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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Johnson’s big gamble – setting a time table for the lockdown r

SystemSystem Posts: 8,258
edited June 23 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Johnson’s big gamble – setting a time table for the lockdown regulations to be eased

Lockdown bandit Cummings and his team have certainly been hard at work briefing the media on the changes in the lockdown regulations that are due to be announced by the Prime Minister in House of Commons today

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • ClippPClippP Posts: 268
    edited June 23
    First. Johnson is a chancer and a gambler, and in this case he is gambling with all of our lives - all for the sake of a quick headline, and an opportunity to boost his drooping poll ratings.

    He is no more to be trusted than Trump is.
  • Question: is easing of lockdown regulations going to be uniform across the UK, or will there be different levels of easing based on regional/local conditions?
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 6,128
    edited June 23

    Question: is easing of lockdown regulations going to be uniform across the UK, or will there be different levels of easing based on regional/local conditions?

    Welcome back to the site. There are four parts of the UK - England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. As I understand it the changes here will apply to just England
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 14,083
    How realistic, as well, is it going to be for pub-goers to provide names and addresses to be admitted so that they can be identified in future if a fellow pub-goers at the same time contracts the virus? Popping in for a pint is going to be quite a routine.
    In Japan the relevant ministry has published a simple phone app developed by volunteers that assigns you a random number and makes a record when it meets somebody else's bluetooth phone. That way it can send you a notification if you're close to an infected person for a while, and you don't need to handle any personally identifying information.

    Perhaps the British government should also consider some kind of app.

  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 14,083
    On topic it seems a bit mental to be relaxing the response when you're still on quite massive numbers of cases - this says the UK has nearly 1000 per day? But I guess most people will still stay away from the pubs and a lot of them will have a hard time taking enough to pay their staff and they'll have to stay closed, so maybe it's a distinction without a difference.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 26,675
    At least we got to a decision on something that Johnson has been prevaricating about for too long already.

    It was unreasonable to hold out a provisional unlocking and expect millions of businesses large and small to be spending time, effort and money preparing for something that politicians were keeping hypothetical.

    A repeat over the fiasco over two metres is the last thing we need. I am sure like me you have seen the trouble small businesses have already gone to, to communicate the “two metre rule” - homemade laminated notices, painted stones, painted shop windows, marked out floor surfaces, etc - and yet we can all see that soon the government is going to pull the rug out from under this and move the goalposts once again (as it says in the Times).

    It simply wasn’t possible for Johnson to cling to his fence any longer on this one - the ‘decisiveness’ is belated and mostly government spin.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 20,576

    On topic it seems a bit mental to be relaxing the response when you're still on quite massive numbers of cases - this says the UK has nearly 1000 per day? But I guess most people will still stay away from the pubs and a lot of them will have a hard time taking enough to pay their staff and they'll have to stay closed, so maybe it's a distinction without a difference.

    There's gonna be a hardcore PB posse on 24/7 pubcrawl, let's hope their livers last out.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 26,675
    Meanwhile who would want to be with Trump behind the scenes after the Tulsa fiasco?

    CNN: As coverage of the event focused on its shortcomings on Sunday, Trump only grew more upset. He was seething and spent the day lashing out at staff, several sources said. Trump's campaign manager Brad Parscale, who was well aware Trump would be upset by the turnout, hasn't been the only target of Trump's ire. Instead, sources predicted anyone -- White House officials included -- could be fired over what happened.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 26,675
    edited June 23



    In Japan the relevant ministry has published a simple phone app developed by volunteers that assigns you a random number and makes a record when it meets somebody else's bluetooth phone. That way it can send you a notification if you're close to an infected person for a while, and you don't need to handle any personally identifying information.

    Perhaps the British government should also consider some kind of app.

    Lol. Once bitten,,,,
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 26,675
    (CNN)President Donald Trump's is now paying a direct, personal price for his pandemic denial -- the possible shelving of the thing he cares about most, the raucous rallies that defined his political rise and are crucial to his reelection hopes.

    Trump spent the weekend seething about the disappointing crowd for his comeback event in Oklahoma on Saturday night, according to CNN reporting. His hopes of a full-time return to the campaign trail then took another blow with news that eight staffers and two Secret Service agents at the event are now positive for the coronavirus.

    The test results cast Trump's risky decision to go ahead with an indoor rally that doctors fear turned into a super-spreader infectious event in an even worse light. They also show how the virus -- now marching through southern and western states despite Trump's insistence that the US has already "prevailed" in the fight -- is having a disastrous impact on the "Great American Comeback" narrative at the heart of his reelection bid.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 14,649
    IanB2 said:

    (CNN)President Donald Trump's is now paying a direct, personal price for his pandemic denial -- the possible shelving of the thing he cares about most, the raucous rallies that defined his political rise and are crucial to his reelection hopes.

    Trump spent the weekend seething about the disappointing crowd for his comeback event in Oklahoma on Saturday night, according to CNN reporting. His hopes of a full-time return to the campaign trail then took another blow with news that eight staffers and two Secret Service agents at the event are now positive for the coronavirus.

    The test results cast Trump's risky decision to go ahead with an indoor rally that doctors fear turned into a super-spreader infectious event in an even worse light. They also show how the virus -- now marching through southern and western states despite Trump's insistence that the US has already "prevailed" in the fight -- is having a disastrous impact on the "Great American Comeback" narrative at the heart of his reelection bid.

    Prince Prospero
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 3,099

    On topic it seems a bit mental to be relaxing the response when you're still on quite massive numbers of cases - this says the UK has nearly 1000 per day? But I guess most people will still stay away from the pubs and a lot of them will have a hard time taking enough to pay their staff and they'll have to stay closed, so maybe it's a distinction without a difference.

    The country has gone nuts and from what I have seen people are already wandering about in a cavalier devil-may-care frame of mind.

    A second wave is inevitable.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 3,099
    ClippP said:

    First. Johnson is a chancer and a gambler, and in this case he is gambling with all of our lives - all for the sake of a quick headline, and an opportunity to boost his drooping poll ratings.

    He is no more to be trusted than Trump is.

    It's primarily because of the economy and, yes, pressure from the Red Tops.

    When the second wave hits, which it will, he's going to take a hammering.

    Out in the High Streets there is already no social distancing, no hand sanitisers, no temperature checkers, no contact tracing and very few face masks.

    A second wave is coming, probably around mid-July.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 22,336
    edited June 23

    How realistic, as well, is it going to be for pub-goers to provide names and addresses to be admitted so that they can be identified in future if a fellow pub-goers at the same time contracts the virus? Popping in for a pint is going to be quite a routine.

    In Japan the relevant ministry has published a simple phone app developed by volunteers that assigns you a random number and makes a record when it meets somebody else's bluetooth phone. That way it can send you a notification if you're close to an infected person for a while, and you don't need to handle any personally identifying information.

    Perhaps the British government should also consider some kind of app.

    In Korea, venues have QR codes, and customers must have an app which scans them and records the date & time of the visit, I believe. Not much chance of that here.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 3,599
    IanB2 said:

    Meanwhile who would want to be with Trump behind the scenes after the Tulsa fiasco?

    CNN: As coverage of the event focused on its shortcomings on Sunday, Trump only grew more upset. He was seething and spent the day lashing out at staff, several sources said. Trump's campaign manager Brad Parscale, who was well aware Trump would be upset by the turnout, hasn't been the only target of Trump's ire. Instead, sources predicted anyone -- White House officials included -- could be fired over what happened.

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 22,336

    ClippP said:

    First. Johnson is a chancer and a gambler, and in this case he is gambling with all of our lives - all for the sake of a quick headline, and an opportunity to boost his drooping poll ratings.

    He is no more to be trusted than Trump is.

    It's primarily because of the economy and, yes, pressure from the Red Tops.

    When the second wave hits, which it will, he's going to take a hammering.

    Out in the High Streets there is already no social distancing, no hand sanitisers, no temperature checkers, no contact tracing and very few face masks.

    A second wave is coming, probably around mid-July.
    It’s not quite like that - I’d guess that a large majority of the population is taking precautions of varying degrees (nowhere near that wearing masks), but the rest have, or are about to, give up bothering.
    But yes, a second wave looks probable; perhaps not quite as soon as that.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 53,598
    Good morning, everyone.

    Welcome to PB, Mr. Irish.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 14,083
    edited June 23

    On topic it seems a bit mental to be relaxing the response when you're still on quite massive numbers of cases - this says the UK has nearly 1000 per day? But I guess most people will still stay away from the pubs and a lot of them will have a hard time taking enough to pay their staff and they'll have to stay closed, so maybe it's a distinction without a difference.

    The country has gone nuts and from what I have seen people are already wandering about in a cavalier devil-may-care frame of mind.

    A second wave is inevitable.
    I guess even a partial response may make an outsized difference, though.

    Crude calculation: Imagine you've got a pub with 100 people in it, and about 1 person in 1000 is infected. So there's a about a 10% chance of someone in the pub being infected, and that person has 99 people they can infect. Now say half of those people stay at home. You now only have a 5% chance of someone being infected, and if there is someone then they only have 49 people to infect, so you only have one-quarter of the contagion.

    This is obviously a bit wrong because people tend to talk to each other rather than randomly interacting with everyone in the pub, and the virus partly seems to spread through interaction rather than being broadcast to everyone in the room, but there's also a countervailing effect where it's easier for each person or group to keep their distance if there's more space.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 22,336
    We’ll tell you how the new ‘security’ law works after you’ve passed it....

  • felixfelix Posts: 10,561
    Nigelb said:

    ClippP said:

    First. Johnson is a chancer and a gambler, and in this case he is gambling with all of our lives - all for the sake of a quick headline, and an opportunity to boost his drooping poll ratings.

    He is no more to be trusted than Trump is.

    It's primarily because of the economy and, yes, pressure from the Red Tops.

    When the second wave hits, which it will, he's going to take a hammering.

    Out in the High Streets there is already no social distancing, no hand sanitisers, no temperature checkers, no contact tracing and very few face masks.

