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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If Starmer is ever to become PM he’s likely going to need some

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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,961

    yeah - if you're saying that looks like austin powers, get off twitter, m8, and get outside. take some time off.
    THE FLAG IS BACK TO FRONT

    :/
    The union flag being flown upside down used to be a maritime distress signal. Fairly apt for Bozo. Ian Paisley would have had something to say about it!
    Na, it's the normal way to show it on planes.
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,181
    glw said:

    One problem with sacking RLB like this is every time another Labour MP does something similar, and that will happen on Twitter, Starmer is going to be put in the position of sacking them too or looking like he was settling a score.

    Or perhaps it will make Labour MPs just a leetle more careful about sharing things on Twitter with dubious content in them.

    So, say, if they are attending an event hosted by a Holocaust denier, they don't give them money or praise the work.
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    Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,059

    Unprecedented scenes on PB as a thread on the Lib Dems is overshadowed by events.....

    Who?
    I forget....
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,052
    FF43 said:

    Wouldn't that cut both ways? If the EU creates rules/supports industries that we believe give them an unfair advantage, we could impose tariffs on them?

    https://twitter.com/DavidGHFrost/status/1276158485743439873?s=20

    Hmm. The one way to avoid that unforeseeable risk of arbitrary treatment is for both sides to sign up permanently to common rule, in effect for the UK io commit to EU rules. I wonder what Frost's intention is?
    We can force the EU to buckle on their threat of retaliatory tariffs by agreeing to follow their rules.
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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Superficially the sacking of RLB looks harsh, but it my guess is that Starmer has put the shadow cabinet under a warning that anything that can be perceived as anti-semitic will result in an instant dismissal, so she's had to go. Her crime is fairly minor: praising an article about a socialist actor. As others have said, there is a danger that absolutely any criticism of the Israeli state (including its Secret Service) is taken as ipso facto anti-semitic. We can criticise Putin without criticising the Russian people. Israel perhaps should be a special case, about which we need to be especially careful, but the Israeli government and its agencies must not be beyond criticism.

    So although RLB had to go, and Starmer is right, I would rather she had gone for her poor performance as shadow Education Secretary. She has failed to hold to account effectively the manifest failings of Williamson and Johnson on the return to school fiasco.

    It does contrast sharply with Jenrick, who despite the defence of some on here should clearly be out of the cabinet for many reasons. The fact that the public don't really care is irrelevant, and signifies governance by publicity rather than by principle. This will end up backfiring on the PM.

    She has been invisible on schools. I was just thinking that the other day.

    The sacking for this might as you say be good politics. It probably is. I do hope so because on its own it looks to me unwarranted.
    Unwarranted? Unwarranted?

    And you wonder why I attacked RLB (even if hyperbolically) for being an anti-Semite!!!!

    Maybe I should start my own list of things you have said like you do for me, though most of them twisted.

    1: Sacking RLB was unwarranted.
    I'm OK with that - in the sense of this "offence" rather than the wider context of Starmer wanting a clause 4 moment.

    There was a discussion earlier about how sometimes juries reach a verdict based on a vista broader than the case in front of them.

    This was IMO similar.
    Clause 4 would have been expelling her and Corbyn and the rest of their ilk.

    Maybe it will come but I'm not holding my breath.
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    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,187

    kinabalu said:

    Superficially the sacking of RLB looks harsh, but it my guess is that Starmer has put the shadow cabinet under a warning that anything that can be perceived as anti-semitic will result in an instant dismissal, so she's had to go. Her crime is fairly minor: praising an article about a socialist actor. As others have said, there is a danger that absolutely any criticism of the Israeli state (including its Secret Service) is taken as ipso facto anti-semitic. We can criticise Putin without criticising the Russian people. Israel perhaps should be a special case, about which we need to be especially careful, but the Israeli government and its agencies must not be beyond criticism.

    So although RLB had to go, and Starmer is right, I would rather she had gone for her poor performance as shadow Education Secretary. She has failed to hold to account effectively the manifest failings of Williamson and Johnson on the return to school fiasco.

    It does contrast sharply with Jenrick, who despite the defence of some on here should clearly be out of the cabinet for many reasons. The fact that the public don't really care is irrelevant, and signifies governance by publicity rather than by principle. This will end up backfiring on the PM.

    She has been invisible on schools. I was just thinking that the other day.

    The sacking for this might as you say be good politics. It probably is. I do hope so because on its own it looks to me unwarranted.
    Unwarranted? Losing your job for expressing your political beliefs seems to be all the rage these days...
    There’s the false equivalence again. If we were to outlaw that I'm not sure where it would leave you.

    Considerably quieter certainly.
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    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,709

    eek said:

    As a slight aside, a question for all Tory Members on here

    https://twitter.com/mrchrisaddison/status/1276167587991339017

    And why do Unions give millions to the Labour Party if not in the hope of getting something out of it?
    Don't understand Tory attacks on union support for the Labour Party. Maybe it made sense in the 1970's but hardly now... It means accepting hedge fund vultures, if not property developer pornographers, as a more legitimate lobby than mass movements democratically accountable to their members.
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,181
    kle4 said:

    Blimey, Starmer's grown a pair and sacked RLB.

    Right or wrong - and I assume the left think it wrong - it establishes himself as decisive against his own side, and that impression will be helpful even if he is indecisive later.
    The other thing is, Long-Bailey is a free hit. She was so useless nobody will keep outrage about her sacking for long.

    So politically he has little to lose and an awful lot to gain.

    He might even get a decent shadow minister at education.
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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    RobD said:

    yeah - if you're saying that looks like austin powers, get off twitter, m8, and get outside. take some time off.
    THE FLAG IS BACK TO FRONT

    :/
    The union flag being flown upside down used to be a maritime distress signal. Fairly apt for Bozo. Ian Paisley would have had something to say about it!
    Na, it's the normal way to show it on planes.
    Of course it is. As is logical.
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    eekeek Posts: 24,961
    FF43 said:

    Wouldn't that cut both ways? If the EU creates rules/supports industries that we believe give them an unfair advantage, we could impose tariffs on them?

    https://twitter.com/DavidGHFrost/status/1276158485743439873?s=20

    Hmm. The one way to avoid that unforeseeable risk of arbitrary treatment is for both sides to sign up permanently to common rule, in effect for the UK io commit to EU rules. I wonder what Frost's intention is?
    I don't think he is bright enough to understand what he is talking about.

    My evidence for the above - he is working for Boris.
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    oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,831

    Unprecedented scenes on PB as a thread on the Lib Dems is overshadowed by events.....

