Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » And so to tonight’s PB NightHawks Cafe

2»

Comments

  • isamisam Posts: 40,731
    isam said:

    Six weeks ago IPSOS-MORI gave Keir Starmer a net score of zero for personality (30 yes 30 no). Today’s YouGov, after he poured pints, cracked jokes, and tweeted his new hairdo...


    Meanwhile


  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,717
    edited July 2020

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    A curious omission from @HYUFD when posting polls:

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1286321036213080066?s=09

    Yet on actual polling all the indyref2 polls this year including Don't Knows have had Yes in a range of 43% to 50%, not vastly different from the 45% Yes got in 2014, not one single poll this year has had Yes over 50% once don't knows are included

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proposed_second_Scottish_independence_referendum#Opinion_polling
    That is not the same point though. 59% of all Brits and 74% of Scots feel the United Kingdom is weaker over 5 years. It is hard to see that reversed by BoZos Clown car crash Brexit.

    Scottish Independence now looks inevitable, the only questions are timing and how acrimonious.
    Timing: under the next Labour Prime Minister, whenever that is

    Nastiness: extreme - expect many years of vicious eye-gouging over a whole range of inflammatory problems including (in no particular order) Trident, the national debt, the currency, the reserves of the Bank of England, the contents of the British Museum, citizenship, pensions and tariff barriers. Relations will be absolutely dreadful for at least as long as it takes for everybody who was involved in the separation process on both sides to die of old age
    It will be brutal, no question. We know that splits on such major topics will cause hateful reactions in whichever side loses.

    However, nothing is inevitable, even if the prospects look very grim, and we shouldn't pretend it is inevitable as that's just an excuse to convince people to give in.
    Technically you're correct, but in practice there's no likely end point to this process other than separation. Whoever said that Scottish devolution was a motorway to independence with no exits has been proven triumphantly right.

    Coming to terms with the end of the Union, if you're not in favour of it, is rather like coming to terms with the inevitability of your own eventual death. You don't have to like it, but it's a good idea for the sake of one's own sanity to learn to accept it.
    As I said, and well exampled there, an excuse to get people to give in. I have certainly accepted the prospect and indeed likelihood of it, and it makes me sad, but claiming anything like that is inevitable is nothing but arrogance designed to suggest those who resist are in some way deluded, rather than simply in disagreement. It casts resistors in the role of the irrational not just opponents.
    I don't think that's necessarily true. If you really care about something then, depending upon the circumstances, it may be entirely laudable to fight for it even absent any realistic prospect of success.
    HYUFD said:

    No that is defeatist and when Yes is not over 50% in any poll including don't knows absurdly so

    There's a world of difference between defeatism and realism. The First Minister is going to win a thumping majority in the Scottish Parliament next year, after which resistance to the second referendum - even if Johnson feels he can brazen it out under such circumstances - will only last for as long as the Conservative Government does. After that, you're facing a vote which has been delayed for years courtesy of obstruction by English Tory MPs, with an electorate in which many elderly Unionists have passed away and been replaced by pro-independence youth. It's over.
    Boris will likely delay it as long as he is PM, if he loses the next election that means Starmer becomes PM, the whole UK rejoins the single market or close to it and Holyrood gets devomax and the demand for independence recedes even if he grants indyref2.

    If however Boris does allow indyref2 after WTO terms Brexit then that means border controls and customs checks at Berwick and tariffs on Scottish exports to England and vice versa and likely a Tory win again in 2024 on a surge of English nationalism, with Westminster free of SNP MPs the Tories have a majority of well over 100
    Keir Starmer is highly unlikely to be able to finesse his way out of this with pro-Europeanism and yet more powers. Such is the condition of the Labour Party that if he gets into No.10 it'll almost certainly be as a minority PM reliant on SNP votes. If they can't get their referendum out of him then they'll vote down both Labour and Tory candidates for the Premiership and force another General Election, paralysing the state.

    The SNP will get their referendum eventually, and when they get it they'll win.

    Johnson won't concede a referendum because that theoretical Tory win in 2024 would end up being under another leader. The fall of the Union would wreck him as comprehensively as the 2016 result did Cameron.
    Yes but Starmer has a net positive rating in Scotland, would take the UK back into the single market and grant devomax, so even if the SNP force indyref2 he likely wins it.

    If the Union breaks up before 2024 any chance of a Labour PM at the next general election disappears with the loss of Scottish MPs and the backlash of English nationalism would see a Tory win and tariffs at Berwick would be the end result and Scottish and English relations would be at their worst since Bannockburn and Flodden Field
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    A curious omission from @HYUFD when posting polls:

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1286321036213080066?s=09

    Yet on actual polling all the indyref2 polls this year including Don't Knows have had Yes in a range of 43% to 50%, not vastly different from the 45% Yes got in 2014, not one single poll this year has had Yes over 50% once don't knows are included

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proposed_second_Scottish_independence_referendum#Opinion_polling
    That is not the same point though. 59% of all Brits and 74% of Scots feel the United Kingdom is weaker over 5 years. It is hard to see that reversed by BoZos Clown car crash Brexit.

    Scottish Independence now looks inevitable, the only questions are timing and how acrimonious.
    Timing: under the next Labour Prime Minister, whenever that is

    Nastiness: extreme - expect many years of vicious eye-gouging over a whole range of inflammatory problems including (in no particular order) Trident, the national debt, the currency, the reserves of the Bank of England, the contents of the British Museum, citizenship, pensions and tariff barriers. Relations will be absolutely dreadful for at least as long as it takes for everybody who was involved in the separation process on both sides to die of old age
    It will be brutal, no question. We know that splits on such major topics will cause hateful reactions in whichever side loses.

    However, nothing is inevitable, even if the prospects look very grim, and we shouldn't pretend it is inevitable as that's just an excuse to convince people to give in.
    Technically you're correct, but in practice there's no likely end point to this process other than separation. Whoever said that Scottish devolution was a motorway to independence with no exits has been proven triumphantly right.

    Coming to terms with the end of the Union, if you're not in favour of it, is rather like coming to terms with the inevitability of your own eventual death. You don't have to like it, but it's a good idea for the sake of one's own sanity to learn to accept it.
    As I said, and well exampled there, an excuse to get people to give in. I have certainly accepted the prospect and indeed likelihood of it, and it makes me sad, but claiming anything like that is inevitable is nothing but arrogance designed to suggest those who resist are in some way deluded, rather than simply in disagreement. It casts resistors in the role of the irrational not just opponents.
    I don't think that's necessarily true. If you really care about something then, depending upon the circumstances, it may be entirely laudable to fight for it even absent any realistic prospect of success.
    HYUFD said:

    No that is defeatist and when Yes is not over 50% in any poll including don't knows absurdly so

    There's a world of difference between defeatism and realism. The First Minister is going to win a thumping majority in the Scottish Parliament next year, after which resistance to the second referendum - even if Johnson feels he can brazen it out under such circumstances - will only last for as long as the Conservative Government does. After that, you're facing a vote which has been delayed for years courtesy of obstruction by English Tory MPs, with an electorate in which many elderly Unionists have passed away and been replaced by pro-independence youth. It's over.
    I have no doubt Sturgeon would win a massive majority if an election was held tomorrow but it is still almost a year away. As Boris has found out, what the polls give, the polls can also take away.
    But in order to get to a Unionist majority at Holyrood one has to construct a plausible scenario in which things go so badly wrong, not just for Sturgeon but for the entire independence movement, that the SNP can't command a majority after 2021, even with the support of the Greens. It is, of course, theoretically possible that they could go backwards (most likely due to a significant fraction of independence backers amongst the Scottish electorate deciding that this Union thing isn't so bad after all,) just as it is also theoretically possible that the Liberal Democrats could win the 2024 General Election. But why should we suppose that either of these things will come to pass?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,717
    Trump cancels GOP convention in Florida

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-53521896

  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,286
    edited July 2020
    New prediction competition: how long will the facemask rule be in place for?
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,846
    edited July 2020

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Seems like either:

    Total capitulation in which we end up on a level playing field with the EU, fishing, state aid (may as well join EEA to save the economic damage)

    No Deal and the economy is fucked

    A UK and EU FTA would still allow us to end free movement and do our own trade deals unlike EEA but it would require the same regulatory alignment as EEA
    Trashes the economy though and we get no say over the rules we have to align with
    A FTA does not trash the economy, certainly not compared to WTO terms and it still meets the core reasons Brexit won ie to end free movement, leave the EU and do our own trade deals
    The Government's own analysis concluded a FTA would damage the economy
    The Cameron Government's own analysis I think you mean. And it does not have a good record on getting these predictions right. The prediction of a massive immediate recession if we even voted for Brexit was one of their good ones.
    No, the May Government
    Hahahahaha. That is even worse.
    Because a pro-Brexit Government is impartial then? ROFL.

