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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » One of the reasons I’m not entirely confident on calling the P

SystemSystem Posts: 8,258
edited June 28 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » One of the reasons I’m not entirely confident on calling the Presidential election, because the people in this video have the vote

Like David Herdson I’m leaning towards thinking November’s Presidential election will be a comfortable Biden win, certainly that’s what the polling and Trump’s demeanour indicates, a lot of this has been driven by Covid-19 and the administration’s handling of it.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 29,154
    Surely not?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 34,876
    edited June 28
    Second like Trump in the 2016 popular vote
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 29,154

    First

    Sucker! :joy:
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 34,876
    LadyG said:

    BLM are doubling down despite the hue and cry



    Unwise, I think. Very unwise
    Well, we already know they hate Gandhi's peaceful methods of campaigning.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 29,154

    LadyG said:

    BLM are doubling down despite the hue and cry



    Unwise, I think. Very unwise
    Well, we already know they hate Gandhi's peaceful methods of campaigning.
    Not so much a salt march as assault marches?
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 1,589
    Those Americans are right. IF you are not 80 with at least two co-morbidities, you are OK. If if you are your chances of survival are greater than they were six weeks ago.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 4,891
    The question is, how much of Trumps vote is like this? It is very easy to find the nutters supporting a party/candidate.

    Any links to good opinion poll surveys of beliefs in US politics?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 46,935
    Donald Trump shares a video of a senior-citizen supporter from Florida yelling 'white power' during a golf-cart protest and calls the MAGA fans 'great people'

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8467959/Trump-posts-video-supporter-yelling-white-power-claims-stopped-statue-vandalism.html
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 29,154
    On topic, at the moment the Covid-19 numbers from the US are to put it mildly discouraging.

    The question is, who gets blamed? Trump, or state governors?

    Not that that would make a practical difference in say, Georgia.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 4,891

    Those Americans are right. IF you are not 80 with at least two co-morbidities, you are OK. If if you are your chances of survival are greater than they were six weeks ago.

    Aside from wrecking your health, making you bankrupt (medical bills) and killing your elderly relatives......
  • LadyGLadyG Posts: 313

    LadyG said:

    BLM are doubling down despite the hue and cry



    Unwise, I think. Very unwise
    Well, we already know they hate Gandhi's peaceful methods of campaigning.
    And it looks like today’s twitter meltdown is not a one-off

  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 339
    Worth taking a look at the interview with Trump at the Federalist

    https://thefederalist.com/2020/06/27/trump-calls-for-tougher-republican-response-political-war/

    These comments around 3/4 down caught my eye

    "Despite facing serious political headwinds as well as some cautionary recent polling data, Trump’s mood was confident and relaxed. Acknowledging the challenge of proving he can lead the country out of a global pandemic and an economic funk, he said that re-election looked easy “as recently as three, four months ago” before the coronavirus pandemic hit.

    “We proved what we could do, cutting taxes, cutting regulations, job numbers like nothing before,” Trump said. The key, he acknowledged, was to convince voters he can repeat that success."

    Sounds like the man has a plan....
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 1,934
    LadyG said:

    LadyG said:

    BLM are doubling down despite the hue and cry



    Unwise, I think. Very unwise
    Well, we already know they hate Gandhi's peaceful methods of campaigning.
    And it looks like today’s twitter meltdown is not a one-off

    If something looks like the Corbyn cult, talks like the Corbyn cult, and is obsessed with a certain group of people like the Corbyn cult...
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 29,154
    LadyG said:

    LadyG said:

    BLM are doubling down despite the hue and cry



    Unwise, I think. Very unwise
    Well, we already know they hate Gandhi's peaceful methods of campaigning.
    And it looks like today’s twitter meltdown is not a one-off

    In fairness I think it is worth pointing out there was a follow-up to that:



    Admittedly it’s not perhaps the most convincing of statements (if they thought that wasn’t anti-Semitic they’re idiots) but the right thing was done - it was deleted and an apology made.
  • BannedinnParisBannedinnParis Posts: 873
    LadyG said:

    LadyG said:

    BLM are doubling down despite the hue and cry



    Unwise, I think. Very unwise
    Well, we already know they hate Gandhi's peaceful methods of campaigning.
    And it looks like today’s twitter meltdown is not a one-off

    This is my total lack of surprise
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 54,584

    kinabalu said:

    isam said:

    Good to see Sir Keir totally ridding Labour of any association it had with anti-semitism





    The British government opposes the plan by the Israeli government to annex land in the West Bank. Is the British government anti-semitic?
    Israel will become a no-go area for debate if we're not careful. It is replacing Immigration as the "I" word you must steer clear of unless you are prepared for a whole heap of trouble. Risk saying it - in a negative sense - and the zealous hordes of the xenophobic antiwokerati will be screaming "antisemite!" in your face before you've got a full sentence out.
    I don't know if you saw it, but Ed Miliband was excellent on this on the Marr show this morning. He was absolutely clear that criticism of actions of the Israeli state, for example annexation, was entirely legitimate, and was not evidence of anti-semitism. At the same time, he justified RLB's dismissal on the grounds that she was endorsing, wittingly or not, Peake's spurious linking of the Israeli defence force to George Floyd's murder. As he pointed out, the US police could have learnt techniques from a wide range of foreign actors - singling out Israel (wrongly anyway) was evidence of anti-semitism.

    This seems to me a pretty clear distinction to make. People on all sides, not just the left, have the right to be critical of Israel's actions in relation to the Palestinians. Though it shouldn't become an overriding obsession, to the exclusion of other matters of justice, as it is with some on the left.
    You know, I kind of miss Ed being leader!
    So do I, David Cameron was PM then.
  • LadyGLadyG Posts: 313
    ydoethur said:

    LadyG said:

    LadyG said:

    BLM are doubling down despite the hue and cry



    Unwise, I think. Very unwise
    Well, we already know they hate Gandhi's peaceful methods of campaigning.
    And it looks like today’s twitter meltdown is not a one-off

    In fairness I think it is worth pointing out there was a follow-up to that:



    Admittedly it’s not perhaps the most convincing of statements (if they thought that wasn’t anti-Semitic they’re idiots) but the right thing was done - it was deleted and an apology made.
    Which might have been fine, if we hadn’t seen today’s outburst. Just a few hours later.

    They can’t help it. They’re obsessed.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 20,578
    edited June 28

    Donald Trump shares a video of a senior-citizen supporter from Florida yelling 'white power' during a golf-cart protest and calls the MAGA fans 'great people'

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8467959/Trump-posts-video-supporter-yelling-white-power-claims-stopped-statue-vandalism.html

    Trump now moved to saying very fine people only on one side (we knew that's what he really thought all along).

    I like the spirited old bird repeatedly shouting 'Fucking Nazis' at them.
  • SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 2,009
    edited June 28
    Actually, YouGov do tracker polling in lots of countries including the UK and US on this.

    More Americans are very or somewhat scared about catching the virus (55% v 45%), while only 40% say the situation is improving compared with 76% in the UK. Support levels are similar for various named measures to control the virus.

    It's easy to highlight an eye-catching bit of video of idiots. But that doesn't make it representative, and the data suggests it isn't.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 4,891
    edited June 28

    The question is, how much of Trumps vote is like this? It is very easy to find the nutters supporting a party/candidate.

    Any links to good opinion poll surveys of beliefs in US politics?

