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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Keiran Pedley’s Ipsos-MORI Podcast: How does Starmer make it t

SystemSystem Posts: 8,258
edited June 18 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Keiran Pedley’s Ipsos-MORI Podcast: How does Starmer make it to Number 10?

On the inaugural Ipsos MORI Politics & Society podcast, Keiran Pedley is joined by Ayesha Hazarika, Alastair Campbell and the Ipsos-MORI Chief Executive Ben Page to discuss historic poll ratings for the new Labour leader and where the Labour Party go from here after a historic defeat in December. You can listen to the podcast below:

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 14,157
    First.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 2,080
    Try Googlemaps...
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 2,392

    Try Googlemaps...

    As any cyclist will tell you, that's a great way to end up either in a bog or squashed under the wheels of an HGV.

    Meanwhile:

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 33,796
    FPT:

    Last I read there were discussions with Apple to let non-germans download it from the app store.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 59,930
    Eadric vs Rashford might be a better contest than Boris vs Starmer.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 4,885
    NHS England numbers out - https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

    All - 62
    Seven days - 54

    Looks like we are below 50 per day now

    imageimage
    image
    image
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 1,589
    RobD said:
    Typical semi-literate modern humanities grad who cannot even use an apostrophe properly.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 22,331
    (FPT)
    eadric said:

    Nigelb said:

    eadric said:

    So, yet another NHS IT disaster.

    When do they ever learn.

    This was so bloody obvious from the start. We all said it, we all knew it.

    Yet again, the country would have been better off governed by me, doing half an hour a day, during my first gin and T, than by this shower of imbeciles

    Scarily, that might even be true.
    Though probably not.
    It is precisely true. I'd have locked us down in late Feb, quarantined all arrivals, stopped flights from all the hotspots, stockpiled masks/face coverings and made them mandatory from the off.

    We'd have a death toll like Germany's and we would now be eating in restaurants again.
    That is to assume - against all the evidence - that power would not have changed you... :smile:
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 33,796
    The app disaster is another example of the 'not invented here' mentality.

    No doubt we will see a lot more as Brexit takes hold.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 10,623
    eadric said:

    The UltraWoke are coming for Nye Bevin now




    The WokeMania will end like all revolutions: when the revolution devours its own children and the cadres turn on each other, and all are destroyed. Just a question of how long.

    It is already happening in the TERF-trans war.
    Ernest, not Nye, Bevin.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 5,541
    FPT
    justin124 said:

    Carnyx said:

    justin124 said:

    DavidL said:

    justin124 said:

    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    Universities need to act now on free speech on the campus, or the baleful eye of Cummings and the need for 'sector reorganization' will fall on them.

    They actually have bigger problems, certainly in Scotland where the Universities are facing a complete shit storm.

    The Scottish government gives £1820 per student with a set number of places. This of course is absolutely unsustainable for anything other than the most basic of institutions so Universities have sought English students (£9250 a pop) and foreign non EU students (up to £24K) to cross subsidise. The Russell group members in particular have been very successful at this allowing the Universities to thrive with an ever smaller part of their cohort being made up of Scottish students.

    Boris has now capped the number of English grants that will be paid to Scottish Universities and the foreigners are not coming because of Covid. The Scottish Government is not able to increase the number of places it funds because it has no money. I am not sure whether the likes of Edinburgh, St Andrews and Glasgow will survive. It really depends on how long the foreign market takes to recover but the clock is ticking

    .
    Edinburgh, St Andrews and Glasgow will survive if the become pro-Scottish. If they don’t, they won’t.

    That is the inevitable consequence of being national institutions funded by the taxpayer. Either you work in the broad interests of the nation or else you try your luck in the free market.
    Those 3 are the only world class universities Scotland has, lose those, lose world class higher education in Scotland
    Says Rupert Murdoch.

    The rest of the planet does not see the world through those London-tinted spectacles that so distort your vision.
    Only 2 Scottish universities in the global top 100, Edinburgh and Glasgow.

    Edinburgh the only Scottish university in the top 50
    https://www.timeshighereducation.com/world-university-rankings/2020/world-ranking#!/page/4/length/25/sort_by/rank/sort_order/asc/cols/stats
    In fairness that is as many in the top 50 as the entire EU. It's almost as if there was a link between adequately funding Universities and their performance, isn't it?
    I may be wrong about this , but do get the impression that league tables re-standing of Universities are largely based on the breadth and depth of the research facilities provided for postgraduate work. Do they really convey much at all in respect of first degrees - BA and Bsc courses?
    I think it does but you can argue about the weighting. Suppose you are studying physics and you have the choice of learning in a cutting edge laboratory with people testing the boundaries of knowledge in that subject and willing to let you play even a small part or learning the same stuff that has been churned out in a school like manner for you to learn and repeat on demand: which is going to make you a better physicist?

    I think that the answer is obvious in that example but I would accept that there are many other potential examples which might not be so clear cut. What I think is clear is the University is or should be the equivalent of the mediaeval monastery, a combination of a place which does practical things like teach people how to read and also a place of scholarship and learning.

    The fact that we have 4 Universities ranked in the top 10 in the world is undoubtedly one of our greatest strengths and we need to give urgent though as to how we avoid losing it.
    I would agree with that , but not really so sure that a student attending Medical School at - say - Leeds or London Universities is likely to emerge having less to offer the world than someone from Oxbridge. That is probably even more true of the Humanities and Social Sciences - English,History, Politics, Philosophy , Law etc.
    Medical school is arguably a poor example as the students have to move around between hospitals, so the training is arguably more homogenised. But in any case I'm not sure how much medical undergrads get to see in the way of research, these days, compared to say zoologists or biochemists who often end up doing actual research projects and special essay topics. The special essay I did ended up determining my entire career as a researcher (in part). And there seems to be even more emphasis on actual research projects as well as science communication, literacy, etc., these days in the fields in which I am familiar.

    The other thing I am uneasy about is the merger of the polytechnics and universities. The polys did excellent work in their realm and it seemed a shame to lose them into the university mould. Edit: I'm not sure how such league tablkes take that loss into account.
    Research work though generally relates to postgraduate work - MA-Msc - Phd etc. I was mainly questioning the relevance of university rankings to undergraduate courses.
    FPT: Oh, quite: but, for undergraduates, BSc/BA (and, strictly speaking, also MA in Scotland, unless that has changed), being able to take part in research, even on a small taster level, is a very important attraction for at least the more able students (who are included in the people one wants to come to one's universities).
  • RobDRobD Posts: 47,162

    The app disaster is another example of the 'not invented here' mentality.

    No doubt we will see a lot more as Brexit takes hold.

    The silver lining is that it surely won't be delayed until winter.
  • SurreySurrey Posts: 190
    eadric said:

    The UltraWoke are coming for Nye Bevin now


    For Ernest Bevin, not for Nye Bevan.