    If Johnson's Government produced a report saying Brexit was an economic masterstroke you'd be here saying it was fantastic. If I called out its lack of impartiality you'd call me a muppet
    Nope. The argument for me has never been about economics. I subscribe to the Robert Smithson school of thought that it will be neither as wonderful nor as disastrous as the various sides make out. Something I have made clear all along. So yes you are a muppet.

    Edit.. though in fairness I see you as the Swedish Chef sort of muppet rather than the cantankerous old gits.
  • Keir's got a lot of room to grow still, lots of don't knows/don't cares
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 15,243
    HYUFD said:

    Trump cancels GOP convention in Florida

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-53521896

    Technically up to the Republican National Committee to make decisions re: party's national convention, but no doubt they are EAGER to make Trumpsky's edict so in this case.

    COULD IT BE that The Donald is angling to have the convention moved to Mar-the-Largo or . . . wait for it . . . Royal Turnbury?

    Would make up for failure of his (in the most complete sense) Ambassador to the Court of St. James, to get the Open held in Trumsky's (literal) turf.
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Seems like either:

    Total capitulation in which we end up on a level playing field with the EU, fishing, state aid (may as well join EEA to save the economic damage)

    No Deal and the economy is fucked

    A UK and EU FTA would still allow us to end free movement and do our own trade deals unlike EEA but it would require the same regulatory alignment as EEA
    Trashes the economy though and we get no say over the rules we have to align with
    A FTA does not trash the economy, certainly not compared to WTO terms and it still meets the core reasons Brexit won ie to end free movement, leave the EU and do our own trade deals
    The Government's own analysis concluded a FTA would damage the economy
    The Cameron Government's own analysis I think you mean. And it does not have a good record on getting these predictions right. The prediction of a massive immediate recession if we even voted for Brexit was one of their good ones.
    No, the May Government
    Hahahahaha. That is even worse.
    Because a pro-Brexit Government is impartial then? ROFL.

    If Johnson's Government produced a report saying Brexit was an economic masterstroke you'd be here saying it was fantastic. If I called out its lack of impartiality you'd call me a muppet
    Nope. The argument for me has never been about economics. I subscribe to the Robert Smithson school of thought that it will be neither as wonderful nor as disastrous as the various sides make out. Something I have made clear all along. So yes you are a muppet.

    Edit.. though in fairness I see you as the Swedish Chef sort of muppet rather than the cantankerous old gits.
    I'm afraid I don't get your reference to a Swedish Chef.

    I think it will be bad and the whole thing will be a waste of time.
  • I don't think Labour will be bankrupted, I think they will be damaged financially but it will be more than offset by all the people Keir will be removing from the party
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    HYUFD said:

    HFUYD isn't a polling font, he's just here to share his agenda

    Well at least I share more polling data than you, you tend to just share your agenda (and please spell my PB name correctly)
    You are, of course, Hell Yes! Unveiled for debate.

    How many years ago was that EICIPM moment of brilliance? It seems like a century ago
    I don't know what any of this means
    Ed Miliband (“Ed Is Crap Is Prime Minister” as regularly posted by @bigjohnowls ) answered one of his debate questions “Hell Yes!” in 2015.

    At the same time we were trying to figure out what HYUFD meant
    The question was whether he was tough enough, which was a dumb question from Paxman, but it was still a laugh out loud answer. Ed was an ok guy, really.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 15,243

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Seems like either:

    Total capitulation in which we end up on a level playing field with the EU, fishing, state aid (may as well join EEA to save the economic damage)

    No Deal and the economy is fucked

    A UK and EU FTA would still allow us to end free movement and do our own trade deals unlike EEA but it would require the same regulatory alignment as EEA
    Trashes the economy though and we get no say over the rules we have to align with
    A FTA does not trash the economy, certainly not compared to WTO terms and it still meets the core reasons Brexit won ie to end free movement, leave the EU and do our own trade deals
    The Government's own analysis concluded a FTA would damage the economy
    The Cameron Government's own analysis I think you mean. And it does not have a good record on getting these predictions right. The prediction of a massive immediate recession if we even voted for Brexit was one of their good ones.
    No, the May Government
    Hahahahaha. That is even worse.
    Because a pro-Brexit Government is impartial then? ROFL.

    If Johnson's Government produced a report saying Brexit was an economic masterstroke you'd be here saying it was fantastic. If I called out its lack of impartiality you'd call me a muppet
    Nope. The argument for me has never been about economics. I subscribe to the Robert Smithson school of thought that it will be neither as wonderful nor as disastrous as the various sides make out. Something I have made clear all along. So yes you are a muppet.

    Edit.. though in fairness I see you as the Swedish Chef sort of muppet rather than the cantankerous old gits.
    You deserve extra points for not just referencing 'muppets" but in way that is true homage to Kermit, Miss Piggy, etc., etc.

    Personally the PM has always reminded me a bit of Animal, but with less impulse control.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    Andy_JS said:

    New prediction competition: how long will the facemask rule be in place for?

    600 years (I want to lock out the top end prediction)
  • Pagan2 said:

    What a shame. Maybe that long-awaited realignment of British politics might come about in an unexpected way:

    https://twitter.com/HarryYorke1/status/1286404835806502913

    It would make a pleasant change socialists running out of their own money rather than other peoples
    Could you pre-pack a political party. Wind up Labour and replace it with, say, New Labour?
  • https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/1286388347867455491

    Jezza knows he is for the chop. Get your popcorn out, gonna be fun summer
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    HYUFD said:

    Yes but Starmer has a net positive rating in Scotland, would take the UK back into the single market and grant devomax, so even if the SNP force indyref2 he likely wins it.

    This presupposes that the Nats would even entertain an attempt to stick Devomax - whatever the Hell that transpires to be - on the table. Although this does pose a different question.

    Let us imagine, for a moment, that we have a multi-option referendum in Scotland, in which enough former independence backers suddenly decide that they can put up with Trident and future Tory Governments we didn't vote for in exchange for a looser form of Union, and this wins a run off against full sovereignty. Now, what then happens - absent Devomax for everyone else, including the English - the next time the Conservatives get back in, presumably on a manifesto that includes stripping the 59 Scottish MPs of virtually all of their power? Or do you think that the English Tories will simply put up with the West Lothian Question being left unanswered forever, as a price worth paying for having a political arrangement which basically boils down to paying the Scots a huge annual cash bung AND granting them the right to meddle in English legislation and the formation of the English Government, in exchange for the lease on Faslane and Coulport? What becomes of the Union then?
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    kle4 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    New prediction competition: how long will the facemask rule be in place for?

    600 years (I want to lock out the top end prediction)
    Until the Heat Death of the Universe.
  • TheGreenMachineTheGreenMachine Posts: 1,043
    I ain't been logged in for months, who will win the lib dem leadership race?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,717

    HYUFD said:

    Yes but Starmer has a net positive rating in Scotland, would take the UK back into the single market and grant devomax, so even if the SNP force indyref2 he likely wins it.

    This presupposes that the Nats would even entertain an attempt to stick Devomax - whatever the Hell that transpires to be - on the table. Although this does pose a different question.

    Let us imagine, for a moment, that we have a multi-option referendum in Scotland, in which enough former independence backers suddenly decide that they can put up with Trident and future Tory Governments we didn't vote for in exchange for a looser form of Union, and this wins a run off against full sovereignty. Now, what then happens - absent Devomax for everyone else, including the English - the next time the Conservatives get back in, presumably on a manifesto that includes stripping the 59 Scottish MPs of virtually all of their power? Or do you think that the English Tories will simply put up with the West Lothian Question being left unanswered forever, as a price worth paying for having a political arrangement which basically boils down to paying the Scots a huge annual cash bung AND granting them the right to meddle in English legislation and the formation of the English Government, in exchange for the lease on Faslane and Coulport? What becomes of the Union then?
    Well of course they won't but the core Nats only represent 45%, it is the 55% who voted No last time who are key and they would virtually all accept devomax.

