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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why Starmer is unlikely to be the next PM

SystemSystem Posts: 8,258
edited May 16 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why Starmer is unlikely to be the next PM

For the moment, Boris Johnson walks on water in terms of popularity. He enjoys positive approval ratings, his party sits on opinion poll leads of around 20% and is hoovering up about half the vote. All of which is likely to count for very little in a year’s time, never mind three.

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Comments

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 34,452
    edited May 16
    Can't be first, surely....?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 34,452
    edited May 16
    "combined with an NHS struggling from the usual winter pressures in addition to the lingering Covid-19 outbreak"

    It is possible that the huge awareness of public health issues might result in far less winter pressures on the NHS than we have grown to expect. Hopefully we have seen an end to people being far less inclined/expected/allowed to soldier on into the office with snotty-coughy-sneezy ailments. I also wonder whether the fall in A&E numbers might continue on to an extent, as we have now broken the habit of people just turning up there with every minor ailment.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 5,287
    There is a problem somewhere
  • I think the economics may turn out even worse for the government that you're suggesting (unfortunately for all of us). Even once lockdown is over, a significant proportion of the economy is hospitality and entertainment which depend on people going to crowded places, and a significant proportion of the population is now scared to do that. A lot of those furloughed businesses are finished, they just don't know it yet.
    None of which contradicts your central point - Starmer won't be the next PM. He may perhaps be the next but one, and he has a much better chance than Corbyn would have had, but the value in the market is with the Tory big-hitters who had already been punted to the back benches before the virus hit. Ridiculously long odds available on Hunt and Javid, at the moment.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 33,841
    I think David is right on this. The problem is who takes over. Sunak seems the obvious choice, but will he be once the tough decisions start to be made? The lack of talent in the Cabinet is truly something to behold. No wonder Sajid and Hunt are already on manouevres.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 28,303

    I think David is right on this. The problem is who takes over. Sunak seems the obvious choice, but will he be once the tough decisions start to be made? The lack of talent in the Cabinet is truly something to behold. No wonder Sajid and Hunt are already on manouevres.

    Sajid is a talentless no hoper, if he is the one then Starmer is a dead cert. Sunak looks the part at this point and if he continues as he is now he will be the top Tory by a mile. Hunt is about the only other one that sounds half competent.
    Going to be tough for Tories to hang on once Brexit piles the crap on top of the virus expenditure , I would not bet someone else's money on Tories at this point.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 4,669

    "combined with an NHS struggling from the usual winter pressures in addition to the lingering Covid-19 outbreak"

    It is possible that the huge awareness of public health issues might result in far less winter pressures on the NHS than we have grown to expect. Hopefully we have seen an end to people being far less inclined/expected/allowed to soldier on into the office with snotty-coughy-sneezy ailments. I also wonder whether the fall in A&E numbers might continue on to an extent, as we have now broken the habit of people just turning up there with every minor ailment.

    You may well be right, although if you are then the biggest contributory factor will surely be the sick elderly not arriving in A&E in the usual numbers? So many of them will be so terrified of catching Covid-19 that they'll end up trying to tough it out at home (and, in many cases, sadly dying as a result.) If I'm also right in my suspicion that an awful lot more people will die as a consequence of the measures taken to control the virus than from the disease itself, then the stay-home-and-die massacre - which is already well underway - will only make the situation even worse.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 4,669
    malcolmg said:

    I think David is right on this. The problem is who takes over. Sunak seems the obvious choice, but will he be once the tough decisions start to be made? The lack of talent in the Cabinet is truly something to behold. No wonder Sajid and Hunt are already on manouevres.

    Sajid is a talentless no hoper, if he is the one then Starmer is a dead cert. Sunak looks the part at this point and if he continues as he is now he will be the top Tory by a mile. Hunt is about the only other one that sounds half competent.
    Going to be tough for Tories to hang on once Brexit piles the crap on top of the virus expenditure , I would not bet someone else's money on Tories at this point.
    I'd go further than that and say that speculating about 2024 is essentially pointless. Not only have we no idea what the economic situation will look like by that point, we don't even know if the country as presently constituted will still exist.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 15,656
    DH is right that the Tory party is pretty swift to defenestrate a leader looking likely to lose an election.

    I have never been a Boris fan. He has always looked the bumbling amateur public school boy who bullshits his way through life. Many English voters clearly quite like that sort of crap still. I would prefer that we moved on from that, and am not the only Roundhead in the country.

    Historically he has always outpolled his party, and replacing him is no surefire route back to popularity. Particularly so when he has populated the front bench with low talent culture warriors.

    Sunak is the obvious exception, but it is easy to be popular when spending like a drunken sailor. How popular will he be when he is raising taxes, or delivering a diet of austerity gruel?
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 2,972
    edited May 16
    "If Johnson looks like a loser"

    There is so much that is right in this article that it's a pity the underlying premise renders it null and void.

    Johnson won the Tories their biggest victory since Margaret Thatcher. She was given free rein in three General Elections (1979, 1983, 1987) and no one would touch her.

    We tend to filter what we think we know through the prism of recent experience and I'm afraid David you have fallen foul of this. You're thinking Boris is Cameron. He isn't. Cameron did win but only just and his coalition victory followed by 12-seat majority gave the plotters the oxygen they needed.

    Boris has one single undeniable firewall. He won handsomely. The party won't touch him.

  • SockySocky Posts: 404
    However if a vaccine is found, and particularly if it is a UK developed one, that changes everything.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 6,072

    "If Johnson looks like a loser"

    There is so much that is right in this article that it's a pity the underlying premise renders it null and void.

    Johnson won the Tories their biggest victory since Margaret Thatcher. She was given free rein in three General Elections (1979, 1983, 1987) and no one would touch her. We tend to filter what we think we know through the prism of recent experience and I'm afraid David you have fallen foul of this. You're thinking Boris is Cameron. He isn't. Cameron did win but only just and his coalition victory followed by 12 seat majority gave the plotters the oxygen they needed.

    Boris has one single undeniable firewall. He won handsomely. The party won't touch him.

    So what. He was against Corbyn.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 2,972
    edited May 16

    I think David is right on this.

    He isn't. It's ridiculous wishful-thinking and an example of what happens if people bet with their heart not their head.

    Keep this article for one reason only. To look back and smile fondly at the folly of it.

    Boris Johnson will only step down before the 2024 election for one of two reasons 1. His health or 2. Boredom. Otherwise, the leadership is his for at least 8 more years.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 18,502
    Good morning ladies and gentlemen. Mysticrose, one point; memories are often short.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 26,149

    I think David is right on this.

    He isn't. It's ridiculous wishful-thinking and an example of what happens if people bet with their heart not their head.

    Keep this article for one reason only. To look back and smile fondly at the folly of it.

