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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Jo Biden’s VP pick – why we shouldn’t rule out Elizabeth Warre

SystemSystem Posts: 8,258
edited May 18 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Jo Biden’s VP pick – why we shouldn’t rule out Elizabeth Warren

In recent weeks the Senator from Massachusetts, Elizabeth Warren, has appeared to be falling back in the race to become the vice presidential nominee for the Democrats at the White House election in November. In the betting she’s now dropped to third favourite behind Harris and Klobuchar.

Read the full story here


«13

Comments

  • eekeek Posts: 7,831
    First which I suspect Elizabeth Warren won't be.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 28,118
    eek said:

    First which I suspect Elizabeth Warren won't be.

    Trump will rabbit on about her.
  • nunu2nunu2 Posts: 1,443
    edited May 18
    Dems in Massachusetts could easily change the rules to make it so the Governor has to pick someone from the same party as they have a veto proof majority. Her Senate seat isn't the problem.

    Obama seems to like her a lot and obviously has Bidens ear but the donors don't like her at all. I have a feeling it she has more of a chance then people think.

    I dont think Warren's age is an issue either since she comes across as someone in their late 50's rather than 70's and is rather energetic for her age.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 45,907
    There are fears Britain could be dragged into a global trade war with China after Beijing slapped an 80 per cent tariff on Australian exports as punishment for demanding an independent coronavirus inquiry - which 100 nations including the UK supported

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8332719/Fears-global-trade-war-China-Beijing-slaps-80-cent-tariff-Australian-exports.html
  • nunu2nunu2 Posts: 1,443
    ydoethur said:

    eek said:

    First which I suspect Elizabeth Warren won't be.

    Trump will rabbit on about her.
    Hell do that with anyone.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 30,904

    There are fears Britain could be dragged into a global trade war with China after Beijing slapped an 80 per cent tariff on Australian exports as punishment for demanding an independent coronavirus inquiry - which 100 nations including the UK supported

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8332719/Fears-global-trade-war-China-Beijing-slaps-80-cent-tariff-Australian-exports.html

    Given that Australia (essentially) only exports commodities, and those commodities have global markets, I can't see how this such a serious problem for the Australians.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 3,788
    rcs1000 said:

    There are fears Britain could be dragged into a global trade war with China after Beijing slapped an 80 per cent tariff on Australian exports as punishment for demanding an independent coronavirus inquiry - which 100 nations including the UK supported

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8332719/Fears-global-trade-war-China-Beijing-slaps-80-cent-tariff-Australian-exports.html

    Given that Australia (essentially) only exports commodities, and those commodities have global markets, I can't see how this such a serious problem for the Australians.
    Can't be in WTO rules.

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 45,907
    rcs1000 said:

    There are fears Britain could be dragged into a global trade war with China after Beijing slapped an 80 per cent tariff on Australian exports as punishment for demanding an independent coronavirus inquiry - which 100 nations including the UK supported

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8332719/Fears-global-trade-war-China-Beijing-slaps-80-cent-tariff-Australian-exports.html

    Given that Australia (essentially) only exports commodities, and those commodities have global markets, I can't see how this such a serious problem for the Australians.
    I am guessing it is warning shots fired.
  • nunu2nunu2 Posts: 1,443
    My god they never learn. All journalists are shi*e.

    Writing Boris off again!

    https://mobile.twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1262413408466604032
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 15,656
    ydoethur said:

    eek said:

    First which I suspect Elizabeth Warren won't be.

    Trump will rabbit on about her.
    She will be hare today gone tommorow.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 45,907
    More info...

    The import tax will remain in place for five years, and is expected to wipe out Australian sales into the lucrative market.

    Typically, at least half of Australia's barley exports would be bound for China, trade that was estimated to be worth $1.5 billion in 2018 but due to drought fell to $600 million in 2019.

    https://amp.abc.net.au/article/12261108
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 30,904
    geoffw said:

    rcs1000 said:

    There are fears Britain could be dragged into a global trade war with China after Beijing slapped an 80 per cent tariff on Australian exports as punishment for demanding an independent coronavirus inquiry - which 100 nations including the UK supported

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8332719/Fears-global-trade-war-China-Beijing-slaps-80-cent-tariff-Australian-exports.html

    Given that Australia (essentially) only exports commodities, and those commodities have global markets, I can't see how this such a serious problem for the Australians.
    Can't be in WTO rules.

    Sadly, the combination of Trump and the Chinese probably means the WTO's days are numbered.

    This will not be a positive for mid-sized, open economies like ours.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 3,788
    China scraping the gum off its boot.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 46,465
    nunu2 said:

    My god they never learn. All journalists are shi*e.

    Writing Boris off again!

    https://mobile.twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1262413408466604032

    He should have started that article "Every time I see Boris Johnson, I see what I want myself to see".
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 30,904

    More info...

    The import tax will remain in place for five years, and is expected to wipe out Australian sales into the lucrative market.

    Typically, at least half of Australia's barley exports would be bound for China, trade that was estimated to be worth $1.5 billion in 2018 but due to drought fell to $600 million in 2019.

    https://amp.abc.net.au/article/12261108

    Yeah, but if China is not buying Barley from Australia, they will need to buy it (or other food) from elsewhere. It's not like they have loads of arable land lying fallow.

    So, that means that Russia and Germany (the number two and three producers) will end up selling some of their exports to China instead of to (for example) the UK or Korea. Those countries will then need to buy barley from somewhere. And who now has barley to spare? That would be Australia.

    The owners of dry bulk vessels will be rubbing their hands. But the actual impact on the world (or Australia) will be minimal.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 32,640
    rcs1000 said:

    geoffw said:

    rcs1000 said:

    There are fears Britain could be dragged into a global trade war with China after Beijing slapped an 80 per cent tariff on Australian exports as punishment for demanding an independent coronavirus inquiry - which 100 nations including the UK supported

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8332719/Fears-global-trade-war-China-Beijing-slaps-80-cent-tariff-Australian-exports.html

    Given that Australia (essentially) only exports commodities, and those commodities have global markets, I can't see how this such a serious problem for the Australians.
    Can't be in WTO rules.

    Sadly, the combination of Trump and the Chinese probably means the WTO's days are numbered.

    This will not be a positive for mid-sized, open economies like ours.
    Far-sighted people came up with a solution to this a long time ago.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 28,118
    nunu2 said:

    ydoethur said:

    eek said:

    First which I suspect Elizabeth Warren won't be.

    Trump will rabbit on about her.
    Hell do that with anyone.
    Yes, and it bugs me.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 3,788
    Just as well Wimbledon's off this year. Robinson's barley water would likely have been a no show were it to take place.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 2,972
    https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-wearing-surgical-masks-can-reduce-covid-19-spread-by-75-study-claims-11990381

    Wearing a surgical mask can reduce the spread by 75% study claims.

    Well there's a surprise.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 15,656
    ydoethur said:

    nunu2 said:

    ydoethur said:

    eek said:

    First which I suspect Elizabeth Warren won't be.

    Trump will rabbit on about her.
    Hell do that with anyone.
    Yes, and it bugs me.
    What's up doc?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 28,118
    edited May 18
    This is an interesting article.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-05-19/coronavirus-rental-hardship-pushed-down-the-line/12259322

    Yes, I know it’s about Oz. But many of the features are similar to ones I’m seeing here.

    I don’t have a mortgage on my rental property, so if my tenant had to pause payments (which so far she hasn’t) I wouldn’t be losing vast sums of money even if I let her live there rent free. But it could well be carnage for those who do.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 5,527

    https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-wearing-surgical-masks-can-reduce-covid-19-spread-by-75-study-claims-11990381

    Wearing a surgical mask can reduce the spread by 75% study claims.