    EVEL or an English Parliament can settle the West Lothian question then
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408

    https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/1286388347867455491

    Jezza knows he is for the chop. Get your popcorn out, gonna be fun summer

    I think there is an alternative interpretation - his conviction and vanity are so deep he believes this is all just part of a struggle before he is recognised as the amazing visionary he thinks he is.

    kle4 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    New prediction competition: how long will the facemask rule be in place for?

    600 years (I want to lock out the top end prediction)
    Until the Heat Death of the Universe.
    Damn you!
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774

    kle4 said:

    Jesus, that's the the best they could come up with?

    Washington's NFL team will be called the "Washington Football Team" during the 2020 season.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/american-football/53520772

    I get dropping the Redskins bit, but was it really impossible to have a placeholder name while they go through the process of choosing a new name and logo for the long term? Even the Washington Blandathons would be better.

    Seattle's new National Hockey League franchise just announced the new team's name: The Kracken.

    This was favorite with many locals, serious hockey fanatics as well as normal, decent folk.
    The Kraken Wakes (yes, I know, spelt slightly differently) was my favourite John Wyndham novel.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408

    I ain't been logged in for months, who will win the lib dem leadership race?

    Surprisingly, probably Ed Davey is my bet. I guess the members do regret not picking him previously when they had the chance.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    edited July 2020
    Mandate is one of those things people only claim to care about when they think their opponent does not have it for some reason. Certainly no one ever let concern over a mandate for action derail their own plans unless there was no alternative.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 15,243
    Are any PBers eager to contribute to the cause of VEXIT?

    With you contribution of just hundreds of pounds a day YOU can strike a blow for freedom in the hills, valleys and shopping centers of the Old Dominion, by helping fund the VEXIT movement among Republicans in the Shenandoah Valley and western VA for succession from rest of commonwealth which is dominated by Democrats.

    For all I know some lucky PBer (Charles this means you) might regain a old family estate confiscated during or after the American Revolution, for help given to the VEXIT cause at this critical hour?
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,846

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Seems like either:

    Total capitulation in which we end up on a level playing field with the EU, fishing, state aid (may as well join EEA to save the economic damage)

    No Deal and the economy is fucked

    A UK and EU FTA would still allow us to end free movement and do our own trade deals unlike EEA but it would require the same regulatory alignment as EEA
    Trashes the economy though and we get no say over the rules we have to align with
    A FTA does not trash the economy, certainly not compared to WTO terms and it still meets the core reasons Brexit won ie to end free movement, leave the EU and do our own trade deals
    The Government's own analysis concluded a FTA would damage the economy
    The Cameron Government's own analysis I think you mean. And it does not have a good record on getting these predictions right. The prediction of a massive immediate recession if we even voted for Brexit was one of their good ones.
    No, the May Government
    Hahahahaha. That is even worse.
    Because a pro-Brexit Government is impartial then? ROFL.

    If Johnson's Government produced a report saying Brexit was an economic masterstroke you'd be here saying it was fantastic. If I called out its lack of impartiality you'd call me a muppet
    Nope. The argument for me has never been about economics. I subscribe to the Robert Smithson school of thought that it will be neither as wonderful nor as disastrous as the various sides make out. Something I have made clear all along. So yes you are a muppet.

    Edit.. though in fairness I see you as the Swedish Chef sort of muppet rather than the cantankerous old gits.
    I'm afraid I don't get your reference to a Swedish Chef.

    I think it will be bad and the whole thing will be a waste of time.
    Sorry I was trying to have a light hearted dig at you. The Swedish chef was one of the muppet characters. To my mind the best of the lot of them so it was a sort of complimentary insult.

    I forget how young so many of you folks are.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774
    edited July 2020

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    nichomar said:

    nichomar said:

    OllyT said:

    kle4 said:

    I hope I am wrong but I think the enforced mask wearing will make the Covid situation worse in the UK and that in 2 weeks new cases will be over 1000 per day. If face coverings were the solution then the WHO would have recommended them back in March but they didn’t. Countries where face coverings are far more prevalent than the UK are seeing rises in cases now and I fear we will be the same. Social distancing and hand washing have worked in the UK , Deaths are below average and the number of new cases is under control. There is no need for this change and I fear it will have the opposite of the desired effect.

    You don't sound like you hope you are wrong.
    Of course I hope I’m wrong as if cases go up the government will force mask wearing every time you go outside which is the case in Spain at the moment.
    I thought a couple of PBers who actually live in Spain told you you earlier that the rise in infections in Spain were mainly coming from situations where masks were still not worn, ie clusters from nightclubs. Are you ignoring that because it doesn't fit your agenda?
    I’ll find some breakdowns tomorrow of where these outbreaks are coming from but off the top of my head

    Night bars frequented by young people
    Family gatherings at home or in restaurants

    The first infections in this wave came from meat processing plants.
    In Spain you cannot go out without a mask on, if you do you face an instant fine. On the beach when you sunbathe you can remove the mask but as soon as you stand up you must put the mask on, yet cases are on the rise. I might be naive but I don’t see these results as evidence that mask wearing works.

    Family gatherings are allowed in the uk now and pubs are open and busy yet without forced mask wearing our new cases are less than Spain.



    Don’t count your chickens
    I’m not, we will follow Spain’s lead and make mask wearing mandatory and cases will rise
    Why might wearing masks cause cases to rise?
    It doesn't. @NerysHughes is smoking crack.

    If mask wearing wasn't effective at preventing the spread disease, then surgeons wouldn't bother wearing them.
    Nice comment!
    Masks are now mandatory in Spain and news cases doubled today to 2600.
    How is that evidence that wearing masks works.
    Surgeons wear a face fitted mask which is completely different to masks the public wears. It’s like saying wearing sunglasses is the same as wearing a welders mask.
    Now, I'm normally one of the most polite poster on PB, and you have previously shown no signs of mental retardation. A correlation, on its own, is no evidence of causation.

    Has anything else happened in Spain that might have had an impact on case numbers? Like, for example, nightclubs reopening?

    There has been a very significant relaxation of the lockdown in the Uk, pubs are open, friends and families are meeting, Liverpool football fans are setting off fireworks, yet our new cases have continued a slight downward trend. Spain has bought in this new tougher mask wearing law and their cases are increasing quickly. It may just be down to. Nightclubs but aren’t masks supposed to stop the spread?

    If I am right and our cases start to increase quickly what would you blame it on ?

    Dr Mike Ryan WHO 31st March
    “ There is no specific evidence to suggest that the wearing of masks by the general population has any potential benefit, in fact there is some evidence to suggest the opposite.....”

    Even Dr Hilary agreed with him.

    I accept he is now saying something different , but that is quite a radical change of thought. Covid had been around for 3 months by the time of his original statement, and he must have based it on medical/scientific evidence.

    We will see how our case numbers are affected by the wearing of masks in two weeks as that will be the only parameter that has changed.

    There was no mask wearing requirement in Israel or Arizona or Florida or South Africa, and all those countries have seen CV19 numbers spike as restrictions have been relaxed.

    Case numbers have risen in places where restrictions have been relaxed. You need to think of it like a series of pluses and minuses to the viral reproductive level. So, facemasks in public may be a -0.2 policy, washing hands regularly might be -0.3, and opening nightclubs again might be a +1.1 policy.

    Re the WHO quote, it's important to put it in the context of what he said next. And when I say next, I mean the immediate next words out of his mouth...

    "There also is the issue that we have a massive global shortage. Right now the people most at risk from this virus are frontline health workers who are exposed to the virus every second of every day. The thought of them not having masks is horrific."

    Now, maybe I'm an idiot, but that doesn't sound to me like he thinks that masks might have no effect.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,235
    edited July 2020
    There's one vast and glaring difference here, of course: Nicola didn't have a Cummings. The shock waves that man's antics sent through the politic psyche of the nation were unprecedented. I doubt Boris will ever be truly free.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 15,243
    rcs1000 said:

    kle4 said:

    Jesus, that's the the best they could come up with?

    Washington's NFL team will be called the "Washington Football Team" during the 2020 season.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/american-football/53520772

    I get dropping the Redskins bit, but was it really impossible to have a placeholder name while they go through the process of choosing a new name and logo for the long term? Even the Washington Blandathons would be better.

    Seattle's new National Hockey League franchise just announced the new team's name: The Kracken.

    This was favorite with many locals, serious hockey fanatics as well as normal, decent folk.
    The Kraken Wakes (yes, I know, spelt slightly differently) was my favourite John Wyndham novel.
    Stand corrected, Seattle NHL team is The Kraken.

