Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. If you want to get involved, click one of these buttons!

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The government’s approval ratings falls a massive net 45% sinc

SystemSystem Posts: 8,258
edited May 16 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The government’s approval ratings falls a massive net 45% since the start of the lockdown

Not much detail available yet from the Opinium poll for the Observer but what we do have is pretty devastating for the government.

Read the full story here


«134

Comments

  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 34,563
    STAY ALERT

    CONTROL THE TORIES

    SAVE LIVES!
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 2,226
    Sleazy broken tories on the slide.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 4,669
    It's unsurprising. People are depressed by the lockdown, they're worried that it's going to drag on for years, and even those who aren't rabid lefties and venomously set against the Government lack confidence in its ability to dig us out of the hole.

    Perhaps if the economy starts to open up a bit and we don't end up suffering a series of reverses then some confidence will be restored, but right now I'm not expecting anything but more misery. Judging by these numbers I'm sure I'm not alone.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 2,226

    It's unsurprising. People are depressed by the lockdown, they're worried that it's going to drag on for years, and even those who aren't rabid lefties and venomously set against the Government lack confidence in its ability to dig us out of the hole.

    Perhaps if the economy starts to open up a bit and we don't end up suffering a series of reverses then some confidence will be restored, but right now I'm not expecting anything but more misery. Judging by these numbers I'm sure I'm not alone.

    Yeah. We don't know what Keironomics look like, but the economic repair job coming up is going to have nothing tory in the sense of small staty, sound financy, low taxy about it, so nothing ideological is going to separate the parties. It will be about competence, which won't on present showing be great for the tories.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 2,939
    This is a bit 'New Labour lost 5m votes from 1997 to 2010'. It is notable how their approval has slid, but what was it before the rally round the flag surge?
  • eadriceadric Posts: 3,331
    The government has shat the bed on the Rona. This is the first hint of the laundry bill.

    We have the worst death toll in Europe and a populace completely mystified as to what to do. Go in, go out, masks on, masks off, schools in, schools out.

    The only thing the Tories have going for them now is the relative likeability of Boris but that is a dwindling benefit, as he seems impaired.

    If we’re going to be a socialist state we might as well have halfway competent socialists running it.
  • BannedinnParisBannedinnParis Posts: 766
    REMAIN VIGILANT
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 2,226

    REMAIN VIGILANT

    RESTEZ PRUDENTS
  • ukpaulukpaul Posts: 584
    FPT

    ukpaul said:

    ukpaul said:

    ukpaul said:

    ukpaul said:

    ukpaul said:

    DeClare said:

    Everyone is in favour of *safely* reopening the schools but Adonis begs the question.
    People keep saying re-open schools, but they've never been closed, my niece is a teacher and she is there working with the key worker's kids and some of those classed as vulnerable.

    I do wonder if this goes on too long that the fireman's the postman's and the shopworker's kids will all be at Oxford and Cambridge whilst those belonging to the stockbroker, the lawyer and the business executive will all be on the scrapheap.
    Regarding the issues that are behind this, which I referred to on the previous thread. Schools want to be treated the same as other venues where people congregate. If the rule is weaker in schools then schools will not return. The government deliberately singled out schools as needing weaker protection, yet they have produced no evidence that this is science based. If they do, and if schools are treated equally, they will likely return in a greater way before September. If they aren’t, they won’t. This is not radical, it is not anything that reactionaries in the press are claiming. It is a public health issue, as backed up by the British Medical Association.

    That is all.
    "Schools want to be treated the same as other venues where people congregate."

    I think this is a sticking point that eventually is going to have to get bulldozed through.Different venues will end up getting treated differently not because of differences in their risks, but differences in the benefits of reopening them (or more bluntly, the costs of them being closed).

    -----

    But with only a few thousand people likely to be moving around, compared to millions of family reunions, the "weight" (contribution to R) is minimal and the "value" of getting the property market somewhat unstuck is deemed sufficient high (we do want people to be able to move for work, especially key workers, and moves to enable family caring solutions outside care homes may also be desirable).

    You can try to reopen things in a way that reduces their "weight" while only reducing their social value as little as possible, but that only works up to an extent. Face-to-face teaching is something sufficiently valuable that it's an obvious priority to go back in the knapsack and even with a lot of thought going into preventative measures it's going to be a heavy one.

    -----

    Protection for teachers, particularly teachers in higher-risk groups, is a valid issue and something unions are right to flag up.
    If you bulldoze something you end up with wreckage strewn about the place. An apt metaphor!

    Regarding R, a major factor affecting it is the transport to and from places, the 'school run' is given a term for a very good reason, it overwhelms many transport networks. Then school buses, parents/grandparents mixing and so on and you can see the problem.

    This press conference is going off the rails now, by the way, it bears so little relation to reality. Embarrassing to watch.
    I didn't just mean it for schools, I mean it for every setting where people are complaining "we demand to be treated in a logically consistent way with sector X". That kind of objection is one that's not going to be tenable - different settings and sectors are going to end up treated differently. That's just how it has to be.

    Some countries (not just for the COVID pandemic, I mean in general) use the same school building for both a "morning school" and an "afternoon school" so two schools can share the same facilities. I did wonder if we might end up trying something like that, or for non-priority yeargroups running classes only on alternating days.

    The transport issue is an important one for workplaces and other venues too, though it's perhaps most marked for schools. Staggering start-times (one of the government suggestions) e.g. by year-group is only a partial solution as quite frequently two siblings will be in different year groups at the same school. Using grandparents as child transport is also inadvisable at the moment. However, being realistic about the transport issue also suggests there are limits on how overboard you want to go "making schools safe". Can't fit the required number of kids in a room with the seats two metres apart? Well it probably isn't the end of the world, in risk management terms, if you end up with them 1.5 metres apart. Because what's going to happen when they get on the bus and have a chat there?
    It all comes down to how much children of different ages spread the virus. Until that is better understood everything is a guess.

