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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why Johnson can take little comfort from the Tory voting inten

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited June 2020 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why Johnson can take little comfort from the Tory voting intention poll leads

The latest weekly poll from Opinium the the Observer had the Conservatives with a 4% lead while at the same time the same poll gave Starmer net 30% lead over Johnson in its approval question. On the face of it these two statements about this poll simply don’t make sense. The head of a party in the lead on voting would not, surely, have approval numbers that were so far off.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    edited June 2020
    FTP

    (First to post).
  • MattWMattW Posts: 18,097
    edited June 2020
    Second.

    On topic: Sharp piece, Mike.

    Off topic: Does anyone know who is behind Black Lives Matter UK?

    For an organisation trying to raise half a million via a Crowd Funder, they seem very anonymous. Go Fund Me require a named individual on the campaign, and they don't seem to have one (unless I missed it).

    It is continuous with the (all white iirc) clowns who blocked the City London Airport with the same slogan in 2016. There were whispers then that it was an SWP front, like Stop the War.

    Is it still, and where is the half million going? They have already reached 220k.

    https://www.gofundme.com/f/ukblm-fund?utm_source=customer&utm_medium=copy_link&utm_campaign=p_cf+share-flow-1&fbclid=IwAR36hg81L1BCDW2OlIK62JOTecXapdX5aIB8CjKtVWAuXjwpQRAug8Sk-OY
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    There's an argument someone hinted at the other day that there's a sunk cost fallacy bias in VI - voters regard their vote in December as an investment they are not yet reconciled to writing off - whereas leader approval lacks the same bias.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,926
    eadric said:

    Ok, enough

    Start shooting

    //twitter.com/dehennadavison/status/1268248395224842253?s=21

    Is that you, Donald?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,926

    eristdoof said:

    Willy Brandt knelt in Warsaw:

    "Unter der Last der jüngsten Geschichte tat ich, was Menschen tun, wenn die Worte versagen. So gedachte ich Millionen Ermordeter."

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kniefall_von_Warschau
    Somebody got called an anti-semite and racist on this forum yesterday for mentioning this.
    Well Sunil said this immediately after learning i'm Jewish, I'll let you read between the lines.

    https://politicalbetting.vanillacommunity.com/discussion/comment/2888009#Comment_2888009

    If people wish to virtue-signal about racism I'm more than happy to point out their own.
    What's racist about linking to a Time article about a riot in NYC in 1991?

    For clarity, what I wrote was:

    @brokenwheel is probably old enough to remember this:

    The incident that set off the 1991 Crown Heights riots was easy to pinpoint: on Aug. 19, a car driven by a Hasidic Jew hit and killed a young black child. As a private ambulance took the driver away from the scene and emergency responders worked to free the victim and another child pinned under the car, the area’s black and Jewish residents–who had long been tense neighbors–erupted in anger. As TIME later noted, the result was the worst episode of racial violence in New York City city since 1968, after the death of Martin Luther King.
    https://time.com/3989495/crown-heights-riots-time-magazine-history/


    And what's racist about mentioning Willy Brandt KNEELING to commemorate and apologize for his nation's treatment of European Jews during the War?
    Someone mentions they are a jew and the first thing you do is post an article about a jew murdering a black person and you don't understand how that is a teeny bit racist?
    Er, steady on! Who says it was a deliberate act of murder?

    BTW: “Whoever saves one life saves the world entire.” - the Talmud, as quoted in Schindler's List.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    Alok Sharma apparently feeling like sh** and being tested for the rona atm.

    Going to make Rees-Mogg look kinda silly this, if he's positive they'll surely have to go back to the virtual parliament approach.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,979
    Ave_it said:

    I bet the R in London is about 4 now! 😠

    My latest calculation of R is up to last Thursday the 28th based on reported cases.

    England 0.61 (-0.03)
    London 0.58 (+0.01)
    Richmond had its first case yesterday in the last eight days.

    The impact of today won't be seen until about June 10th.





  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,286
    eadric said:
    There isn't any reason for protestors to be attacking the British police over something that happened 4,000 miles away in another country.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,082
    IshmaelZ said:

    There's an argument someone hinted at the other day that there's a sunk cost fallacy bias in VI - voters regard their vote in December as an investment they are not yet reconciled to writing off - whereas leader approval lacks the same bias.

    yes, it is too early for that false memory of voting against BoZo to feature, but that will be a problem for pollsters later on this parliament.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,972
    Andrew said:

    Alok Sharma apparently feeling like sh** and being tested for the rona atm.

    Going to make Rees-Mogg look kinda silly this, if he's positive they'll surely have to go back to the virtual parliament approach.

    Jacob Rees-Mogg has turned the mother of parliaments into the mother-in-law of parliaments.
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    Barnesian said:

    Ave_it said:

    I bet the R in London is about 4 now! 😠

    My latest calculation of R is up to last Thursday the 28th based on reported cases.

    England 0.61 (-0.03)
    London 0.58 (+0.01)
    Richmond had its first case yesterday in the last eight days.

    The impact of today won't be seen until about June 10th.





