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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Trump: Pardon Me

SystemSystem Posts: 8,258
edited June 20 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Trump: Pardon Me

Decorum has never featured highly among Donald Trump’s characteristics. If you view life rather like a computer game where the High Scores are measured in dollars and ratings, and any casulaties along the way can be dismissed as casually as a pixellated image, norms of behaviour are of little consequence. And decorum is certainly not what to expect should Trump lose in November.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • First
  • I hope the protests today are peaceful and respect social distancing, I think it unlikely.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 3,099
    The idea behind this piece rests on Trump admitting to himself that he has done anything wrong. I can't see it.

    Picking up on something from the last thread, it's my cursory analysis that voting intention figures lag. It wasn't for a month after Black Wednesday that the real fallout began to show in voting intention opinion polls. Even then, it took six months for the full impact to reveal.

    As I mentioned at the time of the Cummings saga, I expect Labour to take the lead in at least one national opinion poll within 3 months i.e. end of August. Since the tories were leading by at least 20% prior to this omnishambles, that's seismic.


  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 14,083
    This is great timing, was this queued up for a Friday night on the basis that Trump was pretty much bound to attempt to fire somebody investigating his crimes?

    PS It's a very old-media move by Trump trying to obstruct prosecution of his crimes on a Friday night, it doesn't work so well when everybody's stuck at home squinting at the internet.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 14,083
    On topic, you caught Shadsy in a generous mood, that's a very fair price.

    I don't see why Trump *wouldn't* pardon himself in the lame-duck period, assuming he can do it in the preemptive way David Herdson suggests. What's he got to lose?

    Of course, this only helps with federal crimes, they can still get him in state courts.

  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 14,083

    The idea behind this piece rests on Trump admitting to himself that he has done anything wrong. I can't see it.

    I think he can easily say something like "there's a politically-motivated witch-hunt against me, I pardon myself from anything I may have done that's technically illegal so they can stop wasting my time".
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 3,099
    edited June 20



    Trump ... What's he got to lose?

    Pride

    You're both applying your own moral code to a man that has none. He will never admit he has done anything that requires pardoning.

    Bet away but Shadsy will be the one having the last laugh on this one I fear.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 14,083



    Trump ... What's he got to lose?

    Pride

    You're both applying your own moral code to a man that has none. He will never admit he has done anything that requires pardoning.

    Bet away but Shadsy will be the one having the last laugh on this one I fear.
    Disagree, I think you're applying the moral code of someone who cares about intellectual consistency.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 7,673
    edited June 20
    Yes, that seems like decent enough odds to me. I doubt Donald will be worried about the cosmetics. He will be worried about staying out of jail.

    I have wondered of late whether he actually wants to win in November but the signs are that he does, even if he has his own peculiar way of showing it. I suspect he will have to win without much help from his old mate Putin this time. Russia is reporting 8,000 new C-19 cases a day. Vlad has his own problems.

    Btw, Kamala Harris's price in the VP stakes seems to have settled around 10/11. The cause of the betting rush seems to have been a tweet to the effect that Biden has it down to two, Harris and Demmings. If that is so, Demmings should be shorter than 5/1.

    I have no idea whether there is any substance in the story. I would guess that if there is, both Candidates would be shorter than they are.
  • FlannerFlanner Posts: 249
    It's not just allegations of breaking State laws that the outgoing President can't pardon.

    In Trump's case, I'd have thought civil suits and extradition applications for breaches of other countries' laws would tie him, and his finances, up for the rest of his life as well.

    Catherine Belton's recent book "Putin's People" for example, indicates hair-raising complicity by Trump in financial rackets in Russia. And though we might not expect any action from Putin, those allegations inevitably involve abuses of financial rules in the major European economies - and in the archipelago of British-ruled tax havens whose governments could easily turn against ex-President Trump given the right pressure from the US, EU or UK.

    Because one of the few certainties of the next five months is that Trump will piss off the Brits and the EU even more than he'll piss off the incoming Democrat administration.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 22,331



    Trump ... What's he got to lose?

    Pride

    You're both applying your own moral code to a man that has none. He will never admit he has done anything that requires pardoning.

    Bet away but Shadsy will be the one having the last laugh on this one I fear.
    I’m not so sure about that, either.
    This is a man who has utterly corrupted the Justice Department, and is happy to tell the most outrageous and transparent lies. He doesn’t give a damn about public opinion as long as he has sufficient acolytes around him.

    Justifying pardoning himself would be a piece of cake.
  • eekeek Posts: 8,141

    Yes, that seems like decent enough odds to me. I doubt Donald will be worried about the cosmetics. He will be worried about staying out of jail.

    I have wondered of late whether he actually wants to win in November but the signs are that he does, even if he has his own peculiar way of showing it. I suspect he will have to win without much help from his old mate Putin this time. Russia is reporting 8,000 new C-19 cases a day. Vlad has his own problems.

    Btw, Kamala Harris's price in the VP stakes seems to have settled around 10/11. The cause of the betting rush seems to have been a tweet to the effect that Biden has it down to two, Harris and Demmings. If that is so, Demmings should be shorter than 5/1.

    I have no idea whether there is any substance in the story. I would guess that if there is, both Candidates would be shorter than they are.

    Demings would ensure that Florida Democrats get out and vote and Blacks are now 18% of the voters after article 4 became law. I think 5 /1 is generous.

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 22,331
    One thing is for sure, a second term would be a disaster for the rule of law in the US.

  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 7,673
    eek said:

    Yes, that seems like decent enough odds to me. I doubt Donald will be worried about the cosmetics. He will be worried about staying out of jail.

    I have wondered of late whether he actually wants to win in November but the signs are that he does, even if he has his own peculiar way of showing it. I suspect he will have to win without much help from his old mate Putin this time. Russia is reporting 8,000 new C-19 cases a day. Vlad has his own problems.

    Btw, Kamala Harris's price in the VP stakes seems to have settled around 10/11. The cause of the betting rush seems to have been a tweet to the effect that Biden has it down to two, Harris and Demmings. If that is so, Demmings should be shorter than 5/1.

    I have no idea whether there is any substance in the story. I would guess that if there is, both Candidates would be shorter than they are.

    Demings would ensure that Florida Democrats get out and vote and Blacks are now 18% of the voters after article 4 became law. I think 5 /1 is generous.

    Thanks. There's still a bit of 11/2 if you nip over to Betfair now.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 2,538
    I am not sure it's a given that Trump can pardon himself just because it isn't expressly prohibited, there's surely an argument that self pardon is logically impossible. Nixon obviously thought the concept problematic.

    And I don't think pride would stop him pardoning himself. First he hasn't any (see all his tweets ever) and secondly if he gets into the prison system he is in very grave danger, like Epstein was.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 3,599
    Before we get all smug about Trump's gross misdemeanors in office, don't forget about his protege, BoZo

    Boris Johnson has delayed the formation of parliament’s intelligence watchdog after removing a provisional member for disloyalty.

    The government has been questioned over why the intelligence and security select committee has yet to be reconvened more than six months after the election. Other select committees that scrutinise departments have been working for months.

    Its formation has been delayed after Theresa Villiers, the former environment secretary, was barred from joining after defying the Tory whip in a vote on food standards.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/theresa-villiers-axed-from-intelligence-committee-for-disloyalty-3gws00lt7
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 29,154
    I do love the dry understatement all the way through the header!

    The one reservation I have is:

    Can a president actually pardon himself?

    I remember a lot of debates about this, but I can’t remember what conclusion was drawn.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 14,933


    Barr attempts to fire person. Person says fuck you to Barr.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 22,331
    Alistair said:



    Barr attempts to fire person. Person says fuck you to Barr.
    Going to be interesting to see how it pans out, since as a temporary appointment, he was appointed by judges, not the President.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 14,933
    Nigelb said:

    Alistair said:



    Barr attempts to fire person. Person says fuck you to Barr.
    Going to be interesting to see how it pans out, since as a temporary appointment, he was appointed by judges, not the President.
    That's the legal basis of the fuck you.

