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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Vice President nominee betting. A market that it is better to

SystemSystem Posts: 8,258
edited May 17 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Vice President nominee betting. A market that it is better to lay than back

Michelle Obama is now 10/1 to be the Democratic Vice Presidential nominee ? pic.twitter.com/hwzAJsPE0t

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  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 32,966
    edited May 17
    First. Like Cortez.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 30,655
    Yes it’s pretty random, largely irrational and has no obvious rules. A market to avoid.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 34,561

    DavidL said:

    Stocky said:

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    tlg86 said:

    Excellent thread @Foxy - I don't envy the task facing those working in the NHS. I would take issue with this:

    Non surgical specialities including mental health will be similarly affected, though these get less media attention.

    You can't turn on the news these days without hearing about mental health. Sure enough, the Sky News presenter Niall Paterson has just said he's starting to suffer and they'll be discussing it on (I think) the Sophy Ridge show.

    Have to say the UK has turned into a bunch of wimps. Everybody seems to be ill and cannot cope with anything nowadays, why does it have top billing in every disorder known to man.
    To be honest Malc we have a close family member suffering from PTSD after rescuing bodies in an earthquake zone. It is not something to dismiss so easily to be honest
    G, I understand people can be really ill with these types of things but why does UK have so high a number for all these ailments and disabilities. It is the saddest , fattest , unhealthiest , most disabled country in the developed world.
    See, when you put it like that you have a really good point.
    That was my point , perhaps not well put the first time.
    A friend of mine has been going on about this & it's really valid. How many obesity-related deaths occur each year in the UK? You don't see a lot of fuss being made about it but his argument is that we should accept coronavirus is around and focus rather on obesity and exercise.

    Crisp tax anyone?
    I doubt that these kinds of sin taxes have the intended effect. They simply make things that taste nice less affordable for poor people.
    Positive nudge is probably cheaper, easier to implement. A Vitality type system for the general population would probably save the NHS money.
    When this is finally over the Department of Health should consider paying for fat people to attend slimming clubs. If we could succeed even in getting a fifth of the obese population down into the overweight category and a tenth of the overweight population down into the healthy range then the benefits would be well worth the expenditure.
    I see your point, but - hmmm - that`s a bit too big brother for me.
    I don't think a gym subsidy is "big brother". However it does risk the perception that by being fat you get a bonus that other people want but have to pay for.
    Go to a french town of say 20,000 people and it will have public sports and leisure facilities equivalent to an English town of 100,000.

    Thats why they get to eat croissants, cheese, four course meals for lunch and still be fitter than us.
    Extra sports and leisure facilities will not help if people will not use them.

    A walk every evening is free and very effective for weight loss.
    I am finding it a pretty close run thing. 2 hours of walking versus way too many snacks whilst at home on lockdown. Weight goes up and down but my daughter is just making blueberry pancakes. This might be an up day.
    I've been surprised just how much a long walk with the dog in the evening helps with weight loss. Gym visits I found didn't help much with weight because you didn't lose much and ate like a pig when you got back.
    Going to the gym is also deeply boring, and a waste of money, when it’s far nicer to exercise outdoors. One of the few good things to emerge from this is people exploring their local areas, by bike or foot. I spoke to lady in Wanstead the other day who had lived there for years, and didn’t know it bordered Epping Forest until now.
    Lol! Parts of Epping Forest are in fact to be found in Wansted - Bush Wood and the little copse off the High Street for example.
    And Wanstead Park itself.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 28,303
    FPT
    CarlottaVance said:

    » show previous quotes
    See my comments on Ireland.

    Yes not a great comparison , only excuse would be lesser concentration of population but a flimsy one. Strange the rates in Inverclyde and Midlothian but both have small population numbers even though similar other areas much lower.
    Other surprise for me is more affluent south Ayrshire being higher than north Ayrshire
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 11,026
    FPT:

    malcolmg said:

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    MattW said:

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    I think they actually mean the UK government "in England":

    Like England they imagine UK = England.
    How’s Contact Tracer hiring going in Scotland?
    I assume it is going well, applications do not close till 22nd , you still have time to apply.
    https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/scottish-news/coronavirus-scotland-despite-8500-people-22039844

    Guernsey has already hired and trained its Contact Tracers - proportionately 50% more than the Scottish Government target.
    So now you know better than the government and scientists on how many tracers they need
    Just making the point that Guernsey has fulfilled 100% of it's target and Scotland 0%. The government's of Guernsey and Scotland face very different challenges - but only one of them hasn't had a new case in 17 days.

    I thought we'd buried that ludicrous comparison the other day.

    I can confirm that Rockall met its quota long before Guernsey.

    Not interested in learning from others? Fair enough.
    Carlotta doesn't really mean that. She would be the first person to whine if the Scottish Government actually did what Guernsey did and imposed a 14 day quarantine on all incomers - including at Lamberton Toll and Gretna Green.
    I've been advocating it for weeks. Although it should be a UK external border.
    Fair enough to the first point, and on the second, if your lot wouldn't allow the Scottish Gmt proper powers, then they can **** well take the blame.
    Instead they call the shots and then claim it is all Scotland/SNP fault, it is pathetic.
    When it comes to Health, testing or PPE it is the Scottish Government's fault.

