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SystemSystem Posts: 8,258
edited May 14 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why it could be politically challenging prioritising the economy over people’s health

By far the biggest decision ministers will have to take over the coronavirus pandemic is when to ease the restrictions in order to to boost the economy once again. This is becoming increasingly urgent because of the sheer cost of so many being placed effectively on the government payroll

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Comments

  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 13,895
    It's kind of weird to talk about this as if it's a trade-off, if you don't suppress the virus the economy will suppress itself.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 13,895
    edited May 14
    Poll discussed on the last thread here (the one with the terrible swing state numbers for Biden):
    http://cdn.cnn.com/cnn/2020/images/05/13/rel5c.-.2020.pdf

    Also has VP approval ratings:
    Harris: -1% (15% never heard of her)
    Warren: -2% (28% never heard of her)
    KLOBUCHAR: +7% (38% never heard of her)
    Adams: +3% (43% never heard of her)
    Whitmer: -1% (59% never heard of her)
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 5,533
    "Sunlight and fresh air can protect against coronavirus, Sage adviser tells MPs"

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/05/13/sunlight-fresh-air-can-protect-against-coronavirus-sage-adviser/
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 30,905
    Andy_JS said:

    "Sunlight and fresh air can protect against coronavirus, Sage adviser tells MPs"

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/05/13/sunlight-fresh-air-can-protect-against-coronavirus-sage-adviser/

    Sunlight kills virus shocker.
  • fox327fox327 Posts: 161
    edited May 14
    These are the current poll findings. We are still in the early stages of this crisis, as at the start of March life was almost normal. People keep saying "Don't assume that there will be a vaccine", but I think most people expect there will be one by the end of next year. If we don't get a vaccine we will have to live with this virus long-term and that is a very long time. There will be plenty of time for the opinion polls to move.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 21,316
    More pertinently, saving lives and saving the economy are not mutually exclusive priorities; they ought to be complementary:

  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 4,669
    fox327 said:

    These are the current poll findings. We are still in the early stages of this crisis, as at the start of March life was almost normal. People keep saying "Don't assume that there will be a vaccine", but I think most people expect there will be one by the end of next year. If we don't get a vaccine we will have to live with this virus long-term and that is a very long time. There will be plenty of time for the opinion polls to move.

    Agreed. The sticky numbers are likely to last precisely as long as the furlough scheme and other support mechanisms do.

    The quarter-or-so of the workforce that is currently subsisting on wages paid by Government, mortgage holidays and protection from eviction won't be quite so keen on sitting at home when they're trying to feed the kids on Universal Credit and being threatened with being thrown out into the street.

    However long the Government attempts to string these schemes out for, the supply of money isn't infinite. Logically, at some point, they will have to stop - and what are the chances that we will develop a silver bullet vaccine and distribute it throughout the population before that happens? Not great, one would assume.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 18,502
    Good morning fellow Pb-ers. Fine bright morning here, but colder than one would wish for Mid May.

    On topic, I'm starting to have some concerns about SAGE; how independent of government is it. Really.
    I don't wish to suggest anything, but I'm just getting a bit concerned.

    Another concern is the daily Covid-19 Press Conference. Do we really need all the detailed figures, especially when we now have cause to doubt their accuracy to the last digit? And do we really need daily ritual obeisance to the 'heroes' of the NHS. Especially when many of them are being charged significant sums as insurance against them or their families having to use the services they are providing.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 13,729
    FPT:
    isam said:
    If a decent number of the excess deaths are not COVID-19, then the excess deaths stats might go negative in the next few months depending on how COVID-19 develops.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 21,316

    fox327 said:

    These are the current poll findings. We are still in the early stages of this crisis, as at the start of March life was almost normal. People keep saying "Don't assume that there will be a vaccine", but I think most people expect there will be one by the end of next year. If we don't get a vaccine we will have to live with this virus long-term and that is a very long time. There will be plenty of time for the opinion polls to move.

    Agreed. The sticky numbers are likely to last precisely as long as the furlough scheme and other support mechanisms do.

    The quarter-or-so of the workforce that is currently subsisting on wages paid by Government, mortgage holidays and protection from eviction won't be quite so keen on sitting at home when they're trying to feed the kids on Universal Credit and being threatened with being thrown out into the street.

    However long the Government attempts to string these schemes out for, the supply of money isn't infinite. Logically, at some point, they will have to stop - and what are the chances that we will develop a silver bullet vaccine and distribute it throughout the population before that happens? Not great, one would assume.
    That is to assume that nothing outside of the development of a vaccine is going on, of course.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 13,729
    edited May 14

    fox327 said:

    These are the current poll findings. We are still in the early stages of this crisis, as at the start of March life was almost normal. People keep saying "Don't assume that there will be a vaccine", but I think most people expect there will be one by the end of next year. If we don't get a vaccine we will have to live with this virus long-term and that is a very long time. There will be plenty of time for the opinion polls to move.

    Agreed. The sticky numbers are likely to last precisely as long as the furlough scheme and other support mechanisms do.

    The quarter-or-so of the workforce that is currently subsisting on wages paid by Government, mortgage holidays and protection from eviction won't be quite so keen on sitting at home when they're trying to feed the kids on Universal Credit and being threatened with being thrown out into the street.

    However long the Government attempts to string these schemes out for, the supply of money isn't infinite. Logically, at some point, they will have to stop - and what are the chances that we will develop a silver bullet vaccine and distribute it throughout the population before that happens? Not great, one would assume.
    I'm surprised no politician (i.e. the LOTO) has questioned the fairness of paying some people £2,500 a month whilst others have to make do with universal credit.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 4,669
    tlg86 said:

    FPT:

    isam said:
    If a decent number of the excess deaths are not COVID-19, then the excess deaths stats might go negative in the next few months depending on how COVID-19 develops.
    I've suspected for some time that the measures to tackle the virus would kill more people than the disease itself, but I was thinking more of the medium and long term effects of impoverishment, and of delayed and cancelled diagnosis and treatment of other illnesses.

    However, it would seem that the cumulative effects of non-Covid patients being thrown out of hospitals in haste and people with acute symptoms not presenting for treatment has already done a huge amount of damage.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 21,316
    tlg86 said:

    fox327 said:

    These are the current poll findings. We are still in the early stages of this crisis, as at the start of March life was almost normal. People keep saying "Don't assume that there will be a vaccine", but I think most people expect there will be one by the end of next year. If we don't get a vaccine we will have to live with this virus long-term and that is a very long time. There will be plenty of time for the opinion polls to move.

    Agreed. The sticky numbers are likely to last precisely as long as the furlough scheme and other support mechanisms do.

    The quarter-or-so of the workforce that is currently subsisting on wages paid by Government, mortgage holidays and protection from eviction won't be quite so keen on sitting at home when they're trying to feed the kids on Universal Credit and being threatened with being thrown out into the street.

    However long the Government attempts to string these schemes out for, the supply of money isn't infinite. Logically, at some point, they will have to stop - and what are the chances that we will develop a silver bullet vaccine and distribute it throughout the population before that happens? Not great, one would assume.
    I'm surprised no politician (i.e. the LOTO) has questioned the fairness of paying some people £2,500 a month whilst others have to make do with universal credit.
    Should it carry on beyond a couple more months, they undoubtedly will.
    This was a sensible emergency response; it cannot carry on indefinitely. Sunak has bought himself a couple of months - let’s hope he uses it well (and better than the lockdown months were used in getting together test/track/trace).
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 4,669
    Nigelb said:

    fox327 said:

    These are the current poll findings. We are still in the early stages of this crisis, as at the start of March life was almost normal. People keep saying "Don't assume that there will be a vaccine", but I think most people expect there will be one by the end of next year. If we don't get a vaccine we will have to live with this virus long-term and that is a very long time. There will be plenty of time for the opinion polls to move.

    Agreed. The sticky numbers are likely to last precisely as long as the furlough scheme and other support mechanisms do.

    The quarter-or-so of the workforce that is currently subsisting on wages paid by Government, mortgage holidays and protection from eviction won't be quite so keen on sitting at home when they're trying to feed the kids on Universal Credit and being threatened with being thrown out into the street.

    However long the Government attempts to string these schemes out for, the supply of money isn't infinite. Logically, at some point, they will have to stop - and what are the chances that we will develop a silver bullet vaccine and distribute it throughout the population before that happens? Not great, one would assume.
    That is to assume that nothing outside of the development of a vaccine is going on, of course.
    If the quest for a vaccine is frustrated then, yes, an effective treatment that's at least good enough to keep most patients out of intensive care would also allow something like normal life to resume - but that's not coming along in the next five minutes either.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 15,656
    Nigelb said:
    It appears to be increasingly common, but a few weeks post virus. New York has quite a big outbreak.

  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 4,669
    Nigelb said:

    tlg86 said:

    fox327 said:

    These are the current poll findings. We are still in the early stages of this crisis, as at the start of March life was almost normal. People keep saying "Don't assume that there will be a vaccine", but I think most people expect there will be one by the end of next year. If we don't get a vaccine we will have to live with this virus long-term and that is a very long time. There will be plenty of time for the opinion polls to move.

    Agreed. The sticky numbers are likely to last precisely as long as the furlough scheme and other support mechanisms do.

    The quarter-or-so of the workforce that is currently subsisting on wages paid by Government, mortgage holidays and protection from eviction won't be quite so keen on sitting at home when they're trying to feed the kids on Universal Credit and being threatened with being thrown out into the street.

    However long the Government attempts to string these schemes out for, the supply of money isn't infinite. Logically, at some point, they will have to stop - and what are the chances that we will develop a silver bullet vaccine and distribute it throughout the population before that happens? Not great, one would assume.
    I'm surprised no politician (i.e. the LOTO) has questioned the fairness of paying some people £2,500 a month whilst others have to make do with universal credit.
    Should it carry on beyond a couple more months, they undoubtedly will.
    This was a sensible emergency response; it cannot carry on indefinitely. Sunak has bought himself a couple of months - let’s hope he uses it well (and better than the lockdown months were used in getting together test/track/trace).
    He's extended the job retention scheme to the end of October, so on that front - and assuming he can't find an extra 77 squillion quid down the back of the sofa to keep it going into 2021 - then the Government has until mid-September to get as much as possible of the economy up and running again. After that, there will be a big wave of 45-day redundancy notices, and I think the unemployed are going to be abandoned to the mercies of the system.

