Oddly enough, in a similar counterfactual vein, I've just watched SS-GB from 2017. The ending is somewhat different from the Len Deighton novel as were a number of other aspects but still not too bad.
Looking at what's going on, I'm drawn to the inescapable conclusion we've got this virus response/lockdown thing all wrong.
We should force everyone under 50 to lockdown at home for three months during June, July and August - no trips out, no social mixing.
The rest of us can then enjoy a peaceful and relaxing summer with the shops, pubs, beaches, restaurants and all the other paraphernalia of summer open and available.
I'd go further - everyone over 50 gets three months paid holiday from Sunak (add in free train and bus travel because he clearly has billions to give away) while those under 50 are allowed out only to go to work.
I see the state propaganda unit is up to its usual tricks
Talking to Arlene Foster, this morning, Marr says the deaths rates are:
In N Ireland: 26 per 100 000 46 per 100 000 in England and Wales 51 in Scotland
The source is not declared. Given the devolved covid-19 strategies, it’s not clear why the England & Wales figures are grouped. Anyhow the actual figures are:
Scotland 43.3 England 61.1 Wales 42.4 N Ireland 27.8
And, of course, even these figures are unreliable compared with the excess mortality scores or Z-scores:
Z-scores: England: peak 43.5 in week 15, now 31.52 in week 18 Scotland: peak at 15.65 in week 15, now 5.82 in week 18 NI peak 8.8 in week 15, now -1.1 in week 18 Wales peak 19.76 in week 15, now 2.44 in week 18
The Black Visions Collective Movement and Legal Fund, a Black, trans and queer-led organization, is helping lead the protests and advocating to defund the police in Minnesota.
Reclaim the Block, a Minnesota org that lobbies for defunding the police and re-routing funds to affordable housing, health, violence prevention, civil right and renter protections.
Defund the police will achieve what? Lower crime? What about better fund the police to be properly trained?
And paying the bail for "protesters". So these people are happy to bail people who you don't know what they were arrested for, and more than likely for looting and violence.
The Black Visions Collective Movement and Legal Fund, a Black, trans and queer-led organization, is helping lead the protests and advocating to defund the police in Minnesota.
Reclaim the Block, a Minnesota org that lobbies for defunding the police and re-routing funds to affordable housing, health, violence prevention, civil right and renter protections.
Defund the police will achieve what? Lower crime? What about better fund the police to be properly trained?
And paying the bail for "protesters". So these people are happy to bail people who you don't know what they were arrested for, and more than likely for looting and violence.
So you're saying the death of Mr Floyd was justified?
The Black Visions Collective Movement and Legal Fund, a Black, trans and queer-led organization, is helping lead the protests and advocating to defund the police in Minnesota.
Reclaim the Block, a Minnesota org that lobbies for defunding the police and re-routing funds to affordable housing, health, violence prevention, civil right and renter protections.
Defund the police will achieve what? Lower crime? What about better fund the police to be properly trained?
And paying the bail for "protesters". So these people are happy to bail people who you don't know what they were arrested for, and more than likely for looting and violence.
So you're saying the death of Mr Floyd was justified?
Of course not, but funding anarchist groups won't help either. But for a load of white folks on twitter, ashamed of their white privilege it seems this is what they are doing.
Saw This House on Thursday night. I'm a huge fan of the show but it lost quite a bit in translation to the screen. The physical theatre interludes were strangely hypnotic in the auditorium but felt weird on screen. And some of the performances are definitely playing to the back row. Terrific writing though.
I had a conversation with a director friend this morning and she told me one of the theatres she was due to work in in October is drawing up contingencies plan for live remote viewing of the winter season with the audience all at home. This feels like a terrible idea - theatre isn't designed to be seen on a small screen, it's designed to be experienced in the presence of other people, in the sanctity of the theatre.
Obviously I want to ensure that everyone is safe, but I will be first in line for tickets once live performances are starting again.
The Black Visions Collective Movement and Legal Fund, a Black, trans and queer-led organization, is helping lead the protests and advocating to defund the police in Minnesota.
Reclaim the Block, a Minnesota org that lobbies for defunding the police and re-routing funds to affordable housing, health, violence prevention, civil right and renter protections.
Defund the police will achieve what? Lower crime? What about better fund the police to be properly trained?
And paying the bail for "protesters". So these people are happy to bail people who you don't know what they were arrested for, and more than likely for looting and violence.
If you stop paying for police, you end up with anarchy.
What they should be doing is putting up a candidate to be elected police commissioner, and let the people decide who they want in charge.
The woke metropolitan leftists also need to consider what turning a culture war into an actual war looks like under anarchy. Will they be arguing over black and transgender representation, while their opponents are buying up all the ammunition?
The Black Visions Collective Movement and Legal Fund, a Black, trans and queer-led organization, is helping lead the protests and advocating to defund the police in Minnesota.
Reclaim the Block, a Minnesota org that lobbies for defunding the police and re-routing funds to affordable housing, health, violence prevention, civil right and renter protections.
Defund the police will achieve what? Lower crime? What about better fund the police to be properly trained?
And paying the bail for "protesters". So these people are happy to bail people who you don't know what they were arrested for, and more than likely for looting and violence.
If you stop paying for police, you end up with anarchy.
What they should be doing is putting up a candidate to be elected police commissioner, and let the people decide who they want in charge.
The woke metropolitan leftists also need to consider what turning a culture war into an actual war looks like under anarchy. Will they be arguing over black and transgender representation, while their opponents are buying up all the ammunition?
Murdering Black people isn't a culture war.
Saying Murdering Black people is wrong also isn't a culture war.
The Black Visions Collective Movement and Legal Fund, a Black, trans and queer-led organization, is helping lead the protests and advocating to defund the police in Minnesota.
Reclaim the Block, a Minnesota org that lobbies for defunding the police and re-routing funds to affordable housing, health, violence prevention, civil right and renter protections.
Defund the police will achieve what? Lower crime? What about better fund the police to be properly trained?
And paying the bail for "protesters". So these people are happy to bail people who you don't know what they were arrested for, and more than likely for looting and violence.
If you stop paying for police, you end up with anarchy.
What they should be doing is putting up a candidate to be elected police commissioner, and let the people decide who they want in charge.
The woke metropolitan leftists also need to consider what turning a culture war into an actual war looks like under anarchy. Will they be arguing over black and transgender representation, while their opponents are buying up all the ammunition?
Murdering Black people isn't a culture war.
Saying Murdering Black people is wrong also isn't a culture war.
Trying to defund police departments for your anarchist agenda is though.
Looking at what's going on, I'm drawn to the inescapable conclusion we've got this virus response/lockdown thing all wrong.
We should force everyone under 50 to lockdown at home for three months during June, July and August - no trips out, no social mixing.
The rest of us can then enjoy a peaceful and relaxing summer with the shops, pubs, beaches, restaurants and all the other paraphernalia of summer open and available.
I'd go further - everyone over 50 gets three months paid holiday from Sunak (add in free train and bus travel because he clearly has billions to give away) while those under 50 are allowed out only to go to work.
The US is such a famously litigious society, you can sue for burning your gob on a coffee. Why don't these people sue? (I mean the families of the victims of police brutality)
Fun (by which I mean slightly interesting to me) Fact! My mate is Walter Harrison’s grandson. He’s totally unpolitical and I don’t think he appreciates the impact of his granddad’s 1979 decision.
I see the state propaganda unit is up to its usual tricks
Talking to Arlene Foster, this morning, Marr says the deaths rates are:
In N Ireland: 26 per 100 000 46 per 100 000 in England and Wales 51 in Scotland
The source is not declared. Given the devolved covid-19 strategies, it’s not clear why the England & Wales figures are grouped. Anyhow the actual figures are:
Scotland 43.3 England 61.1 Wales 42.4 N Ireland 27.8
And, of course, even these figures are unreliable compared with the excess mortality scores or Z-scores:
Z-scores: England: peak 43.5 in week 15, now 31.52 in week 18 Scotland: peak at 15.65 in week 15, now 5.82 in week 18 NI peak 8.8 in week 15, now -1.1 in week 18 Wales peak 19.76 in week 15, now 2.44 in week 18
If we keep getting people huddling together on beaches and at BLM marches, we will be needing all 200,000 of those fairly soon.
One would've assumed that the screamfests were much more hazardous events than a load of beached whales flopping about on the sand? Then again, the screamfests are most likely being attended predominantly by the young so they shouldn't make too much difference to anything either.
The US is such a famously litigious society, you can sue for burning your gob on a coffee. Why don't these people sue? (I mean the families of the victims of police brutality)
I see the state propaganda unit is up to its usual tricks
Talking to Arlene Foster, this morning, Marr says the deaths rates are:
In N Ireland: 26 per 100 000 46 per 100 000 in England and Wales 51 in Scotland
The source is not declared. Given the devolved covid-19 strategies, it’s not clear why the England & Wales figures are grouped. Anyhow the actual figures are:
Scotland 43.3 England 61.1 Wales 42.4 N Ireland 27.8
And, of course, even these figures are unreliable compared with the excess mortality scores or Z-scores:
Z-scores: England: peak 43.5 in week 15, now 31.52 in week 18 Scotland: peak at 15.65 in week 15, now 5.82 in week 18 NI peak 8.8 in week 15, now -1.1 in week 18 Wales peak 19.76 in week 15, now 2.44 in week 18
Perhaps there is a political benefit for PHE and the Westminster government to lump the England and Wales together.
