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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Wear and tear. The fate of Dominic Cummings

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited May 2020 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Wear and tear. The fate of Dominic Cummings

Was just watching a cookery show on Channel 4 (it’s not all politics you know) and the presenters made two jokes about Dominic Cummings in the space of five minutes. To those calling this a bubble issue, it never was but it really isn’t now.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • First ... yet again!
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797
    On 4 Do as I say, not as I do isn't an approach that works long term.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,287
    Too much hyperbole..
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556
    Fourth ... like the rate of scandal this is :wink:
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 23,934
    Starsports have cut Boris further to 4/1 to front this afternoon's briefing.

    Dominic Raab 7/2
    Grant Shapps 7/2
    Boris Johnson 4/1
    Robert Jenrick 5/1
    Alok Sharma 11/2
    George Eustice 8/1
    Michael Gove 8/1
    Gavin Williamson 12/1
    Oliver Dowden 12/1
    Amanda Milling 14/1
    Matthew Hancock 16/1
    Priti Patel 16/1
    Rishi Sunak 40/1

  • stjohnstjohn Posts: 1,777

    First ... yet again!

    How does he do it!
  • If nothing else, this shambles led to some very good jokes on UK Twitter, which hasn't enjoyed itself this much since the Cameron/Pig story.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 5,996
    He should have remained. Now he is trying hard to remain.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 23,934

    Starsports have cut Boris further to 4/1 to front this afternoon's briefing.

    Dominic Raab 7/2
    Grant Shapps 7/2
    Boris Johnson 4/1
    Robert Jenrick 5/1
    Alok Sharma 11/2
    George Eustice 8/1
    Michael Gove 8/1
    Gavin Williamson 12/1
    Oliver Dowden 12/1
    Amanda Milling 14/1
    Matthew Hancock 16/1
    Priti Patel 16/1
    Rishi Sunak 40/1

    I can't see it being Jenrick who also faced questions about driving round Britain in search of a bed for the night. Gove might be seen as too close to Cummings. Sunak would be a good choice but his enormous price suggests the odds compilers know him not to be in London.
  • Will Cummings' alleged 30-mile trip from Durham to Barnard Castle prove to be his undoing? ... If true, it seems likely to take a considerable amount of justifiable explaining.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    I suspect that Cummings is currently writing down every single movement he's made in the past two months, in front of Johnson and probably Gove.

    If the 'castle' visit is true, or there's anything similar not yet reported, then he's probably 'being resigned' this afternoon. If it's simply the Durham trip then he'll be okay, as keeping him means an awful lot to the PM.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 24,967
    Very good AM.

    But ...

    ... do we want the government, or government in general **, to claim moral authority ?

    IMO moral authority needs to be earned and I see no evidence that this government, previous governments or government in general has done so.

    ** by government in general I refer to the alphabet soup of governing institutions.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 23,934

    Starsports have cut Boris further to 4/1 to front this afternoon's briefing.

    Dominic Raab 7/2
    Grant Shapps 7/2
    Boris Johnson 4/1
    Robert Jenrick 5/1
    Alok Sharma 11/2
    George Eustice 8/1
    Michael Gove 8/1
    Gavin Williamson 12/1
    Oliver Dowden 12/1
    Amanda Milling 14/1
    Matthew Hancock 16/1
    Priti Patel 16/1
    Rishi Sunak 40/1

    I can't see it being Jenrick who also faced questions about driving round Britain in search of a bed for the night. Gove might be seen as too close to Cummings. Sunak would be a good choice but his enormous price suggests the odds compilers know him not to be in London.
    Boris is now favourite at 7/2; suggested by @AlastairMeeks on the last thread at 10/1.

    Boris Johnson 7/2
    Dominic Raab 4/1
    Grant Shapps 9/2
    Alok Sharma 11/2
    Robert Jenrick 11/2
    Michael Gove 6/1
    George Eustice 10/1
    Gavin Williamson 12/1
    Oliver Dowden 12/1
    Amanda Milling 14/1
    Matthew Hancock 16/1
    Priti Patel 16/1
    Rishi Sunak 40/1
  • Starsports have cut Boris further to 4/1 to front this afternoon's briefing.

    Dominic Raab 7/2
    Grant Shapps 7/2
    Boris Johnson 4/1
    Robert Jenrick 5/1
    Alok Sharma 11/2
    George Eustice 8/1
    Michael Gove 8/1
    Gavin Williamson 12/1
    Oliver Dowden 12/1
    Amanda Milling 14/1
    Matthew Hancock 16/1
    Priti Patel 16/1
    Rishi Sunak 40/1

    I can't see it being Jenrick who also faced questions about driving round Britain in search of a bed for the night. Gove might be seen as too close to Cummings. Sunak would be a good choice but his enormous price suggests the odds compilers know him not to be in London.
    How wise of him!

    Sunak also potentially has enough political capital in the bank to tell Johnson to *** off if he thinks he's accepting that commission.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 5,996

    Starsports have cut Boris further to 4/1 to front this afternoon's briefing.

