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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If TMay hadn’t called GE2017 and lost the CON majority there would have been a general election today

It is perhaps worth reminding ourselves that today would have been General Election day if Theresa May had not gone early in 2017. When she took over as leader and Prime Minister after the referendum she made it very clear that she had no intentions of rushing into an early general election.

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williamglenn

HYUFD said:

kjh said:

justin124 said:

Cyclefree said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

One trouble with easing the lockdown is that it is hard to do it in a way that does not draw attention to its arbitrary nature. The front pages in the header mention picnics and country visits, which of course caught many people out when they were first banned -- even pb was unsure if some activities were actually verboten or if the police were overreaching. Still, four years before an election.

I don’t buy this “we’re 4 years away from an election so no need to worry” meme.

The Tories lost the 1997 election in autumn 1992 when they cocked up massively on Black Wednesday over the ERM. How they dealt with that and its aftermath and their tin ear for its effect on people was fatal to their chances at the next election.

How the government deals with the virus and its economic effects will determine the next election. People who lose jobs, businesses, homes, futures because of government decisions now will not forget this in 4 years time.

I don't really disagree , but the counterevidence is there from the 1992 election. Despite the severe recession which had taken hold in 1990 - and which was continuing at the time of Polling Day in April 1992 - the Tories were reelected.

I think the Tories lost the 1997 election on the day they won the 1992 election. It was the worst thing that could have happened to them. If they had lost in 1992 they would probably have been back by 1996.

If the Tories had lost in 1992 it would likely have been Heseltine v Kinnock in 1997, a Kinnock minority government beimg propped up by the LDs

You think Kinnock would have beaten Heseltine following a Black Wednesday-style crisis?

DeClare

No there wouldn't it would have been cancelled due to Covid-19

Flatlander

DeClare said:

No there wouldn't it would have been cancelled due to Covid-19

Perhaps Covid-19 would never have happened? Butterfly effect...

RochdalePioneers

We've had two re-elections because two substitute Tory leaders haven't liked the result of the previous one. But nobody was allowed to vote again on the other thing because they didn't like the result. Yay democracy!

Anyway, we all debated the first Starmer vs Johnson PMQs yesterday. Forensic takedown vs populist bluster.

Politically I'd say the triumph of Starmer was to force Johnson to make it up on the spot. "200k tests a day" and "big announcement Sunday" will not age well...

HYUFD

The swing was bigger amongst 45 to 65s from 2015 to 2017 than over 65s as they would lose out most in terms of inheritance not pensioners.

Over 65s voted even more Tory in 2017 than 2019, it was under 65s who swung to Boris

HYUFD

williamglenn said:

HYUFD said:

kjh said:

justin124 said:

Cyclefree said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

One trouble with easing the lockdown is that it is hard to do it in a way that does not draw attention to its arbitrary nature. The front pages in the header mention picnics and country visits, which of course caught many people out when they were first banned -- even pb was unsure if some activities were actually verboten or if the police were overreaching. Still, four years before an election.

I don’t buy this “we’re 4 years away from an election so no need to worry” meme.

The Tories lost the 1997 election in autumn 1992 when they cocked up massively on Black Wednesday over the ERM. How they dealt with that and its aftermath and their tin ear for its effect on people was fatal to their chances at the next election.

How the government deals with the virus and its economic effects will determine the next election. People who lose jobs, businesses, homes, futures because of government decisions now will not forget this in 4 years time.

I don't really disagree , but the counterevidence is there from the 1992 election. Despite the severe recession which had taken hold in 1990 - and which was continuing at the time of Polling Day in April 1992 - the Tories were reelected.

I think the Tories lost the 1997 election on the day they won the 1992 election. It was the worst thing that could have happened to them. If they had lost in 1992 they would probably have been back by 1996.

If the Tories had lost in 1992 it would likely have been Heseltine v Kinnock in 1997, a Kinnock minority government beimg propped up by the LDs

You think Kinnock would have beaten Heseltine following a Black Wednesday-style crisis?

Possibly not but who knows, a Heseltine government in any case would have been similar to New Labour ideologically

Theuniondivvie

Flatlander said:

DeClare said:

No there wouldn't it would have been cancelled due to Covid-19

Perhaps Covid-19 would never have happened? Butterfly effect...

A bat's wing flutters (or doesn't) in Wuhan..

FrancisUrquhart

BBC News - Heathrow can appeal against third runway block
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-52556421

What are they going to use it for? An aeroplane parking lot.

FrancisUrquhart

https://twitter.com/cricketwyvern/status/1258386892183293954?s=19

https://twitter.com/cricketwyvern/status/1258386894049730561?s=19

Pulpstar

FrancisUrquhart said:

BBC News - Heathrow can appeal against third runway block
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-52556421

What are they going to use it for? An aeroplane parking lot.

Can't wait for the comments on that piece to roll in.

NerysHughes

FrancisUrquhart said:

https://twitter.com/cricketwyvern/status/1258386892183293954?s=19

https://twitter.com/cricketwyvern/status/1258386894049730561?s=19

This guy does a grand job each day

williamglenn

HYUFD said:

williamglenn said:

HYUFD said:

kjh said:

justin124 said:

Cyclefree said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

One trouble with easing the lockdown is that it is hard to do it in a way that does not draw attention to its arbitrary nature. The front pages in the header mention picnics and country visits, which of course caught many people out when they were first banned -- even pb was unsure if some activities were actually verboten or if the police were overreaching. Still, four years before an election.

I don’t buy this “we’re 4 years away from an election so no need to worry” meme.

The Tories lost the 1997 election in autumn 1992 when they cocked up massively on Black Wednesday over the ERM. How they dealt with that and its aftermath and their tin ear for its effect on people was fatal to their chances at the next election.

How the government deals with the virus and its economic effects will determine the next election. People who lose jobs, businesses, homes, futures because of government decisions now will not forget this in 4 years time.

I don't really disagree , but the counterevidence is there from the 1992 election. Despite the severe recession which had taken hold in 1990 - and which was continuing at the time of Polling Day in April 1992 - the Tories were reelected.

I think the Tories lost the 1997 election on the day they won the 1992 election. It was the worst thing that could have happened to them. If they had lost in 1992 they would probably have been back by 1996.

