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SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited July 23 in General
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  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 5,764
  • dodradedodrade Posts: 465
    Does the Nighthawks cafe require facemasks at midnight?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 31,859
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:

    I must confess I was beginning to wonder. As the Rasmussen crosstabs are behind a paywall (as are the Trafalgar ones), I simply don't know how their sampling is different from other pollsters but the current +2 lead for Biden sticks out like an outlier (as does the +15 lead from Quinnipiac).

    The latter has now produced a +13 lead for Biden in Florida (51-38) while St Pete Polls has Biden ahead 50-44.

    We also had the Hill/Harris X poll last evening - Biden leads 45-38 in that. The regional split has Biden up 45-39 in the North East which seems remarkably good for Trump and 45-38 in the Midwest which seems remarkably good for Biden. Biden up 50-32 in the West and 42-41 in the South.

    Biden leads 47-37 among White voters (really?). Among men Biden leads 44-42 (really again?) and among women by 47-34.

    Not at all convinced by this poll to be honest.


    Should be pointed out in 2016 Rasmussen were the only pollster to correctly have a Hillary popular vote lead of 2% and Trafalgar group were the only pollster to have Trump ahead in Pennsylvania and Michigan
    A quick scan of this shows that statement on Rasmussen to be fake news...

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nationwide_opinion_polling_for_the_2016_United_States_presidential_election#After_convention_nominations

    A fair few pollsters showed a 2% lead for Clinton in the run-up to the 2016 election. Most others showed leads for which the actual result fell within the MOE.

    EDIT: Also, Rasmussen published 4 polls in the last week before the election showing Clinton +2%, Tied, Trump +3, and Tied.
    That link shows clearly no pollster other than Rasmussen had Clinton ahead by 2% in November 2016, the month of the election.

    It is your final poll that really counts
    Wrong again:

    McClatchy/Marist November 1–3, 46% - 44%
    Google Consumer Surveys November 1–7, 38% - 36%
    Fox News November 1–3, 45% - 43%
    Fox News final had Clinton up by 1% on 1st to 3rd November and by 4% in its final poll from 4th to 6th November.

    Google Consumer Surveys was not on the link you sent and miles out in terms of actual voteshare.

    I give you McClatchy Marist which was the only other pollster therefore comparable to Rasmussen in accuracy of its final poll
    The Google number has a "will not vote" category, so it was actually very accurate as far as actual human behaviour.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 16,902
    dodrade said:

    Does the Nighthawks cafe require facemasks at midnight?

    Not for drinkers, only for takeaways.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 31,859

    rcs1000 said:

    nichomar said:

    nichomar said:

    OllyT said:

    kle4 said:

    I hope I am wrong but I think the enforced mask wearing will make the Covid situation worse in the UK and that in 2 weeks new cases will be over 1000 per day. If face coverings were the solution then the WHO would have recommended them back in March but they didn’t. Countries where face coverings are far more prevalent than the UK are seeing rises in cases now and I fear we will be the same. Social distancing and hand washing have worked in the UK , Deaths are below average and the number of new cases is under control. There is no need for this change and I fear it will have the opposite of the desired effect.

    You don't sound like you hope you are wrong.
    Of course I hope I’m wrong as if cases go up the government will force mask wearing every time you go outside which is the case in Spain at the moment.
    I thought a couple of PBers who actually live in Spain told you you earlier that the rise in infections in Spain were mainly coming from situations where masks were still not worn, ie clusters from nightclubs. Are you ignoring that because it doesn't fit your agenda?
    I’ll find some breakdowns tomorrow of where these outbreaks are coming from but off the top of my head

    Night bars frequented by young people
    Family gatherings at home or in restaurants

    The first infections in this wave came from meat processing plants.
    In Spain you cannot go out without a mask on, if you do you face an instant fine. On the beach when you sunbathe you can remove the mask but as soon as you stand up you must put the mask on, yet cases are on the rise. I might be naive but I don’t see these results as evidence that mask wearing works.

    Family gatherings are allowed in the uk now and pubs are open and busy yet without forced mask wearing our new cases are less than Spain.



    Don’t count your chickens
    I’m not, we will follow Spain’s lead and make mask wearing mandatory and cases will rise
    Why might wearing masks cause cases to rise?
    It doesn't. @NerysHughes is smoking crack.

    If mask wearing wasn't effective at preventing the spread disease, then surgeons wouldn't bother wearing them.
    Nice comment!
    Masks are now mandatory in Spain and news cases doubled today to 2600.
    How is that evidence that wearing masks works.
    Surgeons wear a face fitted mask which is completely different to masks the public wears. It’s like saying wearing sunglasses is the same as wearing a welders mask.
    Now, I'm normally one of the most polite poster on PB, and you have previously shown no signs of mental retardation. A correlation, on its own, is no evidence of causation.

    Has anything else happened in Spain that might have had an impact on case numbers? Like, for example, nightclubs reopening?

  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 1,114
    FPT - Politico.com:

    Kimberly Guilfoyle under fire for Trump fundraising disarray

    Interviews depict an operation beset by departures, staffers with no prior fundraising experience and accusations of irresponsible spending.

    FYI, Ms Guilfoyle is Don Jr's girlfriend (lucky lady!) who tested positive for you-know-what during 4th of July Trumpsky desecration of Mount Rushmore. She is in charge of small-to-medium donor FR, a category in which Uncle Joe has been eating Trumpsky's lunch (yet another sign that "enthusiasm" for The Donald is NOT all it's cracked up to be).

    On that occasion, members of her staff were stranded in Rapid City ,SD under quarantine. Turns out being in the Heartland freaked these dweebles out.

    "There are also questions about spending. In March, two staffers chose not to fly commercial and instead took the private jet of a major Trump donor to the president’s Mar-a-Lago resort for a finance event. The campaign had to reimburse the roughly $25,000 cost."
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 35,023
    dodrade said:

    Does the Nighthawks cafe require facemasks at midnight?

    Only for Tories, Brexiteers and other reprobates.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 13,332
    FPT
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:

    I must confess I was beginning to wonder. As the Rasmussen crosstabs are behind a paywall (as are the Trafalgar ones), I simply don't know how their sampling is different from other pollsters but the current +2 lead for Biden sticks out like an outlier (as does the +15 lead from Quinnipiac).

    The latter has now produced a +13 lead for Biden in Florida (51-38) while St Pete Polls has Biden ahead 50-44.

    We also had the Hill/Harris X poll last evening - Biden leads 45-38 in that. The regional split has Biden up 45-39 in the North East which seems remarkably good for Trump and 45-38 in the Midwest which seems remarkably good for Biden. Biden up 50-32 in the West and 42-41 in the South.

    Biden leads 47-37 among White voters (really?). Among men Biden leads 44-42 (really again?) and among women by 47-34.

    Not at all convinced by this poll to be honest.


    Should be pointed out in 2016 Rasmussen were the only pollster to correctly have a Hillary popular vote lead of 2% and Trafalgar group were the only pollster to have Trump ahead in Pennsylvania and Michigan
    A quick scan of this shows that statement on Rasmussen to be fake news...

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nationwide_opinion_polling_for_the_2016_United_States_presidential_election#After_convention_nominations

    A fair few pollsters showed a 2% lead for Clinton in the run-up to the 2016 election. Most others showed leads for which the actual result fell within the MOE.

    EDIT: Also, Rasmussen published 4 polls in the last week before the election showing Clinton +2%, Tied, Trump +3, and Tied.
    That link shows clearly no pollster other than Rasmussen had Clinton ahead by 2% in November 2016, the month of the election.

    It is your final poll that really counts
    Wrong again:

    McClatchy/Marist November 1–3, 46% - 44%
    Google Consumer Surveys November 1–7, 38% - 36%
    Fox News November 1–3, 45% - 43%
    Fox News final had Clinton up by 1% on 1st to 3rd November and by 4% in its final poll from 4th to 6th November.

    Google Consumer Surveys was not on the link you sent and miles out in terms of actual voteshare.

    I give you McClatchy Marist which was the only other pollster therefore comparable to Rasmussen in accuracy of its final poll
    The Google Survey is the first entry in the three-way race section

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nationwide_opinion_polling_for_the_2016_United_States_presidential_election#Three-way_race

    You should know better than to be arguing the toss over those that got 2% versus those that showed 3% or 1% Clinton leads; they all had MOEs of 2-4% (aprart from the Google Survey, funnily enough).

    The difference in the last four Rasmussen polls in the week before the election says nothing about the changing mood of the electorate or the refinement of their polling accuracy; it was all a reflection of MOE.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 5,764
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    nichomar said:

    nichomar said:

    OllyT said:

    kle4 said:

    I hope I am wrong but I think the enforced mask wearing will make the Covid situation worse in the UK and that in 2 weeks new cases will be over 1000 per day. If face coverings were the solution then the WHO would have recommended them back in March but they didn’t. Countries where face coverings are far more prevalent than the UK are seeing rises in cases now and I fear we will be the same. Social distancing and hand washing have worked in the UK , Deaths are below average and the number of new cases is under control. There is no need for this change and I fear it will have the opposite of the desired effect.

    You don't sound like you hope you are wrong.
    Of course I hope I’m wrong as if cases go up the government will force mask wearing every time you go outside which is the case in Spain at the moment.
    I thought a couple of PBers who actually live in Spain told you you earlier that the rise in infections in Spain were mainly coming from situations where masks were still not worn, ie clusters from nightclubs. Are you ignoring that because it doesn't fit your agenda?
    I’ll find some breakdowns tomorrow of where these outbreaks are coming from but off the top of my head

    Night bars frequented by young people
    Family gatherings at home or in restaurants

    The first infections in this wave came from meat processing plants.
    In Spain you cannot go out without a mask on, if you do you face an instant fine. On the beach when you sunbathe you can remove the mask but as soon as you stand up you must put the mask on, yet cases are on the rise. I might be naive but I don’t see these results as evidence that mask wearing works.

    Family gatherings are allowed in the uk now and pubs are open and busy yet without forced mask wearing our new cases are less than Spain.



    Don’t count your chickens
    I’m not, we will follow Spain’s lead and make mask wearing mandatory and cases will rise
    Why might wearing masks cause cases to rise?
    It doesn't. @NerysHughes is smoking crack.

    If mask wearing wasn't effective at preventing the spread disease, then surgeons wouldn't bother wearing them.
    Nice comment!
    Masks are now mandatory in Spain and news cases doubled today to 2600.
    How is that evidence that wearing masks works.
    Surgeons wear a face fitted mask which is completely different to masks the public wears. It’s like saying wearing sunglasses is the same as wearing a welders mask.
    Now, I'm normally one of the most polite poster on PB, and you have previously shown no signs of mental retardation. A correlation, on its own, is no evidence of causation.

    Has anything else happened in Spain that might have had an impact on case numbers? Like, for example, nightclubs reopening?

    I would have thought, after the South Korean thing, that even Donald Fucking Trump would have kept the nightclubs closed.....
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 2,705
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    nichomar said:

    nichomar said:

    OllyT said:

    kle4 said:

    I hope I am wrong but I think the enforced mask wearing will make the Covid situation worse in the UK and that in 2 weeks new cases will be over 1000 per day. If face coverings were the solution then the WHO would have recommended them back in March but they didn’t. Countries where face coverings are far more prevalent than the UK are seeing rises in cases now and I fear we will be the same. Social distancing and hand washing have worked in the UK , Deaths are below average and the number of new cases is under control. There is no need for this change and I fear it will have the opposite of the desired effect.

    You don't sound like you hope you are wrong.
    Of course I hope I’m wrong as if cases go up the government will force mask wearing every time you go outside which is the case in Spain at the moment.
    I thought a couple of PBers who actually live in Spain told you you earlier that the rise in infections in Spain were mainly coming from situations where masks were still not worn, ie clusters from nightclubs. Are you ignoring that because it doesn't fit your agenda?
    I’ll find some breakdowns tomorrow of where these outbreaks are coming from but off the top of my head

    Night bars frequented by young people
    Family gatherings at home or in restaurants

    The first infections in this wave came from meat processing plants.
    In Spain you cannot go out without a mask on, if you do you face an instant fine. On the beach when you sunbathe you can remove the mask but as soon as you stand up you must put the mask on, yet cases are on the rise. I might be naive but I don’t see these results as evidence that mask wearing works.

    Family gatherings are allowed in the uk now and pubs are open and busy yet without forced mask wearing our new cases are less than Spain.



    Don’t count your chickens
    I’m not, we will follow Spain’s lead and make mask wearing mandatory and cases will rise
    Why might wearing masks cause cases to rise?
    It doesn't. @NerysHughes is smoking crack.

    If mask wearing wasn't effective at preventing the spread disease, then surgeons wouldn't bother wearing them.
    Nice comment!
    Masks are now mandatory in Spain and news cases doubled today to 2600.
    How is that evidence that wearing masks works.
    Surgeons wear a face fitted mask which is completely different to masks the public wears. It’s like saying wearing sunglasses is the same as wearing a welders mask.
    Now, I'm normally one of the most polite poster on PB, and you have previously shown no signs of mental retardation. A correlation, on its own, is no evidence of causation.

    Has anything else happened in Spain that might have had an impact on case numbers? Like, for example, nightclubs reopening?

    Have you noticed how the more people put up umbrellas, the more heavily it rains? It's the same effect.
  • HFUYD isn't a polling font, he's just here to share his agenda
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 5,206
    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    A curious omission from @HYUFD when posting polls:

    Yet on actual polling all the indyref2 polls this year including Don't Knows have had Yes in a range of 43% to 50%, not vastly different from the 45% Yes got in 2014, not one single poll this year has had Yes over 50% once don't knows are included

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proposed_second_Scottish_independence_referendum#Opinion_polling
    That is not the same point though. 59% of all Brits and 74% of Scots feel the United Kingdom is weaker over 5 years. It is hard to see that reversed by BoZos Clown car crash Brexit.

    Scottish Independence now looks inevitable, the only questions are timing and how acrimonious.
    Timing: under the next Labour Prime Minister, whenever that is

    Nastiness: extreme - expect many years of vicious eye-gouging over a whole range of inflammatory problems including (in no particular order) Trident, the national debt, the currency, the reserves of the Bank of England, the contents of the British Museum, citizenship, pensions and tariff barriers. Relations will be absolutely dreadful for at least as long as it takes for everybody who was involved in the separation process on both sides to die of old age
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 55,331
    algarkirk said:

    HYUFD said:
    Good. One of the generally splendid SKS's misjudgements was to be photographed doing the knee thing and looking a prat. Interesting that most people don't care for it.
    I don't discount the worth of gestures on occasion. Sometimes you need to make a gesture. But given people claim they want actions and not just gestures, I do find the emphasis on gestures to be a bit much sometimes, like Hamilton berating and lecturing F1 drivers for not doing what he wants, when I would have thought after an initial gesture which many did participate in, how long do they need to keep doing gestures when the important aspect is not the gesture?
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 1,114
    In case PBers have NOT noticed, MANY congressional & state Republican officeholders are trying to put increasing distance between themselves and their Fearless Leader. In the process, they are facing frenzied opposition from Ever Trumpers as well as opportunists who calculate that it's too late to jump ship.

