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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » With the troubles continuing to sweep across the US Biden take

SystemSystem Posts: 11,682
edited June 2020 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » With the troubles continuing to sweep across the US Biden takes a clear lead in the WH2020 betting

These are very troubling times in the United States with the protests and demonstrations sparked off by the murder by police of a black man in Minneapolis taking place every evening in cities and towns right across the country.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • Options
    Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    Still time for Trump to win
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,602
    Win what ?
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    I worry that violence may push the swing voters to Trump. It will be entirely underserved but looting does not help Biden.
  • Options
    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,097
    Is Trump going to double down on his shithousery as the polls worsen? He seems obsessed with his 'ratings' at the best of times, to the point of cherry picking and misrepresentation. This, needless to say, is not the best of times.
  • Options
    FishingFishing Posts: 4,561
    I wonder if the Americans will finally change the idiotic Electoral College if he wins it again but loses the popular vote decisively. Three times in six elections is more than just odd happenstance.
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Is Trump going to double down on his shithousery as the polls worsen? He seems obsessed with his 'ratings' at the best of times, to the point of cherry picking and misrepresentation. This, needless to say, is not the best of times.

    Wow a rare occasion of the lesser spotted QTWAIY.
  • Options
    brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    I suspect that whatever happens it'll be the opposite of what the odds suggest.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929
    Where was Boris in today's vote ?

    If he'd have paired it'd have to be with Starmer I'd have thought. And Starmer voted down the nonsense. DIsappointed Brady's amendment didn't carry, that would have been a good compromise.
    Expert commentator Ruth Fox who I've never seen take a view on a parliamentary vote before was deeply unimpressed.
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,965
    Fishing said:

    I wonder if the Americans will finally change the idiotic Electoral College if he wins it again but loses the popular vote decisively. Three times in six elections is more than just odd happenstance.

    It would need a Democrat win first. It would be 3 out 6 all in one direction.
    Incidentally the Dems have won the popular vote 6 of the last 7.
    They aren't the out of touch ones as sometimes wrongly portrayed.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,602
    Quite appalling that the senior law officer of the US should have ordered this.

    https://twitter.com/NAChristakis/status/1267927154374905857
  • Options
    Pulpstar said:

    Where was Boris in today's vote ?

    If he'd have paired it'd have to be with Starmer I'd have thought. And Starmer voted down the nonsense. DIsappointed Brady's amendment didn't carry, that would have been a good compromise.
    Expert commentator Ruth Fox who I've never seen take a view on a parliamentary vote before was deeply unimpressed.

    He was plotting to take control. The 'rona better do some subordinate kneeling now.
    https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/1267927521745686528?s=20
  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    FPT

    Alistair said:

    https://twitter.com/timberners_lee/status/1267870995014209536

    The first tweet back says he was a "career criminal".

    Incredible.

    Norman Stanley Fletcher would have been sat on while he died of lack of air under that view of the world.

    Thing is, they are going to throw the book at this guy, rightly, for what he has done.

    Due process will take its course and he will be severely punished, as he should be.

    And if there hadn't been someone filming the whole thing he would have gotten away with it.
    Indeed just like with Ahmaud Arbery too recently.
    There was an interview today with some silly teenagers organising the U.K. protests about Floyd.

    But the stat that jumped out to me was that in the UK 936 BAME individuals have died in police custody/following police contact (eg shooting) since 1990.

    That’s like 30 a year. I had absolutely no idea it was this high
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,216

    Pulpstar said:

    Where was Boris in today's vote ?

    If he'd have paired it'd have to be with Starmer I'd have thought. And Starmer voted down the nonsense. DIsappointed Brady's amendment didn't carry, that would have been a good compromise.
    Expert commentator Ruth Fox who I've never seen take a view on a parliamentary vote before was deeply unimpressed.

    He was plotting to take control. The 'rona better do some subordinate kneeling now.
    https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/1267927521745686528?s=20
    So, like the last three months, he's not been in control?

  • Options
    DougSealDougSeal Posts: 11,138
    Fishing said:

    I wonder if the Americans will finally change the idiotic Electoral College if he wins it again but loses the popular vote decisively. Three times in six elections is more than just odd happenstance.

    It’s essentially impossible to change their constitution now. The country is too divided along partisan lines to be able to get the majorities to alter a single clause. When there was 13 states, much easier, but there hasn’t been an amendment since the early Nineties and that was only because of some college kid being pissed off at a grade he got on a politics paper -

    https://constitutioncenter.org/blog/how-a-c-grade-college-term-paper-led-to-a-constitutional-amendment
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,216

    I worry that violence may push the swing voters to Trump. It will be entirely underserved but looting does not help Biden.

