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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » My political pollster of the year:Lord Ashcroft

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited December 2013 in General

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » My political pollster of the year:Lord Ashcroft

We are at that time of the year when we look back at what’s happened in the past twelve months and highlight and reflect. PB will be no different. Over the next few days there’ll be a number of posts with “……of the Year” in the heading.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    edited December 2013
    Lord Polling of Ashcroft.

    New Chrimbo quiz question coming up ....
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774
    Sorry about the errors - I've just been trying and failing to implement a permanent fix for the 'wrong front page' bug
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,279
    Who was the first Yorkshire Captain to go to Australia?
  • Amazing how he's become so much more accepted, even respected by the anti-Tory frothers who used to shout Ashcroft, even in PMQs, as often as they now shake their heads at Crosby et al.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774
    10 second economic comment: UK inflation numbers generally slightly lower than expected, across the board, with PPI input and output, as well as the CPI and RPI figures all indicating very subdued inflation levels.

    UK house prices, otoh, came in ahead of expectations, up 5.5% YoY in November, from 3.8% in October.
  • dr_spyn said:

    Who was the first Yorkshire Captain to go to Australia?

    Lord Hawke, at a guess?
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,279
    Fpt: Deutsche Bahn own Chiltern Railways, Arriva Wales, and Cross Country passenger services, London Overground Rail, Grand Central and Tyne & Wear Metro. They now own EWS the largest freight operation in the UK.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Ashcroft interview, election night 2010:

    www.youtube.com/watch?v=tVLGDGvOsZA
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,279
    @David_Herdson a bit before his time. ;-)
  • O/T question for the PB massive.

    If you had a ~£500k mortgage balance and you were remortgaging now, house value about £1.1k, would you go for

    1/ a 2 year fix at 1.88%
    2/ a 5 year fix at 2.69%
    3/ a 10 year fix at 3.44%?

    Would you feel safe taking the 1.88 on the basis you'd still get a cheap deal in 2 years' time?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    People with bets on a Tory lead this year must be getting excited after last night's YouGov poll putting the lead at 2%.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,749
    edited December 2013
    'We all know where Lord Ashcroft stands politically but that does not stand in the way of his search for as accurate a picture.'

    Except when he strays across the border.

    Ashcroft Headline: Most Scots back nuclear deterrent.

    Actual poll: Question – In principle, do you support or oppose the United Kingdom having nuclear weapons?

    37 per cent of respondents said they supported
    48 per cent said they opposed
    15 per cent said they didn’t know

    His recent independence poll (cobbled together from 3 different polls taken over 6 months) was also the most useless contribution to the debate until Carmichael got on to his hind legs.
  • On topic, completely agree with Mike.

    The only issue I'd take with the tweet is that it's time independent. It's true that "it's what's happening in the marginal seats that matters", however, it's what's happening in *next election's* marginal seats that matters, which may or may not be the same as those that were marginal last time. There's probably been more churn in voting intention this parliament between parties outside the big two than at any since the 1980s. That could play havoc with working out which seats are the marginals next time (as per the last thread).
  • Yes, Lord Ashcroft has been providing a great public service.

    Off-topic: I see that Germany has finally managed to agree a government, three months after the election. Yippee, this now means at last I can collect on my Grand Coalition bets! Thanks to Nick Palmer for that - he posted some polling figures not long before the election which persuaded me to jump in at over 2/1.
  • FPT

    Bobajob

    the East Coast franchise did not perform better when Nationalised. In the initial franchise period the service was massively better than when it had been nationalised and the service has definitely dropped since it went back under Government control.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    edited December 2013
    Betfair most seats market unmoved by yougov

    Lab 1.81-1.82
    Con 2.26-2.3

  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,547

    O/T question for the PB massive.

    If you had a ~£500k mortgage balance and you were remortgaging now, house value about £1.1k, would you go for

    1/ a 2 year fix at 1.88%
    2/ a 5 year fix at 2.69%
    3/ a 10 year fix at 3.44%?

    Would you feel safe taking the 1.88 on the basis you'd still get a cheap deal in 2 years' time?

    I've recently remortgaged for 3 years at 2.39%. But if there is a big increase in rates over that period (which I don't expect) I have savings which could be used to make a capital payment after the 3 years to bring down the costs. If I was not in a position to do that I'd have gone for a longer fix. Fixed rates are at historic lows and it's hard to see them falling further.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Hi di Hi PBers .... ding dong, ding dong it's JackW's Chrimbo Quiz Time.

    So @AveryLP leads the charge for the first prize of an online copy of the 1997 Natural Law Party guide to yogic flying.

    Tuesday's Question :

    Who are these three MP's and what links them all :

    a. Was she high on her favourite number 390 "This Morning" ?

    b. Viewing further todgers - 72% was his favourite number but his number was up after "Operation Sea Lion" ?

    c. Was he purring over Abba's "Ring Ring" a 2004 cyclical hit or not ?
  • dr_spyn said:

    @David_Herdson a bit before his time. ;-)

    Cook. Lol.
  • MillsyMillsy Posts: 900
    Hopefully there is plenty more polling to come from Ashcroft at some point next year. We obviously have the referendum in Scotland, Euro elections and maybe some more marginal polling a bit closer to the election?

    On these Survation polls, is it worrying to Ukip supporters on here that the party has not come out on top in any of them?
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,949
    People like Lord Ashcroft who are able to comment on politics without letting their personal political beliefs overwhelm them are few, far between and extremely valuable. Long may Lord Ashcroft continue contributing so much both in polling and punditry.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,263

    O/T question for the PB massive.

    If you had a ~£500k mortgage balance and you were remortgaging now, house value about £1.1k, would you go for

    1/ a 2 year fix at 1.88%
    2/ a 5 year fix at 2.69%
    3/ a 10 year fix at 3.44%?

    Would you feel safe taking the 1.88 on the basis you'd still get a cheap deal in 2 years' time?

    Personally I'd feel fairly safe with 1.88 and a cheap short-term deal in 2 years' time, but that 10-year deal looks pretty tasty and I wonder if that will still be there - in other words, it's not that interest rates will shoot up in two years, but the expectations into the future may have shifted regardless of who wins in May 2015.

    (But I'm no expert, nor a financial adviser, do not rely on this, etc.)

  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited December 2013
    Last night's YouGov would give Labour 54 gains from the Tories on a uniform swing, which would take them from 258 to 312 seats. They'd need 14 gains from the LDs for a majority; that would require a swing from LD to Lab of 8%. The YouGov poll showed 12%. But of course there aren't that many targets from the LDs and personal votes are much more important for LD MPs.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    edited December 2013
    FPT: @SeanT Excellent blog post. Choudhary should have the book thrown at him wrt hate speech/incitement to religous/racial violence or the laws should be scrapped altogether. You can have one, or the other, but the disparity between his treatment and how a common racist on the clapham omnibus is treated is an utter disgrace.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,517
    dr_spyn said:

    Fpt: Deutsche Bahn own Chiltern Railways, Arriva Wales, and Cross Country passenger services, London Overground Rail, Grand Central and Tyne & Wear Metro. They now own EWS the largest freight operation in the UK.

    Are we sure we want DB involved in our railways?

    http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/12/12/eu-deutschebahn-idUSL6N0JR44L20131212

    ;-)
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842

    O/T question for the PB massive.

    If you had a ~£500k mortgage balance and you were remortgaging now, house value about £1.1k, would you go for

    1/ a 2 year fix at 1.88%
    2/ a 5 year fix at 2.69%
    3/ a 10 year fix at 3.44%?

    Would you feel safe taking the 1.88 on the basis you'd still get a cheap deal in 2 years' time?

    Personally I'd feel fairly safe with 1.88 and a cheap short-term deal in 2 years' time, but that 10-year deal looks pretty tasty and I wonder if that will still be there - in other words, it's not that interest rates will shoot up in two years, but the expectations into the future may have shifted regardless of who wins in May 2015.

    (But I'm no expert, nor a financial adviser, do not rely on this, etc.)

    I'd be worrid about my £499k loss on my house.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,279
    @David_Herdson The question did appear on TMS. Jms Cook of Whitby...
  • YouGov ‏@YouGov 7s
    Supporters of government cuts now outnumber opponents for the first time in three years - http://y-g.co/18wpRqF

    the tide is turning...
  • YouGov ‏@YouGov 7s
    Supporters of government cuts now outnumber opponents for the first time in three years - http://y-g.co/18wpRqF

    the tide is turning...

