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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » After another lacklustre Johnson PMQs performance a reminder h

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited July 22 in General
imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » After another lacklustre Johnson PMQs performance a reminder how well Sunak has been polling

One of the most remarkable stories since Johnson became CON leader and PM a year ago has been the rise and rise of Rishi Sunak who just a year ago was parliamentary secretary for local government. Now he’s favourite to succeed Johnson as CON leader and second favourite behind Starmer of becoming the next PM.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 37,085
    Sunak will make a great next PM when Boris retires in 2028.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 6,205

    Sunak will make a great next PM when Boris retires in 2028.

    I don't think the party will let him continue as long as that
  • EPGEPG Posts: 3,538
    Same organ, different grinder.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 451
    OT I just noticed this on the Q2 results transcript call for Snap, which was held yesterday

    "Additionally, following the murders of George Floyd, Ahmaud Arbery, and Breonna Taylor, "

    Err, isn't that prejudicing the trial / slander?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 37,085

    Sunak will make a great next PM when Boris retires in 2028.

    I don't think the party will let him continue as long as that
    He won an 80 seat majority, still leads in the polls and on favourability ratings is polling the same now as he was before the election last year.

    The party will defenestrate failing leaders but it took years to get rid of even Theresa May. Johnson is no May. Two terms is a good length of time for a PM, 2028 gives Sunak a year to be in charge before the 2029 General Election.
  • isamisam Posts: 33,119
    edited July 22
    “It is good to develop the habit of not treating your moods, preferences and impulses as cosmic imperatives which cannot be challenged or gainsaid. For me to keep my feelings to myself is a decision not to treat the world merely as a stage for my own personal drama. It is a blow against the mentality where everyone else is a supporting character in the Story Of Me. And in the age of social media, that doesn’t sound so bad.”

  • ChelyabinskChelyabinsk Posts: 247
    It's starting to feel like Mike is looking to cash in on Sunak being the next minister out of the cabinet, and is evermore increasingly annoyed that nobody in No.10 seems to read the site.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 2,187

    Sunak will make a great next PM when Boris retires in 2028.

    I don't think the party will let him continue as long as that
    He won an 80 seat majority, still leads in the polls and on favourability ratings is polling the same now as he was before the election last year.

    The party will defenestrate failing leaders but it took years to get rid of even Theresa May. Johnson is no May. Two terms is a good length of time for a PM, 2028 gives Sunak a year to be in charge before the 2029 General Election.
    I hope we wont end up with an administration that is marooned because Sunak is destabilising Boris like Brown was with Blair.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 1,919
    The trouble with Sunak is that there's a lot of good news behind him, and a lot a bad news in front of him.

    Patel not gifted enough and Gove tainted. But there's one clever fellow winning plaudits for his stance on China and Russia.

    Could 2024 be a legal borathon between two lawyers, Sir Keir Starmer and.....Dominic Raab?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 37,085
    MrEd said:

    OT I just noticed this on the Q2 results transcript call for Snap, which was held yesterday

    "Additionally, following the murders of George Floyd, Ahmaud Arbery, and Breonna Taylor, "

    Err, isn't that prejudicing the trial / slander?

    As far as I am aware no. They were murdered.

    The people who killed them may not be convicted for murder but that's never stopped murder victims from being referred to as having been murdered before or during the trial before.

    When you're talking about the accused it is "accused murderer" but when you're talking about the victim there is no 'innocent until proven guilty' requirement for the murder victim.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 21,106
    The death of a meme was announced today,

    Peacefully at home (location unclear) after a long illness, 'RBS will leave an indy Scotland' passed away in its sleep surrounded by regretful Unionists.

    Nae floors.

    Requiescat in pace


    'RBS will leave Scotland if voters back independence'

    https://tinyurl.com/y3cx9gzm

    'SCOTLAND BOMBSHELL: Royal Bank to move to LONDON if Sturgeon wins independence'

    https://tinyurl.com/y6atrk6n

    'RBS threatens to quit Scotland if SNP wins independence as it rebrands to NatWest'

    https://tinyurl.com/y3ot4k8o

    'RBS ditches toxic name after nearly 300 years: Bank to be called Natwest from today'

    https://tinyurl.com/y6sjertl
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 7,824

    Sunak will make a great next PM when Boris retires in 2028.

    I don't think the party will let him continue as long as that
    He won an 80 seat majority, still leads in the polls and on favourability ratings is polling the same now as he was before the election last year.

    The party will defenestrate failing leaders but it took years to get rid of even Theresa May. Johnson is no May. Two terms is a good length of time for a PM, 2028 gives Sunak a year to be in charge before the 2029 General Election.
    I don't see him going until he loses a GE and given an 80 seat start he'd have to perform pretty badly to do so at the next one up.

    Give the lad credit though; he's trying.
  • isamisam Posts: 33,119
    edited July 22
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 74,050
    edited July 22
    The key though is not Sunak v Johnson as best PM but Sunak v Starmer as there is only a point changing Tory leader if it increases the Tory voteshare.

    On that basis Sunak leads Starmer as preferred PM 44% to 34% which is less than the 48% to 33% Johnson leads Starmer by.

    That is because Johnson does better with Tory and Labour voters relative to Sunak v Starmer, Sunak only doing better than Johnson with LD voters like OGH

    https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voting-intention-15-july/
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 6,205

    Sunak will make a great next PM when Boris retires in 2028.

    I don't think the party will let him continue as long as that
    He won an 80 seat majority, still leads in the polls and on favourability ratings is polling the same now as he was before the election last year.

    The party will defenestrate failing leaders but it took years to get rid of even Theresa May. Johnson is no May. Two terms is a good length of time for a PM, 2028 gives Sunak a year to be in charge before the 2029 General Election.
    That victory was against Corbyn who at GE2019 had the worst approval rating by an opposition leader ever.

    Now Johnson is trailing Stamer on that measure by 20+%.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 37,085

    The death of a meme was announced today,

    Peacefully at home (location unclear) after a long illness, 'RBS will leave an indy Scotland' passed away in its sleep surrounded by regretful Unionists.

    Nae floors.

    Requiescat in pace


    'RBS will leave Scotland if voters back independence'

    https://tinyurl.com/y3cx9gzm

    'SCOTLAND BOMBSHELL: Royal Bank to move to LONDON if Sturgeon wins independence'

    https://tinyurl.com/y6atrk6n

    'RBS threatens to quit Scotland if SNP wins independence as it rebrands to NatWest'

    https://tinyurl.com/y3ot4k8o

    'RBS ditches toxic name after nearly 300 years: Bank to be called Natwest from today'

    https://tinyurl.com/y6sjertl

    The last doesn't seem to deal with the issues from the former: Is Natwest going to be based in London or Scotland?
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 9,952
    edited July 22
    Away from the Sunak campaign, the PB Fantasy League is coming to a nail-biting conclusion... 4 in with a chance of top spot.

    Belated congrats to Liverpool and their fans. Thoroughly deserved title obv.

    Starmer is positioned really well to compare/contrast vs Corbyn as we're seeing now on national security. His being in the shad cabinet under Corbyn is presumably a bit of a weakness but likely not to matter.

    Spurs may be winning but the 'style' is not welcome. Jose needs WHL to be left empty for it to work.