    Dominic Raab 7/2
    Grant Shapps 7/2
    Boris Johnson 4/1
    Robert Jenrick 5/1
    Alok Sharma 11/2
    George Eustice 8/1
    Michael Gove 8/1
    Gavin Williamson 12/1
    Oliver Dowden 12/1
    Amanda Milling 14/1
    Matthew Hancock 16/1
    Priti Patel 16/1
    Rishi Sunak 40/1

    I can't see it being Jenrick who also faced questions about driving round Britain in search of a bed for the night. Gove might be seen as too close to Cummings. Sunak would be a good choice but his enormous price suggests the odds compilers know him not to be in London.
    Sunak was the minister appointed by Cummings to replace the Chancellor, who vanished from Cabinet with one thousand times less drama than this weekend's bunker-buster exercise.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 23,934
    Meanwhile, Betfair/PP have Cummings 8/13 go, 6/5 stay.
  • Worth keeping an eye on certainly, but so far at least a remarkably short list.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 11,059

    Fourth ... like the rate of scandal this is :wink:

    So fourth rate that you can’t stop posting here about it. Personally I only spend my time on PB for first rate scandals. Therein lies our difference.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,043

    Worth keeping an eye on certainly, but so far at least a remarkably short list.
    But what are the Whips being told privately?




  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,165
    As a result, the tearing up of government guidelines to protect its most senior adviser will in all probability cost lives and cause further damage to the economy.

    I can see one or the other but not both unless you think the lives lost will be due to the damage to the economy, which is likely to happen anyway.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,074

    Starsports have cut Boris further to 4/1 to front this afternoon's briefing.

    Dominic Raab 7/2
    Grant Shapps 7/2
    Boris Johnson 4/1
    Robert Jenrick 5/1
    Alok Sharma 11/2
    George Eustice 8/1
    Michael Gove 8/1
    Gavin Williamson 12/1
    Oliver Dowden 12/1
    Amanda Milling 14/1
    Matthew Hancock 16/1
    Priti Patel 16/1
    Rishi Sunak 40/1

    I can't see it being Jenrick who also faced questions about driving round Britain in search of a bed for the night. Gove might be seen as too close to Cummings. Sunak would be a good choice but his enormous price suggests the odds compilers know him not to be in London.
    How wise of him!

    Sunak also potentially has enough political capital in the bank to tell Johnson to *** off if he thinks he's accepting that commission.
    Sunak made a mistake in tweeting in support of Cummings as he did yesterday. He did not need to and he will need all his political capital in the weeks ahead.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 23,934
    EPG said:

    Starsports have cut Boris further to 4/1 to front this afternoon's briefing.

    Dominic Raab 7/2
    Grant Shapps 7/2
    Boris Johnson 4/1
    Robert Jenrick 5/1
    Alok Sharma 11/2
    George Eustice 8/1
    Michael Gove 8/1
    Gavin Williamson 12/1
    Oliver Dowden 12/1
    Amanda Milling 14/1
    Matthew Hancock 16/1
    Priti Patel 16/1
    Rishi Sunak 40/1

    I can't see it being Jenrick who also faced questions about driving round Britain in search of a bed for the night. Gove might be seen as too close to Cummings. Sunak would be a good choice but his enormous price suggests the odds compilers know him not to be in London.
    Sunak was the minister appointed by Cummings to replace the Chancellor, who vanished from Cabinet with one thousand times less drama than this weekend's bunker-buster exercise.
    Good point. I'd forgotten about that.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    If nothing else, this shambles led to some very good jokes on UK Twitter, which hasn't enjoyed itself this much since the Cameron/Pig story.

    The nothing to see here brigade should make a list of the ways in which this differs from the Cameron/Pig story. This will help them to see why this matters and that didn't.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,074
    Anyway the questions now should be:-

    What did Boris know? And when did he know it?
  • On a purely partisan view, watching the Tories piss through loads of political capital on Dom Cummings foolishness would be enjoyable, but on a "doesn't want to watch the country get fucked" view, it's highly annoying.

    It does show that the way the partisans close ranks regardless of what the issue is or level of guilt when feeling threatened isn't just unique to the Labour partisans, many of whom we saw doggedly dig in for Corbyn over antisemitism. On the grounds that showing weakness would be dangerous for them.

    We're watching the same thing with loads of Tory activists. The brighter ones are aghast because they know the level of damage that can be sustained when you too obviously hold the people in contempt.

    And too many people are unable to see anything other than through the prism of Brexit. The Lib Dems learned to their cost last December that most people aren't, in fact, obsessive about Brexit. Those who are, though, have to see everything in terms of it, which is why you're getting people insisting that no, all this is because of Remainers or Brexit or something other than an unelected arrogant SpAd smashing quarantine for himself and his family while the little people were required to struggle through.

    And it's cut through. I've kept hearing people who've previously been saying "I've been saying the Government are trying to get through a very difficult time; we should give them our support" come out with outright rants about "This Cummings person" and "One rule for us, another for them" and "Surely he's got to go?"

    Personally, I think if he doesn't go today or tomorrow morning by the latest, I want the Tories to keep him on. Let them own it. I've seen Lib Dems convinced that the tuition fees thing will have died down long before the 2015 election, Labourites certain that Corbyn's latest misstep won't be held against them, and I remember Back to Basics with the Tories in the Nineties. All next week's chip papers, right?

    People remember the stench of hypocrisy. They remember the strong narratives. Associate Cummings with this and you've got a great story on any deaths or cockups over handling the pandemic. And if you think that the pandemic will be forgotten soon, you're even more overoptimistic than any of those Lib Dems about tuition fees or Labourites about antisemitism.

    The instinct when tribalists are under pressure is to fall back to the Millwall Defence: "Fuck off, I'm Millwall, what can you do about it?" Great for signalling loyalty to the in-group and making yourself feel better. Not so good when you've got to convince millions outside the in-group that you speak for them and represent them.

    There is rank hypocrisy from some - but not all - PB Tories on this particular issue, you're absolutely right.

    As for the rest of your post, couldn't agree more.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    edited May 2020
    A hit and run post then DavidL?

