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  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,758

    DavidL said:

    malcolmg said:

    DavidL said:

    June is going to be another month with a £50bn+ deficit. Anyone who claims that we are coming out of the lockdown too soon is just completely ignoring the economic realities of the situation. The government cannot continue to pay its 5m employees and another 8m furloughed without income coming in.
    It is of course highly regrettable that after 3 months of this we have still not got much of a trace and test system in place. I am not sure that there is anything inevitable about a second wave but such a system would have reduced the risk. In my experience people take social distancing at least as seriously as they should, arguably much more so given the relatively modest number of cases in the community right now but the lockdown has collapsed around the edges with families and friends once again visiting each other relatively freely and kids meeting up with their pals as a matter of routine.
    Scotland is in serious danger of being left behind in all this with an overly cautious and maternalistic government being much more equivocal about normal life starting again. This will cost hundreds of Scottish businesses and thousands of Scottish jobs. Ironically, the additional weakening of the Scottish economy and the inevitably greater reliance upon English subsidy just might save the Union.

    You are dreaming David, the shambles from Tories has already cost many Scottish lives , we should not allow their greed to cause more. The sooner we are free of these criminals and shysters the better. Given the state they have made of Scotland we can do no worse on our own , trying to pretend we are subsidised is pathetic.
    The key to independence is a viable economy but a bureaucratic, public service dominated Scottish government has never seen that, being much more focused on "freebies" than the economic results. Our University sector is facing devastation as a result of such policies but it is not alone. The Highlands will be economically destroyed by Nicola's reluctance to follow suite and we will sadly have a legacy of semi-derelict hotels, cafes and shops for a long time to come.
    In my own line of work the Scottish Courts system is already at least 8 weeks behind England in terms of opening up again and announcement after announcement by Scottish Courts is followed by really pitiful amounts of action on the ground and the odd token hearing with no jury trials until next month at the earliest and then only 2 set down.
    I'm afraid that you are the one that is dreaming Malcolm if you think such caution and hesitancy comes without a price.
    The irony is that to be a viable independent nation Scotland really needs to be led by a party like the Tories with a focus on the economy.

    But unless Scotland goes independent they're never going to get that.

    It's a Catch 22 dilemma.
    I once knew a Welsh nationalist who desperately wanted independence because he thought the only way to remove the sclerotic and desperately corrupt Welsh public sector was an economic collapse followed by a total rebuild from first principles.

    He thought independence was the best and possibly only way to achieve that.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    IanB2 said:

    People complaining it's too early haven't got a clue about the realities of businesses. For summer reliant hospitality they've already lost some of the busiest months of the year. To lose Mother's Day, May and June is not made up by having a furlough scheme.

    Things won't get back to normal now but with the ability to maybe trade in July and August they've got at least a chance. If those months were written off too you could increase the number of businesses never to reopen by an order of magnitude.

    Certainly the case down here - businesses are praying for a bumper summer (good weather and lots of visitors) to stay afloat.
    Interesting dynamic in, for example, Cornwall, in the shift from "F**K OFF VISITORS" to "WELCOME ONE AND ALL".
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,758
    TOPPING said:

    IanB2 said:

    People complaining it's too early haven't got a clue about the realities of businesses. For summer reliant hospitality they've already lost some of the busiest months of the year. To lose Mother's Day, May and June is not made up by having a furlough scheme.

    Things won't get back to normal now but with the ability to maybe trade in July and August they've got at least a chance. If those months were written off too you could increase the number of businesses never to reopen by an order of magnitude.

    Certainly the case down here - businesses are praying for a bumper summer (good weather and lots of visitors) to stay afloat.
    Interesting dynamic in, for example, Cornwall, in the shift from "F**K OFF VISITORS" to "WELCOME ONE AND ALL".
    The brothels of course can keep both signs...
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518

    eristdoof said:

    eristdoof said:

    Scott_xP said:

    eristdoof said:

    "How realistic, as well, is it going to be for pub-goers to provide names and addresses to be admitted so that they can be identified in future if a fellow pub-goers at the same time contracts the virus? Popping in for a pint is going to be quite a routine."

    It is a routine, it is a very simple routine. You are given a clipboard with a list. You add your name to the list. Then you get served. I did exactly that on Sunday here in Berlin.

    https://twitter.com/MattCartoonist/status/1275104633908846593
    Good joke, but anyone who does that is an idiot. If there is an outbreak traced to that pub, "Goofy" would want to know about it.
    If I write John Smith will it be accepted? I do think the Japanese app sounds a got idea, in the circs., although I'm very suspicious of anything that lets the 'authorities' know where I am.

    Not because I need to be, of course, but on principle!
    Have you downloaded any free apps on a smartphone? They know shed loads of information about you, and where you are.
    That's true. But in the case of the pub, it is not the authorities you want to worry about.
    You mean that not being anonymous when drinking too much is a bit risky...?
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 23,930

    DavidL said:

    malcolmg said:

    DavidL said:

    June is going to be another month with a £50bn+ deficit. Anyone who claims that we are coming out of the lockdown too soon is just completely ignoring the economic realities of the situation. The government cannot continue to pay its 5m employees and another 8m furloughed without income coming in.
    It is of course highly regrettable that after 3 months of this we have still not got much of a trace and test system in place. I am not sure that there is anything inevitable about a second wave but such a system would have reduced the risk. In my experience people take social distancing at least as seriously as they should, arguably much more so given the relatively modest number of cases in the community right now but the lockdown has collapsed around the edges with families and friends once again visiting each other relatively freely and kids meeting up with their pals as a matter of routine.
    Scotland is in serious danger of being left behind in all this with an overly cautious and maternalistic government being much more equivocal about normal life starting again. This will cost hundreds of Scottish businesses and thousands of Scottish jobs. Ironically, the additional weakening of the Scottish economy and the inevitably greater reliance upon English subsidy just might save the Union.

    You are dreaming David, the shambles from Tories has already cost many Scottish lives , we should not allow their greed to cause more. The sooner we are free of these criminals and shysters the better. Given the state they have made of Scotland we can do no worse on our own , trying to pretend we are subsidised is pathetic.
    The key to independence is a viable economy but a bureaucratic, public service dominated Scottish government has never seen that, being much more focused on "freebies" than the economic results. Our University sector is facing devastation as a result of such policies but it is not alone. The Highlands will be economically destroyed by Nicola's reluctance to follow suite and we will sadly have a legacy of semi-derelict hotels, cafes and shops for a long time to come.
    In my own line of work the Scottish Courts system is already at least 8 weeks behind England in terms of opening up again and announcement after announcement by Scottish Courts is followed by really pitiful amounts of action on the ground and the odd token hearing with no jury trials until next month at the earliest and then only 2 set down.
    I'm afraid that you are the one that is dreaming Malcolm if you think such caution and hesitancy comes without a price.
    The irony is that to be a viable independent nation Scotland really needs to be led by a party like the Tories with a focus on the economy.

    But unless Scotland goes independent they're never going to get that.

    It's a Catch 22 dilemma.
    Scotland needs a party like the Tories with a focus on the economy. On the other hand, what Scotland does not need is a party like the Tories which spaffed North Sea Oil revenues up the wall to prop up its failed economic dogma.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,072
    I finally have a date for my rescheduled surgery - some of you might remember it was supposed to happen on New Years Eve.

    14th August. Have to stay at home as much as possible 3 weeks before hand apparently. I better invest in some good garden furniture and plenty of beer.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,043
    Morning all,

    "pub-goers to provide names and addresses"

    Of course wouldn't be needed if the Government had gone with the Apple/Google OS kludge and built a working app by now.

    Like Germany.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    The numbers for Texas are looking pretty grim. When is Ted Cruz due his next haircut?

    https://twitter.com/KHOU/status/1275264555321524226?s=19
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,043
    rkrkrk said:

    US looks to be starting off on second wave. UK cases look to be flatlining rather than falling all that much, but maybe it's just that we are testing more. Second wave definitely looks to be a major risk, and our contact tracing system is still nascent.

    US never came out of first wave except in NY and one or two other places.

  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Nigelb said:


    Agreed, and I’ve been doing my best... :smile:
    But when most people don’t wear masks - definitely the case when I shopped last - peer pressure works in the other direction.

    This is the kind of case where the government just needs to stamp its feet a bit, and it should gradually be shifting from regulating individuals to regulating businesses. If supermarkets aren't enforcing wearing masks, just make it the law that they have to. Once (nearly) everyone is wearing them that should become the new social norm, and you should no longer need much enforcement.
    The problem is how that then gets interpreted and enforced. Eg the government have required masks on public transport, with exceptions for the very young and those with breathing difficulty (which seems counterintuitive). My wife takes the bus to work and she said that a lady boarded the bus and apologised to the driver saying she hasn't got a mask and the driver said not to worry - he'd been given a warning by his employer following a complaint after he'd asked a passenger to put on a mask so now he wasn't going to anymore. 🤦‍♂️ If you give in to every squeaky wheel then nothing gets done.

    Major cultural changes are possible, take smoking indoors for example. That is now totally taboo. But it requires consistency and public buy in into it.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 24,967
    DavidL said:

    June is going to be another month with a £50bn+ deficit. Anyone who claims that we are coming out of the lockdown too soon is just completely ignoring the economic realities of the situation. The government cannot continue to pay its 5m employees and another 8m furloughed without income coming in.
    It is of course highly regrettable that after 3 months of this we have still not got much of a trace and test system in place. I am not sure that there is anything inevitable about a second wave but such a system would have reduced the risk. In my experience people take social distancing at least as seriously as they should, arguably much more so given the relatively modest number of cases in the community right now but the lockdown has collapsed around the edges with families and friends once again visiting each other relatively freely and kids meeting up with their pals as a matter of routine.
    Scotland is in serious danger of being left behind in all this with an overly cautious and maternalistic government being much more equivocal about normal life starting again. This will cost hundreds of Scottish businesses and thousands of Scottish jobs. Ironically, the additional weakening of the Scottish economy and the inevitably greater reliance upon English subsidy just might save the Union.

    Is the 8m the number of people who are now furloughed or those who have been furloughed at some point ?
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,072

    Nigelb said:


    Agreed, and I’ve been doing my best... :smile:
    But when most people don’t wear masks - definitely the case when I shopped last - peer pressure works in the other direction.

    This is the kind of case where the government just needs to stamp its feet a bit, and it should gradually be shifting from regulating individuals to regulating businesses. If supermarkets aren't enforcing wearing masks, just make it the law that they have to. Once (nearly) everyone is wearing them that should become the new social norm, and you should no longer need much enforcement.
    The problem is how that then gets interpreted and enforced. Eg the government have required masks on public transport, with exceptions for the very young and those with breathing difficulty (which seems counterintuitive). My wife takes the bus to work and she said that a lady boarded the bus and apologised to the driver saying she hasn't got a mask and the driver said not to worry - he'd been given a warning by his employer following a complaint after he'd asked a passenger to put on a mask so now he wasn't going to anymore. 🤦‍♂️ If you give in to every squeaky wheel then nothing gets done.

    Major cultural changes are possible, take smoking indoors for example. That is now totally taboo. But it requires consistency and public buy in into it.
    Mask wearing is temporary though so it cannot be compared to smoking indoors.

