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SystemSystem Posts: 8,258
edited May 22 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Latest UK and US polling not good for Johnson’s government and Trump

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  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 1,914
    First
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 15,656
    First?
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 6,025
    That's quite the gender gap in the US.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 10,386
    rkrkrk said:

    That's quite the gender gap in the US.

    It sure is. All hail the Sisters!
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 15,656
    edited May 22
    rkrkrk said:

    That's quite the gender gap in the US.

    Yep. The allegations against Biden vs the pussy grabber ain't much of a choice, but its only going one way.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 1,914
    Foxy said:

    rkrkrk said:

    That's quite the gender gap in the US.

    Yep. The allegations against Biden vs the pussy grabber ain't much of a choice, but its only going one way.
    Has that been proved or is it just an allegation?
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,097
    Anyone taking very much notice of UK polling in the last couple of months has been foolish. It's a cartoon snapshot at the best of times. I wouldn't read much into the latest polling either.

    The next period promises to be stickier for the government in polling terms. The slumber party is over, and everyone needs to be turfed out with goodie bags when they're still grumpy. That doesn't sound like a recipe for bonhomie towards the government.

    I wouldn't read very much into that either.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 4,231
    kinabalu said:


    Have you ever read - "They Thought They Were Free: The Germans" ?

    Looks worth reading per a Google. Had not heard of book or author.

    What's the nutshell?
    It's a very low level study of "Why it happened?". Also - "Where they went after 45".

    One aspect is - "Decent*" people don't need to question their actions. As long as you are doing what the other nice people are doing, its all ticketybo. Outsource your moral compass.....

    * Self defined, of course.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 2,589

    Anyone taking very much notice of UK polling in the last couple of months has been foolish. It's a cartoon snapshot at the best of times. I wouldn't read much into the latest polling either.

    The next period promises to be stickier for the government in polling terms. The slumber party is over, and everyone needs to be turfed out with goodie bags when they're still grumpy. That doesn't sound like a recipe for bonhomie towards the government.

    I wouldn't read very much into that either.

    How do I vote for the Slumber Party?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 4,231

    Foxy said:

    rkrkrk said:

    That's quite the gender gap in the US.

    Yep. The allegations against Biden vs the pussy grabber ain't much of a choice, but its only going one way.
    Has that been proved or is it just an allegation?
    It's an allegation.

    If it was proven, he would be toast, I think.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 15,656

    Foxy said:

    rkrkrk said:

    That's quite the gender gap in the US.

    Yep. The allegations against Biden vs the pussy grabber ain't much of a choice, but its only going one way.
    Has that been proved or is it just an allegation?
    It's an allegation.

    If it was proven, he would be toast, I think.
    Certainly no evidence of harming Joe in the polls.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 6,780
    Endillion said:

    Anyone taking very much notice of UK polling in the last couple of months has been foolish. It's a cartoon snapshot at the best of times. I wouldn't read much into the latest polling either.

    The next period promises to be stickier for the government in polling terms. The slumber party is over, and everyone needs to be turfed out with goodie bags when they're still grumpy. That doesn't sound like a recipe for bonhomie towards the government.

    I wouldn't read very much into that either.

    How do I vote for the Slumber Party?
    They have low levels of activity and engagement.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 1,572

    Foxy said:

    rkrkrk said:

    That's quite the gender gap in the US.

    Yep. The allegations against Biden vs the pussy grabber ain't much of a choice, but its only going one way.
    Has that been proved or is it just an allegation?
    Were they not his own words on the tape? Have I just imagined that or is propaganda working on me?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 3,497
    HYUFD said:
    I love how you have selected those polls favourable to Trump. Top work!
  • kjhkjh Posts: 1,572
    kjh said:

    Foxy said:

    rkrkrk said:

    That's quite the gender gap in the US.

    Yep. The allegations against Biden vs the pussy grabber ain't much of a choice, but its only going one way.
    Has that been proved or is it just an allegation?
    Were they not his own words on the tape? Have I just imagined that or is propaganda working on me?
    Whoops I think I misread. I was referring to the 'pussy grabber' comment.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 3,162
    Good grief, I would place myself as slightly bearish on a Trumpton defeat but those numbers look absolutely awful for him.

    I also note some polling data from HYUFD on the previous thread, which again looks pretty dire for Trumpton.

    Perhaps @HYUFD and @kinabalu will be proved right after all and Trumpton will get his sorry arse kicked in November.

    I just think it's too good to be true, which might be colouring my judgement.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 19,837
    Foxy said:

    rkrkrk said:

    That's quite the gender gap in the US.

    Yep. The allegations against Biden vs the pussy grabber ain't much of a choice, but its only going one way.
    It's finely balanced but I guess denying that one is a pussy grabber just edges it over self confessed, proud pussy grabber.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 1,572

    Good grief, I would place myself as slightly bearish on a Trumpton defeat but those numbers look absolutely awful for him.

    I also note some polling data from HYUFD on the previous thread, which again looks pretty dire for Trumpton.

    Perhaps @HYUFD and @kinabalu will be proved right after all and Trumpton will get his sorry arse kicked in November.

    I just think it's too good to be true, which might be colouring my judgement.

    I agree with all of that.

    I think the gender split however is an embarrassment to the male sex.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 19,837
    HYUFD said:

    The actual voting intention and preferred PM polling remains very good for Boris and the Tories.


    I'm guessing that the Scotch straw clutchers predicting an SKS inspired recovery for Lab in Scotland based on *one* subsample will be avoiding this poll like the plague.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 4,231

    Foxy said:

    rkrkrk said:

    That's quite the gender gap in the US.

    Yep. The allegations against Biden vs the pussy grabber ain't much of a choice, but its only going one way.
    It's finely balanced but I guess denying that one is a pussy grabber just edges it over self confessed, proud pussy grabber.
    ... plus the tidal wave of demented fuckwittery/racism/corruption that Trump represents.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 10,386
    edited May 22

    Good grief, I would place myself as slightly bearish on a Trumpton defeat but those numbers look absolutely awful for him.

    I also note some polling data from HYUFD on the previous thread, which again looks pretty dire for Trumpton.

    Perhaps @HYUFD and @kinabalu will be proved right after all and Trumpton will get his sorry arse kicked in November.

    I just think it's too good to be true, which might be colouring my judgement.

    Just hope he doesn't freak at the prospect of a thrashing and bomb China.

    The "Trump Toast" club atm is me, @Alistair and @Stocky.

    @HYUFD is an associate member - and very welcome to use the bar on a weekday - having always said if the Dems pick Sleepy they have a great chance.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 5,099
    Foxy said:

    Carnyx said:

    O/T

    Apologies for posting this link to the Oxford Dictionary of Family Names again but for anyone interested in ancestry / family history this fascinating resource is currently free online, until Monday apparently.

    https://www.oxfordreference.com/view/10.1093/acref/9780199677764.001.0001/acref-9780199677764

    Thanks! Alas the (very unusual) surname of a relative isn't in there - though a ?variant is ...

    If we are on freebies and family history, The National Archives are offering free downloads of scans on their site (you need to check the details, and it won't cover new scans, but for instance I have been downloading lots of early C19 wills for research, and my granddad's Great War medal card).
    https://forebears.io/

    Is pretty good with unusual surnames
    FPT - Thanks! A really surprising result.
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 1,342
    edited May 22

    Good grief, I would place myself as slightly bearish on a Trumpton defeat but those numbers look absolutely awful for him.

    I also note some polling data from HYUFD on the previous thread, which again looks pretty dire for Trumpton.

    Perhaps @HYUFD and @kinabalu will be proved right after all and Trumpton will get his sorry arse kicked in November.

    I just think it's too good to be true, which might be colouring my judgement.

    It's the economy that will doom Trump. The US hasn't put in any of the measures to protect ordinary people that we have, apart from a one-off $1200 payment that some people haven't even received. No furlough, no income support, no job protection, nothing. Unemployment may already be at Great Depression levels and will go higher, taking tens of millions off the healthcare provision tied to their employer.

    Unless Biden has a complete physical or mental meltdown before November (which is not impossible), Trump is finished.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 32,966
    kinabalu said:

    Good grief, I would place myself as slightly bearish on a Trumpton defeat but those numbers look absolutely awful for him.

    I also note some polling data from HYUFD on the previous thread, which again looks pretty dire for Trumpton.

    Perhaps @HYUFD and @kinabalu will be proved right after all and Trumpton will get his sorry arse kicked in November.

    I just think it's too good to be true, which might be colouring my judgement.

