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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Will Labour lead in a nationwide YouGov poll in 2020?

SystemSystem Posts: 11,006
edited May 2020 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Will Labour lead in a nationwide YouGov poll in 2020?

This market by Ladbrokes on Labour leading in a UK wide Westminster voting intention poll is an intriguing one, the most recent YouGov poll had the Conservatives 15% ahead, during the first phase of the pandemic that lead peaked at 24%, prior to the pandemic that lead was around the early 20s, so it is fair to say the Conservatives lead with YouGov has been consistently high.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • Options
    Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    Probably :lol:
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    Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 13,288
    You are kind of betting on whether Cummings stays. If he does, a Labour lead at some point would seem inevitable.

    Not so sure otherwise, especially if Boris were to move quickly and decisively against Pinnochio.
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Probably.

    Red Ed managed it. For all the good it did him.
  • Options
    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,287
    third.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,349
    Ave_it said:

    Probably :lol:

    https://twitter.com/p_surridge/status/1264993832040570881

    Probably not.
  • Options
    IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Probably:lol:
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Peter_the_Punter said:

    You are kind of betting on whether Cummings stays. If he does, a Labour lead at some point would seem inevitable.

    Not so sure otherwise, especially if Boris were to move quickly and decisively against Pinnochio.

    I'm not sure why Boris showing weakness and giving Starmer a scalp prevents Starmer from getting a lead?

    Red Ed had managed multiple poll leads after the same time leading the party as Starmer has had. With another 7 months to go it'd be truly remarkable for Labour not getting a lead at some point.
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    isamisam Posts: 40,896
    4/5 seems ridiculously short, I think I shall repeat the old line that it is unlikely to be a value bet if the bookmaker isn't offering the other side.

    That said, the Cummings story has undoubtedly cut through if my parents and in laws are bringing it up. They know I am a political nerd, but, even so, I think it's wrong to say it's just a bubble story. Whether people are bothered by it when lockdown is over and we are all back to work is another matter.

  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,938
    The last party leaders to lead their party into Government, Blair and Cameron, all saw poll leads for their party within a month of winning the leadership.

    Starmer so far has not, which suggests the key swing voters at the next general election, Tory Remainers, still have reservations about him. If they do switch it is more likely to be to the LDs in my view than Labour, so while Labour might close the gap or even get neck and neck with the Tories they are unlikely to take a big poll lead
  • Options
    SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 6,248
    Market appears to have gone on Ladbrokes website!

    I thought 4/5 was quite a good price, for what it's worth.
  • Options
    StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    HYUFD said:

    StuartDickson said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    Scottish Labour will make a comeback.

    With Richard Leonard in charge?

    He’s 20/1 to be FM next year.
    A neutered Sturgeon remaining FM with a Unionist majority is fine by me
    You want a majority, but you don’t want to govern? Why do you even bother?

    Tories are just wreckers. They have nothing constructive to contribute.
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,849
    https://twitter.com/BBCHelena/status/1265379047325999109
  • Options
    MattWMattW Posts: 18,388
    edited May 2020
    ..
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    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 24,237
    SirNorfolkPassmore said:

    Market appears to have gone on Ladbrokes website!

    I thought 4/5 was quite a good price, for what it's worth.

    I'm surprised the market was opened so late, given there'd be no-one in the office (or WFH) to actively manage a market when clearly punters could have inside information on upcoming polls.
  • Options
    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 24,237
    Scott_xP said:

    https://twitter.com/BBCHelena/status/1265379047325999109

    A headline for older readers.
  • Options
    SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 6,248
    edited May 2020
    HYUFD said:

    The last party leaders to lead their party into Government, Blair and Cameron, all saw poll leads for their party within a month of winning the leadership.

    Starmer so far has not, which suggests the key swing voters at the next general election, Tory Remainers, still have reservations about him. If they do switch it is more likely to be to the LDs in my view than Labour, so while Labour might close the gap or even get neck and neck with the Tories they are unlikely to take a big poll lead

    I think that's an odd test to set. Labour had leads (pretty big leads) immediately before Blair became leader, and it would have been startling if he hadn't had leads. When Cameron came in, the Tories were behind Labour a shade, but only a shade and he only boosted them a little to take a slight lead.

    Further, Starmer came in in (overused phrase) unprecedented times with rallying round in a national emergency and Johnson having a huge Coronavirus boost (at that time, of course).

    The jury is out, clearly. But Starmer personally has had very good ratings (again the caveat being unusual times) and has made progress.