  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 4,885

    The app disaster is another example of the 'not invented here' mentality.

    No doubt we will see a lot more as Brexit takes hold.

    You are ignoring the long tradition of the the "Unique British Requirements" mentality in Whitehall.

    Hence tanks with rifled guns and British radar manufacturers still trying to push the twin-radar-aew design.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 31,378

    eadric said:

    The UltraWoke are coming for Nye Bevin now




    The WokeMania will end like all revolutions: when the revolution devours its own children and the cadres turn on each other, and all are destroyed. Just a question of how long.

    It is already happening in the TERF-trans war.
    Ernest, not Nye, Bevin.
    And wasn't he Bevan, not Begin.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 26,616

    Try Googlemaps...

    As any cyclist will tell you, that's a great way to end up either in a bog or squashed under the wheels of an HGV.

    Meanwhile:

    Ha, don't say we didn't tell you so! :D
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 59,930
    RobD said:

    The app disaster is another example of the 'not invented here' mentality.

    No doubt we will see a lot more as Brexit takes hold.

    The silver lining is that it surely won't be delayed until winter.
    I don't think the app can be released as it is in Germany, that'd be a disaster don't you know !
    Whitehall will surely goldplate it first ;)
    And good goldplating can't be done in a rush.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 5,801

    The app disaster is another example of the 'not invented here' mentality.

    No doubt we will see a lot more as Brexit takes hold.

    I'm so disappointment with Dom over this app fiasco. I thought his raison d'être was to sweep away all the failed governmental processes of the past and replace them with something radical, working and new. What have we had so far? Returning the DfID to how it was in John Major's time and before. Terrific. I'm not impressed.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 2,632
    eadric said:

    Surrey said:

    eadric said:

    The UltraWoke are coming for Nye Bevin now


    For Ernest Bevin, not for Nye Bevan.

    Aren't they the same?!

    That's very confusing
    Maybe they were the same person but posted on PB under different pseudonyms.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 31,176
    I think that the short answer is that he probably doesn't. He is further behind than the Tories were after 2005 (167:157) and swings of that magnitude are rare indeed. We do not live in normal times of course and it is possible that elections will be more volatile than normal but the higher probability is that there will be a much reduced Tory majority in 2024 and a change of power the election after. He might get a second go a la Corbyn but I don't think that he has anything like the support base in the party that Corbyn had.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 969
    eadric said:

    The UltraWoke are coming for Nye Bevin now




    The WokeMania will end like all revolutions: when the revolution devours its own children and the cadres turn on each other, and all are destroyed. Just a question of how long.

    It is already happening in the TERF-trans war.
    It was Nye Bevan and Ernest Bevin. Incredibly easy to get the two mixed up.

    The former set up the health service, the latter was foreign sec.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 3,286
    RobD said:

    The app disaster is another example of the 'not invented here' mentality.

    No doubt we will see a lot more as Brexit takes hold.

    The silver lining is that it surely won't be delayed until winter.
    The real silver lining would be that it would not be needed by this winter ;)
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 7,128
    LOL Trump retweeted. John Bolton is "A notoriously mendacious enemy of all living beings on the planet."
    It's what he would want on his epitaph.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 1,148
    FPT
    Dura_Ace said:

    I think the Reds and the Patrouille should do an 8 vs 8 furball over London rather than a fly over. The Hawk has the throttle response of a lawnmower but the Alpha will depart to a spin without great provocation so it would be a square go.

    Is it possible to do paintball in fighter jets?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 26,616
    eadric said:
    Only after many of us on here, including @eek and myself (who both work with software) had done the same.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 3,643
    rcs1000 said:

    eadric said:

    The UltraWoke are coming for Nye Bevin now




    The WokeMania will end like all revolutions: when the revolution devours its own children and the cadres turn on each other, and all are destroyed. Just a question of how long.

    It is already happening in the TERF-trans war.
    Ernest, not Nye, Bevin.
    And wasn't he Bevan, not Begin.
    Bevan, Bevin, Begin-a-gain?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 11,754

    eadric said:

    The UltraWoke are coming for Nye Bevin now




    The WokeMania will end like all revolutions: when the revolution devours its own children and the cadres turn on each other, and all are destroyed. Just a question of how long.

    It is already happening in the TERF-trans war.
    Ernest, not Nye, Bevin.
    Nye Bevan even.

    Are all left-of-centre Welshmen the same to the racist hard right?
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 3,286
    DavidL said:

    I think that the short answer is that he probably doesn't. He is further behind than the Tories were after 2005 (167:157) and swings of that magnitude are rare indeed. We do not live in normal times of course and it is possible that elections will be more volatile than normal but the higher probability is that there will be a much reduced Tory majority in 2024 and a change of power the election after. He might get a second go a la Corbyn but I don't think that he has anything like the support base in the party that Corbyn had.

    How healthy are the Tories these days? Back in the day, they tended to be elderly and many a by-election was caused by the sitting Tory popping his clogs. The Labour MPs always seemed to have a younger age profile for some reason and it was usually a money scandal that would bring them low....

    I am not looking to it as a solution, just commenting that it used to be a feature of politics.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 7,128
    Scott_xP said:
    You missed the "in South Korea and New Zealand" off the end of that quote.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 2,632
    eadric said:

    Fishing said:

    eadric said:

    The UltraWoke are coming for Nye Bevin now




    The WokeMania will end like all revolutions: when the revolution devours its own children and the cadres turn on each other, and all are destroyed. Just a question of how long.

    It is already happening in the TERF-trans war.
    It was Nye Bevan and Ernest Bevin. Incredibly easy to get the two mixed up.

    The former set up the health service, the latter was foreign sec.
    Confession: all my long life I've thought they were the same person, I thought "Nye" was a diminutive form of Ernest, and I just didn't notice the different 2nd vowel in the surname.

    How odd. One of those blind spots.
    Strange, with your obviously compendious knowledge of the Labour movement.
    We all have our blind spots. For the longest time I thought that Boris Johnson wasn't a fat cowardly lying sack of shit. Still, you live and learn.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 26,616

    FPT

    Dura_Ace said:

    I think the Reds and the Patrouille should do an 8 vs 8 furball over London rather than a fly over. The Hawk has the throttle response of a lawnmower but the Alpha will depart to a spin without great provocation so it would be a square go.

    Is it possible to do paintball in fighter jets?
    Not over central London it isn't! The only spinning we want to see is from the politicians, not from aeroplanes - there's bloody good reasons they do flypasts and not displays over cities!

    Now, should we have them do some colourful dogfighting over East Anglia, that's a very different question!
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 3,286
    eadric said:

    Fishing said:

    eadric said:

    The UltraWoke are coming for Nye Bevin now




    The WokeMania will end like all revolutions: when the revolution devours its own children and the cadres turn on each other, and all are destroyed. Just a question of how long.