    Possibly Trump could fire him but that would open up Trump to liability.
  • ClippPClippP Posts: 267
    Scott_xP said:

    Before we get all smug about Trump's gross misdemeanors in office, don't forget about his protege, BoZo

    Boris Johnson has delayed the formation of parliament’s intelligence watchdog after removing a provisional member for disloyalty.

    The government has been questioned over why the intelligence and security select committee has yet to be reconvened more than six months after the election. Other select committees that scrutinise departments have been working for months.

    Its formation has been delayed after Theresa Villiers, the former environment secretary, was barred from joining after defying the Tory whip in a vote on food standards.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/theresa-villiers-axed-from-intelligence-committee-for-disloyalty-3gws00lt7

    During our lockdown, I have been catching up with some things, including watching for the first time Yes, Prime Minister.

    I was struck by just how closely Johnson and his gang are following the script. Some posters on here see Cummings as a cunning bastard. I see him as somebody who is just blindly carrying out its suggestions.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 2,632
    Alistair said:
    The South is just a string of Banana Republics. Reconstruction ended way too early (yes I know Kentucky fought on the Union side, but the general point still holds).
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 22,331
    Alistair said:

    Nigelb said:

    Alistair said:



    Barr attempts to fire person. Person says fuck you to Barr.
    Going to be interesting to see how it pans out, since as a temporary appointment, he was appointed by judges, not the President.
    That's the legal basis of the fuck you.

    Possibly Trump could fire him but that would open up Trump to liability.
    No, he can’t.
    The law seems clear (28 USC 546(d) ) that the temporary appointment stays in post until a replacement is confirmed. So it will require the connivance of the Senate first.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 26,675
    Alistair said:
    What a waste of time, when the race is now over.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 22,331
    Alistair said:
    Imagine this repeated in November....

    I’m sure this is completely unconnected:

    Barr echoes Trump's concerns about mail-in voting, says it could 'open the floodgates of potential fraud'
    https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/503679-barr-echoes-trumps-concerns-about-mail-in-voting-says-it-could-open
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 29,154
    Nigelb said:

    Alistair said:

    Nigelb said:

    Alistair said:



    Barr attempts to fire person. Person says fuck you to Barr.
    Going to be interesting to see how it pans out, since as a temporary appointment, he was appointed by judges, not the President.
    That's the legal basis of the fuck you.

    Possibly Trump could fire him but that would open up Trump to liability.
    No, he can’t.
    The law seems clear (28 USC 546(d) ) that the temporary appointment stays in post until a replacement is confirmed. So it will require the connivance of the Senate first.
    Unless Barr is so dim he would test his eyesight by driving to Barnard Castle, surely he would know this.

    So the question is - why did he try it? Was he ordered to, or did he genuinely think Berman would just accept it?
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 8,382
    "Trump has around five and a half months to turn things round"
    Isn't it less than that? Nov 3rd is about four and ahalf months away.
    He's got long enough to cause an uptick in Covid-19 in Tulsa.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 3,286

    Alistair said:
    The South is just a string of Banana Republics. Reconstruction ended way too early (yes I know Kentucky fought on the Union side, but the general point still holds).
    This is the why of BLM. Does your life matter to those in charge if they can treat you as second class in this way?

    BLM is about more than being shot or choked by the local coppers. It is about getting rid of the existing Jim Crow attitudes in large swathes of the US
  • FishingFishing Posts: 969
    Good thread and I agree with David that 4/1 seems a value bet. Obviously it wouldn't happen till after the election.

    I think there's a lot of wishful thinking about the likelihood of Trump losing, though, just as there was four years ago. Predicting Amercan elections before the public starts focusing on them durnig or after the conventions is a mug's game, especially now with the uncertainty caused by Chinese flu.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 22,331
    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    Alistair said:

    Nigelb said:

    Alistair said:



    Barr attempts to fire person. Person says fuck you to Barr.
    Going to be interesting to see how it pans out, since as a temporary appointment, he was appointed by judges, not the President.
    That's the legal basis of the fuck you.

    Possibly Trump could fire him but that would open up Trump to liability.
    No, he can’t.
    The law seems clear (28 USC 546(d) ) that the temporary appointment stays in post until a replacement is confirmed. So it will require the connivance of the Senate first.
    Unless Barr is so dim he would test his eyesight by driving to Barnard Castle, surely he would know this.

    So the question is - why did he try it? Was he ordered to, or did he genuinely think Berman would just accept it?
    Barr isn’t entirely stupid, just corrupt.
    It’s pretty likely he was acting at his client’s behest - he is, after all Trump’s lawyer rather than an Attorney General as normally understood. He quite effectively dealt with the Mueller investigation by grossly mischaracterising the report before it was published; the power of official bluster is considerable.
    So perhaps he thought there was a chance it could work.
    It does, after all, take quite some guts to stand up to the full power of a corrupt administration, particularly if you’re not an ideologically committed opponent. It could easily have gone the other way.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 26,675
    edited June 20
    Fishing said:

    Good thread and I agree with David that 4/1 seems a value bet. Obviously it wouldn't happen till after the election.

    I think there's a lot of wishful thinking about the likelihood of Trump losing, though, just as there was four years ago. Predicting Amercan elections before the public starts focusing on them durnig or after the conventions is a mug's game, especially now with the uncertainty caused by Chinese flu.

    This CNN piece based on interviews with three last-time Trump voters picks up some relevant issues

    https://us.cnn.com/2020/06/19/politics/van-jones-trump-voters/index.html
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 3,599
    ydoethur said:

    Unless Barr is so dim he would test his eyesight by driving to Barnard Castle, surely he would know this.

    So the question is - why did he try it? Was he ordered to, or did he genuinely think Berman would just accept it?

    You have to ask the same question of the GOP in general

    Trump is so comprehensively trashing their brand, at some point you would think some of them might try and put some distance between them, but no...
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 2,632

    Alistair said:
    The South is just a string of Banana Republics. Reconstruction ended way too early (yes I know Kentucky fought on the Union side, but the general point still holds).
    This is the why of BLM. Does your life matter to those in charge if they can treat you as second class in this way?

    BLM is about more than being shot or choked by the local coppers. It is about getting rid of the existing Jim Crow attitudes in large swathes of the US
    Yeah exactly. The crowds of people who used to attend lynchings, the people who filled their public pools with concrete rather than share them with black people, they passed their attitudes on to their kids and grandkids. It's never completely gone away. Of course over time it's got better, but too slowly. You needed a real decontamination effort like in Germany after the war.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 3,599
    Trump will probably have to pardon Barr first
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 22,331
    Congress has a Judiciary Committee hearing on Wednesday.
    Berman is being invited to testify.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 14,933
    IanB2 said:

    Alistair said:
    What a waste of time, when the race is now over.
    Not just the Dem Primary.

    There is the US Senate Primary for both GOP and Dem and there is a slate of Kentucky statewide races including judicial appointments to be voted on.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 22,331
    Alistair said:

    IanB2 said:

    Alistair said:
    What a waste of time, when the race is now over.
    Not just the Dem Primary.

    There is the US Senate Primary for both GOP and Dem and there is a slate of Kentucky statewide races including judicial appointments to be voted on.
    Quite.
    There’s also the point that making people realise now how hard it is going to be to vote, will tend to act as vote suppression in November. Hence the current effort to limit postal voting.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 22,331
    Scott_xP said:

    ydoethur said:

    Unless Barr is so dim he would test his eyesight by driving to Barnard Castle, surely he would know this.

    So the question is - why did he try it? Was he ordered to, or did he genuinely think Berman would just accept it?

    You have to ask the same question of the GOP in general

    Trump is so comprehensively trashing their brand, at some point you would think some of them might try and put some distance between them, but no...
    They have tied themselves to Trump, and there is no easy way out for most of them:

    https://www.politico.com/news/2020/06/19/trump-interview-mail-voting-329307
    ... Trump is keenly aware of how he stacks up against other Republicans on the ballot this fall. At one point during the interview, White House Political Director Brian Jack handed the president a document showing how he had fared better in several primaries this spring than a handful of Republican senators he shared the ballot with in their home states. Included on the chart was North Carolina Sen. Thom Tillis, one of the most vulnerable Republican incumbents up for reelection this November. While Tillis received 78 percent in the state's March primary, Trump got 94 percent, it noted.