If the Tories had lost in 1992 it would likely have been Heseltine v Kinnock in 1997, a Kinnock minority government beimg propped up by the LDs

You think Kinnock would have beaten Heseltine following a Black Wednesday-style crisis?

Possibly not but who knows, a Heseltine government in any case would have been similar to New Labour ideologically

No it wouldn't. Heseltine would have joined the Euro and stayed out of Iraq.

HYUFD

https://twitter.com/UKandEU/status/1258365270084780033?s=20

HYUFD

https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/1258382261059227649?s=20

HYUFD

https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1258328472289783809?s=20

BigRich

eadric said:

I'm afraid this really is quite shite

I thought the message had changed to "Stay Safe". Now it has gone back to "Stay Home"

https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/1258382261059227649?s=20

The picture is of barely-hidden unease, and confusion, with hints of panic

There is always going to be a 'risk of a second peek' when we lift or relax a knockdown. I fear that if this is his stated strategy then he is boxing himself in to a corner where we can only lift the lock-down when/if a vaccine is created. by that time the economic damage might have put us in to a 'Mad Max' would.

eristdoof

HYUFD said:

The swing was bigger amongst 45 to 65s from 2015 to 2017 than over 65s as they would lose out most in terms of inheritance not pensioners.

Over 65s voted even more Tory in 2017 than 2019, it was under 65s who swung to Boris

Mike was referring to the turnout. If a constituency has a 5000 voters over 65 in Election A but only 2500 voters over 65 in Election B the that will, in all but very extreme swings in voting preference, be a net loss to the conservative vote in election B.

Alistair

When will the press work out they are being used as part of internal government lobbying operations?

Andrew

eadric said:

Sweden just announced 99 new deaths. Quite high

And they have 705 new cases - this figure has risen five days in a row.

Their confinement of the virus now looks less impressive, and their downslope from the peak now looks much more like a stubborn plateau

Looks like they're going to overtake France in terms of deaths/capita this month, then the UK sometime after that.

RobD

BigRich said:

eadric said:

I'm afraid this really is quite shite

I thought the message had changed to "Stay Safe". Now it has gone back to "Stay Home"

https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/1258382261059227649?s=20

The picture is of barely-hidden unease, and confusion, with hints of panic

There is always going to be a 'risk of a second peek' when we lift or relax a knockdown. I fear that if this is his stated strategy then he is boxing himself in to a corner where we can only lift the lock-down when/if a vaccine is created. by that time the economic damage might have put us in to a 'Mad Max' would.

It's the risk of a second, unmanageable peak that they are worried about.

HYUFD

williamglenn said:

HYUFD said:

williamglenn said:

HYUFD said:

kjh said:

justin124 said:

Cyclefree said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

One trouble with easing the lockdown is that it is hard to do it in a way that does not draw attention to its arbitrary nature. The front pages in the header mention picnics and country visits, which of course caught many people out when they were first banned -- even pb was unsure if some activities were actually verboten or if the police were overreaching. Still, four years before an election.

I don’t buy this “we’re 4 years away from an election so no need to worry” meme.

The Tories lost the 1997 election in autumn 1992 when they cocked up massively on Black Wednesday over the ERM. How they dealt with that and its aftermath and their tin ear for its effect on people was fatal to their chances at the next election.

How the government deals with the virus and its economic effects will determine the next election. People who lose jobs, businesses, homes, futures because of government decisions now will not forget this in 4 years time.

I don't really disagree , but the counterevidence is there from the 1992 election. Despite the severe recession which had taken hold in 1990 - and which was continuing at the time of Polling Day in April 1992 - the Tories were reelected.

I think the Tories lost the 1997 election on the day they won the 1992 election. It was the worst thing that could have happened to them. If they had lost in 1992 they would probably have been back by 1996.

If the Tories had lost in 1992 it would likely have been Heseltine v Kinnock in 1997, a Kinnock minority government beimg propped up by the LDs

You think Kinnock would have beaten Heseltine following a Black Wednesday-style crisis?

Possibly not but who knows, a Heseltine government in any case would have been similar to New Labour ideologically

No it wouldn't. Heseltine would have joined the Euro and stayed out of Iraq.

So basically Heseltine would have been a UK Chirac and left of Blair (though I expect most of the Tory parliamentary party would have blocked joining the Euro with Labour rebels)

Pulpstar

All the MPs accounts seem to have dropped any sort of #stayhome or #staysafe

eristdoof

BigRich said:

eadric said:

I'm afraid this really is quite shite

I thought the message had changed to "Stay Safe". Now it has gone back to "Stay Home"

https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/1258382261059227649?s=20

The picture is of barely-hidden unease, and confusion, with hints of panic

There is always going to be a 'risk of a second peek' when we lift or relax a knockdown. I fear that if this is his stated strategy then he is boxing himself in to a corner where we can only lift the lock-down when/if a vaccine is created. by that time the economic damage might have put us in to a 'Mad Max' would.

The sentiment is fair enough, albeit unpopular to many, but the wording is poor. After relaxing the lockdown there will be another peak, but that second peak has to be significanly lower than the first. Something along the lines of "We have to get the infection rate even lower, so that when we relax, the epidemic can be kept under control" would not be boxing himself into a corner.

BigRich

FrancisUrquhart said:

BBC News - Heathrow can appeal against third runway block
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-52556421

What are they going to use it for? An aeroplane parking lot.

I'm surprised that they are optimistic enough about the industry future to do this.

But, I really don't think we have the luxury now, to stand in the way of any privet sector investment project. especially big ones that would create a lot of jobs just in the construction phase.

RochdalePioneers

HYUFD said:

https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/1258382261059227649?s=20

1. Downing Street pants being shat over todays newspaper front pages
2. Glad to see that Bozza has grown a lockdown mad haircut like so many people have

Theuniondivvie

How very state broadcaster.

https://twitter.com/hancocktom/status/1257881201794113538?s=20

TOPPING

BigRich said:

eadric said:

I'm afraid this really is quite shite

I thought the message had changed to "Stay Safe". Now it has gone back to "Stay Home"

https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/1258382261059227649?s=20

The picture is of barely-hidden unease, and confusion, with hints of panic

There is always going to be a 'risk of a second peek' when we lift or relax a knockdown. I fear that if this is his stated strategy then he is boxing himself in to a corner where we can only lift the lock-down when/if a vaccine is created. by that time the economic damage might have put us in to a 'Mad Max' would

Yes. This is one for media studies students to study in years to come. Seemingly direct from the source briefing even with a message ("Stay safe") within hours contradicted officially.

