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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Boris looks as though he’s survived the Cummings lockdown road
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Boris looks as though he’s survived the Cummings lockdown road trip – but at what price?
The above is one of the videos now on YouTube with the words of the Proclaimers 500 Miles song adapted for Mr Cummings and his drive to Durham during the lockdown. This events of the past week have dominated the headlines and become a big talking point.
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Robert Jenrick is 20/1 with Starsports (first announced) and Paddy Power (dead-heat). Jenrick is the Housing Secretary who broke the guidelines to drive to his second third home, and who this week had his decision on a housing development overturned. Coincidentally, Jenrick's decision would have saved a Party donor £40 million. The news got lost in the row over eye tests up north but that is two decisions that in normal times might have provoked an exchange of letters. We are not living in normal times so do not lose the rent money!
From The Independent (other newspapers are available):
Robert Jenrick approved the Westferry Printworks development in east London on 14 January, a day before new rules would have increased the owners’ costs by up to £50m.
The site belongs to Northern & Shell, the company owned by former Daily Express proprietor Richard Desmond, and which donated £10,000 to the Conservative Party in September 2017.
Tower Hamlets council has now overturned Mr Jenrick’s decision to approve an expanded version of the scheme that included 1,500 homes, which went against the advice of planning inspectors. The council launched the challenge in March on the basis that Mr Jenrick’s decision appeared to have been “influenced by a desire to help the developer to avoid a financial liability”.
The government has now accepted that Mr Jenrick acted unlawfully, the council said in a statement released on Friday. Whitehall backed down to avoid having to release documents that may have shed light on how the housing secretary reached his decision, the authority said.
It said: “Following an agreement between all parties –- the secretary of state, the developer, the Greater London Authority and Tower Hamlets council -– the courts have agreed to a consent order quashing the decision.”
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/robert-jenrick-bias-tower-hamlets-westferry-printworks-richard-desmond-northern-shell-a9534941.html
Where did you get your odds for the next Welsh Assembly elections?
Graham urges senior judges to step aside so Trump, GOP can replace them
https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/499957-graham-urges-senior-judges-to-step-aside-ahead-of-november-election
... "This is an historic opportunity. We’ve put over 200 federal judges on the bench. I think 1 in 5 federal judges are Trump appointees. ... So if you’re a circuit judge in your mid-60s, late 60s, you can take senior status; now would be a good time to do that if you want to make sure the judiciary is right of center. This is a good time to do it," Graham added.
He also encouraged judges who want to make sure a successor can be confirmed by the November election to announce their plans to retire sooner rather than later, adding that he would "need some time" to get them through the committee....
(And yes, it’s pretty low behaviour.)
Incompetence is possible, but so big of a error this far into the pandemic seems unlikely. Political pressure to massage the numbers ? But who would believe that would turn out well for them ?
https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1263605696844623873
But yes, Republicans recognise that their policies are unpopular - they've already seen how gerrymandering and voter suppresssion can't keep their majority in the House. Even the gerrymandered Senate is at risk (although it's hard to see the conservatives losing their undemocratic majority there any time soon). The presidency is obviously up for grabs, despite the Republicans' unfair advantage in the electoral college. Trying to ensure extreme conservative majorities in the judiciary (who are increasingly unrepresentative of the American population) for decades to come is their last line of defence.
https://twitter.com/weehalfpintt/status/1266177368730763269?s=20
(Apologies also if this belittles the disgusting behaviour of the Minnieapolis police which doesn't seem yo have had much discussion here. The reaction in the US seems to indicate that the racial divide is as stark as ever)
To illustrate the differences, here are the prices from Betfair Sportsbook (so presumably Paddy Power as well), Ladbrokes and Starsports respectively. Other bookmakers are available. Ministers are sorted by shortest price available. Note also the books do not even agree if Amanda Milling (Minister without portfolio) is in the Cabinet, and two of them misspell George Eustice. Both these are encouraging signs for punters as they indicate a lack of research by odds compilers. All of which said, I'm not playing.