    Just hope he doesn't freak at the prospect of a thrashing and bomb China.

    The "Trump Toast" club atm is me, @Alistair and @Stocky.

    @HYUFD is an associate member - and very welcome to use the bar on a weekday - having always said if the Dems pick Sleepy they have a great chance.
    I remain hopeful, but unconvinced. Trump is a SOB and he will stop at nothing. This is going to be utterly brutal.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 187
    On topic and FPT

    On the US polls, they are all over the place - Quinnipac is +11 for Biden but there have been several other polls out today and yesterday, one showing +1 for Biden, 1 at +3, 1 at +5 and 1 at +8. Saying Trump is definitely in trouble because of the worst of the bunch might be looking at it through rose-tinted specs (if you hate Trump :smile: )

    Second, re Klobuchar as VP pick for Biden, one reason I see it as credible is that Joe Biden a few days back said he would stop the Keystone XL pipe coming through the US, which wouldn't go down too well in Minnesota given it strengthens the view the Democrats are too-pro environmental for a state where extraction is important. Having Klobuchar as the VP pick may be seen as a way of minimising the risk of Minnesota going Red whilst also helping Biden in the Midwest and without having someone as polarising as Whitmer on the ticket.

    Also, yesterday, somebody mentioned Maine, NH and Minnesota as states that could flip Red in 2020. Agree on the last two but, if you want two surprises for betting tips (and where you might get good odds when they appear given how they are seen as "safe" Blue states), look at,

    1. Virginia. The gap between Clinton and Trump last time was c. 5% with the Democrats below 50%. The Libertarians and McMullin got over 4% of the vote last time and there is a good chance Trump can squeeze at least some of that. Add in the furore over gun rights and abortion in the state, which might fire up the Republican base, it might not be insurmountable (especially if a Biden-Klobuchar combo doesn't fire up the African-American vote)

    2. Nevada. Gap last time was under 2.5% between Trump and Clinton. The Libertarians got 3.3% and again Trump may be able to squeeze some. Plus Biden didn't do so well amongst Hispanics in the primaries and there has been a small but noticeable shift to Trump / Republicans generally. A final point is that it is a state heavily dependent on tourism, conventions etc. With the Republicans being seen as the party of opening up and the Democrats of keeping a lockdown, that may swing the vote.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 32,966
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 10,386

    Foxy said:

    rkrkrk said:

    That's quite the gender gap in the US.

    Yep. The allegations against Biden vs the pussy grabber ain't much of a choice, but its only going one way.
    It's finely balanced but I guess denying that one is a pussy grabber just edges it over self confessed, proud pussy grabber.
    The hope is that Biden at least feels bad about his unwanted forays and stopped offending at an earlier age. It's not the most inspiring of messages - can't see it going on a tee shirt - but it ought probably to be enough. In the land of the pussy grabbers the one ...
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 11,028
    edited May 22

    Foxy said:

    rkrkrk said:

    That's quite the gender gap in the US.

    Yep. The allegations against Biden vs the pussy grabber ain't much of a choice, but its only going one way.
    It's finely balanced but I guess denying that one is a pussy grabber just edges it over self confessed, proud pussy grabber.
    ... plus the tidal wave of demented fuckwittery/racism/corruption that Trump represents.
    It no longer matters whether something Trump says or does is particularly racist or stupid. He could come out and observe that the sky was looking rather cloudy and there would be an immediate volley of outraged and flabbergasted Tweets to the contrary, followed by a chorus of professorly rebuttals, followed by a series of solemn statements of opposing politicians and retired agency chiefs dolorously warning us all against believing this dangerous pseudo-scientific mumbo-jumbo.

    It is a particular skill of Trump's to get his opponents to behave as badly and idiotically as he does.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 4,231
    kinabalu said:

    Good grief, I would place myself as slightly bearish on a Trumpton defeat but those numbers look absolutely awful for him.

    I also note some polling data from HYUFD on the previous thread, which again looks pretty dire for Trumpton.

    Perhaps @HYUFD and @kinabalu will be proved right after all and Trumpton will get his sorry arse kicked in November.

    I just think it's too good to be true, which might be colouring my judgement.

    Just hope he doesn't freak at the prospect of a thrashing and bomb China.

    The "Trump Toast" club atm is me, @Alistair and @Stocky.

    @HYUFD is an associate member - and very welcome to use the bar on a weekday - having always said if the Dems pick Sleepy they have a great chance.
    It does look as if the Trump Wall* has partly crumbled.

    *The AlwaysNoMatterWhatHeDoes Trump voters
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 40,167
    Has Raab said anything about this - or is he leaving all the running to the US?

    https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/politics/article/3085574/two-sessions-2020-beijing-sets-sights-hong-kong-legal
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 32,966
    MrEd said:

    On topic and FPT

    On the US polls, they are all over the place - Quinnipac is +11 for Biden but there have been several other polls out today and yesterday, one showing +1 for Biden, 1 at +3, 1 at +5 and 1 at +8. Saying Trump is definitely in trouble because of the worst of the bunch might be looking at it through rose-tinted specs (if you hate Trump :smile: )

    Second, re Klobuchar as VP pick for Biden, one reason I see it as credible is that Joe Biden a few days back said he would stop the Keystone XL pipe coming through the US, which wouldn't go down too well in Minnesota given it strengthens the view the Democrats are too-pro environmental for a state where extraction is important. Having Klobuchar as the VP pick may be seen as a way of minimising the risk of Minnesota going Red whilst also helping Biden in the Midwest and without having someone as polarising as Whitmer on the ticket.

    Also, yesterday, somebody mentioned Maine, NH and Minnesota as states that could flip Red in 2020. Agree on the last two but, if you want two surprises for betting tips (and where you might get good odds when they appear given how they are seen as "safe" Blue states), look at,

    1. Virginia. The gap between Clinton and Trump last time was c. 5% with the Democrats below 50%. The Libertarians and McMullin got over 4% of the vote last time and there is a good chance Trump can squeeze at least some of that. Add in the furore over gun rights and abortion in the state, which might fire up the Republican base, it might not be insurmountable (especially if a Biden-Klobuchar combo doesn't fire up the African-American vote)

    2. Nevada. Gap last time was under 2.5% between Trump and Clinton. The Libertarians got 3.3% and again Trump may be able to squeeze some. Plus Biden didn't do so well amongst Hispanics in the primaries and there has been a small but noticeable shift to Trump / Republicans generally. A final point is that it is a state heavily dependent on tourism, conventions etc. With the Republicans being seen as the party of opening up and the Democrats of keeping a lockdown, that may swing the vote.

    Virginia? Last two polls had Biden in double figure lead of 10 and 12. And Biden fires up the African-American vote.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 3,497

    Foxy said:

    rkrkrk said:

    That's quite the gender gap in the US.

    Yep. The allegations against Biden vs the pussy grabber ain't much of a choice, but its only going one way.
    It's finely balanced but I guess denying that one is a pussy grabber just edges it over self confessed, proud pussy grabber.
    ... plus the tidal wave of demented fuckwittery/racism/corruption that Trump represents.
    All that you have described is priced in for Trump. I am not sure it is for Biden.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 4,231
    edited May 22
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    rkrkrk said:

    That's quite the gender gap in the US.

    Yep. The allegations against Biden vs the pussy grabber ain't much of a choice, but its only going one way.
    Has that been proved or is it just an allegation?
    It's an allegation.

    If it was proven, he would be toast, I think.
    Certainly no evidence of harming Joe in the polls.
    Hmmm... I wonder what the hypothetical Dem candidate I outline before would be doing in the polls?

    Imagine, say, Biden but 45, verbally articulate and without the allegations.

    Or is the vote behind him just NeverTrump expanding?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 4,231
    *Some* Level 5 biohazard suit systems have the ability to ingest fluids, while suited up. Special port, with straw etc....
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 1,146

    Good grief, I would place myself as slightly bearish on a Trumpton defeat but those numbers look absolutely awful for him.

    I also note some polling data from HYUFD on the previous thread, which again looks pretty dire for Trumpton.

    Perhaps @HYUFD and @kinabalu will be proved right after all and Trumpton will get his sorry arse kicked in November.

    I just think it's too good to be true, which might be colouring my judgement.

    It's the economy that will doom Trump. The US hasn't put in any of the measures to protect ordinary people that we have, apart from a one-off $1200 payment that some people haven't even received. No furlough, no income support, no job protection, nothing. Unemployment may already be at Great Depression levels and will go higher, taking tens of millions off the healthcare provision tied to their employer.