What a fucking shambles.

IanB2

An early teething problem with the IOW NHS App is that it requires at least IOS version 11 or Android version 8. There appear to be older phones in circulation that can’t install it.

FrancisUrquhart

eadric said:

Sweden just announced 99 new deaths. Quite high

And they have 705 new cases - this figure has risen five days in a row.

Their confinement of the virus now looks less impressive, and their downslope from the peak now looks much more like a stubborn plateau

https://twitter.com/cricketwyvern/status/1258369405089714176?s=20

https://twitter.com/cricketwyvern/status/1258369407967014913?s=20

TOPPING

RobD said:

BigRich said:

eadric said:

I'm afraid this really is quite shite

I thought the message had changed to "Stay Safe". Now it has gone back to "Stay Home"

https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/1258382261059227649?s=20

The picture is of barely-hidden unease, and confusion, with hints of panic

There is always going to be a 'risk of a second peek' when we lift or relax a knockdown. I fear that if this is his stated strategy then he is boxing himself in to a corner where we can only lift the lock-down when/if a vaccine is created. by that time the economic damage might have put us in to a 'Mad Max' would.

It's the risk of a second, unmanageable peak that they are worried about.

Of course they are. But they were presumably worried about it this morning when they briefed journalists on the "stay safe" message.

Stocky

RochdalePioneers said:

HYUFD said:

https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/1258382261059227649?s=20

1. Downing Street pants being shat over todays newspaper front pages
2. Glad to see that Bozza has grown a lockdown mad haircut like so many people have

My wife cut my hair today with some clippers she uses on the dog. It was terrifying.

Flatlander

eadric said:

Sweden just announced 99 new deaths. Quite high

And they have 705 new cases - this figure has risen five days in a row.

Their confinement of the virus now looks less impressive, and their downslope from the peak now looks much more like a stubborn plateau

Isn't a plateau what the herd immunity plan needs to be most efficient? As long as the health service isn't overwhelmed through increasing numbers parked in ICU, it should be OK. At least, OK if you are prepared to accept the 1% death rate.

Endillion

Alistair said:

When will the press work out they are being used as part of internal government lobbying operations?

The US media still hasn't figured out their central role in Trump's electoral strategy. Probably never will. I think the print media don't care as long as they keep circulation from falling too fast. And for their online cousins it's just about what generates most clicks.

BigRich

eadric said:

Sweden just announced 99 new deaths. Quite high

And they have 705 new cases - this figure has risen five days in a row.

Their confinement of the virus now looks less impressive, and their downslope from the peak now looks much more like a stubborn plateau

Deaths and hospitalisations are going down in Stockholm, (As I understand it) where they are at 26% hear immunity according to there government. but are increasing in the rest of the nation where the infection/immunity rate if lower.

TOPPING

Theuniondivvie said:

How very state broadcaster.

https://twitter.com/hancocktom/status/1257881201794113538?s=20

It's what irritates me greatly when people (especially people on R4 at 8.10am) castigate eg. Russian state broadcasters for being tools of their government.

Richard_Nabavi

It seems a bit odd to criticise the government for the uninformed speculation of the press.

eristdoof

HYUFD said:

https://twitter.com/UKandEU/status/1258365270084780033?s=20

Hmmm, first of all that is on a constituency level, which is averaging out a lot of information.. Secondly someone is confusing "reduction of time at workplace" with "social distancing behaviour".

IshmaelZ

Richard_Nabavi said:

It seems a bit odd to criticise the government for the uniformed speculation of the press.

What, jackboots and stuff?

TOPPING

Stocky said:

RochdalePioneers said:

HYUFD said:

https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/1258382261059227649?s=20

1. Downing Street pants being shat over todays newspaper front pages
2. Glad to see that Bozza has grown a lockdown mad haircut like so many people have

My wife cut my hair today with some clippers she uses on the dog. It was terrifying.

I had to take the nail scissors to the hair above (NOTE: not in) my ears yesterday as it was driving me bonkers.

Richard_Nabavi

IshmaelZ said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

It seems a bit odd to criticise the government for the uniformed speculation of the press.

What, jackboots and stuff?

LOL! Thank you, I've fixed it.

kinabalu

IanB2 said:

An early teething problem with the IOW NHS App is that it requires at least IOS version 11 or Android version 8. There appear to be older phones in circulation that can’t install it.

Well I hope mine can. I'm hot to trot with that App.

Theuniondivvie

TOPPING said:

Stocky said:

RochdalePioneers said:

HYUFD said:

https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/1258382261059227649?s=20

1. Downing Street pants being shat over todays newspaper front pages
2. Glad to see that Bozza has grown a lockdown mad haircut like so many people have

My wife cut my hair today with some clippers she uses on the dog. It was terrifying.

I had to take the nail scissors to the hair above (NOTE: not in) my ears yesterday as it was driving me bonkers.

What about the hair in your ears? Plaits?

BigRich

Theuniondivvie said:

How very state broadcaster.

https://twitter.com/hancocktom/status/1257881201794113538?s=20

The BBC thinks it has 'Journalist values'

Good joke, that will keep me smiling for a bit.

eristdoof

BigRich said:

eadric said:

Sweden just announced 99 new deaths. Quite high

And they have 705 new cases - this figure has risen five days in a row.

Their confinement of the virus now looks less impressive, and their downslope from the peak now looks much more like a stubborn plateau

Deaths and hospitalisations are going down in Stockholm, (As I understand it) where they are at 26% hear immunity according to there government. but are increasing in the rest of the nation where the infection/immunity rate if lower.

26% can in no way be considered herd immunity.

Pulpstar

Richard_Nabavi said:

It seems a bit odd to criticise the government for the uninformed speculation of the press.

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1258053124893347841

glw

NerysHughes said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

https://twitter.com/cricketwyvern/status/1258386892183293954?s=19

https://twitter.com/cricketwyvern/status/1258386894049730561?s=19

This guy does a grand job each day

He does, but it is bloody ridiculous that the press and government are not doing what he does and instead report the misleading and confusing daily report total.