    Or do you only want to take credit for successes and deflect any blame onto London?
    That a serious question?
  • isamisam Posts: 32,009
    Giving money to people that they don't realise they're going to have to pay back is also good for approval ratings

  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 5,098
    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    MattW said:

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    I think they actually mean the UK government "in England":

    Like England they imagine UK = England.
    How’s Contact Tracer hiring going in Scotland?
    I assume it is going well, applications do not close till 22nd , you still have time to apply.
    https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/scottish-news/coronavirus-scotland-despite-8500-people-22039844

    Guernsey has already hired and trained its Contact Tracers - proportionately 50% more than the Scottish Government target.
    So now you know better than the government and scientists on how many tracers they need
    Just making the point that Guernsey has fulfilled 100% of it's target and Scotland 0%. The government's of Guernsey and Scotland face very different challenges - but only one of them hasn't had a new case in 17 days.

    I thought we'd buried that ludicrous comparison the other day.

    I can confirm that Rockall met its quota long before Guernsey.

    Not interested in learning from others? Fair enough.
    I hardly think we could learn anything from an island with 60K population , only a Tory could imagine something so bizarre. If you had said similar population small countries I could agree wholeheartedly.
    See my comments on Ireland.
    Yes not a great comparison , only excuse would be lesser concentration of population but a flimsy one. Strange the rates in Inverclyde and Midlothian but both have small population numbers even though similar other areas much lower.
    Other surprise for me is more affluent south Ayrshire being higher than north Ayrshire
    Never seen an explanation of Inverclyde and Midlothian - it may just be chance in the distribution of early spreaders, esp. with small populations which means more stochastic fluctuation and founder effect. Midlothian at least would also tend to contain numbers of workers for ERI on those radials outward from SE Edinburgh .
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 5,529
    FPT:

    The total 6 days ago was 152, a drop of 31 on the previous day. This means we could be below 100 a day at the moment.

  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 40,166
    Interesting divergence in the favourability ratings:

    Net Favourable : ABC1 / C2DE
    Johnson: +1 / +16
    Starmer: +16 / -1
    Patel: -41 / -26

    On the other hand:
    Sunak: +37 / +29

    How that fares when he starts asking for it back is another matter.....
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 5,098
    edited May 17
    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    I expect the picture for England is equally (or more) bleak:



    Interesting comparison with Ireland - is the lower infection/higher fatality rate in Scotland a function of lower testing? In other words infections in Scotland understated and fatality rate overstated?
    Like other UK countries we are near the top of the worst countries and it si no coincidence. You can see clearly how well managed independent small countries fare much better than when you are a colony taking orders.
    What orders are you taking on Health, testing or PPE?

    Indeed, you're doing your own research into whether or not you should buy the Roche test "to make sure it's right for Scotland".......
    Carnyx has covered those points.
    Including the apparent evidence of very different reporting of deaths between Scotland and England, and (in previous postings) the persistent udnerstatement of testing figures, both on a dailu basis and in terms of [edit] compartison with the numbers partly inflated by a random shotgun policy down south (at least beforte things settle down). Very frustrating that it's almost impossible to get any decent cxomparison, though that difference in the deaths figures needs to be explained as an a priori anomaly.
  • jayfdeejayfdee Posts: 586
    I went past the testing station at Penrith today, on both occasions ,I saw no-one using them. No cars waiting, no testing being done, nothing.

    Plenty of Hi Vis attendants all looking bored or sat on the grass with their phones.

    Is this normal?
  • stodgestodge Posts: 6,760
    Afternoon all :)

    As the late Kenny Rogers so adroitly opined "you've got to know when to hold 'em, know when to fold 'em".
  • stodgestodge Posts: 6,760
    Andy_JS said:

    FPT:

    The total 6 days ago was 152, a drop of 31 on the previous day. This means we could be below 100 a day at the moment.

    I suspect the next stage of lockdown will be initiated if we go sub 100 deaths a day and sub 1000 new cases per day.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 40,166
    Why did the Guardian think this was clever?

  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 28,303

    FPT:

    malcolmg said:

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    MattW said:

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    I think they actually mean the UK government "in England":

    Like England they imagine UK = England.
    How’s Contact Tracer hiring going in Scotland?
    I assume it is going well, applications do not close till 22nd , you still have time to apply.
    https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/scottish-news/coronavirus-scotland-despite-8500-people-22039844

    Guernsey has already hired and trained its Contact Tracers - proportionately 50% more than the Scottish Government target.
    So now you know better than the government and scientists on how many tracers they need
    Just making the point that Guernsey has fulfilled 100% of it's target and Scotland 0%. The government's of Guernsey and Scotland face very different challenges - but only one of them hasn't had a new case in 17 days.

    I thought we'd buried that ludicrous comparison the other day.

    I can confirm that Rockall met its quota long before Guernsey.

    Not interested in learning from others? Fair enough.
    Carlotta doesn't really mean that. She would be the first person to whine if the Scottish Government actually did what Guernsey did and imposed a 14 day quarantine on all incomers - including at Lamberton Toll and Gretna Green.
    I've been advocating it for weeks. Although it should be a UK external border.
    Fair enough to the first point, and on the second, if your lot wouldn't allow the Scottish Gmt proper powers, then they can **** well take the blame.
    Instead they call the shots and then claim it is all Scotland/SNP fault, it is pathetic.
    When it comes to Health, testing or PPE it is the Scottish Government's fault.

    Or do you only want to take credit for successes and deflect any blame onto London?
    That a serious question?
    What successes have we taken credit for, there are none, it has been a shitshow for Westminster. You see the result if they even threaten to do something different, the bully boys threaten to take away the pocket money, threaten to starve their colony into submission.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 6,760

    Interesting divergence in the favourability ratings:

    Net Favourable : ABC1 / C2DE
    Johnson: +1 / +16
    Starmer: +16 / -1
    Patel: -41 / -26

    On the other hand:
    Sunak: +37 / +29

    How that fares when he starts asking for it back is another matter.....

