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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » COVID-19: With England faring the worst in Europe Boris’s TV a

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited May 2020 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » COVID-19: With England faring the worst in Europe Boris’s TV address raises more questions than it answers

According to euromomo's latest update on excess deaths England is the only country in Europe with “extremely high excess mortality". Most EU countries now down to “normal" levels, with exception of Netherlands, Belgium & Sweden pic.twitter.com/OOibmuPBIy

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    First...as in first on with a mask and goggles before leaving the house.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,753
    edited May 2020
    Uhoh, third like Wales, Belgium and Sweden.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603
    edited May 2020
    Again, that tracker measures a z-score which tracks variability in deaths. Countries with a very stable year on year death rate are punished by the measure so the UK does poorly because it's health coverage is less variable than in other parts of Europe.

    The only real measure is axtual excess deaths per million of the population. We won't have the final picture of this until the end of August at the earliest for all of Europe.

    That's not to say that the UK will do well in that measure either, I still think it will be among the worst in Europe.

    However, the hospital deaths data by death date is painting a much more promising picture than people currently think is happening in the country. We're on for around 150 deaths per day within the next few days.

    Additionally the care home breakout should be fairly quick to isolate and contain so hopefully now that carehomes properly aware and tests are being done the spread will stop and the death rate in care homes will come down drastically within a week or so.

    Summing up - I think we're about 7-10 days away from the daily deaths being routinely around 200 for all settings and falling. I think that's what prompted today's messaging change.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 18,094
    edited May 2020
    fpt.

    The Emma Kennedy thing is weird. Her first tweet simply misrepresented what Boris said (missed out the 'if at all possible'), then she got in a huge flap about her untrue statement, then she vanished up her own wazoo about it rather than backing down.

    How do these ivory-brained London Celeb-types think they deserve a platform?

    (Don't answer that)
  • isamisam Posts: 40,731
    Regarding the posting of tweets from dozens of people whose views are entirely predictable saying the same thing, I just ask: what's the point?

    If Arsenal concede a controversial penalty, does it really move the debate along if I post tweets from everyone on Arsenal Fan TV calling the ref a wanker? It just tells people I support Arsenal and are upset we lost

    It would be far, far more interesting if the tweet showed an unexpected view from someone we expect to be a boilerplate hater, but that's never the case. So I respect people's right to trash the monotonous, repetitive, vacuous posting of said tweets
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,840

    Uhoh, third like Wales, Belgium and Sweden.

    Difficult World Cup qualifying group that.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603
    There's just nothing for them to do now. Can't give out spurious fines or rely on stasi snitches on every road.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    It always was up to the public to police itself, no way the police could enforce even a simpler message on an unwilling public. And given the police couldn't understand even those very simple rules and made up a bunch of rules for themselves, I am sure it is true that they would be unable to manage something more complex and nuanced even were the government messaging perfectly clear, which it isn't.
  • BantermanBanterman Posts: 287
    Pretty pointless comparison at this stage given there's no anywhere near accurate numbers from Italy and Spain. Just helps Sky continue to run it's anti government narrative.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 14,772
    Gabs3 said:
    What are the protests about?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408

    I sometimes sit and wonder where we'd be now if Labour and the Lib Dems had formed a Government in 2010

    People love alternative history fiction, go for it. Most governments are at best a little crappy, and at worst a lot crappy, and that could produce a counter reaction perhaps the opposite of what such a government would have wanted in 2010, so the possibilities are endless.

    But usually when such a question is asked it's because people assume, for some reason, that we'd have had nothing but milk and honey compared to the reality.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    First England is not the worst in Europe, Belgium, Spain, Italy, Andorra and San Marino all have a higher death rate per head than the UK.

    Second excess deaths tells you little if you had a below average death rate in the first place
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 14,772
    I'm seeing claims that the "Stay Alert" message is part of a pivot away from government-led collective action against the virus to government-advised personal responsibility, to absolve HMG of blame for continuing fatalities?

    It doesn't feel that way to me, but I'm interested in what other people think. Am I missing something?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    HYUFD said:

    First England is not the worst in Europe, Belgium, Spain, Italy, Andorra and San Marino all have a higher death rate per head than the UK.

    Second excess deaths tells you little if you had a below average death rate in the first place

    I seem to recall advice supposesly from one Dominic Cummings that if people spend time arguing over a purported fact it doesn't matter if it was correct or not, the important thing is people are talking about it, or words to that effect.
  • I'm seeing claims that the "Stay Alert" message is part of a pivot away from government-led collective action against the virus to government-advised personal responsibility, to absolve HMG of blame for continuing fatalities?

    It doesn't feel that way to me, but I'm interested in what other people think. Am I missing something?

    My view is that the Government knows the lockdown is essentially unenforceable any longer and hence they're subtly giving up enforcing it. So if it does get worse, the Government can blame the public as opposed to themselves and have more room to reintroduce the lockdown.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900

    I'm seeing claims that the "Stay Alert" message is part of a pivot away from government-led collective action against the virus to government-advised personal responsibility, to absolve HMG of blame for continuing fatalities?

    Feels a bit like over-analysis to me. A slogan is inevitably going to get stale after a while, so dream up a new one.

    I just took this as "don't get complacent now".
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    edited May 2020

    I'm seeing claims that the "Stay Alert" message is part of a pivot away from government-led collective action against the virus to government-advised personal responsibility, to absolve HMG of blame for continuing fatalities?

    It doesn't feel that way to me, but I'm interested in what other people think. Am I missing something?