    Who?
    I forget....
    Sadly Moron is my MP - so it is hard to avoid her jumping up and down attention-seeking
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,721

    isam said:

    Superficially the sacking of RLB looks harsh, but it my guess is that Starmer has put the shadow cabinet under a warning that anything that can be perceived as anti-semitic will result in an instant dismissal, so she's had to go. Her crime is fairly minor: praising an article about a socialist actor. As others have said, there is a danger that absolutely any criticism of the Israeli state (including its Secret Service) is taken as ipso facto anti-semitic. We can criticise Putin without criticising the Russian people. Israel perhaps should be a special case, about which we need to be especially careful, but the Israeli government and its agencies must not be beyond criticism.

    So although RLB had to go, and Starmer is right, I would rather she had gone for her poor performance as shadow Education Secretary. She has failed to hold to account effectively the manifest failings of Williamson and Johnson on the return to school fiasco.

    It does contrast sharply with Jenrick, who despite the defence of some on here should clearly be out of the cabinet for many reasons. The fact that the public don't really care is irrelevant, and signifies governance by publicity rather than by principle. This will end up backfiring on the PM.

    This could do for Starmer what sacking Emily Thornberry did for Ed Miliband
    Remind me how Miliband did at the subsequent GE...
    He was wrong to sack her, Ed M that is.
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    BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Superficially the sacking of RLB looks harsh, but it my guess is that Starmer has put the shadow cabinet under a warning that anything that can be perceived as anti-semitic will result in an instant dismissal, so she's had to go. Her crime is fairly minor: praising an article about a socialist actor. As others have said, there is a danger that absolutely any criticism of the Israeli state (including its Secret Service) is taken as ipso facto anti-semitic. We can criticise Putin without criticising the Russian people. Israel perhaps should be a special case, about which we need to be especially careful, but the Israeli government and its agencies must not be beyond criticism.

    So although RLB had to go, and Starmer is right, I would rather she had gone for her poor performance as shadow Education Secretary. She has failed to hold to account effectively the manifest failings of Williamson and Johnson on the return to school fiasco.

    It does contrast sharply with Jenrick, who despite the defence of some on here should clearly be out of the cabinet for many reasons. The fact that the public don't really care is irrelevant, and signifies governance by publicity rather than by principle. This will end up backfiring on the PM.

    She has been invisible on schools. I was just thinking that the other day.

    The sacking for this might as you say be good politics. It probably is. I do hope so because on its own it looks to me unwarranted.
    Unwarranted? Unwarranted?

    And you wonder why I attacked RLB (even if hyperbolically) for being an anti-Semite!!!!

    Maybe I should start my own list of things you have said like you do for me, though most of them twisted.

    1: Sacking RLB was unwarranted.
    Yes I'm OK with that.

    In the sense of this "offence" rather than the wider context of Starmer wanting a clause 4 moment.

    There was a discussion earlier about how sometimes juries decide based on a vista broader than the case in front of them.

    This was similar.
    The Clause 4 moment he needs it getting rid of high ranking members of the previous leadership from the party completely. RLB's retweeting is nothing compared to statements/behaviour from Corbyn and many of his clique. Yes, she has done it today - so is the immediate target.

    Once the EHRC report comes out, people have to be expelled - and that includes big names. Not allowed to resign. Expelled. No matter who they were.

    That is the Clause 4 moment that might help. Today isn't that moment
    Indeed. Not least because ... who appointed Long-Bailey to the Shadow Cabinet in the first place, despite full and complete knowledge of her political attitudes? It wasn't, er, Keir Starmer, was it?
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    eekeek Posts: 24,961
    tlg86 said:

    IanB2 said:

    tlg86 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Major incident declared in Bournemouth, suffering hugely from a massive influx of visitors and with incidents of violence.

    Interesting. Looking at traffic on Google Maps, the road along the coast from Worthing to Brighton looks jammed.
    Gridlock around the town, more parking tickets issued than on any single day previously, refuse collectors emptying beachside bins need security guards after previous abuse and assaults. It sounds like chaos down there,
    My family have gone to Littlehampton today - that tends to be a bit better than the bigger resorts - but I'll report back if there was any trouble there.
    We went to Redcar last night even at 18:30 it was very busy.
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    CatManCatMan Posts: 2,768


    What with Burnley welders and senior Labour politicians being sacked for perfectly legal comms we are getting like that Peep Show episode where they were all trying to get each other sectioned.

    Are you trying to section me? Cos if you are I'll section you.
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    oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,831
    Should the BBC be pulling Maxine Peake's episode of Talking Heads from all platforms?
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    FF43 said:

    ..mass movements democratically accountable to their members.

    Thanks for that gem. I laughed out loud.
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    BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556
    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Superficially the sacking of RLB looks harsh, but it my guess is that Starmer has put the shadow cabinet under a warning that anything that can be perceived as anti-semitic will result in an instant dismissal, so she's had to go. Her crime is fairly minor: praising an article about a socialist actor. As others have said, there is a danger that absolutely any criticism of the Israeli state (including its Secret Service) is taken as ipso facto anti-semitic. We can criticise Putin without criticising the Russian people. Israel perhaps should be a special case, about which we need to be especially careful, but the Israeli government and its agencies must not be beyond criticism.

    So although RLB had to go, and Starmer is right, I would rather she had gone for her poor performance as shadow Education Secretary. She has failed to hold to account effectively the manifest failings of Williamson and Johnson on the return to school fiasco.

    It does contrast sharply with Jenrick, who despite the defence of some on here should clearly be out of the cabinet for many reasons. The fact that the public don't really care is irrelevant, and signifies governance by publicity rather than by principle. This will end up backfiring on the PM.

    She has been invisible on schools. I was just thinking that the other day.

    The sacking for this might as you say be good politics. It probably is. I do hope so because on its own it looks to me unwarranted.
    Unwarranted? Losing your job for expressing your political beliefs seems to be all the rage these days...
    There’s the false equivalence again. If we were to outlaw that I'm not sure where it would leave you.

    Considerably quieter certainly.
    You can repeat your 'false equivalence' mantra a thousand times, and it still won't be true.

    Nice for the far left to get a taste of their cancel culture for once though, and even nicer for it to actually be merited too!
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    contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    IanB2 said:

    Major incident declared in Bournemouth, suffering hugely from a massive influx of visitors and with incidents of violence.

    The Johnson government is staggering from one enormous b8lls-up to the next.

    The latest is the extension of furlough. Johnson and Sunak boasted it was amongst the most generous scheme in the world.

