Good grief, I would place myself as slightly bearish on a Trumpton defeat but those numbers look absolutely awful for him.
I also note some polling data from HYUFD on the previous thread, which again looks pretty dire for Trumpton.
Perhaps @HYUFD and @kinabalu will be proved right after all and Trumpton will get his sorry arse kicked in November.
I just think it's too good to be true, which might be colouring my judgement.
It's the economy that will doom Trump. The US hasn't put in any of the measures to protect ordinary people that we have, apart from a one-off $1200 payment that some people haven't even received. No furlough, no income support, no job protection, nothing. Unemployment may already be at Great Depression levels and will go higher, taking tens of millions off the healthcare provision tied to their employer.
Unless Biden has a complete physical or mental meltdown before November (which is not impossible), Trump is finished.
Thinking about the British and American economies, which is in a better position for a quick v shaped bounceback after corona? Is it:
A. The American economy or
B. The American economy
You should be excited that we'll be able to test the theory of government crisis intervention vs. non-intervention in real life and compare results. The US is massively dynamic, but even dynamism can't do much to fix a bomb crater in the short term.
No quite the opposite. Economic dynamism is the only thing that can fix it. Just like it is economic dynamism, and not state intervention, that has seen absolute poverty in the third world drop like a stone in recent decades.
Growth and prosperity is all. Sunak has laid that aside. The price we will pay, as today's completely horrendous economic numbers show, will be enormous. Health, education, society, you name it.
I believe in economic dynamism as much as anyone else but you can't be dynamic while the economy is shut down. And the economy will be shut down with or without a lockdown (the public will determine that if the virus is wild).
It's like suggesting we should be economically dynamic during the Blitz. We need to win the war then be dynamic.
You're arguing with a fanatic. Explaining the economics didn't shift his fixation. Pointing out the overwhelming view of those who actually know what they're talking about didn't shift his view. Numbers, facts, evidence don't shift his view.
The only information allowed is that which might confirm his view. That is elevated, privileged, and may not be subject to any testing or confirmation because it must be right.
It's like Alistair Haimes and Peter Hitchen had a child together.
The fanatic is you.
Long lockdown MUST be right. It MUST be. So must 'R'
Whatever the economic data. However rubbished Ferguson has been. Whatever the Oxford Epidemiologists think about its complete worthlessness.
It must be right,because if it isn't a person who considers himself as intelligent as you consider yourself to be is in fact an absolute fool.
Long lockdown is your religion, and guess what, there is no god.
How can 'R' be right or wrong? It's just a measure of a thing. It's like saying that speed or age or children per couple is right or wrong?
On Ferguson, hard to know how accurate the worst case was, but we're in the range of the predictions with lockdown. The Oxford Epidemiologists, if you're talking about the ones quoted as reporting an infection fatality rate of 1 in 1000 to 1 in 10000, but closer to 1 in 10000 are demonstrably wrong unless you believe that everyone in the country has already been infected (and still have to take the 1 in 1000 end of their estimates, even then)
What kind of bizarre through the looking glass world are we in? David Davis on the radio talking sense. This is like when I started agreeing with Piers Morgan.
Have you ever read - "They Thought They Were Free: The Germans" ?
Looks worth reading per a Google. Had not heard of book or author.
What's the nutshell?
It's a very low level study of "Why it happened?". Also - "Where they went after 45".
One aspect is - "Decent*" people don't need to question their actions. As long as you are doing what the other nice people are doing, its all ticketybo. Outsource your moral compass.....
* Self defined, of course.
That is definitely something all must be on guard against. Similarly, how people can get desensitized. They can lose their facility to be shocked by something objectively appalling. Lose their ability to say, "this is unacceptable and therefore we will NOT accept it". If Donald Trump were to win again in Nov - which he won't - America as a nation would have demonstrated exactly that moral torpitude.
Sad to find that 'torpitude' already exists as a synonym for 'torpor', otherwise it would be a perfect blend of 'torpor' and 'turpitude'.
Turpitude also works for the man himself. But slightly too harsh for his supporters. Or most of them.
Good grief, I would place myself as slightly bearish on a Trumpton defeat but those numbers look absolutely awful for him.
I also note some polling data from HYUFD on the previous thread, which again looks pretty dire for Trumpton.
Perhaps @HYUFD and @kinabalu will be proved right after all and Trumpton will get his sorry arse kicked in November.
I just think it's too good to be true, which might be colouring my judgement.
It's the economy that will doom Trump. The US hasn't put in any of the measures to protect ordinary people that we have, apart from a one-off $1200 payment that some people haven't even received. No furlough, no income support, no job protection, nothing. Unemployment may already be at Great Depression levels and will go higher, taking tens of millions off the healthcare provision tied to their employer.
Unless Biden has a complete physical or mental meltdown before November (which is not impossible), Trump is finished.
Thinking about the British and American economies, which is in a better position for a quick v shaped bounceback after corona? Is it:
A. The American economy or
B. The American economy
You should be excited that we'll be able to test the theory of government crisis intervention vs. non-intervention in real life and compare results. The US is massively dynamic, but even dynamism can't do much to fix a bomb crater in the short term.
No quite the opposite. Economic dynamism is the only thing that can fix it. Just like it is economic dynamism, and not state intervention, that has seen absolute poverty in the third world drop like a stone in recent decades.
Growth and prosperity is all. Sunak has laid that aside. The price we will pay, as today's completely horrendous economic numbers show, will be enormous. Health, education, society, you name it.
I believe in economic dynamism as much as anyone else but you can't be dynamic while the economy is shut down. And the economy will be shut down with or without a lockdown (the public will determine that if the virus is wild).
It's like suggesting we should be economically dynamic during the Blitz. We need to win the war then be dynamic.
You're arguing with a fanatic. Explaining the economics didn't shift his fixation. Pointing out the overwhelming view of those who actually know what they're talking about didn't shift his view. Numbers, facts, evidence don't shift his view.
The only information allowed is that which might confirm his view. That is elevated, privileged, and may not be subject to any testing or confirmation because it must be right.
It's like Alistair Haimes and Peter Hitchen had a child together.
The fanatic is you.
Long lockdown MUST be right. It MUST be. So must 'R'
Whatever the economic data. However rubbished Ferguson has been. Whatever the Oxford Epidemiologists think about its complete worthlessness.
It must be right,because if it isn't a person who considers himself as intelligent as you consider yourself to be is in fact an absolute fool.
Long lockdown is your religion, and guess what, there is no god.
How can 'R' be right or wrong? It's just a measure of a thing. It's like saying that speed or age or children per couple is right or wrong?
On Ferguson, hard to know how accurate the worst case was, but we're in the range of the predictions with lockdown. The Oxford Epidemiologists, if you're talking about the ones quoted as reporting an infection fatality rate of 1 in 1000 to 1 in 10000, but closer to 1 in 10000 are demonstrably wrong unless you believe that everyone in the country has already been infected (and still have to take the 1 in 1000 end of their estimates, even then)
Indeed, serology tests have already debunked that 1 in 10,000 claim.
Yep. The allegations against Biden vs the pussy grabber ain't much of a choice, but its only going one way.
It's finely balanced but I guess denying that one is a pussy grabber just edges it over self confessed, proud pussy grabber.
... plus the tidal wave of demented fuckwittery/racism/corruption that Trump represents.
It no longer matters whether something Trump says or does is particularly racist or stupid. He could come out and observe that the sky was looking rather cloudy and there would be an immediate volley of outraged and flabbergasted Tweets to the contrary, followed by a chorus of professorly rebuttals, followed by a series of solemn statements of opposing politicians and retired agency chiefs dolorously warning us all against believing this dangerous pseudo-scientific mumbo-jumbo.
It is a particular skill of Trump's to get his opponents to behave as badly and idiotically as he does.
Even weirder is Trumps ability to get hitherto sensible folk in the right to defend him.
Even when he suggests injecting bleach they’re silent or ok with it. By any objective measure that is not a good idea.
I guess it’s pure tribal loyalty and the allure of presidential power.
This strange phenomena even effects people here.
Trump truly brings back out odd behaviour.
I believe that he mused that it would be good if there were a way to 'inject disinfectant'. You may find this shocking, but clearly not shocking enough, or you wouldn't have felt the need to change the word to 'bleach'. Several more (including Nicola Sturgeon in her presser) clearly felt that even this wasn't shocking enough, so she solemnly warned us against 'inGESTing cleaning products'. In doing so, she actually introduced the concept of swallowing bleach to the public, not Trump.
You think inJECTing is better than inJESTing???
I think injecting can only be done by a doctor, so this is classed as a medical musing. Perhaps distracting and inadvisable for a politician to do, but not readily harmful. Ingesting a publicly available product is something we can all do, so to recommend that (if he had done) would be by some way more damaging, yes.
Very few of the substances that I have had injected into me over the years have been administered by doctors: that sort of thing is usually done by a nurse these days.
I sort of take your meaning, but there are a lot of people out there who do inject themselves in non-medical situations I would have thought.
What's the air bridge idea? I'm sure it's shit and/or nonsense but it appears to have passed by me.
It's the bastard offspring of the Boris island airport and the garden bridge. The idea is to piss £50 million up the wall on something that nobody wants and/or is physically impossible.
Some SPAD misheard speculation about the now very much fairy tale road connection to NI - the Ayr bridge.
Yep. The allegations against Biden vs the pussy grabber ain't much of a choice, but its only going one way.
It's finely balanced but I guess denying that one is a pussy grabber just edges it over self confessed, proud pussy grabber.
... plus the tidal wave of demented fuckwittery/racism/corruption that Trump represents.
It no longer matters whether something Trump says or does is particularly racist or stupid. He could come out and observe that the sky was looking rather cloudy and there would be an immediate volley of outraged and flabbergasted Tweets to the contrary, followed by a chorus of professorly rebuttals, followed by a series of solemn statements of opposing politicians and retired agency chiefs dolorously warning us all against believing this dangerous pseudo-scientific mumbo-jumbo.
It is a particular skill of Trump's to get his opponents to behave as badly and idiotically as he does.
Even weirder is Trumps ability to get hitherto sensible folk in the right to defend him.
Even when he suggests injecting bleach they’re silent or ok with it. By any objective measure that is not a good idea.
I guess it’s pure tribal loyalty and the allure of presidential power.
This strange phenomena even effects people here.
Trump truly brings back out odd behaviour.
I believe that he mused that it would be good if there were a way to 'inject disinfectant'. You may find this shocking, but clearly not shocking enough, or you wouldn't have felt the need to change the word to 'bleach'. Several more (including Nicola Sturgeon in her presser) clearly felt that even this wasn't shocking enough, so she solemnly warned us against 'inGESTing cleaning products'. In doing so, she actually introduced the concept of swallowing bleach to the public, not Trump.
