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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Trump voters maybe far more enthusiastic about their man than

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited July 23 in General
imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Trump voters maybe far more enthusiastic about their man than Biden ones but that is only part of the story

The above chart is from an interesting analysis from Nate Silver’s 538 site on the so-called enthusiasm gap between supporters for the President and his Democratic opponent. This is based on polling that those planning to vote for Trump on November 2nd are twice as likely to say they are enthusiastic about their choice than Biden backers.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • GadflyGadfly Posts: 908
    First!
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 53,828
    Good morning, everyone.

    Enthusiasm doesn't increase the weight of your vote, though.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 14,140

    Good morning, everyone.

    Enthusiasm doesn't increase the weight of your vote, though.

    It kind of does, in that it increases the probability that you'll cast it.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 27,168

    Good morning, everyone.

    Enthusiasm doesn't increase the weight of your vote, though.

    As Boris knows, having received a lot of distinctly unenthusiastic votes by dint of his opponent. As will Biden.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 16,901
    The "Anyone But Trump" vote will be a powerful motivator of enthusiasm.

    Joe Biden has the advantage of being hard to see as a threat. He isn't a great candidate, but there isn't much that would frighten blue collar Americans.

    Sometimes we miss the obvious when obsessed with what happened last time. I don't think Trump can pull off a repeat of 2016. He is a known factor now. Biden is leading by 8 points in the polls, and that seems to be increasing slowly.

    I tbink we can believe the polls* and that Trump 2020 will compare to 2016 as Corbyn 2019 did to 2017, with abject defeat. Indeed it probably needs to be a landslide to prevent the result being challenged.

    * 3 months for these to change of course...
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 37,084
    edited July 23
    Foxy said:

    The "Anyone But Trump" vote will be a powerful motivator of enthusiasm.

    Joe Biden has the advantage of being hard to see as a threat. He isn't a great candidate, but there isn't much that would frighten blue collar Americans.

    Sometimes we miss the obvious when obsessed with what happened last time. I don't think Trump can pull off a repeat of 2016. He is a known factor now. Biden is leading by 8 points in the polls, and that seems to be increasing slowly.

    I tbink we can believe the polls* and that Trump 2020 will compare to 2016 as Corbyn 2019 did to 2017, with abject defeat. Indeed it probably needs to be a landslide to prevent the result being challenged.

    * 3 months for these to change of course...

    I 100% agree and will go one step further.

    Before the 2019 election I said that it needed to be a landslide for the sake of the country to say to the Labour Party that they had to change. That a continuity Corbyn "one more heave" candidate was not what was needed if they want to be taken seriously.

    The same needs to happen in the United States of America. For the sake of the country Biden needs to win a landslide. The GOP needs to see clearly and unambiguously that Trump was a terrible, catastrophic mistake. The GOP needs a tremendous wake up call like Corbyn19, Foot83, Dukakis88 etc so that next primary season if a Trump-style candidate is running the voters look back at 2020 and say "never again".

    Sometimes an election defeat has to hurt to make you think and realise what needs to be done next. That was 2019 election night for many Labourites. For those still voting GOP I want the result in November to hurt them.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 19,198
    IanB2 said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    Enthusiasm doesn't increase the weight of your vote, though.

    As Boris knows, having received a lot of distinctly unenthusiastic votes by dint of his opponent. As will Biden.
    I fear your are attributing to PM Johnson a great deal more self-awareness than is reasonable to suspect.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 37,084
    IanB2 said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    Enthusiasm doesn't increase the weight of your vote, though.

    As Boris knows, having received a lot of distinctly unenthusiastic votes by dint of his opponent. As will Biden.
    Boris was a two for one package which is what helped win the landslide.

    A lot of people were enthusiastic to defeat his opponent.
    But equally a lot of people were enthusiastically pro-Boris.

    Boris has a lot of fans.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 3,198
    Dura_Ace said:

    What with all this sheer might and world beatingness, only a matter of time before the tide turns back to the Union in Scotland.

    While this is Johnson's usual execrable nonsense; do not underestimate its potency. He is telling the English a story about themselves that they very much like.
    When visiting Scotland, a prime minister should be telling the Scots a story about themselves that they very much like.

    Johnson is addressing the wrong audience in the wrong country.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 8,482

    Foxy said:

    The "Anyone But Trump" vote will be a powerful motivator of enthusiasm.

    Joe Biden has the advantage of being hard to see as a threat. He isn't a great candidate, but there isn't much that would frighten blue collar Americans.

    Sometimes we miss the obvious when obsessed with what happened last time. I don't think Trump can pull off a repeat of 2016. He is a known factor now. Biden is leading by 8 points in the polls, and that seems to be increasing slowly.

    I tbink we can believe the polls* and that Trump 2020 will compare to 2016 as Corbyn 2019 did to 2017, with abject defeat. Indeed it probably needs to be a landslide to prevent the result being challenged.

    * 3 months for these to change of course...

    I 100% agree and will go one step further.

    Before the 2019 election I said that it needed to be a landslide for the sake of the country to say to the Labour Party that they had to change. That a continuity Corbyn "one more heave" candidate was not what was needed if they want to be taken seriously.

    The same needs to happen in the United States of America. For the sake of the country Biden needs to win a landslide. The GOP needs to see clearly and unambiguously that Trump was a terrible, catastrophic mistake. The GOP needs a tremendous wake up call like Corbyn19, Foot83, Dukakis88 etc so that next primary season if a Trump-style candidate is running the voters look back at 2020 and say "never again".

    Sometimes an election defeat has to hurt to make you think and realise what needs to be done next. That was 2019 election night for many Labourites. For those still voting GOP I want the result in November to hurt them.
    I agree with most of that, but what was so bad about Dukakis?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 34,306
    Foxy said:

    The "Anyone But Trump" vote will be a powerful motivator of enthusiasm.

    Joe Biden has the advantage of being hard to see as a threat. He isn't a great candidate, but there isn't much that would frighten blue collar Americans.

    Sometimes we miss the obvious when obsessed with what happened last time. I don't think Trump can pull off a repeat of 2016. He is a known factor now. Biden is leading by 8 points in the polls, and that seems to be increasing slowly.

    I tbink we can believe the polls* and that Trump 2020 will compare to 2016 as Corbyn 2019 did to 2017, with abject defeat. Indeed it probably needs to be a landslide to prevent the result being challenged.

    * 3 months for these to change of course...

    "He isn't a great candidate"

    But he is a known candidate. Biden has been in public life since forever.

    Hopefully the flight to safety will push him well over the line.

  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 27,168

    Foxy said:

    The "Anyone But Trump" vote will be a powerful motivator of enthusiasm.

    Joe Biden has the advantage of being hard to see as a threat. He isn't a great candidate, but there isn't much that would frighten blue collar Americans.

    Sometimes we miss the obvious when obsessed with what happened last time. I don't think Trump can pull off a repeat of 2016. He is a known factor now. Biden is leading by 8 points in the polls, and that seems to be increasing slowly.

    I tbink we can believe the polls* and that Trump 2020 will compare to 2016 as Corbyn 2019 did to 2017, with abject defeat. Indeed it probably needs to be a landslide to prevent the result being challenged.

    * 3 months for these to change of course...

    I 100% agree and will go one step further.

    Before the 2019 election I said that it needed to be a landslide for the sake of the country to say to the Labour Party that they had to change. That a continuity Corbyn "one more heave" candidate was not what was needed if they want to be taken seriously.

    The same needs to happen in the United States of America. For the sake of the country Biden needs to win a landslide. The GOP needs to see clearly and unambiguously that Trump was a terrible, catastrophic mistake. The GOP needs a tremendous wake up call like Corbyn19, Foot83, Dukakis88 etc so that next primary season if a Trump-style candidate is running the voters look back at 2020 and say "never again".

    Sometimes an election defeat has to hurt to make you think and realise what needs to be done next. That was 2019 election night for many Labourites. For those still voting GOP I want the result in November to hurt them.
    So long as they don't follow Miliband15, I guess.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 34,306
    Trump sending a surge of "federal agents" to cities across US.

    What's the betting these paramilitaries are enforcing "law and order" around polling stations come November?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 19,198

    Foxy said:

    The "Anyone But Trump" vote will be a powerful motivator of enthusiasm.

    Joe Biden has the advantage of being hard to see as a threat. He isn't a great candidate, but there isn't much that would frighten blue collar Americans.

    Sometimes we miss the obvious when obsessed with what happened last time. I don't think Trump can pull off a repeat of 2016. He is a known factor now. Biden is leading by 8 points in the polls, and that seems to be increasing slowly.

    I tbink we can believe the polls* and that Trump 2020 will compare to 2016 as Corbyn 2019 did to 2017, with abject defeat. Indeed it probably needs to be a landslide to prevent the result being challenged.

    * 3 months for these to change of course...

    I 100% agree and will go one step further.

    Before the 2019 election I said that it needed to be a landslide for the sake of the country to say to the Labour Party that they had to change. That a continuity Corbyn "one more heave" candidate was not what was needed if they want to be taken seriously.

    The same needs to happen in the United States of America. For the sake of the country Biden needs to win a landslide. The GOP needs to see clearly and unambiguously that Trump was a terrible, catastrophic mistake. The GOP needs a tremendous wake up call like Corbyn19, Foot83, Dukakis88 etc so that next primary season if a Trump-style candidate is running the voters look back at 2020 and say "never again".

    Sometimes an election defeat has to hurt to make you think and realise what needs to be done next. That was 2019 election night for many Labourites. For those still voting GOP I want the result in November to hurt them.
    I agree with most of that, but what was so bad about Dukakis?
    Got his knickers in a terrible twist over Laura N'Order!
  • eekeek Posts: 8,645
    edited July 23
    I know it's off topic and FPT but given that Boris is going to Scotland today it's worth emphasising the actual issue
    Scott_xP said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    While this is Johnson's usual execrable nonsense; do not underestimate its potency. He is telling the English a story about themselves that they very much like.