    Boris is what he's always been.....
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 37,085

    Sunak will make a great next PM when Boris retires in 2028.

    I don't think the party will let him continue as long as that
    He won an 80 seat majority, still leads in the polls and on favourability ratings is polling the same now as he was before the election last year.

    The party will defenestrate failing leaders but it took years to get rid of even Theresa May. Johnson is no May. Two terms is a good length of time for a PM, 2028 gives Sunak a year to be in charge before the 2029 General Election.
    That victory was against Corbyn who at GE2019 had the worst approval rating by an opposition leader ever.

    Now Johnson is trailing Stamer on that measure by 20+%.
    Mainly because Starmer doesn't have many net negatives as it stands, which isn't exceptionally unusual for a new leader.

    Johnson himself is still as strong independently now as he was then.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 14,546
    @Scrapheap_as_was - I'd forgotten about fantasy football, I captained Sterling! :smiley:
  • Starmer did well-ish today.

    Johnson's attacks are Starmer flip flopping (when?) and Corbyn being bad. Not sure either is very effective.

    Starmer has Johnson as a chancer and somebody that only looks out for himself. That can be very effective given time
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 21,106
    'You on the register of spies, mate? Yeah? Carry on then.'



  • This is the powerful stuff, breaking down the idea Johnson is any different to the previous lot
  • Corbyn's statement is a bit of an own goal to be honest. It just puts more space between him and Starmer which can only be a good thing for Keir
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 82,942
    edited July 22

    The death of a meme was announced today,

    Peacefully at home (location unclear) after a long illness, 'RBS will leave an indy Scotland' passed away in its sleep surrounded by regretful Unionists.

    Nae floors.

    Requiescat in pace


    'RBS will leave Scotland if voters back independence'

    https://tinyurl.com/y3cx9gzm

    'SCOTLAND BOMBSHELL: Royal Bank to move to LONDON if Sturgeon wins independence'

    https://tinyurl.com/y6atrk6n

    'RBS threatens to quit Scotland if SNP wins independence as it rebrands to NatWest'

    https://tinyurl.com/y3ot4k8o

    'RBS ditches toxic name after nearly 300 years: Bank to be called Natwest from today'

    https://tinyurl.com/y6sjertl

    The last doesn't seem to deal with the issues from the former: Is Natwest going to be based in London or Scotland?
    Still based in Edinburgh, no jobs are being transferred or lost, the HQ is in Edinburgh.

    It's simple logic, people get enraged about RBS, work in a RBS branch or call centre when people ring up in financial distress, say you lot get bailed out, I want a bailout.

    Natwest is more benign, plus Natwest represents circa 80% of the group's trade.

    Edit - RBS is still being retained for the existing branch network/cards/business.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 37,085

    The death of a meme was announced today,

    Peacefully at home (location unclear) after a long illness, 'RBS will leave an indy Scotland' passed away in its sleep surrounded by regretful Unionists.

    Nae floors.

    Requiescat in pace


    'RBS will leave Scotland if voters back independence'

    https://tinyurl.com/y3cx9gzm

    'SCOTLAND BOMBSHELL: Royal Bank to move to LONDON if Sturgeon wins independence'

    https://tinyurl.com/y6atrk6n

    'RBS threatens to quit Scotland if SNP wins independence as it rebrands to NatWest'

    https://tinyurl.com/y3ot4k8o

    'RBS ditches toxic name after nearly 300 years: Bank to be called Natwest from today'

    https://tinyurl.com/y6sjertl

    The last doesn't seem to deal with the issues from the former: Is Natwest going to be based in London or Scotland?
    Still based in Edinburgh, no jobs are being transferred or lost, the HQ is in Edinburgh.

    It's simple logic, people get enraged about RBS, work in a RBS call centre when people ring up in financial distress, say you lot get bailed out, I want a bailout.

    Natwest is more benign, plus Natwest represents circa 80% of the group's trade.
    So next referendum the line would be "Natwest threatens to relocate to London . . . "
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 1,919

    The death of a meme was announced today,

    Peacefully at home (location unclear) after a long illness, 'RBS will leave an indy Scotland' passed away in its sleep surrounded by regretful Unionists.

    Nae floors.

    Requiescat in pace


    'RBS will leave Scotland if voters back independence'

    https://tinyurl.com/y3cx9gzm

    'SCOTLAND BOMBSHELL: Royal Bank to move to LONDON if Sturgeon wins independence'

    https://tinyurl.com/y6atrk6n

    'RBS threatens to quit Scotland if SNP wins independence as it rebrands to NatWest'

    https://tinyurl.com/y3ot4k8o

    'RBS ditches toxic name after nearly 300 years: Bank to be called Natwest from today'

    https://tinyurl.com/y6sjertl

    The last doesn't seem to deal with the issues from the former: Is Natwest going to be based in London or Scotland?
    Still based in Edinburgh, no jobs are being transferred or lost, the HQ is in Edinburgh.

    It's simple logic, people get enraged about RBS, work in a RBS call centre when people ring up in financial distress, say you lot get bailed out, I want a bailout.

    Natwest is more benign, plus Natwest represents circa 80% of the group's trade.
    The investment bank recently ditched the RBS name for Natwest Markets.
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 2,981

    Sunak will make a great next PM when Boris retires in 2028.

    I don't think the party will let him continue as long as that
    He won an 80 seat majority, still leads in the polls and on favourability ratings is polling the same now as he was before the election last year.

    The party will defenestrate failing leaders but it took years to get rid of even Theresa May. Johnson is no May. Two terms is a good length of time for a PM, 2028 gives Sunak a year to be in charge before the 2029 General Election.
    Johnson will be a liability in 2024, never mind 2029. And the big weakness in your argument about Sunak as his replacement is your assumption that the Chancellor of the E's current popularity will survive the economic tsunami to come. Changing an unpopular leader only works when it's seen as a change of direction. If Johnson's eventual unpopularity comes about on the back of economic failures, putting the Chancellor in charge won't work.

    The parallel is I think with Anthony Barber, someone initially seen as integral to the Heath government's initial popularity as expansionary policies were followed, only to be seen as the architect of the retrenchment that eventually followed. Barber wouldn't have saved the Conservatives in 1974.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 37,085
    Great clip there Horse. Boris is spot on there and hits the nail on the head.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 82,942

    The death of a meme was announced today,

    Peacefully at home (location unclear) after a long illness, 'RBS will leave an indy Scotland' passed away in its sleep surrounded by regretful Unionists.

    Nae floors.

    Requiescat in pace


    'RBS will leave Scotland if voters back independence'

    https://tinyurl.com/y3cx9gzm

    'SCOTLAND BOMBSHELL: Royal Bank to move to LONDON if Sturgeon wins independence'

    https://tinyurl.com/y6atrk6n

    'RBS threatens to quit Scotland if SNP wins independence as it rebrands to NatWest'

    https://tinyurl.com/y3ot4k8o

    'RBS ditches toxic name after nearly 300 years: Bank to be called Natwest from today'

    https://tinyurl.com/y6sjertl

    The last doesn't seem to deal with the issues from the former: Is Natwest going to be based in London or Scotland?
    Still based in Edinburgh, no jobs are being transferred or lost, the HQ is in Edinburgh.

