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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Let us not forget how much Corbyn contributed to Johnson’s GE2

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  • Options
    LadyGLadyG Posts: 2,221
    Another bus just went by. 1 person on it (wearing a mask)

    3.40pm on a Friday. 98% empty.
  • Options
    CatManCatMan Posts: 2,761
    edited July 2020
    MaxPB said:

    CatMan said:

    MaxPB said:

    The price of a second TfL bailout should be automated trains.

    Expect a lot of resistance to that.
    Tbh, if they go on strike now the only people they hurt are essential workers. Let the RMT try.
    *Deleted* Too terrible even for me
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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    MaxPB said:

    A question for the PB Brains Trust. Does "general taxation" technically or otherwise mean anything specific in the UK? Is there any reason not to refer to the revenues of NI as part of general taxation?

    Furthermore is it reasonable or unreasonable to refer to state levied charges like the NHS health service surcharge that migrants have to pay as a tax?

    In my head NI is part of general taxation not a hypothecated tax and the surcharge is a tax levied on migrants regardless of what it's called. But is there any pedantic, technical or otherwise reason to disagree?

    NI used to be hypothecated to fund state pensions. Labour made it into a general tax and funded the state pension out of general taxation.
    That's what I thought.

    Someone I was arguing with on another site took objection to me saying that the NHS is funded by general taxation, and that the Health Surcharge is a tax that goes to general taxation from which the the NHS is paid for. They were trying to claim the NHS isn't paid for by general taxation and is part paid for by NI, to which I thought NI is general taxation.
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    algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 10,482

    A question for the PB Brains Trust. Does "general taxation" technically or otherwise mean anything specific in the UK? Is there any reason not to refer to the revenues of NI as part of general taxation?

    Furthermore is it reasonable or unreasonable to refer to state levied charges like the NHS health service surcharge that migrants have to pay as a tax?

    In my head NI is part of general taxation not a hypothecated tax and the surcharge is a tax levied on migrants regardless of what it's called. But is there any pedantic, technical or otherwise reason to disagree?

    This is just an opinion: It is in fact part of general taxation. It once had a separate status but in practice no longer does. Its political function now is keep the headline IT rate lower than it really is, and to hide the fact that higher IT rates are not as high as they sound as at higher levels you don't pay most NI.

    The other reason for not changing it is the oldest of all tax rules: "An old tax is no tax". Ask Mrs T what happened when she tried to change the rates which were anachronistic and senseless, but somehow didn't cause violence in the streets unlike.....
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,195

    I ventured into Sheffield city centre today after a four month interregnum.

    Have to report a really high mask usage.

    Edit - Apologies to NerysHughes if you're triggered by this post.

    Second visit to Ilford's Valentine's Park this week, first was on Monday. I would say most people weren't wearing masks. But at least there was plenty of space to avoid them!
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    Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    LadyG said:

    Really not good news. Crossrail's opening delayed yet again, with no new date announced. I sometimes wonder if it will ever open.

    Every night I see entirely empty buses trundle past my house. At some point TfL will just have to stop running them, and wasting all that money it doesn't have.

    This is how the Great Shrinkage will begin. Fewer buses and trains means even less reason to go into town, which means fewer people will bother, which means they will have to shrink the transport network further.... creating a terrible death spiral, and I do not know how we get out of it.
    I don't know about the buses, but one has to assume that at least the Tube, DLR and Overground will be kept operating at something approaching pre-pandemic levels? After all, National Rail has been running a full service with very few passengers throughout the Plague and looks like it will continue to do so.

    I wonder if the end point of this will be the Department for Transport using the need for large subsidies well into the future - together with allegations of mismanagement - as a pretext to humiliate the Mayor by seizing control of TfL? This is a notion that has only just occurred to me so I admit I've no idea whether that would require primary legislation to implement.
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    welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,460
    TOPPING said:

    Crosswords and puns.

    Can't do them.

    Happier as a result.

    Otherwise you’d be all across and down about them?
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 24,925
    MaxPB said:

    The price of a second TfL bailout should be automated trains.

    With platforms as they currently are it would be a nightmare as they are just not wide enough.
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,964
    I can confirm the Leeds Underground hasn't been affected by the pandemic.