    It is already happening in the TERF-trans war.
    It was Nye Bevan and Ernest Bevin. Incredibly easy to get the two mixed up.

    The former set up the health service, the latter was foreign sec.
    Confession: all my long life I've thought they were the same person, I thought "Nye" was a diminutive form of Ernest, and I just didn't notice the different 2nd vowel in the surname.

    How odd. One of those blind spots.
    I knew they were different, but I thought they were brothers or cousins...
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 11,754
    Fishing said:

    eadric said:

    The UltraWoke are coming for Nye Bevin now




    The WokeMania will end like all revolutions: when the revolution devours its own children and the cadres turn on each other, and all are destroyed. Just a question of how long.

    It is already happening in the TERF-trans war.
    It was Nye Bevan and Ernest Bevin. Incredibly easy to get the two mixed up.

    The former set up the health service, the latter was foreign sec.
    I never get them mixed up. But, yes, I guess it's not impossible to.

    Both giants of Labour.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 7,128

    DavidL said:

    I think that the short answer is that he probably doesn't. He is further behind than the Tories were after 2005 (167:157) and swings of that magnitude are rare indeed. We do not live in normal times of course and it is possible that elections will be more volatile than normal but the higher probability is that there will be a much reduced Tory majority in 2024 and a change of power the election after. He might get a second go a la Corbyn but I don't think that he has anything like the support base in the party that Corbyn had.

    How healthy are the Tories these days? Back in the day, they tended to be elderly and many a by-election was caused by the sitting Tory popping his clogs. The Labour MPs always seemed to have a younger age profile for some reason and it was usually a money scandal that would bring them low....

    I am not looking to it as a solution, just commenting that it used to be a feature of politics.
    I know what you mean. I think they suffered a metaphorical cull of a generation in 1997. And Cameron did encourage younger candidates.
    Labour seem more aged now
  • SurreySurrey Posts: 190
    edited June 18
    BBC piece. The juiciest bits in the Bolton book may be

    * China (Trump sought help for re-election; backed Uighur camps);
    * Turkey-Iran (offered to help Erdogan in US investigation into possible breach of Iran sanctions);
    * NATO (wanted to withdraw).
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 73,082
    edited June 18
    How does Starmer make it to Number 10? Probably propped up by the LDs and SNP.

    To win a majority he would need to gain over 100 seats, more than any opposition leader since Blair in 1997 has achieved
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 31,176
    eadric said:

    Sandpit said:

    eadric said:
    Only after many of us on here, including @eek and myself (who both work with software) had done the same.
    Of course. TBH I think anyone with an IQ over 50 could see this was gonna be a total disaster. Just use Google/Apple, this is what they do, and what they do brilliantly. We all have Apple or Android phones. FFS.

    Of all the government's many cock-ups, this is potentially the most embarrassing and depressing, because it is so utterly crass, childish and predictable.
    Unfortunately it only seems to be a part of the disaster of trace and test. We really seem to be struggling to get the more mundane manual system in place too.
    I remember linking to SK's websites in February showing the journeys taken by those found to have been infected with times and modes of transport so that people could work out if they had been exposed. All of that was done using phone data. It is just unbelievable that in mid June we are nowhere near achieving something similar.

    Did no one apply their minds to the question of what was going to be needed to get out of lockdown relatively safely before we went into it? It's just depressing.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 1,148
    eadric said:

    In future we should just select our government by randomly choosing 20 British citizens, who would form a Cabinet, and who would do thirty minutes work a week, making the major decisions.

    The trivial boring tasks would then be delegated to the professional politicians, who evidently cannot be trusted with anything more important.

    In all seriousness the idea of using the jury system in some way within the political system is long overdue.

    Ireland has had some success with citizens assemblies, and I think the House of Lords could be replaced by the House of Random People.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 73,082
    edited June 18
    DavidL said:

    I think that the short answer is that he probably doesn't. He is further behind than the Tories were after 2005 (167:157) and swings of that magnitude are rare indeed. We do not live in normal times of course and it is possible that elections will be more volatile than normal but the higher probability is that there will be a much reduced Tory majority in 2024 and a change of power the election after. He might get a second go a la Corbyn but I don't think that he has anything like the support base in the party that Corbyn had.

    Yes, the next general election will likely either see the Tories win with a narrow majority under Boris or Sunak a la 1992 or a hung parliament a la 2010 only this time with Labour largest party and doing a deal with the LDs rather than the Tories
  • FishingFishing Posts: 969
    eadric said:

    Fishing said:

    eadric said:

    The UltraWoke are coming for Nye Bevin now




    The WokeMania will end like all revolutions: when the revolution devours its own children and the cadres turn on each other, and all are destroyed. Just a question of how long.

    It is already happening in the TERF-trans war.
    It was Nye Bevan and Ernest Bevin. Incredibly easy to get the two mixed up.

    The former set up the health service, the latter was foreign sec.
    Confession: all my long life I've thought they were the same person, I thought "Nye" was a diminutive form of Ernest, and I just didn't notice the different 2nd vowel in the surname.

    How odd. One of those blind spots.
    I'll let you into a secret. I checked wikipedia while writing my post just to make sure ...
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 26,616
    edited June 18
    eadric said:

    Sandpit said:

    eadric said:
    Only after many of us on here, including @eek and myself (who both work with software) had done the same.
    Of course. TBH I think anyone with an IQ over 50 could see this was gonna be a total disaster. Just use Google/Apple, this is what they do, and what they do brilliantly. We all have Apple or Android phones. FFS.

    Of all the government's many cock-ups, this is potentially the most embarrassing and depressing, because it is so utterly crass, childish and predictable.
    Actually no, it wasn't particularly obvious to anyone who didn't understand the technology closely - and it was quite probable that a bunch of yes-menpeople told the minister that of course they could do it, then went away and tried without realising the issue, and didn't dare go back and admit it couldn't be done.

    But yes, I've been one to give governments the benefit of the doubt for the events of the past few months - but this is a complete and unavoidable screw-up by NHSX.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 33,017
    edited June 18
    kinabalu said:

    eadric said:

    The UltraWoke are coming for Nye Bevin now




    The WokeMania will end like all revolutions: when the revolution devours its own children and the cadres turn on each other, and all are destroyed. Just a question of how long.

    It is already happening in the TERF-trans war.
    Ernest, not Nye, Bevin.
    Nye Bevan even.

    Are all left-of-centre Welshmen the same to the racist hard right?
    Ernest Bevin was English.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 46,935
    edited June 18
    eadric said:

    Sandpit said:

    eadric said:
    Only after many of us on here, including @eek and myself (who both work with software) had done the same.
    Of course. TBH I think anyone with an IQ over 50 could see this was gonna be a total disaster. Just use Google/Apple, this is what they do, and what they do brilliantly. We all have Apple or Android phones. FFS.