    Found this...

    https://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2020/06/12/amid-protests-majorities-across-racial-and-ethnic-groups-express-support-for-the-black-lives-matter-movement/

    At

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/coronavirus-polls/

    82% of Republicans approve of Trumps response to COVID19...
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 26,623
    ydoethur said:

    On topic, at the moment the Covid-19 numbers from the US are to put it mildly discouraging.

    The question is, who gets blamed? Trump, or state governors?

    Not that that would make a practical difference in say, Georgia.

    The lockdown rules appear to be the responsibility of the State governors, but there are federal public health agencies such as the CDC which come under the President/

    Clearly Democrats are going to be blaming the White House, and Republicans the Democrat mayors and governors, many of whom are also up for re-election in November.

    I still think the Presidential election is too close to call, once again the two parties in the USA have produced the two most unsuitable candidates.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 46,935
    edited June 28
    ydoethur said:

    LadyG said:

    LadyG said:

    BLM are doubling down despite the hue and cry



    Unwise, I think. Very unwise
    Well, we already know they hate Gandhi's peaceful methods of campaigning.
    And it looks like today’s twitter meltdown is not a one-off

    In fairness I think it is worth pointing out there was a follow-up to that:



    Admittedly it’s not perhaps the most convincing of statements (if they thought that wasn’t anti-Semitic they’re idiots) but the right thing was done - it was deleted and an apology made.
    Wasn't aware....wasn't aware....bullshit. Its the same friggin image that got Jezza in trouble and was plastered all over the media, and what has it got to do with discrimination against black people.

    And if you do an image search for that on google, all you see the world "antisemitic" around it. You can't miss that it is problematic.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 1,589
    ydoethur said:

    LadyG said:

    LadyG said:

    BLM are doubling down despite the hue and cry



    Unwise, I think. Very unwise
    Well, we already know they hate Gandhi's peaceful methods of campaigning.
    And it looks like today’s twitter meltdown is not a one-off

    In fairness I think it is worth pointing out there was a follow-up to that:



    Admittedly it’s not perhaps the most convincing of statements (if they thought that wasn’t anti-Semitic they’re idiots) but the right thing was done - it was deleted and an apology made.
    ''We'd like to apologies because the person who did this was only a trainee anti-semite. They were not experienced in couching their anti-semitism in terms that would be difficult to expose''
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 54,584
    ydoethur said:

    LadyG said:

    LadyG said:

    BLM are doubling down despite the hue and cry



    Unwise, I think. Very unwise
    Well, we already know they hate Gandhi's peaceful methods of campaigning.
    And it looks like today’s twitter meltdown is not a one-off

    In fairness I think it is worth pointing out there was a follow-up to that:



    Admittedly it’s not perhaps the most convincing of statements (if they thought that wasn’t anti-Semitic they’re idiots) but the right thing was done - it was deleted and an apology made.
    Yes, whether sincere or not people can decide, and whether apologies make up for earlier actions others can also decide (some actions and words may require more), but accepting it was wrong, even if not willingly, demonstrates its wrongness for the debate.

    There are people who believe so strongly that because of their moral rightness it is impossible that they could be wrong, that it is impossible, for instance, for someone who perceives themselves to be an anti racist campaigner to themselves be a racist. But it is not at all impossible.

    I read one of Tim Marshall's books earlier (Divided: Why we're living in an age of walls) and he makes reference to how it is possible that people and groups can be a reaction to societal white discrimination, but nevertheless adopt a racist ideology (his example was Louis Farrakhan of the Nation of Islam, neither of which I'm much familiar with).
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 31,190
    There’s crazy, there’s bat shit mental and then there are religious Americans. Just bewildering.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 4,891

    ydoethur said:

    LadyG said:

    LadyG said:

    BLM are doubling down despite the hue and cry



    Unwise, I think. Very unwise
    Well, we already know they hate Gandhi's peaceful methods of campaigning.
    And it looks like today’s twitter meltdown is not a one-off

    In fairness I think it is worth pointing out there was a follow-up to that:



    Admittedly it’s not perhaps the most convincing of statements (if they thought that wasn’t anti-Semitic they’re idiots) but the right thing was done - it was deleted and an apology made.
    Wasn't aware....wasn't aware....bullshit. Its the same friggin image that got Jezza in trouble, and what has it got to do with discrimination about black people.
    Bit like some images from Der Sturmer keep on popping up in certain places around the world.

    The interesting thing is that such racists can't help themselves.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 54,584

    ydoethur said:

    LadyG said:

    LadyG said:

    BLM are doubling down despite the hue and cry



    Unwise, I think. Very unwise
    Well, we already know they hate Gandhi's peaceful methods of campaigning.
    And it looks like today’s twitter meltdown is not a one-off

    In fairness I think it is worth pointing out there was a follow-up to that:



    Admittedly it’s not perhaps the most convincing of statements (if they thought that wasn’t anti-Semitic they’re idiots) but the right thing was done - it was deleted and an apology made.
    ''We'd like to apologies because the person who did this was only a trainee anti-semite. They were not experienced in couching their anti-semitism in terms that would be difficult to expose''
    Perhaps. But a bit like how even anti-democratic places usually try to appear or call themselves democratic, accepting the principal that democracy is good, if we cannot end racism (which sadly we cannot) at least if everyone still officially accepts racism is bad that's a start.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 34,548
    MrEd said:

    Worth taking a look at the interview with Trump at the Federalist

    https://thefederalist.com/2020/06/27/trump-calls-for-tougher-republican-response-political-war/

    These comments around 3/4 down caught my eye

    "Despite facing serious political headwinds as well as some cautionary recent polling data, Trump’s mood was confident and relaxed. Acknowledging the challenge of proving he can lead the country out of a global pandemic and an economic funk, he said that re-election looked easy “as recently as three, four months ago” before the coronavirus pandemic hit.

    “We proved what we could do, cutting taxes, cutting regulations, job numbers like nothing before,” Trump said. The key, he acknowledged, was to convince voters he can repeat that success."

    Sounds like the man has a plan....

    If it really is "the economy, stupid", then you have to wonder whether an economy with numbers steaming upwards from disastrous lows is better for Trump than one that was bumping along with a risk of recession round the corner (which I seem to recall was the likely November scenario before Covid happened...).
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 1,589
    DavidL said:

    There’s crazy, there’s bat shit mental and then there are religious Americans. Just bewildering.

    DavidL said:

    There’s crazy, there’s bat shit mental and then there are religious Americans. Just bewildering.


    Yeah......how many gay people did they stab to death in Reading again?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 31,190

    LadyG said:

    LadyG said:

    BLM are doubling down despite the hue and cry



    Unwise, I think. Very unwise
    Well, we already know they hate Gandhi's peaceful methods of campaigning.
    Surely this is the end of BLM shirts and kneeling in the EPL?

    And it looks like today’s twitter meltdown is not a one-off

    If something looks like the Corbyn cult, talks like the Corbyn cult, and is obsessed with a certain group of people like the Corbyn cult...
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 10,905

    Those Americans are right. IF you are not 80 with at least two co-morbidities, you are OK. If if you are your chances of survival are greater than they were six weeks ago.

    Aside from wrecking your health, making you bankrupt (medical bills) and killing your elderly relatives......
    Yeah but leaving those minor points aside.....................

  • The question is, how much of Trumps vote is like this? It is very easy to find the nutters supporting a party/candidate.