    I know there’s some who are obsessed with the idea that we in the West should follow the East in wearing them more regularly but realistically that isn’t going to happen, and neither in my opinion should it.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,136

    Nigelb said:


    Agreed, and I’ve been doing my best... :smile:
    But when most people don’t wear masks - definitely the case when I shopped last - peer pressure works in the other direction.

    This is the kind of case where the government just needs to stamp its feet a bit, and it should gradually be shifting from regulating individuals to regulating businesses. If supermarkets aren't enforcing wearing masks, just make it the law that they have to. Once (nearly) everyone is wearing them that should become the new social norm, and you should no longer need much enforcement.
    The problem is how that then gets interpreted and enforced. Eg the government have required masks on public transport, with exceptions for the very young and those with breathing difficulty (which seems counterintuitive). My wife takes the bus to work and she said that a lady boarded the bus and apologised to the driver saying she hasn't got a mask and the driver said not to worry - he'd been given a warning by his employer following a complaint after he'd asked a passenger to put on a mask so now he wasn't going to anymore. 🤦‍♂️ If you give in to every squeaky wheel then nothing gets done.

    Major cultural changes are possible, take smoking indoors for example. That is now totally taboo. But it requires consistency and public buy in into it.
    What were the rest of the passengers doing though? The way you describe it it sounds like the women without the mask was the exception, and everyone else way wearing one?

    Also this is a case where wearing the mask is cheap and simple (assuming they're back in the shops) while not being allowed on the bus is a big old PITA, so you should only need the occasional driver (or policeman government mask-compliance busybody or whatever) to start enforcing the policy if compliance drops and it turns out to need a reboot.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    Wait a minute. On the app didn't Hancock say we were pursuing a plan B as well ?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,718
    edited June 2020
    alex_ said:

    eristdoof said:

    eristdoof said:

    Scott_xP said:

    eristdoof said:

    "How realistic, as well, is it going to be for pub-goers to provide names and addresses to be admitted so that they can be identified in future if a fellow pub-goers at the same time contracts the virus? Popping in for a pint is going to be quite a routine."

    It is a routine, it is a very simple routine. You are given a clipboard with a list. You add your name to the list. Then you get served. I did exactly that on Sunday here in Berlin.

    https://twitter.com/MattCartoonist/status/1275104633908846593
    Good joke, but anyone who does that is an idiot. If there is an outbreak traced to that pub, "Goofy" would want to know about it.
    If I write John Smith will it be accepted? I do think the Japanese app sounds a got idea, in the circs., although I'm very suspicious of anything that lets the 'authorities' know where I am.

    Not because I need to be, of course, but on principle!
    Have you downloaded any free apps on a smartphone? They know shed loads of information about you, and where you are.
    Of course. One of them is the ZOE Covid-19 app. It was somewhat of a rhetorical question!

    I understand what you mean about apps 'knowing' where I am etc. If I ever wanted to disappear the first thing I'd dump is my smartphone.
    Then my credit card.
    A few years ago I read a book about a chap who did exactly that. Dumped his phone, dumped his credit card, lived rough in London and after a while was able to create a completely new identity.
    Can't remember the name of the book, though! Or the author.
    Must have been successful!
    Fiction or non fiction? There was a William Boyd book which had this as a plot feature.
    Thanks. Fiction. Chap ended up working in a hospital. There was a sub-plot around help from a church. Had a skim through William Boyd's books but don't recognise any.

    Edit; have now.... Ordinary Thunderstorms.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Ftpt
    MrEd said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Trump to win Michigan at 3.1 on betfair worth a punt I reckon. Latest polls had him down only by 1 or 2, and Michigan is exactly the kind of place where undercounted white working class might make him overperform his polling.

    Agreed. It's quite possible that Trump wins Michigan, but not the Presidency (see Florida).

    But if he loses Michigan, then I think he really struggles to win the Presidency, because that means the Midwest is lost.

    3-1 is great odds. Take it.
    Agreed re Michigan. I think if that is the case though, PA is also worth a bet, especially if Trump is making small but crucial progress in the Black vote.
    Could you please post some polling backup for this claim
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 24,967
    As yet, of course, there is no vaccine or treatment and the possibility of an early upturn is very real. Just look at what is happening in Portugal at the moment which until now had seen relatively few infections and deaths.

    Perhaps Portugal is getting more now because it hasn't had many before.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,772

    DavidL said:

    June is going to be another month with a £50bn+ deficit. Anyone who claims that we are coming out of the lockdown too soon is just completely ignoring the economic realities of the situation. The government cannot continue to pay its 5m employees and another 8m furloughed without income coming in.
    It is of course highly regrettable that after 3 months of this we have still not got much of a trace and test system in place. I am not sure that there is anything inevitable about a second wave but such a system would have reduced the risk. In my experience people take social distancing at least as seriously as they should, arguably much more so given the relatively modest number of cases in the community right now but the lockdown has collapsed around the edges with families and friends once again visiting each other relatively freely and kids meeting up with their pals as a matter of routine.
    Scotland is in serious danger of being left behind in all this with an overly cautious and maternalistic government being much more equivocal about normal life starting again. This will cost hundreds of Scottish businesses and thousands of Scottish jobs. Ironically, the additional weakening of the Scottish economy and the inevitably greater reliance upon English subsidy just might save the Union.

    Is the 8m the number of people who are now furloughed or those who have been furloughed at some point ?
    My understanding is that there is in excess of 11m people who have been furloughed at some point but that it is still 8m currently furloughed. In my work we have had people on 3 week rotations for public facing staff but pretty much all the facilities staff have been furloughed continuously. I suspect that is pretty typical.

    The question is how many of these are simply deferred redundancies. The answer will depend upon the speed with which companies can get back to business.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,043
    Pulpstar said:

    Wait a minute. On the app didn't Hancock say we were pursuing a plan B as well ?

    No sign of plan B.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 24,967
    rkrkrk said:

    US looks to be starting off on second wave. UK cases look to be flatlining rather than falling all that much, but maybe it's just that we are testing more. Second wave definitely looks to be a major risk, and our contact tracing system is still nascent.

    The USA is still on its first wave.

    The UK is 99% down on its peak.
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797
    TOPPING said:

    IanB2 said:

    People complaining it's too early haven't got a clue about the realities of businesses. For summer reliant hospitality they've already lost some of the busiest months of the year. To lose Mother's Day, May and June is not made up by having a furlough scheme.

    Things won't get back to normal now but with the ability to maybe trade in July and August they've got at least a chance. If those months were written off too you could increase the number of businesses never to reopen by an order of magnitude.

    Certainly the case down here - businesses are praying for a bumper summer (good weather and lots of visitors) to stay afloat.
    Interesting dynamic in, for example, Cornwall, in the shift from "F**K OFF VISITORS" to "WELCOME ONE AND ALL".
    Yep I'm trying to work out what to do for our holiday in Cornwall in July as last week the request from the Council was stay at home we don't want you.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 4,199

    Morning all,

    "pub-goers to provide names and addresses"

    Of course wouldn't be needed if the Government had gone with the Apple/Google OS kludge and built a working app by now.

    Like Germany.

    you do have to fill in a form with contact details if you go to a cafe or bar or restaurant, or even library here in Germany (NRW).

    obviously, way less than 100% of people have a phone with the app on it on them.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 24,967

    Morning all,

    "pub-goers to provide names and addresses"

    Of course wouldn't be needed if the Government had gone with the Apple/Google OS kludge and built a working app by now.

    Like Germany.

    What about people who don't have a smart phone or those who do and don't download the app ?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,718

    As yet, of course, there is no vaccine or treatment and the possibility of an early upturn is very real. Just look at what is happening in Portugal at the moment which until now had seen relatively few infections and deaths.

    Perhaps Portugal is getting more now because it hasn't had many before.

    Result of allowing tourists in?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,772

    Nigelb said:


    Agreed, and I’ve been doing my best... :smile:
    But when most people don’t wear masks - definitely the case when I shopped last - peer pressure works in the other direction.

    This is the kind of case where the government just needs to stamp its feet a bit, and it should gradually be shifting from regulating individuals to regulating businesses. If supermarkets aren't enforcing wearing masks, just make it the law that they have to. Once (nearly) everyone is wearing them that should become the new social norm, and you should no longer need much enforcement.
    The problem is how that then gets interpreted and enforced. Eg the government have required masks on public transport, with exceptions for the very young and those with breathing difficulty (which seems counterintuitive). My wife takes the bus to work and she said that a lady boarded the bus and apologised to the driver saying she hasn't got a mask and the driver said not to worry - he'd been given a warning by his employer following a complaint after he'd asked a passenger to put on a mask so now he wasn't going to anymore. 🤦‍♂️ If you give in to every squeaky wheel then nothing gets done.

    Major cultural changes are possible, take smoking indoors for example. That is now totally taboo. But it requires consistency and public buy in into it.
    Mask wearing is temporary though so it cannot be compared to smoking indoors.

    I know there’s some who are obsessed with the idea that we in the West should follow the East in wearing them more regularly but realistically that isn’t going to happen, and neither in my opinion should it.
    I wore a mask for the first time in Tesco's on Sunday. I was in a minority although not alone. I felt fairly ridiculous to be honest, especially as the mask meant my glasses frequently fogged up. I am not sure I am going to repeat the experiment but I would feel differently on public transport such as a train.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,043

    Morning all,

    "pub-goers to provide names and addresses"

    Of course wouldn't be needed if the Government had gone with the Apple/Google OS kludge and built a working app by now.

    Like Germany.

    What about people who don't have a smart phone or those who do and don't download the app ?
    I believe to have a system that copes with the virus threat to a reasonable degree not everyone has to use it, just a sufficient number.

    imho more people will use it if there fewer privacy concerns i.e. not the NHSX centralised, all-sing-no-dancing mythical app.

    It seems not everyone is 'playing the game' with the manual, telephone track and trace as it is.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 24,967

    As yet, of course, there is no vaccine or treatment and the possibility of an early upturn is very real. Just look at what is happening in Portugal at the moment which until now had seen relatively few infections and deaths.

    Perhaps Portugal is getting more now because it hasn't had many before.

    Result of allowing tourists in?
    Possibly but a country which has had few infections will become complacent and with no herd immunity built very vulnerable.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,625

    On topic it seems a bit mental to be relaxing the response when you're still on quite massive numbers of cases - this says the UK has nearly 1000 per day? But I guess most people will still stay away from the pubs and a lot of them will have a hard time taking enough to pay their staff and they'll have to stay closed, so maybe it's a distinction without a difference.

    The usual issue applies - day of reporting vs day of specimen.

    The English cases numbers, by specimen date

    image
    image
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,851
    Touch of corona complacency afoot now?
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,136
    edited June 2020
    DavidL said:

    especially as the mask meant my glasses frequently fogged up

    Moon Sister will solve small problems and make your life simple:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LHpPwR8DZ64
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    I've been wearing an N95 respirator every trip to the shops. Gives an amazing feeling of superiority knowing your mask is one of those 'unless it's medical grade' exceptions which gives you a bit more protection than the average mask.

    Also looks a bit easier to breathe in compared to the standard surgical or cloth masks.
    20% feeling smug, 80% safety for me.
    My other half can't abide them - she's off to the shops just this moment ! The one way system in the shops sends her loopy. So if I get it it'll probably be from her :D
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 24,967
    kinabalu said:

    Touch of corona complacency afoot now?