    Whether the protections against rental evictions and the mortgage holidays will last even that long, who can say?
  • rjkrjk Posts: 18
    Early serological tests from Spain and France indicate that maybe 5% of the population has been infected. This would give us an infection fatality rate of 1.3-1.5%.

    This seems dangerous enough that "let it rip" strategies can't possibly work. The public will vote with their feet and stay home, leaving us in an economic depression until a comprehensive solution is found.

    This means that we need a vaccine, which itself has to be safe, tested, and manufactured at enormous scale, which could feasibly be 18 months away. Or we need an extremely efficient testing and tracing system that can hold the number of active cases down to a very low level, enough that people feel safe to resume a semblance of normality.

    On the one hand, these are tremendous undertakings. The institutions and cultural practices we'd need to maintain very low levels of infection without a vaccine would need to be put in place. In short, we'd need to learn how to do what Taiwan and South Korea are doing, and fast. On the other hand, the cost of *not* doing these things can be measured in the tens, if not hundreds, of billions of pounds.

    I think the header presents a false choice, because the government can't easily force the public to run the gauntlet of the virus. There is no choice that saves the economy at the cost of 1.5% infection fatality rate. Polling shows overwhelming support for the lockdowns. The choice is between serious efforts to control the virus, effective enough that the public can put their trust in them, or economic depression until we get a vaccine, and we don't know when that will be.

    This isn't really a party political question. I don't get the sense that the opposition has grappled hard with this either. However, one of the strands of thought in Cummings-Johnsonism is that the British state has become weak and ineffective, incapable of pursuing ambitious projects, stuck with "managed decline" as a doctrine. We have been presented with a crisis that calls for an ambitious response, not "managed die-offs" where we allow everyone to succumb to a virus, just slowly enough that we don't run out of hospital beds or have to dig mass graves. If they're serious about building state capacity to tackle 21st-century challenges, this would be one way to show it.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 26,150
    edited May 14
    Andy_JS said:

    "Sunlight and fresh air can protect against coronavirus, Sage adviser tells MPs"

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/05/13/sunlight-fresh-air-can-protect-against-coronavirus-sage-adviser/

    On a possibly related point, Tim Harford was saying on R4 yesterday that early research suggests a correlation between low vitamin D and likelihood of catching the virus - but hasn’t yet dug into the likelihood of cross correlation (D levels being a by product of some other causal factor) or indeed causality (getting the virus depresses Vit D).
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 15,656
    tlg86 said:

    FPT:

    isam said:
    If a decent number of the excess deaths are not COVID-19, then the excess deaths stats might go negative in the next few months depending on how COVID-19 develops.
    We know that lockdown measures have applied everywhere, but that the excess mortality has not been evenly distributed. It occurs in the same places as confirmed Covid-19 deaths.

    I suspect that the vast majority will be unrecognised Covid-19. We increasingly see Covid-19 presenting as vascular disease etc.

    As I have pointed out a number of times
    and @Cyclefree did in her header, the stay away message from 111 may well be part of the problem.

    There will be others, of course like @dixiedean father, and I do worry about some of my patients with long term conditions in lockdown.

  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789
    Given that perhaps 40% of the population thinks that if one sits one ones arse with the door locked, claps like a seal occasionally (checking to make sure that clapping is visible) and have someone else pay your bills it will all go away, this is perhaps hardly a surprise.

  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 28,303
    tlg86 said:

    fox327 said:

    These are the current poll findings. We are still in the early stages of this crisis, as at the start of March life was almost normal. People keep saying "Don't assume that there will be a vaccine", but I think most people expect there will be one by the end of next year. If we don't get a vaccine we will have to live with this virus long-term and that is a very long time. There will be plenty of time for the opinion polls to move.

    Agreed. The sticky numbers are likely to last precisely as long as the furlough scheme and other support mechanisms do.

    The quarter-or-so of the workforce that is currently subsisting on wages paid by Government, mortgage holidays and protection from eviction won't be quite so keen on sitting at home when they're trying to feed the kids on Universal Credit and being threatened with being thrown out into the street.

    However long the Government attempts to string these schemes out for, the supply of money isn't infinite. Logically, at some point, they will have to stop - and what are the chances that we will develop a silver bullet vaccine and distribute it throughout the population before that happens? Not great, one would assume.
    I'm surprised no politician (i.e. the LOTO) has questioned the fairness of paying some people £2,500 a month whilst others have to make do with universal credit.
    It is bizarre for sure
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 59,312
    Foxy said:

    tlg86 said:

    FPT:

    isam said:
    If a decent number of the excess deaths are not COVID-19, then the excess deaths stats might go negative in the next few months depending on how COVID-19 develops.
    We know that lockdown measures have applied everywhere, but that the excess mortality has not been evenly distributed. It occurs in the same places as confirmed Covid-19 deaths.

    I suspect that the vast majority will be unrecognised Covid-19. We increasingly see Covid-19 presenting as vascular disease etc.

    As I have pointed out a number of times
    and @Cyclefree did in her header, the stay away message from 111 may well be part of the problem.

    There will be others, of course like @dixiedean father, and I do worry about some of my patients with long term conditions in lockdown.

    The virus will die witht he host won't it ?
    Or is serology in a post mortem possible. Also if the dieees are very old that won't take place I think ?
    Correlation with existing 'rona cases might be the best guide perhaps ?
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 2,221
    Nigelb said:
    Just in time for the kids as the government makes them go back to school. On that topic, very mixed views among fellow year 6 parents over whether they will comply on June 1. We are leaning towards sending him to school but really conflicted and not sure yet. If he caught it and developed these symptoms we'd never be able to live with ourselves (I recognise it's a small risk, obvs, but you don't take even small risks when it comes to your children's health).
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 2,221
    matt said:

    Given that perhaps 40% of the population thinks that if one sits one ones arse with the door locked, claps like a seal occasionally (checking to make sure that clapping is visible) and have someone else pay your bills it will all go away, this is perhaps hardly a surprise.

    Why shouldn't they believe it? You are describing the public health strategy for reducing the spread of the disease as recommended by scientists everywhere.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 28,124
    edited May 14
    tlg86 said:

    fox327 said:

    These are the current poll findings. We are still in the early stages of this crisis, as at the start of March life was almost normal. People keep saying "Don't assume that there will be a vaccine", but I think most people expect there will be one by the end of next year. If we don't get a vaccine we will have to live with this virus long-term and that is a very long time. There will be plenty of time for the opinion polls to move.

    Agreed. The sticky numbers are likely to last precisely as long as the furlough scheme and other support mechanisms do.

    The quarter-or-so of the workforce that is currently subsisting on wages paid by Government, mortgage holidays and protection from eviction won't be quite so keen on sitting at home when they're trying to feed the kids on Universal Credit and being threatened with being thrown out into the street.

    However long the Government attempts to string these schemes out for, the supply of money isn't infinite. Logically, at some point, they will have to stop - and what are the chances that we will develop a silver bullet vaccine and distribute it throughout the population before that happens? Not great, one would assume.
    I'm surprised no politician (i.e. the LOTO) has questioned the fairness of paying some people £2,500 a month whilst others have to make do with universal credit.
    Starmer might be concerned that if he does that, the government response would be to put everyone on universal credit (and blame him for it). It would be hugely damaging, very costly in the long run and incredibly stupid, but we are talking about a cabinet who think Dominic Cummings knows what he’s doing.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 2,221
    malcolmg said:

    tlg86 said:

    fox327 said:

    These are the current poll findings. We are still in the early stages of this crisis, as at the start of March life was almost normal. People keep saying "Don't assume that there will be a vaccine", but I think most people expect there will be one by the end of next year. If we don't get a vaccine we will have to live with this virus long-term and that is a very long time. There will be plenty of time for the opinion polls to move.

    Agreed. The sticky numbers are likely to last precisely as long as the furlough scheme and other support mechanisms do.

    The quarter-or-so of the workforce that is currently subsisting on wages paid by Government, mortgage holidays and protection from eviction won't be quite so keen on sitting at home when they're trying to feed the kids on Universal Credit and being threatened with being thrown out into the street.

    However long the Government attempts to string these schemes out for, the supply of money isn't infinite. Logically, at some point, they will have to stop - and what are the chances that we will develop a silver bullet vaccine and distribute it throughout the population before that happens? Not great, one would assume.
    I'm surprised no politician (i.e. the LOTO) has questioned the fairness of paying some people £2,500 a month whilst others have to make do with universal credit.
    It is bizarre for sure
    The government's fear is that if too many people experience universal credit they won't be able to use the "sleeping off a life on benefits" crap anymore because the electorate will know how miserly our so called safety net has actually become.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 15,656
    Pulpstar said:

    Foxy said:

    tlg86 said:

    FPT:

    isam said:
    If a decent number of the excess deaths are not COVID-19, then the excess deaths stats might go negative in the next few months depending on how COVID-19 develops.
    We know that lockdown measures have applied everywhere, but that the excess mortality has not been evenly distributed. It occurs in the same places as confirmed Covid-19 deaths.

    I suspect that the vast majority will be unrecognised Covid-19. We increasingly see Covid-19 presenting as vascular disease etc.

    As I have pointed out a number of times
    and @Cyclefree did in her header, the stay away message from 111 may well be part of the problem.

    There will be others, of course like @dixiedean father, and I do worry about some of my patients with long term conditions in lockdown.

    The virus will die witht he host won't it ?
    Or is serology in a post mortem possible. Also if the dieees are very old that won't take place I think ?
    Correlation with existing 'rona cases might be the best guide perhaps ?
    There will be no way to retrospectively diagnose, not least because many will have been cremated.