    Admittedly, this is because it doesn't exist, but that doesn't alter the fact it's in better shape, relative to pre-pandemic times, than the Tube in London.
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,419
    LadyG said:

    Really not good news. Crossrail's opening delayed yet again, with no new date announced. I sometimes wonder if it will ever open.

    Every night I see entirely empty buses trundle past my house. At some point TfL will just have to stop running them, and wasting all that money it doesn't have.

    This is how the Great Shrinkage will begin. Fewer buses and trains means even less reason to go into town, which means fewer people will bother, which means they will have to shrink the transport network further.... creating a terrible death spiral, and I do not know how we get out of it.
    I wonder whether the infamous Brandenburg Airport in Berlin is also going to be delayed again. It's already about 10 years behind schedule. The main problem was that the chief engineer turned out to be un-qualified for the job.
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    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,946
    edited July 2020
    LadyG said:

    Another bus just went by. 1 person on it (wearing a mask)

    3.40pm on a Friday. 98% empty.

    Bus watching is a fascinating new PB pursuit. Almost rivals the soft fruit in supermarkets survey, 2017-19
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 24,925

    LadyG said:

    Really not good news. Crossrail's opening delayed yet again, with no new date announced. I sometimes wonder if it will ever open.

    Every night I see entirely empty buses trundle past my house. At some point TfL will just have to stop running them, and wasting all that money it doesn't have.

    This is how the Great Shrinkage will begin. Fewer buses and trains means even less reason to go into town, which means fewer people will bother, which means they will have to shrink the transport network further.... creating a terrible death spiral, and I do not know how we get out of it.
    I don't know about the buses, but one has to assume that at least the Tube, DLR and Overground will be kept operating at something approaching pre-pandemic levels? After all, National Rail has been running a full service with very few passengers throughout the Plague and looks like it will continue to do so.

    I wonder if the end point of this will be the Department for Transport using the need for large subsidies well into the future - together with allegations of mismanagement - as a pretext to humiliate the Mayor by seizing control of TfL? This is a notion that has only just occurred to me so I admit I've no idea whether that would require primary legislation to implement.
    Why would the Department of Transport want it - I would imagine any decent minister would do his best to keep the mess away from his department.
  • Options
    CatManCatMan Posts: 2,761
    Andy_JS said:

    LadyG said:

    Really not good news. Crossrail's opening delayed yet again, with no new date announced. I sometimes wonder if it will ever open.

    Every night I see entirely empty buses trundle past my house. At some point TfL will just have to stop running them, and wasting all that money it doesn't have.

    This is how the Great Shrinkage will begin. Fewer buses and trains means even less reason to go into town, which means fewer people will bother, which means they will have to shrink the transport network further.... creating a terrible death spiral, and I do not know how we get out of it.
    I wonder whether the infamous Brandenburg Airport in Berlin is also going to be delayed again. It's already about 10 years behind schedule. The main problem was that the chief engineer turned out to be un-qualified for the job.
    The person in charge needs to be more direct
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,419

    I ventured into Sheffield city centre today after a four month interregnum.

    Have to report a really high mask usage.

    Edit - Apologies to NerysHughes if you're triggered by this post.

    Second visit to Ilford's Valentine's Park this week, first was on Monday. I would say most people weren't wearing masks. But at least there was plenty of space to avoid them!
    People aren't supposed to be wearing masks in parks.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,955
    Andy_JS said:

    LadyG said:

    Really not good news. Crossrail's opening delayed yet again, with no new date announced. I sometimes wonder if it will ever open.

    Every night I see entirely empty buses trundle past my house. At some point TfL will just have to stop running them, and wasting all that money it doesn't have.

    This is how the Great Shrinkage will begin. Fewer buses and trains means even less reason to go into town, which means fewer people will bother, which means they will have to shrink the transport network further.... creating a terrible death spiral, and I do not know how we get out of it.
    I wonder whether the infamous Brandenburg Airport in Berlin is also going to be delayed again. It's already about 10 years behind schedule. The main problem was that the chief engineer turned out to be un-qualified for the job.
    Wasn't it something about it being a giant death trap because the fire system wasn't up to snuff?
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,184
    welshowl said:

    TOPPING said:

    Crosswords and puns.