    "Wow, that’s great in North Carolina, huh?" Trump remarked as he looked over the sheet....
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 3,599
    Nigelb said:

    They have tied themselves to Trump, and there is no easy way out for most of them:

    The prisoners' dilemma

    When Trump is fully investigated without the protection of Barr, all sorts of stuff is going to come out.

    The earliest Republicans to distance themselves will have an advantage
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 33,796
    "The largest hospital trust in England has become the first to declare it has no Covid-19 patients requiring treatment in intensive care.

    Dr David Rosser, who heads the University Hospitals Birmingham NHS Foundation Trust (UHB), said there were signs that infected patients “don’t seem as sick, on average, as they were”. "

    (Telegraph)
  • coachcoach Posts: 186

    Alistair said:
    The South is just a string of Banana Republics. Reconstruction ended way too early (yes I know Kentucky fought on the Union side, but the general point still holds).
    This is the why of BLM. Does your life matter to those in charge if they can treat you as second class in this way?

    BLM is about more than being shot or choked by the local coppers. It is about getting rid of the existing Jim Crow attitudes in large swathes of the US
    Yeah exactly. The crowds of people who used to attend lynchings, the people who filled their public pools with concrete rather than share them with black people, they passed their attitudes on to their kids and grandkids. It's never completely gone away. Of course over time it's got better, but too slowly. You needed a real decontamination effort like in Germany after the war.
    I wonder if BLM is helping or just confirming attitudes
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 54,582
    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    Alistair said:

    Nigelb said:

    Alistair said:



    Barr attempts to fire person. Person says fuck you to Barr.
    Going to be interesting to see how it pans out, since as a temporary appointment, he was appointed by judges, not the President.
    That's the legal basis of the fuck you.

    Possibly Trump could fire him but that would open up Trump to liability.
    No, he can’t.
    The law seems clear (28 USC 546(d) ) that the temporary appointment stays in post until a replacement is confirmed. So it will require the connivance of the Senate first.
    Unless Barr is so dim he would test his eyesight by driving to Barnard Castle, surely he would know this.

    So the question is - why did he try it? Was he ordered to, or did he genuinely think Berman would just accept it?
    The former I expect. Although a lot of people have just accepted Trumps commands including senators, when you'd think they would not. Some of them act like hes more of a king than a king!
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 14,933
    coach said:

    Alistair said:
    The South is just a string of Banana Republics. Reconstruction ended way too early (yes I know Kentucky fought on the Union side, but the general point still holds).
    This is the why of BLM. Does your life matter to those in charge if they can treat you as second class in this way?

    BLM is about more than being shot or choked by the local coppers. It is about getting rid of the existing Jim Crow attitudes in large swathes of the US
    Yeah exactly. The crowds of people who used to attend lynchings, the people who filled their public pools with concrete rather than share them with black people, they passed their attitudes on to their kids and grandkids. It's never completely gone away. Of course over time it's got better, but too slowly. You needed a real decontamination effort like in Germany after the war.
    I wonder if BLM is helping or just confirming attitudes
    Gee, I 'wonder' what your opinions are.

    Three years ago 25% of Americans supported BLM, now it is 52%.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 33,796
    Susan Rice calls Trump administration 'racist to its core,' says Senate backers belong in 'trash heap of history'

    https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/503671-susan-rice-calls-trump-administration-racist-to-its-core-says-senate

    Still in running for Veep.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 3,286
    edited June 20
    Scott_xP said:

    twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1274259320113451013

    "Nobody mentioned that Dominic Cummings could have had something to do with it"

    Surely that should read "Nobody dared to mention that Dominic Cummings could have had something to do with it". Spineless lackeys...
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 33,796

    Scott_xP said:

    twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1274259320113451013

    "Nobody mentioned that Dominic Cummings could have had something to do with it"

    Surely that should read "Nobody dared to mention that Dominic Cummings could have had something to do with it". Spineless lackeys...

    "I'm only a Cabinet Minister!"

    (The Thick of It.)
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 3,286

    Susan Rice calls Trump administration 'racist to its core,' says Senate backers belong in 'trash heap of history'

    https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/503671-susan-rice-calls-trump-administration-racist-to-its-core-says-senate

    Still in running for Veep.

    I like her attitude. IMO, it helps that she is right about Trump and his supporters ;)
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 22,331
    kle4 said:

    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    Alistair said:

    Nigelb said:

    Alistair said:



    Barr attempts to fire person. Person says fuck you to Barr.
    Going to be interesting to see how it pans out, since as a temporary appointment, he was appointed by judges, not the President.
    That's the legal basis of the fuck you.

    Possibly Trump could fire him but that would open up Trump to liability.
    No, he can’t.
    The law seems clear (28 USC 546(d) ) that the temporary appointment stays in post until a replacement is confirmed. So it will require the connivance of the Senate first.
    Unless Barr is so dim he would test his eyesight by driving to Barnard Castle, surely he would know this.

    So the question is - why did he try it? Was he ordered to, or did he genuinely think Berman would just accept it?
    The former I expect. Although a lot of people have just accepted Trumps commands including senators, when you'd think they would not. Some of them act like hes more of a king than a king!
    Barr is a Catholic fundamentalist, and like Pence and others in the administration is committed to an ideological project which requires a Republican president with expansive powers. They wouldn’t have chosen Trump, but he’s what they have.

    The Applebaum article remains by far and away the best commentary:
    https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2020/07/trumps-collaborators/612250/

    Reading her conclusion, I can only reflect that decency is in short supply in the Republican corridors of power...
    ... In the meantime, I leave anyone who has the bad luck to be in public life at this moment with a final thought from Władysław Bartoszewski, who was a member of the wartime Polish underground, a prisoner of both the Nazis and the Stalinists, and then, finally, the foreign minister in two Polish democratic governments. Late in his life—he lived to be 93—he summed up the philosophy that had guided him through all of these tumultuous political changes. It was not idealism that drove him, or big ideas, he said. It was this: Warto być przyzwoitym—“Just try to be decent.” Whether you were decent—that’s what will be remembered.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 6,036
    Scott_xP said:
    Falling poll numbers from 45% to 43% after 10 years in government.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 969

    Scott_xP said:

    twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1274259320113451013

    "Nobody mentioned that Dominic Cummings could have had something to do with it"

    Surely that should read "Nobody dared to mention that Dominic Cummings could have had something to do with it". Spineless lackeys...

    "I'm only a Cabinet Minister!"

    (The Thick of It.)
    In my experience, nobody feels more powerless and buffeted by events than people at the top.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 5,613
    Andy_JS said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Falling poll numbers from 45% to 43% after 10 years in government.
    I thought bluekip had disowned the Cameron and May years as hard left infiltrators and EU quislings?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 33,017

    Scott_xP said:

    twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1274259320113451013

    "Nobody mentioned that Dominic Cummings could have had something to do with it"

    Surely that should read "Nobody dared to mention that Dominic Cummings could have had something to do with it". Spineless lackeys...
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 19,536
    edited June 20
    I've been reading about the Wirecard fiasco this morning. The German regulator has had an absolute shocker. The FCA is a flawed organisation for sure, but on this evidence it seems wonderful compared to BaFin. The FT alerted readers to a potential multi billion fraud at the company, instead of investigating the claims of fraud, the German regulator investigated the FT and took them to court under the pretence of destabilising a financial corporation and the the journalists being linked to hedge funds based in London who had multiple short positions on Wirecard.

    It's quite possibly the worst regulatory response to a claim of mega fraud I've seen, @Cyclefree may have seen worse though.

    Genuinely shocked at how BaFin closed ranks and protected it's own instead of getting to the bottom of fraud allegations that are now going to sink the company and has damaged the German financial sector and their reputation.