    Of all the government's many cock-ups, this is potentially the most embarrassing and depressing, because it is so utterly crass, childish and predictable.
    Things like PPE and the antibody tests issues, those I think the government can be excused some what, everybody has been short of PPE at some point, even the Germans. And the buying antibody tests that didn't work, i think was a risk worth taking.

    However, the app, FFS, absolutely no excuse. None. Nadda... Governments and IT always end in disaster. The two companies with the best software engineers and who write the OS that the app will run on have done all the heavy lifting and we say nah its ok, we have a better idea. Just nuts.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 3,843

    eadric said:

    In future we should just select our government by randomly choosing 20 British citizens, who would form a Cabinet, and who would do thirty minutes work a week, making the major decisions.

    The trivial boring tasks would then be delegated to the professional politicians, who evidently cannot be trusted with anything more important.

    In all seriousness the idea of using the jury system in some way within the political system is long overdue.

    Ireland has had some success with citizens assemblies, and I think the House of Lords could be replaced by the House of Random People.
    What if these random types were wrong-'uns, e.g. alea-tories.

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 31,176

    DavidL said:

    I think that the short answer is that he probably doesn't. He is further behind than the Tories were after 2005 (167:157) and swings of that magnitude are rare indeed. We do not live in normal times of course and it is possible that elections will be more volatile than normal but the higher probability is that there will be a much reduced Tory majority in 2024 and a change of power the election after. He might get a second go a la Corbyn but I don't think that he has anything like the support base in the party that Corbyn had.

    How healthy are the Tories these days? Back in the day, they tended to be elderly and many a by-election was caused by the sitting Tory popping his clogs. The Labour MPs always seemed to have a younger age profile for some reason and it was usually a money scandal that would bring them low....

    I am not looking to it as a solution, just commenting that it used to be a feature of politics.
    I can't find statistics post the 2019 election but my impression is that a lot of the older members were cleared out at the last election and it would not surprise me if the Commons was younger than it was. I think Labour still have a large tranche of MPs from the Blair/Brown years who have had long careers now. I would be surprised if the Tories were significantly older.

    You are right that by elections seem to have become much less frequent.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 7,128
    dixiedean said:

    DavidL said:

    I think that the short answer is that he probably doesn't. He is further behind than the Tories were after 2005 (167:157) and swings of that magnitude are rare indeed. We do not live in normal times of course and it is possible that elections will be more volatile than normal but the higher probability is that there will be a much reduced Tory majority in 2024 and a change of power the election after. He might get a second go a la Corbyn but I don't think that he has anything like the support base in the party that Corbyn had.

    How healthy are the Tories these days? Back in the day, they tended to be elderly and many a by-election was caused by the sitting Tory popping his clogs. The Labour MPs always seemed to have a younger age profile for some reason and it was usually a money scandal that would bring them low....

    I am not looking to it as a solution, just commenting that it used to be a feature of politics.
    I know what you mean. I think they suffered a metaphorical cull of a generation in 1997. And Cameron did encourage younger candidates.
    Labour seem more aged now
    Mmm. Seems like my turn to take a knee.
    There are 31 MPs in HofC continuously elected before 97. 18 Tories and 13 Labour. That isn't the impression I got.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 59,930
    HYUFD said:

    How does Starmer make it to Number 10? Probably propped up by the LDs and SNP.

    To win a majority he would need to gain over 100 seats, more than any opposition leader since Blair in 1997 has achieved

    Well the first Cameron ministry was propped up by the Lib Dems so no reason a Starmer ministry couldn't be similiarly propped up by smaller parties.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 11,754
    edited June 18
    HYUFD said:

    How does Starmer make it to Number 10? Probably propped up by the LDs and SNP.

    To win a majority he would need to gain over 100 seats, more than any opposition leader since Blair in 1997 has achieved

    These are very unusual times, though, do you not feel that? I definitely do. Indeed a Labour overall majority at the next GE is now SHORTER than a Conservative majority. 3.15 vs 3.25.

    That's amazing, really, when you think about it. 80 seat landslide won just 7 months ago. Must be a lay, logically, but something stops me doing that.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 26,616
    eadric said:

    Sandpit said:

    eadric said:

    Sandpit said:

    eadric said:
    Only after many of us on here, including @eek and myself (who both work with software) had done the same.
    Of course. TBH I think anyone with an IQ over 50 could see this was gonna be a total disaster. Just use Google/Apple, this is what they do, and what they do brilliantly. We all have Apple or Android phones. FFS.

    Of all the government's many cock-ups, this is potentially the most embarrassing and depressing, because it is so utterly crass, childish and predictable.
    Actually no, it wasn't particularly obvious to anyone who didn't understand the technology closely - and it was quite probable that a bunch of yes-menpeople told the minister that of course they could do it, then went away and tried without realising the issue, and didn't dare go back and admit it couldn't be done.

    But yes, I've been one to give governments the benefit of the doubt for the events of the past few months - but this is a complete and unavoidable screw-up.
    i think it was obvious even to non-techies, because other countries - handling corona better than us - were already going down the Google/Apple road, and, also, it just seems intuitive. We're going to be using smartphone tech to do this: so get Google and Apple to do it, as they design the smartphones and they understand how the Op Systems work

    Common sense
    A surprising number of other Western countries did go down a similar road before all turning round. The final version of the A/G software was only released a week or two ago, so something ready before then would have been better (if it had worked).

    The places that did make apps work, did so by forcing location data and making the apps compulsory. Not something that can work in Western democracies. I think a lot of governments thought they could get away with it, didn't expect a massive backlash from the tech and privacy communities!
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,028
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/18/uk-poised-to-abandon-coronavirus-app-in-favour-of-apple-and-google-models

    The UK is poised to announce it has abandoned its attempt to built a centralised coronavirus contact-tracing app and will instead switch to the model preferred by the technology firms Apple and Google.

    The embarrassing U-turn comes after British officials concluded it was technically impossible to create an effective app that does not conform to the Google and Apple model
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 46,935
    Its a bloody good job covid seems to be on the way out for the moment. Imagine if it was still at much higher levels we would be stuck in our homes for another 3 months while they fixed the app...and then winter would be just around the corner and covid will be more than likely back with a bang and back to lockdown.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 5,456
    Looking at the previous thread, I wonder how long we need wait before an exposé of the chaotic and incompetent No 10 under Boris Johnson? It is certain. Johnson is simply the British Trump; the most inappropriate man to hold that office in modern history.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 18,829
    eadric said:

    kinabalu said:

    eadric said:

    The UltraWoke are coming for Nye Bevin now




    The WokeMania will end like all revolutions: when the revolution devours its own children and the cadres turn on each other, and all are destroyed. Just a question of how long.

    It is already happening in the TERF-trans war.
    Ernest, not Nye, Bevin.
    Nye Bevan even.