So which disinfectant do you think should be injected?
There is already a name for this procedure. It is called embalming, but customarily used after death, not to induce it...
I have never recommended it, though in the ensuing PB discussion on it I found a preliminary study from the 1920's that showed promise in injecting hydrogen peroxide. And indeed if we could inject an all purpose disinfectant product without injury to the body, it would certainly be a good first line treatment. Imagine if we had to develop a new topical disinfectant every time there was a new disease. It doesn't bear thinking about.
Weren't doctors in the 1920s recommending radium as a wonder treatment?
What kind of bizarre through the looking glass world are we in? David Davis on the radio talking sense. This is like when I started agreeing with Piers Morgan.
I call them my Liam Fox moments, disturbing number of them happening recently.
Officially back to work on the 8th of June. It's been nice to get paid for 6 weeks to stay home but I'll be glad to be back to doing something all day. Plans are to have the office at 25% capacity by September and 50% by November. My company is also going to pay for all 1,200 of us to have antibody tests if the the government doesn't have a solution available by the end of June.
Does that mean 25% will do 5 days a week or that all staff will just do 1 or 2 days a week in office?
The latter, everyone does one or two days if they are comfortable with it. For people commuting in they can choose to do 4 or 5 days or WFH full time until the office is back open at 100%.
Yep. The allegations against Biden vs the pussy grabber ain't much of a choice, but its only going one way.
It's finely balanced but I guess denying that one is a pussy grabber just edges it over self confessed, proud pussy grabber.
... plus the tidal wave of demented fuckwittery/racism/corruption that Trump represents.
It no longer matters whether something Trump says or does is particularly racist or stupid. He could come out and observe that the sky was looking rather cloudy and there would be an immediate volley of outraged and flabbergasted Tweets to the contrary, followed by a chorus of professorly rebuttals, followed by a series of solemn statements of opposing politicians and retired agency chiefs dolorously warning us all against believing this dangerous pseudo-scientific mumbo-jumbo.
It is a particular skill of Trump's to get his opponents to behave as badly and idiotically as he does.
Even weirder is Trumps ability to get hitherto sensible folk in the right to defend him.
Even when he suggests injecting bleach they’re silent or ok with it. By any objective measure that is not a good idea.
I guess it’s pure tribal loyalty and the allure of presidential power.
This strange phenomena even effects people here.
Trump truly brings back out odd behaviour.
I believe that he mused that it would be good if there were a way to 'inject disinfectant'. You may find this shocking, but clearly not shocking enough, or you wouldn't have felt the need to change the word to 'bleach'. Several more (including Nicola Sturgeon in her presser) clearly felt that even this wasn't shocking enough, so she solemnly warned us against 'inGESTing cleaning products'. In doing so, she actually introduced the concept of swallowing bleach to the public, not Trump.
So which disinfectant do you think should be injected?
There is already a name for this procedure. It is called embalming, but customarily used after death, not to induce it...
I have never recommended it, though in the ensuing PB discussion on it I found a preliminary study from the 1920's that showed promise in injecting hydrogen peroxide. And indeed if we could inject an all purpose disinfectant product without injury to the body, it would certainly be a good first line treatment. Imagine if we had to develop a new topical disinfectant every time there was a new disease. It doesn't bear thinking about.
Doesn't 'topical' mean stuff you put on your outside? Or are you going in for anti-covid creams as well? (I assume not.)
Good grief, I would place myself as slightly bearish on a Trumpton defeat but those numbers look absolutely awful for him.
I also note some polling data from HYUFD on the previous thread, which again looks pretty dire for Trumpton.
Perhaps @HYUFD and @kinabalu will be proved right after all and Trumpton will get his sorry arse kicked in November.
I just think it's too good to be true, which might be colouring my judgement.
It's the economy that will doom Trump. The US hasn't put in any of the measures to protect ordinary people that we have, apart from a one-off $1200 payment that some people haven't even received. No furlough, no income support, no job protection, nothing. Unemployment may already be at Great Depression levels and will go higher, taking tens of millions off the healthcare provision tied to their employer.
Unless Biden has a complete physical or mental meltdown before November (which is not impossible), Trump is finished.
Thinking about the British and American economies, which is in a better position for a quick v shaped bounceback after corona? Is it:
A. The American economy or
B. The American economy
You should be excited that we'll be able to test the theory of government crisis intervention vs. non-intervention in real life and compare results. The US is massively dynamic, but even dynamism can't do much to fix a bomb crater in the short term.
No quite the opposite. Economic dynamism is the only thing that can fix it. Just like it is economic dynamism, and not state intervention, that has seen absolute poverty in the third world drop like a stone in recent decades.
Growth and prosperity is all. Sunak has laid that aside. The price we will pay, as today's completely horrendous economic numbers show, will be enormous. Health, education, society, you name it.
I believe in economic dynamism as much as anyone else but you can't be dynamic while the economy is shut down. And the economy will be shut down with or without a lockdown (the public will determine that if the virus is wild).
It's like suggesting we should be economically dynamic during the Blitz. We need to win the war then be dynamic.
You're arguing with a fanatic. Explaining the economics didn't shift his fixation. Pointing out the overwhelming view of those who actually know what they're talking about didn't shift his view. Numbers, facts, evidence don't shift his view.
The only information allowed is that which might confirm his view. That is elevated, privileged, and may not be subject to any testing or confirmation because it must be right.
It's like Alistair Haimes and Peter Hitchen had a child together.
The fanatic is you.
Long lockdown MUST be right. It MUST be. So must 'R'
Whatever the economic data. However rubbished Ferguson has been. Whatever the Oxford Epidemiologists think about its complete worthlessness.
It must be right,because if it isn't a person who considers himself as intelligent as you consider yourself to be is in fact an absolute fool.
Long lockdown is your religion, and guess what, there is no god.
Sure.
If you say so.
Must be. After all, you've been saying exactly the same thing ever since the start, regardless of whatever the evidence said.
-Sigh-
Not worth either of us responding to each other from here on in, I would think.
Officially back to work on the 8th of June. It's been nice to get paid for 6 weeks to stay home but I'll be glad to be back to doing something all day. Plans are to have the office at 25% capacity by September and 50% by November. My company is also going to pay for all 1,200 of us to have antibody tests if the the government doesn't have a solution available by the end of June.
Does that mean 25% will do 5 days a week or that all staff will just do 1 or 2 days a week in office?
The latter, everyone does one or two days if they are comfortable with it. For people commuting in they can choose to do 4 or 5 days or WFH full time until the office is back open at 100%.
Sounds eminently sensible, and what most offices will have to do.
How on earth are places like Pret, travel WHSmiths etc going to survive?
Done. I will donate mine to All Dogs Matter. It's a small charity and I doubt many people know it but it campaigns against the Breed Specific Legislation part of the Dangerous Dogs Act and where people get the Police knocking on their doors and seizing their pits because PC Plod thinks it's a pitbull
OK done indeed.
One or other maligned and marginalized grouping to benefit - the transgender community or dangerous looking dogs.
Good grief, I would place myself as slightly bearish on a Trumpton defeat but those numbers look absolutely awful for him.
I also note some polling data from HYUFD on the previous thread, which again looks pretty dire for Trumpton.
Perhaps @HYUFD and @kinabalu will be proved right after all and Trumpton will get his sorry arse kicked in November.
I just think it's too good to be true, which might be colouring my judgement.
It's the economy that will doom Trump. The US hasn't put in any of the measures to protect ordinary people that we have, apart from a one-off $1200 payment that some people haven't even received. No furlough, no income support, no job protection, nothing. Unemployment may already be at Great Depression levels and will go higher, taking tens of millions off the healthcare provision tied to their employer.
Unless Biden has a complete physical or mental meltdown before November (which is not impossible), Trump is finished.
Thinking about the British and American economies, which is in a better position for a quick v shaped bounceback after corona? Is it:
A. The American economy or
B. The American economy
You should be excited that we'll be able to test the theory of government crisis intervention vs. non-intervention in real life and compare results. The US is massively dynamic, but even dynamism can't do much to fix a bomb crater in the short term.
No quite the opposite. Economic dynamism is the only thing that can fix it. Just like it is economic dynamism, and not state intervention, that has seen absolute poverty in the third world drop like a stone in recent decades.
Growth and prosperity is all. Sunak has laid that aside. The price we will pay, as today's completely horrendous economic numbers show, will be enormous. Health, education, society, you name it.
I believe in economic dynamism as much as anyone else but you can't be dynamic while the economy is shut down. And the economy will be shut down with or without a lockdown (the public will determine that if the virus is wild).
It's like suggesting we should be economically dynamic during the Blitz. We need to win the war then be dynamic.
You're arguing with a fanatic. Explaining the economics didn't shift his fixation. Pointing out the overwhelming view of those who actually know what they're talking about didn't shift his view. Numbers, facts, evidence don't shift his view.
The only information allowed is that which might confirm his view. That is elevated, privileged, and may not be subject to any testing or confirmation because it must be right.
It's like Alistair Haimes and Peter Hitchen had a child together.
The fanatic is you.
Long lockdown MUST be right. It MUST be. So must 'R'
Whatever the economic data. However rubbished Ferguson has been. Whatever the Oxford Epidemiologists think about its complete worthlessness.
It must be right,because if it isn't a person who considers himself as intelligent as you consider yourself to be is in fact an absolute fool.
Long lockdown is your religion, and guess what, there is no god.
What economic data suggests that the economy will recover faster with a wild virus killing many people that leaves people terrified and at home of their own free choice?
What economic data suggests that defeating this virus and getting back to normal will be economically worse than letting the virus run wild?
Lord Sumption and Peter Hitchens have also said they would be happy to do this.
I was on the phone to a mate the other day talking about this, and it turns out he knows Lord Sumption! He says in the 20 years he has known him, he doesn't think he's ever known him go down the pub.
What kind of bizarre through the looking glass world are we in? David Davis on the radio talking sense. This is like when I started agreeing with Piers Morgan.
I call them my Liam Fox moments, disturbing number of them happening recently.
The thinking man's Brexiteer.
OK, low bar, if we must be snide (which of course we must), but nevertheless.
Good grief, I would place myself as slightly bearish on a Trumpton defeat but those numbers look absolutely awful for him.
I also note some polling data from HYUFD on the previous thread, which again looks pretty dire for Trumpton.
Perhaps @HYUFD and @kinabalu will be proved right after all and Trumpton will get his sorry arse kicked in November.
I just think it's too good to be true, which might be colouring my judgement.
It's the economy that will doom Trump. The US hasn't put in any of the measures to protect ordinary people that we have, apart from a one-off $1200 payment that some people haven't even received. No furlough, no income support, no job protection, nothing. Unemployment may already be at Great Depression levels and will go higher, taking tens of millions off the healthcare provision tied to their employer.