    Yes

    That's the problem.

    BoZo is trying to quell Scottish nationalism by playing the Little Englander.

    This will not work out to his advantage.

    Boris has become a Bogeyman for leaving the EU, no matter what others think while Boris is in power any referendum is going to result in Scotland voting to leave..
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 37,084

    Foxy said:

    The "Anyone But Trump" vote will be a powerful motivator of enthusiasm.

    Joe Biden has the advantage of being hard to see as a threat. He isn't a great candidate, but there isn't much that would frighten blue collar Americans.

    Sometimes we miss the obvious when obsessed with what happened last time. I don't think Trump can pull off a repeat of 2016. He is a known factor now. Biden is leading by 8 points in the polls, and that seems to be increasing slowly.

    I tbink we can believe the polls* and that Trump 2020 will compare to 2016 as Corbyn 2019 did to 2017, with abject defeat. Indeed it probably needs to be a landslide to prevent the result being challenged.

    * 3 months for these to change of course...

    I 100% agree and will go one step further.

    Before the 2019 election I said that it needed to be a landslide for the sake of the country to say to the Labour Party that they had to change. That a continuity Corbyn "one more heave" candidate was not what was needed if they want to be taken seriously.

    The same needs to happen in the United States of America. For the sake of the country Biden needs to win a landslide. The GOP needs to see clearly and unambiguously that Trump was a terrible, catastrophic mistake. The GOP needs a tremendous wake up call like Corbyn19, Foot83, Dukakis88 etc so that next primary season if a Trump-style candidate is running the voters look back at 2020 and say "never again".

    Sometimes an election defeat has to hurt to make you think and realise what needs to be done next. That was 2019 election night for many Labourites. For those still voting GOP I want the result in November to hurt them.
    I agree with most of that, but what was so bad about Dukakis?
    Its a bit before my time but I thought he was perceived as (for America) very, very weak on crime and defence. EG Willie Horton etc - Future Democrats like Clinton certainly learnt lessons from Dukakis's defeat.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 37,084
    I wonder whether Boris is going to Scotland to win over the Scots, or to be able to say to the English "I tried".

    In 2014 it was said that if the Scots voted Yes then Cameron would have to resign, unless he wants to I personally don't think that's the case for Boris if the Scots vote Yes in 2022. The Scots clearly had issues with the union before Boris.

    Nobody in the EU resigned when we voted to leave.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 3,198
    eek said:

    I know it's off topic and FPT but given that Boris is going to Scotland today it's worth emphasising the actual issue

    Scott_xP said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    While this is Johnson's usual execrable nonsense; do not underestimate its potency. He is telling the English a story about themselves that they very much like.

    Yes

    That's the problem.

    BoZo is trying to quell Scottish nationalism by playing the Little Englander.

    This will not work out to his advantage.

    Boris has become a Bogeyman for leaving the EU, no matter what others think while Boris is in power any referendum is going to result in Scotland voting to leave..
    Shhh... I prefer it when PB is in standard complacency mode.

    Incidentally, Johnson is not considered a Bogeyman for leaving the EU. Not by Scots anyway. He is considered to be a buffoon, a charlatan and a cad. And with good reason: because he is.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 3,198

    I wonder whether Boris is going to Scotland to win over the Scots, or to be able to say to the English "I tried".

    The latter.

    If he is meant to be achieving the former, then he has been receiving horrifically poor advice.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 3,198
    ‘This PM’S year has been a very long time in pol­i­tics‘
    - If there is one word which sums up Mr Johnson’s response to the crisis it is “slow”

    ... Scotland is to be love bombed by Downing Street, with ministers encouraged to follow the PM north to talk up the benefits of the Union, particularly in the current crisis.

    This, Mr Johnson believes, will tackle increasing support for independence in the polls and drive it downwards, just in time for the next Scottish Parliament elections. That is the theory, in any case.

    ... Scotland’s problem with the Conservatives has nothing to do with not understanding them. It is that we understand them only too well.

    (£) The Herald
  • eekeek Posts: 8,645

    I wonder whether Boris is going to Scotland to win over the Scots, or to be able to say to the English "I tried".

    In 2014 it was said that if the Scots voted Yes then Cameron would have to resign, unless he wants to I personally don't think that's the case for Boris if the Scots vote Yes in 2022. The Scots clearly had issues with the union before Boris.

    Nobody in the EU resigned when we voted to leave.

    If Boris quit now he will have taken the UK out the the EU - whether that's a good or bad thing will be one for historians to decide.
    Equally he would have lead the UK through one of the toughest times since WW2 and whatever argument people want to make we at least don't have the Mafia acting as the only social support network (see Southern Italy for what I mean). So the end result may be good or bad
    If Scotland left, Boris won't be remembered for the above he would just be remembered for Scotland leaving.

    So thinking about it I can really see Boris leaving early next year, legacy complete...
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 14,734

    Foxy said:

    The "Anyone But Trump" vote will be a powerful motivator of enthusiasm.

    Joe Biden has the advantage of being hard to see as a threat. He isn't a great candidate, but there isn't much that would frighten blue collar Americans.

    Sometimes we miss the obvious when obsessed with what happened last time. I don't think Trump can pull off a repeat of 2016. He is a known factor now. Biden is leading by 8 points in the polls, and that seems to be increasing slowly.

    I tbink we can believe the polls* and that Trump 2020 will compare to 2016 as Corbyn 2019 did to 2017, with abject defeat. Indeed it probably needs to be a landslide to prevent the result being challenged.

    * 3 months for these to change of course...

    I 100% agree and will go one step further.

    Before the 2019 election I said that it needed to be a landslide for the sake of the country to say to the Labour Party that they had to change. That a continuity Corbyn "one more heave" candidate was not what was needed if they want to be taken seriously.

    The same needs to happen in the United States of America. For the sake of the country Biden needs to win a landslide. The GOP needs to see clearly and unambiguously that Trump was a terrible, catastrophic mistake. The GOP needs a tremendous wake up call like Corbyn19, Foot83, Dukakis88 etc so that next primary season if a Trump-style candidate is running the voters look back at 2020 and say "never again".

    Sometimes an election defeat has to hurt to make you think and realise what needs to be done next. That was 2019 election night for many Labourites. For those still voting GOP I want the result in November to hurt them.
    The interesting question is how will the electorate signal to the Tories that they need to change after the debacle of this administration.
  • Fysics_TeacherFysics_Teacher Posts: 2,809

    Foxy said:

    The "Anyone But Trump" vote will be a powerful motivator of enthusiasm.

    Joe Biden has the advantage of being hard to see as a threat. He isn't a great candidate, but there isn't much that would frighten blue collar Americans.

    Sometimes we miss the obvious when obsessed with what happened last time. I don't think Trump can pull off a repeat of 2016. He is a known factor now. Biden is leading by 8 points in the polls, and that seems to be increasing slowly.

    I tbink we can believe the polls* and that Trump 2020 will compare to 2016 as Corbyn 2019 did to 2017, with abject defeat. Indeed it probably needs to be a landslide to prevent the result being challenged.

    * 3 months for these to change of course...

    I 100% agree and will go one step further.

    Before the 2019 election I said that it needed to be a landslide for the sake of the country to say to the Labour Party that they had to change. That a continuity Corbyn "one more heave" candidate was not what was needed if they want to be taken seriously.

    The same needs to happen in the United States of America. For the sake of the country Biden needs to win a landslide. The GOP needs to see clearly and unambiguously that Trump was a terrible, catastrophic mistake. The GOP needs a tremendous wake up call like Corbyn19, Foot83, Dukakis88 etc so that next primary season if a Trump-style candidate is running the voters look back at 2020 and say "never again".

    Sometimes an election defeat has to hurt to make you think and realise what needs to be done next. That was 2019 election night for many Labourites. For those still voting GOP I want the result in November to hurt them.
    Don’t forget Major1997.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 14,675

    Good morning, everyone.

    Enthusiasm doesn't increase the weight of your vote, though.

    It kind of does, in that it increases the probability that you'll cast it.
    I hate to say it, but maybe there's a streak in humanity that makes dislike more of a motivator than enthusiasm, just as bad news sells media better than good news?
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 905
    Jonathan said:

    Foxy said:

    The "Anyone But Trump" vote will be a powerful motivator of enthusiasm.

    Joe Biden has the advantage of being hard to see as a threat. He isn't a great candidate, but there isn't much that would frighten blue collar Americans.

    Sometimes we miss the obvious when obsessed with what happened last time. I don't think Trump can pull off a repeat of 2016. He is a known factor now. Biden is leading by 8 points in the polls, and that seems to be increasing slowly.

    I tbink we can believe the polls* and that Trump 2020 will compare to 2016 as Corbyn 2019 did to 2017, with abject defeat. Indeed it probably needs to be a landslide to prevent the result being challenged.

    * 3 months for these to change of course...

    I 100% agree and will go one step further.

    Before the 2019 election I said that it needed to be a landslide for the sake of the country to say to the Labour Party that they had to change. That a continuity Corbyn "one more heave" candidate was not what was needed if they want to be taken seriously.

    The same needs to happen in the United States of America. For the sake of the country Biden needs to win a landslide. The GOP needs to see clearly and unambiguously that Trump was a terrible, catastrophic mistake. The GOP needs a tremendous wake up call like Corbyn19, Foot83, Dukakis88 etc so that next primary season if a Trump-style candidate is running the voters look back at 2020 and say "never again".

    Sometimes an election defeat has to hurt to make you think and realise what needs to be done next. That was 2019 election night for many Labourites. For those still voting GOP I want the result in November to hurt them.
    The interesting question is how will the electorate signal to the Tories that they need to change after the debacle of this administration.
    By the comments on here you would think that the tories were miles behind in the polls rather than 6-10 points clear.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 30,100
    edited July 23

    Foxy said:

    The "Anyone But Trump" vote will be a powerful motivator of enthusiasm.