    Are all left-of-centre Welshmen the same to the racist hard right?
    I am rarely moved to be very rude to people here (or anywhere else, but I would have thought people who commented on a politics site would have known the names of two giants of the 1945 Labour Government.
    Aneurin (Nye) Bevan was a former miner, who, having left school at 13 to go down the pit educated himself and worked his way up through the South Wales Miners Federation to become the Minister of Health who brought in the NHS.
    Ernie Bevin was a West Country man, again a 13yrs old school leaver who came up through the Transport Workers Union and became Minister of Labour during the War, subsequently Foreign Secretary.
    Well, Kinabalu, like the bigot he is, thought Ernie Bevin was Welsh
    I read Nye Bevan's autobiography many years ago. I remember little of it, apart from how he regretted his lack of education when dealing with coal-owners reps. He wrote about discussions outside the meetings, where more general matters were discussed and how they kept 'walking beyond the frontiers of his knowledge., because of the literature they could quote and refer to.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 11,754
    eadric said:

    kinabalu said:

    eadric said:

    The UltraWoke are coming for Nye Bevin now




    The WokeMania will end like all revolutions: when the revolution devours its own children and the cadres turn on each other, and all are destroyed. Just a question of how long.

    It is already happening in the TERF-trans war.
    Ernest, not Nye, Bevin.
    Nye Bevan even.

    Are all left-of-centre Welshmen the same to the racist hard right?
    I am rarely moved to be very rude to people here (or anywhere else, but I would have thought people who commented on a politics site would have known the names of two giants of the 1945 Labour Government.
    Aneurin (Nye) Bevan was a former miner, who, having left school at 13 to go down the pit educated himself and worked his way up through the South Wales Miners Federation to become the Minister of Health who brought in the NHS.
    Ernie Bevin was a West Country man, again a 13yrs old school leaver who came up through the Transport Workers Union and became Minister of Labour during the War, subsequently Foreign Secretary.
    Well, Kinabalu, like the bigot he is, thought Ernie Bevin was Welsh
    :smile:

    Fair cop.

    I hang my head and slink away. To return (I hope) a new and improved man.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 1,148
    geoffw said:

    eadric said:

    In future we should just select our government by randomly choosing 20 British citizens, who would form a Cabinet, and who would do thirty minutes work a week, making the major decisions.

    The trivial boring tasks would then be delegated to the professional politicians, who evidently cannot be trusted with anything more important.

    In all seriousness the idea of using the jury system in some way within the political system is long overdue.

    Ireland has had some success with citizens assemblies, and I think the House of Lords could be replaced by the House of Random People.
    What if these random types were wrong-'uns, e.g. alea-tories.
    In a group of 500, chosen at random, you would expect a small number of fruitcakes, loonies and open racists, but I'd trust the majority to listen to reason.

    The only logical alternative to trusting the majority via some form of democracy is to seek to set oneself up as dictator.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 46,935
    We are just have to hope that second rate institution comes up with the goods again in time for the winter !!!
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 5,456
    Pulpstar said:

    HYUFD said:

    How does Starmer make it to Number 10? Probably propped up by the LDs and SNP.

    To win a majority he would need to gain over 100 seats, more than any opposition leader since Blair in 1997 has achieved

    Well the first Cameron ministry was propped up by the Lib Dems so no reason a Starmer ministry couldn't be similiarly propped up by smaller parties.
    It is quite likely. The LDs tend to do better when Labour is seen as less of a threat to the middle ground, hence their success at the same time as Blair. People seem happier to vote LD if they can't quite bring themselves to vote Labour, but it rarely happens in the other direction. Johnson has 4 more years to really show how someone who is out of his depth can really fuck the Tories' chance of re-election, so I wouldn't make it improbable that Starmer plays it nice and safe and still has an historic victory. .
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 5,801

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/18/uk-poised-to-abandon-coronavirus-app-in-favour-of-apple-and-google-models

    The UK is poised to announce it has abandoned its attempt to built a centralised coronavirus contact-tracing app and will instead switch to the model preferred by the technology firms Apple and Google.

    The embarrassing U-turn comes after British officials concluded it was technically impossible to create an effective app that does not conform to the Google and Apple model

    I'm struggling to fathom what that last sentence can actually mean.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 47,162

    We are just have to hope that second rate institution comes up with the goods again in time for the winter !!!

    They didn't do too badly with the treatment earlier this week. ;)
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 31,176
    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    I think that the short answer is that he probably doesn't. He is further behind than the Tories were after 2005 (167:157) and swings of that magnitude are rare indeed. We do not live in normal times of course and it is possible that elections will be more volatile than normal but the higher probability is that there will be a much reduced Tory majority in 2024 and a change of power the election after. He might get a second go a la Corbyn but I don't think that he has anything like the support base in the party that Corbyn had.

    Yes, the next general election will likely either see the Tories win with a narrow majority under Boris or Sunak a la 1992 or a hung parliament a la 2010 only this time with Labour largest party and doing a deal with the LDs rather than the Tories
    Even to get largest party Labour would need to win 84 seats directly from the Tories or rely upon them losing seats to others. That means Labour winning seats up to Ashfield requiring a 5.85% swing: http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/defence/
    I mean, its not impossible but its not likely.

    Corbyn really screwed the pooch for Labour.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 47,162

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/18/uk-poised-to-abandon-coronavirus-app-in-favour-of-apple-and-google-models

    The UK is poised to announce it has abandoned its attempt to built a centralised coronavirus contact-tracing app and will instead switch to the model preferred by the technology firms Apple and Google.

    The embarrassing U-turn comes after British officials concluded it was technically impossible to create an effective app that does not conform to the Google and Apple model

    I'm struggling to fathom what that last sentence can actually mean.
    They wanted a centralised system, but they have concluded that is not possible to make one effectively. At least that is how I read it.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 46,935
    RobD said:

    We are just have to hope that second rate institution comes up with the goods again in time for the winter !!!

    They didn't do too badly with the treatment earlier this week. ;)
    Just got lucky i expect...i mean other than that, what have they ever come up with.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 47,162

    RobD said:

    We are just have to hope that second rate institution comes up with the goods again in time for the winter !!!

    They didn't do too badly with the treatment earlier this week. ;)
    Just got lucky i expect...i mean other than that, what have they ever come up with.
    :D
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 11,754

    kinabalu said:

    eadric said:

    The UltraWoke are coming for Nye Bevin now




    The WokeMania will end like all revolutions: when the revolution devours its own children and the cadres turn on each other, and all are destroyed. Just a question of how long.

    It is already happening in the TERF-trans war.
    Ernest, not Nye, Bevin.
    Nye Bevan even.

