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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Trump drops even further in the WH2020 betting following his l

SystemSystem Posts: 8,258
edited June 22 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Trump drops even further in the WH2020 betting following his less than successful Tulsa rally

This last weekend was going to be the moment when Trump would seriously bounce back in his re-election effort with a mass rally in Tulsa Oklahoma. Unfortunately for him and his team the event proved to be something of a disaster with just over 6k in the 19k seat venue. A second location nearby to deal with the overflow was abandoned when it became clear the numbers weren’t there.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 59,930
    Sad
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 17,766
    Heart of stone etc ......
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 10,905
    Interesting

    http://hurryupharry.org/2020/06/21/the-ethnic-minority-test-why-women-like-munira-mirza-are-doomed-to-fail/

    On topic - we think things are bad here - the USA is a basket case with really poor choices of leadership available.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 3,599
    he's going to lose BIGLY !
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 22,331
    edited June 22
    Which is better – to have people voting for you more because they dislike your opponent or specifically like you?

    It's better to have more people voting for you.
    That's it.


    And, yet again, a poll which did not ask the ham sandwich question.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 22,331
    Trump’s Latest Firing May Have Violated Four Core Values Of American Democracy
    https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trumps-latest-firing-may-have-violated-four-democratic-values/

    Only four ?
    (Good article, though.)
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 19,536
    Trump is (hopefully) done. I'm starting to believe that they may try and remove him before November so that Pence has a clear run. I think Pence could probably win too.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 33,017
    MaxPB said:

    Trump is (hopefully) done. I'm starting to believe that they may try and remove him before November so that Pence has a clear run. I think Pence could probably win too.

    If the Republicans did succeed in removing Trump from the ticket, the Democrats might need to do the same given that Biden's main selling point is that he doesn't repel anti-Trump voters.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 46,935
    Scott_xP said:

    twitter.com/Adamstoon1/status/1275025674475102214

    Does he ever manage to do a funny cartoon?
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 14,083
    edited June 22
    MaxPB said:

    Trump is (hopefully) done. I'm starting to believe that they may try and remove him before November so that Pence has a clear run. I think Pence could probably win too.

    Who would try to remove him though? Trump has the delegates.

    The cabinet could bump him from the presidency and install Pence, but that still doesn't make Pence the nominee...
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 46,935
    edited June 22
    MaxPB said:

    Trump is (hopefully) done. I'm starting to believe that they may try and remove him before November so that Pence has a clear run. I think Pence could probably win too.

    A sensible steady Republican could win because middle America will be horrified by ripping down statues of America founding fathers.

    Biden is going to have a hell of a job when he wins though. The loony left aren't going to go away just because he has got rid of Trump.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 7,673
    Bloody hell, that's some drop, and.....only 24 hours from Tulsa!

    Alright, alright, I'll get me own coat.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 29,151

    Scott_xP said:

    twitter.com/Adamstoon1/status/1275025674475102214

    Does he ever manage to do a funny cartoon?
    No. It's not even intelligent pun, because it doesn't work on any level.

    A smart one would be a pair of speech bubbles - one showing a charming young lady, and the other saying 'social distancing.' And then you have 'two metre or not to meet 'er?'
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 179
    edited June 22
    MaxPB said:

    Trump is (hopefully) done. I'm starting to believe that they may try and remove him before November so that Pence has a clear run. I think Pence could probably win too.

    Has that ever happened before? Dumping an incumbent President who has effectively won the nomination?

    Perhaps the old favourite 'health grounds' can be played somehow. It can't be long before he catches Covid.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 25,981

    Scott_xP said:

    twitter.com/Adamstoon1/status/1275025674475102214

    Does he ever manage to do a funny cartoon?
    I think there has been one, a few weeks ago. Otherwise, no.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 3,643

    Bloody hell, that's some drop, and.....only 24 hours from Tulsa!

    Alright, alright, I'll get me own coat.


    No jacket retrieval required IMO.

    That was pretty good!



  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 22,331

    Scott_xP said:

    twitter.com/Adamstoon1/status/1275025674475102214

    Does he ever manage to do a funny cartoon?
    I think there has been one, a few weeks ago. Otherwise, no.
    Yes, I vaguely recall being amused by one.
    Can't remember anything else about it, though.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 7,673
    MaxPB said:

    Trump is (hopefully) done. I'm starting to believe that they may try and remove him before November so that Pence has a clear run. I think Pence could probably win too.

    No, it just wouldn't work, Max. Trump isn't really a Republican and his devout supporters wouldn't just flop into the arms of the next man up. If Trump quit, a lot of them would just sit on their hands. Pence would lose as bigly as any other Republican candidate.

    The GOP did a deal with the devil to keep Hillary out of the White House. They can't unwind that deal now. It's possible that he will quit the ticket anyway but personally I don't think his vanity would permit it.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 22,331
    Nigelb said:

    Trump’s Latest Firing May Have Violated Four Core Values Of American Democracy
    https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trumps-latest-firing-may-have-violated-four-democratic-values/

    Only four ?
    (Good article, though.)