Slackbladder

I have a novel idea. Why don't newspapers actually report on what the government actually says rather than 'off record' bullshit briefings?

isam

What’s the record for number of former party leaders in the commons?

At the moment I can think of Corbyn, EdM, TM the exPM, IDS & Caroline Lucas. Is that a lot?

IshmaelZ

IanB2 said:

An early teething problem with the IOW NHS App is that it requires at least IOS version 11 or Android version 8. There appear to be older phones in circulation that can’t install it.

Who could have foreseen such a thing?

Answer: anyone who knows that the IoW is the most poverty-stricken bit of the English countryside bar parts of Cornwall, where splashing out on the latest Samsung or iphone is not a priority. Brilliant place to test the app.

williamglenn

eristdoof said:

BigRich said:

eadric said:

Sweden just announced 99 new deaths. Quite high

And they have 705 new cases - this figure has risen five days in a row.

Their confinement of the virus now looks less impressive, and their downslope from the peak now looks much more like a stubborn plateau

Deaths and hospitalisations are going down in Stockholm, (As I understand it) where they are at 26% hear immunity according to there government. but are increasing in the rest of the nation where the infection/immunity rate if lower.

26% can in no way be considered herd immunity.

The percentage needed for herd immunity is a variable depending on the R value, so under partial lockdown conditions it would be much lower than otherwise.

Malmesbury

Pulpstar said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

It seems a bit odd to criticise the government for the uninformed speculation of the press.

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1258053124893347841

You are forgetting -

1) The government are stupid, evil, nasty liars
2) The media can only write stories if they are spoon fed information by the government.
3) The media are not responsible for what is published in the media.
4) The government is always responsible for what the media publishes.

TOPPING

Richard_Nabavi said:

It seems a bit odd to criticise the government for the uninformed speculation of the press.

Not on this one, Richard. It was pretty clear that this morning was a firm steer by the govt.

Alistair

FrancisUrquhart said:

eadric said:

Sweden just announced 99 new deaths. Quite high

And they have 705 new cases - this figure has risen five days in a row.

Their confinement of the virus now looks less impressive, and their downslope from the peak now looks much more like a stubborn plateau

https://twitter.com/cricketwyvern/status/1258369405089714176?s=20

https://twitter.com/cricketwyvern/status/1258369407967014913?s=20

That's another added to the 8th of April. To be honest I would be representing the last 14 days with a dotted line for the Swedish data. That seems how long it takes before it stops having stuff added to it every day.

A week old number would expect to see a 20% increase after another week.

Nigelb

BigRich said:

eadric said:

Sweden just announced 99 new deaths. Quite high

And they have 705 new cases - this figure has risen five days in a row.

Their confinement of the virus now looks less impressive, and their downslope from the peak now looks much more like a stubborn plateau

Deaths and hospitalisations are going down in Stockholm, (As I understand it) where they are at 26% hear immunity according to there government. but are increasing in the rest of the nation where the infection/immunity rate if lower.

And how do they arrive at that estimate ?
Sounds more like a guess at the moment.

Or worse...
https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2020/05/why-unreliable-tests-are-flooding-the-coronavirus-conversation-cvd/
...Recently, she notes, Swedish scientists retracted a study claiming that 11 percent of the Stockholm population had been exposed to COVID-19. That team tested samples at a blood bank for antibodies—and then discovered that their sample contained blood from donors who knew they’d been infected and were hoping their antibodies could be therapeutic....

Slackbladder

isam said:

What’s the record for number of former party leaders in the commons?

At the moment I can think of Corbyn, EdM, TM the exPM, IDS & Caroline Lucas. Is that a lot?

Tim Farron for the Lib Dems.

Easy to forget I know.

IanB2

I now have the App installed on my phone. Under 7 MB and only took a few seconds. Very easy to register and get going.

Apparently it only works on the island although anyone can install it. (Something to watch when the media starts reporting the number of downloads)

glw

IanB2 said:

An early teething problem with the IOW NHS App is that it requires at least IOS version 11 or Android version 8. There appear to be older phones in circulation that can’t install it.

That is 60% of Android phones (those using the Play Store currently), Google enables 95% reach by supporting Android 5.0.

BigRich

eadric said:

Flatlander said:

eadric said:

Sweden just announced 99 new deaths. Quite high

And they have 705 new cases - this figure has risen five days in a row.

Their confinement of the virus now looks less impressive, and their downslope from the peak now looks much more like a stubborn plateau

Isn't a plateau what the herd immunity plan needs to be most efficient? As long as the health service isn't overwhelmed through increasing numbers parked in ICU, it should be OK. At least, OK if you are prepared to accept the 1% death rate.

Well, yes, your last sentence is the kicker

Is Sweden REALLY prepared to accept 50,000 extra dead in a year or two?

That would be like Britain accepting 300,000 dead.

posted on last thred shortly before it closed but relevant to this discussion:


Last night I posted on here that Nate Silver from the '538 Blog' had tweeted a report from the Swedish Gov saying that they estimated 30% of Stockholm have had the virus at some point.

After chasing that up with a friend living in Stockholm, I have been tolled that its 26% which is still very good in my opinion for a death rate of 620 per million in the city.

If (big IF) we can extrapolate on to 3 times that 78% immunity for 0.18% of population dying.

78% with infection induced immunity is probably sufficient to keep the virus at bay.

0.18% Might sound like a lot, but its a lot less than many of the early predictions, (it would be about, 20,000 in Sweden and 100,000 people in UK terms).

How have they achieved this?

As everywhere, most of the deaths in Sweden are in the old, 80-89 year olds account for 40% of those who have died, and 90+ make up another 24%. But by keeping the Schools open, workplaces open, bars and restraints open, while strongly advising the old and ill to stay Indoors and keep safe, the virus is mostly travelling though the healthy parts of the population, with proportionately little harm

If anybody has seen any meaningful estimates for how may people in the UK/London have had the virus I would love to see them, but I don't think they exist, instead what are people estimates for the % infected here?