    For adults consenting for themselves that may be okay but we are talking about young people who don't have that agency, so who look to those who care for them (parents at home, teachers at school) to look out for their interests. That is what is happening and it's going to be different for schools because isn't really a factor in most other workplaces.

    When we know the risk we can mitigate the risk. If we don't, then we can't. All of the above is moot until we get to that point.
    I can sympathise with the uncertainty but there's a problem with a perspective of "When we know the risk we can mitigate the risk. If we don't, then we can't. All of the above is moot until we get to that point."

    Uncertainty is part of risk management. The presence of uncertainty does not render risk management impossible. Plenty of risk management professionals would tend to argue that the precautionary principle, despite being many well-meaning people's natural reaction to uncertainty, is not risk management.

    From what we do know, we can be reasonably confident the vast majority of the risk from greater school attendance lies with the more vulnerable people kids could transmit COVID to due to increased between-household transmission, rather than with the children themselves (particularly if medically vulnerable children are told to do schoolwork from home). We can also be reasonably confident, based on existing knowledge about the effect of gaps in education, that children are suffering genuine harm from the current school closures, which means "we don't know what to do so let's do nothing" isn't a morally clear winner.

    I don't think the attitude of leaving society frozen as it is and waiting for THE SCIENCE to come along and inform us of everything we need to do to started again is a goer. Partly because the research isn't going to work like that -if we wait another fortnight or four months we're not going to get a bunch of journal articles come through saying "kids are fine provided they sit 1.53 metres apart" or "teachers are 13% less likely to contract COVID if school lunch breaks are staggered". We will have the advantage of watching other countries open schools first, which will help judge to a degree what the likely effect on R will be here. But only to a degree because different countries are different in many ways (eg size of classrooms, whether kids stay in the same classes all day, how kids get to school) and the R estimates are a tricky business.

    I'm afraid there is going to have to be a lot of learning-by-doing to unwind the lockdown, which is why the approach of bringing in only a few changes at a time and then waiting for a while to see how transmission changes is the only sensible approach.
    You are basically asking teachers to go against everything they have ever been told about their role and (especially since the nineties) about the role of teachers in keeping students safe within the school environment. To try and move from a culture where every risk is avoided to protect children and a system whereby nothing happens until it is safe to do so to one where that goes out of the window is not going to happen overnight. If we are being asked to ditch duty of care and our role in loco parentis, then that needs to be made clear before anything can progress. This does not yet get us to the question of staff safety but it's probably best to iron out the concerns about student's safety first.
    We already have a pretty clear idea that COVID poses very risk of death to young people, particularly those outside the medically vulnerable categories (who presumably are not going to be told to start attending school even when they reopen).

    The lockdown hasn't just saved non-vulnerable kids' lives due to COVID-19 cases prevented, but is has also reduced their deaths and serious illnesses due to reduction in traffic accidents on the way to/from school and by reduction in other infectious diseases that kids pass on to each other, particularly nastier ones like measles and meningitis. Schools have lived with - though somewhat tried to manage - those risks, rather than shuttering up in the face of them. I don't think that counted as abandoning "in loco parentis" either.
    The key point being that such traffic accidents happen outside of school's control. If something like that happens when under the school's care then you may as well kiss goodbye to your career. I believe that school buses may be under either the school's or council's purview regarding duty of care, but my knowledge of the state system in that area isn't up to date. I recall a case where a school were prosecuted because something happened at a public bus stop some metres away from the school!

    Measles has a vaccine and meningitis to some degree, they are both known quantities which have now had evidence based protocols put in place. Unvaccinated children in a school are a problem that needs to be dealt with more firmly, I believe, given how infectious it is. Meningitis tends to be pre-secondary school age, so not specifically my area but is incredibly rare, about 0.00005% even at primary age. I've known one case and that was a teacher. Fine on Friday, dead by Monday. Shocking.

    The government will need to address the issue of these sort of legal requirements of schools in this situation. I don't know what legal advice has been given but I would expect that it has been a focus of negotiations somewhere down the line.
    Re risk of traffic accidents, it's still true that schools try to manage these - particularly by seeking parking restrictions in the neighbourhood of the school, since many accidents arise with kids crossing roads with parked cars. Teachers being assigned "duty" on nearby roads, especially busy ones, and at bus stops aren't rare either. Primary schools often run "walking bus" schemes, partly for fitness and partly for child safety.

    For a lot of these schemes we don't know what percentage change they're reducing risk by, particularly for that particular school and route. We don't have evidence in that fine a detail. But we know enough about the general principles to think they are probably a good idea.

    What schools don't do is say "there's a chance children will be run over if they come to school and we haven't got a road safety engineer to make a specific assessment of local routes, and if kids get here they might catch a nasty cold or bout of flu and this year's particular set of winter nasties have not been studied in great detail yet, so it would breach our duty of standing in loco parentis if we allowed schools to open". A degree of fuzziness is clearly acceptable.
    I'm really not sure what you are saying here. We have protocols around the known risks. We don't on risks that are unknown and do not allow activities to take place if we don't. Everything you mention is known. There can be no fuzziness in the realm of responsibility! If the parents sign a waiver that the school will not be held responsible for anything involving the spread of the virus then there may be a way forward on the student issue at least.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 71,989
    Watching the 1964 general election rerun on BBC Parliament when the Tories under Home lost power after 13 years in government.

    The main swing in the popular vote was from the Tories to the Liberals rather than Labour and Wilson scraped in with a majority of 4.

