Say this is as good as it gets for Biden. He'd still only win about as bigly as Obama's second go.
Que? Obama had a 3.9% lead over Romney. The RCP lead has Biden 10.1 percentage points ahead.
Biden leads consistently in no Romney state except Arizona, he trails consistently in Iowa, he might take North Carolina, but he might lose Ohio. And that is if we believe the polls today would hold. Say it's as good as it gets, and things get worse for him, then the win is more marginal than Obama 2, after everything that has happened re Trump.
Say this is as good as it gets for Biden. He'd still only win about as bigly as Obama's second go.
Que? Obama had a 3.9% lead over Romney. The RCP lead has Biden 10.1 percentage points ahead.
If @HYUFD were here, he would predict a Biden landslide on the basis of current polling. Personally, I think Trump on EV 200-249 with Ladbrokes is the value at 3/1.
I still remain of the view it will be close, as Alistair alludes to there is a shy Trump vote who pretend to pollsters they are undecided or don't know
I knew that two were gay, I didn't know the third was gay. It's gone out of thew news very quickly.
I tend to only scan the news so only really pick up details if something sticks around a lot, I didn't know any were gay.
hard to say if it was a racist or homophobic attack but certainly its not a story parts of the media like the BBC wanted to cover in the current climate. The difference in coverage to events in America appear to have a majority of Brits questioning what passes for a big story these days.
Say this is as good as it gets for Biden. He'd still only win about as bigly as Obama's second go.
Que? Obama had a 3.9% lead over Romney. The RCP lead has Biden 10.1 percentage points ahead.
If @HYUFD were here, he would predict a Biden landslide on the basis of current polling. Personally, I think Trump on EV 200-249 with Ladbrokes is the value at 3/1.
On current polling he's below 200 ECVs.
I am expecting a little swingback, but he could well be trounced bigly.
I am expecting a shy Trump vote this time out. College educated suburban whites who voted Trump in 2016 expecting the "solemn gravity of the office" (copyright every fucking American political journalist 2016) to moderate him and are deeply embarrassed that it hasn't. But that isn't going to stop them voting GOP.
There are lots of Trumpton Butts that you need to factor in. Look at this forum for evidence:
Ave It Mortimer HYUFD Mr Ed William Glenn (?) Andy JS
All play up their dislike for Trump (but), would still vote for him...
The pilots of a Pakistani plane that came down in a residential area, killing 97 of the 99 people on board, were chatting about coronavirus, not paying attention to the landing, the country’s aviation minister said.
Would not the first time that crew distraction during landing or take off was a major contributing factor - it was true in the crash that killed Stephen Colbert's father, and in the worst crash of all time - the KLM/TWA collision in Tenerife where the crews were chatting about the terrorist event in Spain which had re-directed all the planes to Tenerife in the first place while preparing to take off in fog with no ground radar in an overly crowded airport. These incidents led to the rule that, during take-off and landing, there should be no discussions in the cockpit other than about flying the aircraft.
That said, the Pakistani authorities have a disturbing habit of blaming dead pilots, regardless.
I knew that two were gay, I didn't know the third was gay. It's gone out of thew news very quickly.
The murderer was arrested on site, so almost immediately it became sub judice, meaning the papers cannot say much about it. They cannot, for instance, speculate on whether he deliberately attacked gay men or it was just coincidence.
With this really hot weather what's the most appropriate film to watching during the summer?
It has to be a film that was originally released at this time of year.
So I'm going to go for Die Hard.
Body Heat, with the incomparable Kathleen Turner.
Die Hard with a Vengeance is set in a heatwave
Is that the one where he stands with the sandwich board with the n word on it? I presume that needs digital overhaul in these current times.
According to IMDB the tv edit of the movie already has him standing in Harlem with a sign that says 'I hate everyone', making the reaction of the bystanders more inexplicable, but affirming all the same. They just really hate negative people I guess.
For those betting on LibDem leadership - the positon at 5pm tonight. Much too early to read anything into this I think.
I'll feel a little bad for him if he loses yet again, but despite playing up his Tory fighting credentials I just have this suspicion the good people of 2020 are not over the coalition yet and the LDs won't want to risk people bringing it up all the time.
The last LD leadership poll had it Davey 52%, Moran 24%, Cooper 9%
Say this is as good as it gets for Biden. He'd still only win about as bigly as Obama's second go.
Que? Obama had a 3.9% lead over Romney. The RCP lead has Biden 10.1 percentage points ahead.
If @HYUFD were here, he would predict a Biden landslide on the basis of current polling. Personally, I think Trump on EV 200-249 with Ladbrokes is the value at 3/1.
I still remain of the view it will be close, as Alistair alludes to there is a shy Trump vote who pretend to pollsters they are undecided or don't know
Nothing shy about the Trumpsters I see. Place your bets. I think Shadsys odds on 200-249 are pretty good.
Say this is as good as it gets for Biden. He'd still only win about as bigly as Obama's second go.
Que? Obama had a 3.9% lead over Romney. The RCP lead has Biden 10.1 percentage points ahead.
If @HYUFD were here, he would predict a Biden landslide on the basis of current polling. Personally, I think Trump on EV 200-249 with Ladbrokes is the value at 3/1.
On current polling he's below 200 ECVs.
I am expecting a little swingback, but he could well be trounced bigly.
I am expecting a shy Trump vote this time out. College educated suburban whites who voted Trump in 2016 expecting the "solemn gravity of the office" (copyright every fucking American political journalist 2016) to moderate him and are deeply embarrassed that it hasn't. But that isn't going to stop them voting GOP.
There are lots of Trumpton Butts that you need to factor in. Look at this forum for evidence:
Ave It Mortimer HYUFD Mr Ed William Glenn (?) Andy JS
All play up their dislike for Trump (but), would still vote for him...
I wouldn't actually, the last Republican candidate I would have voted for president is George W Bush in 2000, though had the Democrats nominated Sanders rather than Biden I would have voted for Trump
That L1 visa cancellation is really stupid, loads of people having to come back and just do the work from here from what I can tell. They're just going to work NYC trading hours from London and pay tax to the UK government instead of the US government.
I understand why you'd want to tighten up the H1B programme, because a lot of firms (particularly some Indian IT services firms) abused it.
But the L1 is a temporary, non-immigrant, visa that is mostly used for execs on three month to one year stints in the US. I don't think any of them are taking jobs from US workers, they're usually coming to the US to setup an office, or to share experience about a specific project.