I don't believe so. Scotland and Northern Ireland each have separate statistical agencies but England and Wales do not and are therefore more commonly grouped together.
I see the state propaganda unit is up to its usual tricks
Talking to Arlene Foster, this morning, Marr says the deaths rates are:
In N Ireland: 26 per 100 000 46 per 100 000 in England and Wales 51 in Scotland
The source is not declared. Given the devolved covid-19 strategies, it’s not clear why the England & Wales figures are grouped. Anyhow the actual figures are:
Scotland 43.3 England 61.1 Wales 42.4 N Ireland 27.8
And, of course, even these figures are unreliable compared with the excess mortality scores or Z-scores:
Z-scores: England: peak 43.5 in week 15, now 31.52 in week 18 Scotland: peak at 15.65 in week 15, now 5.82 in week 18 NI peak 8.8 in week 15, now -1.1 in week 18 Wales peak 19.76 in week 15, now 2.44 in week 18
Perhaps there is a political benefit for PHE and the Westminster government to lump the England and Wales together.
I don't believe so. Scotland and Northern Ireland each have separate statistical agencies but England and Wales do not and are therefore more commonly grouped together.
Still does not condone the blatant lies, trying to claim Scotland is 200% of England when it is in fact 65%. BBC are just state mouthpieces.
The BLM movement is a bit like Extinction Rebellion. There is a genuine issue, but the leaders of these movements are about much more. They don't just want the police to better held accountable for their crimes or for the government to tilt our economy to be more green to tackle climate change, they want total overthrow of the capitalist system, and they aren't exactly secretive about it.
The problem is lots of people who get wrapped up in these movements don't realise they are being used for a much bigger goal.
The BLM movement is a bit like Extinction Rebellion. There is a genuine issue, but the leaders of these movements are about much more. They don't just want the police to better held accountable for their crimes or for the government to tilt our economy to be more green to tackle climate change, they want total overthrow of the capitalist system.
Fairly certain they'd be happy with the state not Murdering Black people with impunity.
I see the state propaganda unit is up to its usual tricks
Talking to Arlene Foster, this morning, Marr says the deaths rates are:
In N Ireland: 26 per 100 000 46 per 100 000 in England and Wales 51 in Scotland
The source is not declared. Given the devolved covid-19 strategies, it’s not clear why the England & Wales figures are grouped. Anyhow the actual figures are:
Scotland 43.3 England 61.1 Wales 42.4 N Ireland 27.8
And, of course, even these figures are unreliable compared with the excess mortality scores or Z-scores:
Z-scores: England: peak 43.5 in week 15, now 31.52 in week 18 Scotland: peak at 15.65 in week 15, now 5.82 in week 18 NI peak 8.8 in week 15, now -1.1 in week 18 Wales peak 19.76 in week 15, now 2.44 in week 18
Perhaps there is a political benefit for PHE and the Westminster government to lump the England and Wales together.
I don't believe so. Scotland and Northern Ireland each have separate statistical agencies but England and Wales do not and are therefore more commonly grouped together.
Malcolm has managed it. So even if they are based in an office in Newport, surely they have the imagination to sepate out the figures based on local authority or health board.
The BLM movement is a bit like Extinction Rebellion. There is a genuine issue, but the leaders of these movements are about much more. They don't just want the police to better held accountable for their crimes or for the government to tilt our economy to be more green to tackle climate change, they want total overthrow of the capitalist system.
Fairly certain they'd be happy with the state not Murdering Black people with impunity.
Nope. The 3 founders of BLM are very clear that they want prison abolished, the police defunded and advocate Marxist polices. Its not about righting wrongs to improve the system, it is about overthrowing the system.
The eco-fascists are the same. They don't just want the government to fund some more solar panels and electric cars, they want the capitalist system to be broken up and for us to all live in communes.
The BLM movement is a bit like Extinction Rebellion. There is a genuine issue, but the leaders of these movements are about much more. They don't just want the police to better held accountable for their crimes or for the government to tilt our economy to be more green to tackle climate change, they want total overthrow of the capitalist system, and they aren't exactly secretive about it.
The problem is lots of people who get wrapped up in these movements don't realise they are being used for a much bigger goal.
Reading this the possibility of a second wave is down to how long immunity is retained for post infection. So if immunity is in the order of years, which is certianly not unlikely, there may never be on.
This is odd, as my understanding of the second wave would be that it would be caused by suckers like me who have spent months hanging around at home coming into contact with the still extant viral reservoir and then passing it on to some other suckers. I'm happy to be corrected in a positive way though.
The BLM movement is a bit like Extinction Rebellion. There is a genuine issue, but the leaders of these movements are about much more. They don't just want the police to better held accountable for their crimes or for the government to tilt our economy to be more green to tackle climate change, they want total overthrow of the capitalist system.
Fairly certain they'd be happy with the state not Murdering Black people with impunity.
Nope. The 3 founders of BLM are very clear that they want prison abolished, the police defunded and advocate Marxist polices. Its not about righting wrongs to improve the system, it is about overthrowing the system.
The eco-fascists are the same. They don't just want the government to fund some more solar panels and electric cars, they want the capitalist system to be broken up and for us to all live in communes.
Could we try the state not Murdering Black people with impunity first?
The BLM movement is a bit like Extinction Rebellion. There is a genuine issue, but the leaders of these movements are about much more. They don't just want the police to better held accountable for their crimes or for the government to tilt our economy to be more green to tackle climate change, they want total overthrow of the capitalist system.
Fairly certain they'd be happy with the state not Murdering Black people with impunity.
Nope. The 3 founders of BLM are very clear that they want prison abolished, the police defunded and advocate Marxist polices. Its not about righting wrongs to improve the system, it is about overthrowing the system.
The eco-fascists are the same. They don't just want the government to fund some more solar panels and electric cars, they want the capitalist system to be broken up and for us to all live in communes.
So they won't be getting much of a hearing at either the Republican or Democratic conventions then?
That yearly swingers fest that always gets the tabloid headlines is going to be interesting....no orgies inside the tents, and only 6 maximum may take part at any one time.
The US is such a famously litigious society, you can sue for burning your gob on a coffee. Why don't these people sue? (I mean the families of the victims of police brutality)
I think civil proceedings are bought but, just as in the UK, they cost money so even starting such proceedings may be impossible. Where it is possible then the risk of bankrupting yourself without making a scratch on the other party far outweighs the benefit.
A criminal case carries far more weight and of course shows that the criminal justice system actually accepts that there is a case to be bought.
Let's find ludicrous edge cases. It will be useful *and* enlightening.
My favourite edge case was when the government effectively said it was ok for two fifteen year olds to make home made porn, but it would be a crime for them to watch it back.
The BLM movement is a bit like Extinction Rebellion. There is a genuine issue, but the leaders of these movements are about much more. They don't just want the police to better held accountable for their crimes or for the government to tilt our economy to be more green to tackle climate change, they want total overthrow of the capitalist system.
Fairly certain they'd be happy with the state not Murdering Black people with impunity.
Nope. The 3 founders of BLM are very clear that they want prison abolished, the police defunded and advocate Marxist polices. Its not about righting wrongs to improve the system, it is about overthrowing the system.
The eco-fascists are the same. They don't just want the government to fund some more solar panels and electric cars, they want the capitalist system to be broken up and for us to all live in communes.
Don’t the American protestors realise that their opponents are going to be the working class rural hillbillies they so despise? Except that said hillbillies all have guns, and know how to use them.
The BLM movement is a bit like Extinction Rebellion. There is a genuine issue, but the leaders of these movements are about much more. They don't just want the police to better held accountable for their crimes or for the government to tilt our economy to be more green to tackle climate change, they want total overthrow of the capitalist system.
Fairly certain they'd be happy with the state not Murdering Black people with impunity.
Nope. The 3 founders of BLM are very clear that they want prison abolished, the police defunded and advocate Marxist polices. Its not about righting wrongs to improve the system, it is about overthrowing the system.
The eco-fascists are the same. They don't just want the government to fund some more solar panels and electric cars, they want the capitalist system to be broken up and for us to all live in communes.
Could we try the state not Murdering Black people with impunity first?
Well first the officer has been charged has he not. Secondly, it is not incompatible to point out something is wrong, while those organizing have a much bigger agenda, and that a load of useful idiots are donating to organisations that advocate absolutely insane policies.
As I say, same with eco-fascists. There is nothing the government could do that would meet their ultimate demands.
And the whole antifia mob. There isn't a white supremacist insight and they are still smashing up downtown Portland.
But don't we still have to fork out for this fund anyway if the transition period is extended, and all the stuff with Cummings is just a Remainer plot to ensure that happens? (I think I'm following this correctly.)
Doesn’t really support the widespread PB view that people breaking lockdown during the April warm spell would trigger a second/third/fourth spike, does it?
But don't we still have to fork out for this fund anyway if the transition period is extended, and all the stuff with Cummings is just a Remainer plot to ensure that happens? (I think I'm following this correctly.)
Yes, extending the transition period comes complete with our ‘share’ of the €750bn bill attached to it as part of next year’s EU budget, as well as the usual £350m a week. Why do you think Barnier is so desparate for the extension?
But don't we still have to fork out for this fund anyway if the transition period is extended, and all the stuff with Cummings is just a Remainer plot to ensure that happens? (I think I'm following this correctly.)
