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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Some assorted Presidential election betting markets

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited July 26 in General
imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Some assorted Presidential election betting markets

Paddy Power have some interesting markets on the Presidential election, first up is the 1/4 on Biden winning the popular vote by five million votes or more, which would be more impressive than the near three million votes Hillary Clinton bested Donald Trump with in 2016.

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Comments

  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 3,750
    The most remarkable market is Betfair's gender of the next president (1.03 or 1/33 male; 25/1 female). Now of course the price will be hammered by Betfair's commission so this is not a tip, but it does remind us that nothing is certain this year.
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,719
    Off Topic - Apols.

    ***** Betting Post *****
    Despite all the negativity currently emanating from both the British and European negotiating teams as regards a trade deal being agreed and signed up by 31 Dec. 2020, the one betting market (Smarkets) offering such a market appears surprisingly confident that just such a deal can and will be done within this timescale.
    The latest traded prices being:
    Yes ..... 1.69 (59.17%)
    No....... 2.20 (45.45%)

    Am I missing something here on what looks like a good bet on no deal?

    As ever, DYOR.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 3,750

    Off Topic - Apols.

    ***** Betting Post *****
    Despite all the negativity currently emanating from both the British and European negotiating teams as regards a trade deal being agreed and signed up by 31 Dec. 2020, the one betting market (Smarkets) offering such a market appears surprisingly confident that just such a deal can and will be done within this timescale.
    The latest traded prices being:
    Yes ..... 1.69 (59.17%)
    No....... 2.20 (45.45%)

    Am I missing something here on what looks like a good bet on no deal?

    As ever, DYOR.

    Who defines what a deal looks like, and whether it is done?

    From Smarkets' market rules:
    If the UK and EU sign a trade deal between the 16th January 2020 and the 31st December 2020 this market will be settled as yes. If the trade deal is agreed in this period but comes into force at a later date, this market will be settled for yes.

    This market covers any trade deal, either sector by sector or a complete deal.

    If no trade deal is signed in this period between the EU and UK this market will be settled for no.

    https://smarkets.com/event/40554343/politics/uk/brexit/trade-deals

    So if even sector-specific deals count for "yes" then I'd not want to risk the rent money on "no".
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 31,859

    Off Topic - Apols.

    ***** Betting Post *****
    Despite all the negativity currently emanating from both the British and European negotiating teams as regards a trade deal being agreed and signed up by 31 Dec. 2020, the one betting market (Smarkets) offering such a market appears surprisingly confident that just such a deal can and will be done within this timescale.
    The latest traded prices being:
    Yes ..... 1.69 (59.17%)
    No....... 2.20 (45.45%)

    Am I missing something here on what looks like a good bet on no deal?

    As ever, DYOR.

    Who defines what a deal looks like, and whether it is done?

    From Smarkets' market rules:
    If the UK and EU sign a trade deal between the 16th January 2020 and the 31st December 2020 this market will be settled as yes. If the trade deal is agreed in this period but comes into force at a later date, this market will be settled for yes.

    This market covers any trade deal, either sector by sector or a complete deal.

    If no trade deal is signed in this period between the EU and UK this market will be settled for no.

    https://smarkets.com/event/40554343/politics/uk/brexit/trade-deals

    So if even sector-specific deals count for "yes" then I'd not want to risk the rent money on "no".
    There's a lot of "devil in the details" here. Does an air travel alone deal count?
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 3,198
    I wouldn’t touch Smarkets. Not a serious operation.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 6,100
    ydoethur said:

    Is it wrong of me to feel no sympathy for these people?

    Coronavirus: 'Devastated' travellers react to Spain quarantine rules
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-53541503

    If they didn’t know there was a risk of this happening, they’re idiots.

    If they knew the risk, and went ahead anyway, well, the risk went sour. Bad luck.

    If they knew the risk but thought it magically didn’t apply to them, they’re arrogant beyond the point of a Cummings or a Corbyn.

    There is a reason why I have booked an October break in Wales, rather than the Med as I usually try for. And I won’t be going abroad again until the Rona is under control.