    Well there's a surprise.

    Another expert (Professor Karol Sikora) has said there's not much evidence they have a positive effect. So has the Welsh government. There doesn't seem to be much consensus on this.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 15,656

    https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-wearing-surgical-masks-can-reduce-covid-19-spread-by-75-study-claims-11990381

    Wearing a surgical mask can reduce the spread by 75% study claims.

    Well there's a surprise.

    Yes. It sounds as if all hamsters should wear one.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 11,343
    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    nunu2 said:

    ydoethur said:

    eek said:

    First which I suspect Elizabeth Warren won't be.

    Trump will rabbit on about her.
    Hell do that with anyone.
    Yes, and it bugs me.
    What's up doc?
    Some 24 carrot punning this evening.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,764
    Seems the Germans are just about keeping the elusive R in check. Sod all room for manoeuvre though.

  • stodgestodge Posts: 6,760
    RobD said:

    nunu2 said:

    My god they never learn. All journalists are shi*e.

    Writing Boris off again!

    https://mobile.twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1262413408466604032

    He should have started that article "Every time I see Boris Johnson, I see what I want myself to see".
    Boris Johnson is safe until two things happen - one, the majority of Conservative backbenchers believe they are at risk of losing their seats if he remains leader and two, there is an alternative with whom they will be likely to keep their seats.

    Neither condition exists at present.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 28,118

    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    nunu2 said:

    ydoethur said:

    eek said:

    First which I suspect Elizabeth Warren won't be.

    Trump will rabbit on about her.
    Hell do that with anyone.
    Yes, and it bugs me.
    What's up doc?
    Some 24 carrot punning this evening.
    Hare, hare.
  • eadriceadric Posts: 3,331
    rcs1000 said:

    There are fears Britain could be dragged into a global trade war with China after Beijing slapped an 80 per cent tariff on Australian exports as punishment for demanding an independent coronavirus inquiry - which 100 nations including the UK supported

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8332719/Fears-global-trade-war-China-Beijing-slaps-80-cent-tariff-Australian-exports.html

    Given that Australia (essentially) only exports commodities, and those commodities have global markets, I can't see how this such a serious problem for the Australians.
    You what??? Export-wise, Australia is utterly dependent on China. Go visit the iron and coal mines of the Kimberley.

    China could also hurt Oz, very badly, by banning tourists and students from going there. It would barely graze China, they have choices, Australia could not source another huge Asian superpower to milk
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 15,656

    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    nunu2 said:

    ydoethur said:

    eek said:

    First which I suspect Elizabeth Warren won't be.

    Trump will rabbit on about her.
    Hell do that with anyone.
    Yes, and it bugs me.
    What's up doc?
    Some 24 carrot punning this evening.
    That's all folks?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 4,230
    eadric said:

    rcs1000 said:

    There are fears Britain could be dragged into a global trade war with China after Beijing slapped an 80 per cent tariff on Australian exports as punishment for demanding an independent coronavirus inquiry - which 100 nations including the UK supported

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8332719/Fears-global-trade-war-China-Beijing-slaps-80-cent-tariff-Australian-exports.html

    Given that Australia (essentially) only exports commodities, and those commodities have global markets, I can't see how this such a serious problem for the Australians.
    You what??? Export-wise, Australia is utterly dependent on China. Go visit the iron and coal mines of the Kimberley.

    China could also hurt Oz, very badly, by banning tourists and students from going there. It would barely graze China, they have choices, Australia could not source another huge Asian superpower to milk
    Both iron and coal are global commodities - so bulk carriers would simply take the iron and coal further from Australia than China. And China would be buying from the other side of the world as well.
  • eadriceadric Posts: 3,331
    Andy_JS said:

    https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-wearing-surgical-masks-can-reduce-covid-19-spread-by-75-study-claims-11990381

    Wearing a surgical mask can reduce the spread by 75% study claims.

    Well there's a surprise.

    Another expert (Professor Karol Sikora) has said there's not much evidence they have a positive effect. So has the Welsh government. There doesn't seem to be much consensus on this.

    Given their respective records, I am going to plump for the governments of mask-wearing Japan, Korea, Singapore, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Czechia, Austria, over the government of “Wales”
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 16,930
    Andrew said:

    Seems the Germans are just about keeping the elusive R in check. Sod all room for manoeuvre though.

    That depends on who is being infected.

    You can afford a higher R if its the young and healthy rather than the more vulnerable.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 71,984
    stodge said:

    RobD said:

    nunu2 said:

    My god they never learn. All journalists are shi*e.

    Writing Boris off again!

    https://mobile.twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1262413408466604032

    He should have started that article "Every time I see Boris Johnson, I see what I want myself to see".
    Boris Johnson is safe until two things happen - one, the majority of Conservative backbenchers believe they are at risk of losing their seats if he remains leader and two, there is an alternative with whom they will be likely to keep their seats.

    Neither condition exists at present.
    The only difference Sunak might make is to put a more glossy face on WTO terms Brexit, in policy terms he is very much tied to Boris
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 71,984
    edited May 18

    There are fears Britain could be dragged into a global trade war with China after Beijing slapped an 80 per cent tariff on Australian exports as punishment for demanding an independent coronavirus inquiry - which 100 nations including the UK supported

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8332719/Fears-global-trade-war-China-Beijing-slaps-80-cent-tariff-Australian-exports.html

    The US, UK, Japan, EU and India all need to combine to put serious economic pressure on China to agree an independent Covid inquiry
  • eadriceadric Posts: 3,331

    eadric said:

    rcs1000 said:

    There are fears Britain could be dragged into a global trade war with China after Beijing slapped an 80 per cent tariff on Australian exports as punishment for demanding an independent coronavirus inquiry - which 100 nations including the UK supported

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8332719/Fears-global-trade-war-China-Beijing-slaps-80-cent-tariff-Australian-exports.html

    Given that Australia (essentially) only exports commodities, and those commodities have global markets, I can't see how this such a serious problem for the Australians.
    You what??? Export-wise, Australia is utterly dependent on China. Go visit the iron and coal mines of the Kimberley.

    China could also hurt Oz, very badly, by banning tourists and students from going there. It would barely graze China, they have choices, Australia could not source another huge Asian superpower to milk
    Both iron and coal are global commodities - so bulk carriers would simply take the iron and coal further from Australia than China. And China would be buying from the other side of the world as well.
    China imports 70% of the world’s iron ore

    http://www.worldstopexports.com/iron-ore-imports-by-country/

    There are lots of countries that could export lots of iron ore. There is only one major iron ore importer: China

    China has the whip hand here. They can bring Australia to heel very quickly. I wish that weren’t the case, but it is.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 71,984
    Warren represents Massachusetts, an ultra safe Democratic state and brings little to the ticket, a Midwesterner like Klobuchar or Whitmer would be better
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 28,118
    eadric said:

    Andy_JS said:

    https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-wearing-surgical-masks-can-reduce-covid-19-spread-by-75-study-claims-11990381

    Wearing a surgical mask can reduce the spread by 75% study claims.

    Well there's a surprise.

    Another expert (Professor Karol Sikora) has said there's not much evidence they have a positive effect. So has the Welsh government. There doesn't seem to be much consensus on this.

    Given their respective records, I am going to plump for the governments of mask-wearing Japan, Korea, Singapore, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Czechia, Austria, over the government of “Wales”
    You’re rejecting the advice of your own government?