    Boris Johnson will only step down before the 2024 election for one of two reasons 1. His health or 2. Boredom. Otherwise, the leadership is his for at least 8 more years.
    But the longer he stays, the more likely his replacement is the Labour leader, rather than another Tory, surely? The bet is on next PM, without any time limit.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 2,221
    Anyone else on here with Reception, Year 1 or Year 6 children? Are you sending your kids back on June 1st? I am really conflicted about this. The school has been quite clear that social distancing is impossible in a primary school. While kids don't seem particularly prone to serious symptoms if they catch it (although there is this new Kawasaki syndrome-like cluster to worry about now) they seem to catch it at the same rate as adults and, one would assume, pass it on. Our kids are doing absolutely fine learning at home. The BMA and the teaching unions say it's not safe. The government have their own agenda of course, and have a history of taking too many risks with other people's safety, so I am not sure they can be trusted. Do any of the Cabinet even have kids at state schools? Any thoughts from people also in our situation gratefully received.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 4,877
    Foxy said:

    DH is right that the Tory party is pretty swift to defenestrate a leader looking likely to lose an election.


    One of the arguments against an act of tory faticide is that they have already seen Johnson's boundless capacity for disruptive treachery on the backbenches and may not feel like putting him back there.
  • SockySocky Posts: 404

    The lack of talent in the Cabinet is truly something to behold.

    Presumably you believe "talent" includes being left-wing?

    I think more generally we have a flawed belief that politicians of any flavour can and should run departments of state. I would prefer a system where the pols to take a chairing role, and appoint non-civil-service professional managers to run things day to day.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 3,197
    @david_herdson is right in the header. We can throw in that most Conservative MPs probably do not support Boris's policies, since Conservative policy was pro-Europe, or at least anti-Brexit, for the past several decades; economically, Boris lifted Labour's platform in direct opposition to Cameron and May's governments. Backbenchers who swallowed Osborne's austerity Kool Ade might struggle with Boris's unashamed, although economically pretty orthodox, expansionism and interventionism.

    Boris is leader because he had a large poll lead over the others. It is the same reason Tony Blair was tolerated by Labour's left. He was a winner. But Rishi Sunak now shares that, and there may be others to come. This means, along with the 80-seat majority @david_herdson alludes to, it will be safe to ditch Boris.

    But I expect, or half-expect since I've bet only a small amount, Boris to step down. Since his Covid-19 illness, he has looked unfit, has trouble breathing, and seemed mentally off his game at PMQs. Current reports are that he (and presumably his doctors) blame this on obesity but Boris's weight has been on a public roller-coaster for years which suggests maintaining a slim figure might be beyond him. And if his health does pick up, what of politics? Will 2021 see an end to Brexit and Covid-19 so Boris can reshape Britain as planned, or will the hard times continue?

    So based on the chances of Boris retiring or being ousted, I'd agree the next occupant of Number 10 will wear a blue rosette. Sorry, SKS.
  • coachcoach Posts: 96
    When people talk about talented politicians what does it mean?

    I assume it means they agree with them
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 15,656
    Dura_Ace said:

    Foxy said:

    DH is right that the Tory party is pretty swift to defenestrate a leader looking likely to lose an election.


    One of the arguments against an act of tory faticide is that they have already seen Johnson's boundless capacity for disruptive treachery on the backbenches and may not feel like putting him back there.
    I would expect him to step down if given the boot from number 10, and go back to writing and after dinner speaking. He has never been very keen on being an MP, just PM.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 3,197

    I think David is right on this.

    He isn't. It's ridiculous wishful-thinking and an example of what happens if people bet with their heart not their head.

    Keep this article for one reason only. To look back and smile fondly at the folly of it.

    Boris Johnson will only step down before the 2024 election for one of two reasons 1. His health or 2. Boredom. Otherwise, the leadership is his for at least 8 more years.
    You could be right. What do you estimate is the probability of Boris stepping down for health reasons? (Or boredom?)
  • coachcoach Posts: 96
    People expecting (hoping) Boris steps down are underestimating the ego of politicians especially at the highest level. Has it ever happened before?

    OK they stand down rsather than be sacked or sometimes over a point of principle but boredom? No chance
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 4,669
    Dura_Ace said:

    Foxy said:

    DH is right that the Tory party is pretty swift to defenestrate a leader looking likely to lose an election.


    One of the arguments against an act of tory faticide is that they have already seen Johnson's boundless capacity for disruptive treachery on the backbenches and may not feel like putting him back there.
    Except that do we seriously think that Boris Johnson won't suddenly discover a yearning to assume the stewardship of the Chiltern Hundreds as soon as he's out of Government? Is diddling about on the backbenches any more his style than it was Blair's, for example?
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 33,841

    I think David is right on this.

    He isn't. It's ridiculous wishful-thinking and an example of what happens if people bet with their heart not their head.

    Keep this article for one reason only. To look back and smile
    fondly at the folly of it.

    Boris Johnson will only step down before the 2024 election for one of two reasons 1. His health or 2.
    Boredom. Otherwise, the leadership is his for at least 8 more years.
    So you think Starmer is likely to be the next PM. Fair enough. I think the Tories are more ruthless than that and will get rid of Johnson if he looks like losing.

  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 5,069
    coach said:

    When people talk about talented politicians what does it mean?

    I assume it means they agree with them

    Not really. I can recognise Farage as talented and effective (in many but not all aspects) politically, without agreeing with him on very much at all.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 3,197
    Socky said:

    The lack of talent in the Cabinet is truly something to behold.

    Presumably you believe "talent" includes being left-wing?

    I think more generally we have a flawed belief that politicians of any flavour can and should run departments of state. I would prefer a system where the pols to take a chairing role, and appoint non-civil-service professional managers to run things day to day.
    Talented or not, it is certainly and objectively true that the Cabinet is inexperienced. Only Michael Gove has much (or any?) experience in running a department, and he is not running one now. This does not mean ministers lack talent but it is fair to ask why Theresa May did not appoint them.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 5,069
    Socky said:

    The lack of talent in the Cabinet is truly something to behold.

    Presumably you believe "talent" includes being left-wing?

    I think more generally we have a flawed belief that politicians of any flavour can and should run departments of state. I would prefer a system where the pols to take a chairing role, and appoint non-civil-service professional managers to run things day to day.
    My solution is to be qualified for a cabinet position you need to have served two years on the relevant sub-committee beforehand.

    Would limit the people available for each post but in turn allow politicians to get a much better grasp of their brief and stop the pointless musical chairs PMs like to play with their cabinets.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 33,841
    coach said:

    When people talk about talented politicians what does it mean?

    I assume it means they agree with them

    Not at all. Mrs Thatcher was exceptionally talented. She was incredibly effective and on top of her brief. In this Cabinet I think you can only say that of Gove, though Sunak offers promise. Osborne, too, from previous times.

  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 15,656
    Thornhill report makes painful reading. It would be hard to be otherwise after the 2019 GE

    "The report notes that while Swinson was hampered by having less than five months between winning the party leadership and the election, her decision to immediately seek a new party chief executive undermined decision-making structures.

    “This had the unintended consequence creating an ‘inner circle’ of advisers at arm’s length from the resources of the party machine, and put decision-making in the hands of an unaccountable group around the leader,” the report says. “It also severed some people from the roles and responsibilities they were employed to do, and led to the overpromotion of others.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/may/15/lib-dem-election-campaign-a-car-crash-says-partys-review
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 3,197
    coach said:

    People expecting (hoping) Boris steps down are underestimating the ego of politicians especially at the highest level. Has it ever happened before?

    OK they stand down rsather than be sacked or sometimes over a point of principle but boredom? No chance

    Keep an eye on Boris's pulse, or rather his breathing. Several Prime Ministers retired on health grounds, including Eden, Macmillan and Wilson.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 2,327
    Shortly before the lockdown was introduced the prime minister announced four “implementation committees” to deal with the response covering healthcare, the economy, the public sector and international matters.

