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  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 14,772
    HYUFD said:

    eadric said:

    HYUFD said:

    How does Starmer make it to Number 10? Probably propped up by the LDs and SNP.

    To win a majority he would need to gain over 100 seats, more than any opposition leader since Blair in 1997 has achieved

    The way the govenment is going right now Starmer will get a 300-seat majority.

    This app thing is just basic, asinine mismanagement. Dismal.
    Few people care about this app issue other than geeks, there will still be an app and still be tracing, only the format of the app might change
    People will care because of the consequences which will either be more people dying, or greater restrictions on daily life.
  • glwglw Posts: 9,535
    edited June 2020
    Sandpit said:

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/18/uk-poised-to-abandon-coronavirus-app-in-favour-of-apple-and-google-models

    The UK is poised to announce it has abandoned its attempt to built a centralised coronavirus contact-tracing app and will instead switch to the model preferred by the technology firms Apple and Google.

    The embarrassing U-turn comes after British officials concluded it was technically impossible to create an effective app that does not conform to the Google and Apple model

    I'm struggling to fathom what that last sentence can actually mean.
    It means that the A/G solution relies on low-level access to devices which 3rd party software usually cannot access, and that this access is essential for a contact tracing application that meets the requirement of recording interactions between otherwise inactive devices.

    The A/G solution is the *only* way it's possible to get it to work, any other method simply can't work. (unless you make a battery-killing location aware app that's illegal not to use, as they do in China).
    Particularly with iOS it looked like the bluetooth advertisment broadcasting would throttle down to an ineffective level after a few minutes. It needs to transmit an advertisment every few hundred ms*. Things didn't appear to be as bad with Android from what I've seen, normal limits are workable. Scanning for advertisments should have worked on both platforms reasonably well just using normal APIs. It needs to run for about 10 seconds or so every 5-10 minutes.

    I suspect that both Google and Apple are whitelisting the contact tracing service so that it doesn't get inadvertantly clobbered or throttled by the usual background power management. They want this to be reliable, and I think they would give the service elevated privileges and limits that would not apply to third-party apps.


    * It might sound quite busy and power hungry, but as the advertisments are so short you are only on the air for about 1% of total time. If the bluetooth chipset can handle this work of transmitting adverisments without the application processor being active then the power usage should be minimal. It should work that way as if it didn't it would be almost entirely useless, and not just for contact tracing but for almost any BLE application.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    eadric said:

    HYUFD said:

    eadric said:

    HYUFD said:

    How does Starmer make it to Number 10? Probably propped up by the LDs and SNP.

    To win a majority he would need to gain over 100 seats, more than any opposition leader since Blair in 1997 has achieved

    The way the govenment is going right now Starmer will get a 300-seat majority.

    This app thing is just basic, asinine mismanagement. Dismal.
    Few people care about this app issue other than geeks, there will still be an app and still be tracing, only the format of the app might change
    Most people may not care, but some people are noticing. If the government is losing supporters like me, then it is in a bad way.

    More importantly, these endless errors are a symptom of a government that has lost the plot. That needs to change
    I believe you voted for New Labour and live in Camden.

    You clearly lean Tory but I expect the government will be more worried about holding working class Leave voters in the North and Midlands who live in Tory marginal seats
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 4,911

    Looking at the previous thread, I wonder how long we need wait before an exposé of the chaotic and incompetent No 10 under Boris Johnson? It is certain. Johnson is simply the British Trump; the most inappropriate man to hold that office in modern history.

    The thing is, I think Johnson and his cabinet of Brexiteer no-marks might just have about got away with it before this crisis exposed what a bunch of incompetents they really are.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 14,915
    eadric said:

    HYUFD said:

    eadric said:

    HYUFD said:

    How does Starmer make it to Number 10? Probably propped up by the LDs and SNP.

    To win a majority he would need to gain over 100 seats, more than any opposition leader since Blair in 1997 has achieved

    The way the govenment is going right now Starmer will get a 300-seat majority.

    This app thing is just basic, asinine mismanagement. Dismal.
    Few people care about this app issue other than geeks, there will still be an app and still be tracing, only the format of the app might change
    Most people may not care, but some people are noticing. If the government is losing supporters like me, then it is in a bad way.

    More importantly, these endless errors are a symptom of a government that has lost the plot. That needs to change
    On WATO they were saying UK also failed to ensure compatibility with apps in EU (because we make our own rules now obviously!) and as a result English* citizens may face additional constraints on travel to rest of Europe.
    Having a government run by arrogant and incompetent Little Englanders has consequences, who'd have thunk it.
    * The App is a devolved matter. Apparently in NI they are developing something compatible with the RoI app, they have figured out where their future lies.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712

    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    I think that the short answer is that he probably doesn't. He is further behind than the Tories were after 2005 (167:157) and swings of that magnitude are rare indeed. We do not live in normal times of course and it is possible that elections will be more volatile than normal but the higher probability is that there will be a much reduced Tory majority in 2024 and a change of power the election after. He might get a second go a la Corbyn but I don't think that he has anything like the support base in the party that Corbyn had.

    Yes, the next general election will likely either see the Tories win with a narrow majority under Boris or Sunak a la 1992 or a hung parliament a la 2010 only this time with Labour largest party and doing a deal with the LDs rather than the Tories
    Even to get largest party Labour would need to win 84 seats directly from the Tories or rely upon them losing seats to others. That means Labour winning seats up to Ashfield requiring a 5.85% swing: http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/defence/
    I mean, its not impossible but its not likely.

    Corbyn really screwed the pooch for Labour.
    But Corbyn was almost certainly the reason for their switch. Maybe some for Brexit, but with that done why would they vote for the Tories, let alone for a PM that even the most myopic can see has the leadership skills of a sheep? I will vote Labour for the first time in my life if Johnson is still leader of the Tories. I will happily switch back again at the following GE if he is replaced by someone more appropriate to the office. Labour voters will do the same in reverse.
    They won't if Starmer refuses to rule out rejoining the single market and allowing free movement again
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,852
    eadric said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    How does Starmer make it to Number 10? Probably propped up by the LDs and SNP.

    To win a majority he would need to gain over 100 seats, more than any opposition leader since Blair in 1997 has achieved

    These are very unusual times, though, do you not feel that? I definitely do. Indeed a Labour overall majority at the next GE is now SHORTER than a Conservative majority. 3.15 vs 3.25.

    That's amazing, really, when you think about it. 80 seat landslide won just 7 months ago. Must be a lay, logically, but something stops me doing that.
    This app calamity, by itself, could persuade me to vote for Starmer.

    I'm not kidding.

    The Tories have no bloody spine so they don't get my vote in the culture war. We already have socialist economics in place, so that's not an issue for the next half decade. By the next election Brexit will be done, so who cares about that.

    What's left? Basic competence. I just want basic competence. And, in that light, I could see myself voting for Starmer's Labour, if things don't rapidly change and improve. I am bored of being embarrassed by the world-beating uselessness of HMG
    Well if competence is the priority, yes I predict a long tortured "night of the soul" for you on the night before the election. But I bet you ride it out somehow.

    Have you ever voted anything bar blue? I sense not but I do sometimes get people wrong. The @Wulfrun_Phil debacle, for example.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950

    kinabalu said:

    eadric said:

    The UltraWoke are coming for Nye Bevin now

    https://twitter.com/AaronBastani/status/1273594848449384451?s=20


    The WokeMania will end like all revolutions: when the revolution devours its own children and the cadres turn on each other, and all are destroyed. Just a question of how long.

    It is already happening in the TERF-trans war.

    Ernest, not Nye, Bevin.
    Nye Bevan even.

    Are all left-of-centre Welshmen the same to the racist hard right?
    I am rarely moved to be very rude to people here (or anywhere else, but I would have thought people who commented on a politics site would have known the names of two giants of the 1945 Labour Government
    What makes PB PB.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,136
    HYUFD said:

    How does Starmer make it to Number 10? Probably propped up by the LDs and SNP.