    At least Wales are not fishy.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 16,930
    HYUFD said:

    There are fears Britain could be dragged into a global trade war with China after Beijing slapped an 80 per cent tariff on Australian exports as punishment for demanding an independent coronavirus inquiry - which 100 nations including the UK supported

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8332719/Fears-global-trade-war-China-Beijing-slaps-80-cent-tariff-Australian-exports.html

    The US, EU and India all need to combine to put serious economic pressure on China to agree an independent Covid inquiry
    Here's a scenario:

    Between electoral defeat and leaving office Trump decides to put China back into the stone age.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 11,343
    HYUFD said:

    There are fears Britain could be dragged into a global trade war with China after Beijing slapped an 80 per cent tariff on Australian exports as punishment for demanding an independent coronavirus inquiry - which 100 nations including the UK supported

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8332719/Fears-global-trade-war-China-Beijing-slaps-80-cent-tariff-Australian-exports.html

    The US, EU and India all need to combine to put serious economic pressure on China to agree an independent Covid inquiry
    Which leaves us in the clear to buy Huawei 5G technology.

    Good plan.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 2,841
    nunu2 said:

    My god they never learn. All journalists are shi*e.

    Writing Boris off again!

    https://mobile.twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1262413408466604032

    Well, they are in good company then, because Boris is sh**e!
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 28,118

    HYUFD said:

    There are fears Britain could be dragged into a global trade war with China after Beijing slapped an 80 per cent tariff on Australian exports as punishment for demanding an independent coronavirus inquiry - which 100 nations including the UK supported

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8332719/Fears-global-trade-war-China-Beijing-slaps-80-cent-tariff-Australian-exports.html

    The US, EU and India all need to combine to put serious economic pressure on China to agree an independent Covid inquiry
    Here's a scenario:

    Between electoral defeat and leaving office Trump decides to put China back into the stone age.
    Here’s a pleasanter scenario.

    Between the first results in Virginia and the announcement Trump has lost, Pence finally declares Trump insane.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 19,837
    HYUFD said:

    There are fears Britain could be dragged into a global trade war with China after Beijing slapped an 80 per cent tariff on Australian exports as punishment for demanding an independent coronavirus inquiry - which 100 nations including the UK supported

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8332719/Fears-global-trade-war-China-Beijing-slaps-80-cent-tariff-Australian-exports.html

    The US, EU and India all need to combine to put serious economic pressure on China to agree an independent Covid inquiry
    Tell Xi Jinping that he'll nevah evah get another chance of a photo shoot jolly with HMQ, that should do it.
  • eadriceadric Posts: 3,331
    ydoethur said:

    eadric said:

    Andy_JS said:

    https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-wearing-surgical-masks-can-reduce-covid-19-spread-by-75-study-claims-11990381

    Wearing a surgical mask can reduce the spread by 75% study claims.

    Well there's a surprise.

    Another expert (Professor Karol Sikora) has said there's not much evidence they have a positive effect. So has the Welsh government. There doesn't seem to be much consensus on this.

    Given their respective records, I am going to plump for the governments of mask-wearing Japan, Korea, Singapore, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Czechia, Austria, over the government of “Wales”
    You’re rejecting the advice of your own government?

    At least Wales are not fishy.
    It’s not even a government really, is it? It’s just a money making exercise for a class of particularly mediocre politicians who are able to prove that with a modicum of effort they can make Wales even crappier than England (and it was already much crappier) in new and exciting ways.

    I have learned this while living here amongst you. Devolution is a disaster for Wales. Proper independence would be better, or just go back to government from London.

    This is not a slight on the Welsh people, who, I have discovered, are lovely, warm, funny and friendly. Much nicer than Londoners. The Welsh are like dreaming, singsong Geordies. I love the Welsh. Also, the women are sexy.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 21,316
    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    eek said:

    First which I suspect Elizabeth Warren won't be.

    Trump will rabbit on about her.
    She will be hare today gone tommorow.
    She’d box his ears.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 6,760
    Evening all :)

    An observation or two as it has been nine weeks since I worked other than at home.

    There are apparently 120,000 workers based at Canary Wharf and 99% of them have been working at home (what @NerysHughes calls "working at home" in the public sector apparently) for the past two months. Mrs Stodge is one of them and she is working a full day with plenty of work.

    One of the clients for whom I am helping with office re-configuration is themselves connected to a bank in one of the towers and the big problem there is lift capacity and social distancing in lifts. The latest thinking id 10-15% of capacity in the big office blocks maximum so that mean while 20,000 come back, 100,000 won't and what impact will that have on all the support services in the Canary Wharf complex such as the myriad of places to get lunch?

    I think my small firm will give up its office space and decide to rent fully furnished meeting and Conference facilities later on. We are conducting business quite reasonably via a mixture of videoconferencing platforms (not Zoom). Some earlier client projections of 50% capacity now look hopelessly optimistic and until there's a vaccine available it may be 20% capacity at offices at most.

    My first foray to East Ham High Street in two months today - queues at the banks and the supermarkets but foot traffic well below normal. Bank opening hours of 10 to 2 puts a lot of pressure on and I would imagine if the positive trends of recent days continue for the next 10 days a relieved Boris Johnson will happily tell us we can go to the next phase of easing restrictions on June 1st.

    Still only a minority wearing masks - 20% at most. It's been my experience the group most likely to ignore the restrictions has been young men (irrespective of race, colour or creed). I suppose at 21 you think you are invincible - it's too long ago and I can't remember.

    Final thought - UK Services PMI flash number for May due on Thursday. April was 13.4 - will we be in the 20s? Manufacturing for April was 32.6. Even if we return to nearer normal in June, Q2 2020 is going to be ugly.
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 2,222
    HYUFD said:

    There are fears Britain could be dragged into a global trade war with China after Beijing slapped an 80 per cent tariff on Australian exports as punishment for demanding an independent coronavirus inquiry - which 100 nations including the UK supported

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8332719/Fears-global-trade-war-China-Beijing-slaps-80-cent-tariff-Australian-exports.html

    The US, UK, Japan, EU and India all need to combine to put serious economic pressure on China to agree an independent Covid inquiry
    What will an independent inquiry achieve? We already know they're as guilty as a puppy standing next to a pile of poo. They are a hostile foreign power and it is time to treat them as such.

    A hot war is in nobody's interests but it's clear a cold war and policy of containment are coming.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 21,316
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    nunu2 said:

    ydoethur said:

    eek said:

    First which I suspect Elizabeth Warren won't be.

    Trump will rabbit on about her.
    Hell do that with anyone.
    Yes, and it bugs me.
    What's up doc?
    Some 24 carrot punning this evening.
    That's all folks?
    Yep, run its course...
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 16,930

    Pulpstar said:

    kyf_100 said:

    justin124 said:

    Almost as lovely as the rate at which it has been slipping!
    Boris has managed to put the entire country under house arrest, tank the economy, nationalise half of it, and let a killer virus run rampant through our care homes, killing off thousands of people's grandparents.

    Despte this, the Tories still have a lead.
    38% of care homes, what a horrendous failure. It's probably in 3.8% of households generally. A failure by a factor of 10.
    Care homes are more of a work place than a household.

    Now how many workplaces would allow in people discharged from hospital without some sort of quarantine period.
    Thinking more about what I wrote on the last thread.

    There is no way someone would be allowed to start back at my workplace if there was a possibility that their health was a risk to either themselves or to other employees.

    They would need to have a signed doctor's fitness to work form and an assessment from the H&S manager.

    What I would like to know is what is the equivalent procedure for care homes ?

    Given the legal liabilities surely there must be one ?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 28,118
    eadric said:

    ydoethur said:

    eadric said:

    Andy_JS said:

    https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-wearing-surgical-masks-can-reduce-covid-19-spread-by-75-study-claims-11990381

    Wearing a surgical mask can reduce the spread by 75% study claims.

    Well there's a surprise.

    Another expert (Professor Karol Sikora) has said there's not much evidence they have a positive effect. So has the Welsh government. There doesn't seem to be much consensus on this.