    Of course - anyone giving out money will be very popular - try it yourself on a street corner and you'll not be surprised at the initial reaction and then see what happens when you tell everyone the money has run out.

    Neither Johnson nor Sunak know what real unpopularity is - it will be making of them or the breaking of them.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 28,303
    Carnyx said:

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    MattW said:

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    I think they actually mean the UK government "in England":

    Like England they imagine UK = England.
    How’s Contact Tracer hiring going in Scotland?
    I assume it is going well, applications do not close till 22nd , you still have time to apply.
    https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/scottish-news/coronavirus-scotland-despite-8500-people-22039844

    Guernsey has already hired and trained its Contact Tracers - proportionately 50% more than the Scottish Government target.
    So now you know better than the government and scientists on how many tracers they need
    Just making the point that Guernsey has fulfilled 100% of it's target and Scotland 0%. The government's of Guernsey and Scotland face very different challenges - but only one of them hasn't had a new case in 17 days.

    I thought we'd buried that ludicrous comparison the other day.

    I can confirm that Rockall met its quota long before Guernsey.

    Not interested in learning from others? Fair enough.
    I hardly think we could learn anything from an island with 60K population , only a Tory could imagine something so bizarre. If you had said similar population small countries I could agree wholeheartedly.
    See my comments on Ireland.
    Yes not a great comparison , only excuse would be lesser concentration of population but a flimsy one. Strange the rates in Inverclyde and Midlothian but both have small population numbers even though similar other areas much lower.
    Other surprise for me is more affluent south Ayrshire being higher than north Ayrshire
    Never seen an explanation of Inverclyde and Midlothian - it may just be chance in the distribution of early spreaders, esp. with small populations which means more stochastic fluctuation and founder effect. Midlothian at least would also tend to contain numbers of workers for ERI on those radials outward from SE Edinburgh .
    Yes a good few areas have so small a population that they cannot possibly give good numbers for comparison. Ayrshire would have been far more sensible with all 3 areas combined. Same for some other areas.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 7,304
    No, I've never heard of her either but she's 55/1 if you want to chance a couple of quid:

    https://www.politico.com/news/2020/05/17/val-demings-joe-biden-vice-president-shortlist-262066
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 45,907
    Labour is drawing up ambitious proposals to rescue the post-coronavirus economy with a radical green recovery plan focused on helping young people who lose their jobs by retraining them in green industries.

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/may/17/labour-to-plan-green-economic-rescue-from-coronavirus-crisis

    Has anybody told them they lost the GE?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 40,166
    I'm not sure how long it will be before the UK is a "low risk" country...

  • RobDRobD Posts: 46,465
    Haven't they heard of social distancing? :D
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 19,837
    Who knew that the fifth horseman would be being fukking nuts?



    'mon the immune system.

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 45,907
    edited May 17
    This is going to be a huge problem for the foreseeable future, especially as hospitals return to normal levels of usage.

    Up to 20% of hospital patients in England got coronavirus while in for another illness

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/17/hospital-patients-england-coronavirus-covid-19
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 32,966

    This is going to be a huge problem for the foreseeable future, especially as hospitals return to normal levels of usage.

    Up to 20% of hospital patients in England got coronavirus while in for another illness

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/17/hospital-patients-england-coronavirus-covid-19

    Blimey.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 28,303

    Who knew that the fifth horseman would be being fukking nuts?



    'mon the immune system.

    What can one say
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 32,966

    Labour is drawing up ambitious proposals to rescue the post-coronavirus economy with a radical green recovery plan focused on helping young people who lose their jobs by retraining them in green industries.

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/may/17/labour-to-plan-green-economic-rescue-from-coronavirus-crisis

    Has anybody told them they lost the GE?

    By 2024 we could well be is so much economic shit that Starmer will win a landslide.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 4,230
    edited May 17

    Who knew that the fifth horseman would be being fukking nuts?



    'mon the immune system.

    The "dirt boosts the immune system" bollocks is persistent as anti-vax. And just as stupid.

    Every time I see a Guardian (type) journalist sneering at the "middle class" idea of washing every day, I feel like misquoting Abe Lincoln, and wishing that cholera be visited upon them.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 32,966

    No, I've never heard of her either but she's 55/1 if you want to chance a couple of quid:

    https://www.politico.com/news/2020/05/17/val-demings-joe-biden-vice-president-shortlist-262066

    Me like. Thanks. Worth the price of a pint.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 4,230
    malcolmg said:

    Who knew that the fifth horseman would be being fukking nuts?



    'mon the immune system.

    What can one say
    One can definitely say - Thank God for gun control.

    In America, they would have SIG516s with rails covered in all the crap and an optical sight attached backwards.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 45,907
    Just wondering, Jon Lansman stepping down from Maomentum, but he still owns all the data right?
  • eekeek Posts: 7,832
    The risk of spending more than 10 minutes in a room with infected people appears to be far higher than spending 10 minutes outside with the same people.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 11,026

    This is going to be a huge problem for the foreseeable future, especially as hospitals return to normal levels of usage.

    Up to 20% of hospital patients in England got coronavirus while in for another illness

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/17/hospital-patients-england-coronavirus-covid-19

    Blimey.
    As I said, we should have coronavirus hospitals. It's a no brainer.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 32,966


    Demings.

    "I come before you tonight as an American Dream realised."
  • NorthofStokeNorthofStoke Posts: 684

    Labour is drawing up ambitious proposals to rescue the post-coronavirus economy with a radical green recovery plan focused on helping young people who lose their jobs by retraining them in green industries.