    Any links to good opinion poll surveys of beliefs in US politics?

    Found this...

    https://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2020/06/12/amid-protests-majorities-across-racial-and-ethnic-groups-express-support-for-the-black-lives-matter-movement/

    At

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/coronavirus-polls/

    82% of Republicans approve of Trumps response to COVID19...
    That isn't the same as being like the nutters in the video.

    I don't want to stand up for Trump, and wouldn't be in the group approving of his response or indeed much about his Presidency. But his position isn't total denial that there is a crisis, or a refusal to countenance ANY drastic measures to address it. Rather, he's been towards the side of more limited interventions and reasonably fast reopening for economic reasons. You can agree or disagree with that but (verbal diarrhea about bleach aside) it isn't utterly crazy.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 26,623

    ydoethur said:

    LadyG said:

    LadyG said:

    BLM are doubling down despite the hue and cry



    Unwise, I think. Very unwise
    Well, we already know they hate Gandhi's peaceful methods of campaigning.
    And it looks like today’s twitter meltdown is not a one-off

    In fairness I think it is worth pointing out there was a follow-up to that:



    Admittedly it’s not perhaps the most convincing of statements (if they thought that wasn’t anti-Semitic they’re idiots) but the right thing was done - it was deleted and an apology made.
    Wasn't aware....wasn't aware....bullshit. Its the same friggin image that got Jezza in trouble and was plastered all over the media, and what has it got to do with discrimination against black people.

    And if you do an image search for that on google, all you see the world "antisemitic" around it. You can't miss that it is problematic.
    That image is of the mural in London that Corbyn got in trouble for two years ago.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/mar/23/corbyn-criticised-after-backing-artist-behind-antisemitic-mural

    There's no way anyone running a social media account wouldn't be aware of it in that context.
  • LadyGLadyG Posts: 313
    edited June 28

    ydoethur said:

    LadyG said:

    LadyG said:

    BLM are doubling down despite the hue and cry



    Unwise, I think. Very unwise
    Well, we already know they hate Gandhi's peaceful methods of campaigning.
    And it looks like today’s twitter meltdown is not a one-off

    In fairness I think it is worth pointing out there was a follow-up to that:



    Admittedly it’s not perhaps the most convincing of statements (if they thought that wasn’t anti-Semitic they’re idiots) but the right thing was done - it was deleted and an apology made.
    Wasn't aware....wasn't aware....bullshit. Its the same friggin image that got Jezza in trouble and was plastered all over the media, and what has it got to do with discrimination against black people.

    And if you do an image search for that on google, all you see the world "antisemitic" around it. You can't miss that it is problematic.
    Yes. How would you accidentally find and then choose that particular image, without being aware of its vile connotations, and/or its recent notoriety?

    And why would you then USE the image, to advertise some event? That seems to be plain old, dog-whistling anti-Semitism. The apology is bullshit.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 4,891

    NHS England Hospital numbers out -

    Headline : 18 - lowest, Sunday or not, in a long while
    7 Days : 16
    Yesterday : 3

    image
    image
    image
    image

    The hospital numbers of deaths going down is v encouraging, but we are still killing a lot of people in the care homes and at home, which don't get included here.
    The community numbers are falling in proportion to the hospital numbers - though reporting for all settings is much more effected by the weekend.

    I expect the total at https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ announced today to be little more than the hospital numbers - the reporting for other settings doesn't seem to happen much on the weekend.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 3,845
    I think there's a language problem, namely that antisemitism is not understood to be a subcategory of racism but something separate. So you can happily be antisemitic and anti-racist at the same time.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 29,154

    Claiming ignorance of the antisemitic mural in 2020, is a bit like claiming you didn't know blackface is problematic and went to a fancy dress party as one of the black and white minstrels.

    Is that True, do?
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 10,905
    geoffw said:

    I think there's a language problem, namely that antisemitism is not understood to be a subcategory of racism but something separate. So you can happily be antisemitic and anti-racist at the same time.

    Only if you are a fecking hypocrite
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 4,891
    kle4 said:

    ydoethur said:

    LadyG said:

    LadyG said:

    BLM are doubling down despite the hue and cry



    Unwise, I think. Very unwise
    Well, we already know they hate Gandhi's peaceful methods of campaigning.
    And it looks like today’s twitter meltdown is not a one-off

    In fairness I think it is worth pointing out there was a follow-up to that:



    Admittedly it’s not perhaps the most convincing of statements (if they thought that wasn’t anti-Semitic they’re idiots) but the right thing was done - it was deleted and an apology made.
    Yes, whether sincere or not people can decide, and whether apologies make up for earlier actions others can also decide (some actions and words may require more), but accepting it was wrong, even if not willingly, demonstrates its wrongness for the debate.

    There are people who believe so strongly that because of their moral rightness it is impossible that they could be wrong, that it is impossible, for instance, for someone who perceives themselves to be an anti racist campaigner to themselves be a racist. But it is not at all impossible.

    I read one of Tim Marshall's books earlier (Divided: Why we're living in an age of walls) and he makes reference to how it is possible that people and groups can be a reaction to societal white discrimination, but nevertheless adopt a racist ideology (his example was Louis Farrakhan of the Nation of Islam, neither of which I'm much familiar with).
    There is a thread of quite aggressive anti-semitism running through a portion of the various Black rights movements in the US. Farrakhan is a famous example of this.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 17,386

    Actually, YouGov do tracker polling in lots of countries including the UK and US on this.

    More Americans are very or somewhat scared about catching the virus (55% v 45%), while only 40% say the situation is improving compared with 76% in the UK. Support levels are similar for various named measures to control the virus.

    It's easy to highlight an eye-catching bit of video of idiots. But that doesn't make it representative, and the data suggests it isn't.

    I'm curious as to how many people in the UK DON'T think the situation is improving.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 4,289

    MrEd said:

    Worth taking a look at the interview with Trump at the Federalist

    https://thefederalist.com/2020/06/27/trump-calls-for-tougher-republican-response-political-war/

    These comments around 3/4 down caught my eye

    "Despite facing serious political headwinds as well as some cautionary recent polling data, Trump’s mood was confident and relaxed. Acknowledging the challenge of proving he can lead the country out of a global pandemic and an economic funk, he said that re-election looked easy “as recently as three, four months ago” before the coronavirus pandemic hit.

    “We proved what we could do, cutting taxes, cutting regulations, job numbers like nothing before,” Trump said. The key, he acknowledged, was to convince voters he can repeat that success."

    Sounds like the man has a plan....

    If it really is "the economy, stupid", then you have to wonder whether an economy with numbers steaming upwards from disastrous lows is better for Trump than one that was bumping along with a risk of recession round the corner (which I seem to recall was the likely November scenario before Covid happened...).
    Positive economic trends from a low starting point will be less important than personal experience of restricted healthcare access, unemployment and a newly acquired poverty.

    One could add the caveat that some people in the above predicament might see Trump, ironically, as the man best equipped to dig them out.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 34,548
    LadyG said:

    ydoethur said:

    LadyG said:

    LadyG said:

    BLM are doubling down despite the hue and cry



    Unwise, I think. Very unwise
    Well, we already know they hate Gandhi's peaceful methods of campaigning.
    And it looks like today’s twitter meltdown is not a one-off

    In fairness I think it is worth pointing out there was a follow-up to that:



    Admittedly it’s not perhaps the most convincing of statements (if they thought that wasn’t anti-Semitic they’re idiots) but the right thing was done - it was deleted and an apology made.
    Wasn't aware....wasn't aware....bullshit. Its the same friggin image that got Jezza in trouble and was plastered all over the media, and what has it got to do with discrimination against black people.