    It's not 'just' a twitter bubble storm. That's a defence mechanism kicking in as part of your avoidance tactics.

    It's grim. It's crap and Cummings should go. Everyone I know is incensed about it.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 23,934
    IshmaelZ said:

    If nothing else, this shambles led to some very good jokes on UK Twitter, which hasn't enjoyed itself this much since the Cameron/Pig story.

    The nothing to see here brigade should make a list of the ways in which this differs from the Cameron/Pig story. This will help them to see why this matters and that didn't.
    Talking of pigs, this may be the last chance to post this (ht Bf):
    https://mobile.twitter.com/AndyT09697678/status/1264508605333745665/photo/1
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614

    Worth keeping an eye on certainly, but so far at least a remarkably short list.
    Still in the single figures, and all backbenchers. Not yet big enough that the PM will be taking notice.

    I wonder if anyone in government is prepared to call for it openly, meaning they'd have to resign if Cummings wasn't fired?
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    From an anti-tory POV I hope Cummings stays. He's toxic and running through the Conservative Government like rampant tertiary cancer.

    But if you want Boris to become a great PM then you should be hoping Cummings will be fired, for good.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 5,996
    DavidL said:

    For god's sake. (Decloaks)

    1. If my wife caught this I would consider myself absolutely nailed on to get it. We do not maintain social distancing, not even in lockdown. Sometimes we get very close indeed. Spreading in families is, unsurprisingly, the most common method of transmission. Of course he considered, correctly, that there was a high probability that he would get it too.

    2. Pure speculation. Are you seriously saying that the guidance should not have provided for exceptional steps being taken by a parent charged with looking after a child? I mean, really?

    3. Just maybe Boris had other things to worry about. Like being ill, having a child, running the country, trying to give some sort of direction to a fairly aimless Cabinet, that sort of thing.

    4. Cummings has not provided any of the guidance or moralising to the public. He will not do so in the future either. And, subject to a possible second wave, most of this is going to be relaxation measures anyway. It's not great but this is being massively oversold.

    Don't get me wrong. I really don't like the one rule for them and one for us aspect of this. I don't much care for the arrogance. If he has lied or had others lie on his behalf he should probably go. But this is a twitter storm at its maddest right now.
    Boris has to weigh up his utility in delivering the program he wants to deliver notwithstanding the virus against the embarrassment. He should do so coolly.

    I shall now return to not commenting on this.

    Did the government provide advice saying:
    Nobody can travel to a second home, except if you or your wife actually catches coronavirus, in which case you can travel to your second home.
    Because I don't remember that level of detail, especially the part authorising Londoners to bring corona up the motorway
  • Would be funny if the Police get him for speeding
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,812
    FPT:

    Has been sheer delight reading the comments this morning.

    Cummings is the effective PM, so *if* he goes, it will be a significant hit to the government.

    No independent observer thinks Boris has the focus or stamina to actually lead the country. He will be mortally wounded by a Cummings ouster, hence the desperation to keep him so far.

    The real news of course is that Cummings-Vallance, either with Boris’s conscious or unconscious approval - ignored the mounting evidence from abroad and dissent from others on NERVTAG or SAGE to prevent an early lockdown.

    Until public opinion forced them to U-turn, by which time, sadly, tens of thousands of deaths were unavoidable.

    The government accidentally let many, mostly elderly, people suffocate to death.

    Boris and the government know this of course which is why they come across as so deflated and twitchy.

    Meanwhile, Brexit policy remains unchanged. The government assumes we won’t notice the sclerotic recovery from COVID caused by the retreat of investment from export industries.

    Of the three great trading blocs with whom one looks to do business, China is looking politically less viable, we are committed to mutual destruction in our relations with the EU, and Trump/US will be looking at us like meat on a platter.

    The global institutions that a services-focused entity with free trade aspirations needs to underpin global trade flows also look to be in permanent decline.

    Interesting to read Baker this morning confess that he and the hardliners were hoodwinked into accepting a trade border between Northern Ireland and Great Britain.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688

    Too much hyperbole..

    Alastair? Hyperbole, waffle and 1000 words when 10 would do? Never!
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 3,911
    Just a thought.

    What if we accept Dom has broken the rules repeatedly and egregiously.

    It's worth asking why. From what we know, Dom appears to have been in favour of a herd immunity strategy - he is also alleged to be either a psychopath or a sociopath depending on who you talk to (lots of top people in business are).

    What if privately Dom has been in favour of the herd immunity strategy all along because he believes that some deaths are a price worth paying either to achieve herd immunity or because he has seen figures that demonstrate the trade off between deaths from covid 19 vs keeping the economy ticking over mean the lockdown sums don't add up.

    Add these two possibilities together and what you probably have is a man who doesn't give two hoots about the lockdown and thinks it's actively harmful, but who went along with it because it wasn't politically viable to achieve herd immunity.

    Now let's imagine Dom is fired and starts giving interviews all week about how stupid the government's lockdown strategy is, how weak Boris is when faced with bad headlines, and how devastating the government policy will be on all our lives.

    He will certainly be getting more airtime than Lord Sumption.

    If this is indeed the case, I imagine Boris will realise it is better to have a man like that inside the tent pissing out than outside the tent pissing in.

    I think Teflon Dom will survive this. But if he does get fired, it could be a very interesting week.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 11,059

    From an anti-tory POV I hope Cummings stays. He's toxic and running through the Conservative Government like rampant tertiary cancer.

    But if you want Boris to become a great PM then you should be hoping Cummings will be fired, for good.