    Yes, I will miss my nice sunny holidays, but I would miss two weeks’ pay much more.

    Nothing wrong with showing sympathy even if you agree with the rule.

    Surprised its not more local, whats going on in Barcelona, doesnt really have any impact on whats happening in the Canary Islands or Majorca. That would have been better but we should have learnt speed is important.

    It will be interesting to see the same commentariat blaming the govt being too slow to lockdown previously for being too quick to lockdown now.

    Perhaps they implemented it just so the rest of the cabinet dont have to see Shapps for two weeks, I couldnt blame them for that.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 30,103

    Perhaps they implemented it just so the rest of the cabinet dont have to see Shapps for two weeks, I couldnt blame them for that.

    I wonder if Durham is suddenly going to suffer an intense seven year lockdown at some point...
  • StockyStocky Posts: 2,885

    I wouldn’t touch Smarkets. Not a serious operation.

    Why do you say that? I use them a fair bit.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 34,831

    Off Topic - Apols.

    ***** Betting Post *****
    Despite all the negativity currently emanating from both the British and European negotiating teams as regards a trade deal being agreed and signed up by 31 Dec. 2020, the one betting market (Smarkets) offering such a market appears surprisingly confident that just such a deal can and will be done within this timescale.
    The latest traded prices being:
    Yes ..... 1.69 (59.17%)
    No....... 2.20 (45.45%)

    Am I missing something here on what looks like a good bet on no deal?

    As ever, DYOR.

    Who defines what a deal looks like, and whether it is done?

    From Smarkets' market rules:
    If the UK and EU sign a trade deal between the 16th January 2020 and the 31st December 2020 this market will be settled as yes. If the trade deal is agreed in this period but comes into force at a later date, this market will be settled for yes.

    This market covers any trade deal, either sector by sector or a complete deal.

    If no trade deal is signed in this period between the EU and UK this market will be settled for no.

    https://smarkets.com/event/40554343/politics/uk/brexit/trade-deals

    So if even sector-specific deals count for "yes" then I'd not want to risk the rent money on "no".
    I'm not in the loop on these discussions, but I strongly suspect that sector by sector, there are things both sides could sign up to tomorrow - if they were so minded. That the EU won't because it must have an over-arching level playing field deal is the only reason it won't. But if the UK holds firm on not conceding that, then do the EU leaders REALLY want nothing at all signed by year end?

    The EU can have

    1. No deal on level playing field and no deal on anything

    2. No deal on level playing field but a whole series of deals on everything else.

    Barnier getting 1. really would demonstrate that his months of meetings are not about pragmatism but instead about punishment.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 5,664
    The Spain thing. Plan A was we drive down there for our usual 2 weeks in August. Foresaw this kind of thing was likely so cancelled the accomodation a while back. Then Mrs RP was increasingly in need of seeing her Dadso a trip during term time in the autumn was mooted, until her TA contract was continued and extended so that nixed that.

    A cursory look on easyJet one day a couple of weeks ago showed some genuiely stupid prices. One adult 2 kids return including hold baggage for £360 return. In August. Ah sod it, worst they can do is impose quarantine for when you get back - which they have - but its the summer holidays, my kids enjoy hibernating with computer games anyway and we can just about squeeze 2 weeks hibernation in before we all go up to Scotland.

    C'est la vie. Here's thing though. Lets assume the government hasn't overreacted and isn't going to perform a uturn before the end of the day. This ends the travel and tourism industry. You can't postpone your holiday into next year because the hotels cafes restaurants at your destination will have gone bankrupt as will the airline you were going to travel with. Nobody will now book anything to go anywhere due to the Martini menace.

    And thats just the travel industry. The Spanish experience points the way to our own future where we spike again and stuff gets shut down, starting with the things the government of fools insist you can do safely indoors with no mask for profit such as gyms, cinemas, pubs, restaurants.

    The government are going to have to extend furlough and other support or face the consequences of the financial and political cataclyism that is 6m people trying to claim UC having been gaslit to think its plenty of cash only to find its three fifths of fuck all.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 5,106
    ydoethur said:

    Is it wrong of me to feel no sympathy for these people?