    Can't do them.

    Happier as a result.

    Otherwise you’d be all across and down about them?
    QED
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,108

    LadyG said:

    Another bus just went by. 1 person on it (wearing a mask)

    3.40pm on a Friday. 98% empty.

    Bus watching is a fascinating new PB pursuit. Almost rivals the soft fruit in supermarkets survey, 2017-19
    But it doesn't quite match the moths of May and June.
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,184
    Andy_JS said:

    I ventured into Sheffield city centre today after a four month interregnum.

    Have to report a really high mask usage.

    Edit - Apologies to NerysHughes if you're triggered by this post.

    Second visit to Ilford's Valentine's Park this week, first was on Monday. I would say most people weren't wearing masks. But at least there was plenty of space to avoid them!
    People aren't supposed to be wearing masks in parks.
    I don't get the people wearing masks in their own (evidently non-taxi) cars.
  • Options
    Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    eek said:

    LadyG said:

    Really not good news. Crossrail's opening delayed yet again, with no new date announced. I sometimes wonder if it will ever open.

    Every night I see entirely empty buses trundle past my house. At some point TfL will just have to stop running them, and wasting all that money it doesn't have.

    This is how the Great Shrinkage will begin. Fewer buses and trains means even less reason to go into town, which means fewer people will bother, which means they will have to shrink the transport network further.... creating a terrible death spiral, and I do not know how we get out of it.
    I don't know about the buses, but one has to assume that at least the Tube, DLR and Overground will be kept operating at something approaching pre-pandemic levels? After all, National Rail has been running a full service with very few passengers throughout the Plague and looks like it will continue to do so.

    I wonder if the end point of this will be the Department for Transport using the need for large subsidies well into the future - together with allegations of mismanagement - as a pretext to humiliate the Mayor by seizing control of TfL? This is a notion that has only just occurred to me so I admit I've no idea whether that would require primary legislation to implement.
    Why would the Department of Transport want it - I would imagine any decent minister would do his best to keep the mess away from his department.
    I was just wondering if the Government might do it just to try to make Sadiq Khan look bad. He is Labour's principal holder of public office in England, after all. It's already responsible for throwing money at the railway network, and it'll end up having to throw money at TfL whoever is responsible for running it. Therefore, how much more harm would it do ministers simply to cut out the middle man?
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,195
    edited July 2020
    LadyG said:

    Another bus just went by. 1 person on it (wearing a mask)

    3.40pm on a Friday. 98% empty.

    12th March - last time I took a bus ride (Romford to Ilford (North))
    12th March - last time I took a main line train ride (Southend to Romford)
    12th March - last time I took a flight (Aberdeen to Southend)
    12th March - last time I booked a cab (to Aberdeen Airport)
    6th March - my last railway conquest (Aberdeen to Inverness and back)
    28th Feb - last time I rode the Tube (Gants Hill/Hainault/Woodford/Epping and back)
    27th Feb - last visit to London Zone 1 (Liverpool Street)

    #Withdrawal
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,200

    LadyG said:

    Another bus just went by. 1 person on it (wearing a mask)

    3.40pm on a Friday. 98% empty.

    Bus watching is a fascinating new PB pursuit. Almost rivals the soft fruit in supermarkets survey, 2017-19
    I propose Bus Hunting. The new replacement for bloodsports.
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,606
    Andy_JS said:

    LadyG said:

    Really not good news. Crossrail's opening delayed yet again, with no new date announced. I sometimes wonder if it will ever open.

    Every night I see entirely empty buses trundle past my house. At some point TfL will just have to stop running them, and wasting all that money it doesn't have.

    This is how the Great Shrinkage will begin. Fewer buses and trains means even less reason to go into town, which means fewer people will bother, which means they will have to shrink the transport network further.... creating a terrible death spiral, and I do not know how we get out of it.
    I wonder whether the infamous Brandenburg Airport in Berlin is also going to be delayed again. It's already about 10 years behind schedule. The main problem was that the chief engineer turned out to be un-qualified for the job.
    I think it's about to open, Berliners are pretty upset that Tegel is closing to make way.
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    squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,325
    new thread
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    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,200

    I can confirm the Leeds Underground hasn't been affected by the pandemic.

