I genuinely don't see how the hypothesis makes it past the basic arithmetic.
It doesn't need to. It's simply something people can grasp onto so that they can blame others for the lockdown.
If we suffer a second wave they'll forget about this entirely and switch seamlessly to something else, like, "we wouldn't have had a second wave if we'd developed herd immunity in the first" ignoring the vast number of deaths that would have required.
Scotland's First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has asked people to "use judgement" when lockdown restrictions are eased from Thursday.
Too confusing...
But no staying alert, right? Can't possibly have the same message as Westminster.
"Stay Alert" is an appropriate message for English Risk Level 2 (Scottish Phase 3) where the epidemic is basically eliminated with sporadic outbreaks. It is not the right message for Risk Level 3, where we are moving to and where the epidemic is still widespread. Messaging for Level 3 is difficult. Unlike Level 4 where you are heavily restricted and Level 2 where you can do most things with caution, at Level 3 you can do some things but not others. There needs to be quite a lot of guidance.
I think staying alert is appropriate for all levels. At no point should you not be alert.
What until all those furloughed workers currently enjoying days hanging out at parks and beaches find out that there is no job for them to go back to in September.
Government approval ratings will go through the floor, as people will be screaming from the rooftops they never knew that this was likely and now out of cash, and very difficult to find new employment.
terrifying article of the week:
Britain is sliding into a deflationary death spiral Negative interest rates on Government debt are a harbinger of economic destruction on a vast scale
I disagree. Deflation means we can do QE to boost money supply (and write off government debt).
As I recall from A level Economics in the 1970s, deflation is BAD. Hasn't your solution been tried before...in Zimbabwe?
Yes and no.
Yes deflation is bad, which is why QE is a good idea to prevent deflation. That we resolve our budget deficit with it is the icing on the cake not the only reason to do it.
And no, Zimbabwe never tried QE to avoid deflation. I swear any time you suggest any monetary policy its always "Zimbabwe, Zimbabwe". Zimbabwe is not what the UK with QE looks like.
I thought Mugabe printed Zimbabwean Dollars like a crazed counterfeiter.
Which is not what Quantitative Easing is.
There is a difference between manic printing of currency even when you have high inflation - and some Quantitative Easing during a period of below target inflation.
The Zimbabwean comparison is ridiculous. There is no comparison between the UK, a rich and successful country since the Middle Ages and his regime.
Germany between the wars might be better.
It's worth understanding *why* Germany ended up with hyperinflation. It wasn't because politicians and the Central Bank were ignorant of the risks of printing money. It was because, at every turn, printing money was the path of least resistance.
Politics, absent a truly first class leader, will always follow the path of least resistance.
It's easier to print and spend, and put off any reckoning, until tomorrow.
And nothing bad happened last time.
So every time the boundaries are pushed somewhat. Quantitive Easing worked for the GFC, it worked for CV-19, it'll work for this recession, it'll work to make sure the economy is moving before the election, it'll work because there's nothing else working.
The path of least resistance is moving, inevitably, towards the printing press.
2 weeks quarantine coming back? Nah, thats for plebs.
Johnson will jump at opportunity to go AWOL for another 2 weeks. In fact perhaps that's Dom's cunning plan - send Boris abroad every 2 weeks and he can hide for months on end.
One other thing worry remembering: the more you move to domestic supply chains, the less you have globalisation acting as a natural break on inflation.
What until all those furloughed workers currently enjoying days hanging out at parks and beaches find out that there is no job for them to go back to in September.
Government approval ratings will go through the floor, as people will be screaming from the rooftops they never knew that this was likely and now out of cash, and very difficult to find new employment.
terrifying article of the week:
Britain is sliding into a deflationary death spiral Negative interest rates on Government debt are a harbinger of economic destruction on a vast scale
I disagree. Deflation means we can do QE to boost money supply (and write off government debt).
As I recall from A level Economics in the 1970s, deflation is BAD. Hasn't your solution been tried before...in Zimbabwe?
Yes and no.
Yes deflation is bad, which is why QE is a good idea to prevent deflation. That we resolve our budget deficit with it is the icing on the cake not the only reason to do it.
And no, Zimbabwe never tried QE to avoid deflation. I swear any time you suggest any monetary policy its always "Zimbabwe, Zimbabwe". Zimbabwe is not what the UK with QE looks like.
I thought Mugabe printed Zimbabwean Dollars like a crazed counterfeiter.
Which is not what Quantitative Easing is.
There is a difference between manic printing of currency even when you have high inflation - and some Quantitative Easing during a period of below target inflation.
The Zimbabwean comparison is ridiculous. There is no comparison between the UK, a rich and successful country since the Middle Ages and his regime.
Germany between the wars might be better.
It's worth understanding *why* Germany ended up with hyperinflation. It wasn't because politicians and the Central Bank were ignorant of the risks of printing money. It was because, at every turn, printing money was the path of least resistance.
Politics, absent a truly first class leader, will always follow the path of least resistance.
It's easier to print and spend, and put off any reckoning, until tomorrow.
And nothing bad happened last time.
So every time the boundaries are pushed somewhat. Quantitive Easing worked for the GFC, it worked for CV-19, it'll work for this recession, it'll work to make sure the economy is moving before the election, it'll work because there's nothing else working.
The path of least resistance is moving, inevitably, towards the printing press.
@HYUFD is an associate member - and very welcome to use the bar on a weekday - having always said if the Dems pick Sleepy they have a great chance.
I remain hopeful, but unconvinced. Trump is a SOB and he will stop at nothing. This is going to be utterly brutal.
It will be a horrible election but IMO he cannot win. He's unelectable.
I also think (post defeat) there might need to be "special measures" to physically evict him.
I think Biden would win comfortably if the election were tomorrow but a lot can happen between now and November. I honestly dread to think what Trump will do over the next 5 months and if he loses he is going to be screaming voter fraud and inciting his moronic core to civil strife. Who would have believed that the mighty USA would come to this?
Biden's mental faculties could slip dramatically in 5 months too.
Whoever he picks as his running mate, if Biden wins I expect them to become acting President within the next four years under the 25th Amendment.
Although before it gets to that, there is a material risk of Biden demonstrating in the debates/campaign that he should not be the candidate. Imagine if he had a 60-second brain fade - just stood there, saying nothing.... Trump has to do nothing other than say how sad he is that the Democrats put Biden up for election. 4 more years....
I think the Biden mental deterioration is being overegged but it is definitely a factor.
So long as voters like the VP choice though I'm not sure it makes as much difference as you think. Let's say its Klouboucher - how many Biden voters are going to be so horrified at the prospect of her taking over that they are going to opt for Trump? Not that many I suspect.
If anti-Trump voters are pretty happy with both Biden and the VP then I can't see why concerns about Biden's mental health should be a game changer. It's not as though Trump is playing with a full deck and he is certainly in a far worse physical condition.
It does make the Veep pick so much more critical this year. They have to get it right.
The inherent unsuitability of the two main candidates on display for a term of presidency from 2021 to 2025 is quite staggering.
Deflation is bad is repeated so much, few question it or can explain why
I suspect that one reason inflation is preferred by politicians is that it allows wages to be reduced without people noticing, and then going on strike.
Its this kind of graph that, to my mind, supports Oxford.
Rise, peak, pass through. Same everywhere. Like clockwork.
Sweden has implemented almost as many social distancing measures as we have, according to the Oxford stringency index. So they have succeeded in lowering R below one. But not as far below one as countries with more stringent lockdowns, whose numbers have fallen much further.
Voluntary Social Distancing, yes, Lock-down No, the schools, shops, pubs are all open as are construction sites, factorys and so on. some more people are working form home, some factorys have had to close because they can not get parts from overseas, but no lock-down.
They also have effectually Zero chance of a second wave, no need to issue border controls, no reliance on a new track and trace government agency, and there government has not had to borrow as much, so this is sustainable.
I am not arguing for or against the Swedish approach or for or against continued lockdown here (although I would note that what works in Sweden might not work here, Swedes are highly socially minded and more trusting of authority than we are; they also have smaller average household size which naturally limits spread and a low population density outside of Stockholm). I am simply noting that the Swedish data are wholly consistent with the mainstream view of how the dynamics of infection operate. The economic hit in Sweden also looks quite sizeable, btw.
Ok, sorry, if I came across to confrontational there,
Swedes are more trusting of government advice, yes, but that is in part because there government trust them, and trust is a two way thing.
Sweden has taken a big economic hit, yes, some of that was inevitable and lot is because Sweden is a big trading nation affected by her trading partners. still I am confadantly predicting that government borrowing, unemployment, loss of GDP and so on will still be smaller than most if not all Western European nations
I agree, a lot of the economic hit in Sweden is imported, and overall they will do better than most. I don't have a problem with their approach to be honest, if I thought it could be done here as effectively I wouldn't mind if we did it. But it wouldn't work here so I'm glad we haven't. I would love to have a government I could trust, like in Sweden. In fact, I would love to be more like Sweden in almost every way, it's a great country. I wish we had a pro-European government, a decent welfare state, almost no private schools, a more progressive tax system, excellent public transport, more rights at work so it would be easier to work from home or be protected in the workplace etc etc. If I lived in a country like that I would trust the government when it says it has my best interests at heart. We spoke to some Swedish friends a couple of weeks ago, incidentally, and they said there was a lot of nervousness in Sweden about their approach. It was generally seen as a gamble. We are all trying to figure out the best way to proceed. But it needs to be guided by science and we should be confident that human lives are being prioritised above the economy (and I say that as an economist).
2 weeks quarantine coming back? Nah, thats for plebs.
Johnson will jump at opportunity to go AWOL for another 2 weeks. In fact perhaps that's Dom's cunning plan - send Boris abroad every 2 weeks and he can hide for months on end.
I don't know. I think there is real danger in being caught up in one of Trump's mad announcements and you have no idea where it is going to come from. Normally I would say Boris could bluster his way out, but I am no longer sure.
Scotland's First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has asked people to "use judgement" when lockdown restrictions are eased from Thursday.
Too confusing...
But no staying alert, right? Can't possibly have the same message as Westminster.