    A second wave is coming, probably around mid-July.
    It’s not quite like that - I’d guess that a large majority of the population is taking precautions of varying degrees (nowhere near that wearing masks), but the rest have, or are about to, give up bothering.
    But yes, a second wave looks probable; perhaps not quite as soon as that.
    Where I am in Spain lockdown is over but the majority of people I see are being very careful and responsible. Masks are obligatory in all shops and other public spaces - you don't get into a supermarket wothout masks/gloves and sanitisers are everywhere. The level of compliance is very high. Maybe a relic of the more authoritarian past of the country but it is very re-assuring. TBF I live in a relatively quiet area near the coast yes but with only modest numbers of tourists - our beaches are failry quiet other than in August and then nothing like the more famous costas.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 3,599

  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 3,099
    edited June 23
    felix said:

    Nigelb said:

    ClippP said:

    First. Johnson is a chancer and a gambler, and in this case he is gambling with all of our lives - all for the sake of a quick headline, and an opportunity to boost his drooping poll ratings.

    He is no more to be trusted than Trump is.

    It's primarily because of the economy and, yes, pressure from the Red Tops.

    When the second wave hits, which it will, he's going to take a hammering.

    Out in the High Streets there is already no social distancing, no hand sanitisers, no temperature checkers, no contact tracing and very few face masks.

    A second wave is coming, probably around mid-July.
    It’s not quite like that - I’d guess that a large majority of the population is taking precautions of varying degrees (nowhere near that wearing masks), but the rest have, or are about to, give up bothering.
    But yes, a second wave looks probable; perhaps not quite as soon as that.
    Where I am in Spain lockdown is over but the majority of people I see are being very careful and responsible. Masks are obligatory in all shops and other public spaces - you don't get into a supermarket wothout masks/gloves and sanitisers are everywhere. The level of compliance is very high. Maybe a relic of the more authoritarian past of the country but it is very re-assuring. TBF I live in a relatively quiet area near the coast yes but with only modest numbers of tourists - our beaches are failry quiet other than in August and then nothing like the more famous costas.
    Yep.

    Pretty much the opposite right now in the UK. We are crackers. And of course it makes my life more at risk and means I can't get out as much because I know there are too many cavaliers at large.

    It comes from educating people and there's none of that.

    We will be hit badly. Again.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 26,675
    The story next weekend

    On topic it seems a bit mental to be relaxing the response when you're still on quite massive numbers of cases - this says the UK has nearly 1000 per day? But I guess most people will still stay away from the pubs and a lot of them will have a hard time taking enough to pay their staff and they'll have to stay closed, so maybe it's a distinction without a difference.

    The country has gone nuts and from what I have seen people are already wandering about in a cavalier devil-may-care frame of mind.

    A second wave is inevitable.
    I guess even a partial response may make an outsized difference, though.

    Crude calculation: Imagine you've got a pub with 100 people in it, and about 1 person in 1000 is infected. So there's a about a 10% chance of someone in the pub being infected, and that person has 99 people they can infect. Now say half of those people stay at home. You now only have a 5% chance of someone being infected, and if there is someone then they only have 49 people to infect, so you only have one-quarter of the contagion.

    This is obviously a bit wrong because people tend to talk to each other rather than randomly interacting with everyone in the pub, and the virus partly seems to spread through interaction rather than being broadcast to everyone in the room, but there's also a countervailing effect where it's easier for each person or group to keep their distance if there's more space.
    And there is still the riddle of why the infection is progressing so slowly - even in places, such as parts of the US, where next to no precautions are being taken.

    Yes, there is the inexorable rise in case numbers, but nothing like the exponential take off even sensible forecasters were predicting at the outset (leaving aside the PB his & hers Nostradamuses who had ten million cases worldwide down for 9 April - when the reality looks like 30 June or 1 July)
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 3,099
    A second wave of the plague is coming.

    I am Sean and I claim my £5.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 2,958
    You have to get the timing right twice, and the charlatan PM has managed to botch both: arrogantly entering lockdown too late and panicked into leaving it too early.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 22,336
    felix said:

    Nigelb said:

    ClippP said:

    First. Johnson is a chancer and a gambler, and in this case he is gambling with all of our lives - all for the sake of a quick headline, and an opportunity to boost his drooping poll ratings.

    He is no more to be trusted than Trump is.

    It's primarily because of the economy and, yes, pressure from the Red Tops.

    When the second wave hits, which it will, he's going to take a hammering.

    Out in the High Streets there is already no social distancing, no hand sanitisers, no temperature checkers, no contact tracing and very few face masks.

    A second wave is coming, probably around mid-July.
    It’s not quite like that - I’d guess that a large majority of the population is taking precautions of varying degrees (nowhere near that wearing masks), but the rest have, or are about to, give up bothering.
    But yes, a second wave looks probable; perhaps not quite as soon as that.
    Where I am in Spain lockdown is over but the majority of people I see are being very careful and responsible. Masks are obligatory in all shops and other public spaces - you don't get into a supermarket wothout masks/gloves and sanitisers are everywhere. The level of compliance is very high. Maybe a relic of the more authoritarian past of the country but it is very re-assuring. TBF I live in a relatively quiet area near the coast yes but with only modest numbers of tourists - our beaches are failry quiet other than in August and then nothing like the more famous costas.
    Yes, masks are essential in crowded indoor spaces, and most of us aren’t wearing them.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 3,099
    IanB2 said:

    The story next weekend

    On topic it seems a bit mental to be relaxing the response when you're still on quite massive numbers of cases - this says the UK has nearly 1000 per day? But I guess most people will still stay away from the pubs and a lot of them will have a hard time taking enough to pay their staff and they'll have to stay closed, so maybe it's a distinction without a difference.

    The country has gone nuts and from what I have seen people are already wandering about in a cavalier devil-may-care frame of mind.

    A second wave is inevitable.
    I guess even a partial response may make an outsized difference, though.

    Crude calculation: Imagine you've got a pub with 100 people in it, and about 1 person in 1000 is infected. So there's a about a 10% chance of someone in the pub being infected, and that person has 99 people they can infect. Now say half of those people stay at home. You now only have a 5% chance of someone being infected, and if there is someone then they only have 49 people to infect, so you only have one-quarter of the contagion.

    This is obviously a bit wrong because people tend to talk to each other rather than randomly interacting with everyone in the pub, and the virus partly seems to spread through interaction rather than being broadcast to everyone in the room, but there's also a countervailing effect where it's easier for each person or group to keep their distance if there's more space.
    And there is still the riddle of why the infection is progressing so slowly - even in places, such as parts of the US, where next to no precautions are being taken.

    Yes, there is the inexorable rise in case numbers, but nothing like the exponential take off even sensible forecasters were predicting at the outset (leaving aside the PB his & hers Nostradamuses who had ten million cases worldwide down for 9 April - when the reality looks like 30 June or 1 July)
    I think Eadric aka Sean went about 100x more 'full-on-plague' than I but you're being highly disingenuous.

    The world went into lockdown, which is why the virus was more subdued. Countries which didn't, like Brazil, have come a cropper.

    The UK is now less virus-scared than when the first two cases popped up in Newcastle back in March.

    I haven't bothered replying to Edmund's numbers pub game because it was just a series of successively false premises. Like shooting for the moon and reaching Antarctica instead.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 26,675
    Scott_xP said:

    IanB2 said:

    Meanwhile who would want to be with Trump behind the scenes after the Tulsa fiasco?

    CNN: As coverage of the event focused on its shortcomings on Sunday, Trump only grew more upset. He was seething and spent the day lashing out at staff, several sources said. Trump's campaign manager Brad Parscale, who was well aware Trump would be upset by the turnout, hasn't been the only target of Trump's ire. Instead, sources predicted anyone -- White House officials included -- could be fired over what happened.

    Trump was so furious when he saw how thin the crowd was that he threatened to not go onstage, two sources briefed on the discussions told me
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 3,099
    Nigelb said:

    felix said:

    Nigelb said:

    ClippP said:

    First. Johnson is a chancer and a gambler, and in this case he is gambling with all of our lives - all for the sake of a quick headline, and an opportunity to boost his drooping poll ratings.

    He is no more to be trusted than Trump is.

    It's primarily because of the economy and, yes, pressure from the Red Tops.

    When the second wave hits, which it will, he's going to take a hammering.

    Out in the High Streets there is already no social distancing, no hand sanitisers, no temperature checkers, no contact tracing and very few face masks.

    A second wave is coming, probably around mid-July.
    It’s not quite like that - I’d guess that a large majority of the population is taking precautions of varying degrees (nowhere near that wearing masks), but the rest have, or are about to, give up bothering.
    But yes, a second wave looks probable; perhaps not quite as soon as that.
    Where I am in Spain lockdown is over but the majority of people I see are being very careful and responsible. Masks are obligatory in all shops and other public spaces - you don't get into a supermarket wothout masks/gloves and sanitisers are everywhere. The level of compliance is very high. Maybe a relic of the more authoritarian past of the country but it is very re-assuring. TBF I live in a relatively quiet area near the coast yes but with only modest numbers of tourists - our beaches are failry quiet other than in August and then nothing like the more famous costas.
    Yes, masks are essential in crowded indoor spaces, and most of us aren’t wearing them.
    Absolutely correct.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 3,099

    You have to get the timing right twice, and the charlatan PM has managed to botch both: arrogantly entering lockdown too late and panicked into leaving it too early.

    Exactly.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 22,336
    IanB2 said:

    The story next weekend

    On topic it seems a bit mental to be relaxing the response when you're still on quite massive numbers of cases - this says the UK has nearly 1000 per day? But I guess most people will still stay away from the pubs and a lot of them will have a hard time taking enough to pay their staff and they'll have to stay closed, so maybe it's a distinction without a difference.

    The country has gone nuts and from what I have seen people are already wandering about in a cavalier devil-may-care frame of mind.

    A second wave is inevitable.
    I guess even a partial response may make an outsized difference, though.

    Crude calculation: Imagine you've got a pub with 100 people in it, and about 1 person in 1000 is infected. So there's a about a 10% chance of someone in the pub being infected, and that person has 99 people they can infect. Now say half of those people stay at home. You now only have a 5% chance of someone being infected, and if there is someone then they only have 49 people to infect, so you only have one-quarter of the contagion.

    This is obviously a bit wrong because people tend to talk to each other rather than randomly interacting with everyone in the pub, and the virus partly seems to spread through interaction rather than being broadcast to everyone in the room, but there's also a countervailing effect where it's easier for each person or group to keep their distance if there's more space.
    And there is still the riddle of why the infection is progressing so slowly - even in places, such as parts of the US, where next to no precautions are being taken.