    One result - Congressional GOP has wasted a week in empty wrangling as unemployment for millions of jobless Americans in getting ready to run out.

    Note this is VERY similar to way that Republicans acted in 1932 when faced with looming disaster thanks to the "leadership" of Herbert Hoover. Who of course was a statesman and paragon compared to Trumpsky.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 55,331
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    nichomar said:

    nichomar said:

    OllyT said:

    kle4 said:

    I hope I am wrong but I think the enforced mask wearing will make the Covid situation worse in the UK and that in 2 weeks new cases will be over 1000 per day. If face coverings were the solution then the WHO would have recommended them back in March but they didn’t. Countries where face coverings are far more prevalent than the UK are seeing rises in cases now and I fear we will be the same. Social distancing and hand washing have worked in the UK , Deaths are below average and the number of new cases is under control. There is no need for this change and I fear it will have the opposite of the desired effect.

    You don't sound like you hope you are wrong.
    Of course I hope I’m wrong as if cases go up the government will force mask wearing every time you go outside which is the case in Spain at the moment.
    I thought a couple of PBers who actually live in Spain told you you earlier that the rise in infections in Spain were mainly coming from situations where masks were still not worn, ie clusters from nightclubs. Are you ignoring that because it doesn't fit your agenda?
    I’ll find some breakdowns tomorrow of where these outbreaks are coming from but off the top of my head

    Night bars frequented by young people
    Family gatherings at home or in restaurants

    The first infections in this wave came from meat processing plants.
    In Spain you cannot go out without a mask on, if you do you face an instant fine. On the beach when you sunbathe you can remove the mask but as soon as you stand up you must put the mask on, yet cases are on the rise. I might be naive but I don’t see these results as evidence that mask wearing works.

    Family gatherings are allowed in the uk now and pubs are open and busy yet without forced mask wearing our new cases are less than Spain.



    Don’t count your chickens
    I’m not, we will follow Spain’s lead and make mask wearing mandatory and cases will rise
    Why might wearing masks cause cases to rise?
    It doesn't. @NerysHughes is smoking crack.

    If mask wearing wasn't effective at preventing the spread disease, then surgeons wouldn't bother wearing them.
    Nice comment!
    Masks are now mandatory in Spain and news cases doubled today to 2600.
    How is that evidence that wearing masks works.
    Surgeons wear a face fitted mask which is completely different to masks the public wears. It’s like saying wearing sunglasses is the same as wearing a welders mask.
    Now, I'm normally one of the most polite poster on PB, and you have previously shown no signs of mental retardation. A correlation, on its own, is no evidence of causation.

    Has anything else happened in Spain that might have had an impact on case numbers? Like, for example, nightclubs reopening?

    Quite. Getting things under control during extreme lockdown without the need for mass masks (since most people didn't encounter anyone out and about), then needing masks while relaxing lockdown to keep things under control, is not logically absurd.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 74,050
    edited July 23

    HFUYD isn't a polling font, he's just here to share his agenda

    Well at least I share more polling data than you, you tend to just share your agenda (and please spell my PB name correctly)
  • rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    nichomar said:

    nichomar said:

    OllyT said:

    kle4 said:

    I hope I am wrong but I think the enforced mask wearing will make the Covid situation worse in the UK and that in 2 weeks new cases will be over 1000 per day. If face coverings were the solution then the WHO would have recommended them back in March but they didn’t. Countries where face coverings are far more prevalent than the UK are seeing rises in cases now and I fear we will be the same. Social distancing and hand washing have worked in the UK , Deaths are below average and the number of new cases is under control. There is no need for this change and I fear it will have the opposite of the desired effect.

    You don't sound like you hope you are wrong.
    Of course I hope I’m wrong as if cases go up the government will force mask wearing every time you go outside which is the case in Spain at the moment.
    I thought a couple of PBers who actually live in Spain told you you earlier that the rise in infections in Spain were mainly coming from situations where masks were still not worn, ie clusters from nightclubs. Are you ignoring that because it doesn't fit your agenda?
    I’ll find some breakdowns tomorrow of where these outbreaks are coming from but off the top of my head

    Night bars frequented by young people
    Family gatherings at home or in restaurants

    The first infections in this wave came from meat processing plants.
    In Spain you cannot go out without a mask on, if you do you face an instant fine. On the beach when you sunbathe you can remove the mask but as soon as you stand up you must put the mask on, yet cases are on the rise. I might be naive but I don’t see these results as evidence that mask wearing works.

    Family gatherings are allowed in the uk now and pubs are open and busy yet without forced mask wearing our new cases are less than Spain.



    Don’t count your chickens
    I’m not, we will follow Spain’s lead and make mask wearing mandatory and cases will rise
    Why might wearing masks cause cases to rise?
    It doesn't. @NerysHughes is smoking crack.

    If mask wearing wasn't effective at preventing the spread disease, then surgeons wouldn't bother wearing them.
    Nice comment!
    Masks are now mandatory in Spain and news cases doubled today to 2600.
    How is that evidence that wearing masks works.
    Surgeons wear a face fitted mask which is completely different to masks the public wears. It’s like saying wearing sunglasses is the same as wearing a welders mask.
    Now, I'm normally one of the most polite poster on PB, and you have previously shown no signs of mental retardation. A correlation, on its own, is no evidence of causation.

    Has anything else happened in Spain that might have had an impact on case numbers? Like, for example, nightclubs reopening?

    That's just statisical noise.
    Look at the wider picture of available evidence. Countries that aggressively went for the mask wearing nonsense early like Taiwan or Vietnam have been completely ravaged by the plague. Sensible countries that rejected such foolishness like the US, Brazil or the UK have been virtually untouched.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 74,050
    edited July 23

    FPT

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:

    I must confess I was beginning to wonder. As the Rasmussen crosstabs are behind a paywall (as are the Trafalgar ones), I simply don't know how their sampling is different from other pollsters but the current +2 lead for Biden sticks out like an outlier (as does the +15 lead from Quinnipiac).

    The latter has now produced a +13 lead for Biden in Florida (51-38) while St Pete Polls has Biden ahead 50-44.

    We also had the Hill/Harris X poll last evening - Biden leads 45-38 in that. The regional split has Biden up 45-39 in the North East which seems remarkably good for Trump and 45-38 in the Midwest which seems remarkably good for Biden. Biden up 50-32 in the West and 42-41 in the South.

    Biden leads 47-37 among White voters (really?). Among men Biden leads 44-42 (really again?) and among women by 47-34.

    Not at all convinced by this poll to be honest.


    Should be pointed out in 2016 Rasmussen were the only pollster to correctly have a Hillary popular vote lead of 2% and Trafalgar group were the only pollster to have Trump ahead in Pennsylvania and Michigan
    A quick scan of this shows that statement on Rasmussen to be fake news...

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nationwide_opinion_polling_for_the_2016_United_States_presidential_election#After_convention_nominations

    A fair few pollsters showed a 2% lead for Clinton in the run-up to the 2016 election. Most others showed leads for which the actual result fell within the MOE.

    EDIT: Also, Rasmussen published 4 polls in the last week before the election showing Clinton +2%, Tied, Trump +3, and Tied.
    That link shows clearly no pollster other than Rasmussen had Clinton ahead by 2% in November 2016, the month of the election.

    It is your final poll that really counts
    Wrong again:

    McClatchy/Marist November 1–3, 46% - 44%
    Google Consumer Surveys November 1–7, 38% - 36%
    Fox News November 1–3, 45% - 43%
    Fox News final had Clinton up by 1% on 1st to 3rd November and by 4% in its final poll from 4th to 6th November.

    Google Consumer Surveys was not on the link you sent and miles out in terms of actual voteshare.

    I give you McClatchy Marist which was the only other pollster therefore comparable to Rasmussen in accuracy of its final poll
    The Google Survey is the first entry in the three-way race section

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nationwide_opinion_polling_for_the_2016_United_States_presidential_election#Three-way_race

    You should know better than to be arguing the toss over those that got 2% versus those that showed 3% or 1% Clinton leads; they all had MOEs of 2-4% (aprart from the Google Survey, funnily enough).

    The difference in the last four Rasmussen polls in the week before the election says nothing about the changing mood of the electorate or the refinement of their polling accuracy; it was all a reflection of MOE.
    Rasmussen was clearly in the two or three most accurate pollsters in 2016 and was also pretty accurate in 2004 and 2008 too. It overestimated Romney in 2012 due to higher than expected black turnout but other than that its results should be taken seriously
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 55,331

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    A curious omission from @HYUFD when posting polls:

    Yet on actual polling all the indyref2 polls this year including Don't Knows have had Yes in a range of 43% to 50%, not vastly different from the 45% Yes got in 2014, not one single poll this year has had Yes over 50% once don't knows are included

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proposed_second_Scottish_independence_referendum#Opinion_polling
    That is not the same point though. 59% of all Brits and 74% of Scots feel the United Kingdom is weaker over 5 years. It is hard to see that reversed by BoZos Clown car crash Brexit.

    Scottish Independence now looks inevitable, the only questions are timing and how acrimonious.
    Timing: under the next Labour Prime Minister, whenever that is

    Nastiness: extreme - expect many years of vicious eye-gouging over a whole range of inflammatory problems including (in no particular order) Trident, the national debt, the currency, the reserves of the Bank of England, the contents of the British Museum, citizenship, pensions and tariff barriers. Relations will be absolutely dreadful for at least as long as it takes for everybody who was involved in the separation process on both sides to die of old age
    It will be brutal, no question. We know that splits on such major topics will cause hateful reactions in whichever side loses.

    However, nothing is inevitable, even if the prospects look very grim, and we shouldn't pretend it is inevitable as that's just an excuse to convince people to give in.
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 5,830
    edited July 23
    HYUFD said:

    HFUYD isn't a polling font, he's just here to share his agenda

    Well at least I share more polling data than you, you tend to just share your agenda
    I posted three polls just an hour or so ago, as did you but then you oddly didn't post a poll that showed that something that contradicted your agenda, despite being in the same Twitter thread.

    How many times have I posted polls showing Labour behind? A lot, that's what.

    So sod off with your nonsense HYUFD.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 55,331

    In case PBers have NOT noticed, MANY congressional & state Republican officeholders are trying to put increasing distance between themselves and their Fearless Leader. In the process, they are facing frenzied opposition from Ever Trumpers as well as opportunists who calculate that it's too late to jump ship.

    One result - Congressional GOP has wasted a week in empty wrangling as unemployment for millions of jobless Americans in getting ready to run out.

    Note this is VERY similar to way that Republicans acted in 1932 when faced with looming disaster thanks to the "leadership" of Herbert Hoover. Who of course was a statesman and paragon compared to Trumpsky.

    I had not noticed. I thought the regular GOP members had all been cowed and were now resigned or enthusiastic to their fate, come what may.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 1,114
    IshmaelZ said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    nichomar said:

    nichomar said:

    OllyT said:

    kle4 said:

    I hope I am wrong but I think the enforced mask wearing will make the Covid situation worse in the UK and that in 2 weeks new cases will be over 1000 per day. If face coverings were the solution then the WHO would have recommended them back in March but they didn’t. Countries where face coverings are far more prevalent than the UK are seeing rises in cases now and I fear we will be the same. Social distancing and hand washing have worked in the UK , Deaths are below average and the number of new cases is under control. There is no need for this change and I fear it will have the opposite of the desired effect.

    You don't sound like you hope you are wrong.
    Of course I hope I’m wrong as if cases go up the government will force mask wearing every time you go outside which is the case in Spain at the moment.
    I thought a couple of PBers who actually live in Spain told you you earlier that the rise in infections in Spain were mainly coming from situations where masks were still not worn, ie clusters from nightclubs. Are you ignoring that because it doesn't fit your agenda?
    I’ll find some breakdowns tomorrow of where these outbreaks are coming from but off the top of my head

    Night bars frequented by young people
    Family gatherings at home or in restaurants

    The first infections in this wave came from meat processing plants.
    In Spain you cannot go out without a mask on, if you do you face an instant fine. On the beach when you sunbathe you can remove the mask but as soon as you stand up you must put the mask on, yet cases are on the rise. I might be naive but I don’t see these results as evidence that mask wearing works.

    Family gatherings are allowed in the uk now and pubs are open and busy yet without forced mask wearing our new cases are less than Spain.



    Don’t count your chickens
    I’m not, we will follow Spain’s lead and make mask wearing mandatory and cases will rise
    Why might wearing masks cause cases to rise?
    It doesn't. @NerysHughes is smoking crack.

    If mask wearing wasn't effective at preventing the spread disease, then surgeons wouldn't bother wearing them.
    Nice comment!
    Masks are now mandatory in Spain and news cases doubled today to 2600.
    How is that evidence that wearing masks works.
    Surgeons wear a face fitted mask which is completely different to masks the public wears. It’s like saying wearing sunglasses is the same as wearing a welders mask.
    Now, I'm normally one of the most polite poster on PB, and you have previously shown no signs of mental retardation. A correlation, on its own, is no evidence of causation.

    Has anything else happened in Spain that might have had an impact on case numbers? Like, for example, nightclubs reopening?

    Have you noticed how the more people put up umbrellas, the more heavily it rains? It's the same effect.
    Here is Seattle, the umbrella is the badge of the Outlander. Few native-born "mossbacks" own one, and newcomers soon learn to keep the one they brought with them in the closet.

    There WAS an umbrella store in downtown Seattle for a few years. Went out of business about a year ago, the owner (originally from out of state) thought it would be a natural hit. Turned out the only business she got was from tourists.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 5,206

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    nichomar said:

    nichomar said:

    OllyT said:

    kle4 said:

    I hope I am wrong but I think the enforced mask wearing will make the Covid situation worse in the UK and that in 2 weeks new cases will be over 1000 per day. If face coverings were the solution then the WHO would have recommended them back in March but they didn’t. Countries where face coverings are far more prevalent than the UK are seeing rises in cases now and I fear we will be the same. Social distancing and hand washing have worked in the UK , Deaths are below average and the number of new cases is under control. There is no need for this change and I fear it will have the opposite of the desired effect.