    I think the idea the government would be able to successfully pursue a strategy of 'it's all your fault, not ours' against the public, even if it were true, is somewhat unlikely, and therefore improbable that such is a strategy to absolve itself of blame. More likely would seem to be the idea that the government simply has limited control over the 60 million people it governs, it cannot watch them all the time, it cannot mandate their behaviour all the time, and so anything less simple than 'stay the f*ck home' requires trusting people, and its efforts to absolve itself of blame for any issues would be the simpler 'we did the best we could/there was nothing that could be done' route.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,286
    On 23rd March I predicted the strictest form of the lockdown would last for 6 weeks. It's actually going to last for 7 weeks and 2 days. A reasonably good prediction but could have done better.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited May 2020
    The behavioural insight eggheads said that people just wouldn't stick to a lockdown for a long time. I think big problem at the moment is the number of daily infections is still too high.

  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,286
    HYUFD said:
    Good decision. You probably get a slightly higher level of cooperation by not making it compulsory.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:
    Good decision. You probably get a slightly higher level of cooperation by not making it compulsory.
    Not a fan of making laws about such things, but a) the government have been very wooly over masks (i think because they didn't want a bog roll situation with them), b) the British culture has no experience wearing them.

    I fear because of this we won't see as high usage & people using them incorrectly.
  • Andrew said:

    I'm seeing claims that the "Stay Alert" message is part of a pivot away from government-led collective action against the virus to government-advised personal responsibility, to absolve HMG of blame for continuing fatalities?

    Feels a bit like over-analysis to me. A slogan is inevitably going to get stale after a while, so dream up a new one.

    I just took this as "don't get complacent now".
    surely CONSTANT VIGILANCE
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,840

    I'm seeing claims that the "Stay Alert" message is part of a pivot away from government-led collective action against the virus to government-advised personal responsibility, to absolve HMG of blame for continuing fatalities?

    It doesn't feel that way to me, but I'm interested in what other people think. Am I missing something?

    My view is that the Government knows the lockdown is essentially unenforceable any longer and hence they're subtly giving up enforcing it. So if it does get worse, the Government can blame the public as opposed to themselves and have more room to reintroduce the lockdown.
    I agree. Although it was never enforced in the first place
    I have no idea where we go from here. It seems the Government have decidto be as opaque as possible and will allow individuals and companies to draw their own conclusions.
    It is an abdication of responsibility and a possible recipe for social and workplace disorder. I am depressed about the future for the first time.
    This document tomorrow needs to be clear and needs to be explained properly.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 14,772
    kle4 said:

    I'm seeing claims that the "Stay Alert" message is part of a pivot away from government-led collective action against the virus to government-advised personal responsibility, to absolve HMG of blame for continuing fatalities?

    It doesn't feel that way to me, but I'm interested in what other people think. Am I missing something?

    I think the idea the government would be able to successfully pursue a strategy of 'it's all your fault, not ours' against the public, even if it were true, is somewhat unlikely, and therefore improbable that such is a strategy to absolve itself of blame. More likely would seem to be the idea that the government simply has limited control over the 60 million people it governs, it cannot watch them all the time, it cannot mandate their behaviour all the time, and so anything less simple than 'stay the f*ck home' requires trusting people, and its efforts to absolve itself of blame for any issues would be the simpler 'we did the best we could/there was nothing that could be done' route.
    Well, I do think the Trump government has made that pivot, but it's not blaming the public as a homogenous mass, it's inviting the majority of the public who won't die, or get seriously ill, to blame the minority who do for their personal failure to stay well.

    We see this sort of division and victim-blaming with all sorts of other things (e.g.unemployment, rape, chronic illnesses, etc), so I do think it can work. I just don't see Johnson casting off responsibility in the way Trump has done.
  • Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:
    Good decision. You probably get a slightly higher level of cooperation by not making it compulsory.
    It was recommended for shops in Scotland, but in my two visits to the supermarket since that recommendation I have observed fewer customers wearing masks than previously (and none of the staff).
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    dixiedean said:

    I'm seeing claims that the "Stay Alert" message is part of a pivot away from government-led collective action against the virus to government-advised personal responsibility, to absolve HMG of blame for continuing fatalities?

    It doesn't feel that way to me, but I'm interested in what other people think. Am I missing something?

    My view is that the Government knows the lockdown is essentially unenforceable any longer and hence they're subtly giving up enforcing it. So if it does get worse, the Government can blame the public as opposed to themselves and have more room to reintroduce the lockdown.
    I agree. Although it was never enforced in the first place
    I have no idea where we go from here. It seems the Government have decidto be as opaque as possible and will allow individuals and companies to draw their own conclusions.
    It is an abdication of responsibility and a possible recipe for social and workplace disorder. I am depressed about the future for the first time.
    This document tomorrow needs to be clear and needs to be explained properly.
    I dont see how the release of a lengthy document explaining matters tallies with the accusation of attempting to be as opaque as possible.

    It may be that it does not sufficiently explain matters but its release would suggest any such failure would be a competence issue not a deliberate effort to be opaque.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,840
    kle4 said:

    dixiedean said:

    I'm seeing claims that the "Stay Alert" message is part of a pivot away from government-led collective action against the virus to government-advised personal responsibility, to absolve HMG of blame for continuing fatalities?

    It doesn't feel that way to me, but I'm interested in what other people think. Am I missing something?

    My view is that the Government knows the lockdown is essentially unenforceable any longer and hence they're subtly giving up enforcing it. So if it does get worse, the Government can blame the public as opposed to themselves and have more room to reintroduce the lockdown.
    I agree. Although it was never enforced in the first place
    I have no idea where we go from here. It seems the Government have decidto be as opaque as possible and will allow individuals and companies to draw their own conclusions.
    It is an abdication of responsibility and a possible recipe for social and workplace disorder. I am depressed about the future for the first time.
    This document tomorrow needs to be clear and needs to be explained properly.
    I dont see how the release of a lengthy document explaining matters tallies with the accusation of attempting to be as opaque as possible.