    Yes, there is the inexorable rise in case numbers, but nothing like the exponential take off even sensible forecasters were predicting at the outset (leaving aside the PB his & hers Nostradamuses who had ten million cases worldwide down for 9 April - when the reality looks like 30 June or 1 July)
    Is there anywhere that ‘next to no’ precautions are being taken by anyone ?


  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 2,958

    Question: is easing of lockdown regulations going to be uniform across the UK, or will there be different levels of easing based on regional/local conditions?

    Welcome back to the site. There are four parts of the UK - England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. As I understand it the changes here will apply to just England
    I love it when Englishmen refer to their own country as a “part”. Athelstan, Drake, Churchill et al will be spinning in their graves.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 26,675

    IanB2 said:

    The story next weekend

    On topic it seems a bit mental to be relaxing the response when you're still on quite massive numbers of cases - this says the UK has nearly 1000 per day? But I guess most people will still stay away from the pubs and a lot of them will have a hard time taking enough to pay their staff and they'll have to stay closed, so maybe it's a distinction without a difference.

    The country has gone nuts and from what I have seen people are already wandering about in a cavalier devil-may-care frame of mind.

    A second wave is inevitable.
    I guess even a partial response may make an outsized difference, though.

    Crude calculation: Imagine you've got a pub with 100 people in it, and about 1 person in 1000 is infected. So there's a about a 10% chance of someone in the pub being infected, and that person has 99 people they can infect. Now say half of those people stay at home. You now only have a 5% chance of someone being infected, and if there is someone then they only have 49 people to infect, so you only have one-quarter of the contagion.

    This is obviously a bit wrong because people tend to talk to each other rather than randomly interacting with everyone in the pub, and the virus partly seems to spread through interaction rather than being broadcast to everyone in the room, but there's also a countervailing effect where it's easier for each person or group to keep their distance if there's more space.
    And there is still the riddle of why the infection is progressing so slowly - even in places, such as parts of the US, where next to no precautions are being taken.

    Yes, there is the inexorable rise in case numbers, but nothing like the exponential take off even sensible forecasters were predicting at the outset (leaving aside the PB his & hers Nostradamuses who had ten million cases worldwide down for 9 April - when the reality looks like 30 June or 1 July)
    I think Eadric aka Sean went about 100x more 'full-on-plague' than I but you're being highly disingenuous.

    The world went into lockdown, which is why the virus was more subdued. Countries which didn't, like Brazil, have come a cropper.

    The UK is now less virus-scared than when the first two cases popped up in Newcastle back in March.

    I haven't bothered replying to Edmund's numbers pub game because it was just a series of successively false premises. Like shooting for the moon and reaching Antarctica instead.
    Wrong twice over.

    Firstly because the ‘predictions’ that were being posted multiple times daily in March were based on case numbers from relatively few early exposed countries that themselves had locked down.

    Second, because true exponential take off hasn’t yet happened anywhere, lockdown or not.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 20,576
    Nigelb said:

    IanB2 said:

    The story next weekend

    On topic it seems a bit mental to be relaxing the response when you're still on quite massive numbers of cases - this says the UK has nearly 1000 per day? But I guess most people will still stay away from the pubs and a lot of them will have a hard time taking enough to pay their staff and they'll have to stay closed, so maybe it's a distinction without a difference.

    The country has gone nuts and from what I have seen people are already wandering about in a cavalier devil-may-care frame of mind.

    A second wave is inevitable.
    I guess even a partial response may make an outsized difference, though.

    Crude calculation: Imagine you've got a pub with 100 people in it, and about 1 person in 1000 is infected. So there's a about a 10% chance of someone in the pub being infected, and that person has 99 people they can infect. Now say half of those people stay at home. You now only have a 5% chance of someone being infected, and if there is someone then they only have 49 people to infect, so you only have one-quarter of the contagion.

    This is obviously a bit wrong because people tend to talk to each other rather than randomly interacting with everyone in the pub, and the virus partly seems to spread through interaction rather than being broadcast to everyone in the room, but there's also a countervailing effect where it's easier for each person or group to keep their distance if there's more space.
    And there is still the riddle of why the infection is progressing so slowly - even in places, such as parts of the US, where next to no precautions are being taken.

    Yes, there is the inexorable rise in case numbers, but nothing like the exponential take off even sensible forecasters were predicting at the outset (leaving aside the PB his & hers Nostradamuses who had ten million cases worldwide down for 9 April - when the reality looks like 30 June or 1 July)
    Is there anywhere that ‘next to no’ precautions are being taken by anyone ?


    Anywhere in the vicinity of Trump?
  • felixfelix Posts: 10,561
    Nigelb said:

    IanB2 said:

    The story next weekend

    On topic it seems a bit mental to be relaxing the response when you're still on quite massive numbers of cases - this says the UK has nearly 1000 per day? But I guess most people will still stay away from the pubs and a lot of them will have a hard time taking enough to pay their staff and they'll have to stay closed, so maybe it's a distinction without a difference.

    The country has gone nuts and from what I have seen people are already wandering about in a cavalier devil-may-care frame of mind.

    A second wave is inevitable.
    I guess even a partial response may make an outsized difference, though.

    Crude calculation: Imagine you've got a pub with 100 people in it, and about 1 person in 1000 is infected. So there's a about a 10% chance of someone in the pub being infected, and that person has 99 people they can infect. Now say half of those people stay at home. You now only have a 5% chance of someone being infected, and if there is someone then they only have 49 people to infect, so you only have one-quarter of the contagion.

    This is obviously a bit wrong because people tend to talk to each other rather than randomly interacting with everyone in the pub, and the virus partly seems to spread through interaction rather than being broadcast to everyone in the room, but there's also a countervailing effect where it's easier for each person or group to keep their distance if there's more space.
    And there is still the riddle of why the infection is progressing so slowly - even in places, such as parts of the US, where next to no precautions are being taken.

    Yes, there is the inexorable rise in case numbers, but nothing like the exponential take off even sensible forecasters were predicting at the outset (leaving aside the PB his & hers Nostradamuses who had ten million cases worldwide down for 9 April - when the reality looks like 30 June or 1 July)
    Is there anywhere that ‘next to no’ precautions are being taken by anyone ?


    Not in the UK but my family in the NE are and they say lots of people are being very sensible but I get the impression a lot depends on age, education and social class. Twas ever thus.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 3,599
    IanB2 said:

    Trump was so furious when he saw how thin the crowd was that he threatened to not go onstage, two sources briefed on the discussions told me




  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 26,675

    Question: is easing of lockdown regulations going to be uniform across the UK, or will there be different levels of easing based on regional/local conditions?

    Welcome back to the site. There are four parts of the UK - England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. As I understand it the changes here will apply to just England
    I love it when Englishmen refer to their own country as a “part”. Athelstan, Drake, Churchill et al will be spinning in their graves.
    “your boys took a hell of a beating....” ?
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 2,971
    "How realistic, as well, is it going to be for pub-goers to provide names and addresses to be admitted so that they can be identified in future if a fellow pub-goers at the same time contracts the virus? Popping in for a pint is going to be quite a routine."

    It is a routine, it is a very simple routine. You are given a clipboard with a list. You add your name to the list. Then you get served. I did exactly that on Sunday here in Berlin.

  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 18,829

    Question: is easing of lockdown regulations going to be uniform across the UK, or will there be different levels of easing based on regional/local conditions?

    Welcome back to the site. There are four parts of the UK - England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. As I understand it the changes here will apply to just England
    I love it when Englishmen refer to their own country as a “part”. Athelstan, Drake, Churchill et al will be spinning in their graves.
    Good morning everyone. And a fine bright summery one it is. Here, anyway.

    Surely neither Athelstan nor Drake would have considered 'their' England as part of what we now call the UK, would they. Ireland and Wales hadn't been conquered and annexed in Athelstan's time, Scotland was still independent in Drake's. And Ireland didn't formally join the Union until 1801, although its was effectively conquered and annexed several hundred years earlier.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 14,083
    edited June 23


    The world went into lockdown, which is why the virus was more subdued. Countries which didn't, like Brazil, have come a cropper.

    My perspective on this is from a country that didn't go into lockdown as such and hasn't as yet come a cropper, so I'm *somewhat* more less pessimistic than you.

    I reckon some of the least disruptive interventions - things like opening windows - are probably doing a lot the work, so although the very drastic things in the European lockdowns are helpful, you don't necessarily go into very fast exponential growth if you stop doing them.

    A more modest reduction also gets you to a speed of growth at which you're better able to respond, so to annoy you with more numbers games, if you're doubling every 5 days and it takes 2 weeks to detect the results of your actions then you have 8x growth and things are way out of control, but if your failed policy is only producing a doubling every 10 days you can do a course correction after maybe 3x growth, which is a lot less catastrophic. (Apologies to all the dead people in the 3x.)
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 2,971
    edited June 23

    How realistic, as well, is it going to be for pub-goers to provide names and addresses to be admitted so that they can be identified in future if a fellow pub-goers at the same time contracts the virus? Popping in for a pint is going to be quite a routine.

    In Japan the relevant ministry has published a simple phone app developed by volunteers that assigns you a random number and makes a record when it meets somebody else's bluetooth phone. That way it can send you a notification if you're close to an infected person for a while, and you don't need to handle any personally identifying information.

    Perhaps the British government should also consider some kind of app.

    This is also the system released last week in Germany. I though that this was also the model that the UK had finally decided to go with.

    BTW it is not simple bluetooth contact that is measured. Distance and time is also measured, so that low risk bluetooth contacts, such as passing someone on the other side of the road is not counted as an infection risk.

    The other point is that a Corona test result comes with a QR code, so that it's not possible for a numpty to cause chaos by claiming to be infected.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 3,599
    edited June 23
    eristdoof said:

    "How realistic, as well, is it going to be for pub-goers to provide names and addresses to be admitted so that they can be identified in future if a fellow pub-goers at the same time contracts the virus? Popping in for a pint is going to be quite a routine."

    It is a routine, it is a very simple routine. You are given a clipboard with a list. You add your name to the list. Then you get served. I did exactly that on Sunday here in Berlin.