    Are all left-of-centre Welshmen the same to the racist hard right?
    I am rarely moved to be very rude to people here (or anywhere else, but I would have thought people who commented on a politics site would have known the names of two giants of the 1945 Labour Government.
    Aneurin (Nye) Bevan was a former miner, who, having left school at 13 to go down the pit, educated himself and worked his way up through the South Wales Miners Federation to become the Minister of Health who brought in the NHS.
    Ernie Bevin was a West Country man, again a 13yrs old school leaver who came up through the Transport Workers Union and became Minister of Labour during the War, subsequently Foreign Secretary.
    Exactly. I was downright shocked and was seeking to say so in a rather acidic and cutting way. But I blew myself up with the "Welshmen" typo. I mean, it WAS a typo (obvs), but that is by the by.

    We move on.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 26,616
    edited June 18

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/18/uk-poised-to-abandon-coronavirus-app-in-favour-of-apple-and-google-models

    The UK is poised to announce it has abandoned its attempt to built a centralised coronavirus contact-tracing app and will instead switch to the model preferred by the technology firms Apple and Google.

    The embarrassing U-turn comes after British officials concluded it was technically impossible to create an effective app that does not conform to the Google and Apple model

    I'm struggling to fathom what that last sentence can actually mean.
    It means that the A/G solution relies on low-level access to devices which 3rd party software usually cannot access, and that this access is essential for a contact tracing application that meets the requirement of recording interactions between otherwise inactive devices.

    The A/G solution is the *only* way it's possible to get it to work, any other method simply can't work. (unless you make a battery-killing location aware app that's illegal not to use, as they do in China).
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 5,456

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/18/uk-poised-to-abandon-coronavirus-app-in-favour-of-apple-and-google-models

    The UK is poised to announce it has abandoned its attempt to built a centralised coronavirus contact-tracing app and will instead switch to the model preferred by the technology firms Apple and Google.

    The embarrassing U-turn comes after British officials concluded it was technically impossible to create an effective app that does not conform to the Google and Apple model

    The incompetence of Boris Johnson's government is becoming sadly predictable. As I mentioned a few weeks ago the appointment of Baroness Dildo Harding was another "let's award one our chums" appointments that has become typical of this Brixit Party Lite Government, where the emphasis is always on the "Lite"
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 4,885
    edited June 18
    RobD said:

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/18/uk-poised-to-abandon-coronavirus-app-in-favour-of-apple-and-google-models

    The UK is poised to announce it has abandoned its attempt to built a centralised coronavirus contact-tracing app and will instead switch to the model preferred by the technology firms Apple and Google.

    The embarrassing U-turn comes after British officials concluded it was technically impossible to create an effective app that does not conform to the Google and Apple model

    I'm struggling to fathom what that last sentence can actually mean.
    They wanted a centralised system, but they have concluded that is not possible to make one effectively. At least that is how I read it.
    The key thing here is that someone had a requirement to centralise and control the data.

    This kind of data hoarding is common in government IT projects.

    For example, the late, un-lamented UK ID card project had a flock of databases associated with it that added up to gigantic privacy problem. So much so, that "important" people would have had their data specially segregated.

    Another perennial problem in government projects is requirements. Adding requirements without any estimation of cost/benefit is standard. Removing requirements is often impossible.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 31,176

    Its a bloody good job covid seems to be on the way out for the moment. Imagine if it was still at much higher levels we would be stuck in our homes for another 3 months while they fixed the app...and then winter would be just around the corner and covid will be more than likely back with a bang and back to lockdown.

    We may well have a trace and track system in place for the last few cases in the UK. And then, no doubt, a huge bureaucracy that will live on at great cost for years.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 73,082
    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    I think that the short answer is that he probably doesn't. He is further behind than the Tories were after 2005 (167:157) and swings of that magnitude are rare indeed. We do not live in normal times of course and it is possible that elections will be more volatile than normal but the higher probability is that there will be a much reduced Tory majority in 2024 and a change of power the election after. He might get a second go a la Corbyn but I don't think that he has anything like the support base in the party that Corbyn had.

    Yes, the next general election will likely either see the Tories win with a narrow majority under Boris or Sunak a la 1992 or a hung parliament a la 2010 only this time with Labour largest party and doing a deal with the LDs rather than the Tories
    Even to get largest party Labour would need to win 84 seats directly from the Tories or rely upon them losing seats to others. That means Labour winning seats up to Ashfield requiring a 5.85% swing: http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/defence/
    I mean, its not impossible but its not likely.

    Corbyn really screwed the pooch for Labour.
    Yes, though of course Labour only really needs to get to about 270 seats to do a deal with the SNP and LDs to make Starmer PM even if the Tories are still largest party.

    Labour would need even fewer than that if the LDs pick up more Tory seats in London and the South
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 2,632
    kinabalu said:

    eadric said:

    kinabalu said:

    eadric said:

    The UltraWoke are coming for Nye Bevin now




    The WokeMania will end like all revolutions: when the revolution devours its own children and the cadres turn on each other, and all are destroyed. Just a question of how long.

    It is already happening in the TERF-trans war.
    Ernest, not Nye, Bevin.
    Nye Bevan even.

    Are all left-of-centre Welshmen the same to the racist hard right?
    I am rarely moved to be very rude to people here (or anywhere else, but I would have thought people who commented on a politics site would have known the names of two giants of the 1945 Labour Government.
    Aneurin (Nye) Bevan was a former miner, who, having left school at 13 to go down the pit educated himself and worked his way up through the South Wales Miners Federation to become the Minister of Health who brought in the NHS.
    Ernie Bevin was a West Country man, again a 13yrs old school leaver who came up through the Transport Workers Union and became Minister of Labour during the War, subsequently Foreign Secretary.
    Well, Kinabalu, like the bigot he is, thought Ernie Bevin was Welsh
    :smile:

    Fair cop.

    I hang my head and slink away. To return (I hope) a new and improved man.
    Don't be too harsh on yourself. I have confused Michael Foot with Greg Hands.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 2,781
    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    I think that the short answer is that he probably doesn't. He is further behind than the Tories were after 2005 (167:157) and swings of that magnitude are rare indeed. We do not live in normal times of course and it is possible that elections will be more volatile than normal but the higher probability is that there will be a much reduced Tory majority in 2024 and a change of power the election after. He might get a second go a la Corbyn but I don't think that he has anything like the support base in the party that Corbyn had.

    Yes, the next general election will likely either see the Tories win with a narrow majority under Boris or Sunak a la 1992 or a hung parliament a la 2010 only this time with Labour largest party and doing a deal with the LDs rather than the Tories
    Even to get largest party Labour would need to win 84 seats directly from the Tories or rely upon them losing seats to others. That means Labour winning seats up to Ashfield requiring a 5.85% swing: http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/defence/
    I mean, its not impossible but its not likely.