    To win a majority he would need to gain over 100 seats, more than any opposition leader since Blair in 1997 has achieved

    It sounds like a lot when you out it like that but what if you rephrased is as "To win a majority he would need Boris to lose over 100 seats..."?
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 14,915
    Scott_xP said:
    Thank God it's not his job to make sure were taken seriously in foreign capitals.
    Wait, what?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,004

    Its a bloody good job covid seems to be on the way out for the moment. Imagine if it was still at much higher levels we would be stuck in our homes for another 3 months while they fixed the app...and then winter would be just around the corner and covid will be more than likely back with a bang and back to lockdown.

    As I said earlier today I broke out of 12 weeks lockdown today and went to B & Q.

    I was very wary but to be fair B & Q's organisation and lots of hand gel impressed me and to be honest I did not feel threatened and it was notable nobody, staff or customers, wore masks, though I had taken one with me. A small step today and I hope to venture to Asda in the next week or so

    However, the report from Germany with a sudden outbreak and the reintroduction of local lockdown does show how track and trace is needed and we cannot be complacent.

    On the thread the variables between today and GE 2024 are so vast I can only suggest labour have an equal chance of at least being the largest party but I cannot help thinking many on here are assuming Starmer has moved almost Blairite to the centre, but a lot more evidence is needed before that becomes a reality

    The ECHR will define Starmer, especially if it names Corbyn and other labour mps, and his ability to reject all those named from membership of the labour party
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,739
    OllyT said:

    The thing is, I think Johnson and his cabinet of Brexiteer no-marks might just have about got away with it before this crisis exposed what a bunch of incompetents they really are.

    It was known before the election.

    "We" voted for him anyway.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    edited June 2020

    eadric said:

    HYUFD said:

    eadric said:

    HYUFD said:

    How does Starmer make it to Number 10? Probably propped up by the LDs and SNP.

    To win a majority he would need to gain over 100 seats, more than any opposition leader since Blair in 1997 has achieved

    The way the govenment is going right now Starmer will get a 300-seat majority.

    This app thing is just basic, asinine mismanagement. Dismal.
    Few people care about this app issue other than geeks, there will still be an app and still be tracing, only the format of the app might change
    Most people may not care, but some people are noticing. If the government is losing supporters like me, then it is in a bad way.

    More importantly, these endless errors are a symptom of a government that has lost the plot. That needs to change
    What i find interesting is some parts of the response to this crisis have been excellent. The food box system for shielded, the nightingale hospitals, the financial support, the RECOVER medical trial. All very good ideas and quickly / well executed.

    And the other end of the spectrum total and utter shit shows.

    I want to know who was behind the different schemes.
    If I were to take a guess, it would be that the successful projects were those that weren't overly planned for, and came together in the moment based on non-extant teams forced together to get the job done.

    The bad-outcome projects relied on existing teams following plans developed for a generic scenario rather than the specific threat.
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556
    Scott_xP said:
    The idea that the Red Wall - or the Blue Wall, for that matter - will elect this kneeling simperer is really quite laughable.

    The North Remembers...
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 24,588
    isam said:

    Has anyone listened to the podcast? Do they mention the personality ratings deficit Starmer has to close?

    I am not sure that will be enough to negate a post Covid crashed economy.
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 4,911
    eadric said:

    Sandpit said:

    eadric said:
    Only after many of us on here, including @eek and myself (who both work with software) had done the same.
    Of course. TBH I think anyone with an IQ over 50 could see this was gonna be a total disaster. Just use Google/Apple, this is what they do, and what they do brilliantly. We all have Apple or Android phones. FFS.

    Of all the government's many cock-ups, this is potentially the most embarrassing and depressing, because it is so utterly crass, childish and predictable.
    With all due respect you were one of those that wished this government of the "cream of Brexit talent" upon us.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    HYUFD said:

    eadric said:

    HYUFD said:

    How does Starmer make it to Number 10? Probably propped up by the LDs and SNP.

    To win a majority he would need to gain over 100 seats, more than any opposition leader since Blair in 1997 has achieved

    The way the govenment is going right now Starmer will get a 300-seat majority.

    This app thing is just basic, asinine mismanagement. Dismal.
    Few people care about this app issue other than geeks, there will still be an app and still be tracing, only the format of the app might change
    I think you said the same about Cummings? The thing is, cumulative things are cumulative. There will be people who care about one but not the other, and the people who care about both are now more pissed off than they were with just the one. It all adds up.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712

    HYUFD said:

    How does Starmer make it to Number 10? Probably propped up by the LDs and SNP.

    To win a majority he would need to gain over 100 seats, more than any opposition leader since Blair in 1997 has achieved

    It sounds like a lot when you out it like that but what if you rephrased is as "To win a majority he would need Boris to lose over 100 seats..."?
    Yes but only Major in 1997 and Churchill in 1945 as PMs have lost over 100 seats
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    BBC News - Coronavirus: 51 workers catch Covid-19 at KFC and M&S meat plant
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-53091149
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,136
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    How does Starmer make it to Number 10? Probably propped up by the LDs and SNP.

    To win a majority he would need to gain over 100 seats, more than any opposition leader since Blair in 1997 has achieved

    It sounds like a lot when you out it like that but what if you rephrased is as "To win a majority he would need Boris to lose over 100 seats..."?
    Yes but only Major in 1997 and Churchill in 1945 as PMs have lost over 100 seats
    Well, we know he's an admirer of Churchill...
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    Fishing said:

    eadric said:
    It is ridiculous attacking Bevin anyway for imperialism anyway, as Foreign Secretary in the government that granted India independence. For the first time in history, a country gave a great empire away voluntarily, and without asking anything in return.

    A moment that should be celebrated every bit as much as the end of slavery, though I appreciate the million or more Indians who died in the Partition Wars might not be quite so happy.

    Far more important than a trivial comment about natural resources.
    'Celebrate' is a bizarre word for what was undoubtedly a total catastrophe, one of the worst in British history, dwarfing even Iraq in its effects. I've never understood why the Attlee government gets a free pass on being responsible for the disaster. It was so unnecessary: they were Boris-like in rushing it through for ideological reasons whilst ignoring the reality.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614

    eadric said:

    HYUFD said:

    eadric said:

    HYUFD said:

    How does Starmer make it to Number 10? Probably propped up by the LDs and SNP.

    To win a majority he would need to gain over 100 seats, more than any opposition leader since Blair in 1997 has achieved

    The way the govenment is going right now Starmer will get a 300-seat majority.

    This app thing is just basic, asinine mismanagement. Dismal.
    Few people care about this app issue other than geeks, there will still be an app and still be tracing, only the format of the app might change
    Most people may not care, but some people are noticing. If the government is losing supporters like me, then it is in a bad way.

    More importantly, these endless errors are a symptom of a government that has lost the plot. That needs to change
    On WATO they were saying UK also failed to ensure compatibility with apps in EU (because we make our own rules now obviously!) and as a result English* citizens may face additional constraints on travel to rest of Europe.
    Having a government run by arrogant and incompetent Little Englanders has consequences, who'd have thunk it.
    * The App is a devolved matter. Apparently in NI they are developing something compatible with the RoI app, they have figured out where their future lies.
    The EU angle is demonstrably false. There's no EU app standard, and most countries went their own way initially, before mostly arriving at the A/G standard individually.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 13,766
    Fishing said:

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/18/uk-poised-to-abandon-coronavirus-app-in-favour-of-apple-and-google-models

    The UK is poised to announce it has abandoned its attempt to built a centralised coronavirus contact-tracing app and will instead switch to the model preferred by the technology firms Apple and Google.