    You don't sound like you hope you are wrong.
    Of course I hope I’m wrong as if cases go up the government will force mask wearing every time you go outside which is the case in Spain at the moment.
    I thought a couple of PBers who actually live in Spain told you you earlier that the rise in infections in Spain were mainly coming from situations where masks were still not worn, ie clusters from nightclubs. Are you ignoring that because it doesn't fit your agenda?
    I’ll find some breakdowns tomorrow of where these outbreaks are coming from but off the top of my head

    Night bars frequented by young people
    Family gatherings at home or in restaurants

    The first infections in this wave came from meat processing plants.
    In Spain you cannot go out without a mask on, if you do you face an instant fine. On the beach when you sunbathe you can remove the mask but as soon as you stand up you must put the mask on, yet cases are on the rise. I might be naive but I don’t see these results as evidence that mask wearing works.

    Family gatherings are allowed in the uk now and pubs are open and busy yet without forced mask wearing our new cases are less than Spain.



    Don’t count your chickens
    I’m not, we will follow Spain’s lead and make mask wearing mandatory and cases will rise
    Why might wearing masks cause cases to rise?
    It doesn't. @NerysHughes is smoking crack.

    If mask wearing wasn't effective at preventing the spread disease, then surgeons wouldn't bother wearing them.
    Nice comment!
    Masks are now mandatory in Spain and news cases doubled today to 2600.
    How is that evidence that wearing masks works.
    Surgeons wear a face fitted mask which is completely different to masks the public wears. It’s like saying wearing sunglasses is the same as wearing a welders mask.
    Now, I'm normally one of the most polite poster on PB, and you have previously shown no signs of mental retardation. A correlation, on its own, is no evidence of causation.

    Has anything else happened in Spain that might have had an impact on case numbers? Like, for example, nightclubs reopening?

    I would have thought, after the South Korean thing, that even Donald Fucking Trump would have kept the nightclubs closed.....
    Just as a matter of interest, are Spaniards actually obliged to wear masks when they go to nightclubs? And if so, why in God's name would you even bother?

    I mean, nightclubs are awful (hot, dark, excruciatingly loud,) but it's hard not to conclude that mask wearing would make them considerably more awful.
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 1,026
    edited July 23

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    A curious omission from @HYUFD when posting polls:

    Yet on actual polling all the indyref2 polls this year including Don't Knows have had Yes in a range of 43% to 50%, not vastly different from the 45% Yes got in 2014, not one single poll this year has had Yes over 50% once don't knows are included

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proposed_second_Scottish_independence_referendum#Opinion_polling
    That is not the same point though. 59% of all Brits and 74% of Scots feel the United Kingdom is weaker over 5 years. It is hard to see that reversed by BoZos Clown car crash Brexit.

    Scottish Independence now looks inevitable, the only questions are timing and how acrimonious.
    Timing: under the next Labour Prime Minister, whenever that is

    Nastiness: extreme - expect many years of vicious eye-gouging over a whole range of inflammatory problems including (in no particular order) Trident, the national debt, the currency, the reserves of the Bank of England, the contents of the British Museum, citizenship, pensions and tariff barriers. Relations will be absolutely dreadful for at least as long as it takes for everybody who was involved in the separation process on both sides to die of old age
    Yes. Scottish Independence (which I think is inevitable) will make Brexit seem like a minor family disagreement.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 934

    FPT - Politico.com:

    Kimberly Guilfoyle under fire for Trump fundraising disarray

    Interviews depict an operation beset by departures, staffers with no prior fundraising experience and accusations of irresponsible spending.

    FYI, Ms Guilfoyle is Don Jr's girlfriend (lucky lady!) who tested positive for you-know-what during 4th of July Trumpsky desecration of Mount Rushmore. She is in charge of small-to-medium donor FR, a category in which Uncle Joe has been eating Trumpsky's lunch (yet another sign that "enthusiasm" for The Donald is NOT all it's cracked up to be).

    On that occasion, members of her staff were stranded in Rapid City ,SD under quarantine. Turns out being in the Heartland freaked these dweebles out.

    "There are also questions about spending. In March, two staffers chose not to fly commercial and instead took the private jet of a major Trump donor to the president’s Mar-a-Lago resort for a finance event. The campaign had to reimburse the roughly $25,000 cost."

    I can attest to the lack of targeting of this effort.

    Not only am I getting incessant Trump begging emails, but I am getting them from every f***ing Republican in every race in every state. Despite the fact that I politely reply to each and every such email with "F**k off, Trump needs to be imprisoned for his crimes against the USA, and every GOP member of Congress has been complicit."
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 74,050
    edited July 23
    CatMan said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    A curious omission from @HYUFD when posting polls:

    Yet on actual polling all the indyref2 polls this year including Don't Knows have had Yes in a range of 43% to 50%, not vastly different from the 45% Yes got in 2014, not one single poll this year has had Yes over 50% once don't knows are included

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proposed_second_Scottish_independence_referendum#Opinion_polling
    That is not the same point though. 59% of all Brits and 74% of Scots feel the United Kingdom is weaker over 5 years. It is hard to see that reversed by BoZos Clown car crash Brexit.

    Scottish Independence now looks inevitable, the only questions are timing and how acrimonious.
    Timing: under the next Labour Prime Minister, whenever that is

    Nastiness: extreme - expect many years of vicious eye-gouging over a whole range of inflammatory problems including (in no particular order) Trident, the national debt, the currency, the reserves of the Bank of England, the contents of the British Museum, citizenship, pensions and tariff barriers. Relations will be absolutely dreadful for at least as long as it takes for everybody who was involved in the separation process on both sides to die of old age

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    A curious omission from @HYUFD when posting polls:

    Yet on actual polling all the indyref2 polls this year including Don't Knows have had Yes in a range of 43% to 50%, not vastly different from the 45% Yes got in 2014, not one single poll this year has had Yes over 50% once don't knows are included

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proposed_second_Scottish_independence_referendum#Opinion_polling
    That is not the same point though. 59% of all Brits and 74% of Scots feel the United Kingdom is weaker over 5 years. It is hard to see that reversed by BoZos Clown car crash Brexit.

    Scottish Independence now looks inevitable, the only questions are timing and how acrimonious.
    Timing: under the next Labour Prime Minister, whenever that is

    Nastiness: extreme - expect many years of vicious eye-gouging over a whole range of inflammatory problems including (in no particular order) Trident, the national debt, the currency, the reserves of the Bank of England, the contents of the British Museum, citizenship, pensions and tariff barriers. Relations will be absolutely dreadful for at least as long as it takes for everybody who was involved in the separation process on both sides to die of old age
    Yes. Scottish Independence (which I think is inevitable) will make Brexit seem like a minor family disagreement.
    I don't think it is inevitable, that would require Yes to be polling 60% plus or at least be consistently over 50% including don't knows.

    However you are correct, if as is likely we go to WTO Terms Brexit and indyref2 is allowed by Boris, which is unlikely and Yes won and Scotland rejoined the EU (or even if it did not but still left the UK internal market until a Scotland rUK or UK and EU FTA was agreed) then that would mean tariffs on all Scottish exports to England and English exports to Scotland and border checks and customs at Berwick
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 16,902

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    A curious omission from @HYUFD when posting polls:

    Yet on actual polling all the indyref2 polls this year including Don't Knows have had Yes in a range of 43% to 50%, not vastly different from the 45% Yes got in 2014, not one single poll this year has had Yes over 50% once don't knows are included

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proposed_second_Scottish_independence_referendum#Opinion_polling
    That is not the same point though. 59% of all Brits and 74% of Scots feel the United Kingdom is weaker over 5 years. It is hard to see that reversed by BoZos Clown car crash Brexit.

    Scottish Independence now looks inevitable, the only questions are timing and how acrimonious.
    Timing: under the next Labour Prime Minister, whenever that is

    Nastiness: extreme - expect many years of vicious eye-gouging over a whole range of inflammatory problems including (in no particular order) Trident, the national debt, the currency, the reserves of the Bank of England, the contents of the British Museum, citizenship, pensions and tariff barriers. Relations will be absolutely dreadful for at least as long as it takes for everybody who was involved in the separation process on both sides to die of old age
    Nah, it wasn't like that in Ireland, nor in other decolonisation.
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 907
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    nichomar said:

    nichomar said:

    OllyT said:

    kle4 said:

    I hope I am wrong but I think the enforced mask wearing will make the Covid situation worse in the UK and that in 2 weeks new cases will be over 1000 per day. If face coverings were the solution then the WHO would have recommended them back in March but they didn’t. Countries where face coverings are far more prevalent than the UK are seeing rises in cases now and I fear we will be the same. Social distancing and hand washing have worked in the UK , Deaths are below average and the number of new cases is under control. There is no need for this change and I fear it will have the opposite of the desired effect.

    You don't sound like you hope you are wrong.
    Of course I hope I’m wrong as if cases go up the government will force mask wearing every time you go outside which is the case in Spain at the moment.
    I thought a couple of PBers who actually live in Spain told you you earlier that the rise in infections in Spain were mainly coming from situations where masks were still not worn, ie clusters from nightclubs. Are you ignoring that because it doesn't fit your agenda?
    I’ll find some breakdowns tomorrow of where these outbreaks are coming from but off the top of my head

    Night bars frequented by young people
    Family gatherings at home or in restaurants

    The first infections in this wave came from meat processing plants.
    In Spain you cannot go out without a mask on, if you do you face an instant fine. On the beach when you sunbathe you can remove the mask but as soon as you stand up you must put the mask on, yet cases are on the rise. I might be naive but I don’t see these results as evidence that mask wearing works.

    Family gatherings are allowed in the uk now and pubs are open and busy yet without forced mask wearing our new cases are less than Spain.



    Don’t count your chickens
    I’m not, we will follow Spain’s lead and make mask wearing mandatory and cases will rise
    Why might wearing masks cause cases to rise?
    It doesn't. @NerysHughes is smoking crack.

    If mask wearing wasn't effective at preventing the spread disease, then surgeons wouldn't bother wearing them.
    Nice comment!
    Masks are now mandatory in Spain and news cases doubled today to 2600.
    How is that evidence that wearing masks works.
    Surgeons wear a face fitted mask which is completely different to masks the public wears. It’s like saying wearing sunglasses is the same as wearing a welders mask.
    Now, I'm normally one of the most polite poster on PB, and you have previously shown no signs of mental retardation. A correlation, on its own, is no evidence of causation.

    Has anything else happened in Spain that might have had an impact on case numbers? Like, for example, nightclubs reopening?

    There has been a very significant relaxation of the lockdown in the Uk, pubs are open, friends and families are meeting, Liverpool football fans are setting off fireworks, yet our new cases have continued a slight downward trend. Spain has bought in this new tougher mask wearing law and their cases are increasing quickly. It may just be down to. Nightclubs but aren’t masks supposed to stop the spread?

    If I am right and our cases start to increase quickly what would you blame it on ?

    Dr Mike Ryan WHO 31st March
    “ There is no specific evidence to suggest that the wearing of masks by the general population has any potential benefit, in fact there is some evidence to suggest the opposite.....”

    Even Dr Hilary agreed with him.

    I accept he is now saying something different , but that is quite a radical change of thought. Covid had been around for 3 months by the time of his original statement, and he must have based it on medical/scientific evidence.

    We will see how our case numbers are affected by the wearing of masks in two weeks as that will be the only parameter that has changed.

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 55,331
    I like that the wikipedia page for Donald Trump says he was a Democrat as recently as 2009. It seems as strange now as the realisation that Labour members used to like Tony Blair at one point.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 1,114
    Noted outlet for breaking political developments "Daily Mail TV (US Edition)" led with Governor Greg Abbot (R-Texas) ruing that he had allowed bars in Lone Star State to open prematurely.

    Interesting how many Texas GOP of late have drifted - or in some cases sprinted _ to more moderate political posture. Esp. some leading Tea Party hearties & similar right-wing-nuts facing tough re-election battles in suburban districts that are swinging like a barn door toward the Democrats.

    Governor Gregg is himself up for re-election, and is a pretty good bet to win another 4-year term. Yet it's clear that he is NOT taking that for granted. Thus is less-than-elegant back-stroking toward the middle of the pool.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 5,206
    kle4 said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    A curious omission from @HYUFD when posting polls:

    Yet on actual polling all the indyref2 polls this year including Don't Knows have had Yes in a range of 43% to 50%, not vastly different from the 45% Yes got in 2014, not one single poll this year has had Yes over 50% once don't knows are included

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proposed_second_Scottish_independence_referendum#Opinion_polling
    That is not the same point though. 59% of all Brits and 74% of Scots feel the United Kingdom is weaker over 5 years. It is hard to see that reversed by BoZos Clown car crash Brexit.

    Scottish Independence now looks inevitable, the only questions are timing and how acrimonious.
    Timing: under the next Labour Prime Minister, whenever that is

    Nastiness: extreme - expect many years of vicious eye-gouging over a whole range of inflammatory problems including (in no particular order) Trident, the national debt, the currency, the reserves of the Bank of England, the contents of the British Museum, citizenship, pensions and tariff barriers. Relations will be absolutely dreadful for at least as long as it takes for everybody who was involved in the separation process on both sides to die of old age
    It will be brutal, no question. We know that splits on such major topics will cause hateful reactions in whichever side loses.

    However, nothing is inevitable, even if the prospects look very grim, and we shouldn't pretend it is inevitable as that's just an excuse to convince people to give in.
    Technically you're correct, but in practice there's no likely end point to this process other than separation. Whoever said that Scottish devolution was a motorway to independence with no exits has been proven triumphantly right.

    Coming to terms with the end of the Union, if you're not in favour of it, is rather like coming to terms with the inevitability of your own eventual death. You don't have to like it, but it's a good idea for the sake of one's own sanity to learn to accept it.
  • Seems like either:

    Total capitulation in which we end up on a level playing field with the EU, fishing, state aid (may as well join EEA to save the economic damage)

    No Deal and the economy is fucked
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 21,660
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    nichomar said:

    nichomar said:

    OllyT said:

    kle4 said:

    I hope I am wrong but I think the enforced mask wearing will make the Covid situation worse in the UK and that in 2 weeks new cases will be over 1000 per day. If face coverings were the solution then the WHO would have recommended them back in March but they didn’t. Countries where face coverings are far more prevalent than the UK are seeing rises in cases now and I fear we will be the same. Social distancing and hand washing have worked in the UK , Deaths are below average and the number of new cases is under control. There is no need for this change and I fear it will have the opposite of the desired effect.

    You don't sound like you hope you are wrong.
    Of course I hope I’m wrong as if cases go up the government will force mask wearing every time you go outside which is the case in Spain at the moment.
    I thought a couple of PBers who actually live in Spain told you you earlier that the rise in infections in Spain were mainly coming from situations where masks were still not worn, ie clusters from nightclubs. Are you ignoring that because it doesn't fit your agenda?
    I’ll find some breakdowns tomorrow of where these outbreaks are coming from but off the top of my head

    Night bars frequented by young people
    Family gatherings at home or in restaurants

    The first infections in this wave came from meat processing plants.
    In Spain you cannot go out without a mask on, if you do you face an instant fine. On the beach when you sunbathe you can remove the mask but as soon as you stand up you must put the mask on, yet cases are on the rise. I might be naive but I don’t see these results as evidence that mask wearing works.