    This bit reminds me of Lindsey Graham's very recent attempt at social distancing from Trump:
    ...We recently wrote about how the administration’s decision to use chemical agents and rubber bullets on protesters outside the White House violated several democratic values. Key officials involved in that incident now seem to regret it. The firing of Berman may also backfire on Trump. It could embolden more people, including some Republicans, to start criticizing the president for politicizing law enforcement decisions.

    Berman’s decision to resist his firing and administration officials’ distancing themselves from the White House protest incident suggest something else that should worry Trump: People in his administration may be reading and believing polls showing him trailing Biden, thinking Trump is likely to lose reelection in November and becoming more unwilling to do questionable things to stay in good standing with a man who may not be president come January.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 25,981
    edited June 22
    Sensible Republicans - of which there are some - should write off the 2016 presidential election and instead should work on two things:

    1. Ensuring the Trump Taint does as little damage as possible to the down-ticket elections, especially the Senate races, and

    2. Thinking long and hard about how the party can recover from disaster of nominating Trump in the first place. He's toxified the brand to a degree which is even greater than was obvious in 2016. It's not going to be easy to reverse that.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 7,673

    Bloody hell, that's some drop, and.....only 24 hours from Tulsa!

    Alright, alright, I'll get me own coat.


    No jacket retrieval required IMO.

    That was pretty good!



    Thank you, but I will need to put my Genes on.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 3,599

    It's possible that he will quit the ticket anyway but personally I don't think his vanity would permit it.

    That's a key question though.

    Would it be a bigger blow to his vanity to walk away "undefeated", or get absolutely mullered by the voters?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 33,796
    If Trump loses he either goes shouting 'rigged' and then spends the next four years trying to pull together some kind of militia to take over from a 'fraudulent' Biden. Or, he refuses to go saying the result was rigged and calls on his armed supporters to take the streets straight away.

    This is going to end very badly, as Steve Bannon warned us all.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 14,933

    MaxPB said:

    Trump is (hopefully) done. I'm starting to believe that they may try and remove him before November so that Pence has a clear run. I think Pence could probably win too.

    If the Republicans did succeed in removing Trump from the ticket, the Democrats might need to do the same given that Biden's main selling point is that he doesn't repel anti-Trump voters.
    Pence is so drenched in the stink of Trump that running just exactly the same campaign as their planned anti Trump campaign would do just as well.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 14,933

    Sensible Republicans - of which there are some - should write off the 2016 presidential election and instead should work on two things:

    1. Ensuring the Trump Taint does as little damage as possible to the down-ticket elections, especially the Senate races, and

    2. Thinking long and hard about how the party can recover from disaster of nominating Trump in the first place. He's toxified the brand to a degree which is even greater than was obvious in 2016. It's not going to be easy to reverse that.

    Trump is, in many cases, outpolling the Senate candidates.

    The GOP is in deep trouble.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 22,331

    MaxPB said:

    Trump is (hopefully) done. I'm starting to believe that they may try and remove him before November so that Pence has a clear run. I think Pence could probably win too.

    No, it just wouldn't work, Max. Trump isn't really a Republican and his devout supporters wouldn't just flop into the arms of the next man up. If Trump quit, a lot of them would just sit on their hands. Pence would lose as bigly as any other Republican candidate.

    The GOP did a deal with the devil to keep Hillary out of the White House. They can't unwind that deal now. It's possible that he will quit the ticket anyway but personally I don't think his vanity would permit it.
    And were he to do so (however unlikely that might be), he'd happily leave a wasteland behind him.
    The Republicans are stuck with him this cycle, and they know it.
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,130
    edited June 22

    Sensible Republicans - of which there are some - should write off the 2016 presidential election and instead should work on two things:

    1. Ensuring the Trump Taint does as little damage as possible to the down-ticket elections, especially the Senate races, and

    2. Thinking long and hard about how the party can recover from disaster of nominating Trump in the first place. He's toxified the brand to a degree which is even greater than was obvious in 2016. It's not going to be easy to reverse that.

    Back in the real world, GOP senators are doing worse than Trump in many recent state polls.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 28,030
    edited June 22

    Scott_xP said:

    twitter.com/Adamstoon1/status/1275025674475102214

    Does he ever manage to do a funny cartoon?
    All these people complaining about the time he’s taking to review the data and make a decision... would they rather he went with his gut feel?
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 1,589
    Perhaps Trump should have had a more generous furlough scheme.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 14,933

    MaxPB said:

    Trump is (hopefully) done. I'm starting to believe that they may try and remove him before November so that Pence has a clear run. I think Pence could probably win too.

    No, it just wouldn't work, Max. Trump isn't really a Republican and his devout supporters wouldn't just flop into the arms of the next man up. If Trump quit, a lot of them would just sit on their hands. Pence would lose as bigly as any other Republican candidate.

    The GOP did a deal with the devil to keep Hillary out of the White House. They can't unwind that deal now. It's possible that he will quit the ticket anyway but personally I don't think his vanity would permit it.
    But the GOP didn't do a deal with the devil pre election. Establishment Republicans pre election said they were all doomed with Trump as the candidate. Lindsey Graham was extremely harsh in his criticism of Trump.

    It was only after Trump won that they became servile lickspittle worms to Trumpism.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 3,643
    isam said:

    Warm Easter weekend. Silent St Bernard.

