From Wilson up to to 1988, it was normal for presidents to win with more than 80% of the electoral votes, and Bush nearly managed it. Then Clinton won with 43% of the popular vote, and since him it has been normal to win about 60% or fewer.
Oddly, before Wilson and after Reconstruction, you had a period with a great many very close wins, but only one Democrat won at all. So that is two long eras since the Civil War, one of swinging super-majorities and one of a small, structural Republican edge, and we are in the third one which you would have to say is characterised by culture wars.
A lot of laughter from abroad at how incompetent the British are... but hasn’t that always been the case? I’ve a sneaking suspicion that if this is only phase 1 we may end up coming out of it better than they might think.
It’s not exactly something to be proud of, but we usually get it right eventually. And we don’t have a history of setting the bar high early doors. World War 1. World war 2. 1981 Ashes. 2019 cricket World Cup.
The Government hasn't exactly covered itself in glory thus far, but you're right to point out that it's a very long road. Who knows what the verdict will be some years down the line, when the whole thing has played out and the full health and socio-economic consequences for all the countries of the world start to become somewhat clearer?
Besides anything else, we don't know the outcome of the Oxford and Imperial vaccine projects yet. If one of them hits the jackpot before anybody else, it's Nobel Prizes all round and Britain saves the world. On the other hand, the pessimists might be right, there'll be a second major outbreak in Winter that we stuff up, and we're back in some kind of lockdown again just in time for Christmas. Only time will tell.
The last Democrat to defeat an incumbent President was Bill Clinton. The last Republican to defeat an incumbent President was Ronald Reagan.
Before that, you had Carter beating Ford in 1976 but Ford hadn't been on the Presidential or VP ballot in 1972 so I'm letting that one go.
You have to go back to 1932 and FDR's defeat of Herbert Hoover which ended 12 years of Republican control. FDR won 57-40 and in EV terms by 472-59. Hoover won Pennsylvania but that's about it.
If Biden were to defeat Trump substantially it would be akin to Reagan's win over Carter in 1980 (51-41) or FDR's over Hoover - that significant.
Reagan's win put the Republicans in the White House for 12 years - FDR's win kept the Republicans out for 20 years.
The GOP will recover post-Trump and I suspect after a heavy defeat there'll be a quick and largely unseen purge of pro-Trump officials within the Party ad the contest for the 2024 GOP Presidential candidate will be fascinating.
The big change was Citizens United. Since then the GOP committees have become smaller spenders than the collective cash of billionaire and multi-millionaire donors. Also since Citizens United, the GOP presidential candidates have been in the billionaire class, even if Romney is only worth a few hundred million, and also spent tens of millions of their own money. Among the close losers in the primaries, most had a billionaire patron like Adelson or Friess. So these are pointers.
Off topic but I've finally got all my provisional results back and it looks like I'm going to finish on 72% overall, which is a distinction/1st class. I'm thrilled!
Off topic but I've finally got all my provisional results back and it looks like I'm going to finish on 72% overall, which is a distinction/1st class. I'm thrilled!
Congratulations. Did the pb tip of snails in ginger beer bottles come up?
Off topic but I've finally got all my provisional results back and it looks like I'm going to finish on 72% overall, which is a distinction/1st class. I'm thrilled!
The 2019 world cup victory was a British endeavour.
We were captained by an Irishman.
Prior to 1992 Scotland were under the auspices of the TCCB, so the 1981 Ashes was a British endeavour.
The Scottish team didn't become independent until 1994.
Gavin Hamilton played at Johannesburg in 1999 (he got a pair and took 0-63) - have there been any more England test cricketers since who were born in Scotland?
Say this is as good as it gets for Biden. He'd still only win about as bigly as Obama's second go.
Que? Obama had a 3.9% lead over Romney. The RCP lead has Biden 10.1 percentage points ahead.
If @HYUFD were here, he would predict a Biden landslide on the basis of current polling. Personally, I think Trump on EV 200-249 with Ladbrokes is the value at 3/1.
On current polling he's below 200 ECVs.
I am expecting a little swingback, but he could well be trounced bigly.
I am expecting a shy Trump vote this time out. College educated suburban whites who voted Trump in 2016 expecting the "solemn gravity of the office" (copyright every fucking American political journalist 2016) to moderate him and are deeply embarrassed that it hasn't. But that isn't going to stop them voting GOP.
There are lots of Trumpton Butts that you need to factor in. Look at this forum for evidence:
Ave It Mortimer HYUFD Mr Ed William Glenn (?) Andy JS
All play up their dislike for Trump (but), would still vote for him...
I wouldn't actually, the last Republican candidate I would have voted for president is George W Bush in 2000, though had the Democrats nominated Sanders rather than Biden I would have voted for Trump
Say this is as good as it gets for Biden. He'd still only win about as bigly as Obama's second go.
Que? Obama had a 3.9% lead over Romney. The RCP lead has Biden 10.1 percentage points ahead.
If @HYUFD were here, he would predict a Biden landslide on the basis of current polling. Personally, I think Trump on EV 200-249 with Ladbrokes is the value at 3/1.
I still remain of the view it will be close, as Alistair alludes to there is a shy Trump vote who pretend to pollsters they are undecided or don't know
Nah, bollocks. The feel is very, very different from 2016.
The only way it will be close is if the Dems let the lightning-rod left wingers take over the party completely between now and November or if middle America feels there to be a genuine and major law and order issue. BLM is not turning into that currently, so it would have to be something else.
In 2016 I laid out in a post the exact way I thought Trump would win if he could win. National polls obscuring that the Dem vote was all in California, impressive almost perfect voter efficiency and a polling miss in the Rust Belt.
In the same post I then dismissed it as too unlikely to happen. Someone else, I forget who, lumped on Trump based on my analysis.
So this time out I'm paying more attention to the story of how Trump wins if he could win.
I start from the position that Trump is fucked. He's doomed. But if he wasn't doomed then how would that come to be. And the first and most crucial step would be shy Trump voters in the polls. And the only demographic who would display that shyness are suburban whites with college degrees. People concerned about civility.
Now, the evidence is that the GOP have seen an exodus of this demo to the Dems but maybe that is only mid-term issue. When it comes to the actual big stick, who has a he power to submit judges, then they will come home for the Presidential.
If Trump is going to win that is.
What is happening in the few special Congressional races backs up the thesis about shy white suburban college voters. The special race for NY-27 has just been won by the Republicans with 69% share of the vote. In 2018, Chris Collins got 49%. Yes, he was under indictment but the result today also saw the Republicans beat the 67% Collins got in 2016. Whatever people say about low turnout etc, there is no evidence from actual races in 2020 that suburban Republicans are deserting Trump and some evidence (CA-45) they may be more committed.
Off topic but I've finally got all my provisional results back and it looks like I'm going to finish on 72% overall, which is a distinction/1st class. I'm thrilled!
Congratulations.
PB, in fact the world, needs more lawyers.
Well done Gallowgate. That is a great achievement,
CNN: New York, New Jersey and Connecticut issued a travel advisory that requires people arriving from states with high coronavirus rates to quarantine for 14 days.