    Its corona realism - the risks of being infected are much lower now.

    People are still socially distancing and hand washing where appropriate.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    malcolmg said:

    Interesting breakdown of recent poll and shows it is only when and not if on independence.
    The survey of 1,070 Scottish residents over the age of 16 found support for independence was 54% to 46%, once Don’t Knows were removed.

    When you include undecided voters, support for independence is leading by 50% to 43%, with 7% of Don’t Knows. This relates to a stunning 338,000 additional Yes voters compared to 2014, assuming similar turnout levels.
    Breakdown

    The poll found that male respondents would support independence by 58% to 42% and females were still marginally in favour of the union by 51% to 49%.

    The unionist lead in female voters is dependent on age, with females aged between 15 and 34 supporting independence by a massive 73% to 27%. That was higher than the equivalent age group for men, where independence led by 68% to 32%.

    Indeed the unionist vote relies on three key groups; firstly males and females over the age of 55 where the union still leads 57% to 43%, females over the age of 55 where the union leads 61% to 39% and Conservative voters.

    Only 50% Yes including Don't Knows and in any case there will be no indyref2 granted by Westminster unless and until we get a Labour led government
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842

    kinabalu said:

    Touch of corona complacency afoot now?

    Its corona realism - the risks of being infected are much lower now.

    People are still socially distancing and hand washing where appropriate.
    Well no matter what side of the lockdown argument you're on, cases & deaths heading south can only be a good thing.
  • novanova Posts: 525
    Given the awful year we've had, Sunak has had a relatively easy ride, as his main job has been to give money away. There's plenty of economic pain to come and I'm sure Boris will let his chancellor take the "credit" for that too.
  • Sunak's numbers will fall through the floor when he's pursuing austerity. His numbers are stratospheric because he's given money away.

    I remember when Johnson's numbers were sky high too.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,136
    Paper on the BLM protests, they looked at mobile phone data and concluded that although participating in the protests probably increases risk to participants, the net effect is to increase social distancing behaviour overall, because everybody else is worried about transport disruption, unable to go to a business that has been shut or just generally too terrified to leave their house.

    https://www.nber.org/papers/w27408.pdf
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 24,967
    Pulpstar said:

    kinabalu said:

    Touch of corona complacency afoot now?

    Its corona realism - the risks of being infected are much lower now.

    People are still socially distancing and hand washing where appropriate.
    Well no matter what side of the lockdown argument you're on, cases & deaths heading south can only be a good thing.
    I have doubts as to how low we should want infections to go.

    If a second wave this winter is a real possibility then building herd immunity through the young and healthy being infected is no bad thing.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,949
    Alistair said:

    Ftpt

    MrEd said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Trump to win Michigan at 3.1 on betfair worth a punt I reckon. Latest polls had him down only by 1 or 2, and Michigan is exactly the kind of place where undercounted white working class might make him overperform his polling.

    Agreed. It's quite possible that Trump wins Michigan, but not the Presidency (see Florida).

    But if he loses Michigan, then I think he really struggles to win the Presidency, because that means the Midwest is lost.

    3-1 is great odds. Take it.
    Agreed re Michigan. I think if that is the case though, PA is also worth a bet, especially if Trump is making small but crucial progress in the Black vote.
    Could you please post some polling backup for this claim
    I was also skeptical when I first saw this go around, but there is ample evidence. For example, I've looked at the last 5 national polls on RCP, 4 of which have a racial breakdown, and compared them to the 2016 CNN Exit Poll (which isn't gospel, but is a decent guesstimate for the 2016 results). As you'll see, Biden's lead in black and hispanic voters is slightly down on Clinton's in 2016 even in these polls where he averages 10% leads. But he more than makes up for it with a big improvement in the white vote where he's barely behind at all.


  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,004
    It is clear Boris has to act to open the economy and it is a big call

    I hope it succeeds and I would not want the responsibility

    One thing is absolutely certain, a whole phalanx of individuals and organisation will actively attack the decisions for political reasons, with no care for the outcomes as they have a perverse attitude that the worse everything gets the better, in a vain hope they will achieve their own agendas
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603
    edited June 2020
    Economy bouncing back in June. It really did feel like it.

    Composite PMI of 47.6 on the preliminary measure. With the shackles coming off completely we should see that go into massively positive territory soon.

    I think we may yet we the fabled V shape recovery, especially if there is a vaccine based boost in October.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950

    It is clear Boris has to act to open the economy and it is a big call

    I hope it succeeds and I would not want the responsibility

    One thing is absolutely certain, a whole phalanx of individuals and organisation will actively attack the decisions for political reasons, with no care for the outcomes as they have a perverse attitude that the worse everything gets the better, in a vain hope they will achieve their own agendas

    Do you think in general Big G that, say, the opposition should just shut up and let the government get on with it as it is transparently obvious that the Labour Party are only pursuing their own political agenda.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    malcolmg said:

    DavidL said:

    June is going to be another month with a £50bn+ deficit. Anyone who claims that we are coming out of the lockdown too soon is just completely ignoring the economic realities of the situation. The government cannot continue to pay its 5m employees and another 8m furloughed without income coming in.
    It is of course highly regrettable that after 3 months of this we have still not got much of a trace and test system in place. I am not sure that there is anything inevitable about a second wave but such a system would have reduced the risk. In my experience people take social distancing at least as seriously as they should, arguably much more so given the relatively modest number of cases in the community right now but the lockdown has collapsed around the edges with families and friends once again visiting each other relatively freely and kids meeting up with their pals as a matter of routine.
    Scotland is in serious danger of being left behind in all this with an overly cautious and maternalistic government being much more equivocal about normal life starting again. This will cost hundreds of Scottish businesses and thousands of Scottish jobs. Ironically, the additional weakening of the Scottish economy and the inevitably greater reliance upon English subsidy just might save the Union.

    You are dreaming David, the shambles from Tories has already cost many Scottish lives , we should not allow their greed to cause more. The sooner we are free of these criminals and shysters the better. Given the state they have made of Scotland we can do no worse on our own , trying to pretend we are subsidised is pathetic.
    The key to independence is a viable economy but a bureaucratic, public service dominated Scottish government has never seen that, being much more focused on "freebies" than the economic results. Our University sector is facing devastation as a result of such policies but it is not alone. The Highlands will be economically destroyed by Nicola's reluctance to follow suite and we will sadly have a legacy of semi-derelict hotels, cafes and shops for a long time to come.
    In my own line of work the Scottish Courts system is already at least 8 weeks behind England in terms of opening up again and announcement after announcement by Scottish Courts is followed by really pitiful amounts of action on the ground and the odd token hearing with no jury trials until next month at the earliest and then only 2 set down.
    I'm afraid that you are the one that is dreaming Malcolm if you think such caution and hesitancy comes without a price.
    The irony is that to be a viable independent nation Scotland really needs to be led by a party like the Tories with a focus on the economy.

    But unless Scotland goes independent they're never going to get that.

    It's a Catch 22 dilemma.
    I once knew a Welsh nationalist who desperately wanted independence because he thought the only way to remove the sclerotic and desperately corrupt Welsh public sector was an economic collapse followed by a total rebuild from first principles.

    He thought independence was the best and possibly only way to achieve that.
    It's why I support Scottish independence. Id support Welsh independence for that reason too but I don't think there's a chance the Welsh will go for it.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Quincel said:

    Alistair said:

    Ftpt

    MrEd said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Trump to win Michigan at 3.1 on betfair worth a punt I reckon. Latest polls had him down only by 1 or 2, and Michigan is exactly the kind of place where undercounted white working class might make him overperform his polling.

    Agreed. It's quite possible that Trump wins Michigan, but not the Presidency (see Florida).

    But if he loses Michigan, then I think he really struggles to win the Presidency, because that means the Midwest is lost.

    3-1 is great odds. Take it.
    Agreed re Michigan. I think if that is the case though, PA is also worth a bet, especially if Trump is making small but crucial progress in the Black vote.
    Could you please post some polling backup for this claim
    I was also skeptical when I first saw this go around, but there is ample evidence. For example, I've looked at the last 5 national polls on RCP, 4 of which have a racial breakdown, and compared them to the 2016 CNN Exit Poll (which isn't gospel, but is a decent guesstimate for the 2016 results). As you'll see, Biden's lead in black and hispanic voters is slightly down on Clinton's in 2016 even in these polls where he averages 10% leads. But he more than makes up for it with a big improvement in the white vote where he's barely behind at all.


    Biden doing badly with Hispanic (or more accurately specific Hispanic groups) is why I'm eying up a bet on Trump in Florida.

    But the claim is about the Trump strength with African Americans and all I'm seeing is line noise not any real movement.
  • BannedinnParisBannedinnParis Posts: 1,884

    As yet, of course, there is no vaccine or treatment and the possibility of an early upturn is very real. Just look at what is happening in Portugal at the moment which until now had seen relatively few infections and deaths.

    Perhaps Portugal is getting more now because it hasn't had many before.

    ... perhaps ...

    I mean, I have my Well Quite klaxon for a reason.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,004
    TOPPING said:

    It is clear Boris has to act to open the economy and it is a big call

    I hope it succeeds and I would not want the responsibility

    One thing is absolutely certain, a whole phalanx of individuals and organisation will actively attack the decisions for political reasons, with no care for the outcomes as they have a perverse attitude that the worse everything gets the better, in a vain hope they will achieve their own agendas

    Do you think in general Big G that, say, the opposition should just shut up and let the government get on with it as it is transparently obvious that the Labour Party are only pursuing their own political agenda.
    Not at all.

    Indeed I am not criticising Starmer but there are many in the media and on here actively wanting Boris to fail, and that is just not acceptable at this moment in a national crisis
  • kamskikamski Posts: 4,199
    Pulpstar said:

    I've been wearing an N95 respirator every trip to the shops. Gives an amazing feeling of superiority knowing your mask is one of those 'unless it's medical grade' exceptions which gives you a bit more protection than the average mask.

    Also looks a bit easier to breathe in compared to the standard surgical or cloth masks.
    20% feeling smug, 80% safety for me.
    My other half can't abide them - she's off to the shops just this moment ! The one way system in the shops sends her loopy. So if I get it it'll probably be from her :D

    Is it really easier to breathe in N95 mask? That's the opposite to what I've heard from people I know who wear them professionally in hospitals. I hope it's properly fitted.

    I also hope it's not one with a front valve - they apparently spread your virus further than wearing no mask, unless you wear a mask over your mask to protect others.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,020
    IanB2 said:

    Foxy said:

    Nigelb said:

    felix said:

    Nigelb said:

    ClippP said:

    First. Johnson is a chancer and a gambler, and in this case he is gambling with all of our lives - all for the sake of a quick headline, and an opportunity to boost his drooping poll ratings.

    He is no more to be trusted than Trump is.

    It's primarily because of the economy and, yes, pressure from the Red Tops.

    When the second wave hits, which it will, he's going to take a hammering.

    Out in the High Streets there is already no social distancing, no hand sanitisers, no temperature checkers, no contact tracing and very few face masks.