    If I were a Labour supporter, I'd be cautiously optimistic and not judge him by your, fairly eccentric, yardstick.
  • Options
    TGOHF666TGOHF666 Posts: 2,052
    https://twitter.com/iromg/status/1265379727075876867?s=21
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    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,247
    Scott_xP said:

    https://twitter.com/BBCHelena/status/1265379047325999109

    I really want Cummings out but hounding him at his home is unacceptable and must be condemned. It is not clever and will scare his family and neighbours
  • Options
    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 24,237
    Good news on PPE

    The government has signed deals with more than 100 new suppliers from around the world as well as ramping up domestic production to help meet demand for PPE.
    https://www.gov.uk/government/news/government-significantly-boosts-uk-ppe-supply-with-more-than-100-new-deals
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    FPT
    Peter_the_Punter said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Peter_the_Punter said:

    MaxPB said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    MaxPB said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    MaxPB said:

    Just looking through the by specimen date testing data and I think England is definitely through the worst of it. Under 1000 new cases per day in England and dropping rapidly down to just 500 per day.

    The by death date hospital deaths report has a very similar story, I think we're actually under 100 hospital deaths per day in England and under 150 total deaths per day. Interestingly there hasn't been a rise in community transmission after the VE Day celebrations that everyone was so worried about. In fact new cases and deaths have continued to fall fairly rapidly since then. I also think that the lockdown since then has been extremely loose and we've not seen a rise in new cases.

    It's a real shame that the government is getting distracted by this Cummings bullshit because there is finally some really positive news on the virus and I think as a nation our sacrifices have begun to pay off and we can start getting back to normal. Social distancing indoors and do what you like outdoors seems to result in an R of around 0.8-0.9 which means it will take 5-6 more weeks to get the new cases down to a negligible amount but it means we can open up beer gardens, cafés and other outdoor venues.

    Shamefully we're now going to spend the next week on whether or not one arsehole gets the sack or not instead of finally moving on from lockdown.

    The media may be losing their minds, but we are moving on. Both my children are returning to education next week [nursery has been in touch now to confirm they're reopening]. Shops are reopening soon. The media may not know what matters, but I think people do.

    The media wants blood but people are looking to the future not the past. Next week expect more announcements on lifting the lockdown and only an idiot will still be talking about Cummings by the end of next week IMHO. Already the sting has gone.
    No, it's not the fucking media you cretin. This isn't a whipped up media storm. The people want him gone.
    The people don't care. Ask a prompted leading question in a poll, get a leading answer.

    If you ask people unprompted their top issues I doubt they'll mention Cummings - and once this media circus moves on they won't either.
    No, the people do care. Maybe in your little bubble they don't, but in mine people are absolutely seething. Everyone wants him gone. Your dancing on the head of a pin about guidelines, rules, reasonableness is complete bullshit to everyone with more than half a brain cell. Every person in this country was asked to make serious sacrifices to their lifestyle, most of us did so because we were told the NHS would collapse if we didn't. Now the PM's chief advisor chose not to make the same sacrifices the rest of us were asked to make, his actions are an insult to every single person who has stuck to the rules, every single person who had missed a funeral, every single couple who have delayed weddings, every single person who hasn't seen their parents or grandparents for weeks, every single person who has lost a loved one because people like him couldn't "stay home, protect the NHS and save lives". He has shamed our party and Boris has done the same by sticking by him. I was a member for over 8 years, I campaigned for Boris, I campaigned for Dave, I campaigned for Leave and I campaigned for Boris again.

    We cannot have anyone in the party who believes the rules are for the little people. It isn't acceptable. Your responses about his actions being reasonable and not breaking any laws are completely and utterly laughable and frankly make me glad to no longer be a member of a party that you and HYFUD are still a part of.
    I've been struck by the number of non-political types who have mentioned it spontaneously. For example, I just came back in from the garden and chatting with my Australian neighbours who casually referred to DC as '...a lying bastard', only they didn't put it quite so delicately.

    Yes, I think the issue has cut-through.
    Indeed but how much has it cut through in a way that matters?

    Or has it cut through in that its this week's thing people speak about but by next week they've moved on? Today its Dominic Cummings people are talking about, tomorrow it could be Caitlyn Jenner for all we know..
    We'll see.

    Btw, I was shocked to learn you are too young to remember Jeremy Thorpe. I thought you were an old dinosaur like me. Such reactionary views at your age, Philip.....dear dear!
    Not just too young to remember, Thorpe was before I was born!

    I don't think I'm reactionary, though I do feel have very strong opinions: right wing economically, and very liberal socially. I'm more strident than reactionary - and my defence of Cummings isn't because of anything reactionary but a sense of fairness.
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,849
    https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/1265380599298248704
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    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,247
    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    Scott_xP said:

    https://twitter.com/BBCHelena/status/1265379047325999109

    A headline for older readers.
    It was fantastic, especially the blood donor
  • Options
    SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 6,248
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    Scott_xP said:

    https://twitter.com/BBCHelena/status/1265379047325999109

    A headline for older readers.
    It was fantastic, especially the blood donor
    Nearly an armful!