    Despite the best efforts of Polly Toynbee (FPT - her latest Guardian article) to portray the Government (well, specifically the blue part of it) as supporters of eugenics, and probably eaters of babies as well.
  • SeanT said:

    Pulpstar said:

    FPT: @SeanT Excellent blog post. Choudhary should have the book thrown at him wrt hate speech/incitement to religous/racial violence or the laws should be scrapped altogether. You can have one, or the other, but the disparity between his treatment and how a common racist on the clapham omnibus is treated is an utter disgrace.

    Ta. Personally I'd err on the side of liberty: I don't believe "hateful" remarks should require a jail term, not unless they directly incite violence against a particular person/group.

    Yet the Charlton fans got EIGHTEEN MONTHS for singing a racist song (however disgusting); and that Scotsman got twelve weeks for "impersonating a monkey" within 100 yards of a black footballer.

    Meanwhile Choudary freely walks the streets, spouting his terrorising bile.

    Either bang them all up, or none at all. It's this sense of a two tier, "protect the Muslim" justice system which is so dangerously corrosive.
    Fully agree with that. Nothing wrong with social ostracisation for racists: criticise, condemn and win the argument. Resorting to force can seem a tacit acceptance that they have a point to those of a victim mindset (and they're all of a victim mindset).
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774
    German ZEW sentiment indicator came in very strong today at 62.0, well up on November's 54.6.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited December 2013
    JackW said:

    Hi di Hi PBers .... ding dong, ding dong it's JackW's Chrimbo Quiz Time.

    So @AveryLP leads the charge for the first prize of an online copy of the 1997 Natural Law Party guide to yogic flying.

    Tuesday's Question :

    Who are these three MP's and what links them all :

    a. Was she high on her favourite number 390 "This Morning" ?

    b. Viewing further todgers - 72% was his favourite number but his number was up after "Operation Sea Lion" ?

    c. Was he purring over Abba's "Ring Ring" a 2004 cyclical hit or not ?

    a. Anna Soubry

    390 being NickP's unlucky number.
  • O/T question for the PB massive.

    If you had a ~£500k mortgage balance and you were remortgaging now, house value about £1.1k, would you go for

    1/ a 2 year fix at 1.88%
    2/ a 5 year fix at 2.69%
    3/ a 10 year fix at 3.44%?

    Would you feel safe taking the 1.88 on the basis you'd still get a cheap deal in 2 years' time?

    Personally I'd feel fairly safe with 1.88 and a cheap short-term deal in 2 years' time, but that 10-year deal looks pretty tasty and I wonder if that will still be there - in other words, it's not that interest rates will shoot up in two years, but the expectations into the future may have shifted regardless of who wins in May 2015.

    (But I'm no expert, nor a financial adviser, do not rely on this, etc.)

    @ Nick P and anothernick

    Thanks. What one has to intuit of course is what rates you'd be paying over 10 years under all three cases, picking the cheapest.

    It may be possible to take the 1.88 now and still get the 3.44ish in 2 years' time, for instance, per Nick P's view, in which case you gain 2 years' worth of the difference; about £12k. Quite nice.

    One factor I should have mentioned is that I took the present mortgage out 2 years ago for 16 years. The next will be for 14 years. A possible risk of taking say the 5-year deal is that after it ends in 2019 I'll then be looking for a 9-year mortgage term. Do those even exist?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    edited December 2013
    Retweeted your blog, Mr. T.

    I agree with you that offensive remarks should be permitted, but it's baffling that a man making bad jokes about Nelson Mandela can be arrested whereas the bearded cretin is untroubled by the police.

    Good job he never called one of them a pleb.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    JackW said:

    Hi di Hi PBers .... ding dong, ding dong it's JackW's Chrimbo Quiz Time.

    So @AveryLP leads the charge for the first prize of an online copy of the 1997 Natural Law Party guide to yogic flying.

    Tuesday's Question :

    Who are these three MP's and what links them all :

    a. Was she high on her favourite number 390 "This Morning" ?

    b. Viewing further todgers - 72% was his favourite number but his number was up after "Operation Sea Lion" ?

    c. Was he purring over Abba's "Ring Ring" a 2004 cyclical hit or not ?

    b. Sir Oswald Mosley?

    72% may have been his majority in Harrow at the 1918 election ??

    Sea Lion connection is that it was rumoured he was high up on Hitler's list of potential candidates for Reichskommisar in the event of a successful invasion.

  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Pollster of the Year ?

    I would go further. The Rehabilitation [ Rehabilitator? ] of the Year, more like.
  • SeanT said:

    Pulpstar said:

    FPT: @SeanT Excellent blog post. Choudhary should have the book thrown at him wrt hate speech/incitement to religous/racial violence or the laws should be scrapped altogether. You can have one, or the other, but the disparity between his treatment and how a common racist on the clapham omnibus is treated is an utter disgrace.

    Ta. Personally I'd err on the side of liberty: I don't believe "hateful" remarks should require a jail term, not unless they directly incite violence against a particular person/group.

    Either bang them all up, or none at all. It's this sense of a two tier, "protect the Muslim" justice system which is so dangerously corrosive.
    Fully agree with that. Nothing wrong with social ostracisation for racists: criticise, condemn and win the argument. Resorting to force can seem a tacit acceptance that they have a point to those of a victim mindset (and they're all of a victim mindset).
    Something that bothers me about this sort of thing is that if it is such a serious crime that requires jail time then there needs to be some sort of comeback for those who are wrongly accused of racism.

    You can't just go around claiming people are rapists or thieves without evidence, but it's ok to ruin someones life by calling them a racist.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    OK I'll assume you mean £1.1m ;)

    Looking at Gilt yields from http://www.fixedincomeinvestor.co.uk/x/bondtable.html?groupid=3 2 yrs is at 0.452, 5 yrs at 1.8, 10 yrs 2.8 (With a smidgen of interpolation)

    The 'Gaps' are 1.45, 0.89, 0.64 between the UK gilt yield and the interest rates. So hmm I'd say the 10 year deal looks the best of that lot.

    Not financial advice etc etc. IANYA etc etc.
  • SandraMSandraM Posts: 206
    Jack W: is c George Galloway - he appeared as a cat on Celebrity Big Brother (hence purr ) and has been married 4 times IIRC so the Ring-Ring bit.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    edited December 2013
    AveryLP said:

    JackW said:

    Hi di Hi PBers .... ding dong, ding dong it's JackW's Chrimbo Quiz Time.

    So @AveryLP leads the charge for the first prize of an online copy of the 1997 Natural Law Party guide to yogic flying.

    Tuesday's Question :

    Who are these three MP's and what links them all :

    a. Was she high on her favourite number 390 "This Morning" ?

    b. Viewing further todgers - 72% was his favourite number but his number was up after "Operation Sea Lion" ?

    c. Was he purring over Abba's "Ring Ring" a 2004 cyclical hit or not ?

    a. Anna Soubry

    390 being NickP's unlucky number.
    MP a is Anna Soubry, formerly a supporter of legalizing cannabis. She was also a presenter of ITV show "This Morning" Her majority is 390.

    MP b is not Mosely.

    @SandraM. Sorry not Galloway.

  • SeanT said:

    Pulpstar said:

    FPT: @SeanT Excellent blog post. Choudhary should have the book thrown at him wrt hate speech/incitement to religous/racial violence or the laws should be scrapped altogether. You can have one, or the other, but the disparity between his treatment and how a common racist on the clapham omnibus is treated is an utter disgrace.

    Ta. Personally I'd err on the side of liberty: I don't believe "hateful" remarks should require a jail term, not unless they directly incite violence against a particular person/group.

    Either bang them all up, or none at all. It's this sense of a two tier, "protect the Muslim" justice system which is so dangerously corrosive.
    Fully agree with that. Nothing wrong with social ostracisation for racists: criticise, condemn and win the argument. Resorting to force can seem a tacit acceptance that they have a point to those of a victim mindset (and they're all of a victim mindset).
    Something that bothers me about this sort of thing is that if it is such a serious crime that requires jail time then there needs to be some sort of comeback for those who are wrongly accused of racism.