    The embarrassing U-turn comes after British officials concluded it was technically impossible to create an effective app that does not conform to the Google and Apple model

    The incompetence of Boris Johnson's government is becoming sadly predictable. As I mentioned a few weeks ago the appointment of Baroness Dildo Harding was another "let's award one our chums" appointments that has become typical of this Brixit Party Lite Government, where the emphasis is always on the "Lite"
    Hmm, yes, you're right. It must be Boris.

    All previous government IT projects were staggering successes, weren't they?

    And it would have been a triumph if Corbyn were in charge instead?
    That is pathetic quite frankly. Corbyn isn't PM, which if it were not that the alternative is almost as bad, would be a blessing. It is "Boris" as you so affectionately call him, because he is in charge and he appointed one of his chums, a person that badly fucked up when she was in charge of TalkTalk, and whom everyone in the tech sector knew was useless. So yes "Boris" is to blame because he is a fucking incompetent. Those Tory members who voted for the idiot are also to blame because they couldn't see what was obvious. Are you one by any chance?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited June 2020
    Sandpit said:

    eadric said:

    HYUFD said:

    eadric said:

    HYUFD said:

    How does Starmer make it to Number 10? Probably propped up by the LDs and SNP.

    To win a majority he would need to gain over 100 seats, more than any opposition leader since Blair in 1997 has achieved

    The way the govenment is going right now Starmer will get a 300-seat majority.

    This app thing is just basic, asinine mismanagement. Dismal.
    Few people care about this app issue other than geeks, there will still be an app and still be tracing, only the format of the app might change
    Most people may not care, but some people are noticing. If the government is losing supporters like me, then it is in a bad way.

    More importantly, these endless errors are a symptom of a government that has lost the plot. That needs to change
    On WATO they were saying UK also failed to ensure compatibility with apps in EU (because we make our own rules now obviously!) and as a result English* citizens may face additional constraints on travel to rest of Europe.
    Having a government run by arrogant and incompetent Little Englanders has consequences, who'd have thunk it.
    * The App is a devolved matter. Apparently in NI they are developing something compatible with the RoI app, they have figured out where their future lies.
    The EU angle is demonstrably false. There's no EU app standard, and most countries went their own way initially, before mostly arriving at the A/G standard individually.
    France for instance has a bespoke solution.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,852

    eadric said:

    Fishing said:

    eadric said:

    The UltraWoke are coming for Nye Bevin now

    https://twitter.com/AaronBastani/status/1273594848449384451?s=20


    The WokeMania will end like all revolutions: when the revolution devours its own children and the cadres turn on each other, and all are destroyed. Just a question of how long.

    It is already happening in the TERF-trans war.

    It was Nye Bevan and Ernest Bevin. Incredibly easy to get the two mixed up.

    The former set up the health service, the latter was foreign sec.
    Confession: all my long life I've thought they were the same person, I thought "Nye" was a diminutive form of Ernest, and I just didn't notice the different 2nd vowel in the surname.

    How odd. One of those blind spots.
    I knew they were different, but I thought they were brothers or cousins...
    In which case - in that alternative scenario - they could quite easily have both been Welsh.

    Vindication of sorts.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 14,915
    dixiedean said:
    In the US they refer to the head of the State Department as their top diplomat, and would view our Foreign Secretary in similar terms. A lot of their diplomats are political appointees so the distinction between the political head and the professional diplomatic corps isn't as absolute there. The bottom line though is that if our Foreign Secretary says something crass and offensive that impacts on US domestic politics he will get called out for it there.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 13,766
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    I think that the short answer is that he probably doesn't. He is further behind than the Tories were after 2005 (167:157) and swings of that magnitude are rare indeed. We do not live in normal times of course and it is possible that elections will be more volatile than normal but the higher probability is that there will be a much reduced Tory majority in 2024 and a change of power the election after. He might get a second go a la Corbyn but I don't think that he has anything like the support base in the party that Corbyn had.

    Yes, the next general election will likely either see the Tories win with a narrow majority under Boris or Sunak a la 1992 or a hung parliament a la 2010 only this time with Labour largest party and doing a deal with the LDs rather than the Tories
    Even to get largest party Labour would need to win 84 seats directly from the Tories or rely upon them losing seats to others. That means Labour winning seats up to Ashfield requiring a 5.85% swing: http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/defence/
    I mean, its not impossible but its not likely.

    Corbyn really screwed the pooch for Labour.
    But Corbyn was almost certainly the reason for their switch. Maybe some for Brexit, but with that done why would they vote for the Tories, let alone for a PM that even the most myopic can see has the leadership skills of a sheep? I will vote Labour for the first time in my life if Johnson is still leader of the Tories. I will happily switch back again at the following GE if he is replaced by someone more appropriate to the office. Labour voters will do the same in reverse.
    So what did you vote the last time?
    I voted Lib Dem. I am on a voting journey taking me away from things I believe in because of Boris Johnson and his lightweight acolytes
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 14,884

    BBC News - Coronavirus: 51 workers catch Covid-19 at KFC and M&S meat plant
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-53091149

    Might help explain some of the increase in North Wales cases?
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,232

    Fishing said:

    eadric said:
    It is ridiculous attacking Bevin anyway for imperialism anyway, as Foreign Secretary in the government that granted India independence. For the first time in history, a country gave a great empire away voluntarily, and without asking anything in return.

    A moment that should be celebrated every bit as much as the end of slavery, though I appreciate the million or more Indians who died in the Partition Wars might not be quite so happy.

    Far more important than a trivial comment about natural resources.
    'Celebrate' is a bizarre word for what was undoubtedly a total catastrophe, one of the worst in British history, dwarfing even Iraq in its effects. I've never understood why the Attlee government gets a free pass on being responsible for the disaster. It was so unnecessary: they were Boris-like in rushing it through for ideological reasons whilst ignoring the reality.
    You're referring to the partitioning of India? If so, how should they have gone about it differently?
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820


    France for instance has a bespoke solution.

    Yes, and not using the Google/Apple API, I believe. Ditto Norway (although they've now given up on it). So the UK wasn't quite as isolated as people make out, if that's any consolation!

    I do wonder though whether the whole idea of an app somehow making a major contribution is wrong in the first place, unless you go the whole S. Korea or Hong Kong route, which would never be acceptable in Europe. I have a sneaking suspicion that in all European countries the apps will end up being quietly dropped.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,004

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    I think that the short answer is that he probably doesn't. He is further behind than the Tories were after 2005 (167:157) and swings of that magnitude are rare indeed. We do not live in normal times of course and it is possible that elections will be more volatile than normal but the higher probability is that there will be a much reduced Tory majority in 2024 and a change of power the election after. He might get a second go a la Corbyn but I don't think that he has anything like the support base in the party that Corbyn had.

    Yes, the next general election will likely either see the Tories win with a narrow majority under Boris or Sunak a la 1992 or a hung parliament a la 2010 only this time with Labour largest party and doing a deal with the LDs rather than the Tories
    Even to get largest party Labour would need to win 84 seats directly from the Tories or rely upon them losing seats to others. That means Labour winning seats up to Ashfield requiring a 5.85% swing: http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/defence/
    I mean, its not impossible but its not likely.

    Corbyn really screwed the pooch for Labour.
    But Corbyn was almost certainly the reason for their switch. Maybe some for Brexit, but with that done why would they vote for the Tories, let alone for a PM that even the most myopic can see has the leadership skills of a sheep? I will vote Labour for the first time in my life if Johnson is still leader of the Tories. I will happily switch back again at the following GE if he is replaced by someone more appropriate to the office. Labour voters will do the same in reverse.
    So what did you vote the last time?
    I voted Lib Dem. I am on a voting journey taking me away from things I believe in because of Boris Johnson and his lightweight acolytes
    Because of Brexit if you are being honest
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,739
    This is Trump's other problem. If he wasn't able to load the Supreme Court, he is of no use to the headbangers
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614

    Sandpit said:

    eadric said:

    HYUFD said:

    eadric said:

    HYUFD said:

    How does Starmer make it to Number 10? Probably propped up by the LDs and SNP.