    This. 100x this.

    Silent majority election alert.
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,296

    Pulpstar said:

    Where was Boris in today's vote ?

    If he'd have paired it'd have to be with Starmer I'd have thought. And Starmer voted down the nonsense. DIsappointed Brady's amendment didn't carry, that would have been a good compromise.
    Expert commentator Ruth Fox who I've never seen take a view on a parliamentary vote before was deeply unimpressed.

    He was plotting to take control. The 'rona better do some subordinate kneeling now.
    https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/1267927521745686528?s=20
    Strange headline but then he does go missing
  • Options
    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,097

    Is Trump going to double down on his shithousery as the polls worsen? He seems obsessed with his 'ratings' at the best of times, to the point of cherry picking and misrepresentation. This, needless to say, is not the best of times.

    Wow a rare occasion of the lesser spotted QTWAIY.
    True, it's just a bit mind blowing trying to imagine with what kind of filthy behaviour he can out-Trump his previous record.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    Is this the 2hr queue for McDonalds?
  • Options
    DougSealDougSeal Posts: 11,138

    Pulpstar said:

    Where was Boris in today's vote ?

    If he'd have paired it'd have to be with Starmer I'd have thought. And Starmer voted down the nonsense. DIsappointed Brady's amendment didn't carry, that would have been a good compromise.
    Expert commentator Ruth Fox who I've never seen take a view on a parliamentary vote before was deeply unimpressed.

    He was plotting to take control. The 'rona better do some subordinate kneeling now.
    https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/1267927521745686528?s=20
    So he hasn’t been in control? And why would he have to do this given everything is going so swimmingly?
  • Options
    matthiasfromhamburgmatthiasfromhamburg Posts: 957
    edited June 2020

    Pulpstar said:

    Where was Boris in today's vote ?

    If he'd have paired it'd have to be with Starmer I'd have thought. And Starmer voted down the nonsense. DIsappointed Brady's amendment didn't carry, that would have been a good compromise.
    Expert commentator Ruth Fox who I've never seen take a view on a parliamentary vote before was deeply unimpressed.

    He was plotting to take control. The 'rona better do some subordinate kneeling now.
    https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/1267927521745686528?s=20
    So, like the last three months, he's not been in control?

    Not in "direct control" as the Telegraph has learned. Something or someone has held him back.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,216
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    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,965
    Quite.
    I don't see how a virus running rampant when the rest of the developed world has some sort of control of it.
    40 million unemployed and therefore uninsured (and that's just the ones claiming).
    Cities in flames.
    Is by any stretch Making America Great Again.
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    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 24,383
    DougSeal said:

    Fishing said:

    I wonder if the Americans will finally change the idiotic Electoral College if he wins it again but loses the popular vote decisively. Three times in six elections is more than just odd happenstance.

    It’s essentially impossible to change their constitution now. The country is too divided along partisan lines to be able to get the majorities to alter a single clause. When there was 13 states, much easier, but there hasn’t been an amendment since the early Nineties and that was only because of some college kid being pissed off at a grade he got on a politics paper -

    https://constitutioncenter.org/blog/how-a-c-grade-college-term-paper-led-to-a-constitutional-amendment
    While the Republicans benefit, I doubt there will be any movement.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,667

    I worry that violence may push the swing voters to Trump. It will be entirely underserved but looting does not help Biden.

    This. 100x this.

    Silent majority election alert.
    It will be very old news by November.
  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Pulpstar said:

    Where was Boris in today's vote ?

    If he'd have paired it'd have to be with Starmer I'd have thought. And Starmer voted down the nonsense. DIsappointed Brady's amendment didn't carry, that would have been a good compromise.
    Expert commentator Ruth Fox who I've never seen take a view on a parliamentary vote before was deeply unimpressed.

    He was plotting to take control. The 'rona better do some subordinate kneeling now.
    https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/1267927521745686528?s=20
    So, like the last three months, he's not been in control?

    Not in "direct control" as The Telegraph has learned. Something or someone has held him back.
    To be fair he was in ICU & recovery
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929
    Looks like France is going to do a maximal stress test on viral outdoors transmission too : https://twitter.com/YourAnonCentral/status/1267916344487317504
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,005
    Odds of 50% to 44% are roughly where the polling is now

    https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1267699277482135552?s=20
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    May be the EU will make common cause with us and condemn the Chinese for breaking international law over Hong Kong
  • Options
    DougSealDougSeal Posts: 11,138
    edited June 2020

    I worry that violence may push the swing voters to Trump. It will be entirely underserved but looting does not help Biden.

    This. 100x this.