  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 2,971
    Scott_xP said:

    eristdoof said:

    "How realistic, as well, is it going to be for pub-goers to provide names and addresses to be admitted so that they can be identified in future if a fellow pub-goers at the same time contracts the virus? Popping in for a pint is going to be quite a routine."

    It is a routine, it is a very simple routine. You are given a clipboard with a list. You add your name to the list. Then you get served. I did exactly that on Sunday here in Berlin.

    Good joke, but anyone who does that is an idiot. If there is an outbreak traced to that pub, "Goofy" would want to know about it.
  • Happy to be able to see Tenet over the summer but really concerned our case numbers are still too high to be considering this much of a relaxation
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 29,154
    eristdoof said:

    Scott_xP said:

    eristdoof said:

    "How realistic, as well, is it going to be for pub-goers to provide names and addresses to be admitted so that they can be identified in future if a fellow pub-goers at the same time contracts the virus? Popping in for a pint is going to be quite a routine."

    It is a routine, it is a very simple routine. You are given a clipboard with a list. You add your name to the list. Then you get served. I did exactly that on Sunday here in Berlin.

    Good joke, but anyone who does that is an idiot. If there is an outbreak traced to that pub, "Goofy" would want to know about it.
    Come on. We’re talking about a country where the de facto Prime Minister thought the right way to test his eyesight was to go on a 60-mile car drive.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 2,958

    Detailed tables out for that Panelbase poll showing support for Scottish independence at 54%.

    The party breakdowns are fascinating:
    (Yes; No)

    SNP voters 92%; 8%
    Lab voters 43%; 57%
    Lib Dem voters 16%; 84%
    Con voters 6%; 94%

    Country of birth is also a key factor:
    (Yes; No)

    Born in Scotland 56%; 44%
    Born in England 29%; 71%
    Born elsewhere 52%; 48%

    Women are more polarised than men, with young women (under 35) being the strongest pro-independence group at 71%; whereas older women (55+) are the strongest pro-Union group at 61%.

    ABC1s are split pretty much 50/50, while C2DEs have broken decisively for independence.

    https://www.drg.global/wp-content/uploads/W15277-Scottish-Omnibus-tables-for-publication-v1-190620.pdf

    Sample size: 1070 Adults resident in Scotland
    Fieldwork dates: 15 June 2020 - 19 June 2020

    I've said it before, but the crucial swing vote is clearly amongst 2019 SLAB voters. The survival of the union depends very much upon what Labour does.
    I concur. It is going to be current Scottish Labour voters, supporters and sympathisers who decide the future of the country. They are just a modest group these days, at about 20% (if we are being generous) of the adult population, but that is more than plenty to swing it.

    What amazes me is back when SLab were riding high at 40%+, about 40% of their voters were pro-independence. One would logically assume that as folk drifted from SLab to SNP the proportion of SLab voters backing independence would drop, leaving SLab as a strongly British nationalist party, but this has not happened. As their vote shrunk, the proportion supporting independence has stayed pretty steady in the 30-40% band, and now seems to be showing an uptick, to 43%. This is extremely heartening.

    The significant number of Scottish Liberal Democrats, 16%, supporting independence is also an uptick, and most welcome. Call it the Judy Steel tradition.

    The question is, does it really matter what the SLab and SLD leaderships do? Thus far they have been ineffective at persuading significant chunks of their support on the merits of the Union. What more can they do to stop the drift to Yes?
  • kamskikamski Posts: 992
    The problem with writing down your contact details when you go into a cafe etc, is that it it does rely on people who test positive having a pretty good idea of when and where they were in the last two weeks.

    This would especially be a problem if someone tests positive on admission to hospital and might not be in a condition to go through all their recent movements.

    This is where an app has a big advantage - as well as covering other spaces where filling in forms isn't going to happen, like public transport and shops.

  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 2,971
    IanB2 said:

    The story next weekend

    On topic it seems a bit mental to be relaxing the response when you're still on quite massive numbers of cases - this says the UK has nearly 1000 per day? But I guess most people will still stay away from the pubs and a lot of them will have a hard time taking enough to pay their staff and they'll have to stay closed, so maybe it's a distinction without a difference.

    The country has gone nuts and from what I have seen people are already wandering about in a cavalier devil-may-care frame of mind.

    A second wave is inevitable.
    I guess even a partial response may make an outsized difference, though.

    Crude calculation: Imagine you've got a pub with 100 people in it, and about 1 person in 1000 is infected. So there's a about a 10% chance of someone in the pub being infected, and that person has 99 people they can infect. Now say half of those people stay at home. You now only have a 5% chance of someone being infected, and if there is someone then they only have 49 people to infect, so you only have one-quarter of the contagion.

    This is obviously a bit wrong because people tend to talk to each other rather than randomly interacting with everyone in the pub, and the virus partly seems to spread through interaction rather than being broadcast to everyone in the room, but there's also a countervailing effect where it's easier for each person or group to keep their distance if there's more space.
    And there is still the riddle of why the infection is progressing so slowly - even in places, such as parts of the US, where next to no precautions are being taken.

    Yes, there is the inexorable rise in case numbers, but nothing like the exponential take off even sensible forecasters were predicting at the outset (leaving aside the PB his & hers Nostradamuses who had ten million cases worldwide down for 9 April - when the reality looks like 30 June or 1 July)
    10 Million *confirmed* infected people worldwide by the end of June is dramatic enough.

    Climate change suffers under a similar problem: One group publishes a study overestimating the speed of global warming with confidence intervals. The extreme of that interval is then reported as the headline figure. Then no one takes notice of the good but still worrying estimates, because they are nothing compared to the sensationalist headlines.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 5,056

    On topic it seems a bit mental to be relaxing the response when you're still on quite massive numbers of cases - this says the UK has nearly 1000 per day? But I guess most people will still stay away from the pubs and a lot of them will have a hard time taking enough to pay their staff and they'll have to stay closed, so maybe it's a distinction without a difference.

    There's gonna be a hardcore PB posse on 24/7 pubcrawl, let's hope their livers last out.
    I'm only showing up at last knockings for the brawl and/or stabbings.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 2,958
    IanB2 said:

    Question: is easing of lockdown regulations going to be uniform across the UK, or will there be different levels of easing based on regional/local conditions?

    Welcome back to the site. There are four parts of the UK - England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. As I understand it the changes here will apply to just England
    I love it when Englishmen refer to their own country as a “part”. Athelstan, Drake, Churchill et al will be spinning in their graves.
    “your boys took a hell of a beating....” ?
    That night exposed the deep, underlying sentiments of Norwegians to the English, which I find surprising. Although not as pro-English as the Swedes, the Norwegians must still be in the top ten of England-loving nations. And yet, and yet, that football commentary. There are some deep waters there. Are the effects of the notorious Norway Debate, and the disastrous Norwegian campaign still present in modern Norwegian society?
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 2,971
    kamski said:

    The problem with writing down your contact details when you go into a cafe etc, is that it it does rely on people who test positive having a pretty good idea of when and where they were in the last two weeks.

    This would especially be a problem if someone tests positive on admission to hospital and might not be in a condition to go through all their recent movements.

    This is where an app has a big advantage - as well as covering other spaces where filling in forms isn't going to happen, like public transport and shops.

    Yes, but it does help and the two are not mutually exclusive.
    For example I know people who do not have the Corona-Warn app, because they do not have a smart phone (or a very old one). Such people still go to bars now and then.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 16,365
    Nigelb said:

    felix said:

    Nigelb said:

    ClippP said:

    First. Johnson is a chancer and a gambler, and in this case he is gambling with all of our lives - all for the sake of a quick headline, and an opportunity to boost his drooping poll ratings.

    He is no more to be trusted than Trump is.

    It's primarily because of the economy and, yes, pressure from the Red Tops.

    When the second wave hits, which it will, he's going to take a hammering.

    Out in the High Streets there is already no social distancing, no hand sanitisers, no temperature checkers, no contact tracing and very few face masks.

    A second wave is coming, probably around mid-July.
    It’s not quite like that - I’d guess that a large majority of the population is taking precautions of varying degrees (nowhere near that wearing masks), but the rest have, or are about to, give up bothering.
    But yes, a second wave looks probable; perhaps not quite as soon as that.
    Where I am in Spain lockdown is over but the majority of people I see are being very careful and responsible. Masks are obligatory in all shops and other public spaces - you don't get into a supermarket wothout masks/gloves and sanitisers are everywhere. The level of compliance is very high. Maybe a relic of the more authoritarian past of the country but it is very re-assuring. TBF I live in a relatively quiet area near the coast yes but with only modest numbers of tourists - our beaches are failry quiet other than in August and then nothing like the more famous costas.
    Yes, masks are essential in crowded indoor spaces, and most of us aren’t wearing them.
    Compliance by patients and staff at the hospital is close to 100% in corridors, lifts, and waiting areas.

    British people are fine with masks, provided others are wearing them too. Ours is a embarrassed nation, and it is embarrassing to be inappropriately dressed. Britons will wear them if others do, and not if others do not. Peer pressure is needed.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 2,971
    ydoethur said:

    eristdoof said:

    Scott_xP said:

    eristdoof said:

    "How realistic, as well, is it going to be for pub-goers to provide names and addresses to be admitted so that they can be identified in future if a fellow pub-goers at the same time contracts the virus? Popping in for a pint is going to be quite a routine."

    It is a routine, it is a very simple routine. You are given a clipboard with a list. You add your name to the list. Then you get served. I did exactly that on Sunday here in Berlin.

    Good joke, but anyone who does that is an idiot. If there is an outbreak traced to that pub, "Goofy" would want to know about it.
    Come on. We’re talking about a country where the de facto Prime Minister thought the right way to test his eyesight was to go on a 60-mile car drive.
    I did not say it would not happen, I said "but anyone who does that is an idiot"
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 18,829
    eristdoof said:

    Scott_xP said:

    eristdoof said:

    "How realistic, as well, is it going to be for pub-goers to provide names and addresses to be admitted so that they can be identified in future if a fellow pub-goers at the same time contracts the virus? Popping in for a pint is going to be quite a routine."

    It is a routine, it is a very simple routine. You are given a clipboard with a list. You add your name to the list. Then you get served. I did exactly that on Sunday here in Berlin.