    TY let's hope it keeps low Barnesian
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556
    Andy_JS said:

    eadric said:
    There isn't any reason for protestors to be attacking the British police over something that happened 4,000 miles away in another country.
    It's the insanity of the modern Left. I'd like to know whether Starmer supports these 'protests' - and then let's see the effect on his leadership ratings :wink:
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 14,915
    eadric said:
    Second bottle commentary.
  • glwglw Posts: 9,535
    Barnesian said:

    Ave_it said:

    I bet the R in London is about 4 now! 😠

    My latest calculation of R is up to last Thursday the 28th based on reported cases.

    England 0.61 (-0.03)
    London 0.58 (+0.01)
    Richmond had its first case yesterday in the last eight days.

    The impact of today won't be seen until about June 10th.





    I think your charts are useful, but can you do something about the dates on the X axis? You've obviously gone to a fair bit of effort as it is, it would be nice to more clearly see the date for each point on the line.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,037
    Dunno if we've done this already (I can't keep up with the rate of comments on here anymore) but Biden is now less than 70 delegates away from clinching the nomination:

    https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cbsnews.com/amp/news/joe-biden-nears-democratic-party-presidential-nomination-june-2-primaries/

    He'll be there in a week.
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    edited June 2020
    eadric said:

    Ok, enough

    Start shooting

    Or alternatively, just arrest the ones that are criminals.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,037
    Andy_JS said:

    eadric said:
    There isn't any reason for protestors to be attacking the British police over something that happened 4,000 miles away in another country.
    There isn't but the equality and diversity advisor in the HR department says there is.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,979
    glw said:

    Barnesian said:

    Ave_it said:

    I bet the R in London is about 4 now! 😠

    My latest calculation of R is up to last Thursday the 28th based on reported cases.

    England 0.61 (-0.03)
    London 0.58 (+0.01)
    Richmond had its first case yesterday in the last eight days.

    The impact of today won't be seen until about June 10th.





    I think your charts are useful, but can you do something about the dates on the X axis? You've obviously gone to a fair bit of effort as it is, it would be nice to more clearly see the date for each point on the line.
    I'll try. The first date is 23 March - the date of lockdown. Then it's daily thereafter.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    eadric said:

    Ok, enough

    Start shooting

    twitter.com/dehennadavison/status/1268248395224842253?s=21

    Hopefully the weather forecast for 10 days of rain are accurate.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,404
    IshmaelZ said:

    FTP

    (First to post).

    Are there was me thinking you'd gone all Ulster Prod on us!
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    54% of Americans approve of burning down police stations. The silent majority


    https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1267941135521067011?s=19
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,404
    Andrew said:

    Alok Sharma apparently feeling like sh** and being tested for the rona atm.

    Going to make Rees-Mogg look kinda silly this, if he's positive they'll surely have to go back to the virtual parliament approach.

    At least it will keep the contact tracers busy phoning up all the other MPs
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 14,772
    MattW said:

    Second.

    On topic: Sharp piece, Mike.

    Off topic: Does anyone know who is behind Black Lives Matter UK?

    For an organisation trying to raise half a million via a Crowd Funder, they seem very anonymous. Go Fund Me require a named individual on the campaign, and they don't seem to have one (unless I missed it).

    It is continuous with the (all white iirc) clowns who blocked the City London Airport with the same slogan in 2016. There were whispers then that it was an SWP front, like Stop the War.

    Is it still, and where is the half million going? They have already reached 220k.

    https://www.gofundme.com/f/ukblm-fund?utm_source=customer&utm_medium=copy_link&utm_campaign=p_cf+share-flow-1&fbclid=IwAR36hg81L1BCDW2OlIK62JOTecXapdX5aIB8CjKtVWAuXjwpQRAug8Sk-OY

    If it were an SWP front then they would be linking to it, but in the anti-racism section on their website the SWP link to Unite Against Fascism, Love Music Hate Racism, etc, and not Black Lives Matter UK.
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556
    Alistair said:

    54% of Americans approve of burning down police stations. The silent majority


    https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1267941135521067011?s=19

    America really has gone mad...
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,620
    eadric said:
    Two or three times these last few days I have seen you urging nations to shoot their own citizens.

    Give your pathetic bloodthirsty keyboard warmongering a fucking rest.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,404
    Canuck Noir on BBC2 at 9: Cardinal
  • stodgestodge Posts: 12,745
    Alistair said:

    54% of Americans approve of burning down police stations. The silent majority

    https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1267941135521067011?s=19

    Monmouth put Biden ahead of Trump 52-41 so make of that what you will.

    I'm certainly no supporter of burning Police stations or anywhere else but you can certainly put me in the 78% of those who think the anger justified.

    Unfortunately, I fear little or nothing will change - I hope I'm wrong.
  • glwglw Posts: 9,535
    Barnesian said:

    glw said:

    Barnesian said:

    Ave_it said:

    I bet the R in London is about 4 now! 😠

    My latest calculation of R is up to last Thursday the 28th based on reported cases.

    England 0.61 (-0.03)
    London 0.58 (+0.01)
    Richmond had its first case yesterday in the last eight days.

    The impact of today won't be seen until about June 10th.





    I think your charts are useful, but can you do something about the dates on the X axis? You've obviously gone to a fair bit of effort as it is, it would be nice to more clearly see the date for each point on the line.
    I'll try. The first date is 23 March - the date of lockdown. Then it's daily thereafter.
    Thank you.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    Oh boy - the RNC has pulled the plug on the Republican convention in Charlotte. These things take years to organize. How can they make it happen in just a couple of months?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    eadric said:

    Alistair said:

    54% of Americans approve of burning down police stations. The silent majority


    https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1267941135521067011?s=19

    I find that poll extremely hard to believe. Hmm
    At the same time 58% support deploying troops to the streets so Americans can hold multiple views.