    Silent majority election alert.
    https://twitter.com/washingtonpost/status/1267838855316733952

    https://twitter.com/davidfrum/status/1267833479959642114
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,216
    Pulpstar said:

    Looks like France is going to do a maximal stress test on viral outdoors transmission too : https://twitter.com/YourAnonCentral/status/1267916344487317504

    The French know a lot about executions. :smiley:
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    Pulpstar said:

    Looks like France is going to do a maximal stress test on viral outdoors transmission too : twitter.com/YourAnonCentral/status/1267916344487317504

    Time for France's summer pastime...
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,667
    edited June 2020

    Is Trump going to double down on his shithousery as the polls worsen? He seems obsessed with his 'ratings' at the best of times, to the point of cherry picking and misrepresentation. This, needless to say, is not the best of times.

    Wow a rare occasion of the lesser spotted QTWAIY.
    True, it's just a bit mind blowing trying to imagine with what kind of filthy behaviour he can out-Trump his previous record.
    He's more likely to make an abrupt u-turn when faced with bad polls, accompanied with outright denial that he was ever pointed in the opposite direction.
  • Options
    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 24,383

    Pulpstar said:

    Where was Boris in today's vote ?

    If he'd have paired it'd have to be with Starmer I'd have thought. And Starmer voted down the nonsense. DIsappointed Brady's amendment didn't carry, that would have been a good compromise.
    Expert commentator Ruth Fox who I've never seen take a view on a parliamentary vote before was deeply unimpressed.

    He was plotting to take control. The 'rona better do some subordinate kneeling now.
    https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/1267927521745686528?s=20
    Strange headline but then he does go missing
    Boris wants to centralise even more power at Number 10, not because this strategy has worked up to now but because power is nice to have. I'm not sure I believe the Telegraph's spin that this is aimed at weakening Dominic Cummings; if the PM's influence rises, so will his Chief's, and only one of them has a concentration span of more than five minutes.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,216
    HYUFD said:
    My town had a very old pub will little bells in the walls behind each table to call the attention of waiters to serve the next round. This had been around since god knows when and lasted until ten or so years ago (the bells are still there to the best of my knowledge, but you don't get the staff these days).

  • Options
    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 24,383
    FPT
    Songs and PB demographics -- all the same era; all the same genre. (For some values of all.)
  • Options
    DougSealDougSeal Posts: 11,138
  • Options
    Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,629
    HYUFD said:
    a bit of cos-play? Whatever turns you on...
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,005
    edited June 2020
    Pulpstar said:

    Looks like France is going to do a maximal stress test on viral outdoors transmission too : https://twitter.com/YourAnonCentral/status/1267916344487317504

    That would be the same France where Marine Le Pen is polling 45% ahead of the 2022 presidential election?

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_French_presidential_election
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929
    As a counterpoint to my - GOP more in favour of the military than the more divided Dems on the issue,....

    The one thing Biden can't be pinned down as is someone on the radical left, Trump's tweets are always about... 'other' or 'Joe's team'; which doesn't accuse Biden directly of being on the AoC/Bernster wing. Because he's not.
    So I think law and order is OK territory for Joe. The black vote might be got out too more than it otherwise would.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,216
    Trump's campaign themes #2:

    "The virus was defeated until BLM rioters all took to the streets at very close distance to each other"
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,667
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    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,613
    HYUFD said:
    I am reminded of the old saying "You don't look at the mantlepiece while you're stoking the fire"

    Night all
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929
    edited June 2020
    They don't allow beer gardens to open and then suddenly the whole caboodle can open up ?
    What's going on lol
  • Options
    Charles said:

    May be the EU will make common cause with us and condemn the Chinese for breaking international law over Hong Kong
    Firstly, the EU repeatedly has expressed concerns about China's behaviour in Hong Kong and secondly, I thought that yesterday's late thread had worked out that "international law" was more a figment of imagination?
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,204

    I worry that violence may push the swing voters to Trump. It will be entirely underserved but looting does not help Biden.

    This. 100x this.

    Silent majority election alert.
    No. Stop worrying. This is only going one way. Trump is not electable in 2020. Please trust me on this.
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,985
    Pulpstar said:
    People have realised that there are bigger risks to their way of life.
  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Charles said:

    May be the EU will make common cause with us and condemn the Chinese for breaking international law over Hong Kong
    Firstly, the EU repeatedly has expressed concerns about China's behaviour in Hong Kong and secondly, I thought that yesterday's late thread had worked out that "international law" was more a figment of imagination?
    In remarkably soft terms

    I didn’t read the last thread. But they have acted in breach of their treaty obligations
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,985
    DougSeal said:
    Plenty of people already wear masks for sex...
  • Options
    houndtanghoundtang Posts: 450
    dixiedean said:

    Fishing said:

    I wonder if the Americans will finally change the idiotic Electoral College if he wins it again but loses the popular vote decisively. Three times in six elections is more than just odd happenstance.