It's part of the next EU budget which doesn't include the UK. I assume that if the UK extends then an interim bill for the benefit of Single Market access will be thrashed out - hence the 30 June deadline as these things can't be sorted out between 11pm and midnight on 31 December.
Reading this the possibility of a second wave is down to how long immunity is retained for post infection. So if immunity is in the order of years, which is certianly not unlikely, there may never be on.
This is odd, as my understanding of the second wave would be that it would be caused by suckers like me who have spent months hanging around at home coming into contact with the still extant viral reservoir and then passing it on to some other suckers. I'm happy to be corrected in a positive way though.
As I understand it, there are multiple possible second waves.
They fall into two categories: ones that strike after a first wave has run through a population and burned out, and ones that strike after restrictions have limited a first wave significantly.
The first type strike after either the antibody-generated immunity to the first wave wears off, or the virus mutates to overcome this, or environmental factors shift to make infection either a lot more likely or more severe (eg going to winter or to summer)
The second type strike after restrictions have been suppressing an infection, but are lifted without pushing it down sufficiently to extinguish it (eg in New Zealand, or Guernsey, or probably Norway) or are lifted too far and too quickly. Then, thanks to the issue that if you have the same problem with the same population in the same conditions and the same behaviours (ie an endemic virus with negligible herd immunity and with restoration of full social mixing), the same thing will happen (virus spreads as before).
We've had people trying to find reasons why it will actually be different (relying on things like extra immunity and a far wider spread that for some reason hasn't shown up in antibodies). Some of these reasons may be plausible, if highly unlikely. As Sagan said: extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence.
Personally, I'd love these ideas to be true. Part of me clings to the hope that maybe - just maybe - they might be. But unfortunately what evidence we do have points in the other direction and most of the claims from similar sources have been shown to be ungrounded in reality.
Still, maybe there is some reason why it'll not resurge if we abandon social distancing completely. I wouldn't bet many lives on it, though. Or the economy.
But don't we still have to fork out for this fund anyway if the transition period is extended, and all the stuff with Cummings is just a Remainer plot to ensure that happens? (I think I'm following this correctly.)
Yes, extending the transition period comes complete with our ‘share’ of the €750bn bill attached to it, as well as the usual £350m a week. Why do you think Barnier is so desparate for the extension?
Well the bill has already been split across all the payers and all the recpients and has been agreed in that form. Barnier has been explaining to the UK what its options are nothing more. Fortunately the UK government and the whisky salesman who is representing it are keen for the country's economy to get to the bottom of the cliff as quickly as possible.
The US is such a famously litigious society, you can sue for burning your gob on a coffee. Why don't these people sue? (I mean the families of the victims of police brutality)
I think civil proceedings are bought but, just as in the UK, they cost money so even starting such proceedings may be impossible. Where it is possible then the risk of bankrupting yourself without making a scratch on the other party far outweighs the benefit.
A criminal case carries far more weight and of course shows that the criminal justice system actually accepts that there is a case to be bought.
"bought" is good. The US has permitted no win no fee arrangements much longer than we have, so the case can be funded by the lawyer. Secondly, in the US you typically don't get your costs paid by the other side if you win. So the risks of bringing civil proceedings is low. I am pretty sure they will be suing - indeed it may not be reported because it isn't newsworthy.
Reading this the possibility of a second wave is down to how long immunity is retained for post infection. So if immunity is in the order of years, which is certianly not unlikely, there may never be on.
This is odd, as my understanding of the second wave would be that it would be caused by suckers like me who have spent months hanging around at home coming into contact with the still extant viral reservoir and then passing it on to some other suckers. I'm happy to be corrected in a positive way though.
As I understand it, there are multiple possible second waves.
They fall into two categories: ones that strike after a first wave has run through a population and burned out, and ones that strike after restrictions have limited a first wave significantly.
The first type strike after either the antibody-generated immunity to the first wave wears off, or the virus mutates to overcome this, or environmental factors shift to make infection either a lot more likely or more severe (eg going to winter or to summer)
The second type strike after restrictions have been suppressing an infection, but are lifted without pushing it down sufficiently to extinguish it (eg in New Zealand, or Guernsey, or probably Norway) or are lifted too far and too quickly. Then, thanks to the issue that if you have the same problem with the same population in the same conditions and the same behaviours (ie an endemic virus with negligible herd immunity and with restoration of full social mixing), the same thing will happen (virus spreads as before).
We've had people trying to find reasons why it will actually be different (relying on things like extra immunity and a far wider spread that for some reason hasn't shown up in antibodies). Some of these reasons may be plausible, if highly unlikely. As Sagan said: extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence.
Personally, I'd love these ideas to be true. Part of me clings to the hope that maybe - just maybe - they might be. But unfortunately what evidence we do have points in the other direction and most of the claims from similar sources have been shown to be ungrounded in reality.
Still, maybe there is some reason why it'll not resurge if we abandon social distancing completely. I wouldn't bet many lives on it, though. Or the economy.
Agreed, I don't see how the virus cannot fail to start spreading out into the population again once people start interacting again. Naturally social distancing will stil be with us for a while bhe imagery of the disease hitting like a bomb and rippling out with the centre being the first place to be free of disease and it only being present at the edges is highly misleading. The disease is in the UK and in the population at large the "R" number will start increasing as people increase their contact, whether it is below or above 1 now is irrelevant it will continue to be present and will spread exponentially.
I'm going to be staying at home for a little while longer!
The BLM movement is a bit like Extinction Rebellion. There is a genuine issue, but the leaders of these movements are about much more. They don't just want the police to better held accountable for their crimes or for the government to tilt our economy to be more green to tackle climate change, they want total overthrow of the capitalist system.
Fairly certain they'd be happy with the state not Murdering Black people with impunity.
Nope. The 3 founders of BLM are very clear that they want prison abolished, the police defunded and advocate Marxist polices. Its not about righting wrongs to improve the system, it is about overthrowing the system.
The eco-fascists are the same. They don't just want the government to fund some more solar panels and electric cars, they want the capitalist system to be broken up and for us to all live in communes.
Don't get your knickers in a twist. Attending a protest alongside other groups is not an endorsement of those groups, even if they are organising it.
I have been at CND rallies where there were Communists and Quakers, which am I endorsing? I have been at rallies against an EDL march without endorsing the SWP, and I have seen a Vote Leave Rally led by Britain First, but dont think all Leavers endorse their fascism.
Supporting a protest against environmental destruction, the arms trade, or police brutality is protesting these things, and no more than that.
But don't we still have to fork out for this fund anyway if the transition period is extended, and all the stuff with Cummings is just a Remainer plot to ensure that happens? (I think I'm following this correctly.)
It's part of the next EU budget which doesn't include the UK. I assume that if the UK extends then an interim bill for the benefit of Single Market access will be thrashed out - hence the 30 June deadline as these things can't be sorted out between 11pm and midnight on 31 December.
The UK will not extend the transistion and the 1st July looks near odds on for the end of negotiations and UK move to WTO
Barnier still does not seem to understand the transition extension has been legislated against by HMG and the WDA requires in EU law for an extension to be agreed on or before 30th June
We all need to hope that post the 1st July Barnier will realise he has run out of time and will then address the consequencies
The BLM movement is a bit like Extinction Rebellion. There is a genuine issue, but the leaders of these movements are about much more. They don't just want the police to better held accountable for their crimes or for the government to tilt our economy to be more green to tackle climate change, they want total overthrow of the capitalist system.
Fairly certain they'd be happy with the state not Murdering Black people with impunity.
Nope. The 3 founders of BLM are very clear that they want prison abolished, the police defunded and advocate Marxist polices. Its not about righting wrongs to improve the system, it is about overthrowing the system.
The eco-fascists are the same. They don't just want the government to fund some more solar panels and electric cars, they want the capitalist system to be broken up and for us to all live in communes.
Don't get your knickers in a twist. Attending a protest alongside other groups is not an endorsement of those groups, even if they are organising it.
I have been at CND rallies where there were Communists and Quakers, which am I endorsing? I have been at rallies against an EDL march without endorsing the SWP, and I have seen a Vote Leave Rally led by Britain First, but dont think all Leavers endorse their fascism.
Supporting a protest against environmental destruction, the arms trade, or police brutality is protesting these things, and no more than that.
That isn't where the discussion began. See down thread. I was mentioning how people are advocating to donate to a number of organisations, which have bat shit crazy policies. The leaders of BLM have very similar desires e.g. abolish prisons, defund the police.
Reading this the possibility of a second wave is down to how long immunity is retained for post infection. So if immunity is in the order of years, which is certianly not unlikely, there may never be on.
This is odd, as my understanding of the second wave would be that it would be caused by suckers like me who have spent months hanging around at home coming into contact with the still extant viral reservoir and then passing it on to some other suckers. I'm happy to be corrected in a positive way though.
As I understand it, there are multiple possible second waves.
They fall into two categories: ones that strike after a first wave has run through a population and burned out, and ones that strike after restrictions have limited a first wave significantly.
The first type strike after either the antibody-generated immunity to the first wave wears off, or the virus mutates to overcome this, or environmental factors shift to make infection either a lot more likely or more severe (eg going to winter or to summer)
The second type strike after restrictions have been suppressing an infection, but are lifted without pushing it down sufficiently to extinguish it (eg in New Zealand, or Guernsey, or probably Norway) or are lifted too far and too quickly. Then, thanks to the issue that if you have the same problem with the same population in the same conditions and the same behaviours (ie an endemic virus with negligible herd immunity and with restoration of full social mixing), the same thing will happen (virus spreads as before).