    A second wave is coming, probably around mid-July.
    It’s not quite like that - I’d guess that a large majority of the population is taking precautions of varying degrees (nowhere near that wearing masks), but the rest have, or are about to, give up bothering.
    But yes, a second wave looks probable; perhaps not quite as soon as that.
    Where I am in Spain lockdown is over but the majority of people I see are being very careful and responsible. Masks are obligatory in all shops and other public spaces - you don't get into a supermarket wothout masks/gloves and sanitisers are everywhere. The level of compliance is very high. Maybe a relic of the more authoritarian past of the country but it is very re-assuring. TBF I live in a relatively quiet area near the coast yes but with only modest numbers of tourists - our beaches are failry quiet other than in August and then nothing like the more famous costas.
    Yes, masks are essential in crowded indoor spaces, and most of us aren’t wearing them.
    Compliance by patients and staff at the hospital is close to 100% in corridors, lifts, and waiting areas.

    British people are fine with masks, provided others are wearing them too. Ours is a embarrassed nation, and it is embarrassing to be inappropriately dressed. Britons will wear them if others do, and not if others do not. Peer pressure is needed.
    That reminds me of my QM2 crossings last year; on formal nights every Brit followed the dinner jacket dress code, and there are plenty of posts on travel forums from anxious Brits eager to find out what they could and couldn’t wear, whereas there were plenty of Americans and Canadians relaxed enough to bring their own interpretations to the table.
    Those damn colonials have no class.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,949
    Alistair said:

    Quincel said:

    Alistair said:

    Ftpt

    MrEd said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Trump to win Michigan at 3.1 on betfair worth a punt I reckon. Latest polls had him down only by 1 or 2, and Michigan is exactly the kind of place where undercounted white working class might make him overperform his polling.

    Agreed. It's quite possible that Trump wins Michigan, but not the Presidency (see Florida).

    But if he loses Michigan, then I think he really struggles to win the Presidency, because that means the Midwest is lost.

    3-1 is great odds. Take it.
    Agreed re Michigan. I think if that is the case though, PA is also worth a bet, especially if Trump is making small but crucial progress in the Black vote.
    Could you please post some polling backup for this claim
    I was also skeptical when I first saw this go around, but there is ample evidence. For example, I've looked at the last 5 national polls on RCP, 4 of which have a racial breakdown, and compared them to the 2016 CNN Exit Poll (which isn't gospel, but is a decent guesstimate for the 2016 results). As you'll see, Biden's lead in black and hispanic voters is slightly down on Clinton's in 2016 even in these polls where he averages 10% leads. But he more than makes up for it with a big improvement in the white vote where he's barely behind at all.


    Biden doing badly with Hispanic (or more accurately specific Hispanic groups) is why I'm eying up a bet on Trump in Florida.

    But the claim is about the Trump strength with African Americans and all I'm seeing is line noise not any real movement.
    The claim was "Trump is making small but crucial progress in the Black vote" and despite Biden having an 8% higher national lead than Clinton his lead in the Black vote is down 4.75%. Isn't that evidence for Trump making 'small but crucial progress'?

    I'm not saying Trump definitely is making progress, subsamples aren't weighted and are noisy, but it is polling backup isn't it?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603
    It's also interesting that manufacturing has returned to growth on the preliminary measure. It lines up with what I was seeing from our proprietary data a week or so ago.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950

    TOPPING said:

    It is clear Boris has to act to open the economy and it is a big call

    I hope it succeeds and I would not want the responsibility

    One thing is absolutely certain, a whole phalanx of individuals and organisation will actively attack the decisions for political reasons, with no care for the outcomes as they have a perverse attitude that the worse everything gets the better, in a vain hope they will achieve their own agendas

    Do you think in general Big G that, say, the opposition should just shut up and let the government get on with it as it is transparently obvious that the Labour Party are only pursuing their own political agenda.
    Not at all.

    Indeed I am not criticising Starmer but there are many in the media and on here actively wanting Boris to fail, and that is just not acceptable at this moment in a national crisis
    It is always acceptable to interrogate the current government.

    I appreciate that in difficult times people want to hang on to nanny but it's not healthy.
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 3,853

    Morning all,

    "pub-goers to provide names and addresses"

    Of course wouldn't be needed if the Government had gone with the Apple/Google OS kludge and built a working app by now.

    Like Germany.

    What about people who don't have a smart phone or those who do and don't download the app ?
    I believe to have a system that copes with the virus threat to a reasonable degree not everyone has to use it, just a sufficient number.

    imho more people will use it if there fewer privacy concerns i.e. not the NHSX centralised, all-sing-no-dancing mythical app.

    It seems not everyone is 'playing the game' with the manual, telephone track and trace as it is.
    Will people isolate if asked by an anonymous request with no information as to how or when the potentially infective encounter too place? I'm not convinced. If they aren't playing the game already, why would they play this one?

    To be honest, I don't think the Google/Apple method will work. I think the "nudge unit" probably realised this from the beginning, but to save some kind of face they'll have to produce an app of some kind.

    The only way it would work is if Apple changed their API.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,020

    People complaining it's too early haven't got a clue about the realities of businesses. For summer reliant hospitality they've already lost some of the busiest months of the year. To lose Mother's Day, May and June is not made up by having a furlough scheme.

    Things won't get back to normal now but with the ability to maybe trade in July and August they've got at least a chance. If those months were written off too you could increase the number of businesses never to reopen by an order of magnitude.

    Any news about hotels, self catering or B&Bs yet?

    I'd argue those are lower risk (in the main) than pubs and restaurants.
  • The US is heading for a second wave and we're - IMHO - opening up too early. The idea we're just going to bounce back just seems laughable but I hope for all our sakes, I am very wrong
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,020
    kle4 said:

    Question: is easing of lockdown regulations going to be uniform across the UK, or will there be different levels of easing based on regional/local conditions?

    Welcome back to the site. There are four parts of the UK - England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. As I understand it the changes here will apply to just England
    I love it when Englishmen refer to their own country as a “part”. Athelstan, Drake, Churchill et al will be spinning in their graves.
    Why would that bother me? I'm not just English I'm British as well, I dont think it diminishes the former any more than acknowledging it is part of Europe (or the EU, when that was the case), and I think Aethelstan and Drake in particular would probably find much else to spin about. Indeed, I think being a part of something makes England greater.
    It bothers him because it puts England on an equal footing with Scotland in the Union.

    Most of Scottish nationalism is driven by a deep-seated resentment and loathing of England, coupled with an inferiority complex, and they don't like it when someone posts something that goes against that.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,004
    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    It is clear Boris has to act to open the economy and it is a big call

    I hope it succeeds and I would not want the responsibility

    One thing is absolutely certain, a whole phalanx of individuals and organisation will actively attack the decisions for political reasons, with no care for the outcomes as they have a perverse attitude that the worse everything gets the better, in a vain hope they will achieve their own agendas

    Do you think in general Big G that, say, the opposition should just shut up and let the government get on with it as it is transparently obvious that the Labour Party are only pursuing their own political agenda.
    Not at all.

    Indeed I am not criticising Starmer but there are many in the media and on here actively wanting Boris to fail, and that is just not acceptable at this moment in a national crisis
    It is always acceptable to interrogate the current government.

    I appreciate that in difficult times people want to hang on to nanny but it's not healthy.
    Agreed
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,020
    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    malcolmg said:

    DavidL said:

    June is going to be another month with a £50bn+ deficit. Anyone who claims that we are coming out of the lockdown too soon is just completely ignoring the economic realities of the situation. The government cannot continue to pay its 5m employees and another 8m furloughed without income coming in.
    It is of course highly regrettable that after 3 months of this we have still not got much of a trace and test system in place. I am not sure that there is anything inevitable about a second wave but such a system would have reduced the risk. In my experience people take social distancing at least as seriously as they should, arguably much more so given the relatively modest number of cases in the community right now but the lockdown has collapsed around the edges with families and friends once again visiting each other relatively freely and kids meeting up with their pals as a matter of routine.
    Scotland is in serious danger of being left behind in all this with an overly cautious and maternalistic government being much more equivocal about normal life starting again. This will cost hundreds of Scottish businesses and thousands of Scottish jobs. Ironically, the additional weakening of the Scottish economy and the inevitably greater reliance upon English subsidy just might save the Union.

    You are dreaming David, the shambles from Tories has already cost many Scottish lives , we should not allow their greed to cause more. The sooner we are free of these criminals and shysters the better. Given the state they have made of Scotland we can do no worse on our own , trying to pretend we are subsidised is pathetic.
    The key to independence is a viable economy but a bureaucratic, public service dominated Scottish government has never seen that, being much more focused on "freebies" than the economic results. Our University sector is facing devastation as a result of such policies but it is not alone. The Highlands will be economically destroyed by Nicola's reluctance to follow suite and we will sadly have a legacy of semi-derelict hotels, cafes and shops for a long time to come.
    In my own line of work the Scottish Courts system is already at least 8 weeks behind England in terms of opening up again and announcement after announcement by Scottish Courts is followed by really pitiful amounts of action on the ground and the odd token hearing with no jury trials until next month at the earliest and then only 2 set down.
    I'm afraid that you are the one that is dreaming Malcolm if you think such caution and hesitancy comes without a price.
    The irony is that to be a viable independent nation Scotland really needs to be led by a party like the Tories with a focus on the economy.

    But unless Scotland goes independent they're never going to get that.

    It's a Catch 22 dilemma.
    I once knew a Welsh nationalist who desperately wanted independence because he thought the only way to remove the sclerotic and desperately corrupt Welsh public sector was an economic collapse followed by a total rebuild from first principles.

    He thought independence was the best and possibly only way to achieve that.
    He'd get the economic collapse bit.

    He wouldn't get the total rebuild from first principles.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    When Johnson does it it’s an irresponsible folly.

    St Nicola, on the other hand....

    https://twitter.com/paulhutcheon/status/1275335901527379968?s=20
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,020
    Quincel said:

    Alistair said:

    Quincel said:

    Alistair said:

    Ftpt

    MrEd said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Trump to win Michigan at 3.1 on betfair worth a punt I reckon. Latest polls had him down only by 1 or 2, and Michigan is exactly the kind of place where undercounted white working class might make him overperform his polling.

    Agreed. It's quite possible that Trump wins Michigan, but not the Presidency (see Florida).

    But if he loses Michigan, then I think he really struggles to win the Presidency, because that means the Midwest is lost.

    3-1 is great odds. Take it.
    Agreed re Michigan. I think if that is the case though, PA is also worth a bet, especially if Trump is making small but crucial progress in the Black vote.
    Could you please post some polling backup for this claim
    I was also skeptical when I first saw this go around, but there is ample evidence. For example, I've looked at the last 5 national polls on RCP, 4 of which have a racial breakdown, and compared them to the 2016 CNN Exit Poll (which isn't gospel, but is a decent guesstimate for the 2016 results). As you'll see, Biden's lead in black and hispanic voters is slightly down on Clinton's in 2016 even in these polls where he averages 10% leads. But he more than makes up for it with a big improvement in the white vote where he's barely behind at all.


    Biden doing badly with Hispanic (or more accurately specific Hispanic groups) is why I'm eying up a bet on Trump in Florida.

    But the claim is about the Trump strength with African Americans and all I'm seeing is line noise not any real movement.
    The claim was "Trump is making small but crucial progress in the Black vote" and despite Biden having an 8% higher national lead than Clinton his lead in the Black vote is down 4.75%. Isn't that evidence for Trump making 'small but crucial progress'?

