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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Joe Biden’s VP pick – the case for Amy Klobuchar

SystemSystem Posts: 8,258
edited May 15 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Joe Biden’s VP pick – the case for Amy Klobuchar

On Saturday we launched a series of posts on the various possibilities for Joe Biden as he ponders on who to choose for the VP slot on the ticket for WH2020. The second favourite in the betting is the Minnesota Senator, Amy Klobuchar, who pulled out of her White House bid to back Biden just before Super Tuesday.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 4,231
    60 - the new "young".

  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 13,895
    Reposting from yesterday since it's now on-topic:
    CNN poll (the one with horrible swing state numbers for Biden) also has VP approval ratings:
    Harris: -1% (15% never heard of her)
    Warren: -2% (28% never heard of her)
    KLOBUCHAR: +7% (38% never heard of her)
    Adams: +3% (43% never heard of her)
    Whitmer: -1% (59% never heard of her)
    http://cdn.cnn.com/cnn/2020/images/05/13/rel5c.-.2020.pdf
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 2,974
    Is it certain Biden will land the nomination?

    What a crazy situation this is. The Dems have had 4 years to select a viable opponent and they spent the last 12 months shooting at one another so effectively that the only one left standing is a geriatric with a dodgy past.

    Trump must be laughing his head off.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 30,655
    I thought the VP candidate was supposed to be black. Does she want identify as such?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 59,312

    Is it certain Biden will land the nomination?
    .

    More certain than the betting markets currently imply.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 13,895
    edited May 15
    DavidL said:

    I thought the VP candidate was supposed to be black. Does she want identify as such?

    Biden said he'd pick a woman, he didn't mention race.

    The only reason to think the nominee might need to be black is because he won thanks to an endorsement from Jim Clyburn, and *Jim Clyburn* says the nominee should be a black woman. It's possible that Biden promised that in return for endorsement.

    OTOH Biden also needed KLOBUCHAR to drop out and endorse him, so it's also possible that he promised *her* the slot in return for endorsement.

    But I do think the fact that he's committed to picking a woman suggests that one of the above may be right and he may already have made someone a promise. Otherwise there wouldn't have been much in it for him to tie his hands in advance when he didn't really need to.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 6,072
    DavidL said:

    I thought the VP candidate was supposed to be black. Does she want identify as such?

    Sad to say but in the currently highly charged political environment a black VP pick might be a negative for Biden
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 32,966
    Morning all,

    Isn't she being a member of the Senate a problem for the party? Would need a special election on same day as other senate seats?

  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 4,231
    TGOHF666 said:
    I believe there were reports of spikes in various towns/cities.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 13,895

    Is it certain Biden will land the nomination?

    What a crazy situation this is. The Dems have had 4 years to select a viable opponent and they spent the last 12 months shooting at one another so effectively that the only one left standing is a geriatric with a dodgy past.

    Trump must be laughing his head off.

    IDK, the Americans don't seem to mind geriatrics, and everyone has something dodgy in their past, and if they don't the Republicans can make something up.

    Biden is popular in the mid-west, and the voters know him well so he'll be harder to demagogue than somebody fresh. I do think they've have been better off going with KLOBUCHAR but Biden isn't a terrible choice.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 21,316

    DavidL said:

    I thought the VP candidate was supposed to be black. Does she want identify as such?

    Biden said he'd pick a woman, he didn't mention race.

    The only reason to think the nominee might need to be black is because he won thanks to an endorsement from Jim Clyburn, and *Jim Clyburn* says the nominee should be a black woman. It's possible that Biden promised that in return for endorsement.

    OTOH Biden also needed KLOBUCHAR to drop out and endorse him, so it's also possible that he promised *her* the slot in return for endorsement...
    I doubt that.
    Buttigieg dropping out was the key moment from a point of view of timing; I got the feeling Klobuchar was bowing to the inevitable.
    But I guess it's just about possible.

    ...she is 60 later in the month and that would help enormously and present a younger image..
    LOL
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 4,231
    Pulpstar said:

    Is it certain Biden will land the nomination?
    .

    More certain than the betting markets currently imply.
    We had intended you to be
    The next President but .....:
    The stocks were sold; the Press was squared:
    The Middle Class was quite prepared.
    But as it is! . . . My language fails!
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 33,463

    Morning all,

    Isn't she being a member of the Senate a problem for the party? Would need a special election on same day as other senate seats?

    Only vacates the Senate if she wins. That's a good problem for the Democrats.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 21,316

    Is it certain Biden will land the nomination?

    What a crazy situation this is. The Dems have had 4 years to select a viable opponent and they spent the last 12 months shooting at one another so effectively that the only one left standing is a geriatric with a dodgy past.

    Trump must be laughing his head off.

    IDK, the Americans don't seem to mind geriatrics, and everyone has something dodgy in their past, and if they don't the Republicans can make something up.....
    And if they do, the Republicans will still make something up.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 30,655
    TGOHF666 said:
    I queried this last Sunday. I can say it was Sunday because the BBC spent most of the day reporting that a relaxation of the lockdown had caused a spike in cases in Germany in anticipation of a Boris’s address for the nation. Just trying to be helpful no doubt but I couldn’t see any evidence of a spike in the worldometer data. It appears that there still isn’t.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 14,537
    The vp has to

    A) do no harm
    B) reach people Biden can’t and mitigate Biden weaknesses.
    C) do the heavy lifting the candidate can’t be seen to do
    D) be an acceptable substitute if the time comes

    Amy? I am not sure tbh. Maybe B, Good at C and D.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 21,228
    Interesting question.

    Is Biden, in making this pick, effectively although unknowingly, picking the next President of the United States? It is a long time since I saw a presidential candidate who looked so likely to fail to complete his term due to ill health in which case Biden is going to be deciding who the next POTUS is sometime over the next couple of months.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 21,316

    Morning all,

    Isn't she being a member of the Senate a problem for the party? Would need a special election on same day as other senate seats?

    Doesn't the (Democratic) governor appoint a temporary replacement, and there's a special election within six months ?
    (Which is the objection to Warren - her replacement would be appointed by a Republican.)
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 4,231
    DavidL said:

    TGOHF666 said:
    I queried this last Sunday. I can say it was Sunday because the BBC spent most of the day reporting that a relaxation of the lockdown had caused a spike in cases in Germany in anticipation of a Boris’s address for the nation. Just trying to be helpful no doubt but I couldn’t see any evidence of a spike in the worldometer data. It appears that there still isn’t.
    I'm shocked, shocked I tell you, to discover a journalist mis-reading data.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 21,316
    Interesting news.

    TSMC to Build 5nm Fab in Arizona
    https://www.eetimes.com/tsmc-to-build-5nm-fab-in-arizona/
    Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co.(TSMC) said it will build a 5nm fab in Arizona with support from that state and the U.S. federal government.

    The facility will have a 20,000 wafer-per-month capacity, create over 1,600 jobs directly and thousands more indirect jobs, the company said in a press statement today.

    The announcement comes following press reports that the U.S. government was pushing TSMC to build a fab in America. As the U.S. aims to impede China’s growth in the technology industry, TSMC faces potential U.S. restrictions on sales of its most advanced chips to Chinese companies such as Huawei, the world’s second-largest smartphone maker.