Unless Biden has a complete physical or mental meltdown before November (which is not impossible), Trump is finished.
Thinking about the British and American economies, which is in a better position for a quick v shaped bounceback after corona? Is it:
A. The American economy or
B. The American economy
You should be excited that we'll be able to test the theory of government crisis intervention vs. non-intervention in real life and compare results. The US is massively dynamic, but even dynamism can't do much to fix a bomb crater in the short term.
No quite the opposite. Economic dynamism is the only thing that can fix it. Just like it is economic dynamism, and not state intervention, that has seen absolute poverty in the third world drop like a stone in recent decades.
Growth and prosperity is all. Sunak has laid that aside. The price we will pay, as today's completely horrendous economic numbers show, will be enormous. Health, education, society, you name it.
I believe in economic dynamism as much as anyone else but you can't be dynamic while the economy is shut down. And the economy will be shut down with or without a lockdown (the public will determine that if the virus is wild).
It's like suggesting we should be economically dynamic during the Blitz. We need to win the war then be dynamic.
You're arguing with a fanatic. Explaining the economics didn't shift his fixation. Pointing out the overwhelming view of those who actually know what they're talking about didn't shift his view. Numbers, facts, evidence don't shift his view.
The only information allowed is that which might confirm his view. That is elevated, privileged, and may not be subject to any testing or confirmation because it must be right.
It's like Alistair Haimes and Peter Hitchen had a child together.
The fanatic is you.
Long lockdown MUST be right. It MUST be. So must 'R'
Whatever the economic data. However rubbished Ferguson has been. Whatever the Oxford Epidemiologists think about its complete worthlessness.
It must be right,because if it isn't a person who considers himself as intelligent as you consider yourself to be is in fact an absolute fool.
Long lockdown is your religion, and guess what, there is no god.
How can 'R' be right or wrong? It's just a measure of a thing. It's like saying that speed or age or children per couple is right or wrong?
On Ferguson, hard to know how accurate the worst case was, but we're in the range of the predictions with lockdown. The Oxford Epidemiologists, if you're talking about the ones quoted as reporting an infection fatality rate of 1 in 1000 to 1 in 10000, but closer to 1 in 10000 are demonstrably wrong unless you believe that everyone in the country has already been infected (and still have to take the 1 in 1000 end of their estimates, even then)
Indeed, serology tests have already debunked that 1 in 10,000 claim.
We're talking here about people, presumably that haven;t actually listened to the Gupta interview or read the report. largely because they cannot bring themselves to, in case they start to question their religion.
But once more and only once more.
All the Gupta team did was look at how the disease behaves in every country regardless of lockdown procedure.
The results were almost identical, according to them. A rise, a peak and then a big drop with no bounceback independent of any government action pre, during or post.
'like clockwork' they called it.
Antibody rates largely remains low though (EG Stockholm) leading them to an inescapable conclusion. There was a large group of people for whom the virus was simply not a thing. They were in the daily course of their lives, immune. Due to genetics or having had colds, whatever.
In their eyes the whole idea of 'infection' with Corona is therefore a very grey area. for some the virus was like radiation, for others simply like neutrinos.
But their conclusion, based on observing the virus's behaviour in many places was that it had 'passed through' Britain, and we could open the pubs tomorrow.
What until all those furloughed workers currently enjoying days hanging out at parks and beaches find out that there is no job for them to go back to in September.
Government approval ratings will go through the floor, as people will be screaming from the rooftops they never knew that this was likely and now out of cash, and very difficult to find new employment.
terrifying article of the week:
Britain is sliding into a deflationary death spiral Negative interest rates on Government debt are a harbinger of economic destruction on a vast scale
Yep. The allegations against Biden vs the pussy grabber ain't much of a choice, but its only going one way.
It's finely balanced but I guess denying that one is a pussy grabber just edges it over self confessed, proud pussy grabber.
... plus the tidal wave of demented fuckwittery/racism/corruption that Trump represents.
It no longer matters whether something Trump says or does is particularly racist or stupid. He could come out and observe that the sky was looking rather cloudy and there would be an immediate volley of outraged and flabbergasted Tweets to the contrary, followed by a chorus of professorly rebuttals, followed by a series of solemn statements of opposing politicians and retired agency chiefs dolorously warning us all against believing this dangerous pseudo-scientific mumbo-jumbo.
It is a particular skill of Trump's to get his opponents to behave as badly and idiotically as he does.
Even weirder is Trumps ability to get hitherto sensible folk in the right to defend him.
Even when he suggests injecting bleach they’re silent or ok with it. By any objective measure that is not a good idea.
I guess it’s pure tribal loyalty and the allure of presidential power.
This strange phenomena even effects people here.
Trump truly brings back out odd behaviour.
I believe that he mused that it would be good if there were a way to 'inject disinfectant'. You may find this shocking, but clearly not shocking enough, or you wouldn't have felt the need to change the word to 'bleach'. Several more (including Nicola Sturgeon in her presser) clearly felt that even this wasn't shocking enough, so she solemnly warned us against 'inGESTing cleaning products'. In doing so, she actually introduced the concept of swallowing bleach to the public, not Trump.
So which disinfectant do you think should be injected?
There is already a name for this procedure. It is called embalming, but customarily used after death, not to induce it...
I have never recommended it, though in the ensuing PB discussion on it I found a preliminary study from the 1920's that showed promise in injecting hydrogen peroxide. And indeed if we could inject an all purpose disinfectant product without injury to the body, it would certainly be a good first line treatment. Imagine if we had to develop a new topical disinfectant every time there was a new disease. It doesn't bear thinking about.
Doesn't 'topical' mean stuff you put on your outside? Or are you going in for anti-covid creams as well? (I assume not.)
Yes, that's what I mean, though I didn't explain the argument very well. Topical disinfectants like hand sanitisers work via a single mechanism to kill a whole range of bacteria and viruses. If they didn't, and you needed to develop and test a new one every time a new disease emerged, the situation would be untenable.
Therefore if we could find a way to inject (or even ingest!) an all-purpose disinfectant that killed viruses, it would clearly be invaluable for this and future pandemics.
@HYUFD is an associate member - and very welcome to use the bar on a weekday - having always said if the Dems pick Sleepy they have a great chance.
I remain hopeful, but unconvinced. Trump is a SOB and he will stop at nothing. This is going to be utterly brutal.
It will be a horrible election but IMO he cannot win. He's unelectable.
I also think (post defeat) there might need to be "special measures" to physically evict him.
I think Biden would win comfortably if the election were tomorrow but a lot can happen between now and November. I honestly dread to think what Trump will do over the next 5 months and if he loses he is going to be screaming voter fraud and inciting his moronic core to civil strife. Who would have believed that the mighty USA would come to this?
Biden's mental faculties could slip dramatically in 5 months too.
Whoever he picks as his running mate, if Biden wins I expect them to become acting President within the next four years under the 25th Amendment.
Although before it gets to that, there is a material risk of Biden demonstrating in the debates/campaign that he should not be the candidate. Imagine if he had a 60-second brain fade - just stood there, saying nothing.... Trump has to do nothing other than say how sad he is that the Democrats put Biden up for election. 4 more years....
Good grief, I would place myself as slightly bearish on a Trumpton defeat but those numbers look absolutely awful for him.
I also note some polling data from HYUFD on the previous thread, which again looks pretty dire for Trumpton.
Perhaps @HYUFD and @kinabalu will be proved right after all and Trumpton will get his sorry arse kicked in November.
I just think it's too good to be true, which might be colouring my judgement.
It's the economy that will doom Trump. The US hasn't put in any of the measures to protect ordinary people that we have, apart from a one-off $1200 payment that some people haven't even received. No furlough, no income support, no job protection, nothing. Unemployment may already be at Great Depression levels and will go higher, taking tens of millions off the healthcare provision tied to their employer.
Unless Biden has a complete physical or mental meltdown before November (which is not impossible), Trump is finished.
Thinking about the British and American economies, which is in a better position for a quick v shaped bounceback after corona? Is it:
A. The American economy or
B. The American economy
You should be excited that we'll be able to test the theory of government crisis intervention vs. non-intervention in real life and compare results. The US is massively dynamic, but even dynamism can't do much to fix a bomb crater in the short term.
No quite the opposite. Economic dynamism is the only thing that can fix it. Just like it is economic dynamism, and not state intervention, that has seen absolute poverty in the third world drop like a stone in recent decades.
Growth and prosperity is all. Sunak has laid that aside. The price we will pay, as today's completely horrendous economic numbers show, will be enormous. Health, education, society, you name it.
I believe in economic dynamism as much as anyone else but you can't be dynamic while the economy is shut down. And the economy will be shut down with or without a lockdown (the public will determine that if the virus is wild).
It's like suggesting we should be economically dynamic during the Blitz. We need to win the war then be dynamic.
You're arguing with a fanatic. Explaining the economics didn't shift his fixation. Pointing out the overwhelming view of those who actually know what they're talking about didn't shift his view. Numbers, facts, evidence don't shift his view.
The only information allowed is that which might confirm his view. That is elevated, privileged, and may not be subject to any testing or confirmation because it must be right.
It's like Alistair Haimes and Peter Hitchen had a child together.
The fanatic is you.
Long lockdown MUST be right. It MUST be. So must 'R'
Whatever the economic data. However rubbished Ferguson has been. Whatever the Oxford Epidemiologists think about its complete worthlessness.
It must be right,because if it isn't a person who considers himself as intelligent as you consider yourself to be is in fact an absolute fool.
Long lockdown is your religion, and guess what, there is no god.
How can 'R' be right or wrong? It's just a measure of a thing. It's like saying that speed or age or children per couple is right or wrong?
On Ferguson, hard to know how accurate the worst case was, but we're in the range of the predictions with lockdown. The Oxford Epidemiologists, if you're talking about the ones quoted as reporting an infection fatality rate of 1 in 1000 to 1 in 10000, but closer to 1 in 10000 are demonstrably wrong unless you believe that everyone in the country has already been infected (and still have to take the 1 in 1000 end of their estimates, even then)
Indeed, serology tests have already debunked that 1 in 10,000 claim.
We're talking here about people, presumably that haven;t actually listened to the Gupta interview or read the report. largely because they cannot bring themselves to, in case they start to question their religion.
But once more and only once more.
All the Gupta team did was look at how the disease behaves in every country regardless of lockdown procedure.
The results were almost identical, according to them. A rise, a peak and then a big drop with no bounceback independent of any government action pre, during or post.
'like clockwork' they called it.