New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo, New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy and Connecticut Gov. Ned Lamont said the travel advisory applies to anyone coming from a state with a positive test rate higher than 10 per 100,000 residents over a 7-day rolling average or a state with a 10% or higher positivity rate over a 7-day rolling average.
"We have to make sure the virus doesn't come in on a plane," Cuomo said. "We worked very hard to get the viral transmission rate down, and we don't want to see it go up," he added.
As of Wednesday, the advisory applies to Alabama, Arkansas, Arizona, Florida, North Carolina, South Carolina, Washington, Utah and Texas. It begins tonight at midnight.
The GOP will recover post-Trump and I suspect after a heavy defeat there'll be a quick and largely unseen purge of pro-Trump officials within the Party ad the contest for the 2024 GOP Presidential candidate will be fascinating.
The big change was Citizens United. Since then the GOP committees have become smaller spenders than the collective cash of billionaire and multi-millionaire donors. Also since Citizens United, the GOP presidential candidates have been in the billionaire class, even if Romney is only worth a few hundred million, and also spent tens of millions of their own money. Among the close losers in the primaries, most had a billionaire patron like Adelson or Friess. So these are pointers.
Trump is the only billionaire the Republicans have nominated, Kerry was also worth hundreds of millions like Romney (and Gore is now in that league too) and JFK's father was a billionaire in today's terms
TH includes the squillionaires of Docklands. There were quite a lot of Conservative councillors in Tower Hamlets for a while.
There were 8 in 2010 but the boundaries were changed and the number of councillors reduced to 45 in 2013. In 2014, the Conservatives win 5 but in 2018 lost three of those including the seat held by the Conservative candidate for East Ham in the 2017 GE.
The two survivors were veteran Peter Golds in Island Gardens and Andrew Wood in Canary Wharf.
The current composition is now Labour 42, Conservative 1, LD 1, Independent 1.
Off topic but I've finally got all my provisional results back and it looks like I'm going to finish on 72% overall, which is a distinction/1st class. I'm thrilled!
Congratulations and enjoy your legal career, you should get into a good firm or chambers with those results
The 2019 world cup victory was a British endeavour.
We were captained by an Irishman.
Prior to 1992 Scotland were under the auspices of the TCCB, so the 1981 Ashes was a British endeavour.
The Scottish team didn't become independent until 1994.
Gavin Hamilton played at Johannesburg in 1999 (he got a pair and took 0-63) - have there been any more England test cricketers since who were born in Scotland?
Nope, 1999 did see two Scottish born cricketers play test cricket for England.
TH includes the squillionaires of Docklands. There were quite a lot of Conservative councillors in Tower Hamlets for a while.
There were 8 in 2010 but the boundaries were changed and the number of councillors reduced to 45 in 2013. In 2014, the Conservatives win 5 but in 2018 lost three of those including the seat held by the Conservative candidate for East Ham in the 2017 GE.
The two survivors were veteran Peter Golds in Island Gardens and Andrew Wood in Canary Wharf.
The current composition is now Labour 42, Conservative 1, LD 1, Independent 1.
Andrew Woods sits as an Independent Conservative for Canary Wharf
The GOP will recover post-Trump and I suspect after a heavy defeat there'll be a quick and largely unseen purge of pro-Trump officials within the Party ad the contest for the 2024 GOP Presidential candidate will be fascinating.
The big change was Citizens United. Since then the GOP committees have become smaller spenders than the collective cash of billionaire and multi-millionaire donors. Also since Citizens United, the GOP presidential candidates have been in the billionaire class, even if Romney is only worth a few hundred million, and also spent tens of millions of their own money. Among the close losers in the primaries, most had a billionaire patron like Adelson or Friess. So these are pointers.
Trump is the only billionaire the Republicans have nominated Kerry was also worth hundreds of millions like Romney (and Gore is now in that league too) and JFK's father was a billionaire in today's terms
It's not an attempt to make a partisan point, but rather guidance for anyone interested in the future of the GOP presidential primaries (e.g. for betting), that billionaire patronage is the price of admission.
Say this is as good as it gets for Biden. He'd still only win about as bigly as Obama's second go.
Que? Obama had a 3.9% lead over Romney. The RCP lead has Biden 10.1 percentage points ahead.
If @HYUFD were here, he would predict a Biden landslide on the basis of current polling. Personally, I think Trump on EV 200-249 with Ladbrokes is the value at 3/1.
On current polling he's below 200 ECVs.
I am expecting a little swingback, but he could well be trounced bigly.
I am expecting a shy Trump vote this time out. College educated suburban whites who voted Trump in 2016 expecting the "solemn gravity of the office" (copyright every fucking American political journalist 2016) to moderate him and are deeply embarrassed that it hasn't. But that isn't going to stop them voting GOP.
There are lots of Trumpton Butts that you need to factor in. Look at this forum for evidence:
Ave It Mortimer HYUFD Mr Ed William Glenn (?) Andy JS
All play up their dislike for Trump (but), would still vote for him...
I think Trump has a good chance of winning, but wouldn't vote for him myself.
So you would vote Biden?
Apologies if so.
I probably would, knowing it wouldn't make much difference to Trump winning again, which is going to be inevitable if statues of Washington and Jefferson continue to be toppled.
CNN: New York, New Jersey and Connecticut issued a travel advisory that requires people arriving from states with high coronavirus rates to quarantine for 14 days.
New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo, New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy and Connecticut Gov. Ned Lamont said the travel advisory applies to anyone coming from a state with a positive test rate higher than 10 per 100,000 residents over a 7-day rolling average or a state with a 10% or higher positivity rate over a 7-day rolling average.
"We have to make sure the virus doesn't come in on a plane," Cuomo said. "We worked very hard to get the viral transmission rate down, and we don't want to see it go up," he added.
As of Wednesday, the advisory applies to Alabama, Arkansas, Arizona, Florida, North Carolina, South Carolina, Washington, Utah and Texas. It begins tonight at midnight.
How does that tally with the equal protections clause?
Given this, why is my dad struggling to get a blood test to check up on his diabetes and cholesterol problem? He keeps getting told that the NHS is only taking emergency appointments but there's surely enough capacity now to have appointments back to normal. Honestly if my dad has a stroke I'd be tempted to sue the NHS for dereliction of duty at this point.
Sorry to hear this Max.
There’s a national scandal brewing on NHS displacement.
The simple truth is that low-risk covid patients are - or at least were - being favoured over moderate-risk non-covid patients.
The hysteria over this virus has more casualties than one might assume.
Hope your father gets fixed up soon.
Ahem
"UK hospitals are designed for high throughput and occupancy. Corridors are narrow, lifts are small, offices and examination rooms crowded and most wards are designed with bays of six patients rather than the single rooms common abroad. Waiting rooms are intimate and diagnostic units such as outpatients and emergency departments can not work at full capacity while maintaining a 2 metre distance. Architecturally UK Hospitals are amongst the worst places for social distancing, and are by their very nature full of the highest risk population."
"The combination of a 3-4 month suspension of elective surgery, reduced availability of operating theatre space and reduced throughput on operating lists will greatly lengthen surgical and diagnostics waiting lists. I suspect this productivity will drop by 50% or more for the duration of the coronavirus, so likely to be for 12-24 months."
Its a bloody nightmare and capacity in my clinics is about 30% of pre-covid levels, for patients just like your dad.