    “TSMC’s motivation in building a U.S. fab is to gain favor with the United States administration,” Wedbush Securities Senior Vice President Matt Bryson said in emailed comments to EE Times. “Recent newsflow suggests greater domestic fab capabilities are a U.S. priority.”

    The plan supports the pledge of U.S. President Donald Trump to bring more overseas jobs to America. The effort to slow China’s advance in 5G equipment production is also one of Trump’s initiatives aimed at protecting U.S. industry.

    Construction of the fab is scheduled to start in 2021 with production targeted to begin in 2024, TSMC said in the press statement. TSMC’s total spending on this project, including capital expenditure, will be approximately $12 billion from 2021 to 2029....

    ...How much support is the U.S. throwing behind this?
    TSMC didn’t disclose the terms of the agreement with the Arizona and U.S. federal governments. The deal could have broad implications for companies in the semiconductor ecosystem.

    If this agreement helps TSMC negotiate more favorable U.S. policies and in particular gets the U.S. administration to back away from its rumored proposal to curtail supply of semiconductors made with U.S. equipment to Huawei, not only should this deal be viewed as good for TSMC, but it also has significant positive implications for the broader U.S. chipmaking equipment industry as they may avoid getting cut out of the China/Huawei supply chain, Bryson said.

    There may have been other less valuable bargaining chips on the table.

    “If the agreement for instance just allows TSMC to keep its U.S. military chip business and or achieve low-cost production tied to promised subsides or other benefits offered by Arizona or the U.S. to TSMC to build a U.S. based facility, the benefit is minimal,” Bryson said....
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 30,655

    DavidL said:

    TGOHF666 said:
    I queried this last Sunday. I can say it was Sunday because the BBC spent most of the day reporting that a relaxation of the lockdown had caused a spike in cases in Germany in anticipation of a Boris’s address for the nation. Just trying to be helpful no doubt but I couldn’t see any evidence of a spike in the worldometer data. It appears that there still isn’t.
    I'm shocked, shocked I tell you, to discover a journalist mis-reading data.
    It doesn’t even seem to have been data. More like gossip. Not completely convinced it justified the headlines it was given.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 71,989
    I think either Klobuchar or Whitmer would be the best VP picks for Biden. Both relatively young and represent key Midwest swing states Biden has to win to win the Electoral College
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 71,989
    edited May 15

    Interesting question.

    Is Biden, in making this pick, effectively although unknowingly, picking the next President of the United States? It is a long time since I saw a presidential candidate who looked so likely to fail to complete his term due to ill health in which case Biden is going to be deciding who the next POTUS is sometime over the next couple of months.

    If Biden enters office he will be older than Reagan was when he left office and Reagan at the time was the oldest President ever elected.

    Trump is now the oldest President elected but against Biden can run as the youthful candidate being 4 years younger
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 2,974

    TGOHF666 said:
    I believe there were reports of spikes in various towns/cities.
    That for some journalists in this febrile atmosphere would equate to granite-fact.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 15,656
    Amy would be a great choice. Solidly Middle American, Midwest, a capable debater, and Primary performer. A highly credible POTUS if Joe had to step aside.

    Completely unrelated to my heavily green book on her as Candidate and next POTUS.

    B)
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 33,463
    DavidL said:

    TGOHF666 said:
    I queried this last Sunday. I can say it was Sunday because the BBC spent most of the day reporting that a relaxation of the lockdown had caused a spike in cases in Germany in anticipation of a Boris’s address for the nation. Just trying to be helpful no doubt but I couldn’t see any evidence of a spike in the worldometer data. It appears that there still isn’t.
    I think it comes from the media's ongoing inability to understand statistics.

    Word from Germany (not sure if it's substantiated or not) originally was that the R rate increased a bit after lockdown was eased which became a spike in cases in the media.

    Of course in reality the R rate going from say 0.75 to 0.8 means in reality cases are going down and not up still!
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 13,895
    edited May 15
    Just looking up the Senate vacancy thing:

    Democratic Gov. Tim Walz would make a temporary appointment, and then a special election would depend on the timing of Klobuchar’s departure. If the vacancy occurs at least 11 weeks before the state’s regular primary, which is Aug. 11 this year, then the election would be held in November 2020. If it occurs less than 11 weeks before the primary, the election would be held in November 2022. Klobuchar’s current term runs through 2024.

    While Minnesota has leaned Democratic in recent elections, and while a Republican hasn’t won a Minnesota Senate race since 2002, it’s a more competitive state than others on this list, giving Republicans at least a slightly better shot at an open seat than with Klobuchar continuing in office.

    http://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/gubernatorial-appointment-powers-for-u-s-senate-seats-which-vacancies-could-prompt-a-party-switch/
    So even if she stood down as soon as she was picked for VP, provided the announcement doesn't come in the next couple of weeks her successor will have until 2022 to generate an incumbency advantage, and they only lose two years. I doubt this will bother Biden.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 6,025
    Interesting insiders peek at Brexit process. Criticism for May and Boris unsurprising, but praise for Gove!

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/may/15/may-and-johnson-hung-civil-servants-out-to-dry-report-finds
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 30,655
    Nigelb said:

    Interesting news.

    TSMC to Build 5nm Fab in Arizona
    https://www.eetimes.com/tsmc-to-build-5nm-fab-in-arizona/
    Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co.(TSMC) said it will build a 5nm fab in Arizona with support from that state and the U.S. federal government.

    The facility will have a 20,000 wafer-per-month capacity, create over 1,600 jobs directly and thousands more indirect jobs, the company said in a press statement today.

    The announcement comes following press reports that the U.S. government was pushing TSMC to build a fab in America. As the U.S. aims to impede China’s growth in the technology industry, TSMC faces potential U.S. restrictions on sales of its most advanced chips to Chinese companies such as Huawei, the world’s second-largest smartphone maker.

    “TSMC’s motivation in building a U.S. fab is to gain favor with the United States administration,” Wedbush Securities Senior Vice President Matt Bryson said in emailed comments to EE Times. “Recent newsflow suggests greater domestic fab capabilities are a U.S. priority.”

    The plan supports the pledge of U.S. President Donald Trump to bring more overseas jobs to America. The effort to slow China’s advance in 5G equipment production is also one of Trump’s initiatives aimed at protecting U.S. industry.

    Construction of the fab is scheduled to start in 2021 with production targeted to begin in 2024, TSMC said in the press statement. TSMC’s total spending on this project, including capital expenditure, will be approximately $12 billion from 2021 to 2029....

    ...How much support is the U.S. throwing behind this?
    TSMC didn’t disclose the terms of the agreement with the Arizona and U.S. federal governments. The deal could have broad implications for companies in the semiconductor ecosystem.

    If this agreement helps TSMC negotiate more favorable U.S. policies and in particular gets the U.S. administration to back away from its rumored proposal to curtail supply of semiconductors made with U.S. equipment to Huawei, not only should this deal be viewed as good for TSMC, but it also has significant positive implications for the broader U.S. chipmaking equipment industry as they may avoid getting cut out of the China/Huawei supply chain, Bryson said.


    There may have been other less valuable bargaining chips on the table.


    “If the agreement for instance just allows TSMC to keep its U.S. military chip business and or achieve low-cost production tied to promised subsides or other benefits offered by Arizona or the U.S. to TSMC to build a U.S. based facility, the benefit is minimal,” Bryson said....