    It may be that it does not sufficiently explain matters but its release would suggest any such failure would be a competence issue not a deliberate effort to be opaque.
    OK. Maybe I phrased it poorly, or am on a CV downer right now.
    The PM, in a speech watched by c 20 million chose to be opaque, because his need to be loved overrides his duty to lead.
    The document may be crystal but very few will read it.
    And the message, which is interpret this how you like is out there now.
  • MyBurningEarsMyBurningEars Posts: 3,651
    edited May 2020
    Andrew said:

    I'm seeing claims that the "Stay Alert" message is part of a pivot away from government-led collective action against the virus to government-advised personal responsibility, to absolve HMG of blame for continuing fatalities?

    Feels a bit like over-analysis to me. A slogan is inevitably going to get stale after a while, so dream up a new one.

    I just took this as "don't get complacent now".
    Aside from the staleness issue, a pivot in messaging was always going to be necessary at some point - the rules were going to change bit by bit, some personal common-sense would have to enter the equation in terms of how risks get balanced once there are fewer clear-cut blanket rules to rely on, and combining the newer more liberal or nuanced rules with a simplistic "STAY AT HOME" message is rife with potential for self-contradiction.

    To some extent that's even happening now with Sturgeon's determinedly pushing (even tweeting) the STAY AT HOME message, to emphasise that Scotland is not yet ready for a more nuanced message, while her government is also encouraging people to go outside and get more exercise... which is surely a more nuanced message, if not flatly contradictory with the supposedly vital importance of "staying at home". Exercise has been an inherent issue with "stay at home" all along, but it's certainly only going to get worse now. Not saying this as a piece of Nicola-knocking, more to point out that the days of the "stay at home" slogan have always been numbered, the messaging is going to have to start embracing greyer areas sooner rather than later, and I'm not sure it will make much difference whether that's today or in the next week or two.
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 3,853
    edited May 2020
    Doesn't that map just show that we got the data in quicker? And Z-score again FFS.

    Has the data for Italy and Spain even been collated yet?

    If the media spent less time fighting the Brexit wars and a bit more time learning about this one, we might be better informed.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,840
    dixiedean said:

    kle4 said:

    dixiedean said:

    I'm seeing claims that the "Stay Alert" message is part of a pivot away from government-led collective action against the virus to government-advised personal responsibility, to absolve HMG of blame for continuing fatalities?

    It doesn't feel that way to me, but I'm interested in what other people think. Am I missing something?

    My view is that the Government knows the lockdown is essentially unenforceable any longer and hence they're subtly giving up enforcing it. So if it does get worse, the Government can blame the public as opposed to themselves and have more room to reintroduce the lockdown.
    I agree. Although it was never enforced in the first place
    I have no idea where we go from here. It seems the Government have decidto be as opaque as possible and will allow individuals and companies to draw their own conclusions.
    It is an abdication of responsibility and a possible recipe for social and workplace disorder. I am depressed about the future for the first time.
    This document tomorrow needs to be clear and needs to be explained properly.
    I dont see how the release of a lengthy document explaining matters tallies with the accusation of attempting to be as opaque as possible.

    It may be that it does not sufficiently explain matters but its release would suggest any such failure would be a competence issue not a deliberate effort to be opaque.
    OK. Maybe I phrased it poorly, or am on a CV downer right now.
    The PM, in a speech watched by c 20 million chose to be opaque, because his need to be loved overrides his duty to lead.
    The document may be crystal but very few will read it.
    And the message, which is interpret this how you like is out there now.
    It is the PMs job, particularly in a national televised address, to supply answers, a plan of action, not raise yet more questions.
    You may not like the answers, but that is leadership. Thatcher would have, Churchill too. Blair on Iraq. No one doubted where they stood. And they were content to be judged, and pilloried on it.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900


    Has the data for Italy and Spain even been collated yet?

    Italy only until end March, and then not the whole country. Spain is pretty up-to-date though.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    HYUFD said:
    The airport test is interesting. Any details on that?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    One night out...

    The total number of cases linked to nightclubs in Itaewon in Seoul, visited by a 29-year-old patient earlier this month, increased to 54 as of noon Sunday in Seoul, according to the Korea Centers for Disease Control & Prevention’s Director-General Jung Eun-kyeong. Authorities are estimating between 6,000 to 7,000 could have been exposed to the virus from clubs between April 29 and May 6.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-09/south-korea-faces-new-flare-up-in-virus-cases-tied-to-nightclubs

    We aren't going back to normal life until there is a vaccine
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    RobD said:

    HYUFD said:
    The airport test is interesting. Any details on that?
    Watch NBC Nightly News I suppose
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 23,934

    First...as in first on with a mask and goggles before leaving the house.

    If HMG is serious about masks then it needs to improve supply and distribution to the public. Get them on the supermarket shelves and then mandate wearing them. Or continue with limited supplies and people wearing them wear they can find them, which is happening anyway without government action.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited May 2020
    HYUFD said:
    Erhhh don't the Chinese have that as well?

    And the US have 2 different machines that do tests in 15 mins.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712

    One night out...

