Would be the highest Democratic share of the white vote and the highest Republican share of the Hispanic vote since 2008 but also the highest Republican share of the black vote since 2004.
There has been talk of the Democrats losing Hispanic voters to the Republicans for a number of months now. It is why I think Biden might be tempted to go for a Hispanic VP candidate.
The rise of new taboos is pretty interesting. Academia is one battleground for the cultural conflict and we must add one more "contradiction under which Woke must collapse" the idea that any word has a fixed meaning and therefor must be banned which stands in contradiction to all current theories and practice across all academic disciplines.
That doesn't matter. We will have articles all over the NY Times and the Atlantic claiming how soyabeans are a crucial strategic commodity and so Trump must be impeached. Hell, it could be dog biscuits for all they care.
Important thread about US elections. If universities are closed then college student voter drives are fucked.
Presumably students can still vote? If they are more dispersed it may not be worse, they may be more likely to influence older family etc and their vote is maybe more efficient as less racking up big safe seats in congress.
Joe Biden Begins First General Election TV Ad Blitz The $15 million advertising effort will target six fall battlegrounds, all states that President Trump carried in 2016. (NYTimes)
Target states: Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Florida, Arizona and North Carolina.
Why would China want another Trump presidency when its led to a trade war which is only going to get worse after covid?
Trump as President weakens America and causes a lot of damage to its alliances. For China, and Russia, he could hardly be better.
For Russia absolutely, he couldnt be a better puppet (if he is one). Hence all the furore last time.
For China, I dont think thats right, they have been fine with the status quo over the last couple of decades, with China getting stronger economically and politically throughout the period. Dont see why they want Trump.
At this rate any white western person with a functioning brain cell, and a sense of self respect, is going to be fleeing to Asia - Japan, Singapore, Thailand, South Korea: like Russian aristos fleeing pastel but Bolshevik St Petersburg, for the sanity of Paris and London
Thailand for you, I guess? Old stamping ground and all that?
For info, today there is not a single Covid positive patient in Winchester, Basingstoke or Andover Hospitals.
82 Covid-19 positive inpatients in Leicester, plus 45 suspects, about half the numbers at the peak. I am unsure if they are equally unwell, or whether we are admitting at an earlier stage.
The proposed ban on incitement to “religious hatred” makes no sense unless it involves a ban on the Koran itself; and that would be pretty absurd, when you consider that the Bill's intention is to fight Islamophobia.
At this rate any white western person with a functioning brain cell, and a sense of self respect, is going to be fleeing to Asia - Japan, Singapore, Thailand, South Korea: like Russian aristos fleeing pastel but Bolshevik St Petersburg, for the sanity of Paris and London
Thailand for you, I guess? Old stamping ground and all that?
I doubt Eastern Europe will tolerate BLM... can we have another referendum please?! I've got a blue eyed, blond haired son, he won't stand a chance in the UK
Another politician unwilling to ask if the German or French models of health care are worth copying.
To be accurate, this is NOT Moran's policy position in isolation. There are 40 or so contributions including from former leader Sir Vince Cable.
It's seen as the 2020s version of the Orange Book which was a key part of some LD thinking in the period leading up to and during the Coalition period.
Given at least half (and I think it may be two thirds) of the LD membership joined after 2015, it's useful for the Party to re-define itself in more current terms as well as doing some thinking about the challenges of the 2020s and beyond.
It's possible this will begin the process of re-defining the LDs against Starmer's Labour party and mark a convergence between the two groups which will facilitate LD support (if required) for a minority Starmer Government after the next GE.
As I no longer have any skin in the game to quote the Americanism, I question why the LDs are trying to crowd into what is looking like a busy centre-left field. There remains a space for a party in the centre or centre-right espousing sensible finances as well as environmentalism stressing technological ingenuity rather than eco-authoritarianism.
As an antidote to the two high spending and high borrowing parties - the Liberal Unionists and the Social Democrats, a party advocating a more modest and sensible approach to public finance might have its adherents.
For info, today there is not a single Covid positive patient in Winchester, Basingstoke or Andover Hospitals.