    VE Day parties. Mute Doberman.

    Black Lives Matter. Inaudible Great Dane.



    It seems you are far more likely to catch this thing by either a) working in a cheap processed meat factor or b) doing Big Religion

    Than being outside with lots of people.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 33,796

    MaxPB said:

    Trump is (hopefully) done. I'm starting to believe that they may try and remove him before November so that Pence has a clear run. I think Pence could probably win too.

    Who would try to remove him though? Trump has the delegates.

    The cabinet could bump him from the presidency and install Pence, but that still doesn't make Pence the nominee...
    The cabinet are all Trump's mates.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 29,151
    Charles said:

    Scott_xP said:

    twitter.com/Adamstoon1/status/1275025674475102214

    Does he ever manage to do a funny cartoon?
    All these people complaining about the time he’s taking to review the data and make a decision... would they rather he went with his gut feel?
    He will anyway Charles, as if there is one thing Johnson’s career demonstrates with brutal clarity it is that he can not grasp detail.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 11,753
    edited June 22
    Alistair said:

    Sensible Republicans - of which there are some - should write off the 2016 presidential election and instead should work on two things:

    1. Ensuring the Trump Taint does as little damage as possible to the down-ticket elections, especially the Senate races, and

    2. Thinking long and hard about how the party can recover from disaster of nominating Trump in the first place. He's toxified the brand to a degree which is even greater than was obvious in 2016. It's not going to be easy to reverse that.

    Trump is, in many cases, outpolling the Senate candidates.

    The GOP is in deep trouble.
    Yes. Don't know where they go from here. I know where they deserve to go for enabling this shameful episode in American life - in a box, ten feet under, no lid.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 46,935
    edited June 22
    Charles said:

    Scott_xP said:

    twitter.com/Adamstoon1/status/1275025674475102214

    Does he ever manage to do a funny cartoon?
    All these people complaining about the time he’s taking to review the data and make a decision... would they rather he went with his gut feel?
    On the 2m, the criticism is ridiculous. The media complain other countries it is less, then when the government say they will review it, they complain not following the science, then they complain review taking too long and hurting businesses.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 8,382

    MaxPB said:

    Trump is (hopefully) done. I'm starting to believe that they may try and remove him before November so that Pence has a clear run. I think Pence could probably win too.

    No, it just wouldn't work, Max. Trump isn't really a Republican and his devout supporters wouldn't just flop into the arms of the next man up. If Trump quit, a lot of them would just sit on their hands. Pence would lose as bigly as any other Republican candidate.

    The GOP did a deal with the devil to keep Hillary out of the White House. They can't unwind that deal now. It's possible that he will quit the ticket anyway but personally I don't think his vanity would permit it.
    Now, would Trump rather be thought a 'Quitter' or a 'Loser'?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 33,796
    Scott_xP said:
    The Cummings Rule in action again.

    One law for the little people, and one law for the New Elite.


  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 4,885
    Floater said:

    Interesting

    http://hurryupharry.org/2020/06/21/the-ethnic-minority-test-why-women-like-munira-mirza-are-doomed-to-fail/

    On topic - we think things are bad here - the USA is a basket case with really poor choices of leadership available.

    This process was demonstrated by a member of Sein Fein, to camera.

    It was in the period of the peace process, where SF was refusing to recognise the new Police Service of NI. I paraphrase the conversation to a report thus.

    Reporter : "Why don't you recognise the PSNI? It's 50% catholic etc"

    SF Councillor : "Any Catholic in the police is a Castle Catholic* and middle class, they aren't anything to do with real Catholics from around here (deprived area) "

    Reporter : "What if more people joined the PSNI from around here?"

    SF Councillor : "Then they would be Castle Catholics - for joining a police service that doesn't represent Catholics."

    *Their version of "Uncle Tom"
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 8,382

    If Trump loses he either goes shouting 'rigged' and then spends the next four years trying to pull together some kind of militia to take over from a 'fraudulent' Biden. Or, he refuses to go saying the result was rigged and calls on his armed supporters to take the streets straight away.

    This is going to end very badly, as Steve Bannon warned us all.
    Steve Bannon helped create President Trump.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 40,757
    ydoethur said:

    Charles said:

    Scott_xP said:

    twitter.com/Adamstoon1/status/1275025674475102214

    Does he ever manage to do a funny cartoon?
    All these people complaining about the time he’s taking to review the data and make a decision... would they rather he went with his gut feel?
    He will anyway Charles, as if there is one thing Johnson’s career demonstrates with brutal clarity it is that he can not grasp detail.
    One of the things I've wondered is whether May would have handled COVID better - details she does, and her cabinet was on average better than the current one - despite a well justified reputation for caution she could be decisive in emergencies - for example, Salisbury. We'll never know, but I sometimes wonder if her more scientific background might have resulted in more robust probing of the scientific advice - especially "the populace won't wear a lockdown" and "no point in closing the borders/quarantining arrivals".
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 22,331
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 54,582

    eadric said:

    eadric said:

    America is stripping away its history

    It's not really though is it? The history will still be there; there's not going to be a big black hole between 1901 and 1909.