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/may/17/labour-to-plan-green-economic-rescue-from-coronavirus-crisis

    Has anybody told them they lost the GE?

    Recovery plan, yes. Good ideas are welcome. Unfortunately radical and green are likely to be synonyms for total BS that would finish off the economy given the ideologies dominant in the LP at present.
  • isamisam Posts: 32,009

    Interesting divergence in the favourability ratings:

    Net Favourable : ABC1 / C2DE
    Johnson: +1 / +16
    Starmer: +16 / -1
    Patel: -41 / -26

    On the other hand:
    Sunak: +37 / +29

    How that fares when he starts asking for it back is another matter.....

    Brexit splits for the leaders
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 3,197

    No, I've never heard of her either but she's 55/1 if you want to chance a couple of quid:

    https://www.politico.com/news/2020/05/17/val-demings-joe-biden-vice-president-shortlist-262066

    Good luck. I'll be kicking myself if she is selected because I looked at her a couple of weeks ago, and decided against. She scores highly on American Dream (poverty to Washington) as well as ex officio Black Struggle but as a former police chief she might run into the same sort of problems as Kamala Harris did.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 2,327
    I wonder how many letters Brady has?

  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 1,914

    Who knew that the fifth horseman would be being fukking nuts?



    'mon the immune system.

    The "dirt boosts the immune system" bollocks is persistent as anti-vax. And just as stupid.

    Every time I see a Guardian (type) journalist sneering at the "middle class" idea of washing every day, I feel like misquoting Abe Lincoln, and wishing that cholera be visited upon them.
    I thought there was some truth to it. When I was a child I had innumerable cuts and bruises, all dealt with my loving loving mother with witch hazel iirc. I was led to believe (possibly incorrectly) that the profusion of people who suffered allergies was a direct result of being too mollycoddled and washed inTCP 3 times a day ;)
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 32,966
    Scott_xP said:

    I wonder how many letters Brady has?

    Nah, the backbenchers will soon be wetting themselves with glee over the No Deal crash out, so he's safe.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 2,327

    I thought there was some truth to it. When I was a child I had innumerable cuts and bruises, all dealt with my loving loving mother with witch hazel iirc. I was led to believe (possibly incorrectly) that the profusion of people who suffered allergies was a direct result of being too mollycoddled and washed inTCP 3 times a day ;)

    Surely it is true that you can only develop antibodies if you have been exposed to a pathogen, but that doesn't mean you shouldn't take precautions against ingesting some of them
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 3,197

    No, I've never heard of her either but she's 55/1 if you want to chance a couple of quid:

    https://www.politico.com/news/2020/05/17/val-demings-joe-biden-vice-president-shortlist-262066

    Good luck. I'll be kicking myself if she is selected because I looked at her a couple of weeks ago, and decided against. She scores highly on American Dream (poverty to Washington) as well as ex officio Black Struggle but as a former police chief she might run into the same sort of problems as Kamala Harris did.
    When I did look, there did not seem to be much of a buzz for her. I do not know if Politico is doing anything differently from OGH and just running through each of the possibles in turn on slow news days.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 16,930

    Labour is drawing up ambitious proposals to rescue the post-coronavirus economy with a radical green recovery plan focused on helping young people who lose their jobs by retraining them in green industries.

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/may/17/labour-to-plan-green-economic-rescue-from-coronavirus-crisis

    Has anybody told them they lost the GE?

    Apparently the government would train people to plant trees and insulate buildings.

    And this will allow the country to continue to live beyond its means.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 3,197
    OT fish and chip shop run -- more cars about today; same number of people in the park but doing different things.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 45,907

    Labour is drawing up ambitious proposals to rescue the post-coronavirus economy with a radical green recovery plan focused on helping young people who lose their jobs by retraining them in green industries.

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/may/17/labour-to-plan-green-economic-rescue-from-coronavirus-crisis

    Has anybody told them they lost the GE?

    Apparently the government would train people to plant trees and insulate buildings.

    And this will allow the country to continue to live beyond its means.
    The return of the army of loft laggers....
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 4,230

    No, I've never heard of her either but she's 55/1 if you want to chance a couple of quid:

    https://www.politico.com/news/2020/05/17/val-demings-joe-biden-vice-president-shortlist-262066

    Good luck. I'll be kicking myself if she is selected because I looked at her a couple of weeks ago, and decided against. She scores highly on American Dream (poverty to Washington) as well as ex officio Black Struggle but as a former police chief she might run into the same sort of problems as Kamala Harris did.
    When I did look, there did not seem to be much of a buzz for her. I do not know if Politico is doing anything differently from OGH and just running through each of the possibles in turn on slow news days.
    https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2015/09/orlando-police-complaints-in-the-spotlight-as-african-american-ex-chief-runs-for-congress/443526/

    Sounds as if she is relatively OK on the police issue. Kamala Harris has specific cases against her.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 3,197

    Labour is drawing up ambitious proposals to rescue the post-coronavirus economy with a radical green recovery plan focused on helping young people who lose their jobs by retraining them in green industries.

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/may/17/labour-to-plan-green-economic-rescue-from-coronavirus-crisis

    Has anybody told them they lost the GE?

    Apparently the government would train people to plant trees and insulate buildings.