    Coronavirus: 'Devastated' travellers react to Spain quarantine rules
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-53541503

    If they didn’t know there was a risk of this happening, they’re idiots.

    If they knew the risk, and went ahead anyway, well, the risk went sour. Bad luck.

    If they knew the risk but thought it magically didn’t apply to them, they’re arrogant beyond the point of a Cummings or a Corbyn.

    There is a reason why I have booked an October break in Wales, rather than the Med as I usually try for. And I won’t be going abroad again until the Rona is under control.

    Yes, I will miss my nice sunny holidays, but I would miss two weeks’ pay much more.

    Indeed! What an opportunity missed.

    Government could have actively encouraged the spending of UK pounds in the UK, helping domestic hospitality trades and the balance of payments.

    Instead, presumably because the airlines are a powerful lobby group, it has been encouraging people to fly overseas and convert British pounds into Euros and "spaff" them into a Spanish nightclub urinal.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 10,739
    Stocky said:

    I wouldn’t touch Smarkets. Not a serious operation.

    Why do you say that? I use them a fair bit.
    The consensus on here before is that they do not have a good record of making the rules to markets clear / settling them properly. Obviously that doesn't matter much for most punters, but politics-wise apparently it has caused problems. This particular market is a good example.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 82,942

    Stocky said:

    I wouldn’t touch Smarkets. Not a serious operation.

    Why do you say that? I use them a fair bit.
    The consensus on here before is that they do not have a good record of making the rules to markets clear / settling them properly. Obviously that doesn't matter much for most punters, but politics-wise apparently it has caused problems. This particular market is a good example.
    They also had a tendency to arbitrarily void markets.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 26,970
    ydoethur said:

    Is it wrong of me to feel no sympathy for these people?

    Coronavirus: 'Devastated' travellers react to Spain quarantine rules
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-53541503

    If they didn’t know there was a risk of this happening, they’re idiots.

    If they knew the risk, and went ahead anyway, well, the risk went sour. Bad luck.

    If they knew the risk but thought it magically didn’t apply to them, they’re arrogant beyond the point of a Cummings or a Corbyn.

    There is a reason why I have booked an October break in Wales, rather than the Med as I usually try for. And I won’t be going abroad again until the Rona is under control.

    Yes, I will miss my nice sunny holidays, but I would miss two weeks’ pay much more.

    It was blindingly obvious that this was going to happen, it was even discussed extensively on here when travel 'bridges' were first being considered.

    But the holiday companies, airlines and media all lobbied hard and got their air bridges, only for popular destinations to have a virus outbreak and be removed from the list.

    The question now is how easily can the UK government enforce quarantine on tens of thousands of people on their return? Apart from a few idiots who post pictures of their life constantly, or 'famous' people who might get caught by the paparazzi, it's not going to be easy. Are we expecting police to knock on doors every couple of days to make sure you're home?
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 6,100
    Sandpit said:

    ydoethur said:

    Is it wrong of me to feel no sympathy for these people?

    Coronavirus: 'Devastated' travellers react to Spain quarantine rules
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-53541503

    If they didn’t know there was a risk of this happening, they’re idiots.

    If they knew the risk, and went ahead anyway, well, the risk went sour. Bad luck.

    If they knew the risk but thought it magically didn’t apply to them, they’re arrogant beyond the point of a Cummings or a Corbyn.

    There is a reason why I have booked an October break in Wales, rather than the Med as I usually try for. And I won’t be going abroad again until the Rona is under control.

    Yes, I will miss my nice sunny holidays, but I would miss two weeks’ pay much more.

    It was blindingly obvious that this was going to happen, it was even discussed extensively on here when travel 'bridges' were first being considered.

    But the holiday companies, airlines and media all lobbied hard and got their air bridges, only for popular destinations to have a virus outbreak and be removed from the list.