    Statues ≠ history.
    Yes, it is. This isn't just statues. It's street names, murals, movies, buildings, sitcoms, unsound books, academic opinions, the works. It is a complete and comprehensive editing of American culture and history (and ours, to a lesser extent)

    For the first time, peer reviewed science is being withdrawn, as too "sensitive".

    It is, for me, the closing of the Western mind and I believe it is a tragic mis-step. I dearly hope I am utterly wrong
    Some slopes are actually slippery.

    I think John Oliver is hilarious but on these issues hes turned the partisanship up to 1000 and cannot hide his anger with comedy as well.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 33,796
    Too many Dem supporters starting to think like this imho. Big, big, big mistake.

    This 'aint over by a very long way.

  • eekeek Posts: 8,141

    Charles said:

    Scott_xP said:

    twitter.com/Adamstoon1/status/1275025674475102214

    Does he ever manage to do a funny cartoon?
    All these people complaining about the time he’s taking to review the data and make a decision... would they rather he went with his gut feel?
    On the 2m, the criticism is ridiculous. The media complain other countries it is less, then when the government say they will review it, they complain not following the science, then they complain review taking too long and hurting businesses.
    Thats the joy of 24 hour news - you have to fill it so you pick any argument you can find to fill the gap...
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 14,933
    Scott_xP said:
    The main thing they are going for is about making Trump look weak. A huge portion of the GOP vote likes a Strong Man figure, they are looking for an Authoritarian.

    Many of these ads are about making him look like a cry baby

  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 11,753
    Nigelb said:

    Which is better – to have people voting for you more because they dislike your opponent or specifically like you?

    It's better to have more people voting for you.
    That's it.


    And, yet again, a poll which did not ask the ham sandwich question.

    Or the armchair.

    I reckon vs Trump both would walk the Rust Belt and the ham sarnie would have a serious shot at Florida. Put mustard on it and Texas would fall.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 9,922
    FPT
    Onlylivingboy said
    ' Keeping Corbyn in place was a mistake, I think. The electorate don't like being offered something they've already said no to. I think it's reasonable to expect that Labour will form the government after the next election, although an outright majority remains a big ask without a lot of Scottish seats. '

    The electorate has often changed its mind about leaders it initially rejected. Having said 'No' to Churchill in 1945 - and 1950 - it welcomed him back in 1951. Heath was rejected decisively in 1966 - yet won a clear majority in 1970.After being defeated in 1970, Wilson returned to office in March 1974.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 46,935
    edited June 22

    ydoethur said:

    Charles said:

    Scott_xP said:

    twitter.com/Adamstoon1/status/1275025674475102214

    Does he ever manage to do a funny cartoon?
    All these people complaining about the time he’s taking to review the data and make a decision... would they rather he went with his gut feel?
    He will anyway Charles, as if there is one thing Johnson’s career demonstrates with brutal clarity it is that he can not grasp detail.
    One of the things I've wondered is whether May would have handled COVID better - details she does, and her cabinet was on average better than the current one - despite a well justified reputation for caution she could be decisive in emergencies - for example, Salisbury. We'll never know, but I sometimes wonder if her more scientific background might have resulted in more robust probing of the scientific advice - especially "the populace won't wear a lockdown" and "no point in closing the borders/quarantining arrivals".
    The problem with May, very slow to make decision and when made it will stick to it rigidly. Very Gordo. In this fast moving situation, you need to be smart and flexible.

    Cameron would have been the better. Despite the reputation for liking a chillax, he was always on top of his red box.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 20,570
    edited June 22
    How well I remember those blithe, innocent days when BLM and the protests were playing into Trump's (tiny) hands.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 5,613
    isam said:
    This was fairly obvious from the numbers at the time. 1 in 3000 had covid, the demonstrations were typically in the low thousands, and covid sufferers would be less likely to attend than non covid sufferers, so it was odds on the number of people shedding the virus at all but the largest demonstrations was 0. Even in the largest demonstrations it would be low single figures.

    Of course you could have got a spike, and it was a risk but it was very unlikely to be observable from the numbers.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 54,582

    isam said:

    Warm Easter weekend. Silent St Bernard.

    VE Day parties. Mute Doberman.

    Black Lives Matter. Inaudible Great Dane.



    It seems you are far more likely to catch this thing by either a) working in a cheap processed meat factor or b) doing Big Religion

    Than being outside with lots of people.
    Damn, I've never regretted my membership of the universal church of meat manufacturing so much.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 11,753
    MaxPB said:

    Trump is (hopefully) done. I'm starting to believe that they may try and remove him before November so that Pence has a clear run. I think Pence could probably win too.

    Pence next POTUS is 120. Worth a nibble if your thoughts are running that way.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 54,582
    Scott_xP said:
    I don't get the message. Is it against a review?
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 7,673

    Sensible Republicans - of which there are some - should write off the 2016 presidential election and instead should work on two things:

    1. Ensuring the Trump Taint does as little damage as possible to the down-ticket elections, especially the Senate races, and

    2. Thinking long and hard about how the party can recover from disaster of nominating Trump in the first place. He's toxified the brand to a degree which is even greater than was obvious in 2016. It's not going to be easy to reverse that.