    Michael Gove, who is minister for the Cabinet Office and chairs the public sector committee, is becoming increasingly powerful, colleagues say. “He is empire-building,” one cabinet minister said. “He has put himself at the heart of every major decision in government.” Another cabinet minister joked: “Did Boris really win the election so he could make Michael Gove prime minister?”

    A third asked rhetorically: “Who is the spider in the middle of this web? Michael Gove.”


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/coronavirus-michael-gove-makes-himself-the-spider-in-a-changing-government-web-j7g0gpb99
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 2,001

    Socky said:

    The lack of talent in the Cabinet is truly something to behold.

    Presumably you believe "talent" includes being left-wing?

    I think more generally we have a flawed belief that politicians of any flavour can and should run departments of state. I would prefer a system where the pols to take a chairing role, and appoint non-civil-service professional managers to run things day to day.
    My solution is to be qualified for a cabinet position you need to have served two years on the relevant sub-committee beforehand.

    Would limit the people available for each post but in turn allow politicians to get a much better grasp of their brief and stop the pointless musical chairs PMs like to play with their cabinets.
    There is a danger of that keeping the status quo . Fresh ideas needed all the time and some managed disruption.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 5,069
    Scott_xP said:

    Shortly before the lockdown was introduced the prime minister announced four “implementation committees” to deal with the response covering healthcare, the economy, the public sector and international matters.

    Michael Gove, who is minister for the Cabinet Office and chairs the public sector committee, is becoming increasingly powerful, colleagues say. “He is empire-building,” one cabinet minister said. “He has put himself at the heart of every major decision in government.” Another cabinet minister joked: “Did Boris really win the election so he could make Michael Gove prime minister?”

    A third asked rhetorically: “Who is the spider in the middle of this web? Michael Gove.”


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/coronavirus-michael-gove-makes-himself-the-spider-in-a-changing-government-web-j7g0gpb99

    The only minister with any experience and the one who finished higher than the others bar the PM in the leadership contest, who is also without his own department is the most influential in cross department committees shocker.

    If he wasnt the most powerful on those he may as well be sacked.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 2,327

    My solution is to be qualified for a cabinet position you need to have served two years on the relevant sub-committee beforehand.

    We have had enough of experts...
  • coachcoach Posts: 96

    coach said:

    When people talk about talented politicians what does it mean?

    I assume it means they agree with them

    Not at all. Mrs Thatcher was exceptionally talented. She was incredibly effective and on top of her brief. In this Cabinet I think you can only say that of Gove, though Sunak offers promise. Osborne, too, from previous times.

    According to the dictionary

    talent: natural aptitude or skill.

    I don't think being a politician is down to natural aptitude, that's being a musician, artist or athlete. Politicians have an unswerving belief that they can make life better for people, and very few can or do
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 23,232
    edited May 16
    Yes. If Boris goes it will be because he is medically not up to the job. I have backed him to exit from now until Sep 2021.

    He is evidently still not recovered fully and we shall see if his health improves but this might be as far as he goes (@foxy?).

    The danger for the country is that he will try to hang on and also, creating the right narrative for him to step down will be tricky.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 28,303

    malcolmg said:

    I think David is right on this. The problem is who takes over. Sunak seems the obvious choice, but will he be once the tough decisions start to be made? The lack of talent in the Cabinet is truly something to behold. No wonder Sajid and Hunt are already on manouevres.

    Sajid is a talentless no hoper, if he is the one then Starmer is a dead cert. Sunak looks the part at this point and if he continues as he is now he will be the top Tory by a mile. Hunt is about the only other one that sounds half competent.
    Going to be tough for Tories to hang on once Brexit piles the crap on top of the virus expenditure , I would not bet someone else's money on Tories at this point.
    I'd go further than that and say that speculating about 2024 is essentially pointless. Not only have we no idea what the economic situation will look like by that point, we don't even know if the country as presently constituted will still exist.
    I for one hope it is not, the sooner we are independent the better.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 28,303

    Scott_xP said:

    Shortly before the lockdown was introduced the prime minister announced four “implementation committees” to deal with the response covering healthcare, the economy, the public sector and international matters.

    Michael Gove, who is minister for the Cabinet Office and chairs the public sector committee, is becoming increasingly powerful, colleagues say. “He is empire-building,” one cabinet minister said. “He has put himself at the heart of every major decision in government.” Another cabinet minister joked: “Did Boris really win the election so he could make Michael Gove prime minister?”

    A third asked rhetorically: “Who is the spider in the middle of this web? Michael Gove.”


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/coronavirus-michael-gove-makes-himself-the-spider-in-a-changing-government-web-j7g0gpb99

    The only minister with any experience and the one who finished higher than the others bar the PM in the leadership contest, who is also without his own department is the most influential in cross department committees shocker.

    If he wasnt the most powerful on those he may as well be sacked.
    The creepy slimeball Gove would make Brown look like a Titan of a PM. There can be no-one in the UK who could be a worse choice than this arse.
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 2,001
    coach said:

    coach said:

    When people talk about talented politicians what does it mean?

    I assume it means they agree with them

    Not at all. Mrs Thatcher was exceptionally talented. She was incredibly effective and on top of her brief. In this Cabinet I think you can only say that of Gove, though Sunak offers promise. Osborne, too, from previous times.

    According to the dictionary

    talent: natural aptitude or skill.

    I don't think being a politician is down to natural aptitude, that's being a musician, artist or athlete. Politicians have an unswerving belief that they can make life better for people, and very few can or do
    I do cringe when the word talented is applied to politicians or business leaders . It was a bit cringeworthy when it only was used in relation to showbusiness . Frankly it is a word that should be restricted to people who can juggle or do tumble turns imho.
    Grown up people should be talked about in terms of genuine achievement or character not talked about as talented (whatever that means in fact)
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 28,303
    Scott_xP said:

    My solution is to be qualified for a cabinet position you need to have served two years on the relevant sub-committee beforehand.

    We have had enough of experts...
    +1
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 3,197
    Scott_xP said:

    Shortly before the lockdown was introduced the prime minister announced four “implementation committees” to deal with the response covering healthcare, the economy, the public sector and international matters.

    Michael Gove, who is minister for the Cabinet Office and chairs the public sector committee, is becoming increasingly powerful, colleagues say. “He is empire-building,” one cabinet minister said. “He has put himself at the heart of every major decision in government.” Another cabinet minister joked: “Did Boris really win the election so he could make Michael Gove prime minister?”

    A third asked rhetorically: “Who is the spider in the middle of this web? Michael Gove.”


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/coronavirus-michael-gove-makes-himself-the-spider-in-a-changing-government-web-j7g0gpb99

    Gove is the only experienced minister in the Cabinet and in the past has been allied with both Boris and Dominic Cummings, who were inconveniently sidelined by covid-19. I suspect the conspirator-in-chief is Cummings and Gove the beneficiary.
  • coachcoach Posts: 96
    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    I think David is right on this. The problem is who takes over. Sunak seems the obvious choice, but will he be once the tough decisions start to be made? The lack of talent in the Cabinet is truly something to behold. No wonder Sajid and Hunt are already on manouevres.