We've had people trying to find reasons why it will actually be different (relying on things like extra immunity and a far wider spread that for some reason hasn't shown up in antibodies). Some of these reasons may be plausible, if highly unlikely. As Sagan said: extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence.
Personally, I'd love these ideas to be true. Part of me clings to the hope that maybe - just maybe - they might be. But unfortunately what evidence we do have points in the other direction and most of the claims from similar sources have been shown to be ungrounded in reality.
Still, maybe there is some reason why it'll not resurge if we abandon social distancing completely. I wouldn't bet many lives on it, though. Or the economy.
Agreed, I don't see how the virus cannot fail to start spreading out into the population again once people start interacting again. Naturally social distancing will stil be with us for a while bhe imagery of the disease hitting like a bomb and rippling out with the centre being the first place to be free of disease and it only being present at the edges is highly misleading. The disease is in the UK and in the population at large the "R" number will start increasing as people increase their contact, whether it is below or above 1 now is irrelevant it will continue to be present and will spread exponentially.
I'm going to be staying at home for a little while longer!
The R needs to be above 1 for exponential growth, and below for exponential decay.
But yes, I think sensible folk are not going to expose themselves unnecessarily.
But don't we still have to fork out for this fund anyway if the transition period is extended, and all the stuff with Cummings is just a Remainer plot to ensure that happens? (I think I'm following this correctly.)
It's part of the next EU budget which doesn't include the UK. I assume that if the UK extends then an interim bill for the benefit of Single Market access will be thrashed out - hence the 30 June deadline as these things can't be sorted out between 11pm and midnight on 31 December.
The UK will not extend the transistion and the 1st July looks near odds on for the end of negotiations and UK move to WTO
Barnier still does not seem to understand the transition extension has been legislated against by HMG and the WDA requires in EU law for an extension to be agreed on or before 30th June
We all need to hope that post the 1st July Barnier will realise he has run out of time and will then address the consequencies
Barnier definitely knows that; if you know it he knows it.
No one seems to understand; the EU has set out its stall and that is that ex-members don't get the benefits of existing ones and they certainly don't get preferential access without some commitments. Now you and I can argue about the definition of existing benefits and preferential access and LPF arrangements but the EU is a rules based organisation and what they've offered is is what will be given to the UK.
The UK is an adolescent based organisation that thinks that intermittently weeping or slamming doors will somehow get it what it wants.
But don't we still have to fork out for this fund anyway if the transition period is extended, and all the stuff with Cummings is just a Remainer plot to ensure that happens? (I think I'm following this correctly.)
Yes, extending the transition period comes complete with our ‘share’ of the €750bn bill attached to it, as well as the usual £350m a week. Why do you think Barnier is so desparate for the extension?
Well the bill has already been split across all the payers and all the recpients and has been agreed in that form. Barnier has been explaining to the UK what its options are nothing more. Fortunately the UK government and the whisky salesman who is representing it are keen for the country's economy to get to the bottom of the cliff as quickly as possible.
The frugal states have been given what they wanted: EUR250BN has been added as loans with the original EUR500BN in grants retained. I anticipate that it will get to 1trn by the end. In any case the countries which need the money will get it and the countries that want a yield will get theirs.
But don't we still have to fork out for this fund anyway if the transition period is extended, and all the stuff with Cummings is just a Remainer plot to ensure that happens? (I think I'm following this correctly.)
It's part of the next EU budget which doesn't include the UK. I assume that if the UK extends then an interim bill for the benefit of Single Market access will be thrashed out - hence the 30 June deadline as these things can't be sorted out between 11pm and midnight on 31 December.
The UK will not extend the transistion and the 1st July looks near odds on for the end of negotiations and UK move to WTO
Barnier still does not seem to understand the transition extension has been legislated against by HMG and the WDA requires in EU law for an extension to be agreed on or before 30th June
We all need to hope that post the 1st July Barnier will realise he has run out of time and will then address the consequencies
Once again what do you think WTO terms mean? As I think you are going to be in for a mighty surprise when the first country decides we can't export and sell xyz there and we discover the WTO doesn't actually exist any more...
The BLM movement is a bit like Extinction Rebellion. There is a genuine issue, but the leaders of these movements are about much more. They don't just want the police to better held accountable for their crimes or for the government to tilt our economy to be more green to tackle climate change, they want total overthrow of the capitalist system, and they aren't exactly secretive about it.
The problem is lots of people who get wrapped up in these movements don't realise they are being used for a much bigger goal.
There's a phrase for this, 'useful idiots'.
That is apt - as it is for the white working class voting for Trump there and Boris Brexit here.
But don't we still have to fork out for this fund anyway if the transition period is extended, and all the stuff with Cummings is just a Remainer plot to ensure that happens? (I think I'm following this correctly.)
It's part of the next EU budget which doesn't include the UK. I assume that if the UK extends then an interim bill for the benefit of Single Market access will be thrashed out - hence the 30 June deadline as these things can't be sorted out between 11pm and midnight on 31 December.
The UK will not extend the transistion and the 1st July looks near odds on for the end of negotiations and UK move to WTO
Barnier still does not seem to understand the transition extension has been legislated against by HMG and the WDA requires in EU law for an extension to be agreed on or before 30th June
We all need to hope that post the 1st July Barnier will realise he has run out of time and will then address the consequencies
Barnier definitely knows that; if you know it he knows it.
No one seems to understand; the EU has set out its stall and that is that ex-members don't get the benefits of existing ones and they certainly don't get preferential access without some commitments. Now you and I can argue about the definition of existing benefits and preferential access and LPF arrangements but the EU is a rules based organisation and what they've offered is is what will be given to the UK.
The UK is an adolescent based organisation that thinks that intermittently weeping or slamming doors will somehow get it what it wants.
It won't.
No weeping, no slamming of doors, just not being dictated to on tax rates, state subsidies, and laws ruled by the ECJ
I voted remain but since have supported brexit. I regret TM deal was not passed but we are now in a position, especially post covid, that we will be free to act to mitigate the economic damage and do it on our own terms
Interesting todays poll sees a move to leave and once it becomes clear the EU want 24 billion to keep us in a 2 year transition, and that we become responsible for contributions to Brussels to save the eurozone, that poll is likely to increase substantially
Reading this the possibility of a second wave is down to how long immunity is retained for post infection. So if immunity is in the order of years, which is certianly not unlikely, there may never be on.
This is odd, as my understanding of the second wave would be that it would be caused by suckers like me who have spent months hanging around at home coming into contact with the still extant viral reservoir and then passing it on to some other suckers. I'm happy to be corrected in a positive way though.
As I understand it, there are multiple possible second waves.
They fall into two categories: ones that strike after a first wave has run through a population and burned out, and ones that strike after restrictions have limited a first wave significantly.
The first type strike after either the antibody-generated immunity to the first wave wears off, or the virus mutates to overcome this, or environmental factors shift to make infection either a lot more likely or more severe (eg going to winter or to summer)
The second type strike after restrictions have been suppressing an infection, but are lifted without pushing it down sufficiently to extinguish it (eg in New Zealand, or Guernsey, or probably Norway) or are lifted too far and too quickly. Then, thanks to the issue that if you have the same problem with the same population in the same conditions and the same behaviours (ie an endemic virus with negligible herd immunity and with restoration of full social mixing), the same thing will happen (virus spreads as before).
We've had people trying to find reasons why it will actually be different (relying on things like extra immunity and a far wider spread that for some reason hasn't shown up in antibodies). Some of these reasons may be plausible, if highly unlikely. As Sagan said: extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence.
Personally, I'd love these ideas to be true. Part of me clings to the hope that maybe - just maybe - they might be. But unfortunately what evidence we do have points in the other direction and most of the claims from similar sources have been shown to be ungrounded in reality.
Still, maybe there is some reason why it'll not resurge if we abandon social distancing completely. I wouldn't bet many lives on it, though. Or the economy.
Agreed, I don't see how the virus cannot fail to start spreading out into the population again once people start interacting again. Naturally social distancing will stil be with us for a while bhe imagery of the disease hitting like a bomb and rippling out with the centre being the first place to be free of disease and it only being present at the edges is highly misleading. The disease is in the UK and in the population at large the "R" number will start increasing as people increase their contact, whether it is below or above 1 now is irrelevant it will continue to be present and will spread exponentially.
I'm going to be staying at home for a little while longer!
People abandoned social distancing down here weeks ago. Sure, it’s mostly the young and fit that have been mixing. But, even so, no spike.
Risk segmentation, a la Dr David Katz’ model, is the way forward.
But don't we still have to fork out for this fund anyway if the transition period is extended, and all the stuff with Cummings is just a Remainer plot to ensure that happens? (I think I'm following this correctly.)
Yes, extending the transition period comes complete with our ‘share’ of the €750bn bill attached to it, as well as the usual £350m a week. Why do you think Barnier is so desparate for the extension?
Well the bill has already been split across all the payers and all the recpients and has been agreed in that form. Barnier has been explaining to the UK what its options are nothing more. Fortunately the UK government and the whisky salesman who is representing it are keen for the country's economy to get to the bottom of the cliff as quickly as possible.