    Back in the real world, GOP senators are doing worse than Trump in many recent state polls.
    That's not at all surprising. A lot of Trump supporters are suspicious of their GOP Senators, and will not automatically vote for them.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 46,935
    edited June 22
    kle4 said:

    eadric said:

    eadric said:

    America is stripping away its history

    It's not really though is it? The history will still be there; there's not going to be a big black hole between 1901 and 1909.

    Statues ≠ history.
    Yes, it is. This isn't just statues. It's street names, murals, movies, buildings, sitcoms, unsound books, academic opinions, the works. It is a complete and comprehensive editing of American culture and history (and ours, to a lesser extent)

    For the first time, peer reviewed science is being withdrawn, as too "sensitive".

    It is, for me, the closing of the Western mind and I believe it is a tragic mis-step. I dearly hope I am utterly wrong
    Some slopes are actually slippery.

    I think John Oliver is hilarious but on these issues hes turned the partisanship up to 1000 and cannot hide his anger with comedy as well.
    This week limbo dancing was interesting. Criticising people for ignoring social distancing one second, while praising BLM protests and how peaceful they were in the next breath...then supporting prisoners rights to smash shit up because they didn't feel they were getting inadequate protection against covid.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 5,613

    Charles said:

    Scott_xP said:

    twitter.com/Adamstoon1/status/1275025674475102214

    Does he ever manage to do a funny cartoon?
    All these people complaining about the time he’s taking to review the data and make a decision... would they rather he went with his gut feel?
    On the 2m, the criticism is ridiculous. The media complain other countries it is less, then when the government say they will review it, they complain not following the science, then they complain review taking too long and hurting businesses.
    There are critics who want the govt to take more risks and critics who want the govt to take less risks. They are generally different people, (although some people do seem to like having multiple personalities on here). That the media spends more time reporting govt criticism than reporting agreement with the government is nothing new or ridiculous, it has always been that way.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 1,589
    This thread reminds me of some I read in Feb/March 2016 when remain was a done deal, before I delurked.

    It didn;t turn out that way.

    I still think some of the discontent with Trump is discontent with life. 20-plus million Americans have lost their jobs.

    But we shall see.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 8,382
    Scott_xP said:
    What it says about 'The Lincoln Project' is spot on.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 54,582
    Scott_xP said:
    I don't get the message. Is it against a review?
    justin124 said:

    FPT
    Onlylivingboy said
    ' Keeping Corbyn in place was a mistake, I think. The electorate don't like being offered something they've already said no to. I think it's reasonable to expect that Labour will form the government after the next election, although an outright majority remains a big ask without a lot of Scottish seats. '

    The electorate has often changed its mind about leaders it initially rejected. Having said 'No' to Churchill in 1945 - and 1950 - it welcomed him back in 1951. Heath was rejected decisively in 1966 - yet won a clear majority in 1970.After being defeated in 1970, Wilson returned to office in March 1974.

    It's actually shame more do not try. At the least more could still hold senior positions. Notwithstanding any personal view of her I'd like to see May in the Cabinet for that reason.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 11,753

    If Trump loses he either goes shouting 'rigged' and then spends the next four years trying to pull together some kind of militia to take over from a 'fraudulent' Biden. Or, he refuses to go saying the result was rigged and calls on his armed supporters to take the streets straight away.

    This is going to end very badly, as Steve Bannon warned us all.
    It's possible he will go that far. I'm not ruling it out. He will certainly not be letting go of his hold over the poor brainwashed suckers in that "base" of his. But I think his priorities post defeat will be to stay out of jail and monetize monetize MONETIZE.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 7,673

    ydoethur said:

    Charles said:

    Scott_xP said:

    twitter.com/Adamstoon1/status/1275025674475102214

    Does he ever manage to do a funny cartoon?
    All these people complaining about the time he’s taking to review the data and make a decision... would they rather he went with his gut feel?
    He will anyway Charles, as if there is one thing Johnson’s career demonstrates with brutal clarity it is that he can not grasp detail.
    One of the things I've wondered is whether May would have handled COVID better - details she does, and her cabinet was on average better than the current one - despite a well justified reputation for caution she could be decisive in emergencies - for example, Salisbury. We'll never know, but I sometimes wonder if her more scientific background might have resulted in more robust probing of the scientific advice - especially "the populace won't wear a lockdown" and "no point in closing the borders/quarantining arrivals".
    The problem with May, very slow to make decision and when made it will stick to it rigidly. Very Gordo. In this fast moving situation, you need to be smart and flexible.

    Cameron would have been the better. Despite the reputation for liking a chillax, he was always on top of his red box.
    Well I think Cameron was just a better PM all round but I imagine May would have handled the crisis well too for the reasons given above.
  • eekeek Posts: 8,141

    This thread reminds me of some I read in Feb/March 2016 when remain was a done deal, before I delurked.

    It didn;t turn out that way.

    I still think some of the discontent with Trump is discontent with life. 20-plus million Americans have lost their jobs.

    But we shall see.

    If you are discontent with life do you:

    1) Vote for the person who promises change but wasn't in power
    2) the person who promises change yet has been in power for the past 4 yeats
    3) the person who blames your predicament on the person who has been in power for the past 4 yeats.