    It's simple logic, people get enraged about RBS, work in a RBS call centre when people ring up in financial distress, say you lot get bailed out, I want a bailout.

    Natwest is more benign, plus Natwest represents circa 80% of the group's trade.
    The investment bank recently ditched the RBS name for Natwest Markets.
    That's just a return to form, used to be County Natwest and Greenwich Natwest.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 37,085

    Sunak will make a great next PM when Boris retires in 2028.

    I don't think the party will let him continue as long as that
    He won an 80 seat majority, still leads in the polls and on favourability ratings is polling the same now as he was before the election last year.

    The party will defenestrate failing leaders but it took years to get rid of even Theresa May. Johnson is no May. Two terms is a good length of time for a PM, 2028 gives Sunak a year to be in charge before the 2029 General Election.
    Johnson will be a liability in 2024, never mind 2029. And the big weakness in your argument about Sunak as his replacement is your assumption that the Chancellor of the E's current popularity will survive the economic tsunami to come. Changing an unpopular leader only works when it's seen as a change of direction. If Johnson's eventual unpopularity comes about on the back of economic failures, putting the Chancellor in charge won't work.

    The parallel is I think with Anthony Barber, someone initially seen as integral to the Heath government's initial popularity as expansionary policies were followed, only to be seen as the architect of the retrenchment that eventually followed. Barber wouldn't have saved the Conservatives in 1974.
    You're assuming there's going to be an economic tsunami. You're assuming economic failure.

    If the government guides the country through COVID, through the end of transition and there is post vaccine from 2021 onwards a boom in the UK economy . . . then Boris will deserve a second majority victory and Sunak will be well placed to replace him when the Tories look for a sixth election victory in a row in 2029.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 82,942
    The whole RBS/NatWest thing goes back to the original takeover by RBS of NatWest.

    NatWest was much bigger than RBS but some it got gobbled up, and they went to make it the RBS Group.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 82,942

    Away from the Sunak campaign, the PB Fantasy League is coming to a nail-biting conclusion... 4 in with a chance of top spot.

    Belated congrats to Liverpool and their fans. Thoroughly deserved title obv.

    Starmer is positioned really well to compare/contrast vs Corbyn as we're seeing now on national security. His being in the shad cabinet under Corbyn is presumably a bit of a weakness but likely not to matter.

    Spurs may be winning but the 'style' is not welcome. Jose needs WHL to be left empty for it to work.

    Boris is what he's always been.....

    Just do a Liverpool/Coutinho, sell Kane and fund some world class acquisitions.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 1,919

    The whole RBS/NatWest thing goes back to the original takeover by RBS of NatWest.

    NatWest was much bigger than RBS but some it got gobbled up, and they went to make it the RBS Group.

    Didn;t Fred the shred mastermind that one?

    Then he went around the market trying to buy up every takeover target in sight, with disastrous results?
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 2,981

    Sunak will make a great next PM when Boris retires in 2028.

    I don't think the party will let him continue as long as that
    He won an 80 seat majority, still leads in the polls and on favourability ratings is polling the same now as he was before the election last year.

    The party will defenestrate failing leaders but it took years to get rid of even Theresa May. Johnson is no May. Two terms is a good length of time for a PM, 2028 gives Sunak a year to be in charge before the 2029 General Election.
    Johnson will be a liability in 2024, never mind 2029. And the big weakness in your argument about Sunak as his replacement is your assumption that the Chancellor of the E's current popularity will survive the economic tsunami to come. Changing an unpopular leader only works when it's seen as a change of direction. If Johnson's eventual unpopularity comes about on the back of economic failures, putting the Chancellor in charge won't work.

    The parallel is I think with Anthony Barber, someone initially seen as integral to the Heath government's initial popularity as expansionary policies were followed, only to be seen as the architect of the retrenchment that eventually followed. Barber wouldn't have saved the Conservatives in 1974.
    You're assuming there's going to be an economic tsunami. You're assuming economic failure.

    If the government guides the country through COVID, through the end of transition and there is post vaccine from 2021 onwards a boom in the UK economy . . . then Boris will deserve a second majority victory and Sunak will be well placed to replace him when the Tories look for a sixth election victory in a row in 2029.
    Yes, that is indeed what I am assuming. And I think my assumptions are going to be closer to the eventual reality than your very rosy ones.
  • Alphabet_SoupAlphabet_Soup Posts: 541

    The death of a meme was announced today,

    Peacefully at home (location unclear) after a long illness, 'RBS will leave an indy Scotland' passed away in its sleep surrounded by regretful Unionists.

    Nae floors.

    Requiescat in pace


    'RBS will leave Scotland if voters back independence'

    https://tinyurl.com/y3cx9gzm

    'SCOTLAND BOMBSHELL: Royal Bank to move to LONDON if Sturgeon wins independence'

    https://tinyurl.com/y6atrk6n

    'RBS threatens to quit Scotland if SNP wins independence as it rebrands to NatWest'

    https://tinyurl.com/y3ot4k8o

    'RBS ditches toxic name after nearly 300 years: Bank to be called Natwest from today'

    https://tinyurl.com/y6sjertl

    The last doesn't seem to deal with the issues from the former: Is Natwest going to be based in London or Scotland?
    Still based in Edinburgh, no jobs are being transferred or lost, the HQ is in Edinburgh.

    It's simple logic, people get enraged about RBS, work in a RBS call centre when people ring up in financial distress, say you lot get bailed out, I want a bailout.

    Natwest is more benign, plus Natwest represents circa 80% of the group's trade.
    So next referendum the line would be "Natwest threatens to relocate to London . . . "
    Clue's in the name. See Hong Kong & Shanghai Banking Corporation similarly. Weren't they also heading back to the folks from whence they came?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 82,942

    The death of a meme was announced today,

    Peacefully at home (location unclear) after a long illness, 'RBS will leave an indy Scotland' passed away in its sleep surrounded by regretful Unionists.

    Nae floors.

    Requiescat in pace


    'RBS will leave Scotland if voters back independence'

    https://tinyurl.com/y3cx9gzm

    'SCOTLAND BOMBSHELL: Royal Bank to move to LONDON if Sturgeon wins independence'

    https://tinyurl.com/y6atrk6n

    'RBS threatens to quit Scotland if SNP wins independence as it rebrands to NatWest'

    https://tinyurl.com/y3ot4k8o

    'RBS ditches toxic name after nearly 300 years: Bank to be called Natwest from today'

    https://tinyurl.com/y6sjertl

    The last doesn't seem to deal with the issues from the former: Is Natwest going to be based in London or Scotland?
    Still based in Edinburgh, no jobs are being transferred or lost, the HQ is in Edinburgh.

    It's simple logic, people get enraged about RBS, work in a RBS call centre when people ring up in financial distress, say you lot get bailed out, I want a bailout.

    Natwest is more benign, plus Natwest represents circa 80% of the group's trade.
    So next referendum the line would be "Natwest threatens to relocate to London . . . "
    Indeed.
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 907
    Just 10 deaths in English hospitals today so probably 300 in all settings
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 82,942
    edited July 22

    The whole RBS/NatWest thing goes back to the original takeover by RBS of NatWest.

