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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » “Never again” means nothing if we recite the words while forge
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » “Never again” means nothing if we recite the words while forgetting the lessons
Had a great day with the @SkyNews team covering events marking the 75th Anniversary of #VEDay #VEDay75 #VEDay2020 #skynews pic.twitter.com/aqAgtkWAgj
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Anyone calling it Victory Over Europe should be sectioned.
https://twitter.com/eu_commission/status/1259009019559075842?s=21
It was victory in Europe alone though it's the only name that works. Peace day doesn't work since WWII didn't end until August.
The other name that works for other nations but not so much ours is Liberation Day.
The West will no longer be top dog in 10-20 years time (arguably it isnt really unchallenged anymore even today) and I suspect we'll find out the hard way just how much global security and prosperity was dependent upon the realpolitik: our economic domination and being part of a nuclear-armed defensive alliance.
Rather than tackle that now though, we all know where the challenges come from, we seem to be more interested in squabbling amongst ourselves over identity politics and handwringing over our past.
They’re wrong but they are going to need to be proved wrong first. That will be painful.
Our current crisis demonstrates the current benefits as well as the limits of international cooperation.
I've read wiki but that just references the British Pacific fleet (know about that) and the Commonwealth Corps.
I presume we'd have landed a bit more than a corps.
The museum and cemetery at Katchanaburi is one of the most harrowing experiences I've ever seen. I wept at graves of people I never knew who lie buried an awfully long way from home.
America First was always going to be a challenge to the international community and now in a few short months covid has turned Trump into a real threat to the pre covid order and actively seeking to denigrate China into a rogue state
Countries thoughout Europe are acting in their self interest and largely ignoring the EU, and even when the EU tries to intervene we see the extraordinary situation of Germany's courts rejecting the EU and ECJ.
I just cannot see any immediate change to countries relationship until post covid and maybe then, maybe with Trump long gone, a similar post war coming together of the worlds countries may happen, but it will not be quick nor easy
As I was reading it, two names sprung to mind. Jeremy Corbyn (waving a white flag) and Mark Francois (waving a Union flag).
It's sensed an opportunity to get in bed with China as the US shuns it so is now censoring its own letters and diplomatic missives accordingly, as reported in the Times before.
It's shameful. It's not fighting the last war. It's fighting for winning the peace following the last war.
That's so short-sighted. Those battles are over 30 years out of date.
But Trump isn’t the root of the problem - his eventual departure will still leave a lot of disenchanted Americans who feel the system is against them - and “Trump 2” might be even worse.
I do believe he has started well but he and labour have a long road ahead but nothing wrong with hoping he will become a real election winner
The prime minister: “A-a-as I think is readily apparent, Mr Speaker, to everybody who has studied the, er, the situation, and I think the scientists would, er, confirm, the difficulty in mid-March was that, er, the, er, tracing capacity that we had — it had been useful … in the containment phase of the epidemic er, that capacity was no longer useful or relevant, since the, er, transmission from individuals within the UK um meant that it exceeded our capacity. … [A]as we get the new cases down, er, we will have a team that will genuinely be able to track and, er, trace hundreds of thousands of people across the country, and thereby to drive down the epidemic. And so, er, I mean, to put it in a nutshell, it is easier, er, to do now — now that we have built up the team on the, on the way out — than it was as er, the epidemic took off …”
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/comment/boris-johnson-needs-to-take-control-of-the-cockpit-25t0tw7ck
https://twitter.com/LadPolitics/status/1259028368059699200?s=19
It's early days yet but good leadership and if some sensible policies are devised, LAB will come right back into it. Especially if Boris messes up the removal of lockdown!
https://twitter.com/bueti/status/1258357035219013633
Clinically weak and exposed: As someone awaiting a brain transplant, Priti Patel is among those most at risk. The home secretary is to remain shielded from the public for months, until a reshuffle can be found. Until then she must stay at home office, protect IDS and save lies.
Gatherings: Rules banning gatherings of more than two people to be extended to a dozen, allowing the Lib Dem conference to go ahead.
Weddings: Couples will be allowed to tie the knot but the ceremony must be organised by Matt Hancock. The guest list can be up to 100,000 but he will only put the invites in the post on the morning of the wedding.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/priti-patel-will-have-to-keep-shielding-until-a-brain-donor-is-available-5hxt63wqs
Otherwise the grave which I recall is someone in Germany who died on May 6th 1945. I have no idea who he was, or anything about him, but I always think of his family when there are 'end of the war' celebrations.
But the bar isn’t high. Blair was a magnificent LOTO, indeed arguably too good. He never quite made the transition in his own mind to the different demands of government which meant a solid government was never an inspired one.
Since then we’ve had the following embarrassments: Hague, Duncan Smith, Corbyn, Harman.
The following who were solid without being inspired: Miliband, Howard.
And one who was capable but ultimately was also somewhat casual and complacent: Cameron.
Starmer has many of the qualities that remind me of Howard, who was intelligent, probing and tenacious. He also has the advantages over Howard of a neutral voice, a calm manner and the ability to get on with a wide variety of people. Whether he will put forward a more sensible programme for government remains to be seen.
He has the advantages over Cameron of being a hard worker and clearly out to take nothing for granted.
So yes, on this evidence he would be the best since Blair, but again, we come back to how rubbish some of them were.