    And if you do an image search for that on google, all you see the world "antisemitic" around it. You can't miss that it is problematic.
    Yes. How would you accidentally find and then choose that particular image, without being aware of its vile connotations, and/or its recent notoriety?

    And why would you then USE the image, to advertise some event? That seems to be plain old, dog-whistling anti-Semitism. The apology is bullshit.
    Remarkable overlap between Black Lives Matter and Jewish Lives Don't.....
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 1,589

    kle4 said:

    ydoethur said:

    LadyG said:

    LadyG said:

    BLM are doubling down despite the hue and cry



    Unwise, I think. Very unwise
    Well, we already know they hate Gandhi's peaceful methods of campaigning.
    And it looks like today’s twitter meltdown is not a one-off

    In fairness I think it is worth pointing out there was a follow-up to that:



    Admittedly it’s not perhaps the most convincing of statements (if they thought that wasn’t anti-Semitic they’re idiots) but the right thing was done - it was deleted and an apology made.
    Yes, whether sincere or not people can decide, and whether apologies make up for earlier actions others can also decide (some actions and words may require more), but accepting it was wrong, even if not willingly, demonstrates its wrongness for the debate.

    There are people who believe so strongly that because of their moral rightness it is impossible that they could be wrong, that it is impossible, for instance, for someone who perceives themselves to be an anti racist campaigner to themselves be a racist. But it is not at all impossible.

    I read one of Tim Marshall's books earlier (Divided: Why we're living in an age of walls) and he makes reference to how it is possible that people and groups can be a reaction to societal white discrimination, but nevertheless adopt a racist ideology (his example was Louis Farrakhan of the Nation of Islam, neither of which I'm much familiar with).
    There is a thread of quite aggressive anti-semitism running through a portion of the various Black rights movements in the US. Farrakhan is a famous example of this.
    If this gets across the Atlantic......

    hmmn.
  • Actually, YouGov do tracker polling in lots of countries including the UK and US on this.

    More Americans are very or somewhat scared about catching the virus (55% v 45%), while only 40% say the situation is improving compared with 76% in the UK. Support levels are similar for various named measures to control the virus.

    It's easy to highlight an eye-catching bit of video of idiots. But that doesn't make it representative, and the data suggests it isn't.

    I'm curious as to how many people in the UK DON'T think the situation is improving.
    Firstly, they may be very worried about a second wave. Secondly, they may well be thinking about the economic impact - if your job is in danger or gone, the outlook for you personally may remain very bleak indeed.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 3,845
    Floater said:

    geoffw said:

    I think there's a language problem, namely that antisemitism is not understood to be a subcategory of racism but something separate. So you can happily be antisemitic and anti-racist at the same time.

    Only if you are a fecking hypocrite
    In their minds the separate categories means that they are not hypocrites. That's the point.

  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,130
    edited June 28

    kle4 said:

    ydoethur said:

    LadyG said:

    LadyG said:

    BLM are doubling down despite the hue and cry



    Unwise, I think. Very unwise
    Well, we already know they hate Gandhi's peaceful methods of campaigning.
    And it looks like today’s twitter meltdown is not a one-off

    In fairness I think it is worth pointing out there was a follow-up to that:



    Admittedly it’s not perhaps the most convincing of statements (if they thought that wasn’t anti-Semitic they’re idiots) but the right thing was done - it was deleted and an apology made.
    Yes, whether sincere or not people can decide, and whether apologies make up for earlier actions others can also decide (some actions and words may require more), but accepting it was wrong, even if not willingly, demonstrates its wrongness for the debate.

    There are people who believe so strongly that because of their moral rightness it is impossible that they could be wrong, that it is impossible, for instance, for someone who perceives themselves to be an anti racist campaigner to themselves be a racist. But it is not at all impossible.

    I read one of Tim Marshall's books earlier (Divided: Why we're living in an age of walls) and he makes reference to how it is possible that people and groups can be a reaction to societal white discrimination, but nevertheless adopt a racist ideology (his example was Louis Farrakhan of the Nation of Islam, neither of which I'm much familiar with).
    There is a thread of quite aggressive anti-semitism running through a portion of the various Black rights movements in the US. Farrakhan is a famous example of this.
    If this gets across the Atlantic......

    hmmn.
    Already here, saw plenty of it at Uni years ago.

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 54,584

    Claiming ignorance of the antisemitic mural in 2020, is a bit like claiming you didn't know blackface is problematic and went to a fancy dress party as one of the black and white minstrels.

    As I like to note, Corbyn didn't claim such in his situation, he claimed he had not looked properly at it, undercutting those who tried to defend him by saying it was not obviously antisemtic.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 54,584
    Scott_xP said:
    If the big shift is a return to a situation from a few years ago then it is not as much of a shakeup as I'd have thought, sudden exit notwithstanding.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 34,548

    MrEd said:

    Worth taking a look at the interview with Trump at the Federalist

    https://thefederalist.com/2020/06/27/trump-calls-for-tougher-republican-response-political-war/

    These comments around 3/4 down caught my eye

    "Despite facing serious political headwinds as well as some cautionary recent polling data, Trump’s mood was confident and relaxed. Acknowledging the challenge of proving he can lead the country out of a global pandemic and an economic funk, he said that re-election looked easy “as recently as three, four months ago” before the coronavirus pandemic hit.

    “We proved what we could do, cutting taxes, cutting regulations, job numbers like nothing before,” Trump said. The key, he acknowledged, was to convince voters he can repeat that success."

    Sounds like the man has a plan....

    If it really is "the economy, stupid", then you have to wonder whether an economy with numbers steaming upwards from disastrous lows is better for Trump than one that was bumping along with a risk of recession round the corner (which I seem to recall was the likely November scenario before Covid happened...).
    Positive economic trends from a low starting point will be less important than personal experience of restricted healthcare access, unemployment and a newly acquired poverty.

    One could add the caveat that some people in the above predicament might see Trump, ironically, as the man best equipped to dig them out.
    I still find the November election very difficult to call. Biden's Veep pick will get a lot of scrutiny, far more than usual. Trump will run the campaign that Joe will clearly be unfit to govern during his first term - and his Veep will take over as acting President under the 25th Amendment. Going after the Veep will just cement in the minds of the voters that Biden isn't fit to be President. And nor is his successor....

    I couldn't have voted for either candidate on offer in 2016. I couldn't cast a positive vote for either in 2020.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 3,599
    kle4 said:

    If the big shift is a return to a situation from a few years ago then it is not as much of a shakeup as I'd have thought, sudden exit notwithstanding.

    When was the last time the National Security Advisor was a SPAD?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 4,891

    kle4 said:

    ydoethur said:

    LadyG said:

    LadyG said:

    BLM are doubling down despite the hue and cry



    Unwise, I think. Very unwise
    Well, we already know they hate Gandhi's peaceful methods of campaigning.
    And it looks like today’s twitter meltdown is not a one-off

    In fairness I think it is worth pointing out there was a follow-up to that:



    Admittedly it’s not perhaps the most convincing of statements (if they thought that wasn’t anti-Semitic they’re idiots) but the right thing was done - it was deleted and an apology made.
    Yes, whether sincere or not people can decide, and whether apologies make up for earlier actions others can also decide (some actions and words may require more), but accepting it was wrong, even if not willingly, demonstrates its wrongness for the debate.