    Good joke, but anyone who does that is an idiot. If there is an outbreak traced to that pub, "Goofy" would want to know about it.
    If I write John Smith will it be accepted? I do think the Japanese app sounds a got idea, in the circs., although I'm very suspicious of anything that lets the 'authorities' know where I am.

    Not because I need to be, of course, but on principle!
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 26,675
    edited June 23
    eristdoof said:

    IanB2 said:

    The story next weekend

    On topic it seems a bit mental to be relaxing the response when you're still on quite massive numbers of cases - this says the UK has nearly 1000 per day? But I guess most people will still stay away from the pubs and a lot of them will have a hard time taking enough to pay their staff and they'll have to stay closed, so maybe it's a distinction without a difference.

    The country has gone nuts and from what I have seen people are already wandering about in a cavalier devil-may-care frame of mind.

    A second wave is inevitable.
    I guess even a partial response may make an outsized difference, though.

    Crude calculation: Imagine you've got a pub with 100 people in it, and about 1 person in 1000 is infected. So there's a about a 10% chance of someone in the pub being infected, and that person has 99 people they can infect. Now say half of those people stay at home. You now only have a 5% chance of someone being infected, and if there is someone then they only have 49 people to infect, so you only have one-quarter of the contagion.

    This is obviously a bit wrong because people tend to talk to each other rather than randomly interacting with everyone in the pub, and the virus partly seems to spread through interaction rather than being broadcast to everyone in the room, but there's also a countervailing effect where it's easier for each person or group to keep their distance if there's more space.
    And there is still the riddle of why the infection is progressing so slowly - even in places, such as parts of the US, where next to no precautions are being taken.

    Yes, there is the inexorable rise in case numbers, but nothing like the exponential take off even sensible forecasters were predicting at the outset (leaving aside the PB his & hers Nostradamuses who had ten million cases worldwide down for 9 April - when the reality looks like 30 June or 1 July)
    10 Million *confirmed* infected people worldwide by the end of June is dramatic enough.

    Climate change suffers under a similar problem: One group publishes a study overestimating the speed of global warming with confidence intervals. The extreme of that interval is then reported as the headline figure. Then no one takes notice of the good but still worrying estimates, because they are nothing compared to the sensationalist headlines.
    Yes, the situation we face is certainly serious.

    But the PB predictions that were being made in March were ludicrous; now we can relax and see that it was all nonsense, but they were being advanced as serious forecasts at the time.

    By now we were supposed to have passed one billion confirmed cases - a hundred times the current level - a level to be reached not now, but much earlier, way back in early May.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 2,971

    eristdoof said:

    Scott_xP said:

    eristdoof said:

    "How realistic, as well, is it going to be for pub-goers to provide names and addresses to be admitted so that they can be identified in future if a fellow pub-goers at the same time contracts the virus? Popping in for a pint is going to be quite a routine."

    It is a routine, it is a very simple routine. You are given a clipboard with a list. You add your name to the list. Then you get served. I did exactly that on Sunday here in Berlin.

    Good joke, but anyone who does that is an idiot. If there is an outbreak traced to that pub, "Goofy" would want to know about it.
    If I write John Smith will it be accepted? I do think the Japanese app sounds a got idea, in the circs., although I'm very suspicious of anything that lets the 'authorities' know where I am.

    Not because I need to be, of course, but on principle!
    It would be accepted. But you wouldn't get to know if a guy on the table next to you is corona positive.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 2,538

    IanB2 said:

    Question: is easing of lockdown regulations going to be uniform across the UK, or will there be different levels of easing based on regional/local conditions?

    Welcome back to the site. There are four parts of the UK - England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. As I understand it the changes here will apply to just England
    I love it when Englishmen refer to their own country as a “part”. Athelstan, Drake, Churchill et al will be spinning in their graves.
    “your boys took a hell of a beating....” ?
    That night exposed the deep, underlying sentiments of Norwegians to the English, which I find surprising. Although not as pro-English as the Swedes, the Norwegians must still be in the top ten of England-loving nations. And yet, and yet, that football commentary. There are some deep waters there. Are the effects of the notorious Norway Debate, and the disastrous Norwegian campaign still present in modern Norwegian society?
    I regard that as funny and affectionate. It also reveals a deeper knowledge of the uk than probably most EDL members enjoy; the impromptu namecheck is pretty impressive:

    "Lord Nelson, Lord Beaverbrook, Sir Winston Churchill, Sir Anthony Eden, Clement Attlee, Henry Cooper, Lady Diana, vi har slått dem alle sammen, vi har slått dem alle sammen! (we have beaten them all, we have beaten them all!). Maggie Thatcher, can you hear me? Maggie Thatcher ... your boys took a hell of a beating! Your boys took a hell of a beating!"
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 2,971
    edited June 23

    eristdoof said:

    Scott_xP said:

    eristdoof said:

    "How realistic, as well, is it going to be for pub-goers to provide names and addresses to be admitted so that they can be identified in future if a fellow pub-goers at the same time contracts the virus? Popping in for a pint is going to be quite a routine."

    It is a routine, it is a very simple routine. You are given a clipboard with a list. You add your name to the list. Then you get served. I did exactly that on Sunday here in Berlin.

    Good joke, but anyone who does that is an idiot. If there is an outbreak traced to that pub, "Goofy" would want to know about it.
    If I write John Smith will it be accepted? I do think the Japanese app sounds a got idea, in the circs., although I'm very suspicious of anything that lets the 'authorities' know where I am.

    Not because I need to be, of course, but on principle!
    Have you downloaded any free apps on a smartphone? They know shed loads of information about you, and where you are.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 26,675

    IanB2 said:

    Question: is easing of lockdown regulations going to be uniform across the UK, or will there be different levels of easing based on regional/local conditions?

    Welcome back to the site. There are four parts of the UK - England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. As I understand it the changes here will apply to just England
    I love it when Englishmen refer to their own country as a “part”. Athelstan, Drake, Churchill et al will be spinning in their graves.
    “your boys took a hell of a beating....” ?
    That night exposed the deep, underlying sentiments of Norwegians to the English, which I find surprising. Although not as pro-English as the Swedes, the Norwegians must still be in the top ten of England-loving nations. And yet, and yet, that football commentary. There are some deep waters there. Are the effects of the notorious Norway Debate, and the disastrous Norwegian campaign still present in modern Norwegian society?
    It showed a regard for our footballing prowess that was somewhat behind the times.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 28,857

    Question: is easing of lockdown regulations going to be uniform across the UK, or will there be different levels of easing based on regional/local conditions?

    Yes
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 29,154
    edited June 23
    malcolmg said:

    Question: is easing of lockdown regulations going to be uniform across the UK, or will there be different levels of easing based on regional/local conditions?

    Yes
    Yes it is, or yes it isn’t? :smiley:

    On a serious point, I would have thought it’s more intelligent to start looking at local authority lockdowns for any potential second wave. It’s silly to keep Golspie under tight control because of cases in Kilmarnock.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 2,538
    ydoethur said:

    malcolmg said:

    Question: is easing of lockdown regulations going to be uniform across the UK, or will there be different levels of easing based on regional/local conditions?

    Yes
    Yes it is, or yes it isn’t? :smiley:
    Yes.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 2,971
    IanB2 said:

    eristdoof said:

    IanB2 said:

    The story next weekend

    On topic it seems a bit mental to be relaxing the response when you're still on quite massive numbers of cases - this says the UK has nearly 1000 per day? But I guess most people will still stay away from the pubs and a lot of them will have a hard time taking enough to pay their staff and they'll have to stay closed, so maybe it's a distinction without a difference.

    The country has gone nuts and from what I have seen people are already wandering about in a cavalier devil-may-care frame of mind.

    A second wave is inevitable.
    I guess even a partial response may make an outsized difference, though.

    Crude calculation: Imagine you've got a pub with 100 people in it, and about 1 person in 1000 is infected. So there's a about a 10% chance of someone in the pub being infected, and that person has 99 people they can infect. Now say half of those people stay at home. You now only have a 5% chance of someone being infected, and if there is someone then they only have 49 people to infect, so you only have one-quarter of the contagion.

    This is obviously a bit wrong because people tend to talk to each other rather than randomly interacting with everyone in the pub, and the virus partly seems to spread through interaction rather than being broadcast to everyone in the room, but there's also a countervailing effect where it's easier for each person or group to keep their distance if there's more space.
    And there is still the riddle of why the infection is progressing so slowly - even in places, such as parts of the US, where next to no precautions are being taken.

    Yes, there is the inexorable rise in case numbers, but nothing like the exponential take off even sensible forecasters were predicting at the outset (leaving aside the PB his & hers Nostradamuses who had ten million cases worldwide down for 9 April - when the reality looks like 30 June or 1 July)
    10 Million *confirmed* infected people worldwide by the end of June is dramatic enough.

    Climate change suffers under a similar problem: One group publishes a study overestimating the speed of global warming with confidence intervals. The extreme of that interval is then reported as the headline figure. Then no one takes notice of the good but still worrying estimates, because they are nothing compared to the sensationalist headlines.
    Yes, the situation we face is certainly serious.

    But the PB predictions that were being made in March were ludicrous; now we can relax and see that it was all nonsense, but they were being advanced as serious forecasts at the time.

    By now we were supposed to have passed one billion confirmed cases - a hundred times the current level - a level to be reached not now, but much earlier, way back in early May.
    I agree, and thanks for calling out the very dodgy predictions at the time, as I was also doing. I was also calling out the peopl who were claiming a 1 day drop in deaths in late march indicated having "passed the peak".
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 14,933
    Now that's what I call stimulus.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 26,675
    Foxy said:

    Nigelb said:

    felix said:

    Nigelb said:

    ClippP said:

    First. Johnson is a chancer and a gambler, and in this case he is gambling with all of our lives - all for the sake of a quick headline, and an opportunity to boost his drooping poll ratings.

    He is no more to be trusted than Trump is.

    It's primarily because of the economy and, yes, pressure from the Red Tops.

    When the second wave hits, which it will, he's going to take a hammering.

    Out in the High Streets there is already no social distancing, no hand sanitisers, no temperature checkers, no contact tracing and very few face masks.