Sorry to hear the news.
Shouldn't a simple A1c or Cholesterol blood test be a matter for the GP? Or is that where the brick wall is?
(Or for his own peace of mind an A1cNow home test is available for that one - not expensive and OK quality wise; when I have done those they are pretty close to the Dr ones. Subject to contradiction by @Foxy ).
Thanks; I've been looking for a home diabetes test. It's on the cards I'll get it but I can't be bothering the doctor every few months on the offchance.
TH includes the squillionaires of Docklands. There were quite a lot of Conservative councillors in Tower Hamlets for a while.
There were 8 in 2010 but the boundaries were changed and the number of councillors reduced to 45 in 2013. In 2014, the Conservatives win 5 but in 2018 lost three of those including the seat held by the Conservative candidate for East Ham in the 2017 GE.
The two survivors were veteran Peter Golds in Island Gardens and Andrew Wood in Canary Wharf.
The current composition is now Labour 42, Conservative 1, LD 1, Independent 1.
Yup. And the syphoning off of left-leaning votes by Respect/TH First/Whatever else they became I rather lost track made it easier for the Conservatives for quite a while.
But frankly, areas like TH should have a solid opposition block of Conservative councillors. The fact that they increasingly don't ought to give some on the right pause for thought, but I bet it doesn't.
The GOP will recover post-Trump and I suspect after a heavy defeat there'll be a quick and largely unseen purge of pro-Trump officials within the Party ad the contest for the 2024 GOP Presidential candidate will be fascinating.
The big change was Citizens United. Since then the GOP committees have become smaller spenders than the collective cash of billionaire and multi-millionaire donors. Also since Citizens United, the GOP presidential candidates have been in the billionaire class, even if Romney is only worth a few hundred million, and also spent tens of millions of their own money. Among the close losers in the primaries, most had a billionaire patron like Adelson or Friess. So these are pointers.
Trump is the only billionaire the Republicans have nominated Kerry was also worth hundreds of millions like Romney (and Gore is now in that league too) and JFK's father was a billionaire in today's terms
It's not an attempt to make a partisan point, but rather guidance for anyone interested in the future of the GOP presidential primaries (e.g. for betting), that billionaire patronage is the price of admission.
Not necessarily, billionaire patronage will just go to whoever is nominee. McCain for example had few wealthy backers in 2008 and at one stage his campaign was near bankrupt.
Bloomberg is the richest candidate ever to run for president and ran in the Democratic primaries.
The 2019 world cup victory was a British endeavour.
We were captained by an Irishman.
Prior to 1992 Scotland were under the auspices of the TCCB, so the 1981 Ashes was a British endeavour.
The Scottish team didn't become independent until 1994.
Is Eoin Morgan British?
He's had a British passport since birth.
Yes I just read that on wiki too!
But England winning the World Cup wasn't "a British endeavour" because an Irishman captained the team, because the Irish part of him isn't British. He might as well be Japanese! He is half English, that's why he plays for England
Off topic but I've finally got all my provisional results back and it looks like I'm going to finish on 72% overall, which is a distinction/1st class. I'm thrilled!
Finland is relaxing its travel restrictions to and from other countries: countries with fewer than 8 new infections per 100,000 inhabitants over the past 14 days qualify as destinations or origins for travellers from or to Finland. At the moment 20 countries qualify including Germany, France and Italy, though not the UK which the Finns say has 25.2 new infections per 100,000 people over the past fortnight.
That's an eminently sensible system.
If they did that here the media would be all "people can just travel across the open borders of the EU".
Say this is as good as it gets for Biden. He'd still only win about as bigly as Obama's second go.
Que? Obama had a 3.9% lead over Romney. The RCP lead has Biden 10.1 percentage points ahead.
If @HYUFD were here, he would predict a Biden landslide on the basis of current polling. Personally, I think Trump on EV 200-249 with Ladbrokes is the value at 3/1.
On current polling he's below 200 ECVs.
I am expecting a little swingback, but he could well be trounced bigly.
I am expecting a shy Trump vote this time out. College educated suburban whites who voted Trump in 2016 expecting the "solemn gravity of the office" (copyright every fucking American political journalist 2016) to moderate him and are deeply embarrassed that it hasn't. But that isn't going to stop them voting GOP.
There are lots of Trumpton Butts that you need to factor in. Look at this forum for evidence:
Ave It Mortimer HYUFD Mr Ed William Glenn (?) Andy JS
All play up their dislike for Trump (but), would still vote for him...
So we know whom Comrade Anabobazina will be calling in for questioning if she wins power
I've actually been open about it and I have said it on here. I would vote for Trump over Biden. If it was Trump vs Sanders or Warren, my decision would be closer because I believe that the States is an absolute mess and needs a proper kick up the backside to rectify its problems, but probably Trump over either. With Trump, Sanders or Warren, there is a chance you would have radical reform (and to give Trump credit, he pushed through tax reform that had eluded many others). You would get nothing with Biden.
Biden would be Obama Mark 2 who, to me, was a poor President - let China and Russia run riot, didn't do anything whatsoever to sort out the structural problems in the US or (irony of ironies) did nothing on reducing racial inequality or police brutality when he was in office (Eric Garner anyone?).
As for being a "Trumpton Butt", what I said is that I don't like the man from what I can see of him but dislike of the individual has not stopped me voting before for what I think is the best option to lead. I voted for Cameron in 2010 and 2015, even though I had found him deeply unimpressive when I had interactions with him (and found Osborne obnoxious).
Hope that clears it up
Ps I still very much believe Trump will win in November
The 2019 world cup victory was a British endeavour.
We were captained by an Irishman.
Prior to 1992 Scotland were under the auspices of the TCCB, so the 1981 Ashes was a British endeavour.
The Scottish team didn't become independent until 1994.
Is Eoin Morgan British?
He's had a British passport since birth.
Yes I just read that on wiki too!
But England winning the World Cup wasn't "a British endeavour" because an Irishman captained the team, because the Irish part of him isn't British. He might as well be Japanese! He is half English, that's why he plays for England
Well the team is England & Wales, which makes it British.
If you want to tell the Welsh that they are English then I wish you good luck.
TH includes the squillionaires of Docklands. There were quite a lot of Conservative councillors in Tower Hamlets for a while.
There were 8 in 2010 but the boundaries were changed and the number of councillors reduced to 45 in 2013. In 2014, the Conservatives win 5 but in 2018 lost three of those including the seat held by the Conservative candidate for East Ham in the 2017 GE.
The two survivors were veteran Peter Golds in Island Gardens and Andrew Wood in Canary Wharf.
The current composition is now Labour 42, Conservative 1, LD 1, Independent 1.
Yup. And the syphoning off of left-leaning votes by Respect/TH First/Whatever else they became I rather lost track made it easier for the Conservatives for quite a while.
But frankly, areas like TH should have a solid opposition block of Conservative councillors. The fact that they increasingly don't ought to give some on the right pause for thought, but I bet it doesn't.
Inner London is now overwhelmingly Labour but the Tories now win in areas like Burnley or Bolsover or Grimsby they did not have a prayer even in the Thatcher years
London: the quarter-of-a-million who fled before lockdown are just the start...
