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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Trump 2024: the game’s changed and a third term is possible
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Trump 2024: the game’s changed and a third term is possible
Let’s get ahead of ourselves. I do not expect Donald Trump to win a second term and neither do punters betting hard cash. At the time of writing, he was just over 2.2 on Betfair to win November’s election and marginally odds against with traditional bookies. I think that’s still a bit short. Trump’s job approval figures have just dropped to a seven-month low (albeit within quite a small range), and Biden keeps pumping out solid leads in both national polls and those conducted in swing states.
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https://www.dailymail.co.uk/tvshowbiz/article-8393517/Kate-Garraway-says-husband-Derek-Draper-locked-coma-forever.html
Possible? Yes.
Likely? No.
It's currently 53-47. Alabama will go Red. So, let's make it 54-46.
Maine and Colorado are toast. 52-48.
So, I suspect, will Arizona, where Ms McSally is 13 points adrift in the latest Fox poll.
51-49.
Iowa. North Carolina. Georgia (times two).
Plus outside shots at Montana, South Carolina and maybe even Kentucky.
https://news.sky.com/story/joe-biden-formally-secures-democratic-presidential-nomination-12001449
Sigh. Was Joe really the best the Democrats could put up?
https://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/roy-moore-is-running-for-the-senate-again-and-alabama-republicans-are-not-happy
Edit. scrub that. Old news.
As far as Trump is concerned, I think the epidemic and the demonstrations have upset his plans. He was on track for a second win in November, and now it looks more difficult.
Utterly OT, but just discovered that Kingdoms of Amalur, an interesting looking RPG I just never got around to playing, is getting a remaster, due out in August.
Will almost certainly get that. Left it a bit late in the day with the next gen consoles coming at the end of the year, but still sounds good. And I've yet to do The Witcher 3 DLC...
As people get into their seventies, their personalities become more fixed, and get revealed under scrutiny. It is harder to dissemble. When in such a position Biden still has a folksy charm, Trump merely displays his malignant egotism.
Personally I think it's a bit far-fetched (I don't think Trump wants to do it forever and nor would be voted in to do so as president or vice president if he did) but it's a fascinating insight into the US Constitution.
Thank you.
If they tacitly look like they support using racism as a tool of anti-racism then that will fuel Trump.
25/1 at Coral
I just don't think America is on the cusp of dictatorship and even his own supporters would baulk at such a thing.
It would make a terrific novel though.
This link is worth reading, not just the first one. Across small town America, the Trumpian heartland there have been BLM demonstrations.
https://www.buzzfeednews.com/amphtml/annehelenpetersen/black-lives-matter-protests-near-me-small-towns?__twitter_impression=true
I don't think America wants four more years of Trumpian race war.
Assistant Chief Constable Kenny MacDonald said officers can show their support for the movement if it is “operationally appropriate”.
https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/scottish-news/police-scotland-officers-permitted-take-22145282.amp
Your views should be discounted accordingly.
Unmitigated nonsense.
This is the weakest Herdson conclusion I’ve ever read. I realise that header writers have to attract attention and push some buttons, but it is always best to avoid complete, unqualified piffle.
It's a power play that can embolden.
It didn't stop the violence against them a few hours later.
The Police showing respect to the protestors and joining in symbolically with the protest will soothe out most protests, even if not the criminal element who actively are seeking violence.
If the police want to join in with the protestors then they can quietly march with them.
David spends a lot of his own free personal time writing these articles for us.
You explicitly write that you do not think Event A will happen in one million years. But you then expect another poster to write a detailed post explaining exactly why Event A is so profoundly unlikely to happen.
If we’d been talking about an EVS probability, fair enough, but nobody in their right minds would waste even two minutes explaining why Layla Moran is not going to be the next prime minister of the United Kindom. And her odds are an extremely short (in the context of your “I don't think it will happen in a million years”) 125/1.
That's like saying if one person salutes you, then you salute back, you're in a racial power play.
He is the best header writer after Antifrank, and me.
Whoever wins this year will carry the can for any post CV19 economic mess and find it hard to win in 2024. If Biden winds, his presidency might resemble Carter. An interesting question is where do the GOP go after Trump. Is there Reagan out there? Because surely America needs a Reagan or an FDR to dig itself out of the abyss.
Layla Moran is the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom.
Setting up racism as a tool of anti-racism and getting whites to bend knees to blacks - together with all the law and order concerns - is precisely the sort of thing that will stir up Trump's base. All we need know is a leading Democrat to call those who baulk at that deplorable and we're there.