    Joe Biden has the advantage of being hard to see as a threat. He isn't a great candidate, but there isn't much that would frighten blue collar Americans.

    Sometimes we miss the obvious when obsessed with what happened last time. I don't think Trump can pull off a repeat of 2016. He is a known factor now. Biden is leading by 8 points in the polls, and that seems to be increasing slowly.

    I tbink we can believe the polls* and that Trump 2020 will compare to 2016 as Corbyn 2019 did to 2017, with abject defeat. Indeed it probably needs to be a landslide to prevent the result being challenged.

    * 3 months for these to change of course...

    I 100% agree and will go one step further.

    Before the 2019 election I said that it needed to be a landslide for the sake of the country to say to the Labour Party that they had to change. That a continuity Corbyn "one more heave" candidate was not what was needed if they want to be taken seriously.

    The same needs to happen in the United States of America. For the sake of the country Biden needs to win a landslide. The GOP needs to see clearly and unambiguously that Trump was a terrible, catastrophic mistake. The GOP needs a tremendous wake up call like Corbyn19, Foot83, Dukakis88 etc so that next primary season if a Trump-style candidate is running the voters look back at 2020 and say "never again".

    Sometimes an election defeat has to hurt to make you think and realise what needs to be done next. That was 2019 election night for many Labourites. For those still voting GOP I want the result in November to hurt them.
    The only snag with that logic is that Trump won once. When a winner turns into a loser, the instinctive reaction of fanatics is to double down. In our case, see 83, 01, 19 (to a lesser extent). In America 1972 springs to mind.

    I can foresee a Trump on speed candidate in 2024 if he loses, and that’s the one that needs a brutal pounding.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 4,000

    Good morning, everyone.

    Enthusiasm doesn't increase the weight of your vote, though.

    It kind of does, in that it increases the probability that you'll cast it.
    I hate to say it, but maybe there's a streak in humanity that makes dislike more of a motivator than enthusiasm, just as bad news sells media better than good news?
    But you can't vote against someone, it has to be for someone, and if dislike is the only motivation then the vote is unfocussed.

  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 3,198
    eek said:

    I wonder whether Boris is going to Scotland to win over the Scots, or to be able to say to the English "I tried".

    In 2014 it was said that if the Scots voted Yes then Cameron would have to resign, unless he wants to I personally don't think that's the case for Boris if the Scots vote Yes in 2022. The Scots clearly had issues with the union before Boris.

    Nobody in the EU resigned when we voted to leave.

    If Boris quit now he will have taken the UK out the the EU - whether that's a good or bad thing will be one for historians to decide.
    Equally he would have lead the UK through one of the toughest times since WW2 and whatever argument people want to make we at least don't have the Mafia acting as the only social support network (see Southern Italy for what I mean). So the end result may be good or bad
    If Scotland left, Boris won't be remembered for the above he would just be remembered for Scotland leaving.

    So thinking about it I can really see Boris leaving early next year, legacy complete...
    You are forgetting his ego: he seriously thinks of himself as the new Churchill.

    Well, as the man himself admitted: “There is a forgotten, nay almost forbidden word, which means more to me than any other. That word is England.”

    Johnson seems to have adopted Churchill’s supreme word as his guiding star. He clearly cares for little else.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 4,542

  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 5,106
    Jonathan said:

    Foxy said:

    The "Anyone But Trump" vote will be a powerful motivator of enthusiasm.

    Joe Biden has the advantage of being hard to see as a threat. He isn't a great candidate, but there isn't much that would frighten blue collar Americans.

    Sometimes we miss the obvious when obsessed with what happened last time. I don't think Trump can pull off a repeat of 2016. He is a known factor now. Biden is leading by 8 points in the polls, and that seems to be increasing slowly.

    I tbink we can believe the polls* and that Trump 2020 will compare to 2016 as Corbyn 2019 did to 2017, with abject defeat. Indeed it probably needs to be a landslide to prevent the result being challenged.

    * 3 months for these to change of course...

    I 100% agree and will go one step further.

    Before the 2019 election I said that it needed to be a landslide for the sake of the country to say to the Labour Party that they had to change. That a continuity Corbyn "one more heave" candidate was not what was needed if they want to be taken seriously.

    The same needs to happen in the United States of America. For the sake of the country Biden needs to win a landslide. The GOP needs to see clearly and unambiguously that Trump was a terrible, catastrophic mistake. The GOP needs a tremendous wake up call like Corbyn19, Foot83, Dukakis88 etc so that next primary season if a Trump-style candidate is running the voters look back at 2020 and say "never again".

    Sometimes an election defeat has to hurt to make you think and realise what needs to be done next. That was 2019 election night for many Labourites. For those still voting GOP I want the result in November to hurt them.
    The interesting question is how will the electorate signal to the Tories that they need to change after the debacle of this administration.
    The trouble is so long as this administration can throw populist scraps for its new and established core everything is hunky dory despite the reality. The EU, immigrants, long sentencing, with the ultimate offering being a referendum on capital punishment for genuine boogeymen groups. Terrorists, child killers, traitors. It'll work too.

    And Boris defenders will say, but he doesn't believe in such things. I would remind them there was a time he didn't believe in Brexit.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 3,198

    Good morning, everyone.

    Enthusiasm doesn't increase the weight of your vote, though.

    It kind of does, in that it increases the probability that you'll cast it.
    I hate to say it, but maybe there's a streak in humanity that makes dislike more of a motivator than enthusiasm, just as bad news sells media better than good news?
    Very astute, especially on the day the most disliked PM since Thatcher visits the Jock colony.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 4,542
    BoZo really doesn't want to be the PM that "lost" Scotland, but he is working hard to make it happen.
  • eekeek Posts: 8,645

    eek said:

    I wonder whether Boris is going to Scotland to win over the Scots, or to be able to say to the English "I tried".

    In 2014 it was said that if the Scots voted Yes then Cameron would have to resign, unless he wants to I personally don't think that's the case for Boris if the Scots vote Yes in 2022. The Scots clearly had issues with the union before Boris.

    Nobody in the EU resigned when we voted to leave.

    If Boris quit now he will have taken the UK out the the EU - whether that's a good or bad thing will be one for historians to decide.
    Equally he would have lead the UK through one of the toughest times since WW2 and whatever argument people want to make we at least don't have the Mafia acting as the only social support network (see Southern Italy for what I mean). So the end result may be good or bad
    If Scotland left, Boris won't be remembered for the above he would just be remembered for Scotland leaving.

    So thinking about it I can really see Boris leaving early next year, legacy complete...
    You are forgetting his ego: he seriously thinks of himself as the new Churchill.

    Well, as the man himself admitted: “There is a forgotten, nay almost forbidden word, which means more to me than any other. That word is England.”

    Johnson seems to have adopted Churchill’s supreme word as his guiding star. He clearly cares for little else.
    I don't think I'm forgetting his ego which is why I'm going for early 2021 rather than 2020 - we formally leave the EU, he gets to say job done and goes back to making money.

    Remember he still isn't 100% due to Covid so has an excuse to escape early that wasn't there earlier.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 37,084

    Foxy said:

    The "Anyone But Trump" vote will be a powerful motivator of enthusiasm.

    Joe Biden has the advantage of being hard to see as a threat. He isn't a great candidate, but there isn't much that would frighten blue collar Americans.

    Sometimes we miss the obvious when obsessed with what happened last time. I don't think Trump can pull off a repeat of 2016. He is a known factor now. Biden is leading by 8 points in the polls, and that seems to be increasing slowly.

    I tbink we can believe the polls* and that Trump 2020 will compare to 2016 as Corbyn 2019 did to 2017, with abject defeat. Indeed it probably needs to be a landslide to prevent the result being challenged.

    * 3 months for these to change of course...

    I 100% agree and will go one step further.

    Before the 2019 election I said that it needed to be a landslide for the sake of the country to say to the Labour Party that they had to change. That a continuity Corbyn "one more heave" candidate was not what was needed if they want to be taken seriously.

    The same needs to happen in the United States of America. For the sake of the country Biden needs to win a landslide. The GOP needs to see clearly and unambiguously that Trump was a terrible, catastrophic mistake. The GOP needs a tremendous wake up call like Corbyn19, Foot83, Dukakis88 etc so that next primary season if a Trump-style candidate is running the voters look back at 2020 and say "never again".

    Sometimes an election defeat has to hurt to make you think and realise what needs to be done next. That was 2019 election night for many Labourites. For those still voting GOP I want the result in November to hurt them.
    Don’t forget Major1997.
    I didn't include Major in my list because I'm not entirely convinced that lessons were learnt in the 1997 defeat.

    Lessons learnt:
    Foot83: Don't be so extreme far left, expel Militant Tendency
    Dukakis88: Take Laura Norder seriously.
    Corbyn19: Deal with the antisemites . . . waiting to see if any more lessons are learnt.

    But for Major the response by the Tories seemed to be basically "oh well, we had a good run for 18 years and Blair is very popular, lets just wait until Blair isn't as popular and then we can naturally return to government". If there was much in the way of introspection and lesson learning in the Hague years I'm not sure what it was - I never saw it! It took until Cameron came around for that to seriously happen.
  • Fysics_TeacherFysics_Teacher Posts: 2,809

    Good morning, everyone.

    Enthusiasm doesn't increase the weight of your vote, though.

    It kind of does, in that it increases the probability that you'll cast it.
    I hate to say it, but maybe there's a streak in humanity that makes dislike more of a motivator than enthusiasm, just as bad news sells media better than good news?
    I regard the main purpose of democracy as the ability to get rid of a poor government without anyone getting shot.
    That’s why I’m so pleased to see Sir Kier in charge of Labour; for that to happen the opposition has to be an at least plausible government.

    I think @Philip_Thompson said yesterday that while he didn’t vote for him, he wasn’t frightened by the prospect of Ed being PM. We are now getting back to that position and if Sir Kier can use the EHRC report to get rid of a few of Jeremy’s fellow travellers, so much the better.