    The Justified figure comes from combining the "wholly justified" and "partially justified" figures together
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,972
    Tim_B said:

    Oh boy - the RNC has pulled the plug on the Republican convention in Charlotte. These things take years to organize. How can they make it happen in just a couple of months?

    Believe in the power of Trump.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    eadric said:

    Alistair said:

    54% of Americans approve of burning down police stations. The silent majority


    https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1267941135521067011?s=19

    America really has gone mad...
    There’s something not quite right in this polling. From the same set (I think)

    https://twitter.com/ppollingnumbers/status/1267852145996505097?s=21

    How is the question being asked, in each case?
    Different pollsters, just being reported by a poll agregator
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    edited June 2020
    Watching yesterday's vote. Clear Charles Walker hadn't paid much attention as he asked the sitting whips? which way he needed to vote. No Sharma yet..
    Gavin Newlands admonished for dress code.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 14,772
    stodge said:

    Alistair said:

    54% of Americans approve of burning down police stations. The silent majority

    https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1267941135521067011?s=19

    Monmouth put Biden ahead of Trump 52-41 so make of that what you will.

    I'm certainly no supporter of burning Police stations or anywhere else but you can certainly put me in the 78% of those who think the anger justified.

    Unfortunately, I fear little or nothing will change - I hope I'm wrong.
    Biden can't even win the support of all the people who think burning down police stations is justified. How does he win?
  • EPGEPG Posts: 5,996
    eadric said:
    Shoving?

    We've come a long way from "intern all Muslims" to "just shoot everybody".
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,979
    glw said:

    Barnesian said:

    Ave_it said:

    I bet the R in London is about 4 now! 😠

    My latest calculation of R is up to last Thursday the 28th based on reported cases.

    England 0.61 (-0.03)
    London 0.58 (+0.01)
    Richmond had its first case yesterday in the last eight days.

    The impact of today won't be seen until about June 10th.





    I think your charts are useful, but can you do something about the dates on the X axis? You've obviously gone to a fair bit of effort as it is, it would be nice to more clearly see the date for each point on the line.





  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774
    Hello all.

    The Los Angeles curfew is being loosened this evening. It's gone from 6pm to 6am yesterday, to 9pm to 5am today.

    Which hopefully means I will be able to order takeout this evening.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,265
    eadric said:

    Alistair said:

    54% of Americans approve of burning down police stations. The silent majority


    https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1267941135521067011?s=19

    America really has gone mad...
    There’s something not quite right in this polling. From the same set (I think)

    https://twitter.com/ppollingnumbers/status/1267852145996505097?s=21

    How is the question being asked, in each case?
    Americans rate their soldiers pretty highly. The police, not so much. It wasn't a soldier who appears to have committed manslaughter while three others stood around warching.

    The underlying issue of routine hassles for black people arises here too. I used to know a young lawyer in London who owned an expensive car. He said he wass sropped and asked to prove ownership nearly every week, and presumed it was because he was black - he claimed he wasn't a fast driver, and he certainly wasn't disreputable-looking. I said that was outrageous - he shrugged, and said one gets used to it, he kept his papers handy, and it just wasted a minute. But not everyone remains that phlegmatic.
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    I'm sure burning down police stations will usher in the utopia and have no unintended consequences at all.
  • glwglw Posts: 9,535
    Barnesian said:

    glw said:

    Barnesian said:

    Ave_it said:

    I bet the R in London is about 4 now! 😠

    My latest calculation of R is up to last Thursday the 28th based on reported cases.

    England 0.61 (-0.03)
    London 0.58 (+0.01)
    Richmond had its first case yesterday in the last eight days.

    The impact of today won't be seen until about June 10th.





    I think your charts are useful, but can you do something about the dates on the X axis? You've obviously gone to a fair bit of effort as it is, it would be nice to more clearly see the date for each point on the line.





    That's great. Thanks. :)
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    Andy_JS said:

    eadric said:
    There isn't any reason for protestors to be attacking the British police over something that happened 4,000 miles away in another country.
    Quite. And that there are also things to protest here feels a little hollow since it was all provoked and inspired by the events, and very different context, of something that happened 4000 miles away in another country. Given that, at the very least there should be no problem remaining entirely peaceful.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,288

    Andrew said:

    Alok Sharma apparently feeling like sh** and being tested for the rona atm.

    Going to make Rees-Mogg look kinda silly this, if he's positive they'll surely have to go back to the virtual parliament approach.

    Jacob Rees-Mogg has turned the mother of parliaments into the mother-in-law of parliaments.
    Some mother in laws are wonderful so I am told.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 12,745
    Long term trends are one thing but both the death toll and more especially the new cases number have moved up a little today.

    In a normal week, the Wednesday numbers are usually better than the Tuesday numbers which include some lag from the weekend.