    You can't just go around claiming people are rapists or thieves without evidence, but it's ok to ruin someones life by calling them a racist.
    We're in danger of getting this all the wrong way round and shutting down freedom of speech by slices.
  • SeanT said:

    Pulpstar said:

    FPT: @SeanT Excellent blog post. Choudhary should have the book thrown at him wrt hate speech/incitement to religous/racial violence or the laws should be scrapped altogether. You can have one, or the other, but the disparity between his treatment and how a common racist on the clapham omnibus is treated is an utter disgrace.

    Ta. Personally I'd err on the side of liberty: I don't believe "hateful" remarks should require a jail term, not unless they directly incite violence against a particular person/group.

    Either bang them all up, or none at all. It's this sense of a two tier, "protect the Muslim" justice system which is so dangerously corrosive.
    Fully agree with that. Nothing wrong with social ostracisation for racists: criticise, condemn and win the argument. Resorting to force can seem a tacit acceptance that they have a point to those of a victim mindset (and they're all of a victim mindset).
    Something that bothers me about this sort of thing is that if it is such a serious crime that requires jail time then there needs to be some sort of comeback for those who are wrongly accused of racism.

    You can't just go around claiming people are rapists or thieves without evidence, but it's ok to ruin someones life by calling them a racist.
    We're in danger of getting this all the wrong way round and shutting down freedom of speech by slices.
    I wouldn't disagree with that. I think the whole idea that you can be banged up for saying something offensive completely mental.
  • O/T question for the PB massive.

    If you had a ~£500k mortgage balance and you were remortgaging now, house value about £1.1k, would you go for

    1/ a 2 year fix at 1.88%
    2/ a 5 year fix at 2.69%
    3/ a 10 year fix at 3.44%?

    Would you feel safe taking the 1.88 on the basis you'd still get a cheap deal in 2 years' time?

    Personally I'd feel fairly safe with 1.88 and a cheap short-term deal in 2 years' time, but that 10-year deal looks pretty tasty and I wonder if that will still be there - in other words, it's not that interest rates will shoot up in two years, but the expectations into the future may have shifted regardless of who wins in May 2015.

    (But I'm no expert, nor a financial adviser, do not rely on this, etc.)

    I am however - albeit this is not advice but just generic opinion as I don't know your circumstances. Nick is right though it's expectations that matter not the current Base Rate.

    I woudn't normally suggest fixing for less than 3-years these days & assuming you don't mind being tied in for that period. 2 years goes in no time, remortgage fees are often high especially on a property of that value, and crucialy what if the world has changed, 4% more on a debt that size is a massive impact on someone's budget potentially and there's a lot of 'value' in certainty even if in hindsight you'd have been better off playing the interest rate game.

    The best I see are:

    1. A 2-yr fix at 1.64%
    2. A 3-yr fix at 2.19%
    4. A 5-yr fix at 2.69% is the best I can see with a few lenders.
    5. A 10-yr fix - the best my system shows is 3.84%? Who is the 3.44% with?
  • SeanT said:

    Pulpstar said:

    FPT: @SeanT Excellent blog post. Choudhary should have the book thrown at him wrt hate speech/incitement to religous/racial violence or the laws should be scrapped altogether. You can have one, or the other, but the disparity between his treatment and how a common racist on the clapham omnibus is treated is an utter disgrace.

    Ta. Personally I'd err on the side of liberty: I don't believe "hateful" remarks should require a jail term, not unless they directly incite violence against a particular person/group.

    Either bang them all up, or none at all. It's this sense of a two tier, "protect the Muslim" justice system which is so dangerously corrosive.
    Fully agree with that. Nothing wrong with social ostracisation for racists: criticise, condemn and win the argument. Resorting to force can seem a tacit acceptance that they have a point to those of a victim mindset (and they're all of a victim mindset).
    Something that bothers me about this sort of thing is that if it is such a serious crime that requires jail time then there needs to be some sort of comeback for those who are wrongly accused of racism.

    You can't just go around claiming people are rapists or thieves without evidence, but it's ok to ruin someones life by calling them a racist.
    We're in danger of getting this all the wrong way round and shutting down freedom of speech by slices.
    I wouldn't disagree with that. I think the whole idea that you can be banged up for saying something offensive completely mental.
    It's an idea from the left, which typically argues that there is only one permissible view on any matter, and simply will not tolerate any other.

    When did you last hear anyone say "It's a free country, I'll say what I like," or even "I'm entitled to my opinion"?
  • O/T question for the PB massive.

    If you had a ~£500k mortgage balance and you were remortgaging now, house value about £1.1k, would you go for

    1/ a 2 year fix at 1.88%
    2/ a 5 year fix at 2.69%
    3/ a 10 year fix at 3.44%?

    Would you feel safe taking the 1.88 on the basis you'd still get a cheap deal in 2 years' time?

    Personally I'd feel fairly safe with 1.88 and a cheap short-term deal in 2 years' time, but that 10-year deal looks pretty tasty and I wonder if that will still be there - in other words, it's not that interest rates will shoot up in two years, but the expectations into the future may have shifted regardless of who wins in May 2015.

    (But I'm no expert, nor a financial adviser, do not rely on this, etc.)

    @ Nick P and anothernick

    Thanks. What one has to intuit of course is what rates you'd be paying over 10 years under all three cases, picking the cheapest.

    It may be possible to take the 1.88 now and still get the 3.44ish in 2 years' time, for instance, per Nick P's view, in which case you gain 2 years' worth of the difference; about £12k. Quite nice.

    One factor I should have mentioned is that I took the present mortgage out 2 years ago for 16 years. The next will be for 14 years. A possible risk of taking say the 5-year deal is that after it ends in 2019 I'll then be looking for a 9-year mortgage term. Do those even exist?
    Yes re 9 years - no problem there.

    Assuming its repayment then the debt will be a lot smaller by then too.
  • SeanT said:

    Pulpstar said:

    FPT: @SeanT Excellent blog post. Choudhary should have the book thrown at him wrt hate speech/incitement to religous/racial violence or the laws should be scrapped altogether. You can have one, or the other, but the disparity between his treatment and how a common racist on the clapham omnibus is treated is an utter disgrace.


    Either bang them all up, or none at all. It's this sense of a two tier, "protect the Muslim" justice system which is so dangerously corrosive.
    Fully agree with that. Nothing wrong with social ostracisation for racists: criticise, condemn and win the argument. Resorting to force can seem a tacit acceptance that they have a point to those of a victim mindset (and they're all of a victim mindset).
    Something that bothers me about this sort of thing is that if it is such a serious crime that requires jail time then there needs to be some sort of comeback for those who are wrongly accused of racism.

    You can't just go around claiming people are rapists or thieves without evidence, but it's ok to ruin someones life by calling them a racist.
    We're in danger of getting this all the wrong way round and shutting down freedom of speech by slices.
    I wouldn't disagree with that. I think the whole idea that you can be banged up for saying something offensive completely mental.
    It's an idea from the left, which typically argues that there is only one permissible view on any matter, and simply will not tolerate any other.

    When did you last hear anyone say "It's a free country, I'll say what I like," or even "I'm entitled to my opinion"?
    Yes and they try and discredit or shut down any view that they don't like. Hence the whole phone hacking circus which was clearly a transparent attempt to get rid of Murdoch from the media.

    In the US the left are dying to get rid of Fox News and it is only a matter of time before they succeed.
  • O/T question for the PB massive.

    If you had a ~£500k mortgage balance and you were remortgaging now, house value about £1.1k, would you go for

    1/ a 2 year fix at 1.88%
    2/ a 5 year fix at 2.69%
    3/ a 10 year fix at 3.44%?

    Would you feel safe taking the 1.88 on the basis you'd still get a cheap deal in 2 years' time?

    Personally I'd feel fairly safe with 1.88 and a cheap short-term deal in 2 years' time, but that 10-year deal looks pretty tasty and I wonder if that will still be there - in other words, it's not that interest rates will shoot up in two years, but the expectations into the future may have shifted regardless of who wins in May 2015.

    (But I'm no expert, nor a financial adviser, do not rely on this, etc.)

    I am however - albeit this is not advice but just generic opinion as I don't know your circumstances. Nick is right though it's expectations that matter not the current Base Rate.

    I woudn't normally suggest fixing for less than 3-years these days & assuming you don't mind being tied in for that period. 2 years goes in no time, remortgage fees are often high especially on a property of that value, and crucialy what if the world has changed, 4% more on a debt that size is a massive impact on someone's budget potentially and there's a lot of 'value' in certainty even if in hindsight you'd have been better off playing the interest rate game.