The frugal states have been given what they wanted: EUR250BN has been added as loans with the original EUR500BN in grants retained. I anticipate that it will get to 1trn by the end. In any case the countries which need the money will get it and the countries that want a yield will get theirs.
I doubt the frugal states wanted to add an additional 250bn to the program.
Every third country which decides to take part in certain EU systems has to accept the jurisdiction of the ECJ .
If countries can’t cope with that then they don’t get access . Not sure the penny has dropped yet with the UK government. The EU is not going to put together a whole new system of oversight to placate the UK government which has an unhinged view that the ECJ is always out to punish it .
Perhaps Leavers might need to be reminded of one of the biggest cases in ECJ history , on Euro clearing which found in favour of the UK!
Reading this the possibility of a second wave is down to how long immunity is retained for post infection. So if immunity is in the order of years, which is certianly not unlikely, there may never be on.
This is odd, as my understanding of the second wave would be that it would be caused by suckers like me who have spent months hanging around at home coming into contact with the still extant viral reservoir and then passing it on to some other suckers. I'm happy to be corrected in a positive way though.
As I understand it, there are multiple possible second waves.
They fall into two categories: ones that strike after a first wave has run through a population and burned out, and ones that strike after restrictions have limited a first wave significantly.
The first type strike after either the antibody-generated immunity to the first wave wears off, or the virus mutates to overcome this, or environmental factors shift to make infection either a lot more likely or more severe (eg going to winter or to summer)
The second type strike after restrictions have been suppressing an infection, but are lifted without pushing it down sufficiently to extinguish it (eg in New Zealand, or Guernsey, or probably Norway) or are lifted too far and too quickly. Then, thanks to the issue that if you have the same problem with the same population in the same conditions and the same behaviours (ie an endemic virus with negligible herd immunity and with restoration of full social mixing), the same thing will happen (virus spreads as before).
We've had people trying to find reasons why it will actually be different (relying on things like extra immunity and a far wider spread that for some reason hasn't shown up in antibodies). Some of these reasons may be plausible, if highly unlikely. As Sagan said: extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence.
Personally, I'd love these ideas to be true. Part of me clings to the hope that maybe - just maybe - they might be. But unfortunately what evidence we do have points in the other direction and most of the claims from similar sources have been shown to be ungrounded in reality.
Still, maybe there is some reason why it'll not resurge if we abandon social distancing completely. I wouldn't bet many lives on it, though. Or the economy.
Agreed, I don't see how the virus cannot fail to start spreading out into the population again once people start interacting again. Naturally social distancing will stil be with us for a while bhe imagery of the disease hitting like a bomb and rippling out with the centre being the first place to be free of disease and it only being present at the edges is highly misleading. The disease is in the UK and in the population at large the "R" number will start increasing as people increase their contact, whether it is below or above 1 now is irrelevant it will continue to be present and will spread exponentially.
I'm going to be staying at home for a little while longer!
The R needs to be above 1 for exponential growth, and below for exponential decay.
But yes, I think sensible folk are not going to expose themselves unnecessarily.
Words to live by, especially when the schools go back.
But don't we still have to fork out for this fund anyway if the transition period is extended, and all the stuff with Cummings is just a Remainer plot to ensure that happens? (I think I'm following this correctly.)
It's part of the next EU budget which doesn't include the UK. I assume that if the UK extends then an interim bill for the benefit of Single Market access will be thrashed out - hence the 30 June deadline as these things can't be sorted out between 11pm and midnight on 31 December.
The UK will not extend the transistion and the 1st July looks near odds on for the end of negotiations and UK move to WTO
Barnier still does not seem to understand the transition extension has been legislated against by HMG and the WDA requires in EU law for an extension to be agreed on or before 30th June
We all need to hope that post the 1st July Barnier will realise he has run out of time and will then address the consequencies
Once again what do you think WTO terms mean? As I think you are going to be in for a mighty surprise when the first country decides we can't export and sell xyz there and we discover the WTO doesn't actually exist any more...
I know it will be difficult but remaining tied to the EU is also unacceptable
But don't we still have to fork out for this fund anyway if the transition period is extended, and all the stuff with Cummings is just a Remainer plot to ensure that happens? (I think I'm following this correctly.)
It's part of the next EU budget which doesn't include the UK. I assume that if the UK extends then an interim bill for the benefit of Single Market access will be thrashed out - hence the 30 June deadline as these things can't be sorted out between 11pm and midnight on 31 December.
The UK will not extend the transistion and the 1st July looks near odds on for the end of negotiations and UK move to WTO
Barnier still does not seem to understand the transition extension has been legislated against by HMG and the WDA requires in EU law for an extension to be agreed on or before 30th June
We all need to hope that post the 1st July Barnier will realise he has run out of time and will then address the consequencies
Barnier definitely knows that; if you know it he knows it.
No one seems to understand; the EU has set out its stall and that is that ex-members don't get the benefits of existing ones and they certainly don't get preferential access without some commitments. Now you and I can argue about the definition of existing benefits and preferential access and LPF arrangements but the EU is a rules based organisation and what they've offered is is what will be given to the UK.
The UK is an adolescent based organisation that thinks that intermittently weeping or slamming doors will somehow get it what it wants.
It won't.
No weeping, no slamming of doors, just not being dictated to on tax rates, state subsidies, and laws ruled by the ECJ
I voted remain but since have supported brexit. I regret TM deal was not passed but we are now in a position, especially post covid, that we will be free to act to mitigate the economic damage and do it on our own terms
Interesting todays poll sees a move to leave and once it becomes clear the EU want 24 billion to keep us in a 2 year transition, and that we become responsible for contributions to Brussels to save the eurozone, that poll is likely to increase substantially
The idea that we’ll be able to fix the damage from COVID all by ourselves is laughable. There’s never been a better time to be part of a larger bloc.
But don't we still have to fork out for this fund anyway if the transition period is extended, and all the stuff with Cummings is just a Remainer plot to ensure that happens? (I think I'm following this correctly.)
It's part of the next EU budget which doesn't include the UK. I assume that if the UK extends then an interim bill for the benefit of Single Market access will be thrashed out - hence the 30 June deadline as these things can't be sorted out between 11pm and midnight on 31 December.
The UK will not extend the transistion and the 1st July looks near odds on for the end of negotiations and UK move to WTO
Barnier still does not seem to understand the transition extension has been legislated against by HMG and the WDA requires in EU law for an extension to be agreed on or before 30th June
We all need to hope that post the 1st July Barnier will realise he has run out of time and will then address the consequencies
Barnier definitely knows that; if you know it he knows it.
No one seems to understand; the EU has set out its stall and that is that ex-members don't get the benefits of existing ones and they certainly don't get preferential access without some commitments. Now you and I can argue about the definition of existing benefits and preferential access and LPF arrangements but the EU is a rules based organisation and what they've offered is is what will be given to the UK.
The UK is an adolescent based organisation that thinks that intermittently weeping or slamming doors will somehow get it what it wants.
It won't.
No weeping, no slamming of doors, just not being dictated to on tax rates, state subsidies, and laws ruled by the ECJ
I voted remain but since have supported brexit. I regret TM deal was not passed but we are now in a position, especially post covid, that we will be free to act to mitigate the economic damage and do it on our own terms
Interesting todays poll sees a move to leave and once it becomes clear the EU want 24 billion to keep us in a 2 year transition, and that we become responsible for contributions to Brussels to save the eurozone, that poll is likely to increase substantially
The idea that we’ll be able to fix the damage from COVID all by ourselves is laughable. There’s never been a better time to be part of a larger bloc.
But don't we still have to fork out for this fund anyway if the transition period is extended, and all the stuff with Cummings is just a Remainer plot to ensure that happens? (I think I'm following this correctly.)
Yes, extending the transition period comes complete with our ‘share’ of the €750bn bill attached to it, as well as the usual £350m a week. Why do you think Barnier is so desparate for the extension?
Well the bill has already been split across all the payers and all the recpients and has been agreed in that form. Barnier has been explaining to the UK what its options are nothing more. Fortunately the UK government and the whisky salesman who is representing it are keen for the country's economy to get to the bottom of the cliff as quickly as possible.
The frugal states have been given what they wanted: EUR250BN has been added as loans with the original EUR500BN in grants retained. I anticipate that it will get to 1trn by the end. In any case the countries which need the money will get it and the countries that want a yield will get theirs.
The BLM movement is a bit like Extinction Rebellion. There is a genuine issue, but the leaders of these movements are about much more. They don't just want the police to better held accountable for their crimes or for the government to tilt our economy to be more green to tackle climate change, they want total overthrow of the capitalist system.
Fairly certain they'd be happy with the state not Murdering Black people with impunity.
Nope. The 3 founders of BLM are very clear that they want prison abolished, the police defunded and advocate Marxist polices. Its not about righting wrongs to improve the system, it is about overthrowing the system.
The eco-fascists are the same. They don't just want the government to fund some more solar panels and electric cars, they want the capitalist system to be broken up and for us to all live in communes.
Could we try the state not Murdering Black people with impunity first?
Well first the officer has been charged has he not. Secondly, it is not incompatible to point out something is wrong, while those organizing have a much bigger agenda, and that a load of useful idiots are donating to organisations that advocate absolutely insane policies.
As I say, same with eco-fascists. There is nothing the government could do that would meet their ultimate demands.
And the whole antifia mob. There isn't a white supremacist insight and they are still smashing up downtown Portland.