    If Starmer does get in it will be more 1964 than 1997 in my view
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 34,563
    eadric said:

    The government has shat the bed on the Rona. This is the first hint of the laundry bill.

    We have the worst death toll in Europe and a populace completely mystified as to what to do. Go in, go out, masks on, masks off, schools in, schools out.

    The only thing the Tories have going for them now is the relative likeability of Boris but that is a dwindling benefit, as he seems impaired.

    If we’re going to be a socialist state we might as well have halfway competent socialists running it.

    SOCIALIST DISTANCING!
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 32,966
    HYUFD said:

    Watching the 1964 general election rerun on BBC Parliament when the Tories under Home lost power after 13 years in government.

    The main swing in the popular vote was from the Tories to the Liberals rather than Labour and Wilson scraped in with a majority of 4.

    If Starmer does get in it will be more 1964 than 1997 in my view

    Only if the Liberals get a grip. Judging by that report the other day, they have a way to go.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 32,966
    dr_spyn said:
    Not sure he is as batshit crazy as the replacement might be though.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 3,497
    HYUFD said:

    Watching the 1964 general election rerun on BBC Parliament when the Tories under Home lost power after 13 years in government.

    The main swing in the popular vote was from the Tories to the Liberals rather than Labour and Wilson scraped in with a majority of 4.

    If Starmer does get in it will be more 1964 than 1997 in my view

    There is a long way to go yet. Boris can crash Covid, crash the economy and be back on the up by the time 2024 comes around.

    I don't concur with David Herdson's view. The punters love Boris even if I don't.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 13,729

    HYUFD said:

    Watching the 1964 general election rerun on BBC Parliament when the Tories under Home lost power after 13 years in government.

    The main swing in the popular vote was from the Tories to the Liberals rather than Labour and Wilson scraped in with a majority of 4.

    If Starmer does get in it will be more 1964 than 1997 in my view

    There is a long way to go yet. Boris can crash Covid, crash the economy and be back on the up by the time 2024 comes around.

    I don't concur with David Herdson's view. The punters love Boris even if I don't.
    David's point wasn't about Boris - although I suspect he thinks there's a good chance that Boris will be gone - but that Starmer is poor value for next PM. If Boris makes it to the next election, then David thinks there's a good chance he wins it. Of course, Starmer might do enough to stay on and come to power after the election after next, but that would seem a long to have money tied up for.
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 810
    HYUFD said:

    Watching the 1964 general election rerun on BBC Parliament when the Tories under Home lost power after 13 years in government.

    The main swing in the popular vote was from the Tories to the Liberals rather than Labour and Wilson scraped in with a majority of 4.

    If Starmer does get in it will be more 1964 than 1997 in my view

    It's strange watching a UK election where only 3 parties win seats!
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 30,655
    Amazing how much attention is being paid to one months trade figures in 1964. How things have changed and not for the better.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 348
    eadric said:

    The government has shat the bed on the Rona. This is the first hint of the laundry bill.

    We have the worst death toll in Europe and a populace completely mystified as to what to do. Go in, go out, masks on, masks off, schools in, schools out.

    The only thing the Tories have going for them now is the relative likeability of Boris but that is a dwindling benefit, as he seems impaired.

    If we’re going to be a socialist state we might as well have halfway competent socialists running it.

    The long-term likeability of BoJo is always a bit of a mirage.

    Think of his ex-employers. Max Hastings, in particular, is vitriolic.
    Think of all the lovely blades he has charmed into bed and then dumped.
    There was London 2012, to be fair, but that was up against a fading Ken Livingstone who had already been told to naff off once.

    Boris gets the hit from the chase, seduction and triumph. Not the long-term relationship. And that's before he got the sickness.

    So what do those around him do?
    What does Dom do? He has A Plan. Boris was helpful, but maybe won't be soon.
    What does Rishi do? He doesn't want to be the fag end PM, or LOTO for a decade.
    What does Michael Gove do?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 32,966
    dr_spyn said:
    Will no one think of Shami's state of mind? :smile:
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 3,497
    eadric said:

    The government has shat the bed on the Rona. This is the first hint of the laundry bill.

    We have the worst death toll in Europe and a populace completely mystified as to what to do. Go in, go out, masks on, masks off, schools in, schools out.

    The only thing the Tories have going for them now is the relative likeability of Boris but that is a dwindling benefit, as he seems impaired.

    If we’re going to be a socialist state we might as well have halfway competent socialists running it.

    Boris unlocked England on Sunday because instinctively he is liberally minded. It doesn't seem to have necessarily gone to plan.

    Here in Wales the C1s, C2s and Ds want to lynch Drakeford because we are still in lockdown.

  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 28,541
    Disapproval of the government is the norm.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 32,966
    CatMan said:

    HYUFD said:

    Watching the 1964 general election rerun on BBC Parliament when the Tories under Home lost power after 13 years in government.

    The main swing in the popular vote was from the Tories to the Liberals rather than Labour and Wilson scraped in with a majority of 4.

    If Starmer does get in it will be more 1964 than 1997 in my view

    It's strange watching a UK election where only 3 parties win seats!
    Good old Jo Grimond. My grandmother was a huge fan. A lost age.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 9,697
    edited May 16
    FPT.
    DavidL said:

    ' Meridan goes Labour on a half per cent swing giving Labour an overall majority. Delightfully young Nigel Lawson being interviewed by Robin Day. '

    Election night coverage was far better in those days despite being shown in black and white. Viewers were given every individual result and the relevant swing. For over twenty years it has become too much of a chat show and treated as entertainment. The solemn serious nature of the occasion has rather been lost.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 32,966
    1964. A very young Anthony Howard.