    They quite often have HHH on Radio 4 Extra still.
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    TGOHF666TGOHF666 Posts: 2,052
    Nice

    https://twitter.com/swp_britain/status/1265360686839980033?s=21
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    DougSealDougSeal Posts: 11,111
    HYUFD said:

    The last party leaders to lead their party into Government, Blair and Cameron, all saw poll leads for their party within a month of winning the leadership.

    Starmer so far has not, which suggests the key swing voters at the next general election, Tory Remainers, still have reservations about him. If they do switch it is more likely to be to the LDs in my view than Labour, so while Labour might close the gap or even get neck and neck with the Tories they are unlikely to take a big poll lead

    That’s really a weird take. Blair inherited his poll leads from John Smith IIRC. David Cameron well, I guess that’s true, but It’s hardly establishing a conclusive precedent.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,961
    Scott_xP said:

    https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/1265380599298248704

    The PM is going to be marginalised?
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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    Good news on PPE

    The government has signed deals with more than 100 new suppliers from around the world as well as ramping up domestic production to help meet demand for PPE.
    https://www.gov.uk/government/news/government-significantly-boosts-uk-ppe-supply-with-more-than-100-new-deals

    Real news. Good news.
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    IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Boris is strong on VI and best PM, weak on handling covid and general satisfaction. The latter 2 between them encompass the whole of best PM, so I think we can ignore best PM on the often-stated grounds that people find it easier to rate the PMship of someone who is PM than someone who isn't. It is an article of faith here that satisfaction scores are better indicators than VI.

    Second point - someone suggested on PT that Boris still has the rural Tory vote sewn up. That might be wrong. Caricature rural Tories- who do actually exist in large numbers - see the Tories as the party of low tax - specifically low and evadable IHT - and hunting. Hunting is dead as a doornail after May said she would have it back and Boris expressly said he wouldn't - and so is low taxation for the next few decades while we sort the present fiasco out. So it is not clear that Boris brings enough to the rural party any longer, and if he counts on them he may wake up and find himself looking like labour in Scotland.
  • Options
    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 24,237
    SirNorfolkPassmore said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    Scott_xP said:

    https://twitter.com/BBCHelena/status/1265379047325999109

    A headline for older readers.
    It was fantastic, especially the blood donor
    Nearly an armful!

    They quite often have HHH on Radio 4 Extra still.
    "It was either that or join the Young Conservatives."

    https://www.dailymotion.com/video/x5hjsjq
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    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,578
    TGOHF666 said:

    https://twitter.com/iromg/status/1265379727075876867?s=21

    Shouldn't they change their name to the Socialist Furloughed Party?
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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    StuartDickson said:

    HYUFD said:

    StuartDickson said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    Scottish Labour will make a comeback.

    With Richard Leonard in charge?

    He’s 20/1 to be FM next year.
    A neutered Sturgeon remaining FM with a Unionist majority is fine by me
    You want a majority, but you don’t want to govern? Why do you even bother?

    Tories are just wreckers. They have nothing constructive to contribute.
    He's a Conservative. I think a SCON majority in Holyrood is frankly a bit unlikely.
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,584
    IshmaelZ said:

    Boris is strong on VI and best PM, weak on handling covid and general satisfaction. The latter 2 between them encompass the whole of best PM, so I think we can ignore best PM on the often-stated grounds that people find it easier to rate the PMship of someone who is PM than someone who isn't. It is an article of faith here that satisfaction scores are better indicators than VI.

    Second point - someone suggested on PT that Boris still has the rural Tory vote sewn up. That might be wrong. Caricature rural Tories- who do actually exist in large numbers - see the Tories as the party of low tax - specifically low and evadable IHT - and hunting. Hunting is dead as a doornail after May said she would have it back and Boris expressly said he wouldn't - and so is low taxation for the next few decades while we sort the present fiasco out. So it is not clear that Boris brings enough to the rural party any longer, and if he counts on them he may wake up and find himself looking like labour in Scotland.

    Hmm. Who would the backwoodspersons vote for, then?
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,849
    https://twitter.com/steverichards14/status/1265381578861142019
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    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,152
    edited May 2020
    Today I attended my second funeral in 5 days. Hope not to have a week like this ever again.

    Have we uncovered the real reason for Dom’s dash to Barnard Castle which yesterday’s utter crock of horseshit explanation was intended to cover up?

    If open air is low risk, why can’t open cafes, pubs and restaurants with outdoor tables etc open on 1June?