    To win a majority he would need to gain over 100 seats, more than any opposition leader since Blair in 1997 has achieved

    The way the govenment is going right now Starmer will get a 300-seat majority.

    This app thing is just basic, asinine mismanagement. Dismal.
    Few people care about this app issue other than geeks, there will still be an app and still be tracing, only the format of the app might change
    Most people may not care, but some people are noticing. If the government is losing supporters like me, then it is in a bad way.

    More importantly, these endless errors are a symptom of a government that has lost the plot. That needs to change
    On WATO they were saying UK also failed to ensure compatibility with apps in EU (because we make our own rules now obviously!) and as a result English* citizens may face additional constraints on travel to rest of Europe.
    Having a government run by arrogant and incompetent Little Englanders has consequences, who'd have thunk it.
    * The App is a devolved matter. Apparently in NI they are developing something compatible with the RoI app, they have figured out where their future lies.
    The EU angle is demonstrably false. There's no EU app standard, and most countries went their own way initially, before mostly arriving at the A/G standard individually.
    France for instance has a bespoke solution.
    Which appears to be working about as well as the NHS one.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,584

    OT Nate Silver has Minnesota as the tipping point state, Biden should see if he can find a senator from there to be his VP

    https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/our-new-polling-averages-show-biden-leads-trump-by-9-points-nationally/

    LOL.
    Give up on the Klob already. :smile:
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274

    BBC News - Coronavirus: 51 workers catch Covid-19 at KFC and M&S meat plant
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-53091149

    Might help explain some of the increase in North Wales cases?
    Interesting it is meat plant AGAIN...Germany and China outbreaks this week in them.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    edited June 2020
    eadric said:

    HYUFD said:

    eadric said:

    HYUFD said:

    eadric said:

    HYUFD said:

    How does Starmer make it to Number 10? Probably propped up by the LDs and SNP.

    To win a majority he would need to gain over 100 seats, more than any opposition leader since Blair in 1997 has achieved

    The way the govenment is going right now Starmer will get a 300-seat majority.

    This app thing is just basic, asinine mismanagement. Dismal.
    Few people care about this app issue other than geeks, there will still be an app and still be tracing, only the format of the app might change
    Most people may not care, but some people are noticing. If the government is losing supporters like me, then it is in a bad way.

    More importantly, these endless errors are a symptom of a government that has lost the plot. That needs to change
    I believe you voted for New Labour and live in Camden.

    You clearly lean Tory but I expect the government will be more worried about holding working class Leave voters in the North and Midlands who live in Tory marginal seats
    I did not vote for Nu Labour and I do not live in Camden
    You certainly lived in Camden pre lockdown, or at least central London.

    If you voted LD rather than Labour fair enough but that was still not always voting Tory and you are registered to vote in a Labour held seat anyway
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 4,911

    Scott_xP said:
    The idea that the Red Wall - or the Blue Wall, for that matter - will elect this kneeling simperer is really quite laughable.

    The North Remembers...
    How do you feel about your hero effectively taking the knee 4 hours later and giving "full respect" to BLM?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited June 2020


    France for instance has a bespoke solution.

    Yes, and not using the Google/Apple API, I believe. Ditto Norway (although they've now given up on it). So the UK wasn't quite as isolated as people make out, if that's any consolation!

    I do wonder though whether the whole idea of an app somehow making a major contribution is wrong in the first place, unless you go the whole S. Korea or Hong Kong route, which would never be acceptable in Europe. I have a sneaking suspicion that in all European countries the apps will end up being quietly dropped.
    Well the Google / Apple one certainly isn't flawless either.

    I have said from the start if we did go for the app, it had to be like South Korea, funny though that lots of media who started off shouting about how we need to do it like SK, now are but no, we can't have an app like that, privacy innit.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    edited June 2020


    You're referring to the partitioning of India? If so, how should they have gone about it differently?

    They should have taken it much more slowly - they just abandoned India to its fate. It needed much more planning and local involvement. Above all, if it was going to happen in the crude way of partition, it needed military and police presence to enforce law and order during the transition. The Attlee government just let the killings and ethnic cleansing happen, and did nothing.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,584

    eadric said:

    HYUFD said:

    eadric said:

    HYUFD said:

    How does Starmer make it to Number 10? Probably propped up by the LDs and SNP.

    To win a majority he would need to gain over 100 seats, more than any opposition leader since Blair in 1997 has achieved

    The way the govenment is going right now Starmer will get a 300-seat majority.

    This app thing is just basic, asinine mismanagement. Dismal.
    Few people care about this app issue other than geeks, there will still be an app and still be tracing, only the format of the app might change
    Most people may not care, but some people are noticing. If the government is losing supporters like me, then it is in a bad way.

    More importantly, these endless errors are a symptom of a government that has lost the plot. That needs to change
    What i find interesting is some parts of the response to this crisis have been excellent. The food box system for shielded, the nightingale hospitals, the financial support, the RECOVER medical trial. All very good ideas and quickly / well executed.

    And the other end of the spectrum total and utter shit shows.

    I want to know who was behind the different schemes.
    PHE is clearly implicated in the shit show end.
    The interesting question is to what extent the Health Secretary's obsession with 'protecting the NHS' effectively excluded anything outside of it.
    During a pandemic, the public health bits of the health system are probably of greater importance than the hospitals. And in our health system have been the most neglected for some time.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,852
    eadric said:

    eadric said:

    Fishing said:

    eadric said:

    The UltraWoke are coming for Nye Bevin now

    https://twitter.com/AaronBastani/status/1273594848449384451?s=20


    The WokeMania will end like all revolutions: when the revolution devours its own children and the cadres turn on each other, and all are destroyed. Just a question of how long.

    It is already happening in the TERF-trans war.

    It was Nye Bevan and Ernest Bevin. Incredibly easy to get the two mixed up.

    The former set up the health service, the latter was foreign sec.
    Confession: all my long life I've thought they were the same person, I thought "Nye" was a diminutive form of Ernest, and I just didn't notice the different 2nd vowel in the surname.

    How odd. One of those blind spots.
    Strange, with your obviously compendious knowledge of the Labour movement.
    We all have our blind spots. For the longest time I thought that Boris Johnson wasn't a fat cowardly lying sack of shit. Still, you live and learn.
    I'll take the knee on this one. I got it wrong.

    It is still interesting that the UberWoke are coming for a Labour giant (albeit somewhat forgotten - or misremembered)
    But does an Aaron Bastani tweet really constitute "the UberWoke coming for you"?

    To me, "the UberWoke are coming for you" sounds genuinely quite terrifying in a way that Aaron Bastani - for all his ripped biceps - just isn't, and his tweets even less so.

    Maybe I'm just a bit of a tough cookie.
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 4,911
    Scott_xP said:

    OllyT said:

    The thing is, I think Johnson and his cabinet of Brexiteer no-marks might just have about got away with it before this crisis exposed what a bunch of incompetents they really are.

    It was known before the election.

    "We" voted for him anyway.

    I agree but it took this crisis to open many peoples' eyes to what sort of people they ad elected.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 14,915
    Sandpit said:

    eadric said:

    HYUFD said:

    eadric said:

    HYUFD said:

    How does Starmer make it to Number 10? Probably propped up by the LDs and SNP.

    To win a majority he would need to gain over 100 seats, more than any opposition leader since Blair in 1997 has achieved

    The way the govenment is going right now Starmer will get a 300-seat majority.

    This app thing is just basic, asinine mismanagement. Dismal.
    Few people care about this app issue other than geeks, there will still be an app and still be tracing, only the format of the app might change
    Most people may not care, but some people are noticing. If the government is losing supporters like me, then it is in a bad way.