    Frankfurt, definitely not going to be where investors go with their billions on this evidence.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 4,288
    Andy_JS said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Falling poll numbers from 45% to 43% after 10 years in government.
    That isn't quite the whole story. From post lockdown poll numbers in the fifties for the Conservatives, the direction of travel has been trending southbound since the Cummings episode.

    Back on topic. The voter suppression device in Kentucky could be a handy dry run for November in Red marginal states.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 4,288
    Scott_xP said:
    When Spicer came out with his Boris buses sketch, it was hilarious.

    Subsequent attempts seem tired by comparison.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 5,053
    Scott_xP said:
    Hagbard Celine's Second Law in action...

    Accurate communication is possible only in a non-punishing situation.
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 2,694
    kinabalu said:

    Donald Trump. What a jerk. I’ve been posting for ages that he is heading for the rocks and thank god it looks like I’m right again. Of course I do not (despite my almost spooky record) expect people to take my calls on blind trust. I owe it to the site to provide a killer exposition of why Trump is toast. Let’s start with what he must hold to have a chance of re-election – the Rust Belt.

    So if you’re like me the first thing you think of when hearing that term is the motion picture, The Deer Hunter. We’ve all seen it. It’s a modern classic. It was on again last week and I watched it, this time with a focus not on the plot and the dialogue – which I know backwards – but on what it tells us about this year’s presidential election.

    It’s set in Pennsylvania where Trump is defending a margin of 0.72%. Polls have him losing it but we don’t need polls when we can listen to real flesh & blood residents of the state and we have a solid sample of them here. We have Michael (Robert de Niro), Nick (Christopher Walken), Stevie (John Savage), Fredo (John Cazale), and of course Linda (Meryl Streep). Blue collar. Steel. Backbone of America. Woke? Give me a break.

    In 2016 they voted as follows. Linda for Clinton (swayed by pussygate). Fredo for Trump (also influenced by pussygate – at last a politician he could relate to). Walken and Stevie for Trump (jobs mainly plus time for something different). De Niro, as one would expect, saw through the Donald, could see he was a phony, but felt Hillary Clinton had nothing to say to people like him. So despite being interested in politics, he didn’t vote. He went hunting in the mountains (for deer) instead.

    So what do they plan to do in 2020? Have they made their minds up yet? Turns out they have and the results are striking.

    Linda and Fredo are unchanged and further entrenched. She hates Trump with a passion, he is looking forward to the rallies and breaking out his cap again. Since his accident at the plant which left him in a wheelchair Stevie has become a rather serious-minded person. In particular he no longer finds Donald Trump remotely funny. He’s had his fill of him and will be voting Dem. As will Walken, who is bitterly disappointed by Trump’s response to the coronavirus. “Shit, the guy can’t tell his ass from his windpipe,” as he put it. De Niro smirks and nods at that. But Biden looks like a crock of shit to him so once more, his interest in politics notwithstanding, he won’t be voting. Plans to spend polling day as he did in 2016 – up in the mountains shooting deer.

    Scores on the doors. In 2016 this group delivered 3 votes for Trump and 1 for Clinton. In 2020 it’s the exact opposite, 3 for Biden and only 1 for Trump. Just Fredo with his MAGA gear and conspiracy theories about “lizards” and “globalists” and all the rest of it. The basest of the base.

    Conclusion? Too obvious to bother spelling out beyond “landslide”.

    Nap of the day. You can back Biden to take Penn at 1.65. There are worse bets. :smile:

    Brilliant stuff, Kinabalu. Entirely persuasive. Might I suggest for a future analysis, you could talk us through the next London Assembly elections through the prism of Love Actually?
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 5,053
    kinabalu said:

    Donald Trump. What a jerk. I’ve been posting for ages that he is heading for the rocks and thank god it looks like I’m right again. Of course I do not (despite my almost spooky record) expect people to take my calls on blind trust. I owe it to the site to provide a killer exposition of why Trump is toast. Let’s start with what he must hold to have a chance of re-election – the Rust Belt.

    So if you’re like me the first thing you think of when hearing that term is the motion picture, The Deer Hunter. We’ve all seen it. It’s a modern classic. It was on again last week and I watched it, this time with a focus not on the plot and the dialogue – which I know backwards – but on what it tells us about this year’s presidential election.

    It’s set in Pennsylvania where Trump is defending a margin of 0.72%. Polls have him losing it but we don’t need polls when we can listen to real flesh & blood residents of the state and we have a solid sample of them here. We have Michael (Robert de Niro), Nick (Christopher Walken), Stevie (John Savage), Fredo (John Cazale), and of course Linda (Meryl Streep). Blue collar. Steel. Backbone of America. Woke? Give me a break.

    In 2016 they voted as follows. Linda for Clinton (swayed by pussygate). Fredo for Trump (also influenced by pussygate – at last a politician he could relate to). Walken and Stevie for Trump (jobs mainly plus time for something different). De Niro, as one would expect, saw through the Donald, could see he was a phony, but felt Hillary Clinton had nothing to say to people like him. So despite being interested in politics, he didn’t vote. He went hunting in the mountains (for deer) instead.

    So what do they plan to do in 2020? Have they made their minds up yet? Turns out they have and the results are striking.

    Linda and Fredo are unchanged and further entrenched. She hates Trump with a passion, he is looking forward to the rallies and breaking out his cap again. Since his accident at the plant which left him in a wheelchair Stevie has become a rather serious-minded person. In particular he no longer finds Donald Trump remotely funny. He’s had his fill of him and will be voting Dem. As will Walken, who is bitterly disappointed by Trump’s response to the coronavirus. “Shit, the guy can’t tell his ass from his windpipe,” as he put it. De Niro smirks and nods at that. But Biden looks like a crock of shit to him so once more, his interest in politics notwithstanding, he won’t be voting. Plans to spend polling day as he did in 2016 – up in the mountains shooting deer.

    Scores on the doors. In 2016 this group delivered 3 votes for Trump and 1 for Clinton. In 2020 it’s the exact opposite, 3 for Biden and only 1 for Trump. Just Fredo with his MAGA gear and conspiracy theories about “lizards” and “globalists” and all the rest of it. The basest of the base.

    Conclusion? Too obvious to bother spelling out beyond “landslide”.

    Nap of the day. You can back Biden to take Penn at 1.65. There are worse bets. :smile:

    This was very good and should have been a header. Now do the the 2024 UK GE in terms of Carry on Camping.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 18,829
    Dura_Ace said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Hagbard Celine's Second Law in action...

    Accurate communication is possible only in a non-punishing situation.
    Bit like something Truman is alleged to have said 'It's amazing what can get done if no-one's bothered about who gets the credit for it!'.
    Or something like that.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 969
    kinabalu said:

    Donald Trump. What a jerk. I’ve been posting for ages that he is heading for the rocks and thank god it looks like I’m right again. Of course I do not (despite my almost spooky record) expect people to take my calls on blind trust. I owe it to the site to provide a killer exposition of why Trump is toast. Let’s start with what he must hold to have a chance of re-election – the Rust Belt.

    So if you’re like me the first thing you think of when hearing that term is the motion picture, The Deer Hunter. We’ve all seen it. It’s a modern classic. It was on again last week and I watched it, this time with a focus not on the plot and the dialogue – which I know backwards – but on what it tells us about this year’s presidential election.

    It’s set in Pennsylvania where Trump is defending a margin of 0.72%. Polls have him losing it but we don’t need polls when we can listen to real flesh & blood residents of the state and we have a solid sample of them here. We have Michael (Robert de Niro), Nick (Christopher Walken), Stevie (John Savage), Fredo (John Cazale), and of course Linda (Meryl Streep). Blue collar. Steel. Backbone of America. Woke? Give me a break.

    In 2016 they voted as follows. Linda for Clinton (swayed by pussygate). Fredo for Trump (also influenced by pussygate – at last a politician he could relate to). Walken and Stevie for Trump (jobs mainly plus time for something different). De Niro, as one would expect, saw through the Donald, could see he was a phony, but felt Hillary Clinton had nothing to say to people like him. So despite being interested in politics, he didn’t vote. He went hunting in the mountains (for deer) instead.

    So what do they plan to do in 2020? Have they made their minds up yet? Turns out they have and the results are striking.