I'm interested in making money on this election so will continue to call it as I see it. It's not over yet and the campaign will be crucial.
The images have been of white police officers bending knees in front of black protestors, as well you know, and that is precisely the point of it
Your analogy would work if both sides were bending knees to each other but that's not what's happening here.
It's intended to perceptions of assumed racial hierarchies by inverting them.
I don't think that's constructive and risks reinforcing divides rather than breaking them down.
PM: clown
Home Sec: thick
Chancellor: wide boy
Foreign Sec: pile of jelly
Ch Duchy Lancaster: slimebag
Scottish Sec: purple-faced 19th tee resident
ad infinitum
You need to keep an eye on that book of yours. It’s hijacked your account again and is posting wishful thoughts.
Play nicely everyone.
Even with continued low interest rates, you’d be better tucking your cash in a savings account for 4 years.
The bended knee, as popularised by Colin Kopernick, was originated by a black man, in the presence of a predominantly white audience. It is not a symbol of dominance, but rather one of solidarity with the victims of police brutality, an undeniable reality for many black people.
I would much rather see a policeman kneel in recognition of the need to do more, than to kneel on a black man.
Policing in Britain is by consent, and police demonstrating that they are part of the community, not a force of occupation is fundamental to building that consent.
It is now 57 days since the coal fired power stations were switched off.
Given this is the best time of year for solar and probably wind as well, plus a collapse in the demand for power, my suspicion is that they will not be turned on again until October.
I wonder a bit actually whether they will ever be turned on again. Most of them were due to shut over the next two years anyway, and they’re not the sort of facility that takes kindly to being mothballed.
At the moment, on average gas is providing around a third of our electricity, renewables 28% and domestic nuclear 20%, the balance coming from biomass, hydro, France and pumped storage. THis has cut carbon dioxide emissions from around 452g/kWh in 2009 to just 146g/kWh on average now - it has dipped as low as 43g/kWh on some very sunny, windy days.
So, progress, with the usual caveats and reservations.
I know he's old, but in the US they don't seem to care much about that, and the idea that he's got dementia wouldn't set Trump up well for a debate since Biden has been practicing all year and can follow an argument and make coherent points, and Trump can't.
Affirmative action - no
Businesses campaigning alongside them - no
Taking a knee - no
Mass protests - no
Is there anything they could do to bring about change that would be acceptable beyond meekly asking?
I certainly agree on the coming campaign: Trump is going to try and hammer Biden over his health and frailty. That and China. It is going to the most brutal, dirty and depressing campaign in US history.
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1268996532906442754?s=20
If Trump is re elected he might try to continue in power on the bottom of a ticket headed by VP Pence in 2024 but I cannot see it winning, after 8 years of a Republican administration voters would almost certainly be looking for a change with a young, charismatic Democrat like Joe Kennedy III or Pete Buttigieg likely to be favourite to win
Joining in with kneeling is joining in with the symbolism, not reversing it.
If the Police kneel its them recognising that black lives matter, which shouldn't be a difficult thing for them to do.
With the subject matter being so grave, he can’t resort to this tactic. You can often see that he is restraining himself from making a quip.
This is leaving him severely hamstrung.
Or will he go it in low and dirty. " Donald - your twitter feed is public evidence of your fragile mental health. Everyone can see it. You are a clear and present danger."
But I think there are signs that Biden's team will campaign for the swing voters they've got instead of the swing voters they wish they had - a good example is this China ad:
https://www.businessinsider.com/joe-biden-ad-china-trump-coronavirus-racist-xenophobic-2020-4?op=1
Wind especially off shore wind is very cost effective and not just clean.
https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1269107210875031557?s=21
Hopefully enough will realise that it is him or the end of the Republic in any shape that is recognizable.
I'm not optimistic.
A friend of mine whose 10 year old son has terrible asthma, with multiple admissions each year reports that his chest is better than ever over the last 3 months. When I drive into Leicester, the clarity of the air is noticeable. The petrochemical smog is gone, for now at least.
Just look at the birther issue. They won't accept the evidence shown to them that Obama was born in the US. When the same nutty arguments they use to dismiss the evidence is put for therefore showing Trump might not be American then the response is 'Why would you say that?' and they have a puzzled look on their face.
Simply put Obama in Kenyan and Trump is American regardless of the evidence or lack of for either. Similarly Biden is senile and any evidence that Trump maybe a few sandwiches short of a picnic is inconceivable nonsense.
If David Cameron’s premiership was ultimately not a great success, he should certainly take satisfaction from the way his government oversaw so many changes to the energy mix that as recently as 2010 seemed utterly impossible.