    I'm not saying Trump definitely is making progress, subsamples aren't weighted and are noisy, but it is polling backup isn't it?
    Given how widely hated Trump is on this website and how enthusiastically people are relishing his defeat: my antenna are up for confirmation bias.

    It's a long long time until November.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 24,967

    The US is heading for a second wave and we're - IMHO - opening up too early. The idea we're just going to bounce back just seems laughable but I hope for all our sakes, I am very wrong

    The economy is already bouncing back, how far and how quickly we don't know yet.

    And the country has been opening up steadily for almost two months now.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Has anywhere yet seen both a major first wave and then a second wave.

    The US in aggregate appears to be doing so but that's misleading as the (primarily blue) states that were hit hard first still seem to be falling while the (primarily red) states that got off lightly first time around are now getting hit.

    If it is a case countries/regions are hit hard once then we may have had our hard hit already and not have a second wave. Fingers crossed.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    malcolmg said:

    DavidL said:

    June is going to be another month with a £50bn+ deficit. Anyone who claims that we are coming out of the lockdown too soon is just completely ignoring the economic realities of the situation. The government cannot continue to pay its 5m employees and another 8m furloughed without income coming in.
    It is of course highly regrettable that after 3 months of this we have still not got much of a trace and test system in place. I am not sure that there is anything inevitable about a second wave but such a system would have reduced the risk. In my experience people take social distancing at least as seriously as they should, arguably much more so given the relatively modest number of cases in the community right now but the lockdown has collapsed around the edges with families and friends once again visiting each other relatively freely and kids meeting up with their pals as a matter of routine.
    Scotland is in serious danger of being left behind in all this with an overly cautious and maternalistic government being much more equivocal about normal life starting again. This will cost hundreds of Scottish businesses and thousands of Scottish jobs. Ironically, the additional weakening of the Scottish economy and the inevitably greater reliance upon English subsidy just might save the Union.

    You are dreaming David, the shambles from Tories has already cost many Scottish lives , we should not allow their greed to cause more. The sooner we are free of these criminals and shysters the better. Given the state they have made of Scotland we can do no worse on our own , trying to pretend we are subsidised is pathetic.
    The key to independence is a viable economy but a bureaucratic, public service dominated Scottish government has never seen that, being much more focused on "freebies" than the economic results. Our University sector is facing devastation as a result of such policies but it is not alone. The Highlands will be economically destroyed by Nicola's reluctance to follow suite and we will sadly have a legacy of semi-derelict hotels, cafes and shops for a long time to come.
    In my own line of work the Scottish Courts system is already at least 8 weeks behind England in terms of opening up again and announcement after announcement by Scottish Courts is followed by really pitiful amounts of action on the ground and the odd token hearing with no jury trials until next month at the earliest and then only 2 set down.
    I'm afraid that you are the one that is dreaming Malcolm if you think such caution and hesitancy comes without a price.
    The irony is that to be a viable independent nation Scotland really needs to be led by a party like the Tories with a focus on the economy.

    But unless Scotland goes independent they're never going to get that.

    It's a Catch 22 dilemma.
    I once knew a Welsh nationalist who desperately wanted independence because he thought the only way to remove the sclerotic and desperately corrupt Welsh public sector was an economic collapse followed by a total rebuild from first principles.

    He thought independence was the best and possibly only way to achieve that.
    He'd get the economic collapse bit.

    He wouldn't get the total rebuild from first principles.
    Why not?

    Without the Welsh getting fiscal transfers from England anymore they'd have no choice but to rebuild the economy.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789

    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    malcolmg said:

    DavidL said:

    June is going to be another month with a £50bn+ deficit. Anyone who claims that we are coming out of the lockdown too soon is just completely ignoring the economic realities of the situation. The government cannot continue to pay its 5m employees and another 8m furloughed without income coming in.
    It is of course highly regrettable that after 3 months of this we have still not got much of a trace and test system in place. I am not sure that there is anything inevitable about a second wave but such a system would have reduced the risk. In my experience people take social distancing at least as seriously as they should, arguably much more so given the relatively modest number of cases in the community right now but the lockdown has collapsed around the edges with families and friends once again visiting each other relatively freely and kids meeting up with their pals as a matter of routine.
    Scotland is in serious danger of being left behind in all this with an overly cautious and maternalistic government being much more equivocal about normal life starting again. This will cost hundreds of Scottish businesses and thousands of Scottish jobs. Ironically, the additional weakening of the Scottish economy and the inevitably greater reliance upon English subsidy just might save the Union.

    You are dreaming David, the shambles from Tories has already cost many Scottish lives , we should not allow their greed to cause more. The sooner we are free of these criminals and shysters the better. Given the state they have made of Scotland we can do no worse on our own , trying to pretend we are subsidised is pathetic.
    The key to independence is a viable economy but a bureaucratic, public service dominated Scottish government has never seen that, being much more focused on "freebies" than the economic results. Our University sector is facing devastation as a result of such policies but it is not alone. The Highlands will be economically destroyed by Nicola's reluctance to follow suite and we will sadly have a legacy of semi-derelict hotels, cafes and shops for a long time to come.
    In my own line of work the Scottish Courts system is already at least 8 weeks behind England in terms of opening up again and announcement after announcement by Scottish Courts is followed by really pitiful amounts of action on the ground and the odd token hearing with no jury trials until next month at the earliest and then only 2 set down.
    I'm afraid that you are the one that is dreaming Malcolm if you think such caution and hesitancy comes without a price.
    The irony is that to be a viable independent nation Scotland really needs to be led by a party like the Tories with a focus on the economy.

    But unless Scotland goes independent they're never going to get that.

    It's a Catch 22 dilemma.
    I once knew a Welsh nationalist who desperately wanted independence because he thought the only way to remove the sclerotic and desperately corrupt Welsh public sector was an economic collapse followed by a total rebuild from first principles.

    He thought independence was the best and possibly only way to achieve that.
    He'd get the economic collapse bit.

    He wouldn't get the total rebuild from first principles.
    Why not?

    Without the Welsh getting fiscal transfers from England anymore they'd have no choice but to rebuild the economy.
    It sounds like you should be a fan of the way the Eurozone is structured.

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,043

    Quincel said:

    Alistair said:

    Quincel said:

    Alistair said:

    Ftpt

    MrEd said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Trump to win Michigan at 3.1 on betfair worth a punt I reckon. Latest polls had him down only by 1 or 2, and Michigan is exactly the kind of place where undercounted white working class might make him overperform his polling.

    Agreed. It's quite possible that Trump wins Michigan, but not the Presidency (see Florida).

    But if he loses Michigan, then I think he really struggles to win the Presidency, because that means the Midwest is lost.

    3-1 is great odds. Take it.
    Agreed re Michigan. I think if that is the case though, PA is also worth a bet, especially if Trump is making small but crucial progress in the Black vote.
    Could you please post some polling backup for this claim
    I was also skeptical when I first saw this go around, but there is ample evidence. For example, I've looked at the last 5 national polls on RCP, 4 of which have a racial breakdown, and compared them to the 2016 CNN Exit Poll (which isn't gospel, but is a decent guesstimate for the 2016 results). As you'll see, Biden's lead in black and hispanic voters is slightly down on Clinton's in 2016 even in these polls where he averages 10% leads. But he more than makes up for it with a big improvement in the white vote where he's barely behind at all.


    Biden doing badly with Hispanic (or more accurately specific Hispanic groups) is why I'm eying up a bet on Trump in Florida.

    But the claim is about the Trump strength with African Americans and all I'm seeing is line noise not any real movement.
    The claim was "Trump is making small but crucial progress in the Black vote" and despite Biden having an 8% higher national lead than Clinton his lead in the Black vote is down 4.75%. Isn't that evidence for Trump making 'small but crucial progress'?

    I'm not saying Trump definitely is making progress, subsamples aren't weighted and are noisy, but it is polling backup isn't it?
    Given how widely hated Trump is on this website and how enthusiastically people are relishing his defeat: my antenna are up for confirmation bias.

    It's a long long time until November.
    :+1: to your 2nd point.

    As I posted yesterday, seems far too many Dems are already getting complacent.

    Fatal.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,004

    The US is heading for a second wave and we're - IMHO - opening up too early. The idea we're just going to bounce back just seems laughable but I hope for all our sakes, I am very wrong

    These are huge decisions and to be fair Boris has little choice.

    It is time we welcomed the opening of the economy and if a second wave does occur we have far more knowledge and preparation to mitigate it now, than at the onset

    Remember, we are not only talking about millions of jobs, but terrible mental health issues and catastrophic loss of our childrens education

    We cannot go on hiding in fear waiting for absolute safety from the virus
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,020

    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    malcolmg said:

    DavidL said:

    June is going to be another month with a £50bn+ deficit. Anyone who claims that we are coming out of the lockdown too soon is just completely ignoring the economic realities of the situation. The government cannot continue to pay its 5m employees and another 8m furloughed without income coming in.
    It is of course highly regrettable that after 3 months of this we have still not got much of a trace and test system in place. I am not sure that there is anything inevitable about a second wave but such a system would have reduced the risk. In my experience people take social distancing at least as seriously as they should, arguably much more so given the relatively modest number of cases in the community right now but the lockdown has collapsed around the edges with families and friends once again visiting each other relatively freely and kids meeting up with their pals as a matter of routine.
    Scotland is in serious danger of being left behind in all this with an overly cautious and maternalistic government being much more equivocal about normal life starting again. This will cost hundreds of Scottish businesses and thousands of Scottish jobs. Ironically, the additional weakening of the Scottish economy and the inevitably greater reliance upon English subsidy just might save the Union.

    You are dreaming David, the shambles from Tories has already cost many Scottish lives , we should not allow their greed to cause more. The sooner we are free of these criminals and shysters the better. Given the state they have made of Scotland we can do no worse on our own , trying to pretend we are subsidised is pathetic.
    The key to independence is a viable economy but a bureaucratic, public service dominated Scottish government has never seen that, being much more focused on "freebies" than the economic results. Our University sector is facing devastation as a result of such policies but it is not alone. The Highlands will be economically destroyed by Nicola's reluctance to follow suite and we will sadly have a legacy of semi-derelict hotels, cafes and shops for a long time to come.
    In my own line of work the Scottish Courts system is already at least 8 weeks behind England in terms of opening up again and announcement after announcement by Scottish Courts is followed by really pitiful amounts of action on the ground and the odd token hearing with no jury trials until next month at the earliest and then only 2 set down.
    I'm afraid that you are the one that is dreaming Malcolm if you think such caution and hesitancy comes without a price.
    The irony is that to be a viable independent nation Scotland really needs to be led by a party like the Tories with a focus on the economy.

    But unless Scotland goes independent they're never going to get that.

    It's a Catch 22 dilemma.
    I once knew a Welsh nationalist who desperately wanted independence because he thought the only way to remove the sclerotic and desperately corrupt Welsh public sector was an economic collapse followed by a total rebuild from first principles.

    He thought independence was the best and possibly only way to achieve that.
    He'd get the economic collapse bit.

    He wouldn't get the total rebuild from first principles.
    Why not?

    Without the Welsh getting fiscal transfers from England anymore they'd have no choice but to rebuild the economy.
    The economy would stabilise at a level that would be smaller, with greatly reduced spending on public services and a drop in living standards.