    Unless Biden has a complete physical or mental meltdown before November (which is not impossible), Trump is finished.
    Thinking about the British and American economies, which is in a better position for a quick v shaped bounceback after corona? Is it:

    A. The American economy or

    B. The American economy

  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 187

    MrEd said:

    On topic and FPT

    On the US polls, they are all over the place - Quinnipac is +11 for Biden but there have been several other polls out today and yesterday, one showing +1 for Biden, 1 at +3, 1 at +5 and 1 at +8. Saying Trump is definitely in trouble because of the worst of the bunch might be looking at it through rose-tinted specs (if you hate Trump :smile: )

    Second, re Klobuchar as VP pick for Biden, one reason I see it as credible is that Joe Biden a few days back said he would stop the Keystone XL pipe coming through the US, which wouldn't go down too well in Minnesota given it strengthens the view the Democrats are too-pro environmental for a state where extraction is important. Having Klobuchar as the VP pick may be seen as a way of minimising the risk of Minnesota going Red whilst also helping Biden in the Midwest and without having someone as polarising as Whitmer on the ticket.

    Also, yesterday, somebody mentioned Maine, NH and Minnesota as states that could flip Red in 2020. Agree on the last two but, if you want two surprises for betting tips (and where you might get good odds when they appear given how they are seen as "safe" Blue states), look at,

    1. Virginia. The gap between Clinton and Trump last time was c. 5% with the Democrats below 50%. The Libertarians and McMullin got over 4% of the vote last time and there is a good chance Trump can squeeze at least some of that. Add in the furore over gun rights and abortion in the state, which might fire up the Republican base, it might not be insurmountable (especially if a Biden-Klobuchar combo doesn't fire up the African-American vote)

    2. Nevada. Gap last time was under 2.5% between Trump and Clinton. The Libertarians got 3.3% and again Trump may be able to squeeze some. Plus Biden didn't do so well amongst Hispanics in the primaries and there has been a small but noticeable shift to Trump / Republicans generally. A final point is that it is a state heavily dependent on tourism, conventions etc. With the Republicans being seen as the party of opening up and the Democrats of keeping a lockdown, that may swing the vote.

    Virginia? Last two polls had Biden in double figure lead of 10 and 12. And Biden fires up the African-American vote.
    (1) Memory serves me right (and it might be wrong), the polls in 2016 were also showing larger leads for Clinton in Virginia than it turned out;

    (2) Biden doesn't fire up the AA vote. He got lucky in SC because Jim Clyburn harnessed the vote rather than there was a mass movement for Biden. Yes, his ties with Obama helps but probably in the same way it helped Clinton in 16.

  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 14,537

    Foxy said:

    rkrkrk said:

    That's quite the gender gap in the US.

    Yep. The allegations against Biden vs the pussy grabber ain't much of a choice, but its only going one way.
    It's finely balanced but I guess denying that one is a pussy grabber just edges it over self confessed, proud pussy grabber.
    ... plus the tidal wave of demented fuckwittery/racism/corruption that Trump represents.
    It no longer matters whether something Trump says or does is particularly racist or stupid. He could come out and observe that the sky was looking rather cloudy and there would be an immediate volley of outraged and flabbergasted Tweets to the contrary, followed by a chorus of professorly rebuttals, followed by a series of solemn statements of opposing politicians and retired agency chiefs dolorously warning us all against believing this dangerous pseudo-scientific mumbo-jumbo.

    It is a particular skill of Trump's to get his opponents to behave as badly and idiotically as he does.
    Even weirder is Trumps ability to get hitherto sensible folk in the right to defend him.

    Even when he suggests injecting bleach they’re silent or ok with it. By any objective measure that is not a good idea.

    I guess it’s pure tribal loyalty and the allure of presidential power.

    This strange phenomena even effects people here.

    Trump truly brings back out odd behaviour.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 898
    The gender split in 2016 was:
    Female
    Clinton 54 - 41 Trump
    Male
    Clinton 41 - 52 Trump
    So women were +24 for Clinton compared to men.
    The poll numbers are:
    Female
    Biden 59 - 31 Trump
    Male
    Biden 41 - 48 Trump
    So women are now +35 for Biden compared to men - a much larger gender divide.

    However, in both cases the don't knows/others are much higher in the poll. There has to be a decent chance that many of these are shy Trump voters.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 11,028
    edited May 22
    kinabalu said:

    Good grief, I would place myself as slightly bearish on a Trumpton defeat but those numbers look absolutely awful for him.

    I also note some polling data from HYUFD on the previous thread, which again looks pretty dire for Trumpton.

    Perhaps @HYUFD and @kinabalu will be proved right after all and Trumpton will get his sorry arse kicked in November.

    I just think it's too good to be true, which might be colouring my judgement.

    Just hope he doesn't freak at the prospect of a thrashing and bomb China.

    The "Trump Toast" club atm is me, @Alistair and @Stocky.

    @HYUFD is an associate member - and very welcome to use the bar on a weekday - having always said if the Dems pick Sleepy they have a great chance.
    Trump's reputation as a bomber seems particularly unwarranted, given his failure to invade Syria (under the influence of his Russian handlers the story goes) has been a source many political attacks on him, and the only time many in the mainstream media and political circles actually warmed to him was when he lobbed some missiles in Syria's direction. Biden (as was Hillary before him) will be the far likelier candidate to spark conflict with a foreign power.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 10,386
    @MrEd

    PT - yes ok I will do the fiver with you. I'm in for lots already so why the devil not.

    Trump to lose. Evens. Winnings to charity of choice. Mine is Mermaids.
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 1,342

    Good grief, I would place myself as slightly bearish on a Trumpton defeat but those numbers look absolutely awful for him.

    I also note some polling data from HYUFD on the previous thread, which again looks pretty dire for Trumpton.

    Perhaps @HYUFD and @kinabalu will be proved right after all and Trumpton will get his sorry arse kicked in November.

    I just think it's too good to be true, which might be colouring my judgement.

    It's the economy that will doom Trump. The US hasn't put in any of the measures to protect ordinary people that we have, apart from a one-off $1200 payment that some people haven't even received. No furlough, no income support, no job protection, nothing. Unemployment may already be at Great Depression levels and will go higher, taking tens of millions off the healthcare provision tied to their employer.

    Unless Biden has a complete physical or mental meltdown before November (which is not impossible), Trump is finished.
    Thinking about the British and American economies, which is in a better position for a quick v shaped bounceback after corona? Is it:

    A. The American economy or

    B. The American economy

    You should be excited that we'll be able to test the theory of government crisis intervention vs. non-intervention in real life and compare results. The US is massively dynamic, but even dynamism can't do much to fix a bomb crater in the short term.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 19,837
    kinabalu said:

    Foxy said:

    rkrkrk said:

    That's quite the gender gap in the US.

    Yep. The allegations against Biden vs the pussy grabber ain't much of a choice, but its only going one way.
    It's finely balanced but I guess denying that one is a pussy grabber just edges it over self confessed, proud pussy grabber.
    The hope is that Biden at least feels bad about his unwanted forays and stopped offending at an earlier age. It's not the most inspiring of messages - can't see it going on a tee shirt - but it ought probably to be enough. In the land of the pussy grabbers the one ...
    Perhaps 'Joe was a only tit man' to the strains of Loudon Wainwright's no-longer-quite-appropriate ditty.

  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 4,231
    MrEd said:

    MrEd said:

    On topic and FPT

    On the US polls, they are all over the place - Quinnipac is +11 for Biden but there have been several other polls out today and yesterday, one showing +1 for Biden, 1 at +3, 1 at +5 and 1 at +8. Saying Trump is definitely in trouble because of the worst of the bunch might be looking at it through rose-tinted specs (if you hate Trump :smile: )

    Second, re Klobuchar as VP pick for Biden, one reason I see it as credible is that Joe Biden a few days back said he would stop the Keystone XL pipe coming through the US, which wouldn't go down too well in Minnesota given it strengthens the view the Democrats are too-pro environmental for a state where extraction is important. Having Klobuchar as the VP pick may be seen as a way of minimising the risk of Minnesota going Red whilst also helping Biden in the Midwest and without having someone as polarising as Whitmer on the ticket.