    In 2016, Trump was option 1 he is now option 2 and option 3 will be used to attack him.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 5,053
    Scott_xP said:
    That's effronté even by the lofty standards of la famille Johnson.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 1,589

    Sensible Republicans - of which there are some - should write off the 2016 presidential election and instead should work on two things:

    1. Ensuring the Trump Taint does as little damage as possible to the down-ticket elections, especially the Senate races, and

    2. Thinking long and hard about how the party can recover from disaster of nominating Trump in the first place. He's toxified the brand to a degree which is even greater than was obvious in 2016. It's not going to be easy to reverse that.

    Back in the real world, GOP senators are doing worse than Trump in many recent state polls.
    That's not at all surprising. A lot of Trump supporters are suspicious of their GOP Senators, and will not automatically vote for them.
    This view is quite mainstream, and was articulated by Fox's Tucker Carlson they other night.

    Some repubs clearly furious at what they see as their representatives rolling over to BLM.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 3,599
    kle4 said:

    I don't get the message. Is it against a review?

    The scientists want 2 metres

    The economists want 1 metre

    BoZo picked neither
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 54,582
    edited June 22
    Scott_xP said:

    kle4 said:

    I don't get the message. Is it against a review?

    The scientists want 2 metres

    The economists want 1 metre

    BoZo picked neither
    That doesnt work, until a review concludes differently he has chosen to continue 2m. Not making a different choice yet is choosing the status quo.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 4,885

    Charles said:

    Scott_xP said:

    twitter.com/Adamstoon1/status/1275025674475102214

    Does he ever manage to do a funny cartoon?
    All these people complaining about the time he’s taking to review the data and make a decision... would they rather he went with his gut feel?
    On the 2m, the criticism is ridiculous. The media complain other countries it is less, then when the government say they will review it, they complain not following the science, then they complain review taking too long and hurting businesses.
    There are critics who want the govt to take more risks and critics who want the govt to take less risks. They are generally different people, (although some people do seem to like having multiple personalities on here). That the media spends more time reporting govt criticism than reporting agreement with the government is nothing new or ridiculous, it has always been that way.
    I have acquaintances who are pro-lockdown, anti-lockdown, semi-pro-lockdown. In the same tweet.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 46,935
    edited June 22

    ydoethur said:

    Charles said:

    Scott_xP said:

    twitter.com/Adamstoon1/status/1275025674475102214

    Does he ever manage to do a funny cartoon?
    All these people complaining about the time he’s taking to review the data and make a decision... would they rather he went with his gut feel?
    He will anyway Charles, as if there is one thing Johnson’s career demonstrates with brutal clarity it is that he can not grasp detail.
    One of the things I've wondered is whether May would have handled COVID better - details she does, and her cabinet was on average better than the current one - despite a well justified reputation for caution she could be decisive in emergencies - for example, Salisbury. We'll never know, but I sometimes wonder if her more scientific background might have resulted in more robust probing of the scientific advice - especially "the populace won't wear a lockdown" and "no point in closing the borders/quarantining arrivals".
    The problem with May, very slow to make decision and when made it will stick to it rigidly. Very Gordo. In this fast moving situation, you need to be smart and flexible.

    Cameron would have been the better. Despite the reputation for liking a chillax, he was always on top of his red box.
    Well I think Cameron was just a better PM all round but I imagine May would have handled the crisis well too for the reasons given above.
    May's lack of flexibility would have been bad. Many of the good parts of the government response was down to some fast thinking and rapid action e.g. food boxes. The worst aspects was when they went with established procedure e.g. PHE only testing.

    May's instincts are always to do the later.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 4,885
    edited June 22
    kle4 said:

    Scott_xP said:
    I don't get the message. Is it against a review?
    It is very hard to oppose a decision until you know what you are opposing. This can be frustrating

    - Government retains 2m - "Stupid government destroys business"
    - Government reduces to 1.5m - "Evil government sacrifices working class ito economy"

    etc etc...

    It is very hard to make up your mind if you opponents haven't don't it for you.

    I mean, if you have to actually say what you think *now* you might end up agreeing with your opponent. Which is unthinkable.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 5,613

    Charles said:

    Scott_xP said:

    twitter.com/Adamstoon1/status/1275025674475102214

    Does he ever manage to do a funny cartoon?
    All these people complaining about the time he’s taking to review the data and make a decision... would they rather he went with his gut feel?
    On the 2m, the criticism is ridiculous. The media complain other countries it is less, then when the government say they will review it, they complain not following the science, then they complain review taking too long and hurting businesses.
    There are critics who want the govt to take more risks and critics who want the govt to take less risks. They are generally different people, (although some people do seem to like having multiple personalities on here). That the media spends more time reporting govt criticism than reporting agreement with the government is nothing new or ridiculous, it has always been that way.
    I have acquaintances who are pro-lockdown, anti-lockdown, semi-pro-lockdown. In the same tweet.
    Stop listening to eadric.
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,130

    Sensible Republicans - of which there are some - should write off the 2016 presidential election and instead should work on two things:

    1. Ensuring the Trump Taint does as little damage as possible to the down-ticket elections, especially the Senate races, and

    2. Thinking long and hard about how the party can recover from disaster of nominating Trump in the first place. He's toxified the brand to a degree which is even greater than was obvious in 2016. It's not going to be easy to reverse that.