    I think that we will see a lot more of this kind of thing, probably in Europe as well. Being dependent upon China for manufacturing capacity is looking less and less attractive.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 33,463

    Interesting question.

    Is Biden, in making this pick, effectively although unknowingly, picking the next President of the United States? It is a long time since I saw a presidential candidate who looked so likely to fail to complete his term due to ill health in which case Biden is going to be deciding who the next POTUS is sometime over the next couple of months.

    I hope so.

    The alternative is either Trump winning another four years or four years of dementia Biden followed by the GOP regaining the White House (since the Veep would be overwhelming favourite for DNC in 2024). Neither is an appealing scenario.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 2,974

    DavidL said:

    TGOHF666 said:
    I queried this last Sunday. I can say it was Sunday because the BBC spent most of the day reporting that a relaxation of the lockdown had caused a spike in cases in Germany in anticipation of a Boris’s address for the nation. Just trying to be helpful no doubt but I couldn’t see any evidence of a spike in the worldometer data. It appears that there still isn’t.

    Of course in reality the R rate going from say 0.75 to 0.8 means in reality cases are going down and not up still!
    It's also statistically irrelevant. Nothing is ever that definite, this especially so. There's absolutely no way we are recording every infection.
  • theakestheakes Posts: 405
    My betting is on Trump to win unless he catches an illness. The polls appear to suggest huge wins for Biden or the Democrats in their usual places the West coast and the North East, monstrous majorities, so if Trump creeps in by 1 or 2% in the mid west swing states he will do it again probably on a larger minority vote than last time.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 4,231
    P
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    TGOHF666 said:
    I queried this last Sunday. I can say it was Sunday because the BBC spent most of the day reporting that a relaxation of the lockdown had caused a spike in cases in Germany in anticipation of a Boris’s address for the nation. Just trying to be helpful no doubt but I couldn’t see any evidence of a spike in the worldometer data. It appears that there still isn’t.
    I'm shocked, shocked I tell you, to discover a journalist mis-reading data.
    It doesn’t even seem to have been data. More like gossip. Not completely convinced it justified the headlines it was given.

    I would assume that they saw/read about spikes in data in various locations. Not being up to realising that spiky data is the norm and the need for looking at trends.....
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 21,316
    edited May 15
    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    Interesting news.

    TSMC to Build 5nm Fab in Arizona
    https://www.eetimes.com/tsmc-to-build-5nm-fab-in-arizona/
    Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co.(TSMC) said it will build a 5nm fab in Arizona with support from that state and the U.S. federal government.

    The facility will have a 20,000 wafer-per-month capacity, create over 1,600 jobs directly and thousands more indirect jobs, the company said in a press statement today.

    The announcement comes following press reports that the U.S. government was pushing TSMC to build a fab in America. As the U.S. aims to impede China’s growth in the technology industry, TSMC faces potential U.S. restrictions on sales of its most advanced chips to Chinese companies such as Huawei, the world’s second-largest smartphone maker.

    “TSMC’s motivation in building a U.S. fab is to gain favor with the United States administration,” Wedbush Securities Senior Vice President Matt Bryson said in emailed comments to EE Times. “Recent newsflow suggests greater domestic fab capabilities are a U.S. priority.”

    The plan supports the pledge of U.S. President Donald Trump to bring more overseas jobs to America. The effort to slow China’s advance in 5G equipment production is also one of Trump’s initiatives aimed at protecting U.S. industry.

    Construction of the fab is scheduled to start in 2021 with production targeted to begin in 2024, TSMC said in the press statement. TSMC’s total spending on this project, including capital expenditure, will be approximately $12 billion from 2021 to 2029....

    ...How much support is the U.S. throwing behind this?
    TSMC didn’t disclose the terms of the agreement with the Arizona and U.S. federal governments. The deal could have broad implications for companies in the semiconductor ecosystem.

    If this agreement helps TSMC negotiate more favorable U.S. policies and in particular gets the U.S. administration to back away from its rumored proposal to curtail supply of semiconductors made with U.S. equipment to Huawei, not only should this deal be viewed as good for TSMC, but it also has significant positive implications for the broader U.S. chipmaking equipment industry as they may avoid getting cut out of the China/Huawei supply chain, Bryson said.


    There may have been other less valuable bargaining chips on the table.


    “If the agreement for instance just allows TSMC to keep its U.S. military chip business and or achieve low-cost production tied to promised subsides or other benefits offered by Arizona or the U.S. to TSMC to build a U.S. based facility, the benefit is minimal,” Bryson said....

    I think that we will see a lot more of this kind of thing, probably in Europe as well. Being dependent upon China for manufacturing capacity is looking less and less attractive.
    I'd be slightly surprised to see this happening in Europe, however much they might like it. The same incentives aren't there, and it's a huge capital commitment.

    Not impossible, though.
  • SockySocky Posts: 404
    "The big thing against her is she has a record of being a terrible boss with lots of reported ructions over the years in her office. She puts this down to her high standards..."

    Anyone here who criticised Priti Patel care to delight us with some whataboutery?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 21,316
    edited May 15


    So even if she stood down as soon as she was picked for VP, provided the announcement doesn't come in the next couple of weeks her successor will have until 2022 to generate an incumbency advantage, and they only lose two years. I doubt this will bother Biden.

    Agreed.

    Along the same lines, I doubt Whitmer will make the final VP list. She's only been Governor in Michigan for two years, and leaving the post to run as VP during the pandemic might not give the Democrats the kind of electoral boost they want.

    And might risk the governorship in a key swing state.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 14,461

    Reposting from yesterday since it's now on-topic:
    CNN poll (the one with horrible swing state numbers for Biden) also has VP approval ratings:

    Harris: -1% (15% never heard of her)
    Warren: -2% (28% never heard of her)
    KLOBUCHAR: +7% (38% never heard of her)
    Adams: +3% (43% never heard of her)
    Whitmer: -1% (59% never heard of her)
    http://cdn.cnn.com/cnn/2020/images/05/13/rel5c.-.2020.pdf

    Those swing state number are pure sub sample diving.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 2,974
    edited May 15
    theakes said:

    My betting is on Trump to win unless he catches an illness. The polls appear to suggest huge wins for Biden or the Democrats in their usual places the West coast and the North East, monstrous majorities, so if Trump creeps in by 1 or 2% in the mid west swing states he will do it again probably on a larger minority vote than last time.

    Depressingly I think you're right.

    What a mess. How the Democrats and the country needed a JFK, Clinton or Obama. Someone young to hold a light and say to a ravaged and riven country, 'Here, come follow the light I hold.'
  • SockySocky Posts: 404
    Nigelb said:

    I'd be slightly surprised to see this happening in Europe, however much they might like it. The same incentives aren't there, and it's a huge capital commitment.

    Are you talking just semiconductors or manufacturing in general?


  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 33,463

    DavidL said:

    TGOHF666 said:
    I queried this last Sunday. I can say it was Sunday because the BBC spent most of the day reporting that a relaxation of the lockdown had caused a spike in cases in Germany in anticipation of a Boris’s address for the nation. Just trying to be helpful no doubt but I couldn’t see any evidence of a spike in the worldometer data. It appears that there still isn’t.

