPB said:

    German constitutional court fires warning shot at ECB. Essentially calling bullshit on monetary transactions having anything other than a debt monetisation objective. I expect the ECB will have to at least adjust their approach to include a propert fiscal plan not just propping up the Italian sovereign debt market.

    Broadly correct. They reminded that the participation of the Bundesbank in the asset purchasing programme needs to take adverse effects (devaluation of savings etc.) into consideration as well.
    IIRC there was some serious constituional argument at the time of the adoption of the Euro, in Germany, on just this subject.
    Your recollection is entirely correct. These arguments flared up again a decade ago, and many of the people on one side of that argument were then the founders of and the breeding ground for the AfD.
    My understanding was that mainstream opinion was satisfied when the constitutional experts declared that the Euro couldn't be used to break the legal requirements for "sound money" finance by the German Bundesbank.

    Is that correct?
    Yes.
    So what were the nutters upset about? They had their constitutional lock - wasn't that enough?
    Irrational, ideologically motivated distrust of institutions, is my view.
    Were they saying that the "lock" would be forgotten/broken/ignored/worked around at some future point?
    Not without a modicum of justification, of course. Otherwise it wouldn't have worked as well, but completely out of proportion on the other hand.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    Andy_JS said:

    isam said:

    The Telegraph say the ‘Stay Home’ part of the govt message is being scrapped this weekend. Councils have been told to remove it from their websites etc

    There was no way the lockdown could continue without completely wrecking the economy and causing more long-term suffering (including deaths).
    Some of it will be continuing, hopefully the Gov't's roadmap will allow us to work out when we'll be able to take the UK holiday we've booked.
  • Pulpstar said:


    The number of newly detected infections raises the question whether the "the virus is under control", as many government supporting commenters have claimed on here, and also how far the R0 is under 1.0, if at all.

    I'm working back from deaths so the chart I posted earlier will be valid from lockdown date to about 20 days ago. Hopefully the halving time of 14 odd days won't increase.
    Testing has been up, down, all over the place so it's tricky to determine anything from the daily numbers.
    Working back from deaths towards what? The R0 factor? That would seem difficult.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    This looks like a serious attempt to estimate the true number of excess deaths to date, adjusting for ones not yet appearing in the statistics because of reporting delays.

    The good news is that the number of deaths seems to falling fast. The bad news is that the total is nearly 55,000 excess deaths so far.

    https://twitter.com/statsjamie/status/1257917453025320960
  • isam said:
    SAGE advice to the cabinet, or to the general population?
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,688
    Keir Starmer gets my thumbs up. Sensible. coherent, not mad, and I don't think has an agenda that has anyone with brains in salt-mines.

    cf. Corbyn, Brown

    When normal service is resumed I think we will see a real improvement in the commons' dialog.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 10,343

    MaxPB said:

    German constitutional court fires warning shot at ECB. Essentially calling bullshit on monetary transactions having anything other than a debt monetisation objective. I expect the ECB will have to at least adjust their approach to include a propert fiscal plan not just propping up the Italian sovereign debt market.

    Broadly correct. They reminded that the participation of the Bundesbank in the asset purchasing programme needs to take adverse effects (devaluation of savings etc.) into consideration as well.
    IIRC there was some serious constituional argument at the time of the adoption of the Euro, in Germany, on just this subject.
    Your recollection is entirely correct. These arguments flared up again a decade ago, and many of the people on one side of that argument were then the founders of and the breeding ground for the AfD.
    Anyone who thought you could have a joint currency without, in the end, joint responsibility, joint politics and joint liabilities is misguided. Anyone who didn't realise the Euro was the largest single step towards a unified state is a bit blinkered. The options are as they always have been: break it up or further integrate.