    There are people who believe so strongly that because of their moral rightness it is impossible that they could be wrong, that it is impossible, for instance, for someone who perceives themselves to be an anti racist campaigner to themselves be a racist. But it is not at all impossible.

    I read one of Tim Marshall's books earlier (Divided: Why we're living in an age of walls) and he makes reference to how it is possible that people and groups can be a reaction to societal white discrimination, but nevertheless adopt a racist ideology (his example was Louis Farrakhan of the Nation of Islam, neither of which I'm much familiar with).
    There is a thread of quite aggressive anti-semitism running through a portion of the various Black rights movements in the US. Farrakhan is a famous example of this.
    If this gets across the Atlantic......

    hmmn.
    Already here, saw plenty of it at Uni years ago.

    Yes - that plus the more... fruity stuff from the Arab world, and you can understand why the demographic of the people caught doing anti-Semitic slogans on synagogues has changed.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 10,905
    kle4 said:

    Claiming ignorance of the antisemitic mural in 2020, is a bit like claiming you didn't know blackface is problematic and went to a fancy dress party as one of the black and white minstrels.

    As I like to note, Corbyn didn't claim such in his situation, he claimed he had not looked properly at it, undercutting those who tried to defend him by saying it was not obviously antisemtic.
    Which included posters on this forum.

    They know who they are
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 2,958
    OllyT said:

    Gadfly said:

    Stocky said:

    tyson hasn`t been active on the site for a month. Hope he`s ok.

    I also fear for Gideon Wise, who had Covid and was last active on Vanilla on 20 April.
    Same with Roger - it is concerning when people disappear. It's odd because over time you do come to feel that you "know" other posters but at the end of the day I could be talking to a bot factory in Moscow for all I know!
    Very concerning. If anyone knows about Roger, please let us know.

    As his cousin, the honourable member for Edinburgh South ought to be able to send him our best wishes.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 8,382

    The question is, how much of Trumps vote is like this? It is very easy to find the nutters supporting a party/candidate.

    Any links to good opinion poll surveys of beliefs in US politics?

    Found this...

    https://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2020/06/12/amid-protests-majorities-across-racial-and-ethnic-groups-express-support-for-the-black-lives-matter-movement/

    At

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/coronavirus-polls/

    82% of Republicans approve of Trumps response to COVID19...
    That isn't the same as being like the nutters in the video.

    I don't want to stand up for Trump, and wouldn't be in the group approving of his response or indeed much about his Presidency. But his position isn't total denial that there is a crisis, or a refusal to countenance ANY drastic measures to address it. Rather, he's been towards the side of more limited interventions and reasonably fast reopening for economic reasons. You can agree or disagree with that but (verbal diarrhea about bleach aside) it isn't utterly crazy.
    If he had kept silent and played golf since February the US would be in a better situation about Covid-19.
    If he had done nothing as President from the start the Pandemic Response Team would still have been in place.
    Trump is part of the problem.
    https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/trump-fire-pandemic-team/
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 17,386

    Actually, YouGov do tracker polling in lots of countries including the UK and US on this.

    More Americans are very or somewhat scared about catching the virus (55% v 45%), while only 40% say the situation is improving compared with 76% in the UK. Support levels are similar for various named measures to control the virus.

    It's easy to highlight an eye-catching bit of video of idiots. But that doesn't make it representative, and the data suggests it isn't.

    I'm curious as to how many people in the UK DON'T think the situation is improving.
    Firstly, they may be very worried about a second wave. Secondly, they may well be thinking about the economic impact - if your job is in danger or gone, the outlook for you personally may remain very bleak indeed.
    It would be more bleak for both groups if infections and deaths hadn't fallen.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 4,891
    geoffw said:

    I think there's a language problem, namely that antisemitism is not understood to be a subcategory of racism but something separate. So you can happily be antisemitic and anti-racist at the same time.

    I would say it is more a question of have in-groups and out-groups. People and causes you care about. People and causes you hate.

    When you add in the belief that non-white cultures are not to be questioned or challenged in any way...
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 10,905

    OllyT said:

    Gadfly said:

    Stocky said:

    tyson hasn`t been active on the site for a month. Hope he`s ok.

    I also fear for Gideon Wise, who had Covid and was last active on Vanilla on 20 April.
    Same with Roger - it is concerning when people disappear. It's odd because over time you do come to feel that you "know" other posters but at the end of the day I could be talking to a bot factory in Moscow for all I know!
    Very concerning. If anyone knows about Roger, please let us know.

    As his cousin, the honourable member for Edinburgh South ought to be able to send him our best wishes.
    I think someone posted that Tyson had conversed with Roger via e mail on last thread
  • LadyGLadyG Posts: 313
    kle4 said:

    Claiming ignorance of the antisemitic mural in 2020, is a bit like claiming you didn't know blackface is problematic and went to a fancy dress party as one of the black and white minstrels.

    As I like to note, Corbyn didn't claim such in his situation, he claimed he had not looked properly at it, undercutting those who tried to defend him by saying it was not obviously antisemtic.
    The weird thing about the BLM Twitter rant is that it isn’t a rant. It’s a carefully sourced thread, of about ten tweets, with quotes, images, citations. All correctly spelled and articulate.

    So this wasn’t an intern with a Sunday hangover, this was a planned and prepared argument. They thought it through and pressed Send anyway. Hard to believe they wouldn’t know how it might be received. Most odd.



  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,130
    edited June 28
    Oh, speaking of that mural.



    Twitter will delete your account for saying "Men aren't women tho", or hide tweets in case they "cause offense", but is totally fine with this.

    This for me rings enormous alarm bells about where things are going.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 34,548
    Scott_xP said:
    Sedwill's position was untenable when it was discovered he was trying to agree a two-year Brexit extension with Brussels - whilst Boris was in hospital with Covid.

    Cummins discovered this - and closed it down. Now we leave on 31st December 2020.

    The peeved reaction was the release of the long known about story of Cummins' trip to Durham....
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 1,934
    Scott_xP said:
    He's going?

    I guess they Sed-he-will, so no big surprise...
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 10,905

    Oh, speaking of that mural.



    Twitter will delete your account for saying "Men aren't women tho", or hide tweets in case they "cause offense", but is totally fine with this.

    This for me rings enormous alarm bells.
    Today you can lose your job for saying "white lives matter"

    and get promoted for saying "white lives don't matter"

    Strange old world...........
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 2,958
    malcolmg said:

    Tres said:

    malcolmg said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Astonishingly good figures for Sturgeon there, considering that this is a Great Britain-wide poll. She clearly has an awful lot of admirers in England. Rightly so.

    The winner of the Next First Minister market depends largely on when Sturgeon decides to go.

    There is of course the issue of what Ladbrokes and other bookies would do if the job title changes. That could be pre- or post-independence, or in conjunction with it. The office of First Minister of Norway was changed to Prime Minister of Norway 27 years prior to their successful independence referendum in 1905. On the other hand, even when independent, Scots could decide to keep the name of the office as First Minister, which has the advantage of familiarity. The job title is far less important than the substantive powers.
    Norway and Sweden were in a personal rather than political Union under the crown of Sweden after 1873 (not 1878). That change was the reason why the title changed (and the location of the office, which was previously in Stockholm not Oslo). Scotland and England are in one United Kingdom. The parallel doesn’t work.