Antibody rates largely remains low though (EG Stockholm) leading them to an inescapable conclusion. There was a large group of people for whom the virus was simply not a thing. They were in the daily course of their lives, immune. Due to genetics or having had colds, whatever.
In their eyes the whole idea of 'infection' with Corona is therefore a very grey area. for some the virus was like radiation, for others simply like neutrinos.
But their conclusion, based on observing the virus's behaviour in many places was that it had 'passed through' Britain, and we could open the pubs tomorrow.
Or, a novel virus scares people into reducing social (and economic) interactions whether there is a lockdown or not.
When we loosen our distancing, be it by mandate or by choice, the infection rate will grow again.
I always believe the woman in these type of things (barring strong evidence to the contrary) but I really would like this one to be groundless. For obvious reasons.
Officially back to work on the 8th of June. It's been nice to get paid for 6 weeks to stay home but I'll be glad to be back to doing something all day. Plans are to have the office at 25% capacity by September and 50% by November. My company is also going to pay for all 1,200 of us to have antibody tests if the the government doesn't have a solution available by the end of June.
Does that mean 25% will do 5 days a week or that all staff will just do 1 or 2 days a week in office?
The latter, everyone does one or two days if they are comfortable with it. For people commuting in they can choose to do 4 or 5 days or WFH full time until the office is back open at 100%.
Sounds eminently sensible, and what most offices will have to do.
How on earth are places like Pret, travel WHSmiths etc going to survive?
They won't survive. Tens of thousands of business are about to go under.
I don't think people have confronted this reality yet. It's a bit like confronting death in Larkin's poem Aubade: "the mind blanks at the glare".
I am the same. Whenever I sit down and allow myself to contemplate what is coming, I suffer a mild paralysis. Like a rabbit in the lights.
All these businesses shutting down at once, right across the world, in tandem with a monumental surge in debt and defaults: FUCK. It's a bit like the first nuclear explosion, when scientists idly wondered if it might set the earth's atmosphere on fire, extinguishing all life.
We are about to see the first nuclear explosion of a fully globalised economy.
''I don't think people have confronted this reality yet''
Yep. The allegations against Biden vs the pussy grabber ain't much of a choice, but its only going one way.
It's finely balanced but I guess denying that one is a pussy grabber just edges it over self confessed, proud pussy grabber.
... plus the tidal wave of demented fuckwittery/racism/corruption that Trump represents.
It no longer matters whether something Trump says or does is particularly racist or stupid. He could come out and observe that the sky was looking rather cloudy and there would be an immediate volley of outraged and flabbergasted Tweets to the contrary, followed by a chorus of professorly rebuttals, followed by a series of solemn statements of opposing politicians and retired agency chiefs dolorously warning us all against believing this dangerous pseudo-scientific mumbo-jumbo.
It is a particular skill of Trump's to get his opponents to behave as badly and idiotically as he does.
Even weirder is Trumps ability to get hitherto sensible folk in the right to defend him.
Even when he suggests injecting bleach they’re silent or ok with it. By any objective measure that is not a good idea.
I guess it’s pure tribal loyalty and the allure of presidential power.
This strange phenomena even effects people here.
Trump truly brings back out odd behaviour.
I believe that he mused that it would be good if there were a way to 'inject disinfectant'. You may find this shocking, but clearly not shocking enough, or you wouldn't have felt the need to change the word to 'bleach'. Several more (including Nicola Sturgeon in her presser) clearly felt that even this wasn't shocking enough, so she solemnly warned us against 'inGESTing cleaning products'. In doing so, she actually introduced the concept of swallowing bleach to the public, not Trump.
So which disinfectant do you think should be injected?
There is already a name for this procedure. It is called embalming, but customarily used after death, not to induce it...
I have never recommended it, though in the ensuing PB discussion on it I found a preliminary study from the 1920's that showed promise in injecting hydrogen peroxide. And indeed if we could inject an all purpose disinfectant product without injury to the body, it would certainly be a good first line treatment. Imagine if we had to develop a new topical disinfectant every time there was a new disease. It doesn't bear thinking about.
Doesn't 'topical' mean stuff you put on your outside? Or are you going in for anti-covid creams as well? (I assume not.)
Yes, that's what I mean, though I didn't explain the argument very well. Topical disinfectants like hand sanitisers work via a single mechanism to kill a whole range of bacteria and viruses. If they didn't, and you needed to develop and test a new one every time a new disease emerged, the situation would be untenable.
Therefore if we could find a way to inject (or even ingest!) an all-purpose disinfectant that killed viruses, it would clearly be invaluable for this and future pandemics.
There's a reason there is a warning not to ingest disinfectant on the side of the bottle.
Officially back to work on the 8th of June. It's been nice to get paid for 6 weeks to stay home but I'll be glad to be back to doing something all day. Plans are to have the office at 25% capacity by September and 50% by November. My company is also going to pay for all 1,200 of us to have antibody tests if the the government doesn't have a solution available by the end of June.
Does that mean 25% will do 5 days a week or that all staff will just do 1 or 2 days a week in office?
The latter, everyone does one or two days if they are comfortable with it. For people commuting in they can choose to do 4 or 5 days or WFH full time until the office is back open at 100%.
Sounds eminently sensible, and what most offices will have to do.
How on earth are places like Pret, travel WHSmiths etc going to survive?
They won't survive. Tens of thousands of business are about to go under.
I don't think people have confronted this reality yet. It's a bit like confronting death in Larkin's poem Aubade: "the mind blanks at the glare".
I am the same. Whenever I sit down and allow myself to contemplate what is coming, I suffer a mild paralysis. Like a rabbit in the lights.
All these businesses shutting down at once, right across the world, in tandem with a monumental surge in debt and defaults: FUCK. It's a bit like the first nuclear explosion, when scientists idly wondered if it might set the earth's atmosphere on fire, extinguishing all life.
We are about to see the first nuclear explosion of a fully globalised economy.
It's authors of novels which sell predominantly at airports who I worry about.
Officially back to work on the 8th of June. It's been nice to get paid for 6 weeks to stay home but I'll be glad to be back to doing something all day. Plans are to have the office at 25% capacity by September and 50% by November. My company is also going to pay for all 1,200 of us to have antibody tests if the the government doesn't have a solution available by the end of June.
Does that mean 25% will do 5 days a week or that all staff will just do 1 or 2 days a week in office?
The latter, everyone does one or two days if they are comfortable with it. For people commuting in they can choose to do 4 or 5 days or WFH full time until the office is back open at 100%.
Sounds eminently sensible, and what most offices will have to do.
How on earth are places like Pret, travel WHSmiths etc going to survive?
They won't survive. Tens of thousands of business are about to go under.
I don't think people have confronted this reality yet. It's a bit like confronting death in Larkin's poem Aubade: "the mind blanks at the glare".
I am the same. Whenever I sit down and allow myself to contemplate what is coming, I suffer a mild paralysis. Like a rabbit in the lights.
All these businesses shutting down at once, right across the world, in tandem with a monumental surge in debt and defaults: FUCK. It's a bit like the first nuclear explosion, when scientists idly wondered if it might set the earth's atmosphere on fire, extinguishing all life.
We are about to see the first nuclear explosion of a fully globalised economy.
Hyperbole (at which you're excellent - chapeau) aside, yes, there are some pretty horrific economic consequences of this virus (and the only social medicine we have against it) coming down the track.
It baffles me that vast swathes of the economy have any perceived value at all at the moment. Is that there much spare cash swishing around the system that investors are willing to risk it?
Indeed, serology tests have already debunked that 1 in 10,000 claim.
We're talking here about people, presumably that haven;t actually listened to the Gupta interview or read the report. largely because they cannot bring themselves to, in case they start to question their religion.
But once more and only once more.
All the Gupta team did was look at how the disease behaves in every country regardless of lockdown procedure.
The results were almost identical, according to them. A rise, a peak and then a big drop with no bounceback independent of any government action pre, during or post.
'like clockwork' they called it.
Antibody rates largely remains low though (EG Stockholm) leading them to an inescapable conclusion. There was a large group of people for whom the virus was simply not a thing. They were in the daily course of their lives, immune. Due to genetics or having had colds, whatever.
In their eyes the whole idea of 'infection' with Corona is therefore a very grey area. for some the virus was like radiation, for others simply like neutrinos.
But their conclusion, based on observing the virus's behaviour in many places was that it had 'passed through' Britain, and we could open the pubs tomorrow.
Did she actually look at the number of people infected through serology samples? If not, it's a load of bunk.
Officially back to work on the 8th of June. It's been nice to get paid for 6 weeks to stay home but I'll be glad to be back to doing something all day. Plans are to have the office at 25% capacity by September and 50% by November. My company is also going to pay for all 1,200 of us to have antibody tests if the the government doesn't have a solution available by the end of June.
Does that mean 25% will do 5 days a week or that all staff will just do 1 or 2 days a week in office?
The latter, everyone does one or two days if they are comfortable with it. For people commuting in they can choose to do 4 or 5 days or WFH full time until the office is back open at 100%.
Sounds eminently sensible, and what most offices will have to do.
How on earth are places like Pret, travel WHSmiths etc going to survive?
They won't survive. Tens of thousands of business are about to go under.
I don't think people have confronted this reality yet. It's a bit like confronting death in Larkin's poem Aubade: "the mind blanks at the glare".
I am the same. Whenever I sit down and allow myself to contemplate what is coming, I suffer a mild paralysis. Like a rabbit in the lights.
All these businesses shutting down at once, right across the world, in tandem with a monumental surge in debt and defaults: FUCK. It's a bit like the first nuclear explosion, when scientists idly wondered if it might set the earth's atmosphere on fire, extinguishing all life.
We are about to see the first nuclear explosion of a fully globalised economy.
''I don't think people have confronted this reality yet''
I'm trying Eadric! God knows I'm trying!
No, you haven't confronted the reality. The economic strife that @eadric so prosasicly describes is baked in, lockdown or no.
Good grief, I would place myself as slightly bearish on a Trumpton defeat but those numbers look absolutely awful for him.
I also note some polling data from HYUFD on the previous thread, which again looks pretty dire for Trumpton.
Perhaps @HYUFD and @kinabalu will be proved right after all and Trumpton will get his sorry arse kicked in November.
I just think it's too good to be true, which might be colouring my judgement.
It's the economy that will doom Trump. The US hasn't put in any of the measures to protect ordinary people that we have, apart from a one-off $1200 payment that some people haven't even received. No furlough, no income support, no job protection, nothing. Unemployment may already be at Great Depression levels and will go higher, taking tens of millions off the healthcare provision tied to their employer.
Unless Biden has a complete physical or mental meltdown before November (which is not impossible), Trump is finished.