  • isamisam Posts: 40,731
    Remain and the left did win the argument. The man who changed the whole country like never before was a massive Remainer, who was bedding an anti capitalist nutter

    At least we got immigration sorted...

    https://twitter.com/hector_drummond/status/1257769373785350148?s=21
  • TGOHF666TGOHF666 Posts: 2,052
    OllyT said:

    OllyT said:

    69k tests yesterday

    What a complete plank Hancock is

    If there's no demand for tests what do you want him to do? Pressgang people who don't want a test into getting one?
    Bit pointless Boris announcing there will be 200k tests a day by the end of the month then
    Not really because as we end lockdown and switch to tracking and tracing demand will escalate.
    Do you seriously believing we are failing to reach the 100k target every day now because of lack of demand?
    Why not - who on earth is volunteering for testing if they have no symptoms ?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,286

    This looks like a serious attempt to estimate the true number of excess deaths to date, adjusting for ones not yet appearing in the statistics because of reporting delays.

    The good news is that the number of deaths seems to falling fast. The bad news is that the total is nearly 55,000 excess deaths so far.

    https://twitter.com/statsjamie/status/1257917453025320960

    Seems plausible, although excess deaths over the entire year will probably be a lot lower than this.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842

    Pulpstar said:


    The number of newly detected infections raises the question whether the "the virus is under control", as many government supporting commenters have claimed on here, and also how far the R0 is under 1.0, if at all.

    I'm working back from deaths so the chart I posted earlier will be valid from lockdown date to about 20 days ago. Hopefully the halving time of 14 odd days won't increase.
    Testing has been up, down, all over the place so it's tricky to determine anything from the daily numbers.
    Working back from deaths towards what? The R0 factor? That would seem difficult.
    If deaths halve wouldn't it be reasonable to assume that 15 or so days prior to that infections halved ?
  • isamisam Posts: 40,731

    This looks like a serious attempt to estimate the true number of excess deaths to date, adjusting for ones not yet appearing in the statistics because of reporting delays.

    The good news is that the number of deaths seems to falling fast. The bad news is that the total is nearly 55,000 excess deaths so far.

    https://twitter.com/statsjamie/status/1257917453025320960

    I wonder if the deaths will revert to the blue line, or below for the rest of the year
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    edited May 2020
    Andy_JS said:

    Seems plausible, although excess deaths over the entire year will probably be a lot lower than this.

    Maybe, some of them certainly will just have been brought forward a few weeks or months. However, there was a Scottish study a couple of days ago which concluded that the expected length of life remaining for victims (if they hadn't been infected) was quite long on average.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,043
    This thread is now just another data point on the graph
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,688
    isam said:

    Remain and the left did win the argument. The man who changed the whole country like never before was a massive Remainer, who was bedding an anti capitalist nutter

    At least we got immigration sorted...

    https://twitter.com/hector_drummond/status/1257769373785350148?s=21

    Have you ever considered the concept of independent thought?

    That sound rude and I don't mean to be. Links are one thing, but if I wanted to see that stuff I'd be looking at the sites that posted it.

    A little bit more isam, and fewer links would in my mind be a good thing.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,401
    isam said:

    The Telegraph say the ‘Stay Home’ part of the govt message is being scrapped this weekend. Councils have been told to remove it from their websites etc

    To be replaced with "Visit a Professor".
  • Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:


    The number of newly detected infections raises the question whether the "the virus is under control", as many government supporting commenters have claimed on here, and also how far the R0 is under 1.0, if at all.

    I'm working back from deaths so the chart I posted earlier will be valid from lockdown date to about 20 days ago. Hopefully the halving time of 14 odd days won't increase.
    Testing has been up, down, all over the place so it's tricky to determine anything from the daily numbers.
    Working back from deaths towards what? The R0 factor? That would seem difficult.
    If deaths halve wouldn't it be reasonable to assume that 15 or so days prior to that infections halved ?
    At a casual glance, the reported numbers do not look that closely related.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,009

    OllyT said:

    OllyT said:

    69k tests yesterday

    What a complete plank Hancock is

    If there's no demand for tests what do you want him to do? Pressgang people who don't want a test into getting one?
    Bit pointless Boris announcing there will be 200k tests a day by the end of the month then
    Not really because as we end lockdown and switch to tracking and tracing demand will escalate.
    Do you seriously believing we are failing to reach the 100k target every day now because of lack of demand?
    Yes.
    Pretty much anyone can apply for a drive through test online. You self-certify your reason for qualifying, and no-one checks
    So what's stopping all those care home residents from just going for a drive-through test, I wonder.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,287