    A second wave is coming, probably around mid-July.
    It’s not quite like that - I’d guess that a large majority of the population is taking precautions of varying degrees (nowhere near that wearing masks), but the rest have, or are about to, give up bothering.
    But yes, a second wave looks probable; perhaps not quite as soon as that.
    Where I am in Spain lockdown is over but the majority of people I see are being very careful and responsible. Masks are obligatory in all shops and other public spaces - you don't get into a supermarket wothout masks/gloves and sanitisers are everywhere. The level of compliance is very high. Maybe a relic of the more authoritarian past of the country but it is very re-assuring. TBF I live in a relatively quiet area near the coast yes but with only modest numbers of tourists - our beaches are failry quiet other than in August and then nothing like the more famous costas.
    Yes, masks are essential in crowded indoor spaces, and most of us aren’t wearing them.
    Compliance by patients and staff at the hospital is close to 100% in corridors, lifts, and waiting areas.

    British people are fine with masks, provided others are wearing them too. Ours is a embarrassed nation, and it is embarrassing to be inappropriately dressed. Britons will wear them if others do, and not if others do not. Peer pressure is needed.
    That reminds me of my QM2 crossings last year; on formal nights every Brit followed the dinner jacket dress code, and there are plenty of posts on travel forums from anxious Brits eager to find out what they could and couldn’t wear, whereas there were plenty of Americans and Canadians relaxed enough to bring their own interpretations to the table.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 28,857
    Interesting breakdown of recent poll and shows it is only when and not if on independence.
    The survey of 1,070 Scottish residents over the age of 16 found support for independence was 54% to 46%, once Don’t Knows were removed.

    When you include undecided voters, support for independence is leading by 50% to 43%, with 7% of Don’t Knows. This relates to a stunning 338,000 additional Yes voters compared to 2014, assuming similar turnout levels.
    Breakdown

    The poll found that male respondents would support independence by 58% to 42% and females were still marginally in favour of the union by 51% to 49%.

    The unionist lead in female voters is dependent on age, with females aged between 15 and 34 supporting independence by a massive 73% to 27%. That was higher than the equivalent age group for men, where independence led by 68% to 32%.

    Indeed the unionist vote relies on three key groups; firstly males and females over the age of 55 where the union still leads 57% to 43%, females over the age of 55 where the union leads 61% to 39% and Conservative voters.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 28,857
    Scott_xP said:


    ooooooft
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 2,080
    malcolmg said:

    Interesting breakdown of recent poll and shows it is only when and not if on independence.
    The survey of 1,070 Scottish residents over the age of 16 found support for independence was 54% to 46%, once Don’t Knows were removed.

    When you include undecided voters, support for independence is leading by 50% to 43%, with 7% of Don’t Knows. This relates to a stunning 338,000 additional Yes voters compared to 2014, assuming similar turnout levels.
    Breakdown

    The poll found that male respondents would support independence by 58% to 42% and females were still marginally in favour of the union by 51% to 49%.

    The unionist lead in female voters is dependent on age, with females aged between 15 and 34 supporting independence by a massive 73% to 27%. That was higher than the equivalent age group for men, where independence led by 68% to 32%.

    Indeed the unionist vote relies on three key groups; firstly males and females over the age of 55 where the union still leads 57% to 43%, females over the age of 55 where the union leads 61% to 39% and Conservative voters.

    There isn't going to be a vote....
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 2,958
    IshmaelZ said:

    IanB2 said:

    Question: is easing of lockdown regulations going to be uniform across the UK, or will there be different levels of easing based on regional/local conditions?

    Welcome back to the site. There are four parts of the UK - England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. As I understand it the changes here will apply to just England
    I love it when Englishmen refer to their own country as a “part”. Athelstan, Drake, Churchill et al will be spinning in their graves.
    “your boys took a hell of a beating....” ?
    That night exposed the deep, underlying sentiments of Norwegians to the English, which I find surprising. Although not as pro-English as the Swedes, the Norwegians must still be in the top ten of England-loving nations. And yet, and yet, that football commentary. There are some deep waters there. Are the effects of the notorious Norway Debate, and the disastrous Norwegian campaign still present in modern Norwegian society?
    I regard that as funny and affectionate. It also reveals a deeper knowledge of the uk than probably most EDL members enjoy; the impromptu namecheck is pretty impressive:

    "Lord Nelson, Lord Beaverbrook, Sir Winston Churchill, Sir Anthony Eden, Clement Attlee, Henry Cooper, Lady Diana, vi har slått dem alle sammen, vi har slått dem alle sammen! (we have beaten them all, we have beaten them all!). Maggie Thatcher, can you hear me? Maggie Thatcher ... your boys took a hell of a beating! Your boys took a hell of a beating!"
    Beaverbrook is an interesting one. Long a friend of the Nazis, as late as 1940 he was trying to get a peace deal with Hitler, just as his pal was invading Norway.

    The list is odd. And perhaps more revealing of Norwegians’ understanding than you might initially see.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 31,378
    felix said:

    Nigelb said:

    ClippP said:

    First. Johnson is a chancer and a gambler, and in this case he is gambling with all of our lives - all for the sake of a quick headline, and an opportunity to boost his drooping poll ratings.

    He is no more to be trusted than Trump is.

    It's primarily because of the economy and, yes, pressure from the Red Tops.

    When the second wave hits, which it will, he's going to take a hammering.

    Out in the High Streets there is already no social distancing, no hand sanitisers, no temperature checkers, no contact tracing and very few face masks.

    A second wave is coming, probably around mid-July.
    It’s not quite like that - I’d guess that a large majority of the population is taking precautions of varying degrees (nowhere near that wearing masks), but the rest have, or are about to, give up bothering.
    But yes, a second wave looks probable; perhaps not quite as soon as that.
    Where I am in Spain lockdown is over but the majority of people I see are being very careful and responsible. Masks are obligatory in all shops and other public spaces - you don't get into a supermarket wothout masks/gloves and sanitisers are everywhere. The level of compliance is very high. Maybe a relic of the more authoritarian past of the country but it is very re-assuring. TBF I live in a relatively quiet area near the coast yes but with only modest numbers of tourists - our beaches are failry quiet other than in August and then nothing like the more famous costas.
    That matches, pretty much, my experience in Los Angeles.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 16,365
    edited June 23
    IanB2 said:

    Foxy said:

    Nigelb said:

    felix said:

    Nigelb said:

    ClippP said:

    First. Johnson is a chancer and a gambler, and in this case he is gambling with all of our lives - all for the sake of a quick headline, and an opportunity to boost his drooping poll ratings.

    He is no more to be trusted than Trump is.

    It's primarily because of the economy and, yes, pressure from the Red Tops.

    When the second wave hits, which it will, he's going to take a hammering.

    Out in the High Streets there is already no social distancing, no hand sanitisers, no temperature checkers, no contact tracing and very few face masks.

    A second wave is coming, probably around mid-July.
    It’s not quite like that - I’d guess that a large majority of the population is taking precautions of varying degrees (nowhere near that wearing masks), but the rest have, or are about to, give up bothering.
    But yes, a second wave looks probable; perhaps not quite as soon as that.
    Where I am in Spain lockdown is over but the majority of people I see are being very careful and responsible. Masks are obligatory in all shops and other public spaces - you don't get into a supermarket wothout masks/gloves and sanitisers are everywhere. The level of compliance is very high. Maybe a relic of the more authoritarian past of the country but it is very re-assuring. TBF I live in a relatively quiet area near the coast yes but with only modest numbers of tourists - our beaches are failry quiet other than in August and then nothing like the more famous costas.
    Yes, masks are essential in crowded indoor spaces, and most of us aren’t wearing them.
    Compliance by patients and staff at the hospital is close to 100% in corridors, lifts, and waiting areas.

    British people are fine with masks, provided others are wearing them too. Ours is a embarrassed nation, and it is embarrassing to be inappropriately dressed. Britons will wear them if others do, and not if others do not. Peer pressure is needed.
    That reminds me of my QM2 crossings last year; on formal nights every Brit followed the dinner jacket dress code, and there are plenty of posts on travel forums from anxious Brits eager to find out what they could and couldn’t wear, whereas there were plenty of Americans and Canadians relaxed enough to bring their own interpretations to the table.
    One scientific conference that I go to most years has a dress code of Black Tie or National Costume for the conference dinner. I stick to Black Tie, but we see some spectacular flowing Nigerian robes, Indians who could pass for Maharajahs, Full dress Military Uniforms. Great fun.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 28,857
    ydoethur said:

    malcolmg said:

    Question: is easing of lockdown regulations going to be uniform across the UK, or will there be different levels of easing based on regional/local conditions?

    Yes
    Yes it is, or yes it isn’t? :smiley:

    On a serious point, I would have thought it’s more intelligent to start looking at local authority lockdowns for any potential second wave. It’s silly to keep Golspie under tight control because of cases in Kilmarnock.
    I think it will remain different for the constituent countries of the UK, I doubt Sturgeon will be rushed now, fatso cutting off sending Scotland's money back is the only reason I can think of. I think as you say they could easily ease in parts of Scotland, most of it is confined to the central belt, though highlands and islands may not be desperate for an influx.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 54,584
    Nigelb said:

    We’ll tell you how the new ‘security’ law works after you’ve passed it....

    I think everyone knows the answer to the question 'what will it cover?' Will be 'whatever we can get away with'.

    It's sad to see them find ways to win.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 28,857

    malcolmg said:

    Interesting breakdown of recent poll and shows it is only when and not if on independence.
    The survey of 1,070 Scottish residents over the age of 16 found support for independence was 54% to 46%, once Don’t Knows were removed.

    When you include undecided voters, support for independence is leading by 50% to 43%, with 7% of Don’t Knows. This relates to a stunning 338,000 additional Yes voters compared to 2014, assuming similar turnout levels.
    Breakdown

    The poll found that male respondents would support independence by 58% to 42% and females were still marginally in favour of the union by 51% to 49%.

    The unionist lead in female voters is dependent on age, with females aged between 15 and 34 supporting independence by a massive 73% to 27%. That was higher than the equivalent age group for men, where independence led by 68% to 32%.

    Indeed the unionist vote relies on three key groups; firstly males and females over the age of 55 where the union still leads 57% to 43%, females over the age of 55 where the union leads 61% to 39% and Conservative voters.