Dominic Jackman, the founder of Escape from City, which helps people find work beyond London, said inquiries over the last fortnight revealed “a fundamental change in jobseeker preferences”.
Of 1,000 people signing up to the service, 51% wanted to leave the capital compared with 20% for the same period in 2019.
“Pre-Covid, while our jobseekers wanted to ‘escape the rat race’, a lot of them actually were happy living and working in London,” he said. “For the first time ever we have more people wanting to leave London than stay in it which is a huge shift in aspirations.”
The GOP will recover post-Trump and I suspect after a heavy defeat there'll be a quick and largely unseen purge of pro-Trump officials within the Party ad the contest for the 2024 GOP Presidential candidate will be fascinating.
The big change was Citizens United. Since then the GOP committees have become smaller spenders than the collective cash of billionaire and multi-millionaire donors. Also since Citizens United, the GOP presidential candidates have been in the billionaire class, even if Romney is only worth a few hundred million, and also spent tens of millions of their own money. Among the close losers in the primaries, most had a billionaire patron like Adelson or Friess. So these are pointers.
Trump is the only billionaire the Republicans have nominated Kerry was also worth hundreds of millions like Romney (and Gore is now in that league too) and JFK's father was a billionaire in today's terms
It's not an attempt to make a partisan point, but rather guidance for anyone interested in the future of the GOP presidential primaries (e.g. for betting), that billionaire patronage is the price of admission.
Not necessarily, billionaire patronage will just go to whoever is nominee. McCain for example had few wealthy backers in 2008 and at one stage his campaign was near bankrupt.
Bloomberg is the richest candidate ever to run for president and ran in the Democratic primaries.
In 2008, McCain-Feingold was in full force, things have changed since then, lots more money is required.
The 2019 world cup victory was a British endeavour.
We were captained by an Irishman.
Prior to 1992 Scotland were under the auspices of the TCCB, so the 1981 Ashes was a British endeavour.
The Scottish team didn't become independent until 1994.
Is Eoin Morgan British?
He's had a British passport since birth.
Yes I just read that on wiki too!
But England winning the World Cup wasn't "a British endeavour" because an Irishman captained the team, because the Irish part of him isn't British. He might as well be Japanese! He is half English, that's why he plays for England
Well the team is England & Wales, which makes it British.
If you want to tell the Welsh that they are English then I wish you good luck.
In Anabobazina world if you predict a Trump victory then you're a Trump supporter.
Heck I've predicted Man City to win the Premier League which doesn't mean I'm a Citeh fan.
Interestingly, the only state that Trump is polling better in than 2016 is California. No way does he win it, but it does mean that the Democrat vote is better distributed this time. So when Biden leads in the polls, it is in places that matter.
The 2019 world cup victory was a British endeavour.
We were captained by an Irishman.
Prior to 1992 Scotland were under the auspices of the TCCB, so the 1981 Ashes was a British endeavour.
The Scottish team didn't become independent until 1994.
Is Eoin Morgan British?
He's had a British passport since birth.
Yes I just read that on wiki too!
But England winning the World Cup wasn't "a British endeavour" because an Irishman captained the team, because the Irish part of him isn't British. He might as well be Japanese! He is half English, that's why he plays for England
Well the team is England & Wales, which makes it British.
If you want to tell the Welsh that they are English then I wish you good luck.
No I wouldn't tell them that, but there weren't any Welshmen in the 2019 World Cup winning team to tell!
So really it was an English endeavour; no other parts of the UK were represented? Ireland, New Zealand, West Indies, and South Africa maybe...
Off topic but I've finally got all my provisional results back and it looks like I'm going to finish on 72% overall, which is a distinction/1st class. I'm thrilled!
Yup. And the syphoning off of left-leaning votes by Respect/TH First/Whatever else they became I rather lost track made it easier for the Conservatives for quite a while.
But frankly, areas like TH should have a solid opposition block of Conservative councillors. The fact that they increasingly don't ought to give some on the right pause for thought, but I bet it doesn't.
Labour won 42 out of 45 seats on just 46% of the vote. The anti-Labour vote was equally split between Aspire (the former Tower Hamlets First), PATH (another split from TH First), the Conservatives, the LDs and the Greens. That division was a huge benefit for Labour and a fine example of how FPTP works.
Even in Newham where Labour won all 60 seats on 67.5% of the vote, a clear third are completely unrepresented.
The GOP will recover post-Trump and I suspect after a heavy defeat there'll be a quick and largely unseen purge of pro-Trump officials within the Party ad the contest for the 2024 GOP Presidential candidate will be fascinating.
The big change was Citizens United. Since then the GOP committees have become smaller spenders than the collective cash of billionaire and multi-millionaire donors. Also since Citizens United, the GOP presidential candidates have been in the billionaire class, even if Romney is only worth a few hundred million, and also spent tens of millions of their own money. Among the close losers in the primaries, most had a billionaire patron like Adelson or Friess. So these are pointers.
Trump is the only billionaire the Republicans have nominated Kerry was also worth hundreds of millions like Romney (and Gore is now in that league too) and JFK's father was a billionaire in today's terms
It's not an attempt to make a partisan point, but rather guidance for anyone interested in the future of the GOP presidential primaries (e.g. for betting), that billionaire patronage is the price of admission.
Not necessarily, billionaire patronage will just go to whoever is nominee. McCain for example had few wealthy backers in 2008 and at one stage his campaign was near bankrupt.
Bloomberg is the richest candidate ever to run for president and ran in the Democratic primaries.
In 2008, McCain-Feingold was in full force, things have changed since then, lots more money is required.
Romney only got 52% of the Republican primary vote even in 2012 and Cruz won a lot of primaries in 2016
The 2019 world cup victory was a British endeavour.
We were captained by an Irishman.
Prior to 1992 Scotland were under the auspices of the TCCB, so the 1981 Ashes was a British endeavour.
The Scottish team didn't become independent until 1994.
Is Eoin Morgan British?
He's had a British passport since birth.
Yes I just read that on wiki too!
But England winning the World Cup wasn't "a British endeavour" because an Irishman captained the team, because the Irish part of him isn't British. He might as well be Japanese! He is half English, that's why he plays for England
Well the team is England & Wales, which makes it British.
If you want to tell the Welsh that they are English then I wish you good luck.
In Anabobazina world if you predict a Trump victory then you're a Trump supporter.
Heck I've predicted Man City to win the Premier League which doesn't mean I'm a Citeh fan.
Interestingly, the only state that Trump is polling better in than 2016 is California. No way does he win it, but it does mean that the Democrat vote is better distributed this time. So when Biden leads in the polls, it is in places that matter.
But also that Trump could win the popular vote as well as the Electoral College this time if he recovers, in 2016 he led the popular vote until California reported
Say this is as good as it gets for Biden. He'd still only win about as bigly as Obama's second go.
Que? Obama had a 3.9% lead over Romney. The RCP lead has Biden 10.1 percentage points ahead.
If @HYUFD were here, he would predict a Biden landslide on the basis of current polling. Personally, I think Trump on EV 200-249 with Ladbrokes is the value at 3/1.
On current polling he's below 200 ECVs.
I am expecting a little swingback, but he could well be trounced bigly.