    We'll see if this is just a statistical anomaly but I'm concerned. I draw no comfort from pretty lines on graphs going back to April - it's where we are here and now that matters not where we were two months ago.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    In normal times, a lovely moment..but coronavirus....this is utter madness.

    https://twitter.com/robferdman/status/1267245846384586754?s=20
  • glwglw Posts: 9,535
    eadric said:

    I watched the awful video of Floyd dying. I get the anger. I think vigorous protest is correct and fury is understandable,

    But I doubt a majority of Americans really believe that awful killing justifies ‘burning down a police precinct’; and if you look at the data the questions are leading and emotive and the numbers are vague.

    Eg what does it mean if you think burning down a police precinct is ‘partly justified’? Does it mean you think they should only have burned down one room?

    I suspect this is Americans who share and sympathies with the righteous anger, but also believe the violence went too far

    The worse it gets the more it would play in to Trump's hands — if he keeps his trap shut — making it more likely nothing is done.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    Tim_B said:

    Oh boy - the RNC has pulled the plug on the Republican convention in Charlotte. These things take years to organize. How can they make it happen in just a couple of months?

    Presumably they can make a crappy one happen in a few months.

    To be honest I'm not entirely certain what practical purpose these conventions actually serve (yes yes, to confirm nominations etc) - does anything unexpected and substantive actually occur at them? Or are they really just gaudy displays? I guess our party conferences are a million miles off.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited June 2020
    stodge said:

    Long term trends are one thing but both the death toll and more especially the new cases number have moved up a little today.

    In a normal week, the Wednesday numbers are usually better than the Tuesday numbers which include some lag from the weekend.

    We'll see if this is just a statistical anomaly but I'm concerned. I draw no comfort from pretty lines on graphs going back to April - it's where we are here and now that matters not where we were two months ago.
    It was back dating. 80 new deaths from as far back as March were reported. -5/-4/-3 day totals all down.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,972
    kle4 said:

    Tim_B said:

    Oh boy - the RNC has pulled the plug on the Republican convention in Charlotte. These things take years to organize. How can they make it happen in just a couple of months?

    Presumably they can make a crappy one happen in a few months.

    To be honest I'm not entirely certain what practical purpose these conventions actually serve (yes yes, to confirm nominations etc) - does anything unexpected and substantive actually occur at them? Or are they really just gaudy displays? I guess our party conferences are a million miles off.
    It's basically a week of free advertising/campaigning.
  • I think it will be a Hung Parliament.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    edited June 2020
    She's confused everyone because she's an actual african american, like Elon Musk.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    FT back on the no deal drug shortages....

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1268268962359500800?s=20
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669

    Tim_B said:

    Oh boy - the RNC has pulled the plug on the Republican convention in Charlotte. These things take years to organize. How can they make it happen in just a couple of months?

    Believe in the power of Trump.
    They could always hold it at Doral. That would make never Trumpers heads explode
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    edited June 2020
    stodge said:


    Long term trends are one thing but both the death toll and more especially the new cases number have moved up a little today.

    In a normal week, the Wednesday numbers are usually better than the Tuesday numbers which include some lag from the weekend.

    Those figures are worse than hopeless. Huge weekend effect, bank holidays, and weeks old data. Then you've got the time gap from infection - some of these deaths are from people infected in February.

    The best representation of the current picture seems to be the graph below (coronavirus.data.gov.uk), showing hospital positives on date of specimen. If there's going to be an uptick we'll see it there long before it appears in the death stats.



  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,972

    Andrew said:

    Alok Sharma apparently feeling like sh** and being tested for the rona atm.

    Going to make Rees-Mogg look kinda silly this, if he's positive they'll surely have to go back to the virtual parliament approach.

    Jacob Rees-Mogg has turned the mother of parliaments into the mother-in-law of parliaments.
    Some mother in laws are wonderful so I am told.
    Neither of my in-laws liked me.

    I don't know why a couple of socialist working class plastic Scousers didn't like me?
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    My son cant get his meds now - where is the outrage from FT about shortages now?
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195

    Andrew said:

    Alok Sharma apparently feeling like sh** and being tested for the rona atm.

    Going to make Rees-Mogg look kinda silly this, if he's positive they'll surely have to go back to the virtual parliament approach.

    Jacob Rees-Mogg has turned the mother of parliaments into the mother-in-law of parliaments.
    Some mother in laws are wonderful so I am told.
    Neither of my in-laws liked me.

    I don't know why a couple of socialist working class plastic Scousers didn't like me?
    That's easy - those fecking shoes mate!!!!!!
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,458
    eadric said:

    eadric said:

    Alistair said:

    54% of Americans approve of burning down police stations. The silent majority


    https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1267941135521067011?s=19

    America really has gone mad...
    There’s something not quite right in this polling. From the same set (I think)

    https://twitter.com/ppollingnumbers/status/1267852145996505097?s=21

    How is the question being asked, in each case?
    Americans rate their soldiers pretty highly. The police, not so much. It wasn't a soldier who appears to have committed manslaughter while three others stood around warching.

    The underlying issue of routine hassles for black people arises here too. I used to know a young lawyer in London who owned an expensive car. He said he wass sropped and asked to prove ownership nearly every week, and presumed it was because he was black - he claimed he wasn't a fast driver, and he certainly wasn't disreputable-looking. I said that was outrageous - he shrugged, and said one gets used to it, he kept his papers handy, and it just wasted a minute. But not everyone remains that phlegmatic.
    I watched the awful video of Floyd dying. I get the anger. I think vigorous protest is correct and fury is understandable,

    But I doubt a majority of Americans really believe that awful killing justifies ‘burning down a police precinct’; and if you look at the data the questions are leading and emotive and the numbers are vague.