    NatWest was much bigger than RBS but some it got gobbled up, and they went to make it the RBS Group.

    Didn;t Fred the shred mastermind that one?

    Then he went around the market trying to buy up every takeover target in sight, with disastrous results?
    Nope, that was before his time.

    Edit - Well he was there, but it was mostly down to the then CEO Sir George Matthewson.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 33,319

    The death of a meme was announced today,

    Peacefully at home (location unclear) after a long illness, 'RBS will leave an indy Scotland' passed away in its sleep surrounded by regretful Unionists.

    Nae floors.

    Requiescat in pace


    'RBS will leave Scotland if voters back independence'

    https://tinyurl.com/y3cx9gzm

    'SCOTLAND BOMBSHELL: Royal Bank to move to LONDON if Sturgeon wins independence'

    https://tinyurl.com/y6atrk6n

    'RBS threatens to quit Scotland if SNP wins independence as it rebrands to NatWest'

    https://tinyurl.com/y3ot4k8o

    'RBS ditches toxic name after nearly 300 years: Bank to be called Natwest from today'

    https://tinyurl.com/y6sjertl

    The last doesn't seem to deal with the issues from the former: Is Natwest going to be based in London or Scotland?
    Still based in Edinburgh, no jobs are being transferred or lost, the HQ is in Edinburgh.

    It's simple logic, people get enraged about RBS, work in a RBS call centre when people ring up in financial distress, say you lot get bailed out, I want a bailout.

    Natwest is more benign, plus Natwest represents circa 80% of the group's trade.
    So next referendum the line would be "Natwest threatens to relocate to London . . . "
    Indeed.
    Westminster by name, Westminster by nature.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 37,085

    Sunak will make a great next PM when Boris retires in 2028.

    I don't think the party will let him continue as long as that
    He won an 80 seat majority, still leads in the polls and on favourability ratings is polling the same now as he was before the election last year.

    The party will defenestrate failing leaders but it took years to get rid of even Theresa May. Johnson is no May. Two terms is a good length of time for a PM, 2028 gives Sunak a year to be in charge before the 2029 General Election.
    Johnson will be a liability in 2024, never mind 2029. And the big weakness in your argument about Sunak as his replacement is your assumption that the Chancellor of the E's current popularity will survive the economic tsunami to come. Changing an unpopular leader only works when it's seen as a change of direction. If Johnson's eventual unpopularity comes about on the back of economic failures, putting the Chancellor in charge won't work.

    The parallel is I think with Anthony Barber, someone initially seen as integral to the Heath government's initial popularity as expansionary policies were followed, only to be seen as the architect of the retrenchment that eventually followed. Barber wouldn't have saved the Conservatives in 1974.
    You're assuming there's going to be an economic tsunami. You're assuming economic failure.

    If the government guides the country through COVID, through the end of transition and there is post vaccine from 2021 onwards a boom in the UK economy . . . then Boris will deserve a second majority victory and Sunak will be well placed to replace him when the Tories look for a sixth election victory in a row in 2029.
    Yes, that is indeed what I am assuming. And I think my assumptions are going to be closer to the eventual reality than your very rosy ones.
    To be clear I think there's going to be a very deep recession this year, awfully bad. But going forward that sets a low baseline that will permit booming growth as the economy gets rebuilt. Similar to the 1920s for 1918 pandemic and WWI and also similar to the boom times that followed WWII. Devastation leaves behind potential for booming growth afterwards.

    But having said that, would you say that if I am right and you are wrong and the economy is booming by 2024 then Boris and Sunak would deserve kudos and maybe another election victory?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 5,106
    Just had a flash from the Express, "Boris shames Starmer over Russia". I take it Starmer had another mare. And it all started so well.

    Philip Thompson may be right about Johnson's tenure reaching the end of the decade.
  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 1,672

    The death of a meme was announced today,

    Peacefully at home (location unclear) after a long illness, 'RBS will leave an indy Scotland' passed away in its sleep surrounded by regretful Unionists.

    Nae floors.

    Requiescat in pace


    'RBS will leave Scotland if voters back independence'

    https://tinyurl.com/y3cx9gzm

    'SCOTLAND BOMBSHELL: Royal Bank to move to LONDON if Sturgeon wins independence'

    https://tinyurl.com/y6atrk6n

    'RBS threatens to quit Scotland if SNP wins independence as it rebrands to NatWest'

    https://tinyurl.com/y3ot4k8o

    'RBS ditches toxic name after nearly 300 years: Bank to be called Natwest from today'

    https://tinyurl.com/y6sjertl

    I remember SLAB once arguing against changing the income tax rates in Scotland because "people like Fred Goodwin might move south of the border". If only.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 82,942
    edited July 22

    The death of a meme was announced today,

    Peacefully at home (location unclear) after a long illness, 'RBS will leave an indy Scotland' passed away in its sleep surrounded by regretful Unionists.

    Nae floors.

    Requiescat in pace


    'RBS will leave Scotland if voters back independence'

    https://tinyurl.com/y3cx9gzm

    'SCOTLAND BOMBSHELL: Royal Bank to move to LONDON if Sturgeon wins independence'

    https://tinyurl.com/y6atrk6n

    'RBS threatens to quit Scotland if SNP wins independence as it rebrands to NatWest'

    https://tinyurl.com/y3ot4k8o

    'RBS ditches toxic name after nearly 300 years: Bank to be called Natwest from today'

    https://tinyurl.com/y6sjertl

    The last doesn't seem to deal with the issues from the former: Is Natwest going to be based in London or Scotland?
    Still based in Edinburgh, no jobs are being transferred or lost, the HQ is in Edinburgh.

    It's simple logic, people get enraged about RBS, work in a RBS call centre when people ring up in financial distress, say you lot get bailed out, I want a bailout.

    Natwest is more benign, plus Natwest represents circa 80% of the group's trade.
    So next referendum the line would be "Natwest threatens to relocate to London . . . "
    Indeed.
    Westminster by name, Westminster by nature.
    Well I strongly suggested that the National and Westminster brands were too plebian, and we should have gone for the Coutts Group instead of the the NatWest group.

    Coutts are wonderful.
  • Alphabet_SoupAlphabet_Soup Posts: 541

    The death of a meme was announced today,

    Peacefully at home (location unclear) after a long illness, 'RBS will leave an indy Scotland' passed away in its sleep surrounded by regretful Unionists.

    Nae floors.

    Requiescat in pace


    'RBS will leave Scotland if voters back independence'

    https://tinyurl.com/y3cx9gzm

    'SCOTLAND BOMBSHELL: Royal Bank to move to LONDON if Sturgeon wins independence'

    https://tinyurl.com/y6atrk6n

    'RBS threatens to quit Scotland if SNP wins independence as it rebrands to NatWest'

    https://tinyurl.com/y3ot4k8o

    'RBS ditches toxic name after nearly 300 years: Bank to be called Natwest from today'

    https://tinyurl.com/y6sjertl

    The last doesn't seem to deal with the issues from the former: Is Natwest going to be based in London or Scotland?
    Still based in Edinburgh, no jobs are being transferred or lost, the HQ is in Edinburgh.