    We can only estimate numbers.
  • fox327fox327 Posts: 161
    While exercising yesterday, I happened to pass my local NHS hospital which I know very well. It was almost deserted with no patients, visitors or members of staff visible and almost no one waiting for a bus. It has been shut down like a restaurant. Private hospitals are shut, opticians, dentists, etc.

    Why? The top priorities of the NHS are to stop its staff from being overwhelmed and to protect its monopoly, even above saving lives it appears. There are now questions being asked as to why COVID patients were discharged into care homes while being potentially infectious. Later we can expect questions about why the NHS was shut down for months, leading to a huge increase in mortality from causes other than COVID. NHS managers need to be held to account for their actions being in the public interest rather than just being in the NHS's interest.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 28,303

    malcolmg said:

    tlg86 said:

    fox327 said:

    These are the current poll findings. We are still in the early stages of this crisis, as at the start of March life was almost normal. People keep saying "Don't assume that there will be a vaccine", but I think most people expect there will be one by the end of next year. If we don't get a vaccine we will have to live with this virus long-term and that is a very long time. There will be plenty of time for the opinion polls to move.

    Agreed. The sticky numbers are likely to last precisely as long as the furlough scheme and other support mechanisms do.

    The quarter-or-so of the workforce that is currently subsisting on wages paid by Government, mortgage holidays and protection from eviction won't be quite so keen on sitting at home when they're trying to feed the kids on Universal Credit and being threatened with being thrown out into the street.

    However long the Government attempts to string these schemes out for, the supply of money isn't infinite. Logically, at some point, they will have to stop - and what are the chances that we will develop a silver bullet vaccine and distribute it throughout the population before that happens? Not great, one would assume.
    I'm surprised no politician (i.e. the LOTO) has questioned the fairness of paying some people £2,500 a month whilst others have to make do with universal credit.
    It is bizarre for sure
    The government's fear is that if too many people experience universal credit they won't be able to use the "sleeping off a life on benefits" crap anymore because the electorate will know how miserly our so called safety net has actually become.
    Certainly be a wake up call for lots of Tories that life on UC is not a bed of roses in almost all cases
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 2,759
    Foxy said:

    tlg86 said:

    FPT:

    isam said:
    If a decent number of the excess deaths are not COVID-19, then the excess deaths stats might go negative in the next few months depending on how COVID-19 develops.
    We know that lockdown measures have applied everywhere, but that the excess mortality has not been evenly distributed. It occurs in the same places as confirmed Covid-19 deaths.

    I suspect that the vast majority will be unrecognised Covid-19. We increasingly see Covid-19 presenting as vascular disease etc.

    As I have pointed out a number of times
    and @Cyclefree did in her header, the stay away message from 111 may well be part of the problem.
    As I posted a couple of days ago, two weeks ago I was quickly diagnosed with a vascular problem. It is easily treatable but it was important to get an early diagnosis. It scares me to think that there is a "parallel me" in England, in my situation, who has not gone to the doctor's, has not have a blood test and so the problem has not yet been diagnosed.

    This "stay away" message sounds very dangerous to me.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 18,502
    Foxy said:

    tlg86 said:

    FPT:

    isam said:
    If a decent number of the excess deaths are not COVID-19, then the excess deaths stats might go negative in the next few months depending on how COVID-19 develops.
    We know that lockdown measures have applied everywhere, but that the excess mortality has not been evenly distributed. It occurs in the same places as confirmed Covid-19 deaths.

    I suspect that the vast majority will be unrecognised Covid-19. We increasingly see Covid-19 presenting as vascular disease etc.

    As I have pointed out a number of times
    and @Cyclefree did in her header, the stay away message from 111 may well be part of the problem.

    There will be others, of course like @dixiedean father, and I do worry about some of my patients with long term conditions in lockdown.

    On that last point, I'm expecting an appointment at any moment for a prostate cancer review...... due mid-late June, and the appointments usually come through 30 days before. I'm also asthmatic, which I can manage well. I tried to visit a GP the other day for something I was concerned about and the consultation was over the phone, not even Zoom. In my once upon a time, life, long, long ago, as a community pharmacist I really didn't like being asked about conditions over the phone; I did like to see the patient.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 59,312
    Nigelb said:

    More pertinently, saving lives and saving the economy are not mutually exclusive priorities; they ought to be complementary:

    Let's wait and see H1 economic stats for New Zealand, Australia, Singapore and South Korea compared to the USA, UK, Italy and Spain.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 28,303
    Foxy said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Foxy said:

    tlg86 said:

    FPT:

    isam said:
    If a decent number of the excess deaths are not COVID-19, then the excess deaths stats might go negative in the next few months depending on how COVID-19 develops.
    We know that lockdown measures have applied everywhere, but that the excess mortality has not been evenly distributed. It occurs in the same places as confirmed Covid-19 deaths.

    I suspect that the vast majority will be unrecognised Covid-19. We increasingly see Covid-19 presenting as vascular disease etc.

    As I have pointed out a number of times
    and @Cyclefree did in her header, the stay away message from 111 may well be part of the problem.

    There will be others, of course like @dixiedean father, and I do worry about some of my patients with long term conditions in lockdown.

    The virus will die witht he host won't it ?
    Or is serology in a post mortem possible. Also if the dieees are very old that won't take place I think ?
    Correlation with existing 'rona cases might be the best guide perhaps ?
    There will be no way to retrospectively diagnose, not least because many will have been cremated.

    We can only estimate numbers.
    Foxy, how close are they to having an accurate antibody test.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 26,150
    fox327 said:

    While exercising yesterday, I happened to pass my local NHS hospital which I know very well. It was almost deserted with no patients, visitors or members of staff visible and almost no one waiting for a bus. It has been shut down like a restaurant. Private hospitals are shut, opticians, dentists, etc.

    Why? The top priorities of the NHS are to stop its staff from being overwhelmed and to protect its monopoly, even above saving lives it appears. There are now questions being asked as to why COVID patients were discharged into care homes while being potentially infectious. Later we can expect questions about why the NHS was shut down for months, leading to a huge increase in mortality from causes other than COVID. NHS managers need to be held to account for their actions being in the public interest rather than just being in the NHS's interest.

    The BBC is already talking about the challenges of “restarting” the NHS

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52654956
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 2,845
    edited May 14
    fox327 said:

    Why? The top priorities of the NHS are to stop its staff from being overwhelmed and to protect its monopoly, even above saving lives it appears.

    I said on here several times that the NHS's priority is protection of the NHS. We (the patients/customers) are secondary.

    Also, the slogan on the govt's pedestal was not "Stay Safe. Save Lives. Protect the NHS". Everyday for weeks, millions could see that saving lives was third on the list,
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 15,656

    Nigelb said:
    Just in time for the kids as the government makes them go back to school. On that topic, very mixed views among fellow year 6 parents over whether they will comply on June 1. We are leaning towards sending him to school but really conflicted and not sure yet. If he caught it and developed these symptoms we'd never be able to live with ourselves (I recognise it's a small risk, obvs, but you don't take even small risks when it comes to your children's health).
    One of my cardiology colleagues reports to me that they are finding patients presenting with vascular problems, such as dysrhythmias needing pacing, and finding evidence on x rays of past Covid-19. The post viral vascular problems may be an issue in adults too.

    There is also quite a lot of post viral fatigue symptoms even after apparently mild cases.

  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 35,323
    Right now people haven't woken up to the economic costs of this (or don't think it will effect them).

    As soon as it does and they realise it will quickly shoot to the top of the list.

    The fall out will be colossal.
  • SandraMcSandraMc Posts: 118
    I have just read last night's thread. I am so sad about Cyclefree's news. My thoughts are with you and your family.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 15,656
    malcolmg said:

    Foxy said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Foxy said:

    tlg86 said:

    FPT:

    isam said:
    If a decent number of the excess deaths are not COVID-19, then the excess deaths stats might go negative in the next few months depending on how COVID-19 develops.
    We know that lockdown measures have applied everywhere, but that the excess mortality has not been evenly distributed. It occurs in the same places as confirmed Covid-19 deaths.

    I suspect that the vast majority will be unrecognised Covid-19. We increasingly see Covid-19 presenting as vascular disease etc.

    As I have pointed out a number of times
    and @Cyclefree did in her header, the stay away message from 111 may well be part of the problem.

    There will be others, of course like @dixiedean father, and I do worry about some of my patients with long term conditions in lockdown.

    The virus will die witht he host won't it ?
    Or is serology in a post mortem possible. Also if the dieees are very old that won't take place I think ?
    Correlation with existing 'rona cases might be the best guide perhaps ?
    There will be no way to retrospectively diagnose, not least because many will have been cremated.

    We can only estimate numbers.
    Foxy, how close are they to having an accurate antibody test.
    The Roche one seems to be the bees knees. Needs a proper blood sample but runs on existing analysers at up to 300 per hour and very reliable results.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/13/public-health-england-approves-roche-test-for-coronavirus-antibodies
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 26,150
    Barrow-in-Furness in Cumbria has the highest coronavirus infection rate in the UK.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 35,323
    Foxy said:

    Nigelb said:
    Just in time for the kids as the government makes them go back to school. On that topic, very mixed views among fellow year 6 parents over whether they will comply on June 1. We are leaning towards sending him to school but really conflicted and not sure yet. If he caught it and developed these symptoms we'd never be able to live with ourselves (I recognise it's a small risk, obvs, but you don't take even small risks when it comes to your children's health).
    One of my cardiology colleagues reports to me that they are finding patients presenting with vascular problems, such as dysrhythmias needing pacing, and finding evidence on x rays of past Covid-19. The post viral vascular problems may be an issue in adults too.

    There is also quite a lot of post viral fatigue symptoms even after apparently mild cases.

    Boris still looks like shit.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 2,845
    eristdoof said:

    This "stay away" message sounds very dangerous to me.

    It is also unnecessary. Some surgeries have simply locked the doors. Turn up if you want, but you will not get in.