    I'm not sure that what he's after.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789

    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    malcolmg said:

    DavidL said:

    June is going to be another month with a £50bn+ deficit. Anyone who claims that we are coming out of the lockdown too soon is just completely ignoring the economic realities of the situation. The government cannot continue to pay its 5m employees and another 8m furloughed without income coming in.
    It is of course highly regrettable that after 3 months of this we have still not got much of a trace and test system in place. I am not sure that there is anything inevitable about a second wave but such a system would have reduced the risk. In my experience people take social distancing at least as seriously as they should, arguably much more so given the relatively modest number of cases in the community right now but the lockdown has collapsed around the edges with families and friends once again visiting each other relatively freely and kids meeting up with their pals as a matter of routine.
    Scotland is in serious danger of being left behind in all this with an overly cautious and maternalistic government being much more equivocal about normal life starting again. This will cost hundreds of Scottish businesses and thousands of Scottish jobs. Ironically, the additional weakening of the Scottish economy and the inevitably greater reliance upon English subsidy just might save the Union.

    You are dreaming David, the shambles from Tories has already cost many Scottish lives , we should not allow their greed to cause more. The sooner we are free of these criminals and shysters the better. Given the state they have made of Scotland we can do no worse on our own , trying to pretend we are subsidised is pathetic.
    The key to independence is a viable economy but a bureaucratic, public service dominated Scottish government has never seen that, being much more focused on "freebies" than the economic results. Our University sector is facing devastation as a result of such policies but it is not alone. The Highlands will be economically destroyed by Nicola's reluctance to follow suite and we will sadly have a legacy of semi-derelict hotels, cafes and shops for a long time to come.
    In my own line of work the Scottish Courts system is already at least 8 weeks behind England in terms of opening up again and announcement after announcement by Scottish Courts is followed by really pitiful amounts of action on the ground and the odd token hearing with no jury trials until next month at the earliest and then only 2 set down.
    I'm afraid that you are the one that is dreaming Malcolm if you think such caution and hesitancy comes without a price.
    The irony is that to be a viable independent nation Scotland really needs to be led by a party like the Tories with a focus on the economy.

    But unless Scotland goes independent they're never going to get that.

    It's a Catch 22 dilemma.
    I once knew a Welsh nationalist who desperately wanted independence because he thought the only way to remove the sclerotic and desperately corrupt Welsh public sector was an economic collapse followed by a total rebuild from first principles.

    He thought independence was the best and possibly only way to achieve that.
    He'd get the economic collapse bit.

    He wouldn't get the total rebuild from first principles.
    Why not?

    Without the Welsh getting fiscal transfers from England anymore they'd have no choice but to rebuild the economy.
    The economy would stabilise at a level that would be smaller, with greatly reduced spending on public services and a drop in living standards.

    I'm not sure that what he's after.
    Do you think it’s impossible for Wales’s GDP per capita to match Ireland’s?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,004

    The US is heading for a second wave and we're - IMHO - opening up too early. The idea we're just going to bounce back just seems laughable but I hope for all our sakes, I am very wrong

    The economy is already bouncing back, how far and how quickly we don't know yet.

    And the country has been opening up steadily for almost two months now.
    PMI at 47 is remarkable

  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    malcolmg said:

    DavidL said:

    June is going to be another month with a £50bn+ deficit. Anyone who claims that we are coming out of the lockdown too soon is just completely ignoring the economic realities of the situation. The government cannot continue to pay its 5m employees and another 8m furloughed without income coming in.
    It is of course highly regrettable that after 3 months of this we have still not got much of a trace and test system in place. I am not sure that there is anything inevitable about a second wave but such a system would have reduced the risk. In my experience people take social distancing at least as seriously as they should, arguably much more so given the relatively modest number of cases in the community right now but the lockdown has collapsed around the edges with families and friends once again visiting each other relatively freely and kids meeting up with their pals as a matter of routine.
    Scotland is in serious danger of being left behind in all this with an overly cautious and maternalistic government being much more equivocal about normal life starting again. This will cost hundreds of Scottish businesses and thousands of Scottish jobs. Ironically, the additional weakening of the Scottish economy and the inevitably greater reliance upon English subsidy just might save the Union.

    You are dreaming David, the shambles from Tories has already cost many Scottish lives , we should not allow their greed to cause more. The sooner we are free of these criminals and shysters the better. Given the state they have made of Scotland we can do no worse on our own , trying to pretend we are subsidised is pathetic.
    The key to independence is a viable economy but a bureaucratic, public service dominated Scottish government has never seen that, being much more focused on "freebies" than the economic results. Our University sector is facing devastation as a result of such policies but it is not alone. The Highlands will be economically destroyed by Nicola's reluctance to follow suite and we will sadly have a legacy of semi-derelict hotels, cafes and shops for a long time to come.
    In my own line of work the Scottish Courts system is already at least 8 weeks behind England in terms of opening up again and announcement after announcement by Scottish Courts is followed by really pitiful amounts of action on the ground and the odd token hearing with no jury trials until next month at the earliest and then only 2 set down.
    I'm afraid that you are the one that is dreaming Malcolm if you think such caution and hesitancy comes without a price.
    The irony is that to be a viable independent nation Scotland really needs to be led by a party like the Tories with a focus on the economy.

    But unless Scotland goes independent they're never going to get that.

    It's a Catch 22 dilemma.
    I once knew a Welsh nationalist who desperately wanted independence because he thought the only way to remove the sclerotic and desperately corrupt Welsh public sector was an economic collapse followed by a total rebuild from first principles.

    He thought independence was the best and possibly only way to achieve that.
    He'd get the economic collapse bit.

    He wouldn't get the total rebuild from first principles.
    Why not?

    Without the Welsh getting fiscal transfers from England anymore they'd have no choice but to rebuild the economy.
    It sounds like you should be a fan of the way the Eurozone is structured.

    Not a bit.

    Countries should have control of their own monetary policy. I am saying that the Welsh would be better off controling their own nation and responsible for themselves so how the fudge do you think that means I think that dozens of nations should abdicate responsibility for a critical part of their own nation?

    I'd sooner support a Welsh currency than a pan European one.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,772

    When Johnson does it it’s an irresponsible folly.

    St Nicola, on the other hand....

    https://twitter.com/paulhutcheon/status/1275335901527379968?s=20

    There is as much rejoicing in heaven, etc. This really should be an end to the schools debate as well. At 1m they really should be able to have all kids back full time in August.
  • NorthofStokeNorthofStoke Posts: 1,758
    I believe that in S Korea they use card payment data for tracing people in a bar or cafe. I doubt that would be politically possible here but as a temporary measure I would support it and cash should be banned in pubs in any case. The auto detection of contacts via mobile phones detecting each other is very difficult to make effective. If there are too many false positives (transient contacts) then people will ignore isolation requests. Should they be made compulsory with penalties? I'm hoping that R will remain below 1 despite loosening, we will still be doing more distancing and better hygiene than at the start of the outbreak.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789

    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    malcolmg said:

    DavidL said:

    June is going to be another month with a £50bn+ deficit. Anyone who claims that we are coming out of the lockdown too soon is just completely ignoring the economic realities of the situation. The government cannot continue to pay its 5m employees and another 8m furloughed without income coming in.
    It is of course highly regrettable that after 3 months of this we have still not got much of a trace and test system in place. I am not sure that there is anything inevitable about a second wave but such a system would have reduced the risk. In my experience people take social distancing at least as seriously as they should, arguably much more so given the relatively modest number of cases in the community right now but the lockdown has collapsed around the edges with families and friends once again visiting each other relatively freely and kids meeting up with their pals as a matter of routine.
    Scotland is in serious danger of being left behind in all this with an overly cautious and maternalistic government being much more equivocal about normal life starting again. This will cost hundreds of Scottish businesses and thousands of Scottish jobs. Ironically, the additional weakening of the Scottish economy and the inevitably greater reliance upon English subsidy just might save the Union.

    You are dreaming David, the shambles from Tories has already cost many Scottish lives , we should not allow their greed to cause more. The sooner we are free of these criminals and shysters the better. Given the state they have made of Scotland we can do no worse on our own , trying to pretend we are subsidised is pathetic.
    The key to independence is a viable economy but a bureaucratic, public service dominated Scottish government has never seen that, being much more focused on "freebies" than the economic results. Our University sector is facing devastation as a result of such policies but it is not alone. The Highlands will be economically destroyed by Nicola's reluctance to follow suite and we will sadly have a legacy of semi-derelict hotels, cafes and shops for a long time to come.
    In my own line of work the Scottish Courts system is already at least 8 weeks behind England in terms of opening up again and announcement after announcement by Scottish Courts is followed by really pitiful amounts of action on the ground and the odd token hearing with no jury trials until next month at the earliest and then only 2 set down.
    I'm afraid that you are the one that is dreaming Malcolm if you think such caution and hesitancy comes without a price.
    The irony is that to be a viable independent nation Scotland really needs to be led by a party like the Tories with a focus on the economy.

    But unless Scotland goes independent they're never going to get that.

    It's a Catch 22 dilemma.
    I once knew a Welsh nationalist who desperately wanted independence because he thought the only way to remove the sclerotic and desperately corrupt Welsh public sector was an economic collapse followed by a total rebuild from first principles.

    He thought independence was the best and possibly only way to achieve that.
    He'd get the economic collapse bit.

    He wouldn't get the total rebuild from first principles.
    Why not?

    Without the Welsh getting fiscal transfers from England anymore they'd have no choice but to rebuild the economy.
    It sounds like you should be a fan of the way the Eurozone is structured.

    Not a bit.

    Countries should have control of their own monetary policy. I am saying that the Welsh would be better off controling their own nation and responsible for themselves so how the fudge do you think that means I think that dozens of nations should abdicate responsibility for a critical part of their own nation?

    I'd sooner support a Welsh currency than a pan European one.
    What about a British one with full fiscal autonomy for each nation and a central government with a much smaller budget?

  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,004
    DavidL said:

    When Johnson does it it’s an irresponsible folly.

    St Nicola, on the other hand....

    https://twitter.com/paulhutcheon/status/1275335901527379968?s=20

    There is as much rejoicing in heaven, etc. This really should be an end to the schools debate as well. At 1m they really should be able to have all kids back full time in August.
    Where Boris leads Nicola follows but maybe a couple of weeks later to show she is in charge
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 7,981
    The names and addresses for pubs should be a laugh. I am often away from my address for prolonged periods and it often takes a while before letters and mail catch up with me.

    At the same time, I usually use an email for signing up for stuff or services that demand an email and I only check that mailbox periodically. If they demand an email that is the one they will get because I am not handing my usual email out to a pub chain on the door so they can either lose the list or give it to spammers or use it for their own campaigns.