    And this will allow the country to continue to live beyond its means.
    The return of the army of loft laggers....
    The American Democrats have been talking about a Green New Deal for years. Is this just Labour nicking the idea or is there original thinking (asks someone too damn idle to do his own research)?
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 14,447

    Interesting divergence in the favourability ratings:

    Net Favourable : ABC1 / C2DE
    Johnson: +1 / +16
    Starmer: +16 / -1
    Patel: -41 / -26

    On the other hand:
    Sunak: +37 / +29

    How that fares when he starts asking for it back is another matter.....

    Yes, those are really interesting. Boris srill has his new red wall supporters, but he's mislaid many of the others. Keir impresses the middle classes, but not yet others. Surprised so many people have a strong opinion about Patel one way or the other.

    On the more important Covid data, they really are starting to look quite encouraging.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 4,230

    Who knew that the fifth horseman would be being fukking nuts?



    'mon the immune system.

    The "dirt boosts the immune system" bollocks is persistent as anti-vax. And just as stupid.

    Every time I see a Guardian (type) journalist sneering at the "middle class" idea of washing every day, I feel like misquoting Abe Lincoln, and wishing that cholera be visited upon them.
    I thought there was some truth to it. When I was a child I had innumerable cuts and bruises, all dealt with my loving loving mother with witch hazel iirc. I was led to believe (possibly incorrectly) that the profusion of people who suffered allergies was a direct result of being too mollycoddled and washed inTCP 3 times a day ;)
    The science says otherwise. Among other things, people from countries where their molly coddling doesn't happen are usually much sicker on an on-going basis than those from developed countries. Allergies are just lived (or died) with.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 16,930
    eek said:

    The risk of spending more than 10 minutes in a room with infected people appears to be far higher than spending 10 minutes outside with the same people.
    At a football game you're spending 90+ minutes sitting next to people which though outdoors is still undercover and with people shouting, singing etc.

    Plus the time you spend before and after inside the stand, at pubs, on public transport etc.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 4,230
    On the COVID19 reported information - ironically, because of crap reporting so far, how many don't know about the lag in reported numbers vs infections?
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 7,304

    eek said:

    The risk of spending more than 10 minutes in a room with infected people appears to be far higher than spending 10 minutes outside with the same people.
    At a football game you're spending 90+ minutes sitting next to people which though outdoors is still undercover and with people shouting, singing etc.

    Plus the time you spend before and after inside the stand, at pubs, on public transport etc.
    Social distancing has never been a problem at the Orient.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 40,166
    isam said:

    Interesting divergence in the favourability ratings:

    Net Favourable : ABC1 / C2DE
    Johnson: +1 / +16
    Starmer: +16 / -1
    Patel: -41 / -26

    On the other hand:
    Sunak: +37 / +29

    How that fares when he starts asking for it back is another matter.....

    Brexit splits for the leaders
    The Brexit splits are much more pronounced

    Net Favourable : Remain / Leave
    Johnson: -33 / +56
    Starmer: +40 / -18
    Patel: -62 / -11

    On the other hand:
    Sunak: +23 / +55
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 16,930

    On the COVID19 reported information - ironically, because of crap reporting so far, how many don't know about the lag in reported numbers vs infections?

    Many people struggle with numbers generally.

    So more complications will go above their heads.
  • isamisam Posts: 32,009
    edited May 17

    Why did the Guardian think this was clever?

    James O'Brien says he doesn't think he meant it, but taking the mick out of foreign sounding names is fair game anyway, whats the fuss?

  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 1,914

    eek said:

    The risk of spending more than 10 minutes in a room with infected people appears to be far higher than spending 10 minutes outside with the same people.
    At a football game you're spending 90+ minutes sitting next to people which though outdoors is still undercover and with people shouting, singing etc.

    Plus the time you spend before and after inside the stand, at pubs, on public transport etc.
    Social distancing has never been a problem at the Orient.
    Its the social disinterest that's the problem...
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 13,729

    This is going to be a huge problem for the foreseeable future, especially as hospitals return to normal levels of usage.

    Up to 20% of hospital patients in England got coronavirus while in for another illness

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/17/hospital-patients-england-coronavirus-covid-19

    That headline is a bit naughty. It’s 20% of COVID-19 patients in hospital rather than 20% of all hospital patients.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 1,914

    OT fish and chip shop run -- more cars about today; same number of people in the park but doing different things.

    Fish and chip shop run fri night. No one was paying real attention to social distancing. I will not be doing that again.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 14,461
    edited May 17


    That's exactly the same time period incase it wasn't clear.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 7,304

    No, I've never heard of her either but she's 55/1 if you want to chance a couple of quid:

    https://www.politico.com/news/2020/05/17/val-demings-joe-biden-vice-president-shortlist-262066

    Good luck. I'll be kicking myself if she is selected because I looked at her a couple of weeks ago, and decided against. She scores highly on American Dream (poverty to Washington) as well as ex officio Black Struggle but as a former police chief she might run into the same sort of problems as Kamala Harris did.
    When I did look, there did not seem to be much of a buzz for her. I do not know if Politico is doing anything differently from OGH and just running through each of the possibles in turn on slow news days.
    The 'form' is worthless in this type of market. Laying at short prices is the best strategy but no way to make a killing.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 4,230

    On the COVID19 reported information - ironically, because of crap reporting so far, how many don't know about the lag in reported numbers vs infections?

    Many people struggle with numbers generally.

    So more complications will go above their heads.
    It will be very complicated to sustain the narrative some people want if the numbers insist on heading south.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 34,452
    Obama is perhaps the only person who could persuade Biden that if he is the candidate, he will lose to Trump.