    The total number of cases linked to nightclubs in Itaewon in Seoul, visited by a 29-year-old patient earlier this month, increased to 54 as of noon Sunday in Seoul, according to the Korea Centers for Disease Control & Prevention’s Director-General Jung Eun-kyeong. Authorities are estimating between 6,000 to 7,000 could have been exposed to the virus from clubs between April 29 and May 6.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-09/south-korea-faces-new-flare-up-in-virus-cases-tied-to-nightclubs

    We aren't going back to normal life until there is a vaccine

    If there is a vaccine.

    However clearly South Korean authorities have managed to track and trace those who met this patient at the nightclubs
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,265
    HYUFD said:
    A friend in Vienna says local media report that infections are starting to rise, but slowly so far. They've liberalised substantially (cafes open etc.) but have rigid social distancing rules - the Apple store has reopened (first in Europe - people desperate to replace dodgy phones) but only allows in a handful of people at a time, with gigantic queues unless you book in advance.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited May 2020
    HYUFD said:

    One night out...

    The total number of cases linked to nightclubs in Itaewon in Seoul, visited by a 29-year-old patient earlier this month, increased to 54 as of noon Sunday in Seoul, according to the Korea Centers for Disease Control & Prevention’s Director-General Jung Eun-kyeong. Authorities are estimating between 6,000 to 7,000 could have been exposed to the virus from clubs between April 29 and May 6.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-09/south-korea-faces-new-flare-up-in-virus-cases-tied-to-nightclubs

    We aren't going back to normal life until there is a vaccine

    If there is a vaccine.

    However clearly South Korean authorities have managed to track and trace those who met this patient at the nightclubs
    No apparently not. Even with SK amazing system, only traced 700 of them so far and already found 11 secondary infections.

    One issue is that they were gay clubs and the south koreans shall we say arent exactly enlightened when it comes to these things.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 23,934
    edited May 2020

    Andrew said:

    I'm seeing claims that the "Stay Alert" message is part of a pivot away from government-led collective action against the virus to government-advised personal responsibility, to absolve HMG of blame for continuing fatalities?

    Feels a bit like over-analysis to me. A slogan is inevitably going to get stale after a while, so dream up a new one.

    I just took this as "don't get complacent now".
    Aside from the staleness issue, a pivot in messaging was always going to be necessary at some point - the rules were going to change bit by bit, some personal common-sense would have to enter the equation in terms of how risks get balanced once there are fewer clear-cut blanket rules to rely on, and combining the newer more liberal or nuanced rules with a simplistic "STAY AT HOME" message is rife with potential for self-contradiction.

    To some extent that's even happening now with Sturgeon's determinedly pushing (even tweeting) the STAY AT HOME message, to emphasise that Scotland is not yet ready for a more nuanced message, while her government is also encouraging people to go outside and get more exercise... which is surely a more nuanced message, if not flatly contradictory with the supposedly vital importance of "staying at home". Exercise has been an inherent issue with "stay at home" all along, but it's certainly only going to get worse now. Not saying this as a piece of Nicola-knocking, more to point out that the days of the "stay at home" slogan have always been numbered, the messaging is going to have to start embracing greyer areas sooner rather than later, and I'm not sure it will make much difference whether that's today or in the next week or two.
    The new slogan is both vacuous and fatuous, as per the last couple of threads, and perhaps slightly muddied the waters because the Prime Minister's statement majored on Alert Levels, which use the word alert differently. The statement was at best woolly and one can't help thinking that when it was originally scheduled, something far more substantive was planned, but that some new facts (from Germany perhaps, or Cabinet disquiet as reported in the papers) prevented this, but HMG did not want to lose face by cancelling the statement.

    Perhaps this is too cynical and Monday's Commons statement will be more informative.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,136

    HYUFD said:
    A friend in Vienna says local media report that infections are starting to rise, but slowly so far. They've liberalised substantially (cafes open etc.) but have rigid social distancing rules - the Apple store has reopened (first in Europe - people desperate to replace dodgy phones) but only allows in a handful of people at a time, with gigantic queues unless you book in advance.
    With the rona "infections are starting to rise, but only slowly so far" is a story that doesn't have a happy ending.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274

    Andrew said:

    I'm seeing claims that the "Stay Alert" message is part of a pivot away from government-led collective action against the virus to government-advised personal responsibility, to absolve HMG of blame for continuing fatalities?

    Feels a bit like over-analysis to me. A slogan is inevitably going to get stale after a while, so dream up a new one.

    I just took this as "don't get complacent now".
    Aside from the staleness issue, a pivot in messaging was always going to be necessary at some point - the rules were going to change bit by bit, some personal common-sense would have to enter the equation in terms of how risks get balanced once there are fewer clear-cut blanket rules to rely on, and combining the newer more liberal or nuanced rules with a simplistic "STAY AT HOME" message is rife with potential for self-contradiction.

    To some extent that's even happening now with Sturgeon's determinedly pushing (even tweeting) the STAY AT HOME message, to emphasise that Scotland is not yet ready for a more nuanced message, while her government is also encouraging people to go outside and get more exercise... which is surely a more nuanced message, if not flatly contradictory with the supposedly vital importance of "staying at home". Exercise has been an inherent issue with "stay at home" all along, but it's certainly only going to get worse now. Not saying this as a piece of Nicola-knocking, more to point out that the days of the "stay at home" slogan have always been numbered, the messaging is going to have to start embracing greyer areas sooner rather than later, and I'm not sure it will make much difference whether that's today or in the next week or two.
    The new slogan is both vacuous and fatuous, as per the last couple of threads, and perhaps slightly muddied the waters because the Prime Minister's statement majored on Alert Levels, which use the word alert differently. The statement was at best woolly and one can't help thinking that when it was originally scheduled, something far more substantive was planned, but that some new facts (from Germany perhaps, or Cabinet disquiet as reported in the papers) prevented this, but HMG did not want to lose face by cancelling the statement.