    Sajid is a talentless no hoper, if he is the one then Starmer is a dead cert. Sunak looks the part at this point and if he continues as he is now he will be the top Tory by a mile. Hunt is about the only other one that sounds half competent.
    Going to be tough for Tories to hang on once Brexit piles the crap on top of the virus expenditure , I would not bet someone else's money on Tories at this point.
    I'd go further than that and say that speculating about 2024 is essentially pointless. Not only have we no idea what the economic situation will look like by that point, we don't even know if the country as presently constituted will still exist.
    I for one hope it is not, the sooner we are independent the better.
    I'll second that, a vote in England would ensure Scottish independence
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 28,303

    I think David is right on this.

    He isn't. It's ridiculous wishful-thinking and an example of what happens if people bet with their heart not their head.

    Keep this article for one reason only. To look back and smile fondly at the folly of it.

    Boris Johnson will only step down before the 2024 election for one of two reasons 1. His health or 2. Boredom. Otherwise, the leadership is his for at least 8 more years.
    You could be right. What do you estimate is the probability of Boris stepping down for health reasons? (Or boredom?)
    Or just because he is absolutely crap at it.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 21,228
    Scott_xP said:
    Whether you agree with it or not that is a brilliant analogy.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 23,232
    I've never been more aware of the BBC as a State Broadcaster than now. It's mobile front page is essentially a cut and paste from the Ministry of Information.

    Even to the point of getting it presumably intentionally wrong over the new exercise rules. It says you can now exercise outside with someone from outside your household for the first time. Which is wrong. You always could.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 802
    coach said:

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    I think David is right on this. The problem is who takes over. Sunak seems the obvious choice, but will he be once the tough decisions start to be made? The lack of talent in the Cabinet is truly something to behold. No wonder Sajid and Hunt are already on manouevres.

    Sajid is a talentless no hoper, if he is the one then Starmer is a dead cert. Sunak looks the part at this point and if he continues as he is now he will be the top Tory by a mile. Hunt is about the only other one that sounds half competent.
    Going to be tough for Tories to hang on once Brexit piles the crap on top of the virus expenditure , I would not bet someone else's money on Tories at this point.
    I'd go further than that and say that speculating about 2024 is essentially pointless. Not only have we no idea what the economic situation will look like by that point, we don't even know if the country as presently constituted will still exist.
    I for one hope it is not, the sooner we are independent the better.
    I'll second that, a vote in England would ensure Scottish independence
    Scotland I'm indifferent about. But Northern Ireland is an expensive pain and the sooner the Irish take it over, the better.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 13,729
    Scott_xP said:

    My solution is to be qualified for a cabinet position you need to have served two years on the relevant sub-committee beforehand.

    We have had enough of experts...
    Indeed:

    https://mobile.twitter.com/piersmorgan/status/1261343230144032770
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 14,537
    Reasons leaders have departed early before facing an election....

    1) Total political failure (Eden, Cameron)
    2) An obvious electoral liability (May, IDS)
    3) Outstayed their welcome after a long stint (Thatcher, Blair)
    4) Health (Macmillan, Wilson, Churchill, Gaitskill, Smith)

    The others leaders left after defeat (some after hanging on too long). So where does that leave Boris going before 2024? Most like 4, then 2, then 1. I suspect if defeat become likely he will not hang around to take the humiliation.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 3,427
    edited May 16
    Fishing said:

    Foxy said:

    DH is right that the Tory party is pretty swift to defenestrate a leader looking likely to lose an election.

    I have never been a Boris fan. He has always looked the bumbling amateur public school boy who bullshits his way through life.

    It got Blair three election victories, didn't it?

    And being thoughtful oiks got Brown and May precisely nowhere, after some initial successes.

    You could easily make a case that the country likes being led by people who make them feel more optimistic, especially when the circumstances don't justify it. For my money, we've had two leaders like that in the past two decades (Blair and Johnson), and two who clearly weren't (Brown and May). Cameron is somewhere between, hence his mediocre but not disastrous electoral record.
    Not sure that Oik is accurate.

    Brown's School was founded in 1582. TH was private then Grammar.

    Not toffs - sure. Oiks? No.

    (Didn't actually realise that Brown is a Doctor).
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 2,001

    Scott_xP said:

    Shortly before the lockdown was introduced the prime minister announced four “implementation committees” to deal with the response covering healthcare, the economy, the public sector and international matters.

    Michael Gove, who is minister for the Cabinet Office and chairs the public sector committee, is becoming increasingly powerful, colleagues say. “He is empire-building,” one cabinet minister said. “He has put himself at the heart of every major decision in government.” Another cabinet minister joked: “Did Boris really win the election so he could make Michael Gove prime minister?”

    A third asked rhetorically: “Who is the spider in the middle of this web? Michael Gove.”


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/coronavirus-michael-gove-makes-himself-the-spider-in-a-changing-government-web-j7g0gpb99

    Gove is the only experienced minister in the Cabinet and in the past has been allied with both Boris and Dominic Cummings, who were inconveniently sidelined by covid-19. I suspect the conspirator-in-chief is Cummings and Gove the beneficiary.
    Well if thats true , then good! Gove could not be PM as he does not have the voter pull but he has energy to do stuff and was effective in change at Education and DEFRA and the MOJ. All successful organisations have a competent person behind the scenes.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 5,889
    edited May 16
    Socky said:

    However if a vaccine is found, and particularly if it is a UK developed one, that changes everything.

    The other possibility is the discovery that very many people have a natural immunity to the virus, perhaps a genetic thing. Perhaps over half the population.

    It would explain why the epidemic fizzled out in China and Iran and perhaps London which can't be explained by herd immunity from infection. It would also explain the anecdotes of couples where one dies of the virus and the other apparently doesn't catch it in spite of their extreme closeness.

    If true, and it fizzled out over the summer, it would be a game changer. Trump would be vindicated and re-elected. All countries would have massive financial hang-overs. Scientists would be discredited.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 15,656
    coach said:

    When people talk about talented politicians what does it mean?

    I assume it means they agree with them

    Not always. Mrs Thatcher was certainly talented, but not to my political taste. Peter Mandleson would be another example.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 3,427
    nichomar said:

    There is a problem somewhere

    NSS :-)
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 19,837
    edited May 16
    Fishing said:

    Foxy said:

    DH is right that the Tory party is pretty swift to defenestrate a leader looking likely to lose an election.

    I have never been a Boris fan. He has always looked the bumbling amateur public school boy who bullshits his way through life.

    It got Blair three election victories, didn't it?

    And being thoughtful oiks got Brown and May precisely nowhere, after some initial successes.

    You could easily make a case that the country likes being led by people who make them feel more optimistic, especially when the circumstances don't justify it. For my money, we've had two leaders like that in the past two decades (Blair and Johnson), and two who clearly weren't (Brown and May). Cameron is somewhere between, hence his mediocre but not disastrous electoral record.
    ?
    Perhaps my antennae aren't as developed as those of the class obsessed English, but to me Blair always gave the impression of suppressing his public school background, appeared anything but bumbling and his adoption of estuarine tones was the opposite of Johnson's Classical pretensions.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 33,462

    Socky said:

    The lack of talent in the Cabinet is truly something to behold.

    Presumably you believe "talent" includes being left-wing?