    Personally have no idea what a freaking kraken/kracken is/isn't. All I know, it's a VERY cool name - a STRONG name suitable for the blood sport that is ice hockey.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,846

    Are any PBers eager to contribute to the cause of VEXIT?

    With you contribution of just hundreds of pounds a day YOU can strike a blow for freedom in the hills, valleys and shopping centers of the Old Dominion, by helping fund the VEXIT movement among Republicans in the Shenandoah Valley and western VA for succession from rest of commonwealth which is dominated by Democrats.

    For all I know some lucky PBer (Charles this means you) might regain a old family estate confiscated during or after the American Revolution, for help given to the VEXIT cause at this critical hour?

    To be fair the area has history of breakaways.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 15,243

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Seems like either:

    Total capitulation in which we end up on a level playing field with the EU, fishing, state aid (may as well join EEA to save the economic damage)

    No Deal and the economy is fucked

    A UK and EU FTA would still allow us to end free movement and do our own trade deals unlike EEA but it would require the same regulatory alignment as EEA
    Trashes the economy though and we get no say over the rules we have to align with
    A FTA does not trash the economy, certainly not compared to WTO terms and it still meets the core reasons Brexit won ie to end free movement, leave the EU and do our own trade deals
    The Government's own analysis concluded a FTA would damage the economy
    The Cameron Government's own analysis I think you mean. And it does not have a good record on getting these predictions right. The prediction of a massive immediate recession if we even voted for Brexit was one of their good ones.
    No, the May Government
    Hahahahaha. That is even worse.
    Because a pro-Brexit Government is impartial then? ROFL.

    If Johnson's Government produced a report saying Brexit was an economic masterstroke you'd be here saying it was fantastic. If I called out its lack of impartiality you'd call me a muppet
    Nope. The argument for me has never been about economics. I subscribe to the Robert Smithson school of thought that it will be neither as wonderful nor as disastrous as the various sides make out. Something I have made clear all along. So yes you are a muppet.

    Edit.. though in fairness I see you as the Swedish Chef sort of muppet rather than the cantankerous old gits.
    I'm afraid I don't get your reference to a Swedish Chef.

    I think it will be bad and the whole thing will be a waste of time.
    Sorry I was trying to have a light hearted dig at you. The Swedish chef was one of the muppet characters. To my mind the best of the lot of them so it was a sort of complimentary insult.

    I forget how young so many of you folks are.
    He certainly got all the best lines! Jim Henson RIP
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789

    Are any PBers eager to contribute to the cause of VEXIT?

    With you contribution of just hundreds of pounds a day YOU can strike a blow for freedom in the hills, valleys and shopping centers of the Old Dominion, by helping fund the VEXIT movement among Republicans in the Shenandoah Valley and western VA for succession from rest of commonwealth which is dominated by Democrats.

    For all I know some lucky PBer (Charles this means you) might regain a old family estate confiscated during or after the American Revolution, for help given to the VEXIT cause at this critical hour?

    Their campaign slogan should be "Take Me Home".
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 15,243

    Are any PBers eager to contribute to the cause of VEXIT?

    With you contribution of just hundreds of pounds a day YOU can strike a blow for freedom in the hills, valleys and shopping centers of the Old Dominion, by helping fund the VEXIT movement among Republicans in the Shenandoah Valley and western VA for succession from rest of commonwealth which is dominated by Democrats.

    For all I know some lucky PBer (Charles this means you) might regain a old family estate confiscated during or after the American Revolution, for help given to the VEXIT cause at this critical hour?

    To be fair the area has history of breakaways.
    Yes! Personally find VEXIT amusing, because until recently the Old Dominion, in particular places like the Valley of Virginia, looked down their noses at the uncouthness that is West Virginia. We are digging he irony, that hoity-toity Virginians now want to embrace their lost hillbilly neighbors.

    They want to trade "Sic Semper Tyrannis" for " Montani Semper Liberi"
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,286
    "China warns it could stop recognising British overseas passports held by Hong Kong residents"

    https://www.itv.com/news/2020-07-23/china-warns-it-could-stop-recognising-british-overseas-passports-held-by-hong-kong-residents
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 8,631
    Anecdotally on mask usage the two local shops I do a lot of business in have confirmed that they will not be enforcing mask usage. I see about 15% mask usage when I was out today I am not expecting that to increase much. There is a perception that mask usage in shops has been imposed so they can relax restrictions in bars and restaurants which include not having to use masks. As most people don't visit bars and restaurants there is therefore a certain pushback.
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 3,853
    edited July 2020

    dixiedean said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    nichomar said:

    nichomar said:

    OllyT said:

    kle4 said:

    I hope I am wrong but I think the enforced mask wearing will make the Covid situation worse in the UK and that in 2 weeks new cases will be over 1000 per day. If face coverings were the solution then the WHO would have recommended them back in March but they didn’t. Countries where face coverings are far more prevalent than the UK are seeing rises in cases now and I fear we will be the same. Social distancing and hand washing have worked in the UK , Deaths are below average and the number of new cases is under control. There is no need for this change and I fear it will have the opposite of the desired effect.

    You don't sound like you hope you are wrong.
    Of course I hope I’m wrong as if cases go up the government will force mask wearing every time you go outside which is the case in Spain at the moment.
    I thought a couple of PBers who actually live in Spain told you you earlier that the rise in infections in Spain were mainly coming from situations where masks were still not worn, ie clusters from nightclubs. Are you ignoring that because it doesn't fit your agenda?
    I’ll find some breakdowns tomorrow of where these outbreaks are coming from but off the top of my head

    Night bars frequented by young people
    Family gatherings at home or in restaurants

    The first infections in this wave came from meat processing plants.
    In Spain you cannot go out without a mask on, if you do you face an instant fine. On the beach when you sunbathe you can remove the mask but as soon as you stand up you must put the mask on, yet cases are on the rise. I might be naive but I don’t see these results as evidence that mask wearing works.

    Family gatherings are allowed in the uk now and pubs are open and busy yet without forced mask wearing our new cases are less than Spain.



    Don’t count your chickens
    I’m not, we will follow Spain’s lead and make mask wearing mandatory and cases will rise
    Why might wearing masks cause cases to rise?
    It doesn't. @NerysHughes is smoking crack.

    If mask wearing wasn't effective at preventing the spread disease, then surgeons wouldn't bother wearing them.
    Nice comment!
    Masks are now mandatory in Spain and news cases doubled today to 2600.
    How is that evidence that wearing masks works.
    Surgeons wear a face fitted mask which is completely different to masks the public wears. It’s like saying wearing sunglasses is the same as wearing a welders mask.
    Now, I'm normally one of the most polite poster on PB, and you have previously shown no signs of mental retardation. A correlation, on its own, is no evidence of causation.

    Has anything else happened in Spain that might have had an impact on case numbers? Like, for example, nightclubs reopening?

    Have you noticed how the more people put up umbrellas, the more heavily it rains? It's the same effect.
    Here is Seattle, the umbrella is the badge of the Outlander. Few native-born "mossbacks" own one, and newcomers soon learn to keep the one they brought with them in the closet.

    There WAS an umbrella store in downtown Seattle for a few years. Went out of business about a year ago, the owner (originally from out of state) thought it would be a natural hit. Turned out the only business she got was from tourists.
    As a native of Lancashire I have never carried an umbrella. Few do. I found the Pacific Northwest a most familiar climate. A tad warm.
    Weather in Seattle, Vancouver & rest of coastal Pacific Northwest is indeed very similar to Ireland, Wales & north of England. Sunnier and slightly warmer summer & winter.

    Of course we do NOT correct outsiders (esp out-of-work cousins & Californicators) when they go on about how it always rains in Seattle. "Yeah," we say, "rains like hell - you probably wouldn't like it."
    I certainly didn't find it particularly wet when I visited a few times (winter and summer).

    The Olympics are a bit different though. It did rain a fair bit there...
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 15,243

    dixiedean said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    nichomar said:

    nichomar said:

    OllyT said:

    kle4 said:

    I hope I am wrong but I think the enforced mask wearing will make the Covid situation worse in the UK and that in 2 weeks new cases will be over 1000 per day. If face coverings were the solution then the WHO would have recommended them back in March but they didn’t. Countries where face coverings are far more prevalent than the UK are seeing rises in cases now and I fear we will be the same. Social distancing and hand washing have worked in the UK , Deaths are below average and the number of new cases is under control. There is no need for this change and I fear it will have the opposite of the desired effect.