    Or to put it another way, do you really think Boris Johnson or even Keir Starmer will be willing to put forward and pass legislation that would change the statutory office of First Minister established under Section 44 of the Scotland Act 1998, that would further the SNP narrative they both reject?
    “one United Kingdom”

    Ho ho.

    I’m a big fan of the Johnson/Starmer Jock-bashing axis: they have both decided to simply keep building the dam higher and higher, as the weight of water behind the crumbling, ill-designed structure just keeps getting greater and greater. Tony Blair was no structural engineer, and his blueprint to “kill nationalism stone dead” has so enraged British Nationalists that they have set themselves on an irreversible course to destroying the thing they claim to love.
    Are you saying Scotland is not part of the United Kingdom?
    Intellectually: no.

    Emotionally: no.

    Technically: kind of.
    Yet in 2014 55% of actual Scottish voters disagreed. And since then there is no metric other than a few MoE polls to suggest a substantial shift.

    Try not to confuse wishful thinking from the safe(ish) distance of Sweden with reality.
    55% of people resident in Scotland, which is not quite the same thing.

    Personally, I’d prefer zero polling on this topic. The shock when the reality hits home as the dam collapses...
    Umm, Scottish voters are ‘people resident in Scotland.’ That’s why they have, y’know, votes in Scotland.

    The problem for Scottish independence is that while its supporters are becoming more strident the actual issues have, if anything, moved the fundamentals against them.

    In 2014 there were serious doubts as to whether Scotland could remain in the EU, which was vital to the economic case for independence. Now, we know it wouldn’t be in the EU and would have to apply under article 49, a long process.

    In 2014, there was a strong government with substantial Scottish representation in Westminster, which had worked effectively with the SNP to deliver a referendum that everyone agrees was free, fair and democratic, although some quibbles about the franchise and its extent remain. It was a government that could be expected to negotiate a divorce on a reasonable basis, in good faith. Now, we have a factional, divisive and populist English dominated government led by an unstable liar whose skills in negotiations are zero, and because of that, would not negotiate at all. His response would be, ‘independence? Fine. Sod off. Enjoy the border checks at Gretna.’

    The oil price is on the floor and may never recover fully.

    The pound, leaving aside its own serious issues, is being debased to support the government of the UK, and the Euro continues to be a mess, so the currency situation would still be unclear.

    The SNP itself is divided and the Salmond saga is far from over. It may bring down Sturgeon. More likely it simply becomes a festering sore that taints a government noted for its patriotism but not for its executive ability.

    Does that mean a referendum on independence would vote no again? Well, no, not for certain. Often these things are about emotion rather than reason (Brexit and perhaps more pertinently, the Irish Free State wave hello). And the mere fact the UK government is so unpopular in Scotland in itself does probably have an impact.

    But there is no sign of a shift from 45-55 to the 60-40 that would probably be needed to call a referendum in the expectation of winning it. I strongly suspect, indeed, that if Sturgeon had thought May or Johnson would have granted her a referendum she wouldn’t have called for one, as a second ‘No’ really would kill independence and possibly the SNP stone dead.

    Personally, I wonder if this all isn’t irrelevant anyway, as I think the age of the nation state (and there I include the EU) may be drawing to an end for other reasons. But I personally would be surprised if Scotland were to become independent in the next ten years. Not shocked, not dying of a heart attack, but surprised.
    Ydoethur, your one weakness is your knowledge of Scotland , Independence, SNP etc. You don't half write a load of old bollocks on the topic. Apart from that keep up the good work. Might be worth reading some actual Scottish "real" news sites rather than the Times and Daily Mail.
    The big difference from 2014 is that neither of the two big Westminster parties have any skin in the game from Scotland anymore. The Secretary of State for Scotland isn't even from a Scottish constituency anymore. This matters - there are no longer credible Scottish unionists figures from Westminster to oppose the movement to indepdendence - so it will only be a matter of time.
    Only STV - or similar electoral reform for Westminster elections - can ensure that there are Unionist MPs elected in respectable numbers from Scotland.

    The election of 80% SNP MPs on 45% of the vote completely distorts the political climate.
    Who complained when those were Scottish Labour's figures?
    Lots of people, I'm sure. STV would help to break the Labour stranglehold on inner cities in England, and the Tory dominance of rural areas, giving parties good reason to broaden their campaigning.

    It would be a general good - but there's a very specific issue with Scottish politics that it would help to solve.
    Think you mean would rig the election but trying not to say it, obviously your an average Tory grafter.
    The Tory reaction to IndyRef1 gave us Brexit. Might it now give us electoral reform?
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 1,589

    Scott_xP said:
    Sedwill's position was untenable when it was discovered he was trying to agree a two-year Brexit extension with Brussels - whilst Boris was in hospital with Covid.

    Cummins discovered this - and closed it down. Now we leave on 31st December 2020.

    The peeved reaction was the release of the long known about story of Cummins' trip to Durham....
    Has Sedwill's move been reported anywhere? or just conjecture?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 11,760

    Second like Trump in the 2016 popular vote

    Now that IS a certainty.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 1,684

    Those Americans are right. IF you are not 80 with at least two co-morbidities, you are OK. If if you are your chances of survival are greater than they were six weeks ago.

    What bits of what any of them said was actually 'right'?
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,894
    Those Lincoln Project people are being awfully effective.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 2,958
    Floater said:

    OllyT said:

    Gadfly said:

    Stocky said:

    tyson hasn`t been active on the site for a month. Hope he`s ok.

    I also fear for Gideon Wise, who had Covid and was last active on Vanilla on 20 April.
    Same with Roger - it is concerning when people disappear. It's odd because over time you do come to feel that you "know" other posters but at the end of the day I could be talking to a bot factory in Moscow for all I know!
    Very concerning. If anyone knows about Roger, please let us know.

    As his cousin, the honourable member for Edinburgh South ought to be able to send him our best wishes.
    I think someone posted that Tyson had conversed with Roger via e mail on last thread
    Thanks, but if both Tyson and Roger are missing in action, then that doesn’t really help.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 28,857
    FPT
    Tres said:

    » show previous quotes
    Sounds to me like the witterings of an old dinosaur who can't cope with their world view being challenged.

    go blow it out your arse, come back when your pimples have disappeared and you know the first thing about life you obnoxious little creep.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 10,905
    Jesus - this is a long read but the level of delusion on show here is surreal

    https://www.jacobinmag.com/2020/06/keir-starmer-rebecca-long-bailey-sacked-labour

    Mr Starmer might have a bit of a job on his hands
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 28,857

    Floater said:

    OllyT said:

    Gadfly said:

    Stocky said:

    tyson hasn`t been active on the site for a month. Hope he`s ok.

    I also fear for Gideon Wise, who had Covid and was last active on Vanilla on 20 April.
    Same with Roger - it is concerning when people disappear. It's odd because over time you do come to feel that you "know" other posters but at the end of the day I could be talking to a bot factory in Moscow for all I know!
    Very concerning. If anyone knows about Roger, please let us know.