    It would need a Democrat win first. It would be 3 out 6 all in one direction.
    Incidentally the Dems have won the popular vote 6 of the last 7.
    They aren't the out of touch ones as sometimes wrongly portrayed.
    It would need approval by 3/4 of the state legislatures which is incredibly unlikely to happen.
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,623
    Giles Coren has deleted his twitter page after getting into an argument with someone who accused him of being a racist.
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,985

    HYUFD said:
    My town had a very old pub will little bells in the walls behind each table to call the attention of waiters to serve the next round. This had been around since god knows when and lasted until ten or so years ago (the bells are still there to the best of my knowledge, but you don't get the staff these days).

    Time to revive the tradition
  • Options
    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820

    HYUFD said:
    My town had a very old pub will little bells in the walls behind each table to call the attention of waiters to serve the next round. This had been around since god knows when and lasted until ten or so years ago (the bells are still there to the best of my knowledge, but you don't get the staff these days).

    Time to revive the tradition
    Or even better this one:

    https://www.bobbobricard.com/images/bbr/hr/bobbobricard-restaurant-01.jpg
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,988
    Charles said:

    FPT

    Alistair said:

    https://twitter.com/timberners_lee/status/1267870995014209536

    The first tweet back says he was a "career criminal".

    Incredible.

    Norman Stanley Fletcher would have been sat on while he died of lack of air under that view of the world.

    Thing is, they are going to throw the book at this guy, rightly, for what he has done.

    Due process will take its course and he will be severely punished, as he should be.

    And if there hadn't been someone filming the whole thing he would have gotten away with it.
    Indeed just like with Ahmaud Arbery too recently.
    There was an interview today with some silly teenagers organising the U.K. protests about Floyd.

    But the stat that jumped out to me was that in the UK 936 BAME individuals have died in police custody/following police contact (eg shooting) since 1990.

    That’s like 30 a year. I had absolutely no idea it was this high
    That's an appalling number.
  • Options
    valleyboyvalleyboy Posts: 605
    Justin124 on previous thread re Preseli Pembs. Genuine question why is it pretty certain Wales will lose seats in boundary changes?
    Dynamics of 2019? Like everywhere else Brexit and Corbyn.
    Crabbe not popular but this is a Tory marginal. Labour could do with a bit of Cardigan!
  • Options
    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,097

    DougSeal said:
    Plenty of people already wear masks for sex...
    Plenty of people should wear masks for sex.
  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    HYUFD said:
    My town had a very old pub will little bells in the walls behind each table to call the attention of waiters to serve the next round. This had been around since god knows when and lasted until ten or so years ago (the bells are still there to the best of my knowledge, but you don't get the staff these days).

    Time to revive the tradition
    Or even better this one:

    https://www.bobbobricard.com/images/bbr/hr/bobbobricard-restaurant-01.jpg
    Why do you need to press?

    Good staff know your consumption rate and refill you automatically as you approach the 1/3 line
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,985
    edited June 2020

    HYUFD said:
    My town had a very old pub will little bells in the walls behind each table to call the attention of waiters to serve the next round. This had been around since god knows when and lasted until ten or so years ago (the bells are still there to the best of my knowledge, but you don't get the staff these days).

    Time to revive the tradition
    Or even better this one:

    https://www.bobbobricard.com/images/bbr/hr/bobbobricard-restaurant-01.jpg
    Hands up. I’ve pressed that very button (or at least an identical one in the same restaurant).

    Great fun, Bob Bob Ricard. The house stuff is better than the pricier option, I found.
  • Options
    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 24,383
    Andy_JS said:

    Giles Coren has deleted his twitter page after getting into an argument with someone who accused him of being a racist.

    Again? Is this old news or does Coren flounce every six months or so?
  • Options
    brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    Andy_JS said:

    Giles Coren has deleted his twitter page after getting into an argument with someone who accused him of being a racist.

    Refused to kneel? ;)
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929
    Andy_JS said:

    Giles Coren has deleted his twitter page after getting into an argument with someone who accused him of being a racist.

    I've read the exchange, looks like dry self deprecating humour to me. He's realised twitter won't get that though so quickly deleted his account. He'll be back I'm sure he's pulled that particular stunt before.
  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    rcs1000 said:

    Charles said:

    FPT

    Alistair said:

    https://twitter.com/timberners_lee/status/1267870995014209536

    The first tweet back says he was a "career criminal".

    Incredible.

    Norman Stanley Fletcher would have been sat on while he died of lack of air under that view of the world.

    Thing is, they are going to throw the book at this guy, rightly, for what he has done.