I am expecting a shy Trump vote this time out. College educated suburban whites who voted Trump in 2016 expecting the "solemn gravity of the office" (copyright every fucking American political journalist 2016) to moderate him and are deeply embarrassed that it hasn't. But that isn't going to stop them voting GOP.
There are lots of Trumpton Butts that you need to factor in. Look at this forum for evidence:
Ave It Mortimer HYUFD Mr Ed William Glenn (?) Andy JS
All play up their dislike for Trump (but), would still vote for him...
Biden would be Obama Mark 2 who, to me, was a poor President - let China and Russia run riot, didn't do anything whatsoever to sort out the structural problems in the US or (irony of ironies) did nothing on reducing racial inequality or police brutality when he was in office (Eric Garner anyone?).
Err, one of the many things Trump has done was to repeal Obama era regulation of specific police forces who were investigated by the justice department for police brutality and Racial discrimination.
Yup. And the syphoning off of left-leaning votes by Respect/TH First/Whatever else they became I rather lost track made it easier for the Conservatives for quite a while.
But frankly, areas like TH should have a solid opposition block of Conservative councillors. The fact that they increasingly don't ought to give some on the right pause for thought, but I bet it doesn't.
Labour won 42 out of 45 seats on just 46% of the vote. The anti-Labour vote was equally split between Aspire (the former Tower Hamlets First), PATH (another split from TH First), the Conservatives, the LDs and the Greens. That division was a huge benefit for Labour and a fine example of how FPTP works.
Even in Newham where Labour won all 60 seats on 67.5% of the vote, a clear third are completely unrepresented.
It's a strong argument for PR in local elections.
In Epping Forest we do not have a single Labour councillor, in Newham they do not have a single Tory councillor, however in Glasgow they now elect Tory councillors thanks to STV
The GOP will recover post-Trump and I suspect after a heavy defeat there'll be a quick and largely unseen purge of pro-Trump officials within the Party ad the contest for the 2024 GOP Presidential candidate will be fascinating.
The big change was Citizens United. Since then the GOP committees have become smaller spenders than the collective cash of billionaire and multi-millionaire donors. Also since Citizens United, the GOP presidential candidates have been in the billionaire class, even if Romney is only worth a few hundred million, and also spent tens of millions of their own money. Among the close losers in the primaries, most had a billionaire patron like Adelson or Friess. So these are pointers.
Trump is the only billionaire the Republicans have nominated Kerry was also worth hundreds of millions like Romney (and Gore is now in that league too) and JFK's father was a billionaire in today's terms
It's not an attempt to make a partisan point, but rather guidance for anyone interested in the future of the GOP presidential primaries (e.g. for betting), that billionaire patronage is the price of admission.
Not necessarily, billionaire patronage will just go to whoever is nominee. McCain for example had few wealthy backers in 2008 and at one stage his campaign was near bankrupt.
Bloomberg is the richest candidate ever to run for president and ran in the Democratic primaries.
In 2008, McCain-Feingold was in full force, things have changed since then, lots more money is required.
Romney only got 52% of the Republican primary vote even in 2012 and Cruz won a lot of primaries in 2016
Cruz was backed for the first year of his campaign by $10 million each from a handful of donors led by billionaire Robert Mercer of Cambridge Analytica fame. Friends of friends worked at the infamous CA at the time and they were pretty much just working on the Cruz campaign.
Yup. And the syphoning off of left-leaning votes by Respect/TH First/Whatever else they became I rather lost track made it easier for the Conservatives for quite a while.
But frankly, areas like TH should have a solid opposition block of Conservative councillors. The fact that they increasingly don't ought to give some on the right pause for thought, but I bet it doesn't.
Labour won 42 out of 45 seats on just 46% of the vote. The anti-Labour vote was equally split between Aspire (the former Tower Hamlets First), PATH (another split from TH First), the Conservatives, the LDs and the Greens. That division was a huge benefit for Labour and a fine example of how FPTP works.
Even in Newham where Labour won all 60 seats on 67.5% of the vote, a clear third are completely unrepresented.
It's a strong argument for PR in local elections.
Exactly. FPTP frequently produces one-party states where one strong party wipes the floor with a collection of less popular opponents, even though the dominant party most commonly does not represent the overwhelming majority of popular opinion.
See also: the General Election result in 2015 for Scotland. SNP: 50% of the vote, 95% of the MPs.
Say this is as good as it gets for Biden. He'd still only win about as bigly as Obama's second go.
Que? Obama had a 3.9% lead over Romney. The RCP lead has Biden 10.1 percentage points ahead.
If @HYUFD were here, he would predict a Biden landslide on the basis of current polling. Personally, I think Trump on EV 200-249 with Ladbrokes is the value at 3/1.
On current polling he's below 200 ECVs.
I am expecting a little swingback, but he could well be trounced bigly.
I am expecting a shy Trump vote this time out. College educated suburban whites who voted Trump in 2016 expecting the "solemn gravity of the office" (copyright every fucking American political journalist 2016) to moderate him and are deeply embarrassed that it hasn't. But that isn't going to stop them voting GOP.
There are lots of Trumpton Butts that you need to factor in. Look at this forum for evidence:
Ave It Mortimer HYUFD Mr Ed William Glenn (?) Andy JS
All play up their dislike for Trump (but), would still vote for him...
Biden would be Obama Mark 2 who, to me, was a poor President - let China and Russia run riot, didn't do anything whatsoever to sort out the structural problems in the US or (irony of ironies) did nothing on reducing racial inequality or police brutality when he was in office (Eric Garner anyone?).
Err, one of the many things Trump has done was to repeal Obama era regulation of specific police forces who were investigated by the justice department for police brutality and Racial discrimination.
And what exactly did those Obama-era regulations do in concrete terms? Zilch. The fact is many of the worst cases happened in Democrat-controlled cities and so there was a reluctance to go after the Police.
Jenrick seems to have crossed some lines in this and should resign, but I don't think every time someone gets told something there is a note made of it.
Tory MPs reported to be on Parler, (the alternative to Twitter):
Paul Howell (Sedgefield) Maria Caulfield (Lewes) Mark Jenkinson (Workington) Ranil Jayawardena (NE Hants) Dean Russell (Watford) James Cleverly (Braintree) Angela Richardson (Guildford) Nadine Dorries (Mid Beds) Steve Baker (Wycombe) Henry Smith (Crawley) Ben Bradley (Mansfield)
The GOP will recover post-Trump and I suspect after a heavy defeat there'll be a quick and largely unseen purge of pro-Trump officials within the Party ad the contest for the 2024 GOP Presidential candidate will be fascinating.
The big change was Citizens United. Since then the GOP committees have become smaller spenders than the collective cash of billionaire and multi-millionaire donors. Also since Citizens United, the GOP presidential candidates have been in the billionaire class, even if Romney is only worth a few hundred million, and also spent tens of millions of their own money. Among the close losers in the primaries, most had a billionaire patron like Adelson or Friess. So these are pointers.
Trump is the only billionaire the Republicans have nominated Kerry was also worth hundreds of millions like Romney (and Gore is now in that league too) and JFK's father was a billionaire in today's terms
It's not an attempt to make a partisan point, but rather guidance for anyone interested in the future of the GOP presidential primaries (e.g. for betting), that billionaire patronage is the price of admission.