"Stay Alert" is an appropriate message for English Risk Level 2 (Scottish Phase 3) where the epidemic is basically eliminated with sporadic outbreaks. It is not the right message for Risk Level 3, where we are moving to and where the epidemic is still widespread. Messaging for Level 3 is difficult. Unlike Level 4 where you are heavily restricted and Level 2 where you can do most things with caution, at Level 3 you can do some things but not others. There needs to be quite a lot of guidance.
A colleague of mine suggested it should have been 'stay apart'. Seems reasonable. 'Stay home' most severe, 'stay apart' next step - going out more but still distancing, 'stay alert' after that.
What can Boris achieve visiting Trump in person that can't be done via video conference?
He can send a symbolic message by meeting him in person, like MPs are sending a message by ending remote working.
Exactly. As the medical emergency reduces, the financial one is starting to show.
We need confidence. I might not have been sure Boris was the one to lead a medical emergency, but I suspect he is the perfect one to bring confidence on getting the economy going.
Expect to see Boris in a factory, Boris eating an ice-cream, Boris pulling a pint. It will be like an election without the voting.
I don't think Sturgeon has done well at all in this crisis. If people talk of a lack of talent in the Conservatives, they are clearly ignoring the huge black hole that is behind Sturgeon. However, like Boris, she is capable of going out and bringing confidence to a certain section of the country and that will be vital for Scotland. People will follow her.
I fear for Wales. I can't imagine Drakeford inspiring confidence in anyone. I am not sure there is any Welsh politician at the moment who does that. That will also have to be Boris.
NI is different...
LOL, Tory Klaxon , SNP slump prediction
I've always assumed you were PBs parody account. No-one in real life could be that dim or lacking in self-awareness.
Deflation is bad is repeated so much, few question it or can explain why
I suspect that one reason inflation is preferred by politicians is that it allows wages to be reduced without people noticing, and then going on strike.
Isn't it simply that deflation drives further deflation. Don't spend now when you can spend less later so the economy grinds to a halt. Too simplistic?
Deflation is bad is repeated so much, few question it or can explain why
I suspect that one reason inflation is preferred by politicians is that it allows wages to be reduced without people noticing, and then going on strike.
Isn't it simply that deflation drives further deflation. Don't spend now when you can spend less later so the economy grinds to a halt. Too simplistic?
You never know we might get lucky and have asset price deflation as well as general goods inflation at the same time.
2 weeks quarantine coming back? Nah, thats for plebs.
Johnson will jump at opportunity to go AWOL for another 2 weeks. In fact perhaps that's Dom's cunning plan - send Boris abroad every 2 weeks and he can hide for months on end.
Boris being awol from the 5pm briefing spot that prior to his illness he used to regularly attend is little remarked upon. At least subconsciously in the public mind it acts to downgrade the crisis. As for Johnson it keeps him away from the critical press but is that always to his benefit? I suspect had he been attending and more switched on to sentiment perhaps he wouldn't have been outflanked by Starmer on NHS fees for foreign health workers.
Scotland's First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has asked people to "use judgement" when lockdown restrictions are eased from Thursday.
Too confusing...
But no staying alert, right? Can't possibly have the same message as Westminster.
"Stay Alert" is an appropriate message for English Risk Level 2 (Scottish Phase 3) where the epidemic is basically eliminated with sporadic outbreaks. It is not the right message for Risk Level 3, where we are moving to and where the epidemic is still widespread. Messaging for Level 3 is difficult. Unlike Level 4 where you are heavily restricted and Level 2 where you can do most things with caution, at Level 3 you can do some things but not others. There needs to be quite a lot of guidance.
I think staying alert is appropriate for all levels. At no point should you not be alert.
If you are being ask to stay at home, literally to save lives, being alert doesn't come into it. That's a mandatory and intrusive - and presumably very necessary - instruction. When the danger has apparently passed and you don't have any specific instruction except taking care, then "Stay Alert" is totally appropriate. Johnson got in trouble not because "Stay Alert" is categorically wrong; it wasn't the right message for the circumstances and people were confused by it
Scotland's First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has asked people to "use judgement" when lockdown restrictions are eased from Thursday.
Too confusing...
But no staying alert, right? Can't possibly have the same message as Westminster.
We are not in some 70's disco with John Travolta
We are really splitting hairs over "staying alert" vs "use judgement". They both mean the same thing.
Rob , as per other poster , HMG come out with some great guff, next day they start backtracking , different ones say different things, then they change things due to being unpopular so no-one has a clue what they intended. Sturgeon is crisp clear and gives the position , no-one comes out next day talking different bollox and things move along with one statement and one way to go. Their using different donkeys every day to give out the message is confusing , they have no Leader, he is usually AWOL and planning next holiday ( USA this time ). Sturgeon does it herself and gives her clear concise position, she shows she is the Leader and in full command of her brief..
Isn't it simply that deflation drives further deflation. Don't spend now when you can spend less later so the economy grinds to a halt. Too simplistic?
That seems to be a common view but I am unconvinced.
Most tech gear gets better and/or cheaper over time (effective deflation) but we rarely hold off from buying it.
2 weeks quarantine coming back? Nah, thats for plebs.
Johnson will jump at opportunity to go AWOL for another 2 weeks. In fact perhaps that's Dom's cunning plan - send Boris abroad every 2 weeks and he can hide for months on end.
Boris being awol from the 5pm briefing spot that prior to his illness he used to regularly attend is little remarked upon. At least subconsciously in the public mind it acts to downgrade the crisis. As for Johnson it keeps him away from the critical press but is that always to his benefit? I suspect had he been attending and more switched on to sentiment perhaps he wouldn't have been outflanked by Starmer on NHS fees for foreign health workers.
Over on twitter i see someone has responded to a Matt Hancock tweet with.
"Currently 91 likes for your tweet Matt. Or more accurately 182 if you use the number of eyes."
I suppose PB Tories would be happy with reporting 910 ie the 910 fingers that were potentially involved.
I hate this. I use purple nitrile gloves. They come in boxes of 100. Not pairs of 50. FFS
I read that the NHS count them singularly too, this isn't just a government wheeze.
As any fule who watches Holby City kno. Oh, hold on, that's the hated BBC. What about House? Was that Netflix? I've got the box set but on Youtube someone has kindly edited them down to five or 10 minutes each.
The highlight of those shows is whether or not gloves are listed in pairs or not on the boxes?
I might give them a miss.
When I buy a box of 100 gloves I immediately know it is 50 pairs and anybody pretending otherwise is doing a Tory.
So I have two gloves on in the lab, one gets damaged. Do I (a) remove both gloves and put two more on as they are obviously from a box of 50 pairs or (b) replace only the damaged glove from my box of 100 identical (i.e. not left and right handed) gloves?
Its not a difficult concept.
Well you would be a clatty get if you were fingering the box of gloves etc with your other contaminated , one of a pair , glove. Any health and safety conscious person would immediately bin the faulty/dirty pair , wash their hands and put on a clean pair. It is simple hygiene practice.
"In 2010, a lithium-ion battery pack with 1 kWh of capacity—enough to power an electric car for three or four miles—cost more than $1,000. By 2019, the figure had fallen to $156, according to data compiled by BloombergNEF."
Scotland's First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has asked people to "use judgement" when lockdown restrictions are eased from Thursday.
Too confusing...
But no staying alert, right? Can't possibly have the same message as Westminster.
"Stay Alert" is an appropriate message for English Risk Level 2 (Scottish Phase 3) where the epidemic is basically eliminated with sporadic outbreaks. It is not the right message for Risk Level 3, where we are moving to and where the epidemic is still widespread. Messaging for Level 3 is difficult. Unlike Level 4 where you are heavily restricted and Level 2 where you can do most things with caution, at Level 3 you can do some things but not others. There needs to be quite a lot of guidance.
I think staying alert is appropriate for all levels. At no point should you not be alert.
If you are being ask to stay at home, literally to save lives, being alert doesn't come into it. That's a mandatory and intrusive - and presumably very necessary - instruction. When the danger has apparently passed and you don't have any specific instruction except taking care, then "Stay Alert" is totally appropriate. Johnson got in trouble not because "Stay Alert" is categorically wrong; it wasn't the right message for the circumstances and people were confused by it
I should add. The Scottish government hasn't objectively handled the epidemic better than the English one, but the communications have been head and shoulders better. If the Johnson government want to know how to run an effective public health information programme, they could do worse than look North.
2 weeks quarantine coming back? Nah, thats for plebs.
Johnson will jump at opportunity to go AWOL for another 2 weeks. In fact perhaps that's Dom's cunning plan - send Boris abroad every 2 weeks and he can hide for months on end.
Boris being awol from the 5pm briefing spot that prior to his illness he used to regularly attend is little remarked upon. At least subconsciously in the public mind it acts to downgrade the crisis. As for Johnson it keeps him away from the critical press but is that always to his benefit? I suspect had he been attending and more switched on to sentiment perhaps he wouldn't have been outflanked by Starmer on NHS fees for foreign health workers.
2 weeks quarantine coming back? Nah, thats for plebs.
Johnson will jump at opportunity to go AWOL for another 2 weeks. In fact perhaps that's Dom's cunning plan - send Boris abroad every 2 weeks and he can hide for months on end.
Boris being awol from the 5pm briefing spot that prior to his illness he used to regularly attend is little remarked upon. At least subconsciously in the public mind it acts to downgrade the crisis. As for Johnson it keeps him away from the critical press but is that always to his benefit? I suspect had he been attending and more switched on to sentiment perhaps he wouldn't have been outflanked by Starmer on NHS fees for foreign health workers.
I'm not sure that figure for Boris is correct. He certainly attended at least 3 prior to his illness maybe more. However since his illness he has only bothered to turn up twice.
Scotland's First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has asked people to "use judgement" when lockdown restrictions are eased from Thursday.
Too confusing...
But no staying alert, right? Can't possibly have the same message as Westminster.
"Stay Alert" is an appropriate message for English Risk Level 2 (Scottish Phase 3) where the epidemic is basically eliminated with sporadic outbreaks. It is not the right message for Risk Level 3, where we are moving to and where the epidemic is still widespread. Messaging for Level 3 is difficult. Unlike Level 4 where you are heavily restricted and Level 2 where you can do most things with caution, at Level 3 you can do some things but not others. There needs to be quite a lot of guidance.