    As for dentists.... :D:D I have already lost a tooth after a filling came out and the weakened side of the tooth then collapsed a couple of weeks later. The root is still in the gum.

    All Dentists are closed. I am just swilling Chlorhexidine several times a day and hoping it does not get infected.
  • rjkrjk Posts: 18
    fox327 said:

    While exercising yesterday, I happened to pass my local NHS hospital which I know very well. It was almost deserted with no patients, visitors or members of staff visible and almost no one waiting for a bus. It has been shut down like a restaurant. Private hospitals are shut, opticians, dentists, etc.

    Why? The top priorities of the NHS are to stop its staff from being overwhelmed and to protect its monopoly, even above saving lives it appears. There are now questions being asked as to why COVID patients were discharged into care homes while being potentially infectious. Later we can expect questions about why the NHS was shut down for months, leading to a huge increase in mortality from causes other than COVID. NHS managers need to be held to account for their actions being in the public interest rather than just being in the NHS's interest.

    Early in the crisis, it was observed that deaths in Wuhan and Lombardy rose steadily as infections rose, then appeared to spike when hospitals were overwhelmed. The theory was that COVID cases were dangerous, but that treatment in hospital could help a lot, and deaths spiked when that treatment was no longer available due to capacity constraints.

    The message that came out was "make sure your healthcare system doesn't get overwhelmed". It does appear that the UK take on this has been somewhat perverse: people can't die because of treatment being unavailable in overwhelmed hospitals if you don't even attempt to treat them in hospital! "Protect the NHS" seems to have taken precedence over "treat the people who are sick", with the result that they are encouraged to take their chances at home or in a care home, with predictable results. There seems to have been spare capacity in the NHS that could have been used to treat people, but wasn't, which does raise the question of what the ventilator challenge and Nightingale hospitals were actually for.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 2,845

    Good morning fellow Pb-ers. Fine bright morning here, but colder than one would wish for Mid May.

    On topic, I'm starting to have some concerns about SAGE; how independent of government is it. Really.
    I don't wish to suggest anything, but I'm just getting a bit concerned.

    Another concern is the daily Covid-19 Press Conference. Do we really need all the detailed figures, especially when we now have cause to doubt their accuracy to the last digit? And do we really need daily ritual obeisance to the 'heroes' of the NHS. Especially when many of them are being charged significant sums as insurance against them or their families having to use the services they are providing.

    Be careful saying such things. Heretics get burned at the stake.. :open_mouth:
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 35,323

    Poll discussed on the last thread here (the one with the terrible swing state numbers for Biden):
    http://cdn.cnn.com/cnn/2020/images/05/13/rel5c.-.2020.pdf

    Also has VP approval ratings:

    Harris: -1% (15% never heard of her)
    Warren: -2% (28% never heard of her)
    KLOBUCHAR: +7% (38% never heard of her)
    Adams: +3% (43% never heard of her)
    Whitmer: -1% (59% never heard of her)
    At present, Biden is on a path to cruising to a bruising.

    Yes, he's not Hillary. But he could lose for very different reasons to Hillary.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 1,244

    Nigelb said:
    Just in time for the kids as the government makes them go back to school. On that topic, very mixed views among fellow year 6 parents over whether they will comply on June 1. We are leaning towards sending him to school but really conflicted and not sure yet. If he caught it and developed these symptoms we'd never be able to live with ourselves (I recognise it's a small risk, obvs, but you don't take even small risks when it comes to your children's health).
    But isn’t this part of the problem (and is potentially true of COVID) as well. First of all the headlines focus on “case” numbers, rather than outcomes. Which distorts people’s views on danger. Kids are potentially exposed to all kinds of things all the time. They will be infected by many of them. For some this may even be dangerous. But they still go to school, and nobody previously questioned that they should. Yes there is a bit of a “fear of the unknown”. Who’s worried about a bit of mumps? We know what that is and the danger from it. But “Kawasaki syndrome linked to COVID...”

    Whilst the point of the COVID lockdown is to limit spread and protect the elderly and limit the impact on the NHS that is not the reason many people support it. It is because they are scared of it personally. But whilst everything says there is a large chance they might get it, for the non-elderly the subsequent danger is very small. Not nonexistent - but not incomparable with many other risks that people don’t give a second thought about.

    Take construction workers. And very dangerous profession. One that people do despite the dangers. Relative to the risk from COVID?

    Unions are saying that teachers should refuse to work unless their safety can be “guaranteed”. Of course it can’t be guaranteed. Reasonable measures can be taken to minimise the risk, but at some point a line must be drawn. That is what risk management and mitigation is all about. And in normal times we live with it every day.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 15,656
    fox327 said:

    While exercising yesterday, I happened to pass my local NHS hospital which I know very well. It was almost deserted with no patients, visitors or members of staff visible and almost no one waiting for a bus. It has been shut down like a restaurant. Private hospitals are shut, opticians, dentists, etc.

    Why? The top priorities of the NHS are to stop its staff from being overwhelmed and to protect its monopoly, even above saving lives it appears. There are now questions being asked as to why COVID patients were discharged into care homes while being potentially infectious. Later we can expect questions about why the NHS was shut down for months, leading to a huge increase in mortality from causes other than COVID. NHS managers need to be held to account for their actions being in the public interest rather than just being in the NHS's interest.

    Restarting services is quite a problem in the private sector too. Pretty much all dentistry, all general anaesthesia and much ENT is an aerosol generating procedure (AGP) and requires full PPE and 20 minute gaps between cases for cleaning. That is not going to restart quickly anywhere.

    Certainly my diabetes review patients need their long term care looking after. It is though an entirely rational decision for them to not come into our non socially distanced outpatients at the present Covid rich time.

    There is going to be both a massive backlog, and reduced throughput (enhanced cleaning, social distancing in the waiting area etc) when we do restart.

    At the moment though the problem is not us cancelling appointments, it is the patients not being willing to come.

  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 18,502
    SandraMc said:

    I have just read last night's thread. I am so sad about Cyclefree's news. My thoughts are with you and your family.

    Indeed; dreadful.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 59,312
    Foxy said:

    Nigelb said:
    Just in time for the kids as the government makes them go back to school. On that topic, very mixed views among fellow year 6 parents over whether they will comply on June 1. We are leaning towards sending him to school but really conflicted and not sure yet. If he caught it and developed these symptoms we'd never be able to live with ourselves (I recognise it's a small risk, obvs, but you don't take even small risks when it comes to your children's health).
    One of my cardiology colleagues reports to me that they are finding patients presenting with vascular problems, such as dysrhythmias needing pacing, and finding evidence on x rays of past Covid-19. The post viral vascular problems may be an issue in adults too.

    There is also quite a lot of post viral fatigue symptoms even after apparently mild cases.

    This has infuriated me, the assumption that so long as people survive the illness everything is A OK. It looks like a category error.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 18,502

    Poll discussed on the last thread here (the one with the terrible swing state numbers for Biden):
    http://cdn.cnn.com/cnn/2020/images/05/13/rel5c.-.2020.pdf

    Also has VP approval ratings:

    Harris: -1% (15% never heard of her)
    Warren: -2% (28% never heard of her)
    KLOBUCHAR: +7% (38% never heard of her)
    Adams: +3% (43% never heard of her)
    Whitmer: -1% (59% never heard of her)
    At present, Biden is on a path to cruising to a bruising.

    Yes, he's not Hillary. But he could lose for very different reasons to Hillary.

    If Trump develops Convid-19.........?
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 2,974
    To the person who said there was zero risk to children:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52648557

    p.s. good morning all x
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 2,974
    edited May 14

    Poll discussed on the last thread here (the one with the terrible swing state numbers for Biden):
    http://cdn.cnn.com/cnn/2020/images/05/13/rel5c.-.2020.pdf

    Also has VP approval ratings:

    Harris: -1% (15% never heard of her)
    Warren: -2% (28% never heard of her)
    KLOBUCHAR: +7% (38% never heard of her)
    Adams: +3% (43% never heard of her)
    Whitmer: -1% (59% never heard of her)
    At present, Biden is on a path to cruising to a bruising.

    Yes, he's not Hillary. But he could lose for very different reasons to Hillary.
    It's staggering that after another 4 years the Democrats have succeeded once agin in choosing a deadbeat candidate.

    All the viable candidates spent 12 months shooting one another to pieces and the only one left standing can only do so with a stick.

  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 5,035
    Was this covered yesterday? Did Johnson lie or simply not have a clue what he was talking about? And how do his rampers on here (cooeee HYUFD) justify it considering the number of times they parroted what Johnson said previously about no intra-UK border?

    Brexit will mean checks on goods crossing Irish Sea, government admits

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/may/13/brexit-will-mean-checks-on-goods-crossing-irish-sea-government-admits?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 1,244
    Pulpstar said:

    Foxy said:

    Nigelb said:
    Just in time for the kids as the government makes them go back to school. On that topic, very mixed views among fellow year 6 parents over whether they will comply on June 1. We are leaning towards sending him to school but really conflicted and not sure yet. If he caught it and developed these symptoms we'd never be able to live with ourselves (I recognise it's a small risk, obvs, but you don't take even small risks when it comes to your children's health).
    One of my cardiology colleagues reports to me that they are finding patients presenting with vascular problems, such as dysrhythmias needing pacing, and finding evidence on x rays of past Covid-19. The post viral vascular problems may be an issue in adults too.

    There is also quite a lot of post viral fatigue symptoms even after apparently mild cases.

    This has infuriated me, the assumption that so long as people survive the illness everything is A OK. It looks like a category error.
    It is, but you also have to be careful in what you are describing as a “survivor”. People twist this to suggest that “survivor” equates to “anyone infected”.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 35,323

    eristdoof said:

    This "stay away" message sounds very dangerous to me.

    It is also unnecessary. Some surgeries have simply locked the doors. Turn up if you want, but you will not get in.

    As for dentists.... :D:D I have already lost a tooth after a filling came out and the weakened side of the tooth then collapsed a couple of weeks later. The root is still in the gum.