Edit to add: The just reinforces my view that Trump is mostly interested in the headlines, not the effect.
I've not yet worked for a company here in the US that didn't have people on long-term L-1 visas. I'm in IT and these are all people with legitimate specialist company knowledge (so L-1Bs not L-1As) but they were all over for the long-term.
Say this is as good as it gets for Biden. He'd still only win about as bigly as Obama's second go.
Que? Obama had a 3.9% lead over Romney. The RCP lead has Biden 10.1 percentage points ahead.
If @HYUFD were here, he would predict a Biden landslide on the basis of current polling. Personally, I think Trump on EV 200-249 with Ladbrokes is the value at 3/1.
On current polling he's below 200 ECVs.
I am expecting a little swingback, but he could well be trounced bigly.
I am expecting a shy Trump vote this time out. College educated suburban whites who voted Trump in 2016 expecting the "solemn gravity of the office" (copyright every fucking American political journalist 2016) to moderate him and are deeply embarrassed that it hasn't. But that isn't going to stop them voting GOP.
There are lots of Trumpton Butts that you need to factor in. Look at this forum for evidence:
Ave It Mortimer HYUFD Mr Ed William Glenn (?) Andy JS
All play up their dislike for Trump (but), would still vote for him...
I wouldn't actually, the last Republican candidate I would have voted for president is George W Bush in 2000, though had the Democrats nominated Sanders rather than Biden I would have voted for Trump
From what little I understand of the present LD situation (which isn't very much, given that they're obviously getting completely drowned out by crises and are pretty marginal nowadays in any event,) the Moran Plan seems to consist of trying to position themselves somewhere to the Left of Labour.
I don't know anything about what Ed Davey is meant to stand for. The candidate of benign neglect, perhaps? Neither offensive nor inspiring? Perhaps that will work better, but it does rather depend on large numbers of voters being in a "plague on both their houses" mood by 2024, and particularly on Labour being unable or unwilling to crush the Lib Dems. With Davey's background as a Coalition minister, that may be wishful thinking.
The party collapsed to eight seats in 2015, and the old Liberals were down to six for most of the 1950s and in the 1970-74 Parliament. There's no particular reason to suppose that they couldn't fare as badly or worse at the next election.
Apologies to @Black_Rook for snipping some of his content.
As I'm no longer a Party member, I can be a shade more honest and dispassionate than I might have been in the past.
Both Layla Moran and Ed Davey have fought back from political adversity in 2015 and both won back their seats from the Conservatives in 2017 and both increased their majorities in 2019.
If I had a vote, I would vote for Ed Davey. The problem is to what extent and in what way the party wants to continue to carry the Coalition Experience round like an anchor. It's history and by 2024 it will be ancient history.
Davey should be articulating the fiscally sensible policies the Conservatives have abdicated in the name of populism. Indeed, there's a constituency for a pro-business sensible party of the centre and at the same time the Party has, pace Cameron, to stop "banging on about Europe". It's true many of those who are now in the membership ranks joined because of the 2016 Referendum but the ship has sailed and while re-joining might one day be a viable and coherent policy pledge, that day isn't now.
Even if the outcome is sub-optimal, telling people "we told you so" won't be helpful. The LDs have to articulate a positive relationship with Europe and the EU but perhaps re-emphasise their internationalist principles.
For example, there are plenty concerned about climate change and rightly so but the solution isn't draconian top-down eco-authoritarianism but at home and in Europe championing technology and ingenuity and being in the forefront of trying to help those further afield whose desire for prosperity is coming at a terrible price for us all.
It is very frustrating being a liberal and an occasional Liberal Democrat supporter.
If the Lib Dems plump for Moran, they are finished. It’s a simple as that.
Ed Davey might have almost zero media presence, and offers no visual variety to SKS, but if the Lib Dems want ANY seat in the next Parliament, he is the only choice.
The party has a clear target demographic: Waitrose Mums and Dads.
We (for I am one of these creatures) want: - A positive vision for a united country that spans nation, race and class - An economic reason to believe for people under the age of 40 - Recognition that Brexit is over, but the battle to be positive, global, liberal trading power is just beginning - Food standards, national parks, and cycling lanes - Green-led and industrial revolution 4.0 thinking - A focus on education, not wokery, to address social inequality Etc
Right now they could be making noises on food standards, planning rules, youth unemployment, and the decimation of the arts sector etc.
Yes, Ed is dull as dishwater. I wish Daisy Cooper had served enough time to stand, because she fits the bill above perfectly.
Ed should strike a deal with her to be something akin to a co-leader.
Will Trump be contributing to his own campaign funds this time?
Last time he said he would be self-funding, but in the end out of $333m he "donated" only $66m, of which $12m went to his own companies.
He seems to be still in Sheldon Adelson's good books, but I think at this stage in 2016 Adelson was still funding Ted Cruz.
I expect him to turn a considerable profit.
I wonder how the big orange man's wider business empire has been doing during his divisive presidency. I bet all those that licensed the brand rights haven't been thrilled.
Say this is as good as it gets for Biden. He'd still only win about as bigly as Obama's second go.
Que? Obama had a 3.9% lead over Romney. The RCP lead has Biden 10.1 percentage points ahead.
If @HYUFD were here, he would predict a Biden landslide on the basis of current polling. Personally, I think Trump on EV 200-249 with Ladbrokes is the value at 3/1.
On current polling he's below 200 ECVs.
I am expecting a little swingback, but he could well be trounced bigly.
I am expecting a shy Trump vote this time out. College educated suburban whites who voted Trump in 2016 expecting the "solemn gravity of the office" (copyright every fucking American political journalist 2016) to moderate him and are deeply embarrassed that it hasn't. But that isn't going to stop them voting GOP.
There are lots of Trumpton Butts that you need to factor in. Look at this forum for evidence:
Ave It Mortimer HYUFD Mr Ed William Glenn (?) Andy JS
All play up their dislike for Trump (but), would still vote for him...
Say this is as good as it gets for Biden. He'd still only win about as bigly as Obama's second go.
Que? Obama had a 3.9% lead over Romney. The RCP lead has Biden 10.1 percentage points ahead.
If @HYUFD were here, he would predict a Biden landslide on the basis of current polling. Personally, I think Trump on EV 200-249 with Ladbrokes is the value at 3/1.
On current polling he's below 200 ECVs.
I am expecting a little swingback, but he could well be trounced bigly.