    I think more generally we have a flawed belief that politicians of any flavour can and should run departments of state. I would prefer a system where the pols to take a chairing role, and appoint non-civil-service professional managers to run things day to day.
    Talented or not, it is certainly and objectively true that the Cabinet is inexperienced. Only Michael Gove has much (or any?) experience in running a department, and he is not running one now. This does not mean ministers lack talent but it is fair to ask why Theresa May did not appoint them.
    Because Mrs May was appointing people based on who had or hadn't rebelled on the most central issue of the day. That ruled out a good chunk of the party. Mrs May cut herself off from a lot of talent and saw a record number of people resign or be sacked in such a short space of time.

    While this is a government that replaced her by being led by those who were the rebels under May on the most central issue of the day.

    I wouldn't expect Leia Organa's government post Return of the Jedi to be stuffed full of Palpatine's ministers.
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 2,001
    Jonathan said:

    Reasons leaders have departed early before facing an election....

    1) Total political failure (Eden, Cameron)
    2) An obvious electoral liability (May, IDS)
    3) Outstayed their welcome after a long stint (Thatcher, Blair)
    4) Health (Macmillan, Wilson, Churchill, Gaitskill, Smith)

    The others leaders left after defeat (some after hanging on too long). So where does that leave Boris going before 2024? Most like 4, then 2, then 1. I suspect if defeat become likely he will not hang around to take the humiliation.

    I think May was more 1) but was probably a bit of 2) as well. Not sure Blair so much outstayed his welcome but maybe thought he was like Alexandra The Great having no more worlds to conquer . If there is an argument for somebody stepping down semi- voluntarily it was probably Blair.
    I would say Thatcher was also a bit of 4) .As it was mental illness it probably manifested itself under 3 ) in the decisions she made late n her office and her personality becoming more extreme and odd. This was a great pity as I think the public and tory party knew it but because she was so effective in her early years it was thought a huge tragedy for her followers.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 2,327

    Perhaps my antennae aren't as developed as those of the class obsessed English, but to me Blair always gave the impression of suppressing his public school background, appeared anything but bumbling and his adoption of estuarine tones was the opposite of Johnson's Classical pretensions.

  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 5,889

    coach said:

    coach said:

    When people talk about talented politicians what does it mean?

    I assume it means they agree with them

    Not at all. Mrs Thatcher was exceptionally talented. She was incredibly effective and on top of her brief. In this Cabinet I think you can only say that of Gove, though Sunak offers promise. Osborne, too, from previous times.

    According to the dictionary

    talent: natural aptitude or skill.

    I don't think being a politician is down to natural aptitude, that's being a musician, artist or athlete. Politicians have an unswerving belief that they can make life better for people, and very few can or do
    I do cringe when the word talented is applied to politicians or business leaders . It was a bit cringeworthy when it only was used in relation to showbusiness . Frankly it is a word that should be restricted to people who can juggle or do tumble turns imho.
    Grown up people should be talked about in terms of genuine achievement or character not talked about as talented (whatever that means in fact)
    There are skillful politicians. Bill Clinton for example. Tony Blair for another. If it's a natural skill, you could call them talented.
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 2,001
    edited May 16

    Fishing said:

    Foxy said:

    DH is right that the Tory party is pretty swift to defenestrate a leader looking likely to lose an election.

    I have never been a Boris fan. He has always looked the bumbling amateur public school boy who bullshits his way through life.

    It got Blair three election victories, didn't it?

    And being thoughtful oiks got Brown and May precisely nowhere, after some initial successes.

    You could easily make a case that the country likes being led by people who make them feel more optimistic, especially when the circumstances don't justify it. For my money, we've had two leaders like that in the past two decades (Blair and Johnson), and two who clearly weren't (Brown and May). Cameron is somewhere between, hence his mediocre but not disastrous electoral record.
    ?
    Perhaps my antennae aren't as developed as those of the class obsessed English, but to me Blair always gave the impression of suppressing his public school background, appeared anything but bumbling and his adoption of estuarine tones was the opposite of Johnson's Classical pretensions.
    I think Jeremy Clarkson was quite perceptive when he stated to Boris Johnson (when Mayor)

    Most politicians, as far as I can work out, are pretty incompetent, and then have a veneer of competence, you do seem to do it the other way around.


  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 32,968
    Jonathan said:

    Reasons leaders have departed early before facing an election....

    1) Total political failure (Eden, Cameron)
    2) An obvious electoral liability (May, IDS)
    3) Outstayed their welcome after a long stint (Thatcher, Blair)
    4) Health (Macmillan, Wilson, Churchill, Gaitskill, Smith)

    The others leaders left after defeat (some after hanging on too long). So where does that leave Boris going before 2024? Most like 4, then 2, then 1. I suspect if defeat become likely he will not hang around to take the humiliation.

    Boris has not recovered yet and he has obviously lost weight

    To me it depends on whether he has been weakened to such an extent he cannot regain his full fitness then I expect sometime in 2021, and post brexit, he may well decide to hand over to spend more time with Carrie and his son while re-entering journalism and writing

    However, if he does get back to full fitness I see no reason why he will stand down
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 32,968
    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    I think David is right on this. The problem is who takes over. Sunak seems the obvious choice, but will he be once the tough decisions start to be made? The lack of talent in the Cabinet is truly something to behold. No wonder Sajid and Hunt are already on manouevres.

    Sajid is a talentless no hoper, if he is the one then Starmer is a dead cert. Sunak looks the part at this point and if he continues as he is now he will be the top Tory by a mile. Hunt is about the only other one that sounds half competent.
    Going to be tough for Tories to hang on once Brexit piles the crap on top of the virus expenditure , I would not bet someone else's money on Tories at this point.
    I'd go further than that and say that speculating about 2024 is essentially pointless. Not only have we no idea what the economic situation will look like by that point, we don't even know if the country as presently constituted will still exist.
    I for one hope it is not, the sooner we are independent the better.
    On this day in 1964 I married my beloved at St Gerardine's Church in Lossiemouth
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 2,327
    Those betting on BoZo's departure date would do well to factor in the timing of the inevitable public inquiry
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 14,537

    Fishing said:

    Foxy said:

    DH is right that the Tory party is pretty swift to defenestrate a leader looking likely to lose an election.

    I have never been a Boris fan. He has always looked the bumbling amateur public school boy who bullshits his way through life.

    It got Blair three election victories, didn't it?

    And being thoughtful oiks got Brown and May precisely nowhere, after some initial successes.

    You could easily make a case that the country likes being led by people who make them feel more optimistic, especially when the circumstances don't justify it. For my money, we've had two leaders like that in the past two decades (Blair and Johnson), and two who clearly weren't (Brown and May). Cameron is somewhere between, hence his mediocre but not disastrous electoral record.
    ?
    Perhaps my antennae aren't as developed as those of the class obsessed English, but to me Blair always gave the impression of suppressing his public school background, appeared anything but bumbling and his adoption of estuarine tones was the opposite of Johnson's Classical pretensions.
    I think Jeremy Clarkson was quite perceptive when he stated to Boris Johnson (when Major)

    Most politicians, as far as I can work out, are pretty incompetent, and then have a veneer of competence, you do seem to do it the other way around.


    Three layers with Boris.