With “the officer has been charged” you are fundamentally missing the point, being that for every Derek Chauvin who is charged (not yet convicted) there are dozens, hundreds even, of cops that unlawfully kill and injure young black men and get away with it. This is not new - Rodney King anyone?
Many black people consider the whole justice system to be rigged. Compare and contrast the police treatment of George Floyd (who was arrested on suspicion of trying to pay with a fake $20) and the armed white men that occupied the Michigan State House. Prison abolition does not seem so crazy when 2.2% of Black men are imprisoned compared to 0.4% of White men. Many see that state of affairs as a convenient way around the 13th Amendment - black inmates are routinely “employed” (for free or as little as 33c/hr) in state correctional industries, which use inmate labour to manufacture products including furniture and clothing - unskilled work that doesn’t assist anyone get a job on the outside. Seventy five percent of capital murder cases involve white victims, even though blacks and whites are about equally likely to be victims of murder.
Given the way the “system” has treated black people in the States and its constant inability to reform itself I am not entirely surprised many want a new one. Indeed I am surprised there are not more who do.
But don't we still have to fork out for this fund anyway if the transition period is extended, and all the stuff with Cummings is just a Remainer plot to ensure that happens? (I think I'm following this correctly.)
It's part of the next EU budget which doesn't include the UK. I assume that if the UK extends then an interim bill for the benefit of Single Market access will be thrashed out - hence the 30 June deadline as these things can't be sorted out between 11pm and midnight on 31 December.
The UK will not extend the transistion and the 1st July looks near odds on for the end of negotiations and UK move to WTO
Barnier still does not seem to understand the transition extension has been legislated against by HMG and the WDA requires in EU law for an extension to be agreed on or before 30th June
We all need to hope that post the 1st July Barnier will realise he has run out of time and will then address the consequencies
Barnier definitely knows that; if you know it he knows it.
No one seems to understand; the EU has set out its stall and that is that ex-members don't get the benefits of existing ones and they certainly don't get preferential access without some commitments. Now you and I can argue about the definition of existing benefits and preferential access and LPF arrangements but the EU is a rules based organisation and what they've offered is is what will be given to the UK.
The UK is an adolescent based organisation that thinks that intermittently weeping or slamming doors will somehow get it what it wants.
It won't.
No weeping, no slamming of doors, just not being dictated to on tax rates, state subsidies, and laws ruled by the ECJ
I voted remain but since have supported brexit. I regret TM deal was not passed but we are now in a position, especially post covid, that we will be free to act to mitigate the economic damage and do it on our own terms
Interesting todays poll sees a move to leave and once it becomes clear the EU want 24 billion to keep us in a 2 year transition, and that we become responsible for contributions to Brussels to save the eurozone, that poll is likely to increase substantially
24 bn to maintain access to the Single Market is a steal. How much is the UK spending on bailing out its own economy from the lockdown?
The mitigation comes from not tearing up the UK's trading arrangements with nearly every economy in the world which is what is about to happen.
Of course there won't be any bail-out funds for the businesses that go bust when they lose access to their export market on 1 January 2020 and I'm sure the government will tell them that they should have seen it coming but in reality it will be because there isn't any money left.
Frankly telling me that people are happy their neighbours are impoverished because that makes them feel richer, despite actually being poorer makes me all the more content about the UK's coming leap of the top of the multi-storey car park. Don't extend, stop looking back: jump! Maybe if there is anything left at the bottom some sort of counselling can produce a function person (country).
But don't we still have to fork out for this fund anyway if the transition period is extended, and all the stuff with Cummings is just a Remainer plot to ensure that happens? (I think I'm following this correctly.)
It's part of the next EU budget which doesn't include the UK. I assume that if the UK extends then an interim bill for the benefit of Single Market access will be thrashed out - hence the 30 June deadline as these things can't be sorted out between 11pm and midnight on 31 December.
The UK will not extend the transistion and the 1st July looks near odds on for the end of negotiations and UK move to WTO
Barnier still does not seem to understand the transition extension has been legislated against by HMG and the WDA requires in EU law for an extension to be agreed on or before 30th June
We all need to hope that post the 1st July Barnier will realise he has run out of time and will then address the consequencies
Barnier definitely knows that; if you know it he knows it.
No one seems to understand; the EU has set out its stall and that is that ex-members don't get the benefits of existing ones and they certainly don't get preferential access without some commitments. Now you and I can argue about the definition of existing benefits and preferential access and LPF arrangements but the EU is a rules based organisation and what they've offered is is what will be given to the UK.
The UK is an adolescent based organisation that thinks that intermittently weeping or slamming doors will somehow get it what it wants.
It won't.
No weeping, no slamming of doors, just not being dictated to on tax rates, state subsidies, and laws ruled by the ECJ
I voted remain but since have supported brexit. I regret TM deal was not passed but we are now in a position, especially post covid, that we will be free to act to mitigate the economic damage and do it on our own terms
Interesting todays poll sees a move to leave and once it becomes clear the EU want 24 billion to keep us in a 2 year transition, and that we become responsible for contributions to Brussels to save the eurozone, that poll is likely to increase substantially
The idea that we’ll be able to fix the damage from COVID all by ourselves is laughable. There’s never been a better time to be part of a larger bloc.
But don't we still have to fork out for this fund anyway if the transition period is extended, and all the stuff with Cummings is just a Remainer plot to ensure that happens? (I think I'm following this correctly.)
Yes, extending the transition period comes complete with our ‘share’ of the €750bn bill attached to it, as well as the usual £350m a week. Why do you think Barnier is so desparate for the extension?
Well the bill has already been split across all the payers and all the recpients and has been agreed in that form. Barnier has been explaining to the UK what its options are nothing more. Fortunately the UK government and the whisky salesman who is representing it are keen for the country's economy to get to the bottom of the cliff as quickly as possible.
The frugal states have been given what they wanted: EUR250BN has been added as loans with the original EUR500BN in grants retained. I anticipate that it will get to 1trn by the end. In any case the countries which need the money will get it and the countries that want a yield will get theirs.
You seem to ignore eadric explanation altogether
Because he hasn't explained anything and referred to an old article. The original plan was EUR500BN of grants. The frugals didn't like it and so the new proposal adds EUR250BN of loans. The end deal could be up at a EUR1TRN. The bottom line is that the two biggest members of the EU want this and so it is what is going to happen.
But don't we still have to fork out for this fund anyway if the transition period is extended, and all the stuff with Cummings is just a Remainer plot to ensure that happens? (I think I'm following this correctly.)
It's part of the next EU budget which doesn't include the UK. I assume that if the UK extends then an interim bill for the benefit of Single Market access will be thrashed out - hence the 30 June deadline as these things can't be sorted out between 11pm and midnight on 31 December.
The UK will not extend the transistion and the 1st July looks near odds on for the end of negotiations and UK move to WTO
Barnier still does not seem to understand the transition extension has been legislated against by HMG and the WDA requires in EU law for an extension to be agreed on or before 30th June
We all need to hope that post the 1st July Barnier will realise he has run out of time and will then address the consequencies
Barnier definitely knows that; if you know it he knows it.
No one seems to understand; the EU has set out its stall and that is that ex-members don't get the benefits of existing ones and they certainly don't get preferential access without some commitments. Now you and I can argue about the definition of existing benefits and preferential access and LPF arrangements but the EU is a rules based organisation and what they've offered is is what will be given to the UK.
The UK is an adolescent based organisation that thinks that intermittently weeping or slamming doors will somehow get it what it wants.
It won't.
No weeping, no slamming of doors, just not being dictated to on tax rates, state subsidies, and laws ruled by the ECJ
I voted remain but since have supported brexit. I regret TM deal was not passed but we are now in a position, especially post covid, that we will be free to act to mitigate the economic damage and do it on our own terms
Interesting todays poll sees a move to leave and once it becomes clear the EU want 24 billion to keep us in a 2 year transition, and that we become responsible for contributions to Brussels to save the eurozone, that poll is likely to increase substantially
24 bn to maintain access to the Single Market is a steal. How much is the UK spending on bailing out its own economy from the lockdown?
The mitigation comes from not tearing up the UK's trading arrangements with nearly every economy in the world which is what is about to happen.
Of course there won't be any bail-out funds for the businesses that go bust when they lose access to their export market on 1 January 2020 and I'm sure the government will tell them that they should have seen it coming but in reality it will be because there isn't any money left.
Frankly telling me that people are happy their neighbours are impoverished because that makes them feel richer, despite actually being poorer makes me all the more content about the UK's coming leap of the top of the multi-storey car park. Don't extend, stop looking back: jump! Maybe if there is anything left at the bottom some sort of counselling can produce a function person (country).
We voted to leave and leave will happen on the 31st December
Try explaining to the UK not only will we pay 24 billion more into the EU, but also will be on the hook for their debts, and have to obey their laws on tax and state aid and at the same time be under the ECJ
But don't we still have to fork out for this fund anyway if the transition period is extended, and all the stuff with Cummings is just a Remainer plot to ensure that happens? (I think I'm following this correctly.)
Yes, extending the transition period comes complete with our ‘share’ of the €750bn bill attached to it, as well as the usual £350m a week. Why do you think Barnier is so desparate for the extension?
Well the bill has already been split across all the payers and all the recpients and has been agreed in that form. Barnier has been explaining to the UK what its options are nothing more. Fortunately the UK government and the whisky salesman who is representing it are keen for the country's economy to get to the bottom of the cliff as quickly as possible.