I am expecting a shy Trump vote this time out. College educated suburban whites who voted Trump in 2016 expecting the "solemn gravity of the office" (copyright every fucking American political journalist 2016) to moderate him and are deeply embarrassed that it hasn't. But that isn't going to stop them voting GOP.
There are lots of Trumpton Butts that you need to factor in. Look at this forum for evidence:
Ave It Mortimer HYUFD Mr Ed William Glenn (?) Andy JS
All play up their dislike for Trump (but), would still vote for him...
I wouldn't actually, the last Republican candidate I would have voted for president is George W Bush in 2000, though had the Democrats nominated Sanders rather than Biden I would have voted for Trump
Say this is as good as it gets for Biden. He'd still only win about as bigly as Obama's second go.
Que? Obama had a 3.9% lead over Romney. The RCP lead has Biden 10.1 percentage points ahead.
If @HYUFD were here, he would predict a Biden landslide on the basis of current polling. Personally, I think Trump on EV 200-249 with Ladbrokes is the value at 3/1.
I still remain of the view it will be close, as Alistair alludes to there is a shy Trump vote who pretend to pollsters they are undecided or don't know
Nah, bollocks. The feel is very, very different from 2016.
The only way it will be close is if the Dems let the lightning-rod left wingers take over the party completely between now and November or if middle America feels there to be a genuine and major law and order issue. BLM is not turning into that currently, so it would have to be something else.
Nah, bollocks. The feel is very, very different from 2016.
The only way it will be close is if the Dems let the lightning-rod left wingers take over the party completely between now and November or if middle America feels there to be a genuine and major law and order issue. BLM is not turning into that currently, so it would have to be something else.
Do you think a vacancy or two on the supreme court might be that something else?
Say this is as good as it gets for Biden. He'd still only win about as bigly as Obama's second go.
Que? Obama had a 3.9% lead over Romney. The RCP lead has Biden 10.1 percentage points ahead.
If @HYUFD were here, he would predict a Biden landslide on the basis of current polling. Personally, I think Trump on EV 200-249 with Ladbrokes is the value at 3/1.
On current polling he's below 200 ECVs.
I am expecting a little swingback, but he could well be trounced bigly.
I am expecting a shy Trump vote this time out. College educated suburban whites who voted Trump in 2016 expecting the "solemn gravity of the office" (copyright every fucking American political journalist 2016) to moderate him and are deeply embarrassed that it hasn't. But that isn't going to stop them voting GOP.
There are lots of Trumpton Butts that you need to factor in. Look at this forum for evidence:
Ave It Mortimer HYUFD Mr Ed William Glenn (?) Andy JS
All play up their dislike for Trump (but), would still vote for him...
I wouldn't actually, the last Republican candidate I would have voted for president is George W Bush in 2000, though had the Democrats nominated Sanders rather than Biden I would have voted for Trump
So you’d vote for Biden?
Apologies if so.
Yes but as I am not American what I would do is irrelevant
Say this is as good as it gets for Biden. He'd still only win about as bigly as Obama's second go.
Que? Obama had a 3.9% lead over Romney. The RCP lead has Biden 10.1 percentage points ahead.
If @HYUFD were here, he would predict a Biden landslide on the basis of current polling. Personally, I think Trump on EV 200-249 with Ladbrokes is the value at 3/1.
I still remain of the view it will be close, as Alistair alludes to there is a shy Trump vote who pretend to pollsters they are undecided or don't know
There is certainly evidence that recent changes have been Trump -> DK, which would make sense if the voters are shy (it seems to have been what happened in 2016).
Say this is as good as it gets for Biden. He'd still only win about as bigly as Obama's second go.
Que? Obama had a 3.9% lead over Romney. The RCP lead has Biden 10.1 percentage points ahead.
If @HYUFD were here, he would predict a Biden landslide on the basis of current polling. Personally, I think Trump on EV 200-249 with Ladbrokes is the value at 3/1.
On current polling he's below 200 ECVs.
I am expecting a little swingback, but he could well be trounced bigly.
I am expecting a shy Trump vote this time out. College educated suburban whites who voted Trump in 2016 expecting the "solemn gravity of the office" (copyright every fucking American political journalist 2016) to moderate him and are deeply embarrassed that it hasn't. But that isn't going to stop them voting GOP.
There are lots of Trumpton Butts that you need to factor in. Look at this forum for evidence:
Ave It Mortimer HYUFD Mr Ed William Glenn (?) Andy JS
All play up their dislike for Trump (but), would still vote for him...
I wouldn't actually, the last Republican candidate I would have voted for president is George W Bush in 2000, though had the Democrats nominated Sanders rather than Biden I would have voted for Trump
Say this is as good as it gets for Biden. He'd still only win about as bigly as Obama's second go.
Que? Obama had a 3.9% lead over Romney. The RCP lead has Biden 10.1 percentage points ahead.
If @HYUFD were here, he would predict a Biden landslide on the basis of current polling. Personally, I think Trump on EV 200-249 with Ladbrokes is the value at 3/1.
I still remain of the view it will be close, as Alistair alludes to there is a shy Trump vote who pretend to pollsters they are undecided or don't know
Nah, bollocks. The feel is very, very different from 2016.
The only way it will be close is if the Dems let the lightning-rod left wingers take over the party completely between now and November or if middle America feels there to be a genuine and major law and order issue. BLM is not turning into that currently, so it would have to be something else.
We will see, Biden is up 2% on what Hillary got on this poll today, Trump down 2% on his 2016 voteshare, that could easily swing back
@QUincel What do you think the closest state will be ?
Georgia or NC perhaps ?
If I were being mischievous, I'd say Arkansas.
Texas.
I am already counting TX in the Dem column.
I'm on at 2/1.
Just a bit of fun was the original idea, but maybe, just maybe...
The one major reason it may not be is if there are polling station shenanigans - one polling post per 20,000 in Latino areas, and plentiful stations in white rural areas.
Say this is as good as it gets for Biden. He'd still only win about as bigly as Obama's second go.
Que? Obama had a 3.9% lead over Romney. The RCP lead has Biden 10.1 percentage points ahead.
If @HYUFD were here, he would predict a Biden landslide on the basis of current polling. Personally, I think Trump on EV 200-249 with Ladbrokes is the value at 3/1.
On current polling he's below 200 ECVs.
I am expecting a little swingback, but he could well be trounced bigly.