Thinking about the British and American economies, which is in a better position for a quick v shaped bounceback after corona? Is it:
A. The American economy or
B. The American economy
You should be excited that we'll be able to test the theory of government crisis intervention vs. non-intervention in real life and compare results. The US is massively dynamic, but even dynamism can't do much to fix a bomb crater in the short term.
No quite the opposite. Economic dynamism is the only thing that can fix it. Just like it is economic dynamism, and not state intervention, that has seen absolute poverty in the third world drop like a stone in recent decades.
Growth and prosperity is all. Sunak has laid that aside. The price we will pay, as today's completely horrendous economic numbers show, will be enormous. Health, education, society, you name it.
I believe in economic dynamism as much as anyone else but you can't be dynamic while the economy is shut down. And the economy will be shut down with or without a lockdown (the public will determine that if the virus is wild).
It's like suggesting we should be economically dynamic during the Blitz. We need to win the war then be dynamic.
You're arguing with a fanatic. Explaining the economics didn't shift his fixation. Pointing out the overwhelming view of those who actually know what they're talking about didn't shift his view. Numbers, facts, evidence don't shift his view.
The only information allowed is that which might confirm his view. That is elevated, privileged, and may not be subject to any testing or confirmation because it must be right.
It's like Alistair Haimes and Peter Hitchen had a child together.
The fanatic is you.
Long lockdown MUST be right. It MUST be. So must 'R'
Whatever the economic data. However rubbished Ferguson has been. Whatever the Oxford Epidemiologists think about its complete worthlessness.
It must be right,because if it isn't a person who considers himself as intelligent as you consider yourself to be is in fact an absolute fool.
Long lockdown is your religion, and guess what, there is no god.
What economic data suggests that the economy will recover faster with a wild virus killing many people that leaves people terrified and at home of their own free choice?
What economic data suggests that defeating this virus and getting back to normal will be economically worse than letting the virus run wild?
Oxford contend the virus isn;t generally wild. Its very selectively wild.
They base that on their observations of its behaviour in many countries. In every case it is exactly the same. Rise, peak, pass through. Regardless of government action.
Why? it can only be because there is a large group who don't have antibodies but are nevertheless immune.
Officially back to work on the 8th of June. It's been nice to get paid for 6 weeks to stay home but I'll be glad to be back to doing something all day. Plans are to have the office at 25% capacity by September and 50% by November. My company is also going to pay for all 1,200 of us to have antibody tests if the the government doesn't have a solution available by the end of June.
Does that mean 25% will do 5 days a week or that all staff will just do 1 or 2 days a week in office?
The latter, everyone does one or two days if they are comfortable with it. For people commuting in they can choose to do 4 or 5 days or WFH full time until the office is back open at 100%.
Sounds eminently sensible, and what most offices will have to do.
How on earth are places like Pret, travel WHSmiths etc going to survive?
They won't survive. Tens of thousands of business are about to go under.
I don't think people have confronted this reality yet. It's a bit like confronting death in Larkin's poem Aubade: "the mind blanks at the glare".
I am the same. Whenever I sit down and allow myself to contemplate what is coming, I suffer a mild paralysis. Like a rabbit in the lights.
All these businesses shutting down at once, right across the world, in tandem with a monumental surge in debt and defaults: FUCK. It's a bit like the first nuclear explosion, when scientists idly wondered if it might set the earth's atmosphere on fire, extinguishing all life.
We are about to see the first nuclear explosion of a fully globalised economy.
It's authors of novels which sell predominantly at airports who I worry about.
Oh, I think providers of escapism will do OK. People will REALLY want to escape.
Indeed selling escapism to people trapped in their houses with no holidays might just be the second best business to be in now, after home delivered alcohol, or maybe online porn.
What until all those furloughed workers currently enjoying days hanging out at parks and beaches find out that there is no job for them to go back to in September.
Government approval ratings will go through the floor, as people will be screaming from the rooftops they never knew that this was likely and now out of cash, and very difficult to find new employment.
terrifying article of the week:
Britain is sliding into a deflationary death spiral Negative interest rates on Government debt are a harbinger of economic destruction on a vast scale
Looking at the Biden numbers compared to Clinton's in 2016, he's only up with women and only by +5. He's not up at all with men.
That's really surprising. I'd put down some of the blame for Clinton's defeat to a degree of misogyny, and Biden is supposed to have greater appeal to what might be loosely termed the "bloke" vote, so you'd expect him to be up with men - all other things being equal.
What's that about?
Trump beat Hillary by 11% with men in 2016, so if Trump now only leads Biden by 7% with men then Biden has cut the gap by 4%
Yes, that was in my earlier post, but the change among men is only in Trump supporters going to don't know - they may end up voting Trump in the end. Biden's share is the same as Clinton's.
We're talking here about people, presumably that haven;t actually listened to the Gupta interview or read the report. largely because they cannot bring themselves to, in case they start to question their religion.
But once more and only once more.
All the Gupta team did was look at how the disease behaves in every country regardless of lockdown procedure.
The results were almost identical, according to them. A rise, a peak and then a big drop with no bounceback independent of any government action pre, during or post.
'like clockwork' they called it.
Antibody rates largely remains low though (EG Stockholm) leading them to an inescapable conclusion. There was a large group of people for whom the virus was simply not a thing. They were in the daily course of their lives, immune. Due to genetics or having had colds, whatever.
In their eyes the whole idea of 'infection' with Corona is therefore a very grey area. for some the virus was like radiation, for others simply like neutrinos.
But their conclusion, based on observing the virus's behaviour in many places was that it had 'passed through' Britain, and we could open the pubs tomorrow.
"She explains the flare-ups in places like New York, where the IFR seems to have been higher than 0.1%, through a combination of circumstances leading to unusually bad outbreaks, including the infection load and the layout of the population: “When you have pockets of vulnerable people it might rip through those pockets in a way that it wouldn’t if the vulnerable people were more scattered within the general population.”
I mean this seems unbelievably weak. It's just a coincidence that there are loads of deaths in places where you might expect the virus to be first... actually we've all had it/are immune.
Officially back to work on the 8th of June. It's been nice to get paid for 6 weeks to stay home but I'll be glad to be back to doing something all day. Plans are to have the office at 25% capacity by September and 50% by November. My company is also going to pay for all 1,200 of us to have antibody tests if the the government doesn't have a solution available by the end of June.
Does that mean 25% will do 5 days a week or that all staff will just do 1 or 2 days a week in office?
The latter, everyone does one or two days if they are comfortable with it. For people commuting in they can choose to do 4 or 5 days or WFH full time until the office is back open at 100%.
Sounds eminently sensible, and what most offices will have to do.
How on earth are places like Pret, travel WHSmiths etc going to survive?
They won't survive. Tens of thousands of business are about to go under.
I don't think people have confronted this reality yet. It's a bit like confronting death in Larkin's poem Aubade: "the mind blanks at the glare".
I am the same. Whenever I sit down and allow myself to contemplate what is coming, I suffer a mild paralysis. Like a rabbit in the lights.
All these businesses shutting down at once, right across the world, in tandem with a monumental surge in debt and defaults: FUCK. It's a bit like the first nuclear explosion, when scientists idly wondered if it might set the earth's atmosphere on fire, extinguishing all life.
We are about to see the first nuclear explosion of a fully globalised economy.
''I don't think people have confronted this reality yet''
I'm trying Eadric! God knows I'm trying!
No, you haven't confronted the reality. The economic strife that @eadric so prosasicly describes is baked in, lockdown or no.
Wrong again.I have always accepted there was going to be a big hit. Its the size of the hit. We are leaving lockdown far too slowly and far too late and with enormous disincentives.
Yep. The allegations against Biden vs the pussy grabber ain't much of a choice, but its only going one way.
It's finely balanced but I guess denying that one is a pussy grabber just edges it over self confessed, proud pussy grabber.
The hope is that Biden at least feels bad about his unwanted forays and stopped offending at an earlier age. It's not the most inspiring of messages - can't see it going on a tee shirt - but it ought probably to be enough. In the land of the pussy grabbers the one ...
Perhaps 'Joe was a only tit man' to the strains of Loudon Wainwright's no-longer-quite-appropriate ditty.
Yep. The allegations against Biden vs the pussy grabber ain't much of a choice, but its only going one way.
It's finely balanced but I guess denying that one is a pussy grabber just edges it over self confessed, proud pussy grabber.
... plus the tidal wave of demented fuckwittery/racism/corruption that Trump represents.
It no longer matters whether something Trump says or does is particularly racist or stupid. He could come out and observe that the sky was looking rather cloudy and there would be an immediate volley of outraged and flabbergasted Tweets to the contrary, followed by a chorus of professorly rebuttals, followed by a series of solemn statements of opposing politicians and retired agency chiefs dolorously warning us all against believing this dangerous pseudo-scientific mumbo-jumbo.
It is a particular skill of Trump's to get his opponents to behave as badly and idiotically as he does.
Even weirder is Trumps ability to get hitherto sensible folk in the right to defend him.
Even when he suggests injecting bleach they’re silent or ok with it. By any objective measure that is not a good idea.
I guess it’s pure tribal loyalty and the allure of presidential power.
This strange phenomena even effects people here.
Trump truly brings back out odd behaviour.
I believe that he mused that it would be good if there were a way to 'inject disinfectant'. You may find this shocking, but clearly not shocking enough, or you wouldn't have felt the need to change the word to 'bleach'. Several more (including Nicola Sturgeon in her presser) clearly felt that even this wasn't shocking enough, so she solemnly warned us against 'inGESTing cleaning products'. In doing so, she actually introduced the concept of swallowing bleach to the public, not Trump.
So which disinfectant do you think should be injected?
There is already a name for this procedure. It is called embalming, but customarily used after death, not to induce it...
I have never recommended it, though in the ensuing PB discussion on it I found a preliminary study from the 1920's that showed promise in injecting hydrogen peroxide. And indeed if we could inject an all purpose disinfectant product without injury to the body, it would certainly be a good first line treatment. Imagine if we had to develop a new topical disinfectant every time there was a new disease. It doesn't bear thinking about.
Doesn't 'topical' mean stuff you put on your outside? Or are you going in for anti-covid creams as well? (I assume not.)
Yes, that's what I mean, though I didn't explain the argument very well. Topical disinfectants like hand sanitisers work via a single mechanism to kill a whole range of bacteria and viruses. If they didn't, and you needed to develop and test a new one every time a new disease emerged, the situation would be untenable.
Therefore if we could find a way to inject (or even ingest!) an all-purpose disinfectant that killed viruses, it would clearly be invaluable for this and future pandemics.
Okay then a disinfgectant "for external use only" that you can inject, put up your botty, whatever. Trouble is these things with a systemic effect on the bugs alsohave systemic effects on the body cells as well (which is wny chemical treatment for cancer is so awful). And the virus, unlike a bacterium or fungus, uses the body's own cellular machinery, so you can't target the bacterial machinery or whatever buyt need a systemic toxin. Still, if anything can be shown to work in properly blinded and randomised trials ....