    Looking at Bournemouth today, they are not wrong.
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    nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    Apparently RLB refused to remove the tweet and that’s why KS sacked her . Regardless of the rights or wrongs of his decision I doubt the RLB is gone helpline will be inundated with calls !
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,961
    Is there anything Mossad can't do? We should get those guys in and replace MI5.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,914
    Alistair said:



    The voter study I saw had Black women going 98% Hilary. They had a * next to how many voted for Trump. I don't think it was zero but it was unmeasurably low. Black men went 14% Trump.

    You mean Diamond and Silk are unrepresentative :o ?!
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    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,709
    Surrey said:

    WTF is the government trying to achieve with "air bridges"? If an AB is created to a country, will ABs then be created to all other countries it has at least some open (or more or less open) border-crossings with, and so on, down the line?

    Or will it be a case of you can fly to France and then drive to Italy and on to Slovenia, and back through Italy to France to catch a flight back, without going in to quarantine back in Blighty, but you can't fly from Blighty to Slovenia?

    WTF is the government trying to achieve with "air bridges"? The government hopes the air bridges will somehow make redundant yet another clusterfuck policy it didn't think through, so they don't have to cancel the wretched thing.
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    Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 13,781

    Scott_xP said:
    Starmer is no Tony Blair. He is barely even a Bryan Gould
    I personally find him a good deal less irritating than Tony Blair, so good try, but zero for attainment.

    Johnson, on the other hand, who is "leader" (I use that word advisedly) of the party I was once an activist for, is no Cameron, no Major, no Thatcher, no Heath, no Macmillan, no Douglas-Home, and definitely definitely NO Winston Churchill. He struggles to hold a candle to poor old Theresa May. He is without a doubt the worst and most clueless PM in modern political history.
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    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,187
    tlg86 said:

    So is the notion that the Israeli army trains the US police in restraint techniques

    1. A fact

    2. Tin foil hat twaddle

    ????

    It doesn't matter. The fact is only being discussed because it is Israel.
    You make a good point with this as I said earlier. But imo it does matter somewhat whether it is true or a complete fabrication or something in between.
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    TresTres Posts: 2,220

    Unprecedented scenes on PB as a thread on the Lib Dems is overshadowed by events.....

    Who?
    I forget....
    Sadly Moron is my MP - so it is hard to avoid her jumping up and down attention-seeking
    jut goes to show the difference between hard working liberals and the often invisible MPs in the Tory and Labour parties.
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    isamisam Posts: 40,915
    It's meant to piss down at the weekend though

    https://twitter.com/StanCollymore/status/1276155862227222530?s=20
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,520

    Reply to Mr Thompson (the number of nested quotes was getting out of hand).

    Interesting you mention “taking the knee” as a symbol. In the original context of American Football the act is one performed by quarterbacks in games all the time, so the phrase has a resonance to Americans that far fewer in the wider world would get. Would you say it still has the symbolism of an act used to run down the clock at the end of a half when your team is winning, or has the meaning changed now?

    In that context the symbolism is of the leader, on the field, calling for a temporary cessation of hostilities (any subsequent rough play will be penalised).
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    Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 13,781

    IanB2 said:

    Major incident declared in Bournemouth, suffering hugely from a massive influx of visitors and with incidents of violence.

    The Johnson government is staggering from one enormous b8lls-up to the next.

    The latest is the extension of furlough. Johnson and Sunak boasted it was amongst the most generous scheme in the world.

    Looking at Bournemouth today, they are not wrong.
    lol !
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    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,187

    No fan of left wingers like RLB and I am not sure she is up to being Shadow Education Secretary (an important job ) but to cancel her for this is a bit steep imo. It does show we have turned into a very juvenile political land where a slight off message tweet or re tweet will get you sacked. Isn't the job of a politician to have opinions or at least facilitate debate. ? Keir Starmer certainly did with his kneeling - If it was to support BLM well they do have some funny opinions about stuff themselves so he is in danger of being asked why he sacked RLB but he is endorsing all types of extreme stuff with BLM agendas.

    Long-Bailey's defence was that she supported the thrust of the argument, which said that we need to destroy capitalism and that anyone who supported Starmer but not Corbyn was a Tory.
    All of which was fine apparently! She'd be still in place if that were all it was.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,914
    The last show I remember Maxine being in was err... "Three Girls".......
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    eekeek Posts: 24,961
    Scott_xP said:
    A polite way to say - Not while Boris is PM
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    Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 13,781
    Scott_xP said:
    Hopefully he is on manoeuvres. A man that can actually run a complex department would be a major improvement on a man that couldn't organise the proverbial drinks party
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    justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    edited June 2020
    It depends on how the Corbynites decide to play it.Some might decide that just as the PLP sought to destabilise Corbyn, they can now return the favour by seeking to do the same to Starmer.I am sure that the thresholds of 22 MPs and 5% of CLPs would be achievable , should they wish to go down that road. Others in their ranks may be inclined to hold off until next year.
    I imagine that McCluskey et al still support RLB.
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    SurreySurrey Posts: 190
    edited June 2020
    FF43 said:

    Surrey said:

    WTF is the government trying to achieve with "air bridges"? If an AB is created to a country, will ABs then be created to all other countries it has at least some open (or more or less open) border-crossings with, and so on, down the line?

    Or will it be a case of you can fly to France and then drive to Italy and on to Slovenia, and back through Italy to France to catch a flight back, without going in to quarantine back in Blighty, but you can't fly from Blighty to Slovenia?

    WTF is the government trying to achieve with "air bridges"? The government hopes the air bridges will somehow make redundant yet another clusterfuck policy it didn't think through, so they don't have to cancel the wretched thing.
    If it made the policy a completely dead letter it wouldn't be so bad. But I may decide not to go to the countries I want to visit this summer if I'd be expected to stay indoors for a fortnight when I got back.

    Besides, is approaching non-family members at closer than 1 or 2 metres banned in Ibiza?
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    Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 13,781
    isam said:

    It's meant to piss down at the weekend though

    https://twitter.com/StanCollymore/status/1276155862227222530?s=20

    They all came on a day trip from Barnard Castle via Specsavers
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    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,885
    eek said:

    A polite way to say - Not while Boris is PM

    Exactly
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    oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,831
    justin124 said:

    It depends on how the Corbynites decide to play it.Some might decide that just as the PLP sought to destabilise Corbyn, they can now return the favour by seeking to do the same to Starmer.I am sure that the thresholds of 22 MPs and 5% of CLPs would be achievable , should they wish to go down that road. Others in their ranks may be inclined to hold off until next year.
    I imagine that McCluskey et al still support RLB.