    Perhaps this is too cynical and Monday's Commons statement will be more informative.
    I think the new slogan isnt great, but i also really think too much of made of these things. Hours and hours of coverage today discussing the word alert.

    When there are really big issues, testing taking too long, the app not
    working, still not got the tracing team hired, how are we actually going to enforce quarantine for new arrivals.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712

    HYUFD said:

    One night out...

    The total number of cases linked to nightclubs in Itaewon in Seoul, visited by a 29-year-old patient earlier this month, increased to 54 as of noon Sunday in Seoul, according to the Korea Centers for Disease Control & Prevention’s Director-General Jung Eun-kyeong. Authorities are estimating between 6,000 to 7,000 could have been exposed to the virus from clubs between April 29 and May 6.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-09/south-korea-faces-new-flare-up-in-virus-cases-tied-to-nightclubs

    We aren't going back to normal life until there is a vaccine

    If there is a vaccine.

    However clearly South Korean authorities have managed to track and trace those who met this patient at the nightclubs
    No apparently not. Even with SK amazing system, only traced 700 of them so far and already found 11 secondary infections.

    One issue is that they were gay clubs and the south koreans shall we say arent exactly enlightened when it comes to these things.
    If you are under 50 you have near zero chance of dying from Covid anyway so I have no doubt young people will return to nightclubs in due course, vaccine or no vaccine
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    One night out...

    The total number of cases linked to nightclubs in Itaewon in Seoul, visited by a 29-year-old patient earlier this month, increased to 54 as of noon Sunday in Seoul, according to the Korea Centers for Disease Control & Prevention’s Director-General Jung Eun-kyeong. Authorities are estimating between 6,000 to 7,000 could have been exposed to the virus from clubs between April 29 and May 6.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-09/south-korea-faces-new-flare-up-in-virus-cases-tied-to-nightclubs

    We aren't going back to normal life until there is a vaccine

    If there is a vaccine.

    However clearly South Korean authorities have managed to track and trace those who met this patient at the nightclubs
    No apparently not. Even with SK amazing system, only traced 700 of them so far and already found 11 secondary infections.

    One issue is that they were gay clubs and the south koreans shall we say arent exactly enlightened when it comes to these things.
    If you are under 50 you have near zero chance of dying from Covid anyway so I have no doubt young people will return to nightclubs in due course, vaccine or no vaccine
    That of course isnt the problem. It is when they then go to work or visit family.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    edited May 2020

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    One night out...

    The total number of cases linked to nightclubs in Itaewon in Seoul, visited by a 29-year-old patient earlier this month, increased to 54 as of noon Sunday in Seoul, according to the Korea Centers for Disease Control & Prevention’s Director-General Jung Eun-kyeong. Authorities are estimating between 6,000 to 7,000 could have been exposed to the virus from clubs between April 29 and May 6.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-09/south-korea-faces-new-flare-up-in-virus-cases-tied-to-nightclubs

    We aren't going back to normal life until there is a vaccine

    If there is a vaccine.

    However clearly South Korean authorities have managed to track and trace those who met this patient at the nightclubs
    No apparently not. Even with SK amazing system, only traced 700 of them so far and already found 11 secondary infections.

    One issue is that they were gay clubs and the south koreans shall we say arent exactly enlightened when it comes to these things.
    If you are under 50 you have near zero chance of dying from Covid anyway so I have no doubt young people will return to nightclubs in due course, vaccine or no vaccine
    That of course isnt the problem. It is when they then go to work or visit family.
    So what, their choice.

    At work there will be virtually nobody over 70 there anyway.

    Grandparents may have to isolate for longer or with strict social distancing but so be it
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 23,934

    Andrew said:

    I'm seeing claims that the "Stay Alert" message is part of a pivot away from government-led collective action against the virus to government-advised personal responsibility, to absolve HMG of blame for continuing fatalities?

    Feels a bit like over-analysis to me. A slogan is inevitably going to get stale after a while, so dream up a new one.

    I just took this as "don't get complacent now".
    Aside from the staleness issue, a pivot in messaging was always going to be necessary at some point - the rules were going to change bit by bit, some personal common-sense would have to enter the equation in terms of how risks get balanced once there are fewer clear-cut blanket rules to rely on, and combining the newer more liberal or nuanced rules with a simplistic "STAY AT HOME" message is rife with potential for self-contradiction.

    To some extent that's even happening now with Sturgeon's determinedly pushing (even tweeting) the STAY AT HOME message, to emphasise that Scotland is not yet ready for a more nuanced message, while her government is also encouraging people to go outside and get more exercise... which is surely a more nuanced message, if not flatly contradictory with the supposedly vital importance of "staying at home". Exercise has been an inherent issue with "stay at home" all along, but it's certainly only going to get worse now. Not saying this as a piece of Nicola-knocking, more to point out that the days of the "stay at home" slogan have always been numbered, the messaging is going to have to start embracing greyer areas sooner rather than later, and I'm not sure it will make much difference whether that's today or in the next week or two.
    The new slogan is both vacuous and fatuous, as per the last couple of threads, and perhaps slightly muddied the waters because the Prime Minister's statement majored on Alert Levels, which use the word alert differently. The statement was at best woolly and one can't help thinking that when it was originally scheduled, something far more substantive was planned, but that some new facts (from Germany perhaps, or Cabinet disquiet as reported in the papers) prevented this, but HMG did not want to lose face by cancelling the statement.

    Perhaps this is too cynical and Monday's Commons statement will be more informative.
    I think the new slogan isnt great, but i also really think too much of made of these things. Hours and hours of coverage today discussing the word alert.