I am expecting a shy Trump vote this time out. College educated suburban whites who voted Trump in 2016 expecting the "solemn gravity of the office" (copyright every fucking American political journalist 2016) to moderate him and are deeply embarrassed that it hasn't. But that isn't going to stop them voting GOP.
There are lots of Trumpton Butts that you need to factor in. Look at this forum for evidence:
Ave It Mortimer HYUFD Mr Ed William Glenn (?) Andy JS
All play up their dislike for Trump (but), would still vote for him...
It is very frustrating being a liberal and an occasional Liberal Democrat supporter.
If the Lib Dems plump for Moran, they are finished. It’s a simple as that.
Ed Davey might have almost zero media presence, and offers no visual variety to SKS, but if the Lib Dems want ANY seat in the next Parliament, he is the only choice.
The party has a clear target demographic: Waitrose Mums and Dads.
We (for I am one of these creatures) want: - A positive vision for a united country that spans nation, race and class - An economic reason to believe for people under the age of 40 - Recognition that Brexit is over, but the battle to be positive, global, liberal trading power is just beginning - Food standards, national parks, and cycling lanes - Green-led and industrial revolution 4.0 thinking - A focus on education, not wokery, to address social inequality Etc
Right now they could be making noises on food standards, planning rules, youth unemployment, and the decimation of the arts sector etc.
Yes, Ed is dull as dishwater. I wish Daisy Cooper had served enough time to stand, because she fits the bill above perfectly.
Ed should strike a deal with her to be something akin to a co-leader.
Say this is as good as it gets for Biden. He'd still only win about as bigly as Obama's second go.
Que? Obama had a 3.9% lead over Romney. The RCP lead has Biden 10.1 percentage points ahead.
If @HYUFD were here, he would predict a Biden landslide on the basis of current polling. Personally, I think Trump on EV 200-249 with Ladbrokes is the value at 3/1.
On current polling he's below 200 ECVs.
I am expecting a little swingback, but he could well be trounced bigly.
I am expecting a shy Trump vote this time out. College educated suburban whites who voted Trump in 2016 expecting the "solemn gravity of the office" (copyright every fucking American political journalist 2016) to moderate him and are deeply embarrassed that it hasn't. But that isn't going to stop them voting GOP.
There are lots of Trumpton Butts that you need to factor in. Look at this forum for evidence:
Ave It Mortimer HYUFD Mr Ed William Glenn (?) Andy JS
All play up their dislike for Trump (but), would still vote for him...
I wouldn't actually, the last Republican candidate I would have voted for president is George W Bush in 2000, though had the Democrats nominated Sanders rather than Biden I would have voted for Trump
So you’d vote for Biden?
Apologies if so.
Yes but as I am not American what I would do is irrelevant
Say this is as good as it gets for Biden. He'd still only win about as bigly as Obama's second go.
Que? Obama had a 3.9% lead over Romney. The RCP lead has Biden 10.1 percentage points ahead.
If @HYUFD were here, he would predict a Biden landslide on the basis of current polling. Personally, I think Trump on EV 200-249 with Ladbrokes is the value at 3/1.
On current polling he's below 200 ECVs.
I am expecting a little swingback, but he could well be trounced bigly.
I am expecting a shy Trump vote this time out. College educated suburban whites who voted Trump in 2016 expecting the "solemn gravity of the office" (copyright every fucking American political journalist 2016) to moderate him and are deeply embarrassed that it hasn't. But that isn't going to stop them voting GOP.
There are lots of Trumpton Butts that you need to factor in. Look at this forum for evidence:
Ave It Mortimer HYUFD Mr Ed William Glenn (?) Andy JS
All play up their dislike for Trump (but), would still vote for him...
Good to be name checked on the site!
#MAGA
Make America America Again
Biden 2020
Good luck with that. Not though I'm pro Trump of course.
Say this is as good as it gets for Biden. He'd still only win about as bigly as Obama's second go.
Que? Obama had a 3.9% lead over Romney. The RCP lead has Biden 10.1 percentage points ahead.
If @HYUFD were here, he would predict a Biden landslide on the basis of current polling. Personally, I think Trump on EV 200-249 with Ladbrokes is the value at 3/1.
On current polling he's below 200 ECVs.
I am expecting a little swingback, but he could well be trounced bigly.
I am expecting a shy Trump vote this time out. College educated suburban whites who voted Trump in 2016 expecting the "solemn gravity of the office" (copyright every fucking American political journalist 2016) to moderate him and are deeply embarrassed that it hasn't. But that isn't going to stop them voting GOP.
There are lots of Trumpton Butts that you need to factor in. Look at this forum for evidence:
Ave It Mortimer HYUFD Mr Ed William Glenn (?) Andy JS
All play up their dislike for Trump (but), would still vote for him...
I think Trump has a good chance of winning, but wouldn't vote for him myself.
I wouldn't actually, the last Republican candidate I would have voted for president is George W Bush in 2000, though had the Democrats nominated Sanders rather than Biden I would have voted for Trump
As I recall, you were awaiting Biden's VP choice before a final commitment.
McGovern got 37.5% in 1972, Goldwater got 38.5% in 1964 and even Mondale got 40.6% in 1984 so even 40% doesn't stop a huge landslide.
All Mondale won were Minnesota and DC and he lost the college 525-13 to Reagan. McGovern won just Massachusetts and DC and lost 521-17. Goldwater won 6 states (AZ plus five in the south) and lost 486-52.
Given how much more polarised the US is now, it's hard to see Trump getting less than 125 EV votes even if he loses the popular vote 60-40.
The thing about populism is it needs popularity - it can't be defeated by subterfuge or legal redress, it can only be defeated and a stake driven through its beating heart by being shown to be unpopular through the ballot box.
The GOP will recover post-Trump and I suspect after a heavy defeat there'll be a quick and largely unseen purge of pro-Trump officials within the Party ad the contest for the 2024 GOP Presidential candidate will be fascinating.
Given this, why is my dad struggling to get a blood test to check up on his diabetes and cholesterol problem? He keeps getting told that the NHS is only taking emergency appointments but there's surely enough capacity now to have appointments back to normal. Honestly if my dad has a stroke I'd be tempted to sue the NHS for dereliction of duty at this point.
Sorry to hear this Max.
There’s a national scandal brewing on NHS displacement.
The simple truth is that low-risk covid patients are - or at least were - being favoured over moderate-risk non-covid patients.
The hysteria over this virus has more casualties than one might assume.
Hope your father gets fixed up soon.