    What’s the rationale for keeping such venues closed while opening indoor shops?
  • Options
    IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Carnyx said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Boris is strong on VI and best PM, weak on handling covid and general satisfaction. The latter 2 between them encompass the whole of best PM, so I think we can ignore best PM on the often-stated grounds that people find it easier to rate the PMship of someone who is PM than someone who isn't. It is an article of faith here that satisfaction scores are better indicators than VI.

    Second point - someone suggested on PT that Boris still has the rural Tory vote sewn up. That might be wrong. Caricature rural Tories- who do actually exist in large numbers - see the Tories as the party of low tax - specifically low and evadable IHT - and hunting. Hunting is dead as a doornail after May said she would have it back and Boris expressly said he wouldn't - and so is low taxation for the next few decades while we sort the present fiasco out. So it is not clear that Boris brings enough to the rural party any longer, and if he counts on them he may wake up and find himself looking like labour in Scotland.

    Hmm. Who would the backwoodspersons vote for, then?
    Well - some credible lib dems would clean up, if there are any. SKS is streets ahead of Boris on likeability, integrity and competence but I suspect that when we see some actual policies from him they would be too much for the turnip mafia to swallow.
  • Options
    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 24,237
    Cyclefree said:

    Today I attended my second funeral in 5 days. Hope not to have a week like this ever again.

    Have we uncovered the real reason for Dom’s dash to Barnard Castle which yesterday’s utter crock of horseshit explanation was intended to cover up?

    If open air is low risk, why can’t open cafes, pubs and restaurants with outdoor tables etc open on 1June?

    What’s the rationale for keeping such venues closed while opening indoor shops?

    Barnard Castle: probably because it was his wife's birthday.

    Though a possibly related question is why was Dominic Cummings' appearance delayed for half an hour after the Durham Police statement was released? Was Downing Street worried what might be in it? Was Cummings' statement hastily rewritten?
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Cyclefree said:

    Today I attended my second funeral in 5 days. Hope not to have a week like this ever again.

    Have we uncovered the real reason for Dom’s dash to Barnard Castle which yesterday’s utter crock of horseshit explanation was intended to cover up?

    If open air is low risk, why can’t open cafes, pubs and restaurants with outdoor tables etc open on 1June?

    What’s the rationale for keeping such venues closed while opening indoor shops?

    Sorry for your losses.
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,849
    https://twitter.com/BBCHelena/status/1265383957677383683
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    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,849
    https://twitter.com/BBCHelena/status/1265384406203719680
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    blairfblairf Posts: 98
    Cyclefree said:

    Today I attended my second funeral in 5 days. Hope not to have a week like this ever again.

    Have we uncovered the real reason for Dom’s dash to Barnard Castle which yesterday’s utter crock of horseshit explanation was intended to cover up?

    If open air is low risk, why can’t open cafes, pubs and restaurants with outdoor tables etc open on 1June?

    What’s the rationale for keeping such venues closed while opening indoor shops?

    his wife's birthday, and a chance for calm before returning to the intensity of westminster.
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,584
    IshmaelZ said:

    Carnyx said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Boris is strong on VI and best PM, weak on handling covid and general satisfaction. The latter 2 between them encompass the whole of best PM, so I think we can ignore best PM on the often-stated grounds that people find it easier to rate the PMship of someone who is PM than someone who isn't. It is an article of faith here that satisfaction scores are better indicators than VI.

    Second point - someone suggested on PT that Boris still has the rural Tory vote sewn up. That might be wrong. Caricature rural Tories- who do actually exist in large numbers - see the Tories as the party of low tax - specifically low and evadable IHT - and hunting. Hunting is dead as a doornail after May said she would have it back and Boris expressly said he wouldn't - and so is low taxation for the next few decades while we sort the present fiasco out. So it is not clear that Boris brings enough to the rural party any longer, and if he counts on them he may wake up and find himself looking like labour in Scotland.

    Hmm. Who would the backwoodspersons vote for, then?
    Well - some credible lib dems would clean up, if there are any. SKS is streets ahead of Boris on likeability, integrity and competence but I suspect that when we see some actual policies from him they would be too much for the turnip mafia to swallow.
    Thanks, that makes sense. I don't think the SNP or PC would gain many votes even if they turn out to be less socialist than Newest Labour. SNP anyway don't approve of cruelty to foxes.
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    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 24,237
    Scott_xP said:

    https://twitter.com/steverichards14/status/1265381578861142019

    What's new? Anyone who watched Benedict Cumberbatch's portrayal, or read the books or watched DC's videos must have known what Cummings thinks of politicians. Why the pearl-clutching now?