    The best I see are:

    1. A 2-yr fix at 1.64%
    2. A 3-yr fix at 2.19%
    4. A 5-yr fix at 2.69% is the best I can see with a few lenders.
    5. A 10-yr fix - the best my system shows is 3.84%? Who is the 3.44% with?
    You could always go for the 2-year fix but budget and pay monthly assuming the rate was say the 2.69% or 3% perhaps and so make overpayments now and be cushioned a little against the risk of higher rates when you come out of the fix knowing you've been used to living on the cost of the higher rate anyway. Assumes the deal lets you make that sort of overpayment of course.

    Offset mortgages might appeal too if you have emergency funds, cash lying around which you don't want to tie up as equity in the property?
  • JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,400

    O/T question for the PB massive.

    If you had a ~£500k mortgage balance and you were remortgaging now, house value about £1.1k, would you go for

    1/ a 2 year fix at 1.88%
    2/ a 5 year fix at 2.69%
    3/ a 10 year fix at 3.44%?

    Would you feel safe taking the 1.88 on the basis you'd still get a cheap deal in 2 years' time?

    Personally I'd feel fairly safe with 1.88 and a cheap short-term deal in 2 years' time, but that 10-year deal looks pretty tasty and I wonder if that will still be there - in other words, it's not that interest rates will shoot up in two years, but the expectations into the future may have shifted regardless of who wins in May 2015.

    (But I'm no expert, nor a financial adviser, do not rely on this, etc.)

    I am however - albeit this is not advice but just generic opinion as I don't know your circumstances. Nick is right though it's expectations that matter not the current Base Rate.

    I woudn't normally suggest fixing for less than 3-years these days & assuming you don't mind being tied in for that period. 2 years goes in no time, remortgage fees are often high especially on a property of that value, and crucialy what if the world has changed, 4% more on a debt that size is a massive impact on someone's budget potentially and there's a lot of 'value' in certainty even if in hindsight you'd have been better off playing the interest rate game.

    The best I see are:

    1. A 2-yr fix at 1.64%
    2. A 3-yr fix at 2.19%
    4. A 5-yr fix at 2.69% is the best I can see with a few lenders.
    5. A 10-yr fix - the best my system shows is 3.84%? Who is the 3.44% with?
    Offset mortgages might appeal too if you have emergency funds, cash lying around which you don't want to tie up as equity in the property?


    I would have thought that for self-assessed tax payers, an offset mortgage would always be worthwhile due to the need to hold onto lots of cash over the course of the year?
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    JackW said:

    Hi di Hi PBers .... ding dong, ding dong it's JackW's Chrimbo Quiz Time.

    So @AveryLP leads the charge for the first prize of an online copy of the 1997 Natural Law Party guide to yogic flying.

    Tuesday's Question :

    Who are these three MP's and what links them all :

    a. Was she high on her favourite number 390 "This Morning" ?

    b. Viewing further todgers - 72% was his favourite number but his number was up after "Operation Sea Lion" ?

    c. Was he purring over Abba's "Ring Ring" a 2004 cyclical hit or not ?

    Is c. Liam Byrne? Won 2004 by-election in Brum Hodge Hill, campaigned against use of mobile phones in cars then got fined himself for using his own mobile when driving in 2007?

    Can't work out the 72% though.

  • JonathanD said:

    O/T question for the PB massive.

    If you had a ~£500k mortgage balance and you were remortgaging now, house value about £1.1k, would you go for

    1/ a 2 year fix at 1.88%
    2/ a 5 year fix at 2.69%
    3/ a 10 year fix at 3.44%?

    Would you feel safe taking the 1.88 on the basis you'd still get a cheap deal in 2 years' time?

    Personally I'd feel fairly safe with 1.88 and a cheap short-term deal in 2 years' time, but that 10-year deal looks pretty tasty and I wonder if that will still be there - in other words, it's not that interest rates will shoot up in two years, but the expectations into the future may have shifted regardless of who wins in May 2015.

    (But I'm no expert, nor a financial adviser, do not rely on this, etc.)

    I am however - albeit this is not advice but just generic opinion as I don't know your circumstances. Nick is right though it's expectations that matter not the current Base Rate.

    I woudn't normally suggest fixing for less than 3-years these days & assuming you don't mind being tied in for that period. 2 years goes in no time, remortgage fees are often high especially on a property of that value, and crucialy what if the world has changed, 4% more on a debt that size is a massive impact on someone's budget potentially and there's a lot of 'value' in certainty even if in hindsight you'd have been better off playing the interest rate game.

    The best I see are:

    1. A 2-yr fix at 1.64%
    2. A 3-yr fix at 2.19%
    4. A 5-yr fix at 2.69% is the best I can see with a few lenders.
    5. A 10-yr fix - the best my system shows is 3.84%? Who is the 3.44% with?
    Offset mortgages might appeal too if you have emergency funds, cash lying around which you don't want to tie up as equity in the property?


    I would have thought that for self-assessed tax payers, an offset mortgage would always be worthwhile due to the need to hold onto lots of cash over the course of the year?
    Could be, not always - depends on the extra cost for the offset deal versus the normal deal and the amount of cash available to be used for the offsetting. If you are a higher or additional rate taxpayer, offsetting is a v attractive option for your savings, if you have enough cash to put to work.
  • Mr. Herdson, by large slices.

    Miss Sulphate (er, it is Miss?), "I think the whole idea that you can be banged up for saying something offensive completely mental." - I entirely agree. We must maximise freedom of speech.

    Not everything is legitimate for public discourse (those in 2011 trying to stir up more riots were rightly prosecuted, and those calling for lashings for shopkeepers deserve punishment) but it seems barking mad that a man using the term 'Pikey' in a tweet might be referred to the police.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Q. On Ashcroft - he does seem to do a lot of polling but what I don't see a lot of is his recommendations for the Cons based on the polling - is that kept private ?

    The one policy he does bang on about is cutting back on foreign aid - which I agree with.
  • SeanT said:

    My preacherman blog has been shared 500 times in two hours. Slightly viral. Might do a 1k-er today.

    I wonder why they turned the comments off?

    *innocent face*
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    @Scrapheap_as_was Could Spurs hurry up and appoint someone as manager - have lots of moolah tied up in Betfair on the result :D
  • Pulpstar said:

    @Scrapheap_as_was Could Spurs hurry up and appoint someone as manager - have lots of moolah tied up in Betfair on the result :D

    We're waiting to see if Wenger wants a new job in the summer....
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    AveryLP said:

    JackW said:

    Hi di Hi PBers .... ding dong, ding dong it's JackW's Chrimbo Quiz Time.

    So @AveryLP leads the charge for the first prize of an online copy of the 1997 Natural Law Party guide to yogic flying.

    Tuesday's Question :

    Who are these three MP's and what links them all :

    a. Was she high on her favourite number 390 "This Morning" ?

    b. Viewing further todgers - 72% was his favourite number but his number was up after "Operation Sea Lion" ?

    c. Was he purring over Abba's "Ring Ring" a 2004 cyclical hit or not ?

    Is c. Liam Byrne? Won 2004 by-election in Brum Hodge Hill, campaigned against use of mobile phones in cars then got fined himself for using his own mobile when driving in 2007?

    Can't work out the 72% though.

    No. Sorry not Liam Byrne.

    Let's add a further clue to each remaining MP

    b. Sadly he didn't manage 72% four times running in 1953.

    c. He'd certainly like to lose his Ex status.

  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,074
    rcs1000 said:

    Sorry about the errors - I've just been trying and failing to implement a permanent fix for the 'wrong front page' bug

    RCS: I use www7.politicalbetting.com and that seems to work every time i.e. it brings up the latest thread, though I do notice that it defaults to the www1.pb moniker.

    Hope that helps maybe?

  • Mr. Herdson, by large slices.

    Miss Sulphate (er, it is Miss?), "I think the whole idea that you can be banged up for saying something offensive completely mental." - I entirely agree. We must maximise freedom of speech.

    Not everything is legitimate for public discourse (those in 2011 trying to stir up more riots were rightly prosecuted, and those calling for lashings for shopkeepers deserve punishment) but it seems barking mad that a man using the term 'Pikey' in a tweet might be referred to the police.

    Er...no not had the operation yet so Mr it is.