    1) His buffoon persona
    2) A ruthless, narcissistic and effective political campaigner
    3) An incompetent administrator lacking judgement on the key decisions.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 28,118

    Fishing said:

    Foxy said:

    DH is right that the Tory party is pretty swift to defenestrate a leader looking likely to lose an election.

    I have never been a Boris fan. He has always looked the bumbling amateur public school boy who bullshits his way through life.

    It got Blair three election victories, didn't it?

    And being thoughtful oiks got Brown and May precisely nowhere, after some initial successes.

    You could easily make a case that the country likes being led by people who make them feel more optimistic, especially when the circumstances don't justify it. For my money, we've had two leaders like that in the past two decades (Blair and Johnson), and two who clearly weren't (Brown and May). Cameron is somewhere between, hence his mediocre but not disastrous electoral record.
    ?
    Perhaps my antennae aren't as developed as those of the class obsessed English, but to me Blair always gave the impression of suppressing his public school background, appeared anything but bumbling and his adoption of estuarine tones was the opposite of Johnson's Classical pretensions.
    I think Jeremy Clarkson was quite perceptive when he stated to Boris Johnson (when Mayor)

    Most politicians, as far as I can work out, are pretty incompetent, and then have a veneer of competence, you do seem to do it the other way around.


    Johnson’s reply was a rare truthful moment though.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 4,669
    Barnesian said:

    Socky said:

    However if a vaccine is found, and particularly if it is a UK developed one, that changes everything.

    The other possibility is the discovery that very many people have a natural immunity to the virus, perhaps a genetic thing. Perhaps over half the population.

    It would explain why the epidemic fizzled out in China and Iran and perhaps London which can't be explained by herd immunity from infection. It would also explain the anecdotes of couples where one dies of the virus and the other apparently doesn't catch it in spite of their extreme closeness.

    If true, and it fizzled out over the summer, it would be a game changer. Trump would be vindicated and re-elected. All countries would have massive financial hang-overs. Scientists would be discredited.
    Another scenario to be filed away under "too good to be true," I fear.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 33,841
    coach said:

    coach said:

    When people talk about talented politicians what does it mean?

    I assume it means they agree with them

    Not at all. Mrs Thatcher was exceptionally talented. She was incredibly effective and on top of her brief.
    In this Cabinet I
    think you can only say that of Gove, though Sunak offers promise. Osborne, too, from previous times.

    According to the dictionary

    talent: natural aptitude or skill.

    I don't think being a politician
    is down to natural aptitude, that's being a musician, artist or athlete.
    Politicians have an unswerving
    belief that they can make life better for people, and very few can or do.
    I disagree. I think talented politicians can, for example, seize a moment and make it theirs. They can also give the appearance of thinking one thing while doing another. They are also very good at avoiding booby traps. Of course, talent only gets you so far and it can also wane. That latter point may apply to Johnson.

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 53,926

    "If Johnson looks like a loser"

    There is so much that is right in this article that it's a pity the underlying premise renders it null and void.

    Johnson won the Tories their biggest victory since Margaret Thatcher. She was given free rein in three General Elections (1979, 1983, 1987) and no one would touch her. We tend to filter what we think we know through the prism of recent experience and I'm afraid David you have fallen foul of this. You're thinking Boris is Cameron. He isn't. Cameron did win but only just and his coalition victory followed by 12 seat majority gave the plotters the oxygen they needed.

    Boris has one single undeniable firewall. He won handsomely. The party won't touch him.

    So what. He was against Corbyn.
    You have to beat what's in front of you. He not only did that he won by a country mile. Yes the weakness of Corbyn must be taken into account but given Boris is not without weaknesses I dont understand the viewpoint that the scale of his victory should just be discounted as if nothing to do with him. Its extremely churlish.

    I remain broadly of the view that Boris could not have achieved the victory Cameron did in 2015 and Cameron could not have achieved the victory Boris did on 2019. The flaws and talents of each, against what they faced, are critical.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 28,303
    TOPPING said:

    I've never been more aware of the BBC as a State Broadcaster than now. It's mobile front page is essentially a cut and paste from the Ministry of Information.

    Even to the point of getting it presumably intentionally wrong over the new exercise rules. It says you can now exercise outside with someone from outside your household for the first time. Which is wrong. You always could.

    we have been painfully aware of that in Scotland for many years
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 53,926
    Scott_xP said:
    You expected him to say 'we're in the shit lads'?
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 28,303

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    I think David is right on this. The problem is who takes over. Sunak seems the obvious choice, but will he be once the tough decisions start to be made? The lack of talent in the Cabinet is truly something to behold. No wonder Sajid and Hunt are already on manouevres.

    Sajid is a talentless no hoper, if he is the one then Starmer is a dead cert. Sunak looks the part at this point and if he continues as he is now he will be the top Tory by a mile. Hunt is about the only other one that sounds half competent.
    Going to be tough for Tories to hang on once Brexit piles the crap on top of the virus expenditure , I would not bet someone else's money on Tories at this point.
    I'd go further than that and say that speculating about 2024 is essentially pointless. Not only have we no idea what the economic situation will look like by that point, we don't even know if the country as presently constituted will still exist.
    I for one hope it is not, the sooner we are independent the better.
    On this day in 1964 I married my beloved at St Gerardine's Church in Lossiemouth
    56 years G, congratulations, hope you have many more happy anniversaries together.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 8,227
    Dura_Ace said:

    Foxy said:

    DH is right that the Tory party is pretty swift to defenestrate a leader looking likely to lose an election.


    One of the arguments against an act of tory faticide is that they have already seen Johnson's boundless capacity for disruptive treachery on the backbenches and may not feel like putting him back there.
    Can't see Boris hanging around once booted out.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 28,303

    Fishing said:

    Foxy said:

    DH is right that the Tory party is pretty swift to defenestrate a leader looking likely to lose an election.

    I have never been a Boris fan. He has always looked the bumbling amateur public school boy who bullshits his way through life.

    It got Blair three election victories, didn't it?

    And being thoughtful oiks got Brown and May precisely nowhere, after some initial successes.

    You could easily make a case that the country likes being led by people who make them feel more optimistic, especially when the circumstances don't justify it. For my money, we've had two leaders like that in the past two decades (Blair and Johnson), and two who clearly weren't (Brown and May). Cameron is somewhere between, hence his mediocre but not disastrous electoral record.
    ?
    Perhaps my antennae aren't as developed as those of the class obsessed English, but to me Blair always gave the impression of suppressing his public school background, appeared anything but bumbling and his adoption of estuarine tones was the opposite of Johnson's Classical pretensions.
    I think Jeremy Clarkson was quite perceptive when he stated to Boris Johnson (when Mayor)

    Most politicians, as far as I can work out, are pretty incompetent, and then have a veneer of competence, you do seem to do it the other way around.


    Loony, it was sarcasm, he knew well Boris was an incompetent lying toerag.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 2,327
    kle4 said:

    You expected him to say 'we're in the shit lads'?

    In so far as one might expect the Prime Minister of the day to be a realist, yes.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 28,118
    kle4 said:

    Scott_xP said:
    You expected him to say 'we're in the shit lads'?
    The Hungarian PM did a few years back.