    Given their respective records, I am going to plump for the governments of mask-wearing Japan, Korea, Singapore, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Czechia, Austria, over the government of “Wales”
    You’re rejecting the advice of your own government?

    At least Wales are not fishy.
    It’s not even a government really, is it? It’s just a money making exercise for a class of particularly mediocre politicians who are able to prove that with a modicum of effort they can make Wales even crappier than England (and it was already much crappier) in new and exciting ways.

    I have learned this while living here amongst you. Devolution is a disaster for Wales. Proper independence would be better, or just go back to government from London.

    This is not a slight on the Welsh people, who, I have discovered, are lovely, warm, funny and friendly. Much nicer than Londoners. The Welsh are like dreaming, singsong Geordies. I love the Welsh. Also, the women are sexy.
    Eadric, when I last I checked Staffordshire was not in Wales. So you are not living ‘amongst you’ if you are including me. Although I am quite shallow enough to uncritically accept your plaudits for the Welsh in general.

    You’re right though, the government are pretty shit.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 40,165
    In hamsters.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 28,118
    Nigelb said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    nunu2 said:

    ydoethur said:

    eek said:

    First which I suspect Elizabeth Warren won't be.

    Trump will rabbit on about her.
    Hell do that with anyone.
    Yes, and it bugs me.
    What's up doc?
    Some 24 carrot punning this evening.
    That's all folks?
    Yep, run its course...
    In the inexorable march of time..
  • eadriceadric Posts: 3,331
    kyf_100 said:

    HYUFD said:

    There are fears Britain could be dragged into a global trade war with China after Beijing slapped an 80 per cent tariff on Australian exports as punishment for demanding an independent coronavirus inquiry - which 100 nations including the UK supported

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8332719/Fears-global-trade-war-China-Beijing-slaps-80-cent-tariff-Australian-exports.html

    The US, UK, Japan, EU and India all need to combine to put serious economic pressure on China to agree an independent Covid inquiry
    What will an independent inquiry achieve? We already know they're as guilty as a puppy standing next to a pile of poo. They are a hostile foreign power and it is time to treat them as such.

    A hot war is in nobody's interests but it's clear a cold war and policy of containment are coming.
    It will be a weird Cold War. A Cold War with a lot of continued trade. But politically, yes, a Cold War, during which we will try to diversify our supply chains.

    The West - USA, Canada, UK, EU - will do fine without China. Eventually. We will be poorer but we won’t starve.

    The countries that will be in a terrible position will be East Asian democracies like Japan, Korea, Taiwan. Stuck as satellites around a resentful and Increasingly aggressive superpower. China will be like Germany in about 1908.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 16,930
    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    An observation or two as it has been nine weeks since I worked other than at home.

    There are apparently 120,000 workers based at Canary Wharf and 99% of them have been working at home (what @NerysHughes calls "working at home" in the public sector apparently) for the past two months. Mrs Stodge is one of them and she is working a full day with plenty of work.

    One of the clients for whom I am helping with office re-configuration is themselves connected to a bank in one of the towers and the big problem there is lift capacity and social distancing in lifts. The latest thinking id 10-15% of capacity in the big office blocks maximum so that mean while 20,000 come back, 100,000 won't and what impact will that have on all the support services in the Canary Wharf complex such as the myriad of places to get lunch?

    I think my small firm will give up its office space and decide to rent fully furnished meeting and Conference facilities later on. We are conducting business quite reasonably via a mixture of videoconferencing platforms (not Zoom). Some earlier client projections of 50% capacity now look hopelessly optimistic and until there's a vaccine available it may be 20% capacity at offices at most.

    My first foray to East Ham High Street in two months today - queues at the banks and the supermarkets but foot traffic well below normal. Bank opening hours of 10 to 2 puts a lot of pressure on and I would imagine if the positive trends of recent days continue for the next 10 days a relieved Boris Johnson will happily tell us we can go to the next phase of easing restrictions on June 1st.

    Still only a minority wearing masks - 20% at most. It's been my experience the group most likely to ignore the restrictions has been young men (irrespective of race, colour or creed). I suppose at 21 you think you are invincible - it's too long ago and I can't remember.

    Final thought - UK Services PMI flash number for May due on Thursday. April was 13.4 - will we be in the 20s? Manufacturing for April was 32.6. Even if we return to nearer normal in June, Q2 2020 is going to be ugly.

    One man's loss can be another's gain.

    If bar and shops and restaurants around Canary Wharf lose business then their equivalents in the residential areas will gain it.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 21,316
    ydoethur said:

    eadric said:

    Andy_JS said:

    https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-wearing-surgical-masks-can-reduce-covid-19-spread-by-75-study-claims-11990381

    Wearing a surgical mask can reduce the spread by 75% study claims.

    Well there's a surprise.

    Another expert (Professor Karol Sikora) has said there's not much evidence they have a positive effect. So has the Welsh government. There doesn't seem to be much consensus on this.

    Given their respective records, I am going to plump for the governments of mask-wearing Japan, Korea, Singapore, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Czechia, Austria, over the government of “Wales”
    You’re rejecting the advice of your own government?

    At least Wales are not fishy.
    So you don’t seat Asian governments on a pedestal ?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 3,162
    ydoethur said:

    eadric said:

    ydoethur said:

    eadric said:

    Andy_JS said:

    https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-wearing-surgical-masks-can-reduce-covid-19-spread-by-75-study-claims-11990381

    Wearing a surgical mask can reduce the spread by 75% study claims.

    Well there's a surprise.

    Another expert (Professor Karol Sikora) has said there's not much evidence they have a positive effect. So has the Welsh government. There doesn't seem to be much consensus on this.

    Given their respective records, I am going to plump for the governments of mask-wearing Japan, Korea, Singapore, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Czechia, Austria, over the government of “Wales”
    You’re rejecting the advice of your own government?

    At least Wales are not fishy.
    It’s not even a government really, is it? It’s just a money making exercise for a class of particularly mediocre politicians who are able to prove that with a modicum of effort they can make Wales even crappier than England (and it was already much crappier) in new and exciting ways.

    I have learned this while living here amongst you. Devolution is a disaster for Wales. Proper independence would be better, or just go back to government from London.

    This is not a slight on the Welsh people, who, I have discovered, are lovely, warm, funny and friendly. Much nicer than Londoners. The Welsh are like dreaming, singsong Geordies. I love the Welsh. Also, the women are sexy.
    Eadric, when I last I checked Staffordshire was not in Wales. So you are not living ‘amongst you’ if you are including me. Although I am quite shallow enough to uncritically accept your plaudits for the Welsh in general.

    You’re right though, the government are pretty shit.
    Eadric has an ultra liberal attitude to national borders.

    Chernobyl is close enough to Belarus for him to consider it Belarusian.