    It's simple logic, people get enraged about RBS, work in a RBS call centre when people ring up in financial distress, say you lot get bailed out, I want a bailout.

    Natwest is more benign, plus Natwest represents circa 80% of the group's trade.
    So next referendum the line would be "Natwest threatens to relocate to London . . . "
    Indeed.
    Westminster by name, Westminster by nature.
    And National. And Provincial.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 5,764
    NHS Hospital numbers out

    Headline - 10 - another low
    Last 7 days - 10
    Yesterday - 3

    image
    image
    image
    image
    image
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 82,942
    edited July 22
    Controversial opinion which I'm going to leave here, Fred Goodwin was unlucky, Barclays also went for ABN Amro, Barclays got 'lucky' and missed out on the deal that ultimately sent RBS mammary glands up.

    We'd be all detesting Barclays instead of RBS today.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 37,085

    Controversial opinion which I'm going to leave here, Fred Goodwin was unlucky, Barclays also went for ABN Amaro, Barclays got 'lucky' and missed out on the deal that ultimately sent RBS mammary glands up.

    We'd be all detesting Barclays instead of RBS today.

    Is that luck?

    I'm assuming Barclays missed out because they determined ABN Amro was not worth the price that RBS valued it at when they bought it?
  • Just had a flash from the Express, "Boris shames Starmer over Russia". I take it Starmer had another mare. And it all started so well.

    Philip Thompson may be right about Johnson's tenure reaching the end of the decade.

    The user in question completely missed the point of my Tweet above, where not only did the TORY MP in question get Starmer's previous role wrong (he was never deputy leader), he said Starmer never called out Russia, when he was on QT backing the PM (see the comments for the video).

    Of course the Tory bots here will just back Johnson even if he was literally caught f-ing a pig (haha) so there you go
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 20,282

    The death of a meme was announced today,

    Peacefully at home (location unclear) after a long illness, 'RBS will leave an indy Scotland' passed away in its sleep surrounded by regretful Unionists.

    Nae floors.

    Requiescat in pace


    'RBS will leave Scotland if voters back independence'

    https://tinyurl.com/y3cx9gzm

    'SCOTLAND BOMBSHELL: Royal Bank to move to LONDON if Sturgeon wins independence'

    https://tinyurl.com/y6atrk6n

    'RBS threatens to quit Scotland if SNP wins independence as it rebrands to NatWest'

    https://tinyurl.com/y3ot4k8o

    'RBS ditches toxic name after nearly 300 years: Bank to be called Natwest from today'

    https://tinyurl.com/y6sjertl

    The last doesn't seem to deal with the issues from the former: Is Natwest going to be based in London or Scotland?
    Still based in Edinburgh, no jobs are being transferred or lost, the HQ is in Edinburgh.

    It's simple logic, people get enraged about RBS, work in a RBS branch or call centre when people ring up in financial distress, say you lot get bailed out, I want a bailout.

    Natwest is more benign, plus Natwest represents circa 80% of the group's trade.

    Edit - RBS is still being retained for the existing branch network/cards/business.
    Its probably about 12-18 months until it relocates to London and spins out it's Scottish bank into a new company under the RBS brand. It's the beginning of a demerger, the London based management are asserting themselves, as you say it's responsible for 80% of the group's revenue. The last vestiges of the financial crash will have been dealt with once that happens.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 5,106

    The death of a meme was announced today,

    Peacefully at home (location unclear) after a long illness, 'RBS will leave an indy Scotland' passed away in its sleep surrounded by regretful Unionists.

    Nae floors.

    Requiescat in pace


    'RBS will leave Scotland if voters back independence'

    https://tinyurl.com/y3cx9gzm

    'SCOTLAND BOMBSHELL: Royal Bank to move to LONDON if Sturgeon wins independence'

    https://tinyurl.com/y6atrk6n

    'RBS threatens to quit Scotland if SNP wins independence as it rebrands to NatWest'

    https://tinyurl.com/y3ot4k8o

    'RBS ditches toxic name after nearly 300 years: Bank to be called Natwest from today'

    https://tinyurl.com/y6sjertl

    The last doesn't seem to deal with the issues from the former: Is Natwest going to be based in London or Scotland?
    Still based in Edinburgh, no jobs are being transferred or lost, the HQ is in Edinburgh.

    It's simple logic, people get enraged about RBS, work in a RBS call centre when people ring up in financial distress, say you lot get bailed out, I want a bailout.

    Natwest is more benign, plus Natwest represents circa 80% of the group's trade.
    So next referendum the line would be "Natwest threatens to relocate to London . . . "
    Indeed.
    Westminster by name, Westminster by nature.
    Well I strongly suggested that the National and Westminster brands were too plebian, and we should have gone for the Coutts Group instead of the the NatWest group.

    Coutts are wonderful.
    NatWest are not!
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,163
    There's no doubt Sunak is a greater threat than Starmer to Boris
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 5,764

    Controversial opinion which I'm going to leave here, Fred Goodwin was unlucky, Barclays also went for ABN Amaro, Barclays got 'lucky' and missed out on the deal that ultimately sent RBS mammary glands up.

    We'd be all detesting Barclays instead of RBS today.

    Actually, Barclays looked at ABN Amaro. They decided it was over priced and walked away. For which they were roundly criticised at the time IIRC.

    Sometimes luck is actually due diligence.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 82,942
    MaxPB said:

    The death of a meme was announced today,

    Peacefully at home (location unclear) after a long illness, 'RBS will leave an indy Scotland' passed away in its sleep surrounded by regretful Unionists.

    Nae floors.

    Requiescat in pace


    'RBS will leave Scotland if voters back independence'

    https://tinyurl.com/y3cx9gzm

    'SCOTLAND BOMBSHELL: Royal Bank to move to LONDON if Sturgeon wins independence'

    https://tinyurl.com/y6atrk6n

    'RBS threatens to quit Scotland if SNP wins independence as it rebrands to NatWest'

    https://tinyurl.com/y3ot4k8o

    'RBS ditches toxic name after nearly 300 years: Bank to be called Natwest from today'

    https://tinyurl.com/y6sjertl

    The last doesn't seem to deal with the issues from the former: Is Natwest going to be based in London or Scotland?
    Still based in Edinburgh, no jobs are being transferred or lost, the HQ is in Edinburgh.

    It's simple logic, people get enraged about RBS, work in a RBS branch or call centre when people ring up in financial distress, say you lot get bailed out, I want a bailout.

    Natwest is more benign, plus Natwest represents circa 80% of the group's trade.

    Edit - RBS is still being retained for the existing branch network/cards/business.
    Its probably about 12-18 months until it relocates to London and spins out it's Scottish bank into a new company under the RBS brand. It's the beginning of a demerger, the London based management are asserting themselves, as you say it's responsible for 80% of the group's revenue. The last vestiges of the financial crash will have been dealt with once that happens.
    RBS isn't very good at demerging, as the sell off the RBS Branches in England/NatWest branches in Scotland to Santander and Co-Op* prove, and don't even get me started on Williams & Glyn spin off.

    *Although we could blame the Crystal Methodist for that one.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 5,106

    Just had a flash from the Express, "Boris shames Starmer over Russia". I take it Starmer had another mare. And it all started so well.