Not necessarily, billionaire patronage will just go to whoever is nominee. McCain for example had few wealthy backers in 2008 and at one stage his campaign was near bankrupt.
Bloomberg is the richest candidate ever to run for president and ran in the Democratic primaries.
In 2008, McCain-Feingold was in full force, things have changed since then, lots more money is required.
Romney only got 52% of the Republican primary vote even in 2012 and Cruz won a lot of primaries in 2016
Cruz was backed for the first year of his campaign by $10 million each from a handful of donors led by billionaire Robert Mercer of Cambridge Analytica fame. Friends of friends worked at the infamous CA at the time and they were pretty much just working on the Cruz campaign.
Though that kind of proves my point, Cruz spent more than Trump, $85 million to $63 million but Trump won the nomination.
Kasich spent just $18 million but still won more delegates and votes than Carson who spent $62 million and Jeb Bush who spent $35 milion and more votes than Rubio who spent $50 million
In Anabobazina world if you predict a Trump victory then you're a Trump supporter.
Heck I've predicted Man City to win the Premier League which doesn't mean I'm a Citeh fan.
Interestingly, the only state that Trump is polling better in than 2016 is California. No way does he win it, but it does mean that the Democrat vote is better distributed this time. So when Biden leads in the polls, it is in places that matter.
But also that Trump could win the popular vote as well as the Electoral College this time if he recovers, in 2016 he led the popular vote until California reported
In Epping Forest we do not have a single Labour councillor, in Newham they do not have a single Tory councillor, however in Glasgow they now elect Tory councillors thanks to STV
Would you, as a Conservative, be prepared to consider some form of PR in local elections? I'm not arguing for one system over another- a number of different systems exist.
I think it ridiculous there is no representation for those who vote Conservative or LD in Newham or for those who vote Labour in Epping Forest.
Say this is as good as it gets for Biden. He'd still only win about as bigly as Obama's second go.
Que? Obama had a 3.9% lead over Romney. The RCP lead has Biden 10.1 percentage points ahead.
If @HYUFD were here, he would predict a Biden landslide on the basis of current polling. Personally, I think Trump on EV 200-249 with Ladbrokes is the value at 3/1.
On current polling he's below 200 ECVs.
I am expecting a little swingback, but he could well be trounced bigly.
I am expecting a shy Trump vote this time out. College educated suburban whites who voted Trump in 2016 expecting the "solemn gravity of the office" (copyright every fucking American political journalist 2016) to moderate him and are deeply embarrassed that it hasn't. But that isn't going to stop them voting GOP.
There are lots of Trumpton Butts that you need to factor in. Look at this forum for evidence:
Ave It Mortimer HYUFD Mr Ed William Glenn (?) Andy JS
All play up their dislike for Trump (but), would still vote for him...
I wouldn't actually, the last Republican candidate I would have voted for president is George W Bush in 2000, though had the Democrats nominated Sanders rather than Biden I would have voted for Trump
So you’d vote for Biden?
Apologies if so.
Yes but as I am not American what I would do is irrelevant
It's not irrelevant. It's key. Where you go, so goes small town USA. At least this time.
Say this is as good as it gets for Biden. He'd still only win about as bigly as Obama's second go.
Que? Obama had a 3.9% lead over Romney. The RCP lead has Biden 10.1 percentage points ahead.
If @HYUFD were here, he would predict a Biden landslide on the basis of current polling. Personally, I think Trump on EV 200-249 with Ladbrokes is the value at 3/1.
On current polling he's below 200 ECVs.
I am expecting a little swingback, but he could well be trounced bigly.
I am expecting a shy Trump vote this time out. College educated suburban whites who voted Trump in 2016 expecting the "solemn gravity of the office" (copyright every fucking American political journalist 2016) to moderate him and are deeply embarrassed that it hasn't. But that isn't going to stop them voting GOP.
There are lots of Trumpton Butts that you need to factor in. Look at this forum for evidence:
Ave It Mortimer HYUFD Mr Ed William Glenn (?) Andy JS
All play up their dislike for Trump (but), would still vote for him...
I wouldn't actually, the last Republican candidate I would have voted for president is George W Bush in 2000, though had the Democrats nominated Sanders rather than Biden I would have voted for Trump
Say this is as good as it gets for Biden. He'd still only win about as bigly as Obama's second go.
Que? Obama had a 3.9% lead over Romney. The RCP lead has Biden 10.1 percentage points ahead.
If @HYUFD were here, he would predict a Biden landslide on the basis of current polling. Personally, I think Trump on EV 200-249 with Ladbrokes is the value at 3/1.
I still remain of the view it will be close, as Alistair alludes to there is a shy Trump vote who pretend to pollsters they are undecided or don't know
Nah, bollocks. The feel is very, very different from 2016.
The only way it will be close is if the Dems let the lightning-rod left wingers take over the party completely between now and November or if middle America feels there to be a genuine and major law and order issue. BLM is not turning into that currently, so it would have to be something else.
In 2016 I laid out in a post the exact way I thought Trump would win if he could win. National polls obscuring that the Dem vote was all in California, impressive almost perfect voter efficiency and a polling miss in the Rust Belt.
In the same post I then dismissed it as too unlikely to happen. Someone else, I forget who, lumped on Trump based on my analysis.
So this time out I'm paying more attention to the story of how Trump wins if he could win.
I start from the position that Trump is fucked. He's doomed. But if he wasn't doomed then how would that come to be. And the first and most crucial step would be shy Trump voters in the polls. And the only demographic who would display that shyness are suburban whites with college degrees. People concerned about civility.
Now, the evidence is that the GOP have seen an exodus of this demo to the Dems but maybe that is only mid-term issue. When it comes to the actual big stick, who has a he power to submit judges, then they will come home for the Presidential.
If Trump is going to win that is.
What is happening in the few special Congressional races backs up the thesis about shy white suburban college voters. The special race for NY-27 has just been won by the Republicans with 69% share of the vote. In 2018, Chris Collins got 49%. Yes, he was under indictment but the result today also saw the Republicans beat the 67% Collins got in 2016. Whatever people say about low turnout etc, there is no evidence from actual races in 2020 that suburban Republicans are deserting Trump and some evidence (CA-45) they may be more committed.
This however is cherry picking.
GOP got smashed in 2018 because Suburban whites did not vote GOP.
TH includes the squillionaires of Docklands. There were quite a lot of Conservative councillors in Tower Hamlets for a while.
There were 8 in 2010 but the boundaries were changed and the number of councillors reduced to 45 in 2013. In 2014, the Conservatives win 5 but in 2018 lost three of those including the seat held by the Conservative candidate for East Ham in the 2017 GE.
The two survivors were veteran Peter Golds in Island Gardens and Andrew Wood in Canary Wharf.
The current composition is now Labour 42, Conservative 1, LD 1, Independent 1.
Yup. And the syphoning off of left-leaning votes by Respect/TH First/Whatever else they became I rather lost track made it easier for the Conservatives for quite a while.
But frankly, areas like TH should have a solid opposition block of Conservative councillors. The fact that they increasingly don't ought to give some on the right pause for thought, but I bet it doesn't.