    Who is going to lay down their political life to support RLB?
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    eekeek Posts: 24,961
    It won't solve anything at a time when the Government needs money itself.
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    MattWMattW Posts: 18,481
    edited June 2020
    ..
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    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,350
    edited June 2020

    Unprecedented scenes on PB as a thread on the Lib Dems is overshadowed by events.....

    Who?
    Some political party in the back of a black cab driven by an Albanian...
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Alasdair_ said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Rust belt loves Biden

    https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1276163193786818572

    Ohio and Iowa might be in play if those are accurate. Indiana isn't going to be called at the top of the night either.

    These polls look good for Biden, but are they filtered to exclude those who won't vote?

    So are these polls of Registered voters who are 100% certain to vote?
    Apparently Likely Voters

    Armageddon level event if True.
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    Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 13,781

    justin124 said:

    It depends on how the Corbynites decide to play it.Some might decide that just as the PLP sought to destabilise Corbyn, they can now return the favour by seeking to do the same to Starmer.I am sure that the thresholds of 22 MPs and 5% of CLPs would be achievable , should they wish to go down that road. Others in their ranks may be inclined to hold off until next year.
    I imagine that McCluskey et al still support RLB.

    Who is going to lay down their political life to support RLB?
    Lets hope it is Jeremy Corbyn, oh hang on he did that for himself!
  • Options
    justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    justin124 said:

    It depends on how the Corbynites decide to play it.Some might decide that just as the PLP sought to destabilise Corbyn, they can now return the favour by seeking to do the same to Starmer.I am sure that the thresholds of 22 MPs and 5% of CLPs would be achievable , should they wish to go down that road. Others in their ranks may be inclined to hold off until next year.
    I imagine that McCluskey et al still support RLB.

    Who is going to lay down their political life to support RLB?
    I am not a fan at all - but she was the standard bearer of the Corbynite wing in the Leadership Election. Will those who supported her have changed their minds?
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,721
    A politician trying to defend themselves on the grounds they supported the thrust of a piece but not everything in it, will fall afoul of the 'wouldnt accept that defence from an opponent' syndrome.
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    oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,831
    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    It depends on how the Corbynites decide to play it.Some might decide that just as the PLP sought to destabilise Corbyn, they can now return the favour by seeking to do the same to Starmer.I am sure that the thresholds of 22 MPs and 5% of CLPs would be achievable , should they wish to go down that road. Others in their ranks may be inclined to hold off until next year.
    I imagine that McCluskey et al still support RLB.

    Who is going to lay down their political life to support RLB?
    I am not a fan at all - but she was the standard bearer of the Corbynite wing in the Leadership Election. Will those who supported her have changed their minds?
    She isn't the sort of personality to inspire self-sacrifice. They might support her with a tweet or two and being generally outraged. But they won't take action
  • Options
    DougSealDougSeal Posts: 11,135
    edited June 2020

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Superficially the sacking of RLB looks harsh, but it my guess is that Starmer has put the shadow cabinet under a warning that anything that can be perceived as anti-semitic will result in an instant dismissal, so she's had to go. Her crime is fairly minor: praising an article about a socialist actor. As others have said, there is a danger that absolutely any criticism of the Israeli state (including its Secret Service) is taken as ipso facto anti-semitic. We can criticise Putin without criticising the Russian people. Israel perhaps should be a special case, about which we need to be especially careful, but the Israeli government and its agencies must not be beyond criticism.

    So although RLB had to go, and Starmer is right, I would rather she had gone for her poor performance as shadow Education Secretary. She has failed to hold to account effectively the manifest failings of Williamson and Johnson on the return to school fiasco.

    It does contrast sharply with Jenrick, who despite the defence of some on here should clearly be out of the cabinet for many reasons. The fact that the public don't really care is irrelevant, and signifies governance by publicity rather than by principle. This will end up backfiring on the PM.

    She has been invisible on schools. I was just thinking that the other day.

    The sacking for this might as you say be good politics. It probably is. I do hope so because on its own it looks to me unwarranted.
    Unwarranted? Losing your job for expressing your political beliefs seems to be all the rage these days...
    There’s the false equivalence again. If we were to outlaw that I'm not sure where it would leave you.

    Considerably quieter certainly.
    You can repeat your 'false equivalence' mantra a thousand times, and it still won't be true.

    Nice for the far left to get a taste of their cancel culture for once though, and even nicer for it to actually be merited too!
    What no one on this board ever quite seems to grasp is that being fired from a job is not often about guilt or innocence. That’s for the criminal law. People “being fired for their political beliefs” are generally being fired because the manner in which those beliefs are expressed causes repetitional harm to the employer.

    The Burnley fan with the plane banner was fired, not because of his beliefs, but because his employer perceived that the adverse publicity generated by his actions was bad for business. That is a potentially fair dismissal. Similarly, Starmer felt that RBL was bad for the Labour Party, more specifically his leadership of it. Cummings should have been fired, not because of what he did, which would likely not have merited dismissal in most “civilian” cases, but the damage the publicity was causing Johnson - that’s why I was delighted he stayed. People being fired for social media posts that are perceived to bring the employer into disrepute are 10 a penny these days.

    Even in most misconduct cases, all an employer has to do is have reasonable belief that the employee has committed misconduct, not absolute proof. If two people have access to a short till and your investigation cannot decide which of them did it you can justify firing them both. Not “fair” on the innocent employee but that type of fairness is not what it’s about.
  • Options
    justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    edited June 2020

    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    It depends on how the Corbynites decide to play it.Some might decide that just as the PLP sought to destabilise Corbyn, they can now return the favour by seeking to do the same to Starmer.I am sure that the thresholds of 22 MPs and 5% of CLPs would be achievable , should they wish to go down that road. Others in their ranks may be inclined to hold off until next year.
    I imagine that McCluskey et al still support RLB.

    Who is going to lay down their political life to support RLB?
    I am not a fan at all - but she was the standard bearer of the Corbynite wing in the Leadership Election. Will those who supported her have changed their minds?
    She isn't the sort of personality to inspire self-sacrifice. They might support her with a tweet or two and being generally outraged. But they won't take action
    But a few months ago many did support her.How is self-sacrifice involved when those who might rally behind her have retired from the FrontBench - McDonnell et al - or been dropped - Burgon , Butler, Lavery et al.?
  • Options
    squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,340

    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    It depends on how the Corbynites decide to play it.Some might decide that just as the PLP sought to destabilise Corbyn, they can now return the favour by seeking to do the same to Starmer.I am sure that the thresholds of 22 MPs and 5% of CLPs would be achievable , should they wish to go down that road. Others in their ranks may be inclined to hold off until next year.
    I imagine that McCluskey et al still support RLB.