    Eg what does it mean if you think burning down a police precinct is ‘partly justified’? Does it mean you think they should only have burned down one room?

    I suspect this is Americans who share and sympathies with the righteous anger, but also believe the violence went too far
    Of course it doesnt "justify" it, its a cry for help because they have tried everything else for decades and centuries with progress very slow.
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411

    I think it will be a Hung Parliament.

    I think it's a bit early to make a prediction! 😊
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    rcs1000 said:

    Hello all.

    The Los Angeles curfew is being loosened this evening. It's gone from 6pm to 6am yesterday, to 9pm to 5am today.

    Which hopefully means I will be able to order takeout this evening.

    Quick trip out to skid row :) ?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,926

    Tim_B said:

    Oh boy - the RNC has pulled the plug on the Republican convention in Charlotte. These things take years to organize. How can they make it happen in just a couple of months?

    Believe in the power of Trump.
    He's the greatest President since Lincoln! Who knew?!
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,623
    Barnesian said:

    glw said:

    Barnesian said:

    Ave_it said:

    I bet the R in London is about 4 now! 😠

    My latest calculation of R is up to last Thursday the 28th based on reported cases.

    England 0.61 (-0.03)
    London 0.58 (+0.01)
    Richmond had its first case yesterday in the last eight days.

    The impact of today won't be seen until about June 10th.





    I think your charts are useful, but can you do something about the dates on the X axis? You've obviously gone to a fair bit of effort as it is, it would be nice to more clearly see the date for each point on the line.





    Just because I'm curious rather than anything else...have you got anything that "benchmarks" your curves against anything from a government briefing or equivalent?

    e.g. CMO says on date X that regions Y's R value is estimated to be Z, and your graph's equivalent value is ??? Just for the additional context/interpretation
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,972
    I see Trump has now fallen out with Snapchat.

    https://twitter.com/oneunderscore__/status/1268268816527757318
  • Ave_it said:

    I think it will be a Hung Parliament.

    I think it's a bit early to make a prediction! 😊
    Not predicting, just pontificating
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 24,967

    Andrew said:

    Alok Sharma apparently feeling like sh** and being tested for the rona atm.

    Going to make Rees-Mogg look kinda silly this, if he's positive they'll surely have to go back to the virtual parliament approach.

    Jacob Rees-Mogg has turned the mother of parliaments into the mother-in-law of parliaments.
    Some mother in laws are wonderful so I am told.
    Neither of my in-laws liked me.

    I don't know why a couple of socialist working class plastic Scousers didn't like me?
    Were they Everton fans ?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,625

    stodge said:

    Long term trends are one thing but both the death toll and more especially the new cases number have moved up a little today.

    In a normal week, the Wednesday numbers are usually better than the Tuesday numbers which include some lag from the weekend.

    We'll see if this is just a statistical anomaly but I'm concerned. I draw no comfort from pretty lines on graphs going back to April - it's where we are here and now that matters not where we were two months ago.
    It was back dating. 80 new deaths from as far back as March were reported. -5/-4/-3 day totals all down.
    Just to illustrate what is happening - this is the data reported today by NHS England for hospitals -

    02/06/2020 20
    01/06/2020 47
    31/05/2020 18
    30/05/2020 5
    29/05/2020 9
    28/05/2020 1
    27/05/2020 3
    26/05/2020 3
    25/05/2020 1
    24/05/2020 2
    23/05/2020 3
    22/05/2020 2
    21/05/2020 2
    20/05/2020 1
    19/05/2020 2
    18/05/2020 5
    17/05/2020 2
    16/05/2020 4
    15/05/2020 2
    14/05/2020 3
    13/05/2020 1
    12/05/2020 1
    11/05/2020 2
    10/05/2020 1
    09/05/2020 2
    08/05/2020 2
    07/05/2020 5
    06/05/2020 1
    02/05/2020 1
    30/04/2020 1
    28/04/2020 1
    26/04/2020 1
    23/04/2020 1
    22/04/2020 1
    20/04/2020 1
    16/04/2020 1
    15/04/2020 1
    14/04/2020 1
    13/04/2020 1
    12/04/2020 3
    11/04/2020 1
    10/04/2020 2
    09/04/2020 1
    08/04/2020 2
    05/04/2020 1
    03/04/2020 1
    02/04/2020 2
    01/04/2020 1
    31/03/2020 1
    30/03/2020 1
    24/03/2020 1
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,972

    Andrew said:

    Alok Sharma apparently feeling like sh** and being tested for the rona atm.

    Going to make Rees-Mogg look kinda silly this, if he's positive they'll surely have to go back to the virtual parliament approach.

    Jacob Rees-Mogg has turned the mother of parliaments into the mother-in-law of parliaments.
    Some mother in laws are wonderful so I am told.
    Neither of my in-laws liked me.

    I don't know why a couple of socialist working class plastic Scousers didn't like me?
    Were they Everton fans ?
    Liverpool/Tranmere fans.
  • Every time I think of getting involved in a discussion on PB I look at the comments and not a single one is about the article.

    This forum is not fit for purpose.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842

    Every time I think of getting involved in a discussion on PB I look at the comments and not a single one is about the article.