    Of course in reality the R rate going from say 0.75 to 0.8 means in reality cases are going down and not up still!
    It's also statistically irrelevant. Nothing is ever that definite, this especially so. There's absolutely no way we are recording every infection.
    And of course as well (my numbers being hypothetical) 0.8 R with a small base of currently infected people is a much lower amount of new infections than 0.75 R with a much higher base of infected people.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 14,461
    TGOHF666 said:
    Oh, now he's keen on a 7 day moving average but not when talking about Sweden deaths :scream:
  • kamskikamski Posts: 859

    TGOHF666 said:
    I believe there were reports of spikes in various towns/cities.
    On the graph there seems to be a plateau for the last week or so.

    Every week the lockdown is being eased further, so it's not as simple as looking at one date.

    For example, this week in NRW:
    Sportshalls, fitness studios, dance studios and outdoor swimming pools were allowed to open. Also small outdoor concerts are allowed again.
    And members of 2 households are allowed to meet in public (you could always invite as many people as you wanted into your home).

    Last week it was things like playgrounds being allowed to open, next week a few more things are being allowed...

    But the rules are different in different states.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 14,461
    theakes said:

    My betting is on Trump to win unless he catches an illness. The polls appear to suggest huge wins for Biden or the Democrats in their usual places the West coast and the North East, monstrous majorities, so if Trump creeps in by 1 or 2% in the mid west swing states he will do it again probably on a larger minority vote than last time.

    Go on. Show us the polling that shows trump is doing better with Hispanics, African Americans and Asians?
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 2,864
    It surely has to be a choice of Kloubuchar or Whitmer, if only to increase the chances of picking up either Wisconsin or Michigan. Although Clinton lost both by similar margins, Biden's leads look larger in Michigan at the moment so I think he'll be focused on enhancing his chances in Wisconsin.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 2,974

    DavidL said:

    TGOHF666 said:
    I queried this last Sunday. I can say it was Sunday because the BBC spent most of the day reporting that a relaxation of the lockdown had caused a spike in cases in Germany in anticipation of a Boris’s address for the nation. Just trying to be helpful no doubt but I couldn’t see any evidence of a spike in the worldometer data. It appears that there still isn’t.

    Of course in reality the R rate going from say 0.75 to 0.8 means in reality cases are going down and not up still!
    It's also statistically irrelevant. Nothing is ever that definite, this especially so. There's absolutely no way we are recording every infection.
    And of course as well (my numbers being hypothetical) 0.8 R with a small base of currently infected people is a much lower amount of new infections than 0.75 R with a much higher base of infected people.
    Very true
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 21,316
    edited May 15
    Socky said:

    Nigelb said:

    I'd be slightly surprised to see this happening in Europe, however much they might like it. The same incentives aren't there, and it's a huge capital commitment.

    Are you talking just semiconductors or manufacturing in general?
    High end semiconductor fabs.

    In general there are likely to be some changes in that direction.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 14,537
    Amazon Prime have run out of Llamas. Trying Argos.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 4,231
    Nigelb said:

    Socky said:

    Nigelb said:

    I'd be slightly surprised to see this happening in Europe, however much they might like it. The same incentives aren't there, and it's a huge capital commitment.

    Are you talking just semiconductors or manufacturing in general?
    High end semiconductor fabs.

    In general there are likely to be some changes in that direction.
    Te biggest hurdle to overcome will be senior management level belief that out sourcing is always cheaper.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 13,895
    Socky said:

    "The big thing against her is she has a record of being a terrible boss with lots of reported ructions over the years in her office. She puts this down to her high standards..."

    Anyone here who criticised Priti Patel care to delight us with some whataboutery?

    As the site's leading KLOBUCHAR stan I've criticized Priti Patel for being dim, corrupt, incompetent and a confirmed liar.

    But I'm pretty sure I withheld judgement on the bullying thing.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 5,069

    TGOHF666 said:
    I believe there were reports of spikes in various towns/cities.
    Isnt that just expected from randomness? If you have 100 towns and a gradual downward trend you might find 70 decrease, 30 increase of which 5-10 might look significant?
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 5,035
    Biden vs Trump is America asking the world to quarantine them until 2025. Can't we have the one on the left as the Presidential nominee and the one on the right as Veep?

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 71,989

    It surely has to be a choice of Kloubuchar or Whitmer, if only to increase the chances of picking up either Wisconsin or Michigan. Although Clinton lost both by similar margins, Biden's leads look larger in Michigan at the moment so I think he'll be focused on enhancing his chances in Wisconsin.

    Biden only needs Michigan and Pennsylvania to win the Electoral College though plus the Hillary states as a poll out yesterday had him 11% ahead in Ne02.

    Combined tgat wpuld give him 270 EC votes even if he lost Wisconsin
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 30,655

    Just looking up the Senate vacancy thing:


    Democratic Gov. Tim Walz would make a temporary appointment, and then a special election would depend on the timing of Klobuchar’s departure. If the vacancy occurs at least 11 weeks before the state’s regular primary, which is Aug. 11 this year, then the election would be held in November 2020. If it occurs less than 11 weeks before the primary, the election would be held in November 2022. Klobuchar’s current term runs through 2024.

    While Minnesota has leaned Democratic in recent elections, and while a Republican hasn’t won a Minnesota Senate race since 2002, it’s a more competitive state than others on this list, giving Republicans at least a slightly better shot at an open seat than with Klobuchar continuing in office.

    http://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/gubernatorial-appointment-powers-for-u-s-senate-seats-which-vacancies-could-prompt-a-party-switch/
    So even if she stood down as soon as she was picked for VP, provided the announcement doesn't come in the next couple of weeks her successor will have until 2022 to generate an incumbency advantage, and they only lose two years. I doubt this will bother Biden.

    Let's face it, he will almost certainly have retired by then.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 187
    HYUFD said:

    I think either Klobuchar or Whitmer would be the best VP picks for Biden. Both relatively young and represent key Midwest swing states Biden has to win to win the Electoral College

    Whitmer is likely to be too controversial given the reaction to her lock down policies, which have been seen as hard line. I think it is too risky for Biden. She could easily mobilise opposition in Michigan.

    Klobuchar is a better pick for the Mid-West but I'm not sure she adds much beyond protecting Minnesota and possibly helping in Iowa.

    Re whether Biden will go for a African-American VP pick, he doesn't really need to - his support in that constituency is high and Harris didn't do particularly well there. Plus Harris' record as a AG is fairly controversial so it wouldn't help him much I suspect.

    I think where the surprise might come for the VP pick is that he picks a Hispanic VP. There are some signs in the polling that the Democrats may be seeing more leakage from the Hispanic vote than the AA vote. If that's the case, you have two candidates, Catherine Cortez (Nevada Senator) and Michelle Lujan (New Mexico Governor). Both would help in the SW, particularly with Arizona and possibly in Texas as well, as well as the general Hispanic vote; both are low risk (Nevada's Governor is a Democrat and NM's Lt-Gov is a Democrat); and both are generally well regarded. Cortez is at 16/1 and Lujan at 50/1 as the VP pick with Ladbrokes but I think Lujan may be the better bet - Cortez apparently doesn't speak Spanish (but understands it) and there are question marks whether she wants the job
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 71,989

    theakes said:

    My betting is on Trump to win unless he catches an illness. The polls appear to suggest huge wins for Biden or the Democrats in their usual places the West coast and the North East, monstrous majorities, so if Trump creeps in by 1 or 2% in the mid west swing states he will do it again probably on a larger minority vote than last time.