    Similarly, Staffordshire is sufficiently close to Offa’s Dyke for him to regard it as part of Wales.
  • eadriceadric Posts: 3,331

    In hamsters.
    Because it was so good, I unashamedly adduce, once again, NigelB’s superb summary of the research on the utility of masks


    Associations of stay-at-home order and face-masking recommendation with trends in daily new cases and deaths of laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 in the United States

    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.01.20088237v1

    A simple model to show the relative risk of viral aerosol infection from breathing and the benefit of wearing masks in different settings with implications for Covid-19

    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.28.20082990v2

    To mask or not to mask: Modeling the potential for face mask use by the general public to curtail the COVID-19 pandemic

    https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2468042720300117?via=ihub

    Rationale for universal face masks in public against COVID‐19

    https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/resp.13834

    The role of community-wide wearing of face mask for control of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) epidemic due to SARS-CoV-2

    https://www.journalofinfection.com/article/S0163-4453(20)30235-8/pdf

    Performance of fabrics for home-made masks against spread of respiratory infection through droplets: a quantitative mechanistic study

    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.19.20071779v1

    Aerosol Filtration Efficiency of Common Fabrics Used in Respiratory Cloth Masks

    https://pubs.acs.org/doi/10.1021/acsnano.0c03252

    Universal Masking is Urgent in the COVID-19 Pandemic: SEIR and Agent Based Models, Empirical Validation, Policy Recommendations

    https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.13553.pdf

    Assessment of Fabric Masks as Alternatives to Standard Surgical Masks in Terms of Particle Filtration Efficiency

    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.17.20069567v3

    The scientific rationale for the use of simple masks or improvised facial coverings to trap exhaled aerosols and possibly reduce the breathborne spread of COVID-19

    https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1752-7163/ab8a55

    Impact of population mask wearing on Covid-19 post lockdown

    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.13.20063529v1


    Feel free to post the many studies showing that masks don’t work.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 28,118
    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    eadric said:

    Andy_JS said:

    https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-wearing-surgical-masks-can-reduce-covid-19-spread-by-75-study-claims-11990381

    Wearing a surgical mask can reduce the spread by 75% study claims.

    Well there's a surprise.

    Another expert (Professor Karol Sikora) has said there's not much evidence they have a positive effect. So has the Welsh government. There doesn't seem to be much consensus on this.

    Given their respective records, I am going to plump for the governments of mask-wearing Japan, Korea, Singapore, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Czechia, Austria, over the government of “Wales”
    You’re rejecting the advice of your own government?

    At least Wales are not fishy.
    So you don’t seat Asian governments on a pedestal ?
    No. Brutal dictatorships of which there are three on that list, are not in tuna with my mood.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 15,656
    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    nunu2 said:

    ydoethur said:

    eek said:

    First which I suspect Elizabeth Warren won't be.

    Trump will rabbit on about her.
    Hell do that with anyone.
    Yes, and it bugs me.
    What's up doc?
    Some 24 carrot punning this evening.
    That's all folks?
    Yep, run its course...
    In the inexorable march of time..
    We will have to ferret out a few more...
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 21,316
    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    nunu2 said:

    ydoethur said:

    eek said:

    First which I suspect Elizabeth Warren won't be.

    Trump will rabbit on about her.
    Hell do that with anyone.
    Yes, and it bugs me.
    What's up doc?
    Some 24 carrot punning this evening.
    That's all folks?
    Yep, run its course...
    In the inexorable march of time..
    You are in form.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 6,760
    HYUFD said:


    The only difference Sunak might make is to put a more glossy face on WTO terms Brexit, in policy terms he is very much tied to Boris

    None of that will matter if the public prefer him to Johnson.

    I'm also interested in your assertion Starmer would take us back into the Single Market (which would entail Freedom of Movement of course). I see no evidence that will be the Labour position in 2024.

    If there is No Deal and we are trading on WTO rules from 2021 onwards, the Labour position could be to seek to obtain an FTA with the EU if they come into Government in 2024. If there is an FTA arranged during this year it might be labour will simply leave it as it is and continue what is likely to be the unfinished process of securing trade deals beyond the EU (China, Russia, India, Brazil?)
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 11,343
    BTW, I noticed that Van Tam said in the press conference that we don't want the virus to get out of control again.

    Note the 'again'.

    We lost control by failing to lock down early enough. As we all know.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 28,118
    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    nunu2 said:

    ydoethur said:

    eek said:

    First which I suspect Elizabeth Warren won't be.

    Trump will rabbit on about her.
    Hell do that with anyone.
    Yes, and it bugs me.
    What's up doc?
    Some 24 carrot punning this evening.
    That's all folks?
    Yep, run its course...
    In the inexorable march of time..
    You are in form.
    Now, that was a rather clever one. So clever, I can’t think of a comeback. Which may be due to five hours of online teaching, of course.

    I shall go to bed.

    Good night, one and all.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 4,669
    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    An observation or two as it has been nine weeks since I worked other than at home.

    There are apparently 120,000 workers based at Canary Wharf and 99% of them have been working at home (what @NerysHughes calls "working at home" in the public sector apparently) for the past two months. Mrs Stodge is one of them and she is working a full day with plenty of work.

    One of the clients for whom I am helping with office re-configuration is themselves connected to a bank in one of the towers and the big problem there is lift capacity and social distancing in lifts. The latest thinking id 10-15% of capacity in the big office blocks maximum so that mean while 20,000 come back, 100,000 won't and what impact will that have on all the support services in the Canary Wharf complex such as the myriad of places to get lunch?

    I think my small firm will give up its office space and decide to rent fully furnished meeting and Conference facilities later on. We are conducting business quite reasonably via a mixture of videoconferencing platforms (not Zoom). Some earlier client projections of 50% capacity now look hopelessly optimistic and until there's a vaccine available it may be 20% capacity at offices at most.

    My first foray to East Ham High Street in two months today - queues at the banks and the supermarkets but foot traffic well below normal. Bank opening hours of 10 to 2 puts a lot of pressure on and I would imagine if the positive trends of recent days continue for the next 10 days a relieved Boris Johnson will happily tell us we can go to the next phase of easing restrictions on June 1st.

    Still only a minority wearing masks - 20% at most. It's been my experience the group most likely to ignore the restrictions has been young men (irrespective of race, colour or creed). I suppose at 21 you think you are invincible - it's too long ago and I can't remember.

    Final thought - UK Services PMI flash number for May due on Thursday. April was 13.4 - will we be in the 20s? Manufacturing for April was 32.6. Even if we return to nearer normal in June, Q2 2020 is going to be ugly.

    For the most part people (although there will always be exceptions) people seem to be doing their best to observe the 2m rule, but masks are still very much a minority interest. Basically unless they're mandated by law most people won't bother - I'm interpreting this as a product of cultural resistance to the things and our having been told repeatedly that they are of very limited value. FWIW I turned up a Tesco a few days ago, post the Boris speech, wearing one and almost nobody else had bothered - so now I don't either.

    In terms of this disease young men (unless they've got some serious medical problems) are, to all intents and purposes, invincible. They're highly unlikely to fall seriously ill and are more likely to be killed by a meteorite strike than by the virus.

    I see no reason why most office-based workers should ever return to commuting, on a full-time basis at any rate. Canary Wharf and half the office blocks in the City of London might as well be dynamited and the land repurposed for homes and parks. Needless to say the bulk of those support services will fold and their employees will end up on the scrapheap.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 11,343
    Scott_xP said:
    With a Dettol chaser and a UV lamp stuck up his arse?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 5,098
    edited May 18

    ydoethur said:

    eadric said:

    ydoethur said:

    eadric said:

    Andy_JS said:

    https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-wearing-surgical-masks-can-reduce-covid-19-spread-by-75-study-claims-11990381

    Wearing a surgical mask can reduce the spread by 75% study claims.

    Well there's a surprise.

    Another expert (Professor Karol Sikora) has said there's not much evidence they have a positive effect. So has the Welsh government. There doesn't seem to be much consensus on this.

    Given their respective records, I am going to plump for the governments of mask-wearing Japan, Korea, Singapore, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Czechia, Austria, over the government of “Wales”
    You’re rejecting the advice of your own government?

    At least Wales are not fishy.
    It’s not even a government really, is it? It’s just a money making exercise for a class of particularly mediocre politicians who are able to prove that with a modicum of effort they can make Wales even crappier than England (and it was already much crappier) in new and exciting ways.

    I have learned this while living here amongst you. Devolution is a disaster for Wales. Proper independence would be better, or just go back to government from London.