Inner London is now overwhelmingly Labour but the Tories now win in areas like Burnley or Bolsover or Grimsby they did not have a prayer even in the Thatcher years
One of the curiosities of the Red to Blue Wall is that it often wasn't signalled in local election results.
Burnley has 4 Conservative councillors out of 45. Bolsover has 2 out of 37. Mansfield (hi Ben B!) has 2 out of 36.
NE Lincs has a Conservative council, but that's always been more marginal.
But the unfortunate curiosity is this. Most districts, even in Inner London, have got a posh bit that historically has been Conservative. Dulwich Village, say. Or the bits of Lewisham up towards Blackheath or down towards Forest Hill. Or Docklands in Tower Hamlets. They generally stayed loyal to Conservatives even in 1990.
Now they've not only already gone, but some have forgotten they were ever there.
It's a slightly different process to what happened in places like Cambridge. There, Conservatives sort of drifted into a respectable third and then got squeezed to nothing in the hard-fought Labour - Lib Dem fight. In London, the change is to a one-party state. That's not good for anyone.
Say this is as good as it gets for Biden. He'd still only win about as bigly as Obama's second go.
Que? Obama had a 3.9% lead over Romney. The RCP lead has Biden 10.1 percentage points ahead.
Biden leads consistently in no Romney state except Arizona, he trails consistently in Iowa, he might take North Carolina, but he might lose Ohio. And that is if we believe the polls today would hold. Say it's as good as it gets, and things get worse for him, then the win is more marginal than Obama 2, after everything that has happened re Trump.
For those betting on LibDem leadership - the positon at 5pm tonight. Much too early to read anything into this I think.
I'll feel a little bad for him if he loses yet again, but despite playing up his Tory fighting credentials I just have this suspicion the good people of 2020 are not ever the coalition yet and the LDs won't want to risk people bringing it up all the time.
Layla is clear fav atm - 1.65.
Funny when you remember 2 MP nominations each is more than half the party accounted for .
Only way is up for the LDs surely.
Not at all. They've come back from a worse position (well, their predecessors anyway), but that's no guarnatee they will again
I think they are in real trouble in some areas that used to of relative strength. Here in the SW for instance they still haven't even regained second place in many seats, so it is not impossible (though I don't think it likely) that Labour could consolidate the anti-tory vote in some of those areas. And they could still go backwards.
Both demographics and cultural issues (e.g. SW has always been more eurosceptic, LDs included) are trending away from LDs down these parts
We should also remember that four of the eleven Lib Dem MPs represent Scottish seats and may, as such, find themselves out of a job before the end of the current Parliamentary term.
What sequence of events do you envisage precipitating this?
TH includes the squillionaires of Docklands. There were quite a lot of Conservative councillors in Tower Hamlets for a while.
There were 8 in 2010 but the boundaries were changed and the number of councillors reduced to 45 in 2013. In 2014, the Conservatives win 5 but in 2018 lost three of those including the seat held by the Conservative candidate for East Ham in the 2017 GE.
The two survivors were veteran Peter Golds in Island Gardens and Andrew Wood in Canary Wharf.
The current composition is now Labour 42, Conservative 1, LD 1, Independent 1.
Yup. And the syphoning off of left-leaning votes by Respect/TH First/Whatever else they became I rather lost track made it easier for the Conservatives for quite a while.
But frankly, areas like TH should have a solid opposition block of Conservative councillors. The fact that they increasingly don't ought to give some on the right pause for thought, but I bet it doesn't.
Inner London is now overwhelmingly Labour but the Tories now win in areas like Burnley or Bolsover or Grimsby they did not have a prayer even in the Thatcher years
One of the curiosities of the Red to Blue Wall is that it often wasn't signalled in local election results.
Burnley has 4 Conservative councillors out of 45. Bolsover has 2 out of 37. Mansfield (hi Ben B!) has 2 out of 36.
NE Lincs has a Conservative council, but that's always been more marginal.
But the unfortunate curiosity is this. Most districts, even in Inner London, have got a posh bit that historically has been Conservative. Dulwich Village, say. Or the bits of Lewisham up towards Blackheath or down towards Forest Hill. Or Docklands in Tower Hamlets. They generally stayed loyal to Conservatives even in 1990.
Now they've not only already gone, but some have forgotten they were ever there.
It's a slightly different process to what happened in places like Cambridge. There, Conservatives sort of drifted into a respectable third and then got squeezed to nothing in the hard-fought Labour - Lib Dem fight. In London, the change is to a one-party state. That's not good for anyone.
When you realise that local elections are likely dominated by "ABC1", even more so than post-1997 GEs, the changes in local election result patterns make far more sense.
The 2019 world cup victory was a British endeavour.
We were captained by an Irishman.
Prior to 1992 Scotland were under the auspices of the TCCB, so the 1981 Ashes was a British endeavour.
The Scottish team didn't become independent until 1994.
Gavin Hamilton played at Johannesburg in 1999 (he got a pair and took 0-63) - have there been any more England test cricketers since who were born in Scotland?
Off topic but I've finally got all my provisional results back and it looks like I'm going to finish on 72% overall, which is a distinction/1st class. I'm thrilled!
Say this is as good as it gets for Biden. He'd still only win about as bigly as Obama's second go.
Que? Obama had a 3.9% lead over Romney. The RCP lead has Biden 10.1 percentage points ahead.
If @HYUFD were here, he would predict a Biden landslide on the basis of current polling. Personally, I think Trump on EV 200-249 with Ladbrokes is the value at 3/1.
On current polling he's below 200 ECVs.
I am expecting a little swingback, but he could well be trounced bigly.
I am expecting a shy Trump vote this time out. College educated suburban whites who voted Trump in 2016 expecting the "solemn gravity of the office" (copyright every fucking American political journalist 2016) to moderate him and are deeply embarrassed that it hasn't. But that isn't going to stop them voting GOP.
There are lots of Trumpton Butts that you need to factor in. Look at this forum for evidence:
Ave It Mortimer HYUFD Mr Ed William Glenn (?) Andy JS
All play up their dislike for Trump (but), would still vote for him...
So we know whom Comrade Anabobazina will be calling in for questioning if she wins power
I've actually been open about it and I have said it on here. I would vote for Trump over Biden. If it was Trump vs Sanders or Warren, my decision would be closer because I believe that the States is an absolute mess and needs a proper kick up the backside to rectify its problems, but probably Trump over either. With Trump, Sanders or Warren, there is a chance you would have radical reform (and to give Trump credit, he pushed through tax reform that had eluded many others). You would get nothing with Biden.
Biden would be Obama Mark 2 who, to me, was a poor President - let China and Russia run riot, didn't do anything whatsoever to sort out the structural problems in the US or (irony of ironies) did nothing on reducing racial inequality or police brutality when he was in office (Eric Garner anyone?).
As for being a "Trumpton Butt", what I said is that I don't like the man from what I can see of him but dislike of the individual has not stopped me voting before for what I think is the best option to lead. I voted for Cameron in 2010 and 2015, even though I had found him deeply unimpressive when I had interactions with him (and found Osborne obnoxious).
Hope that clears it up
Ps I still very much believe Trump will win in November
A very long way of saying that you are a Trump supporter.