    You don't sound like you hope you are wrong.
    Of course I hope I’m wrong as if cases go up the government will force mask wearing every time you go outside which is the case in Spain at the moment.
    I thought a couple of PBers who actually live in Spain told you you earlier that the rise in infections in Spain were mainly coming from situations where masks were still not worn, ie clusters from nightclubs. Are you ignoring that because it doesn't fit your agenda?
    I’ll find some breakdowns tomorrow of where these outbreaks are coming from but off the top of my head

    Night bars frequented by young people
    Family gatherings at home or in restaurants

    The first infections in this wave came from meat processing plants.
    In Spain you cannot go out without a mask on, if you do you face an instant fine. On the beach when you sunbathe you can remove the mask but as soon as you stand up you must put the mask on, yet cases are on the rise. I might be naive but I don’t see these results as evidence that mask wearing works.

    Family gatherings are allowed in the uk now and pubs are open and busy yet without forced mask wearing our new cases are less than Spain.



    Don’t count your chickens
    I’m not, we will follow Spain’s lead and make mask wearing mandatory and cases will rise
    Why might wearing masks cause cases to rise?
    It doesn't. @NerysHughes is smoking crack.

    If mask wearing wasn't effective at preventing the spread disease, then surgeons wouldn't bother wearing them.
    Nice comment!
    Masks are now mandatory in Spain and news cases doubled today to 2600.
    How is that evidence that wearing masks works.
    Surgeons wear a face fitted mask which is completely different to masks the public wears. It’s like saying wearing sunglasses is the same as wearing a welders mask.
    Now, I'm normally one of the most polite poster on PB, and you have previously shown no signs of mental retardation. A correlation, on its own, is no evidence of causation.

    Has anything else happened in Spain that might have had an impact on case numbers? Like, for example, nightclubs reopening?

    Have you noticed how the more people put up umbrellas, the more heavily it rains? It's the same effect.
    Here is Seattle, the umbrella is the badge of the Outlander. Few native-born "mossbacks" own one, and newcomers soon learn to keep the one they brought with them in the closet.

    There WAS an umbrella store in downtown Seattle for a few years. Went out of business about a year ago, the owner (originally from out of state) thought it would be a natural hit. Turned out the only business she got was from tourists.
    As a native of Lancashire I have never carried an umbrella. Few do. I found the Pacific Northwest a most familiar climate. A tad warm.
    Weather in Seattle, Vancouver & rest of coastal Pacific Northwest is indeed very similar to Ireland, Wales & north of England. Sunnier and slightly warmer summer & winter.

    Of course we do NOT correct outsiders (esp out-of-work cousins & Californicators) when they go on about how it always rains in Seattle. "Yeah," we say, "rains like hell - you probably wouldn't like it."
    I certainly didn't find it particularly wet when I visited a few times (winter and summer).

    The Olympics are a bit different though. It did rain a fair bit there...
    Olympic Mountains block much incoming, inclement weather from Seattle by giving us a "rain shadow" where it rains less than in the Olympics, or to the north and south, or to the east - the last due to rising elevation in Cascade foothills and mountains.

    However, Seattle still gets lots of grey, drizzly days. AND some when weather patterns - the Pineapple Express - send steady rain like a firehose pointing from Hawaii and landing across Western Washington.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,717
    edited July 2020
    Pagan2 said:

    Anecdotally on mask usage the two local shops I do a lot of business in have confirmed that they will not be enforcing mask usage. I see about 15% mask usage when I was out today I am not expecting that to increase much. There is a perception that mask usage in shops has been imposed so they can relax restrictions in bars and restaurants which include not having to use masks. As most people don't visit bars and restaurants there is therefore a certain pushback.

    From tomorrow as the news has started to emphasise anyone not wearing a mask in a shop will be committing a criminal offence and it only takes 1 of those 15% to be in a shop at any one time and report to the police those not wearing a mask in their vicinity in a shop premises
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 8,631
    HYUFD said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Anecdotally on mask usage the two local shops I do a lot of business in have confirmed that they will not be enforcing mask usage. I see about 15% mask usage when I was out today I am not expecting that to increase much. There is a perception that mask usage in shops has been imposed so they can relax restrictions in bars and restaurants which include not having to use masks. As most people don't visit bars and restaurants there is therefore a certain pushback.

    From tomorrow as the news has started to emphasise anyone not wearing a mask in a shop will be committing a criminal offence and it only takes 1 of those 15% to be in a shop at any one time and report to the police those not wearing a mask in their vicinity in a shop premises
    Ah the police who have already said they wont be enforcing it, you will have to wait to get your jackboots out
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774
    Pagan2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Anecdotally on mask usage the two local shops I do a lot of business in have confirmed that they will not be enforcing mask usage. I see about 15% mask usage when I was out today I am not expecting that to increase much. There is a perception that mask usage in shops has been imposed so they can relax restrictions in bars and restaurants which include not having to use masks. As most people don't visit bars and restaurants there is therefore a certain pushback.

    From tomorrow as the news has started to emphasise anyone not wearing a mask in a shop will be committing a criminal offence and it only takes 1 of those 15% to be in a shop at any one time and report to the police those not wearing a mask in their vicinity in a shop premises
    Ah the police who have already said they wont be enforcing it, you will have to wait to get your jackboots out
    In Los Angeles and New York, mask wearing in shops is mandatory, but there is no police enforcement, and compliance is 100%.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 8,631
    rcs1000 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Anecdotally on mask usage the two local shops I do a lot of business in have confirmed that they will not be enforcing mask usage. I see about 15% mask usage when I was out today I am not expecting that to increase much. There is a perception that mask usage in shops has been imposed so they can relax restrictions in bars and restaurants which include not having to use masks. As most people don't visit bars and restaurants there is therefore a certain pushback.

    From tomorrow as the news has started to emphasise anyone not wearing a mask in a shop will be committing a criminal offence and it only takes 1 of those 15% to be in a shop at any one time and report to the police those not wearing a mask in their vicinity in a shop premises
    Ah the police who have already said they wont be enforcing it, you will have to wait to get your jackboots out
    In Los Angeles and New York, mask wearing in shops is mandatory, but there is no police enforcement, and compliance is 100%.
    We will wait to see tomorrow I guess, I have a hard time believing that all the people that didn;t bother today are going to bother tomorrow
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,717
    Pagan2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Anecdotally on mask usage the two local shops I do a lot of business in have confirmed that they will not be enforcing mask usage. I see about 15% mask usage when I was out today I am not expecting that to increase much. There is a perception that mask usage in shops has been imposed so they can relax restrictions in bars and restaurants which include not having to use masks. As most people don't visit bars and restaurants there is therefore a certain pushback.

    From tomorrow as the news has started to emphasise anyone not wearing a mask in a shop will be committing a criminal offence and it only takes 1 of those 15% to be in a shop at any one time and report to the police those not wearing a mask in their vicinity in a shop premises
    Ah the police who have already said they wont be enforcing it, you will have to wait to get your jackboots out
    No they have said they will enforce it if requested because a customer is in a shop refusing to wear a mask in the vicinity of another customer or the shop owner.

    The law is the law and I for one will make sure anyone not wearing a mask in a shop in my vicinity will know it from tomorrow
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774
    Pagan2 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Anecdotally on mask usage the two local shops I do a lot of business in have confirmed that they will not be enforcing mask usage. I see about 15% mask usage when I was out today I am not expecting that to increase much. There is a perception that mask usage in shops has been imposed so they can relax restrictions in bars and restaurants which include not having to use masks. As most people don't visit bars and restaurants there is therefore a certain pushback.

    From tomorrow as the news has started to emphasise anyone not wearing a mask in a shop will be committing a criminal offence and it only takes 1 of those 15% to be in a shop at any one time and report to the police those not wearing a mask in their vicinity in a shop premises
    Ah the police who have already said they wont be enforcing it, you will have to wait to get your jackboots out
    In Los Angeles and New York, mask wearing in shops is mandatory, but there is no police enforcement, and compliance is 100%.
    We will wait to see tomorrow I guess, I have a hard time believing that all the people that didn;t bother today are going to bother tomorrow
    I remember laughing at the idea that people would obey the smoking ban in Spain. And yet they did.

    People are generally law abiding.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 23,944
    rcs1000 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Anecdotally on mask usage the two local shops I do a lot of business in have confirmed that they will not be enforcing mask usage. I see about 15% mask usage when I was out today I am not expecting that to increase much. There is a perception that mask usage in shops has been imposed so they can relax restrictions in bars and restaurants which include not having to use masks. As most people don't visit bars and restaurants there is therefore a certain pushback.