    The question now is how easily can the UK government enforce quarantine on tens of thousands of people on their return? Apart from a few idiots who post pictures of their life constantly, or 'famous' people who might get caught by the paparazzi, it's not going to be easy. Are we expecting police to knock on doors every couple of days to make sure you're home?
    It wasnt enforced before air corridors and wont be now. If 80% of people comply fully, 10% comply mostly and 10% are Cummings types the policy is probably still effective given the virus is still active in the UK anyway.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 20,282

    Stocky said:

    I wouldn’t touch Smarkets. Not a serious operation.

    Why do you say that? I use them a fair bit.
    The consensus on here before is that they do not have a good record of making the rules to markets clear / settling them properly. Obviously that doesn't matter much for most punters, but politics-wise apparently it has caused problems. This particular market is a good example.
    They also had a tendency to arbitrarily void markets.
    Coincidentally only when it went against whatever position their own betting teams had taken.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 26,970
    A reminder that, worldwide, this virus is still spreading, with the last few days recording the highest number of cases.

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 23,049
    Another drug from a decade back, which went nowhere at the time, being tested against Covid:

    http://www.ipharminc.com/press-release/2020/7/20/innovation-pharmaceuticals-brilacidin-inhibits-novel-coronavirus-covid-19-by-almost-90-at-the-lowest-concentration-tested-to-date-in-a-human-lung-cell-line
    Recently released in vitro data showed Brilacidin exhibited a potent inhibitory effect on SARS-CoV-2, the novel coronavirus responsible for COVID-19, in a human lung epithelial cell line—reducing viral load by 95 percent and 97 percent at two efficacious concentrations tested, compared to control (DMSO).

    It might show some efficacy, as it appears to show considerably more activity than Remdesivir.

    Similarly to (the British) Synairgen’s inhaled interferon, which has a possibility of being very effective indeed, it was in early human trials around a decade ago.
    Will be a few months before it’s in clinical trials again.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 28,710
    nichomar said:

    Of course we continue to view the pandemic through our own narrow field of vision, lockdowns in Leicester and holidays in Spain ruined whilst out in the real word the virus continues to escalate and spread causing problems which will take years to overcome. It’s not just third world economies being ruined it’s countries like Israel, Brazil etc. charities are crying out for help particularly those dealing with children but I bet they are getting little response, news coverage of what’s happening in the rest of the world is almost none existent. The real issue is no country can sort this out on its own as continual reinfection will happen from other parts of the world, the vaccine is the only real hope and needs to be universally available.

    https://www.thefore.org/the-raft-emergency-fund/

    We’ve now moved on from the emergency fund to a new, larger, resilience fund. There’s lots of support out there. The British people are incredibly generous
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 34,369
    Scott_xP said:
    I listened to that interview and despite Iraq Blair is still very switched on

    His comments are relevant but I doubt Boris will be in office if and when another referendum is agreed
  • @LaylaMoran: We must remove Boris Johnson’s isolationist and regressive Conservative Government. That’s why I’m not ruling out working with Keir Starmer - where it benefits the Lib Dems tactically and leads to progressive, liberal change.
    My interview in today’s @ObserverUK 👇
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 26,970
    edited July 26

    Stocky said:

    I wouldn’t touch Smarkets. Not a serious operation.

    Why do you say that? I use them a fair bit.
    The consensus on here before is that they do not have a good record of making the rules to markets clear / settling them properly. Obviously that doesn't matter much for most punters, but politics-wise apparently it has caused problems. This particular market is a good example.
    That's a really poorly worded market, and there's probably good reason why no-one else is offering bets on it. There's almost certainly going to be something signed between the two sides, so the question becomes the definition of what exactly was signed, rather than the fact of it. Also add the spin that each side will give to the document, and it becomes even murkier.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 14,546
    Layla on Ridge complaining that our civil liberties have come under threat during the pandemic. Is she friends with Peter Hitchens?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 23,049
    Sandpit said:

    ydoethur said:

    Is it wrong of me to feel no sympathy for these people?

    Coronavirus: 'Devastated' travellers react to Spain quarantine rules
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-53541503

    If they didn’t know there was a risk of this happening, they’re idiots.

    If they knew the risk, and went ahead anyway, well, the risk went sour. Bad luck.