    All Dentists are closed. I am just swilling Chlorhexidine several times a day and hoping it does not get infected.
    Ouch.
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 556
    fox327 said:

    While exercising yesterday, I happened to pass my local NHS hospital which I know very well. It was almost deserted with no patients, visitors or members of staff visible and almost no one waiting for a bus. It has been shut down like a restaurant. Private hospitals are shut, opticians, dentists, etc.

    Why? The top priorities of the NHS are to stop its staff from being overwhelmed and to protect its monopoly, even above saving lives it appears. There are now questions being asked as to why COVID patients were discharged into care homes while being potentially infectious. Later we can expect questions about why the NHS was shut down for months, leading to a huge increase in mortality from causes other than COVID. NHS managers need to be held to account for their actions being in the public interest rather than just being in the NHS's interest.

    Hospitals are still discharging people as quickly as possible despite only running at 30-40% occupancy
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 15,656
    Pulpstar said:

    Foxy said:

    Nigelb said:
    Just in time for the kids as the government makes them go back to school. On that topic, very mixed views among fellow year 6 parents over whether they will comply on June 1. We are leaning towards sending him to school but really conflicted and not sure yet. If he caught it and developed these symptoms we'd never be able to live with ourselves (I recognise it's a small risk, obvs, but you don't take even small risks when it comes to your children's health).
    One of my cardiology colleagues reports to me that they are finding patients presenting with vascular problems, such as dysrhythmias needing pacing, and finding evidence on x rays of past Covid-19. The post viral vascular problems may be an issue in adults too.

    There is also quite a lot of post viral fatigue symptoms even after apparently mild cases.

    This has infuriated me, the assumption that so long as people survive the illness everything is A OK. It looks like a category error.
    I am not a fan of the Daily Mail, but the exception is their medical reporting, which is generally very good.

    I think the PM is showing signs of the post viral syndrome. He looks tired and washed out, has visibly lost weight, seems unable to concentrate for long etc.

    I have never thought much of his skills other than after dinner entertainment, but his recent illness hasn't enhanced them. Then there is the new baby too. I hope he has a good nanny helping.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 35,323

    Poll discussed on the last thread here (the one with the terrible swing state numbers for Biden):
    http://cdn.cnn.com/cnn/2020/images/05/13/rel5c.-.2020.pdf

    Also has VP approval ratings:

    Harris: -1% (15% never heard of her)
    Warren: -2% (28% never heard of her)
    KLOBUCHAR: +7% (38% never heard of her)
    Adams: +3% (43% never heard of her)
    Whitmer: -1% (59% never heard of her)
    At present, Biden is on a path to cruising to a bruising.

    Yes, he's not Hillary. But he could lose for very different reasons to Hillary.
    If Trump develops Convid-19.........?

    If my Auntie had bollocks she'd be my Uncle.

    Democrats can try all this wishful thinking all the way to November, or they could fight to win?
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 2,974

    SandraMc said:

    I have just read last night's thread. I am so sad about Cyclefree's news. My thoughts are with you and your family.

    Indeed; dreadful.
    What happened?
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 2,974

    Foxy said:

    Nigelb said:
    Just in time for the kids as the government makes them go back to school. On that topic, very mixed views among fellow year 6 parents over whether they will comply on June 1. We are leaning towards sending him to school but really conflicted and not sure yet. If he caught it and developed these symptoms we'd never be able to live with ourselves (I recognise it's a small risk, obvs, but you don't take even small risks when it comes to your children's health).
    One of my cardiology colleagues reports to me that they are finding patients presenting with vascular problems, such as dysrhythmias needing pacing, and finding evidence on x rays of past Covid-19. The post viral vascular problems may be an issue in adults too.

    There is also quite a lot of post viral fatigue symptoms even after apparently mild cases.

    Boris still looks like shit.
    Yes must admit he didn't look great yesterday
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 15,656
    edited May 14

    To the person who said there was zero risk to children:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52648557

    p.s. good morning all x

    It is still a rare syndrome, but it does show that children can catch the virus, and by implication spread it.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 2,845

    Was this covered yesterday? Did Johnson lie or simply not have a clue what he was talking about? And how do his rampers on here (cooeee HYUFD) justify it considering the number of times they parroted what Johnson said previously about no intra-UK border?

    Brexit will mean checks on goods crossing Irish Sea, government admits

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/may/13/brexit-will-mean-checks-on-goods-crossing-irish-sea-government-admits?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard

    Propaganda 101... Lie early, Lie often ;)
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 4,877

    eristdoof said:

    This "stay away" message sounds very dangerous to me.

    It is also unnecessary. Some surgeries have simply locked the doors. Turn up if you want, but you will not get in.

    As for dentists.... :D:D I have already lost a tooth after a filling came out and the weakened side of the tooth then collapsed a couple of weeks later. The root is still in the gum.

    All Dentists are closed. I am just swilling Chlorhexidine several times a day and hoping it does not get infected.
    My wife and her practice partner plan to reopen their surgery in the second week of September. I have no idea what manner of odontomancy they used to arrive at this date.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 2,974
    I'm so sorry Cyclefree, if you're around. I just saw what you posted last night. I'm so so sorry. Horrific. I'm sending virtual hugs and love xxx
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 35,323

    Poll discussed on the last thread here (the one with the terrible swing state numbers for Biden):
    http://cdn.cnn.com/cnn/2020/images/05/13/rel5c.-.2020.pdf

    Also has VP approval ratings:

    Harris: -1% (15% never heard of her)
    Warren: -2% (28% never heard of her)
    KLOBUCHAR: +7% (38% never heard of her)
    Adams: +3% (43% never heard of her)
    Whitmer: -1% (59% never heard of her)
    At present, Biden is on a path to cruising to a bruising.

    Yes, he's not Hillary. But he could lose for very different reasons to Hillary.
    It's staggering that after another 4 years the Democrats have succeeded once agin in choosing a deadbeat candidate.

    All the viable candidates spent 12 months shooting one another to pieces and the only one left standing can only do so with a stick.

    Yep. Trump's website is brutal.

    He will simply drag him down to his level and then beat him in the swing states.
  • eekeek Posts: 7,832

    I'm so sorry Cyclefree, if you're around. I just saw what you posted last night. I'm so so sorry. Horrific. I'm sending virtual hugs and love xxx

    +1 awfully sad, horrendous and sadly horrendously common.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 2,974
    Dura_Ace said:

    eristdoof said:

    This "stay away" message sounds very dangerous to me.

    It is also unnecessary. Some surgeries have simply locked the doors. Turn up if you want, but you will not get in.

    As for dentists.... :D:D I have already lost a tooth after a filling came out and the weakened side of the tooth then collapsed a couple of weeks later. The root is still in the gum.

    All Dentists are closed. I am just swilling Chlorhexidine several times a day and hoping it does not get infected.
    odontomancy
    I bet that's the first outing for that word on pb.com :D
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 3,788
    Foxy said:

    tlg86 said:

    FPT:

    isam said:
    If a decent number of the excess deaths are not COVID-19, then the excess deaths stats might go negative in the next few months depending on how COVID-19 develops.
    We know that lockdown measures have applied everywhere, but that the excess mortality has not been evenly distributed. It occurs in the same places as confirmed Covid-19 deaths.

    I suspect that the vast majority will be unrecognised Covid-19. We increasingly see Covid-19 presenting as vascular disease etc.

    As I have pointed out a number of times
    and @Cyclefree did in her header, the stay away message from 111 may well be part of the problem.

    There will be others, of course like @dixiedean father, and I do worry about some of my patients with long term conditions in lockdown.

    Condolences to @Cyclefree. Suicide is wrenchingly awful.
    Condolences to @dixiedean for your father. A mercy it was not in hospital.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 35,323

    To the person who said there was zero risk to children:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52648557

    p.s. good morning all x

    Thankfully it's exceptionally rare.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 35,323

    Dura_Ace said:

    eristdoof said:

    This "stay away" message sounds very dangerous to me.

    It is also unnecessary. Some surgeries have simply locked the doors. Turn up if you want, but you will not get in.

    As for dentists.... :D:D I have already lost a tooth after a filling came out and the weakened side of the tooth then collapsed a couple of weeks later. The root is still in the gum.

    All Dentists are closed. I am just swilling Chlorhexidine several times a day and hoping it does not get infected.
    odontomancy
    I bet that's the first outing for that word on pb.com :D
    He's opened his thesaurus early this morning.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 2,759
    Pulpstar said:

    Foxy said:

    Nigelb said:
    Just in time for the kids as the government makes them go back to school. On that topic, very mixed views among fellow year 6 parents over whether they will comply on June 1. We are leaning towards sending him to school but really conflicted and not sure yet. If he caught it and developed these symptoms we'd never be able to live with ourselves (I recognise it's a small risk, obvs, but you don't take even small risks when it comes to your children's health).
    One of my cardiology colleagues reports to me that they are finding patients presenting with vascular problems, such as dysrhythmias needing pacing, and finding evidence on x rays of past Covid-19. The post viral vascular problems may be an issue in adults too.

    There is also quite a lot of post viral fatigue symptoms even after apparently mild cases.

    This has infuriated me, the assumption that so long as people survive the illness everything is A OK. It looks like a category error.
    One reason why this idea is popular is that is is important for the strategy: let the under 50s drive the economy and keep the over 50s in isolation.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 21,316

    Nigelb said:

    tlg86 said:

    fox327 said:

    These are the current poll findings. We are still in the early stages of this crisis, as at the start of March life was almost normal. People keep saying "Don't assume that there will be a vaccine", but I think most people expect there will be one by the end of next year. If we don't get a vaccine we will have to live with this virus long-term and that is a very long time. There will be plenty of time for the opinion polls to move.

    Agreed. The sticky numbers are likely to last precisely as long as the furlough scheme and other support mechanisms do.

    The quarter-or-so of the workforce that is currently subsisting on wages paid by Government, mortgage holidays and protection from eviction won't be quite so keen on sitting at home when they're trying to feed the kids on Universal Credit and being threatened with being thrown out into the street.