    Also, yesterday, somebody mentioned Maine, NH and Minnesota as states that could flip Red in 2020. Agree on the last two but, if you want two surprises for betting tips (and where you might get good odds when they appear given how they are seen as "safe" Blue states), look at,

    1. Virginia. The gap between Clinton and Trump last time was c. 5% with the Democrats below 50%. The Libertarians and McMullin got over 4% of the vote last time and there is a good chance Trump can squeeze at least some of that. Add in the furore over gun rights and abortion in the state, which might fire up the Republican base, it might not be insurmountable (especially if a Biden-Klobuchar combo doesn't fire up the African-American vote)

    2. Nevada. Gap last time was under 2.5% between Trump and Clinton. The Libertarians got 3.3% and again Trump may be able to squeeze some. Plus Biden didn't do so well amongst Hispanics in the primaries and there has been a small but noticeable shift to Trump / Republicans generally. A final point is that it is a state heavily dependent on tourism, conventions etc. With the Republicans being seen as the party of opening up and the Democrats of keeping a lockdown, that may swing the vote.

    Virginia? Last two polls had Biden in double figure lead of 10 and 12. And Biden fires up the African-American vote.
    (1) Memory serves me right (and it might be wrong), the polls in 2016 were also showing larger leads for Clinton in Virginia than it turned out;

    (2) Biden doesn't fire up the AA vote. He got lucky in SC because Jim Clyburn harnessed the vote rather than there was a mass movement for Biden. Yes, his ties with Obama helps but probably in the same way it helped Clinton in 16.

    It is my understanding that Biden polls much better than Clinton with the AA community. Hilary has a variety of issues against her, while Biden is seen as the loyal VP to Obama.
  • isamisam Posts: 32,009
    edited May 22

    Anyone taking very much notice of UK polling in the last couple of months has been foolish. It's a cartoon snapshot at the best of times. I wouldn't read much into the latest polling either.

    The next period promises to be stickier for the government in polling terms. The slumber party is over, and everyone needs to be turfed out with goodie bags when they're still grumpy. That doesn't sound like a recipe for bonhomie towards the government.

    I wouldn't read very much into that either.

    The polls now are as bad for the Government as the election result.

    All that has happened is that the gap got bigger after December when Corbyn had quit and they were selecting a new leader, and have reverted to the worst polls while Corbyn was leader just before the election now
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 71,989
    edited May 22
    kinabalu said:

    Good grief, I would place myself as slightly bearish on a Trumpton defeat but those numbers look absolutely awful for him.

    I also note some polling data from HYUFD on the previous thread, which again looks pretty dire for Trumpton.

    Perhaps @HYUFD and @kinabalu will be proved right after all and Trumpton will get his sorry arse kicked in November.

    I just think it's too good to be true, which might be colouring my judgement.

    Just hope he doesn't freak at the prospect of a thrashing and bomb China.

    The "Trump Toast" club atm is me, @Alistair and @Stocky.

    @HYUFD is an associate member - and very welcome to use the bar on a weekday - having always said if the Dems pick Sleepy they have a great chance.
    I think Trump could lose to Biden certainly but I don't think he is toast either, my gut says it will be the closest US election since 2000
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 10,386

    kinabalu said:

    Good grief, I would place myself as slightly bearish on a Trumpton defeat but those numbers look absolutely awful for him.

    I also note some polling data from HYUFD on the previous thread, which again looks pretty dire for Trumpton.

    Perhaps @HYUFD and @kinabalu will be proved right after all and Trumpton will get his sorry arse kicked in November.

    I just think it's too good to be true, which might be colouring my judgement.

    Just hope he doesn't freak at the prospect of a thrashing and bomb China.

    The "Trump Toast" club atm is me, @Alistair and @Stocky.

    @HYUFD is an associate member - and very welcome to use the bar on a weekday - having always said if the Dems pick Sleepy they have a great chance.
    Trump's reputation as a bomber seems particularly unwarranted, given his failure to invade Syria (under the influence of his Russian handlers the story goes) has been a source many political attacks on him, and the only time many in the mainstream media and political circles actually warmed to him was when he lobbed some missiles in Syria's direction. Biden (as was Hillary before him) will be the far likelier candidate to spark conflict with a foreign power.
    Yes. But it takes a very special kind of person to start a war purely as a last desperate throw of the dice when polls say he is about to lose an election. IMO, Donald J Trump is such a person. Although I think others would probably find a way to stop him.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 71,989
    edited May 22

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    rkrkrk said:

    That's quite the gender gap in the US.

    Yep. The allegations against Biden vs the pussy grabber ain't much of a choice, but its only going one way.
    Has that been proved or is it just an allegation?
    It's an allegation.

    If it was proven, he would be toast, I think.
    Certainly no evidence of harming Joe in the polls.
    Hmmm... I wonder what the hypothetical Dem candidate I outline before would be doing in the polls?

    Imagine, say, Biden but 45, verbally articulate and without the allegations.

    Or is the vote behind him just NeverTrump expanding?
    To be fair the only candidate to beat an incumbent president after only one term of his party in the White House since WW2 was 69 when Reagan beat Carter in 1980
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 59,312
    MrEd said:


    (1) Memory serves me right (and it might be wrong), the polls in 2016 were also showing larger leads for Clinton in Virginia than it turned out;

    WRONG

    https://ig.ft.com/us-elections/virginia-polls/

    Clinton 47.3; Trump 42.3; Johnson 4.1%; Stein 1.2%.

    Actual

    Clinton 49.7%; Trump 44.4%.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 10,386
    edited May 22

    Foxy said:

    rkrkrk said:

    That's quite the gender gap in the US.

    Yep. The allegations against Biden vs the pussy grabber ain't much of a choice, but its only going one way.
    It's finely balanced but I guess denying that one is a pussy grabber just edges it over self confessed, proud pussy grabber.
    ... plus the tidal wave of demented fuckwittery/racism/corruption that Trump represents.
    It no longer matters whether something Trump says or does is particularly racist or stupid. He could come out and observe that the sky was looking rather cloudy and there would be an immediate volley of outraged and flabbergasted Tweets to the contrary, followed by a chorus of professorly rebuttals, followed by a series of solemn statements of opposing politicians and retired agency chiefs dolorously warning us all against believing this dangerous pseudo-scientific mumbo-jumbo.

    It is a particular skill of Trump's to get his opponents to behave as badly and idiotically as he does.
    He brings out the worst in everybody, friend and foe alike. It's a remarkable gift.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 1,146

    Good grief, I would place myself as slightly bearish on a Trumpton defeat but those numbers look absolutely awful for him.

    I also note some polling data from HYUFD on the previous thread, which again looks pretty dire for Trumpton.

    Perhaps @HYUFD and @kinabalu will be proved right after all and Trumpton will get his sorry arse kicked in November.

    I just think it's too good to be true, which might be colouring my judgement.

    It's the economy that will doom Trump. The US hasn't put in any of the measures to protect ordinary people that we have, apart from a one-off $1200 payment that some people haven't even received. No furlough, no income support, no job protection, nothing. Unemployment may already be at Great Depression levels and will go higher, taking tens of millions off the healthcare provision tied to their employer.

    Unless Biden has a complete physical or mental meltdown before November (which is not impossible), Trump is finished.
    Thinking about the British and American economies, which is in a better position for a quick v shaped bounceback after corona? Is it:

    A. The American economy or

    B. The American economy

    You should be excited that we'll be able to test the theory of government crisis intervention vs. non-intervention in real life and compare results. The US is massively dynamic, but even dynamism can't do much to fix a bomb crater in the short term.
    No quite the opposite. Economic dynamism is the only thing that can fix it. Just like it is economic dynamism, and not state intervention, that has seen absolute poverty in the third world drop like a stone in recent decades.

    Growth and prosperity is all. Sunak has laid that aside. The price we will pay, as today's completely horrendous economic numbers show, will be enormous. Health, education, society, you name it.

  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 5,533
    edited May 22
    Lord Sumption and Peter Hitchens have also said they would be happy to do this.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 2,613
    kinabalu said:

    @MrEd

    PT - yes ok I will do the fiver with you. I'm in for lots already so why the devil not.

    Trump to lose. Evens. Winnings to charity of choice. Mine is Mermaids.

    Mermaids FFS. Now I hope you lose (but then I lose my anti-Trump bets - what a quandary).
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 45,909
    edited May 22
    What until all those furloughed workers currently enjoying days hanging out at parks and beaches find out that there is no job for them to go back to in September.

    Government approval ratings will go through the floor, as people will be screaming from the rooftops they never knew that this was likely and now out of cash, and very difficult to find new employment.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 19,837
    Andy_JS said:

    Lord Sumption has also said he would be happy to do this.
    Chuck in Tobes and Brendan and it's worst pub crawl evah.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 33,462

    Good grief, I would place myself as slightly bearish on a Trumpton defeat but those numbers look absolutely awful for him.