    Any MPs without a telly can watch it online now at
    https://www.channel4.com/programmes/brexit-the-uncivil-war
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,849
    https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1265385249678209024
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    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,578
    Scott_xP said:

    https://twitter.com/BBCHelena/status/1265383957677383683

    They've lost the Telegraph. Cumstain is toast.
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    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,849
    https://twitter.com/bronwenmaddox/status/1265374960668868609
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    franklynfranklyn Posts: 297
    STAY ALERT; CONTROL THE VIRUS; SAVE LIVES anagrams to ‬

    ‪EASILY SURVIVES TRAVEL NORTH TO CASTLE‬

    Apparently.............................
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    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,849
    https://twitter.com/JournoStephen/status/1265385899908632577
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,938
    SandyRentool said:

    Scott_xP said:

    https://twitter.com/BBCHelena/status/1265383957677383683

    They've lost the Telegraph. Cumstain is toast.
    So goes the Telegraph, Tory Pravda, so goes the party.

    RIP Dominic Cummings' political career
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,319
    SirNorfolkPassmore said:



    The jury is out, clearly. But Starmer personally has had very good ratings (again the caveat being unusual times) and has made progress.

    If I were a Labour supporter, I'd be cautiously optimistic and not judge him by your, fairly eccentric, yardstick.

    Yes, that's how I feel. I don't think Starmer has had any serious scrutiny, positive or otherwise, so far - people quite like what little they've seen of him, but he's yet to make a major speech or launch a major policy, probably correctly assuming it'll get sidelined by whatever is happerning that day with the virus. He's got a big test to come with the anti-semitism report, but after that I think he has a fair shot at occupying the centyre ground which Johnson appears to have mislaid.
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    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,849
    https://twitter.com/euanmccolm/status/1265386563577544706
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    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,849
    https://twitter.com/BBCHelena/status/1265386795480559621
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    CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    https://twitter.com/feedthedrummer/status/1265386139269070848

    Damning for the Government. Labour is coming back and this is Johnson's Black Wednesday
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,849
    https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1265386866494394381
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    Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 13,288
    Carnyx said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Boris is strong on VI and best PM, weak on handling covid and general satisfaction. The latter 2 between them encompass the whole of best PM, so I think we can ignore best PM on the often-stated grounds that people find it easier to rate the PMship of someone who is PM than someone who isn't. It is an article of faith here that satisfaction scores are better indicators than VI.

    Second point - someone suggested on PT that Boris still has the rural Tory vote sewn up. That might be wrong. Caricature rural Tories- who do actually exist in large numbers - see the Tories as the party of low tax - specifically low and evadable IHT - and hunting. Hunting is dead as a doornail after May said she would have it back and Boris expressly said he wouldn't - and so is low taxation for the next few decades while we sort the present fiasco out. So it is not clear that Boris brings enough to the rural party any longer, and if he counts on them he may wake up and find himself looking like labour in Scotland.

    Hmm. Who would the backwoodspersons vote for, then?
    NOTA.
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    CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    A 3 point gap on best PM means that yes, Labour will lead opinion polls this year
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    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,287
    edited May 2020
    Mirror running with story about Tory MP's wife having an illegal birthday party in Wales.

    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/police-break-up-illegal-lockdown-22091335

    The MP wasn't present.
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    IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Carnyx said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Carnyx said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Boris is strong on VI and best PM, weak on handling covid and general satisfaction. The latter 2 between them encompass the whole of best PM, so I think we can ignore best PM on the often-stated grounds that people find it easier to rate the PMship of someone who is PM than someone who isn't. It is an article of faith here that satisfaction scores are better indicators than VI.

    Second point - someone suggested on PT that Boris still has the rural Tory vote sewn up. That might be wrong. Caricature rural Tories- who do actually exist in large numbers - see the Tories as the party of low tax - specifically low and evadable IHT - and hunting. Hunting is dead as a doornail after May said she would have it back and Boris expressly said he wouldn't - and so is low taxation for the next few decades while we sort the present fiasco out. So it is not clear that Boris brings enough to the rural party any longer, and if he counts on them he may wake up and find himself looking like labour in Scotland.

    Hmm. Who would the backwoodspersons vote for, then?
    Well - some credible lib dems would clean up, if there are any. SKS is streets ahead of Boris on likeability, integrity and competence but I suspect that when we see some actual policies from him they would be too much for the turnip mafia to swallow.
    Thanks, that makes sense. I don't think the SNP or PC would gain many votes even if they turn out to be less socialist than Newest Labour. SNP anyway don't approve of cruelty to foxes.
    To clarify, I meant "So it is not clear that Boris brings enough to the rural party any longer, and if he counts on them he may wake up and find himself looking IN RURAL ENGLAND like labour in Scotland." I don't see SNP or PC hoovering up much of this vote.
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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    HYUFD said:

    SandyRentool said:

    Scott_xP said:

    https://twitter.com/BBCHelena/status/1265383957677383683

    They've lost the Telegraph. Cumstain is toast.
    So goes the Telegraph, Tory Pravda, so goes the party.