    More importantly, these endless errors are a symptom of a government that has lost the plot. That needs to change
    On WATO they were saying UK also failed to ensure compatibility with apps in EU (because we make our own rules now obviously!) and as a result English* citizens may face additional constraints on travel to rest of Europe.
    Having a government run by arrogant and incompetent Little Englanders has consequences, who'd have thunk it.
    * The App is a devolved matter. Apparently in NI they are developing something compatible with the RoI app, they have figured out where their future lies.
    The EU angle is demonstrably false. There's no EU app standard, and most countries went their own way initially, before mostly arriving at the A/G standard individually.
    You should write to the BBC, I'm only reporting what I heard on the radio.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,584
    IshmaelZ said:

    Interesting both Ayesha Hazarika and Alastair Campbell think pmqs really really important as an "anvil" and a "barometer."


    Shouldnt that be 'or' ?

    The combined anvil/barometer device would be seriously lacking in one or other functionality....
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    Funny how a rather important word missing...

    BBC News - Eastleigh boy, 14, in court over homemade bombs plot
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-hampshire-53092908
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,043
    Scott_xP said:
    Bad news buried under the Vera Lynn news?
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 13,766

    Scott_xP said:
    The idea that the Red Wall - or the Blue Wall, for that matter - will elect this kneeling simperer is really quite laughable.

    The North Remembers...
    They voted very enthusiastically for Tony Blair, who was, to use your verb so beloved by homophobes and misogynists , more simpering, than Starmer. They only voted for the Clown because he was not Corbyn. Bozo is hardly more working class than Starmer for ffs. What do you Johnson apologists smoke?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    Scott_xP said:
    Doesn't that just mean they have excess capacity?
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,136
    Nigelb said:

    OT Nate Silver has Minnesota as the tipping point state, Biden should see if he can find a senator from there to be his VP

    https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/our-new-polling-averages-show-biden-leads-trump-by-9-points-nationally/

    LOL.
    Give up on the Klob already. :smile:
    Never
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    edited June 2020

    Sandpit said:

    eadric said:

    HYUFD said:

    eadric said:

    HYUFD said:

    How does Starmer make it to Number 10? Probably propped up by the LDs and SNP.

    To win a majority he would need to gain over 100 seats, more than any opposition leader since Blair in 1997 has achieved

    The way the govenment is going right now Starmer will get a 300-seat majority.

    This app thing is just basic, asinine mismanagement. Dismal.
    Few people care about this app issue other than geeks, there will still be an app and still be tracing, only the format of the app might change
    Most people may not care, but some people are noticing. If the government is losing supporters like me, then it is in a bad way.

    More importantly, these endless errors are a symptom of a government that has lost the plot. That needs to change
    On WATO they were saying UK also failed to ensure compatibility with apps in EU (because we make our own rules now obviously!) and as a result English* citizens may face additional constraints on travel to rest of Europe.
    Having a government run by arrogant and incompetent Little Englanders has consequences, who'd have thunk it.
    * The App is a devolved matter. Apparently in NI they are developing something compatible with the RoI app, they have figured out where their future lies.
    The EU angle is demonstrably false. There's no EU app standard, and most countries went their own way initially, before mostly arriving at the A/G standard individually.
    You should write to the BBC, I'm only reporting what I heard on the radio.
    It's no surprise that the BBC would try and make an EU angle on a story, even when there wasn't one.

    A bit like the EU ventilator and PPE procurement schemes, that delivered precisely nothing but were still headline news for several days because the UK decided not to get involved.

    Now we have the EU trying to get international support for 'pooling' vaccines. No chance whatsoever of that happening, but somehow the BBC will find a way of making a story by which they can bash the UK government.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    edited June 2020
    eadric said:

    HYUFD said:

    eadric said:

    HYUFD said:

    eadric said:

    HYUFD said:

    eadric said:

    HYUFD said:

    How does Starmer make it to Number 10? Probably propped up by the LDs and SNP.

    To win a majority he would need to gain over 100 seats, more than any opposition leader since Blair in 1997 has achieved

    The way the govenment is going right now Starmer will get a 300-seat majority.

    This app thing is just basic, asinine mismanagement. Dismal.
    Few people care about this app issue other than geeks, there will still be an app and still be tracing, only the format of the app might change
    Most people may not care, but some people are noticing. If the government is losing supporters like me, then it is in a bad way.

    More importantly, these endless errors are a symptom of a government that has lost the plot. That needs to change
    I believe you voted for New Labour and live in Camden.

    You clearly lean Tory but I expect the government will be more worried about holding working class Leave voters in the North and Midlands who live in Tory marginal seats
    I did not vote for Nu Labour and I do not live in Camden
    You certainly lived in Camden pre lockdown, or at least central London.

    If you voted LD rather than Labour fair enough but that was still not always voting Tory and you are registered to vote in a Labour held seat anyway
    Central London aye. Now I am sadly exiled 2 miles away to XXXXXXX
    If you moved to Kensington or Cities of London and Westminster (both Tory held marginal seats) then your views would be very important to the Tories, elsewhere in London if not a Tory held seat the Tories will not be that bothered what you think unless at council elections and even then only if you live in a marginal ward.

    Such is the nature of FPTP
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    eadric said:

    The UltraWoke are coming for Nye Bevin now

    https://twitter.com/AaronBastani/status/1273594848449384451?s=20


    The WokeMania will end like all revolutions: when the revolution devours its own children and the cadres turn on each other, and all are destroyed. Just a question of how long.

    It is already happening in the TERF-trans war.

    You surely mean Ernest Bevin - not Nye Bevan.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,584
    Scott_xP said:
    His pronouncements are not so much tone deaf, as white noise...
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,072
    Spoke to a few red-wall-esque Northumberland Tories yesterday. They think the Government is completely clueless and shambolic. That doesn't mean they would vote for Starmer's Labour, but it certainly makes it more likely.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,004
    Sky just stated that Churchill wanted the UK and France to become one country

    I leave that there with no further comment
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 3,853
    eadric said:


    France for instance has a bespoke solution.

    Yes, and not using the Google/Apple API, I believe. Ditto Norway (although they've now given up on it). So the UK wasn't quite as isolated as people make out, if that's any consolation!

    I do wonder though whether the whole idea of an app somehow making a major contribution is wrong in the first place, unless you go the whole S. Korea or Hong Kong route, which would never be acceptable in Europe. I have a sneaking suspicion that in all European countries the apps will end up being quietly dropped.
    If there is a second wave the apps could be incredibly useful in avoiding a second lockdown (which we will be desperate to do).

    I also think western governments underestimate how willingly people would accept compulsory usage of these apps. We've already accepted an unprecedented mass lockdown and the decimation of our economy.

    If the government said "Look, this will help us avoid disaster, it will save thousands of lives and millions of jobs, we need you to download this obligatory app" then I reckon they would get 90% uptake: enough to make it highly effective
    I note there has been no criticism of Google/Apple at all.

    They decided that they wouldn't support a centralised method 'because privacy'.

    And yet Google at least continue to slurp all sorts of sensitive data into their own centralised database by default, including location data.

    They could probably track and trace most android users SK style going back years but aren't going to admit it.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,043
    dixiedean said:
    Under US system, the Sec of State is the top diplomat iirc.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Nigelb said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Interesting both Ayesha Hazarika and Alastair Campbell think pmqs really really important as an "anvil" and a "barometer."


    Shouldnt that be 'or' ?

    The combined anvil/barometer device would be seriously lacking in one or other functionality....
    LOL

    Bad Al was anvil, Ayesha was barometer.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,072
    HYUFD said:

    eadric said:

    HYUFD said:

    eadric said:

    HYUFD said:

    eadric said:

    HYUFD said:

    eadric said:

    HYUFD said:

    How does Starmer make it to Number 10? Probably propped up by the LDs and SNP.

    To win a majority he would need to gain over 100 seats, more than any opposition leader since Blair in 1997 has achieved

    The way the govenment is going right now Starmer will get a 300-seat majority.