82 Covid-19 positive inpatients in Leicester, plus 45 suspects, about half the numbers at the peak. I am unsure if they are equally unwell, or whether we are admitting at an earlier stage.
Do you know anything of the Leicestershire outbreak. Kirklees one has now been confirmed as another meat packing factory, which seems to be developing as a quite specific battle front now.
Another politician unwilling to ask if the German or French models of health care are worth copying.
Though comandeering private hospitals for NHS operations is current government policy, and likely to be extended for another few months. Hardly left wing radicalism!
As I pointed out in my header, who would have thought that a Conservative government would effectively ban private practice in medicine?
At this rate any white western person with a functioning brain cell, and a sense of self respect, is going to be fleeing to Asia - Japan, Singapore, Thailand, South Korea: like Russian aristos fleeing pastel but Bolshevik St Petersburg, for the sanity of Paris and London
Thailand for you, I guess? Old stamping ground and all that?
Never been there. Hear its pleasant. Japan or Singapore for me.
Failing that, Greece or Sri Lanka.
I am sadly serious. I think the West (classically: the UK, France, America, Italy, perhaps Germany on good behaviour) is fucked. I want out.
I will miss London, tho. Such a wondrous city, at its best: partly because it is genuinely racially harmonious, which is one thing which TRULY enrages me about BLM. They are importing American culture wars, which are poisonously divisive, into a society which was doing really quite well on racial harmony
I really like the tailfin/fuselage design. The stuff near the doorway (to be seen in photos as bigwigs disembark) with the target etc. looks a bit pants. A coat of arms would be nice.
For info, today there is not a single Covid positive patient in Winchester, Basingstoke or Andover Hospitals.
82 Covid-19 positive inpatients in Leicester, plus 45 suspects, about half the numbers at the peak. I am unsure if they are equally unwell, or whether we are admitting at an earlier stage.
Do you know anything of the Leicestershire outbreak. Kirklees one has now been confirmed as another meat packing factory, which seems to be developing as a quite specific battle front now.
It is in Evington.
Evington is a fairly middle class area, with significant Asian community, particularly Muslim. Quite a pleasant leafy bit of the city. Not obvious why.
For info, today there is not a single Covid positive patient in Winchester, Basingstoke or Andover Hospitals.
82 Covid-19 positive inpatients in Leicester, plus 45 suspects, about half the numbers at the peak. I am unsure if they are equally unwell, or whether we are admitting at an earlier stage.
Do you know anything of the Leicestershire outbreak. Kirklees one has now been confirmed as another meat packing factory, which seems to be developing as a quite specific battle front now.
Britain is down in 17th place in terms of new cases today.
We were beaten by countries like Iraq. Bangladesh, Pakistan: countries with much less efficient testing, which suggests the virus is now stampeding around the world
For info, today there is not a single Covid positive patient in Winchester, Basingstoke or Andover Hospitals.
82 Covid-19 positive inpatients in Leicester, plus 45 suspects, about half the numbers at the peak. I am unsure if they are equally unwell, or whether we are admitting at an earlier stage.
Do you know anything of the Leicestershire outbreak. Kirklees one has now been confirmed as another meat packing factory, which seems to be developing as a quite specific battle front now.
It is in Evington.
Evington is a fairly middle class area, with significant Asian community, particularly Muslim. Quite a pleasant leafy bit of the city. Not obvious why.
Ramadan has been implicated with the resurgence in the Mid East
I saw no crowds out in Evington for Eid or other nights of Ramadan. No meat packing in the area that I am aware of.
I think that meat packing generates aerosol and that it lasts well on metal surfaces. Social distancing difficulties, noise requiring shouting, and a transient workforce all add to it.
For info, today there is not a single Covid positive patient in Winchester, Basingstoke or Andover Hospitals.
82 Covid-19 positive inpatients in Leicester, plus 45 suspects, about half the numbers at the peak. I am unsure if they are equally unwell, or whether we are admitting at an earlier stage.
Do you know anything of the Leicestershire outbreak. Kirklees one has now been confirmed as another meat packing factory, which seems to be developing as a quite specific battle front now.
How many meat packing factories is that now?