    There isn't going to be a vote....
    I will bite ............ Oh yes there is!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 54,584
    Dura_Ace said:

    On topic it seems a bit mental to be relaxing the response when you're still on quite massive numbers of cases - this says the UK has nearly 1000 per day? But I guess most people will still stay away from the pubs and a lot of them will have a hard time taking enough to pay their staff and they'll have to stay closed, so maybe it's a distinction without a difference.

    There's gonna be a hardcore PB posse on 24/7 pubcrawl, let's hope their livers last out.
    I'm only showing up at last knockings for the brawl and/or stabbings.
    It doesnt count if you only show up at the end, it's like jumping out of the crowd at a marathon and sprinting the last 100m.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 26,675
    rcs1000 said:

    felix said:

    Nigelb said:

    ClippP said:

    First. Johnson is a chancer and a gambler, and in this case he is gambling with all of our lives - all for the sake of a quick headline, and an opportunity to boost his drooping poll ratings.

    He is no more to be trusted than Trump is.

    It's primarily because of the economy and, yes, pressure from the Red Tops.

    When the second wave hits, which it will, he's going to take a hammering.

    Out in the High Streets there is already no social distancing, no hand sanitisers, no temperature checkers, no contact tracing and very few face masks.

    A second wave is coming, probably around mid-July.
    It’s not quite like that - I’d guess that a large majority of the population is taking precautions of varying degrees (nowhere near that wearing masks), but the rest have, or are about to, give up bothering.
    But yes, a second wave looks probable; perhaps not quite as soon as that.
    Where I am in Spain lockdown is over but the majority of people I see are being very careful and responsible. Masks are obligatory in all shops and other public spaces - you don't get into a supermarket wothout masks/gloves and sanitisers are everywhere. The level of compliance is very high. Maybe a relic of the more authoritarian past of the country but it is very re-assuring. TBF I live in a relatively quiet area near the coast yes but with only modest numbers of tourists - our beaches are failry quiet other than in August and then nothing like the more famous costas.
    That matches, pretty much, my experience in Los Angeles.
    Yet yesterday California had over 5,500 new infections and Spain just 232 ??
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 7,673
    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    Foxy said:

    Nigelb said:

    felix said:

    Nigelb said:

    ClippP said:

    First. Johnson is a chancer and a gambler, and in this case he is gambling with all of our lives - all for the sake of a quick headline, and an opportunity to boost his drooping poll ratings.

    He is no more to be trusted than Trump is.

    It's primarily because of the economy and, yes, pressure from the Red Tops.

    When the second wave hits, which it will, he's going to take a hammering.

    Out in the High Streets there is already no social distancing, no hand sanitisers, no temperature checkers, no contact tracing and very few face masks.

    A second wave is coming, probably around mid-July.
    It’s not quite like that - I’d guess that a large majority of the population is taking precautions of varying degrees (nowhere near that wearing masks), but the rest have, or are about to, give up bothering.
    But yes, a second wave looks probable; perhaps not quite as soon as that.
    Where I am in Spain lockdown is over but the majority of people I see are being very careful and responsible. Masks are obligatory in all shops and other public spaces - you don't get into a supermarket wothout masks/gloves and sanitisers are everywhere. The level of compliance is very high. Maybe a relic of the more authoritarian past of the country but it is very re-assuring. TBF I live in a relatively quiet area near the coast yes but with only modest numbers of tourists - our beaches are failry quiet other than in August and then nothing like the more famous costas.
    Yes, masks are essential in crowded indoor spaces, and most of us aren’t wearing them.
    Compliance by patients and staff at the hospital is close to 100% in corridors, lifts, and waiting areas.

    British people are fine with masks, provided others are wearing them too. Ours is a embarrassed nation, and it is embarrassing to be inappropriately dressed. Britons will wear them if others do, and not if others do not. Peer pressure is needed.
    That reminds me of my QM2 crossings last year; on formal nights every Brit followed the dinner jacket dress code, and there are plenty of posts on travel forums from anxious Brits eager to find out what they could and couldn’t wear, whereas there were plenty of Americans and Canadians relaxed enough to bring their own interpretations to the table.
    One scientific conference that I go to most years has a dress code of Black Tie or National Costume for the conference dinner. I stick to Black Tie, but we see some spectacular flowing Nigerian robes, Indians who could pass for Maharajahs, Full dress Military Uniforms. Great fun.
    Oh go on, Foxy, wear your Morris Dancing outfit next year. You know you want to!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 54,584
    edited June 23

    Question: is easing of lockdown regulations going to be uniform across the UK, or will there be different levels of easing based on regional/local conditions?

    Welcome back to the site. There are four parts of the UK - England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. As I understand it the changes here will apply to just England
    I love it when Englishmen refer to their own country as a “part”. Athelstan, Drake, Churchill et al will be spinning in their graves.
    Why would that bother me? I'm not just English I'm British as well, I dont think it diminishes the former any more than acknowledging it is part of Europe (or the EU, when that was the case), and I think Aethelstan and Drake in particular would probably find much else to spin about. Indeed, I think being a part of something makes England greater.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 31,190
    June is going to be another month with a £50bn+ deficit. Anyone who claims that we are coming out of the lockdown too soon is just completely ignoring the economic realities of the situation. The government cannot continue to pay its 5m employees and another 8m furloughed without income coming in.
    It is of course highly regrettable that after 3 months of this we have still not got much of a trace and test system in place. I am not sure that there is anything inevitable about a second wave but such a system would have reduced the risk. In my experience people take social distancing at least as seriously as they should, arguably much more so given the relatively modest number of cases in the community right now but the lockdown has collapsed around the edges with families and friends once again visiting each other relatively freely and kids meeting up with their pals as a matter of routine.
    Scotland is in serious danger of being left behind in all this with an overly cautious and maternalistic government being much more equivocal about normal life starting again. This will cost hundreds of Scottish businesses and thousands of Scottish jobs. Ironically, the additional weakening of the Scottish economy and the inevitably greater reliance upon English subsidy just might save the Union.

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 54,584
    What gets me is countries and places ending lockdownsvon timetables even though their deaths let alone cases are still very high. Is it about the economy, the politics of changing course, the inevitability of a second wave?
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 10,905
    I see China has taken to silencing people talking about Covid again.

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 31,190
    kle4 said:

    What gets me is countries and places ending lockdownsvon timetables even though their deaths let alone cases are still very high. Is it about the economy, the politics of changing course, the inevitability of a second wave?

    Of course it is about the economy. It is a balance between competing harms which is a political call and always was. Hiding behind scientists was never a great look and resulted in much too narrow a focus ignoring the consequences of the actions proposed. Recessions kill. There is a clear link between falls in GDP and the suicide rate. How severe this recession is going to be is yet to be determined but the longer we wait the more businesses collapse. Its that simple.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 18,829
    edited June 23
    eristdoof said:

    eristdoof said:

    Scott_xP said:

    eristdoof said:

    "How realistic, as well, is it going to be for pub-goers to provide names and addresses to be admitted so that they can be identified in future if a fellow pub-goers at the same time contracts the virus? Popping in for a pint is going to be quite a routine."

    It is a routine, it is a very simple routine. You are given a clipboard with a list. You add your name to the list. Then you get served. I did exactly that on Sunday here in Berlin.

    Good joke, but anyone who does that is an idiot. If there is an outbreak traced to that pub, "Goofy" would want to know about it.
    If I write John Smith will it be accepted? I do think the Japanese app sounds a got idea, in the circs., although I'm very suspicious of anything that lets the 'authorities' know where I am.

    Not because I need to be, of course, but on principle!
    Have you downloaded any free apps on a smartphone? They know shed loads of information about you, and where you are.
    Of course. One of them is the ZOE Covid-19 app. It was somewhat of a rhetorical question!

    I understand what you mean about apps 'knowing' where I am etc. If I ever wanted to disappear the first thing I'd dump is my smartphone.
    Then my credit card.
    A few years ago I read a book about a chap who did exactly that. Dumped his phone, dumped his credit card, lived rough in London and after a while was able to create a completely new identity.
    Can't remember the name of the book, though! Or the author.
    Must have been successful!
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 28,857
    kle4 said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    On topic it seems a bit mental to be relaxing the response when you're still on quite massive numbers of cases - this says the UK has nearly 1000 per day? But I guess most people will still stay away from the pubs and a lot of them will have a hard time taking enough to pay their staff and they'll have to stay closed, so maybe it's a distinction without a difference.

    There's gonna be a hardcore PB posse on 24/7 pubcrawl, let's hope their livers last out.
    I'm only showing up at last knockings for the brawl and/or stabbings.
    It doesnt count if you only show up at the end, it's like jumping out of the crowd at a marathon and sprinting the last 100m.
    the only sensible way to run a marathon
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 28,857
    DavidL said:

    June is going to be another month with a £50bn+ deficit. Anyone who claims that we are coming out of the lockdown too soon is just completely ignoring the economic realities of the situation. The government cannot continue to pay its 5m employees and another 8m furloughed without income coming in.
    It is of course highly regrettable that after 3 months of this we have still not got much of a trace and test system in place. I am not sure that there is anything inevitable about a second wave but such a system would have reduced the risk. In my experience people take social distancing at least as seriously as they should, arguably much more so given the relatively modest number of cases in the community right now but the lockdown has collapsed around the edges with families and friends once again visiting each other relatively freely and kids meeting up with their pals as a matter of routine.
    Scotland is in serious danger of being left behind in all this with an overly cautious and maternalistic government being much more equivocal about normal life starting again. This will cost hundreds of Scottish businesses and thousands of Scottish jobs. Ironically, the additional weakening of the Scottish economy and the inevitably greater reliance upon English subsidy just might save the Union.

    You are dreaming David, the shambles from Tories has already cost many Scottish lives , we should not allow their greed to cause more. The sooner we are free of these criminals and shysters the better. Given the state they have made of Scotland we can do no worse on our own , trying to pretend we are subsidised is pathetic.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 54,584
    edited June 23
    DavidL said:

    kle4 said:

    What gets me is countries and places ending lockdownsvon timetables even though their deaths let alone cases are still very high. Is it about the economy, the politics of changing course, the inevitability of a second wave?