    On topic, Hilary did frighten a lot of Americans who Joe does not.
  • eekeek Posts: 8,645
    geoffw said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    Enthusiasm doesn't increase the weight of your vote, though.

    It kind of does, in that it increases the probability that you'll cast it.
    I hate to say it, but maybe there's a streak in humanity that makes dislike more of a motivator than enthusiasm, just as bad news sells media better than good news?
    But you can't vote against someone, it has to be for someone, and if dislike is the only motivation then the vote is unfocussed.

    As I've commented on here before most people vote for the least worst candidate
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 5,106

    Jonathan said:

    Foxy said:

    The "Anyone But Trump" vote will be a powerful motivator of enthusiasm.

    Joe Biden has the advantage of being hard to see as a threat. He isn't a great candidate, but there isn't much that would frighten blue collar Americans.

    Sometimes we miss the obvious when obsessed with what happened last time. I don't think Trump can pull off a repeat of 2016. He is a known factor now. Biden is leading by 8 points in the polls, and that seems to be increasing slowly.

    I tbink we can believe the polls* and that Trump 2020 will compare to 2016 as Corbyn 2019 did to 2017, with abject defeat. Indeed it probably needs to be a landslide to prevent the result being challenged.

    * 3 months for these to change of course...

    I 100% agree and will go one step further.

    Before the 2019 election I said that it needed to be a landslide for the sake of the country to say to the Labour Party that they had to change. That a continuity Corbyn "one more heave" candidate was not what was needed if they want to be taken seriously.

    The same needs to happen in the United States of America. For the sake of the country Biden needs to win a landslide. The GOP needs to see clearly and unambiguously that Trump was a terrible, catastrophic mistake. The GOP needs a tremendous wake up call like Corbyn19, Foot83, Dukakis88 etc so that next primary season if a Trump-style candidate is running the voters look back at 2020 and say "never again".

    Sometimes an election defeat has to hurt to make you think and realise what needs to be done next. That was 2019 election night for many Labourites. For those still voting GOP I want the result in November to hurt them.
    The interesting question is how will the electorate signal to the Tories that they need to change after the debacle of this administration.
    By the comments on here you would think that the tories were miles behind in the polls rather than 6-10 points clear.
    The Tories remain popular, that doesn't necessarily mean by most other metrics they are succeeding.

    You would say (I probably wouldn't, certainly in 2001) that the Labour government were failing in 2001 and 2005, but they still won.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 55,331
    edited July 23
    I suppose it's not technically impossible to do both (as it's matter of contingency planning), but am I reading this right that a select committee is saying the government simultaneously rushed its economic response to covid and that it waited too long?

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-53484998
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 4,000
    eek said:

    geoffw said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    Enthusiasm doesn't increase the weight of your vote, though.

    It kind of does, in that it increases the probability that you'll cast it.
    I hate to say it, but maybe there's a streak in humanity that makes dislike more of a motivator than enthusiasm, just as bad news sells media better than good news?
    But you can't vote against someone, it has to be for someone, and if dislike is the only motivation then the vote is unfocussed.

    As I've commented on here before most people vote for the least worst candidate
    What's the difference between the least worst and the best on offer?

  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 476
    From a couple of threads back, but I meant to reply (and don't think anyone else did) and then got caught up in work things:
    isam said:
    I don't know, but assuming they are true data presented fairly, all that shows is that with the massive efforts to mitigate COVID-19 we've managed to limit deaths to a level similar to the worst observed over forty years for flu and the like (Sweden has had some measures and massive changes in transit, e.g. working at home, which probably didn't happen in the earlier events as it wasn't so technologically possible, although no formal lock down like other countries).
  • Fysics_TeacherFysics_Teacher Posts: 2,809

    Foxy said:

    The "Anyone But Trump" vote will be a powerful motivator of enthusiasm.

    Joe Biden has the advantage of being hard to see as a threat. He isn't a great candidate, but there isn't much that would frighten blue collar Americans.

    Sometimes we miss the obvious when obsessed with what happened last time. I don't think Trump can pull off a repeat of 2016. He is a known factor now. Biden is leading by 8 points in the polls, and that seems to be increasing slowly.

    I tbink we can believe the polls* and that Trump 2020 will compare to 2016 as Corbyn 2019 did to 2017, with abject defeat. Indeed it probably needs to be a landslide to prevent the result being challenged.

    * 3 months for these to change of course...

    I 100% agree and will go one step further.

    Before the 2019 election I said that it needed to be a landslide for the sake of the country to say to the Labour Party that they had to change. That a continuity Corbyn "one more heave" candidate was not what was needed if they want to be taken seriously.

    The same needs to happen in the United States of America. For the sake of the country Biden needs to win a landslide. The GOP needs to see clearly and unambiguously that Trump was a terrible, catastrophic mistake. The GOP needs a tremendous wake up call like Corbyn19, Foot83, Dukakis88 etc so that next primary season if a Trump-style candidate is running the voters look back at 2020 and say "never again".

    Sometimes an election defeat has to hurt to make you think and realise what needs to be done next. That was 2019 election night for many Labourites. For those still voting GOP I want the result in November to hurt them.
    Don’t forget Major1997.
    I didn't include Major in my list because I'm not entirely convinced that lessons were learnt in the 1997 defeat.

    Lessons learnt:
    Foot83: Don't be so extreme far left, expel Militant Tendency
    Dukakis88: Take Laura Norder seriously.
    Corbyn19: Deal with the antisemites . . . waiting to see if any more lessons are learnt.

    But for Major the response by the Tories seemed to be basically "oh well, we had a good run for 18 years and Blair is very popular, lets just wait until Blair isn't as popular and then we can naturally return to government". If there was much in the way of introspection and lesson learning in the Hague years I'm not sure what it was - I never saw it! It took until Cameron came around for that to seriously happen.
    Fair point. Given who the Tories elected in 2001 I don’t think the party got it then either, but luckily for them the PCP were able to get rid of someone manifestly unfit for the job.

    I wonder what would have happened if the PLP had had the same power in 2016?
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 3,198

    Jonathan said:

    Foxy said:

    The "Anyone But Trump" vote will be a powerful motivator of enthusiasm.

    Joe Biden has the advantage of being hard to see as a threat. He isn't a great candidate, but there isn't much that would frighten blue collar Americans.

    Sometimes we miss the obvious when obsessed with what happened last time. I don't think Trump can pull off a repeat of 2016. He is a known factor now. Biden is leading by 8 points in the polls, and that seems to be increasing slowly.

    I tbink we can believe the polls* and that Trump 2020 will compare to 2016 as Corbyn 2019 did to 2017, with abject defeat. Indeed it probably needs to be a landslide to prevent the result being challenged.

    * 3 months for these to change of course...

    I 100% agree and will go one step further.

    Before the 2019 election I said that it needed to be a landslide for the sake of the country to say to the Labour Party that they had to change. That a continuity Corbyn "one more heave" candidate was not what was needed if they want to be taken seriously.

    The same needs to happen in the United States of America. For the sake of the country Biden needs to win a landslide. The GOP needs to see clearly and unambiguously that Trump was a terrible, catastrophic mistake. The GOP needs a tremendous wake up call like Corbyn19, Foot83, Dukakis88 etc so that next primary season if a Trump-style candidate is running the voters look back at 2020 and say "never again".

    Sometimes an election defeat has to hurt to make you think and realise what needs to be done next. That was 2019 election night for many Labourites. For those still voting GOP I want the result in November to hurt them.
    The interesting question is how will the electorate signal to the Tories that they need to change after the debacle of this administration.
    By the comments on here you would think that the tories were miles behind in the polls rather than 6-10 points clear.
    But the Tories are miles behind in the polls. A massive 32 points behind in this month’s Sunday Times poll.

    Oh! You meant in England?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 37,084
    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    The "Anyone But Trump" vote will be a powerful motivator of enthusiasm.

    Joe Biden has the advantage of being hard to see as a threat. He isn't a great candidate, but there isn't much that would frighten blue collar Americans.

    Sometimes we miss the obvious when obsessed with what happened last time. I don't think Trump can pull off a repeat of 2016. He is a known factor now. Biden is leading by 8 points in the polls, and that seems to be increasing slowly.

    I tbink we can believe the polls* and that Trump 2020 will compare to 2016 as Corbyn 2019 did to 2017, with abject defeat. Indeed it probably needs to be a landslide to prevent the result being challenged.

    * 3 months for these to change of course...

    I 100% agree and will go one step further.

    Before the 2019 election I said that it needed to be a landslide for the sake of the country to say to the Labour Party that they had to change. That a continuity Corbyn "one more heave" candidate was not what was needed if they want to be taken seriously.

    The same needs to happen in the United States of America. For the sake of the country Biden needs to win a landslide. The GOP needs to see clearly and unambiguously that Trump was a terrible, catastrophic mistake. The GOP needs a tremendous wake up call like Corbyn19, Foot83, Dukakis88 etc so that next primary season if a Trump-style candidate is running the voters look back at 2020 and say "never again".

    Sometimes an election defeat has to hurt to make you think and realise what needs to be done next. That was 2019 election night for many Labourites. For those still voting GOP I want the result in November to hurt them.
    The only snag with that logic is that Trump won once. When a winner turns into a loser, the instinctive reaction of fanatics is to double down. In our case, see 83, 01, 19 (to a lesser extent). In America 1972 springs to mind.

    I can foresee a Trump on speed candidate in 2024 if he loses, and that’s the one that needs a brutal pounding.
    If he narrowly loses then I can see a doubling down yes. Though how you double down on Trump is beyond me. In all the example you made the party either narrowly lost, or didn't lose by a greater extent compared to the previous time. I can't think of a doubling down when the prior defeat was a landslide swing away from the party.