    Depressingly I think you're right.

    What a mess. How the Democrats and the country needed a JFK, Clinton or Obama. Someone young to hold a light and say to a ravaged and riven country, 'Here, come follow the light I hold.'
    The only candidate to beat an incumbent president after only 1 term of his party in the White House since WW2 was 69 year old Reagan in 1980
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 5,035
    HYUFD said:
    A fall in London when people weren't going to work on the bus and tube in the current numbers? It'll go away in 2 weeks after we start flooding people back onto public transport says the study?

    Its brave...
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 14,461
    If people haven't seen British Voter Bot you totally should this might be my favourite so far



  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 4,231

    TGOHF666 said:
    I believe there were reports of spikes in various towns/cities.
    Isnt that just expected from randomness? If you have 100 towns and a gradual downward trend you might find 70 decrease, 30 increase of which 5-10 might look significant?
    Quite - all the data related to this disease is spiky. Hence the use of rolling averages.

    Journalists seem to fall into the trap of thinking that one swallow = summer, fairly often.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 71,989

    Interesting question.

    Is Biden, in making this pick, effectively although unknowingly, picking the next President of the United States? It is a long time since I saw a presidential candidate who looked so likely to fail to complete his term due to ill health in which case Biden is going to be deciding who the next POTUS is sometime over the next couple of months.

    I hope so.

    The alternative is either Trump winning another four years or four years of dementia Biden followed by the GOP regaining the White House (since the Veep would be overwhelming favourite for DNC in 2024). Neither is an appealing scenario.
    If Trump loses could be Romney as the next president after Biden in 2024.

    Romney is the anti Trump in the GOP as Hunt is the anti Boris here in the Tory Party
  • eekeek Posts: 7,832

    Nigelb said:

    Socky said:

    Nigelb said:

    I'd be slightly surprised to see this happening in Europe, however much they might like it. The same incentives aren't there, and it's a huge capital commitment.

    Are you talking just semiconductors or manufacturing in general?
    High end semiconductor fabs.

    In general there are likely to be some changes in that direction.
    Te biggest hurdle to overcome will be senior management level belief that out sourcing is always cheaper.
    out sourcing is rarely cheaper - but hey I don't have an MBA nor do I have to worry about shareholders.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 187

    Interesting question.

    Is Biden, in making this pick, effectively although unknowingly, picking the next President of the United States? It is a long time since I saw a presidential candidate who looked so likely to fail to complete his term due to ill health in which case Biden is going to be deciding who the next POTUS is sometime over the next couple of months.

    I hope so.

    The alternative is either Trump winning another four years or four years of dementia Biden followed by the GOP regaining the White House (since the Veep would be overwhelming favourite for DNC in 2024). Neither is an appealing scenario.
    I think the market is seriously underestimating the chances that Biden drops out. Not only is his age / mental capabilities a factor but he hasn't really shaken off the sex allegations and there are too many positive things he has said about China that could come back to haunt him. I think the key here is if the Democrats think that Biden on the ticket are hurting their chances in the Senate / House. Definitely, with the Senate, Republicans are already using the Tara Reade allegations to lob accusations of hypocrisy at Democrat candidates and there are some tentative signs it is starting to hit home and make the candidates uncomfortable. That will only continue
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 71,989
    Alistair said:

    theakes said:

    My betting is on Trump to win unless he catches an illness. The polls appear to suggest huge wins for Biden or the Democrats in their usual places the West coast and the North East, monstrous majorities, so if Trump creeps in by 1 or 2% in the mid west swing states he will do it again probably on a larger minority vote than last time.

    Go on. Show us the polling that shows trump is doing better with Hispanics, African Americans and Asians?
    Trump got a lower percentage of the white vote than Romney but a higher percentage of the black and Hispanic vote ironically
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 35,323
    Baemy is the candidate Hillary Clinton should have been.

    She doesn’t have any of the arrogance, entitlement or bitterness Clinton did and is non-threatening to independents.

    So, yes: I’d pick her as VP.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 4,231

    Biden vs Trump is America asking the world to quarantine them until 2025. Can't we have the one on the left as the Presidential nominee and the one on the right as Veep?


    The one on the left has no qualifications for political office, apart from being First Lady. Hillary Clinton says Hi.

    The one on the right is ineligible for the Presidency.

    What the Democrats needed was -

    - 45ish
    - 2 term, state Govenor
    - Fit
    - Articulate
    - Moderate with some interesting policy ideas
    - Good relationship with minorities
    - Good relationship with the unions
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 71,989
    MrEd said:

    HYUFD said:

    I think either Klobuchar or Whitmer would be the best VP picks for Biden. Both relatively young and represent key Midwest swing states Biden has to win to win the Electoral College

    Whitmer is likely to be too controversial given the reaction to her lock down policies, which have been seen as hard line. I think it is too risky for Biden. She could easily mobilise opposition in Michigan.

    Klobuchar is a better pick for the Mid-West but I'm not sure she adds much beyond protecting Minnesota and possibly helping in Iowa.

    Re whether Biden will go for a African-American VP pick, he doesn't really need to - his support in that constituency is high and Harris didn't do particularly well there. Plus Harris' record as a AG is fairly controversial so it wouldn't help him much I suspect.

    I think where the surprise might come for the VP pick is that he picks a Hispanic VP. There are some signs in the polling that the Democrats may be seeing more leakage from the Hispanic vote than the AA vote. If that's the case, you have two candidates, Catherine Cortez (Nevada Senator) and Michelle Lujan (New Mexico Governor). Both would help in the SW, particularly with Arizona and possibly in Texas as well, as well as the general Hispanic vote; both are low risk (Nevada's Governor is a Democrat and NM's Lt-Gov is a Democrat); and both are generally well regarded. Cortez is at 16/1 and Lujan at 50/1 as the VP pick with Ladbrokes but I think Lujan may be the better bet - Cortez apparently doesn't speak Spanish (but understands it) and there are question marks whether she wants the job
    He doesn't need a Hispanic, Hillary won Nevada, New Mexico and Colorado unless he picks someone from Arizona, the only western swing state Trump won.

    He needs the Midwest
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 13,895
    MrEd said:


    Klobuchar is a better pick for the Mid-West but I'm not sure she adds much beyond protecting Minnesota and possibly helping in Iowa.

    I know the data's not very clear on how much a VP can help beyond their own state (and even that only if it's a small one) but Minnesota also borders Wisconsin, which I guess is also culturally similar.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 14,537
    HYUFD said:
    Back to Basics II : The revenge of the moralising Tory.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 4,231
    edited May 15
    eek said:

    Nigelb said:

    Socky said:

    Nigelb said:

    I'd be slightly surprised to see this happening in Europe, however much they might like it. The same incentives aren't there, and it's a huge capital commitment.

    Are you talking just semiconductors or manufacturing in general?
    High end semiconductor fabs.

    In general there are likely to be some changes in that direction.
    Te biggest hurdle to overcome will be senior management level belief that out sourcing is always cheaper.
    out sourcing is rarely cheaper - but hey I don't have an MBA nor do I have to worry about shareholders.
    The problem (which I have witnessed) can be summed up thus

    A report of some hundreds of pages is prepared. It details the costs of manufacturing something in China vs a... First world democracy..