    This is not a slight on the Welsh people, who, I have discovered, are lovely, warm, funny and friendly. Much nicer than Londoners. The Welsh are like dreaming, singsong Geordies. I love the Welsh. Also, the women are sexy.
    Eadric, when I last I checked Staffordshire was not in Wales. So you are not living ‘amongst you’ if you are including me. Although I am quite shallow enough to uncritically accept your plaudits for the Welsh in general.

    You’re right though, the government are pretty shit.
    Eadric has an ultra liberal attitude to national borders.

    Chernobyl is close enough to Belarus for him to consider it Belarusian.

    Similarly, Staffordshire is sufficiently close to Offa’s Dyke for him to regard it as part of Wales.
    I think, as he's an Anglo-Saxon, he'd regard Wales as part of Mercia! Edit: with a name like that ...
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 21,316
    edited May 18
    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    nunu2 said:

    ydoethur said:

    eek said:

    First which I suspect Elizabeth Warren won't be.

    Trump will rabbit on about her.
    Hell do that with anyone.
    Yes, and it bugs me.
    What's up doc?
    Some 24 carrot punning this evening.
    That's all folks?
    Yep, run its course...
    In the inexorable march of time..
    You are in form.
    Now, that was a rather clever one. So clever, I can’t think of a comeback. Which may be due to five hours of online teaching, of course.

    I shall go to bed.

    Good night, one and all.
    You thought Wales... seat Asian... a bit contrived ?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 71,984
    edited May 18
    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:


    The only difference Sunak might make is to put a more glossy face on WTO terms Brexit, in policy terms he is very much tied to Boris

    None of that will matter if the public prefer him to Johnson.

    I'm also interested in your assertion Starmer would take us back into the Single Market (which would entail Freedom of Movement of course). I see no evidence that will be the Labour position in 2024.

    If there is No Deal and we are trading on WTO rules from 2021 onwards, the Labour position could be to seek to obtain an FTA with the EU if they come into Government in 2024. If there is an FTA arranged during this year it might be labour will simply leave it as it is and continue what is likely to be the unfinished process of securing trade deals beyond the EU (China, Russia, India, Brazil?)
    As the EU have made clear the only way they will do a FTA with the UK is if the UK is so closely aligned to the EU as to be in the single market in all but name.

    If it was prepared to offer a genuine Canada style FTA Boris would not need to do WTO terms Brexit.

    So whether Starmer takes the UK back into the EEA or just agrees a FTA with the EU in terms of regulatory alignment we will still be de facto in the single market either way
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 5,098
    edited May 18
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/18/agency-staff-were-spreading-covid-19-between-care-homes-phe-found-in-april

    This, using genetics to trace minor strains of the virus, is the sort of work that should have been done right from the start (and I hope it was, in other prohects [edit]). But the info seems to havbe taken a while to filter out to the community.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 21,316
    Foxy said:
    It’s you frontline healthcare workers...

    ... Trump said he consulted with the White House doctor about taking the drug, but it was not recommended for him.

    "I asked him what do you think. He said, 'Well if you’d like it.' I said, 'Yeah I’d like it. I’d like to take it.'"

    He said he's been taking the drug for about a week-and-a-half and based his decision on positive reviews he's heard from frontline healthcare workers.

    "So far, I seem to be ok," Trump said...
  • stodgestodge Posts: 6,760


    In terms of this disease young men (unless they've got some serious medical problems) are, to all intents and purposes, invincible. They're highly unlikely to fall seriously ill and are more likely to be killed by a meteorite strike than by the virus.

    I see no reason why most office-based workers should ever return to commuting, on a full-time basis at any rate. Canary Wharf and half the office blocks in the City of London might as well be dynamited and the land repurposed for homes and parks. Needless to say the bulk of those support services will fold and their employees will end up on the scrapheap.

    Thank you for the response and apologies for snipping the first paragraph just for brevity.

    The problem is while young men may be statistically invincible the people with whom they interact may not be and if young people are asymptomatic that won't stop them transmitting the virus to older and more vulnerable people.

    Canary Wharf is an extreme example but many towns are dependent on office workers to keep the local economy active through buying lunch, using other services etc. If the office workers don't come back and the value of commercial real estate collapses, some of the regeneration projects are going to be disasters.
  • tysontyson Posts: 5,976
    eadric said:

    In hamsters.
    Because it was so good, I unashamedly adduce, once again, NigelB’s superb summary of the research on the utility of masks


    Associations of stay-at-home order and face-masking recommendation with trends in daily new cases and deaths of laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 in the United States

    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.01.20088237v1

    A simple model to show the relative risk of viral aerosol infection from breathing and the benefit of wearing masks in different settings with implications for Covid-19

    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.28.20082990v2

    To mask or not to mask: Modeling the potential for face mask use by the general public to curtail the COVID-19 pandemic

    https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2468042720300117?via=ihub

    Rationale for universal face masks in public against COVID‐19

    https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/resp.13834

    The role of community-wide wearing of face mask for control of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) epidemic due to SARS-CoV-2

    https://www.journalofinfection.com/article/S0163-4453(20)30235-8/pdf

    Performance of fabrics for home-made masks against spread of respiratory infection through droplets: a quantitative mechanistic study

    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.19.20071779v1

    Aerosol Filtration Efficiency of Common Fabrics Used in Respiratory Cloth Masks

    https://pubs.acs.org/doi/10.1021/acsnano.0c03252

    Universal Masking is Urgent in the COVID-19 Pandemic: SEIR and Agent Based Models, Empirical Validation, Policy Recommendations

    https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.13553.pdf

    Assessment of Fabric Masks as Alternatives to Standard Surgical Masks in Terms of Particle Filtration Efficiency

    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.17.20069567v3

    The scientific rationale for the use of simple masks or improvised facial coverings to trap exhaled aerosols and possibly reduce the breathborne spread of COVID-19

    https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1752-7163/ab8a55

    Impact of population mask wearing on Covid-19 post lockdown

    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.13.20063529v1


    Feel free to post the many studies showing that masks don’t work.
    I liked Nigeb's Post actually.....but glad you have re-posted it
  • tysontyson Posts: 5,976
    HYUFD said:

    Warren represents Massachusetts, an ultra safe Democratic state and brings little to the ticket, a Midwesterner like Klobuchar or Whitmer would be better


    She brings the Bernie progressives.....
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 15,656
    stodge said:


    In terms of this disease young men (unless they've got some serious medical problems) are, to all intents and purposes, invincible. They're highly unlikely to fall seriously ill and are more likely to be killed by a meteorite strike than by the virus.

    I see no reason why most office-based workers should ever return to commuting, on a full-time basis at any rate. Canary Wharf and half the office blocks in the City of London might as well be dynamited and the land repurposed for homes and parks. Needless to say the bulk of those support services will fold and their employees will end up on the scrapheap.

    Thank you for the response and apologies for snipping the first paragraph just for brevity.

    The problem is while young men may be statistically invincible the people with whom they interact may not be and if young people are asymptomatic that won't stop them transmitting the virus to older and more vulnerable people.

    Canary Wharf is an extreme example but many towns are dependent on office workers to keep the local economy active through buying lunch, using other services etc. If the office workers don't come back and the value of commercial real estate collapses, some of the regeneration projects are going to be disasters.
    London, New York etc hollowed out to the suburbs in the Sixties and Seventies. Perhaps those days will return.
  • tysontyson Posts: 5,976
    Foxy said:

    stodge said:


    In terms of this disease young men (unless they've got some serious medical problems) are, to all intents and purposes, invincible. They're highly unlikely to fall seriously ill and are more likely to be killed by a meteorite strike than by the virus.

    I see no reason why most office-based workers should ever return to commuting, on a full-time basis at any rate. Canary Wharf and half the office blocks in the City of London might as well be dynamited and the land repurposed for homes and parks. Needless to say the bulk of those support services will fold and their employees will end up on the scrapheap.