    Who is going to lay down their political life to support RLB?
    I am not a fan at all - but she was the standard bearer of the Corbynite wing in the Leadership Election. Will those who supported her have changed their minds?
    She isn't the sort of personality to inspire self-sacrifice. They might support her with a tweet or two and being generally outraged. But they won't take action

    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    It depends on how the Corbynites decide to play it.Some might decide that just as the PLP sought to destabilise Corbyn, they can now return the favour by seeking to do the same to Starmer.I am sure that the thresholds of 22 MPs and 5% of CLPs would be achievable , should they wish to go down that road. Others in their ranks may be inclined to hold off until next year.
    I imagine that McCluskey et al still support RLB.

    Who is going to lay down their political life to support RLB?
    I am not a fan at all - but she was the standard bearer of the Corbynite wing in the Leadership Election. Will those who supported her have changed their minds?
    She isn't the sort of personality to inspire self-sacrifice. They might support her with a tweet or two and being generally outraged. But they won't take action
    Wonderful to see the odious Long bailey sacked. The hard left will be dealt

    with by KS that is clear
    Is Nick Palmer safe ?
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 24,961
    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    It depends on how the Corbynites decide to play it.Some might decide that just as the PLP sought to destabilise Corbyn, they can now return the favour by seeking to do the same to Starmer.I am sure that the thresholds of 22 MPs and 5% of CLPs would be achievable , should they wish to go down that road. Others in their ranks may be inclined to hold off until next year.
    I imagine that McCluskey et al still support RLB.

    Who is going to lay down their political life to support RLB?
    I am not a fan at all - but she was the standard bearer of the Corbynite wing in the Leadership Election. Will those who supported her have changed their minds?
    She isn't the sort of personality to inspire self-sacrifice. They might support her with a tweet or two and being generally outraged. But they won't take action
    But a few months ago many did support her.
    Only because she was the just about the only horse left to hold the leftwing flag during the leadership context.

    The left's great hope wasn't elected so couldn't stand for the leadership.
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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    eek said:

    It won't solve anything at a time when the Government needs money itself.
    The Government doesn't need money, the Government can borrow at effectively 0% interest and can print money. The Government needs a tax base and that means saving otherwise healthy businesses from going bust due to the mother of all externality shocks.

    Businesses desperately need money. The Government needs businesses to not go bust.

    A VAT cut can help struggling businesses even if consumers don't spend more simply by businesses charging the same price as they did pre-cut and consumers spend the same as they did pre-cut. The business pockets the tax cut and stays afloat and is able to continue to employ people and pay taxes via PAYE. The business stays afloat and is able to continue to pay NNDR. The business stays afloat and is able to continue to pay VAT.
  • Options
    RandallFlaggRandallFlagg Posts: 1,157
    Perhaps Richard Burgon will decide to do a Tony Benn/Owen Smith, and challenge Starmer for the leadership? I do so hope he does... it will make his campaign for deputy leadership look sane and sensible by comparison.
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    oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,831
    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    It depends on how the Corbynites decide to play it.Some might decide that just as the PLP sought to destabilise Corbyn, they can now return the favour by seeking to do the same to Starmer.I am sure that the thresholds of 22 MPs and 5% of CLPs would be achievable , should they wish to go down that road. Others in their ranks may be inclined to hold off until next year.
    I imagine that McCluskey et al still support RLB.

    Who is going to lay down their political life to support RLB?
    I am not a fan at all - but she was the standard bearer of the Corbynite wing in the Leadership Election. Will those who supported her have changed their minds?
    She isn't the sort of personality to inspire self-sacrifice. They might support her with a tweet or two and being generally outraged. But they won't take action
    But a few months ago many did support her.
    Did they support her because of who she is or did they support her because she was the anointed one? My suspicion is more of the latter rather than the former. She was the Corbynite candidate - so she was supported because of that label rather than for any real enthusiasm for her as an individual
  • Options
    Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,059
    eek said:

    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    It depends on how the Corbynites decide to play it.Some might decide that just as the PLP sought to destabilise Corbyn, they can now return the favour by seeking to do the same to Starmer.I am sure that the thresholds of 22 MPs and 5% of CLPs would be achievable , should they wish to go down that road. Others in their ranks may be inclined to hold off until next year.
    I imagine that McCluskey et al still support RLB.

    Who is going to lay down their political life to support RLB?
    I am not a fan at all - but she was the standard bearer of the Corbynite wing in the Leadership Election. Will those who supported her have changed their minds?
    She isn't the sort of personality to inspire self-sacrifice. They might support her with a tweet or two and being generally outraged. But they won't take action
    But a few months ago many did support her.
    Only because she was the just about the only horse left to hold the leftwing flag during the leadership context.

    The left's great hope wasn't elected so couldn't stand for the leadership.
    Chris 'Minister for Truth' Williamson?
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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
  • Options
    oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,831
    Does refusing to talk to some of your MPs make you look strong or unwilling to engage with those with questions/concerns?
  • Options
    Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,059
    Talking of which - he's solidly behind 'RBL'

    https://twitter.com/DerbyChrisW/status/1276174333682032641?s=20
  • Options

    Does refusing to talk to some of your MPs make you look strong or unwilling to engage with those with questions/concerns?
    Strong as the public hate the hard left
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    justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    It depends on how the Corbynites decide to play it.Some might decide that just as the PLP sought to destabilise Corbyn, they can now return the favour by seeking to do the same to Starmer.I am sure that the thresholds of 22 MPs and 5% of CLPs would be achievable , should they wish to go down that road. Others in their ranks may be inclined to hold off until next year.
    I imagine that McCluskey et al still support RLB.

    Who is going to lay down their political life to support RLB?
    I am not a fan at all - but she was the standard bearer of the Corbynite wing in the Leadership Election. Will those who supported her have changed their minds?
    She isn't the sort of personality to inspire self-sacrifice. They might support her with a tweet or two and being generally outraged. But they won't take action
    But a few months ago many did support her.
    Did they support her because of who she is or did they support her because she was the anointed one? My suspicion is more of the latter rather than the former. She was the Corbynite candidate - so she was supported because of that label rather than for any real enthusiasm for her as an individual
    Very likely so - but that might still hold true.
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    eekeek Posts: 24,961

    eek said:

    It won't solve anything at a time when the Government needs money itself.
    The Government doesn't need money, the Government can borrow at effectively 0% interest and can print money. The Government needs a tax base and that means saving otherwise healthy businesses from going bust due to the mother of all externality shocks.

    Businesses desperately need money. The Government needs businesses to not go bust.