    I'm not even convinced that those calling for violence should be prosecuted to be honest, but agree that it is different to just bog standard "racist" speech.
  • JackW said:

    AveryLP said:

    JackW said:

    Hi di Hi PBers .... ding dong, ding dong it's JackW's Chrimbo Quiz Time.

    So @AveryLP leads the charge for the first prize of an online copy of the 1997 Natural Law Party guide to yogic flying.

    Tuesday's Question :

    Who are these three MP's and what links them all :

    a. Was she high on her favourite number 390 "This Morning" ?

    b. Viewing further todgers - 72% was his favourite number but his number was up after "Operation Sea Lion" ?

    c. Was he purring over Abba's "Ring Ring" a 2004 cyclical hit or not ?

    Is c. Liam Byrne? Won 2004 by-election in Brum Hodge Hill, campaigned against use of mobile phones in cars then got fined himself for using his own mobile when driving in 2007?

    Can't work out the 72% though.

    No. Sorry not Liam Byrne.

    Let's add a further clue to each remaining MP

    b. Sadly he didn't manage 72% four times running in 1953.

    c. He'd certainly like to lose his Ex status.

    b Isn't Seymour Cocks is it???
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    JackW said:

    AveryLP said:

    JackW said:

    Hi di Hi PBers .... ding dong, ding dong it's JackW's Chrimbo Quiz Time.

    So @AveryLP leads the charge for the first prize of an online copy of the 1997 Natural Law Party guide to yogic flying.

    Tuesday's Question :

    Who are these three MP's and what links them all :

    a. Was she high on her favourite number 390 "This Morning" ?

    b. Viewing further todgers - 72% was his favourite number but his number was up after "Operation Sea Lion" ?

    c. Was he purring over Abba's "Ring Ring" a 2004 cyclical hit or not ?

    Is c. Liam Byrne? Won 2004 by-election in Brum Hodge Hill, campaigned against use of mobile phones in cars then got fined himself for using his own mobile when driving in 2007?

    Can't work out the 72% though.

    No. Sorry not Liam Byrne.

    Let's add a further clue to each remaining MP

    b. Sadly he didn't manage 72% four times running in 1953.

    c. He'd certainly like to lose his Ex status.

    b. *smiles*. Bear Grylls's great granddad lost at sea.

  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    edited December 2013
    Millsy said:



    On these Survation polls, is it worrying to Ukip supporters on here that the party has not come out on top in any of them?

    1. UKIP seem to be running full page ads on the results in at least one newspaper. "UKIP Takes Votes from All Parties"

    twitter.com/Tim_Aker/status/412863840209346560

    twitter.com/UKIP/status/412866113148444672/photo/1

    2. A bit, but these are polls, not election results. A week before the May 2013 elections Survation gave UKIP 16% support.


  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    edited December 2013

    JackW said:

    AveryLP said:

    JackW said:

    Hi di Hi PBers .... ding dong, ding dong it's JackW's Chrimbo Quiz Time.

    So @AveryLP leads the charge for the first prize of an online copy of the 1997 Natural Law Party guide to yogic flying.

    Tuesday's Question :

    Who are these three MP's and what links them all :

    a. Was she high on her favourite number 390 "This Morning" ?

    b. Viewing further todgers - 72% was his favourite number but his number was up after "Operation Sea Lion" ?

    c. Was he purring over Abba's "Ring Ring" a 2004 cyclical hit or not ?

    Is c. Liam Byrne? Won 2004 by-election in Brum Hodge Hill, campaigned against use of mobile phones in cars then got fined himself for using his own mobile when driving in 2007?

    Can't work out the 72% though.

    No. Sorry not Liam Byrne.

    Let's add a further clue to each remaining MP

    b. Sadly he didn't manage 72% four times running in 1953.

    c. He'd certainly like to lose his Ex status.

    b Isn't Seymour Cocks is it???
    It is !!

    He was an MP from 1929-1953 when he died. He was on Hitlers infamous list of those to be "detained" after Operation Sea Lion. Seymour Cocks achieved 72% of the vote in the 1945, 50 and 51 general elections.

    Just c left - probably the easiest.

  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    My preacherman blog has been shared 500 times in two hours. Slightly viral. Might do a 1k-er today.

    I wonder why they turned the comments off?

    *innocent face*
    I predicted they'd turn the comments off: and so they did. It's because blogs on this and related subjects attract nutters from both sides - racists and Islamists, and the moderators cannot cope with the traffic of comments that need deleting.
    Potential reason he may not be prosecuted is that he is an MI5 informer.
  • BBC releases list of most complained about TV moments:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-25413389

    Of course, there have been over a thousand complaints about the deranged amount of coverage Mandela's death/funeral/memorial/friends/relatives/people who quite liked him have got. But as that's not a single moment it doesn't make the list.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,211
    JackW said:

    JackW said:

    AveryLP said:

    JackW said:

    Hi di Hi PBers .... ding dong, ding dong it's JackW's Chrimbo Quiz Time.

    So @AveryLP leads the charge for the first prize of an online copy of the 1997 Natural Law Party guide to yogic flying.

    Tuesday's Question :

    Who are these three MP's and what links them all :

    a. Was she high on her favourite number 390 "This Morning" ?

    b. Viewing further todgers - 72% was his favourite number but his number was up after "Operation Sea Lion" ?

    c. Was he purring over Abba's "Ring Ring" a 2004 cyclical hit or not ?

    Is c. Liam Byrne? Won 2004 by-election in Brum Hodge Hill, campaigned against use of mobile phones in cars then got fined himself for using his own mobile when driving in 2007?

    Can't work out the 72% though.

    No. Sorry not Liam Byrne.

    Let's add a further clue to each remaining MP

    b. Sadly he didn't manage 72% four times running in 1953.

    c. He'd certainly like to lose his Ex status.

    b Isn't Seymour Cocks is it???
    It is !!

    He was an MP from 1929-1953 when he died. He was on Hitlers infamous list of those to be "detained" after Operation Sea Lion. Seymour Cocks achieved 72% of the vote in the 1945, 50 and 51 general elections.

    Just c left - probably the easiest.

    Looks as if the connection between all three is Broxtowe so I guess Nick Palmer is the other (though why, Sorry, I haven't a clue!).
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603
    rcs1000 said:

    Sorry about the errors - I've just been trying and failing to implement a permanent fix for the 'wrong front page' bug

    The solution is simple, just put an auto redirect/correct from politicalbetting.com -> www.politicalbetting.com, the latter works without any issues.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,074
    SeanT said:

    Pulpstar said:

    FPT: @SeanT Excellent blog post. Choudhary should have the book thrown at him wrt hate speech/incitement to religous/racial violence or the laws should be scrapped altogether. You can have one, or the other, but the disparity between his treatment and how a common racist on the clapham omnibus is treated is an utter disgrace.

    Ta. Personally I'd err on the side of liberty: I don't believe "hateful" remarks should require a jail term, not unless they directly incite violence against a particular person/group.

    Yet the Charlton fans got EIGHTEEN MONTHS for singing a racist song (however disgusting); and that Scotsman got twelve weeks for "impersonating a monkey" within 100 yards of a black footballer.

    Meanwhile Choudary freely walks the streets, spouting his terrorising bile.

    Either bang them all up, or none at all. It's this sense of a two tier, "protect the Muslim" justice system which is so dangerously corrosive.
    I quite agree.

    Laws against "offensive" speech are ridiculous but if they exist should be enforced equally against all.

    However, I'd have thought that Choudhary should be prosecuted in this case for incitement to violence. He is clearly threatening people carrying on a lawful activity with violence if they don't do something he wants. I really can see no good reason why the police aren't investigating.

  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    edited December 2013
    JohnO said:

    JackW said:

    JackW said:

    AveryLP said:

    JackW said:

    Hi di Hi PBers .... ding dong, ding dong it's JackW's Chrimbo Quiz Time.

    So @AveryLP leads the charge for the first prize of an online copy of the 1997 Natural Law Party guide to yogic flying.

    Tuesday's Question :

    Who are these three MP's and what links them all :

    a. Was she high on her favourite number 390 "This Morning" ?

    b. Viewing further todgers - 72% was his favourite number but his number was up after "Operation Sea Lion" ?

    c. Was he purring over Abba's "Ring Ring" a 2004 cyclical hit or not ?