    RIP Dominic Cummings' political career
    I hope and expect you're as wrong as you normally are.
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    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,849
    https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1265387381559099392
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    Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 13,288
    Philip_Thompson said:

    FPT

    Peter_the_Punter said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Peter_the_Punter said:

    MaxPB said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    MaxPB said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    MaxPB said:

    Just looking through the by specimen date testing data and I think England is definitely through the worst of it. Under 1000 new cases per day in England and dropping rapidly down to just 500 per day.

    The by death date hospital deaths report has a very similar story, I think we're actually under 100 hospital deaths per day in England and under 150 total deaths per day. Interestingly there hasn't been a rise in community transmission after the VE Day celebrations that everyone was so worried about. In fact new cases and deaths have continued to fall fairly rapidly since then. I also think that the lockdown since then has been extremely loose and we've not seen a rise in new cases.

    It's a real shame that the government is getting distracted by this Cummings bullshit because there is finally some really positive news on the virus and I think as a nation our sacrifices have begun to pay off and we can start getting back to normal. Social distancing indoors and do what you like outdoors seems to result in an R of around 0.8-0.9 which means it will take 5-6 more weeks to get the new cases down to a negligible amount but it means we can open up beer gardens, cafés and other outdoor venues.

    Shamefully we're now going to spend the next week on whether or not one arsehole gets the sack or not instead of finally moving on from lockdown.

    The media may be losing their minds, but we are moving on. Both my children are returning to education next week [nursery has been in touch now to confirm they're reopening]. Shops are reopening soon. The media may not know what matters, but I think people do.

    The media wants blood but people are looking to the future not the past. Next week expect more announcements on lifting the lockdown and only an idiot will still be talking about Cummings by the end of next week IMHO. Already the sting has gone.
    No, it's not the fucking media you cretin. This isn't a whipped up media storm. The people want him gone.
    The people don't care. Ask a prompted leading question in a poll, get a leading answer.

    If you ask people unprompted their top issues I doubt they'll mention Cummings - and once this media circus moves on they won't either.
    No, the people do care. Maybe in your little bubble they don't, but in mine people are absolutely seething. Everyone wants him gone. Your dancing on the head of a pin about guidelines, rules, reasonableness is complete bullshit to everyone with more than half a brain cell. Every person in this country was asked to make serious sacrifices to their lifestyle, most of us did so because we were told the NHS would collapse if we didn't. Now the PM's chief advisor chose not to make the same sacrifices the rest of us were asked to make, his actions are an insult to every single person who has stuck to the rules, every single person who had missed a funeral, every single couple who have delayed weddings, every single person who hasn't seen their parents or grandparents for weeks, every single person who has lost a loved one because people like him couldn't "stay home, protect the NHS and save lives". He has shamed our party and Boris has done the same by sticking by him. I was a member for over 8 years, I campaigned for Boris, I campaigned for Dave, I campaigned for Leave and I campaigned for Boris again.

    We cannot have anyone in the party who believes the rules are for the little people. It isn't acceptable. Your responses about his actions being reasonable and not breaking any laws are completely and utterly laughable and frankly make me glad to no longer be a member of a party that you and HYFUD are still a part of.
    I've been struck by the number of non-political types who have mentioned it spontaneously. For example, I just came back in from the garden and chatting with my Australian neighbours who casually referred to DC as '...a lying bastard', only they didn't put it quite so delicately.

    Yes, I think the issue has cut-through.
    Indeed but how much has it cut through in a way that matters?

    Or has it cut through in that its this week's thing people speak about but by next week they've moved on? Today its Dominic Cummings people are talking about, tomorrow it could be Caitlyn Jenner for all we know..
    We'll see.

    Btw, I was shocked to learn you are too young to remember Jeremy Thorpe. I thought you were an old dinosaur like me. Such reactionary views at your age, Philip.....dear dear!
    Not just too young to remember, Thorpe was before I was born!

    I don't think I'm reactionary, though I do feel have very strong opinions: right wing economically, and very liberal socially. I'm more strident than reactionary - and my defence of Cummings isn't because of anything reactionary but a sense of fairness.
    Sorry, Philip, just teasing...as I suspect you knew.
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    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 24,237
    Philip_Thompson said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    Good news on PPE

    The government has signed deals with more than 100 new suppliers from around the world as well as ramping up domestic production to help meet demand for PPE.
    https://www.gov.uk/government/news/government-significantly-boosts-uk-ppe-supply-with-more-than-100-new-deals

    Real news. Good news.
    Good news is inevitable when the government takes PB's advice, in this case to appoint a PPE tsar.
    https://www7.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2020/04/12/the-government-needs-to-sort-out-the-ppe-issues-or-it-will-be-seen-as-wilfully-incompetent-or-worse/
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    CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    Just a bubble story this one guys, best give up and go home, didn't even get off PB
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,514
    Cyclefree said:



    Have we uncovered the real reason for Dom’s dash to Barnard Castle which yesterday’s utter crock of horseshit explanation was intended to cover up?