    Linda and Fredo are unchanged and further entrenched. She hates Trump with a passion, he is looking forward to the rallies and breaking out his cap again. Since his accident at the plant which left him in a wheelchair Stevie has become a rather serious-minded person. In particular he no longer finds Donald Trump remotely funny. He’s had his fill of him and will be voting Dem. As will Walken, who is bitterly disappointed by Trump’s response to the coronavirus. “Shit, the guy can’t tell his ass from his windpipe,” as he put it. De Niro smirks and nods at that. But Biden looks like a crock of shit to him so once more, his interest in politics notwithstanding, he won’t be voting. Plans to spend polling day as he did in 2016 – up in the mountains shooting deer.

    Scores on the doors. In 2016 this group delivered 3 votes for Trump and 1 for Clinton. In 2020 it’s the exact opposite, 3 for Biden and only 1 for Trump. Just Fredo with his MAGA gear and conspiracy theories about “lizards” and “globalists” and all the rest of it. The basest of the base.

    Conclusion? Too obvious to bother spelling out beyond “landslide”.

    Nap of the day. You can back Biden to take Penn at 1.65. There are worse bets. :smile:



    I haven't actually seen the Deer Hunter, but am thinking that November might conceivably be more like another Pennsylvania-based movie - Groundhog Day.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 17,386

    Andy_JS said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Falling poll numbers from 45% to 43% after 10 years in government.
    That isn't quite the whole story. From post lockdown poll numbers in the fifties for the Conservatives, the direction of travel has been trending southbound since the Cummings episode.
    Anything above 45% was, is and always will be froth.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 2,632
    kinabalu said:

    Donald Trump. What a jerk. I’ve been posting for ages that he is heading for the rocks and thank god it looks like I’m right again. Of course I do not (despite my almost spooky record) expect people to take my calls on blind trust. I owe it to the site to provide a killer exposition of why Trump is toast. Let’s start with what he must hold to have a chance of re-election – the Rust Belt.

    So if you’re like me the first thing you think of when hearing that term is the motion picture, The Deer Hunter. We’ve all seen it. It’s a modern classic. It was on again last week and I watched it, this time with a focus not on the plot and the dialogue – which I know backwards – but on what it tells us about this year’s presidential election.

    It’s set in Pennsylvania where Trump is defending a margin of 0.72%. Polls have him losing it but we don’t need polls when we can listen to real flesh & blood residents of the state and we have a solid sample of them here. We have Michael (Robert de Niro), Nick (Christopher Walken), Stevie (John Savage), Fredo (John Cazale), and of course Linda (Meryl Streep). Blue collar. Steel. Backbone of America. Woke? Give me a break.

    In 2016 they voted as follows. Linda for Clinton (swayed by pussygate). Fredo for Trump (also influenced by pussygate – at last a politician he could relate to). Walken and Stevie for Trump (jobs mainly plus time for something different). De Niro, as one would expect, saw through the Donald, could see he was a phony, but felt Hillary Clinton had nothing to say to people like him. So despite being interested in politics, he didn’t vote. He went hunting in the mountains (for deer) instead.

    So what do they plan to do in 2020? Have they made their minds up yet? Turns out they have and the results are striking.

    Linda and Fredo are unchanged and further entrenched. She hates Trump with a passion, he is looking forward to the rallies and breaking out his cap again. Since his accident at the plant which left him in a wheelchair Stevie has become a rather serious-minded person. In particular he no longer finds Donald Trump remotely funny. He’s had his fill of him and will be voting Dem. As will Walken, who is bitterly disappointed by Trump’s response to the coronavirus. “Shit, the guy can’t tell his ass from his windpipe,” as he put it. De Niro smirks and nods at that. But Biden looks like a crock of shit to him so once more, his interest in politics notwithstanding, he won’t be voting. Plans to spend polling day as he did in 2016 – up in the mountains shooting deer.

    Scores on the doors. In 2016 this group delivered 3 votes for Trump and 1 for Clinton. In 2020 it’s the exact opposite, 3 for Biden and only 1 for Trump. Just Fredo with his MAGA gear and conspiracy theories about “lizards” and “globalists” and all the rest of it. The basest of the base.

    Conclusion? Too obvious to bother spelling out beyond “landslide”.

    Nap of the day. You can back Biden to take Penn at 1.65. There are worse bets. :smile:

    Very persuasive, although I've never seen the film. Is it any good? Has a stellar cast.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 17,386

    "The largest hospital trust in England has become the first to declare it has no Covid-19 patients requiring treatment in intensive care.

    Dr David Rosser, who heads the University Hospitals Birmingham NHS Foundation Trust (UHB), said there were signs that infected patients “don’t seem as sick, on average, as they were”. "

    (Telegraph)

    If infected people are now going to hospital sooner than they were in April then they will be.

    Telling people to stay at home to 'protect the NHS' was the wrong strategy.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 2,632

    kinabalu said:

    Donald Trump. What a jerk. I’ve been posting for ages that he is heading for the rocks and thank god it looks like I’m right again. Of course I do not (despite my almost spooky record) expect people to take my calls on blind trust. I owe it to the site to provide a killer exposition of why Trump is toast. Let’s start with what he must hold to have a chance of re-election – the Rust Belt.

    So if you’re like me the first thing you think of when hearing that term is the motion picture, The Deer Hunter. We’ve all seen it. It’s a modern classic. It was on again last week and I watched it, this time with a focus not on the plot and the dialogue – which I know backwards – but on what it tells us about this year’s presidential election.

    It’s set in Pennsylvania where Trump is defending a margin of 0.72%. Polls have him losing it but we don’t need polls when we can listen to real flesh & blood residents of the state and we have a solid sample of them here. We have Michael (Robert de Niro), Nick (Christopher Walken), Stevie (John Savage), Fredo (John Cazale), and of course Linda (Meryl Streep). Blue collar. Steel. Backbone of America. Woke? Give me a break.

    In 2016 they voted as follows. Linda for Clinton (swayed by pussygate). Fredo for Trump (also influenced by pussygate – at last a politician he could relate to). Walken and Stevie for Trump (jobs mainly plus time for something different). De Niro, as one would expect, saw through the Donald, could see he was a phony, but felt Hillary Clinton had nothing to say to people like him. So despite being interested in politics, he didn’t vote. He went hunting in the mountains (for deer) instead.

    So what do they plan to do in 2020? Have they made their minds up yet? Turns out they have and the results are striking.

    Linda and Fredo are unchanged and further entrenched. She hates Trump with a passion, he is looking forward to the rallies and breaking out his cap again. Since his accident at the plant which left him in a wheelchair Stevie has become a rather serious-minded person. In particular he no longer finds Donald Trump remotely funny. He’s had his fill of him and will be voting Dem. As will Walken, who is bitterly disappointed by Trump’s response to the coronavirus. “Shit, the guy can’t tell his ass from his windpipe,” as he put it. De Niro smirks and nods at that. But Biden looks like a crock of shit to him so once more, his interest in politics notwithstanding, he won’t be voting. Plans to spend polling day as he did in 2016 – up in the mountains shooting deer.

    Scores on the doors. In 2016 this group delivered 3 votes for Trump and 1 for Clinton. In 2020 it’s the exact opposite, 3 for Biden and only 1 for Trump. Just Fredo with his MAGA gear and conspiracy theories about “lizards” and “globalists” and all the rest of it. The basest of the base.

    Conclusion? Too obvious to bother spelling out beyond “landslide”.

    Nap of the day. You can back Biden to take Penn at 1.65. There are worse bets. :smile:

    Brilliant stuff, Kinabalu. Entirely persuasive. Might I suggest for a future analysis, you could talk us through the next London Assembly elections through the prism of Love Actually?
    Please nobody mention Love Actually, the worst film ever made.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 4,288



    Andy_JS said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Falling poll numbers from 45% to 43% after 10 years in government.
    That isn't quite the whole story. From post lockdown poll numbers in the fifties for the Conservatives, the direction of travel has been trending southbound since the Cummings episode.
    Anything above 45% was, is and always will be froth.
    It wasn't on here at the time. Fifty percent plus was mark of Johnson's invincibility and a breakthrough widely celebrated.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 4,885



    Trump ... What's he got to lose?