    As his cousin, the honourable member for Edinburgh South ought to be able to send him our best wishes.
    I think someone posted that Tyson had conversed with Roger via e mail on last thread
    Thanks, but if both Tyson and Roger are missing in action, then that doesn’t really help.
    Tyson was around a few weeks ago
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 28,857

    OllyT said:

    Gadfly said:

    Stocky said:

    tyson hasn`t been active on the site for a month. Hope he`s ok.

    I also fear for Gideon Wise, who had Covid and was last active on Vanilla on 20 April.
    Same with Roger - it is concerning when people disappear. It's odd because over time you do come to feel that you "know" other posters but at the end of the day I could be talking to a bot factory in Moscow for all I know!
    Very concerning. If anyone knows about Roger, please let us know.

    As his cousin, the honourable member for Edinburgh South ought to be able to send him our best wishes.
    I said on last thread, tyson was in contact with him in recent past , only a few weeks at most and said he was well.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 4,289

    Scott_xP said:
    Sedwill's position was untenable when it was discovered he was trying to agree a two-year Brexit extension with Brussels - whilst Boris was in hospital with Covid.

    Cummins discovered this - and closed it down. Now we leave on 31st December 2020.

    The peeved reaction was the release of the long known about story of Cummins' trip to Durham....
    Priti Patel has hijacked your account! I know this because there is a 'g' at the end of Cummings!
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 11,760
    edited June 28
    geoffw said:

    I think there's a language problem, namely that antisemitism is not understood to be a subcategory of racism but something separate. So you can happily be antisemitic and anti-racist at the same time.

    There is more than a grain of truth in this. Antisemitism stands apart in certain ways. It's to do with skin colour (Jews are white) and with the lack of perceived oppression. Also the complex matter of Israel.

    For some "anti-racists" on the Left, Israel is an obsession and this leads them into antisemitism. By contrast for some white supremacist types on the Right, Israel is also an obsession but is close to a love object.

    So you have anti-racists on the Left being racist because they hate Israel and hardcore racists on the Right loving Israel because they are racists.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 4,289
    Floater said:

    Jesus - this is a long read but the level of delusion on show here is surreal

    https://www.jacobinmag.com/2020/06/keir-starmer-rebecca-long-bailey-sacked-labour

    Mr Starmer might have a bit of a job on his hands

    To continue and correct the analogy, Starmer inherited the burning building from an old man carrying accelerant and a box of matches.

    Starmer has put the fire out and is starting to rebuild the foundations. The old man's solicitor threw in a Molatov cocktail earlier this week which Starmer threw back at her.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 11,760
    Floater said:

    Oh, speaking of that mural.



    Twitter will delete your account for saying "Men aren't women tho", or hide tweets in case they "cause offense", but is totally fine with this.

    This for me rings enormous alarm bells.
    Today you can lose your job for saying "white lives matter"

    and get promoted for saying "white lives don't matter"

    Strange old world...........
    Where "saying" means hiring a plane and flying it as a banner message in the sky over a football match.

    And as for "promoted for saying white lives don't matter", I must have missed that one. Are you making it up?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 11,760
    malcolmg said:

    Floater said:

    OllyT said:

    Gadfly said:

    Stocky said:

    tyson hasn`t been active on the site for a month. Hope he`s ok.

    I also fear for Gideon Wise, who had Covid and was last active on Vanilla on 20 April.
    Same with Roger - it is concerning when people disappear. It's odd because over time you do come to feel that you "know" other posters but at the end of the day I could be talking to a bot factory in Moscow for all I know!
    Very concerning. If anyone knows about Roger, please let us know.

    As his cousin, the honourable member for Edinburgh South ought to be able to send him our best wishes.
    I think someone posted that Tyson had conversed with Roger via e mail on last thread
    Thanks, but if both Tyson and Roger are missing in action, then that doesn’t really help.
    Tyson was around a few weeks ago
    Yes. He was in fact all over a few threads. I recall clearly.

    He is distinctive with his ... dots ... between sentences.
  • LadyGLadyG Posts: 313
    edited June 28
    kinabalu said:

    geoffw said:

    I think there's a language problem, namely that antisemitism is not understood to be a subcategory of racism but something separate. So you can happily be antisemitic and anti-racist at the same time.

    There is more than a grain of truth in this. Antisemitism stands apart in certain ways. It's to do with skin colour (Jews are white) and with the lack of perceived oppression. Also the complex matter of Israel.

    For some "anti-racists" on the Left, Israel is an obsession and this leads them into antisemitism. By contrast for some white supremacist types on the Right, Israel is also an obsession but is close to a love object.

    So you have anti-racists on the Left being racist because they hate Israel and hardcore racists on the Right loving Israel because they are racists.
    But WHY do lefties get so obsessed by Israel? It’s a small country quite a long way away. It is fairly pivotal in Middle East politics, but not in ours.

    So, why? One reason might be that it is inhabited by Jews. Therefore the leftwing obsession with Israel is actually an obsession with Jews. Look at Ken Livingstone for an example.

    That suggests anti-Semitism is the root, not a mere by-product.

    Same goes for right wing Israel obsessives, too, but these days they are smaller in number.
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 4,665
    edited June 28
    PB Tories will of course support the nutter Cummings' latest move as they are part of his death cult
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 2,958
    malcolmg said:

    OllyT said:

    Gadfly said:

    Stocky said:

    tyson hasn`t been active on the site for a month. Hope he`s ok.

    I also fear for Gideon Wise, who had Covid and was last active on Vanilla on 20 April.
    Same with Roger - it is concerning when people disappear. It's odd because over time you do come to feel that you "know" other posters but at the end of the day I could be talking to a bot factory in Moscow for all I know!
    Very concerning. If anyone knows about Roger, please let us know.

    As his cousin, the honourable member for Edinburgh South ought to be able to send him our best wishes.
    I said on last thread, tyson was in contact with him in recent past , only a few weeks at most and said he was well.
    Ta.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 11,760
    Scott_xP said:
    Yes, this is my sense. We have a Gove/Cummings government with "Boris" wheeled out to tickle the tummy.

    Personally I'm immune - more he tickles the more I squirm - but many aren't.
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,130
    edited June 28
    kinabalu said:

    geoffw said:

    I think there's a language problem, namely that antisemitism is not understood to be a subcategory of racism but something separate. So you can happily be antisemitic and anti-racist at the same time.

    There is more than a grain of truth in this. Antisemitism stands apart in certain ways. It's to do with skin colour (Jews are white) and with the lack of perceived oppression. Also the complex matter of Israel.

    For some "anti-racists" on the Left, Israel is an obsession and this leads them into antisemitism. By contrast for some white supremacist types on the Right, Israel is also an obsession but is close to a love object.

    So you have anti-racists on the Left being racist because they hate Israel and hardcore racists on the Right loving Israel because they are racists.
    This is truly nuts. White Supremacists do not like Jews full stop, especially Israel, it is the core of white supremacist ideology that Jews are not part of their definition of white.

    On the other hand those on the left are keen to push "Jews are white" to imply Jews are the ultimate cause of "white supremecy", hence simply defending the right of Israel to exist is white supremecy.

    How about not trying to racialise everything?
  • TresTres Posts: 97
    malcolmg said:

    FPT
    Tres said:

    » show previous quotes
    Sounds to me like the witterings of an old dinosaur who can't cope with their world view being challenged.

    go blow it out your arse, come back when your pimples have disappeared and you know the first thing about life you obnoxious little creep.