    From tomorrow as the news has started to emphasise anyone not wearing a mask in a shop will be committing a criminal offence and it only takes 1 of those 15% to be in a shop at any one time and report to the police those not wearing a mask in their vicinity in a shop premises
    Ah the police who have already said they wont be enforcing it, you will have to wait to get your jackboots out
    In Los Angeles and New York, mask wearing in shops is mandatory, but there is no police enforcement, and compliance is 100%.
    We will wait to see tomorrow I guess, I have a hard time believing that all the people that didn;t bother today are going to bother tomorrow
    I remember laughing at the idea that people would obey the smoking ban in Spain. And yet they did.

    People are generally law abiding.
    I expect people will follow the rules by and large, though there have been occasions when I have forgotten my mask when going out. There might also be a degree of uncertainty about the rules on food, and people might wonder why customers need to wear masks when shop staff do not, or indeed, why now.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 8,631
    HYUFD said:

    Pagan2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Anecdotally on mask usage the two local shops I do a lot of business in have confirmed that they will not be enforcing mask usage. I see about 15% mask usage when I was out today I am not expecting that to increase much. There is a perception that mask usage in shops has been imposed so they can relax restrictions in bars and restaurants which include not having to use masks. As most people don't visit bars and restaurants there is therefore a certain pushback.

    From tomorrow as the news has started to emphasise anyone not wearing a mask in a shop will be committing a criminal offence and it only takes 1 of those 15% to be in a shop at any one time and report to the police those not wearing a mask in their vicinity in a shop premises
    Ah the police who have already said they wont be enforcing it, you will have to wait to get your jackboots out
    No they have said they will enforce it if requested because a customer is in a shop refusing to wear a mask in the vicinity of another customer or the shop owner.

    The law is the law and I for one will make sure anyone not wearing a mask in a shop in my vicinity will know it from tomorrow
    I am sure you will and by the time the police arrive the customer is gone I suspect they will do the same as when you ring about your car being broken in to which is to say absolutely nothing
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,717
    edited July 2020
    Pagan2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pagan2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Anecdotally on mask usage the two local shops I do a lot of business in have confirmed that they will not be enforcing mask usage. I see about 15% mask usage when I was out today I am not expecting that to increase much. There is a perception that mask usage in shops has been imposed so they can relax restrictions in bars and restaurants which include not having to use masks. As most people don't visit bars and restaurants there is therefore a certain pushback.

    From tomorrow as the news has started to emphasise anyone not wearing a mask in a shop will be committing a criminal offence and it only takes 1 of those 15% to be in a shop at any one time and report to the police those not wearing a mask in their vicinity in a shop premises
    Ah the police who have already said they wont be enforcing it, you will have to wait to get your jackboots out
    No they have said they will enforce it if requested because a customer is in a shop refusing to wear a mask in the vicinity of another customer or the shop owner.

    The law is the law and I for one will make sure anyone not wearing a mask in a shop in my vicinity will know it from tomorrow
    I am sure you will and by the time the police arrive the customer is gone I suspect they will do the same as when you ring about your car being broken in to which is to say absolutely nothing
    If the customer is gone problem solved, no need for the police to evict them for refusing to wear a mask.

    People get prosecuted for breaking into cars every day somewhere in the UK
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 23,944

    rcs1000 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Anecdotally on mask usage the two local shops I do a lot of business in have confirmed that they will not be enforcing mask usage. I see about 15% mask usage when I was out today I am not expecting that to increase much. There is a perception that mask usage in shops has been imposed so they can relax restrictions in bars and restaurants which include not having to use masks. As most people don't visit bars and restaurants there is therefore a certain pushback.

    From tomorrow as the news has started to emphasise anyone not wearing a mask in a shop will be committing a criminal offence and it only takes 1 of those 15% to be in a shop at any one time and report to the police those not wearing a mask in their vicinity in a shop premises
    Ah the police who have already said they wont be enforcing it, you will have to wait to get your jackboots out
    In Los Angeles and New York, mask wearing in shops is mandatory, but there is no police enforcement, and compliance is 100%.
    We will wait to see tomorrow I guess, I have a hard time believing that all the people that didn;t bother today are going to bother tomorrow
    I remember laughing at the idea that people would obey the smoking ban in Spain. And yet they did.

    People are generally law abiding.
    I expect people will follow the rules by and large, though there have been occasions when I have forgotten my mask when going out. There might also be a degree of uncertainty about the rules on food, and people might wonder why customers need to wear masks when shop staff do not, or indeed, why now.
    I would, however, be surprised if people wear masks "properly" -- not leaving them round their necks between shops; not touching them; changing to a new mask if you do touch it. All in the government's guidelines.
    https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/face-coverings-when-to-wear-one-and-how-to-make-your-own
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 23,944
    Flu jabs to be extended to over-50s, and more schoolchildren. HMG is worried about the flu season coinciding with a second wave of Covid-19.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53515078
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    Good morning fellow mask wearers! Some of us have been doing this since March :D
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    Andy_JS said:

    "China warns it could stop recognising British overseas passports held by Hong Kong residents"

    https://www.itv.com/news/2020-07-23/china-warns-it-could-stop-recognising-british-overseas-passports-held-by-hong-kong-residents

    I quite like the idea that was mooted to give the Hong Kong residents a deregulated free port in the UK, and let them build themselves a new city.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614

    kle4 said:

    Jesus, that's the the best they could come up with?

    Washington's NFL team will be called the "Washington Football Team" during the 2020 season.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/american-football/53520772

    I get dropping the Redskins bit, but was it really impossible to have a placeholder name while they go through the process of choosing a new name and logo for the long term? Even the Washington Blandathons would be better.

    What is wrong with Washington Football Team?

    Liverpool Football Club don't feel the need to put another name after Liverpool. Plus any placeholder would be pressured to become the permanent new name, they'd end up with as many names as leaders of the Lib Dems in recent years.
    Presumably someone in Washington’s marketing team reckons that if they have a name for one season only, all the fans are going to want to this year’s jersey at $200 a pop?

    Liverpool Champions would work ;)
  • There's one vast and glaring difference here, of course: Nicola didn't have a Cummings. The shock waves that man's antics sent through the politic psyche of the nation were unprecedented. I doubt Boris will ever be truly free.
    That is undoubtedly,true and he has never really been forgiven for his role in brexit either However it also helps that the press in England has generally been fawning over sturgeon and the Scottish govt in spite of their record being somewhat patchy, https://reaction.life/london-media-is-letting-nicola-sturgeon-off-the-hook-on-covid-19-failings/
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518

    There's one vast and glaring difference here, of course: Nicola didn't have a Cummings. The shock waves that man's antics sent through the politic psyche of the nation were unprecedented. I doubt Boris will ever be truly free.
    No I disagree. I think it’s purely a numbers game. All perceptions about handling of the virus almost all come back to looking at the Worldometer “stats”. Which is a crude measure even without taking into account reasons why some countries may fare better or worse regardless of Government measures. It also generally judges larger countries worse because they have greater numbers by default. Sturgeon has also played a canny game of “finessing” what has basically been a common U.K. approach from the start to create a perception that she has been doing things differently.

    What ever happened to the “inquiry” into PHE reporting of deaths? Is it still ongoing? Of course any suggestion that England numbers of deaths has been inflated runs into the ONS and “excess deaths” stats. But the point is that perceptions are based on comparatives, not absolutes.

    As a matter of interest how do Scotland/wales compare on ONS/excess figures?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774
    Sandpit said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "China warns it could stop recognising British overseas passports held by Hong Kong residents"

    https://www.itv.com/news/2020-07-23/china-warns-it-could-stop-recognising-british-overseas-passports-held-by-hong-kong-residents

    I quite like the idea that was mooted to give the Hong Kong residents a deregulated free port in the UK, and let them build themselves a new city.
    Hong Kong isn't successful just because it's full of great people, it's also successful because it - and Singapore - have British style law, and close access to the fastest growing market in the world. Geography matters. Hong Kong is - if not the only - then certainly one of the great gateways to China and South East Asia.

    Could HK Grimsby really be the gateway to Europe in the same way?