    Pride

    You're both applying your own moral code to a man that has none. He will never admit he has done anything that requires pardoning.

    Bet away but Shadsy will be the one having the last laugh on this one I fear.
    Disagree, I think you're applying the moral code of someone who cares about intellectual consistency.
    Hmmm.

    Using "moral code", "intellectual" and "consistency" in a sentence referring to Donald Trump.

    naaaaaahhhhhhhhhh.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 3,599

    Please nobody mention Love Actually, the worst film ever made.

    A useless fop as PM who wants to shag his assistant?

    Sounds terrible...
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 4,885

    Alistair said:
    The South is just a string of Banana Republics. Reconstruction ended way too early (yes I know Kentucky fought on the Union side, but the general point still holds).
    This is the why of BLM. Does your life matter to those in charge if they can treat you as second class in this way?

    BLM is about more than being shot or choked by the local coppers. It is about getting rid of the existing Jim Crow attitudes in large swathes of the US
    One of the ironic things about Reconstruction.

    Because of the end of slavery, the 3/5ths rule was rescinded. So the electoral power of the Southern states was increased.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 19,536



    Andy_JS said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Falling poll numbers from 45% to 43% after 10 years in government.
    That isn't quite the whole story. From post lockdown poll numbers in the fifties for the Conservatives, the direction of travel has been trending southbound since the Cummings episode.
    Anything above 45% was, is and always will be froth.
    True, and until January I think 40-42% is the baseline. After January loads of votes suddenly start looking for somewhere to go.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 33,814
    Andy_JS said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Falling poll numbers from 45% to 43% after 10 years in government.
    Yesterday on 5 live they reported that a single mother with 2 children, who is shielding, was so furious with Cummings trip that she penned a letter to him and hand delivered it to the policeman on duty at Cummings private home.

    As she left she thought that she would hear no more.

    However, two days later she received a reply from Cummings which she was pleased and surprised with. A little while later Boris introduced the bubble.

    Maybe Cummings is not all bad, but Boris should not have allowed him to stay in post and he has taken a huge hit for his bad judgement
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 4,288
    Do I sense a Peter Temple-Morris moment between now and polling day?
  • TresTres Posts: 97
    MaxPB said:

    I've been reading about the Wirecard fiasco this morning. The German regulator has had an absolute shocker. The FCA is a flawed organisation for sure, but on this evidence it seems wonderful compared to BaFin. The FT alerted readers to a potential multi billion fraud at the company, instead of investigating the claims of fraud, the German regulator investigated the FT and took them to court under the pretence of destabilising a financial corporation and the the journalists being linked to hedge funds based in London who had multiple short positions on Wirecard.

    It's quite possibly the worst regulatory response to a claim of mega fraud I've seen, @Cyclefree may have seen worse though.

    Genuinely shocked at how BaFin closed ranks and protected it's own instead of getting to the bottom of fraud allegations that are now going to sink the company and has damaged the German financial sector and their reputation.

    Frankfurt, definitely not going to be where investors go with their billions on this evidence.

    Dan McCrum's reports on this have been outstanding. BaFin are pretty clueless and toothless, the ACPR are miles better, even if they have one rule for French-owned entitites and another rule for the rest.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 17,386
    kinabalu said:

    Donald Trump. What a jerk. I’ve been posting for ages that he is heading for the rocks and thank god it looks like I’m right again. Of course I do not (despite my almost spooky record) expect people to take my calls on blind trust. I owe it to the site to provide a killer exposition of why Trump is toast. Let’s start with what he must hold to have a chance of re-election – the Rust Belt.

    So if you’re like me the first thing you think of when hearing that term is the motion picture, The Deer Hunter. We’ve all seen it. It’s a modern classic. It was on again last week and I watched it, this time with a focus not on the plot and the dialogue – which I know backwards – but on what it tells us about this year’s presidential election.

    It’s set in Pennsylvania where Trump is defending a margin of 0.72%. Polls have him losing it but we don’t need polls when we can listen to real flesh & blood residents of the state and we have a solid sample of them here. We have Michael (Robert de Niro), Nick (Christopher Walken), Stevie (John Savage), Fredo (John Cazale), and of course Linda (Meryl Streep). Blue collar. Steel. Backbone of America. Woke? Give me a break.

    In 2016 they voted as follows. Linda for Clinton (swayed by pussygate). Fredo for Trump (also influenced by pussygate – at last a politician he could relate to). Walken and Stevie for Trump (jobs mainly plus time for something different). De Niro, as one would expect, saw through the Donald, could see he was a phony, but felt Hillary Clinton had nothing to say to people like him. So despite being interested in politics, he didn’t vote. He went hunting in the mountains (for deer) instead.

    So what do they plan to do in 2020? Have they made their minds up yet? Turns out they have and the results are striking.

    Linda and Fredo are unchanged and further entrenched. She hates Trump with a passion, he is looking forward to the rallies and breaking out his cap again. Since his accident at the plant which left him in a wheelchair Stevie has become a rather serious-minded person. In particular he no longer finds Donald Trump remotely funny. He’s had his fill of him and will be voting Dem. As will Walken, who is bitterly disappointed by Trump’s response to the coronavirus. “Shit, the guy can’t tell his ass from his windpipe,” as he put it. De Niro smirks and nods at that. But Biden looks like a crock of shit to him so once more, his interest in politics notwithstanding, he won’t be voting. Plans to spend polling day as he did in 2016 – up in the mountains shooting deer.

    Scores on the doors. In 2016 this group delivered 3 votes for Trump and 1 for Clinton. In 2020 it’s the exact opposite, 3 for Biden and only 1 for Trump. Just Fredo with his MAGA gear and conspiracy theories about “lizards” and “globalists” and all the rest of it. The basest of the base.

    Conclusion? Too obvious to bother spelling out beyond “landslide”.

    Nap of the day. You can back Biden to take Penn at 1.65. There are worse bets. :smile:

    But what about Axel ? He's the key character as he's a real person:

    Chuck Aspegren as Peter "Axel" Axelrod. Aspegren was not an actor; he was the foreman at an East Chicago steelworks visited early in pre-production by De Niro and Cimino. They were so impressed with him that they offered him the role. He was the second person to be cast in the film, after De Niro.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 26,617
    MaxPB said:

    I've been reading about the Wirecard fiasco this morning. The German regulator has had an absolute shocker. The FCA is a flawed organisation for sure, but on this evidence it seems wonderful compared to BaFin. The FT alerted readers to a potential multi billion fraud at the company, instead of investigating the claims of fraud, the German regulator investigated the FT and took them to court under the pretence of destabilising a financial corporation and the the journalists being linked to hedge funds based in London who had multiple short positions on Wirecard.

    It's quite possibly the worst regulatory response to a claim of mega fraud I've seen, @Cyclefree may have seen worse though.

    Genuinely shocked at how BaFin closed ranks and protected it's own instead of getting to the bottom of fraud allegations that are now going to sink the company and has damaged the German financial sector and their reputation.

    Frankfurt, definitely not going to be where investors go with their billions on this evidence.

    But, but, but Frankfurt is going to be the centre of the post-Brexit EU finance industry, with everyone abandoning London and putting their trillions in the hands of BaFin.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 4,885
    kinabalu said:

    Donald Trump. What a jerk. I’ve been posting for ages that he is heading for the rocks and thank god it looks like I’m right again. Of course I do not (despite my almost spooky record) expect people to take my calls on blind trust. I owe it to the site to provide a killer exposition of why Trump is toast. Let’s start with what he must hold to have a chance of re-election – the Rust Belt.

    So if you’re like me the first thing you think of when hearing that term is the motion picture, The Deer Hunter. We’ve all seen it. It’s a modern classic. It was on again last week and I watched it, this time with a focus not on the plot and the dialogue – which I know backwards – but on what it tells us about this year’s presidential election.