    Due process will take its course and he will be severely punished, as he should be.

    And if there hadn't been someone filming the whole thing he would have gotten away with it.
    Indeed just like with Ahmaud Arbery too recently.
    There was an interview today with some silly teenagers organising the U.K. protests about Floyd.

    But the stat that jumped out to me was that in the UK 936 BAME individuals have died in police custody/following police contact (eg shooting) since 1990.

    That’s like 30 a year. I had absolutely no idea it was this high
    That's an appalling number.
    I know. It was the daily mail so may be they are out by a factor of 10, but if not it’s scandalous
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,623
    edited June 2020
    valleyboy said:

    Justin124 on previous thread re Preseli Pembs. Genuine question why is it pretty certain Wales will lose seats in boundary changes?
    Dynamics of 2019? Like everywhere else Brexit and Corbyn.
    Crabbe not popular but this is a Tory marginal. Labour could do with a bit of Cardigan!

    Wales has 40 seats but is only entitled to about 31 based on its proportion of the UK population. (I know constituencies are based on electorate not population but it won't make any difference in this case. The only time there is a difference is when you compare big cities to elsewhere because they have a higher population of non-registered people).

    Wales population: 3.2 million
    UK population: 67.0 million

    Welsh percentage: 4.8%
    4.8% of 650 seats = 31.2 seats
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,988
    edited June 2020
    HYUFD said:
    I do that anyway. Last thing I need is for her to be able to provide a description to the police.
  • Options
    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 24,383
    rcs1000 said:

    Charles said:

    FPT

    Alistair said:

    https://twitter.com/timberners_lee/status/1267870995014209536

    The first tweet back says he was a "career criminal".

    Incredible.

    Norman Stanley Fletcher would have been sat on while he died of lack of air under that view of the world.

    Thing is, they are going to throw the book at this guy, rightly, for what he has done.

    Due process will take its course and he will be severely punished, as he should be.

    And if there hadn't been someone filming the whole thing he would have gotten away with it.
    Indeed just like with Ahmaud Arbery too recently.
    There was an interview today with some silly teenagers organising the U.K. protests about Floyd.

    But the stat that jumped out to me was that in the UK 936 BAME individuals have died in police custody/following police contact (eg shooting) since 1990.

    That’s like 30 a year. I had absolutely no idea it was this high
    That's an appalling number.
    Am I imagining it or has it previously been suggested that police choke holds (or kneeling on the neck) are particularly dangerous for Black victims?
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,965
    kinabalu said:

    I worry that violence may push the swing voters to Trump. It will be entirely underserved but looting does not help Biden.

    This. 100x this.

    Silent majority election alert.
    No. Stop worrying. This is only going one way. Trump is not electable in 2020. Please trust me on this.
    I trust you on this.
    This always was going to be a silent majority election.
    The Americans I have encountered both over there and elsewhere, which is quite a number, has a level of fundamental decency which puts us to shame. For all their brashness and voluminous speech they are lovely people.
    And I trust them to do the right thing.
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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    dixiedean said:

    Fishing said:

    I wonder if the Americans will finally change the idiotic Electoral College if he wins it again but loses the popular vote decisively. Three times in six elections is more than just odd happenstance.

    It would need a Democrat win first. It would be 3 out 6 all in one direction.
    Incidentally the Dems have won the popular vote 6 of the last 7.
    They aren't the out of touch ones as sometimes wrongly portrayed.
    The Dems are out of touch with middle America. They're incredibly popular with the coastal states.

    The popular vote and electoral college reflects that reality. They need to appeal more in the Midwest.
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,965
    houndtang said:

    dixiedean said:

    Fishing said:

    I wonder if the Americans will finally change the idiotic Electoral College if he wins it again but loses the popular vote decisively. Three times in six elections is more than just odd happenstance.

    It would need a Democrat win first. It would be 3 out 6 all in one direction.
    Incidentally the Dems have won the popular vote 6 of the last 7.
    They aren't the out of touch ones as sometimes wrongly portrayed.
    It would need approval by 3/4 of the state legislatures which is incredibly unlikely to happen.
    Yes. I get that bit too.
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,965

    DougSeal said:
    Plenty of people already wear masks for sex...
    I generally find it improves my success rate...
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,005

    dixiedean said:

    Fishing said:

    I wonder if the Americans will finally change the idiotic Electoral College if he wins it again but loses the popular vote decisively. Three times in six elections is more than just odd happenstance.

    It would need a Democrat win first. It would be 3 out 6 all in one direction.
    Incidentally the Dems have won the popular vote 6 of the last 7.
    They aren't the out of touch ones as sometimes wrongly portrayed.
    The Dems are out of touch with middle America. They're incredibly popular with the coastal states.