    Obama is perhaps the only person who could persuade Michelle to run.
  • isamisam Posts: 32,009
    edited May 17
    Alistair said:



    That's exactly the same time period incase it wasn't clear.
    This one says it's on a plateau (three days ago mind)

  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 40,166
    eek said:

    The risk of spending more than 10 minutes in a room with infected people appears to be far higher than spending 10 minutes outside with the same people.

    Yes, but 90 minutes with people cheering and shouting may not be non-trivial. Did anyone ever find that "Cheltenham Races Hotspot"? Goodness knows there must have been enough people looking for it....
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 1,572
    edited May 17

    This is going to be a huge problem for the foreseeable future, especially as hospitals return to normal levels of usage.

    Up to 20% of hospital patients in England got coronavirus while in for another illness

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/17/hospital-patients-england-coronavirus-covid-19

    Blimey.
    As I said, we should have coronavirus hospitals. It's a no brainer.
    Anecdotally it has always seemed true that the best way to get ill is to go to hospital, especially in winter when ward after ward of ill people would be closed to everyone apart from patients because of the outbreak of some devastating scourge. Chap I knew now long dead went in for knee surgery and came out minus one testicle because of a hospital acquired infection. Put me off being ill quite a bit. Multiply that by a few million and I think you have a problem. The media give loads of coverage to great treatment at St Thomas's, UCH, Barts, Brompton, GOS etc, and slightly less to minor and unglamorous provincial places where some ungreat stuff happens.

  • tysontyson Posts: 5,976

    This is going to be a huge problem for the foreseeable future, especially as hospitals return to normal levels of usage.

    Up to 20% of hospital patients in England got coronavirus while in for another illness

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/17/hospital-patients-england-coronavirus-covid-19

    Blimey.
    As I said, we should have coronavirus hospitals. It's a no brainer.
    Isn't that what the Nightingales are for?
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 7,304

    eek said:

    The risk of spending more than 10 minutes in a room with infected people appears to be far higher than spending 10 minutes outside with the same people.
    At a football game you're spending 90+ minutes sitting next to people which though outdoors is still undercover and with people shouting, singing etc.

    Plus the time you spend before and after inside the stand, at pubs, on public transport etc.
    Social distancing has never been a problem at the Orient.
    Its the social disinterest that's the problem...
    Last time I went I phoned to see when the match was due to start. They asked me what time I could make it.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 40,166
    edited May 17
    isam said:

    Why did the Guardian think this was clever?

    James O'Brien says he doesn't think he meant it, but taking the mick out of foreign sounding names is fair game anyway, whats the fuss?


  • glwglw Posts: 6,268

    On the COVID19 reported information - ironically, because of crap reporting so far, how many don't know about the lag in reported numbers vs infections?

    Judging from what I heard on the radio this morning I would estimate that 75% of teachers and others involved in education are unaware. I kept thinking "that's from weeks ago, what matters is what's happening in early June".
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 3,197

    No, I've never heard of her either but she's 55/1 if you want to chance a couple of quid:

    https://www.politico.com/news/2020/05/17/val-demings-joe-biden-vice-president-shortlist-262066

    Good luck. I'll be kicking myself if she is selected because I looked at her a couple of weeks ago, and decided against. She scores highly on American Dream (poverty to Washington) as well as ex officio Black Struggle but as a former police chief she might run into the same sort of problems as Kamala Harris did.
    When I did look, there did not seem to be much of a buzz for her. I do not know if Politico is doing anything differently from OGH and just running through each of the possibles in turn on slow news days.
    The 'form' is worthless in this type of market. Laying at short prices is the best strategy but no way to make a killing.
    Yes, as TSE implies in the header, when the nominee is announced, probably most of us will ask who? Unless it really is Michelle Obama. ;)
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 2,226

    Who knew that the fifth horseman would be being fukking nuts?



    'mon the immune system.

    The "dirt boosts the immune system" bollocks is persistent as anti-vax. And just as stupid.

    Every time I see a Guardian (type) journalist sneering at the "middle class" idea of washing every day, I feel like misquoting Abe Lincoln, and wishing that cholera be visited upon them.
    I thought there was some truth to it. When I was a child I had innumerable cuts and bruises, all dealt with my loving loving mother with witch hazel iirc. I was led to believe (possibly incorrectly) that the profusion of people who suffered allergies was a direct result of being too mollycoddled and washed inTCP 3 times a day ;)
    The science says otherwise. Among other things, people from countries where their molly coddling doesn't happen are usually much sicker on an on-going basis than those from developed countries. Allergies are just lived (or died) with.
    Thank goodness there are no confounders to be sorted out if we are going to settle this on a rich country vs poor country comparison. The hygiene hypothesis is perfectly serious science (as in, discussed by proper scientists in proper journals) whether it is true or not. And one should always be wary of appeals to "*the* science".
  • EPGEPG Posts: 3,424
    Alistair said:



    That's exactly the same time period incase it wasn't clear.
    Yet the shagger models told us that Sweden should be on an exponential upward curve right now, and the UK is doing a lot worse. So it seems like this is a wilful attempt to mislead / participate in Project Middle Class WFH.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,766

    On the COVID19 reported information - ironically, because of crap reporting so far, how many don't know about the lag in reported numbers vs infections?