Ahem
"UK hospitals are designed for high throughput and occupancy. Corridors are narrow, lifts are small, offices and examination rooms crowded and most wards are designed with bays of six patients rather than the single rooms common abroad. Waiting rooms are intimate and diagnostic units such as outpatients and emergency departments can not work at full capacity while maintaining a 2 metre distance. Architecturally UK Hospitals are amongst the worst places for social distancing, and are by their very nature full of the highest risk population."
"The combination of a 3-4 month suspension of elective surgery, reduced availability of operating theatre space and reduced throughput on operating lists will greatly lengthen surgical and diagnostics waiting lists. I suspect this productivity will drop by 50% or more for the duration of the coronavirus, so likely to be for 12-24 months."
Its a bloody nightmare and capacity in my clinics is about 30% of pre-covid levels, for patients just like your dad.
Sorry to hear the news.
Shouldn't a simple A1c or Cholesterol blood test be a matter for the GP? Or is that where the brick wall is?
(Or for his own peace of mind an A1cNow home test is available for that one - not expensive and OK quality wise; when I have done those they are pretty close to the Dr ones. Subject to contradiction by @Foxy ).
Thanks; I've been looking for a home diabetes test. It's on the cards I'll get it but I can't be bothering the doctor every few months on the offchance.
Say this is as good as it gets for Biden. He'd still only win about as bigly as Obama's second go.
Que? Obama had a 3.9% lead over Romney. The RCP lead has Biden 10.1 percentage points ahead.
If @HYUFD were here, he would predict a Biden landslide on the basis of current polling. Personally, I think Trump on EV 200-249 with Ladbrokes is the value at 3/1.
On current polling he's below 200 ECVs.
I am expecting a little swingback, but he could well be trounced bigly.
I am expecting a shy Trump vote this time out. College educated suburban whites who voted Trump in 2016 expecting the "solemn gravity of the office" (copyright every fucking American political journalist 2016) to moderate him and are deeply embarrassed that it hasn't. But that isn't going to stop them voting GOP.
There are lots of Trumpton Butts that you need to factor in. Look at this forum for evidence:
Ave It Mortimer HYUFD Mr Ed William Glenn (?) Andy JS
All play up their dislike for Trump (but), would still vote for him...
Good to be name checked on the site!
#MAGA
Make America America Again
Biden 2020
Good luck with that. Not though I'm pro Trump of course.
It is very frustrating being a liberal and an occasional Liberal Democrat supporter.
If the Lib Dems plump for Moran, they are finished. It’s a simple as that.
Ed Davey might have almost zero media presence, and offers no visual variety to SKS, but if the Lib Dems want ANY seat in the next Parliament, he is the only choice.
The party has a clear target demographic: Waitrose Mums and Dads.
We (for I am one of these creatures) want: - A positive vision for a united country that spans nation, race and class - An economic reason to believe for people under the age of 40 - Recognition that Brexit is over, but the battle to be positive, global, liberal trading power is just beginning - Food standards, national parks, and cycling lanes - Green-led and industrial revolution 4.0 thinking - A focus on education, not wokery, to address social inequality Etc
Right now they could be making noises on food standards, planning rules, youth unemployment, and the decimation of the arts sector etc.
Yes, Ed is dull as dishwater. I wish Daisy Cooper had served enough time to stand, because she fits the bill above perfectly.
Ed should strike a deal with her to be something akin to a co-leader.
I've not had chance to look at it in any detail, but one Mike Smithson is mentioned as a author in the final section on poll prospects.
Doesn’t work on mobile. Again, Lib Dems should be the most tech savvy. There is a natural affinity with the tech industry who tend to be liberal in their thinking (though not of the bleeding heart fashion)
Say this is as good as it gets for Biden. He'd still only win about as bigly as Obama's second go.
Que? Obama had a 3.9% lead over Romney. The RCP lead has Biden 10.1 percentage points ahead.
If @HYUFD were here, he would predict a Biden landslide on the basis of current polling. Personally, I think Trump on EV 200-249 with Ladbrokes is the value at 3/1.
On current polling he's below 200 ECVs.
I am expecting a little swingback, but he could well be trounced bigly.
I am expecting a shy Trump vote this time out. College educated suburban whites who voted Trump in 2016 expecting the "solemn gravity of the office" (copyright every fucking American political journalist 2016) to moderate him and are deeply embarrassed that it hasn't. But that isn't going to stop them voting GOP.
There are lots of Trumpton Butts that you need to factor in. Look at this forum for evidence:
Ave It Mortimer HYUFD Mr Ed William Glenn (?) Andy JS
All play up their dislike for Trump (but), would still vote for him...
I think Trump has a good chance of winning, but wouldn't vote for him myself.
There is a funny drama series called Flack, with Anna Paquin, on UKTV - It is froth but very good script, often breathtakingly amoral, but all too believable. Anyway, one of the funniest episodes features a footballer who decides to come out as gay for publicity (and another who is actually gay but 'stays in'). Highly recommended.
Another one where the Lib Dems should be screaming blue murder.
Interestingly Lib Dem voters don't appear to be much more hostile to that proposal than other voters. Labour and Remain voters are more opposed to it than Lib Dem voters.
Will Trump be contributing to his own campaign funds this time?
Last time he said he would be self-funding, but in the end out of $333m he "donated" only $66m, of which $12m went to his own companies.
He seems to be still in Sheldon Adelson's good books, but I think at this stage in 2016 Adelson was still funding Ted Cruz.
I expect him to turn a considerable profit.
I wonder how the big orange man's wider business empire has been doing during his divisive presidency. I bet all those that licensed the brand rights haven't been thrilled.
He has been coining it. The Secret service have had to rent out an entire floor of Trump towers that they pay commercial rate for etc.
Never mind the Mar a Largo cash for access scheme.
Will Trump be contributing to his own campaign funds this time?
Last time he said he would be self-funding, but in the end out of $333m he "donated" only $66m, of which $12m went to his own companies.
He seems to be still in Sheldon Adelson's good books, but I think at this stage in 2016 Adelson was still funding Ted Cruz.
I expect him to turn a considerable profit.
I wonder how the big orange man's wider business empire has been doing during his divisive presidency. I bet all those that licensed the brand rights haven't been thrilled.
He has been coining it. The Secret service have had to rent out an entire floor of Trump towers that they pay commercial rate for etc.
Never mind the Mar a Largo cash for access scheme.