    Corbyn really screwed the pooch for Labour.
    Wasn`t just Corbyn - or even mainly Corbyn. It was the brexit shenanigans.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 11,754

    kinabalu said:

    eadric said:

    The UltraWoke are coming for Nye Bevin now




    The WokeMania will end like all revolutions: when the revolution devours its own children and the cadres turn on each other, and all are destroyed. Just a question of how long.

    It is already happening in the TERF-trans war.
    Ernest, not Nye, Bevin.
    Nye Bevan even.

    Are all left-of-centre Welshmen the same to the racist hard right?
    Ernest Bevin was English.
    Yes. He was neither called Nye nor was he Welsh.

    Errors galore on this thread already.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 31,176
    eadric said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    eadric said:

    The UltraWoke are coming for Nye Bevin now




    The WokeMania will end like all revolutions: when the revolution devours its own children and the cadres turn on each other, and all are destroyed. Just a question of how long.

    It is already happening in the TERF-trans war.
    Ernest, not Nye, Bevin.
    Nye Bevan even.

    Are all left-of-centre Welshmen the same to the racist hard right?
    I am rarely moved to be very rude to people here (or anywhere else, but I would have thought people who commented on a politics site would have known the names of two giants of the 1945 Labour Government.
    Aneurin (Nye) Bevan was a former miner, who, having left school at 13 to go down the pit, educated himself and worked his way up through the South Wales Miners Federation to become the Minister of Health who brought in the NHS.
    Ernie Bevin was a West Country man, again a 13yrs old school leaver who came up through the Transport Workers Union and became Minister of Labour during the War, subsequently Foreign Secretary.
    Exactly. I was downright shocked and was seeking to say so in a rather acidic and cutting way. But I blew myself up with the "Welshmen" typo. I mean, it WAS a typo (obvs), but that is by the by.

    We move on.
    No, I'm sorry, you don't get off that easily.

    You mixed up Aneurin Bevan, a working class union man and Labour politician who rose to become a major minister in the 1945 Labour government, with Ernie Bevin, a working class union man and Labour politician who rose to become a major minister in the 1945 Labour government.

    It's frankly unforgivable, and makes you a clueless twerp, and I am rarely moved to be rude to people on here
    Thank goodness for that. You might get into trouble.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 969

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/18/uk-poised-to-abandon-coronavirus-app-in-favour-of-apple-and-google-models

    The UK is poised to announce it has abandoned its attempt to built a centralised coronavirus contact-tracing app and will instead switch to the model preferred by the technology firms Apple and Google.

    The embarrassing U-turn comes after British officials concluded it was technically impossible to create an effective app that does not conform to the Google and Apple model

    The incompetence of Boris Johnson's government is becoming sadly predictable. As I mentioned a few weeks ago the appointment of Baroness Dildo Harding was another "let's award one our chums" appointments that has become typical of this Brixit Party Lite Government, where the emphasis is always on the "Lite"
    Hmm, yes, you're right. It must be Boris.

    All previous government IT projects were staggering successes, weren't they?

    And it would have been a triumph if Corbyn were in charge instead?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 73,082
    eadric said:

    HYUFD said:

    How does Starmer make it to Number 10? Probably propped up by the LDs and SNP.

    To win a majority he would need to gain over 100 seats, more than any opposition leader since Blair in 1997 has achieved

    The way the govenment is going right now Starmer will get a 300-seat majority.

    This app thing is just basic, asinine mismanagement. Dismal.
    Few people care about this app issue other than geeks, there will still be an app and still be tracing, only the format of the app might change
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 5,541

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/18/uk-poised-to-abandon-coronavirus-app-in-favour-of-apple-and-google-models

    The UK is poised to announce it has abandoned its attempt to built a centralised coronavirus contact-tracing app and will instead switch to the model preferred by the technology firms Apple and Google.

    The embarrassing U-turn comes after British officials concluded it was technically impossible to create an effective app that does not conform to the Google and Apple model

    The incompetence of Boris Johnson's government is becoming sadly predictable. As I mentioned a few weeks ago the appointment of Baroness Dildo Harding was another "let's award one our chums" appointments that has become typical of this Brixit Party Lite Government, where the emphasis is always on the "Lite"
    Are you sure you don't want to edit that while you still can?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 31,176

    kinabalu said:

    eadric said:

    kinabalu said:

    eadric said:

    The UltraWoke are coming for Nye Bevin now




    The WokeMania will end like all revolutions: when the revolution devours its own children and the cadres turn on each other, and all are destroyed. Just a question of how long.

    It is already happening in the TERF-trans war.
    Ernest, not Nye, Bevin.
    Nye Bevan even.

    Are all left-of-centre Welshmen the same to the racist hard right?
    I am rarely moved to be very rude to people here (or anywhere else, but I would have thought people who commented on a politics site would have known the names of two giants of the 1945 Labour Government.
    Aneurin (Nye) Bevan was a former miner, who, having left school at 13 to go down the pit educated himself and worked his way up through the South Wales Miners Federation to become the Minister of Health who brought in the NHS.
    Ernie Bevin was a West Country man, again a 13yrs old school leaver who came up through the Transport Workers Union and became Minister of Labour during the War, subsequently Foreign Secretary.
    Well, Kinabalu, like the bigot he is, thought Ernie Bevin was Welsh
    :smile:

    Fair cop.

    I hang my head and slink away. To return (I hope) a new and improved man.
    Don't be too harsh on yourself. I have confused Michael Foot with Greg Hands.
    I confused Grant Shapps with Michael Green.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 26,616
    HYUFD said:

    eadric said:

    HYUFD said:

    How does Starmer make it to Number 10? Probably propped up by the LDs and SNP.

    To win a majority he would need to gain over 100 seats, more than any opposition leader since Blair in 1997 has achieved

    The way the govenment is going right now Starmer will get a 300-seat majority.

    This app thing is just basic, asinine mismanagement. Dismal.
    Few people care about this app issue other than geeks, there will still be an app and still be tracing, only the format of the app might change
    To be fair, most of the geeks have spent months laughing at the non-geeks who thought a mobile app could be a solution to contact tracing in the first place.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 5,541
    HYUFD said:

    eadric said:

    HYUFD said:

    How does Starmer make it to Number 10? Probably propped up by the LDs and SNP.

    To win a majority he would need to gain over 100 seats, more than any opposition leader since Blair in 1997 has achieved

    The way the govenment is going right now Starmer will get a 300-seat majority.

    This app thing is just basic, asinine mismanagement. Dismal.
    Few people care about this app issue other than geeks, there will still be an app and still be tracing, only the format of the app might change
    But people will caee that there is no app full stop, delayed for months for no good reasons.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 46,935
    edited June 18
    The NHS app screw up is following the path of testing. PHE , don't worry we got this testing thing under control, we can manage....a month later, no we haven't, we better call all the specialist labs / unis.