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/5354972.stm

    Admittedly, it was a factor in fuelling the return of Viktor Orban.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 32,968
    Scott_xP said:

    Those betting on BoZo's departure date would do well to factor in the timing of the inevitable public inquiry

    I expect any public enquiry will expose PHE as unfit for purpose and will have serious criticism of the NHS as an organisation. Furthermore Sage may well have questions to answer

    It is quite clear listening to Nicola that she has acted exactly as Boris until this last couple of weeks, especially in respect of care homes. She continually repeats she will only follow the advice so it is fair to assume in the Cobra meetings, both Boris and Nicola acted on that advise.

    Boris is reported to have said in the 1922 meeting yesterday that PHE have questions to answer.

    I know you have a bitter take on Boris but you may find that the public enquiries have a lot more to say about the public health bodies and the scientific advisors
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 53,926
    Scott_xP said:

    Those betting on BoZo's departure date would do well to factor in the timing of the inevitable public inquiry

    What was the last enquiry that generated more heat than light I wonder?

    It surely must have happened, but I can already see the usual public flappery over who's on it, who leads it and what's its scope is, which is usually led by groups who've already made up their minds who is to blame (and thus implicitly arent truly focusing on seeing what emerges) which will delay it months. I look forward to whichever person leading it is attacked for being establishment and people being furious that relatives of the deceased are not involved in every single aspect of its planning or operation.

    And itll be so complex and huge there'll probably be half a dozen different ones to magnify those issues.

    It has to happen of course, but I expect it'll be an absolute nightmare even to get going.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 33,841

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    I think David is right on this. The problem is who takes over. Sunak seems the obvious choice, but will he be once the tough decisions start to be made? The lack of talent in the Cabinet is truly something to behold. No wonder Sajid and Hunt are already on manouevres.

    Sajid is a talentless no hoper, if he is the one then Starmer is a dead cert. Sunak looks the part at this point and if he continues as he is now he will be the top Tory by a mile.
    Hunt is about the only other one that sounds half competent.
    Going to be tough for Tories to hang on once Brexit piles the crap on top of the virus expenditure , I would not bet someone else's money on Tories at this point.
    I'd go further than that and say that speculating
    about 2024 is essentially pointless.
    Not only have we no idea what the economic situation will look like by that point, we don't even know if the country as presently constituted will still exist.
    I for one hope it is not, the sooner we are independent the better.
    On this day in 1964 I married my beloved at St Gerardine's Church in Lossiemouth
    Many congratulations. You’ve been married just over two weeks longer than I’ve been alive!!

  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 2,327

    I know you have a bitter take on Boris but you may find that the public enquiries have a lot more to say about the public health bodies and the scientific advisors

    Advisors advise, ministers decide...

  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 14,537

    Scott_xP said:

    Those betting on BoZo's departure date would do well to factor in the timing of the inevitable public inquiry

    I expect any public enquiry will expose PHE as unfit for purpose and will have serious criticism of the NHS as an organisation. Furthermore Sage may well have questions to answer

    It is quite clear listening to Nicola that she has acted exactly as Boris until this last couple of weeks, especially in respect of care homes. She continually repeats she will only follow the advice so it is fair to assume in the Cobra meetings, both Boris and Nicola acted on that advise.

    Boris is reported to have said in the 1922 meeting yesterday that PHE have questions to answer.

    I know you have a bitter take on Boris but you may find that the public enquiries have a lot more to say about the public health bodies and the scientific advisors
    Boris deflecting his responsibility and any blame onto civil servants. 🤷‍♂️
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 32,965

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    I think David is right on this. The problem is who takes over. Sunak seems the obvious choice, but will he be once the tough decisions start to be made? The lack of talent in the Cabinet is truly something to behold. No wonder Sajid and Hunt are already on manouevres.

    Sajid is a talentless no hoper, if he is the one then Starmer is a dead cert. Sunak looks the part at this point and if he continues as he is now he will be the top Tory by a mile. Hunt is about the only other one that sounds half competent.
    Going to be tough for Tories to hang on once Brexit piles the crap on top of the virus expenditure , I would not bet someone else's money on Tories at this point.
    I'd go further than that and say that speculating about 2024 is essentially pointless. Not only have we no idea what the economic situation will look like by that point, we don't even know if the country as presently constituted will still exist.
    I for one hope it is not, the sooner we are independent the better.
    On this day in 1964 I married my beloved at St Gerardine's Church in Lossiemouth
    Many congratulations to you and your wife Big_G. Here's to many more years.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 32,968
    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    I think David is right on this. The problem is who takes over. Sunak seems the obvious choice, but will he be once the tough decisions start to be made? The lack of talent in the Cabinet is truly something to behold. No wonder Sajid and Hunt are already on manouevres.

    Sajid is a talentless no hoper, if he is the one then Starmer is a dead cert. Sunak looks the part at this point and if he continues as he is now he will be the top Tory by a mile. Hunt is about the only other one that sounds half competent.
    Going to be tough for Tories to hang on once Brexit piles the crap on top of the virus expenditure , I would not bet someone else's money on Tories at this point.
    I'd go further than that and say that speculating about 2024 is essentially pointless. Not only have we no idea what the economic situation will look like by that point, we don't even know if the country as presently constituted will still exist.
    I for one hope it is not, the sooner we are independent the better.
    On this day in 1964 I married my beloved at St Gerardine's Church in Lossiemouth
    56 years G, congratulations, hope you have many more happy anniversaries together.
    Thanks Malc.

    Time has flown by and we have so many blessings
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 28,118
    Jonathan said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Those betting on BoZo's departure date would do well to factor in the timing of the inevitable public inquiry

    I expect any public enquiry will expose PHE as unfit for purpose and will have serious criticism of the NHS as an organisation. Furthermore Sage may well have questions to answer

    It is quite clear listening to Nicola that she has acted exactly as Boris until this last couple of weeks, especially in respect of care homes. She continually repeats she will only follow the advice so it is fair to assume in the Cobra meetings, both Boris and Nicola acted on that advise.

    Boris is reported to have said in the 1922 meeting yesterday that PHE have questions to answer.

    I know you have a bitter take on Boris but you may find that the public enquiries have a lot more to say about the public health bodies and the scientific advisors
    Boris deflecting his responsibility and any blame onto civil servants. 🤷‍♂️
    Silly twat.

    A golden opportunity like this to deflect blame onto an erratic and dishonest chancer with the intellect of a dead stoat, and he takes aim at civil servants instead?
  • FishingFishing Posts: 802

    Fishing said:

    Foxy said:

    DH is right that the Tory party is pretty swift to defenestrate a leader looking likely to lose an election.

    I have never been a Boris fan. He has always looked the bumbling amateur public school boy who bullshits his way through life.

    It got Blair three election victories, didn't it?

    And being thoughtful oiks got Brown and May precisely nowhere, after some initial successes.

    You could easily make a case that the country likes being led by people who make them feel more optimistic, especially when the circumstances don't justify it. For my money, we've had two leaders like that in the past two decades (Blair and Johnson), and two who clearly weren't (Brown and May). Cameron is somewhere between, hence his mediocre but not disastrous electoral record.
    ?
    Perhaps my antennae aren't as developed as those of the class obsessed English, but to me Blair always gave the impression of suppressing his public school background, appeared anything but bumbling and his adoption of estuarine tones was the opposite of Johnson's Classical pretensions.
    You're right about all that - Blair was never bumbling. But he was an amateur at government, being totally without governmental experience when he was elected. And he was definitely public school and a bullshitter - I'd say more than Johnson, who is much more intellectual.