    100%. Have been saying that since Friday night. The fact he is in Government means that it cannot survive without an unelected rule breaker. That will be the line for the next four years.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 12,881
    My mother's incisive political commentary via Whatsapp: "Cummings has terrible trousers and carries his lunch in an Asda bag."

    I think that means he has to go.
  • Cyclefree said:

    Starsports have cut Boris further to 4/1 to front this afternoon's briefing.

    Dominic Raab 7/2
    Grant Shapps 7/2
    Boris Johnson 4/1
    Robert Jenrick 5/1
    Alok Sharma 11/2
    George Eustice 8/1
    Michael Gove 8/1
    Gavin Williamson 12/1
    Oliver Dowden 12/1
    Amanda Milling 14/1
    Matthew Hancock 16/1
    Priti Patel 16/1
    Rishi Sunak 40/1

    I can't see it being Jenrick who also faced questions about driving round Britain in search of a bed for the night. Gove might be seen as too close to Cummings. Sunak would be a good choice but his enormous price suggests the odds compilers know him not to be in London.
    How wise of him!

    Sunak also potentially has enough political capital in the bank to tell Johnson to *** off if he thinks he's accepting that commission.
    Sunak made a mistake in tweeting in support of Cummings as he did yesterday. He did not need to and he will need all his political capital in the weeks ahead.
    Sunak will survive that - he tweeted what everyone was asked to tweet. If Cummings is forced out, he can always say "new information came to light... Dominic hadn't been straight with us and I feel terribly let down, as do we all".

    Johnson's position is more difficult in that there is certainly a risk that Cummings HAS told him the full story. That's the impression the defence is giving (i.e. if Johnson didn;t know, they just should've said "Dominic made a dreadful mistake but the PM has given him a dressing down and forgiven him". It's incredibly dangerous if Johnson knew.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    edited May 2020
    DavidL said:

    For god's sake. (Decloaks)

    1. If my wife caught this I would consider myself absolutely nailed on to get it. We do not maintain social distancing, not even in lockdown. Sometimes we get very close indeed. Spreading in families is, unsurprisingly, the most common method of transmission. Of course he considered, correctly, that there was a high probability that he would get it too.

    2. Pure speculation. Are you seriously saying that the guidance should not have provided for exceptional steps being taken by a parent charged with looking after a child? I mean, really?

    3. Just maybe Boris had other things to worry about. Like being ill, having a child, running the country, trying to give some sort of direction to a fairly aimless Cabinet, that sort of thing.

    4. Cummings has not provided any of the guidance or moralising to the public. He will not do so in the future either. And, subject to a possible second wave, most of this is going to be relaxation measures anyway. It's not great but this is being massively oversold.

    Don't get me wrong. I really don't like the one rule for them and one for us aspect of this. I don't much care for the arrogance. If he has lied or had others lie on his behalf he should probably go. But this is a twitter storm at its maddest right now.
    Boris has to weigh up his utility in delivering the program he wants to deliver notwithstanding the virus against the embarrassment. He should do so coolly.

    I shall now return to not commenting on this.

    I don't do twitter and am therefore immune (ha!) to the effects of twitterstorms.

    The killer is the people out there saying "My parent died alone because I obeyed the rules. You did not." Very hard to argue your way round that one.

    ETA since I wrote that, the headline on WATO has just included a clip of a woman saying "What was the point of the sacrifice? What was the point of the miserable lonely death my father died?"
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 23,934
    Cyclefree said:

    Anyway the questions now should be:-

    What did Boris know? And when did he know it?

    Tbh I am not convinced Boris knew anything, and expect aides will have made sure it stayed that way in order to protect him.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,674
    DavidL said:

    For god's sake. (Decloaks)

    1. If my wife caught this I would consider myself absolutely nailed on to get it. We do not maintain social distancing, not even in lockdown. Sometimes we get very close indeed. Spreading in families is, unsurprisingly, the most common method of transmission. Of course he considered, correctly, that there was a high probability that he would get it too.

    2. Pure speculation. Are you seriously saying that the guidance should not have provided for exceptional steps being taken by a parent charged with looking after a child? I mean, really?

    3. Just maybe Boris had other things to worry about. Like being ill, having a child, running the country, trying to give some sort of direction to a fairly aimless Cabinet, that sort of thing.

    4. Cummings has not provided any of the guidance or moralising to the public. He will not do so in the future either. And, subject to a possible second wave, most of this is going to be relaxation measures anyway. It's not great but this is being massively oversold.

    Don't get me wrong. I really don't like the one rule for them and one for us aspect of this. I don't much care for the arrogance. If he has lied or had others lie on his behalf he should probably go. But this is a twitter storm at its maddest right now.
    Boris has to weigh up his utility in delivering the program he wants to deliver notwithstanding the virus against the embarrassment. He should do so coolly.

    I shall now return to not commenting on this.

    Very poor David, there is absolutely no justification whatsoever for Cummings. It was just a blatant breaking of the rules due to feeling himself above them.
    It highlights perfectly how Tories view the public, they think they are just sheep to be ordered about whilst they are the elite who can do what they want , not a good look.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603
    Cyclefree said:

    Starsports have cut Boris further to 4/1 to front this afternoon's briefing.

    Dominic Raab 7/2
    Grant Shapps 7/2
    Boris Johnson 4/1
    Robert Jenrick 5/1
    Alok Sharma 11/2
    George Eustice 8/1
    Michael Gove 8/1
    Gavin Williamson 12/1
    Oliver Dowden 12/1
    Amanda Milling 14/1
    Matthew Hancock 16/1
    Priti Patel 16/1
    Rishi Sunak 40/1

    I can't see it being Jenrick who also faced questions about driving round Britain in search of a bed for the night. Gove might be seen as too close to Cummings. Sunak would be a good choice but his enormous price suggests the odds compilers know him not to be in London.
    How wise of him!