    I also note some polling data from HYUFD on the previous thread, which again looks pretty dire for Trumpton.

    Perhaps @HYUFD and @kinabalu will be proved right after all and Trumpton will get his sorry arse kicked in November.

    I just think it's too good to be true, which might be colouring my judgement.

    It's the economy that will doom Trump. The US hasn't put in any of the measures to protect ordinary people that we have, apart from a one-off $1200 payment that some people haven't even received. No furlough, no income support, no job protection, nothing. Unemployment may already be at Great Depression levels and will go higher, taking tens of millions off the healthcare provision tied to their employer.

    Unless Biden has a complete physical or mental meltdown before November (which is not impossible), Trump is finished.
    Thinking about the British and American economies, which is in a better position for a quick v shaped bounceback after corona? Is it:

    A. The American economy or

    B. The American economy

    You should be excited that we'll be able to test the theory of government crisis intervention vs. non-intervention in real life and compare results. The US is massively dynamic, but even dynamism can't do much to fix a bomb crater in the short term.
    No quite the opposite. Economic dynamism is the only thing that can fix it. Just like it is economic dynamism, and not state intervention, that has seen absolute poverty in the third world drop like a stone in recent decades.

    Growth and prosperity is all. Sunak has laid that aside. The price we will pay, as today's completely horrendous economic numbers show, will be enormous. Health, education, society, you name it.

    I believe in economic dynamism as much as anyone else but you can't be dynamic while the economy is shut down. And the economy will be shut down with or without a lockdown (the public will determine that if the virus is wild).

    It's like suggesting we should be economically dynamic during the Blitz. We need to win the war then be dynamic.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 898
    Looking at the Biden numbers compared to Clinton's in 2016, he's only up with women and only by +5. He's not up at all with men.

    That's really surprising. I'd put down some of the blame for Clinton's defeat to a degree of misogyny, and Biden is supposed to have greater appeal to what might be loosely termed the "bloke" vote, so you'd expect him to be up with men - all other things being equal.

    What's that about?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 32,966
    Andy_JS said:

    Lord Sumption and Peter Hitchens have also said they would be happy to do this.
    Boris Johnson's dad never left.
  • Fysics_TeacherFysics_Teacher Posts: 2,217

    *Some* Level 5 biohazard suit systems have the ability to ingest fluids, while suited up. Special port, with straw etc....
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 1,146
    edited May 22
    Andy_JS said:

    Lord Sumption and Peter Hitchens have also said they would be happy to do this.
    Along with the Oxford epidemiology Professor Sunetra Gupta.

    Hodges, Sumption, Hitchens, Gupta.

    Interesting dinner party
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 10,386

    kinabalu said:

    Good grief, I would place myself as slightly bearish on a Trumpton defeat but those numbers look absolutely awful for him.

    I also note some polling data from HYUFD on the previous thread, which again looks pretty dire for Trumpton.

    Perhaps @HYUFD and @kinabalu will be proved right after all and Trumpton will get his sorry arse kicked in November.

    I just think it's too good to be true, which might be colouring my judgement.

    Just hope he doesn't freak at the prospect of a thrashing and bomb China.

    The "Trump Toast" club atm is me, @Alistair and @Stocky.

    @HYUFD is an associate member - and very welcome to use the bar on a weekday - having always said if the Dems pick Sleepy they have a great chance.
    I remain hopeful, but unconvinced. Trump is a SOB and he will stop at nothing. This is going to be utterly brutal.
    It will be a horrible election but IMO he cannot win. He's unelectable.

    I also think (post defeat) there might need to be "special measures" to physically evict him.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 32,966

    Andy_JS said:

    Lord Sumption has also said he would be happy to do this.
    Chuck in Tobes and Brendan and it's worst pub crawl evah.
    They'll be accompanied by armed militia from Missouri.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 45,909
    edited May 22
    In Pakistan, people packed into a mosque to attend prayers. Daily prayers and evening congregations have been allowed during Ramadan, according to the AFP news agency.

    Shakes head...Hopefully British muslims are more sensible during Eid over the weekend.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 71,989
    edited May 22

    Looking at the Biden numbers compared to Clinton's in 2016, he's only up with women and only by +5. He's not up at all with men.

    That's really surprising. I'd put down some of the blame for Clinton's defeat to a degree of misogyny, and Biden is supposed to have greater appeal to what might be loosely termed the "bloke" vote, so you'd expect him to be up with men - all other things being equal.

    What's that about?

    Trump beat Hillary by 11% with men in 2016, so if Trump now only leads Biden by 7% with men then Biden has cut the gap by 4%

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_presidential_election
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 1,146

    In Pakistan, people packed into a mosque to attend prayers. Daily prayers and evening congregations have been allowed during Ramadan, according to the AFP news agency.

    Shakes head...Hopefully British muslims are more sensible over the weekend.

    How's their 'R '??
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 11,028
    Jonathan said:

    Foxy said:

    rkrkrk said:

    That's quite the gender gap in the US.

    Yep. The allegations against Biden vs the pussy grabber ain't much of a choice, but its only going one way.
    It's finely balanced but I guess denying that one is a pussy grabber just edges it over self confessed, proud pussy grabber.
    ... plus the tidal wave of demented fuckwittery/racism/corruption that Trump represents.
    It no longer matters whether something Trump says or does is particularly racist or stupid. He could come out and observe that the sky was looking rather cloudy and there would be an immediate volley of outraged and flabbergasted Tweets to the contrary, followed by a chorus of professorly rebuttals, followed by a series of solemn statements of opposing politicians and retired agency chiefs dolorously warning us all against believing this dangerous pseudo-scientific mumbo-jumbo.

    It is a particular skill of Trump's to get his opponents to behave as badly and idiotically as he does.
    Even weirder is Trumps ability to get hitherto sensible folk in the right to defend him.

    Even when he suggests injecting bleach they’re silent or ok with it. By any objective measure that is not a good idea.

    I guess it’s pure tribal loyalty and the allure of presidential power.

    This strange phenomena even effects people here.

    Trump truly brings back out odd behaviour.
    I believe that he mused that it would be good if there were a way to 'inject disinfectant'. You may find this shocking, but clearly not shocking enough, or you wouldn't have felt the need to change the word to 'bleach'. Several more (including Nicola Sturgeon in her presser) clearly felt that even this wasn't shocking enough, so she solemnly warned us against 'inGESTing cleaning products'. In doing so, she actually introduced the concept of swallowing bleach to the public, not Trump.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,097

    Andy_JS said:

    Lord Sumption has also said he would be happy to do this.
    Chuck in Tobes and Brendan and it's worst pub crawl evah.
    Is there anything stopping us giving them a compulsory lock-in?
  • Fysics_TeacherFysics_Teacher Posts: 2,217

    Jonathan said:

    Foxy said:

    rkrkrk said:

    That's quite the gender gap in the US.

    Yep. The allegations against Biden vs the pussy grabber ain't much of a choice, but its only going one way.
    It's finely balanced but I guess denying that one is a pussy grabber just edges it over self confessed, proud pussy grabber.
    ... plus the tidal wave of demented fuckwittery/racism/corruption that Trump represents.
    It no longer matters whether something Trump says or does is particularly racist or stupid. He could come out and observe that the sky was looking rather cloudy and there would be an immediate volley of outraged and flabbergasted Tweets to the contrary, followed by a chorus of professorly rebuttals, followed by a series of solemn statements of opposing politicians and retired agency chiefs dolorously warning us all against believing this dangerous pseudo-scientific mumbo-jumbo.

    It is a particular skill of Trump's to get his opponents to behave as badly and idiotically as he does.
    Even weirder is Trumps ability to get hitherto sensible folk in the right to defend him.

    Even when he suggests injecting bleach they’re silent or ok with it. By any objective measure that is not a good idea.

    I guess it’s pure tribal loyalty and the allure of presidential power.

    This strange phenomena even effects people here.

    Trump truly brings back out odd behaviour.
    I believe that he mused that it would be good if there were a way to 'inject disinfectant'. You may find this shocking, but clearly not shocking enough, or you wouldn't have felt the need to change the word to 'bleach'. Several more (including Nicola Sturgeon in her presser) clearly felt that even this wasn't shocking enough, so she solemnly warned us against 'inGESTing cleaning products'. In doing so, she actually introduced the concept of swallowing bleach to the public, not Trump.
    You think inJECTing is better than inJESTing???
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 15,656

    Jonathan said:

    Foxy said:

    rkrkrk said:

    That's quite the gender gap in the US.