    It was his wife's birthday.
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    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,849
    Peter_the_Punter said:

    NOTA.

    https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1265387909454192640
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,011
    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    https://twitter.com/feedthedrummer/status/1265386139269070848

    Damning for the Government. Labour is coming back and this is Johnson's Black Wednesday

    image
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,606
    That polling from the Mail is absolutely dire. Even Tory voters want him gone. A few more days and Boris will be in trouble with Tory voters as well.
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Foxy said:

    Cyclefree said:



    Have we uncovered the real reason for Dom’s dash to Barnard Castle which yesterday’s utter crock of horseshit explanation was intended to cover up?

    It was his wife's birthday.
    As that well-known political junkie Paddy McGuinness notes.
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    CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    https://twitter.com/JLPartnersPolls/status/1265387873991364608

    So no, it's not a bubble story
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    algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 10,495
    Scott_xP said:

    https://twitter.com/euanmccolm/status/1265386563577544706

    A question about how impressed were you that DC managed not to laugh when telling the Barnard Castle story might have balanced the figures a bit in his favour.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,961
    .
    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    https://twitter.com/JLPartnersPolls/status/1265387873991364608

    So no, it's not a bubble story

    1.87%? ;)
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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    dr_spyn said:

    Mirror running with story about Tory MP's wife having an illegal birthday party in Wales.

    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/police-break-up-illegal-lockdown-22091335

    The MP wasn't present.

    Anyone who thinks if Cummings goes this will draw a line in the sand is a naive fool.

    There'd be blood in the water and the sharks will keep looking for anyone who's done the slightest transgression to be snitched on and ousted.
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    CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    https://twitter.com/JLPartnersPolls/status/1265387879041245192

    Keir is up against the Jeremy Corbyn of the Tory Party
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,152
    Scott_xP said:

    https://twitter.com/BBCHelena/status/1265386795480559621

    When a government becomes a laughing stock, they are done.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,938
    IshmaelZ said:

    Boris is strong on VI and best PM, weak on handling covid and general satisfaction. The latter 2 between them encompass the whole of best PM, so I think we can ignore best PM on the often-stated grounds that people find it easier to rate the PMship of someone who is PM than someone who isn't. It is an article of faith here that satisfaction scores are better indicators than VI.

    Second point - someone suggested on PT that Boris still has the rural Tory vote sewn up. That might be wrong. Caricature rural Tories- who do actually exist in large numbers - see the Tories as the party of low tax - specifically low and evadable IHT - and hunting. Hunting is dead as a doornail after May said she would have it back and Boris expressly said he wouldn't - and so is low taxation for the next few decades while we sort the present fiasco out. So it is not clear that Boris brings enough to the rural party any longer, and if he counts on them he may wake up and find himself looking like labour in Scotland.

    The Tories never have lost the rural vote, even in 1997 or 2001 and will always keep taxes lower than Labour and be more likely to bring back hunting than the LDs.

    The only parties that have beaten the Tories in rural areas overall are UKIP and the Brexit Party when May did not deliver Brexit
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,961
    AlastairMeeks said:


    But can he host?
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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    https://twitter.com/JLPartnersPolls/status/1265387879041245192

    Keir is up against the Jeremy Corbyn of the Tory Party

    The Jeremy Corbyn who won an 80 seat majority? That Jeremy Corbyn? 🤣
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    BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    No chance they lose the Telegraph. Most of the writers have been fairly supportive. Cummings has come through the other side of the eye of the storm and think he will survive now. As for the polls, this will cost them a few points but people are very out of touch if they think millions of leave voters will flock to the party that tried to stop Brexit. And they definitely won't do so because of a story about some government advisor. Huge majorities are built on former stuff than that.

    Labour will only make big inroads after we leave the EU and thus I'd want 2/1 rather than 4/5. In fact they may need a resurgent Brexit Party to make it happen because views are still very much divided down leave and remain lines.
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    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,849
    https://twitter.com/TimesPictures/status/1265388587454992387
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    algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 10,495
    Foxy said:

    Cyclefree said:



    Have we uncovered the real reason for Dom’s dash to Barnard Castle which yesterday’s utter crock of horseshit explanation was intended to cover up?