    However long the Government attempts to string these schemes out for, the supply of money isn't infinite. Logically, at some point, they will have to stop - and what are the chances that we will develop a silver bullet vaccine and distribute it throughout the population before that happens? Not great, one would assume.
    I'm surprised no politician (i.e. the LOTO) has questioned the fairness of paying some people £2,500 a month whilst others have to make do with universal credit.
    Should it carry on beyond a couple more months, they undoubtedly will.
    This was a sensible emergency response; it cannot carry on indefinitely. Sunak has bought himself a couple of months - let’s hope he uses it well (and better than the lockdown months were used in getting together test/track/trace).
    He's extended the job retention scheme to the end of October, so on that front - and assuming he can't find an extra 77 squillion quid down the back of the sofa to keep it going into 2021 - then the Government has until mid-September to get as much as possible of the economy up and running again. After that, there will be a big wave of 45-day redundancy notices, and I think the unemployed are going to be abandoned to the mercies of the system.

    Whether the protections against rental evictions and the mortgage holidays will last even that long, who can say?
    He's given himself quite a lot of wiggle room to modify the scheme come the end of July, which is why I referred to a couple of months.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 28,303
    Foxy said:

    Nigelb said:
    Just in time for the kids as the government makes them go back to school. On that topic, very mixed views among fellow year 6 parents over whether they will comply on June 1. We are leaning towards sending him to school but really conflicted and not sure yet. If he caught it and developed these symptoms we'd never be able to live with ourselves (I recognise it's a small risk, obvs, but you don't take even small risks when it comes to your children's health).
    One of my cardiology colleagues reports to me that they are finding patients presenting with vascular problems, such as dysrhythmias needing pacing, and finding evidence on x rays of past Covid-19. The post viral vascular problems may be an issue in adults too.

    There is also quite a lot of post viral fatigue symptoms even after apparently mild cases.

    Foxy , how do they tell from X rays of past Covid
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 53,424
    Miss Cyclefree, my deepest sympathies.

    Mr. B2, I wonder if the vitamin D factor could be the, or a, factor behind seemingly different rates of death for people of differing race.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 21,316
    tlg86 said:

    FPT:

    isam said:
    If a decent number of the excess deaths are not COVID-19, then the excess deaths stats might go negative in the next few months depending on how COVID-19 develops.
    That a good point - though I suspect a large percentage of those are care home deaths which probably were Covid related, but not recorded as such. Given the shortage of testing in homes up until very recently, the huge numbers, and the speed with which bodies were processed, that seems fairly likely.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 3,497

    Was this covered yesterday? Did Johnson lie or simply not have a clue what he was talking about? And how do his rampers on here (cooeee HYUFD) justify it considering the number of times they parroted what Johnson said previously about no intra-UK border?

    Brexit will mean checks on goods crossing Irish Sea, government admits

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/may/13/brexit-will-mean-checks-on-goods-crossing-irish-sea-government-admits?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard

    Boris is getting away with both your concerns.

    The use of falsehoods is quite an interesting means to get Starmer off guard. Starmer is so well briefed he knows
    the answer Boris should give to any question, and has his rebuttals lined up. When Boris hands him a crock of absolute ordure, Starmer is momentarily blown off course. It is a simple but effective ploy
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 3,272
    IanB2 said:

    Barrow-in-Furness in Cumbria has the highest coronavirus infection rate in the UK.

    I heard a rumour it started in an HM Submarine and then spread in the pubs
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 21,316
    rjk said:

    Early serological tests from Spain and France indicate that maybe 5% of the population has been infected. This would give us an infection fatality rate of 1.3-1.5%.

    This seems dangerous enough that "let it rip" strategies can't possibly work. The public will vote with their feet and stay home, leaving us in an economic depression until a comprehensive solution is found.

    This means that we need a vaccine, which itself has to be safe, tested, and manufactured at enormous scale, which could feasibly be 18 months away. Or we need an extremely efficient testing and tracing system that can hold the number of active cases down to a very low level, enough that people feel safe to resume a semblance of normality.

    On the one hand, these are tremendous undertakings. The institutions and cultural practices we'd need to maintain very low levels of infection without a vaccine would need to be put in place. In short, we'd need to learn how to do what Taiwan and South Korea are doing, and fast. On the other hand, the cost of *not* doing these things can be measured in the tens, if not hundreds, of billions of pounds.

    I think the header presents a false choice, because the government can't easily force the public to run the gauntlet of the virus. There is no choice that saves the economy at the cost of 1.5% infection fatality rate. Polling shows overwhelming support for the lockdowns. The choice is between serious efforts to control the virus, effective enough that the public can put their trust in them, or economic depression until we get a vaccine, and we don't know when that will be.

    This isn't really a party political question. I don't get the sense that the opposition has grappled hard with this either. However, one of the strands of thought in Cummings-Johnsonism is that the British state has become weak and ineffective, incapable of pursuing ambitious projects, stuck with "managed decline" as a doctrine. We have been presented with a crisis that calls for an ambitious response, not "managed die-offs" where we allow everyone to succumb to a virus, just slowly enough that we don't run out of hospital beds or have to dig mass graves. If they're serious about building state capacity to tackle 21st-century challenges, this would be one way to show it.

    That is a very good post.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 2,845
    Dura_Ace said:

    My wife and her practice partner plan to reopen their surgery in the second week of September. I have no idea what manner of odontomancy they used to arrive at this date.

    Computer says "Yes"?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 53,424
    Mrs C, sadly, Boris Johnson being full of shit does not constitute news.

    Hope Starmer shoves Butler off the front bench.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 3,272
    alex_ said:



    Nigelb said:
    Just in time for the kids as the government makes them go back to school. On that topic, very mixed views among fellow year 6 parents over whether they will comply on June 1. We are leaning towards sending him to school but really conflicted and not sure yet. If he caught it and developed these symptoms we'd never be able to live with ourselves (I recognise it's a small risk, obvs, but you don't take even small risks when it comes to your children's health).
    But isn’t this part of the problem (and is potentially true of COVID) as well. First of all the headlines focus on “case” numbers, rather than outcomes. Which distorts people’s views on danger. Kids are potentially exposed to all kinds of things all the time. They will be infected by many of them. For some this may even be dangerous. But they still go to school, and nobody previously questioned that they should. Yes there is a bit of a “fear of the unknown”. Who’s worried about a bit of mumps? We know what that is and the danger from it. But “Kawasaki syndrome linked to COVID...”

    Whilst the point of the COVID lockdown is to limit spread and protect the elderly and limit the impact on the NHS that is not the reason many people support it. It is because they are scared of it personally. But whilst everything says there is a large chance they might get it, for the non-elderly the subsequent danger is very small. Not nonexistent - but not incomparable with many other risks that people don’t give a second thought about.

    Take construction workers. And very dangerous profession. One that people do despite the dangers. Relative to the risk from COVID?

    Unions are saying that teachers should refuse to work unless their safety can be “guaranteed”. Of course it can’t be guaranteed. Reasonable measures can be taken to minimise the risk, but at some point a line must be drawn. That is what risk management and mitigation is all about. And in normal times we live with it every day.
    There is a difference. Many construction workers are self employed, or work for small firms where it is obvious that they need work to survive. It is also a profession that regularly goes through good and bad times, depending on the economy or even the weather. Teachers, in the other hand, are public sector employees who will continue to be paid even if they don't work
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 21,316
    IanB2 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Sunlight and fresh air can protect against coronavirus, Sage adviser tells MPs"

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/05/13/sunlight-fresh-air-can-protect-against-coronavirus-sage-adviser/

    On a possibly related point, Tim Harford was saying on R4 yesterday that early research suggests a correlation between low vitamin D and likelihood of catching the virus - but hasn’t yet dug into the likelihood of cross correlation (D levels being a by product of some other causal factor) or indeed causality (getting the virus depresses Vit D).
    That might also be a possible driver of a seasonal effect.
    Early studies showed only a very small effect of increasing temperature on suppressing rates of viral transmission, but obviously wouldn't account for differences in seasonal Vit.D levels.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 28,303

    eristdoof said:

    This "stay away" message sounds very dangerous to me.

    It is also unnecessary. Some surgeries have simply locked the doors. Turn up if you want, but you will not get in.

    As for dentists.... :D:D I have already lost a tooth after a filling came out and the weakened side of the tooth then collapsed a couple of weeks later. The root is still in the gum.

    All Dentists are closed. I am just swilling Chlorhexidine several times a day and hoping it does not get infected.
    Ouch.
    I thought they had emergency dentists available
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 15,656
    Nigelb said:

    IanB2 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Sunlight and fresh air can protect against coronavirus, Sage adviser tells MPs"

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/05/13/sunlight-fresh-air-can-protect-against-coronavirus-sage-adviser/

    On a possibly related point, Tim Harford was saying on R4 yesterday that early research suggests a correlation between low vitamin D and likelihood of catching the virus - but hasn’t yet dug into the likelihood of cross correlation (D levels being a by product of some other causal factor) or indeed causality (getting the virus depresses Vit D).
    That might also be a possible driver of a seasonal effect.
    Early studies showed only a very small effect of increasing temperature on suppressing rates of viral transmission, but obviously wouldn't account for differences in seasonal Vit.D levels.
    The major problems developing in Latin America at present do suggest that warm weather won't wipe it out here, apart perhaps from encouraging people outdoors.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 3,430
    rjk said:

    fox327 said:

    While exercising yesterday, I happened to pass my local NHS hospital which I know very well. It was almost deserted with no patients, visitors or members of staff visible and almost no one waiting for a bus. It has been shut down like a restaurant. Private hospitals are shut, opticians, dentists, etc.

    Why? The top priorities of the NHS are to stop its staff from being overwhelmed and to protect its monopoly, even above saving lives it appears. There are now questions being asked as to why COVID patients were discharged into care homes while being potentially infectious. Later we can expect questions about why the NHS was shut down for months, leading to a huge increase in mortality from causes other than COVID. NHS managers need to be held to account for their actions being in the public interest rather than just being in the NHS's interest.