    Is c. Liam Byrne? Won 2004 by-election in Brum Hodge Hill, campaigned against use of mobile phones in cars then got fined himself for using his own mobile when driving in 2007?

    Can't work out the 72% though.

    No. Sorry not Liam Byrne.

    Let's add a further clue to each remaining MP

    b. Sadly he didn't manage 72% four times running in 1953.

    c. He'd certainly like to lose his Ex status.

    b Isn't Seymour Cocks is it???
    It is !!

    He was an MP from 1929-1953 when he died. He was on Hitlers infamous list of those to be "detained" after Operation Sea Lion. Seymour Cocks achieved 72% of the vote in the 1945, 50 and 51 general elections.

    Just c left - probably the easiest.

    Looks as if the connection between all three is Broxtowe so I guess Nick Palmer is the other (though why, Sorry, I haven't a clue!).
    Correct Oh Hersham Wonder.

    Nick Palmer is MP c

    PB's famous pussy (purring)lover Nick Palmers 2004 private bill on cycle(ical) bells (ring ring) was adopted and passed.

    And Broxtowe is the constituency they all served.



  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    SeanT said:

    TGOHF said:

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    My preacherman blog has been shared 500 times in two hours. Slightly viral. Might do a 1k-er today.

    I wonder why they turned the comments off?

    *innocent face*
    I predicted they'd turn the comments off: and so they did. It's because blogs on this and related subjects attract nutters from both sides - racists and Islamists, and the moderators cannot cope with the traffic of comments that need deleting.
    Potential reason he may not be prosecuted is that he is an MI5 informer.
    I've read that particular bit of nuttiness elsewhere; if he is an informer then he's not very good, as he failed to inform MI5 that two of his acolytes were going to behead a soldier on a street in Woolwich.

    It's nonsense.
    Still - keep it out there - one of his own might believe it.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    I'm sure Nick Palmer had the quiz in the bag within minutes .... cough ....

    And hopes to emulate Seymour Cock's 72% of the vote come may 2015 !!
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    edited December 2013
    JackW said:

    I'm sure Nick Palmer had the quiz in the bag within minutes .... cough ....

    And hopes to emulate Seymour Cock's 72% of the vote come may 2015 !!

    The latter did have an unfortunate name. Pity the Speaker of the House calling him to make a speech.

  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774
    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sorry about the errors - I've just been trying and failing to implement a permanent fix for the 'wrong front page' bug

    The solution is simple, just put an auto redirect/correct from politicalbetting.com -> www.politicalbetting.com, the latter works without any issues.
    I will play with my httpd.conf...
  • BobajobBobajob Posts: 1,536

    FPT

    Bobajob

    the East Coast franchise did not perform better when Nationalised. In the initial franchise period the service was massively better than when it had been nationalised and the service has definitely dropped since it went back under Government control.

    FPT

    Bobajob

    the East Coast franchise did not perform better when Nationalised. In the initial franchise period the service was massively better than when it had been nationalised and the service has definitely dropped since it went back under Government control.

    WRONG. Dead wrong, Richard.

    http://www.thejournal.co.uk/news/north-east-news/good-year-east-coast-mainline-4404292

    "Turnover for the year amounted to £665.8m, an increase of £20m, leaving a profit before tax and service payments to the Department for Transport of £195.7m, an increase of £13m.

    "Passenger journeys at East Coast, which runs trains from London to the North East, Yorkshire and Scotland, increased by 2.1%, while customer satisfaction rose by 2%, and the latest punctuality figures were its best since records began in 1999."
  • BobajobBobajob Posts: 1,536
    surbiton said:

    Pollster of the Year ?

    I would go further. The Rehabilitation [ Rehabilitator? ] of the Year, more like.

    Stuart Truth is the frontrunner.
  • GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323
    Can someone confirm/deny this for me? I think before today's figures annualised growth in wages - at least on some measure - was 2.2%. Inflation's now at 2.1% (CPI). What's the preferred comparison of Ed Miliband (the 40 of 41 months one)?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,765

    SeanT said:

    Pulpstar said:

    FPT: @SeanT Excellent blog post. Choudhary should have the book thrown at him wrt hate speech/incitement to religous/racial violence or the laws should be scrapped altogether. You can have one, or the other, but the disparity between his treatment and how a common racist on the clapham omnibus is treated is an utter disgrace.

    Ta. Personally I'd err on the side of liberty: I don't believe "hateful" remarks should require a jail term, not unless they directly incite violence against a particular person/group.

    Yet the Charlton fans got EIGHTEEN MONTHS for singing a racist song (however disgusting); and that Scotsman got twelve weeks for "impersonating a monkey" within 100 yards of a black footballer.

    Meanwhile Choudary freely walks the streets, spouting his terrorising bile.

    Either bang them all up, or none at all. It's this sense of a two tier, "protect the Muslim" justice system which is so dangerously corrosive.
    Fully agree with that. Nothing wrong with social ostracisation for racists: criticise, condemn and win the argument. Resorting to force can seem a tacit acceptance that they have a point to those of a victim mindset (and they're all of a victim mindset).
    You can stab someone and get less than eighteen months.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    "My only minor quibble is that I think he should be including UKIP in his main party prompts."

    I thought the Ashcroft polls avoiding prompting for any party.
  • Bobajob said:

    FPT

    Bobajob

    the East Coast franchise did not perform better when Nationalised. In the initial franchise period the service was massively better than when it had been nationalised and the service has definitely dropped since it went back under Government control.

    FPT

    Bobajob

    the East Coast franchise did not perform better when Nationalised. In the initial franchise period the service was massively better than when it had been nationalised and the service has definitely dropped since it went back under Government control.

    WRONG. Dead wrong, Richard.

    http://www.thejournal.co.uk/news/north-east-news/good-year-east-coast-mainline-4404292

    "Turnover for the year amounted to £665.8m, an increase of £20m, leaving a profit before tax and service payments to the Department for Transport of £195.7m, an increase of £13m.

    "Passenger journeys at East Coast, which runs trains from London to the North East, Yorkshire and Scotland, increased by 2.1%, while customer satisfaction rose by 2%, and the latest punctuality figures were its best since records began in 1999."
    It's a pretty small sample size. Are they taking into account the loss of the franchise money into account?

    Looking at the big picture, passenger numbers have grown massively since privatisation after having been falling for years beforehand.
  • Better Together donors 'risk tarnishing campaign' to keep Scotland in UK
    ... Echoing anxieties from other Scottish trade unionists about Tory involvement in the campaign, the GMB Scotland official Richard Leonard said his union had decided to effectively boycott Better Together in protest at UK government policies.

    As the train drivers union Aslef distanced itself from the GMB, Leonard said his union planned instead to campaign against independence on its own and support the Labour party's official pro-UK campaign United for Labour.

    ... Aslef highlighted a serious split within the Labour movement over Better Together, despite it being led by the former chancellor Alistair Darling and run by former Labour officials including Blair McDougall, who co-ordinated David Miliband's party leadership bid.

    Sources in other prominent unions which oppose independence said privately there were widespread anxieties about Better Together's close ties to the Tories and their Liberal Democrat coalition partners.

    This is partly because Labour voters are seen as the most likely to back independence, apart from the SNP. The former Labour leader of Strathclyde regional council Sir Charles Gray backed a yes vote last month, and some polls suggest that up to 18% of Labour supporters would vote yes next September
    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2013/dec/16/better-together-donor-list-scottish-independence
  • BobajobBobajob Posts: 1,536

    Bobajob said:

    FPT

    Bobajob

    the East Coast franchise did not perform better when Nationalised. In the initial franchise period the service was massively better than when it had been nationalised and the service has definitely dropped since it went back under Government control.

    FPT

    Bobajob

    the East Coast franchise did not perform better when Nationalised. In the initial franchise period the service was massively better than when it had been nationalised and the service has definitely dropped since it went back under Government control.

    WRONG. Dead wrong, Richard.

    http://www.thejournal.co.uk/news/north-east-news/good-year-east-coast-mainline-4404292

    "Turnover for the year amounted to £665.8m, an increase of £20m, leaving a profit before tax and service payments to the Department for Transport of £195.7m, an increase of £13m.

    "Passenger journeys at East Coast, which runs trains from London to the North East, Yorkshire and Scotland, increased by 2.1%, while customer satisfaction rose by 2%, and the latest punctuality figures were its best since records began in 1999."
    It's a pretty small sample size. Are they taking into account the loss of the franchise money into account?