TOPPING

Theuniondivvie said:

TOPPING said:

Stocky said:

RochdalePioneers said:

HYUFD said:

https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/1258382261059227649?s=20

1. Downing Street pants being shat over todays newspaper front pages
2. Glad to see that Bozza has grown a lockdown mad haircut like so many people have

My wife cut my hair today with some clippers she uses on the dog. It was terrifying.

I had to take the nail scissors to the hair above (NOTE: not in) my ears yesterday as it was driving me bonkers.

What about the hair in your ears? Plaits?

I miss the Turkish barbers who torch it off for you, such as it is (NOTE: there is none).

Philip_Thompson

RochdalePioneers said:

We've had two re-elections because two substitute Tory leaders haven't liked the result of the previous one. But nobody was allowed to vote again on the other thing because they didn't like the result. Yay democracy!

Anyway, we all debated the first Starmer vs Johnson PMQs yesterday. Forensic takedown vs populist bluster.

Politically I'd say the triumph of Starmer was to force Johnson to make it up on the spot. "200k tests a day" and "big announcement Sunday" will not age well...

People were capable of voting again on the other thing. Twice.

If people cared about the other thing in the other way they could have voted to give the yellow peril seats in 2017 or the reds and yellows in 2019. As it happens they voted quite clearly in 2019 to Get Brexit Done.

GarethoftheVale2

isam said:

What’s the record for number of former party leaders in the commons?

At the moment I can think of Corbyn, EdM, TM the exPM, IDS & Caroline Lucas. Is that a lot?

Your forgot Tim Farron

IanB2

Philip_Thompson said:

RochdalePioneers said:

We've had two re-elections because two substitute Tory leaders haven't liked the result of the previous one. But nobody was allowed to vote again on the other thing because they didn't like the result. Yay democracy!

Anyway, we all debated the first Starmer vs Johnson PMQs yesterday. Forensic takedown vs populist bluster.

Politically I'd say the triumph of Starmer was to force Johnson to make it up on the spot. "200k tests a day" and "big announcement Sunday" will not age well...

People were capable of voting again on the other thing. Twice.

If people cared about the other thing in the other way they could have voted to give the yellow peril seats in 2017 or the reds and yellows in 2019. As it happens they voted quite clearly in 2019 to Get Brexit Done.

You know that isn’t true. The voting system turned an unclear vote into a clear result.

Andrew

Sweden versus its neighbours:

Sandpit

IshmaelZ said:

IanB2 said:

An early teething problem with the IOW NHS App is that it requires at least IOS version 11 or Android version 8. There appear to be older phones in circulation that can’t install it.

Who could have foreseen such a thing?

Answer: anyone who knows that the IoW is the most poverty-stricken bit of the English countryside bar parts of Cornwall, where splashing out on the latest Samsung or iphone is not a priority. Brilliant place to test the app.

Actually, that makes it a good place to test as it highlights the shortcomings.

Android 8 dates from 2017, so anyone with a phone older than that will be unable to run it. Some high-end 2016 devices (Samsung, Sony etc may be upgradable).

IOS11 also dates from 2017, but with backward upgradeability to a 2013 iPhone 5S.

squareroot2

GarethoftheVale2 said:

isam said:

What’s the record for number of former party leaders in the commons?

At the moment I can think of Corbyn, EdM, TM the exPM, IDS & Caroline Lucas. Is that a lot?

Your forgot Tim Farron

aren't there any under the smaller parties.. even smaller than the LD's ?

TOPPING

IshmaelZ said:

IanB2 said:

An early teething problem with the IOW NHS App is that it requires at least IOS version 11 or Android version 8. There appear to be older phones in circulation that can’t install it.

Who could have foreseen such a thing?

Answer: anyone who knows that the IoW is the most poverty-stricken bit of the English countryside bar parts of Cornwall, where splashing out on the latest Samsung or iphone is not a priority. Brilliant place to test the app.

I have mentioned this before on here but a friend of mine, noted economist, was visiting somewhere relatively built up but out of the way in England and went into a newsagent to buy a Mars Bar, to be told that they didn't stock them because no one could afford them round that way.

Nigelb

Slackbladder said:

I have a novel idea. Why don't newspapers actually report on what the government actually says rather than 'off record' bullshit briefings?

Perhaps because some things (such as the policy of discharging infected patients into care homes) are only spoken of in off the record bullshit briefings ?

isam

https://twitter.com/hector_drummond/status/1258382125092474880?s=21

Slackbladder

TOPPING said:

IshmaelZ said:

IanB2 said:

An early teething problem with the IOW NHS App is that it requires at least IOS version 11 or Android version 8. There appear to be older phones in circulation that can’t install it.

Who could have foreseen such a thing?

Answer: anyone who knows that the IoW is the most poverty-stricken bit of the English countryside bar parts of Cornwall, where splashing out on the latest Samsung or iphone is not a priority. Brilliant place to test the app.

I have mentioned this before on here but a friend of mine, noted economist, was visiting somewhere relatively built up but out of the way in England and went into a newsagent to buy a Mars Bar, to be told that they didn't stock them because no one could afford them round that way.

local chocolate for local people!

SouthamObserver

RochdalePioneers said:

We've had two re-elections because two substitute Tory leaders haven't liked the result of the previous one. But nobody was allowed to vote again on the other thing because they didn't like the result. Yay democracy!

Anyway, we all debated the first Starmer vs Johnson PMQs yesterday. Forensic takedown vs populist bluster.

Politically I'd say the triumph of Starmer was to force Johnson to make it up on the spot. "200k tests a day" and "big announcement Sunday" will not age well...

Starmer really does have to play the long game here. The case is that the government is not up to the job that fate has asked it to do - both during the crisis and its aftermath. We are at the very start of the argument and he has not started badly. Right now, though, most people (quite rightly) support the lockdown and the the financial aid the government has come up with. Starmer and the Labour party do as well (quite rightly). This is about years, not weeks or months.

Endillion

eristdoof said:

BigRich said:

eadric said:

Sweden just announced 99 new deaths. Quite high

And they have 705 new cases - this figure has risen five days in a row.

Their confinement of the virus now looks less impressive, and their downslope from the peak now looks much more like a stubborn plateau

Deaths and hospitalisations are going down in Stockholm, (As I understand it) where they are at 26% hear immunity according to there government. but are increasing in the rest of the nation where the infection/immunity rate if lower.