I think staying alert is appropriate for all levels. At no point should you not be alert.
As I say upthread, the ambiguity from Bozza and Nicola is probably deliberate.
It means lower-risk (young, fit) people expose themselves to greater 'risk' but also more sunshine, fresh air and other things that improve health; and higher risk people (older, fatter, co-morbid) expose themselves to almost no risk of catching the virus or meeting lockdown-shunning fitties.
This is exactly what you want to happen as it builds immunity in the healthy and protects the vulnerable.
The ambiguity appears to have worked in London as its young population (aka 'dickheads' according to PB Lockdownists) have built immunity and got some vitamin D while older, unfit people in areas with more vulnerable demographics have stayed indoors.
Risk segmentation is clearly the way out of this thing. Reconciling safety with social and economic needs.
2 weeks quarantine coming back? Nah, thats for plebs.
Johnson will jump at opportunity to go AWOL for another 2 weeks. In fact perhaps that's Dom's cunning plan - send Boris abroad every 2 weeks and he can hide for months on end.
Boris being awol from the 5pm briefing spot that prior to his illness he used to regularly attend is little remarked upon. At least subconsciously in the public mind it acts to downgrade the crisis. As for Johnson it keeps him away from the critical press but is that always to his benefit? I suspect had he been attending and more switched on to sentiment perhaps he wouldn't have been outflanked by Starmer on NHS fees for foreign health workers.
What until all those furloughed workers currently enjoying days hanging out at parks and beaches find out that there is no job for them to go back to in September.
Government approval ratings will go through the floor, as people will be screaming from the rooftops they never knew that this was likely and now out of cash, and very difficult to find new employment.
terrifying article of the week:
Britain is sliding into a deflationary death spiral Negative interest rates on Government debt are a harbinger of economic destruction on a vast scale
I disagree. Deflation means we can do QE to boost money supply (and write off government debt).
As I recall from A level Economics in the 1970s, deflation is BAD. Hasn't your solution been tried before...in Zimbabwe?
Yes and no.
Yes deflation is bad, which is why QE is a good idea to prevent deflation. That we resolve our budget deficit with it is the icing on the cake not the only reason to do it.
And no, Zimbabwe never tried QE to avoid deflation. I swear any time you suggest any monetary policy its always "Zimbabwe, Zimbabwe". Zimbabwe is not what the UK with QE looks like.
I thought Mugabe printed Zimbabwean Dollars like a crazed counterfeiter.
Which is not what Quantitative Easing is.
There is a difference between manic printing of currency even when you have high inflation - and some Quantitative Easing during a period of below target inflation.
The Zimbabwean comparison is ridiculous. There is no comparison between the UK, a rich and successful country since the Middle Ages and his regime.
Germany between the wars might be better.
It's worth understanding *why* Germany ended up with hyperinflation. It wasn't because politicians and the Central Bank were ignorant of the risks of printing money. It was because, at every turn, printing money was the path of least resistance.
Politics, absent a truly first class leader, will always follow the path of least resistance.
It's easier to print and spend, and put off any reckoning, until tomorrow.
And nothing bad happened last time.
So every time the boundaries are pushed somewhat. Quantitive Easing worked for the GFC, it worked for CV-19, it'll work for this recession, it'll work to make sure the economy is moving before the election, it'll work because there's nothing else working.
The path of least resistance is moving, inevitably, towards the printing press.
This explanation misses an important point about the Weimar hyperinflation, which extends to (I think) all hyperinflations that I’m aware of: Weimar Germany had significant external reparations that were demanded of by the Verseilles WWI treaty that were denominated in non-Mark currencies. These repayments were probably unsustainable right from the outset (IIRC Keynes said they would destroy Germany & got to tell everyone else "I told you so", not that it brought him or us any joy.)
Those external payments were the engine that drove the hyperinflation, because the devaluation of the currency through printing didn’t change the real value of the debts.
Of course, the inflation that results from money creation can be quite painful (e.g. see 1970s Britain) but without those external obligation in other currencies (or commodities: e.g Germany was required to make coal & wood deliveries) it’s very difficult to enter that hyperinflationary spiral, where you have to print more and more and more to pay off the same real-value obligation as your currency devalues ever further.
2 weeks quarantine coming back? Nah, thats for plebs.
Johnson will jump at opportunity to go AWOL for another 2 weeks. In fact perhaps that's Dom's cunning plan - send Boris abroad every 2 weeks and he can hide for months on end.
Boris being awol from the 5pm briefing spot that prior to his illness he used to regularly attend is little remarked upon. At least subconsciously in the public mind it acts to downgrade the crisis. As for Johnson it keeps him away from the critical press but is that always to his benefit? I suspect had he been attending and more switched on to sentiment perhaps he wouldn't have been outflanked by Starmer on NHS fees for foreign health workers.
2 weeks quarantine coming back? Nah, thats for plebs.
Johnson will jump at opportunity to go AWOL for another 2 weeks. In fact perhaps that's Dom's cunning plan - send Boris abroad every 2 weeks and he can hide for months on end.
Boris being awol from the 5pm briefing spot that prior to his illness he used to regularly attend is little remarked upon. At least subconsciously in the public mind it acts to downgrade the crisis. As for Johnson it keeps him away from the critical press but is that always to his benefit? I suspect had he been attending and more switched on to sentiment perhaps he wouldn't have been outflanked by Starmer on NHS fees for foreign health workers.
I'm not sure that figure for Boris is correct. He certainly attended at least 3 prior to his illness maybe more. However since his illness he has only bothered to turn up twice.
It has been noticeable in recent weeks how few times the daily press conference is lead by any of the big ministers. It is mostly secondary ones.
The risk of deflation is the debt trap. People will hold cash if possible if there are negative interest rates, so the real rate of interest for debt in a time of deflation is very high.
This is survivable if you're a business borrowing to invest at a time of rapid technological development, productivity growth and healthy profit margins.
Makes borrowing to buy a house a bit problematic though.
Scotland's First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has asked people to "use judgement" when lockdown restrictions are eased from Thursday.
Too confusing...
But no staying alert, right? Can't possibly have the same message as Westminster.
We are not in some 70's disco with John Travolta
We are really splitting hairs over "staying alert" vs "use judgement". They both mean the same thing.
Rob , as per other poster , HMG come out with some great guff, next day they start backtracking , different ones say different things, then they change things due to being unpopular so no-one has a clue what they intended. Sturgeon is crisp clear and gives the position , no-one comes out next day talking different bollox and things move along with one statement and one way to go. Their using different donkeys every day to give out the message is confusing , they have no Leader, he is usually AWOL and planning next holiday ( USA this time ). Sturgeon does it herself and gives her clear concise position, she shows she is the Leader and in full command of her brief..
Sturgeon quite rightly trusts no-one else, because behind her is a big useless void of talent in the SNP. Behind that, there's just a group of bigoted Little Scotlanders.
2 weeks quarantine coming back? Nah, thats for plebs.
Johnson will jump at opportunity to go AWOL for another 2 weeks. In fact perhaps that's Dom's cunning plan - send Boris abroad every 2 weeks and he can hide for months on end.
Boris being awol from the 5pm briefing spot that prior to his illness he used to regularly attend is little remarked upon. At least subconsciously in the public mind it acts to downgrade the crisis. As for Johnson it keeps him away from the critical press but is that always to his benefit? I suspect had he been attending and more switched on to sentiment perhaps he wouldn't have been outflanked by Starmer on NHS fees for foreign health workers.
One of them has a half competent cabinet, the other doesn't?
There are lies and there are lies, you cannot seriously be trying to say Westminster cabinet has any talent never mind more talent than the Scottish government. You would be laughed out of court with that whopper.
As I say upthread, the ambiguity from Bozza and Nicola is probably deliberate.
It means lower-risk (young, fit) people expose themselves to greater 'risk' but also more sunshine, fresh air and other things that improve health; and higher risk people (older, fatter, co-morbid) expose themselves to almost no risk of catching the virus or meeting lockdown-shunning fitties.
This is exactly what you want to happen as it builds immunity in the healthy and protects the vulnerable.
The ambiguity appears to have worked in London as its young population (aka 'dickheads' according to PB Lockdownists) have built immunity and got some vitamin D while older, unfit people in areas with more vulnerable demographics have stayed indoors.
Risk segmentation is clearly the way out of this thing. Reconciling safety with social and economic needs.
Maybe London should be opened up first?
Well I'm all for others getting the herd part of the herd immunity for me so knock yourselves out down there 👌
What until all those furloughed workers currently enjoying days hanging out at parks and beaches find out that there is no job for them to go back to in September.
Government approval ratings will go through the floor, as people will be screaming from the rooftops they never knew that this was likely and now out of cash, and very difficult to find new employment.
terrifying article of the week:
Britain is sliding into a deflationary death spiral Negative interest rates on Government debt are a harbinger of economic destruction on a vast scale
I disagree. Deflation means we can do QE to boost money supply (and write off government debt).
As I recall from A level Economics in the 1970s, deflation is BAD. Hasn't your solution been tried before...in Zimbabwe?
Yes and no.
Yes deflation is bad, which is why QE is a good idea to prevent deflation. That we resolve our budget deficit with it is the icing on the cake not the only reason to do it.
And no, Zimbabwe never tried QE to avoid deflation. I swear any time you suggest any monetary policy its always "Zimbabwe, Zimbabwe". Zimbabwe is not what the UK with QE looks like.
I thought Mugabe printed Zimbabwean Dollars like a crazed counterfeiter.
Which is not what Quantitative Easing is.
There is a difference between manic printing of currency even when you have high inflation - and some Quantitative Easing during a period of below target inflation.
The Zimbabwean comparison is ridiculous. There is no comparison between the UK, a rich and successful country since the Middle Ages and his regime.
Germany between the wars might be better.
It's worth understanding *why* Germany ended up with hyperinflation. It wasn't because politicians and the Central Bank were ignorant of the risks of printing money. It was because, at every turn, printing money was the path of least resistance.
Politics, absent a truly first class leader, will always follow the path of least resistance.
It's easier to print and spend, and put off any reckoning, until tomorrow.
And nothing bad happened last time.