    Looking at the big picture, passenger numbers have grown massively since privatisation after having been falling for years beforehand.
    And so they should have bloody well done, given the vast increase in the subsidy!

    Richard's contention was specifically about East Coast since it was renationalised. His contention was provably wrong.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,517
    Bobajob said:

    Bobajob said:

    FPT

    Bobajob

    the East Coast franchise did not perform better when Nationalised. In the initial franchise period the service was massively better than when it had been nationalised and the service has definitely dropped since it went back under Government control.

    FPT

    Bobajob

    the East Coast franchise did not perform better when Nationalised. In the initial franchise period the service was massively better than when it had been nationalised and the service has definitely dropped since it went back under Government control.

    WRONG. Dead wrong, Richard.

    http://www.thejournal.co.uk/news/north-east-news/good-year-east-coast-mainline-4404292

    "Turnover for the year amounted to £665.8m, an increase of £20m, leaving a profit before tax and service payments to the Department for Transport of £195.7m, an increase of £13m.

    "Passenger journeys at East Coast, which runs trains from London to the North East, Yorkshire and Scotland, increased by 2.1%, while customer satisfaction rose by 2%, and the latest punctuality figures were its best since records began in 1999."
    It's a pretty small sample size. Are they taking into account the loss of the franchise money into account?

    Looking at the big picture, passenger numbers have grown massively since privatisation after having been falling for years beforehand.
    And so they should have bloody well done, given the vast increase in the subsidy!

    Richard's contention was specifically about East Coast since it was renationalised. His contention was provably wrong.
    Hmmm, again you link subsidy and passenger growth. In the last thread, you said subsidy had doubled, and so had passenger numbers. If those two facts are true, then the privatised industry is just as efficient wrt subsidy as BR was.

    Which is rather a problem for your argument.

    You also have to be careful about the figures. Several different things have to be factored in: for instance, one-off infrastructure costs to expand the network such as the WCML upgrade or Crossrail, and the day-to-day running and maintenance costs.

    When you discuss EC's headline return to taxpayers, I'm surprised you do not acknowledge the role the Open Access operators have on that route, or the fact that South West Trains returned even more.

    If the railways were renationalised, would you move National Rail's debt back onto the government's books?
  • JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,400
    Bobajob said:

    FPT

    Bobajob

    the East Coast franchise did not perform better when Nationalised. In the initial franchise period the service was massively better than when it had been nationalised and the service has definitely dropped since it went back under Government control.

    FPT

    Bobajob

    the East Coast franchise did not perform better when Nationalised. In the initial franchise period the service was massively better than when it had been nationalised and the service has definitely dropped since it went back under Government control.

    WRONG. Dead wrong, Richard.

    http://www.thejournal.co.uk/news/north-east-news/good-year-east-coast-mainline-4404292

    "Turnover for the year amounted to £665.8m, an increase of £20m, leaving a profit before tax and service payments to the Department for Transport of £195.7m, an increase of £13m.

    "Passenger journeys at East Coast, which runs trains from London to the North East, Yorkshire and Scotland, increased by 2.1%, while customer satisfaction rose by 2%, and the latest punctuality figures were its best since records began in 1999."
    You're probably better looking at the more recent Passenger survey data since passenger satisfaction has dropped by 6% from Autumn 2012 for East Coast [1] and final operating profit is down by a couple of million also on 2012 [2]

    [1] http://www.passengerfocus.org.uk/research/national-passenger-survey-introduction#

    [2] http://www.directlyoperatedrailways.co.uk/PDF/DORReportAccounts2013.pdf
  • @Seant – “funny how an Islamist hate preacher is never prosecuted”

    Good article – when you put it like that, it does appear some have more ‘free speech’ than others.

    Now shared 1000 times. – you may make that 2K by tea time.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774
    After the good German confidence number earlier this morning, is an absolutely stellar UK one. Factory orders in the UK are at an 18 year high! From the FT: "A survey of nearly 400 companies undertaken by the Confederation of British Industry for December came in at its best level since February 1995, reading showing an order book balance of +12."
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Anyone know which Telegraph page is unofficially hosting the comments for SeanT's latest blog post?
  • glwglw Posts: 9,535

    @Seant – “funny how an Islamist hate preacher is never prosecuted”

    Good article – when you put it like that, it does appear some have more ‘free speech’ than others.

    Now shared 1000 times. – you may make that 2K by tea time.

    I suspect that it's not so much a case of having more free speech, but that he proves a useful honey pot for the powers that be.
  • BobajobBobajob Posts: 1,536

    Bobajob said:

    Bobajob said:

    FPT

    Bobajob

    the East Coast franchise did not perform better when Nationalised. In the initial franchise period the service was massively better than when it had been nationalised and the service has definitely dropped since it went back under Government control.

    FPT

    Bobajob

    the East Coast franchise did not perform better when Nationalised. In the initial franchise period the service was massively better than when it had been nationalised and the service has definitely dropped since it went back under Government control.

    WRONG. Dead wrong, Richard.

    http://www.thejournal.co.uk/news/north-east-news/good-year-east-coast-mainline-4404292

    "Turnover for the year amounted to £665.8m, an increase of £20m, leaving a profit before tax and service payments to the Department for Transport of £195.7m, an increase of £13m.

    "Passenger journeys at East Coast, which runs trains from London to the North East, Yorkshire and Scotland, increased by 2.1%, while customer satisfaction rose by 2%, and the latest punctuality figures were its best since records began in 1999."
    It's a pretty small sample size. Are they taking into account the loss of the franchise money into account?

    Looking at the big picture, passenger numbers have grown massively since privatisation after having been falling for years beforehand.
    And so they should have bloody well done, given the vast increase in the subsidy!

    Richard's contention was specifically about East Coast since it was renationalised. His contention was provably wrong.
    Hmmm, again you link subsidy and passenger growth. In the last thread, you said subsidy had doubled, and so had passenger numbers. If those two facts are true, then the privatised industry is just as efficient wrt subsidy as BR was.

    Which is rather a problem for your argument.

    You also have to be careful about the figures. Several different things have to be factored in: for instance, one-off infrastructure costs to expand the network such as the WCML upgrade or Crossrail, and the day-to-day running and maintenance costs.

    When you discuss EC's headline return to taxpayers, I'm surprised you do not acknowledge the role the Open Access operators have on that route, or the fact that South West Trains returned even more.

    If the railways were renationalised, would you move National Rail's debt back onto the government's books?
    Do you mean Network Rail's debt? Looks as if that may happen anyway. ONS have never been happy with the government's smoke and mirrors trick. Public debt is public debt, however you try to hide it. https://www.railnews.co.uk/news/2013/12/09-network-rail-debt-is-set.html

    My argument about the railways is simple – they are always going to be loss making, they are quite simply a cost of running an developed economy. This is not a banana republic and therefore the railway cannot be allowed to fail.

    Better to have a German or French system where they are properly state owned but have commercial arms, and concede retail operations to the private sector where contractors can compete on quality, in something more approaching a free market. As Pulpstar said recently, the current dog's breakfast is a joke – it takes the worst aspects of socialism and capitalism, and combines them.

    I say again, as you are more expert than me, why not suggest a model? You have already said you are very open to (some form) of renationalisation, so why not fly a kite for the benefit of the thread?

  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited December 2013
    JonathanD said:

    Bobajob said:

    FPT

    Bobajob

    the East Coast franchise did not perform better when Nationalised. In the initial franchise period the service was massively better than when it had been nationalised and the service has definitely dropped since it went back under Government control.

    FPT

    Bobajob

    the East Coast franchise did not perform better when Nationalised. In the initial franchise period the service was massively better than when it had been nationalised and the service has definitely dropped since it went back under Government control.

    WRONG. Dead wrong, Richard.

    http://www.thejournal.co.uk/news/north-east-news/good-year-east-coast-mainline-4404292

    "Turnover for the year amounted to £665.8m, an increase of £20m, leaving a profit before tax and service payments to the Department for Transport of £195.7m, an increase of £13m.

    "Passenger journeys at East Coast, which runs trains from London to the North East, Yorkshire and Scotland, increased by 2.1%, while customer satisfaction rose by 2%, and the latest punctuality figures were its best since records began in 1999."
    ...passenger satisfaction has dropped by 6% from Autumn 2012 for East Coast [1] and final operating profit is down by a couple of million also on 2012 [2]...