    A VAT cut can help struggling businesses even if consumers don't spend more simply by businesses charging the same price as they did pre-cut and consumers spend the same as they did pre-cut. The business pockets the tax cut and stays afloat and is able to continue to employ people and pay taxes via PAYE. The business stays afloat and is able to continue to pay NNDR. The business stays afloat and is able to continue to pay VAT.
    A short term cut of 2.5% or even 5% isn't going encourage companies to employ more people, it will simply increase the bottom line.
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    It depends on how the Corbynites decide to play it.Some might decide that just as the PLP sought to destabilise Corbyn, they can now return the favour by seeking to do the same to Starmer.I am sure that the thresholds of 22 MPs and 5% of CLPs would be achievable , should they wish to go down that road. Others in their ranks may be inclined to hold off until next year.
    I imagine that McCluskey et al still support RLB.

    Who is going to lay down their political life to support RLB?
    I am not a fan at all - but she was the standard bearer of the Corbynite wing in the Leadership Election. Will those who supported her have changed their minds?
    She isn't the sort of personality to inspire self-sacrifice. They might support her with a tweet or two and being generally outraged. But they won't take action

    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    It depends on how the Corbynites decide to play it.Some might decide that just as the PLP sought to destabilise Corbyn, they can now return the favour by seeking to do the same to Starmer.I am sure that the thresholds of 22 MPs and 5% of CLPs would be achievable , should they wish to go down that road. Others in their ranks may be inclined to hold off until next year.
    I imagine that McCluskey et al still support RLB.

    Who is going to lay down their political life to support RLB?
    I am not a fan at all - but she was the standard bearer of the Corbynite wing in the Leadership Election. Will those who supported her have changed their minds?
    She isn't the sort of personality to inspire self-sacrifice. They might support her with a tweet or two and being generally outraged. But they won't take action
    Wonderful to see the odious Long bailey sacked. The hard left will be dealt

    with by KS that is clear
    Is Nick Palmer safe ?
    Nick Palmer is a chameleon. A party yesman to the party leader. When Blair was in charge he was a Blairite, when Brown was in charge he was a Brownite, when Corbyn was in charge he was a Corbynista. He's safe.
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    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,137
    justin124 said:

    It depends on how the Corbynites decide to play it.Some might decide that just as the PLP sought to destabilise Corbyn, they can now return the favour by seeking to do the same to Starmer.I am sure that the thresholds of 22 MPs and 5% of CLPs would be achievable , should they wish to go down that road. Others in their ranks may be inclined to hold off until next year.
    I imagine that McCluskey et al still support RLB.

    However they play it Starmer's Christmases have all come at once. Long-Bailey is a pain in the arse that wound up in the shadow cabinet as a vanquished opponent.

    I suspect if McCluskey wanted a me or him, high profile fight to the death with Starmer, Starmer would be comfortable with that. It is probably a fight this far out from a GE that could end up raising Starmer and the party's stock.
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    eekeek Posts: 24,961

    Does refusing to talk to some of your MPs make you look strong or unwilling to engage with those with questions/concerns?
    It shows you have better things to do with your time.

    Sometimes the best thing to do is to shut up - accept the punishment and wait for a chance to return. Sadly for RLB I don't that day will return which is why everyone is screaming now.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,721
    What would be the point? It's done. Could a fun dust up though.
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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    eek said:

    eek said:

    It won't solve anything at a time when the Government needs money itself.
    The Government doesn't need money, the Government can borrow at effectively 0% interest and can print money. The Government needs a tax base and that means saving otherwise healthy businesses from going bust due to the mother of all externality shocks.

    Businesses desperately need money. The Government needs businesses to not go bust.

    A VAT cut can help struggling businesses even if consumers don't spend more simply by businesses charging the same price as they did pre-cut and consumers spend the same as they did pre-cut. The business pockets the tax cut and stays afloat and is able to continue to employ people and pay taxes via PAYE. The business stays afloat and is able to continue to pay NNDR. The business stays afloat and is able to continue to pay VAT.
    A short term cut of 2.5% or even 5% isn't going encourage companies to employ more people, it will simply increase the bottom line.
    *blinks rapidly trying to think how to respond*

    You do realise that's the same thing don't you?

    If companies don't have a healthy bottom line they contract or worse go out of business and sack their staff. If companies have a healthy bottom line they can expand and hire staff. Increasing the bottom line is a Good Thing and what we need to save the economy from cardiac arrest.
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    DougSealDougSeal Posts: 11,135

    Does refusing to talk to some of your MPs make you look strong or unwilling to engage with those with questions/concerns?
    Starmer fired RBL. Johnson kept Cummings and Jenrick. There’s a definite contrast. The public will make of it what they will.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,052

    Talking of which - he's solidly behind 'RBL'

    https://twitter.com/DerbyChrisW/status/1276174333682032641?s=20

    Pastor Niemöller's words come to mind?

    "First they came for the antisemites, and I did speak out, because I was an antisemite."
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,612
    FF43 said:

    Wouldn't that cut both ways? If the EU creates rules/supports industries that we believe give them an unfair advantage, we could impose tariffs on them?

    https://twitter.com/DavidGHFrost/status/1276158485743439873?s=20

    Hmm. The one way to avoid that unforeseeable risk of arbitrary treatment is for both sides to sign up permanently to common rules, in effect for the UK io commit to EU rules. I wonder what Frost's intention is?
    I wonder if he's got the "we want a deal" memo from Number 10?
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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    DougSeal said:

    Does refusing to talk to some of your MPs make you look strong or unwilling to engage with those with questions/concerns?
    Starmer fired RBL. Johnson kept Cummings and Jenrick. There’s a definite contrast. The public will make of it what they will.
    Starmer had an antisemite in his cabinet to sack, Johnson did not.
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    DougSealDougSeal Posts: 11,135

    DougSeal said:

    Does refusing to talk to some of your MPs make you look strong or unwilling to engage with those with questions/concerns?
    Starmer fired RBL. Johnson kept Cummings and Jenrick. There’s a definite contrast. The public will make of it what they will.
    Starmer had an antisemite in his cabinet to sack, Johnson did not.
    Not quite the point but if that’s your takeaway I’ll let you keep it.
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    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,137

    Does refusing to talk to some of your MPs make you look strong or unwilling to engage with those with questions/concerns?
    Unwilling to engage with hopeless idiots who do not listen. Hmmm?
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    SurreySurrey Posts: 190

    isam said:

    It's meant to piss down at the weekend though

    https://twitter.com/StanCollymore/status/1276155862227222530?s=20

    They all came on a day trip from Barnard Castle via Specsavers
    But at least the air bridge destinations will be chosen from places much quieter than notoriously raucous Bournemouth - places where social distancing will always be respected, such as Ibiza at the height of summer.