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 81,957
    The last time I saw government approvals collapse like this was during the Gordon Brown's honeymoon back in 2007.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 32,966
    ... and an even younger Nigel Lawson by looks of things.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 81,957
    Does anyone have a link to any scholarly works from the Gordon Brown honeymoon looking at how Labour were going to win the next general election.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 3,497
    tlg86 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Watching the 1964 general election rerun on BBC Parliament when the Tories under Home lost power after 13 years in government.

    The main swing in the popular vote was from the Tories to the Liberals rather than Labour and Wilson scraped in with a majority of 4.

    If Starmer does get in it will be more 1964 than 1997 in my view

    There is a long way to go yet. Boris can crash Covid, crash the economy and be back on the up by the time 2024 comes around.

    I don't concur with David Herdson's view. The punters love Boris even if I don't.
    David's point wasn't about Boris - although I suspect he thinks there's a good chance that Boris will be gone - but that Starmer is poor value for next PM. If Boris makes it to the next election, then David thinks there's a good chance he wins it. Of course, Starmer might do enough to stay on and come to power after the election after next, but that would seem a long to have money tied up for.
    I fully understood David's point. He was suggesting Boris would be defenestrated by the Tories if his popularity waned, and we might see PM Sunak Inna year or two.

    My point is I don't think this will happen, and even if Boris screws up he has plenty of time to come back.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 1,914
    dr_spyn said:
    Indeed.. but it will be a new wolf in wolf's clothing.
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 810

    1964. A very young Anthony Howard.

    And a rather obscure guy called Nigel Lawson. Wonder if anything came of him?
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 9,697
    HYUFD said:

    Watching the 1964 general election rerun on BBC Parliament when the Tories under Home lost power after 13 years in government.

    The main swing in the popular vote was from the Tories to the Liberals rather than Labour and Wilson scraped in with a majority of 4.

    If Starmer does get in it will be more 1964 than 1997 in my view

    There were far more Liberal candidates in 1964 compared with 1959.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 6,760


    Boris unlocked England on Sunday because instinctively he is liberally minded. It doesn't seem to have necessarily gone to plan.

    Here in Wales the C1s, C2s and Ds want to lynch Drakeford because we are still in lockdown.

    I'm not sure the former is true. There are many factors at work - first, we don't wan to ease and then have to lockdown again so we walk down this road just the once.

    Second, Sunak has presumably told him every week we are locked down GDP is falling and the chances of a significant recovery are lessened as jobs will disappear.

    At the same time he is dealing with a frightened people, scared into staying at home for fear of catching this terrible virus and even if it is repeated ad infinitum most people aren't at risk at the end of the day you are betting your life on that being the case and you can understand the innate caution that creates.

    There's a minority however straining at the leash to get out, to get back to work either because they want the freedom to have their life the way it was or because they need the wage from work and they either can't or haven't understood how to apply for furlough money.

    I fear some people have been forced back to work by employers who have told them if they don't return they will be sacked and reminding them there are plenty to take their place.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 32,966

    dr_spyn said:
    Indeed.. but it will be a new wolf in wolf's clothing.
    Laura Pidcock as new momentum boss?
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 1,914
    IshmaelZ said:

    REMAIN VIGILANT

    RESTEZ PRUDENTS
    Isnt it soyez prudent???
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 810
    And the obligatory scenes from Downing Street where anyone can just walk down, although the crowd that is there doesn't look very big considering that!
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 28,123
    eadric said:

    The government has shat the bed on the Rona. This is the first hint of the laundry bill.

    We have the worst death toll in Europe and a populace completely mystified as to what to do. Go in, go out, masks on, masks off, schools in, schools out.

    The only thing the Tories have going for them now is the relative likeability of Boris but that is a dwindling benefit, as he seems impaired.

    If we’re going to be a socialist state we might as well have halfway competent socialists running it.

    I’m intrigued. When and where have you met these ‘halfway competent’ socialists?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 28,123
    Scott_xP said:
    Is it wrong of me to have burst out laughing?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 3,497

    The last time I saw government approvals collapse like this was during the Gordon Brown's honeymoon back in 2007.

    I think it is ok for you Tories, Gordon was no Boris.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 3,162
    Does Covid-19 peak in 60 days and burn itself out in 120?

    Hmm. Maybe.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 81,957
    Scott_xP said:
    What's wrong with that?

    Yorkshire is God's own country, the Garden of Eden was located in the Yorkshire Dales, why wouldn't you want to visit Yorkshire?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 34,563

    Scott_xP said:
    What's wrong with that?

    Yorkshire is God's own country, the Garden of Eden was located in the Yorkshire Dales, why wouldn't you want to visit Yorkshire?
    I thought it was Kerala that's God's own country?

    image
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 2,327

    Does anyone have a link to any scholarly works from the Gordon Brown honeymoon looking at how Labour were going to win the next general election.

    https://www.newstatesman.com/blogs/conference/2007/09/labour-majority-increase
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 28,123
    What do you reckon? A knighthood or a peerage for services to the Conservative party?
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 19,837
    CatMan said:

    1964. A very young Anthony Howard.

    And a rather obscure guy called Nigel Lawson. Wonder if anything came of him?
    Went a bit nutty and turned into an old lady I heard.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 3,497
    stodge said:


    Boris unlocked England on Sunday because instinctively he is liberally minded. It doesn't seem to have necessarily gone to plan.

    Here in Wales the C1s, C2s and Ds want to lynch Drakeford because we are still in lockdown.

    I'm not sure the former is true. There are many factors at work - first, we don't wan to ease and then have to lockdown again so we walk down this road just the once.

    Second, Sunak has presumably told him every week we are locked down GDP is falling and the chances of a significant recovery are lessened as jobs will disappear.