Priti Patel 3/1, 3/1, 6/1
George Eustice 10/1, 12/1, 5/1
Gavin Williamson 12/1, 12/1, 7/1
Therese Coffey 20/1, 20/1, 7/1
Boris Johnson 8/1, 8/1, 10/1
Liz Truss 20/1, 16/1, 8/1
Robert Buckland 12/1, 20/1, 10/1
Matt Hancock 14/1, 12/1, 10/1
Ben Wallace 12/1, 12/1, 33/1
Simon Hart 18/1, 16/1, 12/1
Michael Gove 16/1, 25/1, 12/1
Grant Shapps 16/1, 16/1, 14/1
Alister Jack 20/1, 20/1, 14/1
Anne-Marie Trevelyan 16/1, 16/1, 20/1
Alok Sharma 20/1, 20/1, 16/1
Brandon Lewis 20/1, 20/1, 40/1
Oliver Dowden 20/1, 20/1, 20/1
Robert Jenrick 20/1, 10/1, 20/1
Dominic Raab 25/1, 20/1, 20/1
Rishi Sunak 25/1, 20/1, 25/1
Baroness Evans 33/1, 33/1, 20/1
Amanda Milling unq, unq, 25/1
Keen readers may have spotted that I do not know how to format tables!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Merrick_Garland_Supreme_Court_nomination
Some never-Trump Republicans have been working on electing right wing judges for years. For instance, Rick Wilson, who wrote Everything Trump Touches Dies.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rick_Wilson_(political_consultant)
The darkest time for government was always going to be those few weeks before they could signal meaningful easing of the lockdown. When the numbers of dead stayed stubbornly high, inexplicable to the casual observor. When everyone was getting listless. Why can't we go out now? Like that bloke I never voted for - and certainly won't be voting for next time....
It has now dangled the shiny new thing of a weekend BBQ and soon, shopping! Meanwhile, the scary prospect of forensic investigation of care home deaths by the media recedes. Who wants to be reminded of dead old people - when you can form a socially-distanced queue for a sausage in a bun in the sun?
Brexit Derangement Syndrome. Dom has played it brilliantly to his advantage - by being the ultimate bait. Sure, he will have hated being the guy in the spotlight, rather than the shadows. But, hey, if that is what it took to deflect and get us to the easing of restrictions. He knew it was inevitable the story would come out. Come on Newsnight, come on Today Programme, come on Channel 4 News, come on Guardian, come on SKY - here is my chest. Fire your rubber-tipped arrows at me. Chance of me ending up skewered like St. Sebastian? Nil.
Classic Dom.
ETA You are nonetheless right about the effect in distracting attention from real scandals.
Of course, Plato pointed out that Donald Trump was making the right noises in the right places to get elected. There are none so deaf as those that will not hear.
Sounds like they got it spot on...
People do not fall down the stairs less becaus of corons virus. People under 60 have died, these are people whose skills need to be replaced. People under 60 still get very ill and have put a big burdon on the NHS. The prime minister is in this category, and every person of working age unable to work because of the disease is a hit to the economy. Do not forget the personal pain and anguish caused by deaths and illnesses regardless of the victim's age.
The UK has been hit by this virus, but has avoided disaster, ... just. The reason for this has been the lockdown.
It is reasonable now to slowly wind the restrictions down as the infection rate is decreasing. The reason for this wind down is NOT because people are more at risk of falling down stairs than dying of covid.
That probably isn’t helping.
But really, the reason they are angry is because everyone is angry. The Cummings story feeds into every single negative narrative about the Tories. Their wealth, their arrogance, their elitism, the difference between their lives and the lives of most people. Most of all, however, it builds on the idea that they think rules only apply to other people, and that’s never a good look whoever and whenever is in power.
This is very much a dodgy dossier moment. Nobody was prosecuted, although in the end it cost Campbell his job, and the judge exonerated him, accepting his version of events. But how many people still think Campbell lied on oath all the way through? It will dog him for the rest of his life.
And in a way, this is worse - although arguably it shouldn’t be - because lockdown and quarantine affected everyone in the country directly in a way the Iraq war didn’t.
In 6 months time this will be the most unpopular government in history and there's nothing Boris can do about it
https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1266255085102751745
Last weekend, he did nothing wrong, nothing to see here.
Now, sure he did it, but you shouldn't.
Any benefit of any doubt has not so much gone as been fired into space from a giant cannon wrapped around a thermonuclear device that then detonated.
A huge amount of political capital has been expended. For what?
But because of the retrospective and novel reinterpretation of the rules, it undoubtedly will.