    Family gatherings are allowed in the uk now and pubs are open and busy yet without forced mask wearing our new cases are less than Spain.



    Don’t count your chickens
    I’m not, we will follow Spain’s lead and make mask wearing mandatory and cases will rise
    Why might wearing masks cause cases to rise?
    It doesn't. @NerysHughes is smoking crack.

    If mask wearing wasn't effective at preventing the spread disease, then surgeons wouldn't bother wearing them.
    Nice comment!
    Masks are now mandatory in Spain and news cases doubled today to 2600.
    How is that evidence that wearing masks works.
    Surgeons wear a face fitted mask which is completely different to masks the public wears. It’s like saying wearing sunglasses is the same as wearing a welders mask.
    Now, I'm normally one of the most polite poster on PB, and you have previously shown no signs of mental retardation. A correlation, on its own, is no evidence of causation.

    Has anything else happened in Spain that might have had an impact on case numbers? Like, for example, nightclubs reopening?

    One of the central tenets of the Church of the Flying Spaghetti Monster (All Hail His Noodly Appendage) is that Global Warming is caused by piracy. There is a direct statistical correlation between the increase in acts of piracy over the last century and the increase in global temperatures.

    See also the correlation between the box office take of Nicholas Cage films and people drowning by falling into swimming pools. It is uncanny and must be evidence of causation.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 1,114
    kle4 said:

    I like that the wikipedia page for Donald Trump says he was a Democrat as recently as 2009. It seems as strange now as the realisation that Labour members used to like Tony Blair at one point.

    He thought being a registered Dem helped in business. Also, generally more for registered Dems to vote for in NYS primaries than for registered Reps.

    Sir Oswald Mosely was first elected to House of Commons as a Conservative. To paraphrase a prominent (or at least prolific) PBer, it ain't where you start that counts, it's where you end up.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 74,050

    kle4 said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    A curious omission from @HYUFD when posting polls:

    Yet on actual polling all the indyref2 polls this year including Don't Knows have had Yes in a range of 43% to 50%, not vastly different from the 45% Yes got in 2014, not one single poll this year has had Yes over 50% once don't knows are included

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proposed_second_Scottish_independence_referendum#Opinion_polling
    That is not the same point though. 59% of all Brits and 74% of Scots feel the United Kingdom is weaker over 5 years. It is hard to see that reversed by BoZos Clown car crash Brexit.

    Scottish Independence now looks inevitable, the only questions are timing and how acrimonious.
    Timing: under the next Labour Prime Minister, whenever that is

    Nastiness: extreme - expect many years of vicious eye-gouging over a whole range of inflammatory problems including (in no particular order) Trident, the national debt, the currency, the reserves of the Bank of England, the contents of the British Museum, citizenship, pensions and tariff barriers. Relations will be absolutely dreadful for at least as long as it takes for everybody who was involved in the separation process on both sides to die of old age
    It will be brutal, no question. We know that splits on such major topics will cause hateful reactions in whichever side loses.

    However, nothing is inevitable, even if the prospects look very grim, and we shouldn't pretend it is inevitable as that's just an excuse to convince people to give in.
    Technically you're correct, but in practice there's no likely end point to this process other than separation. Whoever said that Scottish devolution was a motorway to independence with no exits has been proven triumphantly right.

    Coming to terms with the end of the Union, if you're not in favour of it, is rather like coming to terms with the inevitability of your own eventual death. You don't have to like it, but it's a good idea for the sake of one's own sanity to learn to accept it.
    No that is defeatist and when Yes is not over 50% in any poll including don't knows absurdly so
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 55,331

    kle4 said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    A curious omission from @HYUFD when posting polls:

    Yet on actual polling all the indyref2 polls this year including Don't Knows have had Yes in a range of 43% to 50%, not vastly different from the 45% Yes got in 2014, not one single poll this year has had Yes over 50% once don't knows are included

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proposed_second_Scottish_independence_referendum#Opinion_polling
    That is not the same point though. 59% of all Brits and 74% of Scots feel the United Kingdom is weaker over 5 years. It is hard to see that reversed by BoZos Clown car crash Brexit.

    Scottish Independence now looks inevitable, the only questions are timing and how acrimonious.
    Timing: under the next Labour Prime Minister, whenever that is

    Nastiness: extreme - expect many years of vicious eye-gouging over a whole range of inflammatory problems including (in no particular order) Trident, the national debt, the currency, the reserves of the Bank of England, the contents of the British Museum, citizenship, pensions and tariff barriers. Relations will be absolutely dreadful for at least as long as it takes for everybody who was involved in the separation process on both sides to die of old age
    It will be brutal, no question. We know that splits on such major topics will cause hateful reactions in whichever side loses.

    However, nothing is inevitable, even if the prospects look very grim, and we shouldn't pretend it is inevitable as that's just an excuse to convince people to give in.
    Technically you're correct, but in practice there's no likely end point to this process other than separation. Whoever said that Scottish devolution was a motorway to independence with no exits has been proven triumphantly right.

    Coming to terms with the end of the Union, if you're not in favour of it, is rather like coming to terms with the inevitability of your own eventual death. You don't have to like it, but it's a good idea for the sake of one's own sanity to learn to accept it.
    As I said, and well exampled there, an excuse to get people to give in. I have certainly accepted the prospect and indeed likelihood of it, and it makes me sad, but claiming anything like that is inevitable is nothing but arrogance designed to suggest those who resist are in some way deluded, rather than simply in disagreement. It casts resistors in the role of the irrational not just opponents.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 7,372

    IshmaelZ said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    nichomar said:

    nichomar said:

    OllyT said:

    kle4 said:

    I hope I am wrong but I think the enforced mask wearing will make the Covid situation worse in the UK and that in 2 weeks new cases will be over 1000 per day. If face coverings were the solution then the WHO would have recommended them back in March but they didn’t. Countries where face coverings are far more prevalent than the UK are seeing rises in cases now and I fear we will be the same. Social distancing and hand washing have worked in the UK , Deaths are below average and the number of new cases is under control. There is no need for this change and I fear it will have the opposite of the desired effect.

    You don't sound like you hope you are wrong.
    Of course I hope I’m wrong as if cases go up the government will force mask wearing every time you go outside which is the case in Spain at the moment.
    I thought a couple of PBers who actually live in Spain told you you earlier that the rise in infections in Spain were mainly coming from situations where masks were still not worn, ie clusters from nightclubs. Are you ignoring that because it doesn't fit your agenda?
    I’ll find some breakdowns tomorrow of where these outbreaks are coming from but off the top of my head

    Night bars frequented by young people
    Family gatherings at home or in restaurants

    The first infections in this wave came from meat processing plants.
    In Spain you cannot go out without a mask on, if you do you face an instant fine. On the beach when you sunbathe you can remove the mask but as soon as you stand up you must put the mask on, yet cases are on the rise. I might be naive but I don’t see these results as evidence that mask wearing works.

    Family gatherings are allowed in the uk now and pubs are open and busy yet without forced mask wearing our new cases are less than Spain.



    Don’t count your chickens
    I’m not, we will follow Spain’s lead and make mask wearing mandatory and cases will rise
    Why might wearing masks cause cases to rise?
    It doesn't. @NerysHughes is smoking crack.

    If mask wearing wasn't effective at preventing the spread disease, then surgeons wouldn't bother wearing them.
    Nice comment!
    Masks are now mandatory in Spain and news cases doubled today to 2600.
    How is that evidence that wearing masks works.
    Surgeons wear a face fitted mask which is completely different to masks the public wears. It’s like saying wearing sunglasses is the same as wearing a welders mask.
    Now, I'm normally one of the most polite poster on PB, and you have previously shown no signs of mental retardation. A correlation, on its own, is no evidence of causation.

    Has anything else happened in Spain that might have had an impact on case numbers? Like, for example, nightclubs reopening?

    Have you noticed how the more people put up umbrellas, the more heavily it rains? It's the same effect.
    Here is Seattle, the umbrella is the badge of the Outlander. Few native-born "mossbacks" own one, and newcomers soon learn to keep the one they brought with them in the closet.

    There WAS an umbrella store in downtown Seattle for a few years. Went out of business about a year ago, the owner (originally from out of state) thought it would be a natural hit. Turned out the only business she got was from tourists.
    As a native of Lancashire I have never carried an umbrella. Few do. I found the Pacific Northwest a most familiar climate. A tad warm.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 74,050

    Seems like either:

    Total capitulation in which we end up on a level playing field with the EU, fishing, state aid (may as well join EEA to save the economic damage)

    No Deal and the economy is fucked

    A UK and EU FTA would still allow us to end free movement and do our own trade deals unlike EEA but it would require the same regulatory alignment as EEA
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 16,902

    Seems like either:

    Total capitulation in which we end up on a level playing field with the EU, fishing, state aid (may as well join EEA to save the economic damage)

    No Deal and the economy is fucked

    My money is on No Deal (actually minimal deal) but the economy won't be fucked, just some sectors.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 1,114
    TimT said:

    FPT - Politico.com:

    Kimberly Guilfoyle under fire for Trump fundraising disarray

    Interviews depict an operation beset by departures, staffers with no prior fundraising experience and accusations of irresponsible spending.

    FYI, Ms Guilfoyle is Don Jr's girlfriend (lucky lady!) who tested positive for you-know-what during 4th of July Trumpsky desecration of Mount Rushmore. She is in charge of small-to-medium donor FR, a category in which Uncle Joe has been eating Trumpsky's lunch (yet another sign that "enthusiasm" for The Donald is NOT all it's cracked up to be).

    On that occasion, members of her staff were stranded in Rapid City ,SD under quarantine. Turns out being in the Heartland freaked these dweebles out.

    "There are also questions about spending. In March, two staffers chose not to fly commercial and instead took the private jet of a major Trump donor to the president’s Mar-a-Lago resort for a finance event. The campaign had to reimburse the roughly $25,000 cost."

    I can attest to the lack of targeting of this effort.

    Not only am I getting incessant Trump begging emails, but I am getting them from every f***ing Republican in every race in every state. Despite the fact that I politely reply to each and every such email with "F**k off, Trump needs to be imprisoned for his crimes against the USA, and every GOP member of Congress has been complicit."
    They've got you down as "maybe"
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 223
    IshmaelZ said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    nichomar said:

    nichomar said:

    OllyT said:

    kle4 said:

    I hope I am wrong but I think the enforced mask wearing will make the Covid situation worse in the UK and that in 2 weeks new cases will be over 1000 per day. If face coverings were the solution then the WHO would have recommended them back in March but they didn’t. Countries where face coverings are far more prevalent than the UK are seeing rises in cases now and I fear we will be the same. Social distancing and hand washing have worked in the UK , Deaths are below average and the number of new cases is under control. There is no need for this change and I fear it will have the opposite of the desired effect.

    You don't sound like you hope you are wrong.
    Of course I hope I’m wrong as if cases go up the government will force mask wearing every time you go outside which is the case in Spain at the moment.
    I thought a couple of PBers who actually live in Spain told you you earlier that the rise in infections in Spain were mainly coming from situations where masks were still not worn, ie clusters from nightclubs. Are you ignoring that because it doesn't fit your agenda?
    I’ll find some breakdowns tomorrow of where these outbreaks are coming from but off the top of my head

    Night bars frequented by young people
    Family gatherings at home or in restaurants

    The first infections in this wave came from meat processing plants.
    In Spain you cannot go out without a mask on, if you do you face an instant fine. On the beach when you sunbathe you can remove the mask but as soon as you stand up you must put the mask on, yet cases are on the rise. I might be naive but I don’t see these results as evidence that mask wearing works.

    Family gatherings are allowed in the uk now and pubs are open and busy yet without forced mask wearing our new cases are less than Spain.



    Don’t count your chickens
    I’m not, we will follow Spain’s lead and make mask wearing mandatory and cases will rise
    Why might wearing masks cause cases to rise?
    It doesn't. @NerysHughes is smoking crack.

    If mask wearing wasn't effective at preventing the spread disease, then surgeons wouldn't bother wearing them.
    Nice comment!
    Masks are now mandatory in Spain and news cases doubled today to 2600.
    How is that evidence that wearing masks works.
    Surgeons wear a face fitted mask which is completely different to masks the public wears. It’s like saying wearing sunglasses is the same as wearing a welders mask.
    Now, I'm normally one of the most polite poster on PB, and you have previously shown no signs of mental retardation. A correlation, on its own, is no evidence of causation.

    Has anything else happened in Spain that might have had an impact on case numbers? Like, for example, nightclubs reopening?

    Have you noticed how the more people put up umbrellas, the more heavily it rains? It's the same effect.
    Yes, but if everybody put their umbrellas down, it would stop raining, obviously.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 21,105
    It would if your name wasn't Matthew Goodwin.
  • HYUFD said:

    Seems like either:

    Total capitulation in which we end up on a level playing field with the EU, fishing, state aid (may as well join EEA to save the economic damage)

    No Deal and the economy is fucked

    A UK and EU FTA would still allow us to end free movement and do our own trade deals unlike EEA but it would require the same regulatory alignment as EEA
    Trashes the economy though and we get no say over the rules we have to align with
  • Foxy said:

    Seems like either:

    Total capitulation in which we end up on a level playing field with the EU, fishing, state aid (may as well join EEA to save the economic damage)

    No Deal and the economy is fucked

    My money is on No Deal (actually minimal deal) but the economy won't be fucked, just some sectors.
    Which sectors do you imagine?
  • TimTTimT Posts: 934

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    nichomar said:

    nichomar said:

    OllyT said:

    kle4 said:

    I hope I am wrong but I think the enforced mask wearing will make the Covid situation worse in the UK and that in 2 weeks new cases will be over 1000 per day. If face coverings were the solution then the WHO would have recommended them back in March but they didn’t. Countries where face coverings are far more prevalent than the UK are seeing rises in cases now and I fear we will be the same. Social distancing and hand washing have worked in the UK , Deaths are below average and the number of new cases is under control. There is no need for this change and I fear it will have the opposite of the desired effect.

