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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Survation defends it methodology against Lord Ashcroft, Joh
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Survation defends it methodology against Lord Ashcroft, John Rentoul and YouGov’s Anthony Wells
Following publication of our latest four constituency polls for Alan Bown earlier this week, there has been considerable public discussion of the methodology we used for these polls, including specific criticisms from Anthony Wells of YouGov, Lord Ashcroft and an article by John Rentoul which lists a number of criticisms passed to him by “a Conservative source”.
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I have pointed out many times that UKIP have over performed at almost every election post 2011, yet most people on here complacently assume they will go away, with no reason other than "its what always happens"...
#heartnothead
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-25438682
Interesting point on this topic re turnover of electors.
Now where did I put my spectacles?
Second time Conservative sources are criticised for trying to rubbish polls showing they are doing particularly badly in the marginals.
Not that they are doing fantastically in the national polls compared to where they need to be.
Hail
By their own numbers in one third of the by-elections, the last one at Eastleigh, Survation were off the pace.
We're entitled to be cautious of Survation until they provide an extensive range of accurate polling.
The problem is not so much that the Conservatives are doing badly in polls carried out in marginals.
It is that marginal polls have historically underperformed national polls when predicting election results.
Why? I don't know, but it would be useful for pollsters to address this issue first.
Would have thought that helps UKIP, would anyone argue this exposure was bad for them?
ARSE, Ashcroft or Survation - No contest.
That is like asking JackW to bare his ARSE.
We've only got Rentool's word for it.
Now kneel, kiss my ring and we'll say no more of the matter .....
{edited for sausage fingers]
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/cycling/25438165
How ironic its the two Tory stooge pollsters (Yougov and Ashcroft/Populus who both heavily downgrade the UKIP vote) that are getting pissy. They would look far less ridiculous if they took Patrick Brione's advice.
I don't disagree with the validity questions themselves and I salute Survation for offering our site such a well argued rebuttal.
Any view on why London's schools have improved? What do you think of George Osborne, and does it matter that David Cameron went to Eton / seems to be losing his hair?
Watkins was jailed by Mr Justice Royce for 29 years. He will serve at least two thirds of that before the parole board can decide if he should be released. If he is released early, he will serve the rest of the jail term on licence. But the judge stipulated he will serve an extra six years on licence on top of that, bringing the total sentence to 35 years
Bognor: -14
Folkestone: -14
Looks like the Conservatives are doing worse than they are on average everywhere....
A shame there's not been more on-topic analysis in the Comments here though. Vaguely surprised at that, considering the audience.
Can anyone think of someone who would fit that bill?
Hmmm "Hi Sam" and "Camerons hair neither here nor there"....
Thanks to Mr. Briône. It's always good to hear from pollsters themselves.
Mr. T, you don't happen to speak Cornish, do you? I had a vague notion that Kimbra meant Wales or Welsh in Cornish, but the (admittedly limited) Wiktionary entry for Cornish doesn't seem to have the word.
TheScreamingEagles 7:00PM
For Scrapheap, Just backed Adebayor to be first scorer tonight at 11/2
Drawing on Eurozone experience, it said a shared currency without shared fiscal and banking union could risk "high volatility and market turbulence".
Its report also said the credit profile of the residual UK (England, Wales and Northern Ireland) would be neutral.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-25438682
Now it may be that they are wrong and the Tories` own polling showing them leading by two points in the marginals is correct .But we have to see the poll to verify and criticise the methodology.
It`s quite funny of the Tories to criticise Survation`s methodology without first releasing their own poll.
Icke could have a point... He was one of the first to call Savile
Nick Cleggs old head teacher who was today convicted of child sex offences... Was that th same bloke that ch 4 did a program a few years ago?
OK, they didn't poll Lab seats but it isn't credible that Con are doing much worse than nationally in both safe Con seats and marginal seats.
If above was true they would be having to massively outperform in Lab seats and that isn't credible.