    Sunak also potentially has enough political capital in the bank to tell Johnson to *** off if he thinks he's accepting that commission.
    Sunak made a mistake in tweeting in support of Cummings as he did yesterday. He did not need to and he will need all his political capital in the weeks ahead.
    Don't forget that Sunak is a Cummings placeman as well, he has a joint SPAD team with No. 10 so big Dom is his boss as well.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 5,996
    kyf_100 said:

    What if privately Dom has been in favour of the herd immunity strategy all along because he believes that some deaths are a price worth paying either to achieve herd immunity or because he has seen figures that demonstrate the trade off between deaths from covid 19 vs keeping the economy ticking over mean the lockdown sums don't add up.

    Or because there are genetic origins of vulnerability, and Cummings has shown himself partial to eugenicists. I wish this were facetious, but the evidence is lying around.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,969

    Too much hyperbole..

    Alastair? Hyperbole, waffle and 1000 words when 10 would do? Never!
    That’s as nearly as an embarrassing comment from you as when you said Alastair was like a mix Eyore and Private Fraser when Alastair warned about the danger of Covid-19 back in February.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,674

    From an anti-tory POV I hope Cummings stays. He's toxic and running through the Conservative Government like rampant tertiary cancer.

    But if you want Boris to become a great PM then you should be hoping Cummings will be fired, for good.

    Regardless Boris will be a major DUD. A lazy lying toerag as has been proven , not fit to run a bath.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,454
    Are they going to try an apology! That will be sincere.....
  • Boris Johnson, the worst PM in British history.
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797

    FPT:

    Interesting to read Baker this morning confess that he and the hardliners were hoodwinked into accepting a trade border between Northern Ireland and Great Britain.

    Nope, it was obvious what the issue was going to be - they were just either not bright enough to realise or hoping it wouldn't be an issue.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 11,059
    Did anyone else just hear that vox pop on WATO?
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556
    edited May 2020
    DougSeal said:

    Fourth ... like the rate of scandal this is :wink:

    So fourth rate that you can’t stop posting here about it. Personally I only spend my time on PB for first rate scandals. Therein lies our difference.
    Aren't you still supposed to be pretending that you want Cummings to stay? You should be on my side if that were really the case.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 23,934

    Starsports have cut Boris further to 4/1 to front this afternoon's briefing.

    Dominic Raab 7/2
    Grant Shapps 7/2
    Boris Johnson 4/1
    Robert Jenrick 5/1
    Alok Sharma 11/2
    George Eustice 8/1
    Michael Gove 8/1
    Gavin Williamson 12/1
    Oliver Dowden 12/1
    Amanda Milling 14/1
    Matthew Hancock 16/1
    Priti Patel 16/1
    Rishi Sunak 40/1

    I can't see it being Jenrick who also faced questions about driving round Britain in search of a bed for the night. Gove might be seen as too close to Cummings. Sunak would be a good choice but his enormous price suggests the odds compilers know him not to be in London.
    Market suspended.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    DougSeal said:

    Did anyone else just hear that vox pop on WATO?

    Yes, me downthread in an edit:

    ETA since I wrote that, the headline on WATO has just included a clip of a woman saying "What was the point of the sacrifice? What was the point of the miserable lonely death my father died?"

    Devastating.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688

    Boris Johnson, the worst PM in British history.

    He succeeded in delivering Brexit, for good or ill, and just won a thumping 80-seat majority after 9 years of Conservative government.

    I'm all for kicking the tories but not when it's rather misplaced.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,136
    OT nice well-sourced round-up of where and how the rona spreads:
    https://www.sltrib.com/news/2020/05/23/your-guide-how/
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556

    Boris Johnson, the worst PM in British history.

    I know it's a novelty for the Labour Party to be led by someone with an IQ above room temperature, but you really shouldn't get carried away...
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 11,059
    IshmaelZ said:

    DougSeal said:

    Did anyone else just hear that vox pop on WATO?

    Yes, me downthread in an edit:

    ETA since I wrote that, the headline on WATO has just included a clip of a woman saying "What was the point of the sacrifice? What was the point of the miserable lonely death my father died?"

    Devastating.
    Sorry, didn’t see that
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 11,059

    DougSeal said:

    Fourth ... like the rate of scandal this is :wink:

    So fourth rate that you can’t stop posting here about it. Personally I only spend my time on PB for first rate scandals. Therein lies our difference.
    Aren't you still supposed to be pretending that you want Cummings to stay? You should be on my side if that were really the case.
    Oh I am on this issue! Just not on any other issue and not for the reasons you are.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,760

    Starsports have cut Boris further to 4/1 to front this afternoon's briefing.

    Dominic Raab 7/2
    Grant Shapps 7/2
    Boris Johnson 4/1
    Robert Jenrick 5/1
    Alok Sharma 11/2
    George Eustice 8/1
    Michael Gove 8/1
    Gavin Williamson 12/1
    Oliver Dowden 12/1
    Amanda Milling 14/1
    Matthew Hancock 16/1
    Priti Patel 16/1
    Rishi Sunak 40/1

    I can't see it being Jenrick who also faced questions about driving round Britain in search of a bed for the night. Gove might be seen as too close to Cummings. Sunak would be a good choice but his enormous price suggests the odds compilers know him not to be in London.
    Market suspended.
    It’s been decided this is a hanging offence?
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,287

    Boris Johnson, the worst PM in British history.