    My guess is 90%. The headline numbers are the ones that get the attention.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 81,957

    No, I've never heard of her either but she's 55/1 if you want to chance a couple of quid:

    https://www.politico.com/news/2020/05/17/val-demings-joe-biden-vice-president-shortlist-262066

    Good luck. I'll be kicking myself if she is selected because I looked at her a couple of weeks ago, and decided against. She scores highly on American Dream (poverty to Washington) as well as ex officio Black Struggle but as a former police chief she might run into the same sort of problems as Kamala Harris did.
    When I did look, there did not seem to be much of a buzz for her. I do not know if Politico is doing anything differently from OGH and just running through each of the possibles in turn on slow news days.
    The 'form' is worthless in this type of market. Laying at short prices is the best strategy but no way to make a killing.
    Yes, as TSE implies in the header, when the nominee is announced, probably most of us will ask who? Unless it really is Michelle Obama. ;)
    I'll be crying like a disgraced televangelist if Biden picks Michelle Obama.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 10,385

    Labour is drawing up ambitious proposals to rescue the post-coronavirus economy with a radical green recovery plan focused on helping young people who lose their jobs by retraining them in green industries.

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/may/17/labour-to-plan-green-economic-rescue-from-coronavirus-crisis

    Has anybody told them they lost the GE?

    The Tories these days don't tend to have ideas - so the burden falls upon others.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 4,669
    tyson said:

    This is going to be a huge problem for the foreseeable future, especially as hospitals return to normal levels of usage.

    Up to 20% of hospital patients in England got coronavirus while in for another illness

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/17/hospital-patients-england-coronavirus-covid-19

    Blimey.
    As I said, we should have coronavirus hospitals. It's a no brainer.
    Isn't that what the Nightingales are for?
    Not as I understand it. Nightingale hospitals are facilities for unconscious patients on ventilators. I'm assuming that less sick patients need other facilities (e.g. lots of loos, catering) that Nightingales aren't set up to provide. But I might be wrong about that.

    If I'm correct then the only way the NHS is going to properly segregate the remaining Covid-19 cases, as the total number of patients falls, is to designate a certain number of hospitals to look after them and keep them away from others. The establishment of Covid-free hospitals might help to encourage more frightened patients to turn up for their appointments.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 5,098

    isam said:

    Why did the Guardian think this was clever?

    James O'Brien says he doesn't think he meant it, but taking the mick out of foreign sounding names is fair game anyway, whats the fuss?


    I thought it was one of those English names actually!

    FPT by the way - you never did explain who King John was/is please ...?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 14,461
    isam said:

    Alistair said:



    That's exactly the same time period incase it wasn't clear.
    This one says it's on a plateau (three days ago mind)

    Yes, leading indicators (new ICU cases, current ICU cases) suggests deaths should start heading down again soon.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 2,226

    isam said:

    Why did the Guardian think this was clever?

    James O'Brien says he doesn't think he meant it, but taking the mick out of foreign sounding names is fair game anyway, whats the fuss?


    Golly. I am all for pointing at lefty anti-semites and laughing, but I haven't seen a weaker claim than this. It is a completely pathetic "Foreign names are hilarious, especially when they accidentally contain proper English words" gag, but who knew Tugendhat was a Jewish name, if it is?
  • MattWMattW Posts: 3,428
    Clippers ordered.

    Time for the lockdown Showaddywaddy look to go...
  • MattWMattW Posts: 3,428

    Labour is drawing up ambitious proposals to rescue the post-coronavirus economy with a radical green recovery plan focused on helping young people who lose their jobs by retraining them in green industries.

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/may/17/labour-to-plan-green-economic-rescue-from-coronavirus-crisis

    Has anybody told them they lost the GE?

    Recovery plan, yes. Good ideas are welcome. Unfortunately radical and green are likely to be synonyms for total BS that would finish off the economy given the ideologies dominant in the LP at present.
    Isn't much of this just the gibberish from Richard Murphy warmed-over a little?
  • isamisam Posts: 32,009
    edited May 17
    IshmaelZ said:

    isam said:

    Why did the Guardian think this was clever?

    James O'Brien says he doesn't think he meant it, but taking the mick out of foreign sounding names is fair game anyway, whats the fuss?


    Golly. I am all for pointing at lefty anti-semites and laughing, but I haven't seen a weaker claim than this. It is a completely pathetic "Foreign names are hilarious, especially when they accidentally contain proper English words" gag, but who knew Tugendhat was a Jewish name, if it is?
    The point is that if it were in a right wing paper and the butt of the joke were a left winger's foreign sounding name, I think O'Brien would be up in arms.

    We frequently see such double standards on here.

    I was told that Boris "literally just said" 'People of Colour', in a sentence that confirmed his White Supremacism, by someone who is now warning Tory MPs to expect to be done for libelling Keir Starmer because they fell for fake news the same as he did!
  • MattWMattW Posts: 3,428
    tlg86 said:

    This is going to be a huge problem for the foreseeable future, especially as hospitals return to normal levels of usage.

    Up to 20% of hospital patients in England got coronavirus while in for another illness

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/17/hospital-patients-england-coronavirus-covid-19

    That headline is a bit naughty. It’s 20% of COVID-19 patients in hospital rather than 20% of all hospital patients.
    A headline from the Guardian which consists of a lie?

    It must be a day with D in it.

    (Forgive my contempt; they deserve it.)
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 28,118
    MattW said:

    Clippers ordered.

    Time for the lockdown Showaddywaddy look to go...

    When I get to that stage, I rather think I am going to follow the advice of @AlistairM and take the whole lot off, including the no longer convincing combover.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 4,230
    MattW said:

    Labour is drawing up ambitious proposals to rescue the post-coronavirus economy with a radical green recovery plan focused on helping young people who lose their jobs by retraining them in green industries.

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/may/17/labour-to-plan-green-economic-rescue-from-coronavirus-crisis

    Has anybody told them they lost the GE?