    I presume that they will all be made aware of their legal responsibilities regarding data protection, personal data and GDPR?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,625

    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    malcolmg said:

    DavidL said:

    June is going to be another month with a £50bn+ deficit. Anyone who claims that we are coming out of the lockdown too soon is just completely ignoring the economic realities of the situation. The government cannot continue to pay its 5m employees and another 8m furloughed without income coming in.
    It is of course highly regrettable that after 3 months of this we have still not got much of a trace and test system in place. I am not sure that there is anything inevitable about a second wave but such a system would have reduced the risk. In my experience people take social distancing at least as seriously as they should, arguably much more so given the relatively modest number of cases in the community right now but the lockdown has collapsed around the edges with families and friends once again visiting each other relatively freely and kids meeting up with their pals as a matter of routine.
    Scotland is in serious danger of being left behind in all this with an overly cautious and maternalistic government being much more equivocal about normal life starting again. This will cost hundreds of Scottish businesses and thousands of Scottish jobs. Ironically, the additional weakening of the Scottish economy and the inevitably greater reliance upon English subsidy just might save the Union.

    You are dreaming David, the shambles from Tories has already cost many Scottish lives , we should not allow their greed to cause more. The sooner we are free of these criminals and shysters the better. Given the state they have made of Scotland we can do no worse on our own , trying to pretend we are subsidised is pathetic.
    The key to independence is a viable economy but a bureaucratic, public service dominated Scottish government has never seen that, being much more focused on "freebies" than the economic results. Our University sector is facing devastation as a result of such policies but it is not alone. The Highlands will be economically destroyed by Nicola's reluctance to follow suite and we will sadly have a legacy of semi-derelict hotels, cafes and shops for a long time to come.
    In my own line of work the Scottish Courts system is already at least 8 weeks behind England in terms of opening up again and announcement after announcement by Scottish Courts is followed by really pitiful amounts of action on the ground and the odd token hearing with no jury trials until next month at the earliest and then only 2 set down.
    I'm afraid that you are the one that is dreaming Malcolm if you think such caution and hesitancy comes without a price.
    The irony is that to be a viable independent nation Scotland really needs to be led by a party like the Tories with a focus on the economy.

    But unless Scotland goes independent they're never going to get that.

    It's a Catch 22 dilemma.
    I once knew a Welsh nationalist who desperately wanted independence because he thought the only way to remove the sclerotic and desperately corrupt Welsh public sector was an economic collapse followed by a total rebuild from first principles.

    He thought independence was the best and possibly only way to achieve that.
    He'd get the economic collapse bit.

    He wouldn't get the total rebuild from first principles.
    Why not?

    Without the Welsh getting fiscal transfers from England anymore they'd have no choice but to rebuild the economy.
    It sounds like you should be a fan of the way the Eurozone is structured.

    Not a bit.

    Countries should have control of their own monetary policy. I am saying that the Welsh would be better off controling their own nation and responsible for themselves so how the fudge do you think that means I think that dozens of nations should abdicate responsibility for a critical part of their own nation?

    I'd sooner support a Welsh currency than a pan European one.
    I have heard it argued that technology has removed (or potentially removed) most of the impediments associated with multiple currencies.

    And that countries would be better off with *more* specific currencies.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,625

    The names and addresses for pubs should be a laugh. I am often away from my address for prolonged periods and it often takes a while before letters and mail catch up with me.

    At the same time, I usually use an email for signing up for stuff or services that demand an email and I only check that mailbox periodically. If they demand an email that is the one they will get because I am not handing my usual email out to a pub chain on the door so they can either lose the list or give it to spammers or use it for their own campaigns.

    I presume that they will all be made aware of their legal responsibilities regarding data protection, personal data and GDPR?

    Yes.

    If only there was a technology that allowed us to receive messages, while not at a specified location.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,772

    DavidL said:

    When Johnson does it it’s an irresponsible folly.

    St Nicola, on the other hand....

    https://twitter.com/paulhutcheon/status/1275335901527379968?s=20

    There is as much rejoicing in heaven, etc. This really should be an end to the schools debate as well. At 1m they really should be able to have all kids back full time in August.
    Where Boris leads Nicola follows but maybe a couple of weeks later to show she is in charge
    To be honest I think that she has lost the place over the last week to 10 days having had a very strong crisis until that point. The schools situation has been shambolic, the muddle on releasing lockdown has been poor and confusing and she has lost the majority on most of her "guidance".
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Specifically I'm reminded of thr LA Times tracker poll that saw Trump get to 20% of the blakc vote due to
    Quincel said:

    Alistair said:

    Quincel said:

    Alistair said:

    Ftpt

    MrEd said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Trump to win Michigan at 3.1 on betfair worth a punt I reckon. Latest polls had him down only by 1 or 2, and Michigan is exactly the kind of place where undercounted white working class might make him overperform his polling.

    Agreed. It's quite possible that Trump wins Michigan, but not the Presidency (see Florida).

    But if he loses Michigan, then I think he really struggles to win the Presidency, because that means the Midwest is lost.

    3-1 is great odds. Take it.
    Agreed re Michigan. I think if that is the case though, PA is also worth a bet, especially if Trump is making small but crucial progress in the Black vote.
    Could you please post some polling backup for this claim
    I was also skeptical when I first saw this go around, but there is ample evidence. For example, I've looked at the last 5 national polls on RCP, 4 of which have a racial breakdown, and compared them to the 2016 CNN Exit Poll (which isn't gospel, but is a decent guesstimate for the 2016 results). As you'll see, Biden's lead in black and hispanic voters is slightly down on Clinton's in 2016 even in these polls where he averages 10% leads. But he more than makes up for it with a big improvement in the white vote where he's barely behind at all.


    Biden doing badly with Hispanic (or more accurately specific Hispanic groups) is why I'm eying up a bet on Trump in Florida.

    But the claim is about the Trump strength with African Americans and all I'm seeing is line noise not any real movement.
    The claim was "Trump is making small but crucial progress in the Black vote" and despite Biden having an 8% higher national lead than Clinton his lead in the Black vote is down 4.75%. Isn't that evidence for Trump making 'small but crucial progress'?

    I'm not saying Trump definitely is making progress, subsamples aren't weighted and are noisy, but it is polling backup isn't it?
    It's a crucial point. If Trump is making gains amongst the black vote then that throws everything in the air.

    But the subsample reporting of American polls is so shitty that I think at the moment it is impossible to tell.

    I'm reminded of the LA Times tracker that showed Trump getting 20% of the Black vote in 2016 on the basis of one African American respondent.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 18,094
    Good piece.

    For me the obvious question ... what will this do to gyms? We are currently in the car park under gazebos - one person per parking space up to the limit of 5.

    When can we get indoors with similar spacing?
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 7,981

    I have heard it argued that technology has removed (or potentially removed) most of the impediments associated with multiple currencies.

    And that countries would be better off with *more* specific currencies.

    Well, there is always blockchain....

    :D:D
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,020

    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    malcolmg said:

    DavidL said:

    June is going to be another month with a £50bn+ deficit. Anyone who claims that we are coming out of the lockdown too soon is just completely ignoring the economic realities of the situation. The government cannot continue to pay its 5m employees and another 8m furloughed without income coming in.
    It is of course highly regrettable that after 3 months of this we have still not got much of a trace and test system in place. I am not sure that there is anything inevitable about a second wave but such a system would have reduced the risk. In my experience people take social distancing at least as seriously as they should, arguably much more so given the relatively modest number of cases in the community right now but the lockdown has collapsed around the edges with families and friends once again visiting each other relatively freely and kids meeting up with their pals as a matter of routine.
    Scotland is in serious danger of being left behind in all this with an overly cautious and maternalistic government being much more equivocal about normal life starting again. This will cost hundreds of Scottish businesses and thousands of Scottish jobs. Ironically, the additional weakening of the Scottish economy and the inevitably greater reliance upon English subsidy just might save the Union.

    You are dreaming David, the shambles from Tories has already cost many Scottish lives , we should not allow their greed to cause more. The sooner we are free of these criminals and shysters the better. Given the state they have made of Scotland we can do no worse on our own , trying to pretend we are subsidised is pathetic.
    The key to independence is a viable economy but a bureaucratic, public service dominated Scottish government has never seen that, being much more focused on "freebies" than the economic results. Our University sector is facing devastation as a result of such policies but it is not alone. The Highlands will be economically destroyed by Nicola's reluctance to follow suite and we will sadly have a legacy of semi-derelict hotels, cafes and shops for a long time to come.
    In my own line of work the Scottish Courts system is already at least 8 weeks behind England in terms of opening up again and announcement after announcement by Scottish Courts is followed by really pitiful amounts of action on the ground and the odd token hearing with no jury trials until next month at the earliest and then only 2 set down.
    I'm afraid that you are the one that is dreaming Malcolm if you think such caution and hesitancy comes without a price.
    The irony is that to be a viable independent nation Scotland really needs to be led by a party like the Tories with a focus on the economy.

    But unless Scotland goes independent they're never going to get that.

    It's a Catch 22 dilemma.
    I once knew a Welsh nationalist who desperately wanted independence because he thought the only way to remove the sclerotic and desperately corrupt Welsh public sector was an economic collapse followed by a total rebuild from first principles.

    He thought independence was the best and possibly only way to achieve that.
    He'd get the economic collapse bit.

    He wouldn't get the total rebuild from first principles.
    Why not?

    Without the Welsh getting fiscal transfers from England anymore they'd have no choice but to rebuild the economy.
    The economy would stabilise at a level that would be smaller, with greatly reduced spending on public services and a drop in living standards.

    I'm not sure that what he's after.
    Do you think it’s impossible for Wales’s GDP per capita to match Ireland’s?
    Nothing is impossible. However, I'd note it took Ireland over 60 years to get there as it switched from an agricultural-led to a services-led economy, with its commensurate boosts through construction. And it's worth nothing Ireland still had a nasty experience in the financial crisis when that turned sour.

    Key would be attracting inward business investment. Ireland has succeeded in part because it's attracted lots of US multinationals. But it does have a profile advantage there that Wales does not.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,020

    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    malcolmg said:

    DavidL said:

    June is going to be another month with a £50bn+ deficit. Anyone who claims that we are coming out of the lockdown too soon is just completely ignoring the economic realities of the situation. The government cannot continue to pay its 5m employees and another 8m furloughed without income coming in.
    It is of course highly regrettable that after 3 months of this we have still not got much of a trace and test system in place. I am not sure that there is anything inevitable about a second wave but such a system would have reduced the risk. In my experience people take social distancing at least as seriously as they should, arguably much more so given the relatively modest number of cases in the community right now but the lockdown has collapsed around the edges with families and friends once again visiting each other relatively freely and kids meeting up with their pals as a matter of routine.
    Scotland is in serious danger of being left behind in all this with an overly cautious and maternalistic government being much more equivocal about normal life starting again. This will cost hundreds of Scottish businesses and thousands of Scottish jobs. Ironically, the additional weakening of the Scottish economy and the inevitably greater reliance upon English subsidy just might save the Union.

    You are dreaming David, the shambles from Tories has already cost many Scottish lives , we should not allow their greed to cause more. The sooner we are free of these criminals and shysters the better. Given the state they have made of Scotland we can do no worse on our own , trying to pretend we are subsidised is pathetic.
    The key to independence is a viable economy but a bureaucratic, public service dominated Scottish government has never seen that, being much more focused on "freebies" than the economic results. Our University sector is facing devastation as a result of such policies but it is not alone. The Highlands will be economically destroyed by Nicola's reluctance to follow suite and we will sadly have a legacy of semi-derelict hotels, cafes and shops for a long time to come.
    In my own line of work the Scottish Courts system is already at least 8 weeks behind England in terms of opening up again and announcement after announcement by Scottish Courts is followed by really pitiful amounts of action on the ground and the odd token hearing with no jury trials until next month at the earliest and then only 2 set down.
    I'm afraid that you are the one that is dreaming Malcolm if you think such caution and hesitancy comes without a price.
    The irony is that to be a viable independent nation Scotland really needs to be led by a party like the Tories with a focus on the economy.