  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "China warns it could stop recognising British overseas passports held by Hong Kong residents"

    https://www.itv.com/news/2020-07-23/china-warns-it-could-stop-recognising-british-overseas-passports-held-by-hong-kong-residents

    I quite like the idea that was mooted to give the Hong Kong residents a deregulated free port in the UK, and let them build themselves a new city.
    Hong Kong isn't successful just because it's full of great people, it's also successful because it - and Singapore - have British style law, and close access to the fastest growing market in the world. Geography matters. Hong Kong is - if not the only - then certainly one of the great gateways to China and South East Asia.

    Could HK Grimsby really be the gateway to Europe in the same way?
    Oh sure the geography of HK is an important factor in its success, but we owe the British citizens of HK an opportunity and ports are going to be an important part of post-Brexit trading and manufacturing in the UK.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,756
    alex_ said:

    There's one vast and glaring difference here, of course: Nicola didn't have a Cummings. The shock waves that man's antics sent through the politic psyche of the nation were unprecedented. I doubt Boris will ever be truly free.
    No I disagree. I think it’s purely a numbers game. All perceptions about handling of the virus almost all come back to looking at the Worldometer “stats”. Which is a crude measure even without taking into account reasons why some countries may fare better or worse regardless of Government measures. It also generally judges larger countries worse because they have greater numbers by default. Sturgeon has also played a canny game of “finessing” what has basically been a common U.K. approach from the start to create a perception that she has been doing things differently.

    What ever happened to the “inquiry” into PHE reporting of deaths? Is it still ongoing? Of course any suggestion that England numbers of deaths has been inflated runs into the ONS and “excess deaths” stats. But the point is that perceptions are based on comparatives, not absolutes.

    As a matter of interest how do Scotland/wales compare on ONS/excess figures?
    Entertaining that the strategic genius of BJ and Dom has been out-thought by the 'canny finessing' of Sturgeon. Alternatively maybe voters aren't as stupid as the Machiavelli of Barnard Castle thinks.

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1286340288936644608?s=20
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,724
    Scott_xP said:
    Oh dear how sad, Never mind!

    Applies, I think!
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,082
    Scott_xP said:
    Not only is Biden ahead, he is picking up votes in all the right places. The Dem vote is becoming more efficient.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,226
    Sandpit said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "China warns it could stop recognising British overseas passports held by Hong Kong residents"

    https://www.itv.com/news/2020-07-23/china-warns-it-could-stop-recognising-british-overseas-passports-held-by-hong-kong-residents

    I quite like the idea that was mooted to give the Hong Kong residents a deregulated free port in the UK, and let them build themselves a new city.
    Hong Kong isn't successful just because it's full of great people, it's also successful because it - and Singapore - have British style law, and close access to the fastest growing market in the world. Geography matters. Hong Kong is - if not the only - then certainly one of the great gateways to China and South East Asia.

    Could HK Grimsby really be the gateway to Europe in the same way?
    Oh sure the geography of HK is an important factor in its success, but we owe the British citizens of HK an opportunity and ports are going to be an important part of post-Brexit trading and manufacturing in the UK.
    HK is little more than the boot leggers back door in and out of Communist China. An avenue to raise offshore finance against highly dubious quality collateral, to circumvent exchange controls by creative legally grey means, and to provide a staging post for goods in and out the country. Take away HK’s financial equivalence and independent common law courts and it really is just another Chinese city.

    CPC have calculated (probably correctly) that killing HK’s economy is now a price worth paying for the boost it gives its nationalistic reputation on the mainland. It was 25% of China’s GDP at handover and is now just a few percent.

    Let’s take as many HK citizens as we can. Of those that relocate, most will want to live in central London or Manchester and it might be the only thing that saves the Covid hollowing out of our great cities that has been so vexing Sean.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 12,883
    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "China warns it could stop recognising British overseas passports held by Hong Kong residents"

    https://www.itv.com/news/2020-07-23/china-warns-it-could-stop-recognising-british-overseas-passports-held-by-hong-kong-residents

    I quite like the idea that was mooted to give the Hong Kong residents a deregulated free port in the UK, and let them build themselves a new city.
    Hong Kong isn't successful just because it's full of great people, it's also successful because it - and Singapore - have British style law, and close access to the fastest growing market in the world. Geography matters. Hong Kong is - if not the only - then certainly one of the great gateways to China and South East Asia.

    Could HK Grimsby really be the gateway to Europe in the same way?

    The people of Grimsby are crying for HK levels of social, environmental and consumer legislation.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 24,594

    alex_ said:

    There's one vast and glaring difference here, of course: Nicola didn't have a Cummings. The shock waves that man's antics sent through the politic psyche of the nation were unprecedented. I doubt Boris will ever be truly free.
    No I disagree. I think it’s purely a numbers game. All perceptions about handling of the virus almost all come back to looking at the Worldometer “stats”. Which is a crude measure even without taking into account reasons why some countries may fare better or worse regardless of Government measures. It also generally judges larger countries worse because they have greater numbers by default. Sturgeon has also played a canny game of “finessing” what has basically been a common U.K. approach from the start to create a perception that she has been doing things differently.

    What ever happened to the “inquiry” into PHE reporting of deaths? Is it still ongoing? Of course any suggestion that England numbers of deaths has been inflated runs into the ONS and “excess deaths” stats. But the point is that perceptions are based on comparatives, not absolutes.

    As a matter of interest how do Scotland/wales compare on ONS/excess figures?
    Entertaining that the strategic genius of BJ and Dom has been out-thought by the 'canny finessing' of Sturgeon. Alternatively maybe voters aren't as stupid as the Machiavelli of Barnard Castle thinks.

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1286340288936644608?s=20
    Johnson's implication that Scotland had seen a "relatively" good pandemic response, essentially because of Johnson, armed with the knowledge that opinion polling suggests his performance has been patchy to say the least seemed an odd direction to take. A sort of putting out the fire with gasoline approach.

    Sturgeon is right that Johnson has politicised the pandemic in Scotland, but why, when that seems to be the least optimal route to take?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,082

    alex_ said:

    There's one vast and glaring difference here, of course: Nicola didn't have a Cummings. The shock waves that man's antics sent through the politic psyche of the nation were unprecedented. I doubt Boris will ever be truly free.
    No I disagree. I think it’s purely a numbers game. All perceptions about handling of the virus almost all come back to looking at the Worldometer “stats”. Which is a crude measure even without taking into account reasons why some countries may fare better or worse regardless of Government measures. It also generally judges larger countries worse because they have greater numbers by default. Sturgeon has also played a canny game of “finessing” what has basically been a common U.K. approach from the start to create a perception that she has been doing things differently.

    What ever happened to the “inquiry” into PHE reporting of deaths? Is it still ongoing? Of course any suggestion that England numbers of deaths has been inflated runs into the ONS and “excess deaths” stats. But the point is that perceptions are based on comparatives, not absolutes.

    As a matter of interest how do Scotland/wales compare on ONS/excess figures?
    Entertaining that the strategic genius of BJ and Dom has been out-thought by the 'canny finessing' of Sturgeon. Alternatively maybe voters aren't as stupid as the Machiavelli of Barnard Castle thinks.

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1286340288936644608?s=20
    Johnson's implication that Scotland had seen a "relatively" good pandemic response, essentially because of Johnson, armed with the knowledge that opinion polling suggests his performance has been patchy to say the least seemed an odd direction to take. A sort of putting out the fire with gasoline approach.

    Sturgeon is right that Johnson has politicised the pandemic in Scotland, but why, when that seems to be the least optimal route to take?
    The obvious answer is because he is an idiot.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Good morning, everyone.

    Avowed looks very good. Think Elder Scrolls-style first person fantasy RPG set in the Pillars of Eternity world, made by Oblivion. May be Xbox-exclusive, not sure. Won't be out for a couple of years, though.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,724
    edited July 2020
    Foxy said:

    alex_ said:

    There's one vast and glaring difference here, of course: Nicola didn't have a Cummings. The shock waves that man's antics sent through the politic psyche of the nation were unprecedented. I doubt Boris will ever be truly free.
    No I disagree. I think it’s purely a numbers game. All perceptions about handling of the virus almost all come back to looking at the Worldometer “stats”. Which is a crude measure even without taking into account reasons why some countries may fare better or worse regardless of Government measures. It also generally judges larger countries worse because they have greater numbers by default. Sturgeon has also played a canny game of “finessing” what has basically been a common U.K. approach from the start to create a perception that she has been doing things differently.