Hope there’s some forensic work going to to work out why these places seem to be hotbeds of infection - or is it something only tangentially related, like everyone living in cramped dormitories near the site?
Important thread about US elections. If universities are closed then college student voter drives are fucked.
Presumably students can still vote? If they are more dispersed it may not be worse, they may be more likely to influence older family etc and their vote is maybe more efficient as less racking up big safe seats in congress.
The thread points out that students vote at an equivalent rate to people in their early thirties, so at a higher rate than people in their early twenties. This is due to college oriented GOTV operations.
With no colleges to focus GOTV for them college age kids turnout will (presumably) collapse.
For info, today there is not a single Covid positive patient in Winchester, Basingstoke or Andover Hospitals.
82 Covid-19 positive inpatients in Leicester, plus 45 suspects, about half the numbers at the peak. I am unsure if they are equally unwell, or whether we are admitting at an earlier stage.
Do you know anything of the Leicestershire outbreak. Kirklees one has now been confirmed as another meat packing factory, which seems to be developing as a quite specific battle front now.
It is in Evington.
Evington is a fairly middle class area, with significant Asian community, particularly Muslim. Quite a pleasant leafy bit of the city. Not obvious why.
Ramadan has been implicated with the resurgence in the Mid East
The Eid holiday, at the end of Ramadan, was three weeks ago. It’s a plausible theory.
“ Barnier has indicated a willingness to drop the demand that the UK continue to follow EU rules on state aid in perpetuity. He is also prepared to move position on the vital subject of fish. The EU had wanted the status quo to continue but there is now a growing acceptance that this isn’t realistic, even if the coastal member states are still reluctant to accept this. These small shifts show that the Commission now understands there must be genuine negotiation.”
If the LPF shift is genuine and not in name only then I can see a deal being done, at least an interim one that lays out a direction of travel. If it's not then we're still heading for no deal, aiui it's about the most red of red lines we have in the negotiation.
I suspect enough of a fudge and long grass kicking will be achieved to sign something.
Both sides want it.
I think not even a fudge is good enough, it needs to be as genuine shift in the position to remove the self correcting mechanism. Again, both sides want a deal, but aiui the UK doesn't want one at that cost because it poisons the well for all other potential trade deals as other countries will begin to insist on similar self correcting clauses.
The simplistic fudge I see is to have no self-correcting mechanism but for the EU to be able to add some tariffs [to be determined in the future] if the UK diverges.
The UK gets to control its laws, the EU gets to say they've held firm but in reality there's zero tariffs, zero quotas and no alignment.
Since the EU has a major trade surplus with the UK the tariffs will never realistically materialise.
Labour has a “mountain to climb” if it is to get back into power, according to a major review of the 2019 general election defeat, which paints a picture of dysfunctionality, toxicity and drift inside the party’s election-fighting machine.
Negative perceptions of Jeremy Corbyn’s leadership, doubts about the manifesto and the party’s ambivalent Brexit stance reinforced each other in a “snowballing” effect to deliver December’s catastrophic result, the 150-page report by the party group Labour Together argues.
However, it was also the product of two decades of demographic and political change that hit the party’s traditional base, and could endanger more Labour seats in 2024.
“Labour’s electoral coalition had been fracturing for a long time and was broken in 2019. We were rejected by many of the communities we were founded to represent,” says the report, seen by the Guardian. “We lost all types of voters everywhere compared with 2017, except in London.”
Using interviews with senior party figures, as well as previously unpublished polling and new analysis, the report identifies significant shortcomings in the election campaign, which followed 18 months of debilitating parliamentary wrangles over Brexit.
Key findings include:
• Labour “went into the 2019 election without a clear strategy of which voters we needed to persuade or how”, and failed to settle on a coherent message with the power of 2017’s: “For the many, not the few”.
• “It was unclear who was in charge” of the election campaign, and relationships were soured by years of infighting which had created a “toxic culture” and “significant strategic and operational dysfunction”.
• Labour was outgunned by the Tories in the digital war, with messages poorly coordinated and most of them failing to reach beyond the party’s base.
• Helped by their clear “Get Brexit done” message, the Conservatives succeeded in turning out 2 million previous non-voters, accounting for two thirds of the increase in their vote share.