    That is why I don't want a narrow Trump victory, I would like a landslide of epic proportions. Getting rid of Trump even if it is by 1 electoral vote is good - getting rid of Trumpism is even better.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 55,331
    Scott_xP said:
    What a devastating tweet - indy supporter says existence of PM proves why indy is needed.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 5,106
    Scott_xP said:
    I don't think so. Brexit will define Johnson. The history books will tell future generations that the Union fell at the time when one of Johnson's successors was Prime Minister. Johnson will be the footnote explaining that he set the stone rolling, which will be grossly unfair for his successor.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 55,331
    Scott_xP said:


    Good cartoon in fairness.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 6,454
    edited July 23
    There's nothing wrong with Scottish independence as an idea, if you believe in democracy. If that's what people in Scotland want, fine. If they don't, that's also fine. Why this obsession with trying to blame people for what might happen in the future as far as this subject is concerned? "Scottish independence would be Boris Johnson's fault" is the sort of silly statement I'm talking about.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 4,542
    FFS, BoZo really did call the Union a "marriage" in his column today.

    So, it's over then...
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 3,198
    geoffw said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    Enthusiasm doesn't increase the weight of your vote, though.

    It kind of does, in that it increases the probability that you'll cast it.
    I hate to say it, but maybe there's a streak in humanity that makes dislike more of a motivator than enthusiasm, just as bad news sells media better than good news?
    But you can't vote against someone, it has to be for someone, and if dislike is the only motivation then the vote is unfocussed.

    Not in a Yes/No referendum.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 5,106

    Foxy said:

    The "Anyone But Trump" vote will be a powerful motivator of enthusiasm.

    Joe Biden has the advantage of being hard to see as a threat. He isn't a great candidate, but there isn't much that would frighten blue collar Americans.

    Sometimes we miss the obvious when obsessed with what happened last time. I don't think Trump can pull off a repeat of 2016. He is a known factor now. Biden is leading by 8 points in the polls, and that seems to be increasing slowly.

    I tbink we can believe the polls* and that Trump 2020 will compare to 2016 as Corbyn 2019 did to 2017, with abject defeat. Indeed it probably needs to be a landslide to prevent the result being challenged.

    * 3 months for these to change of course...

    I 100% agree and will go one step further.

    Before the 2019 election I said that it needed to be a landslide for the sake of the country to say to the Labour Party that they had to change. That a continuity Corbyn "one more heave" candidate was not what was needed if they want to be taken seriously.

    The same needs to happen in the United States of America. For the sake of the country Biden needs to win a landslide. The GOP needs to see clearly and unambiguously that Trump was a terrible, catastrophic mistake. The GOP needs a tremendous wake up call like Corbyn19, Foot83, Dukakis88 etc so that next primary season if a Trump-style candidate is running the voters look back at 2020 and say "never again".

    Sometimes an election defeat has to hurt to make you think and realise what needs to be done next. That was 2019 election night for many Labourites. For those still voting GOP I want the result in November to hurt them.
    Don’t forget Major1997.
    I didn't include Major in my list because I'm not entirely convinced that lessons were learnt in the 1997 defeat.

    Lessons learnt:
    Foot83: Don't be so extreme far left, expel Militant Tendency
    Dukakis88: Take Laura Norder seriously.
    Corbyn19: Deal with the antisemites . . . waiting to see if any more lessons are learnt.

    But for Major the response by the Tories seemed to be basically "oh well, we had a good run for 18 years and Blair is very popular, lets just wait until Blair isn't as popular and then we can naturally return to government". If there was much in the way of introspection and lesson learning in the Hague years I'm not sure what it was - I never saw it! It took until Cameron came around for that to seriously happen.
    Now that worries me.

    Cameron's solution was to morph into Blair. We don't want any Labour leader morphing into Johnson!
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 4,542
    kle4 said:

    What a devastating tweet - indy supporter says existence of PM proves why indy is needed.

    It's the same argument as Brexit

    Brexiteer says existence of Brussels proves why Brexit is needed.

    It's unmitigated shite whichever petty nationalist is spouting it, but the point is it works. In both cases.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 4,542
    kle4 said:

    Good cartoon in fairness.

    Nippy retweeted it herself
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 55,331
    edited July 23
    Scott_xP said:

    kle4 said:

    What a devastating tweet - indy supporter says existence of PM proves why indy is needed.

    It's the same argument as Brexit

    Brexiteer says existence of Brussels proves why Brexit is needed.

    It's unmitigated shite whichever petty nationalist is spouting it, but the point is it works. In both cases.
    Fair point. Not necessarily the strength of the point, but that very basic points like that can be very effective. I had thought you were impressed by her comment.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 37,084

    Foxy said:

    The "Anyone But Trump" vote will be a powerful motivator of enthusiasm.

    Joe Biden has the advantage of being hard to see as a threat. He isn't a great candidate, but there isn't much that would frighten blue collar Americans.

    Sometimes we miss the obvious when obsessed with what happened last time. I don't think Trump can pull off a repeat of 2016. He is a known factor now. Biden is leading by 8 points in the polls, and that seems to be increasing slowly.

    I tbink we can believe the polls* and that Trump 2020 will compare to 2016 as Corbyn 2019 did to 2017, with abject defeat. Indeed it probably needs to be a landslide to prevent the result being challenged.

    * 3 months for these to change of course...

    I 100% agree and will go one step further.

    Before the 2019 election I said that it needed to be a landslide for the sake of the country to say to the Labour Party that they had to change. That a continuity Corbyn "one more heave" candidate was not what was needed if they want to be taken seriously.

    The same needs to happen in the United States of America. For the sake of the country Biden needs to win a landslide. The GOP needs to see clearly and unambiguously that Trump was a terrible, catastrophic mistake. The GOP needs a tremendous wake up call like Corbyn19, Foot83, Dukakis88 etc so that next primary season if a Trump-style candidate is running the voters look back at 2020 and say "never again".

    Sometimes an election defeat has to hurt to make you think and realise what needs to be done next. That was 2019 election night for many Labourites. For those still voting GOP I want the result in November to hurt them.
    Don’t forget Major1997.
    I didn't include Major in my list because I'm not entirely convinced that lessons were learnt in the 1997 defeat.

    Lessons learnt:
    Foot83: Don't be so extreme far left, expel Militant Tendency
    Dukakis88: Take Laura Norder seriously.
    Corbyn19: Deal with the antisemites . . . waiting to see if any more lessons are learnt.

    But for Major the response by the Tories seemed to be basically "oh well, we had a good run for 18 years and Blair is very popular, lets just wait until Blair isn't as popular and then we can naturally return to government". If there was much in the way of introspection and lesson learning in the Hague years I'm not sure what it was - I never saw it! It took until Cameron came around for that to seriously happen.
    Now that worries me.

    Cameron's solution was to morph into Blair. We don't want any Labour leader morphing into Johnson!
    The Conservatives succeeded when they stopped hating Blair and instead decided to think what were his best bits that suited them that they could adopt.

    Maybe Labour needs to stop hating Johnson and think what about him they can actually like and adopt? 😜
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 37,084
    Scott_xP said:

    kle4 said:

    What a devastating tweet - indy supporter says existence of PM proves why indy is needed.

    It's the same argument as Brexit

    Brexiteer says existence of Brussels proves why Brexit is needed.

    It's unmitigated shite whichever petty nationalist is spouting it, but the point is it works. In both cases.
    Nationalism is neither petty nor nonsense.

    Nationalism is a very good thing, but like all good things is bad if taken to extremes.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 4,542
    Yeah, this will totally kill the Russian interference story...

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 55,331

    Foxy said:

    The "Anyone But Trump" vote will be a powerful motivator of enthusiasm.

    Joe Biden has the advantage of being hard to see as a threat. He isn't a great candidate, but there isn't much that would frighten blue collar Americans.

    Sometimes we miss the obvious when obsessed with what happened last time. I don't think Trump can pull off a repeat of 2016. He is a known factor now. Biden is leading by 8 points in the polls, and that seems to be increasing slowly.

    I tbink we can believe the polls* and that Trump 2020 will compare to 2016 as Corbyn 2019 did to 2017, with abject defeat. Indeed it probably needs to be a landslide to prevent the result being challenged.

    * 3 months for these to change of course...

    I 100% agree and will go one step further.

    Before the 2019 election I said that it needed to be a landslide for the sake of the country to say to the Labour Party that they had to change. That a continuity Corbyn "one more heave" candidate was not what was needed if they want to be taken seriously.

    The same needs to happen in the United States of America. For the sake of the country Biden needs to win a landslide. The GOP needs to see clearly and unambiguously that Trump was a terrible, catastrophic mistake. The GOP needs a tremendous wake up call like Corbyn19, Foot83, Dukakis88 etc so that next primary season if a Trump-style candidate is running the voters look back at 2020 and say "never again".

    Sometimes an election defeat has to hurt to make you think and realise what needs to be done next. That was 2019 election night for many Labourites. For those still voting GOP I want the result in November to hurt them.
    Don’t forget Major1997.
    I didn't include Major in my list because I'm not entirely convinced that lessons were learnt in the 1997 defeat.

    Lessons learnt:
    Foot83: Don't be so extreme far left, expel Militant Tendency
    Dukakis88: Take Laura Norder seriously.
    Corbyn19: Deal with the antisemites . . . waiting to see if any more lessons are learnt.

    But for Major the response by the Tories seemed to be basically "oh well, we had a good run for 18 years and Blair is very popular, lets just wait until Blair isn't as popular and then we can naturally return to government". If there was much in the way of introspection and lesson learning in the Hague years I'm not sure what it was - I never saw it! It took until Cameron came around for that to seriously happen.
    Now that worries me.

    Cameron's solution was to morph into Blair. We don't want any Labour leader morphing into Johnson!
    You dont think Starmer might put on a few pounds, mess up his hair and...no, he will never mess up his hair, it's true.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 4,542
    kle4 said:

    I had thought you were impressed by her comment.

    I agree with her that BoZo's visit will improve her poll ratings at his expense.