The frugal states have been given what they wanted: EUR250BN has been added as loans with the original EUR500BN in grants retained. I anticipate that it will get to 1trn by the end. In any case the countries which need the money will get it and the countries that want a yield will get theirs.
You seem to ignore eadric explanation altogether
Because he hasn't explained anything and referred to an old article. The original plan was EUR500BN of grants. The frugals didn't like it and so the new proposal adds EUR250BN of loans. The end deal could be up at a EUR1TRN. The bottom line is that the two biggest members of the EU want this and so it is what is going to happen.
But don't we still have to fork out for this fund anyway if the transition period is extended, and all the stuff with Cummings is just a Remainer plot to ensure that happens? (I think I'm following this correctly.)
It's part of the next EU budget which doesn't include the UK. I assume that if the UK extends then an interim bill for the benefit of Single Market access will be thrashed out - hence the 30 June deadline as these things can't be sorted out between 11pm and midnight on 31 December.
The UK will not extend the transistion and the 1st July looks near odds on for the end of negotiations and UK move to WTO
Barnier still does not seem to understand the transition extension has been legislated against by HMG and the WDA requires in EU law for an extension to be agreed on or before 30th June
We all need to hope that post the 1st July Barnier will realise he has run out of time and will then address the consequencies
Barnier definitely knows that; if you know it he knows it.
No one seems to understand; the EU has set out its stall and that is that ex-members don't get the benefits of existing ones and they certainly don't get preferential access without some commitments. Now you and I can argue about the definition of existing benefits and preferential access and LPF arrangements but the EU is a rules based organisation and what they've offered is is what will be given to the UK.
The UK is an adolescent based organisation that thinks that intermittently weeping or slamming doors will somehow get it what it wants.
It won't.
No weeping, no slamming of doors, just not being dictated to on tax rates, state subsidies, and laws ruled by the ECJ
I voted remain but since have supported brexit. I regret TM deal was not passed but we are now in a position, especially post covid, that we will be free to act to mitigate the economic damage and do it on our own terms
Interesting todays poll sees a move to leave and once it becomes clear the EU want 24 billion to keep us in a 2 year transition, and that we become responsible for contributions to Brussels to save the eurozone, that poll is likely to increase substantially
The idea that we’ll be able to fix the damage from COVID all by ourselves is laughable. There’s never been a better time to be part of a larger bloc.
Not with the EU economic armageddon
Why? If the EU did collapse over this then the UK would lose its largest single largest export partner (Single Market), that is a market it currently has unfettered access to and on 1 January 2020 will have to pay for access to. The presence of that market is unchanged by the UK's level of access to it.
A lot of leavers and converts to their cause seem to think that the UK would be shielded from an economic collapse in Europe by leaving the EU. However that isn't remotely true: the UK's fate is closely bound to the continent of Europe whatever its EU membership status.
The upshot of the Brexit experiment is that the UK retains that connection (reliance in fact; wars have been fought by the British to maintain a favourable position in Europe), while giving up any influence at all on its future path as we will see with the bailout package.
The UK in its effort to recover from the Covid crist and in general aren't strengthened by Brexit and its influence in Europe will be at its lowest point in centuries.
But don't we still have to fork out for this fund anyway if the transition period is extended, and all the stuff with Cummings is just a Remainer plot to ensure that happens? (I think I'm following this correctly.)
It's part of the next EU budget which doesn't include the UK. I assume that if the UK extends then an interim bill for the benefit of Single Market access will be thrashed out - hence the 30 June deadline as these things can't be sorted out between 11pm and midnight on 31 December.
The UK will not extend the transistion and the 1st July looks near odds on for the end of negotiations and UK move to WTO
Barnier still does not seem to understand the transition extension has been legislated against by HMG and the WDA requires in EU law for an extension to be agreed on or before 30th June
We all need to hope that post the 1st July Barnier will realise he has run out of time and will then address the consequencies
We're going the way of Sweden: as lockdown is relaxed, so we'll have a differentiated system of largely voluntary social distancing and self-segregation, along with an acceptance of a certain number of deaths from the disease. It seems that we're not likely to have a major second spike and to overwhelm the NHS, simply because such a large proportion of the population is too frightened to go out unless forced (for work which cannot be done from home, which won't of course apply to anybody who is retired, or to buy food.)
This, allied to the near-total collapse of mass commuting for office workers, has two important consequences: the fraction of the population that is prepared to go out more regularly is disproportionately younger and therefore much less likely to fall seriously ill with Covid-19; and the effective population density of the country has been greatly reduced, which should have a valuable ongoing restraining effect on the transmission of the virus.
The consequence of this should be mass unemployment (because, even once they are permitted to reopen, the retail and leisure sectors will simply shrink and shrink and shrink, until the remaining capacity matches the remaining number of customers still willing to use them) but not an uncontrollable plague. We'll then limp along in this condition until a treatment or vaccine is developed, because all the people who feel unsafe to go out will either sit in their brick boxes for the rest of their lives, or if they do finally get so desperate to get back into the world they decide to take their chances, then they're not all going to do so at the same time.
But don't we still have to fork out for this fund anyway if the transition period is extended, and all the stuff with Cummings is just a Remainer plot to ensure that happens? (I think I'm following this correctly.)
Yes, extending the transition period comes complete with our ‘share’ of the €750bn bill attached to it, as well as the usual £350m a week. Why do you think Barnier is so desparate for the extension?
Well the bill has already been split across all the payers and all the recpients and has been agreed in that form. Barnier has been explaining to the UK what its options are nothing more. Fortunately the UK government and the whisky salesman who is representing it are keen for the country's economy to get to the bottom of the cliff as quickly as possible.
The frugal states have been given what they wanted: EUR250BN has been added as loans with the original EUR500BN in grants retained. I anticipate that it will get to 1trn by the end. In any case the countries which need the money will get it and the countries that want a yield will get theirs.
You seem to ignore eadric explanation altogether
He's in a parellel universe of eager europhilia where everything the EU does is brilliant and fine and goes perfectly well.
But don't we still have to fork out for this fund anyway if the transition period is extended, and all the stuff with Cummings is just a Remainer plot to ensure that happens? (I think I'm following this correctly.)
Yes, extending the transition period comes complete with our ‘share’ of the €750bn bill attached to it, as well as the usual £350m a week. Why do you think Barnier is so desparate for the extension?
Well the bill has already been split across all the payers and all the recpients and has been agreed in that form. Barnier has been explaining to the UK what its options are nothing more. Fortunately the UK government and the whisky salesman who is representing it are keen for the country's economy to get to the bottom of the cliff as quickly as possible.
The frugal states have been given what they wanted: EUR250BN has been added as loans with the original EUR500BN in grants retained. I anticipate that it will get to 1trn by the end. In any case the countries which need the money will get it and the countries that want a yield will get theirs.
You seem to ignore eadric explanation altogether
Because he hasn't explained anything and referred to an old article. The original plan was EUR500BN of grants. The frugals didn't like it and so the new proposal adds EUR250BN of loans. The end deal could be up at a EUR1TRN. The bottom line is that the two biggest members of the EU want this and so it is what is going to happen.
You simply don't understand anything.
And you simply can't articulate anything. The EU is going to broker a bail-out package and it is going to be split between grants and loans. The EU is going to do everything it can to survive I don't think any of that is in doubt or controversial.
But don't we still have to fork out for this fund anyway if the transition period is extended, and all the stuff with Cummings is just a Remainer plot to ensure that happens? (I think I'm following this correctly.)
It's part of the next EU budget which doesn't include the UK. I assume that if the UK extends then an interim bill for the benefit of Single Market access will be thrashed out - hence the 30 June deadline as these things can't be sorted out between 11pm and midnight on 31 December.
My prediction -
A deal with phase1 starting 1 Jan 2021. End of FM. Fee for 1 years continued frictionless access to the SM.
Target date 31 Dec 2021 to agree phase2. The trade deal.
An extension without an extension. The hot populist issue - immigration - defused.
The trade deal ends up as close alignment - soft Brexit - possibly after further delay (depending on pandemic and extent of economic and financial crisis).
Comments
Good suggestion, will watch this evening.
Watching this right now, SpaceX astronauts and ISS are 50m apart. Hope they ordered the right docking connector!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bIZsnKGV8TE
Oddly enough, in a similar counterfactual vein, I've just watched SS-GB from 2017. The ending is somewhat different from the Len Deighton novel as were a number of other aspects but still not too bad.
We should force everyone under 50 to lockdown at home for three months during June, July and August - no trips out, no social mixing.
The rest of us can then enjoy a peaceful and relaxing summer with the shops, pubs, beaches, restaurants and all the other paraphernalia of summer open and available.
I'd go further - everyone over 50 gets three months paid holiday from Sunak (add in free train and bus travel because he clearly has billions to give away) while those under 50 are allowed out only to go to work.
I can see this being popular.