Officially back to work on the 8th of June. It's been nice to get paid for 6 weeks to stay home but I'll be glad to be back to doing something all day. Plans are to have the office at 25% capacity by September and 50% by November. My company is also going to pay for all 1,200 of us to have antibody tests if the the government doesn't have a solution available by the end of June.
Does that mean 25% will do 5 days a week or that all staff will just do 1 or 2 days a week in office?
The latter, everyone does one or two days if they are comfortable with it. For people commuting in they can choose to do 4 or 5 days or WFH full time until the office is back open at 100%.
Sounds eminently sensible, and what most offices will have to do.
How on earth are places like Pret, travel WHSmiths etc going to survive?
They won't survive. Tens of thousands of business are about to go under.
I don't think people have confronted this reality yet. It's a bit like confronting death in Larkin's poem Aubade: "the mind blanks at the glare".
I am the same. Whenever I sit down and allow myself to contemplate what is coming, I suffer a mild paralysis. Like a rabbit in the lights.
All these businesses shutting down at once, right across the world, in tandem with a monumental surge in debt and defaults: FUCK. It's a bit like the first nuclear explosion, when scientists idly wondered if it might set the earth's atmosphere on fire, extinguishing all life.
We are about to see the first nuclear explosion of a fully globalised economy.
Hyperbole (at which you're excellent - chapeau) aside, yes, there are some pretty horrific economic consequences of this virus (and the only social medicine we have against it) coming down the track.
It baffles me that vast swathes of the economy have any perceived value at all at the moment. Is that there much spare cash swishing around the system that investors are willing to risk it?
Yes. Kudos to punters who bought at the recent low, but they are braver than I am.
What until all those furloughed workers currently enjoying days hanging out at parks and beaches find out that there is no job for them to go back to in September.
Government approval ratings will go through the floor, as people will be screaming from the rooftops they never knew that this was likely and now out of cash, and very difficult to find new employment.
terrifying article of the week:
Britain is sliding into a deflationary death spiral Negative interest rates on Government debt are a harbinger of economic destruction on a vast scale
I disagree. Deflation means we can do QE to boost money supply (and write off government debt).
As I recall from A level Economics in the 1970s, deflation is BAD. Hasn't your solution been tried before...in Zimbabwe?
Yes and no.
Yes deflation is bad, which is why QE is a good idea to prevent deflation. That we resolve our budget deficit with it is the icing on the cake not the only reason to do it.
And no, Zimbabwe never tried QE to avoid deflation. I swear any time you suggest any monetary policy its always "Zimbabwe, Zimbabwe". Zimbabwe is not what the UK with QE looks like.
Its this kind of graph that, to my mind, supports Oxford.
Rise, peak, pass through. Same everywhere. Like clockwork.
Sweden has implemented almost as many social distancing measures as we have, according to the Oxford stringency index. So they have succeeded in lowering R below one. But not as far below one as countries with more stringent lockdowns, whose numbers have fallen much further.
My report on the Final Libertarian Party Debate last night before the convention/vote on Saturday.
Jacob Hornberger: (from the more fundamentalist Mesis wing of the party) The presumed forerunner, did OK no slip-ups, probably enough to keep himself in the lead, but no knock-outs, spent a lot of time criticising others mostly Jorgenson, who he probably perceives as his closest rival.
Jo Jorgensen: (from a more pragmatic wing of the party) Good Performance, lots of references to her as a sinatist, and starting a business, never mentioned that she was the only female in the race,
Vermin Supreme: (irony cadadit?) I was very impressed and now think I get the angle. he is not so much a jock candidate but using comedy as a weapon against the establishment. had the best line of the night, and depending on how many people actual see him, I think he may surprise he could win.
Judge Jim Gray, did not come over well in this format, always complaining he did not get enough spiking time, and constantly referring to his website. he has been in party for a long time and being a Judge gives him some credibility, but I don't think he is pure enough to take votes off hornburger, or pragmatic enough to take votes off Jorgenson.
John Mondu: Nice chap and probably won friends tonight by being polite and sticking to the party platform, had a good answer to the question of minimum wage but overall was not that a good communicate and I don't see him winning.
Best line of the night:
Question: 'what would you do about COVID?'
Vernin: Start declaring COVID Free Zones........Because government declared Gun Free Zones and Drug Free Zones, have worked so well
Areas of agreement, totally open boarders for all immigrants, bring all troops home, legalise all drugs and sex work, cut or abolish the Federal income tax.
Most likely to win Libertarian nomination IMHO are as listed above.
My preferred option: Jorgensen, then Vermin, then Hornberger.
Most likely to win presedancey: OK this is so unlikely that its almost silly, but I think it is just, just possible that the Vermin approach may be seen as a spot of fun and opportunity to pock fun and could become popular amongst collage kids, and so on.
@HYUFD is an associate member - and very welcome to use the bar on a weekday - having always said if the Dems pick Sleepy they have a great chance.
I think Trump could lose to Biden certainly but I don't think he is toast either, my gut says it will be the closest US election since 2000
Oh, I see. Fence. "Very close" bla bla.
Fair enough, but to retain associate membership of the TrumpToast club - with the benefits thus accruing - you must at least just favour Biden to squeak it.
This Boris can visit Trump,.but you can't, and London can unlock but the rest of you can't smacks heavily of one rule for the elite. It makes no political sense whatsoever.
This Boris can visit Trump,.but you can't, and London can unlock but the rest of you can't smacks heavily of one rule for the elite. It makes no political sense whatsoever.
Not sure the average punter can visit Trump to be fair.
What until all those furloughed workers currently enjoying days hanging out at parks and beaches find out that there is no job for them to go back to in September.
Government approval ratings will go through the floor, as people will be screaming from the rooftops they never knew that this was likely and now out of cash, and very difficult to find new employment.
terrifying article of the week:
Britain is sliding into a deflationary death spiral Negative interest rates on Government debt are a harbinger of economic destruction on a vast scale
I disagree. Deflation means we can do QE to boost money supply (and write off government debt).
As I recall from A level Economics in the 1970s, deflation is BAD. Hasn't your solution been tried before...in Zimbabwe?
Yes and no.
Yes deflation is bad, which is why QE is a good idea to prevent deflation. That we resolve our budget deficit with it is the icing on the cake not the only reason to do it.
And no, Zimbabwe never tried QE to avoid deflation. I swear any time you suggest any monetary policy its always "Zimbabwe, Zimbabwe". Zimbabwe is not what the UK with QE looks like.
I thought Mugabe printed Zimbabwean Dollars like a crazed counterfeiter.
Its this kind of graph that, to my mind, supports Oxford.
Rise, peak, pass through. Same everywhere. Like clockwork.
Sweden has implemented almost as many social distancing measures as we have, according to the Oxford stringency index. So they have succeeded in lowering R below one. But not as far below one as countries with more stringent lockdowns, whose numbers have fallen much further.
Voluntary Social Distancing, yes, Lock-down No, the schools, shops, pubs are all open as are construction sites, factorys and so on. some more people are working form home, some factorys have had to close because they can not get parts from overseas, but no lock-down.
They also have effectually Zero chance of a second wave, no need to issue border controls, no reliance on a new track and trace government agency, and there government has not had to borrow as much, so this is sustainable.
Over on twitter i see someone has responded to a Matt Hancock tweet with.
"Currently 91 likes for your tweet Matt. Or more accurately 182 if you use the number of eyes."
I suppose PB Tories would be happy with reporting 910 ie the 910 fingers that were potentially involved.
I hate this. I use purple nitrile gloves. They come in boxes of 100. Not pairs of 50. FFS
I read that the NHS count them singularly too, this isn't just a government wheeze.
Used disposable gloves fro year in hobby engineering* - never seen disposable gloves come is anything other than boxes of X. Never pairs.
*When running machine tools, never, ever have anything that can drag you in. There are horror stories and pictures of what wedding rings can do... The old timers say no gloves - but they mean leathers. Disposable gloves just shred.
Its this kind of graph that, to my mind, supports Oxford.
Rise, peak, pass through. Same everywhere. Like clockwork.
Sweden has implemented almost as many social distancing measures as we have, according to the Oxford stringency index. So they have succeeded in lowering R below one. But not as far below one as countries with more stringent lockdowns, whose numbers have fallen much further.
This is my last post on this because, frankly, life's too short.
The graphic shows that deaths in Sweden are dropping all the time, and yet eyebrows were raised when it was revealed Stockholm only had a 7% antibody show rate, much lower than London.
Why? The Oxford explanation seems to be highly plausible to me.
Its this kind of graph that, to my mind, supports Oxford.
Rise, peak, pass through. Same everywhere. Like clockwork.
Sweden has implemented almost as many social distancing measures as we have, according to the Oxford stringency index. So they have succeeded in lowering R below one. But not as far below one as countries with more stringent lockdowns, whose numbers have fallen much further.
This is my last post on this because, frankly, life's too short.
The graphic shows that deaths in Sweden are dropping all the time, and yet eyebrows were raised when it was revealed Stockholm only had a 7% antibody show rate, much lower than London.
Why? The Oxford explanation seems to be highly plausible to me.
What can Boris achieve visiting Trump in person that can't be done via video conference?
Boris can safely shake hands....
I forgot, Boris is immune
Are we sure that Boris in non-infectious?
He could indeed be a typhoid mary.
If any thriller writers were to frequent this place I would point out that the time is ripe for a whodunnit in which someone intentionally contracts the virus by, let's say, licking the doors of Tube trains, and then visits an elderly relative from whom they hope to inherit. This would be legally murder but almost certainly unprovable.
Its this kind of graph that, to my mind, supports Oxford.
Rise, peak, pass through. Same everywhere. Like clockwork.
Sweden has implemented almost as many social distancing measures as we have, according to the Oxford stringency index. So they have succeeded in lowering R below one. But not as far below one as countries with more stringent lockdowns, whose numbers have fallen much further.
Voluntary Social Distancing, yes, Lock-down No, the schools, shops, pubs are all open as are construction sites, factorys and so on. some more people are working form home, some factorys have had to close because they can not get parts from overseas, but no lock-down.
They also have effectually Zero chance of a second wave, no need to issue border controls, no reliance on a new track and trace government agency, and there government has not had to borrow as much, so this is sustainable.
Zero chance of a second wave? Less than 10% of Swedes have had it!
Officially back to work on the 8th of June. It's been nice to get paid for 6 weeks to stay home but I'll be glad to be back to doing something all day. Plans are to have the office at 25% capacity by September and 50% by November. My company is also going to pay for all 1,200 of us to have antibody tests if the the government doesn't have a solution available by the end of June.