    Yep. The allegations against Biden vs the pussy grabber ain't much of a choice, but its only going one way.
    It's finely balanced but I guess denying that one is a pussy grabber just edges it over self confessed, proud pussy grabber.
    ... plus the tidal wave of demented fuckwittery/racism/corruption that Trump represents.
    It no longer matters whether something Trump says or does is particularly racist or stupid. He could come out and observe that the sky was looking rather cloudy and there would be an immediate volley of outraged and flabbergasted Tweets to the contrary, followed by a chorus of professorly rebuttals, followed by a series of solemn statements of opposing politicians and retired agency chiefs dolorously warning us all against believing this dangerous pseudo-scientific mumbo-jumbo.

    It is a particular skill of Trump's to get his opponents to behave as badly and idiotically as he does.
    Even weirder is Trumps ability to get hitherto sensible folk in the right to defend him.

    Even when he suggests injecting bleach they’re silent or ok with it. By any objective measure that is not a good idea.

    I guess it’s pure tribal loyalty and the allure of presidential power.

    This strange phenomena even effects people here.

    Trump truly brings back out odd behaviour.
    I believe that he mused that it would be good if there were a way to 'inject disinfectant'. You may find this shocking, but clearly not shocking enough, or you wouldn't have felt the need to change the word to 'bleach'. Several more (including Nicola Sturgeon in her presser) clearly felt that even this wasn't shocking enough, so she solemnly warned us against 'inGESTing cleaning products'. In doing so, she actually introduced the concept of swallowing bleach to the public, not Trump.
    So which disinfectant do you think should be injected?

    There is already a name for this procedure. It is called embalming, but customarily used after death, not to induce it...
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 2,105

    Good grief, I would place myself as slightly bearish on a Trumpton defeat but those numbers look absolutely awful for him.

    I also note some polling data from HYUFD on the previous thread, which again looks pretty dire for Trumpton.

    Perhaps @HYUFD and @kinabalu will be proved right after all and Trumpton will get his sorry arse kicked in November.

    I just think it's too good to be true, which might be colouring my judgement.

    It's the economy that will doom Trump. The US hasn't put in any of the measures to protect ordinary people that we have, apart from a one-off $1200 payment that some people haven't even received. No furlough, no income support, no job protection, nothing. Unemployment may already be at Great Depression levels and will go higher, taking tens of millions off the healthcare provision tied to their employer.

    Unless Biden has a complete physical or mental meltdown before November (which is not impossible), Trump is finished.
    Thinking about the British and American economies, which is in a better position for a quick v shaped bounceback after corona? Is it:

    A. The American economy or

    B. The American economy

    American economy: unemployment up to 38.6 million
    UK economy: unemployment up to 2.1 million

    On a per capita comparison, the US figures here would mean 7.8 million unemployed.
    We have many people furloughed who can just resume their previous jobs the moment the conditions allow. In the US, they're unemployed, spending far less right now, and in a far worse position to resume (both workers and employers).

    You have a different definition of better positioned than we do.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 14,669
    edited May 22
    Over on twitter i see someone has responded to a Matt Hancock tweet with.

    "Currently 91 likes for your tweet Matt. Or more accurately 182 if you use the number of eyes."

    I suppose PB Tories would be happy with reporting 910 ie the 910 fingers that were potentially involved.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 3,162
    Andy_JS said:

    Lord Sumption and Peter Hitchens have also said they would be happy to do this.
    I'll take one for the team and throw my hat into the ring.
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 2,105

    Good grief, I would place myself as slightly bearish on a Trumpton defeat but those numbers look absolutely awful for him.

    I also note some polling data from HYUFD on the previous thread, which again looks pretty dire for Trumpton.

    Perhaps @HYUFD and @kinabalu will be proved right after all and Trumpton will get his sorry arse kicked in November.

    I just think it's too good to be true, which might be colouring my judgement.

    It's the economy that will doom Trump. The US hasn't put in any of the measures to protect ordinary people that we have, apart from a one-off $1200 payment that some people haven't even received. No furlough, no income support, no job protection, nothing. Unemployment may already be at Great Depression levels and will go higher, taking tens of millions off the healthcare provision tied to their employer.

    Unless Biden has a complete physical or mental meltdown before November (which is not impossible), Trump is finished.
    Thinking about the British and American economies, which is in a better position for a quick v shaped bounceback after corona? Is it:

    A. The American economy or

    B. The American economy

    You should be excited that we'll be able to test the theory of government crisis intervention vs. non-intervention in real life and compare results. The US is massively dynamic, but even dynamism can't do much to fix a bomb crater in the short term.
    No quite the opposite. Economic dynamism is the only thing that can fix it. Just like it is economic dynamism, and not state intervention, that has seen absolute poverty in the third world drop like a stone in recent decades.

    Growth and prosperity is all. Sunak has laid that aside. The price we will pay, as today's completely horrendous economic numbers show, will be enormous. Health, education, society, you name it.

    I believe in economic dynamism as much as anyone else but you can't be dynamic while the economy is shut down. And the economy will be shut down with or without a lockdown (the public will determine that if the virus is wild).

    It's like suggesting we should be economically dynamic during the Blitz. We need to win the war then be dynamic.
    You're arguing with a fanatic.
    Explaining the economics didn't shift his fixation.
    Pointing out the overwhelming view of those who actually know what they're talking about didn't shift his view.
    Numbers, facts, evidence don't shift his view.

    The only information allowed is that which might confirm his view. That is elevated, privileged, and may not be subject to any testing or confirmation because it must be right.

    It's like Alistair Haimes and Peter Hitchen had a child together.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 187
    Pulpstar said:

    MrEd said:


    (1) Memory serves me right (and it might be wrong), the polls in 2016 were also showing larger leads for Clinton in Virginia than it turned out;

    WRONG

    https://ig.ft.com/us-elections/virginia-polls/

    Clinton 47.3; Trump 42.3; Johnson 4.1%; Stein 1.2%.

    Actual

    Clinton 49.7%; Trump 44.4%.
    Correct I am wrong. However (partially covering my a*se), according to that chart, that gap narrowed sharply in the last four weeks by around 4%. Before October, only one poll listed there had Trump above 40%
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 10,386

    kinabalu said:


    Have you ever read - "They Thought They Were Free: The Germans" ?

    Looks worth reading per a Google. Had not heard of book or author.

    What's the nutshell?
    It's a very low level study of "Why it happened?". Also - "Where they went after 45".

    One aspect is - "Decent*" people don't need to question their actions. As long as you are doing what the other nice people are doing, its all ticketybo. Outsource your moral compass.....

    * Self defined, of course.
    That is definitely something all must be on guard against. Similarly, how people can get desensitized. They can lose their facility to be shocked by something objectively appalling. Lose their ability to say, "this is unacceptable and therefore we will NOT accept it". If Donald Trump were to win again in Nov - which he won't - America as a nation would have demonstrated exactly that moral torpitude.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 11,028

    Jonathan said:

    Foxy said:

    rkrkrk said:

    That's quite the gender gap in the US.

    Yep. The allegations against Biden vs the pussy grabber ain't much of a choice, but its only going one way.
    It's finely balanced but I guess denying that one is a pussy grabber just edges it over self confessed, proud pussy grabber.
    ... plus the tidal wave of demented fuckwittery/racism/corruption that Trump represents.
    It no longer matters whether something Trump says or does is particularly racist or stupid. He could come out and observe that the sky was looking rather cloudy and there would be an immediate volley of outraged and flabbergasted Tweets to the contrary, followed by a chorus of professorly rebuttals, followed by a series of solemn statements of opposing politicians and retired agency chiefs dolorously warning us all against believing this dangerous pseudo-scientific mumbo-jumbo.

    It is a particular skill of Trump's to get his opponents to behave as badly and idiotically as he does.
    Even weirder is Trumps ability to get hitherto sensible folk in the right to defend him.

    Even when he suggests injecting bleach they’re silent or ok with it. By any objective measure that is not a good idea.

    I guess it’s pure tribal loyalty and the allure of presidential power.

    This strange phenomena even effects people here.