    You don't sound like you hope you are wrong.
    Of course I hope I’m wrong as if cases go up the government will force mask wearing every time you go outside which is the case in Spain at the moment.
    I thought a couple of PBers who actually live in Spain told you you earlier that the rise in infections in Spain were mainly coming from situations where masks were still not worn, ie clusters from nightclubs. Are you ignoring that because it doesn't fit your agenda?
    I’ll find some breakdowns tomorrow of where these outbreaks are coming from but off the top of my head

    Night bars frequented by young people
    Family gatherings at home or in restaurants

    The first infections in this wave came from meat processing plants.
    In Spain you cannot go out without a mask on, if you do you face an instant fine. On the beach when you sunbathe you can remove the mask but as soon as you stand up you must put the mask on, yet cases are on the rise. I might be naive but I don’t see these results as evidence that mask wearing works.

    Family gatherings are allowed in the uk now and pubs are open and busy yet without forced mask wearing our new cases are less than Spain.



    Don’t count your chickens
    I’m not, we will follow Spain’s lead and make mask wearing mandatory and cases will rise
    Why might wearing masks cause cases to rise?
    It doesn't. @NerysHughes is smoking crack.

    If mask wearing wasn't effective at preventing the spread disease, then surgeons wouldn't bother wearing them.
    Nice comment!
    Masks are now mandatory in Spain and news cases doubled today to 2600.
    How is that evidence that wearing masks works.
    Surgeons wear a face fitted mask which is completely different to masks the public wears. It’s like saying wearing sunglasses is the same as wearing a welders mask.
    Now, I'm normally one of the most polite poster on PB, and you have previously shown no signs of mental retardation. A correlation, on its own, is no evidence of causation.

    Has anything else happened in Spain that might have had an impact on case numbers? Like, for example, nightclubs reopening?

    There has been a very significant relaxation of the lockdown in the Uk, pubs are open, friends and families are meeting, Liverpool football fans are setting off fireworks, yet our new cases have continued a slight downward trend. Spain has bought in this new tougher mask wearing law and their cases are increasing quickly. It may just be down to. Nightclubs but aren’t masks supposed to stop the spread?

    If I am right and our cases start to increase quickly what would you blame it on ?

    Dr Mike Ryan WHO 31st March
    “ There is no specific evidence to suggest that the wearing of masks by the general population has any potential benefit, in fact there is some evidence to suggest the opposite.....”

    Even Dr Hilary agreed with him.

    I accept he is now saying something different , but that is quite a radical change of thought. Covid had been around for 3 months by the time of his original statement, and he must have based it on medical/scientific evidence.

    We will see how our case numbers are affected by the wearing of masks in two weeks as that will be the only parameter that has changed.

    Part of the reason for the change in advice from the likes of the WHO is that there is a lot more scientific evidence in now on the efficacy of masks.

    Previous data, such that there was, had little to do with the effect of wearing masks in public - the prior research was on their effectiveness in healthcare settings on protecting the patient (not the medical person - i.e. their effectiveness in infection control), or in their effectiveness in laboratories handling pathogens (controlled settings with high consequences). The data, frankly, was quite poor and limited, and focussed on people who would wear masks for long periods in high risk environments. But it was the only data available, and the WHO and other public health officials had to extrapolate from it.

    Looking at some specifics:

    - If you wear masks for long periods, masks can become saturated and become aerosol generators, hence the early assumption that the public wearing them might be bad. But the public tends to put them on and take them off more frequently then medical personnel or laboratorians, so the point about saturation is for the most part moot.

    - In lab settings, the key thing is 100% prevention, so partial protection is dangerous. In pandemic control, any % reduction in the spread is helpful, provided false perceptions don't lead to risky behaviours.

    - The old data on mask-wearing and disease was generic. Now we have newer, better data on the effect of wearing different types of masks specifically on the spread of COVID, not disease in general.

    I think all of this goes to explain why a change in advice is following the science.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 74,050
    edited July 23

    HYUFD said:

    Seems like either:

    Total capitulation in which we end up on a level playing field with the EU, fishing, state aid (may as well join EEA to save the economic damage)

    No Deal and the economy is fucked

    A UK and EU FTA would still allow us to end free movement and do our own trade deals unlike EEA but it would require the same regulatory alignment as EEA
    Trashes the economy though and we get no say over the rules we have to align with
    A FTA does not trash the economy, certainly not compared to WTO terms and it still meets the core reasons Brexit won ie to end free movement, leave the EU and do our own trade deals
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 55,331
    edited July 23
    Jesus, that's the the best they could come up with?

    Washington's NFL team will be called the "Washington Football Team" during the 2020 season.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/american-football/53520772

    I get dropping the Redskins bit, but was it really impossible to have a placeholder name while they go through the process of choosing a new name and logo for the long term? Even the Washington Blandathons would be better.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 16,902

    Foxy said:

    Seems like either:

    Total capitulation in which we end up on a level playing field with the EU, fishing, state aid (may as well join EEA to save the economic damage)

    No Deal and the economy is fucked

    My money is on No Deal (actually minimal deal) but the economy won't be fucked, just some sectors.
    Which sectors do you imagine?
    Export oriented agriculture and fisheries, manufacturing in particular.
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Seems like either:

    Total capitulation in which we end up on a level playing field with the EU, fishing, state aid (may as well join EEA to save the economic damage)

    No Deal and the economy is fucked

    A UK and EU FTA would still allow us to end free movement and do our own trade deals unlike EEA but it would require the same regulatory alignment as EEA
    Trashes the economy though and we get no say over the rules we have to align with
    A FTA does not trash the economy, certainly not compared to WTO terms and it still meets the core reasons Brexit won ie to end free movement, leave the EU and do our own trade deals
    The Government's own analysis concluded a FTA would damage the economy
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 2,687
    edited July 23
    kle4 said:

    It will be brutal, no question. We know that splits on such major topics will cause hateful reactions in whichever side loses.

    The Czechs and the Slovaks split very amicably. They even maintained FOM with each other pre-Schengen.

  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 3,883
    edited July 23

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    nichomar said:

    nichomar said:

    OllyT said:

    kle4 said:

    I hope I am wrong but I think the enforced mask wearing will make the Covid situation worse in the UK and that in 2 weeks new cases will be over 1000 per day. If face coverings were the solution then the WHO would have recommended them back in March but they didn’t. Countries where face coverings are far more prevalent than the UK are seeing rises in cases now and I fear we will be the same. Social distancing and hand washing have worked in the UK , Deaths are below average and the number of new cases is under control. There is no need for this change and I fear it will have the opposite of the desired effect.

    You don't sound like you hope you are wrong.
    Of course I hope I’m wrong as if cases go up the government will force mask wearing every time you go outside which is the case in Spain at the moment.
    I thought a couple of PBers who actually live in Spain told you you earlier that the rise in infections in Spain were mainly coming from situations where masks were still not worn, ie clusters from nightclubs. Are you ignoring that because it doesn't fit your agenda?
    I’ll find some breakdowns tomorrow of where these outbreaks are coming from but off the top of my head

    Night bars frequented by young people
    Family gatherings at home or in restaurants

    The first infections in this wave came from meat processing plants.
    In Spain you cannot go out without a mask on, if you do you face an instant fine. On the beach when you sunbathe you can remove the mask but as soon as you stand up you must put the mask on, yet cases are on the rise. I might be naive but I don’t see these results as evidence that mask wearing works.

    Family gatherings are allowed in the uk now and pubs are open and busy yet without forced mask wearing our new cases are less than Spain.



    Don’t count your chickens
    I’m not, we will follow Spain’s lead and make mask wearing mandatory and cases will rise
    Why might wearing masks cause cases to rise?
    It doesn't. @NerysHughes is smoking crack.

    If mask wearing wasn't effective at preventing the spread disease, then surgeons wouldn't bother wearing them.
    Nice comment!
    Masks are now mandatory in Spain and news cases doubled today to 2600.
    How is that evidence that wearing masks works.
    Surgeons wear a face fitted mask which is completely different to masks the public wears. It’s like saying wearing sunglasses is the same as wearing a welders mask.
    Now, I'm normally one of the most polite poster on PB, and you have previously shown no signs of mental retardation. A correlation, on its own, is no evidence of causation.

    Has anything else happened in Spain that might have had an impact on case numbers? Like, for example, nightclubs reopening?

    There has been a very significant relaxation of the lockdown in the Uk, pubs are open, friends and families are meeting, Liverpool football fans are setting off fireworks, yet our new cases have continued a slight downward trend. Spain has bought in this new tougher mask wearing law and their cases are increasing quickly. It may just be down to. Nightclubs but aren’t masks supposed to stop the spread?

    If I am right and our cases start to increase quickly what would you blame it on ?

    Dr Mike Ryan WHO 31st March
    “ There is no specific evidence to suggest that the wearing of masks by the general population has any potential benefit, in fact there is some evidence to suggest the opposite.....”

    Even Dr Hilary agreed with him.

    I accept he is now saying something different , but that is quite a radical change of thought. Covid had been around for 3 months by the time of his original statement, and he must have based it on medical/scientific evidence.

    We will see how our case numbers are affected by the wearing of masks in two weeks as that will be the only parameter that has changed.

    Information about the virus is getting better, views on masks have changed, That is precisely why Hilary and the WHO and our government has changed the advice.

    Mandatory mask wearing is far from the only parameter that will have changed. People have just started travelling again in big numbers, airports far busier, UK tourists destinations busy, official school holidays have started, gyms, swimming pools will be opening up. Blaming any increase that happens on the fact that the government has now told people to wear masks is bonkers frankly.
  • Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Seems like either:

    Total capitulation in which we end up on a level playing field with the EU, fishing, state aid (may as well join EEA to save the economic damage)

    No Deal and the economy is fucked

    My money is on No Deal (actually minimal deal) but the economy won't be fucked, just some sectors.
    Which sectors do you imagine?
    Export oriented agriculture and fisheries, manufacturing in particular.
    The Northern seats will love that
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 3,750

    TimT said:

    FPT - Politico.com:

    Kimberly Guilfoyle under fire for Trump fundraising disarray

    Interviews depict an operation beset by departures, staffers with no prior fundraising experience and accusations of irresponsible spending.

    FYI, Ms Guilfoyle is Don Jr's girlfriend (lucky lady!) who tested positive for you-know-what during 4th of July Trumpsky desecration of Mount Rushmore. She is in charge of small-to-medium donor FR, a category in which Uncle Joe has been eating Trumpsky's lunch (yet another sign that "enthusiasm" for The Donald is NOT all it's cracked up to be).

    On that occasion, members of her staff were stranded in Rapid City ,SD under quarantine. Turns out being in the Heartland freaked these dweebles out.

    "There are also questions about spending. In March, two staffers chose not to fly commercial and instead took the private jet of a major Trump donor to the president’s Mar-a-Lago resort for a finance event. The campaign had to reimburse the roughly $25,000 cost."

    I can attest to the lack of targeting of this effort.

    Not only am I getting incessant Trump begging emails, but I am getting them from every f***ing Republican in every race in every state. Despite the fact that I politely reply to each and every such email with "F**k off, Trump needs to be imprisoned for his crimes against the USA, and every GOP member of Congress has been complicit."
    They've got you down as "maybe"
    They've got him down as replying to their emails.
  • Anti-wokeism is a minority support, indeed only 37% of voters support it.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 37,085

    HYUFD said:

    Seems like either:

    Total capitulation in which we end up on a level playing field with the EU, fishing, state aid (may as well join EEA to save the economic damage)

    No Deal and the economy is fucked

    A UK and EU FTA would still allow us to end free movement and do our own trade deals unlike EEA but it would require the same regulatory alignment as EEA
    Trashes the economy though and we get no say over the rules we have to align with
    You don't align rules in an FTA. That's the whole point of going for that.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 1,114
    kle4 said:

    Jesus, that's the the best they could come up with?

    Washington's NFL team will be called the "Washington Football Team" during the 2020 season.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/american-football/53520772

    I get dropping the Redskins bit, but was it really impossible to have a placeholder name while they go through the process of choosing a new name and logo for the long term? Even the Washington Blandathons would be better.

    Seattle's new National Hockey League franchise just announced the new team's name: The Kracken.

    This was favorite with many locals, serious hockey fanatics as well as normal, decent folk.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 55,331
    rpjs said:

    kle4 said:

    It will be brutal, no question. We know that splits on such major topics will cause hateful reactions in whichever side loses.

    The Czechs and the Slovaks split very amicably. They even maintained FOM with each other pre-Schengen.

    I'm basing it on the recent experience of this country over Brexit, which is likely a better indicator than that amicable split.
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 2,687
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    A curious omission from @HYUFD when posting polls:

    Yet on actual polling all the indyref2 polls this year including Don't Knows have had Yes in a range of 43% to 50%, not vastly different from the 45% Yes got in 2014, not one single poll this year has had Yes over 50% once don't knows are included

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proposed_second_Scottish_independence_referendum#Opinion_polling
    That is not the same point though. 59% of all Brits and 74% of Scots feel the United Kingdom is weaker over 5 years. It is hard to see that reversed by BoZos Clown car crash Brexit.

    Scottish Independence now looks inevitable, the only questions are timing and how acrimonious.
    Timing: under the next Labour Prime Minister, whenever that is

    Nastiness: extreme - expect many years of vicious eye-gouging over a whole range of inflammatory problems including (in no particular order) Trident, the national debt, the currency, the reserves of the Bank of England, the contents of the British Museum, citizenship, pensions and tariff barriers. Relations will be absolutely dreadful for at least as long as it takes for everybody who was involved in the separation process on both sides to die of old age
    Nah, it wasn't like that in Ireland, nor in other decolonisation.
    There was a trade war between the rUK and the IFS/Eire pretty much the length of the inter-war period.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 16,902

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Seems like either:

    Total capitulation in which we end up on a level playing field with the EU, fishing, state aid (may as well join EEA to save the economic damage)

    No Deal and the economy is fucked

    My money is on No Deal (actually minimal deal) but the economy won't be fucked, just some sectors.
    Which sectors do you imagine?
    Export oriented agriculture and fisheries, manufacturing in particular.
    The Northern seats will love that
    They made their bed and have to lie in it.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 74,050

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Seems like either:

    Total capitulation in which we end up on a level playing field with the EU, fishing, state aid (may as well join EEA to save the economic damage)

    No Deal and the economy is fucked

    A UK and EU FTA would still allow us to end free movement and do our own trade deals unlike EEA but it would require the same regulatory alignment as EEA
    Trashes the economy though and we get no say over the rules we have to align with
    A FTA does not trash the economy, certainly not compared to WTO terms and it still meets the core reasons Brexit won ie to end free movement, leave the EU and do our own trade deals
    The Government's own analysis concluded a FTA would damage the economy
    That analysis also concluded the mere act of voting Leave and leaving the EU would damage the economy
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 26,232
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Seems like either:

    Total capitulation in which we end up on a level playing field with the EU, fishing, state aid (may as well join EEA to save the economic damage)

    No Deal and the economy is fucked

    A UK and EU FTA would still allow us to end free movement and do our own trade deals unlike EEA but it would require the same regulatory alignment as EEA
    Trashes the economy though and we get no say over the rules we have to align with
    A FTA does not trash the economy, certainly not compared to WTO terms and it still meets the core reasons Brexit won ie to end free movement, leave the EU and do our own trade deals
    The Government's own analysis concluded a FTA would damage the economy
    That analysis also concluded the mere act of voting Leave and leaving the EU would damage the economy
    Which was correct.
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Seems like either:

    Total capitulation in which we end up on a level playing field with the EU, fishing, state aid (may as well join EEA to save the economic damage)

    No Deal and the economy is fucked

    A UK and EU FTA would still allow us to end free movement and do our own trade deals unlike EEA but it would require the same regulatory alignment as EEA
    Trashes the economy though and we get no say over the rules we have to align with
    A FTA does not trash the economy, certainly not compared to WTO terms and it still meets the core reasons Brexit won ie to end free movement, leave the EU and do our own trade deals
    The Government's own analysis concluded a FTA would damage the economy
    That analysis also concluded the mere act of voting Leave and leaving the EU would damage the economy
    Indeed - but EEA would do a lot less damage, so a sensible Government would mitigate it. But we don't have one.

