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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » It appears Brexit and the handling of Covid-19 by the Scottish
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » It appears Brexit and the handling of Covid-19 by the Scottish & Westminster governments is pushing Scotland inexorably towards independence
Many people who used to oppose Scottish independence have switched to the “yes” camp, turning a 55%-45% vote against leaving the UK in the 2014 referendum into a 54%-46% lead for the nationalists today https://t.co/Cqd5C9bkNX pic.twitter.com/o9RmMZ7vny
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But these are dark days for everyone. We are heading into an unprecedented economic shitshow. Any polling, on any cause, should be treated with great skepticism.
Headline - 18
7 days - 12
Yesterday - 2
Last 3-5 days subject to revision. Last 5 days included for completeness.
Once again, the mistake is made conflating government roles
There is a clear role for social housing (I do have an issue with lifetime tenancies and would prefer 10 year leases subject to renewal).
However that doesn’t mean the government should build housing
It would do better to commission private developers to build social housing - government should fund not execute
How can anyone argue that the decision in 2016 by the UK to leave the EU, while Scotland voted to Remain, doesn't constitute significant change to the basis on which they voted to stay part of the UK in 2014 is beyond me. Especially as a lot of the people making that argument did want another EU referendum just because the Remainers in parliament wouldn't respect the will o' the people
They've got a credible leader, but they've not got a credible Shadow Chancellor and not got a credible economic policy.
She is terrible
https://twitter.com/SocialM85897394/status/1279716017204232193?s=20
A strong case can be made, but not by appealing to old tropes and tired fear-mongering.
We clearly need a vision for a new Union.
One with national projects that strengthen the potential of the people and shares prosperity more widely.
The devolution settlement is highly unstable. It is effectively a machine for creating further separatism. The sooner this is understood, the better.
Still, at least he hasn't crashed.
I have missed you F1.
There need to be clear and simple principles on how often the question can be asked. Time is the easiest and most transparent. I like 20 years because it gives a frequent review without overshadowing the normal business of government
Mind you, she ticks the Centrist boxes
"Born in Aberdeen and privately educated at Robert Gordon College, Dodds studied Philosophy, Politics and Economics at St Hilda's College, Oxford, Social Policy at the University of Edinburgh and Government at the London School of Economics. She lectured in Public Policy at King’s College London and Aston University."
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anneliese_Dodds
Rather than saying “you need X percentage of social housing” I’d get the government to buy X% of a development (possibly pre-funding it subject to appropriate safeguards) for use as social housing.
We are like a spaceship heading into a singularity, we have no idea what is on the other side, and how it will shape politics
Dodds - university lecturer
Thomas - university lecturer
Nandy - charity policy wonk
Starmer himself - lawyer/civil servant
Lammy - barrister and lecturer.
As against that, Rayner definitely does not in any way, shape or form fit that mould.
https://twitter.com/BingoLittle75/status/1279764346856448000?s=20
could cruelly expose them.
They also make the Tories look intellectually powerful and admirably diverse, which is quite an achievement.
Fair point!
"University lecturer" - God help us.
Johnson - journalist / tv host
Gove - journalist / tv host
Cummings - something dodgy in Russia
Shapps - confidence trickster
Williamson - fireplace salesman
Patel - lung cancer advocate.
Even Sunak gives off the vague air of a man who has married not just money but access to power.
It seems to me that is what the Labour Party is full of now, and has been for quite some time, which is probably one of the reasons I don't vote for them anymore.
If proper job means s****** the staff, you have a point.
I'm glad I didn't take their advice.
Are you Scottish? If so, apologies that I don't remember your on the spot contributions in the febrile days before the 2014 referendum.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A_Stab_in_the_Dark_(TV_series)
I’m happy to - you know - give these people a chance and see how they perform, rather than damn them because they happen to have spent their time in academia.
Dodds strikes me by the way as thoroughly normal - maybe *too* much so - and probably needs some media training. I also like the fact she is Scottish.
Starmer and Nandy are doing v well.
Thomas is apparently well regarded, but haven’t heard “hide nor hair” of him.
And AIUI, Starmer passed the 11+ to the local Grammar school, which later underwent some sort of metamorphosis.
Edited for FFS.
https://twitter.com/LeVostreGC/status/1279650473499230208
Boris has many flaws but he is good at spotting talent, and he knows how to delegate: ideal skills in an editor.
Trouble is he's not good on detail, and forethought, which means he is not good at pandemics.
Likewise, councils didn't need to have a DLO to build council houses.
I think she’s a grievance monger, a control freak, and rather petty in the way she has tried to communicate a “better, Scottish” covid policy.
Scots deserve fun too.
I’m not sure they get it from Sturgeon.
I actually thought the quality declined rather rapidly under his editorship, but I appreciate it is a minority view.
He kept Taki on. Nobody seems to remark on that.
As for spotting talent. May I present Gavin Williamson. I rest my case!
This is an interesting subplot.
If Scotland does get a vote in the next 5 years and if they vote YES, then I predict the split will be extremely messy and acrimonious. Look at the crapstorm that has surrounded Brexit - Sindy can only be worse, if it happens: breaking a solid 300 year old union, not just a 50 year old quasi-Federal common market.
There will be tremendous rows over debt, defici, banking, currency, migration, there will be an enormous economic shock - probably severe recessions on both sides of the border - and there will also be a million or more Scots - unionists - who will be bitterly angry, feeling that their nationality has been taken away. Like Remoaners on crack.
A lot of people in England will also be wildly upset.
In that febrile and unhappy atmosphere, it will be a bad time to be a Scottish Labour politician in England.
Actually, Trump; he'll be fine.
Britain has the opportunity to think of itself as a Asia Pacific power, or at least part of an Asia Pacific dialogue.
Political union though? I’m not sure how that works or makes sense.
I'm very worried that she's completely screwing up the opening of the economy on purpose so that when the government refuse to bail her out with additional employment and business support measures she can claim that it's an English plot and the value of the Union is zero. She seems to be content with smashing the Scottish economy and that's very worrying.
Every time Sunak or Boris speak it's very clear they see the economy as the major priority in this, whenever I see Nicola on TV she seems not to give a fuck about the economy and seems more interested in showing her "different" strategy to England despite the conditions being basically the same and no evidence that the government opening up the economy has really been all that bad anyway. Now this new threat of keeping English tourists out and the ridiculous people at the border is just another example of how Nicola is happy to screw the Scottish economy just to be different to England.
In six months' time we will have a better idea of the economic carnage. I am already hearing wails of pain from people getting sacked
A very different context.
https://wingsoverscotland.com/shiny-beads-and-trinkets/
However 54% of English Labour voters think indyref2 should be granted, so it looks like the SNP will have to wait until a Starmer Premiership for the chance of a second referendum being allowed by Westminster.
The comparison with the 2016 EU referendum is not really valid as that was 41 years after the first EEC referendum of 1975, indyref1 was only 6 years ago and No won what was in Salmond's words 'a once in a generation referendum.'
Indeed in Quebec it took 15 years for them to have their second referendum on independence from Canada in 1995 after their first in 1980
'Not sure it's a good thing.'
If that's dogmatic...
Although arguably, it would be the defining pre-career for a modern politician.
Also, she has the advantage that everything that goes wrong can be blamed on England, while she takes the credit for anything good.
eg the Treasury response has been generous and creditable, but the UK govt gets fuck all credit north of the border
When the fog of the virus has begun to clear, the scenery will be changed. Scotland is going to be plunged into a terrible recession, Sturgeon might find that much harder to manage.
https://twitter.com/jhalcrojohnston/status/1279707568898703360?s=20