    Admittedly, this is because it doesn't exist, but that doesn't alter the fact it's in better shape, relative to pre-pandemic times, than the Tube in London.

    Perhaps something could be done with trebuchets and mutated haddock?
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,195
    Andy_JS said:

    I ventured into Sheffield city centre today after a four month interregnum.

    Have to report a really high mask usage.

    Edit - Apologies to NerysHughes if you're triggered by this post.

    Second visit to Ilford's Valentine's Park this week, first was on Monday. I would say most people weren't wearing masks. But at least there was plenty of space to avoid them!
    People aren't supposed to be wearing masks in parks.
    Protection against those cyclists and joggers who aren't wearing them?
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,195
    DavidL said:

    LadyG said:

    Another bus just went by. 1 person on it (wearing a mask)

    3.40pm on a Friday. 98% empty.

    Bus watching is a fascinating new PB pursuit. Almost rivals the soft fruit in supermarkets survey, 2017-19
    But it doesn't quite match the moths of May and June.
    Saw some yellow and black striped cinnabar moth caterpillars in the park today, on ragwort.
  • Options
    Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 13,776
    CatMan said:

    kinabalu said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I think the site should start charging for poor electrician puns.

    They're not even original. I think people are using a generator.
    What on earth are you talking about?
    I think he's right. An expert in his field even.

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Mr. L, I'd guess the self-employed are pretty starkly divided.

    If you can work from home, the impact might be next to nothing. If you can't (say, as an electrician) then you've been screwed for a long time.

    Hospitality's going to find things rough, alas. And that'll affect other businesses.

    Electricians have been shocked.

    It has not been a positive experience.

    Ah, my coat...
    I'm creating an app that will help you find local electricians.

    I'm calling it WattsApp.
    When is it going Live?
    Don’t worry, I’m sure TSE will give you amp-le notice.
    Actually, I'm feeling rather Neutral about the prospect!
    It is good to see that the Current users of this site enjoy the odd pun. It is particularly positive when you see it Alternating between those with different views.
  • Options
    LadyGLadyG Posts: 2,221

    LadyG said:

    Really not good news. Crossrail's opening delayed yet again, with no new date announced. I sometimes wonder if it will ever open.

    Every night I see entirely empty buses trundle past my house. At some point TfL will just have to stop running them, and wasting all that money it doesn't have.

    This is how the Great Shrinkage will begin. Fewer buses and trains means even less reason to go into town, which means fewer people will bother, which means they will have to shrink the transport network further.... creating a terrible death spiral, and I do not know how we get out of it.
    I don't know about the buses, but one has to assume that at least the Tube, DLR and Overground will be kept operating at something approaching pre-pandemic levels? After all, National Rail has been running a full service with very few passengers throughout the Plague and looks like it will continue to do so.

    I wonder if the end point of this will be the Department for Transport using the need for large subsidies well into the future - together with allegations of mismanagement - as a pretext to humiliate the Mayor by seizing control of TfL? This is a notion that has only just occurred to me so I admit I've no idea whether that would require primary legislation to implement.
    If people don't return to commuting, in numbers, I do not see how UK PLC can afford to run TfL as it was. The network is burning money the nation does not possess.

    Something has to give. They will close bus routes, end night buses, shut down more Tube stations, and so on.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,609

    Scott_xP said:
    I keep trying to work out the mentality of those who thought that was a good idea.
    They were focused on fighting the one true enemy - other people in the Labour Party - and that justifies all.
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,195

    LadyG said:

    Another bus just went by. 1 person on it (wearing a mask)

    3.40pm on a Friday. 98% empty.

    Bus watching is a fascinating new PB pursuit. Almost rivals the soft fruit in supermarkets survey, 2017-19
    http://www.londonbusroutes.net/photos/366.htm
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    Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    I can confirm the Leeds Underground hasn't been affected by the pandemic.

    Admittedly, this is because it doesn't exist, but that doesn't alter the fact it's in better shape, relative to pre-pandemic times, than the Tube in London.