So every time the boundaries are pushed somewhat. Quantitive Easing worked for the GFC, it worked for CV-19, it'll work for this recession, it'll work to make sure the economy is moving before the election, it'll work because there's nothing else working.
The path of least resistance is moving, inevitably, towards the printing press.
This explanation misses an important point about the Weimar hyperinflation, which extends to (I think) all hyperinflations that I’m aware of: Weimar Germany had significant external reparations that were demanded of by the Verseilles WWI treaty that were denominated in non-Mark currencies. These repayments were probably unsustainable right from the outset (IIRC Keynes said they would destroy Germany & got to tell everyone else "I told you so", not that it brought him or us any joy.)
Those external payments were the engine that drove the hyperinflation, because the devaluation of the currency through printing didn’t change the real value of the debts.
Of course, the inflation that results from money creation can be quite painful (e.g. see 1970s Britain) but without those external obligation in other currencies (or commodities: e.g Germany was required to make coal & wood deliveries) it’s very difficult to enter that hyperinflationary spiral, where you have to print more and more and more to pay off the same real-value obligation as your currency devalues ever further.
Yup, that is right with Weimar although their debt to their allies were dominated in 1913 gold Marks to get round the devaluation issue. The one advantage for hyperinflation for Weimar Germany on debt was that it effectively wiped out obligations to domestic bondholders such as those who had bought War Loans
2 weeks quarantine coming back? Nah, thats for plebs.
Johnson will jump at opportunity to go AWOL for another 2 weeks. In fact perhaps that's Dom's cunning plan - send Boris abroad every 2 weeks and he can hide for months on end.
Boris being awol from the 5pm briefing spot that prior to his illness he used to regularly attend is little remarked upon. At least subconsciously in the public mind it acts to downgrade the crisis. As for Johnson it keeps him away from the critical press but is that always to his benefit? I suspect had he been attending and more switched on to sentiment perhaps he wouldn't have been outflanked by Starmer on NHS fees for foreign health workers.
One of them has a half competent cabinet, the other doesn't?
You mean Nicola can depend on her cabinet to get on with other stuff while BJ wants to make sure that there are a series of obvious numpties for the public to identify as blameworthy? Fair enough.
@HYUFD is an associate member - and very welcome to use the bar on a weekday - having always said if the Dems pick Sleepy they have a great chance.
I remain hopeful, but unconvinced. Trump is a SOB and he will stop at nothing. This is going to be utterly brutal.
It will be a horrible election but IMO he cannot win. He's unelectable.
I also think (post defeat) there might need to be "special measures" to physically evict him.
I think Biden would win comfortably if the election were tomorrow but a lot can happen between now and November. I honestly dread to think what Trump will do over the next 5 months and if he loses he is going to be screaming voter fraud and inciting his moronic core to civil strife. Who would have believed that the mighty USA would come to this?
Biden's mental faculties could slip dramatically in 5 months too.
Whoever he picks as his running mate, if Biden wins I expect them to become acting President within the next four years under the 25th Amendment.
Although before it gets to that, there is a material risk of Biden demonstrating in the debates/campaign that he should not be the candidate. Imagine if he had a 60-second brain fade - just stood there, saying nothing.... Trump has to do nothing other than say how sad he is that the Democrats put Biden up for election. 4 more years....
I think the Biden mental deterioration is being overegged but it is definitely a factor.
So long as voters like the VP choice though I'm not sure it makes as much difference as you think. Let's say its Klouboucher - how many Biden voters are going to be so horrified at the prospect of her taking over that they are going to opt for Trump? Not that many I suspect.
If anti-Trump voters are pretty happy with both Biden and the VP then I can't see why concerns about Biden's mental health should be a game changer. It's not as though Trump is playing with a full deck and he is certainly in a far worse physical condition.
It does make the Veep pick so much more critical this year. They have to get it right.
The inherent unsuitability of the two main candidates on display for a term of presidency from 2021 to 2025 is quite staggering.
Scotland's First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has asked people to "use judgement" when lockdown restrictions are eased from Thursday.
Too confusing...
But no staying alert, right? Can't possibly have the same message as Westminster.
We are not in some 70's disco with John Travolta
We are really splitting hairs over "staying alert" vs "use judgement". They both mean the same thing.
Rob , as per other poster , HMG come out with some great guff, next day they start backtracking , different ones say different things, then they change things due to being unpopular so no-one has a clue what they intended. Sturgeon is crisp clear and gives the position , no-one comes out next day talking different bollox and things move along with one statement and one way to go. Their using different donkeys every day to give out the message is confusing , they have no Leader, he is usually AWOL and planning next holiday ( USA this time ). Sturgeon does it herself and gives her clear concise position, she shows she is the Leader and in full command of her brief..
Sturgeon quite rightly trusts no-one else, because behind her is a big useless void of talent in the SNP. Behind that, there's just a group of bigoted Little Scotlanders.
Another thick Tory trying to pretend the clowns in Westminster have anything other than space between their ears. Oh how we laughed.
2 weeks quarantine coming back? Nah, thats for plebs.
Johnson will jump at opportunity to go AWOL for another 2 weeks. In fact perhaps that's Dom's cunning plan - send Boris abroad every 2 weeks and he can hide for months on end.
Boris being awol from the 5pm briefing spot that prior to his illness he used to regularly attend is little remarked upon. At least subconsciously in the public mind it acts to downgrade the crisis. As for Johnson it keeps him away from the critical press but is that always to his benefit? I suspect had he been attending and more switched on to sentiment perhaps he wouldn't have been outflanked by Starmer on NHS fees for foreign health workers.
One of them has a half competent cabinet, the other doesn't?
The other way round. Both cabinets are incompetent, but Sturgeon is competent where Johnson isn't, at least as far as comms is concerned. Her briefings are totally on message with clear instructions. She herself is empathetic, she treats people as adults with real concerns that she shares, and she doesn't play games.
One other thing worry remembering: the more you move to domestic supply chains, the less you have globalisation acting as a natural break on inflation.
Hyperinflation is the ultimate economic horror. It consumes almost everything and everyone.
What until all those furloughed workers currently enjoying days hanging out at parks and beaches find out that there is no job for them to go back to in September.
Government approval ratings will go through the floor, as people will be screaming from the rooftops they never knew that this was likely and now out of cash, and very difficult to find new employment.
terrifying article of the week:
Britain is sliding into a deflationary death spiral Negative interest rates on Government debt are a harbinger of economic destruction on a vast scale
I disagree. Deflation means we can do QE to boost money supply (and write off government debt).
As I recall from A level Economics in the 1970s, deflation is BAD. Hasn't your solution been tried before...in Zimbabwe?
Yes and no.
Yes deflation is bad, which is why QE is a good idea to prevent deflation. That we resolve our budget deficit with it is the icing on the cake not the only reason to do it.
And no, Zimbabwe never tried QE to avoid deflation. I swear any time you suggest any monetary policy its always "Zimbabwe, Zimbabwe". Zimbabwe is not what the UK with QE looks like.
I thought Mugabe printed Zimbabwean Dollars like a crazed counterfeiter.
Which is not what Quantitative Easing is.
There is a difference between manic printing of currency even when you have high inflation - and some Quantitative Easing during a period of below target inflation.
The Zimbabwean comparison is ridiculous. There is no comparison between the UK, a rich and successful country since the Middle Ages and his regime.
Germany between the wars might be better.
It's worth understanding *why* Germany ended up with hyperinflation. It wasn't because politicians and the Central Bank were ignorant of the risks of printing money. It was because, at every turn, printing money was the path of least resistance.
Politics, absent a truly first class leader, will always follow the path of least resistance.
It's easier to print and spend, and put off any reckoning, until tomorrow.
And nothing bad happened last time.
So every time the boundaries are pushed somewhat. Quantitive Easing worked for the GFC, it worked for CV-19, it'll work for this recession, it'll work to make sure the economy is moving before the election, it'll work because there's nothing else working.
The path of least resistance is moving, inevitably, towards the printing press.
This explanation misses an important point about the Weimar hyperinflation, which extends to (I think) all hyperinflations that I’m aware of: Weimar Germany had significant external reparations that were demanded of by the Verseilles WWI treaty that were denominated in non-Mark currencies. These repayments were probably unsustainable right from the outset (IIRC Keynes said they would destroy Germany & got to tell everyone else "I told you so", not that it brought him or us any joy.)
Those external payments were the engine that drove the hyperinflation, because the devaluation of the currency through printing didn’t change the real value of the debts.
Of course, the inflation that results from money creation can be quite painful (e.g. see 1970s Britain) but without those external obligation in other currencies (or commodities: e.g Germany was required to make coal & wood deliveries) it’s very difficult to enter that hyperinflationary spiral, where you have to print more and more and more to pay off the same real-value obligation as your currency devalues ever further.
There is some evidence that the hyperinflation was actually a case of "hey, we can get rid of the debt" - only to find that the the Allies were insisting on the goldmark....
The German debt was, IIRC, less bad proportionally than they had imposed on France in 1870.
@HYUFD is an associate member - and very welcome to use the bar on a weekday - having always said if the Dems pick Sleepy they have a great chance.
I remain hopeful, but unconvinced. Trump is a SOB and he will stop at nothing. This is going to be utterly brutal.
It will be a horrible election but IMO he cannot win. He's unelectable.
I also think (post defeat) there might need to be "special measures" to physically evict him.
I think Biden would win comfortably if the election were tomorrow but a lot can happen between now and November. I honestly dread to think what Trump will do over the next 5 months and if he loses he is going to be screaming voter fraud and inciting his moronic core to civil strife. Who would have believed that the mighty USA would come to this?
Biden's mental faculties could slip dramatically in 5 months too.
Whoever he picks as his running mate, if Biden wins I expect them to become acting President within the next four years under the 25th Amendment.
Although before it gets to that, there is a material risk of Biden demonstrating in the debates/campaign that he should not be the candidate. Imagine if he had a 60-second brain fade - just stood there, saying nothing.... Trump has to do nothing other than say how sad he is that the Democrats put Biden up for election. 4 more years....
I think the Biden mental deterioration is being overegged but it is definitely a factor.
So long as voters like the VP choice though I'm not sure it makes as much difference as you think. Let's say its Klouboucher - how many Biden voters are going to be so horrified at the prospect of her taking over that they are going to opt for Trump? Not that many I suspect.