    When there are really big issues, testing taking too long, the app not
    working, still not got the tracing team hired, how are we actually going to enforce quarantine for new arrivals.
    Agreed. The slogan thing blew up because of the number of government loyalists who piled in to defend it after some pretty mild criticisms. As you say, there are many substantive issues to be solved. As well as the test, track and trace issues you mention, PPE is still a problem, as are masks for the public, and what ought to be a public scandal over continued deaths in care homes. We also need more investigation of excess deaths (over normal) being greater here than elsewhere.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,136
    Well, it did...
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 12,883
    No. They hit a Hendijan class support - the Konorak. They are about 600t and look like the Isle of Wight ferry.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    edited May 2020


    Does Iran have a battleship?

    Nah, misuse of the word. Battleships got retired a while back, and there are hardly even many cruisers left - destroyers these days are so capable there's not much point building anything bigger (other than carriers).

  • MyBurningEarsMyBurningEars Posts: 3,651
    edited May 2020

    Andrew said:

    I'm seeing claims that the "Stay Alert" message is part of a pivot away from government-led collective action against the virus to government-advised personal responsibility, to absolve HMG of blame for continuing fatalities?

    Feels a bit like over-analysis to me. A slogan is inevitably going to get stale after a while, so dream up a new one.

    I just took this as "don't get complacent now".
    Aside from the staleness issue, a pivot in messaging was always going to be necessary at some point - the rules were going to change bit by bit, some personal common-sense would have to enter the equation in terms of how risks get balanced once there are fewer clear-cut blanket rules to rely on, and combining the newer more liberal or nuanced rules with a simplistic "STAY AT HOME" message is rife with potential for self-contradiction.

    To some extent that's even happening now with Sturgeon's determinedly pushing (even tweeting) the STAY AT HOME message, to emphasise that Scotland is not yet ready for a more nuanced message, while her government is also encouraging people to go outside and get more exercise... which is surely a more nuanced message, if not flatly contradictory with the supposedly vital importance of "staying at home". Exercise has been an inherent issue with "stay at home" all along, but it's certainly only going to get worse now. Not saying this as a piece of Nicola-knocking, more to point out that the days of the "stay at home" slogan have always been numbered, the messaging is going to have to start embracing greyer areas sooner rather than later, and I'm not sure it will make much difference whether that's today or in the next week or two.
    The new slogan is both vacuous and fatuous, as per the last couple of threads, and perhaps slightly muddied the waters because the Prime Minister's statement majored on Alert Levels, which use the word alert differently. The statement was at best woolly and one can't help thinking that when it was originally scheduled, something far more substantive was planned, but that some new facts (from Germany perhaps, or Cabinet disquiet as reported in the papers) prevented this, but HMG did not want to lose face by cancelling the statement.

    Perhaps this is too cynical and Monday's Commons statement will be more informative.
    I think the new slogan isnt great, but i also really think too much of made of these things. Hours and hours of coverage today discussing the word alert.

    snip.
    The hours of media coverage is an interesting point, because eventually words can mean what you want them to mean (if you've got a big comms team behind you and can place lots of public information films and post lots of ads and drive the media narrative somewhat, and especially if you pick a message and just keep drilling it home).

    Plenty of people, at least eventually, understood "STAY AT HOME" to mean "you don't have to stay at home 24/7 unless you're shielding, going to work is okay if you can't WFH, occasionally to the shops for supplies and - up to once daily - for exercise" even though the latter points all muddle the former. The more critical commentators were pointing out the contradiction between "stay at home" and "daily outdoor exercise" from the start.

    If we are going to accept more people are going to be spending more time outside home though, then the messaging really needs to adapt to that and focus more on just what those people should be doing once they are outside.

    Hopefully from HMG's point of view, "STAY ALERT" doesn't just emphasise that it's too early for complacency, but also provides a suitably omni-purpose skeleton onto which whatever meaning they wish to flesh it out with can be grafted via message repetition. Whether that's sticking to the two-metre rule, don't mingle with people from other households, be careful what you touch/hold, follow all safety precautions installed at work, perhaps eventually in certain circumstances "don't forget your mask/gloves"... "stay at home where possible" will certainly be part of that mix too. Just now only one part of that mix.

    In that respect "stay alert" may not be too bad a choice as a slogan, it sounds like pretty heavy stuff - something we need to take seriously - and to the extent it's vacuous or lacks substance and form, that also yields the plus point that it's flexible and free to be shaped and defined as the government require. My worry is that staying at home where possible, even eschewing your right to daily outdoor exercise, is the biggest single thing you can do to control your risk and the risk you pose to others. In a similar public health context it reminds me of car safety advice. We often hear messages like "don't drive while drunk, on the phone or texting", "always check your brakes, lights and tyre pressure before a long journey", "buy a car with safety kit like autonomous emergency braking and side airbags" but we rarely hear the one piece of safety advice which will halve your risk of death or serious injury in a car crash: "rejig your lifestyle so that you halve your annual mileage".
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 23,934

    The left are missing a huge opportunity right now. People are at risk from shitty bosses making them work in unsafe conditions, and the risk applies not only to the people at risk, but also, via contagion, to the rest of society.

    What we should be seeing everywhere is

    JOIN A UNION NOW [Click here]

    Not just that but WFH should have bosses paying for electricity & internet, as well as providing equipment like docking stations, second monitors and so on, and even furniture like office desks and chairs. There should also be protection against being forced to work out of hours without payment for on-call and overtime.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,286
    "Sweden’s Gambit

    Theodore Dalrymple"

    https://www.takimag.com/article/swedens-gambit/
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774
    edited May 2020

    HYUFD said:
    Erhhh don't the Chinese have that as well?