    It's tragic, but that's what happens when the Petty Nationalists are in power (in England and Scotland)
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 2,252
    edited July 23
    geoffw said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    Enthusiasm doesn't increase the weight of your vote, though.

    It kind of does, in that it increases the probability that you'll cast it.
    I hate to say it, but maybe there's a streak in humanity that makes dislike more of a motivator than enthusiasm, just as bad news sells media better than good news?
    But you can't vote against someone, it has to be for someone, and if dislike is the only motivation then the vote is unfocussed.

    With the risk of reopening the FPTP and R debate from last night, that's a key charm of FPTP to the Big Two. If you have a system that pushes a duopoly, then negative campaigning can and does work. You don't have to be attractive; just convince the electorate that your opponent is repulsive (or more repulsive than you).
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 16,901
    Scott_xP said:

    FFS, BoZo really did call the Union a "marriage" in his column today.

    So, it's over then...

    Well we all know how BoZo regards a marriage...
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 5,106

    Foxy said:

    The "Anyone But Trump" vote will be a powerful motivator of enthusiasm.

    Joe Biden has the advantage of being hard to see as a threat. He isn't a great candidate, but there isn't much that would frighten blue collar Americans.

    Sometimes we miss the obvious when obsessed with what happened last time. I don't think Trump can pull off a repeat of 2016. He is a known factor now. Biden is leading by 8 points in the polls, and that seems to be increasing slowly.

    I tbink we can believe the polls* and that Trump 2020 will compare to 2016 as Corbyn 2019 did to 2017, with abject defeat. Indeed it probably needs to be a landslide to prevent the result being challenged.

    * 3 months for these to change of course...

    I 100% agree and will go one step further.

    Before the 2019 election I said that it needed to be a landslide for the sake of the country to say to the Labour Party that they had to change. That a continuity Corbyn "one more heave" candidate was not what was needed if they want to be taken seriously.

    The same needs to happen in the United States of America. For the sake of the country Biden needs to win a landslide. The GOP needs to see clearly and unambiguously that Trump was a terrible, catastrophic mistake. The GOP needs a tremendous wake up call like Corbyn19, Foot83, Dukakis88 etc so that next primary season if a Trump-style candidate is running the voters look back at 2020 and say "never again".

    Sometimes an election defeat has to hurt to make you think and realise what needs to be done next. That was 2019 election night for many Labourites. For those still voting GOP I want the result in November to hurt them.
    Don’t forget Major1997.
    I didn't include Major in my list because I'm not entirely convinced that lessons were learnt in the 1997 defeat.

    Lessons learnt:
    Foot83: Don't be so extreme far left, expel Militant Tendency
    Dukakis88: Take Laura Norder seriously.
    Corbyn19: Deal with the antisemites . . . waiting to see if any more lessons are learnt.

    But for Major the response by the Tories seemed to be basically "oh well, we had a good run for 18 years and Blair is very popular, lets just wait until Blair isn't as popular and then we can naturally return to government". If there was much in the way of introspection and lesson learning in the Hague years I'm not sure what it was - I never saw it! It took until Cameron came around for that to seriously happen.
    Now that worries me.

    Cameron's solution was to morph into Blair. We don't want any Labour leader morphing into Johnson!
    The Conservatives succeeded when they stopped hating Blair and instead decided to think what were his best bits that suited them that they could adopt.

    Maybe Labour needs to stop hating Johnson and think what about him they can actually like and adopt? 😜
    Populist dog whistles?
  • eekeek Posts: 8,645
    kle4 said:

    Scott_xP said:
    What a devastating tweet - indy supporter says existence of PM proves why indy is needed.
    It makes the point she wishes to make and scores another minor hit.

    And Sturgeon really only needs minor hits as it's a long term game where every point scored may slightly sway another vote...
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 3,749
    kle4 said:

    Foxy said:

    The "Anyone But Trump" vote will be a powerful motivator of enthusiasm.

    Joe Biden has the advantage of being hard to see as a threat. He isn't a great candidate, but there isn't much that would frighten blue collar Americans.

    Sometimes we miss the obvious when obsessed with what happened last time. I don't think Trump can pull off a repeat of 2016. He is a known factor now. Biden is leading by 8 points in the polls, and that seems to be increasing slowly.

    I tbink we can believe the polls* and that Trump 2020 will compare to 2016 as Corbyn 2019 did to 2017, with abject defeat. Indeed it probably needs to be a landslide to prevent the result being challenged.

    * 3 months for these to change of course...

    I 100% agree and will go one step further.

    Before the 2019 election I said that it needed to be a landslide for the sake of the country to say to the Labour Party that they had to change. That a continuity Corbyn "one more heave" candidate was not what was needed if they want to be taken seriously.

    The same needs to happen in the United States of America. For the sake of the country Biden needs to win a landslide. The GOP needs to see clearly and unambiguously that Trump was a terrible, catastrophic mistake. The GOP needs a tremendous wake up call like Corbyn19, Foot83, Dukakis88 etc so that next primary season if a Trump-style candidate is running the voters look back at 2020 and say "never again".

    Sometimes an election defeat has to hurt to make you think and realise what needs to be done next. That was 2019 election night for many Labourites. For those still voting GOP I want the result in November to hurt them.
    Don’t forget Major1997.
    I didn't include Major in my list because I'm not entirely convinced that lessons were learnt in the 1997 defeat.

    Lessons learnt:
    Foot83: Don't be so extreme far left, expel Militant Tendency
    Dukakis88: Take Laura Norder seriously.
    Corbyn19: Deal with the antisemites . . . waiting to see if any more lessons are learnt.

    But for Major the response by the Tories seemed to be basically "oh well, we had a good run for 18 years and Blair is very popular, lets just wait until Blair isn't as popular and then we can naturally return to government". If there was much in the way of introspection and lesson learning in the Hague years I'm not sure what it was - I never saw it! It took until Cameron came around for that to seriously happen.
    Now that worries me.

    Cameron's solution was to morph into Blair. We don't want any Labour leader morphing into Johnson!
    You dont think Starmer might put on a few pounds, mess up his hair and...no, he will never mess up his hair, it's true.
    You have it the wrong way round. It is not that SKS needs to emulate Boris but that just as Cameron won by following Blair, so Boris won by morphing into Jeremy Corbyn.

    Boris won by lifting all the popular parts of Corbyn's 2017 platform (including shooting rather than hunting foxes!).
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 21,105
    Scott_xP said:

    FFS, BoZo really did call the Union a "marriage" in his column today.

    So, it's over then...

    It's the children (precise number tbc) that I worry about.
  • Fysics_TeacherFysics_Teacher Posts: 2,809

    Jonathan said:

    Foxy said:

    The "Anyone But Trump" vote will be a powerful motivator of enthusiasm.

    Joe Biden has the advantage of being hard to see as a threat. He isn't a great candidate, but there isn't much that would frighten blue collar Americans.

    Sometimes we miss the obvious when obsessed with what happened last time. I don't think Trump can pull off a repeat of 2016. He is a known factor now. Biden is leading by 8 points in the polls, and that seems to be increasing slowly.

    I tbink we can believe the polls* and that Trump 2020 will compare to 2016 as Corbyn 2019 did to 2017, with abject defeat. Indeed it probably needs to be a landslide to prevent the result being challenged.

    * 3 months for these to change of course...

    I 100% agree and will go one step further.

    Before the 2019 election I said that it needed to be a landslide for the sake of the country to say to the Labour Party that they had to change. That a continuity Corbyn "one more heave" candidate was not what was needed if they want to be taken seriously.

    The same needs to happen in the United States of America. For the sake of the country Biden needs to win a landslide. The GOP needs to see clearly and unambiguously that Trump was a terrible, catastrophic mistake. The GOP needs a tremendous wake up call like Corbyn19, Foot83, Dukakis88 etc so that next primary season if a Trump-style candidate is running the voters look back at 2020 and say "never again".

    Sometimes an election defeat has to hurt to make you think and realise what needs to be done next. That was 2019 election night for many Labourites. For those still voting GOP I want the result in November to hurt them.
    The interesting question is how will the electorate signal to the Tories that they need to change after the debacle of this administration.
    By the comments on here you would think that the tories were miles behind in the polls rather than 6-10 points clear.
    But the Tories are miles behind in the polls. A massive 32 points behind in this month’s Sunday Times poll.

    Oh! You meant in England?
    No, Storbritannien.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 37,084

    kle4 said:

    Foxy said:

    The "Anyone But Trump" vote will be a powerful motivator of enthusiasm.

    Joe Biden has the advantage of being hard to see as a threat. He isn't a great candidate, but there isn't much that would frighten blue collar Americans.

    Sometimes we miss the obvious when obsessed with what happened last time. I don't think Trump can pull off a repeat of 2016. He is a known factor now. Biden is leading by 8 points in the polls, and that seems to be increasing slowly.

    I tbink we can believe the polls* and that Trump 2020 will compare to 2016 as Corbyn 2019 did to 2017, with abject defeat. Indeed it probably needs to be a landslide to prevent the result being challenged.

    * 3 months for these to change of course...

    I 100% agree and will go one step further.

    Before the 2019 election I said that it needed to be a landslide for the sake of the country to say to the Labour Party that they had to change. That a continuity Corbyn "one more heave" candidate was not what was needed if they want to be taken seriously.

    The same needs to happen in the United States of America. For the sake of the country Biden needs to win a landslide. The GOP needs to see clearly and unambiguously that Trump was a terrible, catastrophic mistake. The GOP needs a tremendous wake up call like Corbyn19, Foot83, Dukakis88 etc so that next primary season if a Trump-style candidate is running the voters look back at 2020 and say "never again".

    Sometimes an election defeat has to hurt to make you think and realise what needs to be done next. That was 2019 election night for many Labourites. For those still voting GOP I want the result in November to hurt them.
    Don’t forget Major1997.
    I didn't include Major in my list because I'm not entirely convinced that lessons were learnt in the 1997 defeat.