    Meanwhile literally dozens of US Secret Service personnel have had to go into quarantine after protecting Donald Trump in Tulsa.

    A cautious half-release from the lockdown ("we're so clever at details because we always follow the Science") which is interpreted by large numbers of people as a full release doesn't seem to be a policy that will last for long.
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    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,187
    edited June 2020

    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    It depends on how the Corbynites decide to play it.Some might decide that just as the PLP sought to destabilise Corbyn, they can now return the favour by seeking to do the same to Starmer.I am sure that the thresholds of 22 MPs and 5% of CLPs would be achievable , should they wish to go down that road. Others in their ranks may be inclined to hold off until next year.
    I imagine that McCluskey et al still support RLB.

    Who is going to lay down their political life to support RLB?
    I am not a fan at all - but she was the standard bearer of the Corbynite wing in the Leadership Election. Will those who supported her have changed their minds?
    She isn't the sort of personality to inspire self-sacrifice. They might support her with a tweet or two and being generally outraged. But they won't take action

    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    It depends on how the Corbynites decide to play it.Some might decide that just as the PLP sought to destabilise Corbyn, they can now return the favour by seeking to do the same to Starmer.I am sure that the thresholds of 22 MPs and 5% of CLPs would be achievable , should they wish to go down that road. Others in their ranks may be inclined to hold off until next year.
    I imagine that McCluskey et al still support RLB.

    Who is going to lay down their political life to support RLB?
    I am not a fan at all - but she was the standard bearer of the Corbynite wing in the Leadership Election. Will those who supported her have changed their minds?
    She isn't the sort of personality to inspire self-sacrifice. They might support her with a tweet or two and being generally outraged. But they won't take action
    Wonderful to see the odious Long bailey sacked. The hard left will be dealt

    with by KS that is clear
    Is Nick Palmer safe ?
    Nick Palmer is a chameleon. A party yesman to the party leader. When Blair was in charge he was a Blairite, when Brown was in charge he was a Brownite, when Corbyn was in charge he was a Corbynista. He's safe.
    It's a little easier to stick rigidly at all times to dozens of written-in-stone principles when blitzing away on the internet than it is when you are an MP for one of the main parties. So "loyalist" would imo be better here than "chameleon".
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    Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,059
    *** RESIGNATION WATCH *****

    Lord Falconer surely the first to resign if true?

    https://twitter.com/patrickkmaguire/status/1276186580496121858?s=20
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    SurreySurrey Posts: 190

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Superficially the sacking of RLB looks harsh, but it my guess is that Starmer has put the shadow cabinet under a warning that anything that can be perceived as anti-semitic will result in an instant dismissal, so she's had to go. Her crime is fairly minor: praising an article about a socialist actor. As others have said, there is a danger that absolutely any criticism of the Israeli state (including its Secret Service) is taken as ipso facto anti-semitic. We can criticise Putin without criticising the Russian people. Israel perhaps should be a special case, about which we need to be especially careful, but the Israeli government and its agencies must not be beyond criticism.

    So although RLB had to go, and Starmer is right, I would rather she had gone for her poor performance as shadow Education Secretary. She has failed to hold to account effectively the manifest failings of Williamson and Johnson on the return to school fiasco.

    It does contrast sharply with Jenrick, who despite the defence of some on here should clearly be out of the cabinet for many reasons. The fact that the public don't really care is irrelevant, and signifies governance by publicity rather than by principle. This will end up backfiring on the PM.

    She has been invisible on schools. I was just thinking that the other day.

    The sacking for this might as you say be good politics. It probably is. I do hope so because on its own it looks to me unwarranted.
    Unwarranted? Losing your job for expressing your political beliefs seems to be all the rage these days...
    There’s the false equivalence again. If we were to outlaw that I'm not sure where it would leave you.

    Considerably quieter certainly.
    You can repeat your 'false equivalence' mantra a thousand times, and it still won't be true.

    Nice for the far left to get a taste of their cancel culture for once though, and even nicer for it to actually be merited too!
    When was the last time you thought somebody on the far left merited promotion?
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    BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,988
    Latest data
    R now about 0.87. Uncomfortably close to 1. Cases halve every five weeks.



  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,350
    UK cases is 1,118

    England Regional case data, by specimen date -

    image
    image
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    eekeek Posts: 24,961
    edited June 2020

    eek said:

    eek said:

    It won't solve anything at a time when the Government needs money itself.
    The Government doesn't need money, the Government can borrow at effectively 0% interest and can print money. The Government needs a tax base and that means saving otherwise healthy businesses from going bust due to the mother of all externality shocks.

    Businesses desperately need money. The Government needs businesses to not go bust.

    A VAT cut can help struggling businesses even if consumers don't spend more simply by businesses charging the same price as they did pre-cut and consumers spend the same as they did pre-cut. The business pockets the tax cut and stays afloat and is able to continue to employ people and pay taxes via PAYE. The business stays afloat and is able to continue to pay NNDR. The business stays afloat and is able to continue to pay VAT.
    A short term cut of 2.5% or even 5% isn't going encourage companies to employ more people, it will simply increase the bottom line.
    *blinks rapidly trying to think how to respond*

    You do realise that's the same thing don't you?

    If companies don't have a healthy bottom line they contract or worse go out of business and sack their staff. If companies have a healthy bottom line they can expand and hire staff. Increasing the bottom line is a Good Thing and what we need to save the economy from cardiac arrest.
    Nope. In theory a lot of people have a lot of excess cash waiting to be spent as for the past few months they haven't been spending (https://www.theguardian.com/money/2020/jun/02/uk-consumers-repay-record-74bn-of-debt-amid-covid-19-lockdown is as prime example of this). If that's the case there is no need to cut VAT, once shops are open the money should flow regardless.

    If come October / November you need to boost spending that would be the time to do a short term VAT cut but not immediately as in theory a lot of people have spare cash and in a lot of cases a desire to spend at least some of it.
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 24,961

    DougSeal said:

    Does refusing to talk to some of your MPs make you look strong or unwilling to engage with those with questions/concerns?
    Starmer fired RBL. Johnson kept Cummings and Jenrick. There’s a definite contrast. The public will make of it what they will.
    Starmer had an antisemite in his cabinet to sack, Johnson did not.
    Johnson has a corrupt official in his cabinet to sack, Starmer does not
    Jenkins didn't pocket the money himself, he did it for the good of the party as a whole.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,961
    Barnesian said:

    Latest data
    R now about 0.87. Uncomfortably close to 1. Cases halve every five weeks.