• Labour’s seat targeting was “unrealistic” and “not evidence-based”, and many candidates felt they did not receive enough support from the national party.
I also think Johnson touches a nerve with blue collar classes. Unfortunately Starmer doesn't, he appears superior and aloof. Johnson on the other hand comes across as an optimist who gets things done, someone who understands the fears and aspirations of people working hard to scratch a living. To me it is all smoke and mirrors. To hard working Britain it is real.
If Coronavirus and Brexit do not bring the UK economy to its knees, and Johnson survives any scandals between now and 2024, he is on for another thumping victory.
If the economy bombs, he doesn't win. If the economy bombs quickly and he is replaced, none of the potential candidates have the Johnson "magic". Raab, Sunak, Gove or Patel will not retain the red wall.
Labour has a “mountain to climb” if it is to get back into power, according to a major review of the 2019 general election defeat, which paints a picture of dysfunctionality, toxicity and drift inside the party’s election-fighting machine.
Negative perceptions of Jeremy Corbyn’s leadership, doubts about the manifesto and the party’s ambivalent Brexit stance reinforced each other in a “snowballing” effect to deliver December’s catastrophic result, the 150-page report by the party group Labour Together argues.
However, it was also the product of two decades of demographic and political change that hit the party’s traditional base, and could endanger more Labour seats in 2024.
“Labour’s electoral coalition had been fracturing for a long time and was broken in 2019. We were rejected by many of the communities we were founded to represent,” says the report, seen by the Guardian. “We lost all types of voters everywhere compared with 2017, except in London.”
Using interviews with senior party figures, as well as previously unpublished polling and new analysis, the report identifies significant shortcomings in the election campaign, which followed 18 months of debilitating parliamentary wrangles over Brexit.
Key findings include:
• Labour “went into the 2019 election without a clear strategy of which voters we needed to persuade or how”, and failed to settle on a coherent message with the power of 2017’s: “For the many, not the few”.
• “It was unclear who was in charge” of the election campaign, and relationships were soured by years of infighting which had created a “toxic culture” and “significant strategic and operational dysfunction”.
• Labour was outgunned by the Tories in the digital war, with messages poorly coordinated and most of them failing to reach beyond the party’s base.
• Helped by their clear “Get Brexit done” message, the Conservatives succeeded in turning out 2 million previous non-voters, accounting for two thirds of the increase in their vote share.
• Labour’s seat targeting was “unrealistic” and “not evidence-based”, and many candidates felt they did not receive enough support from the national party.
I will perhaps be a bit controversial here. (who me?? )
I think Labour under Starmer has an excellent chance of winning the next election. I certainly don't want them to as personally I am not a fan and don't believe they will be good for the country. But Starmer is portraying himself (and may well be for all know) as a reasonable, centre left politician who can offer a real alternative to the Tories. Johnson is not a great leader or PM. I don't think he is even a very good leader or PM although I certainly don't think he is as bad as some make out.
But in the end I think his problem is that he is just not that bright. At least politically. He can't recognise the things that reflect badly on his party. He has handled Covid poorly. If he had just been mediocre he would probably have come out of it well but he has made some really basic errors that were warned about and which have subsequently happened. Blind optimism and a harkening to a core vote will get you so far but it won't get you through 4 years of tough times if you lack the ability and determination to make things work.
As I said before I want Cummings to succeed in his attempts to reshape our institutions. I thin given the chance a lot of that reshaping might even be in ways that those on the left might like, breaking the power of the old elites. But he won't succeed in it with Johnson as his figurehead.
So I am already kind of resigned to Starmer winning in 2024. I know a lot can happen in 4 years - 'events dear boy' and all that - but I think you have to have the right person in place to take advantage of those 'events'. I just don't think that person is Johnson.
Comments
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Le_Grand_Saint_Michel,_by_Raffaello_Sanzio,_from_C2RMF_retouched.jpg
https://www.statista.com/statistics/192076/top-10-soybean-producing-us-states/
Important thread about US elections. If universities are closed then college student voter drives are fucked.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/jun/18/radical-proposals-in-lib-dem-policy-review-suggest-shift-to-the-left
Another politician unwilling to ask if the German or French models of health care are worth copying.