26% can in no way be considered herd immunity.

Well, it is if we combine it with measures to reduce the transmission constant to 1.35 or below. Or if the bit of the population that's going out is the same as the bit with immunity (ie: young people) while the rest (ie: old and sick people) stay indoors. Preferably all three of those.

Nigel_Foremain

Philip_Thompson said:

RochdalePioneers said:

We've had two re-elections because two substitute Tory leaders haven't liked the result of the previous one. But nobody was allowed to vote again on the other thing because they didn't like the result. Yay democracy!

Anyway, we all debated the first Starmer vs Johnson PMQs yesterday. Forensic takedown vs populist bluster.

Politically I'd say the triumph of Starmer was to force Johnson to make it up on the spot. "200k tests a day" and "big announcement Sunday" will not age well...

People were capable of voting again on the other thing. Twice.

If people cared about the other thing in the other way they could have voted to give the yellow peril seats in 2017 or the reds and yellows in 2019. As it happens they voted quite clearly in 2019 to Get Brexit Done.

Total bollox. It was a keep Corbyn out election. The electorate decided that the blue twat was slightly less dangerous than the red twat.

Sandpit

IanB2 said:

I now have the App installed on my phone. Under 7 MB and only took a few seconds. Very easy to register and get going.

Apparently it only works on the island although anyone can install it. (Something to watch when the media starts reporting the number of downloads)

Good luck!

isam

eadric said:

Alistair said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

eadric said:

Sweden just announced 99 new deaths. Quite high

And they have 705 new cases - this figure has risen five days in a row.

Their confinement of the virus now looks less impressive, and their downslope from the peak now looks much more like a stubborn plateau

https://twitter.com/cricketwyvern/status/1258369405089714176?s=20

https://twitter.com/cricketwyvern/status/1258369407967014913?s=20

That's another added to the 8th of April. To be honest I would be representing the last 14 days with a dotted line for the Swedish data. That seems how long it takes before it stops having stuff added to it every day.

A week old number would expect to see a 20% increase after another week.

Someone of a very anti-Swedish disposition might look at that new cases graph, squint hard, and justifiably say that daily new cases are still increasing, albeit very slowly

The much maligned Prof Ferguson might yet get a 2nd bite of the credibility cherry

New cases are meant to increase I think

RochdalePioneers

Richard_Nabavi said:

It seems a bit odd to criticise the government for the uninformed speculation of the press.

Uninformed my anus. There's a direct line between senior lobby hacks and number 10. Always has been.

Alistair

eadric said:

Alistair said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

eadric said:

Sweden just announced 99 new deaths. Quite high

And they have 705 new cases - this figure has risen five days in a row.

Their confinement of the virus now looks less impressive, and their downslope from the peak now looks much more like a stubborn plateau

https://twitter.com/cricketwyvern/status/1258369405089714176?s=20

https://twitter.com/cricketwyvern/status/1258369407967014913?s=20

That's another added to the 8th of April. To be honest I would be representing the last 14 days with a dotted line for the Swedish data. That seems how long it takes before it stops having stuff added to it every day.

A week old number would expect to see a 20% increase after another week.

Someone of a very anti-Swedish disposition might look at that new cases graph, squint hard, and justifiably say that daily new cases are still increasing, albeit very slowly

The much maligned Prof Ferguson might yet get a 2nd bite of the credibility cherry

New cases figure is kind of worthless, not least because of the hilarious weekend effect. What's more important is new/current ICU cases. Current ICU numbers are static and have been so for weeks.

Average age of a Swedish ICU patient is 60 and the majority are between 50 and 69.

Don't have Hypertension is my top tip from looking at the Swedish data.

IshmaelZ

glw said:

IanB2 said:

An early teething problem with the IOW NHS App is that it requires at least IOS version 11 or Android version 8. There appear to be older phones in circulation that can’t install it.

That is 60% of Android phones (those using the Play Store currently), Google enables 95% reach by supporting Android 5.0.

So that's the *poorest* 40% of android users and a smaller percentage of the *poorest* apple users locked out because some London based coding dweeb has said "What do you mean, legacy systems? EVERYBODY I KNOW is using IoS 13".

Everything about this is looking like a May grade clusterfuck.

IanB2

Sandpit said:

IanB2 said:

I now have the App installed on my phone. Under 7 MB and only took a few seconds. Very easy to register and get going.

Apparently it only works on the island although anyone can install it. (Something to watch when the media starts reporting the number of downloads)

Good luck!

A strange desire to go out meeting and greeting, since the App is unlikely trigger during the afternoon I have planned, doing the garden.

Apparently the alert will come through within four hours of someone you have had “significant contact with” testing positive, or having sufficient symptoms to be treated as likely positive. The contact model is described as complex and evolving with the prototype having been signed off by Professor Whitty, but it doesn’t answer the question of how “significant contact” is defined. Clearly this will be a big part of the trial.

TOPPING

Just spent the past 40 minutes listening to Ultravox, Ultravox.

Really was excellent. They, and John Foxx in particular, really were ahead of their time.

isam

eadric said:

isam said:

eadric said:

Alistair said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

eadric said:

Sweden just announced 99 new deaths. Quite high

And they have 705 new cases - this figure has risen five days in a row.

Their confinement of the virus now looks less impressive, and their downslope from the peak now looks much more like a stubborn plateau

https://twitter.com/cricketwyvern/status/1258369405089714176?s=20

https://twitter.com/cricketwyvern/status/1258369407967014913?s=20

That's another added to the 8th of April. To be honest I would be representing the last 14 days with a dotted line for the Swedish data. That seems how long it takes before it stops having stuff added to it every day.

A week old number would expect to see a 20% increase after another week.

Someone of a very anti-Swedish disposition might look at that new cases graph, squint hard, and justifiably say that daily new cases are still increasing, albeit very slowly

The much maligned Prof Ferguson might yet get a 2nd bite of the credibility cherry

New cases are meant to increase I think

New cases are falling in all the most successful countries, from South Korea on

Ah ok, but I would have thought an aim of herd immunity required a lot of people to get it. Maybe not

Nigelb

Alistair said:

eadric said:

Alistair said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

eadric said:

Sweden just announced 99 new deaths. Quite high

And they have 705 new cases - this figure has risen five days in a row.