    This app thing is just basic, asinine mismanagement. Dismal.
    Few people care about this app issue other than geeks, there will still be an app and still be tracing, only the format of the app might change
    Most people may not care, but some people are noticing. If the government is losing supporters like me, then it is in a bad way.

    More importantly, these endless errors are a symptom of a government that has lost the plot. That needs to change
    I believe you voted for New Labour and live in Camden.

    You clearly lean Tory but I expect the government will be more worried about holding working class Leave voters in the North and Midlands who live in Tory marginal seats
    I did not vote for Nu Labour and I do not live in Camden
    You certainly lived in Camden pre lockdown, or at least central London.

    If you voted LD rather than Labour fair enough but that was still not always voting Tory and you are registered to vote in a Labour held seat anyway
    Central London aye. Now I am sadly exiled 2 miles away to XXXXXXX
    If you moved to Kensington or Cities of London and Westminster (both Tory held marginal seats) then your views would be very important to the Tories, elsewhere in London if not a Tory held seat the Tories will not be that bothered what you think unless at council elections and even then only if you live in a marginal ward.

    Such is the nature of FPTP
    Blue Corbynista right here.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 9,653

    eadric said:


    France for instance has a bespoke solution.

    Yes, and not using the Google/Apple API, I believe. Ditto Norway (although they've now given up on it). So the UK wasn't quite as isolated as people make out, if that's any consolation!

    I do wonder though whether the whole idea of an app somehow making a major contribution is wrong in the first place, unless you go the whole S. Korea or Hong Kong route, which would never be acceptable in Europe. I have a sneaking suspicion that in all European countries the apps will end up being quietly dropped.
    If there is a second wave the apps could be incredibly useful in avoiding a second lockdown (which we will be desperate to do).

    I also think western governments underestimate how willingly people would accept compulsory usage of these apps. We've already accepted an unprecedented mass lockdown and the decimation of our economy.

    If the government said "Look, this will help us avoid disaster, it will save thousands of lives and millions of jobs, we need you to download this obligatory app" then I reckon they would get 90% uptake: enough to make it highly effective
    I note there has been no criticism of Google/Apple at all.

    They decided that they wouldn't support a centralised method 'because privacy'.

    And yet Google at least continue to slurp all sorts of sensitive data into their own centralised database by default, including location data.

    They could probably track and trace most android users SK style going back years but aren't going to admit it.
    Maybe "pricacy" wasn`t the only concern. I bet cost came into it. Google/Apple will want their pound of flesh, no doubt.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 13,766

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    I think that the short answer is that he probably doesn't. He is further behind than the Tories were after 2005 (167:157) and swings of that magnitude are rare indeed. We do not live in normal times of course and it is possible that elections will be more volatile than normal but the higher probability is that there will be a much reduced Tory majority in 2024 and a change of power the election after. He might get a second go a la Corbyn but I don't think that he has anything like the support base in the party that Corbyn had.

    Yes, the next general election will likely either see the Tories win with a narrow majority under Boris or Sunak a la 1992 or a hung parliament a la 2010 only this time with Labour largest party and doing a deal with the LDs rather than the Tories
    Even to get largest party Labour would need to win 84 seats directly from the Tories or rely upon them losing seats to others. That means Labour winning seats up to Ashfield requiring a 5.85% swing: http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/defence/
    I mean, its not impossible but its not likely.

    Corbyn really screwed the pooch for Labour.
    But Corbyn was almost certainly the reason for their switch. Maybe some for Brexit, but with that done why would they vote for the Tories, let alone for a PM that even the most myopic can see has the leadership skills of a sheep? I will vote Labour for the first time in my life if Johnson is still leader of the Tories. I will happily switch back again at the following GE if he is replaced by someone more appropriate to the office. Labour voters will do the same in reverse.
    So what did you vote the last time?
    I voted Lib Dem. I am on a voting journey taking me away from things I believe in because of Boris Johnson and his lightweight acolytes
    Because of Brexit if you are being honest
    Some voted FOR him for a number of things. I voted against him for a number of things and one was Brexit. Equally I voted against him as it was bleeding obvious to me that he is a liar and an incompetent. The two things don't always go together but often do. Brexit
    is one thing that divides Conservatives. You, if I remember correctly, don't agree with many Conservatives in your belief that riding a horse with a pack of hounds should be made a criminal offence. I am not in favour of that vindictive piece of legislation. You shouldn't really vote Tory perhaps?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    I think that the short answer is that he probably doesn't. He is further behind than the Tories were after 2005 (167:157) and swings of that magnitude are rare indeed. We do not live in normal times of course and it is possible that elections will be more volatile than normal but the higher probability is that there will be a much reduced Tory majority in 2024 and a change of power the election after. He might get a second go a la Corbyn but I don't think that he has anything like the support base in the party that Corbyn had.

    Yes, the next general election will likely either see the Tories win with a narrow majority under Boris or Sunak a la 1992 or a hung parliament a la 2010 only this time with Labour largest party and doing a deal with the LDs rather than the Tories
    Even to get largest party Labour would need to win 84 seats directly from the Tories or rely upon them losing seats to others. That means Labour winning seats up to Ashfield requiring a 5.85% swing: http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/defence/
    I mean, its not impossible but its not likely.

    Corbyn really screwed the pooch for Labour.
    But Corbyn was almost certainly the reason for their switch. Maybe some for Brexit, but with that done why would they vote for the Tories, let alone for a PM that even the most myopic can see has the leadership skills of a sheep? I will vote Labour for the first time in my life if Johnson is still leader of the Tories. I will happily switch back again at the following GE if he is replaced by someone more appropriate to the office. Labour voters will do the same in reverse.
    So what did you vote the last time?
    I voted Lib Dem. I am on a voting journey taking me away from things I believe in because of Boris Johnson and his lightweight acolytes
    Do you believe in anything other than Europe?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,972

    Sky just stated that Churchill wanted the UK and France to become one country

    I leave that there with no further comment

    It’s true, which is why we should take down all Churchill statues.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,232

    Sky just stated that Churchill wanted the UK and France to become one country

    I leave that there with no further comment

    I've never heard Winnie suggesting that. The French did propose a union between France and Britain with the Queen as head of state when Eden was PM, but the idea was quickly rebuffed:

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2007/jan/15/france.eu
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 14,915

    Sky just stated that Churchill wanted the UK and France to become one country

    I leave that there with no further comment

    Perhaps his statue does need to go after all...
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,722

    Funny how a rather important word missing...

    BBC News - Eastleigh boy, 14, in court over homemade bombs plot
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-hampshire-53092908

    'The boy, who cannot be named for legal reasons, '

    Just saying.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    DavidL said:

    I think that the short answer is that he probably doesn't. He is further behind than the Tories were after 2005 (167:157) and swings of that magnitude are rare indeed. We do not live in normal times of course and it is possible that elections will be more volatile than normal but the higher probability is that there will be a much reduced Tory majority in 2024 and a change of power the election after. He might get a second go a la Corbyn but I don't think that he has anything like the support base in the party that Corbyn had.

    DavidL said:

    .

    But if he makes gains on the scale achieved by Cameron in 2010 , he is likely to become PM - probably as a minority Government supported by the SNP, Plaid and Libdems etc. Plenty of earlier historical precedent too - in 1970 the Tories went from 253 seats to 330 - and in 1964 Labour moved up from 258 to 317.
    Starmer probably needs circa 265 seats to gain office.