    The popular vote and electoral college reflects that reality. They need to appeal more in the Midwest.
    It should also be pointed out every elected Republican President until Trump has won over 50% of the popular vote at least once
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,745
    edited June 2020
    Yes, the EU has never failed to speak out meaningfully against bad things in the world.

    Sometimes we do, sometimes the EU does, sometimes we both do, sometimes we both don't. No one is a saint here.
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Dems are down to 1.88 to win.

    My average odds to back is 2.06.

    Do I lay them off now?
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,745

    Is this the 2hr queue for McDonalds?

    I'll have a double cheeseburger, 9 chicken nuggets, large fries and a chocolate milkshake please. And three BBQ dips.
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    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,965

    dixiedean said:

    Fishing said:

    I wonder if the Americans will finally change the idiotic Electoral College if he wins it again but loses the popular vote decisively. Three times in six elections is more than just odd happenstance.

    It would need a Democrat win first. It would be 3 out 6 all in one direction.
    Incidentally the Dems have won the popular vote 6 of the last 7.
    They aren't the out of touch ones as sometimes wrongly portrayed.
    The Dems are out of touch with middle America. They're incredibly popular with the coastal states.

    The popular vote and electoral college reflects that reality. They need to appeal more in the Midwest.
    Which is a fair point. However it could also be said the Republicans are out of touch with coastal America. They need to appeal more to cities, the Pacific, and the Northeast.
    No sign that they are even trying.
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    MattWMattW Posts: 18,536
    edited June 2020
    ..
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,623
    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    Fishing said:

    I wonder if the Americans will finally change the idiotic Electoral College if he wins it again but loses the popular vote decisively. Three times in six elections is more than just odd happenstance.

    It would need a Democrat win first. It would be 3 out 6 all in one direction.
    Incidentally the Dems have won the popular vote 6 of the last 7.
    They aren't the out of touch ones as sometimes wrongly portrayed.
    The Dems are out of touch with middle America. They're incredibly popular with the coastal states.

    The popular vote and electoral college reflects that reality. They need to appeal more in the Midwest.
    It should also be pointed out every elected Republican President until Trump has won over 50% of the popular vote at least once
    Have you ruled out Trump getting 50% this year?
  • Options
    valleyboyvalleyboy Posts: 605
    Andy_JS said:

    valleyboy said:

    Justin124 on previous thread re Preseli Pembs. Genuine question why is it pretty certain Wales will lose seats in boundary changes?
    Dynamics of 2019? Like everywhere else Brexit and Corbyn.
    Crabbe not popular but this is a Tory marginal. Labour could do with a bit of Cardigan!

    Wales has 40 seats but is only entitled to about 31 based on its proportion of the UK population. (I know constituencies are based on electorate not population but it won't make any difference in this case. The only time there is a difference is when you compare big cities to elsewhere because they have a higher population of non-registered people).

    Wales population: 3.2 million
    UK population: 67.0 million

    Welsh percentage: 4.8%
    4.8% of 650 seats = 31.2 seats
    Thanks.
    I suspect there will be a fair degree of horse trading in N Wales with the 'red wall' seats gained by Tories in 2019.
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    dodradedodrade Posts: 595

    HYUFD said:
    My town had a very old pub will little bells in the walls behind each table to call the attention of waiters to serve the next round. This had been around since god knows when and lasted until ten or so years ago (the bells are still there to the best of my knowledge, but you don't get the staff these days).

    Time to bring back snugs?
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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Charles said:

    FPT

    Alistair said:

    https://twitter.com/timberners_lee/status/1267870995014209536

    The first tweet back says he was a "career criminal".

    Incredible.

    Norman Stanley Fletcher would have been sat on while he died of lack of air under that view of the world.

    Thing is, they are going to throw the book at this guy, rightly, for what he has done.

    Due process will take its course and he will be severely punished, as he should be.

    And if there hadn't been someone filming the whole thing he would have gotten away with it.
    Indeed just like with Ahmaud Arbery too recently.
    There was an interview today with some silly teenagers organising the U.K. protests about Floyd.

    But the stat that jumped out to me was that in the UK 936 BAME individuals have died in police custody/following police contact (eg shooting) since 1990.

    That’s like 30 a year. I had absolutely no idea it was this high
    That does sound high but the description also sounds very vague to leave it as open ended as possible. So I wonder what it includes.

    Does it include suicides?
    Does it include drug overdoses?

    Not all of that by any means would be due to brutality. If a child molester for instance is arrested and kills themselves are they included in the statistics?
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    adamandcatadamandcat Posts: 76

    rcs1000 said:

    Charles said:

    FPT

    Alistair said:

    https://twitter.com/timberners_lee/status/1267870995014209536

    The first tweet back says he was a "career criminal".