It is a pointless comparison, the Republican party now are essentially the equivalent of the Brexit Party or UKIP here under Trump, Starmer would not win a US election but Trump would not win a UK election either.
The only Labour leader who would have won in America is Blair
It is a pointless comparison, the Republican party now are essentially the equivalent of the Brexit Party or UKIP here under Trump, Starmer would not win a US election but Trump would not win a UK election either.
The only Labour leader who would have won in America is Blair
Say this is as good as it gets for Biden. He'd still only win about as bigly as Obama's second go.
Que? Obama had a 3.9% lead over Romney. The RCP lead has Biden 10.1 percentage points ahead.
If @HYUFD were here, he would predict a Biden landslide on the basis of current polling. Personally, I think Trump on EV 200-249 with Ladbrokes is the value at 3/1.
On current polling he's below 200 ECVs.
I am expecting a little swingback, but he could well be trounced bigly.
I am expecting a shy Trump vote this time out. College educated suburban whites who voted Trump in 2016 expecting the "solemn gravity of the office" (copyright every fucking American political journalist 2016) to moderate him and are deeply embarrassed that it hasn't. But that isn't going to stop them voting GOP.
There are lots of Trumpton Butts that you need to factor in. Look at this forum for evidence:
Ave It Mortimer HYUFD Mr Ed William Glenn (?) Andy JS
All play up their dislike for Trump (but), would still vote for him...
I wouldn't actually, the last Republican candidate I would have voted for president is George W Bush in 2000, though had the Democrats nominated Sanders rather than Biden I would have voted for Trump
Say this is as good as it gets for Biden. He'd still only win about as bigly as Obama's second go.
Que? Obama had a 3.9% lead over Romney. The RCP lead has Biden 10.1 percentage points ahead.
If @HYUFD were here, he would predict a Biden landslide on the basis of current polling. Personally, I think Trump on EV 200-249 with Ladbrokes is the value at 3/1.
I still remain of the view it will be close, as Alistair alludes to there is a shy Trump vote who pretend to pollsters they are undecided or don't know
Nah, bollocks. The feel is very, very different from 2016.
The only way it will be close is if the Dems let the lightning-rod left wingers take over the party completely between now and November or if middle America feels there to be a genuine and major law and order issue. BLM is not turning into that currently, so it would have to be something else.
In 2016 I laid out in a post the exact way I thought Trump would win if he could win. National polls obscuring that the Dem vote was all in California, impressive almost perfect voter efficiency and a polling miss in the Rust Belt.
In the same post I then dismissed it as too unlikely to happen. Someone else, I forget who, lumped on Trump based on my analysis.
So this time out I'm paying more attention to the story of how Trump wins if he could win.
I start from the position that Trump is fucked. He's doomed. But if he wasn't doomed then how would that come to be. And the first and most crucial step would be shy Trump voters in the polls. And the only demographic who would display that shyness are suburban whites with college degrees. People concerned about civility.
Now, the evidence is that the GOP have seen an exodus of this demo to the Dems but maybe that is only mid-term issue. When it comes to the actual big stick, who has a he power to submit judges, then they will come home for the Presidential.
It is a pointless comparison, the Republican party now are essentially the equivalent of the Brexit Party or UKIP here under Trump, Starmer would not win a US election but Trump would not win a UK election either.
The only Labour leader who would have won in America is Blair
But in a forced choice in the UK?
Who?
Neither, as it would never be a choice here and if it was I would vote third party
Panic over in Hornchurch and Upminster - what used to be the local meat market was to become temporary home to 200 asylum seekers. Frantic Facebook posts and petitions have done the trick, who said community spirit was dead?
It is very frustrating being a liberal and an occasional Liberal Democrat supporter.
If the Lib Dems plump for Moran, they are finished. It’s a simple as that.
Ed Davey might have almost zero media presence, and offers no visual variety to SKS, but if the Lib Dems want ANY seat in the next Parliament, he is the only choice.
The party has a clear target demographic: Waitrose Mums and Dads.
We (for I am one of these creatures) want: - A positive vision for a united country that spans nation, race and class - An economic reason to believe for people under the age of 40 - Recognition that Brexit is over, but the battle to be positive, global, liberal trading power is just beginning - Food standards, national parks, and cycling lanes - Green-led and industrial revolution 4.0 thinking - A focus on education, not wokery, to address social inequality Etc
Right now they could be making noises on food standards, planning rules, youth unemployment, and the decimation of the arts sector etc.
Yes, Ed is dull as dishwater. I wish Daisy Cooper had served enough time to stand, because she fits the bill above perfectly.
Ed should strike a deal with her to be something akin to a co-leader.
Davey is a very good speaker, and knows his onions. An overweight balding fiftysomething southern man isn't exactly eye candy, but he wouldn't have made the mistakes that Jo Swinson did. I voted for him in that one, and will do so again.
I like Layla, and she has a flair for the media, but wasn't impressed by her platform and she is rather a loose cannon.
It is a pointless comparison, the Republican party now are essentially the equivalent of the Brexit Party or UKIP here under Trump, Starmer would not win a US election but Trump would not win a UK election either.
The only Labour leader who would have won in America is Blair
But in a forced choice in the UK?
Who?
Neither, as it would never be a choice here and if it was I would vote third party
It is a pointless comparison, the Republican party now are essentially the equivalent of the Brexit Party or UKIP here under Trump, Starmer would not win a US election but Trump would not win a UK election either.
The only Labour leader who would have won in America is Blair
But in a forced choice in the UK?
Who?
Neither, as it would never be a choice here and if it was I would vote third party
Do you mean Layla?
HYUFD = Layla?
I would vote for Ed Davey or Nick Clegg over Starmer or Trump certainly
Unlikely we will hear much about this. I wonder why?
R spiking upwards somewhere or other will be headline news once a week for the next 3 months. Each time, no-one (apart from a few mathematicians and the very disciplined) will remember that it is expected to spike upwards and downwards with increasing volatility as the cases drop to low numbers.
It'd be a bit rough if Jenrick was sacked given just how high that bar has been raised for others. And yes I do think ministerial standards should apply to Cummings, he has just as much influence if not more on Gov't policy.
Is this the article where she said she didn't even realise the characters were black because they seemed like normal human beings?
It's out of tune with the demographic of East London in its most famous show. Why are over three quarters of EastEnders cast white Brits when they are a significant minority in the area?