  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,625

    Sky just stated that Churchill wanted the UK and France to become one country

    I leave that there with no further comment

    I've never heard Winnie suggesting that. The French did propose a union between France and Britain with the Queen as head of state when Eden was PM, but the idea was quickly rebuffed:

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2007/jan/15/france.eu
    The suggestion was made just as France surrendered - a union of the two countries and continue the fight from Britain.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,972
    edited June 2020

    Sky just stated that Churchill wanted the UK and France to become one country

    I leave that there with no further comment

    I've never heard Winnie suggesting that. The French did propose a union between France and Britain with the Queen as head of state when Eden was PM, but the idea was quickly rebuffed:

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2007/jan/15/france.eu
    1940

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Franco-British_Union#World_War_II_(1940)


    https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2017/08/dunkirk-brexit/536106/
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,852

    kinabalu said:

    eadric said:

    kinabalu said:

    eadric said:

    The UltraWoke are coming for Nye Bevin now

    https://twitter.com/AaronBastani/status/1273594848449384451?s=20


    The WokeMania will end like all revolutions: when the revolution devours its own children and the cadres turn on each other, and all are destroyed. Just a question of how long.

    It is already happening in the TERF-trans war.

    Ernest, not Nye, Bevin.
    Nye Bevan even.

    Are all left-of-centre Welshmen the same to the racist hard right?
    I am rarely moved to be very rude to people here (or anywhere else, but I would have thought people who commented on a politics site would have known the names of two giants of the 1945 Labour Government.
    Aneurin (Nye) Bevan was a former miner, who, having left school at 13 to go down the pit educated himself and worked his way up through the South Wales Miners Federation to become the Minister of Health who brought in the NHS.
    Ernie Bevin was a West Country man, again a 13yrs old school leaver who came up through the Transport Workers Union and became Minister of Labour during the War, subsequently Foreign Secretary.
    Well, Kinabalu, like the bigot he is, thought Ernie Bevin was Welsh
    :smile:

    Fair cop.

    I hang my head and slink away. To return (I hope) a new and improved man.
    Don't be too harsh on yourself. I have confused Michael Foot with Greg Hands.
    lol - I will not ask the circumstances.

    I used to work with GUY Hands - City big cheese - who I have always assumed was Greg's older brother. Was going to just go ahead and share that snippet with you but in the light of the litany of basic factual errors already from so many on this thread, I thought I'd check Wiki first. And he isn't. Not brothers.

    As for Michael Foot, that was the correct answer to my 2nd question when I appeared on Fifteen to One a few years ago. I answered James Callaghan and was eliminated there and then. Most people on here would have got the question right, I think. Certainly @HYUFD and @justin124 would have. I think you might of.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,625
    Scott_xP said:
    From the BBC -

    "NHS has been testing both systems against each other, over the course of the past month.
    The centralised version trialled on the Isle of Wight worked well at assessing the distance between two users, but was poor at recognising Apple's iPhones.
    Specifically, the software registered about 75% of nearby Android handsets but only 4% of iPhones.
    By contrast, the Apple-Google model logged iPhones but its distance calculations were weaker. In some instances, it could not differentiate between a phone in a user's pocket 1m (3.3ft) away and a phone in a user's hand 3m (9.8ft) away."
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 24,588

    Scott_xP said:
    The idea that the Red Wall - or the Blue Wall, for that matter - will elect this kneeling simperer is really quite laughable.

    The North Remembers...
    ...late lockdown, out of stock PPE, Dominic Cummings breaking lockdown whilst infected with Covid-19, failed track and trace, Marcus Rashford and school meals. I could go on and on and on. Much like your subjective, evidence free criticism of Starmer.
  • Starmer can easily become PM.

    Majority, no way. Minority, very likely.

    About 50 seats need to be gained by a combination of Labour, SNP, LDs, Greens, Plaid, SDLP and he'll be PM. Even the DUP might support him next time.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 14,772

    Sky just stated that Churchill wanted the UK and France to become one country

    I leave that there with no further comment

    Churchill did make that suggestion at one point during WWII, as a means to the end of keeping France in the war.

    Churchill certainly had some strong principles, that he kept to throughout his life. He was also very imaginative, and came up with many schemes to achieve his desired ends.

    The Anglo-French Union was more the latter than the former.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    Sky just stated that Churchill wanted the UK and France to become one country

    I leave that there with no further comment

    It’s true, which is why we should take down all Churchill statues.
    I think he only pretended he did to butter up Reynaud.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 14,772

    eadric said:


    France for instance has a bespoke solution.

    Yes, and not using the Google/Apple API, I believe. Ditto Norway (although they've now given up on it). So the UK wasn't quite as isolated as people make out, if that's any consolation!

    I do wonder though whether the whole idea of an app somehow making a major contribution is wrong in the first place, unless you go the whole S. Korea or Hong Kong route, which would never be acceptable in Europe. I have a sneaking suspicion that in all European countries the apps will end up being quietly dropped.
    If there is a second wave the apps could be incredibly useful in avoiding a second lockdown (which we will be desperate to do).

    I also think western governments underestimate how willingly people would accept compulsory usage of these apps. We've already accepted an unprecedented mass lockdown and the decimation of our economy.

    If the government said "Look, this will help us avoid disaster, it will save thousands of lives and millions of jobs, we need you to download this obligatory app" then I reckon they would get 90% uptake: enough to make it highly effective
    I note there has been no criticism of Google/Apple at all.

    They decided that they wouldn't support a centralised method 'because privacy'.

    And yet Google at least continue to slurp all sorts of sensitive data into their own centralised database by default, including location data.

    They could probably track and trace most android users SK style going back years but aren't going to admit it.
    I did make that criticism on here weeks ago - but I can forgive you for missing it. In general I think democratic governments should make this sort of decision, rather than unaccountable transnational corporations.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,584
    edited June 2020


    France for instance has a bespoke solution.

    Yes, and not using the Google/Apple API, I believe. Ditto Norway (although they've now given up on it). So the UK wasn't quite as isolated as people make out, if that's any consolation!

    I do wonder though whether the whole idea of an app somehow making a major contribution is wrong in the first place, unless you go the whole S. Korea or Hong Kong route, which would never be acceptable in Europe. I have a sneaking suspicion that in all European countries the apps will end up being quietly dropped.
    South Korean didn't really rely on an app, anyway.
    Their tech is auxiliary to the standard contact tracing gruntwork that's been around since the 1930s. Without which any app is pretty well useless.

    https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-01264-1
    ...But the foundation for South Korea’s COVID-19 response is a comprehensive testing strategy, backed by a nationwide network of contact-tracers who interview infected people and trace their contacts. The strategy includes the use of phone alerts, but not the Bluetooth apps being developed elsewhere. More importantly, it is based on a degree of surveillance that people in many other countries will find hard to accept....

    We've had a university designed app for months now:
    https://covid.joinzoe.com
    It doesn't do contact tracing, but it's an extremely simple and effective means of monitoring symptoms nationwide - and since testing capacity became available, provides a way to get a test quickly if you report symptoms (and then, of course, allows the researchers to correlate symptoms with positive tests).

    If the government had spent half the effort pushing this that they spent boasting about its useless development program, it might have 30 million using it rather than 3.8m.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,281
    edited June 2020

    Sky just stated that Churchill wanted the UK and France to become one country

    I leave that there with no further comment

    I've never heard Winnie suggesting that. The French did propose a union between France and Britain with the Queen as head of state when Eden was PM, but the idea was quickly rebuffed:

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2007/jan/15/france.eu
    "Winnie" lol! Like he was a personal friend :wink:

    I thought the Franco-British Union proposal was well known.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Franco-British_Union#World_War_II_(1940)
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 7,257

    Funny how a rather important word missing...

    BBC News - Eastleigh boy, 14, in court over homemade bombs plot
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-hampshire-53092908

    What word?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,972
    IshmaelZ said:

    Sky just stated that Churchill wanted the UK and France to become one country

    I leave that there with no further comment

    It’s true, which is why we should take down all Churchill statues.
    I think he only pretended he did to butter up Reynaud.
    As Suez proved we should never go into a military alliance with France.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,852
    justin124 said:

    eadric said:

    The UltraWoke are coming for Nye Bevin now

    https://twitter.com/AaronBastani/status/1273594848449384451?s=20


    The WokeMania will end like all revolutions: when the revolution devours its own children and the cadres turn on each other, and all are destroyed. Just a question of how long.