    Incredible.

    Norman Stanley Fletcher would have been sat on while he died of lack of air under that view of the world.

    Thing is, they are going to throw the book at this guy, rightly, for what he has done.

    Due process will take its course and he will be severely punished, as he should be.

    And if there hadn't been someone filming the whole thing he would have gotten away with it.
    Indeed just like with Ahmaud Arbery too recently.
    There was an interview today with some silly teenagers organising the U.K. protests about Floyd.

    But the stat that jumped out to me was that in the UK 936 BAME individuals have died in police custody/following police contact (eg shooting) since 1990.

    That’s like 30 a year. I had absolutely no idea it was this high
    That's an appalling number.
    Am I imagining it or has it previously been suggested that police choke holds (or kneeling on the neck) are particularly dangerous for Black victims?
    Not a difficult one. 66% of kneeling on somebody's neck by the police is done to black people in Minnesota, who represent 19% of the state population.
  • Options
    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Is Trump going to double down on his shithousery as the polls worsen? He seems obsessed with his 'ratings' at the best of times, to the point of cherry picking and misrepresentation. This, needless to say, is not the best of times.

    Wow a rare occasion of the lesser spotted QTWAIY.
    True, it's just a bit mind blowing trying to imagine with what kind of filthy behaviour he can out-Trump his previous record.
    As My Man Evan McMullin (great value loser in Utah in 2016) said today Trump was willing to gas Americans so he could have a photo op - what would you imagine he would be willing to do to retain power.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,005
    edited June 2020
    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    Fishing said:

    I wonder if the Americans will finally change the idiotic Electoral College if he wins it again but loses the popular vote decisively. Three times in six elections is more than just odd happenstance.

    It would need a Democrat win first. It would be 3 out 6 all in one direction.
    Incidentally the Dems have won the popular vote 6 of the last 7.
    They aren't the out of touch ones as sometimes wrongly portrayed.
    The Dems are out of touch with middle America. They're incredibly popular with the coastal states.

    The popular vote and electoral college reflects that reality. They need to appeal more in the Midwest.
    It should also be pointed out every elected Republican President until Trump has won over 50% of the popular vote at least once
    Have you ruled out Trump getting 50% this year?
    Only two elected Presidents since 1950 have failed to get 50% of the popular vote at least once, JFK and Bill Clinton (though Kennedy would almost certainly have got over 50% in 1964 v Goldwater and Clinton had Perot splitting the vote).

    I would not be surprised if Trump is re elected that he joins that club
  • Options
    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    Fishing said:

    I wonder if the Americans will finally change the idiotic Electoral College if he wins it again but loses the popular vote decisively. Three times in six elections is more than just odd happenstance.

    It would need a Democrat win first. It would be 3 out 6 all in one direction.
    Incidentally the Dems have won the popular vote 6 of the last 7.
    They aren't the out of touch ones as sometimes wrongly portrayed.
    The Dems are out of touch with middle America. They're incredibly popular with the coastal states.

    The popular vote and electoral college reflects that reality. They need to appeal more in the Midwest.
    It should also be pointed out every elected Republican President until Trump has won over 50% of the popular vote at least once
    Have you ruled out Trump getting 50% this year?
    Once Trump completes his pivot to the centre.
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,985
    It’s good that there’s been yet another bungled boundary project as this will give Mike easy material when things quieten down in a week or so
  • Options
    Fysics_TeacherFysics_Teacher Posts: 6,060
    Charles said:

    FPT

    Alistair said:

    https://twitter.com/timberners_lee/status/1267870995014209536

    The first tweet back says he was a "career criminal".

    Incredible.

    Norman Stanley Fletcher would have been sat on while he died of lack of air under that view of the world.

    Thing is, they are going to throw the book at this guy, rightly, for what he has done.

    Due process will take its course and he will be severely punished, as he should be.

    And if there hadn't been someone filming the whole thing he would have gotten away with it.
    Indeed just like with Ahmaud Arbery too recently.
    There was an interview today with some silly teenagers organising the U.K. protests about Floyd.

    But the stat that jumped out to me was that in the UK 936 BAME individuals have died in police custody/following police contact (eg shooting) since 1990.

    That’s like 30 a year. I had absolutely no idea it was this high
    Here is the report on the 2018/19 figures: https://www.policeconduct.gov.uk/sites/default/files/Documents/statistics/deaths_during_following_police_contact_201819.pdf
  • Options
    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Looks like France is going to do a maximal stress test on viral outdoors transmission too : https://twitter.com/YourAnonCentral/status/1267916344487317504

    That would be the same France where Marine Le Pen is polling 45% ahead of the 2022 presidential election?