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1273714843984560128?s=20
Joe Biden Begins First General Election TV Ad Blitz
The $15 million advertising effort will target six fall battlegrounds, all states that President Trump carried in 2016.
(NYTimes)
Target states: Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Florida, Arizona and North Carolina.
But do copy the health provision aspect of german health care
For China, I dont think thats right, they have been fine with the status quo over the last couple of decades, with China getting stronger economically and politically throughout the period. Dont see why they want Trump.
- Boris in the Daily Telegraph, 21 July 2005
The plan to bury the failed app news under the Vera announcement has failed.
https://twitter.com/BBCHelena/status/1273719856802693120/photo/1
Lead on BBC 10 news: Vera.
It's seen as the 2020s version of the Orange Book which was a key part of some LD thinking in the period leading up to and during the Coalition period.
Given at least half (and I think it may be two thirds) of the LD membership joined after 2015, it's useful for the Party to re-define itself in more current terms as well as doing some thinking about the challenges of the 2020s and beyond.
It's possible this will begin the process of re-defining the LDs against Starmer's Labour party and mark a convergence between the two groups which will facilitate LD support (if required) for a minority Starmer Government after the next GE.
As I no longer have any skin in the game to quote the Americanism, I question why the LDs are trying to crowd into what is looking like a busy centre-left field. There remains a space for a party in the centre or centre-right espousing sensible finances as well as environmentalism stressing technological ingenuity rather than eco-authoritarianism.
As an antidote to the two high spending and high borrowing parties - the Liberal Unionists and the Social Democrats, a party advocating a more modest and sensible approach to public finance might have its adherents.
Or maybe it won't
As I pointed out in my header, who would have thought that a Conservative government would effectively ban private practice in medicine?
Evington is a fairly middle class area, with significant Asian community, particularly Muslim. Quite a pleasant leafy bit of the city. Not obvious why.
"Johnson’s clear and effective “get Brexit done” message convinced two million people who previously did not vote, the report found." (HuffPo)
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/india/
I think that meat packing generates aerosol and that it lasts well on metal surfaces. Social distancing difficulties, noise requiring shouting, and a transient workforce all add to it.
Hope there’s some forensic work going to to work out why these places seem to be hotbeds of infection - or is it something only tangentially related, like everyone living in cramped dormitories near the site?
With no colleges to focus GOTV for them college age kids turnout will (presumably) collapse.
NEW THREAD
Free. Free at last.
That rings true.
If Coronavirus and Brexit do not bring the UK economy to its knees, and Johnson survives any scandals between now and 2024, he is on for another thumping victory.
If the economy bombs, he doesn't win. If the economy bombs quickly and he is replaced, none of the potential candidates have the Johnson "magic". Raab, Sunak, Gove or Patel will not retain the red wall.
Like Johnson and Cummings.
Labour did pretty badly in much of London as well.
I think Labour under Starmer has an excellent chance of winning the next election. I certainly don't want them to as personally I am not a fan and don't believe they will be good for the country. But Starmer is portraying himself (and may well be for all know) as a reasonable, centre left politician who can offer a real alternative to the Tories. Johnson is not a great leader or PM. I don't think he is even a very good leader or PM although I certainly don't think he is as bad as some make out.
But in the end I think his problem is that he is just not that bright. At least politically. He can't recognise the things that reflect badly on his party. He has handled Covid poorly. If he had just been mediocre he would probably have come out of it well but he has made some really basic errors that were warned about and which have subsequently happened. Blind optimism and a harkening to a core vote will get you so far but it won't get you through 4 years of tough times if you lack the ability and determination to make things work.
As I said before I want Cummings to succeed in his attempts to reshape our institutions. I thin given the chance a lot of that reshaping might even be in ways that those on the left might like, breaking the power of the old elites. But he won't succeed in it with Johnson as his figurehead.
So I am already kind of resigned to Starmer winning in 2024. I know a lot can happen in 4 years - 'events dear boy' and all that - but I think you have to have the right person in place to take advantage of those 'events'. I just don't think that person is Johnson.