    It was his wife's birthday.
    He needed to get to a river because his trousers were on fire?
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,285
    How to destroy your reputation.

    https://twitter.com/jlpartnerspolls/status/1265387882635722761?s=21
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    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,849
    https://twitter.com/hzeffman/status/1265388831378939905
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,514
    Scott_xP said:

    https://twitter.com/BBCHelena/status/1265384406203719680

    Pull the other one.

    There is no way it can be enforced now.

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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,201
    SandyRentool said:

    TGOHF666 said:

    https://twitter.com/iromg/status/1265379727075876867?s=21

    Shouldn't they change their name to the Socialist Furloughed Party?
    Socialist Distancing Party
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    CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    44/38 YG? What a swing
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    CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    https://twitter.com/chriscurtis94/status/1265389132198658049

    Labour is coming back
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,152
    Philip_Thompson said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    https://twitter.com/JLPartnersPolls/status/1265387879041245192

    Keir is up against the Jeremy Corbyn of the Tory Party

    The Jeremy Corbyn who won an 80 seat majority? That Jeremy Corbyn? 🤣
    They've gone. Those seats are lost.

    People are bloody seething now. Wait until they've endure 10 or even 15% unemployment for a couple of years.
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    CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    6 point gap, is extraordinary, they will be level in a few weeks
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    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,247
    dr_spyn said:

    Mirror running with story about Tory MP's wife having an illegal birthday party in Wales.

    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/police-break-up-illegal-lockdown-22091335

    The MP wasn't present.

    That is a silly story and the mp wasnot even there
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,938
    StuartDickson said:

    HYUFD said:

    StuartDickson said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    Scottish Labour will make a comeback.

    With Richard Leonard in charge?

    He’s 20/1 to be FM next year.
    A neutered Sturgeon remaining FM with a Unionist majority is fine by me
    You want a majority, but you don’t want to govern? Why do you even bother?

    Tories are just wreckers. They have nothing constructive to contribute.
    We want a majority in the UK, in Scotland we just want to keep the Union
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Scott_xP said:

    https://twitter.com/euanmccolm/status/1265386563577544706

    Those responses show just how clearly the public believe they’re being spun bullshit.
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    IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Scott_xP said:

    https://twitter.com/TimesPictures/status/1265388587454992387

    Those horses will get laminitis if their grazing isn't restricted pdq
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    SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 6,248
    Brom said:

    No chance they lose the Telegraph. Most of the writers have been fairly supportive.

    I agree with the conclusion, but it's sweet that you believe it matters a damn what the writers think!
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    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,849
    Footage of what happened during the 30min delay before the presser has emerged...

    https://twitter.com/TheThickOfItQs/status/1264952192940871685
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    BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    44/38 YG? What a swing

    This is a huge wake up call for those who think this story would massively change opinions if true. A 6 point lead after all that and polling better than on election day. The Tory vote is rock solid above 40% and Cummings story hasn't changed that.
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    CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    https://twitter.com/chriscurtis94/status/1265389652967596033

    Absolutely insane
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,514
    Philip_Thompson said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Mirror running with story about Tory MP's wife having an illegal birthday party in Wales.

    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/police-break-up-illegal-lockdown-22091335

    The MP wasn't present.

    Anyone who thinks if Cummings goes this will draw a line in the sand is a naive fool.

    There'd be blood in the water and the sharks will keep looking for anyone who's done the slightest transgression to be snitched on and ousted.
    Absolutely. All the spineless ministers know they have burnt their boats.

    In the words of John Hancock "We must hang together, or surely we will hang seperately"

    Though Ms Patel seems unusually quiet...

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    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 24,237
    Philip_Thompson said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Mirror running with story about Tory MP's wife having an illegal birthday party in Wales.

    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/police-break-up-illegal-lockdown-22091335

    The MP wasn't present.

    Anyone who thinks if Cummings goes this will draw a line in the sand is a naive fool.

    There'd be blood in the water and the sharks will keep looking for anyone who's done the slightest transgression to be snitched on and ousted.
    Evidence? Did Professor Ferguson's resignation lead to a feeding frenzy? The point about Cummings is not that he broke the rules but that he broke the rules he himself set and that caused considerable hardship to the public.

    He's then rubbed salt in the wound with explanations that are incredible and almost bizarre rather than simply apologise for a lapse in judgement.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,285
    https://twitter.com/tseofpb/status/1265389790800863239?s=21
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    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,247
    edited May 2020
    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    https://twitter.com/feedthedrummer/status/1265386139269070848

    Damning for the Government. Labour is coming back and this is Johnson's Black Wednesday

    It speaks to the common sense of people and Cummings has to go and the 1922 can start inviting letters as far as I am concerned
This discussion has been closed.