    What ever happened to the “inquiry” into PHE reporting of deaths? Is it still ongoing? Of course any suggestion that England numbers of deaths has been inflated runs into the ONS and “excess deaths” stats. But the point is that perceptions are based on comparatives, not absolutes.

    As a matter of interest how do Scotland/wales compare on ONS/excess figures?
    Entertaining that the strategic genius of BJ and Dom has been out-thought by the 'canny finessing' of Sturgeon. Alternatively maybe voters aren't as stupid as the Machiavelli of Barnard Castle thinks.

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1286340288936644608?s=20
    Johnson's implication that Scotland had seen a "relatively" good pandemic response, essentially because of Johnson, armed with the knowledge that opinion polling suggests his performance has been patchy to say the least seemed an odd direction to take. A sort of putting out the fire with gasoline approach.

    Sturgeon is right that Johnson has politicised the pandemic in Scotland, but why, when that seems to be the least optimal route to take?
    The obvious answer is because he is an idiot.
    True, but remember everything done by the current Conservative government is, by definition, world-beating.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 24,594
    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "China warns it could stop recognising British overseas passports held by Hong Kong residents"

    https://www.itv.com/news/2020-07-23/china-warns-it-could-stop-recognising-british-overseas-passports-held-by-hong-kong-residents

    I quite like the idea that was mooted to give the Hong Kong residents a deregulated free port in the UK, and let them build themselves a new city.
    Hong Kong isn't successful just because it's full of great people, it's also successful because it - and Singapore - have British style law, and close access to the fastest growing market in the world. Geography matters. Hong Kong is - if not the only - then certainly one of the great gateways to China and South East Asia.

    Could HK Grimsby really be the gateway to Europe in the same way?

    Hmmm. A Singapore on Thames but up North. In principle I like that sort of clear blue skies thinking for which Mayor Johnson was revered years ago.

    As Grimsby is on the River Humber, perhaps a Bridge could come into the plans too.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,094

    Foxy said:

    alex_ said:

    There's one vast and glaring difference here, of course: Nicola didn't have a Cummings. The shock waves that man's antics sent through the politic psyche of the nation were unprecedented. I doubt Boris will ever be truly free.
    No I disagree. I think it’s purely a numbers game. All perceptions about handling of the virus almost all come back to looking at the Worldometer “stats”. Which is a crude measure even without taking into account reasons why some countries may fare better or worse regardless of Government measures. It also generally judges larger countries worse because they have greater numbers by default. Sturgeon has also played a canny game of “finessing” what has basically been a common U.K. approach from the start to create a perception that she has been doing things differently.

    What ever happened to the “inquiry” into PHE reporting of deaths? Is it still ongoing? Of course any suggestion that England numbers of deaths has been inflated runs into the ONS and “excess deaths” stats. But the point is that perceptions are based on comparatives, not absolutes.

    As a matter of interest how do Scotland/wales compare on ONS/excess figures?
    Entertaining that the strategic genius of BJ and Dom has been out-thought by the 'canny finessing' of Sturgeon. Alternatively maybe voters aren't as stupid as the Machiavelli of Barnard Castle thinks.

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1286340288936644608?s=20
    Johnson's implication that Scotland had seen a "relatively" good pandemic response, essentially because of Johnson, armed with the knowledge that opinion polling suggests his performance has been patchy to say the least seemed an odd direction to take. A sort of putting out the fire with gasoline approach.

    Sturgeon is right that Johnson has politicised the pandemic in Scotland, but why, when that seems to be the least optimal route to take?
    The obvious answer is because he is an idiot.
    True, but remember everything done by the current Conservative government is, by definition, world-beating.
    His idiocy isn’t yet world beating, but I concede that he does seem to be working in that direction.
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 3,346
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    nichomar said:

    nichomar said:

    OllyT said:

    kle4 said:

    I hope I am wrong but I think the enforced mask wearing will make the Covid situation worse in the UK and that in 2 weeks new cases will be over 1000 per day. If face coverings were the solution then the WHO would have recommended them back in March but they didn’t. Countries where face coverings are far more prevalent than the UK are seeing rises in cases now and I fear we will be the same. Social distancing and hand washing have worked in the UK , Deaths are below average and the number of new cases is under control. There is no need for this change and I fear it will have the opposite of the desired effect.

    You don't sound like you hope you are wrong.
    Of course I hope I’m wrong as if cases go up the government will force mask wearing every time you go outside which is the case in Spain at the moment.
    I thought a couple of PBers who actually live in Spain told you you earlier that the rise in infections in Spain were mainly coming from situations where masks were still not worn, ie clusters from nightclubs. Are you ignoring that because it doesn't fit your agenda?
    I’ll find some breakdowns tomorrow of where these outbreaks are coming from but off the top of my head

    Night bars frequented by young people
    Family gatherings at home or in restaurants

    The first infections in this wave came from meat processing plants.
    In Spain you cannot go out without a mask on, if you do you face an instant fine. On the beach when you sunbathe you can remove the mask but as soon as you stand up you must put the mask on, yet cases are on the rise. I might be naive but I don’t see these results as evidence that mask wearing works.

    Family gatherings are allowed in the uk now and pubs are open and busy yet without forced mask wearing our new cases are less than Spain.



    Don’t count your chickens
    I’m not, we will follow Spain’s lead and make mask wearing mandatory and cases will rise
    Why might wearing masks cause cases to rise?
    It doesn't. @NerysHughes is smoking crack.

    If mask wearing wasn't effective at preventing the spread disease, then surgeons wouldn't bother wearing them.
    Nice comment!
    Masks are now mandatory in Spain and news cases doubled today to 2600.
    How is that evidence that wearing masks works.
    Surgeons wear a face fitted mask which is completely different to masks the public wears. It’s like saying wearing sunglasses is the same as wearing a welders mask.
    Now, I'm normally one of the most polite poster on PB, and you have previously shown no signs of mental retardation. A correlation, on its own, is no evidence of causation.

    Has anything else happened in Spain that might have had an impact on case numbers? Like, for example, nightclubs reopening?

    There has been a very significant relaxation of the lockdown in the Uk, pubs are open, friends and families are meeting, Liverpool football fans are setting off fireworks, yet our new cases have continued a slight downward trend. Spain has bought in this new tougher mask wearing law and their cases are increasing quickly. It may just be down to. Nightclubs but aren’t masks supposed to stop the spread?

    If I am right and our cases start to increase quickly what would you blame it on ?

    Dr Mike Ryan WHO 31st March
    “ There is no specific evidence to suggest that the wearing of masks by the general population has any potential benefit, in fact there is some evidence to suggest the opposite.....”

    Even Dr Hilary agreed with him.

    I accept he is now saying something different , but that is quite a radical change of thought. Covid had been around for 3 months by the time of his original statement, and he must have based it on medical/scientific evidence.

    We will see how our case numbers are affected by the wearing of masks in two weeks as that will be the only parameter that has changed.

    There was no mask wearing requirement in Israel or Arizona or Florida or South Africa, and all those countries have seen CV19 numbers spike as restrictions have been relaxed.

    Case numbers have risen in places where restrictions have been relaxed. You need to think of it like a series of pluses and minuses to the viral reproductive level. So, facemasks in public may be a -0.2 policy, washing hands regularly might be -0.3, and opening nightclubs again might be a +1.1 policy.

    Re the WHO quote, it's important to put it in the context of what he said next. And when I say next, I mean the immediate next words out of his mouth...

    "There also is the issue that we have a massive global shortage. Right now the people most at risk from this virus are frontline health workers who are exposed to the virus every second of every day. The thought of them not having masks is horrific."

    Now, maybe I'm an idiot, but that doesn't sound to me like he thinks that masks might have no effect.
    I note that you state in another post that mask wearing is 100% in Los Angeles shops but fail to mention Los Angeles in your post here. Coronavirus is running rampant in LA and has been for weeks. Is this evidence of mask wearing in shops working?

    In regard to Dr Ryan why would he say there was no direct evidence of the benefit of masks if there was?
    And why have the WHO not been challenged on the "medical evidence" that made them change their view 100%. I have not seen anything published.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,328
    Foxy said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Not only is Biden ahead, he is picking up votes in all the right places. The Dem vote is becoming more efficient.
    I think he is picking up votes mainly in the burbs, which is where most of the independents are. I think he is doing that in all states, but it definitely seems to be having a disproportionate effect in swing states. I guess that is why they are swing states.

    It's got me wondering, are true blue states much more urbanized, red states more rural, and swings states more suburban. I think that is probably generally true.
This discussion has been closed.