We have gone from ‘this is what you must do,’ to ‘this is what would help. But if you really want to do something else you can if you think it’s right.’
https://twitter.com/BrianSimsPA/status/1265787518974377991?s=19
Important state for the upcoming general election
I suggest that if we appear to be getting to a situation where the Tories are going to get an electoral hammering, then some at least MP's for (once) Red Wall seats may decide to rebel, reasoning that they just might save themselves if they appear to be 'putting their constituents first', rather than party loyalty. They won't all be able to do a runner for a less endangered seat, as David Amess did in 1979.
https://twitter.com/garystreeterSWD/status/1266047678070296576
To be honest, looking at those odds I’m not currently tempted by any of them. If the Conservatives go to 2-1 for most seats, that would probably be value but not at evens. 11-8 on is rather generous for Labour though even given the Cummings fiasco.
In other words, those areas where Conservative support is at its newest and flakiest.
I wonder, for starters, what will happen to Jaguar Land Rover and JCB, who between them dominate pretty much the whole economy of Staffordshire outside Burton.
That's ok with me, because my judgements fine. How's yours?
This is mere fluff of course, but so are other things. Boris has lost at least as much ground as he gained by coming back from the dead and naming his sprog after the doctors who brought him back. And while all this happens SKS grows in stature by keeping still and doing nothing.
Edit - would be quite amusing though to see some genuinely independent MPs in those seats, rather than party patsies that too many of them had to put up with (with honourable exceptions like Bolsover).
I suspect that Starmer and his mob aren't savvy enough to come up with an alternative so it could be worse for them
From Monday we can have six people round for a barbecue. But Sunday evening is almost Monday. And surely nine are allowed if we divide them into two groups. That sort of thing is the danger.
ETA I see this point has been made already; never mind.
I think your ‘only a fool’ remarks get to the nub of the problem though.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-australia-52844272
If the economy bounces back with a vengence then this incident will fade in public memory. But if it tanks, then the cartoon of the car crash is likely to become a meme with UK Economy written on the side of the car.
These people are possibly going to be a bit less forgiving of mistakes made by the government in relation to care homes now that they know how the government reacts to its senior members breaking its own rules.
These are not hermetically sealed issues.
Like he did
Not amongst the PB fanbois, obviously, but the public in general, and Tory MPs in particular.
All other considerations aside, we’ll only get a rough idea of the number of deaths in 2-3 years time, when we can see how large the spike in the death rate was above the rolling average either side.
And in some countries (e.g. China) we won’t even get that, because the figures will have been fiddled, while in others (e.g. Venezuela) it’s most unlikely they’re actually being collated at all outside certain small areas.
lol.
Care homes will come up as an issue in the inevitable public enquiry
Every observation, measurement or statistic comes with a degree of error. This error does not, in itself, make the measurement worthless.
So, we cannot yet be certain whether the death rate is higher in Spain, Italy or the UK, because of the errors. However, we can be certain that the death rate in all three countries is worse than in Germany, despite the errors.
So we can say useful and consequential things with imperfect data. Why pretend otherwise?
?
This could have been Boris's Stalingrad: from now on the BBC panzers will be in constant retreat towards Broadcasting House.
(I may have overdone the military metaphors there...)
What I think we will see is a slow down in the rate of decline of the virus. Indeed our numbers already show some signs of plateauing. Effective trace, test and isolate will be needed to improve things further and we don't have that yet.
I think longer term the government will be screwed by all this, irrespective of any good or bad things it did. Those will only affect the flavour of any criticism.
I’d say this isn’t going to make a major change to public views.
Yes we may see a 2nd wave, but if it is containable, that is probably the correct trade off in order to get the economy working again.
To put it another way: extra work now for the NHS to avoid budget cuts later.
The problem is more, as Collins observes, that the Government has lost the air of competence. People will be cautiously pleased by the lockdown relaxations, but inclined to attribute them to Johnson wanting to change the subject rather than the successful nexr stage of a masterplan. If no widespread resurgence of the virus follows, people will move on from that too and we'll be debating economic aftermath and Brexit. But the Government's reserves of credibility have been spent, and the next problem will be hard to handle.
Speaking of Brexit, my understanding from a Downing Street contact (politics is a small world, even across party) is that the Government is planning on No Deal - not just contingency planning, but actively assuming it. They are encouraging friendly writers to discuss the new freedoms which No Deal will facilitate. Have they thought through the downsides? I really don't think they have.
So it will once again fall down on what scientific advice the government received as to whether it has acted reasonably, since in the absence of unanimity of opinion, an impossibility, that contrary voices exist doesnt prove anything. What advice led to the decision and what that advice was based on would.
Laters.
PB moves a market. Again.
Still, even 8/11 looks generous.