    Of course it is about the economy. It is a balance between competing harms which is a political call and always was. Hiding behind scientists was never a great look and resulted in much too narrow a focus ignoring the consequences of the actions proposed. Recessions kill. There is a clear link between falls in GDP and the suicide rate. How severe this recession is going to be is yet to be determined but the longer we wait the more businesses collapse. Its that simple.
    I get it's a balance, but I'm not talking of here I'm talking about countries where hundreds and hundreds are still dying every day, where initially people would say locking down hard was needed as the lesser economic evil. Did they even need to lockdown at all if they could not economically maintain one for very long? (Frankly I don't think we can either, the impact is just more deferred)
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 7,673
    The numbers for Texas are looking pretty grim. When is Ted Cruz due his next haircut?
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 1,307

    eristdoof said:

    eristdoof said:

    Scott_xP said:

    eristdoof said:

    "How realistic, as well, is it going to be for pub-goers to provide names and addresses to be admitted so that they can be identified in future if a fellow pub-goers at the same time contracts the virus? Popping in for a pint is going to be quite a routine."

    It is a routine, it is a very simple routine. You are given a clipboard with a list. You add your name to the list. Then you get served. I did exactly that on Sunday here in Berlin.

    Good joke, but anyone who does that is an idiot. If there is an outbreak traced to that pub, "Goofy" would want to know about it.
    If I write John Smith will it be accepted? I do think the Japanese app sounds a got idea, in the circs., although I'm very suspicious of anything that lets the 'authorities' know where I am.

    Not because I need to be, of course, but on principle!
    Have you downloaded any free apps on a smartphone? They know shed loads of information about you, and where you are.
    Of course. One of them is the ZOE Covid-19 app. It was somewhat of a rhetorical question!

    I understand what you mean about apps 'knowing' where I am etc. If I ever wanted to disappear the first thing I'd dump is my smartphone.
    Then my credit card.
    A few years ago I read a book about a chap who did exactly that. Dumped his phone, dumped his credit card, lived rough in London and after a while was able to create a completely new identity.
    Can't remember the name of the book, though! Or the author.
    Must have been successful!
    Fiction or non fiction? There was a William Boyd book which had this as a plot feature.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 22,336
    Foxy said:

    Nigelb said:

    felix said:

    Nigelb said:

    ClippP said:

    First. Johnson is a chancer and a gambler, and in this case he is gambling with all of our lives - all for the sake of a quick headline, and an opportunity to boost his drooping poll ratings.

    He is no more to be trusted than Trump is.

    It's primarily because of the economy and, yes, pressure from the Red Tops.

    When the second wave hits, which it will, he's going to take a hammering.

    Out in the High Streets there is already no social distancing, no hand sanitisers, no temperature checkers, no contact tracing and very few face masks.

    A second wave is coming, probably around mid-July.
    It’s not quite like that - I’d guess that a large majority of the population is taking precautions of varying degrees (nowhere near that wearing masks), but the rest have, or are about to, give up bothering.
    But yes, a second wave looks probable; perhaps not quite as soon as that.
    Where I am in Spain lockdown is over but the majority of people I see are being very careful and responsible. Masks are obligatory in all shops and other public spaces - you don't get into a supermarket wothout masks/gloves and sanitisers are everywhere. The level of compliance is very high. Maybe a relic of the more authoritarian past of the country but it is very re-assuring. TBF I live in a relatively quiet area near the coast yes but with only modest numbers of tourists - our beaches are failry quiet other than in August and then nothing like the more famous costas.
    Yes, masks are essential in crowded indoor spaces, and most of us aren’t wearing them.
    Compliance by patients and staff at the hospital is close to 100% in corridors, lifts, and waiting areas.

    British people are fine with masks, provided others are wearing them too. Ours is a embarrassed nation, and it is embarrassing to be inappropriately dressed. Britons will wear them if others do, and not if others do not. Peer pressure is needed.
    Agreed, and I’ve been doing my best... :smile:
    But when most people don’t wear masks - definitely the case when I shopped last - peer pressure works in the other direction.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 26,675

    People complaining it's too early haven't got a clue about the realities of businesses. For summer reliant hospitality they've already lost some of the busiest months of the year. To lose Mother's Day, May and June is not made up by having a furlough scheme.

    Things won't get back to normal now but with the ability to maybe trade in July and August they've got at least a chance. If those months were written off too you could increase the number of businesses never to reopen by an order of magnitude.

    Certainly the case down here - businesses are praying for a bumper summer (good weather and lots of visitors) to stay afloat.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 29,154

    IshmaelZ said:

    IanB2 said:

    Question: is easing of lockdown regulations going to be uniform across the UK, or will there be different levels of easing based on regional/local conditions?

    Welcome back to the site. There are four parts of the UK - England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. As I understand it the changes here will apply to just England
    I love it when Englishmen refer to their own country as a “part”. Athelstan, Drake, Churchill et al will be spinning in their graves.
    “your boys took a hell of a beating....” ?
    That night exposed the deep, underlying sentiments of Norwegians to the English, which I find surprising. Although not as pro-English as the Swedes, the Norwegians must still be in the top ten of England-loving nations. And yet, and yet, that football commentary. There are some deep waters there. Are the effects of the notorious Norway Debate, and the disastrous Norwegian campaign still present in modern Norwegian society?
    I regard that as funny and affectionate. It also reveals a deeper knowledge of the uk than probably most EDL members enjoy; the impromptu namecheck is pretty impressive:

    "Lord Nelson, Lord Beaverbrook, Sir Winston Churchill, Sir Anthony Eden, Clement Attlee, Henry Cooper, Lady Diana, vi har slått dem alle sammen, vi har slått dem alle sammen! (we have beaten them all, we have beaten them all!). Maggie Thatcher, can you hear me? Maggie Thatcher ... your boys took a hell of a beating! Your boys took a hell of a beating!"
    Beaverbrook is an interesting one. Long a friend of the Nazis, as late as 1940 he was trying to get a peace deal with Hitler, just as his pal was invading Norway.

    The list is odd. And perhaps more revealing of Norwegians’ understanding than you might initially see.
    That comment is a puzzling one. Beaverbrook was a supporter of appeasement (ironically, for the publisher of Guilty Men) and a supporter of a negotiated peace until the fall of Norway but that's far from being a friend of the Nazis. Unless you're saying that Halifax was a friend of the Nazis as well?

    I think you might be confusing him with Lord Rothermere, who as a very strongly anti-Communist figure was associated with several Fascist movements, including Mosley of course, but also Mussolini and Horthy.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 14,083
    Nigelb said:


    Agreed, and I’ve been doing my best... :smile:
    But when most people don’t wear masks - definitely the case when I shopped last - peer pressure works in the other direction.

    This is the kind of case where the government just needs to stamp its feet a bit, and it should gradually be shifting from regulating individuals to regulating businesses. If supermarkets aren't enforcing wearing masks, just make it the law that they have to. Once (nearly) everyone is wearing them that should become the new social norm, and you should no longer need much enforcement.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 3,460
    eristdoof said:

    eristdoof said:

    Scott_xP said:

    eristdoof said:

    "How realistic, as well, is it going to be for pub-goers to provide names and addresses to be admitted so that they can be identified in future if a fellow pub-goers at the same time contracts the virus? Popping in for a pint is going to be quite a routine."

    It is a routine, it is a very simple routine. You are given a clipboard with a list. You add your name to the list. Then you get served. I did exactly that on Sunday here in Berlin.

    Good joke, but anyone who does that is an idiot. If there is an outbreak traced to that pub, "Goofy" would want to know about it.
    If I write John Smith will it be accepted? I do think the Japanese app sounds a got idea, in the circs., although I'm very suspicious of anything that lets the 'authorities' know where I am.

    Not because I need to be, of course, but on principle!
    Have you downloaded any free apps on a smartphone? They know shed loads of information about you, and where you are.
    That's true. But in the case of the pub, it is not the authorities you want to worry about.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 35,177
    DavidL said:

    malcolmg said:

    DavidL said:

    June is going to be another month with a £50bn+ deficit. Anyone who claims that we are coming out of the lockdown too soon is just completely ignoring the economic realities of the situation. The government cannot continue to pay its 5m employees and another 8m furloughed without income coming in.
    It is of course highly regrettable that after 3 months of this we have still not got much of a trace and test system in place. I am not sure that there is anything inevitable about a second wave but such a system would have reduced the risk. In my experience people take social distancing at least as seriously as they should, arguably much more so given the relatively modest number of cases in the community right now but the lockdown has collapsed around the edges with families and friends once again visiting each other relatively freely and kids meeting up with their pals as a matter of routine.
    Scotland is in serious danger of being left behind in all this with an overly cautious and maternalistic government being much more equivocal about normal life starting again. This will cost hundreds of Scottish businesses and thousands of Scottish jobs. Ironically, the additional weakening of the Scottish economy and the inevitably greater reliance upon English subsidy just might save the Union.

    You are dreaming David, the shambles from Tories has already cost many Scottish lives , we should not allow their greed to cause more. The sooner we are free of these criminals and shysters the better. Given the state they have made of Scotland we can do no worse on our own , trying to pretend we are subsidised is pathetic.
    The key to independence is a viable economy but a bureaucratic, public service dominated Scottish government has never seen that, being much more focused on "freebies" than the economic results. Our University sector is facing devastation as a result of such policies but it is not alone. The Highlands will be economically destroyed by Nicola's reluctance to follow suite and we will sadly have a legacy of semi-derelict hotels, cafes and shops for a long time to come.
    In my own line of work the Scottish Courts system is already at least 8 weeks behind England in terms of opening up again and announcement after announcement by Scottish Courts is followed by really pitiful amounts of action on the ground and the odd token hearing with no jury trials until next month at the earliest and then only 2 set down.
    I'm afraid that you are the one that is dreaming Malcolm if you think such caution and hesitancy comes without a price.
    The irony is that to be a viable independent nation Scotland really needs to be led by a party like the Tories with a focus on the economy.

    But unless Scotland goes independent they're never going to get that.

    It's a Catch 22 dilemma.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 6,123
    US looks to be starting off on second wave. UK cases look to be flatlining rather than falling all that much, but maybe it's just that we are testing more. Second wave definitely looks to be a major risk, and our contact tracing system is still nascent.
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