    At the same time he is dealing with a frightened people, scared into staying at home for fear of catching this terrible virus and even if it is repeated ad infinitum most people aren't at risk at the end of the day you are betting your life on that being the case and you can understand the innate caution that creates.

    There's a minority however straining at the leash to get out, to get back to work either because they want the freedom to have their life the way it was or because they need the wage from work and they either can't or haven't understood how to apply for furlough money.

    I fear some people have been forced back to work by employers who have told them if they don't return they will be sacked and reminding them there are plenty to take their place.
    What you have outlined is the stay alert not stay at home message is not popular, which was what I was implying when I said the relaxing of lockdown in England has not gone to plan.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 81,957
    ydoethur said:

    What do you reckon? A knighthood or a peerage for services to the Conservative party?
    Given the number of policies Johnson has nicked from Corbyn I reckon Lansman will replace Dominic Cummings as the PM's top aide.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 802
    Scott_xP said:

    Does anyone have a link to any scholarly works from the Gordon Brown honeymoon looking at how Labour were going to win the next general election.

    https://www.newstatesman.com/blogs/conference/2007/09/labour-majority-increase
    In these darks days, it's always nice to read something that not only raises a smile but makes one laugh out loud.

    An article for the ages.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 28,123
    edited May 16
    Scott_xP said:

    Does anyone have a link to any scholarly works from the Gordon Brown honeymoon looking at how Labour were going to win the next general election.

    https://www.newstatesman.com/blogs/conference/2007/09/labour-majority-increase
    This paragraph is interesting, arguably prescient:

    It’s in the nature of collective hysteria that no single act can be adduced to prove its existence. But there is a fin de siecle, self-destructive, decadent craziness about Conference 2007. Somewhere in the wads of twenty somethings and thirtywouldbes jamming the chintzy Bournemouth bars long after they’re normally silent lurks the jitterbugging desperation of the Twenties before the Crash, Berlin between the wars, London as Imperial Glory died with its queen. The collective psyche of this group of individuals who’ve never had it so good has rarely been so uncertain.

    And much as with the Depression, the division of Berlin and the fading of London, these people knew something somewhere was wrong but firmly believed it would not affect them. @Eadric would doubtless refer to ‘normalcy bias.’

    Sion Simon is the classic example. Having seen himself as a fixer in this new transformation he spoke of, he has been driven out of politics altogether by a series of electoral reverses and poor personal choices. He now works as a director for a small and seedy management consultant-cum-lobbyist, while his ideology is so discredited not only does nobody mention it, but members of his own party still try to blame it for last year’s train wreck.

    Tomorrow did not belong to them, after all.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 3,497

    Scott_xP said:
    What's wrong with that?

    Yorkshire is God's own country, the Garden of Eden was located in the Yorkshire Dales, why wouldn't you want to visit Yorkshire?
    Once he was over Hadrian's wall he would have been on a home run. I wonder how he coped with an over enthusiastic plod North of the Border? Maybe he wore the uniform?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 28,123

    ydoethur said:

    What do you reckon? A knighthood or a peerage for services to the Conservative party?
    Given the number of policies Johnson has nicked from Corbyn I reckon Lansman will replace Dominic Cummings as the PM's top aide.
    Well, he would be an improvement.

    Not many people you could look at compared to old JL and say that, but Cummings is definitely special.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 32,966
    1964. Micheal Barrett. I remember him presenting Nationwide for years.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 30,905
    edited May 16
    DavidL said:

    Amazing how much attention is being paid to one months trade figures in 1964. How things have changed and not for the better.

    In those days, because of Bretton Woods, we were effectively on the Gold Standard. If you ran a trade deficit, your stock of reserves a the Federal Bank of New York would diminish. You couldn't just print money to get yourself out of trouble because you were obliged to maintain a fixed exchange rate to the dollar, which was in turn fixed to gold.

    This created big difficulties for governments.

    But it also stopped governments from running unsustainable policies. If domestic demand ran ahead of domestic production, you needed to stamp down on domestic demand. It was brutal. But it also meant that you couldn't have a situation where you ran a massive deficit for a decade.

    There were few, if any, systematic crises in the Bretton Woods era. Countries, broadly, lived inside their means.

    And Bretton Woods, of course, was a response to the hyper-inflation and competitive devaluations from the pre-war era.

    I wonder, or rather perhaps I should say I suspect, that we have forgotten those lessons. We now think we can print without consequence.

    Edit to add: there's a great chapter in John Brooks' Business Adventures on a Bretton Woods era sterling crisis that's well worth a read.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 28,123
    Fishing said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Does anyone have a link to any scholarly works from the Gordon Brown honeymoon looking at how Labour were going to win the next general election.

    https://www.newstatesman.com/blogs/conference/2007/09/labour-majority-increase
    In these darks days, it's always nice to read something that not only raises a smile but makes one laugh out loud.

    An article for the ages.
    Tony Blair spent much of his earlier leadership inveighing against complacency. By 2004 when he declared he would be PM until 2009, he had fallen prey to it. But it clearly went much wider than him and affected his party too.

    I begin to sense something similar coming from the Tories.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 45,909
    While our tinfoil hat nutters can't muster more than a few dozen, German's always do it better...

    Fury in Germany as thousands join protests across country over lockdown measures and a vaccine plan by Bill Gates

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8325909/Fury-Germany-thousands-expected-protest-country-lockdown-measures.html
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 32,966

    CatMan said:

    1964. A very young Anthony Howard.

    And a rather obscure guy called Nigel Lawson. Wonder if anything came of him?
    Went a bit nutty and turned into an old lady I heard.
    Lives in rural France, shouts at trees that there is no such thing as climate change is the last I heard.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 81,957

    While our tinfoil hat nutters can't muster more than a few dozen, German's always do it better...

