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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The end of the honeymoon
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The end of the honeymoon
Labour has not led in any GB poll since 28 July 2019, four days after Boris Johnson succeeded Theresa May as Prime Minister. They did so with a share of just 30%: one more than the Tories and one less than the combined Lib Dem and Brexit Party shares. It seems a lot more than eleven months ago.
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I suggested at the time of the Cummings scandal that Labour would take the lead within 3 months and I'll stick by that.
Interestingly, it still reverberates. I was chatting to someone in their 20's the other day, remarking that youngsters seem to have ditched precautions. She replied that it was Cummings who did it. "When we saw he didn't give a f*ck, we thought, 'why should we?'"
And they're not sympathetic jokes, either.
Latest Westminster VI
SNP 51% (+6)
SCon 21% (-3)
SLab 19% (nc)
SLD 6% (-4)
Grn 2% (+1)
(Panelbase, 1-5 June; +/- change from UK GE 2019)
Priti Patel lobbied for a relaxation of lottery rules that would have benefited a Conservative donor after they met privately.
(£) https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/priti-patel-called-for-new-lottery-rules-after-meeting-with-richard-desmond-gfv9shcsh
Boris Johnson still has some of the glory of his amazing election victory. The time that was too short for him was he stay in the hospital. Because the minute he was discharged, his polling numbers started to fall. Instead of racing back to No. 10, he should have lingered in his sickbed a wee while longer. Be seen to act as PM again - but not from the corridors of power but instead from the halls of healing. That way, he would have projected leadership AND retained the sympathy vote.
But Starmer has plenty of time to win them round. This Parliament will be a marathon, a la 1959-64, not a sprint as in 2010-15.
Methinks THAT is what voters want. They may not expect it, but when they see a politico with his hands in the cookie jar, generally they'd like to see his head on a pike.
F1: considering skipping qualifying and just having a little bet on the race, around McLaren/Racing Point (well, Perez). Some interesting markets but not all can be bet on, as yet.
Although, there are also some intriguing markets on winners without the big beasts for qualifying. The agony of choice.
It is clear most people are still very worried by covid and nearly half the country have been financially protected by employment in the public sector or furloughed
Boris has paid a big price for Cummings and his brand has taken a hit
Whether this matters is not clear and the focus over the next few months will be on the economy, help for those suffering, and if covid can be contained
Also Boris will be in place at the end of the year and responsible for the deal or no deal outcome of brexit
The next election is 4 years away and many variable factors will determine just how that election pans out but I am far less worried now Corbyn is history
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-53188847
One possibility is significant pre-existing immunity arising from an earlier similar virus, which would tie in with the Oxford theory
However, as I said, I can't read the whole article. Does it say she's been meeting with Desmond more recently. She wasn't a minister in Dec 2017.
Keir Stumer sorta comes across like a Joe Biden with youthful vigor - somewhat like Joe himself back when he was borking Bork. Granted without Biden's working-class cred, but also without a propensity for foot-in-mouth disease.
Ironically the minister you are referring to, Jimmy Thomas, was also a Labour politician (albeit a Macdonald one).
George Osborne and Gordon Brown should probably both be relieved that rule no longer applies.
Huh?
A quick glance at Keith Starmer’s early life clearly indicates that he is most certainly “working class” (which was still a thing in England in the 1960s).
He was obviously very bright, and worked his way towards a good career.
I've met her a couple of times, too.
She's certainly lost some support locally over appearing to back down on a local issue after becoming Home Sec.
Harold Nicolson! MUST get to bed!
Hopefully the US will become a less confrontational country and to be honest any future trade deal would no doubt be based on firmer grounds than anything with Trump
As for Starmer he is far more acceptable than Corbyn, but I very much doubt he will be up against Boris. I hope 2021 will see Boris step away as he will have concluded Brexit and I doubt he is in it for the longhaul anyway
Sweet dreams.
Loved our stay in Melbourne a few years ago
Wilson replied that he was an MP, at which Byers exclaimed; 'You can't be; I've got the list of Liberal MP's and you're not on it!'
Allegedly. And can't at the moment remember where I read that.
Betting PostF1: backed both Sainz and Norris, each way, to win qualifying without the top 6. On Ladbrokes with boost, that was 5.25 and 10.5 respectively, third odds top 2.
I split a stake so it was roughly equally profitable either way. I think Perez could be a fly in the ointment, but I think the McLaren odds may be too long. We'll see.
The PCP should be working hard for ways to remove the blundering fool.
In Scotland we say “Ah kent yer faither.”
In Australia they have tall poppy syndrome.
In Sweden we have jantelagen.
It wouldn’t surprise me if every nation and language on the planet had this concept.
Cummings thinks he meets this criteria, of course.
It would matter less if he was correct.
PBers love speculating about splits within their opponents, but it doesn’t take a genius to see that it is going to get very nasty internally for the Tories in the next few years. Being UKIP-lite was great for one election, but is utterly unsustainable in the medium to long term.
They should've axed May after she became the first leader in history to fall victim to her own ambush, instead they tolerate her weak leadership too long and may well repeated the mistake.