If anti-Trump voters are pretty happy with both Biden and the VP then I can't see why concerns about Biden's mental health should be a game changer. It's not as though Trump is playing with a full deck and he is certainly in a far worse physical condition.
It does make the Veep pick so much more critical this year. They have to get it right.
The inherent unsuitability of the two main candidates on display for a term of presidency from 2021 to 2025 is quite staggering.
To an extent but there is no equivalence for me, anybody would get my vote over Trump.
As I say upthread, the ambiguity from Bozza and Nicola is probably deliberate.
It means lower-risk (young, fit) people expose themselves to greater 'risk' but also more sunshine, fresh air and other things that improve health; and higher risk people (older, fatter, co-morbid) expose themselves to almost no risk of catching the virus or meeting lockdown-shunning fitties.
This is exactly what you want to happen as it builds immunity in the healthy and protects the vulnerable.
The ambiguity appears to have worked in London as its young population (aka 'dickheads' according to PB Lockdownists) have built immunity and got some vitamin D while older, unfit people in areas with more vulnerable demographics have stayed indoors.
Risk segmentation is clearly the way out of this thing. Reconciling safety with social and economic needs.
Maybe London should be opened up first?
Well I'm all for others getting the herd part of the herd immunity for me so knock yourselves out down there 👌
Yes. MY personal CV19 goal is not to contribute to herd immunity. Others' mileage varies.
2 weeks quarantine coming back? Nah, thats for plebs.
Johnson will jump at opportunity to go AWOL for another 2 weeks. In fact perhaps that's Dom's cunning plan - send Boris abroad every 2 weeks and he can hide for months on end.
Boris being awol from the 5pm briefing spot that prior to his illness he used to regularly attend is little remarked upon. At least subconsciously in the public mind it acts to downgrade the crisis. As for Johnson it keeps him away from the critical press but is that always to his benefit? I suspect had he been attending and more switched on to sentiment perhaps he wouldn't have been outflanked by Starmer on NHS fees for foreign health workers.
One of them has a half competent cabinet, the other doesn't?
There are lies and there are lies, you cannot seriously be trying to say Westminster cabinet has any talent never mind more talent than the Scottish government. You would be laughed out of court with that whopper.
Which stars in the Scottish administration do you particularly admire?
Yup, that is right with Weimar although their debt to their allies were dominated in 1913 gold Marks to get round the devaluation issue. The one advantage for hyperinflation for Weimar Germany on debt was that it effectively wiped out obligations to domestic bondholders such as those who had bought War Loans
Ironically, the same was true of the victor economies - in the aggregate they held significant Mark deposits which were completely devalued by the hyperinflation that their own governments caused. Some economists have calculated that this devaluation (combined with defaults on loans) actually exceeded the value of the reparations that Germany did make: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_I_reparations#Amount_paid_by_Germany
The demand for reparations, whilst understandable, was an astonishingly self-destructive policy in the end - it gained the victor economies next to nothing, whilst destroying the German economy via the whirlwind of hyperinflation.
2 weeks quarantine coming back? Nah, thats for plebs.
Johnson will jump at opportunity to go AWOL for another 2 weeks. In fact perhaps that's Dom's cunning plan - send Boris abroad every 2 weeks and he can hide for months on end.
Boris being awol from the 5pm briefing spot that prior to his illness he used to regularly attend is little remarked upon. At least subconsciously in the public mind it acts to downgrade the crisis. As for Johnson it keeps him away from the critical press but is that always to his benefit? I suspect had he been attending and more switched on to sentiment perhaps he wouldn't have been outflanked by Starmer on NHS fees for foreign health workers.
One of them has a half competent cabinet, the other doesn't?
You mean Nicola can depend on her cabinet to get on with other stuff while BJ wants to make sure that there are a series of obvious numpties for the public to identify as blameworthy? Fair enough.
Which stars in the Scottish administration do you particularly admire?
Starmer's numbers looking good compared to every Labour leader since Blair.
There's a lot of relief going on that one can now support Labour without being accused of being an anti-semitic, trot who is also an unpatriotic hater of their own country.
Scotland's First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has asked people to "use judgement" when lockdown restrictions are eased from Thursday.
Too confusing...
But no staying alert, right? Can't possibly have the same message as Westminster.
We are not in some 70's disco with John Travolta
We are really splitting hairs over "staying alert" vs "use judgement". They both mean the same thing.
Rob , as per other poster , HMG come out with some great guff, next day they start backtracking , different ones say different things, then they change things due to being unpopular so no-one has a clue what they intended. Sturgeon is crisp clear and gives the position , no-one comes out next day talking different bollox and things move along with one statement and one way to go. Their using different donkeys every day to give out the message is confusing , they have no Leader, he is usually AWOL and planning next holiday ( USA this time ). Sturgeon does it herself and gives her clear concise position, she shows she is the Leader and in full command of her brief..
Sturgeon quite rightly trusts no-one else, because behind her is a big useless void of talent in the SNP. Behind that, there's just a group of bigoted Little Scotlanders.
Another thick Tory trying to pretend the clowns in Westminster have anything other than space between their ears. Oh how we laughed.
He aims. He shoots. He misses again. Amazing how you think deflecting a point about the SNP onto Westminster somehow wins an argument. It might work with other bigoted Little Scotlanders, but it doesn't work outside the cult.
When Salmond was in charge, it was clear Sturgeon was the successor. With Sturgeon, there is no-one behind her. The cupboard is empty. Her SNP colleagues in Holyrood are talentless, clueless and useless.
Yup, that is right with Weimar although their debt to their allies were dominated in 1913 gold Marks to get round the devaluation issue. The one advantage for hyperinflation for Weimar Germany on debt was that it effectively wiped out obligations to domestic bondholders such as those who had bought War Loans
Ironically, the same was true of the victor economies - in the aggregate they held significant Mark deposits which were completely devalued by the hyperinflation that their own governments caused. Some economists have calculated that this devaluation (combined with defaults on loans) actually exceeded the value of the reparations that Germany did make: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_I_reparations#Amount_paid_by_Germany
The demand for reparations, whilst understandable, was an astonishingly self-destructive policy in the end - it gained the victor economies next to nothing, whilst destroying the German economy via the whirlwind of hyperinflation.
Ironically, it probably would have been better for Europe long-term if the war had taken place in a pre-democratic age and any peace would have been based on rational lines. Unfortunately, by 1918, no winner could afford to be generous to the loser.
2 weeks quarantine coming back? Nah, thats for plebs.
Johnson will jump at opportunity to go AWOL for another 2 weeks. In fact perhaps that's Dom's cunning plan - send Boris abroad every 2 weeks and he can hide for months on end.
Boris being awol from the 5pm briefing spot that prior to his illness he used to regularly attend is little remarked upon. At least subconsciously in the public mind it acts to downgrade the crisis. As for Johnson it keeps him away from the critical press but is that always to his benefit? I suspect had he been attending and more switched on to sentiment perhaps he wouldn't have been outflanked by Starmer on NHS fees for foreign health workers.
One of them has a half competent cabinet, the other doesn't?
You mean Nicola can depend on her cabinet to get on with other stuff while BJ wants to make sure that there are a series of obvious numpties for the public to identify as blameworthy? Fair enough.
Which stars in the Scottish administration do you particularly admire?
Personally I like Mike Russell. Yousaf can be a bit slick but does seem to knock his pan in, bit early to tell with Kate Forbes but she's hit the ground running, Freeman handles a difficult job fairly well. I think several of the others have admirable qualities.
Now, lets have your top 3 from the ministry of all the talents (sic).
As I say upthread, the ambiguity from Bozza and Nicola is probably deliberate.
It means lower-risk (young, fit) people expose themselves to greater 'risk' but also more sunshine, fresh air and other things that improve health; and higher risk people (older, fatter, co-morbid) expose themselves to almost no risk of catching the virus or meeting lockdown-shunning fitties.
This is exactly what you want to happen as it builds immunity in the healthy and protects the vulnerable.
The ambiguity appears to have worked in London as its young population (aka 'dickheads' according to PB Lockdownists) have built immunity and got some vitamin D while older, unfit people in areas with more vulnerable demographics have stayed indoors.
Risk segmentation is clearly the way out of this thing. Reconciling safety with social and economic needs.
Maybe London should be opened up first?
Well I'm all for others getting the herd part of the herd immunity for me so knock yourselves out down there 👌
Well I don't know exactly how old you are Pulp – but I think you are under 40 and presumably fit and healthy so the risks to you from Covid-19 are absolutely tiny?
2 weeks quarantine coming back? Nah, thats for plebs.
Johnson will jump at opportunity to go AWOL for another 2 weeks. In fact perhaps that's Dom's cunning plan - send Boris abroad every 2 weeks and he can hide for months on end.
Boris being awol from the 5pm briefing spot that prior to his illness he used to regularly attend is little remarked upon. At least subconsciously in the public mind it acts to downgrade the crisis. As for Johnson it keeps him away from the critical press but is that always to his benefit? I suspect had he been attending and more switched on to sentiment perhaps he wouldn't have been outflanked by Starmer on NHS fees for foreign health workers.
One of them has a half competent cabinet, the other doesn't?
Even if that were true, and "half-competent" is a bit of a stretch, Boris has a reputation for being lazy and dodging scrutiny so he's not going to get the benefit of the doubt.
Scotland's First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has asked people to "use judgement" when lockdown restrictions are eased from Thursday.
Too confusing...
But no staying alert, right? Can't possibly have the same message as Westminster.
We are not in some 70's disco with John Travolta
We are really splitting hairs over "staying alert" vs "use judgement". They both mean the same thing.
Rob , as per other poster , HMG come out with some great guff, next day they start backtracking , different ones say different things, then they change things due to being unpopular so no-one has a clue what they intended. Sturgeon is crisp clear and gives the position , no-one comes out next day talking different bollox and things move along with one statement and one way to go. Their using different donkeys every day to give out the message is confusing , they have no Leader, he is usually AWOL and planning next holiday ( USA this time ). Sturgeon does it herself and gives her clear concise position, she shows she is the Leader and in full command of her brief..