    Fury in Germany as thousands join protests across country over lockdown measures and a vaccine plan by Bill Gates

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8325909/Fury-Germany-thousands-expected-protest-country-lockdown-measures.html

    TBF given how shit Windows has been for the last 25 years you can see why people are worried about a vaccine created by Bill Gates.

    Hopefully Tim Cook can sort out a vaccine and the plebs will be fine.

    Windows 3.1 was the last best Windows Operating System wasn't it?

    Depending on my mood I might say Vista.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 45,909
    Isn't SirAlun in the Florida, hence why he is a) in shorts most of the time and b) going out for dinner?
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 4,669
    Presumably administered by injection?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 45,909
    edited May 16

    While our tinfoil hat nutters can't muster more than a few dozen, German's always do it better...

    Fury in Germany as thousands join protests across country over lockdown measures and a vaccine plan by Bill Gates

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8325909/Fury-Germany-thousands-expected-protest-country-lockdown-measures.html

    TBF given how shit Windows has been for the last 25 years you can see why people are worried about a vaccine created by Bill Gates.

    Hopefully Tim Cook can sort out a vaccine and the plebs will be fine.

    Windows 3.1 was the last best Windows Operating System wasn't it?

    Depending on my mood I might say Vista.
    If Apple makes it, you will have to have a new shot every year....at ever increasing cost.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 81,957
    Fishing said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Does anyone have a link to any scholarly works from the Gordon Brown honeymoon looking at how Labour were going to win the next general election.

    https://www.newstatesman.com/blogs/conference/2007/09/labour-majority-increase
    In these darks days, it's always nice to read something that not only raises a smile but makes one laugh out loud.

    An article for the ages.
    One of the PB pieces I'm most proud about is this piece from August 2016 warning people not to underestimate Corbyn at the next election, my piece contains an homage to that Sion Simon piece.

    https://www7.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/08/30/in-praise-of-jeremy-corbyn/
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 6,779
    There is a wider point to this. At least 30000 have died. At least 50000 suspected.
    How many close friends and family does each one have? Quite a few.
    In their grief, some of them will not be shrugging their shoulders and chalking it up as one of those things.
    They will be casting around for a focus of their rage and sadness.
    Frankly, there is only one target. And that target has committed enough mis steps and mixed messages to add to suspicions.
    Now that may not be entirely fair, but it is easier to regain the trust of a voter if they are guilty of causing a recession or starting a war.
    Rather than if they are blamed for the death of Uncle Frank.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 13,729
    dixiedean said:

    There is a wider point to this. At least 30000 have died. At least 50000 suspected.
    How many close friends and family does each one have? Quite a few.
    In their grief, some of them will not be shrugging their shoulders and chalking it up as one of those things.
    They will be casting around for a focus of their rage and sadness.
    Frankly, there is only one target. And that target has committed enough mis steps and mixed messages to add to suspicions.
    Now that may not be entirely fair, but it is easier to regain the trust of a voter if they are guilty of causing a recession or starting a war.
    Rather than if they are blamed for the death of Uncle Frank.

    Plenty will be getting a bereavement dividend.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 28,123

    While our tinfoil hat nutters can't muster more than a few dozen, German's always do it better...

    Fury in Germany as thousands join protests across country over lockdown measures and a vaccine plan by Bill Gates

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8325909/Fury-Germany-thousands-expected-protest-country-lockdown-measures.html

    TBF given how shit Windows has been for the last 25 years you can see why people are worried about a vaccine created by Bill Gates.

    Hopefully Tim Cook can sort out a vaccine and the plebs will be fine.

    Windows 3.1 was the last best Windows Operating System wasn't it?

    Depending on my mood I might say Vista.
    In fairness to Windows, Catalina is a total disaster. It’s pretty well unusable.
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 810
    Now there's some strange guy on called Micahel Foot.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 15,656
    tlg86 said:

    dixiedean said:

    There is a wider point to this. At least 30000 have died. At least 50000 suspected.
    How many close friends and family does each one have? Quite a few.
    In their grief, some of them will not be shrugging their shoulders and chalking it up as one of those things.
    They will be casting around for a focus of their rage and sadness.
    Frankly, there is only one target. And that target has committed enough mis steps and mixed messages to add to suspicions.
    Now that may not be entirely fair, but it is easier to regain the trust of a voter if they are guilty of causing a recession or starting a war.
    Rather than if they are blamed for the death of Uncle Frank.

    Plenty will be getting a bereavement dividend.
    @dixiedean lost his father last week.

    Not a very sensitive remark.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 11,343
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 58
    On topic, I suspect the government's approval rating will continue to fall. Partly because of the crisis, and the slow improvement in death rates - unless I'm mistaken, the number of headline daily deaths reported in the UK for the last week has been second only to the USA on pretty much every day, and most folk now think that the government is no longer having a "good crisis" - they did back in March and early April, and Boris's illness I'm sure improved their ratings.