Given this, why is my dad struggling to get a blood test to check up on his diabetes and cholesterol problem? He keeps getting told that the NHS is only taking emergency appointments but there's surely enough capacity now to have appointments back to normal. Honestly if my dad has a stroke I'd be tempted to sue the NHS for dereliction of duty at this point.
Sorry to hear this Max.
There’s a national scandal brewing on NHS displacement.
The simple truth is that low-risk covid patients are - or at least were - being favoured over moderate-risk non-covid patients.
The hysteria over this virus has more casualties than one might assume.
Hope your father gets fixed up soon.
Ahem
"UK hospitals are designed for high throughput and occupancy. Corridors are narrow, lifts are small, offices and examination rooms crowded and most wards are designed with bays of six patients rather than the single rooms common abroad. Waiting rooms are intimate and diagnostic units such as outpatients and emergency departments can not work at full capacity while maintaining a 2 metre distance. Architecturally UK Hospitals are amongst the worst places for social distancing, and are by their very nature full of the highest risk population."
"The combination of a 3-4 month suspension of elective surgery, reduced availability of operating theatre space and reduced throughput on operating lists will greatly lengthen surgical and diagnostics waiting lists. I suspect this productivity will drop by 50% or more for the duration of the coronavirus, so likely to be for 12-24 months."
Its a bloody nightmare and capacity in my clinics is about 30% of pre-covid levels, for patients just like your dad.
Sorry to hear the news.
Shouldn't a simple A1c or Cholesterol blood test be a matter for the GP? Or is that where the brick wall is?
(Or for his own peace of mind an A1cNow home test is available for that one - not expensive and OK quality wise; when I have done those they are pretty close to the Dr ones. Subject to contradiction by @Foxy ).
Thanks; I've been looking for a home diabetes test. It's on the cards I'll get it but I can't be bothering the doctor every few months on the offchance.
I knew that two were gay, I didn't know the third was gay. It's gone out of thew news very quickly.
The murderer was arrested on site, so almost immediately it became sub judice, meaning the papers cannot say much about it. They cannot, for instance, speculate on whether he deliberately attacked gay men or it was just coincidence.
This doesn't seem to have stopped anyone from speculating about what the security services knew about the attacker, or the state of his mental health.
From Wilson up to to 1988, it was normal for presidents to win with more than 80% of the electoral votes, and Bush nearly managed it. Then Clinton won with 43% of the popular vote, and since him it has been normal to win about 60% or fewer.
Oddly, before Wilson and after Reconstruction, you had a period with a great many very close wins, but only one Democrat won at all. So that is two long eras since the Civil War, one of swinging super-majorities and one of a small, structural Republican edge, and we are in the third one which you would have to say is characterised by culture wars.
I knew that two were gay, I didn't know the third was gay. It's gone out of thew news very quickly.
The murderer was arrested on site, so almost immediately it became sub judice, meaning the papers cannot say much about it. They cannot, for instance, speculate on whether he deliberately attacked gay men or it was just coincidence.
It's a curiosity that if the attacker had been killed in executing the murder, as terrorists frequently are the matter would be far more open for discussion.
A lot of laughter from abroad at how incompetent the British are... but hasn’t that always been the case? I’ve a sneaking suspicion that if this is only phase 1 we may end up coming out of it better than they might think.
It’s not exactly something to be proud of, but we usually get it right eventually. And we don’t have a history of setting the bar high early doors. World War 1. World war 2. 1981 Ashes. 2019 cricket World Cup.
I knew that two were gay, I didn't know the third was gay. It's gone out of thew news very quickly.
The murderer was arrested on site, so almost immediately it became sub judice, meaning the papers cannot say much about it. They cannot, for instance, speculate on whether he deliberately attacked gay men or it was just coincidence.
It's a curiosity that if the attacker had been killed in executing the murder, as terrorists frequently are the matter would be far more open for discussion.
Had Thomas Mair been killed on the spot, the following days would have been a complete free-for-all.
Say this is as good as it gets for Biden. He'd still only win about as bigly as Obama's second go.
Que? Obama had a 3.9% lead over Romney. The RCP lead has Biden 10.1 percentage points ahead.
If @HYUFD were here, he would predict a Biden landslide on the basis of current polling. Personally, I think Trump on EV 200-249 with Ladbrokes is the value at 3/1.
On current polling he's below 200 ECVs.
I am expecting a little swingback, but he could well be trounced bigly.
I am expecting a shy Trump vote this time out. College educated suburban whites who voted Trump in 2016 expecting the "solemn gravity of the office" (copyright every fucking American political journalist 2016) to moderate him and are deeply embarrassed that it hasn't. But that isn't going to stop them voting GOP.
There are lots of Trumpton Butts that you need to factor in. Look at this forum for evidence:
Ave It Mortimer HYUFD Mr Ed William Glenn (?) Andy JS
All play up their dislike for Trump (but), would still vote for him...
I think Trump has a good chance of winning, but wouldn't vote for him myself.
So you would vote Biden?
Apologies if so.
I probably would, knowing it wouldn't make much difference to Trump winning again, which is going to be inevitable if statues of Washington and Jefferson continue to be toppled.
"No distance, too little hygiene: The working conditions of Romanian auxiliary workers in German meat factories are disastrous. Those who can afford it flee back home.
Alberto Gogu was the first to go to the hardware store after returning to Romania. He is now renovating his house from the money he has earned in Germany. He worked in Germany for twelve years.
Now he has enough. "I don't want to go back to Germany anymore," he says. "Not even when it's all over. I've never seen anything like it in 44 years of my life."
Comments
So social distancing celebrations.
Last time he said he would be self-funding, but in the end out of $333m he "donated" only $66m, of which $12m went to his own companies.
He seems to be still in Sheldon Adelson's good books, but I think at this stage in 2016 Adelson was still funding Ted Cruz.
Ave It
Mortimer
HYUFD
Mr Ed
William Glenn (?)
Andy JS
All play up their dislike for Trump (but), would still vote for him...
That said, the Pakistani authorities have a disturbing habit of blaming dead pilots, regardless.
https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0112864/alternateversions
Maybe they'll need to edit out the scene where McClane accused Zeus of being a racist.
https://www.libdemvoice.org/yougov-poll-on-lib-dem-leadership-ed-davey-is-a-country-mile-ahead-with-caveats-galore-63298.html
I am already counting TX in the Dem column.
(Spike Lee, 1989)
Just a bit of fun was the original idea, but maybe, just maybe...