    According to the report, the on-shore option would be a bit cheaper. Automation vs labour costs etc etc..

    Decision makers chucked the report in the bin without reading it. "Outsourcing is always cheaper"

    The problem is that they look at the headline unit labour cost. Without thinking about overall productivity.

    Productivity is a function of

    - Labour skill
    - Management skill
    - Equipment
    - Culture
    - Local resources - e.g. reliable power, roads....
    - Legal - does the government steal stuff every other day?
    - Social provision.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 18,502
    HYUFD said:

    Interesting question.

    Is Biden, in making this pick, effectively although unknowingly, picking the next President of the United States? It is a long time since I saw a presidential candidate who looked so likely to fail to complete his term due to ill health in which case Biden is going to be deciding who the next POTUS is sometime over the next couple of months.

    I hope so.

    The alternative is either Trump winning another four years or four years of dementia Biden followed by the GOP regaining the White House (since the Veep would be overwhelming favourite for DNC in 2024). Neither is an appealing scenario.
    If Trump loses could be Romney as the next president after Biden in 2024.

    Romney is the anti Trump in the GOP as Hunt is the anti Boris here in the Tory Party
    Can't see the appeal of Hunt. He didn't do a great job at Health; anyone who sets out to antagonise the medics isn't well advised, and he was one of the people who buried Cygnus.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 7,480
    HYUFD said:

    MrEd said:

    HYUFD said:

    I think either Klobuchar or Whitmer would be the best VP picks for Biden. Both relatively young and represent key Midwest swing states Biden has to win to win the Electoral College

    Whitmer is likely to be too controversial given the reaction to her lock down policies, which have been seen as hard line. I think it is too risky for Biden. She could easily mobilise opposition in Michigan.

    Klobuchar is a better pick for the Mid-West but I'm not sure she adds much beyond protecting Minnesota and possibly helping in Iowa.

    Re whether Biden will go for a African-American VP pick, he doesn't really need to - his support in that constituency is high and Harris didn't do particularly well there. Plus Harris' record as a AG is fairly controversial so it wouldn't help him much I suspect.

    I think where the surprise might come for the VP pick is that he picks a Hispanic VP. There are some signs in the polling that the Democrats may be seeing more leakage from the Hispanic vote than the AA vote. If that's the case, you have two candidates, Catherine Cortez (Nevada Senator) and Michelle Lujan (New Mexico Governor). Both would help in the SW, particularly with Arizona and possibly in Texas as well, as well as the general Hispanic vote; both are low risk (Nevada's Governor is a Democrat and NM's Lt-Gov is a Democrat); and both are generally well regarded. Cortez is at 16/1 and Lujan at 50/1 as the VP pick with Ladbrokes but I think Lujan may be the better bet - Cortez apparently doesn't speak Spanish (but understands it) and there are question marks whether she wants the job
    He doesn't need a Hispanic, Hillary won Nevada, New Mexico and Colorado unless he picks someone from Arizona, the only western swing state Trump won.

    He needs the Midwest
    Or Texas...
  • BannedinnParisBannedinnParis Posts: 766
    Jonathan said:

    HYUFD said:
    Back to Basics II : The revenge of the moralising Tory.
    The state of this reply. Pathetic.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 71,989

    HYUFD said:

    Interesting question.

    Is Biden, in making this pick, effectively although unknowingly, picking the next President of the United States? It is a long time since I saw a presidential candidate who looked so likely to fail to complete his term due to ill health in which case Biden is going to be deciding who the next POTUS is sometime over the next couple of months.

    I hope so.

    The alternative is either Trump winning another four years or four years of dementia Biden followed by the GOP regaining the White House (since the Veep would be overwhelming favourite for DNC in 2024). Neither is an appealing scenario.
    If Trump loses could be Romney as the next president after Biden in 2024.

    Romney is the anti Trump in the GOP as Hunt is the anti Boris here in the Tory Party
    Can't see the appeal of Hunt. He didn't do a great job at Health; anyone who sets out to antagonise the medics isn't well advised, and he was one of the people who buried Cygnus.
    Hunt's main advantage is he was Boris' main opponent in the leadership election and refused to serve in the Boris Cabinet.

    So like Romney is not contaminated by Trump if Trump loses having voted to impeach him, Hunt is not contaminated by Boris if Boris loses either
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 5,035

    What the Democrats needed was -

    - 45ish
    - 2 term, state Govenor
    - Fit
    - Articulate
    - Moderate with some interesting policy ideas
    - Good relationship with minorities
    - Good relationship with the unions

    Does such a person exist? I really liked how Buttigeig looked / spoke / acted but he was only the former mayor of Where?, like a 2020 version of Sarah Palin.

    So as Biden is already as senile as Reagan late into his 2nd term and has hands issues that won't go away, the DNC is going to be left trying to fit up anyone vaguely articulate and sensible for the ticket.

    Run Cuomo.
  • eekeek Posts: 7,832

    eek said:

    Nigelb said:

    Socky said:

    Nigelb said:

    I'd be slightly surprised to see this happening in Europe, however much they might like it. The same incentives aren't there, and it's a huge capital commitment.

    Are you talking just semiconductors or manufacturing in general?
    High end semiconductor fabs.

    In general there are likely to be some changes in that direction.
    Te biggest hurdle to overcome will be senior management level belief that out sourcing is always cheaper.
    out sourcing is rarely cheaper - but hey I don't have an MBA nor do I have to worry about shareholders.
    The problem (which I have witnessed) can be summed up thus

    A report of some hundreds of pages is prepared. It details the costs of manufacturing something in China vs a... First world democracy..

    According to the report, the on-shore option would be a bit cheaper. Automation vs labour costs etc etc..

    Decision makers chucked the report in the bin without reading it. "Outsourcing is always cheaper"
    As I said I don't have an MBA
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 5,889
    eek said:

    Nigelb said:

    Socky said:

    Nigelb said:

    I'd be slightly surprised to see this happening in Europe, however much they might like it. The same incentives aren't there, and it's a huge capital commitment.

    Are you talking just semiconductors or manufacturing in general?
    High end semiconductor fabs.

    In general there are likely to be some changes in that direction.
    Te biggest hurdle to overcome will be senior management level belief that out sourcing is always cheaper.
    out sourcing is rarely cheaper - but hey I don't have an MBA nor do I have to worry about shareholders.
    Here is my knowledge of outsourcing.
    https://www.assistum.com/examples/embeddedOutsourcing.html

    You start on the circles on the left and work towards the final recommendation on the right. It uses AI/fuzzy logic and will argue with you if it thinks you are being inconsistent. But as a human, you always have the last word.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 4,231

    Jonathan said:

    HYUFD said:
    Back to Basics II : The revenge of the moralising Tory.
    The state of this reply. Pathetic.
    As a general point - there have been various reports, over the years, suggesting that many billions could be saved (especially for the NHS) by increasing general fitness in the population.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 4,231

    What the Democrats needed was -

    - 45ish
    - 2 term, state Govenor
    - Fit
    - Articulate
    - Moderate with some interesting policy ideas
    - Good relationship with minorities
    - Good relationship with the unions

    Does such a person exist? I really liked how Buttigeig looked / spoke / acted but he was only the former mayor of Where?, like a 2020 version of Sarah Palin.