    And the US have 2 different machines that do tests in 15 mins.
    Yes
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774

    The left are missing a huge opportunity right now. People are at risk from shitty bosses making them work in unsafe conditions, and the risk applies not only to the people with shitty bosses, but also, via contagion, to the rest of society.

    What we should be seeing everywhere is

    JOIN A UNION NOW [Click here]

    I've asked my boss, and he just looked at me like I was mad.

    I'm considering quitting.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,136
    rcs1000 said:

    The left are missing a huge opportunity right now. People are at risk from shitty bosses making them work in unsafe conditions, and the risk applies not only to the people with shitty bosses, but also, via contagion, to the rest of society.

    What we should be seeing everywhere is

    JOIN A UNION NOW [Click here]

    I've asked my boss, and he just looked at me like I was mad.

    I'm considering quitting.
    I guess that like me you have a terrible boss who insists that you work whenever he feels like it?
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,136
    Andy_JS said:
    Bear in mind that Sullivan is in the US, so his basis for comparison is Donald Trump.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 23,934
    edited May 2020

    Andy_JS said:
    Bear in mind that Sullivan is in the US, so his basis for comparison is Donald Trump.
    Probably due to his recent illness, Boris has abandoned the lectern and is sitting down, and his lung capacity seems a bit below par so his speech sounds a bit like Jeremy Clarkson with pauses for breath at clause boundaries, perhaps hinting at a post-Downing Street career; come to think of it, didn't Boris used to write a parody motoring column in GQ or the Spectator or somewhere?

    Nonetheless, and even though it still seems, as stated earlier, as if much of substance was stripped out during the week, it was an impressive performance, in style and even in content in addressing the problems we still face. Huzzah for Bozza.
  • Wow. My Dad's 15 years older than Blair and looks it. He also looks way more healthier (or at least better rested.)
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,286
    edited May 2020
    RobD said:

    HYUFD said:
    The airport test is interesting. Any details on that?
    When they talk about a test, I always wonder whether they mean a test to inform you whether you've got it now or one to say whether you've had it in the past.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614

    HYUFD said:
    Erhhh don't the Chinese have that as well?

    And the US have 2 different machines that do tests in 15 mins.
    Joe Rogan was talking about the 15-minute test - everyone who turns up at his studio for an interview gets met by a doctor!

    Not seen many more details of how it works though, but would obviously be very useful to use at airports and for people who have unavoidable contact with many others.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,739

  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 23,934
    Stay alert
    Control the virus
    Save Lives

    OK I was wrong. It does make sense. Just not for the public. Boris's new slogan is, or should be, aimed at SAGE and the government itself. For them, it is meaningful. They must stay alert to changes in the data, to new information from abroad, from supply chains, hospitals and care homes. They must use tests, therapies, and soon vaccines to control the virus. They must change our behaviour and restructure the economy, impose and remove restrictions to control the virus. They must aim to save lives.

    It might in weeks to come, as lockdown is lifted and the economy reopens, make some degree of sense to employers and similar organisations.

    But for the rest of us poor saps, it remains both fatuous and vacuous. It is not that we cannot act on those directions but that they are meaningless in this context. For us, the great unwashed, the voter on the Clapham omnibus, it is drivel.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    One night out...

    The total number of cases linked to nightclubs in Itaewon in Seoul, visited by a 29-year-old patient earlier this month, increased to 54 as of noon Sunday in Seoul, according to the Korea Centers for Disease Control & Prevention’s Director-General Jung Eun-kyeong. Authorities are estimating between 6,000 to 7,000 could have been exposed to the virus from clubs between April 29 and May 6.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-09/south-korea-faces-new-flare-up-in-virus-cases-tied-to-nightclubs

    We aren't going back to normal life until there is a vaccine

    If there is a vaccine.

    However clearly South Korean authorities have managed to track and trace those who met this patient at the nightclubs
    No apparently not. Even with SK amazing system, only traced 700 of them so far and already found 11 secondary infections.

    One issue is that they were gay clubs and the south koreans shall we say arent exactly enlightened when it comes to these things.
    If you are under 50 you have near zero chance of dying from Covid anyway so I have no doubt young people will return to nightclubs in due course, vaccine or no vaccine
    As Korea has shown, nightclubs are almost the perfect infection vector - but kids will want to party as we move into the summer, and they’re inventive enough to find ways. Might a solution be to think back to 1988, and the raves in fields?

    https://capx.co/as-we-lift-the-lockdown-remember-that-fortune-favours-the-rave/
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,753
    Andy_JS said:

    "Sweden’s Gambit

    Theodore Dalrymple"

    https://www.takimag.com/article/swedens-gambit/

    Taki has a mag.

    Christ.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,961
    edited May 2020

    One night out...

    The total number of cases linked to nightclubs in Itaewon in Seoul, visited by a 29-year-old patient earlier this month, increased to 54 as of noon Sunday in Seoul, according to the Korea Centers for Disease Control & Prevention’s Director-General Jung Eun-kyeong. Authorities are estimating between 6,000 to 7,000 could have been exposed to the virus from clubs between April 29 and May 6.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-09/south-korea-faces-new-flare-up-in-virus-cases-tied-to-nightclubs

    We aren't going back to normal life until there is a vaccine

    Like I said yesterday, you won't be going to a night club again until we have a period of zero infections. The very last places to re-open. Officially.

    Plod is going to have a summer of fun tracking down 80s/90s style raves. Although now, GCHQ will no doubt help with tracking a mass of mobile phones to a field in Berkshire....
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,961
    Scott_xP said:


    In this case, far more telling of the cartoonists creative process.