    Lessons learnt:
    Foot83: Don't be so extreme far left, expel Militant Tendency
    Dukakis88: Take Laura Norder seriously.
    Corbyn19: Deal with the antisemites . . . waiting to see if any more lessons are learnt.

    But for Major the response by the Tories seemed to be basically "oh well, we had a good run for 18 years and Blair is very popular, lets just wait until Blair isn't as popular and then we can naturally return to government". If there was much in the way of introspection and lesson learning in the Hague years I'm not sure what it was - I never saw it! It took until Cameron came around for that to seriously happen.
    Now that worries me.

    Cameron's solution was to morph into Blair. We don't want any Labour leader morphing into Johnson!
    You dont think Starmer might put on a few pounds, mess up his hair and...no, he will never mess up his hair, it's true.
    You have it the wrong way round. It is not that SKS needs to emulate Boris but that just as Cameron won by following Blair, so Boris won by morphing into Jeremy Corbyn.

    Boris won by lifting all the popular parts of Corbyn's 2017 platform (including shooting rather than hunting foxes!).
    Labour's top 5 issues according to the Guardian in 2017: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/may/16/labour-manifesto-analysis-key-points-pledges

    Increase Income Tax at the top
    Increase Company taxes
    Tax the City
    Water industry nationalistation
    Fund Public Ownership

    Which of them did Boris adopt?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 27,168
    Scott_xP said:

    BoZo really doesn't want to be the PM that "lost" Scotland, but he is working hard to make it happen.

    Boris will be the culprit but he won't be at the scene of the crime; it'll be part of his poisonous legacy.
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 2,981
    That is indeed big news in Labourland. It looks like Unite will move towards working pragmatically with Starmer from the left rather than continuing with the destructive open hostility represented by the likes of McCluskey and Beckett. In turn that's going to help the party draw together and isolate further the noisy but ineffectual fringe which still inanely sees its role as being to undermine Starmer.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 1,804
    Scott_xP said:

    Yeah, this will totally kill the Russian interference story...

    It is a valid point. Citizens should not be discriminated on the basis of their origin or their ancestors origin.

    The solution to the problem is limiting the size of the donation so that it can't be argued to be a bribe or requiring a favour.

    This probably needs a number put against it and a valuation method for gifts, although when I first started work we were told common sense applied given the example of a distillery giving you a bottle of whiskey was fine but a car manufacturer giving you a car was a bribe.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 5,106
    IanB2 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    BoZo really doesn't want to be the PM that "lost" Scotland, but he is working hard to make it happen.

    Boris will be the culprit but he won't be at the scene of the crime; it'll be part of his poisonous legacy.
    Indeed.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 37,084
    Scott_xP said:

    He was right to say that too and it is all Tony Blair's fault. When the Prime Minister of the UK is also quintessentially the First Minister of England too then having a Scottish PM is not going to be popular. It wasn't and Brown was devastated in the election - and look at how Scotland played out in 2015 too.

    Asymmetric devolution was utterly absurd. That Labour let Blair get away with it is insane. When Scotland goes independent (and I do now think it is when not if) then the fault lies squarely with Tony Blair.

    If there had been an English Parliament created in 1997 then much of what has caused resentment on both sides could have been avoided. And if he wasn't prepared to create an English Parliament he shouldn't have created a Scottish one.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 4,000

    geoffw said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    Enthusiasm doesn't increase the weight of your vote, though.

    It kind of does, in that it increases the probability that you'll cast it.
    I hate to say it, but maybe there's a streak in humanity that makes dislike more of a motivator than enthusiasm, just as bad news sells media better than good news?
    But you can't vote against someone, it has to be for someone, and if dislike is the only motivation then the vote is unfocussed.

    Not in a Yes/No referendum.
    You're not voting for someone in a referendum.

  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 8,300

    IanB2 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    BoZo really doesn't want to be the PM that "lost" Scotland, but he is working hard to make it happen.

    Boris will be the culprit but he won't be at the scene of the crime; it'll be part of his poisonous legacy.
    Indeed.
    I’ve made this point to @HYUFD before. Boris (and the Conservative Party) does not want to be the “Prime Minister who lost the union” but even if it happens under a subsequent Starmer government, I reckon that the history books would place the blame at The Conservatives 2015-2024.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 1,239

    Trump sending a surge of "federal agents" to cities across US.

    What's the betting these paramilitaries are enforcing "law and order" around polling stations come November?

    Yup. Democrats need to worry less about Trump not accepting defeat and more about him doing whatever he can - however violent and illegal - to prevent that defeat.

    Trump will not allow a free and fair election. Too much is at stake.

    My fear is that Democrats are not mentally prepared for this. They still do not get who they are dealing with. They will affect surprise and outrage, but it will be too late.

    And they will take some comfort in calling Trump voters stupid and bemoaning that their candidate was old and boring so that they can avoid the reality that their election was stolen.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 6,190
    Scott_xP said:
    Wow. That's special even for Boris.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 27,168
    kjh said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Yeah, this will totally kill the Russian interference story...

    It is a valid point. Citizens should not be discriminated on the basis of their origin or their ancestors origin.

    The solution to the problem is limiting the size of the donation so that it can't be argued to be a bribe or requiring a favour.

    This probably needs a number put against it and a valuation method for gifts, although when I first started work we were told common sense applied given the example of a distillery giving you a bottle of whiskey was fine but a car manufacturer giving you a car was a bribe.
    Trying to play the racist card to explain away taking political donations from meddling Russians is truly desperate stuff, though.
  • Fysics_TeacherFysics_Teacher Posts: 2,809

    Scott_xP said:

    He was right to say that too and it is all Tony Blair's fault. When the Prime Minister of the UK is also quintessentially the First Minister of England too then having a Scottish PM is not going to be popular. It wasn't and Brown was devastated in the election - and look at how Scotland played out in 2015 too.

    Asymmetric devolution was utterly absurd. That Labour let Blair get away with it is insane. When Scotland goes independent (and I do now think it is when not if) then the fault lies squarely with Tony Blair.

    If there had been an English Parliament created in 1997 then much of what has caused resentment on both sides could have been avoided. And if he wasn't prepared to create an English Parliament he shouldn't have created a Scottish one.
    The then famous “West Lothian Question”, asked many times but never given a satisfactory answer.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 12,809
    On topic. Yes, it's going to be a Silent Majority election and the "SM" have had enough of President Trump. He needs to become a different person for the next 3 months. Bank his base and attempt to convince others that contrary to the evidence of the last 4 years he is not such a dick after all. It will not be easy but he ought to at least try. It's only chance.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 37,084
    rkrkrk said:
    You don't see any issues under asymmetric devolution with having Scottish health and education being decided by those elected in Scotland . . . and English health and education being decided by those elected in Scotland?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 37,084

    Scott_xP said:

    He was right to say that too and it is all Tony Blair's fault. When the Prime Minister of the UK is also quintessentially the First Minister of England too then having a Scottish PM is not going to be popular. It wasn't and Brown was devastated in the election - and look at how Scotland played out in 2015 too.

    Asymmetric devolution was utterly absurd. That Labour let Blair get away with it is insane. When Scotland goes independent (and I do now think it is when not if) then the fault lies squarely with Tony Blair.

    If there had been an English Parliament created in 1997 then much of what has caused resentment on both sides could have been avoided. And if he wasn't prepared to create an English Parliament he shouldn't have created a Scottish one.
    The then famous “West Lothian Question”, asked many times but never given a satisfactory answer.
    It was a good question. It deserves a good answer and not to be brushed off because it was awkward.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 8,300

    rkrkrk said:
    You don't see any issues under asymmetric devolution with having Scottish health and education being decided by those elected in Scotland . . . and English health and education being decided by those elected in Scotland?
    I’ve always supported the UK being a proper federation.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 37,084

    rkrkrk said:
    You don't see any issues under asymmetric devolution with having Scottish health and education being decided by those elected in Scotland . . . and English health and education being decided by those elected in Scotland?
    I’ve always supported the UK being a proper federation.
    Its a shame it isn't though.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 3,749

    kle4 said:

    Foxy said:

    The "Anyone But Trump" vote will be a powerful motivator of enthusiasm.

    Joe Biden has the advantage of being hard to see as a threat. He isn't a great candidate, but there isn't much that would frighten blue collar Americans.

    Sometimes we miss the obvious when obsessed with what happened last time. I don't think Trump can pull off a repeat of 2016. He is a known factor now. Biden is leading by 8 points in the polls, and that seems to be increasing slowly.

    I tbink we can believe the polls* and that Trump 2020 will compare to 2016 as Corbyn 2019 did to 2017, with abject defeat. Indeed it probably needs to be a landslide to prevent the result being challenged.

    * 3 months for these to change of course...

    I 100% agree and will go one step further.

    Before the 2019 election I said that it needed to be a landslide for the sake of the country to say to the Labour Party that they had to change. That a continuity Corbyn "one more heave" candidate was not what was needed if they want to be taken seriously.

    The same needs to happen in the United States of America. For the sake of the country Biden needs to win a landslide. The GOP needs to see clearly and unambiguously that Trump was a terrible, catastrophic mistake. The GOP needs a tremendous wake up call like Corbyn19, Foot83, Dukakis88 etc so that next primary season if a Trump-style candidate is running the voters look back at 2020 and say "never again".

    Sometimes an election defeat has to hurt to make you think and realise what needs to be done next. That was 2019 election night for many Labourites. For those still voting GOP I want the result in November to hurt them.
    Don’t forget Major1997.
    I didn't include Major in my list because I'm not entirely convinced that lessons were learnt in the 1997 defeat.

    Lessons learnt:
    Foot83: Don't be so extreme far left, expel Militant Tendency
    Dukakis88: Take Laura Norder seriously.
    Corbyn19: Deal with the antisemites . . . waiting to see if any more lessons are learnt.