    Early in the crisis, it was observed that deaths in Wuhan and Lombardy rose steadily as infections rose, then appeared to spike when hospitals were overwhelmed. The theory was that COVID cases were dangerous, but that treatment in hospital could help a lot, and deaths spiked when that treatment was no longer available due to capacity constraints.

    The message that came out was "make sure your healthcare system doesn't get overwhelmed". It does appear that the UK take on this has been somewhat perverse: people can't die because of treatment being unavailable in overwhelmed hospitals if you don't even attempt to treat them in hospital! "Protect the NHS" seems to have taken precedence over "treat the people who are sick", with the result that they are encouraged to take their chances at home or in a care home, with predictable results. There seems to have been spare capacity in the NHS that could have been used to treat people, but wasn't, which does raise the question of what the ventilator challenge and Nightingale hospitals were actually for.
    The extra capacity was to avoid a North Italy situation. I don't think we can complain about the existence of an insurance policy in the case of the Field Hospitals.

    Also we don't know yet whether capacity will be needed - Wave 2 et al. In Spanish Flu, Wave 2 was far more deadly than wave 1.

    I agree that the NHS religion was (and is) a problem, and the skewed power of lobby groups demanding kit for the NHS keeping it away from care homes.

    i don't see how it could have been different, however.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 5,035

    Was this covered yesterday? Did Johnson lie or simply not have a clue what he was talking about? And how do his rampers on here (cooeee HYUFD) justify it considering the number of times they parroted what Johnson said previously about no intra-UK border?

    Brexit will mean checks on goods crossing Irish Sea, government admits

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/may/13/brexit-will-mean-checks-on-goods-crossing-irish-sea-government-admits?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard

    Boris is getting away with both your concerns.

    The use of falsehoods is quite an interesting means to get Starmer off guard. Starmer is so well briefed he knows
    the answer Boris should give to any question, and has his rebuttals lined up. When Boris hands him a crock of absolute ordure, Starmer is momentarily blown off course. It is a simple but effective ploy
    I'm not sure Starmer is the concern for him on this one. The leader of the Conservative and Unionist Party has signed a deal to end the union as we know it and has then either lied about it or hadn't a clue what he was telling these business leaders in NI last November ( "Throw the form in the bin" he told them. Yet it will be his government requiring the form.

    Its the same issue as yesterday. A Prime Minister so disinterested in the detail is a danger to this country at the best of times never mind during this crisis. What makes it worse are the people willing to excuse this gross incompetence and disinterest - several of them on here - for partisan reasons.

    Yes, and that party is the Conservative and Unionist Party. Unionist. As in protect the Union. Not incompetently shat on the union then lie about it.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 898
    rjk said:

    Early serological tests from Spain and France indicate that maybe 5% of the population has been infected. This would give us an infection fatality rate of 1.3-1.5%.

    This seems dangerous enough that "let it rip" strategies can't possibly work. The public will vote with their feet and stay home, leaving us in an economic depression until a comprehensive solution is found.

    This means that we need a vaccine, which itself has to be safe, tested, and manufactured at enormous scale, which could feasibly be 18 months away. Or we need an extremely efficient testing and tracing system that can hold the number of active cases down to a very low level, enough that people feel safe to resume a semblance of normality.

    On the one hand, these are tremendous undertakings. The institutions and cultural practices we'd need to maintain very low levels of infection without a vaccine would need to be put in place. In short, we'd need to learn how to do what Taiwan and South Korea are doing, and fast. On the other hand, the cost of *not* doing these things can be measured in the tens, if not hundreds, of billions of pounds.

    I think the header presents a false choice, because the government can't easily force the public to run the gauntlet of the virus. There is no choice that saves the economy at the cost of 1.5% infection fatality rate. Polling shows overwhelming support for the lockdowns. The choice is between serious efforts to control the virus, effective enough that the public can put their trust in them, or economic depression until we get a vaccine, and we don't know when that will be.

    This isn't really a party political question. I don't get the sense that the opposition has grappled hard with this either. However, one of the strands of thought in Cummings-Johnsonism is that the British state has become weak and ineffective, incapable of pursuing ambitious projects, stuck with "managed decline" as a doctrine. We have been presented with a crisis that calls for an ambitious response, not "managed die-offs" where we allow everyone to succumb to a virus, just slowly enough that we don't run out of hospital beds or have to dig mass graves. If they're serious about building state capacity to tackle 21st-century challenges, this would be one way to show it.

    Test, test, test and then test some more, exactly as the WHO have said all the way along is our best chance of keeping control of this thing until a vaccine or treatment is found.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 3,272
    Foxy said:

    Nigelb said:

    IanB2 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Sunlight and fresh air can protect against coronavirus, Sage adviser tells MPs"

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/05/13/sunlight-fresh-air-can-protect-against-coronavirus-sage-adviser/

    On a possibly related point, Tim Harford was saying on R4 yesterday that early research suggests a correlation between low vitamin D and likelihood of catching the virus - but hasn’t yet dug into the likelihood of cross correlation (D levels being a by product of some other causal factor) or indeed causality (getting the virus depresses Vit D).
    That might also be a possible driver of a seasonal effect.
    Early studies showed only a very small effect of increasing temperature on suppressing rates of viral transmission, but obviously wouldn't account for differences in seasonal Vit.D levels.
    The major problems developing in Latin America at present do suggest that warm weather won't wipe it out here, apart perhaps from encouraging people outdoors.
    If people are living and working in overcrowded conditions, drinking in cramped makeshift bars, etc that may counteract any warm weather effect.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 15,656
    MattW said:

    rjk said:

    fox327 said:

    While exercising yesterday, I happened to pass my local NHS hospital which I know very well. It was almost deserted with no patients, visitors or members of staff visible and almost no one waiting for a bus. It has been shut down like a restaurant. Private hospitals are shut, opticians, dentists, etc.

    Why? The top priorities of the NHS are to stop its staff from being overwhelmed and to protect its monopoly, even above saving lives it appears. There are now questions being asked as to why COVID patients were discharged into care homes while being potentially infectious. Later we can expect questions about why the NHS was shut down for months, leading to a huge increase in mortality from causes other than COVID. NHS managers need to be held to account for their actions being in the public interest rather than just being in the NHS's interest.

    Early in the crisis, it was observed that deaths in Wuhan and Lombardy rose steadily as infections rose, then appeared to spike when hospitals were overwhelmed. The theory was that COVID cases were dangerous, but that treatment in hospital could help a lot, and deaths spiked when that treatment was no longer available due to capacity constraints.

    The message that came out was "make sure your healthcare system doesn't get overwhelmed". It does appear that the UK take on this has been somewhat perverse: people can't die because of treatment being unavailable in overwhelmed hospitals if you don't even attempt to treat them in hospital! "Protect the NHS" seems to have taken precedence over "treat the people who are sick", with the result that they are encouraged to take their chances at home or in a care home, with predictable results. There seems to have been spare capacity in the NHS that could have been used to treat people, but wasn't, which does raise the question of what the ventilator challenge and Nightingale hospitals were actually for.
    The extra capacity was to avoid a North Italy situation. I don't think we can complain about the existence of an insurance policy in the case of the Field Hospitals.

    Also we don't know yet whether capacity will be needed - Wave 2 et al. In Spanish Flu, Wave 2 was far more deadly than wave 1.

    I agree that the NHS religion was (and is) a problem, and the skewed power of lobby groups demanding kit for the NHS keeping it away from care homes.

    i don't see how it could have been different, however.
    On the whole, I think the front liners have risen to the challenge well.

    The fault for lack of PPE stocks, decision to stop Test and Trace, Stay Away policy, and discharges to care homes are command level failures, not the fault of the poor bloody infantry. Worth noting that many of the same issues arose in other health systems.

    The #Hospital specials on Monday and Tuesday give some feel of how it was at its height. I don’t entirely blame the decision makers. Mistakes will be made in fast evolving, unprecedented situations.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 19,837
    Foxy said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Foxy said:

    Nigelb said:
    Just in time for the kids as the government makes them go back to school. On that topic, very mixed views among fellow year 6 parents over whether they will comply on June 1. We are leaning towards sending him to school but really conflicted and not sure yet. If he caught it and developed these symptoms we'd never be able to live with ourselves (I recognise it's a small risk, obvs, but you don't take even small risks when it comes to your children's health).
    One of my cardiology colleagues reports to me that they are finding patients presenting with vascular problems, such as dysrhythmias needing pacing, and finding evidence on x rays of past Covid-19. The post viral vascular problems may be an issue in adults too.

    There is also quite a lot of post viral fatigue symptoms even after apparently mild cases.

    This has infuriated me, the assumption that so long as people survive the illness everything is A OK. It looks like a category error.
    I am not a fan of the Daily Mail, but the exception is their medical reporting, which is generally very good.

    I think the PM is showing signs of the post viral syndrome. He looks tired and washed out, has visibly lost weight, seems unable to concentrate for long etc.

    I have never thought much of his skills other than after dinner entertainment, but his recent illness hasn't enhanced them. Then there is the new baby too. I hope he has a good nanny helping.
    Foxy said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Foxy said:

    Nigelb said:
    Just in time for the kids as the government makes them go back to school. On that topic, very mixed views among fellow year 6 parents over whether they will comply on June 1. We are leaning towards sending him to school but really conflicted and not sure yet. If he caught it and developed these symptoms we'd never be able to live with ourselves (I recognise it's a small risk, obvs, but you don't take even small risks when it comes to your children's health).
    One of my cardiology colleagues reports to me that they are finding patients presenting with vascular problems, such as dysrhythmias needing pacing, and finding evidence on x rays of past Covid-19. The post viral vascular problems may be an issue in adults too.

    There is also quite a lot of post viral fatigue symptoms even after apparently mild cases.