    If they knew the risk but thought it magically didn’t apply to them, they’re arrogant beyond the point of a Cummings or a Corbyn.

    There is a reason why I have booked an October break in Wales, rather than the Med as I usually try for. And I won’t be going abroad again until the Rona is under control.

    Yes, I will miss my nice sunny holidays, but I would miss two weeks’ pay much more.

    It was blindingly obvious that this was going to happen, it was even discussed extensively on here when travel 'bridges' were first being considered...
    Apparently not to Grant Shapps ?
    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/grant-shapps-holiday-spain-quarantine-coronavirus-transport-secretary-a9638166.html
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 34,369
    tlg86 said:

    Layla on Ridge complaining that our civil liberties have come under threat during the pandemic. Is she friends with Peter Hitchens?

    What is she talking about
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 10,739

    @LaylaMoran: We must remove Boris Johnson’s isolationist and regressive Conservative Government. That’s why I’m not ruling out working with Keir Starmer - where it benefits the Lib Dems tactically and leads to progressive, liberal change.
    My interview in today’s @ObserverUK 👇

    I don't know if this is a good idea.

    I mean, I am genuinely unsure. If I were somehow magically made leader of the Lib Dems, I am not sure what I would do.
  • @RidgeOnSunday: Could Labour support another Scottish independence referendum?

    "Our policy is not to support an independence referendum" and Labour won't push for one says @JonAshworth

    He says Labour "is not a pro-independence party" and believes "in the strength of the union."

    #Ridge

    Finally
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 10,739
    Sandpit said:

    Stocky said:

    I wouldn’t touch Smarkets. Not a serious operation.

    Why do you say that? I use them a fair bit.
    The consensus on here before is that they do not have a good record of making the rules to markets clear / settling them properly. Obviously that doesn't matter much for most punters, but politics-wise apparently it has caused problems. This particular market is a good example.
    That's a really poorly worded market, and there's probably good reason why no-one else is offering bets on it. There's almost certainly going to be something signed between the two sides, so the question becomes the definition of what exactly was signed, rather than the fact of it. Also add the spin that each side will give to the document, and it becomes even murkier.
    I think of this as rules risk. The last time it caused a storm was Theresa May's exit date and associated arguments about her roles as PM and leader of the Conservative Party.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 34,369

    @RidgeOnSunday: Could Labour support another Scottish independence referendum?

    "Our policy is not to support an independence referendum" and Labour won't push for one says @JonAshworth

    He says Labour "is not a pro-independence party" and believes "in the strength of the union."

    #Ridge



    Finally
    Starmer has been pro union from day one and has said so on several occasions
  • @RidgeOnSunday: Could Labour support another Scottish independence referendum?

    "Our policy is not to support an independence referendum" and Labour won't push for one says @JonAshworth

    He says Labour "is not a pro-independence party" and believes "in the strength of the union."

    #Ridge



    Finally
    Starmer has been pro union from day one and has said so on several occasions
    He has but the party has not. Good to see consistent messaging.

    Now to get rid of Leonard
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 14,546
    Very good from Raab this morning. For once the government is in a good position and the criticisms look stupid and opportunistic.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 34,369
    It really is ironic to listen to the media having a go at HMG for acting too quickly on Spain, after months of arguing they have been so slow
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 34,369

    @RidgeOnSunday: Could Labour support another Scottish independence referendum?

    "Our policy is not to support an independence referendum" and Labour won't push for one says @JonAshworth

    He says Labour "is not a pro-independence party" and believes "in the strength of the union."

    #Ridge



    Finally
    Starmer has been pro union from day one and has said so on several occasions
    He has but the party has not. Good to see consistent messaging.

    Now to get rid of Leonard
    I agree 100%
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 34,369
    tlg86 said:

    Very good from Raab this morning. For once the government is in a good position and the criticisms look stupid and opportunistic.

    This is showing the shallowness and hypocrisy of our broadcast media

    Raab very good on Sophy
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 34,369
    Starmer has a big decision to make

    He will only cement his place if he withdraws the whip from Corbyn and all his fellow travellers post ECHR

    Labour will then be a credible force
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 5,809

    tlg86 said:

    Very good from Raab this morning. For once the government is in a good position and the criticisms look stupid and opportunistic.