    This forum is not fit for purpose.

    Hi, thanks for the first post.

    I'll give you a clue. This isn't a forum.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,625

    Every time I think of getting involved in a discussion on PB I look at the comments and not a single one is about the article.

    This forum is not fit for purpose.

    Moderator - an off topic post...

    :-)
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    Every time I think of getting involved in a discussion on PB I look at the comments and not a single one is about the article.

    This forum is not fit for purpose.

    Off topic. Reported.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,328

    Every time I think of getting involved in a discussion on PB I look at the comments and not a single one is about the article.

    This forum is not fit for purpose.

    Moderator - an off topic post...

    :-)
    Methinks comradeogilvy misunderstands the purpose of a header.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941

    Every time I think of getting involved in a discussion on PB I look at the comments and not a single one is about the article.

    This forum is not fit for purpose.

    Welcome comrade!
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,047

    Ave_it said:

    I think it will be a Hung Parliament.

    I think it's a bit early to make a prediction! 😊
    Not predicting, just pontificating
    Would you care to pontificate on the Hyde Park 'protest'? I'm a bit hazy, but I seem to remember your position on one man and his family driving somewhere during lockdown being 'robust'. I'd love to know your opinions on several hundred gathering at close quarters for a bit of horseplay and chucking stuff at the rozzers.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,625

    eadric said:
    Two or three times these last few days I have seen you urging nations to shoot their own citizens.

    Give your pathetic bloodthirsty keyboard warmongering a fucking rest.
    Plus, if the Police start shooting - what if they hit a SeanT?

    The ONS excess deaths would hit 250K in a single day....
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411

    Every time I think of getting involved in a discussion on PB I look at the comments and not a single one is about the article.

    This forum is not fit for purpose.

    Are you Starmer? He doesn't understand politics either.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,458
    FAO Mr Sharma

    Self isolate means stay at home. Do not drive 350 miles to a country retreat (with or without planning permission).

    If you feel the need to test your eyesight for a drive, wait til the opticians open and use a government driver in the mean time.

    Hope that helps.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,926

    Every time I think of getting involved in a discussion on PB I look at the comments and not a single one is about the article.

    This forum is not fit for purpose.

    "Are you not entertained? Are you not entertained? Is this not why you are here?"
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,840
    Breaking.
    Charges against Officer Chauvin raised to 2nd degree murder.
    Other 3 "aiding and abetting homicide."
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,584

    I see Trump has now fallen out with Snapchat.

    https://twitter.com/oneunderscore__/status/1268268816527757318

    In retaliation, he’s occupied the Lincoln Memorial,,..

    https://twitter.com/KevinMKruse/status/1267977010909007877
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,625

    eadric said:

    Alistair said:

    54% of Americans approve of burning down police stations. The silent majority


    https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1267941135521067011?s=19

    America really has gone mad...
    There’s something not quite right in this polling. From the same set (I think)

    https://twitter.com/ppollingnumbers/status/1267852145996505097?s=21

    How is the question being asked, in each case?
    Americans rate their soldiers pretty highly. The police, not so much. It wasn't a soldier who appears to have committed manslaughter while three others stood around warching.

    The underlying issue of routine hassles for black people arises here too. I used to know a young lawyer in London who owned an expensive car. He said he wass sropped and asked to prove ownership nearly every week, and presumed it was because he was black - he claimed he wasn't a fast driver, and he certainly wasn't disreputable-looking. I said that was outrageous - he shrugged, and said one gets used to it, he kept his papers handy, and it just wasted a minute. But not everyone remains that phlegmatic.
    My ex from years back was from West Africa, a lawyer and drove a high end SUV with black-out back windows - to keep the sun off the kids.

    We used to get stopped, on average, once a week.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,328

    eadric said:

    eadric said:

    Alistair said:

    54% of Americans approve of burning down police stations. The silent majority


    https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1267941135521067011?s=19

    America really has gone mad...
    There’s something not quite right in this polling. From the same set (I think)

    https://twitter.com/ppollingnumbers/status/1267852145996505097?s=21

    How is the question being asked, in each case?
    Americans rate their soldiers pretty highly. The police, not so much. It wasn't a soldier who appears to have committed manslaughter while three others stood around warching.

    The underlying issue of routine hassles for black people arises here too. I used to know a young lawyer in London who owned an expensive car. He said he wass sropped and asked to prove ownership nearly every week, and presumed it was because he was black - he claimed he wasn't a fast driver, and he certainly wasn't disreputable-looking. I said that was outrageous - he shrugged, and said one gets used to it, he kept his papers handy, and it just wasted a minute. But not everyone remains that phlegmatic.
    I watched the awful video of Floyd dying. I get the anger. I think vigorous protest is correct and fury is understandable,

    But I doubt a majority of Americans really believe that awful killing justifies ‘burning down a police precinct’; and if you look at the data the questions are leading and emotive and the numbers are vague.

    Eg what does it mean if you think burning down a police precinct is ‘partly justified’? Does it mean you think they should only have burned down one room?

    I suspect this is Americans who share and sympathies with the righteous anger, but also believe the violence went too far
    Of course it doesnt "justify" it, its a cry for help because they have tried everything else for decades and centuries with progress very slow.
    I could see a reasonable person concluding:
    1. The anger is justifiable and thus sympathize with it
    2. Looting is wrong, but nothing in comparison to the injustices visited upon those black people whose lives have been taken by the police, and perhaps even understandable as a means of getting this issue the attention it needs even while being wrong
    3. Law and order must be imposed at some point, and so the use of the military to do so if needed is supportable.