Does that mean 25% will do 5 days a week or that all staff will just do 1 or 2 days a week in office?
The latter, everyone does one or two days if they are comfortable with it. For people commuting in they can choose to do 4 or 5 days or WFH full time until the office is back open at 100%.
Sounds eminently sensible, and what most offices will have to do.
How on earth are places like Pret, travel WHSmiths etc going to survive?
They won't survive. Tens of thousands of business are about to go under.
I don't think people have confronted this reality yet. It's a bit like confronting death in Larkin's poem Aubade: "the mind blanks at the glare".
I am the same. Whenever I sit down and allow myself to contemplate what is coming, I suffer a mild paralysis. Like a rabbit in the lights.
All these businesses shutting down at once, right across the world, in tandem with a monumental surge in debt and defaults: FUCK. It's a bit like the first nuclear explosion, when scientists idly wondered if it might set the earth's atmosphere on fire, extinguishing all life.
We are about to see the first nuclear explosion of a fully globalised economy.
It's authors of novels which sell predominantly at airports who I worry about.
Oh, I think providers of escapism will do OK. People will REALLY want to escape.
Indeed selling escapism to people trapped in their houses with no holidays might just be the second best business to be in now, after home delivered alcohol, or maybe online porn.
So that's a no to Larkin, Eliot, etc. Pity them also.
Its this kind of graph that, to my mind, supports Oxford.
Rise, peak, pass through. Same everywhere. Like clockwork.
Sweden has implemented almost as many social distancing measures as we have, according to the Oxford stringency index. So they have succeeded in lowering R below one. But not as far below one as countries with more stringent lockdowns, whose numbers have fallen much further.
This is my last post on this because, frankly, life's too short.
The graphic shows that deaths in Sweden are dropping all the time, and yet eyebrows were raised when it was revealed Stockholm only had a 7% antibody show rate, much lower than London.
Why? The Oxford explanation seems to be highly plausible to me.
It's dropping because they have implemented social distancing. It's dropping slowly because they have been less stringent than others. Antibodies are low because most people haven't had it. That all seems like a consistent and plausible explanation to me.
Good grief, I would place myself as slightly bearish on a Trumpton defeat but those numbers look absolutely awful for him.
I also note some polling data from HYUFD on the previous thread, which again looks pretty dire for Trumpton.
Perhaps @HYUFD and @kinabalu will be proved right after all and Trumpton will get his sorry arse kicked in November.
I just think it's too good to be true, which might be colouring my judgement.
It's the economy that will doom Trump. The US hasn't put in any of the measures to protect ordinary people that we have, apart from a one-off $1200 payment that some people haven't even received. No furlough, no income support, no job protection, nothing. Unemployment may already be at Great Depression levels and will go higher, taking tens of millions off the healthcare provision tied to their employer.
Unless Biden has a complete physical or mental meltdown before November (which is not impossible), Trump is finished.
Thinking about the British and American economies, which is in a better position for a quick v shaped bounceback after corona? Is it:
A. The American economy or
B. The American economy
You should be excited that we'll be able to test the theory of government crisis intervention vs. non-intervention in real life and compare results. The US is massively dynamic, but even dynamism can't do much to fix a bomb crater in the short term.
No quite the opposite. Economic dynamism is the only thing that can fix it. Just like it is economic dynamism, and not state intervention, that has seen absolute poverty in the third world drop like a stone in recent decades.
Growth and prosperity is all. Sunak has laid that aside. The price we will pay, as today's completely horrendous economic numbers show, will be enormous. Health, education, society, you name it.
I believe in economic dynamism as much as anyone else but you can't be dynamic while the economy is shut down. And the economy will be shut down with or without a lockdown (the public will determine that if the virus is wild).
It's like suggesting we should be economically dynamic during the Blitz. We need to win the war then be dynamic.
You're arguing with a fanatic. Explaining the economics didn't shift his fixation. Pointing out the overwhelming view of those who actually know what they're talking about didn't shift his view. Numbers, facts, evidence don't shift his view.
The only information allowed is that which might confirm his view. That is elevated, privileged, and may not be subject to any testing or confirmation because it must be right.
It's like Alistair Haimes and Peter Hitchen had a child together.
The fanatic is you.
Long lockdown MUST be right. It MUST be. So must 'R'
Whatever the economic data. However rubbished Ferguson has been. Whatever the Oxford Epidemiologists think about its complete worthlessness.
It must be right,because if it isn't a person who considers himself as intelligent as you consider yourself to be is in fact an absolute fool.
Long lockdown is your religion, and guess what, there is no god.
How can 'R' be right or wrong? It's just a measure of a thing. It's like saying that speed or age or children per couple is right or wrong?
On Ferguson, hard to know how accurate the worst case was, but we're in the range of the predictions with lockdown. The Oxford Epidemiologists, if you're talking about the ones quoted as reporting an infection fatality rate of 1 in 1000 to 1 in 10000, but closer to 1 in 10000 are demonstrably wrong unless you believe that everyone in the country has already been infected (and still have to take the 1 in 1000 end of their estimates, even then)
Indeed, serology tests have already debunked that 1 in 10,000 claim.
The death toll has long since debunked the one in 10,000 claim. There are 66,670,000 or so people in the UK
If the real death rate is "no more than one in a thousand and probably closer to one in ten thousand", then the maximum death toll in the UK, if everyone was infected, would be 66,670 and probably closer to only 6,667.
Given that without the lockdown, fewer than 6,700 would have died, it must have somehow caused - nope, I can't even come up with a handwaving explanation. Just short of 10,000 died in English hospitals alone from being infected prior to lockdown - we should have seen the death rate peak well before the 8th of April and fall off rapidly if the true IFR was one in 10,000.
If about half the death toll was in English hospitals, then no more than 3,350 should have died in them in total. That would mean that the peak would have been in late March (during the time of unrestrained growth) and deaths would have fallen to close to zero per day by around Easter.
The care home deaths would have been a bit lagged from that, but we'd have seen about 2000 or 3000 care home deaths and they'd have subsided to negligible by the end of April. It would all have been over well before VE Day.
Conclusion: antibodies or no antibodies, unless someone's been going around poisoning people with something that simulates covid-19 symptoms, it ain't close to one in 10,000. For one in 1,000, pretty much everyone has had it. Despite lockdown.
What until all those furloughed workers currently enjoying days hanging out at parks and beaches find out that there is no job for them to go back to in September.
Government approval ratings will go through the floor, as people will be screaming from the rooftops they never knew that this was likely and now out of cash, and very difficult to find new employment.
terrifying article of the week:
Britain is sliding into a deflationary death spiral Negative interest rates on Government debt are a harbinger of economic destruction on a vast scale
I disagree. Deflation means we can do QE to boost money supply (and write off government debt).
As I recall from A level Economics in the 1970s, deflation is BAD. Hasn't your solution been tried before...in Zimbabwe?
Yes and no.
Yes deflation is bad, which is why QE is a good idea to prevent deflation. That we resolve our budget deficit with it is the icing on the cake not the only reason to do it.
And no, Zimbabwe never tried QE to avoid deflation. I swear any time you suggest any monetary policy its always "Zimbabwe, Zimbabwe". Zimbabwe is not what the UK with QE looks like.
Deflation is bad is repeated so much, few question it or can explain why, even less know that in the US bestrewn the civil war and first would war, the US simultaneously had deflation, massive economic growth and improvement in living standards.
I don't think I am articulate to explain why in a post on here,
Good grief, I would place myself as slightly bearish on a Trumpton defeat but those numbers look absolutely awful for him.
I also note some polling data from HYUFD on the previous thread, which again looks pretty dire for Trumpton.
Perhaps @HYUFD and @kinabalu will be proved right after all and Trumpton will get his sorry arse kicked in November.
I just think it's too good to be true, which might be colouring my judgement.
It's the economy that will doom Trump. The US hasn't put in any of the measures to protect ordinary people that we have, apart from a one-off $1200 payment that some people haven't even received. No furlough, no income support, no job protection, nothing. Unemployment may already be at Great Depression levels and will go higher, taking tens of millions off the healthcare provision tied to their employer.
Unless Biden has a complete physical or mental meltdown before November (which is not impossible), Trump is finished.
Thinking about the British and American economies, which is in a better position for a quick v shaped bounceback after corona? Is it:
A. The American economy or
B. The American economy
You should be excited that we'll be able to test the theory of government crisis intervention vs. non-intervention in real life and compare results. The US is massively dynamic, but even dynamism can't do much to fix a bomb crater in the short term.
No quite the opposite. Economic dynamism is the only thing that can fix it. Just like it is economic dynamism, and not state intervention, that has seen absolute poverty in the third world drop like a stone in recent decades.
Growth and prosperity is all. Sunak has laid that aside. The price we will pay, as today's completely horrendous economic numbers show, will be enormous. Health, education, society, you name it.
I believe in economic dynamism as much as anyone else but you can't be dynamic while the economy is shut down. And the economy will be shut down with or without a lockdown (the public will determine that if the virus is wild).
It's like suggesting we should be economically dynamic during the Blitz. We need to win the war then be dynamic.
You're arguing with a fanatic. Explaining the economics didn't shift his fixation. Pointing out the overwhelming view of those who actually know what they're talking about didn't shift his view. Numbers, facts, evidence don't shift his view.
The only information allowed is that which might confirm his view. That is elevated, privileged, and may not be subject to any testing or confirmation because it must be right.
It's like Alistair Haimes and Peter Hitchen had a child together.
The fanatic is you.
Long lockdown MUST be right. It MUST be. So must 'R'
Whatever the economic data. However rubbished Ferguson has been. Whatever the Oxford Epidemiologists think about its complete worthlessness.
It must be right,because if it isn't a person who considers himself as intelligent as you consider yourself to be is in fact an absolute fool.
Long lockdown is your religion, and guess what, there is no god.
How can 'R' be right or wrong? It's just a measure of a thing. It's like saying that speed or age or children per couple is right or wrong?
On Ferguson, hard to know how accurate the worst case was, but we're in the range of the predictions with lockdown. The Oxford Epidemiologists, if you're talking about the ones quoted as reporting an infection fatality rate of 1 in 1000 to 1 in 10000, but closer to 1 in 10000 are demonstrably wrong unless you believe that everyone in the country has already been infected (and still have to take the 1 in 1000 end of their estimates, even then)
Indeed, serology tests have already debunked that 1 in 10,000 claim.
The death toll has long since debunked the one in 10,000 claim. There are 66,670,000 or so people in the UK
If the real death rate is "no more than one in a thousand and probably closer to one in ten thousand", then the maximum death toll in the UK, if everyone was infected, would be 66,670 and probably closer to only 6,667.