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_French_presidential_election
    Yay, Le Pen ramping.

    Huzzah.

    Tell us again how many departments she won. I love the classics.
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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    Fishing said:

    I wonder if the Americans will finally change the idiotic Electoral College if he wins it again but loses the popular vote decisively. Three times in six elections is more than just odd happenstance.

    It would need a Democrat win first. It would be 3 out 6 all in one direction.
    Incidentally the Dems have won the popular vote 6 of the last 7.
    They aren't the out of touch ones as sometimes wrongly portrayed.
    The Dems are out of touch with middle America. They're incredibly popular with the coastal states.

    The popular vote and electoral college reflects that reality. They need to appeal more in the Midwest.
    Which is a fair point. However it could also be said the Republicans are out of touch with coastal America. They need to appeal more to cities, the Pacific, and the Northeast.
    No sign that they are even trying.
    They're winning at the moment so don't have as much need to try. But Trump won precisely because he did target blue states in the Midwest etc and Hillary neglected them.

    If the Democrats get their shit together and start taking the Midwest back on narrow margins . . . And if the Democrats manage to flip Texas . . . Then the Electoral could play massively in the Democrats favour. In that scenario it's entirely possible the Democrats could lose the popular vote and win the Presidency at which point expect the GOP to want to abolish the Electoral College and the Democrats to just as suddenly want to keep it.
  • Options
    Fysics_TeacherFysics_Teacher Posts: 6,060
    edited June 2020

    Charles said:

    FPT

    Alistair said:

    https://twitter.com/timberners_lee/status/1267870995014209536

    The first tweet back says he was a "career criminal".

    Incredible.

    Norman Stanley Fletcher would have been sat on while he died of lack of air under that view of the world.

    Thing is, they are going to throw the book at this guy, rightly, for what he has done.

    Due process will take its course and he will be severely punished, as he should be.

    And if there hadn't been someone filming the whole thing he would have gotten away with it.
    Indeed just like with Ahmaud Arbery too recently.
    There was an interview today with some silly teenagers organising the U.K. protests about Floyd.

    But the stat that jumped out to me was that in the UK 936 BAME individuals have died in police custody/following police contact (eg shooting) since 1990.

    That’s like 30 a year. I had absolutely no idea it was this high
    That does sound high but the description also sounds very vague to leave it as open ended as possible. So I wonder what it includes.

    Does it include suicides?
    Does it include drug overdoses?

    Not all of that by any means would be due to brutality. If a child molester for instance is arrested and kills themselves are they included in the statistics?
    The answers are yes, yes and yes.

    Edit: if I’m reading the report right I think eight people died in 18/19 during restraint. Four were white, two black and two “mixed heritage” is I think the term they used.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,745
    Alistair said:

    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    Fishing said:

    I wonder if the Americans will finally change the idiotic Electoral College if he wins it again but loses the popular vote decisively. Three times in six elections is more than just odd happenstance.

    It would need a Democrat win first. It would be 3 out 6 all in one direction.
    Incidentally the Dems have won the popular vote 6 of the last 7.
    They aren't the out of touch ones as sometimes wrongly portrayed.
    The Dems are out of touch with middle America. They're incredibly popular with the coastal states.

    The popular vote and electoral college reflects that reality. They need to appeal more in the Midwest.
    It should also be pointed out every elected Republican President until Trump has won over 50% of the popular vote at least once
    Have you ruled out Trump getting 50% this year?
    Once Trump completes his pivot to the centre.
    He was saving that for his second term. Or third.
  • Options
    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 24,383
    Andy_JS said:

    valleyboy said:

    Justin124 on previous thread re Preseli Pembs. Genuine question why is it pretty certain Wales will lose seats in boundary changes?
    Dynamics of 2019? Like everywhere else Brexit and Corbyn.
    Crabbe not popular but this is a Tory marginal. Labour could do with a bit of Cardigan!

    Wales has 40 seats but is only entitled to about 31 based on its proportion of the UK population. (I know constituencies are based on electorate not population but it won't make any difference in this case. The only time there is a difference is when you compare big cities to elsewhere because they have a higher population of non-registered people).

    Wales population: 3.2 million
    UK population: 67.0 million

    Welsh percentage: 4.8%
    4.8% of 650 seats = 31.2 seats
    In the past a degree of overrepresentation has been accepted to help stop Wales (and Scotland) being drowned out by England. When power was devolved to Scotland, the number of Scottish seats at Westminster was reduced. If I were in charge of Plaid Cymru, I'd use this to call for Scottish levels of devolution, and paint the Conservatives as anti-Welsh.
This discussion has been closed.