    I am not saying that those are my positions (I agree with 1 and 2, not 3), but that it would be perfectly rational for someone to believe all three.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 24,967
    Andrew said:

    stodge said:


    Long term trends are one thing but both the death toll and more especially the new cases number have moved up a little today.

    In a normal week, the Wednesday numbers are usually better than the Tuesday numbers which include some lag from the weekend.

    Those figures are worse than hopeless. Huge weekend effect, bank holidays, and weeks old data. Then you've got the time gap from infection - some of these deaths are from people infected in February.

    The best representation of the current picture seems to be the graph below (coronavirus.data.gov.uk), showing hospital positives on date of specimen. If there's going to be an uptick we'll see it there long before it appears in the death stats.



    Though that doesn't show the effect of the limited amount of testing before May.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,047
    Floater said:

    My son cant get his meds now - where is the outrage from FT about shortages now?
    What until the transition period has expired, then they'll be beating a path to your door for the exclusive rights...
  • BannedinnParisBannedinnParis Posts: 1,884

    Barnesian said:

    glw said:

    Barnesian said:

    Ave_it said:

    I bet the R in London is about 4 now! 😠

    My latest calculation of R is up to last Thursday the 28th based on reported cases.

    England 0.61 (-0.03)
    London 0.58 (+0.01)
    Richmond had its first case yesterday in the last eight days.

    The impact of today won't be seen until about June 10th.





    I think your charts are useful, but can you do something about the dates on the X axis? You've obviously gone to a fair bit of effort as it is, it would be nice to more clearly see the date for each point on the line.





    Just because I'm curious rather than anything else...have you got anything that "benchmarks" your curves against anything from a government briefing or equivalent?

    e.g. CMO says on date X that regions Y's R value is estimated to be Z, and your graph's equivalent value is ??? Just for the additional context/interpretation
    government estimate is in some of their presentations - 0.7 - 0.9 was the last estimate but happy to be updated.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,755
    eadric said:

    eadric said:
    Second bottle commentary.

    Not even on my second g&t. Barely started
    Have you 'inspected' your underground bunker in Penarth yet? The contagion of insurrection can spread quickly.
  • BannedinnParisBannedinnParis Posts: 1,884

    Barnesian said:

    glw said:

    Barnesian said:

    Ave_it said:

    I bet the R in London is about 4 now! 😠

    My latest calculation of R is up to last Thursday the 28th based on reported cases.

    England 0.61 (-0.03)
    London 0.58 (+0.01)
    Richmond had its first case yesterday in the last eight days.

    The impact of today won't be seen until about June 10th.





    I think your charts are useful, but can you do something about the dates on the X axis? You've obviously gone to a fair bit of effort as it is, it would be nice to more clearly see the date for each point on the line.





    Just because I'm curious rather than anything else...have you got anything that "benchmarks" your curves against anything from a government briefing or equivalent?

    e.g. CMO says on date X that regions Y's R value is estimated to be Z, and your graph's equivalent value is ??? Just for the additional context/interpretation
    government estimate is in some of their presentations - 0.7 - 0.9 was the last estimate but happy to be updated.
    28th May - https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/888353/2020-05-28_COVID-19_Press_Conference_Slides.pdf

    Slide 7

  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,458
    TimT said:

    eadric said:

    eadric said:

    Alistair said:

    54% of Americans approve of burning down police stations. The silent majority


    https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1267941135521067011?s=19

    America really has gone mad...
    There’s something not quite right in this polling. From the same set (I think)

    https://twitter.com/ppollingnumbers/status/1267852145996505097?s=21

    How is the question being asked, in each case?
    Americans rate their soldiers pretty highly. The police, not so much. It wasn't a soldier who appears to have committed manslaughter while three others stood around warching.

    The underlying issue of routine hassles for black people arises here too. I used to know a young lawyer in London who owned an expensive car. He said he wass sropped and asked to prove ownership nearly every week, and presumed it was because he was black - he claimed he wasn't a fast driver, and he certainly wasn't disreputable-looking. I said that was outrageous - he shrugged, and said one gets used to it, he kept his papers handy, and it just wasted a minute. But not everyone remains that phlegmatic.
    I watched the awful video of Floyd dying. I get the anger. I think vigorous protest is correct and fury is understandable,

    But I doubt a majority of Americans really believe that awful killing justifies ‘burning down a police precinct’; and if you look at the data the questions are leading and emotive and the numbers are vague.

    Eg what does it mean if you think burning down a police precinct is ‘partly justified’? Does it mean you think they should only have burned down one room?

    I suspect this is Americans who share and sympathies with the righteous anger, but also believe the violence went too far
    Of course it doesnt "justify" it, its a cry for help because they have tried everything else for decades and centuries with progress very slow.
    I could see a reasonable person concluding:
    1. The anger is justifiable and thus sympathize with it
    2. Looting is wrong, but nothing in comparison to the injustices visited upon those black people whose lives have been taken by the police, and perhaps even understandable as a means of getting this issue the attention it needs even while being wrong
    3. Law and order must be imposed at some point, and so the use of the military to do so if needed is supportable.