    Of course I supported Remain so the blood isn't on my hands.

    Therefore I support EEA as it's the only sensible option left
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 37,085
    kle4 said:

    Jesus, that's the the best they could come up with?

    Washington's NFL team will be called the "Washington Football Team" during the 2020 season.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/american-football/53520772

    I get dropping the Redskins bit, but was it really impossible to have a placeholder name while they go through the process of choosing a new name and logo for the long term? Even the Washington Blandathons would be better.

    What is wrong with Washington Football Team?

    Liverpool Football Club don't feel the need to put another name after Liverpool. Plus any placeholder would be pressured to become the permanent new name, they'd end up with as many names as leaders of the Lib Dems in recent years.
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 2,687

    kle4 said:

    I like that the wikipedia page for Donald Trump says he was a Democrat as recently as 2009. It seems as strange now as the realisation that Labour members used to like Tony Blair at one point.

    He thought being a registered Dem helped in business. Also, generally more for registered Dems to vote for in NYS primaries than for registered Reps
    Probably a legacy of Fred Trump Sr's close connections with the old Democratic machine that helped him land a bunch of urban renewal contracts in the 40s and 50s.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 1,114

    Anti-wokeism is a minority support, indeed only 37% of voters support it.

    What % thought "wokeism" means being awake on the job?

    OR maybe being woke up when you least expect it, as when the boss catches you taking your post-luncheon nap?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 74,050
    edited July 23
    rpjs said:

    kle4 said:

    It will be brutal, no question. We know that splits on such major topics will cause hateful reactions in whichever side loses.

    The Czechs and the Slovaks split very amicably. They even maintained FOM with each other pre-Schengen.

    They created a customs union between them until they both joined the EU and single market and customs union in 2004, removing all trade barriers remaining.
    However independence after a WTO terms Brexit with Scotland joining the EU means no customs union and no single market between Scotland and England and inevitably means tariffs on Scottish exports to England and visa versa and customs checks and border controls at Berwick
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 223

    It would if your name wasn't Matthew Goodwin.
    I used to think that Goodwin was an interesting, impartial, academic observer worth listening to. But, especially on Twitter, I've stopped listening because, rather like some on here, he has become selective in his use of evidence to support his partisan views (which have become much more noticeable over the last year).
  • Anti-wokeism is a minority support, indeed only 37% of voters support it.

    What % thought "wokeism" means being awake on the job?

    OR maybe being woke up when you least expect it, as when the boss catches you taking your post-luncheon nap?
    No you don't get to ask these questions, you take my word as final, that's the Matthew Goodwin way
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 55,331

    kle4 said:

    Jesus, that's the the best they could come up with?

    Washington's NFL team will be called the "Washington Football Team" during the 2020 season.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/american-football/53520772

    I get dropping the Redskins bit, but was it really impossible to have a placeholder name while they go through the process of choosing a new name and logo for the long term? Even the Washington Blandathons would be better.

    What is wrong with Washington Football Team?

    Liverpool Football Club don't feel the need to put another name after Liverpool. Plus any placeholder would be pressured to become the permanent new name, they'd end up with as many names as leaders of the Lib Dems in recent years.
    Different leagues, different sports. It works fine for Premier League teams as it is not uncommon, but in a league where most if not all are the [Place] [somethings], it is very bland.
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 2,687
    kle4 said:

    rpjs said:

    kle4 said:

    It will be brutal, no question. We know that splits on such major topics will cause hateful reactions in whichever side loses.

    The Czechs and the Slovaks split very amicably. They even maintained FOM with each other pre-Schengen.

    I'm basing it on the recent experience of this country over Brexit, which is likely a better indicator than that amicable split.
    Yeah well, Vova wasn't Prez of Russia quite yet then, and there was no social media for him to unleash troll armies upon.
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 2,273
    kle4 said:

    Jesus, that's the the best they could come up with?

    Washington's NFL team will be called the "Washington Football Team" during the 2020 season.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/american-football/53520772

    I get dropping the Redskins bit, but was it really impossible to have a placeholder name while they go through the process of choosing a new name and logo for the long term? Even the Washington Blandathons would be better.

    If they had to change their name (and not convinced they did) then Washington Football Team is fine - distinctly normal and non-american like! Lot more British in tone
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 26,232
    What a shame. Maybe that long-awaited realignment of British politics might come about in an unexpected way:

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 31,658

    IshmaelZ said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    nichomar said:

    nichomar said:

    OllyT said:

    kle4 said:

    I hope I am wrong but I think the enforced mask wearing will make the Covid situation worse in the UK and that in 2 weeks new cases will be over 1000 per day. If face coverings were the solution then the WHO would have recommended them back in March but they didn’t. Countries where face coverings are far more prevalent than the UK are seeing rises in cases now and I fear we will be the same. Social distancing and hand washing have worked in the UK , Deaths are below average and the number of new cases is under control. There is no need for this change and I fear it will have the opposite of the desired effect.

    You don't sound like you hope you are wrong.
    Of course I hope I’m wrong as if cases go up the government will force mask wearing every time you go outside which is the case in Spain at the moment.
    I thought a couple of PBers who actually live in Spain told you you earlier that the rise in infections in Spain were mainly coming from situations where masks were still not worn, ie clusters from nightclubs. Are you ignoring that because it doesn't fit your agenda?
    I’ll find some breakdowns tomorrow of where these outbreaks are coming from but off the top of my head

    Night bars frequented by young people
    Family gatherings at home or in restaurants

    The first infections in this wave came from meat processing plants.
    In Spain you cannot go out without a mask on, if you do you face an instant fine. On the beach when you sunbathe you can remove the mask but as soon as you stand up you must put the mask on, yet cases are on the rise. I might be naive but I don’t see these results as evidence that mask wearing works.

    Family gatherings are allowed in the uk now and pubs are open and busy yet without forced mask wearing our new cases are less than Spain.



    Don’t count your chickens
    I’m not, we will follow Spain’s lead and make mask wearing mandatory and cases will rise
    Why might wearing masks cause cases to rise?
    It doesn't. @NerysHughes is smoking crack.

    If mask wearing wasn't effective at preventing the spread disease, then surgeons wouldn't bother wearing them.
    Nice comment!
    Masks are now mandatory in Spain and news cases doubled today to 2600.
    How is that evidence that wearing masks works.
    Surgeons wear a face fitted mask which is completely different to masks the public wears. It’s like saying wearing sunglasses is the same as wearing a welders mask.
    Now, I'm normally one of the most polite poster on PB, and you have previously shown no signs of mental retardation. A correlation, on its own, is no evidence of causation.

    Has anything else happened in Spain that might have had an impact on case numbers? Like, for example, nightclubs reopening?

    Have you noticed how the more people put up umbrellas, the more heavily it rains? It's the same effect.
    Yes, but if everybody put their umbrellas down, it would stop raining, obviously.
    Doesn’t work at the cricket.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 1,114
    dixiedean said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    nichomar said:

    nichomar said:

    OllyT said:

    kle4 said:

    I hope I am wrong but I think the enforced mask wearing will make the Covid situation worse in the UK and that in 2 weeks new cases will be over 1000 per day. If face coverings were the solution then the WHO would have recommended them back in March but they didn’t. Countries where face coverings are far more prevalent than the UK are seeing rises in cases now and I fear we will be the same. Social distancing and hand washing have worked in the UK , Deaths are below average and the number of new cases is under control. There is no need for this change and I fear it will have the opposite of the desired effect.

    You don't sound like you hope you are wrong.
    Of course I hope I’m wrong as if cases go up the government will force mask wearing every time you go outside which is the case in Spain at the moment.
    I thought a couple of PBers who actually live in Spain told you you earlier that the rise in infections in Spain were mainly coming from situations where masks were still not worn, ie clusters from nightclubs. Are you ignoring that because it doesn't fit your agenda?
    I’ll find some breakdowns tomorrow of where these outbreaks are coming from but off the top of my head

    Night bars frequented by young people
    Family gatherings at home or in restaurants

    The first infections in this wave came from meat processing plants.
    In Spain you cannot go out without a mask on, if you do you face an instant fine. On the beach when you sunbathe you can remove the mask but as soon as you stand up you must put the mask on, yet cases are on the rise. I might be naive but I don’t see these results as evidence that mask wearing works.

    Family gatherings are allowed in the uk now and pubs are open and busy yet without forced mask wearing our new cases are less than Spain.



    Don’t count your chickens
    I’m not, we will follow Spain’s lead and make mask wearing mandatory and cases will rise
    Why might wearing masks cause cases to rise?
    It doesn't. @NerysHughes is smoking crack.

    If mask wearing wasn't effective at preventing the spread disease, then surgeons wouldn't bother wearing them.
    Nice comment!
    Masks are now mandatory in Spain and news cases doubled today to 2600.
    How is that evidence that wearing masks works.
    Surgeons wear a face fitted mask which is completely different to masks the public wears. It’s like saying wearing sunglasses is the same as wearing a welders mask.
    Now, I'm normally one of the most polite poster on PB, and you have previously shown no signs of mental retardation. A correlation, on its own, is no evidence of causation.

    Has anything else happened in Spain that might have had an impact on case numbers? Like, for example, nightclubs reopening?

    Have you noticed how the more people put up umbrellas, the more heavily it rains? It's the same effect.
    Here is Seattle, the umbrella is the badge of the Outlander. Few native-born "mossbacks" own one, and newcomers soon learn to keep the one they brought with them in the closet.

    There WAS an umbrella store in downtown Seattle for a few years. Went out of business about a year ago, the owner (originally from out of state) thought it would be a natural hit. Turned out the only business she got was from tourists.
    As a native of Lancashire I have never carried an umbrella. Few do. I found the Pacific Northwest a most familiar climate. A tad warm.
    Weather in Seattle, Vancouver & rest of coastal Pacific Northwest is indeed very similar to Ireland, Wales & north of England. Sunnier and slightly warmer summer & winter.

    Of course we do NOT correct outsiders (esp out-of-work cousins & Californicators) when they go on about how it always rains in Seattle. "Yeah," we say, "rains like hell - you probably wouldn't like it."
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 5,206
    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    A curious omission from @HYUFD when posting polls:

    Yet on actual polling all the indyref2 polls this year including Don't Knows have had Yes in a range of 43% to 50%, not vastly different from the 45% Yes got in 2014, not one single poll this year has had Yes over 50% once don't knows are included

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proposed_second_Scottish_independence_referendum#Opinion_polling
    That is not the same point though. 59% of all Brits and 74% of Scots feel the United Kingdom is weaker over 5 years. It is hard to see that reversed by BoZos Clown car crash Brexit.

    Scottish Independence now looks inevitable, the only questions are timing and how acrimonious.
    Timing: under the next Labour Prime Minister, whenever that is

    Nastiness: extreme - expect many years of vicious eye-gouging over a whole range of inflammatory problems including (in no particular order) Trident, the national debt, the currency, the reserves of the Bank of England, the contents of the British Museum, citizenship, pensions and tariff barriers. Relations will be absolutely dreadful for at least as long as it takes for everybody who was involved in the separation process on both sides to die of old age
    It will be brutal, no question. We know that splits on such major topics will cause hateful reactions in whichever side loses.

    However, nothing is inevitable, even if the prospects look very grim, and we shouldn't pretend it is inevitable as that's just an excuse to convince people to give in.
    Technically you're correct, but in practice there's no likely end point to this process other than separation. Whoever said that Scottish devolution was a motorway to independence with no exits has been proven triumphantly right.

    Coming to terms with the end of the Union, if you're not in favour of it, is rather like coming to terms with the inevitability of your own eventual death. You don't have to like it, but it's a good idea for the sake of one's own sanity to learn to accept it.
    As I said, and well exampled there, an excuse to get people to give in. I have certainly accepted the prospect and indeed likelihood of it, and it makes me sad, but claiming anything like that is inevitable is nothing but arrogance designed to suggest those who resist are in some way deluded, rather than simply in disagreement. It casts resistors in the role of the irrational not just opponents.
    I don't think that's necessarily true. If you really care about something then, depending upon the circumstances, it may be entirely laudable to fight for it even absent any realistic prospect of success.
    HYUFD said:

    No that is defeatist and when Yes is not over 50% in any poll including don't knows absurdly so

    There's a world of difference between defeatism and realism. The First Minister is going to win a thumping majority in the Scottish Parliament next year, after which resistance to the second referendum - even if Johnson feels he can brazen it out under such circumstances - will only last for as long as the Conservative Government does. After that, you're facing a vote which has been delayed for years courtesy of obstruction by English Tory MPs, with an electorate in which many elderly Unionists have passed away and been replaced by pro-independence youth. It's over.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 55,331

    kle4 said:

    Jesus, that's the the best they could come up with?

    Washington's NFL team will be called the "Washington Football Team" during the 2020 season.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/american-football/53520772

    I get dropping the Redskins bit, but was it really impossible to have a placeholder name while they go through the process of choosing a new name and logo for the long term? Even the Washington Blandathons would be better.

    Seattle's new National Hockey League franchise just announced the new team's name: The Kracken.

    This was favorite with many locals, serious hockey fanatics as well as normal, decent folk.
    That is a good name. I'd be content if Liverpool changed their name to the Liverpool Krackens (if one is even able to have multiple krakens)
  • It would if your name wasn't Matthew Goodwin.
    I used to think that Goodwin was an interesting, impartial, academic observer worth listening to. But, especially on Twitter, I've stopped listening because, rather like some on here, he has become selective in his use of evidence to support his partisan views (which have become much more noticeable over the last year).
    Hey Northern_Al, hope you're well this evening.