    I bet the app is the same, yes minister of cause we can make our own that is better and is centralised so we can collect more data.
  • GarethoftheVale2GarethoftheVale2 Posts: 1,388
    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    I think that the short answer is that he probably doesn't. He is further behind than the Tories were after 2005 (167:157) and swings of that magnitude are rare indeed. We do not live in normal times of course and it is possible that elections will be more volatile than normal but the higher probability is that there will be a much reduced Tory majority in 2024 and a change of power the election after. He might get a second go a la Corbyn but I don't think that he has anything like the support base in the party that Corbyn had.

    Yes, the next general election will likely either see the Tories win with a narrow majority under Boris or Sunak a la 1992 or a hung parliament a la 2010 only this time with Labour largest party and doing a deal with the LDs rather than the Tories
    Even to get largest party Labour would need to win 84 seats directly from the Tories or rely upon them losing seats to others. That means Labour winning seats up to Ashfield requiring a 5.85% swing: http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/defence/
    I mean, its not impossible but its not likely.

    Corbyn really screwed the pooch for Labour.
    And that's before boundary changes
  • isamisam Posts: 32,714
    Has anyone listened to the podcast? Do they mention the personality ratings deficit Starmer has to close?
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 5,456
    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    I think that the short answer is that he probably doesn't. He is further behind than the Tories were after 2005 (167:157) and swings of that magnitude are rare indeed. We do not live in normal times of course and it is possible that elections will be more volatile than normal but the higher probability is that there will be a much reduced Tory majority in 2024 and a change of power the election after. He might get a second go a la Corbyn but I don't think that he has anything like the support base in the party that Corbyn had.

    Yes, the next general election will likely either see the Tories win with a narrow majority under Boris or Sunak a la 1992 or a hung parliament a la 2010 only this time with Labour largest party and doing a deal with the LDs rather than the Tories
    Even to get largest party Labour would need to win 84 seats directly from the Tories or rely upon them losing seats to others. That means Labour winning seats up to Ashfield requiring a 5.85% swing: http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/defence/
    I mean, its not impossible but its not likely.

    Corbyn really screwed the pooch for Labour.
    But Corbyn was almost certainly the reason for their switch. Maybe some for Brexit, but with that done why would they vote for the Tories, let alone for a PM that even the most myopic can see has the leadership skills of a sheep? I will vote Labour for the first time in my life if Johnson is still leader of the Tories. I will happily switch back again at the following GE if he is replaced by someone more appropriate to the office. Labour voters will do the same in reverse.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 46,935
    Another comparison with testing cock up. German private lab were first to make a reliable test in Europe. PHE declined to licence it and spent another 3 weeks making own version.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 31,176

    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    I think that the short answer is that he probably doesn't. He is further behind than the Tories were after 2005 (167:157) and swings of that magnitude are rare indeed. We do not live in normal times of course and it is possible that elections will be more volatile than normal but the higher probability is that there will be a much reduced Tory majority in 2024 and a change of power the election after. He might get a second go a la Corbyn but I don't think that he has anything like the support base in the party that Corbyn had.

    Yes, the next general election will likely either see the Tories win with a narrow majority under Boris or Sunak a la 1992 or a hung parliament a la 2010 only this time with Labour largest party and doing a deal with the LDs rather than the Tories
    Even to get largest party Labour would need to win 84 seats directly from the Tories or rely upon them losing seats to others. That means Labour winning seats up to Ashfield requiring a 5.85% swing: http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/defence/
    I mean, its not impossible but its not likely.

    Corbyn really screwed the pooch for Labour.
    But Corbyn was almost certainly the reason for their switch. Maybe some for Brexit, but with that done why would they vote for the Tories, let alone for a PM that even the most myopic can see has the leadership skills of a sheep? I will vote Labour for the first time in my life if Johnson is still leader of the Tories. I will happily switch back again at the following GE if he is replaced by someone more appropriate to the office. Labour voters will do the same in reverse.
    So what did you vote the last time?
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 14,083
    OT Nate Silver has Minnesota as the tipping point state, Biden should see if he can find a senator from there to be his VP

    https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/our-new-polling-averages-show-biden-leads-trump-by-9-points-nationally/
  • FishingFishing Posts: 969
    edited June 18
    eadric said:

    The UltraWoke are coming for Nye Bevin now


    It is ridiculous attacking Bevin anyway for imperialism anyway, as Foreign Secretary in the government that granted India independence. For the first time in history, a country gave a great empire away voluntarily, and without asking anything in return.

    A moment that should be celebrated every bit as much as the end of slavery, though I appreciate the million or more Indians who died in the Partition Wars might not be quite so happy.

    Far more important than a trivial comment about natural resources.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 46,935
    edited June 18
    eadric said:

    HYUFD said:

    eadric said:

    HYUFD said:

    How does Starmer make it to Number 10? Probably propped up by the LDs and SNP.

    To win a majority he would need to gain over 100 seats, more than any opposition leader since Blair in 1997 has achieved

    The way the govenment is going right now Starmer will get a 300-seat majority.

    This app thing is just basic, asinine mismanagement. Dismal.
    Few people care about this app issue other than geeks, there will still be an app and still be tracing, only the format of the app might change
    Most people may not care, but some people are noticing. If the government is losing supporters like me, then it is in a bad way.

    More importantly, these endless errors are a symptom of a government that has lost the plot. That needs to change
    What i find interesting is some parts of the response to this crisis have been excellent. The food box system for shielded, the nightingale hospitals, the financial support, the RECOVER medical trial. All very good ideas and quickly / well executed.

    And the other end of the spectrum total and utter shit shows.

    I want to know who was behind the different schemes.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 2,538
    Interesting both Ayesha Hazarika and Alastair Campbell think pmqs really really important as an "anvil" and a "barometer."
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 3,599
    isam said:

    Has anyone listened to the podcast? Do they mention the personality ratings deficit Starmer has to close?

    This one?



  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 1,696
    edited June 18
    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    I think that the short answer is that he probably doesn't. He is further behind than the Tories were after 2005 (167:157) and swings of that magnitude are rare indeed. We do not live in normal times of course and it is possible that elections will be more volatile than normal but the higher probability is that there will be a much reduced Tory majority in 2024 and a change of power the election after. He might get a second go a la Corbyn but I don't think that he has anything like the support base in the party that Corbyn had.

    Yes, the next general election will likely either see the Tories win with a narrow majority under Boris or Sunak a la 1992 or a hung parliament a la 2010 only this time with Labour largest party and doing a deal with the LDs rather than the Tories
    Even to get largest party Labour would need to win 84 seats directly from the Tories or rely upon them losing seats to others. That means Labour winning seats up to Ashfield requiring a 5.85% swing: http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/defence/
    I mean, its not impossible but its not likely.

    Corbyn really screwed the pooch for Labour.
    A key figure is that the Tories only need to lose 41-44 seats to lose their majority (depending on how you count SF) and SFAICS no-one at all under any circumstances is going to form any sort of alliance with them.

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