Reaction in Gütersloh highlights the problems governments may face if restrictions return"
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/24/west-germany-district-re-enters-lockdown-after-new-covid-19-outbreak
Apologies if so.
As I'm no longer a Party member, I can be a shade more honest and dispassionate than I might have been in the past.
Both Layla Moran and Ed Davey have fought back from political adversity in 2015 and both won back their seats from the Conservatives in 2017 and both increased their majorities in 2019.
If I had a vote, I would vote for Ed Davey. The problem is to what extent and in what way the party wants to continue to carry the Coalition Experience round like an anchor. It's history and by 2024 it will be ancient history.
Davey should be articulating the fiscally sensible policies the Conservatives have abdicated in the name of populism. Indeed, there's a constituency for a pro-business sensible party of the centre and at the same time the Party has, pace Cameron, to stop "banging on about Europe". It's true many of those who are now in the membership ranks joined because of the 2016 Referendum but the ship has sailed and while re-joining might one day be a viable and coherent policy pledge, that day isn't now.
Even if the outcome is sub-optimal, telling people "we told you so" won't be helpful. The LDs have to articulate a positive relationship with Europe and the EU but perhaps re-emphasise their internationalist principles.
For example, there are plenty concerned about climate change and rightly so but the solution isn't draconian top-down eco-authoritarianism but at home and in Europe championing technology and ingenuity and being in the forefront of trying to help those further afield whose desire for prosperity is coming at a terrible price for us all.
If the Lib Dems plump for Moran, they are finished. It’s a simple as that.
Ed Davey might have almost zero media presence, and offers no visual variety to SKS, but if the Lib Dems want ANY seat in the next Parliament, he is the only choice.
The party has a clear target demographic: Waitrose Mums and Dads.
We (for I am one of these creatures) want:
- A positive vision for a united country that spans nation, race and class
- An economic reason to believe for people under the age of 40
- Recognition that Brexit is over, but the battle to be positive, global, liberal trading power is just beginning
- Food standards, national parks, and cycling lanes
- Green-led and industrial revolution 4.0 thinking
- A focus on education, not wokery, to address social inequality
Etc
Right now they could be making noises on food standards, planning rules, youth unemployment, and the decimation of the arts sector etc.
Yes, Ed is dull as dishwater. I wish Daisy Cooper had served enough time to stand, because she fits the bill above perfectly.
Ed should strike a deal with her to be something akin to a co-leader.
#MAGA
The only way it will be close is if the Dems let the lightning-rod left wingers take over the party completely between now and November or if middle America feels there to be a genuine and major law and order issue. BLM is not turning into that currently, so it would have to be something else.
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1275782890958270464?s=20
Biden 2020
http://www.laylamoran.com/build_back_better
I've not had chance to look at it in any detail, but one Mike Smithson is mentioned as a author in the final section on poll prospects.
Apologies.
McGovern got 37.5% in 1972, Goldwater got 38.5% in 1964 and even Mondale got 40.6% in 1984 so even 40% doesn't stop a huge landslide.
All Mondale won were Minnesota and DC and he lost the college 525-13 to Reagan. McGovern won just Massachusetts and DC and lost 521-17. Goldwater won 6 states (AZ plus five in the south) and lost 486-52.
Given how much more polarised the US is now, it's hard to see Trump getting less than 125 EV votes even if he loses the popular vote 60-40.
The thing about populism is it needs popularity - it can't be defeated by subterfuge or legal redress, it can only be defeated and a stake driven through its beating heart by being shown to be unpopular through the ballot box.
The GOP will recover post-Trump and I suspect after a heavy defeat there'll be a quick and largely unseen purge of pro-Trump officials within the Party ad the contest for the 2024 GOP Presidential candidate will be fascinating.
Again, Lib Dems should be the most tech savvy. There is a natural affinity with the tech industry who tend to be liberal in their thinking (though not of the bleeding heart fashion)
Apologies if so.
Trump or Starmer?
https://fullfact.org/health/coronavirus-track-and-trace-app-boris-johnson/
The Americans aren’t electing a star council of 538 delegates, but a single president for a single territory.
They should adopt the French system, or similar.
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1275871808261107712?s=20
Never mind the Mar a Largo cash for access scheme.
I'm now off to read Tom LoBianco's biography of Mike Pence, Piety and Power: Mike Pence and the Taking of the White House.
The only Labour leader who would have won in America is Blair
I wonder why?
Who?
In the same post I then dismissed it as too unlikely to happen. Someone else, I forget who, lumped on Trump based on my analysis.
So this time out I'm paying more attention to the story of how Trump wins if he could win.
I start from the position that Trump is fucked. He's doomed. But if he wasn't doomed then how would that come to be. And the first and most crucial step would be shy Trump voters in the polls. And the only demographic who would display that shyness are suburban whites with college degrees. People concerned about civility.
Now, the evidence is that the GOP have seen an exodus of this demo to the Dems but maybe that is only mid-term issue. When it comes to the actual big stick, who has a he power to submit judges, then they will come home for the Presidential.
If Trump is going to win that is.
https://twitter.com/Gabriel_Pogrund/status/1275861703603953666
https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1275867227926016001
It's Cummings all over again.
Never apologise. Never explain. Fuck the plebs...
I like Layla, and she has a flair for the media, but wasn't impressed by her platform and she is rather a loose cannon.
HYUFD = Layla?
And yes I do think ministerial standards should apply to Cummings, he has just as much influence if not more on Gov't policy.
https://aboutasfarasdelgados.blogspot.com/2014/11/
Gets a good write up. 4 tests for £99.
There was a Tory councillor in Tower Hamlets?!
Oddly, before Wilson and after Reconstruction, you had a period with a great many very close wins, but only one Democrat won at all. So that is two long eras since the Civil War, one of swinging super-majorities and one of a small, structural Republican edge, and we are in the third one which you would have to say is characterised by culture wars.
It’s not exactly something to be proud of, but we usually get it right eventually. And we don’t have a history of setting the bar high early doors. World War 1. World war 2. 1981 Ashes. 2019 cricket World Cup.
Alberto Gogu was the first to go to the hardware store after returning to Romania. He is now renovating his house from the money he has earned in Germany. He worked in Germany for twelve years.
Now he has enough. "I don't want to go back to Germany anymore," he says. "Not even when it's all over. I've never seen anything like it in 44 years of my life."
https://www.zdf.de/nachrichten/wirtschaft/corona-leid-fleischfabrik-rumaenen-ajo-100.html