    OllyT said:

    OllyT said:

    69k tests yesterday

    What a complete plank Hancock is

    If there's no demand for tests what do you want him to do? Pressgang people who don't want a test into getting one?
    Bit pointless Boris announcing there will be 200k tests a day by the end of the month then
    Not really because as we end lockdown and switch to tracking and tracing demand will escalate.
    Do you seriously believing we are failing to reach the 100k target every day now because of lack of demand?
    Yes.
    I agree it soukds v plausible.
  • isamisam Posts: 40,731
    Omnium said:

    isam said:

    Remain and the left did win the argument. The man who changed the whole country like never before was a massive Remainer, who was bedding an anti capitalist nutter

    At least we got immigration sorted...

    https://twitter.com/hector_drummond/status/1257769373785350148?s=21

    Have you ever considered the concept of independent thought?

    That sound rude and I don't mean to be. Links are one thing, but if I wanted to see that stuff I'd be looking at the sites that posted it.

    A little bit more isam, and fewer links would in my mind be a good thing.
    I’d consider myself to be quite an independent thinker, and often express my thoughts on here.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,618

    isam said:

    The Telegraph say the ‘Stay Home’ part of the govt message is being scrapped this weekend. Councils have been told to remove it from their websites etc

    I won't be rushing out....
    Do you normally go out much?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,618
    Pulpstar said:

    Andy_JS said:

    isam said:

    The Telegraph say the ‘Stay Home’ part of the govt message is being scrapped this weekend. Councils have been told to remove it from their websites etc

    There was no way the lockdown could continue without completely wrecking the economy and causing more long-term suffering (including deaths).
    Some of it will be continuing, hopefully the Gov't's roadmap will allow us to work out when we'll be able to take the UK holiday we've booked.
    The answer has got to be along the lines of the Dr David Katz model.

    https://davidkatzmd.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/ravirs.katz_.3-22-20.pdf
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,328
    For anyone interested in the debate over the virus' origins and the possibility of it resulting from virus hunting activities, this is an excellent article from a friend and colleague:

    https://thebulletin.org/2020/05/natural-spillover-or-research-lab-leak-why-a-credible-investigation-in-needed-to-determine-the-origin-of-the-coronavirus-pandemic/
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,328

    Pulpstar said:

    Andy_JS said:

    isam said:

    The Telegraph say the ‘Stay Home’ part of the govt message is being scrapped this weekend. Councils have been told to remove it from their websites etc

    There was no way the lockdown could continue without completely wrecking the economy and causing more long-term suffering (including deaths).
    Some of it will be continuing, hopefully the Gov't's roadmap will allow us to work out when we'll be able to take the UK holiday we've booked.
    The answer has got to be along the lines of the Dr David Katz model.

    https://davidkatzmd.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/ravirs.katz_.3-22-20.pdf
    Seem to be eminently sensible recommendations.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,328
    edited May 2020

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:


    The number of newly detected infections raises the question whether the "the virus is under control", as many government supporting commenters have claimed on here, and also how far the R0 is under 1.0, if at all.

    I'm working back from deaths so the chart I posted earlier will be valid from lockdown date to about 20 days ago. Hopefully the halving time of 14 odd days won't increase.
    Testing has been up, down, all over the place so it's tricky to determine anything from the daily numbers.
    Working back from deaths towards what? The R0 factor? That would seem difficult.
    If deaths halve wouldn't it be reasonable to assume that 15 or so days prior to that infections halved ?
    At a casual glance, the reported numbers do not look that closely related.
    Given variability in testing and testing biases, the reported numbers probably bear little resemblance to the real number of infections, and it is highly likely that there is not even a constant correlation between the two.

    I think it is safe to ignore the reported number of cases as nothing more than a sampling artefact. Deaths - especially excess deaths, on the other hands, are relatively easier to count and compare.
This discussion has been closed.