Sturgeon quite rightly trusts no-one else, because behind her is a big useless void of talent in the SNP. Behind that, there's just a group of bigoted Little Scotlanders.
Another thick Tory trying to pretend the clowns in Westminster have anything other than space between their ears. Oh how we laughed.
He aims. He shoots. He misses again. Amazing how you think deflecting a point about the SNP onto Westminster somehow wins an argument. It might work with other bigoted Little Scotlanders, but it doesn't work outside the cult.
When Salmond was in charge, it was clear Sturgeon was the successor. With Sturgeon, there is no-one behind her. The cupboard is empty. Her SNP colleagues in Holyrood are talentless, clueless and useless.
The Scottish cabinet is useless. TBF, and I'm not a supporter of the SNP, the Johnson cabinet is worse. Not only are they all incompetent, but in too many cases including Johnson himself, deeply dishonest, and in a couple of case actually malevolent.
The risk of deflation is the debt trap. People will hold cash if possible if there are negative interest rates.
But surely debt is cheap at very low interest rates?
I also suspect that most people, seeing their pile of cash shrink in the bank, would spend it on assets.
Problem is your debt doesn't deflate away. If you have a £100K mortgage, inflation is 20%, your wages are seeing 20% growth, then the real value of your fixed mortgage debt depreciates rapidly. It is what happened with the London property market in the 1970s - those who had bought houses in the 1960s suddenly saw themselves virtually debt free.
As I say upthread, the ambiguity from Bozza and Nicola is probably deliberate.
It means lower-risk (young, fit) people expose themselves to greater 'risk' but also more sunshine, fresh air and other things that improve health; and higher risk people (older, fatter, co-morbid) expose themselves to almost no risk of catching the virus or meeting lockdown-shunning fitties.
This is exactly what you want to happen as it builds immunity in the healthy and protects the vulnerable.
The ambiguity appears to have worked in London as its young population (aka 'dickheads' according to PB Lockdownists) have built immunity and got some vitamin D while older, unfit people in areas with more vulnerable demographics have stayed indoors.
Risk segmentation is clearly the way out of this thing. Reconciling safety with social and economic needs.
Maybe London should be opened up first?
Well I'm all for others getting the herd part of the herd immunity for me so knock yourselves out down there 👌
Yes. MY personal CV19 goal is not to contribute to herd immunity. Others' mileage varies.
Again, how old are you? If you are fit and healthy and under 60 years old, the risks to you are tiny.
Don't know if this has been posted or not, as reported by CNN:
"35% of novel coronavirus infections are asymptomatic and 0.4% of people who show symptoms may die, according to the US CDC’s new "best estimates""
If this is true, I feel somewhat vindicated, as this is where, back in January/February, I predicted IFR would end up, based on the 3-4% IFR of those then being tested with PCR.
This is not to diminish the importance of countermeasures being taken, particularly good hand and respiratory hygiene, and social distancing and face mask-wearing (especially indoors for both).
In other potentially good news, the CDC is now saying that fomites (contaminated objects and surfaces) are not thought to be a major transmission route.
As I say upthread, the ambiguity from Bozza and Nicola is probably deliberate.
It means lower-risk (young, fit) people expose themselves to greater 'risk' but also more sunshine, fresh air and other things that improve health; and higher risk people (older, fatter, co-morbid) expose themselves to almost no risk of catching the virus or meeting lockdown-shunning fitties.
This is exactly what you want to happen as it builds immunity in the healthy and protects the vulnerable.
The ambiguity appears to have worked in London as its young population (aka 'dickheads' according to PB Lockdownists) have built immunity and got some vitamin D while older, unfit people in areas with more vulnerable demographics have stayed indoors.
Risk segmentation is clearly the way out of this thing. Reconciling safety with social and economic needs.
Maybe London should be opened up first?
Well I'm all for others getting the herd part of the herd immunity for me so knock yourselves out down there 👌
Yes. MY personal CV19 goal is not to contribute to herd immunity. Others' mileage varies.
Again, how old are you? If you are fit and healthy and under 60 years old, the risks to you are tiny.
Of dieing. I just don't fancy getting it in the first place based off of others' experience.
As I say upthread, the ambiguity from Bozza and Nicola is probably deliberate.
It means lower-risk (young, fit) people expose themselves to greater 'risk' but also more sunshine, fresh air and other things that improve health; and higher risk people (older, fatter, co-morbid) expose themselves to almost no risk of catching the virus or meeting lockdown-shunning fitties.
This is exactly what you want to happen as it builds immunity in the healthy and protects the vulnerable.
The ambiguity appears to have worked in London as its young population (aka 'dickheads' according to PB Lockdownists) have built immunity and got some vitamin D while older, unfit people in areas with more vulnerable demographics have stayed indoors.
Risk segmentation is clearly the way out of this thing. Reconciling safety with social and economic needs.
Maybe London should be opened up first?
Well I'm all for others getting the herd part of the herd immunity for me so knock yourselves out down there 👌
Yes. MY personal CV19 goal is not to contribute to herd immunity. Others' mileage varies.
Again, how old are you? If you are fit and healthy and under 60 years old, the risks to you are tiny.
There remains a question about whether it might have some prophylactic effect, but quite honestly the urgent need is for clinical trials of more promising compounds.
As I say upthread, the ambiguity from Bozza and Nicola is probably deliberate.
It means lower-risk (young, fit) people expose themselves to greater 'risk' but also more sunshine, fresh air and other things that improve health; and higher risk people (older, fatter, co-morbid) expose themselves to almost no risk of catching the virus or meeting lockdown-shunning fitties.
This is exactly what you want to happen as it builds immunity in the healthy and protects the vulnerable.
The ambiguity appears to have worked in London as its young population (aka 'dickheads' according to PB Lockdownists) have built immunity and got some vitamin D while older, unfit people in areas with more vulnerable demographics have stayed indoors.
Risk segmentation is clearly the way out of this thing. Reconciling safety with social and economic needs.
Maybe London should be opened up first?
Well I'm all for others getting the herd part of the herd immunity for me so knock yourselves out down there 👌
Yes. MY personal CV19 goal is not to contribute to herd immunity. Others' mileage varies.
Again, how old are you? If you are fit and healthy and under 60 years old, the risks to you are tiny.
As I say upthread, the ambiguity from Bozza and Nicola is probably deliberate.
It means lower-risk (young, fit) people expose themselves to greater 'risk' but also more sunshine, fresh air and other things that improve health; and higher risk people (older, fatter, co-morbid) expose themselves to almost no risk of catching the virus or meeting lockdown-shunning fitties.
This is exactly what you want to happen as it builds immunity in the healthy and protects the vulnerable.
The ambiguity appears to have worked in London as its young population (aka 'dickheads' according to PB Lockdownists) have built immunity and got some vitamin D while older, unfit people in areas with more vulnerable demographics have stayed indoors.
Risk segmentation is clearly the way out of this thing. Reconciling safety with social and economic needs.
Maybe London should be opened up first?
Well I'm all for others getting the herd part of the herd immunity for me so knock yourselves out down there 👌
Yes. MY personal CV19 goal is not to contribute to herd immunity. Others' mileage varies.
Again, how old are you? If you are fit and healthy and under 60 years old, the risks to you are tiny.
Does that make you an anti-vaxxer, FF43?
Not at all. But I am anti-nasty diseases. Not too keen on bubonic plague, ebola either and the risk of getting them are "tinier"
2 weeks quarantine coming back? Nah, thats for plebs.
Johnson will jump at opportunity to go AWOL for another 2 weeks. In fact perhaps that's Dom's cunning plan - send Boris abroad every 2 weeks and he can hide for months on end.
Boris being awol from the 5pm briefing spot that prior to his illness he used to regularly attend is little remarked upon. At least subconsciously in the public mind it acts to downgrade the crisis. As for Johnson it keeps him away from the critical press but is that always to his benefit? I suspect had he been attending and more switched on to sentiment perhaps he wouldn't have been outflanked by Starmer on NHS fees for foreign health workers.
One of them has a half competent cabinet, the other doesn't?
Even if that were true, and "half-competent" is a bit of a stretch, Boris has a reputation for being lazy and dodging scrutiny so he's not going to get the benefit of the doubt.
Dodging scrutiny makes you less alert to tank traps. Avoiding the likes of C4, GMB etc might make life easier but the two PMs with three electoral successes Thatcher and Blair didn't have a reputation of running away from scrutiny.
It is what happened with the London property market in the 1970s - those who had bought houses in the 1960s suddenly saw themselves virtually debt free.
As I say upthread, the ambiguity from Bozza and Nicola is probably deliberate.
It means lower-risk (young, fit) people expose themselves to greater 'risk' but also more sunshine, fresh air and other things that improve health; and higher risk people (older, fatter, co-morbid) expose themselves to almost no risk of catching the virus or meeting lockdown-shunning fitties.
This is exactly what you want to happen as it builds immunity in the healthy and protects the vulnerable.
The ambiguity appears to have worked in London as its young population (aka 'dickheads' according to PB Lockdownists) have built immunity and got some vitamin D while older, unfit people in areas with more vulnerable demographics have stayed indoors.
Risk segmentation is clearly the way out of this thing. Reconciling safety with social and economic needs.
Maybe London should be opened up first?
Well I'm all for others getting the herd part of the herd immunity for me so knock yourselves out down there 👌
Yes. MY personal CV19 goal is not to contribute to herd immunity. Others' mileage varies.
Again, how old are you? If you are fit and healthy and under 60 years old, the risks to you are tiny.
Of dieing. I just don't fancy getting it in the first place based off of others' experience.
What's a bit of permanent lung damage when it comes to the greater good of the economy & country?
Yup, that is right with Weimar although their debt to their allies were dominated in 1913 gold Marks to get round the devaluation issue. The one advantage for hyperinflation for Weimar Germany on debt was that it effectively wiped out obligations to domestic bondholders such as those who had bought War Loans
Ironically, the same was true of the victor economies - in the aggregate they held significant Mark deposits which were completely devalued by the hyperinflation that their own governments caused. Some economists have calculated that this devaluation (combined with defaults on loans) actually exceeded the value of the reparations that Germany did make: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_I_reparations#Amount_paid_by_Germany
The demand for reparations, whilst understandable, was an astonishingly self-destructive policy in the end - it gained the victor economies next to nothing, whilst destroying the German economy via the whirlwind of hyperinflation.