    Are you trying to be funny or are you on some form of illegal substance?
  • kyf_100 said:

    Just a thought.

    What if we accept Dom has broken the rules repeatedly and egregiously.

    It's worth asking why. From what we know, Dom appears to have been in favour of a herd immunity strategy - he is also alleged to be either a psychopath or a sociopath depending on who you talk to (lots of top people in business are).

    What if privately Dom has been in favour of the herd immunity strategy all along because he believes that some deaths are a price worth paying either to achieve herd immunity or because he has seen figures that demonstrate the trade off between deaths from covid 19 vs keeping the economy ticking over mean the lockdown sums don't add up.

    Add these two possibilities together and what you probably have is a man who doesn't give two hoots about the lockdown and thinks it's actively harmful, but who went along with it because it wasn't politically viable to achieve herd immunity.

    Now let's imagine Dom is fired and starts giving interviews all week about how stupid the government's lockdown strategy is, how weak Boris is when faced with bad headlines, and how devastating the government policy will be on all our lives.

    He will certainly be getting more airtime than Lord Sumption.

    If this is indeed the case, I imagine Boris will realise it is better to have a man like that inside the tent pissing out than outside the tent pissing in.

    I think Teflon Dom will survive this. But if he does get fired, it could be a very interesting week.

    Steve Bannon did that to some extent when let go by Trump. But Trump reasoned - correctly - that a dirty looking, charmless sidekick wasn't that much of a danger.

    There's also a large extent to which it harms your future job prospects if you publicly stab your ex-employer repeatedly in the back the second you're out of there. Makes people think twice.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,043
    Developing the vaccine at Oxford may struggle because the virus is disappearing across UK.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/05/23/oxford-university-covid-19-vaccine-trial-has-50-per-cent-chance/
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 11,059

    Are they going to try an apology! That will be sincere.....
    I have been thinking that they might. But I am not sure Cummings has the vocabulary and it will have to be taught.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    DougSeal said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    DougSeal said:

    Did anyone else just hear that vox pop on WATO?

    Yes, me downthread in an edit:

    ETA since I wrote that, the headline on WATO has just included a clip of a woman saying "What was the point of the sacrifice? What was the point of the miserable lonely death my father died?"

    Devastating.
    Sorry, didn’t see that
    Don't apologise! just thought you might have missed it cos it was an edit.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,812

    Boris Johnson, the worst PM in British history.

    He succeeded in delivering Brexit, for good or ill, and just won a thumping 80-seat majority after 9 years of Conservative government.

    I'm all for kicking the tories but not when it's rather misplaced.
    It is likely that in future times, “delivering Brexit” will be seen in the same light as “delivering Suez”.

    And the 80-seat majority will be of interest only to psephologists.

    It is of course too early to place Boris in the PM rankings.

    What does seem clear is that he is the most callow PM of the modern age. You have to go back before living memory I assume to find someone with his general lack of fitness for office.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,454
    edited May 2020
    DougSeal said:

    Are they going to try an apology! That will be sincere.....
    I have been thinking that they might. But I am not sure Cummings has the vocabulary and it will have to be taught.
    First draft:

    Look, Im really sorry I got caught, now will you lot bugger off, whoever you are, Ive got far more important things to do and missing my weekly trip to the NE for this.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,674

    Boris Johnson, the worst PM in British history.

    Are you trying to be funny or are you on some form of illegal substance?
    If you think he is wrong it is you that is on the illegal substance
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    edited May 2020
    TSE we shall have to agree to disagree about the qualities of Alastair's writing. He tends to be, as was said by someone else, full of hyperbole, bitterly anti-Brexit and anything at all the Conservatives do as well as full of verbiage and waffle. With a good editor and a more balanced approach it would be half-decent. But it is what it is and it's not confined to AM. Generally I think the threads would benefit hugely from an editor cutting them by 1/3rd. Mike's an exception: they're always concise and sharp.

    On the subject of the virus, if you did care to look back you will see that I repeatedly warned about the dangers of this potential pandemic. Indeed I was ahead of my doppelgänger Eadric.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,749

    Fourth ... like the rate of scandal this is :wink:

    When it's people with fourth rate morals involved, that's usually the deal.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,674
    ydoethur said:

    Starsports have cut Boris further to 4/1 to front this afternoon's briefing.

    Dominic Raab 7/2
    Grant Shapps 7/2
    Boris Johnson 4/1
    Robert Jenrick 5/1
    Alok Sharma 11/2
    George Eustice 8/1
    Michael Gove 8/1
    Gavin Williamson 12/1
    Oliver Dowden 12/1
    Amanda Milling 14/1
    Matthew Hancock 16/1
    Priti Patel 16/1
    Rishi Sunak 40/1

    I can't see it being Jenrick who also faced questions about driving round Britain in search of a bed for the night. Gove might be seen as too close to Cummings. Sunak would be a good choice but his enormous price suggests the odds compilers know him not to be in London.
    Market suspended.
    It’s been decided this is a hanging offence?
    Hopefully Drawing and quartering will be included
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 24,967
    IshmaelZ said:

    DougSeal said:

    Did anyone else just hear that vox pop on WATO?

    Yes, me downthread in an edit:

    ETA since I wrote that, the headline on WATO has just included a clip of a woman saying "What was the point of the sacrifice? What was the point of the miserable lonely death my father died?"

    Devastating.
    The point was it reduced the risks she, and other people she was in close contact with, faced.