Of course the devil is in the detail: it is that which will distinguish pervasive culture and criminal acts.
http://www.thefreelibrary.com/Teacher+in+porn+shame;+COURT+TOLD+OF+'BROKEN+MAN'+WHO+WAS+HOUNDED...-a060237811
The bit about him being well liked is quite genuine and true by the way.
One more seat left to publish in the Bown series of polls.May I suggest it could be Boston showing a UKIP win.
On a lighter note, it sounds ghastly outside (cold, wind, lashing rain).
Perhaps he means it is merely "in depth" classical Greek study?
Of course the highlight from these polls is the high Ukip scores, and everyone is saying this is hurting the Tories most. But looking at the numbers it is more likely to my eyes that (depending on how the election goes) they will take more votes away from Labour. Or in other words Labour will not put on enough votes to win seats.
Let's look at Great Yarmouth, South Thanet and Crewe & Nantwich.
In all the seats the percentage of Ukip supporters saying they would want to keep out Miliband even if this means voting Conservative is higher than the number of people who say they have switched from the blues to the purples.
And in the first two seats it is clear that Labour are underperforming. Nationally the party is up 9 points on 2010 and yet in Great Yarmouth they are only up 3.6% and in South Thanet they are only up 3.7%. This is enough to put them in the lead in the Survation polls, but only because the Tory vote has declined so much, which it might not do so on polling day.
Crewe & Nantwich is different because there doesn't appear to be a big Ukip presence. The Tory vote has decreased less but Labour have picked up more votes, putting on 11.5%.
YouGov/Sun poll tonight: Labour lead back down to four points: CON 34%, LAB 38%, LD 10%, UKIP 11%
Undoubtedly we were taught by teachers who were known by parents, pupils and headmaster alike to have a sexual interest in pre-pubescent boys.
Boys between 7 and 13 attended the school so the passage of puberty was much discussed and masturbation was occasionally in the company of other boys but never with teachers present.
Far more physical contact between master and boy was permissable and acceptable as part of the culture than is allowed today.
The Caldicott article refers to the convicted Headmaster's time as a Sports Master and his interest in 12-13 year old boys of athletic abilities.
This is not in the least bit surprising and such masters would often talk openly in praise of "beautiful specimens". If the boys were bright they would be said to be an "ideal combination of Athenian and Spartan ideals".
Most boys were aware of such unnatural interest and many courted it and boasted about the attention they received.
Apart from incidents such as hugging a fully clothed boy or Masters talking lewdly about erections and sexual attraction, I witnessed nothing that went beyond such limits.
Yes I am......Is this the five minute argument or the full half hour?
"Rugger"...."Bu**er""?,
It's an easy mistake?
"Which, of course, is seriously criminal and very wrong. Right? "
Depends how well connected you are? (and I mean socially, not to the boys......though? on the other hand?...)
Your description of the culture as "pederastic" and "pseudoHellenic" is spot on but there was always a heavy dose of irony and parody in its deployment. The dangers of such a culture is that it stretches the limits towards temptation and it relies wholly on individual self-restraint to remain safe.
Most pupils attending prep and public schools will know of masters who suddenly disappeared in mid-term causing great speculation as to cause. The incidences were very rare but played a great role in the myths of boarding.
Beware a Greek master bearing vaseline?
Creating a general culture like that is also a good way for any paedophiles to mask their abuse. It would be much easier to convince a teenager that being abused was normal if they saw similar behaviour going on around them.
@TSE last national Survation (25/10) had c29 l35 ld12 UKIP17.
Conservatives must be doing really well in Labour's heartlands to balance this out if we are to believe it.
I see that Anthony wells made the same point on UKPR back when the polls came out; it simply isn't answered above.
I agree
Waiting for several posters to attack Sean for wanting more than a custodial sentence for certain crimes, possible smearing of his views etc etc
Or not, if they're cowardly hypocrites...