I used the sentence “The net amount that Germany repaid as a result of Reparations can only be calculated using formulae of Byzantine complexity” in an essay once. It is literally the only thing I remember from my history degree because my tutorial partner mercilessly ripped the shit out of its pretentiousness.
As I say upthread, the ambiguity from Bozza and Nicola is probably deliberate.
It means lower-risk (young, fit) people expose themselves to greater 'risk' but also more sunshine, fresh air and other things that improve health; and higher risk people (older, fatter, co-morbid) expose themselves to almost no risk of catching the virus or meeting lockdown-shunning fitties.
This is exactly what you want to happen as it builds immunity in the healthy and protects the vulnerable.
The ambiguity appears to have worked in London as its young population (aka 'dickheads' according to PB Lockdownists) have built immunity and got some vitamin D while older, unfit people in areas with more vulnerable demographics have stayed indoors.
Risk segmentation is clearly the way out of this thing. Reconciling safety with social and economic needs.
Maybe London should be opened up first?
Well I'm all for others getting the herd part of the herd immunity for me so knock yourselves out down there 👌
Yes. MY personal CV19 goal is not to contribute to herd immunity. Others' mileage varies.
Again, how old are you? If you are fit and healthy and under 60 years old, the risks to you are tiny.
Of dieing. I just don't fancy getting it in the first place based off of others' experience.
Exactly. My daughter's ex-boyfriend (26 years old, healthy, and fit as a horse) had it. Several weeks later, he's still not back to normal.
"Unlikely to actually die" covers a multitude of sins.
I really don't know what they are playing at with it. Either they think it is a heritage asset which is in desperate need of refurbishment, given it already costs huge amounts to maintain, or they should just go ahead and bulldoze the place. And while some do want the latter, it'd be better for them to just have the guts to either let it fall to bits or commit to fixing it already, not just kick the can endlessly.
What until all those furloughed workers currently enjoying days hanging out at parks and beaches find out that there is no job for them to go back to in September.
Government approval ratings will go through the floor, as people will be screaming from the rooftops they never knew that this was likely and now out of cash, and very difficult to find new employment.
terrifying article of the week:
Britain is sliding into a deflationary death spiral Negative interest rates on Government debt are a harbinger of economic destruction on a vast scale
I disagree. Deflation means we can do QE to boost money supply (and write off government debt).
As I recall from A level Economics in the 1970s, deflation is BAD. Hasn't your solution been tried before...in Zimbabwe?
Yes and no.
Yes deflation is bad, which is why QE is a good idea to prevent deflation. That we resolve our budget deficit with it is the icing on the cake not the only reason to do it.
And no, Zimbabwe never tried QE to avoid deflation. I swear any time you suggest any monetary policy its always "Zimbabwe, Zimbabwe". Zimbabwe is not what the UK with QE looks like.
I thought Mugabe printed Zimbabwean Dollars like a crazed counterfeiter.
Which is not what Quantitative Easing is.
There is a difference between manic printing of currency even when you have high inflation - and some Quantitative Easing during a period of below target inflation.
The Zimbabwean comparison is ridiculous. There is no comparison between the UK, a rich and successful country since the Middle Ages and his regime.
Germany between the wars might be better.
It's worth understanding *why* Germany ended up with hyperinflation. It wasn't because politicians and the Central Bank were ignorant of the risks of printing money. It was because, at every turn, printing money was the path of least resistance.
Politics, absent a truly first class leader, will always follow the path of least resistance.
It's easier to print and spend, and put off any reckoning, until tomorrow.
And nothing bad happened last time.
So every time the boundaries are pushed somewhat. Quantitive Easing worked for the GFC, it worked for CV-19, it'll work for this recession, it'll work to make sure the economy is moving before the election, it'll work because there's nothing else working.
The path of least resistance is moving, inevitably, towards the printing press.
Isn't that exactly what happened with borrowing too?
Borrowing was considered the easy option and it worked so was pushed more and more until Gordon Brown went reckless and unprecedentedly maxed out borrowing at the height of our growth period prior to the crash so that when the crash did come the deficit after the crash was eye watering.
Over on twitter i see someone has responded to a Matt Hancock tweet with.
"Currently 91 likes for your tweet Matt. Or more accurately 182 if you use the number of eyes."
I suppose PB Tories would be happy with reporting 910 ie the 910 fingers that were potentially involved.
I hate this. I use purple nitrile gloves. They come in boxes of 100. Not pairs of 50. FFS
I read that the NHS count them singularly too, this isn't just a government wheeze.
As any fule who watches Holby City kno. Oh, hold on, that's the hated BBC. What about House? Was that Netflix? I've got the box set but on Youtube someone has kindly edited them down to five or 10 minutes each.
The highlight of those shows is whether or not gloves are listed in pairs or not on the boxes?
I might give them a miss.
When I buy a box of 100 gloves I immediately know it is 50 pairs and anybody pretending otherwise is doing a Tory.
So I have two gloves on in the lab, one gets damaged. Do I (a) remove both gloves and put two more on as they are obviously from a box of 50 pairs or (b) replace only the damaged glove from my box of 100 identical (i.e. not left and right handed) gloves?
Its not a difficult concept.
Well you would be a clatty get if you were fingering the box of gloves etc with your other contaminated , one of a pair , glove. Any health and safety conscious person would immediately bin the faulty/dirty pair , wash their hands and put on a clean pair. It is simple hygiene practice.
Unbelievable. Clearly you've never worked in a lab. You can tear a glove by accident before being near to any hazard. Not all gloves are for sterile, clinical settings. What is the counting practice in the marvellous Scottish Health Service?
Scotland's First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has asked people to "use judgement" when lockdown restrictions are eased from Thursday.
Too confusing...
But no staying alert, right? Can't possibly have the same message as Westminster.
We are not in some 70's disco with John Travolta
We are really splitting hairs over "staying alert" vs "use judgement". They both mean the same thing.
Rob , as per other poster , HMG come out with some great guff, next day they start backtracking , different ones say different things, then they change things due to being unpopular so no-one has a clue what they intended. Sturgeon is crisp clear and gives the position , no-one comes out next day talking different bollox and things move along with one statement and one way to go. Their using different donkeys every day to give out the message is confusing , they have no Leader, he is usually AWOL and planning next holiday ( USA this time ). Sturgeon does it herself and gives her clear concise position, she shows she is the Leader and in full command of her brief..
Sturgeon quite rightly trusts no-one else, because behind her is a big useless void of talent in the SNP. Behind that, there's just a group of bigoted Little Scotlanders.
Another thick Tory trying to pretend the clowns in Westminster have anything other than space between their ears. Oh how we laughed.
He aims. He shoots. He misses again. Amazing how you think deflecting a point about the SNP onto Westminster somehow wins an argument. It might work with other bigoted Little Scotlanders, but it doesn't work outside the cult.
When Salmond was in charge, it was clear Sturgeon was the successor. With Sturgeon, there is no-one behind her. The cupboard is empty. Her SNP colleagues in Holyrood are talentless, clueless and useless.
The Scottish cabinet is useless. TBF, and I'm not a supporter of the SNP, the Johnson cabinet is worse. Not only are they all incompetent, but in too many cases including Johnson himself, deeply dishonest, and in a couple of case actually malevolent.
The SNP Holyrood cabinet make the Lib Dem frontbench look like a team of intellectual giants.
SNP have more talent in Westminster, which in itself is pretty telling.
Yup, that is right with Weimar although their debt to their allies were dominated in 1913 gold Marks to get round the devaluation issue. The one advantage for hyperinflation for Weimar Germany on debt was that it effectively wiped out obligations to domestic bondholders such as those who had bought War Loans
Ironically, the same was true of the victor economies - in the aggregate they held significant Mark deposits which were completely devalued by the hyperinflation that their own governments caused. Some economists have calculated that this devaluation (combined with defaults on loans) actually exceeded the value of the reparations that Germany did make: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_I_reparations#Amount_paid_by_Germany
The demand for reparations, whilst understandable, was an astonishingly self-destructive policy in the end - it gained the victor economies next to nothing, whilst destroying the German economy via the whirlwind of hyperinflation.
I used the sentence “The net amount that Germany repaid as a result of Reparations can only be calculated using formulae of Byzantine complexity” in an essay once. It is literally the only thing I remember from my history degree because my tutorial partner mercilessly ripped the shit out of its pretentiousness.
Don't know if this has been posted or not, as reported by CNN:
"35% of novel coronavirus infections are asymptomatic and 0.4% of people who show symptoms may die, according to the US CDC’s new "best estimates""
If this is true, I feel somewhat vindicated, as this is where, back in January/February, I predicted IFR would end up, based on the 3-4% IFR of those then being tested with PCR.
This is not to diminish the importance of countermeasures being taken, particularly good hand and respiratory hygiene, and social distancing and face mask-wearing (especially indoors for both).
In other potentially good news, the CDC is now saying that fomites (contaminated objects and surfaces) are not thought to be a major transmission route.
35% asymptomatic is much closer to validating Ferguson's model than Oxford.
As I say upthread, the ambiguity from Bozza and Nicola is probably deliberate.
It means lower-risk (young, fit) people expose themselves to greater 'risk' but also more sunshine, fresh air and other things that improve health; and higher risk people (older, fatter, co-morbid) expose themselves to almost no risk of catching the virus or meeting lockdown-shunning fitties.
This is exactly what you want to happen as it builds immunity in the healthy and protects the vulnerable.
The ambiguity appears to have worked in London as its young population (aka 'dickheads' according to PB Lockdownists) have built immunity and got some vitamin D while older, unfit people in areas with more vulnerable demographics have stayed indoors.
Risk segmentation is clearly the way out of this thing. Reconciling safety with social and economic needs.
Maybe London should be opened up first?
Well I'm all for others getting the herd part of the herd immunity for me so knock yourselves out down there 👌
Yes. MY personal CV19 goal is not to contribute to herd immunity. Others' mileage varies.
Again, how old are you? If you are fit and healthy and under 60 years old, the risks to you are tiny.
As I say upthread, the ambiguity from Bozza and Nicola is probably deliberate.