    Given the Government's recent musings, one would've thought that York was in the queue to get an underground before Leeds?

    Of course, give it another hundred years and Leeds might've become a dormitory town on the outskirts of York. In Zone 10, at the far end of the Knavesmire Line.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,232

    NEW THREAD

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    Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 13,776
    TOPPING said:

    Andy_JS said:

    I ventured into Sheffield city centre today after a four month interregnum.

    Have to report a really high mask usage.

    Edit - Apologies to NerysHughes if you're triggered by this post.

    Second visit to Ilford's Valentine's Park this week, first was on Monday. I would say most people weren't wearing masks. But at least there was plenty of space to avoid them!
    People aren't supposed to be wearing masks in parks.
    I don't get the people wearing masks in their own (evidently non-taxi) cars.
    Yes, I have also noticed that and wondered the same. Perhaps they are worried that person they keep seeing in their rear view mirror that looks a bit like them and is also wearing a mask might be contagious.
  • Options
    Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 13,776
    kle4 said:

    Scott_xP said:
    I keep trying to work out the mentality of those who thought that was a good idea.
    They were focused on fighting the one true enemy - other people in the Labour Party - and that justifies all.
    Splitters!
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    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,200
    England case numbers - actual numbers -

    image
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,488
    edited July 2020
    LadyG said:

    Anecdata

    This is the toll of Covid-19 on just my close friends and family, so far:

    One friend lost her job at the beginning of lockdown
    One friend was laid off a few weeks ago
    One friend has just been told his job is going at the end of furlough
    One friend is a freelance and her work has dried up with no more coming
    One friend is seriously, possibly terminally ill from covid-related disease
    One friend has had covid very badly, and now has a cancer that her doctors suspect was triggered by the virus (this is a medical grey area)


    That's just people I know very well.

    The economic and medical depradations of covid-19 are already significant, if my case is representative

    I have lost two friends from church. Both older ladies but full of life and quite spritely before.

    Fox jr has had a hammer blow to his nascent acting career.

    Economically, not so bad otherwise. A couple of my colleagues found it the final straw and have taken early retirement. Can't be doing with all the PPE.

    An interesting chat with one of our Covid-19 doctors at lunch. Only 26 inpatients now despite all the hype about Leicester outbreak, but seeing a different spectrum of disease. Far fewer with respiratory disease, but more vascular and intestinal disease, renal failure, strange strokes etc. Weird stuff and some bad outcomes. Has the virus mutated, at least locally?

    I think the area has been flooded by swabbing, as only 1.7% of tests are coming back positive now. Track and Trace not able to contact 35% of index patients.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,200
    England case numbers - per 100k population -

    image
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    Approval Ratings:
    Starmer:
    A: 37%
    D: 23%
    NET: +14% (-4)
    Sturgeon:
    A: 37%
    D: 30%
    NET: +7% (-6)
    Johnson:
    A: 43%
    D: 38%
    NET: +5% (-5)
    Berry/Bartley:
    A: 17%
    D: 20%
    NET: -3% (-4)
    Davey/Pack:
    A: 15%
    D: 22%
    NET: -7% (-4)
    Which political party do you trust the most…
    With the economy?
    CON: 41%
    LAB: 27%
    OTH: 14%
    To tackle poverty?
    LAB: 37%
    CON: 27%
    OTH: 15%
    To tackle crime?
    CON: 38%
    LAB: 27%
    OTH: 14%
    To support the NHS?
    LAB: 37%
    CON: 31%
    OTH: 14%
    With immigration?
    CON: 36%
    LAB: 23%
    OTH: 17%
    To protect the environment?
    CON: 26%
    LAB: 22%
    GRN: 20%
    OTH: 12%
    To support the education system?
    CON: 33%
    LAB: 31%
    OTH: 17%
    With foreign affairs?
    CON: 37%
    LAB: 31%
    OTH: 16%
    To what extent, if at all, would you support a four-day work week?
    Support: 60%
    Oppose: 11%
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    RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 27,152
    On the train home having ridden my bike from Tees to Tyne. 100% mask use, albeit with a table full of lads taking them off to drink Stella
This discussion has been closed.