Talking to Arlene Foster, this morning, Marr says the deaths rates are:
In N Ireland: 26 per 100 000
46 per 100 000 in England and Wales
51 in Scotland
The source is not declared. Given the devolved covid-19 strategies, it’s not clear why the England & Wales figures are grouped. Anyhow the actual figures are:
From worldometers in https://www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
So per 100 000
Scotland 43.3
England 61.1
Wales 42.4
N Ireland 27.8
And, of course, even these figures are unreliable compared with the excess mortality scores or Z-scores:
Z-scores:
England: peak 43.5 in week 15, now 31.52 in week 18
Scotland: peak at 15.65 in week 15, now 5.82 in week 18
NI peak 8.8 in week 15, now -1.1 in week 18
Wales peak 19.76 in week 15, now 2.44 in week 18
https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/
https://www.papermag.com/where-to-donate-protests-minneapolis-2646128317.html
Including funds such as,
The Black Visions Collective Movement and Legal Fund, a Black, trans and queer-led organization, is helping lead the protests and advocating to defund the police in Minnesota.
Reclaim the Block, a Minnesota org that lobbies for defunding the police and re-routing funds to affordable housing, health, violence prevention, civil right and renter protections.
Defund the police will achieve what? Lower crime? What about better fund the police to be properly trained?
And paying the bail for "protesters". So these people are happy to bail people who you don't know what they were arrested for, and more than likely for looting and violence.
Some 205,634 tests were available on Saturday, the government confirmed.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52869875
Did see Space X shoot across the sky at 10:20 last night though. Amazing sight in the spring twilight.
I had a conversation with a director friend this morning and she told me one of the theatres she was due to work in in October is drawing up contingencies plan for live remote viewing of the winter season with the audience all at home. This feels like a terrible idea - theatre isn't designed to be seen on a small screen, it's designed to be experienced in the presence of other people, in the sanctity of the theatre.
Obviously I want to ensure that everyone is safe, but I will be first in line for tickets once live performances are starting again.
What they should be doing is putting up a candidate to be elected police commissioner, and let the people decide who they want in charge.
The woke metropolitan leftists also need to consider what turning a culture war into an actual war looks like under anarchy. Will they be arguing over black and transgender representation, while their opponents are buying up all the ammunition?
Saying Murdering Black people is wrong also isn't a culture war.
States make it hard to sue the police though.
The problem is lots of people who get wrapped up in these movements don't realise they are being used for a much bigger goal.
Laura Spinney"
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/31/covid-19-expert-karl-friston-germany-may-have-more-immunological-dark-matter
The eco-fascists are the same. They don't just want the government to fund some more solar panels and electric cars, they want the capitalist system to be broken up and for us to all live in communes.
This is odd, as my understanding of the second wave would be that it would be caused by suckers like me who have spent months hanging around at home coming into contact with the still extant viral reservoir and then passing it on to some other suckers. I'm happy to be corrected in a positive way though.
https://twitter.com/AdamWagner1/status/1267110299192229891
A criminal case carries far more weight and of course shows that the criminal justice system actually accepts that there is a case to be bought.
As I say, same with eco-fascists. There is nothing the government could do that would meet their ultimate demands.
And the whole antifia mob. There isn't a white supremacist insight and they are still smashing up downtown Portland.
The dog that did not bark.
They fall into two categories: ones that strike after a first wave has run through a population and burned out, and ones that strike after restrictions have limited a first wave significantly.
The first type strike after either the antibody-generated immunity to the first wave wears off, or the virus mutates to overcome this, or environmental factors shift to make infection either a lot more likely or more severe (eg going to winter or to summer)
The second type strike after restrictions have been suppressing an infection, but are lifted without pushing it down sufficiently to extinguish it (eg in New Zealand, or Guernsey, or probably Norway) or are lifted too far and too quickly. Then, thanks to the issue that if you have the same problem with the same population in the same conditions and the same behaviours (ie an endemic virus with negligible herd immunity and with restoration of full social mixing), the same thing will happen (virus spreads as before).
We've had people trying to find reasons why it will actually be different (relying on things like extra immunity and a far wider spread that for some reason hasn't shown up in antibodies). Some of these reasons may be plausible, if highly unlikely. As Sagan said: extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence.
Personally, I'd love these ideas to be true. Part of me clings to the hope that maybe - just maybe - they might be. But unfortunately what evidence we do have points in the other direction and most of the claims from similar sources have been shown to be ungrounded in reality.
Still, maybe there is some reason why it'll not resurge if we abandon social distancing completely. I wouldn't bet many lives on it, though. Or the economy.
I'm going to be staying at home for a little while longer!
I have been at CND rallies where there were Communists and Quakers, which am I endorsing? I have been at rallies against an EDL march without endorsing the SWP, and I have seen a Vote Leave Rally led by Britain First, but dont think all Leavers endorse their fascism.
Supporting a protest against environmental destruction, the arms trade, or police brutality is protesting these things, and no more than that.
Barnier still does not seem to understand the transition extension has been legislated against by HMG and the WDA requires in EU law for an extension to be agreed on or before 30th June
We all need to hope that post the 1st July Barnier will realise he has run out of time and will then address the consequencies
That doesn't help the situation.
But yes, I think sensible folk are not going to expose themselves unnecessarily.
No one seems to understand; the EU has set out its stall and that is that ex-members don't get the benefits of existing ones and they certainly don't get preferential access without some commitments. Now you and I can argue about the definition of existing benefits and preferential access and LPF arrangements but the EU is a rules based organisation and what they've offered is is what will be given to the UK.
The UK is an adolescent based organisation that thinks that intermittently weeping or slamming doors will somehow get it what it wants.
It won't.
My primer for them … with apologies to Neil Kinnock … "Don't get old, don't get fat, don't black, and don't get male.
I voted remain but since have supported brexit. I regret TM deal was not passed but we are now in a position, especially post covid, that we will be free to act to mitigate the economic damage and do it on our own terms
Interesting todays poll sees a move to leave and once it becomes clear the EU want 24 billion to keep us in a 2 year transition, and that we become responsible for contributions to Brussels to save the eurozone, that poll is likely to increase substantially
Risk segmentation, a la Dr David Katz’ model, is the way forward.
If countries can’t cope with that then they don’t get access . Not sure the penny has dropped yet with the UK government. The EU is not going to put together a whole new system of oversight to placate the UK government which has an unhinged view that the ECJ is always out to punish it .
Perhaps Leavers might need to be reminded of one of the biggest cases in ECJ history , on Euro clearing which found in favour of the UK!
Many black people consider the whole justice system to be rigged. Compare and contrast the police treatment of George Floyd (who was arrested on suspicion of trying to pay with a fake $20) and the armed white men that occupied the Michigan State House. Prison abolition does not seem so crazy when 2.2% of Black men are imprisoned compared to 0.4% of White men. Many see that state of affairs as a convenient way around the 13th Amendment - black inmates are routinely “employed” (for free or as little as 33c/hr) in state correctional industries, which use inmate labour to manufacture products including furniture and clothing - unskilled work that doesn’t assist anyone get a job on the outside. Seventy five percent of capital murder cases involve white victims, even though blacks and whites are about equally likely to be victims of murder.
Given the way the “system” has treated black people in the States and its constant inability to reform itself I am not entirely surprised many want a new one. Indeed I am surprised there are not more who do.
The mitigation comes from not tearing up the UK's trading arrangements with nearly every economy in the world which is what is about to happen.
Of course there won't be any bail-out funds for the businesses that go bust when they lose access to their export market on 1 January 2020 and I'm sure the government will tell them that they should have seen it coming but in reality it will be because there isn't any money left.
Frankly telling me that people are happy their neighbours are impoverished because that makes them feel richer, despite actually being poorer makes me all the more content about the UK's coming leap of the top of the multi-storey car park. Don't extend, stop looking back: jump! Maybe if there is anything left at the bottom some sort of counselling can produce a function person (country).
4-, 3- & 2-day date of deaths totals down suggesting downward trend about to pick up again.
Try explaining to the UK not only will we pay 24 billion more into the EU, but also will be on the hook for their debts, and have to obey their laws on tax and state aid and at the same time be under the ECJ
A lot of leavers and converts to their cause seem to think that the UK would be shielded from an economic collapse in Europe by leaving the EU. However that isn't remotely true: the UK's fate is closely bound to the continent of Europe whatever its EU membership status.
The upshot of the Brexit experiment is that the UK retains that connection (reliance in fact; wars have been fought by the British to maintain a favourable position in Europe), while giving up any influence at all on its future path as we will see with the bailout package.
The UK in its effort to recover from the Covid crist and in general aren't strengthened by Brexit and its influence in Europe will be at its lowest point in centuries.
This, allied to the near-total collapse of mass commuting for office workers, has two important consequences: the fraction of the population that is prepared to go out more regularly is disproportionately younger and therefore much less likely to fall seriously ill with Covid-19; and the effective population density of the country has been greatly reduced, which should have a valuable ongoing restraining effect on the transmission of the virus.
The consequence of this should be mass unemployment (because, even once they are permitted to reopen, the retail and leisure sectors will simply shrink and shrink and shrink, until the remaining capacity matches the remaining number of customers still willing to use them) but not an uncontrollable plague. We'll then limp along in this condition until a treatment or vaccine is developed, because all the people who feel unsafe to go out will either sit in their brick boxes for the rest of their lives, or if they do finally get so desperate to get back into the world they decide to take their chances, then they're not all going to do so at the same time.
Hold on! Does that means anything?
A deal with phase1 starting 1 Jan 2021. End of FM. Fee for 1 years continued frictionless access to the SM.
Target date 31 Dec 2021 to agree phase2. The trade deal.
An extension without an extension. The hot populist issue - immigration - defused.
The trade deal ends up as close alignment - soft Brexit - possibly after further delay (depending on pandemic and extent of economic and financial crisis).