    And of those who retweet it.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    Scott_xP said:


    What do they think they might achieve, publishing such lampooning cartoons in national newspapers? It's almost as if certain sections of the media are deliberately setting out to undermine the government's message.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,136

    Plod is going to have a summer of fun tracking down 80s/90s style raves. Although now, GCHQ will no doubt help with tracking a mass of mobile phones to a field in Berkshire....

    They'll leave them alone unless the country has a complete cretin for a Home Secretary.

    OK, I know it currently does, but hopefully she'll have been replaced by then...
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,165
    We should have strengthened the lockdown and taken TV broadcasters off the air. It's too risky having people getting too close to Piers Morgan.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,961
    No doubt, the Iranians will blame the Great Satan, hacking their command systems.

    And who knows, there might just be some very bored kids in Wyoming right now.
  • RattersRatters Posts: 756
    Would a better slogan have been 'Socially distance, control the virus, save lives'?

    It would have been much clearer on the key message that, although certain things are being relaxed (more people back to work, more exercise), these are conditional on social distancing being maintained.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,753
    edited May 2020
    tlg86 said:

    We should have strengthened the lockdown and taken TV broadcasters off the air. It's too risky having people getting too close to Piers Morgan.

    The Conservative government seems to have taken the unilateral decision to avoid Piers already. Presumably they're just expecting everyone else to stay alert to the danger of Piers Morgan.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,753
    edited May 2020
    'Stay alert, don't be like me, several members of my government and the heir to the throne'

    https://twitter.com/sturdyAlex/status/1259720316915417089?s=20
  • GadflyGadfly Posts: 1,191

    One night out...

    The total number of cases linked to nightclubs in Itaewon in Seoul, visited by a 29-year-old patient earlier this month, increased to 54 as of noon Sunday in Seoul, according to the Korea Centers for Disease Control & Prevention’s Director-General Jung Eun-kyeong. Authorities are estimating between 6,000 to 7,000 could have been exposed to the virus from clubs between April 29 and May 6.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-09/south-korea-faces-new-flare-up-in-virus-cases-tied-to-nightclubs

    We aren't going back to normal life until there is a vaccine

    Now up to 79 cases.

    http://www.koreaherald.com/view.php?ud=20200511000575
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,961

    'Don't be like me and several members of my government'

    https://twitter.com/sturdyAlex/status/1259720316915417089?s=20

    We don't know that Boris infected anyone. We do know, for example, that the Matt Hancock was meeting everyone else in that same fetid swamp of Westminster. Or maybe Nadine was Parliament's "patient zero".

    A tweet with no underlying thought other than a glib attack on the PM.

    Ditto the retweet.

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    Scott_xP said:
    The BBC hardly helped matters here with their Conga and Cosham coverage
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,961
    Scott_xP said:
    Don't worry, NHS workers, those same people at the street parties will be out clapping for you on Thursday....
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 14,915
    I'm worried I might have caught it while I was asleep. Hard to stay alert during the night.
  • Fysics_TeacherFysics_Teacher Posts: 6,060
    Here is the BBC version of the Iranian incident:
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-52612511

    TL;DR version: they test fired a missile at a target before the ship that towed it into position could get out of the way and hit her instead. The Iranian military are describing this as a “collision”.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688

    I'm worried I might have caught it while I was asleep. Hard to stay alert during the night.

    https://twitter.com/DrDavidJeffery/status/1259476820010901504?s=20
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,753

    'Don't be like me and several members of my government'

    https://twitter.com/sturdyAlex/status/1259720316915417089?s=20

    We don't know that Boris infected anyone. We do know, for example, that the Matt Hancock was meeting everyone else in that same fetid swamp of Westminster. Or maybe Nadine was Parliament's "patient zero".

    A tweet with no underlying thought other than a glib attack on the PM.

    Ditto the retweet.

    Touchy..

    I see in these debased times that the concept of 'the buck stops here' has been transformed into 'the outbreak didn't start here'.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,722
    Good morning everyone. Much brighter morning here than I at any rate was led to expect. So at least the weather outlook isn't too bad.

    As far as the news is concerned, to my surprise I feel a little sorry for Boris. He wanted to be PM, he schemed and plotted to get the job, and very shortly after he finally achieved his ambition he was faced with a situation with which, I suspect, even he knows, he is totally unsuited to coping.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    I think Katya Adler really hit the nail on the head last night. Governments have generally had support during Phase 1 Lockdown. However, once they begin to relax things and people feel confused, even over the bleedin' obvious messages like 'stay alert,' then support slides away.

    We enter greater uncertainty and the Government can't provide people with all the reassurance they need. Their basic need of security is threatened.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614

    Here is the BBC version of the Iranian incident:
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-52612511

    TL;DR version: they test fired a missile at a target before the ship that towed it into position could get out of the way and hit her instead. The Iranian military are describing this as a “collision”.

    Err, whoops! Isn't it kinda military exercise 101, to make sure the range is completely clear before firing live ammunition?
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,037

    Good morning everyone. Much brighter morning here than I at any rate was led to expect. So at least the weather outlook isn't too bad.

    As far as the news is concerned, to my surprise I feel a little sorry for Boris. He wanted to be PM, he schemed and plotted to get the job, and very shortly after he finally achieved his ambition he was faced with a situation with which, I suspect, even he knows, he is totally unsuited to coping.

    +1. Nailed it. The lying disingenuous fat git is totally unsuitable at the best of times, let alone when this country is going through a national crisis. However a country sadly deserves the leaders it gets...
This discussion has been closed.