Comments
Besides anything else, we don't know the outcome of the Oxford and Imperial vaccine projects yet. If one of them hits the jackpot before anybody else, it's Nobel Prizes all round and Britain saves the world. On the other hand, the pessimists might be right, there'll be a second major outbreak in Winter that we stuff up, and we're back in some kind of lockdown again just in time for Christmas. Only time will tell.
And if it did make a difference? If it was on a knife edge?
The last Democrat to defeat an incumbent President was Bill Clinton. The last Republican to defeat an incumbent President was Ronald Reagan.
Before that, you had Carter beating Ford in 1976 but Ford hadn't been on the Presidential or VP ballot in 1972 so I'm letting that one go.
You have to go back to 1932 and FDR's defeat of Herbert Hoover which ended 12 years of Republican control. FDR won 57-40 and in EV terms by 472-59. Hoover won Pennsylvania but that's about it.
If Biden were to defeat Trump substantially it would be akin to Reagan's win over Carter in 1980 (51-41) or FDR's over Hoover - that significant.
Reagan's win put the Republicans in the White House for 12 years - FDR's win kept the Republicans out for 20 years.
Weren't those people 200 years ago awful?!
We were captained by an Irishman.
Prior to 1992 Scotland were under the auspices of the TCCB, so the 1981 Ashes was a British endeavour.
The Scottish team didn't become independent until 1994.
PB, in fact the world, needs more lawyers.
New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo, New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy and Connecticut Gov. Ned Lamont said the travel advisory applies to anyone coming from a state with a positive test rate higher than 10 per 100,000 residents over a 7-day rolling average or a state with a 10% or higher positivity rate over a 7-day rolling average.
"We have to make sure the virus doesn't come in on a plane," Cuomo said.
"We worked very hard to get the viral transmission rate down, and we don't want to see it go up," he added.
As of Wednesday, the advisory applies to Alabama, Arkansas, Arizona, Florida, North Carolina, South Carolina, Washington, Utah and Texas. It begins tonight at midnight.
The two survivors were veteran Peter Golds in Island Gardens and Andrew Wood in Canary Wharf.
The current composition is now Labour 42, Conservative 1, LD 1, Independent 1.
For cricket purposes Morgan is English isnt he, not Irish?
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-we-work-council-idUSKBN23V21V
Former Conservative Council leader Ian Harvey faces a challenge at a meeting tomorrow evening.
Mr Hamilton and Peter Such.
https://home.bhr.co.uk/a1cnowr-self-check-4-test-pack-cardiochek
Remember you are VAT exempt.
Not really worth buying less than 4, as you need at least 2 in case one fails, and the price / quantity curve is quite steep.
It will either help calm your mind or be a useful thing to help your Doc approve an official one.
You can get them in 10s but the sweet spot is probably 4 as the shelf life would normally be 9-18 months.
Heck I've predicted Man City to win the Premier League which doesn't mean I'm a Citeh fan.
But frankly, areas like TH should have a solid opposition block of Conservative councillors. The fact that they increasingly don't ought to give some on the right pause for thought, but I bet it doesn't.
Bloomberg is the richest candidate ever to run for president and ran in the Democratic primaries.
But England winning the World Cup wasn't "a British endeavour" because an Irishman captained the team, because the Irish part of him isn't British. He might as well be Japanese! He is half English, that's why he plays for England
Many congrats and best wishes for the future
I've actually been open about it and I have said it on here. I would vote for Trump over Biden. If it was Trump vs Sanders or Warren, my decision would be closer because I believe that the States is an absolute mess and needs a proper kick up the backside to rectify its problems, but probably Trump over either. With Trump, Sanders or Warren, there is a chance you would have radical reform (and to give Trump credit, he pushed through tax reform that had eluded many others). You would get nothing with Biden.
Biden would be Obama Mark 2 who, to me, was a poor President - let China and Russia run riot, didn't do anything whatsoever to sort out the structural problems in the US or (irony of ironies) did nothing on reducing racial inequality or police brutality when he was in office (Eric Garner anyone?).
As for being a "Trumpton Butt", what I said is that I don't like the man from what I can see of him but dislike of the individual has not stopped me voting before for what I think is the best option to lead. I voted for Cameron in 2010 and 2015, even though I had found him deeply unimpressive when I had interactions with him (and found Osborne obnoxious).
Hope that clears it up
Ps I still very much believe Trump will win in November
If you want to tell the Welsh that they are English then I wish you good luck.
Dominic Jackman, the founder of Escape from City, which helps people find work beyond London, said inquiries over the last fortnight revealed “a fundamental change in jobseeker preferences”.
Of 1,000 people signing up to the service, 51% wanted to leave the capital compared with 20% for the same period in 2019.
“Pre-Covid, while our jobseekers wanted to ‘escape the rat race’, a lot of them actually were happy living and working in London,” he said. “For the first time ever we have more people wanting to leave London than stay in it which is a huge shift in aspirations.”
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/jun/24/covid-19-sparks-exodus-of-middle-class-londoners-in-search-of-the-good-life
So really it was an English endeavour; no other parts of the UK were represented? Ireland, New Zealand, West Indies, and South Africa maybe...
Even in Newham where Labour won all 60 seats on 67.5% of the vote, a clear third are completely unrepresented.
It's a strong argument for PR in local elections.
Longhand: Kingdom of England & Wales
See also: the General Election result in 2015 for Scotland. SNP: 50% of the vote, 95% of the MPs.
Like me, he's a one man melting pot of multiculturalism.
Kasich spent just $18 million but still won more delegates and votes than Carson who spent $62 million and Jeb Bush who spent $35 milion and more votes than Rubio who spent $50 million
https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2016/jul/01/michael-caputo/trump-was-outspent-his-closest-primary-opponents/
I think it ridiculous there is no representation for those who vote Conservative or LD in Newham or for those who vote Labour in Epping Forest.
https://twitter.com/johnsweeneyroar/status/1275896670115545089?s=20
GOP got smashed in 2018 because Suburban whites did not vote GOP.
Burnley has 4 Conservative councillors out of 45.
Bolsover has 2 out of 37.
Mansfield (hi Ben B!) has 2 out of 36.
NE Lincs has a Conservative council, but that's always been more marginal.
But the unfortunate curiosity is this. Most districts, even in Inner London, have got a posh bit that historically has been Conservative. Dulwich Village, say. Or the bits of Lewisham up towards Blackheath or down towards Forest Hill. Or Docklands in Tower Hamlets. They generally stayed loyal to Conservatives even in 1990.
Now they've not only already gone, but some have forgotten they were ever there.
It's a slightly different process to what happened in places like Cambridge. There, Conservatives sort of drifted into a respectable third and then got squeezed to nothing in the hard-fought Labour - Lib Dem fight. In London, the change is to a one-party state. That's not good for anyone.
If I were him I'd come out strongly against it and appeal to the Left to rein it in.
vs
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/06/23/andrew-bailey-struggles-resist-pressures-monetary-financing/
Could potentially apply to the financing of his mega plans.
Oops that was before.
Indeed, not even a Trumpton Butt.
A Trumpton red in tooth and claw!
I’m predicting a Trump victory and can barely think of anything worse.
Lots of Trumpton Butts on PB - those who claim to dislike him but would still vote for him.