    Is anyone who is knowledgeable about such matters at all suprised by this trend?

    Bobajob will be soon be advocating that the state sets the timetables and chooses the buffet menus.



  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    O/T question for the PB massive.

    If you had a ~£500k mortgage balance and you were remortgaging now, house value about £1.1k, would you go for

    1/ a 2 year fix at 1.88%
    2/ a 5 year fix at 2.69%
    3/ a 10 year fix at 3.44%?

    Would you feel safe taking the 1.88 on the basis you'd still get a cheap deal in 2 years' time?

    Don't speculate with your home.

    3.44% is such a fabulous rate for long term money you should lock it in asap. It may not be the cheapest, but given the risk that interest rates could revert significantly higher over a 5 year view, I'd grab it with both hands.

    Just make sure you have portability and ability to repay a proportion of capital at will and without penalty.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842

    Bobajob said:

    Bobajob said:

    FPT

    Bobajob

    the East Coast franchise did not perform better when Nationalised. In the initial franchise period the service was massively better than when it had been nationalised and the service has definitely dropped since it went back under Government control.

    FPT

    Bobajob

    the East Coast franchise did not perform better when Nationalised. In the initial franchise period the service was massively better than when it had been nationalised and the service has definitely dropped since it went back under Government control.

    WRONG. Dead wrong, Richard.

    http://www.thejournal.co.uk/news/north-east-news/good-year-east-coast-mainline-4404292

    "Turnover for the year amounted to £665.8m, an increase of £20m, leaving a profit before tax and service payments to the Department for Transport of £195.7m, an increase of £13m.

    "Passenger journeys at East Coast, which runs trains from London to the North East, Yorkshire and Scotland, increased by 2.1%, while customer satisfaction rose by 2%, and the latest punctuality figures were its best since records began in 1999."
    It's a pretty small sample size. Are they taking into account the loss of the franchise money into account?

    Looking at the big picture, passenger numbers have grown massively since privatisation after having been falling for years beforehand.
    And so they should have bloody well done, given the vast increase in the subsidy!

    Richard's contention was specifically about East Coast since it was renationalised. His contention was provably wrong.
    Hmmm, again you link subsidy and passenger growth. In the last thread, you said subsidy had doubled, and so had passenger numbers. If those two facts are true, then the privatised industry is just as efficient wrt subsidy as BR was.

    Which is rather a problem for your argument.

    You also have to be careful about the figures. Several different things have to be factored in: for instance, one-off infrastructure costs to expand the network such as the WCML upgrade or Crossrail, and the day-to-day running and maintenance costs.

    When you discuss EC's headline return to taxpayers, I'm surprised you do not acknowledge the role the Open Access operators have on that route, or the fact that South West Trains returned even more.

    If the railways were renationalised, would you move National Rail's debt back onto the government's books?
    Where is the rail debt at the moment ?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    SeanT said:

    Pulpstar said:

    FPT: @SeanT Excellent blog post. Choudhary should have the book thrown at him wrt hate speech/incitement to religous/racial violence or the laws should be scrapped altogether. You can have one, or the other, but the disparity between his treatment and how a common racist on the clapham omnibus is treated is an utter disgrace.

    Ta. Personally I'd err on the side of liberty: I don't believe "hateful" remarks should require a jail term, not unless they directly incite violence against a particular person/group.

    Yet the Charlton fans got EIGHTEEN MONTHS for singing a racist song (however disgusting); and that Scotsman got twelve weeks for "impersonating a monkey" within 100 yards of a black footballer.

    Meanwhile Choudary freely walks the streets, spouting his terrorising bile.

    Either bang them all up, or none at all. It's this sense of a two tier, "protect the Muslim" justice system which is so dangerously corrosive.
    A similar situation is the way in which various former DJs have been arrested for allegedly pinching young women's bottoms in 1967 but people who mutilate young girls' genitals in 2013 are not arrested.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774
    edited December 2013
    AndyJS said:

    A similar situation is the way in which various former DJs have been arrested for allegedly pinching young women's bottoms in 1967 but people who mutilate young girls' genitals in 2013 are not arrested.

    I have commented on my belief that FGM is GBH, and that parents are accessories. However, I think many of the allegations are significantly more serious than simply 'pinching girls bottoms', and that comparing crimes - as a general rule - is something that we should steer well clear of.
  • Charles said:

    O/T question for the PB massive.

    If you had a ~£500k mortgage balance and you were remortgaging now, house value about £1.1k, would you go for

    1/ a 2 year fix at 1.88%
    2/ a 5 year fix at 2.69%
    3/ a 10 year fix at 3.44%?

    Would you feel safe taking the 1.88 on the basis you'd still get a cheap deal in 2 years' time?

    Don't speculate with your home.

    3.44% is such a fabulous rate for long term money you should lock it in asap. It may not be the cheapest, but given the risk that interest rates could revert significantly higher over a 5 year view, I'd grab it with both hands.

    Just make sure you have portability and ability to repay a proportion of capital at will and without penalty.
    Agree generally but offsetting an option depending on their cash position however and I can't see a 3.44% but can see a 3.84% so that might be a typo.

    Depends on 'life' position though too, as portability is a v limited place to be as it's at the whim of that lender at that point in time and their criteria then.
  • Grandiose said:

    Can someone confirm/deny this for me? I think before today's figures annualised growth in wages - at least on some measure - was 2.2%. Inflation's now at 2.1% (CPI). What's the preferred comparison of Ed Miliband (the 40 of 41 months one)?

    "The ONS, for instance, revealed that average weekly earnings excluding bonus payments rose by 0.8% comparing July to September 2013 with the same period a year earlier"

    I think wage inflation hit 2.2% in PB Hodges world.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    rcs1000 said:

    After the good German confidence number earlier this morning, is an absolutely stellar UK one. Factory orders in the UK are at an 18 year high! From the FT: "A survey of nearly 400 companies undertaken by the Confederation of British Industry for December came in at its best level since February 1995, reading showing an order book balance of +12."

    Early indicators of retail sales not so good though Robert. The British Retail Consortion have reported "footfall" down on the high street and in shopping centres in November.

    Factory orders up and Christmas shopping down will of course please our Warwickshire and Lincolnshire malcontents, but Q4 GDP growth is very closely linked to an upturn in the purchase of such fripperies as Food & Non-Alcoholic Beverages, Bread, Meat, Sweets, Alcoholic Drinks & Tobacco, Beer, Wine and Spirits.

    Some very pretty graphs and an explanation of the economic impact of Winterval can be found at http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/elmr/economic-review/december-2013/art-decemberer.html#tab-Christmas-in-the-average-household

    Well worth a quick read.
  • GaiusGaius Posts: 227

    YouGov ‏@YouGov 7s
    Supporters of government cuts now outnumber opponents for the first time in three years - http://y-g.co/18wpRqF

    the tide is turning...

    Despite the best efforts of Polly Toynbee (FPT - her latest Guardian article) to portray the Government (well, specifically the blue part of it) as supporters of eugenics, and probably eaters of babies as well.
    Toynbee has become nothing more than a national laughing stock simply because she is so over the top. Nobody with a brain pays any attention to her and she has no effect on general political decourse.

  • GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323

    Grandiose said:

    Can someone confirm/deny this for me? I think before today's figures annualised growth in wages - at least on some measure - was 2.2%. Inflation's now at 2.1% (CPI). What's the preferred comparison of Ed Miliband (the 40 of 41 months one)?

    "The ONS, for instance, revealed that average weekly earnings excluding bonus payments rose by 0.8% comparing July to September 2013 with the same period a year earlier"

    I think wage inflation hit 2.2% in PB Hodges world.
    I think it was an annualised rate based on a more recent period, perhaps 3 or even one month.
  • Gaius said:

    YouGov ‏@YouGov 7s
    Supporters of government cuts now outnumber opponents for the first time in three years - http://y-g.co/18wpRqF

    the tide is turning...

    Despite the best efforts of Polly Toynbee (FPT - her latest Guardian article) to portray the Government (well, specifically the blue part of it) as supporters of eugenics, and probably eaters of babies as well.
    Toynbee has become nothing more than a national laughing stock simply because she is so over the top. Nobody with a brain pays any attention to her and she has no effect on general political decourse.

    You mean a bit like SeanT but without a sense of humour
This discussion has been closed.