    Back in the real world, GOP senators are doing worse than Trump in many recent state polls.
    That's not at all surprising. A lot of Trump supporters are suspicious of their GOP Senators, and will not automatically vote for them.
    The whole reason Trump is president is because the "sensible Republicans" as Nabavi calls them are more toxic than he is. The idea you get rid of Trump and people will vote for GOP senators is for the birds.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 7,673

    MaxPB said:

    Trump is (hopefully) done. I'm starting to believe that they may try and remove him before November so that Pence has a clear run. I think Pence could probably win too.

    No, it just wouldn't work, Max. Trump isn't really a Republican and his devout supporters wouldn't just flop into the arms of the next man up. If Trump quit, a lot of them would just sit on their hands. Pence would lose as bigly as any other Republican candidate.

    The GOP did a deal with the devil to keep Hillary out of the White House. They can't unwind that deal now. It's possible that he will quit the ticket anyway but personally I don't think his vanity would permit it.
    Now, would Trump rather be thought a 'Quitter' or a 'Loser'?
    He can redefine Loser to convince himself and his supporters that he actually won but was cheated. Hard to redefine Quitter.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 47,162
    kle4 said:

    Scott_xP said:
    I don't get the message. Is it against a review?
    Boris Bad.
  • ydoethur said:

    Charles said:

    Scott_xP said:

    twitter.com/Adamstoon1/status/1275025674475102214

    Does he ever manage to do a funny cartoon?
    All these people complaining about the time he’s taking to review the data and make a decision... would they rather he went with his gut feel?
    He will anyway Charles, as if there is one thing Johnson’s career demonstrates with brutal clarity it is that he can not grasp detail.
    One of the things I've wondered is whether May would have handled COVID better - details she does, and her cabinet was on average better than the current one - despite a well justified reputation for caution she could be decisive in emergencies - for example, Salisbury. We'll never know, but I sometimes wonder if her more scientific background might have resulted in more robust probing of the scientific advice - especially "the populace won't wear a lockdown" and "no point in closing the borders/quarantining arrivals".
    The problem with May, very slow to make decision and when made it will stick to it rigidly. Very Gordo. In this fast moving situation, you need to be smart and flexible.

    Cameron would have been the better. Despite the reputation for liking a chillax, he was always on top of his red box.
    Agree on Cameron; he could also do the "Father of the Nation make it all better" thing convincingly, which people needed in March.

    However, any alternative PM would have had to big advantages over BoJo. One is being around, physically and mentally in late February. That's when the decisions ought to have been taken; after that the UK was always going to be in catch up mode.

    The other is that Boris's biases- especially to libertarianism and optimism- led him up the garden path in this case. Even if he was following duff advice, the fact that it matched his prejudices must have affected his willingness to ask some pretty obvious questions.
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 2,179
    We also know far more.

    If there's a resurgence, I'd expect the restrictions imposed to be far more directed.

    For example, re-closing the non-essential shops, requiring facemasks in essential shops, work from home or only go to an essential job, can go outside as much as you like, stay 2 metres apart outside and indoors (the latter with masks), allow bubbles to remain, allow takeaways to stay open, allow professional sport to continue in empty stadia subject to frequent covid-19 testing, and so forth.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 9,922
    FPT
    Nigel_Foremain said
    'The reason why Corbyn did comparatively well in 2017 was because no one seriously thought he would win. Everyone was predicting a TMay landslide and Corbyn almost got in by accident. His comparative success was an amateurish fluke and nothing else. '

    That is really a myth in terms of what polls were predicting in the final ten days of the 2017 campaign. It was very true of the first month or so after May's election announcement on 18th April, but by early June there were many polls showing Tory leads in the range of 1% - 5% - which did suggest a serious possibility of a Hung Parliament. Some of us on here also did point out at the time that such leads implied a rather bigger swing to Labour in England & Wales than indicated by the headline GB data - given that the Tories were clearly enjoying a surge in Scotland.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 11,753

    This thread reminds me of some I read in Feb/March 2016 when remain was a done deal, before I delurked.

    It didn;t turn out that way.

    I still think some of the discontent with Trump is discontent with life. 20-plus million Americans have lost their jobs.

    But we shall see.

    We shall.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 7,673
    New Yorker toon. What you expect?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 11,753

    ydoethur said:

    Charles said:

    Scott_xP said:

    twitter.com/Adamstoon1/status/1275025674475102214

    Does he ever manage to do a funny cartoon?
    All these people complaining about the time he’s taking to review the data and make a decision... would they rather he went with his gut feel?
    He will anyway Charles, as if there is one thing Johnson’s career demonstrates with brutal clarity it is that he can not grasp detail.
    One of the things I've wondered is whether May would have handled COVID better - details she does, and her cabinet was on average better than the current one - despite a well justified reputation for caution she could be decisive in emergencies - for example, Salisbury. We'll never know, but I sometimes wonder if her more scientific background might have resulted in more robust probing of the scientific advice - especially "the populace won't wear a lockdown" and "no point in closing the borders/quarantining arrivals".
    The problem with May, very slow to make decision and when made it will stick to it rigidly. Very Gordo. In this fast moving situation, you need to be smart and flexible.