The Tories are currently on 365 seats, Labour 202, Lib Dems 11.
On a 5.5% swing in 2024, Labour would make 61 gains, 56 of which would be Tory seats, putting the Tories on 309. Labour would be on 263.
5 of the 61 gains are SNP seats, so likely Labour won't take those. But really that's net negative for Labour since the SNP would presumably support them.
If the SNP therefore hold around 40 seats, that is Labour + SNP = 303. Lib Dems hold 11 say and that's 314.
Green MP is one more.
SDLP is two more.
So that's Labour alliance thingy on 317, Tories + DUP on 316.
Imagine how buggered a Parliament that would be!
I'm describing what the EU itself decided to do.
If Labour and the Lib Dems get together, a lot of damage can be done.
It's hard to tell from the angle which doesn't show perspective very well but it looks like family units (who needn't distance) being distanced from each other. An overhead image might give a very different impression.
He doesn’t do it at all.
That’s not necessarily a fatal objection. Macmillan was not a details man, but he was also a capable delegator with a cabinet that included a former acting PM, two future PMs and a man who was very nearly PM.
But Johnson has a cabinet with maybe two ministers who would not look out of their depth as Clerk to Ceredigion County Council.
The solution probably lies in the truth that Boris was the primary architect of the chaos in the last parliament. After the current chaos and whatever nonsense follows. Make it about him.
Much as in election 2010 with the Tories winning most seats but not yet a majority I doubt enough voters will be ready to trust Labour to govern alone
Starmer looks and sounds the part which may be all it needs. Johnson did not offer a vision save for 'get Brexit done'. Remember Jeremy had an alternative, it was just an alternative vision no one else shared.
Like I said above, the route to Number 10 for Labour is working with the Lib Dems in an unofficial capacity (like in 1997 when they had an unofficial pact).
Get the Lib Dems to take a few dozen Tory seats, you can govern with a much lower swing.
The risk for the Tory approach has always been alienating the what I'd call "soft" Tories, who might have voted Lib Dem in the past but were too scared of Corbyn, too scared of Sturgeon in 2015. Will they be scared of Starmer? Doubt it.
The hope, from Johnson's days as Mayor of London, was that he would have competent details people serving under him, as with his cycling commissioner. Thus far the evidence on that is not good.
The key difference is Scotland. Unless Starmer can find a way to attack the flabby soft blue underbelly in the south (which is entirely possible) he has to fight two fronts.
John Craven was speaking on one of the VE day programmes yesterday about his father surviving and returning from the Death Railway. Even with the long sea voyage he returned in skeletal shape.
Adjectives and adverbs don't work with something like that. I could only stand out there and weep.
I maintain the view that Johnson isn't popular, he was just less unpopular than his opponent (albeit, a lot).
One thing that really struck me yesterday is that Boris Johnson is no Winston Churchill.
He doesn't need to get Sturgeon in the cabinet, just dare her to vote down a Labour budget and explain to her country why she let the Tories back in.
With Trump the most isolationist US President since WW2 though it will come down to Merkel, Macron and Boris, supported by Trudeau to lead NATO while he remains in office and confront Putin who is more of a threat still. Xi in China is also pursuing statist nationalism as confirmed by its response to the current crisis and India and Japan and South Korea and Australia will also need to be included in a broader western alliance to keep Beijing in check
There needs to be balance.
There's no point a sales pitch without detail.
There's equally no point putting out an inordinate amount of detail that people choose to disregard.
And it needs to be remembered that whatever detail he puts out there will be people who wanted more and less - and there will be people who do more and less. If you want people to drive at or below 40 then set the speed limit to 30. If you genuinely want people to drive at or below 30 then set the speed limit to 20.
Neither is true now
Boris is popular and charismatic, the most electorally successful Tory leader since Thatcher in terms of size of majority as well as having twice
won the Mayoralty of London and led the winning Leave campaign.
Boris also has an appeal to blue collar, working class voters no Tory leader has had since Thatcher too. In fact even more so in the North and Midlands
Even if there were, there is limited risk of disciplinary implosion because he has a substantial majority (ironically, the sort Major would have had in 1992 on a UNS) so even if there were rebels they could not hold the government to ransom - and therefore, paradoxically, there are less likely to be rebels.
At the same time, Starmer does have a small, enfeebled party behind him and a potential focus for discontent in Macdonald and Burgon on the backbenches, who have not got the message yet. Hopefully, however, everyone else has and will back any changes Starmer makes.
So Starmer’s obstacles are more formidable. That is not to say they are insurmountable. If he is no Blair, Johnson is no Major. He has neither his intelligence nor his determination.
Labour should come up with its own devolution offer and do no deals.
Churchill was the better statesman of course
I'm of the view strongly that Johnson isn't popular, he might be popular for at best, with just under half the country, around 40% I'd say is his natural approval, so 60% disapproval.
Johnson won in 2019 because Corbyn was deeply unpopular and had a terrible Brexit policy (and I say that in hindsight, having been one of those that supported it).
When the red top press decide they don't like someone, that person is damned if they do and are damned if they don't. To my mind Major's biggest faux Pas was the moral crusade (iirc unmarried mothers on the St Mellon's Estate in Cardiff were singled out as moral degenerates) only for news to emerge that Major had been shagging Edwina Currie.