The media keeps saying he’s the de facto PM. But he’s not. He’s an influential adviser but not the PM.
For most people it doesn't really feel that Brexit is done. There has been no discernable change yet, so Johnson keeps that "Get Brexit Done" vote. That all changes in January. Where those votes go then will be interesting, but I expect them to fade.The economic hit and misery will be in full force by then too. Sub 30% Tory vote very possible by then.
Johnson has largely got away with the high fatality number. That might change if a second wave appears, but I am assuming it won't.
I keep being told that the economy will bounce back quickly, but I am afraid I am not smart enough to see where that comes from. My view is sustained
cross over might occur as the economy really starts to struggle towards the end of the year or into next year. If that comes to pass I can envisage a Labour lead growing exponentially as the recession bites. It will be at this point, Cummings and Jenrick and any similar subsequent events become significant issues.
A new leader, maybe Hunt just before the GE might turn things around for the Conservatives. Someone not tainted by Johnson. I don't see any way back for Johnson, unless he is blessed with some sort of Falklands factor, and even then I am not sure that will pull him out of the abyss.
The likelier explanation is the one discussed at length in the same story; the difference in social norms. Although there was no lockdown, people self-restricted - and social distancing and mask wearing have far higher compliance than over here.
Or in the US.
https://twitter.com/Bob_Wachter/status/1279252925240369152
https://twitter.com/Bob_Wachter/status/1279252930227400704
https://www.theguardian.com/football/2020/jul/02/story-of-how-wigan-collapsed-into-administration-au-yeung-investigation
He sets the agenda. That's Cummings, no BoZo.
He can hire and fire ministers. That's Cummings, no BoZo.
That's why people call him the de facto PM. He exercises the functions of the role.
Two weeks before she became home secretary, last July, Ms Patel wrote a piece for the Conservative Home website in which she described raising the jackpot to £1 million as a “win-win” situation for charities and lotteries. Later that month the government announced it was increasing the annual sales limit from £10 million to £50 million and the maximum jackpot from £400,000 to £500,000.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/priti-patel-called-for-new-lottery-rules-after-meeting-with-richard-desmond-gfv9shcsh
https://twitter.com/mlipsitch/status/1279226903803629569
Rishi Sunak looks in poll position but of course he has a big part in this story over the coming months which will define his future
I cannot recall a more fractious political climate and where it goes who knows
I would just say that I genuinely believe that if Starmer had been in charge we would be in a very similar position to as we are now
No one knows what happens behind closed doors
What we saw in the rose garden was damning all by itself. Cummings should have gone, but he didn’t because he’s the boss.
Campbell was about communication, spin, the message, and party discipline. He had no real input on policy, other than to give advice about whether things would land well with the public. Blair, Brown and others in a strong cabinet determined policy.
By contrast, it looks as if Cummings is the creative force behind much of the policy thinking behind this government, and most of the Cabinet are just ciphers for his creativity. He is not just a SPAD; he is the brains behind much of the government's agenda.
So a hugely different role from Campbell, and a much more risky one for an unelected adviser.
We know he is setting the agenda. BoZo can't be arsed.
There are no contrary stories. No denials. No ministers offering alternative narratives on the airwaves.
The public enquiry will be fascinating and Cummings role in covid 19
If you do not see that train coming down the track you must have your eyes closed.
The key is how the government handles the impact. I do not see how the best government in the world successfully mitigates the effect of the post-Covid shock. And this government is certainly not world beating.
Rishi Sunak is to address this later this week
Also this morning media coverage does seem quite good for HMG and shows all the new precautions businesses have to take.
Re-opening is a must and let us hope we all act responsibly in our interactions with each other
Campbell was Blair's servant. Cummings is Johnson's master.
You also said that Cummings and Boris can “they can stay there as long as they want“. Think about that for a moment. Really weird.
The relegation battle came to the forefront on Thursday evening, when EFL chairman Rick Parry was covertly recorded telling a football fan about “all sorts of rumours” surrounding Wigan’s situation. Parry said: “There are rumours that there is a bet in the Philippines on them being relegated because the previous owner (Dr Stanley Choi) has got gambling interests in the Philippines.”
At a press conference on Thursday, administrator Krasner was asked by a Daily Telegraph journalist if he was aware of the origins of the change of ownership and presumably referencing rumours also passed to The Athletic, asked whether the club had been lost via gambling.
Krasner replied: “I have no paperwork, nobody has mentioned gambling before this conversation. Any evidence would be obliged.”
Gunnercooke, the legal representatives of IEC in the UK, declined to comment on either point and indeed all questions posed by The Athletic.
https://theathletic.co.uk/1907722/2020/07/04/wigan-athletic-royle-efl-paul-cook-hong-kong-yeung/
I simply do not know enough about Cummings and his beliefs but I absolutely do believe he should have resigned over his trip to Durham
May 2021 could be a bloodbath for the hapless Jack and Carlaw. More importantly for the long term I can see the SCons taking a total pounding at the May Scottish local elections, where they have strong representation. That’ll totally cripple their key activists and local media operations.
So I think Starmers upbringing is entirely irrelevant to his appeal and cred. He'll do better with the working class because of time, that he's normal and competent.