It means lower-risk (young, fit) people expose themselves to greater 'risk' but also more sunshine, fresh air and other things that improve health; and higher risk people (older, fatter, co-morbid) expose themselves to almost no risk of catching the virus or meeting lockdown-shunning fitties.
This is exactly what you want to happen as it builds immunity in the healthy and protects the vulnerable.
The ambiguity appears to have worked in London as its young population (aka 'dickheads' according to PB Lockdownists) have built immunity and got some vitamin D while older, unfit people in areas with more vulnerable demographics have stayed indoors.
Risk segmentation is clearly the way out of this thing. Reconciling safety with social and economic needs.
Maybe London should be opened up first?
Well I'm all for others getting the herd part of the herd immunity for me so knock yourselves out down there 👌
Yes. MY personal CV19 goal is not to contribute to herd immunity. Others' mileage varies.
Again, how old are you? If you are fit and healthy and under 60 years old, the risks to you are tiny.
Does that make you an anti-vaxxer, FF43?
Not at all. But I am anti-nasty diseases. Not too keen on bubonic plague, ebola either and the risk of getting them are "tinier"
What until all those furloughed workers currently enjoying days hanging out at parks and beaches find out that there is no job for them to go back to in September.
Government approval ratings will go through the floor, as people will be screaming from the rooftops they never knew that this was likely and now out of cash, and very difficult to find new employment.
terrifying article of the week:
Britain is sliding into a deflationary death spiral Negative interest rates on Government debt are a harbinger of economic destruction on a vast scale
I disagree. Deflation means we can do QE to boost money supply (and write off government debt).
As I recall from A level Economics in the 1970s, deflation is BAD. Hasn't your solution been tried before...in Zimbabwe?
Yes and no.
Yes deflation is bad, which is why QE is a good idea to prevent deflation. That we resolve our budget deficit with it is the icing on the cake not the only reason to do it.
And no, Zimbabwe never tried QE to avoid deflation. I swear any time you suggest any monetary policy its always "Zimbabwe, Zimbabwe". Zimbabwe is not what the UK with QE looks like.
I thought Mugabe printed Zimbabwean Dollars like a crazed counterfeiter.
Which is not what Quantitative Easing is.
There is a difference between manic printing of currency even when you have high inflation - and some Quantitative Easing during a period of below target inflation.
The Zimbabwean comparison is ridiculous. There is no comparison between the UK, a rich and successful country since the Middle Ages and his regime.
Germany between the wars might be better.
It's worth understanding *why* Germany ended up with hyperinflation. It wasn't because politicians and the Central Bank were ignorant of the risks of printing money. It was because, at every turn, printing money was the path of least resistance.
Politics, absent a truly first class leader, will always follow the path of least resistance.
It's easier to print and spend, and put off any reckoning, until tomorrow.
And nothing bad happened last time.
So every time the boundaries are pushed somewhat. Quantitive Easing worked for the GFC, it worked for CV-19, it'll work for this recession, it'll work to make sure the economy is moving before the election, it'll work because there's nothing else working.
The path of least resistance is moving, inevitably, towards the printing press.
Isn't that exactly what happened with borrowing too?
Borrowing was considered the easy option and it worked so was pushed more and more until Gordon Brown went reckless and unprecedentedly maxed out borrowing at the height of our growth period prior to the crash so that when the crash did come the deficit after the crash was eye watering.
Gordon Brown did not "max out" borrowing. One clue is that it went up when the blue team took over. A lot.
Changing the subject to what is needed now, who can tell? This is not a classic demand-side market failure. There might be one later on. Have people stopped going to pubs because they have no money to buy overpriced beer or because the government imposed prohibition?
Comments
If we suffer a second wave they'll forget about this entirely and switch seamlessly to something else, like, "we wouldn't have had a second wave if we'd developed herd immunity in the first" ignoring the vast number of deaths that would have required.
Politics, absent a truly first class leader, will always follow the path of least resistance.
It's easier to print and spend, and put off any reckoning, until tomorrow.
And nothing bad happened last time.
So every time the boundaries are pushed somewhat. Quantitive Easing worked for the GFC, it worked for CV-19, it'll work for this recession, it'll work to make sure the economy is moving before the election, it'll work because there's nothing else working.
The path of least resistance is moving, inevitably, towards the printing press.
Johnson will jump at opportunity to go AWOL for another 2 weeks. In fact perhaps that's Dom's cunning plan - send Boris abroad every 2 weeks and he can hide for months on end.
One other thing worry remembering: the more you move to domestic supply chains, the less you have globalisation acting as a natural break on inflation.
I would love to have a government I could trust, like in Sweden. In fact, I would love to be more like Sweden in almost every way, it's a great country. I wish we had a pro-European government, a decent welfare state, almost no private schools, a more progressive tax system, excellent public transport, more rights at work so it would be easier to work from home or be protected in the workplace etc etc. If I lived in a country like that I would trust the government when it says it has my best interests at heart.
We spoke to some Swedish friends a couple of weeks ago, incidentally, and they said there was a lot of nervousness in Sweden about their approach. It was generally seen as a gamble. We are all trying to figure out the best way to proceed. But it needs to be guided by science and we should be confident that human lives are being prioritised above the economy (and I say that as an economist).
Their using different donkeys every day to give out the message is confusing , they have no Leader, he is usually AWOL and planning next holiday ( USA this time ). Sturgeon does it herself and gives her clear concise position, she shows she is the Leader and in full command of her brief..
Most tech gear gets better and/or cheaper over time (effective deflation) but we rarely hold off from buying it.
https://twitter.com/Jonathan_MBanks/status/1262964970033229824?s=20
It is simple hygiene practice.
https://arstechnica.com/features/2020/05/the-story-of-cheaper-batteries-from-smartphones-to-teslas/
"In 2010, a lithium-ion battery pack with 1 kWh of capacity—enough to power an electric car for three or four miles—cost more than $1,000. By 2019, the figure had fallen to $156, according to data compiled by BloombergNEF."
Goodbye trains.
I'm not sure that figure for Boris is correct. He certainly attended at least 3 prior to his illness maybe more. However since his illness he has only bothered to turn up twice.
It means lower-risk (young, fit) people expose themselves to greater 'risk' but also more sunshine, fresh air and other things that improve health; and higher risk people (older, fatter, co-morbid) expose themselves to almost no risk of catching the virus or meeting lockdown-shunning fitties.
This is exactly what you want to happen as it builds immunity in the healthy and protects the vulnerable.
The ambiguity appears to have worked in London as its young population (aka 'dickheads' according to PB Lockdownists) have built immunity and got some vitamin D while older, unfit people in areas with more vulnerable demographics have stayed indoors.
Risk segmentation is clearly the way out of this thing. Reconciling safety with social and economic needs.
Maybe London should be opened up first?
Those external payments were the engine that drove the hyperinflation, because the devaluation of the currency through printing didn’t change the real value of the debts.
Of course, the inflation that results from money creation can be quite painful (e.g. see 1970s Britain) but without those external obligation in other currencies (or commodities: e.g Germany was required to make coal & wood deliveries) it’s very difficult to enter that hyperinflationary spiral, where you have to print more and more and more to pay off the same real-value obligation as your currency devalues ever further.
This is survivable if you're a business borrowing to invest at a time of rapid technological development, productivity growth and healthy profit margins.
Makes borrowing to buy a house a bit problematic though.
https://twitter.com/realcandaceo/status/1263836836293738502?s=21
The German debt was, IIRC, less bad proportionally than they had imposed on France in 1870.
The demand for reparations, whilst understandable, was an astonishingly self-destructive policy in the end - it gained the victor economies next to nothing, whilst destroying the German economy via the whirlwind of hyperinflation.
Will it endure?
We shall see.
When Salmond was in charge, it was clear Sturgeon was the successor. With Sturgeon, there is no-one behind her. The cupboard is empty. Her SNP colleagues in Holyrood are talentless, clueless and useless.
I think we agreed to always use the adjusted number.
https://twitter.com/TheLancet/status/1263809104633569281?s=20
https://twitter.com/ryanstruyk/status/1263829555921530880?s=20
I also suspect that most people, seeing their pile of cash shrink in the bank, would spend it on assets.
Now, lets have your top 3 from the ministry of all the talents (sic).
Even if that were true, and "half-competent" is a bit of a stretch, Boris has a reputation for being lazy and dodging scrutiny so he's not going to get the benefit of the doubt.
Internet Rule 41 is getting a big airing this afternoon!
"35% of novel coronavirus infections are asymptomatic and 0.4% of people who show symptoms may die, according to the US CDC’s new "best estimates""
If this is true, I feel somewhat vindicated, as this is where, back in January/February, I predicted IFR would end up, based on the 3-4% IFR of those then being tested with PCR.
This is not to diminish the importance of countermeasures being taken, particularly good hand and respiratory hygiene, and social distancing and face mask-wearing (especially indoors for both).
In other potentially good news, the CDC is now saying that fomites (contaminated objects and surfaces) are not thought to be a major transmission route.
https://twitter.com/BallouxFrancois/status/1263745877702737920
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52773032
If @Dura_Ace 's comment about it's being juche is not to become true, then I'd entirely agree.
My daughter's ex-boyfriend (26 years old, healthy, and fit as a horse) had it. Several weeks later, he's still not back to normal.
"Unlikely to actually die" covers a multitude of sins.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-52682922
I really don't know what they are playing at with it. Either they think it is a heritage asset which is in desperate need of refurbishment, given it already costs huge amounts to maintain, or they should just go ahead and bulldoze the place. And while some do want the latter, it'd be better for them to just have the guts to either let it fall to bits or commit to fixing it already, not just kick the can endlessly.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-52541218
Borrowing was considered the easy option and it worked so was pushed more and more until Gordon Brown went reckless and unprecedentedly maxed out borrowing at the height of our growth period prior to the crash so that when the crash did come the deficit after the crash was eye watering.
SNP have more talent in Westminster, which in itself is pretty telling.
Home secretary Priti Patel to give UK daily briefing at 17:00 BST, outlining new travel restrictions
Changing the subject to what is needed now, who can tell? This is not a classic demand-side market failure. There might be one later on. Have people stopped going to pubs because they have no money to buy overpriced beer or because the government imposed prohibition?