    Cameron would have been the better. Despite the reputation for liking a chillax, he was always on top of his red box.
    I agree that Cameron would have been better than May. But I do think May would have been better than Johnson.
  • Fysics_TeacherFysics_Teacher Posts: 2,316

    New Yorker toon. What you expect?
    I’m afraid it’s not on my usual reading list.

    The Spectator often has fairly funny cartoons and my main reason for occasionally buying Private Eye are that they do too. Other than the Telegraph with Matt, I’m not sure who else does consistently: the ones in The New Statesman normally leave me cold for instance.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 33,017
    kinabalu said:

    ydoethur said:

    Charles said:

    Scott_xP said:

    twitter.com/Adamstoon1/status/1275025674475102214

    Does he ever manage to do a funny cartoon?
    All these people complaining about the time he’s taking to review the data and make a decision... would they rather he went with his gut feel?
    He will anyway Charles, as if there is one thing Johnson’s career demonstrates with brutal clarity it is that he can not grasp detail.
    One of the things I've wondered is whether May would have handled COVID better - details she does, and her cabinet was on average better than the current one - despite a well justified reputation for caution she could be decisive in emergencies - for example, Salisbury. We'll never know, but I sometimes wonder if her more scientific background might have resulted in more robust probing of the scientific advice - especially "the populace won't wear a lockdown" and "no point in closing the borders/quarantining arrivals".
    The problem with May, very slow to make decision and when made it will stick to it rigidly. Very Gordo. In this fast moving situation, you need to be smart and flexible.

    Cameron would have been the better. Despite the reputation for liking a chillax, he was always on top of his red box.
    I agree that Cameron would have been better than May. But I do think May would have been better than Johnson.
    Cameron would have done even more of the sickly British sentimentality than Johnson. I can hear him emoting now.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 59,930
    edited June 22
    Hopefully the 2 metre rule will be kept for supermarkets. It's not 100% adhered to but it's a good guide for expected behaviour for essential purchasing.
    Non essential retail, pubs, restaurants are definitely in the 'choice' retail/service so idk, maybe 1 metre for side side, 1.5 for forward-back ?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 11,753
    Alistair said:

    Scott_xP said:
    The main thing they are going for is about making Trump look weak. A huge portion of the GOP vote likes a Strong Man figure, they are looking for an Authoritarian.

    Many of these ads are about making him look like a cry baby
    Yes, if that - risible but widely believed - notion of him as a "super-smart businessman who knows how to get things done" is exploded it leaves very little indeed. That was imo quite a big factor in his 2016 appeal.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 7,673

    Sensible Republicans - of which there are some - should write off the 2016 presidential election and instead should work on two things:

    1. Ensuring the Trump Taint does as little damage as possible to the down-ticket elections, especially the Senate races, and

    2. Thinking long and hard about how the party can recover from disaster of nominating Trump in the first place. He's toxified the brand to a degree which is even greater than was obvious in 2016. It's not going to be easy to reverse that.

    Back in the real world, GOP senators are doing worse than Trump in many recent state polls.
    That's not at all surprising. A lot of Trump supporters are suspicious of their GOP Senators, and will not automatically vote for them.
    This view is quite mainstream, and was articulated by Fox's Tucker Carlson they other night.

    Some repubs clearly furious at what they see as their representatives rolling over to BLM.
    Didn't see the show but that makes perfect sense to me.

    Trump draws his support principally from bigots and racists. They are frustrated that there is no publicly acceptable outlet for their views. Trump appeals to them, largely through dog-whistles and by pushing the boundaries. His language stops just short of the outright illegal, but it's enough to signal that he's their man.

    GOP Senators who are not prepared to go down this route, and there are plenty of them, are regarded with suspicion and may as well be Democrats as far as Trump's supporters are concerned.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 3,599
    kle4 said:

    That doesnt work, until a review concludes differently he has chosen to continue 2m. Not making a different choice yet is choosing the status quo.

    He hasn't though.

    He is going to announce 1m plus, which is neither 1m nor 2m
  • RobDRobD Posts: 47,162
    Scott_xP said:

    kle4 said:

    That doesnt work, until a review concludes differently he has chosen to continue 2m. Not making a different choice yet is choosing the status quo.

    He hasn't though.

    He is going to announce 1m plus, which is neither 1m nor 2m
    So he's continuing with 2m then, until it is announced otherwise?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 46,935
    Pulpstar said:

    Hopefully the 2 metre rule will be kept for supermarkets. It's not 100% adhered to but it's a good guide for expected behaviour for essential purchasing.
    Non essential retail, pubs, restaurants are definitely in the 'choice' retail/service so idk, maybe 1 metre for side side, 1.5 for forward-back ?

    A logical approach would be different for different scenarios, but the media would scream CONFUSION.....
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 33,796
    Heartbreaking article. We must do better on care homes if there is another wave.


    Why dementia and Covid are such a deadly combination
    Special report: Dementia and Alzheimer’s were the most common pre-existing conditions found among deaths involving coronavirus in April

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/health-fitness/body/dementia-covid-deadly-combination/
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 3,599
    RobD said:

    So he's continuing with 2m then, until it is announced otherwise?

    It has been announced that he can't make up his mind
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