    It’s set in Pennsylvania where Trump is defending a margin of 0.72%. Polls have him losing it but we don’t need polls when we can listen to real flesh & blood residents of the state and we have a solid sample of them here. We have Michael (Robert de Niro), Nick (Christopher Walken), Stevie (John Savage), Fredo (John Cazale), and of course Linda (Meryl Streep). Blue collar. Steel. Backbone of America. Woke? Give me a break.

    In 2016 they voted as follows. Linda for Clinton (swayed by pussygate). Fredo for Trump (also influenced by pussygate – at last a politician he could relate to). Walken and Stevie for Trump (jobs mainly plus time for something different). De Niro, as one would expect, saw through the Donald, could see he was a phony, but felt Hillary Clinton had nothing to say to people like him. So despite being interested in politics, he didn’t vote. He went hunting in the mountains (for deer) instead.

    So what do they plan to do in 2020? Have they made their minds up yet? Turns out they have and the results are striking.

    Linda and Fredo are unchanged and further entrenched. She hates Trump with a passion, he is looking forward to the rallies and breaking out his cap again. Since his accident at the plant which left him in a wheelchair Stevie has become a rather serious-minded person. In particular he no longer finds Donald Trump remotely funny. He’s had his fill of him and will be voting Dem. As will Walken, who is bitterly disappointed by Trump’s response to the coronavirus. “Shit, the guy can’t tell his ass from his windpipe,” as he put it. De Niro smirks and nods at that. But Biden looks like a crock of shit to him so once more, his interest in politics notwithstanding, he won’t be voting. Plans to spend polling day as he did in 2016 – up in the mountains shooting deer.

    Scores on the doors. In 2016 this group delivered 3 votes for Trump and 1 for Clinton. In 2020 it’s the exact opposite, 3 for Biden and only 1 for Trump. Just Fredo with his MAGA gear and conspiracy theories about “lizards” and “globalists” and all the rest of it. The basest of the base.

    Conclusion? Too obvious to bother spelling out beyond “landslide”.

    Nap of the day. You can back Biden to take Penn at 1.65. There are worse bets. :smile:

    The problem with this, is that you have your examples making (semi) rational decisions. The Trump block is all about "gut" voting.

    That being said, the poll strongly suggest that a chunk of his core vote has gone.

    At least for the purposes of answering polls.

    The worry now is that we are seeing "Shy Trump" voting intentions.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 4,288

    Andy_JS said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Falling poll numbers from 45% to 43% after 10 years in government.
    Yesterday on 5 live they reported that a single mother with 2 children, who is shielding, was so furious with Cummings trip that she penned a letter to him and hand delivered it to the policeman on duty at Cummings private home.

    As she left she thought that she would hear no more.

    However, two days later she received a reply from Cummings which she was pleased and surprised with. A little while later Boris introduced the bubble.

    Maybe Cummings is not all bad, but Boris should not have allowed him to stay in post and he has taken a huge hit for his bad judgement
    I don't think this story was broken to benefit Cummings and Johnson. I suspect it tells a different tale depending on which side of the partisan fence one sits.
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 2,694

    kinabalu said:

    Donald Trump. What a jerk. I’ve been posting for ages that he is heading for the rocks and thank god it looks like I’m right again. Of course I do not (despite my almost spooky record) expect people to take my calls on blind trust. I owe it to the site to provide a killer exposition of why Trump is toast. Let’s start with what he must hold to have a chance of re-election – the Rust Belt.

    So if you’re like me the first thing you think of when hearing that term is the motion picture, The Deer Hunter. We’ve all seen it. It’s a modern classic. It was on again last week and I watched it, this time with a focus not on the plot and the dialogue – which I know backwards – but on what it tells us about this year’s presidential election.

    It’s set in Pennsylvania where Trump is defending a margin of 0.72%. Polls have him losing it but we don’t need polls when we can listen to real flesh & blood residents of the state and we have a solid sample of them here. We have Michael (Robert de Niro), Nick (Christopher Walken), Stevie (John Savage), Fredo (John Cazale), and of course Linda (Meryl Streep). Blue collar. Steel. Backbone of America. Woke? Give me a break.

    In 2016 they voted as follows. Linda for Clinton (swayed by pussygate). Fredo for Trump (also influenced by pussygate – at last a politician he could relate to). Walken and Stevie for Trump (jobs mainly plus time for something different). De Niro, as one would expect, saw through the Donald, could see he was a phony, but felt Hillary Clinton had nothing to say to people like him. So despite being interested in politics, he didn’t vote. He went hunting in the mountains (for deer) instead.

    So what do they plan to do in 2020? Have they made their minds up yet? Turns out they have and the results are striking.

    Linda and Fredo are unchanged and further entrenched. She hates Trump with a passion, he is looking forward to the rallies and breaking out his cap again. Since his accident at the plant which left him in a wheelchair Stevie has become a rather serious-minded person. In particular he no longer finds Donald Trump remotely funny. He’s had his fill of him and will be voting Dem. As will Walken, who is bitterly disappointed by Trump’s response to the coronavirus. “Shit, the guy can’t tell his ass from his windpipe,” as he put it. De Niro smirks and nods at that. But Biden looks like a crock of shit to him so once more, his interest in politics notwithstanding, he won’t be voting. Plans to spend polling day as he did in 2016 – up in the mountains shooting deer.

    Scores on the doors. In 2016 this group delivered 3 votes for Trump and 1 for Clinton. In 2020 it’s the exact opposite, 3 for Biden and only 1 for Trump. Just Fredo with his MAGA gear and conspiracy theories about “lizards” and “globalists” and all the rest of it. The basest of the base.

    Conclusion? Too obvious to bother spelling out beyond “landslide”.

    Nap of the day. You can back Biden to take Penn at 1.65. There are worse bets. :smile:

    The problem with this, is that you have your examples making (semi) rational decisions. The Trump block is all about "gut" voting.

    That being said, the poll strongly suggest that a chunk of his core vote has gone.

    At least for the purposes of answering polls.

    The worry now is that we are seeing "Shy Trump" voting intentions.
    Trump supporters have never struck me as particularly shy.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 33,814

    Andy_JS said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Falling poll numbers from 45% to 43% after 10 years in government.
    Yesterday on 5 live they reported that a single mother with 2 children, who is shielding, was so furious with Cummings trip that she penned a letter to him and hand delivered it to the policeman on duty at Cummings private home.

    As she left she thought that she would hear no more.

    However, two days later she received a reply from Cummings which she was pleased and surprised with. A little while later Boris introduced the bubble.

    Maybe Cummings is not all bad, but Boris should not have allowed him to stay in post and he has taken a huge hit for his bad judgement
    I don't think this story was broken to benefit Cummings and Johnson. I suspect it tells a different tale depending on which side of the partisan fence one sits.
    I did not hear a political element of the story.

    It was a genuine story narrated by the single mother herself and did show how Cummings has influence over Boris
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 17,386

    Do I sense a Peter Temple-Morris moment between now and polling day?
    Warsi - never elected to anything and but lording it over the country for life.

    She makes the case for reform of the HoL all on her own.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 26,617
    Word of the day - "Processology"
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2020/06/19/rolls-royce-civil-service-has-found/
    Rather than casting the net widely at the outset, recruiting across industry and universities, deigning to copy other countries, filling in quickly for our lack of institutional experience, the system promotes its own and sticks to processology.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 5,278
    He'll pardon himself if he loses. Then when the pack come for him anyway he'll keep repeating "Presidential. Pardon." In that weird drawn out way he speaks with the sideways hand movements. And then they'll arrest him anyway and let the courts decide if his pardoning of himself for his egregious malfeasance in office is worth anything
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 17,386



    Andy_JS said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Falling poll numbers from 45% to 43% after 10 years in government.
    That isn't quite the whole story. From post lockdown poll numbers in the fifties for the Conservatives, the direction of travel has been trending southbound since the Cummings episode.
    Anything above 45% was, is and always will be froth.
    It wasn't on here at the time. Fifty percent plus was mark of Johnson's invincibility and a breakthrough widely celebrated.
    PBers get overly excited by polls especially when a party is hitting unreal extremes of one sort or another.