    Philip Thompson may be right about Johnson's tenure reaching the end of the decade.

    The user in question completely missed the point of my Tweet above, where not only did the TORY MP in question get Starmer's previous role wrong (he was never deputy leader), he said Starmer never called out Russia, when he was on QT backing the PM (see the comments for the video).

    Of course the Tory bots here will just back Johnson even if he was literally caught f-ing a pig (haha) so there you go
    I am on lunch, I didn't hear PMQs. I just got the Express headline pinged through on Google updates.

    They were implying Johnson humiliated Starmer. Anyway back to work.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 82,942

    Controversial opinion which I'm going to leave here, Fred Goodwin was unlucky, Barclays also went for ABN Amaro, Barclays got 'lucky' and missed out on the deal that ultimately sent RBS mammary glands up.

    We'd be all detesting Barclays instead of RBS today.

    Actually, Barclays looked at ABN Amaro. They decided it was over priced and walked away. For which they were roundly criticised at the time IIRC.

    Sometimes luck is actually due diligence.
    IIRC ABN Amro withdrew support for the support for the deal rather than Barclays walking away first.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 5,664
    MaxPB said:

    More letter writing sophistry. Expect the Tory poll lead to go up.
    I'm not making any claims about polling moves. But it is not sophistry.
    PM says not going back to austerity.
    Chancellor says we're going back to austerity.
    One of them is lying / not in possession of the facts
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 1,919

    Controversial opinion which I'm going to leave here, Fred Goodwin was unlucky, Barclays also went for ABN Amro, Barclays got 'lucky' and missed out on the deal that ultimately sent RBS mammary glands up.

    We'd be all detesting Barclays instead of RBS today.

    If i remember rightly Barclays did actually bid for ABN before RBS did, but Fred piled in with a higher bid.

    And then Bob Diamond refused a higher counter...??
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 20,282

    Controversial opinion which I'm going to leave here, Fred Goodwin was unlucky, Barclays also went for ABN Amaro, Barclays got 'lucky' and missed out on the deal that ultimately sent RBS mammary glands up.

    We'd be all detesting Barclays instead of RBS today.

    Actually, Barclays looked at ABN Amaro. They decided it was over priced and walked away. For which they were roundly criticised at the time IIRC.

    Sometimes luck is actually due diligence.
    The Barclays deal was all-share as well, so it wouldn't have been the same level of carnage, though they would need bailing out by the UK and Netherlands governments, just to a lesser extent than RBS needed bailiang out.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 15,267

    Controversial opinion which I'm going to leave here, Fred Goodwin was unlucky, Barclays also went for ABN Amro, Barclays got 'lucky' and missed out on the deal that ultimately sent RBS mammary glands up.

    We'd be all detesting Barclays instead of RBS today.

    Only because they chose to pay huge quantities of money, fail to do any due diligence and get terrible terms (they lost out on a lot of the talent in the deal).

    Goodwin was an utter certin. The videos of the investor calls before and after the acquisition are toe curlingly awful.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 5,764

    Controversial opinion which I'm going to leave here, Fred Goodwin was unlucky, Barclays also went for ABN Amro, Barclays got 'lucky' and missed out on the deal that ultimately sent RBS mammary glands up.

    We'd be all detesting Barclays instead of RBS today.

    If i remember rightly Barclays did actually bid for ABN before RBS did, but Fred piled in with a higher bid.

    And then Bob Diamond refused a higher counter...??
    I believe that is right - Barclay refused to get in a bidding war. IIRC there was some scuttlebutt stuff that they were regretting their original offer.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 82,942
    Alistair said:

    Controversial opinion which I'm going to leave here, Fred Goodwin was unlucky, Barclays also went for ABN Amro, Barclays got 'lucky' and missed out on the deal that ultimately sent RBS mammary glands up.

    We'd be all detesting Barclays instead of RBS today.

    Only because they chose to pay huge quantities of money, fail to do any due diligence and get terrible terms (they lost out on a lot of the talent in the deal).

    Goodwin was an utter certin. The videos of the investor calls before and after the acquisition are toe curlingly awful.
    I said it was a controversial opinion.

    I mean at the time people thought it was RBS who had got lucky with the deal, there was some enthusiastic backers of the deal, IIRC Alex Salmond did some cringeworthy support of the deal, although I can forgive him as he was an ex RBS employee.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 24,155

    Controversial opinion which I'm going to leave here, Fred Goodwin was unlucky, Barclays also went for ABN Amro, Barclays got 'lucky' and missed out on the deal that ultimately sent RBS mammary glands up.

    We'd be all detesting Barclays instead of RBS today.

    To a certain extent. Fred was a bit of good luck (ie no GFC) away from a stonking deal which would have made him a hero.

    His error/hubris was to persevere at the same bid price when the sector had rerated down by half.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 10,739

    Away from the Sunak campaign, the PB Fantasy League is coming to a nail-biting conclusion... 4 in with a chance of top spot.

    Belated congrats to Liverpool and their fans. Thoroughly deserved title obv.

    Starmer is positioned really well to compare/contrast vs Corbyn as we're seeing now on national security. His being in the shad cabinet under Corbyn is presumably a bit of a weakness but likely not to matter.

    Spurs may be winning but the 'style' is not welcome. Jose needs WHL to be left empty for it to work.

    Boris is what he's always been.....

    I haven't logged in since Xmas but I suspect I am last like my beloved Canaries
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 82,942

    Away from the Sunak campaign, the PB Fantasy League is coming to a nail-biting conclusion... 4 in with a chance of top spot.

    Belated congrats to Liverpool and their fans. Thoroughly deserved title obv.

    Starmer is positioned really well to compare/contrast vs Corbyn as we're seeing now on national security. His being in the shad cabinet under Corbyn is presumably a bit of a weakness but likely not to matter.

    Spurs may be winning but the 'style' is not welcome. Jose needs WHL to be left empty for it to work.

    Boris is what he's always been.....

    I haven't logged in since Xmas but I suspect I am last like my beloved Canaries
    Nope, last is some chap called Aaron Bell, anyone know what happened to him?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 60,345

    Just had a flash from the Express, "Boris shames Starmer over Russia". I take it Starmer had another mare. And it all started so well.

    Philip Thompson may be right about Johnson's tenure reaching the end of the decade.

    The user in question completely missed the point of my Tweet above, where not only did the TORY MP in question get Starmer's previous role wrong (he was never deputy leader), he said Starmer never called out Russia, when he was on QT backing the PM (see the comments for the video).

    Of course the Tory bots here will just back Johnson even if he was literally caught f-ing a pig (haha) so there you go
    I am on lunch, I didn't hear PMQs. I just got the Express headline pinged through on Google updates.

    They were implying Johnson humiliated Starmer. Anyway back to work.
    It's the Express. Most pro Boris & Brexit paper of the lot.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 12,809

    Controversial opinion which I'm going to leave here, Fred Goodwin was unlucky, Barclays also went for ABN Amro, Barclays got 'lucky' and missed out on the deal that ultimately sent RBS mammary glands up.

    We'd be all detesting Barclays instead of RBS today.