    So as Biden is already as senile as Reagan late into his 2nd term and has hands issues that won't go away, the DNC is going to be left trying to fit up anyone vaguely articulate and sensible for the ticket.

    Run Cuomo.
    It's a wish list. Biden is 1 out of 7 .....
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 71,989

    Biden vs Trump is America asking the world to quarantine them until 2025. Can't we have the one on the left as the Presidential nominee and the one on the right as Veep?


    The one on the left has no qualifications for political office, apart from being First Lady. Hillary Clinton says Hi.

    The one on the right is ineligible for the Presidency.

    What the Democrats needed was -

    - 45ish
    - 2 term, state Govenor
    - Fit
    - Articulate
    - Moderate with some interesting policy ideas
    - Good relationship with minorities
    - Good relationship with the unions
    No Democratic candidate in the primaries met those criteria
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 30,655
    Jonathan said:

    Amazon Prime have run out of Llamas. Trying Argos.

    There are some llamas in Bridgefoot which is in easy walking distance of me. How close and personal do I need to get with them? I fear looking at them over the fence won't cut it.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 13,895
    MrEd said:

    Interesting question.

    Is Biden, in making this pick, effectively although unknowingly, picking the next President of the United States? It is a long time since I saw a presidential candidate who looked so likely to fail to complete his term due to ill health in which case Biden is going to be deciding who the next POTUS is sometime over the next couple of months.

    I hope so.

    The alternative is either Trump winning another four years or four years of dementia Biden followed by the GOP regaining the White House (since the Veep would be overwhelming favourite for DNC in 2024). Neither is an appealing scenario.
    I think the market is seriously underestimating the chances that Biden drops out. Not only is his age / mental capabilities a factor but he hasn't really shaken off the sex allegations and there are too many positive things he has said about China that could come back to haunt him. I think the key here is if the Democrats think that Biden on the ticket are hurting their chances in the Senate / House. Definitely, with the Senate, Republicans are already using the Tara Reade allegations to lob accusations of hypocrisy at Democrat candidates and there are some tentative signs it is starting to hit home and make the candidates uncomfortable. That will only continue
    This relies on some kind of decisive action by a vague, amorphous The Democrats.

    Biden has the delegates, the job is his if he wants it. And if he doesn't want it, why did he run?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 4,231
    eek said:

    eek said:

    Nigelb said:

    Socky said:

    Nigelb said:

    I'd be slightly surprised to see this happening in Europe, however much they might like it. The same incentives aren't there, and it's a huge capital commitment.

    Are you talking just semiconductors or manufacturing in general?
    High end semiconductor fabs.

    In general there are likely to be some changes in that direction.
    Te biggest hurdle to overcome will be senior management level belief that out sourcing is always cheaper.
    out sourcing is rarely cheaper - but hey I don't have an MBA nor do I have to worry about shareholders.
    The problem (which I have witnessed) can be summed up thus

    A report of some hundreds of pages is prepared. It details the costs of manufacturing something in China vs a... First world democracy..

    According to the report, the on-shore option would be a bit cheaper. Automation vs labour costs etc etc..

    Decision makers chucked the report in the bin without reading it. "Outsourcing is always cheaper"
    As I said I don't have an MBA
    In the case in question, the MBAs were reading the report.

    It was written by ignorant fools* who only had experience in setting up and running industrial plants in various countries.

    *They were ignorant fools because not one of them had an MBA. No lawyers, either. I think a couple had accountancy qualifications.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 14,461
    HYUFD said:

    Alistair said:

    theakes said:

    My betting is on Trump to win unless he catches an illness. The polls appear to suggest huge wins for Biden or the Democrats in their usual places the West coast and the North East, monstrous majorities, so if Trump creeps in by 1 or 2% in the mid west swing states he will do it again probably on a larger minority vote than last time.

    Go on. Show us the polling that shows trump is doing better with Hispanics, African Americans and Asians?
    Trump got a lower percentage of the white vote than Romney but a higher percentage of the black and Hispanic vote ironically
    Sure, but the claim was he was going to do even better than 2016.
  • eekeek Posts: 7,832
    edited May 15
    Barnesian said:

    eek said:

    Nigelb said:

    Socky said:

    Nigelb said:

    I'd be slightly surprised to see this happening in Europe, however much they might like it. The same incentives aren't there, and it's a huge capital commitment.

    Are you talking just semiconductors or manufacturing in general?
    High end semiconductor fabs.

    In general there are likely to be some changes in that direction.
    Te biggest hurdle to overcome will be senior management level belief that out sourcing is always cheaper.
    out sourcing is rarely cheaper - but hey I don't have an MBA nor do I have to worry about shareholders.
    Here is my knowledge of outsourcing.
    https://www.assistum.com/examples/embeddedOutsourcing.html

    You start on the circles on the left and work towards the final recommendation on the right. It uses AI/fuzzy logic and will argue with you if it thinks you are being inconsistent. But as a human, you always have the last word.
    Sadly, it uses Flash which any sane person would not allow anywhere near their computer - both Microsoft Edge and Chrome now follow Steve Jobs's thinking and disable it by default.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 71,989

    HYUFD said:

    MrEd said:

    HYUFD said:

    I think either Klobuchar or Whitmer would be the best VP picks for Biden. Both relatively young and represent key Midwest swing states Biden has to win to win the Electoral College

    Whitmer is likely to be too controversial given the reaction to her lock down policies, which have been seen as hard line. I think it is too risky for Biden. She could easily mobilise opposition in Michigan.

    Klobuchar is a better pick for the Mid-West but I'm not sure she adds much beyond protecting Minnesota and possibly helping in Iowa.

    Re whether Biden will go for a African-American VP pick, he doesn't really need to - his support in that constituency is high and Harris didn't do particularly well there. Plus Harris' record as a AG is fairly controversial so it wouldn't help him much I suspect.

    I think where the surprise might come for the VP pick is that he picks a Hispanic VP. There are some signs in the polling that the Democrats may be seeing more leakage from the Hispanic vote than the AA vote. If that's the case, you have two candidates, Catherine Cortez (Nevada Senator) and Michelle Lujan (New Mexico Governor). Both would help in the SW, particularly with Arizona and possibly in Texas as well, as well as the general Hispanic vote; both are low risk (Nevada's Governor is a Democrat and NM's Lt-Gov is a Democrat); and both are generally well regarded. Cortez is at 16/1 and Lujan at 50/1 as the VP pick with Ladbrokes but I think Lujan may be the better bet - Cortez apparently doesn't speak Spanish (but understands it) and there are question marks whether she wants the job
    He doesn't need a Hispanic, Hillary won Nevada, New Mexico and Colorado unless he picks someone from Arizona, the only western swing state Trump won.

    He needs the Midwest
    Or Texas...
    If he wins Texas he will have won Michigan and Pennsylvania and Wisconsin comfortably anyway
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 21,316
    (Guardian)
    ...Life-sized cardboard cutouts of football fans are being used to try to provide atmosphere at empty stadiums in Germany as the suspended Bundesliga gets ready to resume.