    I am not saying that those are my positions (I agree with 1 and 2, not 3), but that it would be perfectly rational for someone to believe all three.
    I would agree with all 3 with the proviso that we are miles away from military intervention being necessary so it is true but not applicable for what we have seen. In Indian Hindu-Muslim riots you might see dozens killed each day, by that point military intervention is needed.

    For those who want to see less looting, by far the best way of achieving that is treating people with equal respect and dignity, recognising when the system is heavily biased against groups and committing to changing that. Thats what will work, not sending in Rambo.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,328

    eadric said:

    Alistair said:

    54% of Americans approve of burning down police stations. The silent majority


    https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1267941135521067011?s=19

    America really has gone mad...
    There’s something not quite right in this polling. From the same set (I think)

    https://twitter.com/ppollingnumbers/status/1267852145996505097?s=21

    How is the question being asked, in each case?
    Americans rate their soldiers pretty highly. The police, not so much. It wasn't a soldier who appears to have committed manslaughter while three others stood around warching.

    The underlying issue of routine hassles for black people arises here too. I used to know a young lawyer in London who owned an expensive car. He said he wass sropped and asked to prove ownership nearly every week, and presumed it was because he was black - he claimed he wasn't a fast driver, and he certainly wasn't disreputable-looking. I said that was outrageous - he shrugged, and said one gets used to it, he kept his papers handy, and it just wasted a minute. But not everyone remains that phlegmatic.
    My ex from years back was from West Africa, a lawyer and drove a high end SUV with black-out back windows - to keep the sun off the kids.

    We used to get stopped, on average, once a week.
    My wife works in the OR in a hospital in a market town in PA. The black nurses when stopped in their vehicles by police call the hospital front desk and leave the phone open until the police officer leaves, just in case something happens to them. This is wrong.
  • Ave_it said:

    I think it will be a Hung Parliament.

    I think it's a bit early to make a prediction! 😊
    Not predicting, just pontificating
    Would you care to pontificate on the Hyde Park 'protest'? I'm a bit hazy, but I seem to remember your position on one man and his family driving somewhere during lockdown being 'robust'. I'd love to know your opinions on several hundred gathering at close quarters for a bit of horseplay and chucking stuff at the rozzers.
    If they're breaking the rules then the law should intervene as appropriate, obviously attacking the Police is unacceptable.

    I will support the right to protest in general and I wonder if you are going to use this to smear all protestors.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,979

    Barnesian said:

    glw said:

    Barnesian said:

    Ave_it said:

    I bet the R in London is about 4 now! 😠

    My latest calculation of R is up to last Thursday the 28th based on reported cases.

    England 0.61 (-0.03)
    London 0.58 (+0.01)
    Richmond had its first case yesterday in the last eight days.

    The impact of today won't be seen until about June 10th.





    I think your charts are useful, but can you do something about the dates on the X axis? You've obviously gone to a fair bit of effort as it is, it would be nice to more clearly see the date for each point on the line.





    Just because I'm curious rather than anything else...have you got anything that "benchmarks" your curves against anything from a government briefing or equivalent?

    e.g. CMO says on date X that regions Y's R value is estimated to be Z, and your graph's equivalent value is ??? Just for the additional context/interpretation
    No I haven't. I believe that the UK government is relying on data on deaths which is very out of date for an estimate of current infection rates i.e. current R. They don't explain their methodolgy so I can't benchmark.

    My methodology is similar to the German government methodology I believe. It is simple. I can do it for every region and every borough. I only do it for England and London because it is a fair amount of work extracting the data which can be found here.

    https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/


  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Good to see the three other officers have been charged with Aiding and Abetting a murder now. I've been calling for this all week and its belated but quite right that all 4 officers are now facing criminal charges.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842

    Barnesian said:

    glw said:

    Barnesian said:

    Ave_it said:

    I bet the R in London is about 4 now! 😠

    My latest calculation of R is up to last Thursday the 28th based on reported cases.

    England 0.61 (-0.03)
    London 0.58 (+0.01)
    Richmond had its first case yesterday in the last eight days.

    The impact of today won't be seen until about June 10th.





    I think your charts are useful, but can you do something about the dates on the X axis? You've obviously gone to a fair bit of effort as it is, it would be nice to more clearly see the date for each point on the line.





    Just because I'm curious rather than anything else...have you got anything that "benchmarks" your curves against anything from a government briefing or equivalent?

    e.g. CMO says on date X that regions Y's R value is estimated to be Z, and your graph's equivalent value is ??? Just for the additional context/interpretation
    government estimate is in some of their presentations - 0.7 - 0.9 was the last estimate but happy to be updated.
    London has a lower "R" (Well it did have) than rUK.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    Back on Priti Patel's leadership bid, er, quarantine. What were the penalties for breaking self isolation rules (with or without the virus)? They weren't £1000 were they? So why so harsh the second time around?

    I get that nobody wants a "second wave". But it's almost as if the first wave wasn't important! No wonder we ended up with so many deaths!
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    The World Health Organization (WHO) is resuming its trial of hydroxychloroquine as a potential treatment for coronavirus.
  • humbuggerhumbugger Posts: 377

    I think it will be a Hung Parliament.

    At the weekend you were calling it for Starmer. What's changed?
This discussion has been closed.