    Trump truly brings back out odd behaviour.
    I believe that he mused that it would be good if there were a way to 'inject disinfectant'. You may find this shocking, but clearly not shocking enough, or you wouldn't have felt the need to change the word to 'bleach'. Several more (including Nicola Sturgeon in her presser) clearly felt that even this wasn't shocking enough, so she solemnly warned us against 'inGESTing cleaning products'. In doing so, she actually introduced the concept of swallowing bleach to the public, not Trump.
    You think inJECTing is better than inJESTing???
    I think injecting can only be done by a doctor, so this is classed as a medical musing. Perhaps distracting and inadvisable for a politician to do, but not readily harmful. Ingesting a publicly available product is something we can all do, so to recommend that (if he had done) would be by some way more damaging, yes.
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 3,544
    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Good grief, I would place myself as slightly bearish on a Trumpton defeat but those numbers look absolutely awful for him.

    I also note some polling data from HYUFD on the previous thread, which again looks pretty dire for Trumpton.

    Perhaps @HYUFD and @kinabalu will be proved right after all and Trumpton will get his sorry arse kicked in November.

    I just think it's too good to be true, which might be colouring my judgement.

    Just hope he doesn't freak at the prospect of a thrashing and bomb China.

    The "Trump Toast" club atm is me, @Alistair and @Stocky.

    @HYUFD is an associate member - and very welcome to use the bar on a weekday - having always said if the Dems pick Sleepy they have a great chance.
    I remain hopeful, but unconvinced. Trump is a SOB and he will stop at nothing. This is going to be utterly brutal.
    It will be a horrible election but IMO he cannot win. He's unelectable.

    I also think (post defeat) there might need to be "special measures" to physically evict him.
    I think Biden would win comfortably if the election were tomorrow but a lot can happen between now and November. I honestly dread to think what Trump will do over the next 5 months and if he loses he is going to be screaming voter fraud and inciting his moronic core to civil strife. Who would have believed that the mighty USA would come to this?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 32,966

    What until all those furloughed workers currently enjoying days hanging out at parks and beaches find out that there is no job for them to go back to in September.

    Government approval ratings will go through the floor, as people will be screaming from the rooftops they never knew that this was likely and now out of cash, and very difficult to find new employment.

    terrifying article of the week:


    Britain is sliding into a deflationary death spiral
    Negative interest rates on Government debt are a harbinger of economic destruction on a vast scale

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/05/22/britain-sliding-deflationary-death-spiral/
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 187
    kinabalu said:

    @MrEd

    PT - yes ok I will do the fiver with you. I'm in for lots already so why the devil not.

    Trump to lose. Evens. Winnings to charity of choice. Mine is Mermaids.

    @Kinablu

    Done. I will donate mine to All Dogs Matter. It's a small charity and I doubt many people know it but it campaigns against the Breed Specific Legislation part of the Dangerous Dogs Act and where people get the Police knocking on their doors and seizing their pits because PC Plod thinks it's a pitbull
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 19,091
    Officially back to work on the 8th of June. It's been nice to get paid for 6 weeks to stay home but I'll be glad to be back to doing something all day. Plans are to have the office at 25% capacity by September and 50% by November. My company is also going to pay for all 1,200 of us to have antibody tests if the the government doesn't have a solution available by the end of June.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 4,877
    Scott_xP said:
    What's the air bridge idea? I'm sure it's shit and/or nonsense but it appears to have passed by me.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 46,465
    On travelling, If there really is a 20 minute antigen test, can't that be done at the airport?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 59,312
    MrEd said:

    Pulpstar said:

    MrEd said:


    (1) Memory serves me right (and it might be wrong), the polls in 2016 were also showing larger leads for Clinton in Virginia than it turned out;

    WRONG

    https://ig.ft.com/us-elections/virginia-polls/

    Clinton 47.3; Trump 42.3; Johnson 4.1%; Stein 1.2%.

    Actual

    Clinton 49.7%; Trump 44.4%.
    Correct I am wrong. However (partially covering my a*se), according to that chart, that gap narrowed sharply in the last four weeks by around 4%. Before October, only one poll listed there had Trump above 40%
    VA always looks good for the GOP early on in the night, then the DC suburbs and Richmond start reporting.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 28,303

    HYUFD said:

    The actual voting intention and preferred PM polling remains very good for Boris and the Tories.


    I'm guessing that the Scotch straw clutchers predicting an SKS inspired recovery for Lab in Scotland based on *one* subsample will be avoiding this poll like the plague.
    Imminent collapse due soon given their rising popularity it seems.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 45,909
    edited May 22
    MaxPB said:

    Officially back to work on the 8th of June. It's been nice to get paid for 6 weeks to stay home but I'll be glad to be back to doing something all day. Plans are to have the office at 25% capacity by September and 50% by November. My company is also going to pay for all 1,200 of us to have antibody tests if the the government doesn't have a solution available by the end of June.

    Does that mean 25% will do 5 days a week or that all staff will just do 1 or 2 days a week in office?
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 13,895

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    rkrkrk said:

    That's quite the gender gap in the US.

    Yep. The allegations against Biden vs the pussy grabber ain't much of a choice, but its only going one way.
    Has that been proved or is it just an allegation?
    It's an allegation.

    If it was proven, he would be toast, I think.
    Certainly no evidence of harming Joe in the polls.
    Hmmm... I wonder what the hypothetical Dem candidate I outline before would be doing in the polls?

    Imagine, say, Biden but 45, verbally articulate and without the allegations.

    Or is the vote behind him just NeverTrump expanding?
    I don't think you get a Dem without allegations, if there aren't any they'll make some up, and rightly or wrongly they'll be believed by exactly the same people who believe the Biden ones.

    I also think you need to account for Biden actually having some appeal with older, lower-education voters that Hypothetical Generic Democrat wouldn't. He's not the candidate I'd have picked but he really does seem to reach some voters who aren't obvious to Very Online people.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 11,028
    Foxy said:

    Jonathan said:

    Foxy said:

    rkrkrk said:

    That's quite the gender gap in the US.

    Yep. The allegations against Biden vs the pussy grabber ain't much of a choice, but its only going one way.
    It's finely balanced but I guess denying that one is a pussy grabber just edges it over self confessed, proud pussy grabber.
    ... plus the tidal wave of demented fuckwittery/racism/corruption that Trump represents.
    It no longer matters whether something Trump says or does is particularly racist or stupid. He could come out and observe that the sky was looking rather cloudy and there would be an immediate volley of outraged and flabbergasted Tweets to the contrary, followed by a chorus of professorly rebuttals, followed by a series of solemn statements of opposing politicians and retired agency chiefs dolorously warning us all against believing this dangerous pseudo-scientific mumbo-jumbo.

    It is a particular skill of Trump's to get his opponents to behave as badly and idiotically as he does.
    Even weirder is Trumps ability to get hitherto sensible folk in the right to defend him.

    Even when he suggests injecting bleach they’re silent or ok with it. By any objective measure that is not a good idea.

    I guess it’s pure tribal loyalty and the allure of presidential power.

    This strange phenomena even effects people here.

    Trump truly brings back out odd behaviour.
    I believe that he mused that it would be good if there were a way to 'inject disinfectant'. You may find this shocking, but clearly not shocking enough, or you wouldn't have felt the need to change the word to 'bleach'. Several more (including Nicola Sturgeon in her presser) clearly felt that even this wasn't shocking enough, so she solemnly warned us against 'inGESTing cleaning products'. In doing so, she actually introduced the concept of swallowing bleach to the public, not Trump.
    So which disinfectant do you think should be injected?

    There is already a name for this procedure. It is called embalming, but customarily used after death, not to induce it...
    I have never recommended it, though in the ensuing PB discussion on it I found a preliminary study from the 1920's that showed promise in injecting hydrogen peroxide. And indeed if we could inject an all purpose disinfectant product without injury to the body, it would certainly be a good first line treatment. Imagine if we had to develop a new topical disinfectant every time there was a new disease. It doesn't bear thinking about.
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 1,342
    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:


    Have you ever read - "They Thought They Were Free: The Germans" ?

    Looks worth reading per a Google. Had not heard of book or author.

    What's the nutshell?
    It's a very low level study of "Why it happened?". Also - "Where they went after 45".

    One aspect is - "Decent*" people don't need to question their actions. As long as you are doing what the other nice people are doing, its all ticketybo. Outsource your moral compass.....

    * Self defined, of course.
    That is definitely something all must be on guard against. Similarly, how people can get desensitized. They can lose their facility to be shocked by something objectively appalling. Lose their ability to say, "this is unacceptable and therefore we will NOT accept it". If Donald Trump were to win again in Nov - which he won't - America as a nation would have demonstrated exactly that moral torpitude.
    Sad to find that 'torpitude' already exists as a synonym for 'torpor', otherwise it would be a perfect blend of 'torpor' and 'turpitude'.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 1,146

    Good grief, I would place myself as slightly bearish on a Trumpton defeat but those numbers look absolutely awful for him.