    Doesn't R tend to 1 when the case numbers drop to very low levels?
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    eekeek Posts: 24,961

    *** RESIGNATION WATCH *****

    Lord Falconer surely the first to resign if true?

    https://twitter.com/patrickkmaguire/status/1276186580496121858?s=20

    The sacking of a shadow minister for tweeting anti-semantic views would be a weird hill to die on...
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    As a former cultist, I say get the Corbynites out of the SC, if they are willing to do it themselves then fine.

    They had their chance, we lost two elections in a row.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,983
    Well done Sir Keir Starmer on his swift action in sacking Long-Bailey after she shared an anti Semitic post, a clear improvement on Corbyn
  • Options
    BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,988
    Just published.
    Ed Davey edges ahead in nominations

    I have nominated Ed Davey. I think he has a good track record on green investment and is generally sensible - not too woke - unlike Layla Moran. All the Lib Dem members I know, including Sarah Olney, are supporting Ed Davey. Yet Layla Moran remains favourite.
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,258
    eek said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    It won't solve anything at a time when the Government needs money itself.
    The Government doesn't need money, the Government can borrow at effectively 0% interest and can print money. The Government needs a tax base and that means saving otherwise healthy businesses from going bust due to the mother of all externality shocks.

    Businesses desperately need money. The Government needs businesses to not go bust.

    A VAT cut can help struggling businesses even if consumers don't spend more simply by businesses charging the same price as they did pre-cut and consumers spend the same as they did pre-cut. The business pockets the tax cut and stays afloat and is able to continue to employ people and pay taxes via PAYE. The business stays afloat and is able to continue to pay NNDR. The business stays afloat and is able to continue to pay VAT.
    A short term cut of 2.5% or even 5% isn't going encourage companies to employ more people, it will simply increase the bottom line.
    *blinks rapidly trying to think how to respond*

    You do realise that's the same thing don't you?

    If companies don't have a healthy bottom line they contract or worse go out of business and sack their staff. If companies have a healthy bottom line they can expand and hire staff. Increasing the bottom line is a Good Thing and what we need to save the economy from cardiac arrest.
    Nope. In theory a lot of people have a lot of excess cash waiting to be spent as for the past few months they haven't been spending (https://www.theguardian.com/money/2020/jun/02/uk-consumers-repay-record-74bn-of-debt-amid-covid-19-lockdown is as prime example of this). If that's the case there is no need to cut VAT, once shops are open the money should flow regardless.

    If come October / November you need to boost spending that would be the time to do a short term VAT cut but not immediately as in theory a lot of people have spare cash and in a lot of cases a desire to spend at least some of it.
    It definitely appears to be the case. In May a record amount was paid off UK credit card debt, and in the US the savings rate trebled. Although many are clearly facing financial challenge because of the crisis, there are enough people continuing to earn (directly or funded by the government) and less to spend it on to produce a net financial benefit to consumers in total.
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    humbuggerhumbugger Posts: 377
    Starmer sacking RLB summarily and brutally has surely put Angela Rayner in a very difficult position given her very close friendship with RLB.
  • Options
    Barnesian said:

    Just published.
    Ed Davey edges ahead in nominations

    I have nominated Ed Davey. I think he has a good track record on green investment and is generally sensible - not too woke - unlike Layla Moran. All the Lib Dem members I know, including Sarah Olney, are supporting Ed Davey. Yet Layla Moran remains favourite.

    If Davey wins, I foresee some kind of unofficial pact with Labour
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    humbugger said:

    Starmer sacking RLB summarily and brutally has surely put Angela Rayner in a very difficult position given her very close friendship with RLB.

    Although she's more of Starmer's persuasion than RLB's politically
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    justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    As a former cultist, I say get the Corbynites out of the SC, if they are willing to do it themselves then fine.

    They had their chance, we lost two elections in a row.

    So did the non-Corbynites in 2010 and 2015.
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    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,704

    *** RESIGNATION WATCH *****

    Lord Falconer surely the first to resign if true?

    https://twitter.com/patrickkmaguire/status/1276186580496121858?s=20

    Methinks a fight Starmer is looking for.
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    eekeek Posts: 24,961
    IanB2 said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    It won't solve anything at a time when the Government needs money itself.
    The Government doesn't need money, the Government can borrow at effectively 0% interest and can print money. The Government needs a tax base and that means saving otherwise healthy businesses from going bust due to the mother of all externality shocks.

    Businesses desperately need money. The Government needs businesses to not go bust.

    A VAT cut can help struggling businesses even if consumers don't spend more simply by businesses charging the same price as they did pre-cut and consumers spend the same as they did pre-cut. The business pockets the tax cut and stays afloat and is able to continue to employ people and pay taxes via PAYE. The business stays afloat and is able to continue to pay NNDR. The business stays afloat and is able to continue to pay VAT.
    A short term cut of 2.5% or even 5% isn't going encourage companies to employ more people, it will simply increase the bottom line.
    *blinks rapidly trying to think how to respond*

    You do realise that's the same thing don't you?

    If companies don't have a healthy bottom line they contract or worse go out of business and sack their staff. If companies have a healthy bottom line they can expand and hire staff. Increasing the bottom line is a Good Thing and what we need to save the economy from cardiac arrest.
    Nope. In theory a lot of people have a lot of excess cash waiting to be spent as for the past few months they haven't been spending (https://www.theguardian.com/money/2020/jun/02/uk-consumers-repay-record-74bn-of-debt-amid-covid-19-lockdown is as prime example of this). If that's the case there is no need to cut VAT, once shops are open the money should flow regardless.

    If come October / November you need to boost spending that would be the time to do a short term VAT cut but not immediately as in theory a lot of people have spare cash and in a lot of cases a desire to spend at least some of it.
    It definitely appears to be the case. In May a record amount was paid off UK credit card debt, and in the US the savings rate trebled. Although many are clearly facing financial challenge because of the crisis, there are enough people continuing to earn (directly or funded by the government) and less to spend it on to produce a net financial benefit to consumers in total.
    Yep, I'm not working at the moment but if I was 90% of my salary would be heading straight into a savings account as we are hardly spending anything.
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    oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,831
    Barnesian said:

    Just published.
    Ed Davey edges ahead in nominations

    I have nominated Ed Davey. I think he has a good track record on green investment and is generally sensible - not too woke - unlike Layla Moran. All the Lib Dem members I know, including Sarah Olney, are supporting Ed Davey. Yet Layla Moran remains favourite.

    Moran shouldn't be in the running at all.

    She had to take down a potentially actionable tweet this morning about Jenrick.

    And that is not the first twitter gaffe she has made in recent weeks.

    She would be a disastrous leader
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