    Haha, go find yourself some self-confidence, then maybe you wouldn't need to lash out so....
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 1,696

    Floater said:

    Jesus - this is a long read but the level of delusion on show here is surreal

    https://www.jacobinmag.com/2020/06/keir-starmer-rebecca-long-bailey-sacked-labour

    Mr Starmer might have a bit of a job on his hands

    To continue and correct the analogy, Starmer inherited the burning building from an old man carrying accelerant and a box of matches.

    Starmer has put the fire out and is starting to rebuild the foundations. The old man's solicitor threw in a Molatov cocktail earlier this week which Starmer threw back at her.
    Labour always faces the same problem: The proper ideological, anti-democratic, humanity hating left (like this bonkers lot in the article) can never win power or influence without being part of a party with a sane face and distinguished history, and Labour is the only option for this purpose. The Labour party can never permanently prevent the 1% of the population who follow this drivel from trying to run the party. They have, under Foot and Corbyn, for a time succeeded in doing so. Does Starmer have a plan for making it a proper, centrist only party, excluding the totalitarians? Something which the Tories have managed to do with regard to the fascist right.
  • LadyGLadyG Posts: 313

    kinabalu said:

    geoffw said:

    I think there's a language problem, namely that antisemitism is not understood to be a subcategory of racism but something separate. So you can happily be antisemitic and anti-racist at the same time.

    There is more than a grain of truth in this. Antisemitism stands apart in certain ways. It's to do with skin colour (Jews are white) and with the lack of perceived oppression. Also the complex matter of Israel.

    For some "anti-racists" on the Left, Israel is an obsession and this leads them into antisemitism. By contrast for some white supremacist types on the Right, Israel is also an obsession but is close to a love object.

    So you have anti-racists on the Left being racist because they hate Israel and hardcore racists on the Right loving Israel because they are racists.
    This is truly nuts. White Supremecists do not like Jews full stop, it is the core of white supremecist ideology that Jews are not part of their definition of white.

    On the other hand those on the left are keen to push "Jews are white" to imply Jews are the ultimate cause of "white supremecy", hence simply defending the right of Israel to exist is white supremecy.

    How about not trying to racialise everything?
    Unusually, I will defend Kinabalu here. He/she is partly right: there are plenty of hard right/far right people who are pro-Israel. I sometimes think they do it *just* to troll the Left

    And now, coffee
  • algarkirk said:

    Floater said:

    Jesus - this is a long read but the level of delusion on show here is surreal

    https://www.jacobinmag.com/2020/06/keir-starmer-rebecca-long-bailey-sacked-labour

    Mr Starmer might have a bit of a job on his hands

    To continue and correct the analogy, Starmer inherited the burning building from an old man carrying accelerant and a box of matches.

    Starmer has put the fire out and is starting to rebuild the foundations. The old man's solicitor threw in a Molatov cocktail earlier this week which Starmer threw back at her.
    Labour always faces the same problem: The proper ideological, anti-democratic, humanity hating left (like this bonkers lot in the article) can never win power or influence without being part of a party with a sane face and distinguished history, and Labour is the only option for this purpose. The Labour party can never permanently prevent the 1% of the population who follow this drivel from trying to run the party. They have, under Foot and Corbyn, for a time succeeded in doing so. Does Starmer have a plan for making it a proper, centrist only party, excluding the totalitarians? Something which the Tories have managed to do with regard to the fascist right.
    If he can manage to win an election/become PM/make progress, the party will vote in a successor in the same tradition.

    As long as the successor is more interesting/qualified than the left alternative (which they are now that Corbyn has gone, the left has Burgon and RLB left), the centrist will keep winning.

    I can tell you for a certainty, the majority of Labour members will not be voting in a left winger again.

    If Starmer manages to get a majority on the NEC, he'll hopefully change the membership rules as well.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 6,473
    "You did not listen to we"

    Beautiful.


  • Genuinely I'd have him in my top team any day, I find post-leadership Ed incredibly likeable.
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,130
    edited June 28
    LadyG said:

    kinabalu said:

    geoffw said:

    I think there's a language problem, namely that antisemitism is not understood to be a subcategory of racism but something separate. So you can happily be antisemitic and anti-racist at the same time.

    There is more than a grain of truth in this. Antisemitism stands apart in certain ways. It's to do with skin colour (Jews are white) and with the lack of perceived oppression. Also the complex matter of Israel.

    For some "anti-racists" on the Left, Israel is an obsession and this leads them into antisemitism. By contrast for some white supremacist types on the Right, Israel is also an obsession but is close to a love object.

    So you have anti-racists on the Left being racist because they hate Israel and hardcore racists on the Right loving Israel because they are racists.
    This is truly nuts. White Supremecists do not like Jews full stop, it is the core of white supremecist ideology that Jews are not part of their definition of white.

    On the other hand those on the left are keen to push "Jews are white" to imply Jews are the ultimate cause of "white supremecy", hence simply defending the right of Israel to exist is white supremecy.

    How about not trying to racialise everything?
    Unusually, I will defend Kinabalu here. He/she is partly right: there are plenty of hard right/far right people who are pro-Israel. I sometimes think they do it *just* to troll the Left

    And now, coffee
    People "on the right", yes. And, as you say it is mostly just reactionary to the left's obsession.

    If you have the misfortune to read what actual white supremacists say they are very much anti and sound little different to the hard left.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 5,700
    edited June 28
    Next season's PL odds are interesting:

    Man City 2.16
    Liverpool 2.66
    Man Utd 16
    Chelsea 17

    (Spurs and Arsenal not yet listed)

    So despite Liverpool losing just two games in two seasons and Man City being 23 points behind this season, Man City are favourites!

    Maybe reflects fact Man City expected to spend more this summer, though that may depend on CAS. CAS could go either way so seems unpredictable.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 1,696
    LadyG said:

    kinabalu said:

    geoffw said:

    I think there's a language problem, namely that antisemitism is not understood to be a subcategory of racism but something separate. So you can happily be antisemitic and anti-racist at the same time.

    There is more than a grain of truth in this. Antisemitism stands apart in certain ways. It's to do with skin colour (Jews are white) and with the lack of perceived oppression. Also the complex matter of Israel.

    For some "anti-racists" on the Left, Israel is an obsession and this leads them into antisemitism. By contrast for some white supremacist types on the Right, Israel is also an obsession but is close to a love object.

    So you have anti-racists on the Left being racist because they hate Israel and hardcore racists on the Right loving Israel because they are racists.
    This is truly nuts. White Supremecists do not like Jews full stop, it is the core of white supremecist ideology that Jews are not part of their definition of white.

    On the other hand those on the left are keen to push "Jews are white" to imply Jews are the ultimate cause of "white supremecy", hence simply defending the right of Israel to exist is white supremecy.

    How about not trying to racialise everything?
    Unusually, I will defend Kinabalu here. He/she is partly right: there are plenty of hard right/far right people who are pro-Israel. I sometimes think they do it *just* to troll the Left

    And now, coffee
    One of the good reasons for having a general sympathy towards Jewish people and Israel is that hatred of them unites fascists of both left and right. There are very few such causes.

    The common sense conclusion is that Jewish people must have some generally very good features and that the state of Israel must have something to be said for it.

    As this seems to be the opinion of nearly all centrists in politics, perhaps we should pay as much attention, if not more, to other political failings in the Middle East apart from Israel; and be grateful for the Jewish contribution to our society.



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