    Goodwin's analysis of Labour's defeat is pretty much correct but he's not unique in making that analysis. And like you I find his Twitter contributions very boring and selective.

    It's his suggestions for Labour that I find troubling and in bad faith. He knows full well Labour cannot go to the right on culture in any way that would "out culture" the Tories, so it seems odd he keeps suggesting Labour do that. Blair was far more shrewd when he said don't have the conversation at all, it's a battle you can't win. Goodwin suggests Labour fights it, I think that's not workable.

    He correctly identifies Labour needs to win Scotland but how is becoming culturally right wing going to do that? Scotland isn't interested in that, it keeps voting the SNP in.

    I think less culture for Labour is a good thing, ideally don't have the arguments at all but I think going to the right is stupid.

    I also don't think he's entirely right to say the only route to a Labour victory is through culture + left wing economics. That's not how Blair won.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 21,660

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Seems like either:

    Total capitulation in which we end up on a level playing field with the EU, fishing, state aid (may as well join EEA to save the economic damage)

    No Deal and the economy is fucked

    A UK and EU FTA would still allow us to end free movement and do our own trade deals unlike EEA but it would require the same regulatory alignment as EEA
    Trashes the economy though and we get no say over the rules we have to align with
    A FTA does not trash the economy, certainly not compared to WTO terms and it still meets the core reasons Brexit won ie to end free movement, leave the EU and do our own trade deals
    The Government's own analysis concluded a FTA would damage the economy
    The Cameron Government's own analysis I think you mean. And it does not have a good record on getting these predictions right. The prediction of a massive immediate recession if we even voted for Brexit was one of their good ones.
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 2,273

    kle4 said:

    Jesus, that's the the best they could come up with?

    Washington's NFL team will be called the "Washington Football Team" during the 2020 season.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/american-football/53520772

    I get dropping the Redskins bit, but was it really impossible to have a placeholder name while they go through the process of choosing a new name and logo for the long term? Even the Washington Blandathons would be better.

    What is wrong with Washington Football Team?

    Liverpool Football Club don't feel the need to put another name after Liverpool. Plus any placeholder would be pressured to become the permanent new name, they'd end up with as many names as leaders of the Lib Dems in recent years.
    Its ironic that we are importing stupid team names from the US just has they tone theirs down! Cricket should hang their heads in shame at the idiotic names given to one day teams .
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 28,710
    HYUFD said:

    HFUYD isn't a polling font, he's just here to share his agenda

    Well at least I share more polling data than you, you tend to just share your agenda (and please spell my PB name correctly)
    You are, of course, Hell Yes! Unveiled for debate.

    How many years ago was that EICIPM moment of brilliance? It seems like a century ago
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Seems like either:

    Total capitulation in which we end up on a level playing field with the EU, fishing, state aid (may as well join EEA to save the economic damage)

    No Deal and the economy is fucked

    A UK and EU FTA would still allow us to end free movement and do our own trade deals unlike EEA but it would require the same regulatory alignment as EEA
    Trashes the economy though and we get no say over the rules we have to align with
    A FTA does not trash the economy, certainly not compared to WTO terms and it still meets the core reasons Brexit won ie to end free movement, leave the EU and do our own trade deals
    The Government's own analysis concluded a FTA would damage the economy
    The Cameron Government's own analysis I think you mean. And it does not have a good record on getting these predictions right. The prediction of a massive immediate recession if we even voted for Brexit was one of their good ones.
    No, the May Government
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 35,023

    Anti-wokeism is a minority support, indeed only 37% of voters support it.

    What % thought "wokeism" means being awake on the job?

    OR maybe being woke up when you least expect it, as when the boss catches you taking your post-luncheon nap?
    "Woke me up before you go-go
    Dodgy statues really are a no-no"
  • Charles said:

    HYUFD said:

    HFUYD isn't a polling font, he's just here to share his agenda

    Well at least I share more polling data than you, you tend to just share your agenda (and please spell my PB name correctly)
    You are, of course, Hell Yes! Unveiled for debate.

    How many years ago was that EICIPM moment of brilliance? It seems like a century ago
    I don't know what any of this means
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 21,660
    kle4 said:

    Jesus, that's the the best they could come up with?

    Washington's NFL team will be called the "Washington Football Team" during the 2020 season.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/american-football/53520772

    I get dropping the Redskins bit, but was it really impossible to have a placeholder name while they go through the process of choosing a new name and logo for the long term? Even the Washington Blandathons would be better.

    I thought they had decided on the Red Tails in honour of the WW2 black squadron. Seemed a good choice to me. Retains a link to the old name whilst recognising and undoubted great contribution to the war effort by African Americans.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 74,050
    edited July 23

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    A curious omission from @HYUFD when posting polls:

    Yet on actual polling all the indyref2 polls this year including Don't Knows have had Yes in a range of 43% to 50%, not vastly different from the 45% Yes got in 2014, not one single poll this year has had Yes over 50% once don't knows are included

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proposed_second_Scottish_independence_referendum#Opinion_polling
    That is not the same point though. 59% of all Brits and 74% of Scots feel the United Kingdom is weaker over 5 years. It is hard to see that reversed by BoZos Clown car crash Brexit.

    Scottish Independence now looks inevitable, the only questions are timing and how acrimonious.
    Timing: under the next Labour Prime Minister, whenever that is

    Nastiness: extreme - expect many years of vicious eye-gouging over a whole range of inflammatory problems including (in no particular order) Trident, the national debt, the currency, the reserves of the Bank of England, the contents of the British Museum, citizenship, pensions and tariff barriers. Relations will be absolutely dreadful for at least as long as it takes for everybody who was involved in the separation process on both sides to die of old age
    It will be brutal, no question. We know that splits on such major topics will cause hateful reactions in whichever side loses.

    However, nothing is inevitable, even if the prospects look very grim, and we shouldn't pretend it is inevitable as that's just an excuse to convince people to give in.
    Technically you're correct, but in practice there's no likely end point to this process other than separation. Whoever said that Scottish devolution was a motorway to independence with no exits has been proven triumphantly right.

    Coming to terms with the end of the Union, if you're not in favour of it, is rather like coming to terms with the inevitability of your own eventual death. You don't have to like it, but it's a good idea for the sake of one's own sanity to learn to accept it.
    As I said, and well exampled there, an excuse to get people to give in. I have certainly accepted the prospect and indeed likelihood of it, and it makes me sad, but claiming anything like that is inevitable is nothing but arrogance designed to suggest those who resist are in some way deluded, rather than simply in disagreement. It casts resistors in the role of the irrational not just opponents.
    I don't think that's necessarily true. If you really care about something then, depending upon the circumstances, it may be entirely laudable to fight for it even absent any realistic prospect of success.
    HYUFD said:

    No that is defeatist and when Yes is not over 50% in any poll including don't knows absurdly so

    There's a world of difference between defeatism and realism. The First Minister is going to win a thumping majority in the Scottish Parliament next year, after which resistance to the second referendum - even if Johnson feels he can brazen it out under such circumstances - will only last for as long as the Conservative Government does. After that, you're facing a vote which has been delayed for years courtesy of obstruction by English Tory MPs, with an electorate in which many elderly Unionists have passed away and been replaced by pro-independence youth. It's over.
    Boris will likely delay it as long as he is PM, if he loses the next election that means Starmer becomes PM, the whole UK rejoins the single market or close to it and Holyrood gets devomax and the demand for independence recedes even if he grants indyref2.

    If however Boris does allow indyref2 after WTO terms Brexit then that means border controls and customs checks at Berwick and tariffs on Scottish exports to England and vice versa and likely a Tory win again in 2024 on a surge of English nationalism, with Westminster free of SNP MPs the Tories have a majority of well over 100
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 21,660

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Seems like either:

    Total capitulation in which we end up on a level playing field with the EU, fishing, state aid (may as well join EEA to save the economic damage)

    No Deal and the economy is fucked

    A UK and EU FTA would still allow us to end free movement and do our own trade deals unlike EEA but it would require the same regulatory alignment as EEA
    Trashes the economy though and we get no say over the rules we have to align with
    A FTA does not trash the economy, certainly not compared to WTO terms and it still meets the core reasons Brexit won ie to end free movement, leave the EU and do our own trade deals
    The Government's own analysis concluded a FTA would damage the economy
    The Cameron Government's own analysis I think you mean. And it does not have a good record on getting these predictions right. The prediction of a massive immediate recession if we even voted for Brexit was one of their good ones.
    No, the May Government
    Hahahahaha. That is even worse.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 1,114
    Politico.com - Politico Playbook July 23

    WHAT AN ABJECT DISASTER of a morning for the three Ms: STEVEN MNUCHIN, MARK MEADOWS and MITCH MCCONNELL.

    AFTER A FEW WEEKS of anticipation, the SENATE GOP LEADERSHIP had to abandon its plans to release a Covid relief bill after disagreements on policy with the TRUMP White House.

    TO PUT THIS IN CONTEXT: Republicans can’t even get on the same page with each other for a bill that is simply meant to jumpstart negotiations with Democrats. In other words, the bill that the WHITE HOUSE and SENATE GOP LEADERSHIP are arguing over will never get a vote. Now think about how hard it will be for Republicans to put together a big package with Democrats over the next few weeks.

    THE ORIGINAL PLAN was for Senate Majority Leader MCCONNELL to introduce his Covid package on the floor this morning at 9:30 -- which, theoretically, would have led to talks with Speaker NANCY PELOSI and Senate Minority Leader CHUCK SCHUMER next week.

    BUT INSTEAD, around 9:30 a.m., Treasury Secretary MNUCHIN and White House COS MEADOWS made an emergency visit to meet with an angry MCCONNELL, whose plans were in the process of being foiled. The crux of the disagreement was how to structure unemployment insurance. Many of the spending provisions had been hammered out.

    NOW, MCCONNELL will likely have to release his draft bill next week, which is far later than he had planned. Keep in mind that enhanced unemployment benefits are due to run out at the end of the month.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 21,105
    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Jesus, that's the the best they could come up with?

    Washington's NFL team will be called the "Washington Football Team" during the 2020 season.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/american-football/53520772

    I get dropping the Redskins bit, but was it really impossible to have a placeholder name while they go through the process of choosing a new name and logo for the long term? Even the Washington Blandathons would be better.

    Seattle's new National Hockey League franchise just announced the new team's name: The Kracken.

    This was favorite with many locals, serious hockey fanatics as well as normal, decent folk.
    That is a good name. I'd be content if Liverpool changed their name to the Liverpool Krackens (if one is even able to have multiple krakens)
    Washington Cthulu might work..
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 28,710

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    nichomar said:

    nichomar said:

    OllyT said:

    kle4 said:

    I hope I am wrong but I think the enforced mask wearing will make the Covid situation worse in the UK and that in 2 weeks new cases will be over 1000 per day. If face coverings were the solution then the WHO would have recommended them back in March but they didn’t. Countries where face coverings are far more prevalent than the UK are seeing rises in cases now and I fear we will be the same. Social distancing and hand washing have worked in the UK , Deaths are below average and the number of new cases is under control. There is no need for this change and I fear it will have the opposite of the desired effect.

    You don't sound like you hope you are wrong.
    Of course I hope I’m wrong as if cases go up the government will force mask wearing every time you go outside which is the case in Spain at the moment.
    I thought a couple of PBers who actually live in Spain told you you earlier that the rise in infections in Spain were mainly coming from situations where masks were still not worn, ie clusters from nightclubs. Are you ignoring that because it doesn't fit your agenda?
    I’ll find some breakdowns tomorrow of where these outbreaks are coming from but off the top of my head

    Night bars frequented by young people
    Family gatherings at home or in restaurants

    The first infections in this wave came from meat processing plants.
    In Spain you cannot go out without a mask on, if you do you face an instant fine. On the beach when you sunbathe you can remove the mask but as soon as you stand up you must put the mask on, yet cases are on the rise. I might be naive but I don’t see these results as evidence that mask wearing works.

    Family gatherings are allowed in the uk now and pubs are open and busy yet without forced mask wearing our new cases are less than Spain.



    Don’t count your chickens
    I’m not, we will follow Spain’s lead and make mask wearing mandatory and cases will rise
    Why might wearing masks cause cases to rise?
    It doesn't. @NerysHughes is smoking crack.

    If mask wearing wasn't effective at preventing the spread disease, then surgeons wouldn't bother wearing them.
    Nice comment!
    Masks are now mandatory in Spain and news cases doubled today to 2600.
    How is that evidence that wearing masks works.
    Surgeons wear a face fitted mask which is completely different to masks the public wears. It’s like saying wearing sunglasses is the same as wearing a welders mask.
    Now, I'm normally one of the most polite poster on PB, and you have previously shown no signs of mental retardation. A correlation, on its own, is no evidence of causation.

    Has anything else happened in Spain that might have had an impact on case numbers? Like, for example, nightclubs reopening?

    One of the central tenets of the Church of the Flying Spaghetti Monster (All Hail His Noodly Appendage) is that Global Warming is caused by piracy. There is a direct statistical correlation between the increase in acts of piracy over the last century and the increase in global temperatures.

    See also the correlation between the box office take of Nicholas Cage films and people drowning by falling into swimming pools. It is uncanny and must be evidence of causation.
    Rainfall on Mt Snowdon and performance of the FTSE 100
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 5,830
    edited July 23

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Seems like either:

    Total capitulation in which we end up on a level playing field with the EU, fishing, state aid (may as well join EEA to save the economic damage)

    No Deal and the economy is fucked

    A UK and EU FTA would still allow us to end free movement and do our own trade deals unlike EEA but it would require the same regulatory alignment as EEA
    Trashes the economy though and we get no say over the rules we have to align with
    A FTA does not trash the economy, certainly not compared to WTO terms and it still meets the core reasons Brexit won ie to end free movement, leave the EU and do our own trade deals
    The Government's own analysis concluded a FTA would damage the economy
    The Cameron Government's own analysis I think you mean. And it does not have a good record on getting these predictions right. The prediction of a massive immediate recession if we even voted for Brexit was one of their good ones.
    No, the May Government
    Hahahahaha. That is even worse.
    Because a pro-Brexit Government is impartial then? ROFL.

    If Johnson's Government produced a report saying Brexit was an economic masterstroke you'd be here saying it was fantastic. If I called out its lack of impartiality you'd call me a muppet
  • TimTTimT Posts: 934
    Charles said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    nichomar said:

    nichomar said:

    OllyT said:

    kle4 said:

    I hope I am wrong but I think the enforced mask wearing will make the Covid situation worse in the UK and that in 2 weeks new cases will be over 1000 per day. If face coverings were the solution then the WHO would have recommended them back in March but they didn’t. Countries where face coverings are far more prevalent than the UK are seeing rises in cases now and I fear we will be the same. Social distancing and hand washing have worked in the UK , Deaths are below average and the number of new cases is under control. There is no need for this change and I fear it will have the opposite of the desired effect.