Their confinement of the virus now looks less impressive, and their downslope from the peak now looks much more like a stubborn plateau

https://twitter.com/cricketwyvern/status/1258369405089714176?s=20

https://twitter.com/cricketwyvern/status/1258369407967014913?s=20

That's another added to the 8th of April. To be honest I would be representing the last 14 days with a dotted line for the Swedish data. That seems how long it takes before it stops having stuff added to it every day.

A week old number would expect to see a 20% increase after another week.

Someone of a very anti-Swedish disposition might look at that new cases graph, squint hard, and justifiably say that daily new cases are still increasing, albeit very slowly

The much maligned Prof Ferguson might yet get a 2nd bite of the credibility cherry

New cases figure is kind of worthless, not least because of the hilarious weekend effect. What's more important is new/current ICU cases. Current ICU numbers are static and have been so for weeks.

Average age of a Swedish ICU patient is 60 and the majority are between 50 and 69.

Don't have Hypertension is my top tip from looking at the Swedish data.

What are the criteria for admission to hospital for Covid patients in Sweden ?

Sandpit

Latest comment on the NHSX app Bluetooth issues (long thread, conclusion is we still don't know yet).
https://twitter.com/Psythor/status/1258327399391006720

Andy_Cooke

NerysHughes said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

https://twitter.com/cricketwyvern/status/1258386892183293954?s=19

https://twitter.com/cricketwyvern/status/1258386894049730561?s=19

This guy does a grand job each day

I think everyone is in agreement on this.
He shows how people can simply present the actual data, comparatively, and without any agenda attached.

stodge

HYUFD said:

If the Tories had lost in 1992 it would likely have been Heseltine v Kinnock in 1997, a Kinnock minority government beimg propped up by the LDs

I wonder if Heseltine's health would have been an issue. If he has to stand down presumably it's Portillo who succeeds as LOTO as he would have been in our reality had he not lost his seat in 1997.

The Labour-LD relationship in 1992 would have been a marriage of inconvenience at best. I doubt Paddy would have served in a Kinnock Cabinet and it's not unreasonable to suppose Brown might have made less of a disaster of ERM exit than Lamont and in any case he could and would have blamed the Conservatives.

IanB2

Five minutes after installing the App, the governments glossy leaflet drops through the door.

The App doesn’t record where you are (says the leaflet), anyone can download it, and the postcode you give is based on honesty only.

The one thing that is obvious is that there are going to be tons of downloads from north island, many giving incorrect postcodes, and this evening’s claim of substantial success in getting islanders to download the App (already started by the MP) will be impossible to verify and most unlikely to be true.

Theuniondivvie

TOPPING said:

Just spent the past 40 minutes listening to Ultravox, Ultravox.

Really was excellent. They, and John Foxx in particular, really were ahead of their time.

Ultravox were always a bit beyond the pale for cool kid wannabes like me. Still have Underpass floating about in some form or other though, it were right good.

Andrew

IshmaelZ said:

So that's the *poorest* 40% of android users and a smaller percentage of the *poorest* apple users locked out because some London based coding dweeb has said "What do you mean, legacy systems? EVERYBODY I KNOW is using IoS 13".

Everything about this is looking like a May grade clusterfuck.

Must admit I groaned when I heard they were separating from the google/apple effort. Government IT projects .....

Quick search suggests 50% of currently used Android devices in Europe are older than version8. That includes tablets (maybe not replaced so regularly?) so it's not fully representative, but clearly if they can't fix that it's going to be useless.

Theuniondivvie

IshmaelZ said:

glw said:

IanB2 said:

An early teething problem with the IOW NHS App is that it requires at least IOS version 11 or Android version 8. There appear to be older phones in circulation that can’t install it.

That is 60% of Android phones (those using the Play Store currently), Google enables 95% reach by supporting Android 5.0.

So that's the *poorest* 40% of android users and a smaller percentage of the *poorest* apple users locked out because some London based coding dweeb has said "What do you mean, legacy systems? EVERYBODY I KNOW is using IoS 13".

Everything about this is looking like a May grade clusterfuck.

May grade is good.

Sandpit

IanB2 said:

Sandpit said:

IanB2 said:

I now have the App installed on my phone. Under 7 MB and only took a few seconds. Very easy to register and get going.

Apparently it only works on the island although anyone can install it. (Something to watch when the media starts reporting the number of downloads)

Good luck!

A strange desire to go out meeting and greeting, since the App is unlikely trigger during the afternoon I have planned, doing the garden.

Apparently the alert will come through within four hours of someone you have had “significant contact with” testing positive, or having sufficient symptoms to be treated as likely positive. The contact model is described as complex and evolving with the prototype having been signed off by Professor Whitty, but it doesn’t answer the question of how “significant contact” is defined. Clearly this will be a big part of the trial.

One of the biggest dangers in a trial like this, will be hundreds of people going out today and 'bumping phones' to 'see if it works'.

It could completely skew results, as well as obviously resulting in a whole bunch more social interactions than would usually be the case - or that should be the case under current circumstances.

IanB2

Sandpit said:

IanB2 said:

Sandpit said:

IanB2 said:

I now have the App installed on my phone. Under 7 MB and only took a few seconds. Very easy to register and get going.

Apparently it only works on the island although anyone can install it. (Something to watch when the media starts reporting the number of downloads)

Good luck!

A strange desire to go out meeting and greeting, since the App is unlikely trigger during the afternoon I have planned, doing the garden.

Apparently the alert will come through within four hours of someone you have had “significant contact with” testing positive, or having sufficient symptoms to be treated as likely positive. The contact model is described as complex and evolving with the prototype having been signed off by Professor Whitty, but it doesn’t answer the question of how “significant contact” is defined. Clearly this will be a big part of the trial.

One of the biggest dangers in a trial like this, will be hundreds of people going out today and 'bumping phones' to 'see if it works'.

It could completely skew results, as well as obviously resulting in a whole bunch more social interactions than would usually be the case - or that should be the case under current circumstances.

We only have about 100 cases on the island to begin with, of which about 20 are dead and 20 are recovered and about 10 in the local hospital. So that leaves 50 confirmed cases ill at home; the only rule of thumb I have seen is a possible five times ratio so there may be 250 people wandering around with the virus, among a population of 140,000. Since the App requires “significant contact” to trigger, its going to be very quiet for almost everyone.