    Not controversial with me. Although I prefer to express it as Bob Diamond got lucky. This works better since it avoids warm sentiments about either of these blinkered egocentric fools.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 37,085

    Away from the Sunak campaign, the PB Fantasy League is coming to a nail-biting conclusion... 4 in with a chance of top spot.

    Belated congrats to Liverpool and their fans. Thoroughly deserved title obv.

    Starmer is positioned really well to compare/contrast vs Corbyn as we're seeing now on national security. His being in the shad cabinet under Corbyn is presumably a bit of a weakness but likely not to matter.

    Spurs may be winning but the 'style' is not welcome. Jose needs WHL to be left empty for it to work.

    Boris is what he's always been.....

    I haven't logged in since Xmas but I suspect I am last like my beloved Canaries
    Nope, last is some chap called Aaron Bell, anyone know what happened to him?
    Somebody pass him a Tissue, but given how the last 12 months have gone for if the Price for that is being last I'm sure he'll survive.
  • Fysics_TeacherFysics_Teacher Posts: 2,809
    edited July 22

    MaxPB said:

    More letter writing sophistry. Expect the Tory poll lead to go up.
    I'm not making any claims about polling moves. But it is not sophistry.
    PM says not going back to austerity.
    Chancellor says we're going back to austerity.
    One of them is lying / not in possession of the facts
    Or each is using a different definition of austerity.

    Edit: or more to the point, the PM’s definition of austerity does not match yours. I can’t see where the Chancellor has called what he is doing austerity.
  • EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,880



    This is the powerful stuff, breaking down the idea Johnson is any different to the previous lot
    It's a bold play, trying to blur the lines between Cameron/May and Johnson and draw a line between himself and Corbyn in the same PMQs.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 20,282
    TOPPING said:

    Controversial opinion which I'm going to leave here, Fred Goodwin was unlucky, Barclays also went for ABN Amro, Barclays got 'lucky' and missed out on the deal that ultimately sent RBS mammary glands up.

    We'd be all detesting Barclays instead of RBS today.

    To a certain extent. Fred was a bit of good luck (ie no GFC) away from a stonking deal which would have made him a hero.

    His error/hubris was to persevere at the same bid price when the sector had rerated down by half.
    And making it a cash deal. At least the original Barclays deal was all shares and was contingent on generating $20bn in cash from selling LaSalle.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 5,764
    https://www.thejc.com/news/uk/corbyn-milne-and-formby-attempt-to-stop-labour-apology-1.501779

    I see that Corbyn is continuing with his classic strategy -

    1) When in a hole...
    2) ...Borrow Bagger 288 and really go for it.
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 3,725

    Away from the Sunak campaign, the PB Fantasy League is coming to a nail-biting conclusion... 4 in with a chance of top spot.

    Belated congrats to Liverpool and their fans. Thoroughly deserved title obv.

    Starmer is positioned really well to compare/contrast vs Corbyn as we're seeing now on national security. His being in the shad cabinet under Corbyn is presumably a bit of a weakness but likely not to matter.

    Spurs may be winning but the 'style' is not welcome. Jose needs WHL to be left empty for it to work.

    Boris is what he's always been.....

    I haven't logged in since Xmas but I suspect I am last like my beloved Canaries
    Nope, last is some chap called Aaron Bell, anyone know what happened to him?
    Somebody pass him a Tissue, but given how the last 12 months have gone for if the Price for that is being last I'm sure he'll survive.
    But you'd think he could make the occasional visit here after all we've done for him.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 24,155
    MaxPB said:

    TOPPING said:

    Controversial opinion which I'm going to leave here, Fred Goodwin was unlucky, Barclays also went for ABN Amro, Barclays got 'lucky' and missed out on the deal that ultimately sent RBS mammary glands up.

    We'd be all detesting Barclays instead of RBS today.

    To a certain extent. Fred was a bit of good luck (ie no GFC) away from a stonking deal which would have made him a hero.

    His error/hubris was to persevere at the same bid price when the sector had rerated down by half.
    And making it a cash deal. At least the original Barclays deal was all shares and was contingent on generating $20bn in cash from selling LaSalle.
    Yep
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 4,542

    Or each is using a different definition of austerity.

    No return to Os-terity

    This is Bos-terity instead.

    It's like Os-terity, but has a Union flag painted on it. And costs a lot more...
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 4,542
    Once again BoZo dithers, while Starmer acts.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 8,482

    Sunak will make a great next PM when Boris retires in 2028.

    I don't think the party will let him continue as long as that
    He won an 80 seat majority, still leads in the polls and on favourability ratings is polling the same now as he was before the election last year.

    The party will defenestrate failing leaders but it took years to get rid of even Theresa May. Johnson is no May. Two terms is a good length of time for a PM, 2028 gives Sunak a year to be in charge before the 2029 General Election.
    Johnson will be a liability in 2024, never mind 2029. And the big weakness in your argument about Sunak as his replacement is your assumption that the Chancellor of the E's current popularity will survive the economic tsunami to come. Changing an unpopular leader only works when it's seen as a change of direction. If Johnson's eventual unpopularity comes about on the back of economic failures, putting the Chancellor in charge won't work.

    The parallel is I think with Anthony Barber, someone initially seen as integral to the Heath government's initial popularity as expansionary policies were followed, only to be seen as the architect of the retrenchment that eventually followed. Barber wouldn't have saved the Conservatives in 1974.
    You're assuming there's going to be an economic tsunami. You're assuming economic failure.

    If the government guides the country through COVID, through the end of transition and there is post vaccine from 2021 onwards a boom in the UK economy . . . then Boris will deserve a second majority victory and Sunak will be well placed to replace him when the Tories look for a sixth election victory in a row in 2029.
    Brexit will cost money, Covid-19 will cost money, so expecting a boom is deluded.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 37,085

    MaxPB said:

    More letter writing sophistry. Expect the Tory poll lead to go up.
    I'm not making any claims about polling moves. But it is not sophistry.
    PM says not going back to austerity.
    Chancellor says we're going back to austerity.
    One of them is lying / not in possession of the facts
    The Chancellor never said we're going back to austerity. The Chancellor said and was quoted by Dodds as saying that the Treasury would need "restraint".

    Jeez, if you're saying "restraint" is austerity then I hope Labour never get back in power. A lack of restraint by Brown is what made a decade of austerity necessary to recover from his largesse!
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 37,085

    Sunak will make a great next PM when Boris retires in 2028.

    I don't think the party will let him continue as long as that
    He won an 80 seat majority, still leads in the polls and on favourability ratings is polling the same now as he was before the election last year.

    The party will defenestrate failing leaders but it took years to get rid of even Theresa May. Johnson is no May. Two terms is a good length of time for a PM, 2028 gives Sunak a year to be in charge before the 2029 General Election.
    Johnson will be a liability in 2024, never mind 2029. And the big weakness in your argument about Sunak as his replacement is your assumption that the Chancellor of the E's current popularity will survive the economic tsunami to come. Changing an unpopular leader only works when it's seen as a change of direction. If Johnson's eventual unpopularity comes about on the back of economic failures, putting the Chancellor in charge won't work.

    The parallel is I think with Anthony Barber, someone initially seen as integral to the Heath government's initial popularity as expansionary policies were followed, only to be seen as the architect of the retrenchment that eventually followed. Barber wouldn't have saved the Conservatives in 1974.
    You're assuming there's going to be an economic tsunami. You're assuming economic failure.