    You don't sound like you hope you are wrong.
    Of course I hope I’m wrong as if cases go up the government will force mask wearing every time you go outside which is the case in Spain at the moment.
    I thought a couple of PBers who actually live in Spain told you you earlier that the rise in infections in Spain were mainly coming from situations where masks were still not worn, ie clusters from nightclubs. Are you ignoring that because it doesn't fit your agenda?
    I’ll find some breakdowns tomorrow of where these outbreaks are coming from but off the top of my head

    Night bars frequented by young people
    Family gatherings at home or in restaurants

    The first infections in this wave came from meat processing plants.
    In Spain you cannot go out without a mask on, if you do you face an instant fine. On the beach when you sunbathe you can remove the mask but as soon as you stand up you must put the mask on, yet cases are on the rise. I might be naive but I don’t see these results as evidence that mask wearing works.

    Family gatherings are allowed in the uk now and pubs are open and busy yet without forced mask wearing our new cases are less than Spain.



    Don’t count your chickens
    I’m not, we will follow Spain’s lead and make mask wearing mandatory and cases will rise
    Why might wearing masks cause cases to rise?
    It doesn't. @NerysHughes is smoking crack.

    If mask wearing wasn't effective at preventing the spread disease, then surgeons wouldn't bother wearing them.
    Nice comment!
    Masks are now mandatory in Spain and news cases doubled today to 2600.
    How is that evidence that wearing masks works.
    Surgeons wear a face fitted mask which is completely different to masks the public wears. It’s like saying wearing sunglasses is the same as wearing a welders mask.
    Now, I'm normally one of the most polite poster on PB, and you have previously shown no signs of mental retardation. A correlation, on its own, is no evidence of causation.

    Has anything else happened in Spain that might have had an impact on case numbers? Like, for example, nightclubs reopening?

    One of the central tenets of the Church of the Flying Spaghetti Monster (All Hail His Noodly Appendage) is that Global Warming is caused by piracy. There is a direct statistical correlation between the increase in acts of piracy over the last century and the increase in global temperatures.

    See also the correlation between the box office take of Nicholas Cage films and people drowning by falling into swimming pools. It is uncanny and must be evidence of causation.
    Rainfall on Mt Snowdon and performance of the FTSE 100
    Superbowl-winning Conference and NYSE performance
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 16,902

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Jesus, that's the the best they could come up with?

    Washington's NFL team will be called the "Washington Football Team" during the 2020 season.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/american-football/53520772

    I get dropping the Redskins bit, but was it really impossible to have a placeholder name while they go through the process of choosing a new name and logo for the long term? Even the Washington Blandathons would be better.

    Seattle's new National Hockey League franchise just announced the new team's name: The Kracken.

    This was favorite with many locals, serious hockey fanatics as well as normal, decent folk.
    That is a good name. I'd be content if Liverpool changed their name to the Liverpool Krackens (if one is even able to have multiple krakens)
    Washington Cthulu might work..
    Washington Lizards?
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 1,114

    kle4 said:

    Jesus, that's the the best they could come up with?

    Washington's NFL team will be called the "Washington Football Team" during the 2020 season.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/american-football/53520772

    I get dropping the Redskins bit, but was it really impossible to have a placeholder name while they go through the process of choosing a new name and logo for the long term? Even the Washington Blandathons would be better.

    I thought they had decided on the Red Tails in honour of the WW2 black squadron. Seemed a good choice to me. Retains a link to the old name whilst recognising and undoubted great contribution to the war effort by African Americans.
    They want more time for market research & other BS. Also, management has other things to worry about right now, such as the massive sexual harrasment scandal just uncovered by Washington Post.

    My guess is that "Redhawks" underwhelms football fans & others in metro DC - including African Americans. The squadron you mention is NOT a household word, like Buffalo Soldiers or Tuskegee Airmen.

    Many people have refused to call the team the R-word for many years now, so not that big a deal, at least temporarily.
  • GarethoftheVale2GarethoftheVale2 Posts: 1,421

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    A curious omission from @HYUFD when posting polls:

    Yet on actual polling all the indyref2 polls this year including Don't Knows have had Yes in a range of 43% to 50%, not vastly different from the 45% Yes got in 2014, not one single poll this year has had Yes over 50% once don't knows are included

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proposed_second_Scottish_independence_referendum#Opinion_polling
    That is not the same point though. 59% of all Brits and 74% of Scots feel the United Kingdom is weaker over 5 years. It is hard to see that reversed by BoZos Clown car crash Brexit.

    Scottish Independence now looks inevitable, the only questions are timing and how acrimonious.
    Timing: under the next Labour Prime Minister, whenever that is

    Nastiness: extreme - expect many years of vicious eye-gouging over a whole range of inflammatory problems including (in no particular order) Trident, the national debt, the currency, the reserves of the Bank of England, the contents of the British Museum, citizenship, pensions and tariff barriers. Relations will be absolutely dreadful for at least as long as it takes for everybody who was involved in the separation process on both sides to die of old age
    It will be brutal, no question. We know that splits on such major topics will cause hateful reactions in whichever side loses.

    However, nothing is inevitable, even if the prospects look very grim, and we shouldn't pretend it is inevitable as that's just an excuse to convince people to give in.
    Technically you're correct, but in practice there's no likely end point to this process other than separation. Whoever said that Scottish devolution was a motorway to independence with no exits has been proven triumphantly right.

    Coming to terms with the end of the Union, if you're not in favour of it, is rather like coming to terms with the inevitability of your own eventual death. You don't have to like it, but it's a good idea for the sake of one's own sanity to learn to accept it.
    As I said, and well exampled there, an excuse to get people to give in. I have certainly accepted the prospect and indeed likelihood of it, and it makes me sad, but claiming anything like that is inevitable is nothing but arrogance designed to suggest those who resist are in some way deluded, rather than simply in disagreement. It casts resistors in the role of the irrational not just opponents.
    I don't think that's necessarily true. If you really care about something then, depending upon the circumstances, it may be entirely laudable to fight for it even absent any realistic prospect of success.
    HYUFD said:

    No that is defeatist and when Yes is not over 50% in any poll including don't knows absurdly so

    There's a world of difference between defeatism and realism. The First Minister is going to win a thumping majority in the Scottish Parliament next year, after which resistance to the second referendum - even if Johnson feels he can brazen it out under such circumstances - will only last for as long as the Conservative Government does. After that, you're facing a vote which has been delayed for years courtesy of obstruction by English Tory MPs, with an electorate in which many elderly Unionists have passed away and been replaced by pro-independence youth. It's over.
    I have no doubt Sturgeon would win a massive majority if an election was held tomorrow but it is still almost a year away. As Boris has found out, what the polls give, the polls can also take away.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 1,114
    TimT said:

    Charles said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    nichomar said:

    nichomar said:

    OllyT said:

    kle4 said:

    I hope I am wrong but I think the enforced mask wearing will make the Covid situation worse in the UK and that in 2 weeks new cases will be over 1000 per day. If face coverings were the solution then the WHO would have recommended them back in March but they didn’t. Countries where face coverings are far more prevalent than the UK are seeing rises in cases now and I fear we will be the same. Social distancing and hand washing have worked in the UK , Deaths are below average and the number of new cases is under control. There is no need for this change and I fear it will have the opposite of the desired effect.

    You don't sound like you hope you are wrong.
    Of course I hope I’m wrong as if cases go up the government will force mask wearing every time you go outside which is the case in Spain at the moment.
    I thought a couple of PBers who actually live in Spain told you you earlier that the rise in infections in Spain were mainly coming from situations where masks were still not worn, ie clusters from nightclubs. Are you ignoring that because it doesn't fit your agenda?
    I’ll find some breakdowns tomorrow of where these outbreaks are coming from but off the top of my head

    Night bars frequented by young people
    Family gatherings at home or in restaurants

    The first infections in this wave came from meat processing plants.
    In Spain you cannot go out without a mask on, if you do you face an instant fine. On the beach when you sunbathe you can remove the mask but as soon as you stand up you must put the mask on, yet cases are on the rise. I might be naive but I don’t see these results as evidence that mask wearing works.

    Family gatherings are allowed in the uk now and pubs are open and busy yet without forced mask wearing our new cases are less than Spain.



    Don’t count your chickens
    I’m not, we will follow Spain’s lead and make mask wearing mandatory and cases will rise
    Why might wearing masks cause cases to rise?
    It doesn't. @NerysHughes is smoking crack.

    If mask wearing wasn't effective at preventing the spread disease, then surgeons wouldn't bother wearing them.
    Nice comment!
    Masks are now mandatory in Spain and news cases doubled today to 2600.
    How is that evidence that wearing masks works.
    Surgeons wear a face fitted mask which is completely different to masks the public wears. It’s like saying wearing sunglasses is the same as wearing a welders mask.
    Now, I'm normally one of the most polite poster on PB, and you have previously shown no signs of mental retardation. A correlation, on its own, is no evidence of causation.

    Has anything else happened in Spain that might have had an impact on case numbers? Like, for example, nightclubs reopening?

    One of the central tenets of the Church of the Flying Spaghetti Monster (All Hail His Noodly Appendage) is that Global Warming is caused by piracy. There is a direct statistical correlation between the increase in acts of piracy over the last century and the increase in global temperatures.

    See also the correlation between the box office take of Nicholas Cage films and people drowning by falling into swimming pools. It is uncanny and must be evidence of causation.
    Rainfall on Mt Snowdon and performance of the FTSE 100
    Superbowl-winning Conference and NYSE performance
    Winner of World Series & winner of Presidential election
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 1,114

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Jesus, that's the the best they could come up with?

    Washington's NFL team will be called the "Washington Football Team" during the 2020 season.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/american-football/53520772

    I get dropping the Redskins bit, but was it really impossible to have a placeholder name while they go through the process of choosing a new name and logo for the long term? Even the Washington Blandathons would be better.

    Seattle's new National Hockey League franchise just announced the new team's name: The Kracken.

    This was favorite with many locals, serious hockey fanatics as well as normal, decent folk.
    That is a good name. I'd be content if Liverpool changed their name to the Liverpool Krackens (if one is even able to have multiple krakens)
    Washington Cthulu might work..
    Washington Impeachables?
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 5,206
    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    A curious omission from @HYUFD when posting polls:

    Yet on actual polling all the indyref2 polls this year including Don't Knows have had Yes in a range of 43% to 50%, not vastly different from the 45% Yes got in 2014, not one single poll this year has had Yes over 50% once don't knows are included

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proposed_second_Scottish_independence_referendum#Opinion_polling
    That is not the same point though. 59% of all Brits and 74% of Scots feel the United Kingdom is weaker over 5 years. It is hard to see that reversed by BoZos Clown car crash Brexit.

    Scottish Independence now looks inevitable, the only questions are timing and how acrimonious.
    Timing: under the next Labour Prime Minister, whenever that is

    Nastiness: extreme - expect many years of vicious eye-gouging over a whole range of inflammatory problems including (in no particular order) Trident, the national debt, the currency, the reserves of the Bank of England, the contents of the British Museum, citizenship, pensions and tariff barriers. Relations will be absolutely dreadful for at least as long as it takes for everybody who was involved in the separation process on both sides to die of old age
    It will be brutal, no question. We know that splits on such major topics will cause hateful reactions in whichever side loses.

    However, nothing is inevitable, even if the prospects look very grim, and we shouldn't pretend it is inevitable as that's just an excuse to convince people to give in.
    Technically you're correct, but in practice there's no likely end point to this process other than separation. Whoever said that Scottish devolution was a motorway to independence with no exits has been proven triumphantly right.

    Coming to terms with the end of the Union, if you're not in favour of it, is rather like coming to terms with the inevitability of your own eventual death. You don't have to like it, but it's a good idea for the sake of one's own sanity to learn to accept it.
    As I said, and well exampled there, an excuse to get people to give in. I have certainly accepted the prospect and indeed likelihood of it, and it makes me sad, but claiming anything like that is inevitable is nothing but arrogance designed to suggest those who resist are in some way deluded, rather than simply in disagreement. It casts resistors in the role of the irrational not just opponents.
    I don't think that's necessarily true. If you really care about something then, depending upon the circumstances, it may be entirely laudable to fight for it even absent any realistic prospect of success.
    HYUFD said:

    No that is defeatist and when Yes is not over 50% in any poll including don't knows absurdly so

    There's a world of difference between defeatism and realism. The First Minister is going to win a thumping majority in the Scottish Parliament next year, after which resistance to the second referendum - even if Johnson feels he can brazen it out under such circumstances - will only last for as long as the Conservative Government does. After that, you're facing a vote which has been delayed for years courtesy of obstruction by English Tory MPs, with an electorate in which many elderly Unionists have passed away and been replaced by pro-independence youth. It's over.
    Boris will likely delay it as long as he is PM, if he loses the next election that means Starmer becomes PM, the whole UK rejoins the single market or close to it and Holyrood gets devomax and the demand for independence recedes even if he grants indyref2.

    If however Boris does allow indyref2 after WTO terms Brexit then that means border controls and customs checks at Berwick and tariffs on Scottish exports to England and vice versa and likely a Tory win again in 2024 on a surge of English nationalism, with Westminster free of SNP MPs the Tories have a majority of well over 100
    Keir Starmer is highly unlikely to be able to finesse his way out of this with pro-Europeanism and yet more powers. Such is the condition of the Labour Party that if he gets into No.10 it'll almost certainly be as a minority PM reliant on SNP votes. If they can't get their referendum out of him then they'll vote down both Labour and Tory candidates for the Premiership and force another General Election, paralysing the state.

    The SNP will get their referendum eventually, and when they get it they'll win.

    Johnson won't concede a referendum because that theoretical Tory win in 2024 would end up being under another leader. The fall of the Union would wreck him as comprehensively as the 2016 result did Cameron.
  • isamisam Posts: 33,119
    Six weeks ago IPSOS-MORI gave Keir Starmer a net score of zero for personality (30 yes 30 no). Today’s YouGov, after he poured pints, cracked jokes, and tweeted his new hairdo...


  • CharlesCharles Posts: 28,710

    Charles said:

    HYUFD said:

    HFUYD isn't a polling font, he's just here to share his agenda

    Well at least I share more polling data than you, you tend to just share your agenda (and please spell my PB name correctly)
    You are, of course, Hell Yes! Unveiled for debate.

    How many years ago was that EICIPM moment of brilliance? It seems like a century ago
    I don't know what any of this means
    Ed Miliband (“Ed Is Crap Is Prime Minister” as regularly posted by @bigjohnowls ) answered one of his debate questions “Hell Yes!” in 2015.

    At the same time we were trying to figure out what HYUFD meant
This discussion has been closed.