    But I also think that the government overall is weak, and is increasingly seen to be so. I can go along with Boris being able and charismatic - he is, on his good days - but it's not just about leaders. Day after day at the press conference dull middle-aged men in suits are wheeled out to toe the line, and none of them, with the possible exception of Sunak, show any charisma or natural rapport with the audience. Hancock has been sort of okay most of the time, and Gove is his normal marmite self. But Raab, Williamson, Sharma, Jenrick, Shapps, Eustice, Barclay (QT last night) - all as dull as ditchwater, interchangeable, and singularly unimpressive in answering questions. (At least Rees-Mogg is a bit interesting!) And as for women - Patel has been hopeless and kept away, and no other female minister has featured as far as I know. Are there any other women in leading positions? I'll bet the public coudn't name any of the female cabinet members other than Patel, with the possible exception of Liz Truss, who also seems to be kept away from the stage (understandably). The government feels incredibly male (regardless of the actual composition of the cabinet) and rather stale (after only 6 months in power). So, my argument is that Boris's judgement is to be questioned. He has appointed a pretty poor, very dull, cabinet - a cabinet of few of the talents, rather than all of them. I wonder why?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 6,779
    Foxy said:

    tlg86 said:

    dixiedean said:

    There is a wider point to this. At least 30000 have died. At least 50000 suspected.
    How many close friends and family does each one have? Quite a few.
    In their grief, some of them will not be shrugging their shoulders and chalking it up as one of those things.
    They will be casting around for a focus of their rage and sadness.
    Frankly, there is only one target. And that target has committed enough mis steps and mixed messages to add to suspicions.
    Now that may not be entirely fair, but it is easier to regain the trust of a voter if they are guilty of causing a recession or starting a war.
    Rather than if they are blamed for the death of Uncle Frank.

    Plenty will be getting a bereavement dividend.
    @dixiedean lost his father last week.

    Not a very sensitive remark.
    That's OK. No offence was taken nor meant.
    I don't blame the government at all. But I know a few people who do.
    Once you replicate that across all the excess deaths it starts to add up.
    And it is a difficult impression to shift.
  • Alphabet_SoupAlphabet_Soup Posts: 476
    edited May 16
    rcs1000 said:

    DavidL said:

    Amazing how much attention is being paid to one months trade figures in 1964. How things have changed and not for the better.

    In those days, because of Bretton Woods, we were effectively on the Gold Standard. If you ran a trade deficit, your stock of reserves a the Federal Bank of New York would diminish. You couldn't just print money to get yourself out of trouble because you were obliged to maintain a fixed exchange rate to the dollar, which was in turn fixed to gold.

    This created big difficulties for governments.

    But it also stopped governments from running unsustainable policies. If domestic demand ran ahead of domestic production, you needed to stamp down on domestic demand. It was brutal. But it also meant that you couldn't have a situation where you ran a massive deficit for a decade.

    There were few, if any, systematic crises in the Bretton Woods era. Countries, broadly, lived inside their means.

    And Bretton Woods, of course, was a response to the hyper-inflation and competitive devaluations from the pre-war era.

    I wonder, or rather perhaps I should say I suspect, that we have forgotten those lessons. We now think we can print without consequence.

    Edit to add: there's a great chapter in John Brooks' Business Adventures on a Bretton Woods era sterling crisis that's well worth a read.
    Bretton Woods Hotel is worth a visit next time you're in NH. Even sweaty hikers are welcome to sit on the verandah with a G&T, gaze at Mount Washington and dream of a world carefully managed by far-sighted statesmen.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 2,327

    The current series is the best yet.

    It's too ridiculous.

    None of the characters could actually be real politicians, and the storyline is too absurd to even be funny
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 810
    Who the hell is "Lord" Attlee? (OK I'll stop now)
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 71,989
    Attlee being interviewed on BBC Parliament's 1964 repeat now
  • BantermanBanterman Posts: 277
    Not a surprise with the entire broadcast media trying to destroy their reputation on a constant basis.
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 2,222

    While our tinfoil hat nutters can't muster more than a few dozen, German's always do it better...

    Fury in Germany as thousands join protests across country over lockdown measures and a vaccine plan by Bill Gates

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8325909/Fury-Germany-thousands-expected-protest-country-lockdown-measures.html

    TBF given how shit Windows has been for the last 25 years you can see why people are worried about a vaccine created by Bill Gates.

    Hopefully Tim Cook can sort out a vaccine and the plebs will be fine.

    Windows 3.1 was the last best Windows Operating System wasn't it?

    Depending on my mood I might say Vista.
    If Apple makes it, you will have to have a new shot every year....at ever increasing cost.
    Introducing the iJab. Our thinnest needle ever, 0.001 microns thinner than a regular needle, but costing an extra two thousand dollars.

    You can stick it in your dongle...
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 30,905

    rcs1000 said:

    DavidL said:

    Amazing how much attention is being paid to one months trade figures in 1964. How things have changed and not for the better.

    In those days, because of Bretton Woods, we were effectively on the Gold Standard. If you ran a trade deficit, your stock of reserves a the Federal Bank of New York would diminish. You couldn't just print money to get yourself out of trouble because you were obliged to maintain a fixed exchange rate to the dollar, which was in turn fixed to gold.

    This created big difficulties for governments.

    But it also stopped governments from running unsustainable policies. If domestic demand ran ahead of domestic production, you needed to stamp down on domestic demand. It was brutal. But it also meant that you couldn't have a situation where you ran a massive deficit for a decade.

    There were few, if any, systematic crises in the Bretton Woods era. Countries, broadly, lived inside their means.

    And Bretton Woods, of course, was a response to the hyper-inflation and competitive devaluations from the pre-war era.

    I wonder, or rather perhaps I should say I suspect, that we have forgotten those lessons. We now think we can print without consequence.

    Edit to add: there's a great chapter in John Brooks' Business Adventures on a Bretton Woods era sterling crisis that's well worth a read.
    Breton Woods Hotel is worth a visit next time you're in NH. Even sweaty hikers are welcome to sit on the verandah with a G&T, gaze at Mount Washington and dream of a world carefully managed by far-sighted statesmen.
    I have never been to New Hampshire, I need to add it to my list.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 13,729
    Foxy said:

    tlg86 said:

    dixiedean said:

    There is a wider point to this. At least 30000 have died. At least 50000 suspected.
    How many close friends and family does each one have? Quite a few.
    In their grief, some of them will not be shrugging their shoulders and chalking it up as one of those things.
    They will be casting around for a focus of their rage and sadness.
    Frankly, there is only one target. And that target has committed enough mis steps and mixed messages to add to suspicions.
    Now that may not be entirely fair, but it is easier to regain the trust of a voter if they are guilty of causing a recession or starting a war.
    Rather than if they are blamed for the death of Uncle Frank.