    This has infuriated me, the assumption that so long as people survive the illness everything is A OK. It looks like a category error.
    I am not a fan of the Daily Mail, but the exception is their medical reporting, which is generally very good.

    I think the PM is showing signs of the post viral syndrome. He looks tired and washed out, has visibly lost weight, seems unable to concentrate for long etc.

    I have never thought much of his skills other than after dinner entertainment, but his recent illness hasn't enhanced them. Then there is the new baby too. I hope he has a good nanny helping.
    And a good nanny for the baby also.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 1,572
    edited May 14

    fox327 said:

    While exercising yesterday, I happened to pass my local NHS hospital which I know very well. It was almost deserted with no patients, visitors or members of staff visible and almost no one waiting for a bus. It has been shut down like a restaurant. Private hospitals are shut, opticians, dentists, etc.

    Why? The top priorities of the NHS are to stop its staff from being overwhelmed and to protect its monopoly, even above saving lives it appears. There are now questions being asked as to why COVID patients were discharged into care homes while being potentially infectious. Later we can expect questions about why the NHS was shut down for months, leading to a huge increase in mortality from causes other than COVID. NHS managers need to be held to account for their actions being in the public interest rather than just being in the NHS's interest.

    Hospitals are still discharging people as quickly as possible despite only running at 30-40% occupancy
    The rhetoric of NHS perfect and staffed exclusively by saints, Government useless and run entirely by child and pretty nurse killers, while obviously rubbish, has survived for quite a time now. It can't last for ever. Can it?....

  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 3,272
    Nigelb said:

    rjk said:

    Early serological tests from Spain and France indicate that maybe 5% of the population has been infected. This would give us an infection fatality rate of 1.3-1.5%.

    This seems dangerous enough that "let it rip" strategies can't possibly work. The public will vote with their feet and stay home, leaving us in an economic depression until a comprehensive solution is found.

    This means that we need a vaccine, which itself has to be safe, tested, and manufactured at enormous scale, which could feasibly be 18 months away. Or we need an extremely efficient testing and tracing system that can hold the number of active cases down to a very low level, enough that people feel safe to resume a semblance of normality.

    On the one hand, these are tremendous undertakings. The institutions and cultural practices we'd need to maintain very low levels of infection without a vaccine would need to be put in place. In short, we'd need to learn how to do what Taiwan and South Korea are doing, and fast. On the other hand, the cost of *not* doing these things can be measured in the tens, if not hundreds, of billions of pounds.

    I think the header presents a false choice, because the government can't easily force the public to run the gauntlet of the virus. There is no choice that saves the economy at the cost of 1.5% infection fatality rate. Polling shows overwhelming support for the lockdowns. The choice is between serious efforts to control the virus, effective enough that the public can put their trust in them, or economic depression until we get a vaccine, and we don't know when that will be.

    This isn't really a party political question. I don't get the sense that the opposition has grappled hard with this either. However, one of the strands of thought in Cummings-Johnsonism is that the British state has become weak and ineffective, incapable of pursuing ambitious projects, stuck with "managed decline" as a doctrine. We have been presented with a crisis that calls for an ambitious response, not "managed die-offs" where we allow everyone to succumb to a virus, just slowly enough that we don't run out of hospital beds or have to dig mass graves. If they're serious about building state capacity to tackle 21st-century challenges, this would be one way to show it.

    That is a very good post.
    It is, especially about having a weak, ineffective state. The public sector does not deliver and is probably incapable of doing so. In good times, I think that suits us, or at least a large proportion of the population.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 13,895
    edited May 14


    At present, Biden is on a path to cruising to a bruising.

    Yes, he's not Hillary. But he could lose for very different reasons to Hillary.

    Nah, this is basically the only data point showing anything except Biden cruising to a win, and it's sample size of like 300 or something that probably isn't balanced by anything in particular. I mean, Trump is creative and audacious and anything could happen etc etc etc, but the data says that Biden is winning.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 21,316
    Foxy said:

    MattW said:

    rjk said:

    fox327 said:

    While exercising yesterday, I happened to pass my local NHS hospital which I know very well. It was almost deserted with no patients, visitors or members of staff visible and almost no one waiting for a bus. It has been shut down like a restaurant. Private hospitals are shut, opticians, dentists, etc.

    Why? The top priorities of the NHS are to stop its staff from being overwhelmed and to protect its monopoly, even above saving lives it appears. There are now questions being asked as to why COVID patients were discharged into care homes while being potentially infectious. Later we can expect questions about why the NHS was shut down for months, leading to a huge increase in mortality from causes other than COVID. NHS managers need to be held to account for their actions being in the public interest rather than just being in the NHS's interest.

    Early in the crisis, it was observed that deaths in Wuhan and Lombardy rose steadily as infections rose, then appeared to spike when hospitals were overwhelmed. The theory was that COVID cases were dangerous, but that treatment in hospital could help a lot, and deaths spiked when that treatment was no longer available due to capacity constraints.

    The message that came out was "make sure your healthcare system doesn't get overwhelmed". It does appear that the UK take on this has been somewhat perverse: people can't die because of treatment being unavailable in overwhelmed hospitals if you don't even attempt to treat them in hospital! "Protect the NHS" seems to have taken precedence over "treat the people who are sick", with the result that they are encouraged to take their chances at home or in a care home, with predictable results. There seems to have been spare capacity in the NHS that could have been used to treat people, but wasn't, which does raise the question of what the ventilator challenge and Nightingale hospitals were actually for.
    The extra capacity was to avoid a North Italy situation. I don't think we can complain about the existence of an insurance policy in the case of the Field Hospitals.

    Also we don't know yet whether capacity will be needed - Wave 2 et al. In Spanish Flu, Wave 2 was far more deadly than wave 1.

    I agree that the NHS religion was (and is) a problem, and the skewed power of lobby groups demanding kit for the NHS keeping it away from care homes.

    i don't see how it could have been different, however.
    On the whole, I think the front liners have risen to the challenge well.

    The fault for lack of PPE stocks, decision to stop Test and Trace, Stay Away policy, and discharges to care homes are command level failures, not the fault of the poor bloody infantry. Worth noting that many of the same issues arose in other health systems.

    The #Hospital specials on Monday and Tuesday give some feel of how it was at its height. I don’t entirely blame the decision makers. Mistakes will be made in fast evolving, unprecedented situations.
    I think that's fair.
    What I don't see, though, is public acknowledgment of those mistakes. And how much has been learned at the command level from those mistakes is an open question.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 14,537
    edited May 14
    Foxy said:

    MattW said:

    rjk said:

    fox327 said:

    While exercising yesterday, I happened to pass my local NHS hospital which I know very well. It was almost deserted with no patients, visitors or members of staff visible and almost no one waiting for a bus. It has been shut down like a restaurant. Private hospitals are shut, opticians, dentists, etc.

    Why? The top priorities of the NHS are to stop its staff from being overwhelmed and to protect its monopoly, even above saving lives it appears. There are now questions being asked as to why COVID patients were discharged into care homes while being potentially infectious. Later we can expect questions about why the NHS was shut down for months, leading to a huge increase in mortality from causes other than COVID. NHS managers need to be held to account for their actions being in the public interest rather than just being in the NHS's interest.

    Early in the crisis, it was observed that deaths in Wuhan and Lombardy rose steadily as infections rose, then appeared to spike when hospitals were overwhelmed. The theory was that COVID cases were dangerous, but that treatment in hospital could help a lot, and deaths spiked when that treatment was no longer available due to capacity constraints.

    The message that came out was "make sure your healthcare system doesn't get overwhelmed". It does appear that the UK take on this has been somewhat perverse: people can't die because of treatment being unavailable in overwhelmed hospitals if you don't even attempt to treat them in hospital! "Protect the NHS" seems to have taken precedence over "treat the people who are sick", with the result that they are encouraged to take their chances at home or in a care home, with predictable results. There seems to have been spare capacity in the NHS that could have been used to treat people, but wasn't, which does raise the question of what the ventilator challenge and Nightingale hospitals were actually for.
    The extra capacity was to avoid a North Italy situation. I don't think we can complain about the existence of an insurance policy in the case of the Field Hospitals.

    Also we don't know yet whether capacity will be needed - Wave 2 et al. In Spanish Flu, Wave 2 was far more deadly than wave 1.

    I agree that the NHS religion was (and is) a problem, and the skewed power of lobby groups demanding kit for the NHS keeping it away from care homes.

    i don't see how it could have been different, however.
    On the whole, I think the front liners have risen to the challenge well.

    The fault for lack of PPE stocks, decision to stop Test and Trace, Stay Away policy, and discharges to care homes are command level failures, not the fault of the poor bloody infantry. Worth noting that many of the same issues arose in other health systems.

    The #Hospital specials on Monday and Tuesday give some feel of how it was at its height. I don’t entirely blame the decision makers. Mistakes will be made in fast evolving, unprecedented situations.
    The emergence of party political attacks on the NHS is a sad, predictable development.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 21,316

    Foxy said:

    Nigelb said:

    IanB2 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Sunlight and fresh air can protect against coronavirus, Sage adviser tells MPs"

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/05/13/sunlight-fresh-air-can-protect-against-coronavirus-sage-adviser/

    On a possibly related point, Tim Harford was saying on R4 yesterday that early research suggests a correlation between low vitamin D and likelihood of catching the virus - but hasn’t yet dug into the likelihood of cross correlation (D levels being a by product of some other causal factor) or indeed causality (getting the virus depresses Vit D).
    That might also be a possible driver of a seasonal effect.
    Early studies showed only a very small effect of increasing temperature on suppressing rates of viral transmission, but obviously wouldn't account for differences in seasonal Vit.D levels.
    The major problems developing in Latin America at present do suggest that warm weather won't wipe it out here, apart perhaps from encouraging people outdoors.
    If people are living and working in overcrowded conditions, drinking in cramped makeshift bars, etc that may counteract any warm weather effect.
    Country effects are probably of far greater amplitude than any seasonal ones. That doesn't mean the latter don't exist.
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