Given that without the lockdown, fewer than 6,700 would have died, it must have somehow caused - nope, I can't even come up with a handwaving explanation. Just short of 10,000 died in English hospitals alone from being infected prior to lockdown - we should have seen the death rate peak well before the 8th of April and fall off rapidly if the true IFR was one in 10,000.
If about half the death toll was in English hospitals, then no more than 3,350 should have died in them in total. That would mean that the peak would have been in late March (during the time of unrestrained growth) and deaths would have fallen to close to zero per day by around Easter.
The care home deaths would have been a bit lagged from that, but we'd have seen about 2000 or 3000 care home deaths and they'd have subsided to negligible by the end of April. It would all have been over well before VE Day.
Conclusion: antibodies or no antibodies, unless someone's been going around poisoning people with something that simulates covid-19 symptoms, it ain't close to one in 10,000. For one in 1,000, pretty much everyone has had it. Despite lockdown.
Over on twitter i see someone has responded to a Matt Hancock tweet with.
"Currently 91 likes for your tweet Matt. Or more accurately 182 if you use the number of eyes."
I suppose PB Tories would be happy with reporting 910 ie the 910 fingers that were potentially involved.
I hate this. I use purple nitrile gloves. They come in boxes of 100. Not pairs of 50. FFS
I read that the NHS count them singularly too, this isn't just a government wheeze.
As any fule who watches Holby City kno. Oh, hold on, that's the hated BBC. What about House? Was that Netflix? I've got the box set but on Youtube someone has kindly edited them down to five or 10 minutes each.
ETA or even anyone who has bought latex gloves in supermarkets. Is this a new test for people who employ cleaners?
Over on twitter i see someone has responded to a Matt Hancock tweet with.
"Currently 91 likes for your tweet Matt. Or more accurately 182 if you use the number of eyes."
I suppose PB Tories would be happy with reporting 910 ie the 910 fingers that were potentially involved.
I hate this. I use purple nitrile gloves. They come in boxes of 100. Not pairs of 50. FFS
I read that the NHS count them singularly too, this isn't just a government wheeze.
As any fule who watches Holby City kno. Oh, hold on, that's the hated BBC. What about House? Was that Netflix? I've got the box set but on Youtube someone has kindly edited them down to five or 10 minutes each.
The highlight of those shows is whether or not gloves are listed in pairs or not on the boxes?
Comments
Still, beats being humiliated in the Commons, I suppose.
https://twitter.com/fckoeln_en/status/1263529995017674752?s=20
On Ferguson, hard to know how accurate the worst case was, but we're in the range of the predictions with lockdown. The Oxford Epidemiologists, if you're talking about the ones quoted as reporting an infection fatality rate of 1 in 1000 to 1 in 10000, but closer to 1 in 10000 are demonstrably wrong unless you believe that everyone in the country has already been infected (and still have to take the 1 in 1000 end of their estimates, even then)
I sort of take your meaning, but there are a lot of people out there who do inject themselves in non-medical situations I would have thought.
Defense lawyers look to reopen cases where Tara Reade testified as an expert
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/05/21/tara-reade-biden-expert-testimony-274460
...Reade stated under oath she had an undergraduate degree that her college said she never earned and appears to have exaggerated her role in Joe Biden’s office...
If you say so.
Must be. After all, you've been saying exactly the same thing ever since the start, regardless of whatever the evidence said.
-Sigh-
Not worth either of us responding to each other from here on in, I would think.
How on earth are places like Pret, travel WHSmiths etc going to survive?
https://twitter.com/DeItaOne/status/1263810563840380928?s=20
One or other maligned and marginalized grouping to benefit - the transgender community or dangerous looking dogs.
What economic data suggests that defeating this virus and getting back to normal will be economically worse than letting the virus run wild?
Although he has already had the virus it would keep him off PMQs for a week.
OK, low bar, if we must be snide (which of course we must), but nevertheless.
But once more and only once more.
All the Gupta team did was look at how the disease behaves in every country regardless of lockdown procedure.
The results were almost identical, according to them. A rise, a peak and then a big drop with no bounceback independent of any government action pre, during or post.
'like clockwork' they called it.
Antibody rates largely remains low though (EG Stockholm) leading them to an inescapable conclusion. There was a large group of people for whom the virus was simply not a thing. They were in the daily course of their lives, immune. Due to genetics or having had colds, whatever.
In their eyes the whole idea of 'infection' with Corona is therefore a very grey area. for some the virus was like radiation, for others simply like neutrinos.
But their conclusion, based on observing the virus's behaviour in many places was that it had 'passed through' Britain, and we could open the pubs tomorrow.
Therefore if we could find a way to inject (or even ingest!) an all-purpose disinfectant that killed viruses, it would clearly be invaluable for this and future pandemics.
Whoever he picks as his running mate, if Biden wins I expect them to become acting President within the next four years under the 25th Amendment.
Although before it gets to that, there is a material risk of Biden demonstrating in the debates/campaign that he should not be the candidate. Imagine if he had a 60-second brain fade - just stood there, saying nothing.... Trump has to do nothing other than say how sad he is that the Democrats put Biden up for election. 4 more years....
When we loosen our distancing, be it by mandate or by choice, the infection rate will grow again.
I'm trying Eadric! God knows I'm trying!
It baffles me that vast swathes of the economy have any perceived value at all at the moment. Is that there much spare cash swishing around the system that investors are willing to risk it?
Was 186 this time last week.
The coach is very busy, because it is not being charged for in recognition of nearly everyone staying and paying full fees.
They base that on their observations of its behaviour in many countries. In every case it is exactly the same. Rise, peak, pass through. Regardless of government action.
Why? it can only be because there is a large group who don't have antibodies but are nevertheless immune.
Rise, peak, pass through. Same everywhere. Like clockwork.
“When you have pockets of vulnerable people it might rip through those pockets in a way that it wouldn’t if the vulnerable people were more scattered within the general population.”
I mean this seems unbelievably weak.
It's just a coincidence that there are loads of deaths in places where you might expect the virus to be first... actually we've all had it/are immune.
https://twitter.com/DHSCgovuk/status/1263817035601121280?s=20
Yes deflation is bad, which is why QE is a good idea to prevent deflation. That we resolve our budget deficit with it is the icing on the cake not the only reason to do it.
And no, Zimbabwe never tried QE to avoid deflation. I swear any time you suggest any monetary policy its always "Zimbabwe, Zimbabwe". Zimbabwe is not what the UK with QE looks like.
Jacob Hornberger: (from the more fundamentalist Mesis wing of the party) The presumed forerunner, did OK no slip-ups, probably enough to keep himself in the lead, but no knock-outs, spent a lot of time criticising others mostly Jorgenson, who he probably perceives as his closest rival.
Jo Jorgensen: (from a more pragmatic wing of the party) Good Performance, lots of references to her as a sinatist, and starting a business, never mentioned that she was the only female in the race,
Vermin Supreme: (irony cadadit?) I was very impressed and now think I get the angle. he is not so much a jock candidate but using comedy as a weapon against the establishment. had the best line of the night, and depending on how many people actual see him, I think he may surprise he could win.
Judge Jim Gray, did not come over well in this format, always complaining he did not get enough spiking time, and constantly referring to his website. he has been in party for a long time and being a Judge gives him some credibility, but I don't think he is pure enough to take votes off hornburger, or pragmatic enough to take votes off Jorgenson.
John Mondu: Nice chap and probably won friends tonight by being polite and sticking to the party platform, had a good answer to the question of minimum wage but overall was not that a good communicate and I don't see him winning.
Best line of the night:
Question: 'what would you do about COVID?'
Vernin: Start declaring COVID Free Zones........Because government declared Gun Free Zones and Drug Free Zones, have worked so well
Areas of agreement, totally open boarders for all immigrants, bring all troops home, legalise all drugs and sex work, cut or abolish the Federal income tax.
Most likely to win Libertarian nomination IMHO are as listed above.
My preferred option: Jorgensen, then Vermin, then Hornberger.
Most likely to win presedancey: OK this is so unlikely that its almost silly, but I think it is just, just possible that the Vermin approach may be seen as a spot of fun and opportunity to pock fun and could become popular amongst collage kids, and so on.
The number was between 0.7 and 1 across the UK. It indicates the average number of people that will contract coronavirus from an infected person.
There is a time lag in the data though, with the R number released today relating to what was happening two to three weeks ago.
Fair enough, but to retain associate membership of the TrumpToast club - with the benefits thus accruing - you must at least just favour Biden to squeak it.
It makes no political sense whatsoever.
Yesterday y = 891e-0.049x; R² = 0.9891
Indicates the halving time has slipped by 0.3 days since the peak to 14.4 days rather than 14.1.
16-May-20 155
Was quite a poor day on the trend line though, so hopefully it can improve and it looks as if though it might from tommorow.
Friday night pint?
They also have effectually Zero chance of a second wave, no need to issue border controls, no reliance on a new track and trace government agency, and there government has not had to borrow as much, so this is sustainable.
*When running machine tools, never, ever have anything that can drag you in. There are horror stories and pictures of what wedding rings can do... The old timers say no gloves - but they mean leathers. Disposable gloves just shred.
The graphic shows that deaths in Sweden are dropping all the time, and yet eyebrows were raised when it was revealed Stockholm only had a 7% antibody show rate, much lower than London.
Why? The Oxford explanation seems to be highly plausible to me.
There are 66,670,000 or so people in the UK
If the real death rate is "no more than one in a thousand and probably closer to one in ten thousand", then the maximum death toll in the UK, if everyone was infected, would be 66,670 and probably closer to only 6,667.
Given that without the lockdown, fewer than 6,700 would have died, it must have somehow caused - nope, I can't even come up with a handwaving explanation. Just short of 10,000 died in English hospitals alone from being infected prior to lockdown - we should have seen the death rate peak well before the 8th of April and fall off rapidly if the true IFR was one in 10,000.
If about half the death toll was in English hospitals, then no more than 3,350 should have died in them in total. That would mean that the peak would have been in late March (during the time of unrestrained growth) and deaths would have fallen to close to zero per day by around Easter.
The care home deaths would have been a bit lagged from that, but we'd have seen about 2000 or 3000 care home deaths and they'd have subsided to negligible by the end of April. It would all have been over well before VE Day.
Conclusion: antibodies or no antibodies, unless someone's been going around poisoning people with something that simulates covid-19 symptoms, it ain't close to one in 10,000. For one in 1,000, pretty much everyone has had it. Despite lockdown.
Like I was riding through a corridor of whitethroat calls.
What's next?
I don't think I am articulate to explain why in a post on here,
ETA or even anyone who has bought latex gloves in supermarkets. Is this a new test for people who employ cleaners?
I might give them a miss.