    Which is why the key part of the Cummings story is not the travelling about but the travelling about while infected.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,969

    TSE we shall have to agree to disagree about the qualities of Alastair's writing. He tends to be, as was said by someone else, full of hyperbole, bitterly anti-Brexit and anything at all the Conservatives do as well as full of verbiage and waffle. With a good editor and a more balanced approach it would be half-decent. But it is what it is and it's not confined to AM. Generally the threads would benefit hugely from an editor cutting them by 1/3rd. Mike's an exception: they're always concise and sharp.

    On the subject of the virus, if you did care to look back you will see that I repeatedly warned about the dangers of this potential pandemic. Indeed I was ahead of my doppelgänger Eadric.

    But you weren’t ahead of Alastair.

    So your views are irrelevant because you’re wrong.

    Now back to being a good Muslim for the day.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    I've not been following the site today. Am I reading right now that the story is that Cummings has made multiple trips?

    If so he should go.

    I was willing yesterday to give the benefit of the doubt if it was for the welfare of a three year old. As a father of a three year old myself their safety must always come first.

    However multiple trips without reasonable reasons is simply inexcusable if true.

    I hope that's clear enough.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688

    Boris Johnson, the worst PM in British history.

    He succeeded in delivering Brexit, for good or ill, and just won a thumping 80-seat majority after 9 years of Conservative government.

    I'm all for kicking the tories but not when it's rather misplaced.
    It is likely that in future times, “delivering Brexit” will be seen in the same light as “delivering Suez”.

    And the 80-seat majority will be of interest only to psephologists.

    It is of course too early to place Boris in the PM rankings.

    What does seem clear is that he is the most callow PM of the modern age. You have to go back before living memory I assume to find someone with his general lack of fitness for office.
    Yes, I think you're right on all of that.

  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556
    Scott_xP said:
    A 'campaign van'?! Whoever paid for that must _really_ care about the health risks of non-essential travel :lol:
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 11,059

    Developing the vaccine at Oxford may struggle because the virus is disappearing across UK.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/05/23/oxford-university-covid-19-vaccine-trial-has-50-per-cent-chance/

    I saw that and thought “why does the testing have to be in the UK?”. That being said I don’t subscribe to the Telegraph and the question might be answered further in.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,043
    DougSeal said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    DougSeal said:

    Did anyone else just hear that vox pop on WATO?

    Yes, me downthread in an edit:

    ETA since I wrote that, the headline on WATO has just included a clip of a woman saying "What was the point of the sacrifice? What was the point of the miserable lonely death my father died?"

    Devastating.
    Sorry, didn’t see that
    Tory MPs are going to have inboxes overflowing with this kind of stuff.

  • TSE we shall have to agree to disagree about the qualities of Alastair's writing. He tends to be, as was said by someone else, full of hyperbole, bitterly anti-Brexit and anything at all the Conservatives do as well as full of verbiage and waffle. With a good editor and a more balanced approach it would be half-decent. But it is what it is and it's not confined to AM. Generally I think the threads would benefit hugely from an editor cutting them by 1/3rd. Mike's an exception: they're always concise and sharp.

    On the subject of the virus, if you did care to look back you will see that I repeatedly warned about the dangers of this potential pandemic. Indeed I was ahead of my doppelgänger Eadric.

    I'm sure we all look forward to seeing your pithy, balanced and insightful article published here tomorrow. Don't let us distract you from writing it.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,760
    malcolmg said:

    Boris Johnson, the worst PM in British history.

    Are you trying to be funny or are you on some form of illegal substance?
    If you think he is wrong it is you that is on the illegal substance
    Hmmmm.

    I’m still giving it to Lord Goderich.

    Or the Earl of Bath, if we include those who had to involuntarily refuse the commission.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688

    TSE we shall have to agree to disagree about the qualities of Alastair's writing. He tends to be, as was said by someone else, full of hyperbole, bitterly anti-Brexit and anything at all the Conservatives do as well as full of verbiage and waffle. With a good editor and a more balanced approach it would be half-decent. But it is what it is and it's not confined to AM. Generally the threads would benefit hugely from an editor cutting them by 1/3rd. Mike's an exception: they're always concise and sharp.

    On the subject of the virus, if you did care to look back you will see that I repeatedly warned about the dangers of this potential pandemic. Indeed I was ahead of my doppelgänger Eadric.

    But you weren’t ahead of Alastair.

    So your views are irrelevant because you’re wrong.

    Actually I was ahead of Alastair, as Foxy kindly demonstrated recently by posting up some warning messages I posted about the virus well before AM. My lambasting of Alastair's doomsday thread was an abberration for which I apologised.

    Sorry that the facts spoil your idea.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,725

    I've not been following the site today. Am I reading right now that the story is that Cummings has made multiple trips?

    If so he should go.

    I was willing yesterday to give the benefit of the doubt if it was for the welfare of a three year old. As a father of a three year old myself their safety must always come first.

    However multiple trips without reasonable reasons is simply inexcusable if true.

    I hope that's clear enough.

    I dont think we are sure about multiple trips TBH.

    A 2nd to Durham is being denied,

    It does appear an Easter Sunday trip to Barnard Castle when we were told to stay at home for Easter happened though
  • TomsToms Posts: 2,478
    Mr Meeks. Your splendid irony could power a toaster.
    Have you ever considered writing for TV (I would also add films, under "normal" circumstances) court-based series?
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,674

    Scott_xP said:
    A 'campaign van'?! Whoever paid for that must _really_ care about the health risks of non-essential travel :lol:
    He did not travel 250 miles with Cov-id, so very minor and as it is essential to show the toerag the real rules it is an essential trip. Just a pity arsehole is in Downing Street getting sacked.
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797
    edited May 2020
    A summary of the week so far - it's worth reading the entire thread.

    https://twitter.com/RussInCheshire/status/1264503367319117830
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 3,911

    kyf_100 said:

    Just a thought.