    Thousands of Borussia Moenchengladbach fans have ordered €18 cutouts of themselves for their first home fixture at Borussia Park next week, Reuters reports...
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 14,537

    Jonathan said:

    HYUFD said:
    Back to Basics II : The revenge of the moralising Tory.
    The state of this reply. Pathetic.
    If ministers want people to change their habits, they will need to be seen to lead the way.

    If it's bikes they want, then ditch the ministerial limos and make the roads safe for cyclists.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 13,895

    What the Democrats needed was -

    - 45ish
    - 2 term, state Govenor
    - Fit
    - Articulate
    - Moderate with some interesting policy ideas
    - Good relationship with minorities
    - Good relationship with the unions

    Does such a person exist? I really liked how Buttigeig looked / spoke / acted but he was only the former mayor of Where?, like a 2020 version of Sarah Palin.
    Yes, Buttigeig was created by a computer model trained on old JFK and Clinton clips in the hope of making a candidate with the qualities you list, but it couldn't do the "2-term state governor" part.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 30,655
    HYUFD said:
    Very rare that I agree with Fraser Nelson these days but I think we are going to have to try some sort of regional controls here. Even in Scotland if you are not in a care home the risk of CV seems pretty minimal outside greater Glasgow. That might not always be the case but there are a lot of people isolated from family and friends, struggling with depression and the multiple side effects of that or in need of treatment for unrelated conditions who are being locked down and are at minimal risk. And there are some who want to go back to work too. People whose wages are not being paid by the State in the main.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 18,502
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Interesting question.

    Is Biden, in making this pick, effectively although unknowingly, picking the next President of the United States? It is a long time since I saw a presidential candidate who looked so likely to fail to complete his term due to ill health in which case Biden is going to be deciding who the next POTUS is sometime over the next couple of months.

    I hope so.

    The alternative is either Trump winning another four years or four years of dementia Biden followed by the GOP regaining the White House (since the Veep would be overwhelming favourite for DNC in 2024). Neither is an appealing scenario.
    If Trump loses could be Romney as the next president after Biden in 2024.

    Romney is the anti Trump in the GOP as Hunt is the anti Boris here in the Tory Party
    Can't see the appeal of Hunt. He didn't do a great job at Health; anyone who sets out to antagonise the medics isn't well advised, and he was one of the people who buried Cygnus.
    Hunt's main advantage is he was Boris' main opponent in the leadership election and refused to serve in the Boris Cabinet.

    So like Romney is not contaminated by Trump if Trump loses having voted to impeach him, Hunt is not contaminated by Boris if Boris loses either
    If that's his main advantage......
    If he refused to serve in Boris Govt., then that does suggest some common sense somewhere. Although TBH I thought he didn't fancy the job he was offered. Didn't he want to b Foreign Sec and was offered Health? Stand to be corrected, of course.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 21,316

    MrEd said:

    Interesting question.

    Is Biden, in making this pick, effectively although unknowingly, picking the next President of the United States? It is a long time since I saw a presidential candidate who looked so likely to fail to complete his term due to ill health in which case Biden is going to be deciding who the next POTUS is sometime over the next couple of months.

    I hope so.

    The alternative is either Trump winning another four years or four years of dementia Biden followed by the GOP regaining the White House (since the Veep would be overwhelming favourite for DNC in 2024). Neither is an appealing scenario.
    I think the market is seriously underestimating the chances that Biden drops out. Not only is his age / mental capabilities a factor but he hasn't really shaken off the sex allegations and there are too many positive things he has said about China that could come back to haunt him. I think the key here is if the Democrats think that Biden on the ticket are hurting their chances in the Senate / House. Definitely, with the Senate, Republicans are already using the Tara Reade allegations to lob accusations of hypocrisy at Democrat candidates and there are some tentative signs it is starting to hit home and make the candidates uncomfortable. That will only continue
    This relies on some kind of decisive action by a vague, amorphous The Democrats.

    Biden has the delegates, the job is his if he wants it. And if he doesn't want it, why did he run?
    And any effort to remove him against his will would quite possibly be disastrous for the Democrats chances (which is presumably why Republicans are so keen on the idea).
    It's not impossible that he might step down for reasons of health (though unlikely) but that's an entirely different matter. (And why, like @Foxy , I have money on a couple of other 'next President' bets at very long odds.)
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 5,889
    eek said:

    Barnesian said:

    eek said:

    Nigelb said:

    Socky said:

    Nigelb said:

    I'd be slightly surprised to see this happening in Europe, however much they might like it. The same incentives aren't there, and it's a huge capital commitment.

    Are you talking just semiconductors or manufacturing in general?
    High end semiconductor fabs.

    In general there are likely to be some changes in that direction.
    Te biggest hurdle to overcome will be senior management level belief that out sourcing is always cheaper.
    out sourcing is rarely cheaper - but hey I don't have an MBA nor do I have to worry about shareholders.
    Here is my knowledge of outsourcing.
    https://www.assistum.com/examples/embeddedOutsourcing.html

    You start on the circles on the left and work towards the final recommendation on the right. It uses AI/fuzzy logic and will argue with you if it thinks you are being inconsistent. But as a human, you always have the last word.
    Sadly, it uses Flash which any sane person would not allow anywhere near their computer - both Microsoft Edge and Chrome now disable it by default.
    The technology is over 20 years old. When I retired 25 years ago I dumped all my key business knowledge and experience into an AI/fuzzy logic knowledge base that I created. This is one example.

    The background is here:
    https://www.assistum.com/documents/outsourcing.html
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 428

    HYUFD said:

    Interesting question.

    Is Biden, in making this pick, effectively although unknowingly, picking the next President of the United States? It is a long time since I saw a presidential candidate who looked so likely to fail to complete his term due to ill health in which case Biden is going to be deciding who the next POTUS is sometime over the next couple of months.

    I hope so.

    The alternative is either Trump winning another four years or four years of dementia Biden followed by the GOP regaining the White House (since the Veep would be overwhelming favourite for DNC in 2024). Neither is an appealing scenario.
    If Trump loses could be Romney as the next president after Biden in 2024.

    Romney is the anti Trump in the GOP as Hunt is the anti Boris here in the Tory Party
    Can't see the appeal of Hunt. He didn't do a great job at Health; anyone who sets out to antagonise the medics isn't well advised, and he was one of the people who buried Cygnus.
    Mitt Romney would be a reassuring figure in the White House. But has probably burnt too many boats so far as Republican Party is concerned. He voted to impeach Trump - admirably principled, but surely more than enough to create a host of bitter enemies.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 18,502
    DavidL said:

    Jonathan said:

    Amazon Prime have run out of Llamas. Trying Argos.

    There are some llamas in Bridgefoot which is in easy walking distance of me. How close and personal do I need to get with them? I fear looking at them over the fence won't cut it.
    Don't they spit when irritated?
  • SockySocky Posts: 404


    In the case in question, the MBAs were reading the report.

    It was written by ignorant fools* who only had experience in setting up and running industrial plants in various countries.

    I think that fashion plays a much bigger role in all decision making than we admit.

    Outsourcing has been very fashionable.
  • backinthedhssbackinthedhss Posts: 83
    Just watched a clip of Luke Johnson talking sense on QT last night:

    https://order-order.com/2020/05/15/question-time-entrepreneur-soon-lockdown-will-causing-deaths-virus/

    Can't believe the fragrant Fiona didn't shout over him.

    Anyway, he won't be invited back.
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