    Plenty will be getting a bereavement dividend.
    @dixiedean lost his father last week.

    Not a very sensitive remark.
    I apologise if I caused any offence, but his post was speculating on the impact of this on the fortunes of the government.

    Personally, I still think the economic fallout and how the government handles that will be a bigger factor.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 5,035
    Evening all. On day 60 I broke out of the Hamster Cage. Cleaned seagul shit off the car, topped up tire pressures, bought my first diesel in 2 months and went shopping and exercising.

    Shopping was in Clitheroe, exercising up near the Tan Hill Inn. A blissful 246 mile trip in the blessed Pennines with fresh air and sunshine and the Pennines and not being inside with my wife and kids and did I mention the Pennines?

    Observations:
    1. The motorways were *quiet*. Positioning run south to come off the M62 near the farmhouse and it was like Easter Sunday morning
    2. Tourist hotspots were *quiet*. Hebden Bridge. Hawes. Nobody there.
    3. A lot of cyclists. I and other drivers were giving them plenty of room
    4. A lot a lot of motorbikists.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 13,729
    dixiedean said:

    Foxy said:

    tlg86 said:

    dixiedean said:

    There is a wider point to this. At least 30000 have died. At least 50000 suspected.
    How many close friends and family does each one have? Quite a few.
    In their grief, some of them will not be shrugging their shoulders and chalking it up as one of those things.
    They will be casting around for a focus of their rage and sadness.
    Frankly, there is only one target. And that target has committed enough mis steps and mixed messages to add to suspicions.
    Now that may not be entirely fair, but it is easier to regain the trust of a voter if they are guilty of causing a recession or starting a war.
    Rather than if they are blamed for the death of Uncle Frank.

    Plenty will be getting a bereavement dividend.
    @dixiedean lost his father last week.

    Not a very sensitive remark.
    That's OK. No offence was taken nor meant.
    I don't blame the government at all. But I know a few people who do.
    Once you replicate that across all the excess deaths it starts to add up.
    And it is a difficult impression to shift.
    I'm sorry for your loss, my comment was only semi serious (I do think if children were dying in substantial numbers, then the government and people would be behaving very differently).

    As for the potential electoral impact from people directly affected by this, I wonder how many of the relatives live in marginal constituencies? I'd suggest perhaps not that many.
  • Alphabet_SoupAlphabet_Soup Posts: 476
    edited May 16
    On topic...

    Those newly disapproving of the government split equally into hawks who think the lockdown is too much and too long, and doves who think it is (and was) too little and too late. The probability that half the population might continue to believe everything is "just right" is the same as the chances of balancing a pencil on its end for 8 weeks. The greater danger is that the government will start factoring "public opinion" into its decision-making, instead of "science".
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 5,532
    edited May 16

    On topic...

    Those newly disapproving of the government divide equally into hawks who think the lockdown is too much and too long, and doves who think it is (and was) too little and too late. The probability that half the population might continue to believe everything is "just right" is the same as the chances of balancing a pencil on its end for 8 weeks. The greater danger is that the government will start factoring "public opinion" into its decision-making, instead of "science".

    I think the internal lockdown was slightly too late but was also too draconian until recently, and that also there should have been a much tougher approach to flights arriving here from abroad. So a complete mixture of mistakes in lots of different directions.
  • sladeslade Posts: 927
    CatMan said:

    HYUFD said:

    Watching the 1964 general election rerun on BBC Parliament when the Tories under Home lost power after 13 years in government.

    The main swing in the popular vote was from the Tories to the Liberals rather than Labour and Wilson scraped in with a majority of 4.

    If Starmer does get in it will be more 1964 than 1997 in my view

    It's strange watching a UK election where only 3 parties win seats!
    I wonder what would have happened if John Pardoe had beaten Margaret Thatcher in Finchley in 1964?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 5,532

    Evening all. On day 60 I broke out of the Hamster Cage. Cleaned seagul shit off the car, topped up tire pressures, bought my first diesel in 2 months and went shopping and exercising.

    Shopping was in Clitheroe, exercising up near the Tan Hill Inn. A blissful 246 mile trip in the blessed Pennines with fresh air and sunshine and the Pennines and not being inside with my wife and kids and did I mention the Pennines?

    Observations:
    1. The motorways were *quiet*. Positioning run south to come off the M62 near the farmhouse and it was like Easter Sunday morning
    2. Tourist hotspots were *quiet*. Hebden Bridge. Hawes. Nobody there.
    3. A lot of cyclists. I and other drivers were giving them plenty of room
    4. A lot a lot of motorbikists.

    The media made a fool of themselves yesterday by predicting huge crowds of tourists all over the country. If nothing else, the weather wasn't right for it. (Not warm enough).
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 2,602
    When finally given the freedom to govern unfettered, the Tories display their supreme incompetence.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 13,729
    LOL! "We interrupt this broadcast to tell you that China has exploded an atomic bomb."
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 81
    It is one thing disapproving of the government's performance, it is another thinking anyone else would have done any better.

    People are simultaneously fed up of lockdown and scared to come out of it.
  • TGOHF666TGOHF666 Posts: 2,052
    Was out playing golf today - course was jam packed full of the residents of Essex breaking free of the lockdown.

    Local parks were rammed too - groups of 2-4 drinking outdoors.

    Lockdown is over.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 71,989
    Sir Alec Douglas Home now being interviewed, last time we had a genuine toff as PM
Sign In or Register to comment.