    What if we accept Dom has broken the rules repeatedly and egregiously.

    It's worth asking why. From what we know, Dom appears to have been in favour of a herd immunity strategy - he is also alleged to be either a psychopath or a sociopath depending on who you talk to (lots of top people in business are).

    What if privately Dom has been in favour of the herd immunity strategy all along because he believes that some deaths are a price worth paying either to achieve herd immunity or because he has seen figures that demonstrate the trade off between deaths from covid 19 vs keeping the economy ticking over mean the lockdown sums don't add up.

    Add these two possibilities together and what you probably have is a man who doesn't give two hoots about the lockdown and thinks it's actively harmful, but who went along with it because it wasn't politically viable to achieve herd immunity.

    Now let's imagine Dom is fired and starts giving interviews all week about how stupid the government's lockdown strategy is, how weak Boris is when faced with bad headlines, and how devastating the government policy will be on all our lives.

    He will certainly be getting more airtime than Lord Sumption.

    If this is indeed the case, I imagine Boris will realise it is better to have a man like that inside the tent pissing out than outside the tent pissing in.

    I think Teflon Dom will survive this. But if he does get fired, it could be a very interesting week.

    Steve Bannon did that to some extent when let go by Trump. But Trump reasoned - correctly - that a dirty looking, charmless sidekick wasn't that much of a danger.

    There's also a large extent to which it harms your future job prospects if you publicly stab your ex-employer repeatedly in the back the second you're out of there. Makes people think twice.
    Except if Dom does get fired and goes on record this week as a lockdown sceptic, he will be the go-to voice for the media on the issue of the day that is likely to dominate for months, even after lockdown is over.

    When the job losses start coming in. When the pound is plunging. When we see figures of excess deaths from other causes start to spike because people are too scared to go to hospital.

    Some of us will be there to say I told you so. But Dom will be there to say "I told Boris and he ignored me".

    As I said in a previous thread a quarter of the people I work with got handed their notice last week and lockdown is about as popular as a fart in a lift with all of them right now.

    I can only assume Dom has behaved as he has, including saying "I don't care" yesterday, because he's a massive lockdown sceptic at heart. He will be an extremely popular and presicent man in six months time if he goes on record as saying that now.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,749
    DavidL said:

    For god's sake. (Decloaks)

    1. If my wife caught this I would consider myself absolutely nailed on to get it. We do not maintain social distancing, not even in lockdown. Sometimes we get very close indeed. Spreading in families is, unsurprisingly, the most common method of transmission. Of course he considered, correctly, that there was a high probability that he would get it too.

    2. Pure speculation. Are you seriously saying that the guidance should not have provided for exceptional steps being taken by a parent charged with looking after a child? I mean, really?

    3. Just maybe Boris had other things to worry about. Like being ill, having a child, running the country, trying to give some sort of direction to a fairly aimless Cabinet, that sort of thing.

    4. Cummings has not provided any of the guidance or moralising to the public. He will not do so in the future either. And, subject to a possible second wave, most of this is going to be relaxation measures anyway. It's not great but this is being massively oversold.

    Don't get me wrong. I really don't like the one rule for them and one for us aspect of this. I don't much care for the arrogance. If he has lied or had others lie on his behalf he should probably go. But this is a twitter storm at its maddest right now.
    Boris has to weigh up his utility in delivering the program he wants to deliver notwithstanding the virus against the embarrassment. He should do so coolly.

    I shall now return to not commenting on this.

    Good to see that you're avoiding the complete omerta of your fellow Scottish Tories, if only by a smidgeon. Silence is golden, what a shower.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,043

    I've not been following the site today. Am I reading right now that the story is that Cummings has made multiple trips?

    If so he should go.

    I was willing yesterday to give the benefit of the doubt if it was for the welfare of a three year old. As a father of a three year old myself their safety must always come first.

    However multiple trips without reasonable reasons is simply inexcusable if true.

    I hope that's clear enough.

    Yes, and eminently fair of you to say that you own line in the sand has been crossed.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    By the way, I don't in fact think the Doomsday scenario has proven correct. The pandemic has been bad but we have somewhat overreacted at times. The 'Stay Home' message was a consequence of our disastrous initial weeks when we let the virus run unfettered through positively encouraging crowds to gather: including your beloved Liverpool FC, TSE.

    The actual mortality rate of the virus is relatively low at around 1.4% the vast majority of whom are in over 60's who have underlying health conditions. That's not to minimise the risks, nor the horror of witnessing a loved one die from it, but there's a lot to be said for finding a middle ground - as many SE Asian countries have successfully proven.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614

    Developing the vaccine at Oxford may struggle because the virus is disappearing across UK.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/05/23/oxford-university-covid-19-vaccine-trial-has-50-per-cent-chance/

    So hands up who wants to volunteer to be deliberately exposed to the virus, for the good of humanity?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,043

    DougSeal said:

    Are they going to try an apology! That will be sincere.....
    I have been thinking that they might. But I am not sure Cummings has the vocabulary and it will have to be taught.
    First draft:

    Look, Im really sorry I got caught, now will you lot bugger off, whoever you are, Ive got far more important things to do and missing my weekly trip to the NE for this.
    way, way too late for an apology. Might have worked on Friday, but then the additional trips would have come out.

  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,739

    Good to see that you're avoiding the complete omerta of your fellow Scottish Tories, if only by a smidgeon. Silence is golden, what a shower.

    I urged one of them to make a comment. He instantly blocked me :)
This discussion has been closed.