    Recovery plan, yes. Good ideas are welcome. Unfortunately radical and green are likely to be synonyms for total BS that would finish off the economy given the ideologies dominant in the LP at present.
    Isn't much of this just the gibberish from Richard Murphy warmed-over a little?
    IshmaelZ said:

    isam said:

    Why did the Guardian think this was clever?

    James O'Brien says he doesn't think he meant it, but taking the mick out of foreign sounding names is fair game anyway, whats the fuss?


    Golly. I am all for pointing at lefty anti-semites and laughing, but I haven't seen a weaker claim than this. It is a completely pathetic "Foreign names are hilarious, especially when they accidentally contain proper English words" gag, but who knew Tugendhat was a Jewish name, if it is?
    Imagine that someone wrote an article in the Daily Mail, using the comic possibilities of the name of (say) a Muslim advisor to Lord Keith Starmer?

    I always find it a reasonable measure to rotate such things through a sequence of alternates (replace religions, political allegiance etc etc) - if it causes offence in one case, it should cause offence in all.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 14,461
    EPG said:

    Alistair said:



    That's exactly the same time period incase it wasn't clear.
    Yet the shagger models told us that Sweden should be on an exponential upward curve right now, and the UK is doing a lot worse. So it seems like this is a wilful attempt to mislead / participate in Project Middle Class WFH.
    UK deaths are falling rapidly.

    Sweden's cases are not.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 3,162
    I wouldn’t have known that Tugendhat was a Jewish name TBH. Do most people?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 3,162
    EPG said:

    Alistair said:



    That's exactly the same time period incase it wasn't clear.
    Yet the shagger models told us that Sweden should be on an exponential upward curve right now, and the UK is doing a lot worse. So it seems like this is a wilful attempt to mislead / participate in Project Middle Class WFH.
    I have now read this post thrice and still don’t understand it!!
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 13,729

    I wouldn’t have known that Tugendhat was a Jewish name TBH. Do most people?

    And more to the point, would Lee would have done anything differently if he had known? My biggest problem with Lee is that he stopped being funny many years ago.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 3,162
    Looks like the virus might be burning itself out.

    I know that sounds stupidly optimistic, but the data we have seems to show that...
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 4,669
    FWIW, the news from the Govt briefing (which I'm watching a few minutes behind) is that the Oxford vaccine group have signed a global licencing agreement with AstraZeneca and are ramping up another couple of gears on production.

    Basically if they get it right and this thing works then they think they'll have enough doses to vaccinated 30m people in Britain by September. That would be more than sufficient to over the whole NHS, the teachers, the shielded group and all the pensioners, which would effectively finish this damned thing off.

    I'm filing this news in the "too good to be true" drawer - but it would be nice to think that it could just happen... I've had a very nice afternoon out (the weather is beautiful today) so I'm feeling a bit less shit than I did this morning. So, we shall see.
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,412
    EPG said:

    Alistair said:



    That's exactly the same time period incase it wasn't clear.
    Yet the shagger models told us that Sweden should be on an exponential upward curve right now, and the UK is doing a lot worse. So it seems like this is a wilful attempt to mislead / participate in Project Middle Class WFH.
    Given population density why would you compare Sweden with the UK rather than Denmark or Norway? :neutral:
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 15,656
    IshmaelZ said:

    isam said:

    Why did the Guardian think this was clever?

    James O'Brien says he doesn't think he meant it, but taking the mick out of foreign sounding names is fair game anyway, whats the fuss?


    Golly. I am all for pointing at lefty anti-semites and laughing, but I haven't seen a weaker claim than this. It is a completely pathetic "Foreign names are hilarious, especially when they accidentally contain proper English words" gag, but who knew Tugendhat was a Jewish name, if it is?
    Tugendhat is a pretty rare name everywhere. 162 in the world, 44 of whom are in Ecuador. France has 18 so the most common in Europe. 11 in the UK.

    https://forebears.io/surnames/tugendhat

  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 2,226

    MattW said:

    Labour is drawing up ambitious proposals to rescue the post-coronavirus economy with a radical green recovery plan focused on helping young people who lose their jobs by retraining them in green industries.

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/may/17/labour-to-plan-green-economic-rescue-from-coronavirus-crisis

    Has anybody told them they lost the GE?

    Recovery plan, yes. Good ideas are welcome. Unfortunately radical and green are likely to be synonyms for total BS that would finish off the economy given the ideologies dominant in the LP at present.
    Isn't much of this just the gibberish from Richard Murphy warmed-over a little?
    IshmaelZ said:

    isam said:

    Why did the Guardian think this was clever?

    James O'Brien says he doesn't think he meant it, but taking the mick out of foreign sounding names is fair game anyway, whats the fuss?


    Golly. I am all for pointing at lefty anti-semites and laughing, but I haven't seen a weaker claim than this. It is a completely pathetic "Foreign names are hilarious, especially when they accidentally contain proper English words" gag, but who knew Tugendhat was a Jewish name, if it is?
    Imagine that someone wrote an article in the Daily Mail, using the comic possibilities of the name of (say) a Muslim advisor to Lord Keith Starmer?

    I always find it a reasonable measure to rotate such things through a sequence of alternates (replace religions, political allegiance etc etc) - if it causes offence in one case, it should cause offence in all.
    Mustapha Kunt is the paradigm example, and again there is nothing inherently anti muslim in the joke. Mainstream muslim names are problematic because they all seem to be named after the Prophet pbuh and ridiculing the name is probably tantamount to ridiculing the Prophet and therefore a suicide bombing offence. But if you asked me where the name Tugendhat came from, I'd probably say Scandinavia or the Low Countries.
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