    I also note some polling data from HYUFD on the previous thread, which again looks pretty dire for Trumpton.

    Perhaps @HYUFD and @kinabalu will be proved right after all and Trumpton will get his sorry arse kicked in November.

    I just think it's too good to be true, which might be colouring my judgement.

    It's the economy that will doom Trump. The US hasn't put in any of the measures to protect ordinary people that we have, apart from a one-off $1200 payment that some people haven't even received. No furlough, no income support, no job protection, nothing. Unemployment may already be at Great Depression levels and will go higher, taking tens of millions off the healthcare provision tied to their employer.

    Unless Biden has a complete physical or mental meltdown before November (which is not impossible), Trump is finished.
    Thinking about the British and American economies, which is in a better position for a quick v shaped bounceback after corona? Is it:

    A. The American economy or

    B. The American economy

    You should be excited that we'll be able to test the theory of government crisis intervention vs. non-intervention in real life and compare results. The US is massively dynamic, but even dynamism can't do much to fix a bomb crater in the short term.
    No quite the opposite. Economic dynamism is the only thing that can fix it. Just like it is economic dynamism, and not state intervention, that has seen absolute poverty in the third world drop like a stone in recent decades.

    Growth and prosperity is all. Sunak has laid that aside. The price we will pay, as today's completely horrendous economic numbers show, will be enormous. Health, education, society, you name it.

    I believe in economic dynamism as much as anyone else but you can't be dynamic while the economy is shut down. And the economy will be shut down with or without a lockdown (the public will determine that if the virus is wild).

    It's like suggesting we should be economically dynamic during the Blitz. We need to win the war then be dynamic.
    You're arguing with a fanatic.
    Explaining the economics didn't shift his fixation.
    Pointing out the overwhelming view of those who actually know what they're talking about didn't shift his view.
    Numbers, facts, evidence don't shift his view.

    The only information allowed is that which might confirm his view. That is elevated, privileged, and may not be subject to any testing or confirmation because it must be right.

    It's like Alistair Haimes and Peter Hitchen had a child together.
    The fanatic is you.

    Long lockdown MUST be right. It MUST be. So must 'R'

    Whatever the economic data. However rubbished Ferguson has been. Whatever the Oxford Epidemiologists think about its complete worthlessness.

    It must be right,because if it isn't a person who considers himself as intelligent as you consider yourself to be is in fact an absolute fool.

    Long lockdown is your religion, and guess what, there is no god.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 2,327
    Dura_Ace said:

    What's the air bridge idea? I'm sure it's shit and/or nonsense but it appears to have passed by me.

    As I understand it, they hope to find some other country willing to waive quarantine, and people can freely fly between them.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 32,966
    Dura_Ace said:

    Scott_xP said:
    What's the air bridge idea? I'm sure it's shit and/or nonsense but it appears to have passed by me.
    Johnson to see Trump? Madness. I'm sure there's nothing like a spot of air travel and jet lag to help in the recovery from a major virus attack.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 32,966
    Dura_Ace said:

    Scott_xP said:
    What's the air bridge idea? I'm sure it's shit and/or nonsense but it appears to have passed by me.
    It's like the bridge to Ireland scheme.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 13,895
    MrEd said:

    Pulpstar said:

    MrEd said:


    (1) Memory serves me right (and it might be wrong), the polls in 2016 were also showing larger leads for Clinton in Virginia than it turned out;

    WRONG

    https://ig.ft.com/us-elections/virginia-polls/

    Clinton 47.3; Trump 42.3; Johnson 4.1%; Stein 1.2%.

    Actual

    Clinton 49.7%; Trump 44.4%.
    Correct I am wrong. However (partially covering my a*se), according to that chart, that gap narrowed sharply in the last four weeks by around 4%. Before October, only one poll listed there had Trump above 40%
    More like the last 10 days, see the RCP graph:
    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/va/virginia_trump_vs_clinton-5542.html#polls

    And it declined everywhere at that point, mainly thanks to the Comey letter:
    https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-comey-letter-probably-cost-clinton-the-election/
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 2,221
    Dura_Ace said:

    Scott_xP said:
    What's the air bridge idea? I'm sure it's shit and/or nonsense but it appears to have passed by me.
    It's the bastard offspring of the Boris island airport and the garden bridge. The idea is to piss £50 million up the wall on something that nobody wants and/or is physically impossible.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 46,465

    Dura_Ace said:

    Scott_xP said:
    What's the air bridge idea? I'm sure it's shit and/or nonsense but it appears to have passed by me.
    It's the bastard offspring of the Boris island airport and the garden bridge. The idea is to piss £50 million up the wall on something that nobody wants and/or is physically impossible.
    I think you are thinking about the wrong thing. It was to have less restrictions on travel between countries with low infection rates.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 5,182
    OllyT said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Good grief, I would place myself as slightly bearish on a Trumpton defeat but those numbers look absolutely awful for him.

    I also note some polling data from HYUFD on the previous thread, which again looks pretty dire for Trumpton.

    Perhaps @HYUFD and @kinabalu will be proved right after all and Trumpton will get his sorry arse kicked in November.

    I just think it's too good to be true, which might be colouring my judgement.

    Just hope he doesn't freak at the prospect of a thrashing and bomb China.

    The "Trump Toast" club atm is me, @Alistair and @Stocky.

    @HYUFD is an associate member - and very welcome to use the bar on a weekday - having always said if the Dems pick Sleepy they have a great chance.
    I remain hopeful, but unconvinced. Trump is a SOB and he will stop at nothing. This is going to be utterly brutal.
    It will be a horrible election but IMO he cannot win. He's unelectable.

    I also think (post defeat) there might need to be "special measures" to physically evict him.
    I think Biden would win comfortably if the election were tomorrow but a lot can happen between now and November. I honestly dread to think what Trump will do over the next 5 months and if he loses he is going to be screaming voter fraud and inciting his moronic core to civil strife. Who would have believed that the mighty USA would come to this?
    Hopefully America and the rest of the West will start to realise that having populist maverick clowns as heads of government does no-one any good and just causes instability and bad governance. Time to bring the grown ups back.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 46,465

    Foxy said:

    Jonathan said:

    Foxy said:

    rkrkrk said:

    That's quite the gender gap in the US.

    Yep. The allegations against Biden vs the pussy grabber ain't much of a choice, but its only going one way.
    It's finely balanced but I guess denying that one is a pussy grabber just edges it over self confessed, proud pussy grabber.
    ... plus the tidal wave of demented fuckwittery/racism/corruption that Trump represents.
    It no longer matters whether something Trump says or does is particularly racist or stupid. He could come out and observe that the sky was looking rather cloudy and there would be an immediate volley of outraged and flabbergasted Tweets to the contrary, followed by a chorus of professorly rebuttals, followed by a series of solemn statements of opposing politicians and retired agency chiefs dolorously warning us all against believing this dangerous pseudo-scientific mumbo-jumbo.

    It is a particular skill of Trump's to get his opponents to behave as badly and idiotically as he does.
    Even weirder is Trumps ability to get hitherto sensible folk in the right to defend him.

    Even when he suggests injecting bleach they’re silent or ok with it. By any objective measure that is not a good idea.

    I guess it’s pure tribal loyalty and the allure of presidential power.

    This strange phenomena even effects people here.

    Trump truly brings back out odd behaviour.
    I believe that he mused that it would be good if there were a way to 'inject disinfectant'. You may find this shocking, but clearly not shocking enough, or you wouldn't have felt the need to change the word to 'bleach'. Several more (including Nicola Sturgeon in her presser) clearly felt that even this wasn't shocking enough, so she solemnly warned us against 'inGESTing cleaning products'. In doing so, she actually introduced the concept of swallowing bleach to the public, not Trump.
    So which disinfectant do you think should be injected?

    There is already a name for this procedure. It is called embalming, but customarily used after death, not to induce it...
    I have never recommended it, though in the ensuing PB discussion on it I found a preliminary study from the 1920's that showed promise in injecting hydrogen peroxide. And indeed if we could inject an all purpose disinfectant product without injury to the body, it would certainly be a good first line treatment. Imagine if we had to develop a new topical disinfectant every time there was a new disease. It doesn't bear thinking about.
    Weren't doctors in the 1920s recommending radium as a wonder treatment?
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