    Neither Blair nor Johnson are issues- or ideology-driven politicians, the way Margaret Thatcher or Gordon Brown were.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 53,926
    edited May 16
    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    Scott_xP said:
    You expected him to say 'we're in the shit lads'?
    The Hungarian PM did a few years back.

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/5354972.stm

    Admittedly, it was a factor in fuelling the return of Viktor Orban.
    That sort of thing being leaked is why politicians stay on message even in private I suspect. I wonder if maintaining spin at all times like that damages MP relations as they simply cannot be frank with each other at any point.
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 1,342
    Scott_xP said:

    Those betting on BoZo's departure date would do well to factor in the timing of the inevitable public inquiry

    An inevitable public inquiry overseen by a government with a landslide majority? Yeah, that's going to turn out really badly for them :smile:
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 32,968

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    I think David is right on this. The problem is who takes over. Sunak seems the obvious choice, but will he be once the tough decisions start to be made? The lack of talent in the Cabinet is truly something to behold. No wonder Sajid and Hunt are already on manouevres.

    Sajid is a talentless no hoper, if he is the one then Starmer is a dead cert. Sunak looks the part at this point and if he continues as he is now he will be the top Tory by a mile. Hunt is about the only other one that sounds half competent.
    Going to be tough for Tories to hang on once Brexit piles the crap on top of the virus expenditure , I would not bet someone else's money on Tories at this point.
    I'd go further than that and say that speculating about 2024 is essentially pointless. Not only have we no idea what the economic situation will look like by that point, we don't even know if the country as presently constituted will still exist.
    I for one hope it is not, the sooner we are independent the better.
    On this day in 1964 I married my beloved at St Gerardine's Church in Lossiemouth
    Many congratulations to you and your wife Big_G. Here's to many more years.
    Thank you
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 35,323
    Excellent summary, David.

    I'd also add that once Brexit is done and a semblance of normality restored to trading relationships (which might be 2022 or even 2023, and not necessarily 2021) then politics as usual will take over the Tory party.

    The Leave/Remain split will be far less important than who has the answers on economic growth, the future of AI, security and China.

    That makes the factional calculations in the Tory party far more fluid, so if Boris spends everything in his political bank account in the next 2-3 years then be very open-minded about who could succeed him.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 53,926

    coach said:

    coach said:

    When people talk about talented politicians what does it mean?

    I assume it means they agree with them

    Not at all. Mrs Thatcher was exceptionally talented. She was incredibly effective and on top of her brief.
    In this Cabinet I
    think you can only say that of Gove, though Sunak offers promise. Osborne, too, from previous times.

    According to the dictionary

    talent: natural aptitude or skill.

    I don't think being a politician
    is down to natural aptitude, that's being a musician, artist or athlete.
    Politicians have an unswerving
    belief that they can make life better for people, and very few can or do.
    I disagree. I think talented politicians can, for example, seize a moment and make it theirs. They can also give the appearance of thinking one thing while doing another. They are also very good at avoiding booby traps. Of course, talent only gets you so far and it can also wane. That latter point may apply to Johnson.

    I agree completely.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 35,323
    TGOHF666 said:
    The Commission is doing this to virtue signal a bit of power over the UK.

    Fairness and equity don't come into it.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 32,968
    Jonathan said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Those betting on BoZo's departure date would do well to factor in the timing of the inevitable public inquiry

    I expect any public enquiry will expose PHE as unfit for purpose and will have serious criticism of the NHS as an organisation. Furthermore Sage may well have questions to answer

    It is quite clear listening to Nicola that she has acted exactly as Boris until this last couple of weeks, especially in respect of care homes. She continually repeats she will only follow the advice so it is fair to assume in the Cobra meetings, both Boris and Nicola acted on that advise.

    Boris is reported to have said in the 1922 meeting yesterday that PHE have questions to answer.

    I know you have a bitter take on Boris but you may find that the public enquiries have a lot more to say about the public health bodies and the scientific advisors
    Boris deflecting his responsibility and any blame onto civil servants. 🤷‍♂️
    It will not be Boris heading his own enquiry

    The key on actions taken here will be sage advice and the decisions by Cobra

  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 1,342
    Scott_xP said:
    Maybe one day you'll realize that unrelenting miserabilism is the road to political defeat, and that optimism and self-belief can move mountains.

    But probably not.
  • TGOHF666TGOHF666 Posts: 2,052
    edited May 16
    Will a public enquiry have the nuts to blame the sacred NHS ?

    There will be legions of devout followers chasing themselves to railings.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 14,537
    ydoethur said:

    Jonathan said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Those betting on BoZo's departure date would do well to factor in the timing of the inevitable public inquiry

    I expect any public enquiry will expose PHE as unfit for purpose and will have serious criticism of the NHS as an organisation. Furthermore Sage may well have questions to answer

    It is quite clear listening to Nicola that she has acted exactly as Boris until this last couple of weeks, especially in respect of care homes. She continually repeats she will only follow the advice so it is fair to assume in the Cobra meetings, both Boris and Nicola acted on that advise.

    Boris is reported to have said in the 1922 meeting yesterday that PHE have questions to answer.

    I know you have a bitter take on Boris but you may find that the public enquiries have a lot more to say about the public health bodies and the scientific advisors
    Boris deflecting his responsibility and any blame onto civil servants. 🤷‍♂️
    Silly twat.

    A golden opportunity like this to deflect blame onto an erratic and dishonest chancer with the intellect of a dead stoat, and he takes aim at civil servants instead?
    There should be a market for who Boris will blame or sack to deflect attention from him. Surely in the firing line we have.

    Govt Scientists
    Matt Hancock
    Rishi Sunak



  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 35,323

    Fishing said:

    Foxy said:

    DH is right that the Tory party is pretty swift to defenestrate a leader looking likely to lose an election.

    I have never been a Boris fan. He has always looked the bumbling amateur public school boy who bullshits his way through life.

    It got Blair three election victories, didn't it?

    And being thoughtful oiks got Brown and May precisely nowhere, after some initial successes.

    You could easily make a case that the country likes being led by people who make them feel more optimistic, especially when the circumstances don't justify it. For my money, we've had two leaders like that in the past two decades (Blair and Johnson), and two who clearly weren't (Brown and May). Cameron is somewhere between, hence his mediocre but not disastrous electoral record.
    ?
    Perhaps my antennae aren't as developed as those of the class obsessed English, but to me Blair always gave the impression of suppressing his public school background, appeared anything but bumbling and his adoption of estuarine tones was the opposite of Johnson's Classical pretensions.
    Is that the same Tony Blair that went to public school in... Scotland?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 53,926
    edited May 16
    Scott_xP said:

    kle4 said:

    You expected him to say 'we're in the shit lads'?

    In so far as one might expect the Prime Minister of the day to be a realist, yes.
    Why would you ever assume that? Realists dont often get to lead, politicians like anyone else want someone to give them a positive vision to follow. Sometimes that vision has to have realistic bits in it, tough times ahead etc, but they'll still be all about how they can overcome it.

    And to a degree that makes sense - as long as in action someone is not in denial, theres probably not much to be gained by just staring you're screwed.
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