    But for Major the response by the Tories seemed to be basically "oh well, we had a good run for 18 years and Blair is very popular, lets just wait until Blair isn't as popular and then we can naturally return to government". If there was much in the way of introspection and lesson learning in the Hague years I'm not sure what it was - I never saw it! It took until Cameron came around for that to seriously happen.
    Now that worries me.

    Cameron's solution was to morph into Blair. We don't want any Labour leader morphing into Johnson!
    You dont think Starmer might put on a few pounds, mess up his hair and...no, he will never mess up his hair, it's true.
    You have it the wrong way round. It is not that SKS needs to emulate Boris but that just as Cameron won by following Blair, so Boris won by morphing into Jeremy Corbyn.

    Boris won by lifting all the popular parts of Corbyn's 2017 platform (including shooting rather than hunting foxes!).
    Labour's top 5 issues according to the Guardian in 2017: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/may/16/labour-manifesto-analysis-key-points-pledges

    Increase Income Tax at the top
    Increase Company taxes
    Tax the City
    Water industry nationalistation
    Fund Public Ownership

    Which of them did Boris adopt?
    Have you forgotten the Cabinet call-and-response?
    20,000 new police officers (not by coincidence, the number May and Cameron cut).
    40 new hospitals.
    50,000 new nurses.

    Not to mention an end to austerity. Or increased investment in schools, railways, buses (why do you think Corbyn kept asking about them at PMQs?), public services and infrastructure (including broadband!!).

  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 2,981
    edited July 23

    Jonathan said:

    Foxy said:

    The "Anyone But Trump" vote will be a powerful motivator of enthusiasm.

    Joe Biden has the advantage of being hard to see as a threat. He isn't a great candidate, but there isn't much that would frighten blue collar Americans.

    Sometimes we miss the obvious when obsessed with what happened last time. I don't think Trump can pull off a repeat of 2016. He is a known factor now. Biden is leading by 8 points in the polls, and that seems to be increasing slowly.

    I tbink we can believe the polls* and that Trump 2020 will compare to 2016 as Corbyn 2019 did to 2017, with abject defeat. Indeed it probably needs to be a landslide to prevent the result being challenged.

    * 3 months for these to change of course...

    I 100% agree and will go one step further.

    Before the 2019 election I said that it needed to be a landslide for the sake of the country to say to the Labour Party that they had to change. That a continuity Corbyn "one more heave" candidate was not what was needed if they want to be taken seriously.

    The same needs to happen in the United States of America. For the sake of the country Biden needs to win a landslide. The GOP needs to see clearly and unambiguously that Trump was a terrible, catastrophic mistake. The GOP needs a tremendous wake up call like Corbyn19, Foot83, Dukakis88 etc so that next primary season if a Trump-style candidate is running the voters look back at 2020 and say "never again".

    Sometimes an election defeat has to hurt to make you think and realise what needs to be done next. That was 2019 election night for many Labourites. For those still voting GOP I want the result in November to hurt them.
    The interesting question is how will the electorate signal to the Tories that they need to change after the debacle of this administration.
    By the comments on here you would think that the tories were miles behind in the polls rather than 6-10 points clear.
    But the Tories are miles behind in the polls. A massive 32 points behind in this month’s Sunday Times poll.

    Oh! You meant in England?
    Johnson has a net approval rating of -32% in Scotland. Starmer on the other hand has a net approval rating of +14% in Scotland.

    I foresee some electoral difficulties for the SNP if they act to bring down a 2024 Starmer-led minority government on the grounds that Labour won't sanction another vote on secession.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 8,482
    kinabalu said:

    On topic. Yes, it's going to be a Silent Majority election and the "SM" have had enough of President Trump. He needs to become a different person for the next 3 months. Bank his base and attempt to convince others that contrary to the evidence of the last 4 years he is not such a dick after all. It will not be easy but he ought to at least try. It's only chance.

    Just as Biden has been around long enough for people to know him, I think the same is true now of Trump. He can't change.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 5,106

    IanB2 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    BoZo really doesn't want to be the PM that "lost" Scotland, but he is working hard to make it happen.

    Boris will be the culprit but he won't be at the scene of the crime; it'll be part of his poisonous legacy.
    Indeed.
    I’ve made this point to @HYUFD before. Boris (and the Conservative Party) does not want to be the “Prime Minister who lost the union” but even if it happens under a subsequent Starmer government, I reckon that the history books would place the blame at The Conservatives 2015-2024.
    The issue you have with that idea is Conservative commentators like HYUFD can claim with some justification that the headline says it wasn't Johnson who lost the Union. It doesn't even have to be a non-Conservative. It could be a Sunak Government from 2024 buckling under the pressure for SIndyref2. One will have to read further to pick out Johnson's role, and it's the headline that matters.
  • Fysics_TeacherFysics_Teacher Posts: 2,809
    edited July 23

    IanB2 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    BoZo really doesn't want to be the PM that "lost" Scotland, but he is working hard to make it happen.

    Boris will be the culprit but he won't be at the scene of the crime; it'll be part of his poisonous legacy.
    Indeed.
    I’ve made this point to @HYUFD before. Boris (and the Conservative Party) does not want to be the “Prime Minister who lost the union” but even if it happens under a subsequent Starmer government, I reckon that the history books would place the blame at The Conservatives 2015-2024.
    The issue you have with that idea is Conservative commentators like HYUFD can claim with some justification that the headline says it wasn't Johnson who lost the Union. It doesn't even have to be a non-Conservative. It could be a Sunak Government from 2024 buckling under the pressure for SIndyref2. One will have to read further to pick out Johnson's role, and it's the headline that matters.
    Without looking it up, how many here could name the PM that lost (most of) Ireland?
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 2,069

    IanB2 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    BoZo really doesn't want to be the PM that "lost" Scotland, but he is working hard to make it happen.

    Boris will be the culprit but he won't be at the scene of the crime; it'll be part of his poisonous legacy.
    Indeed.
    I’ve made this point to @HYUFD before. Boris (and the Conservative Party) does not want to be the “Prime Minister who lost the union” but even if it happens under a subsequent Starmer government, I reckon that the history books would place the blame at The Conservatives 2015-2024.
    By that logic, it was the 1997-2010 Labour Government that 'lost the EU', given that its policies sowed the seeds of discontent that came to full bloom in the years following their loss of power.

    So it was actually Tony Blair who took us out of the EU. QED :wink:
  • eekeek Posts: 8,645

    IanB2 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    BoZo really doesn't want to be the PM that "lost" Scotland, but he is working hard to make it happen.

    Boris will be the culprit but he won't be at the scene of the crime; it'll be part of his poisonous legacy.
    Indeed.
    I’ve made this point to @HYUFD before. Boris (and the Conservative Party) does not want to be the “Prime Minister who lost the union” but even if it happens under a subsequent Starmer government, I reckon that the history books would place the blame at The Conservatives 2015-2024.
    The issue you have with that idea is Conservative commentators like HYUFD can claim with some justification that the headline says it wasn't Johnson who lost the Union. It doesn't even have to be a non-Conservative. It could be a Sunak Government from 2024 buckling under the pressure for SIndyref2. One will have to read further to pick out Johnson's role, and it's the headline that matters.
    Which why as I said earlier today I suspect Boris will be gone in 2021, with Brexit done before the manure hits the fan....
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 3,883
    edited July 23

    Good morning, everyone.

    Enthusiasm doesn't increase the weight of your vote, though.

    It kind of does, in that it increases the probability that you'll cast it.
    Whilst Biden supporters might not be as enthusiastic as Trump's might not the strength of hatred for Trump cancel that out. Those wanting to get rid of Trump might be really passionate about that even if they are a bit lukewarm about Biden. If I had a vote in the US I would walk over hot coals to vote against Trump's Democratic opponent whoever it might be and I'm not big on Biden
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 14,140
    edited July 23

    Trump sending a surge of "federal agents" to cities across US.

    What's the betting these paramilitaries are enforcing "law and order" around polling stations come November?

    Yup. Democrats need to worry less about Trump not accepting defeat and more about him doing whatever he can - however violent and illegal - to prevent that defeat.

    Trump will not allow a free and fair election. Too much is at stake.

    My fear is that Democrats are not mentally prepared for this. They still do not get who they are dealing with. They will affect surprise and outrage, but it will be too late.

    And they will take some comfort in calling Trump voters stupid and bemoaning that their candidate was old and boring so that they can avoid the reality that their election was stolen.
    Trump might try but the swing states now mostly have Dem governors, and even some of the GOP ones (like Kasich) are for Biden. If it comes down to a non-metaphorical ground war between the Department of Homeland Security and the states Trump is going to find himself heavily outnumbered; Outside the military the federal government just doesn't have that many guys.

    * PS Anyone who creates a thing called "Department of Homeland Security" has no right to be surprised when it's used in an attempted fascist coup d'état.

    Edit: Forgot Kasich isn't governor any more
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 19,198

    Scott_xP said:

    He was right to say that too and it is all Tony Blair's fault. When the Prime Minister of the UK is also quintessentially the First Minister of England too then having a Scottish PM is not going to be popular. It wasn't and Brown was devastated in the election - and look at how Scotland played out in 2015 too.

    Asymmetric devolution was utterly absurd. That Labour let Blair get away with it is insane. When Scotland goes independent (and I do now think it is when not if) then the fault lies squarely with Tony Blair.

    If there had been an English Parliament created in 1997 then much of what has caused resentment on both sides could have been avoided. And if he wasn't prepared to create an English Parliament he shouldn't have created a Scottish one.
    An English Parliament would have resulted in a somewhat asymmetric state, given the populations. Prescott sensibly tried Regional Assemblies, on the lines of London, but was heavily defeated in what was arguably the most promising area by a group which included a Mr D. Cummings.

    However, we're now creating regional and sub-regional groups, with Mayors. There's a suggestion of one in my former home area which I fear will result in a substantial amount of discontent, given there's one big and two or three much smaller players.
This discussion has been closed.