    Thank you for the response and apologies for snipping the first paragraph just for brevity.

    The problem is while young men may be statistically invincible the people with whom they interact may not be and if young people are asymptomatic that won't stop them transmitting the virus to older and more vulnerable people.

    Canary Wharf is an extreme example but many towns are dependent on office workers to keep the local economy active through buying lunch, using other services etc. If the office workers don't come back and the value of commercial real estate collapses, some of the regeneration projects are going to be disasters.
    London, New York etc hollowed out to the suburbs in the Sixties and Seventies. Perhaps those days will return.
    I fucking hope not.....I hate the suburbs
  • eekeek Posts: 7,831
    tyson said:

    HYUFD said:

    Warren represents Massachusetts, an ultra safe Democratic state and brings little to the ticket, a Midwesterner like Klobuchar or Whitmer would be better


    She brings the Bernie progressives.....
    Are those enough to win the Midwest? If not you are better off with a candidate who can swing a State or 2.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 33,462
    Pulpstar said:

    kyf_100 said:

    justin124 said:

    Almost as lovely as the rate at which it has been slipping!
    Boris has managed to put the entire country under house arrest, tank the economy, nationalise half of it, and let a killer virus run rampant through our care homes, killing off thousands of people's grandparents.

    Despte this, the Tories still have a lead.
    38% of care homes, what a horrendous failure. It's probably in 3.8% of households generally. A failure by a factor of 10.
    Considering there's more than 10 staff working in a care home I'm struggling to understand why you think that's a failure. Actually 3.8% of households (if true) makes 62% of homes not having an outbreak seem like a remarkable success.

    If you're right that 3.8% of households have the virus then in order to have a 38% chance of at least one staff member having the virus you'd need only 12 staff. However I suspect most homes have many more than 12 staff. (1 - 0.962^12)

    If you're right that 3.8% of households then if a home has 25 staff members there's there's a 62% chance that at least one of those staff does have the virus.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 14,447
    tyson said:

    HYUFD said:

    Warren represents Massachusetts, an ultra safe Democratic state and brings little to the ticket, a Midwesterner like Klobuchar or Whitmer would be better


    She brings the Bernie progressives.....
    Does she though? It's possible to see her as the person whoi hung on long enough to stop Bernie wrappinmg up the nomination.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 6,760
    HYUFD said:


    As the EU have made clear the only way they will do a FTA with the UK is if the UK is so closely aligned to the EU as to be in the single market in all but name.

    If it was prepared to offer a genuine Canada style FTA Boris would not need to do WTO terms Brexit.

    So whether Starmer takes the UK back into the EEA or just agrees a FTA with the EU in terms of regulatory alignment we will still be de facto in the single market either way

    We'll have to say how much of the EU's position is rhetoric and how much is substance but I understand they would not wish the UK to "cherry pick" the terms of a relationship which, as the EU would see it, would offer all the benefits of membership without any of the obligations.

    From our side, I understand the view we didn't go through all the pain of leaving just to have a BINO with forced regulatory alignment.

    That doesn't mean such positions will hold ad infinitum - the problem with Canada + (or ++) as I understood it was it didn't apply to Services which is a significant if not pre-eminent part of the UK economy.

    The Swiss got the best deal in my view and perhaps we might get somewhere offering a series of bilateral treaties.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 15,656
    edited May 18
    Nigelb said:

    Foxy said:
    It’s you frontline healthcare workers...

    ... Trump said he consulted with the White House doctor about taking the drug, but it was not recommended for him.

    "I asked him what do you think. He said, 'Well if you’d like it.' I said, 'Yeah I’d like it. I’d like to take it.'"

    He said he's been taking the drug for about a week-and-a-half and based his decision on positive reviews he's heard from frontline healthcare workers.

    "So far, I seem to be ok," Trump said...
    The recent randomised controlled trial showed no effect, only side effects.

    https://www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m1849

    Worth noting that in both HCQ and control groups, about a fifth were still producing virus 28 days after enrolment.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 16,930
    Foxy said:

    stodge said:


    In terms of this disease young men (unless they've got some serious medical problems) are, to all intents and purposes, invincible. They're highly unlikely to fall seriously ill and are more likely to be killed by a meteorite strike than by the virus.

    I see no reason why most office-based workers should ever return to commuting, on a full-time basis at any rate. Canary Wharf and half the office blocks in the City of London might as well be dynamited and the land repurposed for homes and parks. Needless to say the bulk of those support services will fold and their employees will end up on the scrapheap.

    Thank you for the response and apologies for snipping the first paragraph just for brevity.

    The problem is while young men may be statistically invincible the people with whom they interact may not be and if young people are asymptomatic that won't stop them transmitting the virus to older and more vulnerable people.

    Canary Wharf is an extreme example but many towns are dependent on office workers to keep the local economy active through buying lunch, using other services etc. If the office workers don't come back and the value of commercial real estate collapses, some of the regeneration projects are going to be disasters.
    London, New York etc hollowed out to the suburbs in the Sixties and Seventies. Perhaps those days will return.
    A lot of suburbia has been in decline for about 20 years so perhaps under-priced and available for revitalisation.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 21,316
    Foxy said:

    Nigelb said:

    Foxy said:
    It’s you frontline healthcare workers...

    ... Trump said he consulted with the White House doctor about taking the drug, but it was not recommended for him.

    "I asked him what do you think. He said, 'Well if you’d like it.' I said, 'Yeah I’d like it. I’d like to take it.'"

    He said he's been taking the drug for about a week-and-a-half and based his decision on positive reviews he's heard from frontline healthcare workers.

    "So far, I seem to be ok," Trump said...
    The recent randomised controlled trial showed no effect, only side effects.

    https://www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m1849

    Worth noting that in both HCQ and control groups, about a fifth were still producing virus 28 days after enrolment.
    Yes, the hyping of this drug has been a depressing episode.
    It was reasonable to trial it, but it got completely out of hand.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 4,669
    stodge said:

    The problem is while young men may be statistically invincible the people with whom they interact may not be and if young people are asymptomatic that won't stop them transmitting the virus to older and more vulnerable people.

    Canary Wharf is an extreme example but many towns are dependent on office workers to keep the local economy active through buying lunch, using other services etc. If the office workers don't come back and the value of commercial real estate collapses, some of the regeneration projects are going to be disasters.

    I am guessing that, as the weeks drag on and people tire of the lockdown, there will be more and more social interactions. The Government can force all the pubs and restaurants to stay shut but it can do almost nothing about mates meeting up for a kickabout in the park, or friends, family, boyfriends and girlfriends going round each others' houses.

    The big question, in that case, is the extent to which more vulnerable people are exposed. Frankly, if most of the shielded cohort continue to shield and many old people, especially the more frail and fearful ones, also carry on sealing themselves off then the disease could run through the populace at a steady rate and still not come close to buggering the hospitals. We just don't know.

    Eventually homes, leisure and cultural venues could help the cities to reinvent themselves, but in the short and medium term it's reasonable to suppose that there will be a large-scale relocation of economic activity out of them. If you have a nice house in a leafy suburb or country town and the new reality is that you're now working in it as well, then it stands to reason that most of the time you're saving on commuting is going to be spent on shopping and leisure activities closer to home. Cities risk ending up consisting largely of hollowed-out centres surrounded by the homes of the young and the urban poor.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 15,656

    Foxy said:

    stodge said:


    In terms of this disease young men (unless they've got some serious medical problems) are, to all intents and purposes, invincible. They're highly unlikely to fall seriously ill and are more likely to be killed by a meteorite strike than by the virus.