    If the government guides the country through COVID, through the end of transition and there is post vaccine from 2021 onwards a boom in the UK economy . . . then Boris will deserve a second majority victory and Sunak will be well placed to replace him when the Tories look for a sixth election victory in a row in 2029.
    Brexit will cost money, Covid-19 will cost money, so expecting a boom is deluded.
    And WWI didn't cost money? The Spanish Flu didn't cost money? WWII didn't cost money? They were both followed by two of the biggest booms this country has ever seen.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 6,023
    edited July 22
    Scott_xP said:
    She did that years ago.

    And he wasn't a MP or MSP either.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 1,919
    edited July 22
    Scott_xP said:
    Does the SNP all of a sudden have a ''Russia problem?''

    There's something in the Speccie about Scottish Independence being something Putin wants.
  • isamisam Posts: 33,119



    This is the powerful stuff, breaking down the idea Johnson is any different to the previous lot
    The problem with that is the supporters of the last lot are hostile to Boris, this government hasn’t really been in charge for ten years
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 21,106
    Carnyx said:

    Scott_xP said:
    She did that years ago.

    And he wasn't a MP or MSP either.
    Just so.

    'Nicola Sturgeon has led condemnation of Alex Salmond, her predecessor as Scotland’s first minister, over his decision to host a chat show on a TV channel backed by the Kremlin.'



    One wonders whether Team SKS are just displaying the standard Lab ignorance & lack of interest in matters Scotch or if they thought they'd just get the dig in anyway and hope no one notices.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 37,085
    Mr Divvie - if they thought the SNP and its supporters would simply sit back as they get attacked and not notice and not respond then they're dimmer than they look.

    Mr Forensic strikes again!
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 4,542

    One wonders whether Team SKS are just displaying the standard Lab ignorance & lack of interest in matters Scotch or if they thought they'd just get the dig in anyway and hope no one notices.

    Probably more to do with this



    ...apart from Alex, who not only led the movement and the party, but shills on TV
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 17,637

    NHS Hospital numbers out

    Headline - 10 - another low
    Last 7 days - 10
    Yesterday - 3

    image
    image
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    Yesterday was a 0.

    3 deaths each for 20/7 and 19/7.
  • EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,880
    isam said:



    This is the powerful stuff, breaking down the idea Johnson is any different to the previous lot
    The problem with that is the supporters of the last lot are hostile to Boris, this government hasn’t really been in charge for ten years
    By contrast Starmer was in Corbyn's shadow cabinet right until the end, and even put one of Corbyn's lieutenants in his own shadow cabinet - though she gave him a nice opportunity to remove her.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 6,023

    Carnyx said:

    Scott_xP said:
    She did that years ago.

    And he wasn't a MP or MSP either.
    Just so.

    'Nicola Sturgeon has led condemnation of Alex Salmond, her predecessor as Scotland’s first minister, over his decision to host a chat show on a TV channel backed by the Kremlin.'



    One wonders whether Team SKS are just displaying the standard Lab ignorance & lack of interest in matters Scotch or if they thought they'd just get the dig in anyway and hope no one notices.
    The question is whether they have improved over Mr Corbyn - remember his lecturing a Scottish audience on the need to renationalise water, do something about the bedroom tax, etc.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 15,267
    TOPPING said:

    Controversial opinion which I'm going to leave here, Fred Goodwin was unlucky, Barclays also went for ABN Amro, Barclays got 'lucky' and missed out on the deal that ultimately sent RBS mammary glands up.

    We'd be all detesting Barclays instead of RBS today.

    To a certain extent. Fred was a bit of good luck (ie no GFC) away from a stonking deal which would have made him a hero.

    His error/hubris was to persevere at the same bid price when the sector had rerated down by half.
    It was a shite deal sans crash. They got the asset book but didn't get a whole pile of the staff.

    As the whole point of the deal for RBS was to buy in expertise it was a massive failure.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 2,187

    The death of a meme was announced today,

    Peacefully at home (location unclear) after a long illness, 'RBS will leave an indy Scotland' passed away in its sleep surrounded by regretful Unionists.

    Nae floors.

    Requiescat in pace


    'RBS will leave Scotland if voters back independence'

    https://tinyurl.com/y3cx9gzm

    'SCOTLAND BOMBSHELL: Royal Bank to move to LONDON if Sturgeon wins independence'

    https://tinyurl.com/y6atrk6n

    'RBS threatens to quit Scotland if SNP wins independence as it rebrands to NatWest'

    https://tinyurl.com/y3ot4k8o

    'RBS ditches toxic name after nearly 300 years: Bank to be called Natwest from today'

    https://tinyurl.com/y6sjertl

    The last doesn't seem to deal with the issues from the former: Is Natwest going to be based in London or Scotland?
    Still based in Edinburgh, no jobs are being transferred or lost, the HQ is in Edinburgh.

    It's simple logic, people get enraged about RBS, work in a RBS call centre when people ring up in financial distress, say you lot get bailed out, I want a bailout.

    Natwest is more benign, plus Natwest represents circa 80% of the group's trade.
    So next referendum the line would be "Natwest threatens to relocate to London . . . "
    Nat West promised to help me with certain things when my wife died, and then they reneged so I moved to HSBC who I am now dumping because of their stance on Hong Kong.
    Difficult to know where to go to.... Barclays has history with S Africa, Lloyds is Lloyds. as I say difficult...
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 37,085
    Essexit said:

    isam said:



    This is the powerful stuff, breaking down the idea Johnson is any different to the previous lot
    The problem with that is the supporters of the last lot are hostile to Boris, this government hasn’t really been in charge for ten years
    By contrast Starmer was in Corbyn's shadow cabinet right until the end, and even put one of Corbyn's lieutenants in his own shadow cabinet - though she gave him a nice opportunity to remove her.
    Indeed. When Boris took over he was happy to purge the Cabinet - then even the Party of those who couldn't get aboard his project and move on from May.

    Starmer OTOH campaigned as a "unity" candidate rather than campaigning to vanquish Corbynism.
  • eekeek Posts: 8,645
    isam said:



    This is the powerful stuff, breaking down the idea Johnson is any different to the previous lot
    The problem with that is the supporters of the last lot are hostile to Boris, this government hasn’t really been in charge for ten years
    This Government wears the badge of a group that has been in power for 10 years.

    The leadership at the top may have slightly changed but it's the same group...
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 21,106
    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    Scott_xP said:
    She did that years ago.

    And he wasn't a MP or MSP either.
    Just so.

    'Nicola Sturgeon has led condemnation of Alex Salmond, her predecessor as Scotland’s first minister, over his decision to host a chat show on a TV channel backed by the Kremlin.'



    One wonders whether Team SKS are just displaying the standard Lab ignorance & lack of interest in matters Scotch or if they thought they'd just get the dig in anyway and hope no one notices.
    The question is whether they have improved over Mr Corbyn - remember his lecturing a Scottish audience on the need to renationalise water, do something about the bedroom tax, etc.
    With Ian Murray as the throbbing intellectual powerhouse of Labour Unionism, I fear improvement is the least likely option.
This discussion has been closed.