    But unless Scotland goes independent they're never going to get that.

    It's a Catch 22 dilemma.
    I once knew a Welsh nationalist who desperately wanted independence because he thought the only way to remove the sclerotic and desperately corrupt Welsh public sector was an economic collapse followed by a total rebuild from first principles.

    He thought independence was the best and possibly only way to achieve that.
    He'd get the economic collapse bit.

    He wouldn't get the total rebuild from first principles.
    Why not?

    Without the Welsh getting fiscal transfers from England anymore they'd have no choice but to rebuild the economy.
    It sounds like you should be a fan of the way the Eurozone is structured.

    Not a bit.

    Countries should have control of their own monetary policy. I am saying that the Welsh would be better off controling their own nation and responsible for themselves so how the fudge do you think that means I think that dozens of nations should abdicate responsibility for a critical part of their own nation?

    I'd sooner support a Welsh currency than a pan European one.
    Philip, are you still running a pub?

    If so, what are your plans?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,718

    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    malcolmg said:

    DavidL said:

    June is going to be another month with a £50bn+ deficit. Anyone who claims that we are coming out of the lockdown too soon is just completely ignoring the economic realities of the situation. The government cannot continue to pay its 5m employees and another 8m furloughed without income coming in.
    It is of course highly regrettable that after 3 months of this we have still not got much of a trace and test system in place. I am not sure that there is anything inevitable about a second wave but such a system would have reduced the risk. In my experience people take social distancing at least as seriously as they should, arguably much more so given the relatively modest number of cases in the community right now but the lockdown has collapsed around the edges with families and friends once again visiting each other relatively freely and kids meeting up with their pals as a matter of routine.
    Scotland is in serious danger of being left behind in all this with an overly cautious and maternalistic government being much more equivocal about normal life starting again. This will cost hundreds of Scottish businesses and thousands of Scottish jobs. Ironically, the additional weakening of the Scottish economy and the inevitably greater reliance upon English subsidy just might save the Union.

    You are dreaming David, the shambles from Tories has already cost many Scottish lives , we should not allow their greed to cause more. The sooner we are free of these criminals and shysters the better. Given the state they have made of Scotland we can do no worse on our own , trying to pretend we are subsidised is pathetic.
    The key to independence is a viable economy but a bureaucratic, public service dominated Scottish government has never seen that, being much more focused on "freebies" than the economic results. Our University sector is facing devastation as a result of such policies but it is not alone. The Highlands will be economically destroyed by Nicola's reluctance to follow suite and we will sadly have a legacy of semi-derelict hotels, cafes and shops for a long time to come.
    In my own line of work the Scottish Courts system is already at least 8 weeks behind England in terms of opening up again and announcement after announcement by Scottish Courts is followed by really pitiful amounts of action on the ground and the odd token hearing with no jury trials until next month at the earliest and then only 2 set down.
    I'm afraid that you are the one that is dreaming Malcolm if you think such caution and hesitancy comes without a price.
    The irony is that to be a viable independent nation Scotland really needs to be led by a party like the Tories with a focus on the economy.

    But unless Scotland goes independent they're never going to get that.

    It's a Catch 22 dilemma.
    I once knew a Welsh nationalist who desperately wanted independence because he thought the only way to remove the sclerotic and desperately corrupt Welsh public sector was an economic collapse followed by a total rebuild from first principles.

    He thought independence was the best and possibly only way to achieve that.
    He'd get the economic collapse bit.

    He wouldn't get the total rebuild from first principles.
    Why not?

    Without the Welsh getting fiscal transfers from England anymore they'd have no choice but to rebuild the economy.
    The economy would stabilise at a level that would be smaller, with greatly reduced spending on public services and a drop in living standards.

    I'm not sure that what he's after.
    Do you think it’s impossible for Wales’s GDP per capita to match Ireland’s?
    Nothing is impossible. However, I'd note it took Ireland over 60 years to get there as it switched from an agricultural-led to a services-led economy, with its commensurate boosts through construction. And it's worth nothing Ireland still had a nasty experience in the financial crisis when that turned sour.

    Key would be attracting inward business investment. Ireland has succeeded in part because it's attracted lots of US multinationals. But it does have a profile advantage there that Wales does not.
    To be fair, the Great Depression hit within 10 years of Independence, followed a few years later by a World War and a time when the rest of Europe was having to rebuild.
    TBH, I don't think the attitudes and policies of the Catholic Church and de Valera helped, either
  • RattersRatters Posts: 756
    A bit of a misunderstanding of PMIs here. Under 50 indicates contraction relative to the previous month, so increasing from say 20 to 47 just means the rate of contraction has slowed, rather than an indication of a quick rebound.

    A more complete explanation here: http://ftalphaville.ft.com/2020/03/31/1585657722000/China-s-PMI-print-doesn-t-mean-much/
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,575

    Morning all,

    "pub-goers to provide names and addresses"

    Of course wouldn't be needed if the Government had gone with the Apple/Google OS kludge and built a working app by now.

    Like Germany.

    There is that.
    There's also the system (or variations of it) used by the Koreans:

    https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-health-coronavirus-southkorea-qr-code/south-korea-mandates-qr-codes-to-log-customers-after-nightclub-coronavirus-outbreak-idUKKBN239075
    ...The decision to mandate QR codes to register visitors’ identities came after authorities struggled to trace people who had visited a number of nightclubs and bars at the centre of a virus outbreak last month after much of the information on handwritten visitor logs was found to be false or incomplete.

    Starting June 10, visitors to nightclubs, bars, karaoke clubs, daytime discos, indoor gyms that hold group exercises, and indoor standing concert halls, will be required to use any of a number of commercially available apps to generate a one-time, personalized QR code that can be scanned at the door.

    Local governments may also designate other high-risk facilities such as libraries, hospitals, restaurants or churches.

    The person’s information will be logged in a database kept by the Social Security Information Service for four weeks, before it is automatically deleted, according to South Korea’s Ministry of Health and Welfare.


    Ahead of the rollout of the new system, the ministry is testing the system at 17 facilities, including entertainment spots, churches, libraries, restaurants and a hospital.

    Some local governments have already implemented similar QR requirements after the nightclub outbreak, which led to at least 270 cases and raised fears of a second wave of infections.

    Seongdong-gu, a district in the capital city of Seoul, established QR code systems at 172 facilities, according to the district office.
  • SurreySurrey Posts: 190

    O/T Last week my father had the antibody test and it turns out he had Covid-19.

    Considering he hasn't left the house since the 18th of March (and neither has anyone else in this house) that's some achievement.

    I'm re-evaluating my views on the iceberg theory.

    Might he be a false positive?

    What are the false positive and false negative rates for the antibody test, the other test, and when no symptoms have been reported?

    I read somewhere that false positives for the antibody test are around 4%. Not sure whether that's reliable though.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 14,772

    rkrkrk said:

    US looks to be starting off on second wave. UK cases look to be flatlining rather than falling all that much, but maybe it's just that we are testing more. Second wave definitely looks to be a major risk, and our contact tracing system is still nascent.

    US never came out of first wave except in NY and one or two other places.
    The breakdown by party of Governor looks interesting, though California is possibly about to break the clear contrast it currently shows.

    https://tamino.wordpress.com/2020/06/21/covid-19-red-states-blue-states/
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 3,346
    MaxPB said:

    Economy bouncing back in June. It really did feel like it.

    Composite PMI of 47.6 on the preliminary measure. With the shackles coming off completely we should see that go into massively positive territory soon.

    I think we may yet we the fabled V shape recovery, especially if there is a vaccine based boost in October.

    We are being inundated with tenders for new projects
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,069
    Pulpstar said:

    I've been wearing an N95 respirator every trip to the shops. Gives an amazing feeling of superiority knowing your mask is one of those 'unless it's medical grade' exceptions which gives you a bit more protection than the average mask.

    Also looks a bit easier to breathe in compared to the standard surgical or cloth masks.
    20% feeling smug, 80% safety for me.
    My other half can't abide them - she's off to the shops just this moment ! The one way system in the shops sends her loopy. So if I get it it'll probably be from her :D

    Respirator and valved ffp3 masks protect the wearer (if fit tested correctly) but not other people, unlike unvalved ffp3 or regular surgical masks. The valves make breathing more comfortable precisely because there is no resistance to exhalation.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,772

    MaxPB said:

    Economy bouncing back in June. It really did feel like it.

    Composite PMI of 47.6 on the preliminary measure. With the shackles coming off completely we should see that go into massively positive territory soon.

    I think we may yet we the fabled V shape recovery, especially if there is a vaccine based boost in October.

    We are being inundated with tenders for new projects
    47.6 is still contracting and from a low base. If we are to get a V shaped recovery we are going to need to see PMIs in the 70s.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603
    DavidL said:

    MaxPB said:

    Economy bouncing back in June. It really did feel like it.

    Composite PMI of 47.6 on the preliminary measure. With the shackles coming off completely we should see that go into massively positive territory soon.

    I think we may yet we the fabled V shape recovery, especially if there is a vaccine based boost in October.

    We are being inundated with tenders for new projects
    47.6 is still contracting and from a low base. If we are to get a V shaped recovery we are going to need to see PMIs in the 70s.
    I honestly think we might see that in August and September. If there's a vaccine and a mass vaccination program in October then we should see the back of this by November.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,625

    I have heard it argued that technology has removed (or potentially removed) most of the impediments associated with multiple currencies.

    And that countries would be better off with *more* specific currencies.

    Well, there is always blockchain....

    :D:D
    Not sure that Git with hype is really much of a solution - except what-to-do-next for scammers.

    The point is that, in the modern cashless society, with low cost exchange built in, things are very different.

    On the personal level, Revolut has massively changed travel. Many times now I have spent time in a country without using local physical currency.

    For businesses, exchange rates are more of an issue. But even there, the banking system makes thing much smoother than even a decade ago.

    The question is - whether society, as a whole, would see costs or benefits in having currencies tailored to local conditions.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 7,981
    edited June 2020

    The names and addresses for pubs should be a laugh. I am often away from my address for prolonged periods and it often takes a while before letters and mail catch up with me.

    At the same time, I usually use an email for signing up for stuff or services that demand an email and I only check that mailbox periodically. If they demand an email that is the one they will get because I am not handing my usual email out to a pub chain on the door so they can either lose the list or give it to spammers or use it for their own campaigns.

    I presume that they will all be made aware of their legal responsibilities regarding data protection, personal data and GDPR?

    Yes.

    If only there was a technology that allowed us to receive messages, while not at a specified location.
    Indeed. I look forward to receiving emails from lost lists or stolen lists. "Hello. This is the government. You were at a pub recently that has had a COVID infection. You need to get tested immediately. Order a FREE test kit by clicking here - free.test.kit@gov.uk. You will need to pay postage of £2.99 and we only accept credit cards. We really are the govt. We are not scammers who will empty your bank account"

    BTW - Covid scams like this have been doing the rounds for a while now
This discussion has been closed.