    It is already happening in the TERF-trans war.

    You surely mean Ernest Bevin - not Nye Bevan.
    Indeed. Not a conflation one expects on here of all places.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274

    Funny how a rather important word missing...

    BBC News - Eastleigh boy, 14, in court over homemade bombs plot
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-hampshire-53092908

    'The boy, who cannot be named for legal reasons, '

    Just saying.
    Nothing to do with it, as demonstrated by Sky News report.

    The teenager, from Hampshire, has been charged with one count of preparation of terrorist acts connected to Islamist terrorism.

    https://news.sky.com/story/fourteen-year-old-boy-from-hampshire-charged-with-plotting-terror-attack-12009136
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 24,588

    Starmer can easily become PM.

    Majority, no way. Minority, very likely.

    About 50 seats need to be gained by a combination of Labour, SNP, LDs, Greens, Plaid, SDLP and he'll be PM. Even the DUP might support him next time.

    Calm down CHB. Anything is possible.

    If the post Covid economy bombs and Johnson recovers it before the next election you have a Conservative government. If the post Covid economy bombs and Johnson doesn't turn it around you have anything from a minority Labour government to a Starmer landslide. Never say never!
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,625
    Selebian said:

    Funny how a rather important word missing...

    BBC News - Eastleigh boy, 14, in court over homemade bombs plot
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-hampshire-53092908

    What word?
    Unitarian. He is a Unitarian extremist.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 9,653

    Starmer can easily become PM.

    Majority, no way. Minority, very likely.

    About 50 seats need to be gained by a combination of Labour, SNP, LDs, Greens, Plaid, SDLP and he'll be PM. Even the DUP might support him next time.

    Betfair odds: Con majority 3.25. Lab majority 3.15. That`s astonishing.

    Laying Lab maj at 3.2 is a cracking bet - if you can be bothered to tie your money up that long.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    Pulpstar said:

    HYUFD said:

    How does Starmer make it to Number 10? Probably propped up by the LDs and SNP.

    To win a majority he would need to gain over 100 seats, more than any opposition leader since Blair in 1997 has achieved

    Well the first Cameron ministry was propped up by the Lib Dems so no reason a Starmer ministry couldn't be similiarly propped up by smaller parties.
    It is quite likely. The LDs tend to do better when Labour is seen as less of a threat to the middle ground, hence their success at the same time as Blair. People seem happier to vote LD if they can't quite bring themselves to vote Labour, but it rarely happens in the other direction. Johnson has 4 more years to really show how someone who is out of his depth can really fuck the Tories' chance of re-election, so I wouldn't make it improbable that Starmer plays it nice and safe and still has an historic victory. .

    Pulpstar said:

    HYUFD said:

    How does Starmer make it to Number 10? Probably propped up by the LDs and SNP.

    To win a majority he would need to gain over 100 seats, more than any opposition leader since Blair in 1997 has achieved

    Well the first Cameron ministry was propped up by the Lib Dems so no reason a Starmer ministry couldn't be similiarly propped up by smaller parties.
    .
    The 83 and 87 elections rather contradict that though - with the Alliance doing well in years of Tory landslides largely at Labour's expense.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941

    IshmaelZ said:

    Sky just stated that Churchill wanted the UK and France to become one country

    I leave that there with no further comment

    It’s true, which is why we should take down all Churchill statues.
    I think he only pretended he did to butter up Reynaud.
    As Suez proved we should never go into a military alliance with France.
    It's why we keep the deterrent.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,004

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    I think that the short answer is that he probably doesn't. He is further behind than the Tories were after 2005 (167:157) and swings of that magnitude are rare indeed. We do not live in normal times of course and it is possible that elections will be more volatile than normal but the higher probability is that there will be a much reduced Tory majority in 2024 and a change of power the election after. He might get a second go a la Corbyn but I don't think that he has anything like the support base in the party that Corbyn had.

    Yes, the next general election will likely either see the Tories win with a narrow majority under Boris or Sunak a la 1992 or a hung parliament a la 2010 only this time with Labour largest party and doing a deal with the LDs rather than the Tories
    Even to get largest party Labour would need to win 84 seats directly from the Tories or rely upon them losing seats to others. That means Labour winning seats up to Ashfield requiring a 5.85% swing: http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/defence/
    I mean, its not impossible but its not likely.

    Corbyn really screwed the pooch for Labour.
    But Corbyn was almost certainly the reason for their switch. Maybe some for Brexit, but with that done why would they vote for the Tories, let alone for a PM that even the most myopic can see has the leadership skills of a sheep? I will vote Labour for the first time in my life if Johnson is still leader of the Tories. I will happily switch back again at the following GE if he is replaced by someone more appropriate to the office. Labour voters will do the same in reverse.
    So what did you vote the last time?
    I voted Lib Dem. I am on a voting journey taking me away from things I believe in because of Boris Johnson and his lightweight acolytes
    Because of Brexit if you are being honest
    Some voted FOR him for a number of things. I voted against him for a number of things and one was Brexit. Equally I voted against him as it was bleeding obvious to me that he is a liar and an incompetent. The two things don't always go together but often do. Brexit
    is one thing that divides Conservatives. You, if I remember correctly, don't agree with many Conservatives in your belief that riding a horse with a pack of hounds should be made a criminal offence. I am not in favour of that vindictive piece of legislation. You shouldn't really vote Tory perhaps?
    I have voted conservative all my live apart from twice for Blair

    But I have no wish to get into a slanging match and of course like most political parties the conservative party has to be a broad church and at present the most important issue for me is it is trusted on the economy by 41% to 21% despite Boris
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 13,766

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    I think that the short answer is that he probably doesn't. He is further behind than the Tories were after 2005 (167:157) and swings of that magnitude are rare indeed. We do not live in normal times of course and it is possible that elections will be more volatile than normal but the higher probability is that there will be a much reduced Tory majority in 2024 and a change of power the election after. He might get a second go a la Corbyn but I don't think that he has anything like the support base in the party that Corbyn had.

    Yes, the next general election will likely either see the Tories win with a narrow majority under Boris or Sunak a la 1992 or a hung parliament a la 2010 only this time with Labour largest party and doing a deal with the LDs rather than the Tories
    Even to get largest party Labour would need to win 84 seats directly from the Tories or rely upon them losing seats to others. That means Labour winning seats up to Ashfield requiring a 5.85% swing: http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/defence/
    I mean, its not impossible but its not likely.

    Corbyn really screwed the pooch for Labour.
    But Corbyn was almost certainly the reason for their switch. Maybe some for Brexit, but with that done why would they vote for the Tories, let alone for a PM that even the most myopic can see has the leadership skills of a sheep? I will vote Labour for the first time in my life if Johnson is still leader of the Tories. I will happily switch back again at the following GE if he is replaced by someone more appropriate to the office. Labour voters will do the same in reverse.
    So what did you vote the last time?
    I voted Lib Dem. I am on a voting journey taking me away from things I believe in because of Boris Johnson and his lightweight acolytes
    Do you believe in anything other than Europe?
    Ok ,thanks. I don't "believe in Europe", I happened to believe leaving the EU is the most stupid foreign policy mistake in recent history, and that those like you that claim to believe in Brexit probably also believe in Father Christmas and fairies and goblins. Additionally, and unlike you, I don't just believe in a fad to be contrarian. I am fundamentally a Conservative: I believe in the right to engage in country sports, including fox hunting; I believe in a low tax economy; the enterprise economy; people beingallowed to get rich, the right to chose to educate your children privately and/or have a second home; go on posh holidays; eat expensive meals etc etc. In spite of all that I will NOT VOTE FOR THE CLOWN!
This discussion has been closed.