    I see no reason why most office-based workers should ever return to commuting, on a full-time basis at any rate. Canary Wharf and half the office blocks in the City of London might as well be dynamited and the land repurposed for homes and parks. Needless to say the bulk of those support services will fold and their employees will end up on the scrapheap.

    Thank you for the response and apologies for snipping the first paragraph just for brevity.

    The problem is while young men may be statistically invincible the people with whom they interact may not be and if young people are asymptomatic that won't stop them transmitting the virus to older and more vulnerable people.

    Canary Wharf is an extreme example but many towns are dependent on office workers to keep the local economy active through buying lunch, using other services etc. If the office workers don't come back and the value of commercial real estate collapses, some of the regeneration projects are going to be disasters.
    London, New York etc hollowed out to the suburbs in the Sixties and Seventies. Perhaps those days will return.
    A lot of suburbia has been in decline for about 20 years so perhaps under-priced and available for revitalisation.
    I suspect to hipsters quarantined In Clerkenwell apartments, the Goode Life in Surbiton must appeal.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 6,760


    Considering there's more than 10 staff working in a care home I'm struggling to understand why you think that's a failure. Actually 3.8% of households (if true) makes 62% of homes not having an outbreak seem like a remarkable success.

    If you're right that 3.8% of households have the virus then in order to have a 38% chance of at least one staff member having the virus you'd need only 12 staff. However I suspect most homes have many more than 12 staff. (1 - 0.962^12)

    If you're right that 3.8% of households then if a home has 25 staff members there's there's a 62% chance that at least one of those staff does have the virus.

    We all know something terrible has happened within the residential care home sector and there have been thousands of deaths and there's no point hiding behind statistics.

    There'll be plenty of blame to throw round later but we need to establish what happened, why it happened and how we can prevent something like this happening again in a second wave.

    I'd go further and say this is the time to be having a proper national debate about we treat the elderly - what their place in society is and what they should expect from us and what we should expect from them.

    Should the onus switch back from care in the residential home sector to care within the family with proper Government financial help to expedite it?

    Should we be talking about providing the option for a dignified end to a life if an individual of sound mind requests it? What about the scourge of dementia? How do we provide proper dementia care while recognising the real victims aren't always the individuals but their relatives?
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 14,447
    Striking poll showing that mosty younger Leave voters hope for more environmental regulation after leaving the EU:

    https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/brexit-poll-eu-rules-voters_uk_5ec2697ac5b6092e8e0c7ff9?utm_hp_ref=uk-politics&?ncid=newsltukhpmgpols
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 15,656

    stodge said:

    The problem is while young men may be statistically invincible the people with whom they interact may not be and if young people are asymptomatic that won't stop them transmitting the virus to older and more vulnerable people.

    Canary Wharf is an extreme example but many towns are dependent on office workers to keep the local economy active through buying lunch, using other services etc. If the office workers don't come back and the value of commercial real estate collapses, some of the regeneration projects are going to be disasters.

    Eventually homes, leisure and cultural venues could help the cities to reinvent themselves, but in the short and medium term it's reasonable to suppose that there will be a large-scale relocation of economic activity out of them. If you have a nice house in a leafy suburb or country town and the new reality is that you're now working in it as well, then it stands to reason that most of the time you're saving on commuting is going to be spent on shopping and leisure activities closer to home. Cities risk ending up consisting largely of hollowed-out centres surrounded by the homes of the young and the urban poor.
    So rather like the London of my youth...
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 187

    tyson said:

    HYUFD said:

    Warren represents Massachusetts, an ultra safe Democratic state and brings little to the ticket, a Midwesterner like Klobuchar or Whitmer would be better


    She brings the Bernie progressives.....
    Does she though? It's possible to see her as the person whoi hung on long enough to stop Bernie wrappinmg up the nomination.
    I'm with Nick on this. A lot of the Sanders die-hards don't like Warren after her accusations about Sanders and the view that she blocked a progressive winning the nomination.

    In any event, I don't think Biden will go with a white woman, he needs minority turnout.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 33,462
    stodge said:


    Considering there's more than 10 staff working in a care home I'm struggling to understand why you think that's a failure. Actually 3.8% of households (if true) makes 62% of homes not having an outbreak seem like a remarkable success.

    If you're right that 3.8% of households have the virus then in order to have a 38% chance of at least one staff member having the virus you'd need only 12 staff. However I suspect most homes have many more than 12 staff. (1 - 0.962^12)

    If you're right that 3.8% of households then if a home has 25 staff members there's there's a 62% chance that at least one of those staff does have the virus.

    We all know something terrible has happened within the residential care home sector and there have been thousands of deaths and there's no point hiding behind statistics.

    There'll be plenty of blame to throw round later but we need to establish what happened, why it happened and how we can prevent something like this happening again in a second wave.

    I'd go further and say this is the time to be having a proper national debate about we treat the elderly - what their place in society is and what they should expect from us and what we should expect from them.

    Should the onus switch back from care in the residential home sector to care within the family with proper Government financial help to expedite it?

    Should we be talking about providing the option for a dignified end to a life if an individual of sound mind requests it? What about the scourge of dementia? How do we provide proper dementia care while recognising the real victims aren't always the individuals but their relatives?
    I think things have gone wrong, but I think its a symptom of the epidemic being in our society. If we want to have groups of elderly people living together in a home with dozens of staff members - then if there's a virus like this infecting the community its almost inevitable at least some staff members will get it and bring the virus in with them.

    The only way I see to not have an epidemic in care homes is not to have an epidemic in society.

    I can't think of a single nation anywhere in the world to have a societal pandemic that hasn't seen it enter care homes as a result. As much as possible needs to be done to protect them but if the virus is wild in society then some staff will get it.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 16,930
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    stodge said:


    In terms of this disease young men (unless they've got some serious medical problems) are, to all intents and purposes, invincible. They're highly unlikely to fall seriously ill and are more likely to be killed by a meteorite strike than by the virus.

    I see no reason why most office-based workers should ever return to commuting, on a full-time basis at any rate. Canary Wharf and half the office blocks in the City of London might as well be dynamited and the land repurposed for homes and parks. Needless to say the bulk of those support services will fold and their employees will end up on the scrapheap.

    Thank you for the response and apologies for snipping the first paragraph just for brevity.

    The problem is while young men may be statistically invincible the people with whom they interact may not be and if young people are asymptomatic that won't stop them transmitting the virus to older and more vulnerable people.

    Canary Wharf is an extreme example but many towns are dependent on office workers to keep the local economy active through buying lunch, using other services etc. If the office workers don't come back and the value of commercial real estate collapses, some of the regeneration projects are going to be disasters.
    London, New York etc hollowed out to the suburbs in the Sixties and Seventies. Perhaps those days will return.
    A lot of suburbia has been in decline for about 20 years so perhaps under-priced and available for revitalisation.
    I suspect to hipsters quarantined In Clerkenwell apartments, the Goode Life in Surbiton must appeal.
    I suspect the places which will be hit hardest will be those too far from the centre of their town or city to walk in but not far enough out to have a garden and parking.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 21,316
    Foxy said:

    Nigelb said:

    Foxy said:
    It’s you frontline healthcare workers...

    ... Trump said he consulted with the White House doctor about taking the drug, but it was not recommended for him.

    "I asked him what do you think. He said, 'Well if you’d like it.' I said, 'Yeah I’d like it. I’d like to take it.'"

    He said he's been taking the drug for about a week-and-a-half and based his decision on positive reviews he's heard from frontline healthcare workers.

    "So far, I seem to be ok," Trump said...
    The recent randomised controlled trial showed no effect, only side effects.

    https://www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m1849

    Worth noting that in both HCQ and control groups, about a fifth were still producing virus 28 days after enrolment.
    (Of course...)

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