    But in reality anything above 45% was, is and always will be froth.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 73,082
    edited June 20



    Andy_JS said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Falling poll numbers from 45% to 43% after 10 years in government.
    That isn't quite the whole story. From post lockdown poll numbers in the fifties for the Conservatives, the direction of travel has been trending southbound since the Cummings episode.
    Anything above 45% was, is and always will be froth.
    It wasn't on here at the time. Fifty percent plus was mark of Johnson's invincibility and a breakthrough widely celebrated.
    PBers get overly excited by polls especially when a party is hitting unreal extremes of one sort or another.

    But in reality anything above 45% was, is and always will be froth.
    Heath was the last leader to get over 45% of the vote when the Tories got 46% in 1970
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 4,288

    Andy_JS said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Falling poll numbers from 45% to 43% after 10 years in government.
    Yesterday on 5 live they reported that a single mother with 2 children, who is shielding, was so furious with Cummings trip that she penned a letter to him and hand delivered it to the policeman on duty at Cummings private home.

    As she left she thought that she would hear no more.

    However, two days later she received a reply from Cummings which she was pleased and surprised with. A little while later Boris introduced the bubble.

    Maybe Cummings is not all bad, but Boris should not have allowed him to stay in post and he has taken a huge hit for his bad judgement
    I don't think this story was broken to benefit Cummings and Johnson. I suspect it tells a different tale depending on which side of the partisan fence one sits.
    I did not hear a political element of the story.

    It was a genuine story narrated by the single mother herself and did show how Cummings has influence over Boris
    I read about it a few days ago, I presume, predictably for me, in the Guardian. The nub of the story was this bubble idea was a knee-jerk reaction to the lady's plight, and the bubble was introduced without debate or scrutiny. Like I said, two polar opposite interpretations are possible from the same story.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 11,755

    kinabalu said:

    Donald Trump. What a jerk. I’ve been posting for ages that he is heading for the rocks and thank god it looks like I’m right again. Of course I do not (despite my almost spooky record) expect people to take my calls on blind trust. I owe it to the site to provide a killer exposition of why Trump is toast. Let’s start with what he must hold to have a chance of re-election – the Rust Belt.

    So if you’re like me the first thing you think of when hearing that term is the motion picture, The Deer Hunter. We’ve all seen it. It’s a modern classic. It was on again last week and I watched it, this time with a focus not on the plot and the dialogue – which I know backwards – but on what it tells us about this year’s presidential election.

    It’s set in Pennsylvania where Trump is defending a margin of 0.72%. Polls have him losing it but we don’t need polls when we can listen to real flesh & blood residents of the state and we have a solid sample of them here. We have Michael (Robert de Niro), Nick (Christopher Walken), Stevie (John Savage), Fredo (John Cazale), and of course Linda (Meryl Streep). Blue collar. Steel. Backbone of America. Woke? Give me a break.

    In 2016 they voted as follows. Linda for Clinton (swayed by pussygate). Fredo for Trump (also influenced by pussygate – at last a politician he could relate to). Walken and Stevie for Trump (jobs mainly plus time for something different). De Niro, as one would expect, saw through the Donald, could see he was a phony, but felt Hillary Clinton had nothing to say to people like him. So despite being interested in politics, he didn’t vote. He went hunting in the mountains (for deer) instead.

    So what do they plan to do in 2020? Have they made their minds up yet? Turns out they have and the results are striking.

    Linda and Fredo are unchanged and further entrenched. She hates Trump with a passion, he is looking forward to the rallies and breaking out his cap again. Since his accident at the plant which left him in a wheelchair Stevie has become a rather serious-minded person. In particular he no longer finds Donald Trump remotely funny. He’s had his fill of him and will be voting Dem. As will Walken, who is bitterly disappointed by Trump’s response to the coronavirus. “Shit, the guy can’t tell his ass from his windpipe,” as he put it. De Niro smirks and nods at that. But Biden looks like a crock of shit to him so once more, his interest in politics notwithstanding, he won’t be voting. Plans to spend polling day as he did in 2016 – up in the mountains shooting deer.

    Scores on the doors. In 2016 this group delivered 3 votes for Trump and 1 for Clinton. In 2020 it’s the exact opposite, 3 for Biden and only 1 for Trump. Just Fredo with his MAGA gear and conspiracy theories about “lizards” and “globalists” and all the rest of it. The basest of the base.

    Conclusion? Too obvious to bother spelling out beyond “landslide”.

    Nap of the day. You can back Biden to take Penn at 1.65. There are worse bets. :smile:

    Very persuasive, although I've never seen the film. Is it any good? Has a stellar cast.
    It's great. But when I watched it this last time I was conscious of how it contrasts the "civilised" 3d white characters with the "barbaric" others who are there as backdrop only. First time that has struck me. The impact of the recent debate I reckon.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 5,053
    Sandpit said:

    Word of the day - "Processology"
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2020/06/19/rolls-royce-civil-service-has-found/
    Rather than casting the net widely at the outset, recruiting across industry and universities, deigning to copy other countries, filling in quickly for our lack of institutional experience, the system promotes its own and sticks to processology.

    It's in the OED so it's a perfectly cromulent word.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 11,755

    kinabalu said:

    Donald Trump. What a jerk. I’ve been posting for ages that he is heading for the rocks and thank god it looks like I’m right again. Of course I do not (despite my almost spooky record) expect people to take my calls on blind trust. I owe it to the site to provide a killer exposition of why Trump is toast. Let’s start with what he must hold to have a chance of re-election – the Rust Belt.

    So if you’re like me the first thing you think of when hearing that term is the motion picture, The Deer Hunter. We’ve all seen it. It’s a modern classic. It was on again last week and I watched it, this time with a focus not on the plot and the dialogue – which I know backwards – but on what it tells us about this year’s presidential election.

    It’s set in Pennsylvania where Trump is defending a margin of 0.72%. Polls have him losing it but we don’t need polls when we can listen to real flesh & blood residents of the state and we have a solid sample of them here. We have Michael (Robert de Niro), Nick (Christopher Walken), Stevie (John Savage), Fredo (John Cazale), and of course Linda (Meryl Streep). Blue collar. Steel. Backbone of America. Woke? Give me a break.

    In 2016 they voted as follows. Linda for Clinton (swayed by pussygate). Fredo for Trump (also influenced by pussygate – at last a politician he could relate to). Walken and Stevie for Trump (jobs mainly plus time for something different). De Niro, as one would expect, saw through the Donald, could see he was a phony, but felt Hillary Clinton had nothing to say to people like him. So despite being interested in politics, he didn’t vote. He went hunting in the mountains (for deer) instead.

    So what do they plan to do in 2020? Have they made their minds up yet? Turns out they have and the results are striking.

    Linda and Fredo are unchanged and further entrenched. She hates Trump with a passion, he is looking forward to the rallies and breaking out his cap again. Since his accident at the plant which left him in a wheelchair Stevie has become a rather serious-minded person. In particular he no longer finds Donald Trump remotely funny. He’s had his fill of him and will be voting Dem. As will Walken, who is bitterly disappointed by Trump’s response to the coronavirus. “Shit, the guy can’t tell his ass from his windpipe,” as he put it. De Niro smirks and nods at that. But Biden looks like a crock of shit to him so once more, his interest in politics notwithstanding, he won’t be voting. Plans to spend polling day as he did in 2016 – up in the mountains shooting deer.

    Scores on the doors. In 2016 this group delivered 3 votes for Trump and 1 for Clinton. In 2020 it’s the exact opposite, 3 for Biden and only 1 for Trump. Just Fredo with his MAGA gear and conspiracy theories about “lizards” and “globalists” and all the rest of it. The basest of the base.

    Conclusion? Too obvious to bother spelling out beyond “landslide”.

    Nap of the day. You can back Biden to take Penn at 1.65. There are worse bets. :smile:

    Brilliant stuff, Kinabalu. Entirely persuasive. Might I suggest for a future analysis, you could talk us through the next London Assembly elections through the prism of Love Actually?
    ☺ - I can do that.
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