If I were running the test I would get some dummy positive devices (ideally recovered people who can’t possibly transmit) wandering around the island, doing everything from casually passing people to standing next to them, to see how effectively it works. Whether they would actually take such a risk during the virus crisis seems unlikely.

Scott_xP

Richard_Nabavi said:

It seems a bit odd to criticise the government for the uninformed speculation of the press.

You have to give the press credit though for all independently arriving at exactly the same uninformed speculative outcome...

Miraculous.

Scott_xP

https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1258400342267629568

Sunil_Prasannan

Stocky said:

RochdalePioneers said:

HYUFD said:

https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/1258382261059227649?s=20

1. Downing Street pants being shat over todays newspaper front pages
2. Glad to see that Bozza has grown a lockdown mad haircut like so many people have

My wife cut my hair today with some clippers she uses on the dog. It was terrifying.

"Shear" terror?

isam

Andy_Cooke said:

NerysHughes said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

https://twitter.com/cricketwyvern/status/1258386892183293954?s=19

https://twitter.com/cricketwyvern/status/1258386894049730561?s=19

This guy does a grand job each day

I think everyone is in agreement on this.
He shows how people can simply present the actual data, comparatively, and without any agenda attached.

When I first started posting them, he was labelled a ‘half glass full’ merchant

BigRich

isam said:

eadric said:

isam said:

eadric said:

Alistair said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

eadric said:

Sweden just announced 99 new deaths. Quite high

And they have 705 new cases - this figure has risen five days in a row.

Their confinement of the virus now looks less impressive, and their downslope from the peak now looks much more like a stubborn plateau

https://twitter.com/cricketwyvern/status/1258369405089714176?s=20

https://twitter.com/cricketwyvern/status/1258369407967014913?s=20

That's another added to the 8th of April. To be honest I would be representing the last 14 days with a dotted line for the Swedish data. That seems how long it takes before it stops having stuff added to it every day.

A week old number would expect to see a 20% increase after another week.

Someone of a very anti-Swedish disposition might look at that new cases graph, squint hard, and justifiably say that daily new cases are still increasing, albeit very slowly

The much maligned Prof Ferguson might yet get a 2nd bite of the credibility cherry

New cases are meant to increase I think

New cases are falling in all the most successful countries, from South Korea on

Ah ok, but I would have thought an aim of herd immunity required a lot of people to get it. Maybe not

In say, a matamatical modall, you could do some calculations, and say with a R0 number of 3 you need 66.7 to be immune to get the transition number to below 1 with an R0 number of 4 you need 75% and so on.

But in reality, some people are much more prone to catch the virus and to spread it on, e.g. bar tenders, or bus Drivers. while other people are much less so, eg. light house keepers.

Because of this disparity the % of people who need to be infected to bring R to below 1 is lower than the % the modules predict.

Also the R0 number is based on life styles before the virus, is some things have changed from before, e.g. the habit of shaking hands, or not washing hands, the that will bring it down also, but hard to say haw much.

the big caveats is that an infection rate below 1 does not mean that the dying stops, just it will attenuate down, probably with sporadic outbreaks. and if it is more seasonally affected than we think could come back in the winter if the reinfection comes above 1 again.

CarlottaVance

"Following the Science"?

https://twitter.com/ChrisMusson/status/1258338608018227200?s=20

isam

SouthamObserver said:

RochdalePioneers said:

We've had two re-elections because two substitute Tory leaders haven't liked the result of the previous one. But nobody was allowed to vote again on the other thing because they didn't like the result. Yay democracy!

Anyway, we all debated the first Starmer vs Johnson PMQs yesterday. Forensic takedown vs populist bluster.

Politically I'd say the triumph of Starmer was to force Johnson to make it up on the spot. "200k tests a day" and "big announcement Sunday" will not age well...

Starmer really does have to play the long game here. The case is that the government is not up to the job that fate has asked it to do - both during the crisis and its aftermath. We are at the very start of the argument and he has not started badly. Right now, though, most people (quite rightly) support the lockdown and the the financial aid the government has come up with. Starmer and the Labour party do as well (quite rightly). This is about years, not weeks or months.

The latest poll had both Labour and the Govt falling though

IshmaelZ

Theuniondivvie said:

IshmaelZ said:

glw said:

IanB2 said:

An early teething problem with the IOW NHS App is that it requires at least IOS version 11 or Android version 8. There appear to be older phones in circulation that can’t install it.

That is 60% of Android phones (those using the Play Store currently), Google enables 95% reach by supporting Android 5.0.

So that's the *poorest* 40% of android users and a smaller percentage of the *poorest* apple users locked out because some London based coding dweeb has said "What do you mean, legacy systems? EVERYBODY I KNOW is using IoS 13".

Everything about this is looking like a May grade clusterfuck.

May grade is good.

I never learn, I greet every new tory leader with a genuine and heartfelt belief that they are going to pivot towards basic competence.

Philip_Thompson

Nigel_Foremain said:

Philip_Thompson said:

RochdalePioneers said:

We've had two re-elections because two substitute Tory leaders haven't liked the result of the previous one. But nobody was allowed to vote again on the other thing because they didn't like the result. Yay democracy!

Anyway, we all debated the first Starmer vs Johnson PMQs yesterday. Forensic takedown vs populist bluster.

Politically I'd say the triumph of Starmer was to force Johnson to make it up on the spot. "200k tests a day" and "big announcement Sunday" will not age well...

People were capable of voting again on the other thing. Twice.

If people cared about the other thing in the other way they could have voted to give the yellow peril seats in 2017 or the reds and yellows in 2019. As it happens they voted quite clearly in 2019 to Get Brexit Done.

Total bollox. It was a keep Corbyn out election. The electorate decided that the blue twat was slightly less dangerous than the red twat.

It was a whatever people wanted to vote for election. They literally voted for the party whose slogan was Get Brexit Done while the party that had set it's stall on Fuck Brexit lost seats including their leader.

CarlottaVance

https://twitter.com/ian_a_jones/status/1258400776038363137?s=20

Is anyone doing similar graphs for Scotland & Wales?