    This is showing the shallowness and hypocrisy of our broadcast media

    Raab very good on Sophy
    He is telling porkies I e been pointing out that infection rates in Spain have been on rise for a week the Friday figures were lower than Thursday but he claims that it was Friday that made their minds up. Why didn’t They do it on Thursday?
  • eekeek Posts: 8,645
    edited July 26

    Starmer has a big decision to make

    He will only cement his place if he withdraws the whip from Corbyn and all his fellow travellers post ECHR

    Labour will then be a credible force
    Have you seen the ECHR report? How do you know it provides enough evidence that Corbyn should go.

    Starmer of all people will be careful, he won't do things without evidence...
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 5,206

    And thats just the travel industry. The Spanish experience points the way to our own future where we spike again and stuff gets shut down, starting with the things the government of fools insist you can do safely indoors with no mask for profit such as gyms, cinemas, pubs, restaurants.

    It's too early to tell with the gyms, but the rest of these places opened back up three weeks ago. If that was going to result in immediate cataclysm then there would've been some sign of it by now.

    In fact, there have been one or two cases of spreading events in pubs, but nothing on a large scale. The triage phone call stats remain flat. Hospitalisations continue to trend downwards.

    Now, even assuming that bringing the schools back doesn't muck everything up first then yes, this might change towards the end of the year when all those nasty coughs, colds and flu get going - but frankly we can't go back to April and sit at home pissing ourselves out of fear of hypotheticals. For all we know, firstly there may be at least a partially effective vaccine available by the Winter, so that we can substantially reduce both the severity and transmissibility of the virus, and secondly it may have been squashed to such low levels by that point that it simply can't spread around enough people without being intercepted to cause a second major outbreak anyway.

    At this point we must also remember that we didn't elect Labour last year and that, consequently, doing stuff "for profit" is not actually evil. If the re-opening of restaurants indoors isn't causing great chunks of the population to fall ill with Plague and start dropping down dead again - which the evidence suggests it is not - then what's wrong with that? The greater the opportunity for these business to make money, the better. And condemning the Government for its mistakes earlier in the year doesn't mean that it's not making the right decisions now.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 34,369
    nichomar said:

    tlg86 said:

    Very good from Raab this morning. For once the government is in a good position and the criticisms look stupid and opportunistic.

    This is showing the shallowness and hypocrisy of our broadcast media

    Raab very good on Sophy
    He is telling porkies I e been pointing out that infection rates in Spain have been on rise for a week the Friday figures were lower than Thursday but he claims that it was Friday that made their minds up. Why didn’t They do it on Thursday?
    I doubt HMG has been reading your posts and it is clear from Professor Van Tam that HMG acted immediately on their advice yesterday
  • BannedinnParisBannedinnParis Posts: 949

    @LaylaMoran: We must remove Boris Johnson’s isolationist and regressive Conservative Government. That’s why I’m not ruling out working with Keir Starmer - where it benefits the Lib Dems tactically and leads to progressive, liberal change.
    My interview in today’s @ObserverUK 👇

    I don't know if this is a good idea.

    I mean, I am genuinely unsure. If I were somehow magically made leader of the Lib Dems, I am not sure what I would do.
    I do agree with that.
    Where I am more confident is that I am 99.9 % sure that, if elected Lib Dem leader, she will be a disaster on many, many fronts.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 26,970
    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    ydoethur said:

    Is it wrong of me to feel no sympathy for these people?

    Coronavirus: 'Devastated' travellers react to Spain quarantine rules
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-53541503

    If they didn’t know there was a risk of this happening, they’re idiots.

    If they knew the risk, and went ahead anyway, well, the risk went sour. Bad luck.

    If they knew the risk but thought it magically didn’t apply to them, they’re arrogant beyond the point of a Cummings or a Corbyn.

    There is a reason why I have booked an October break in Wales, rather than the Med as I usually try for. And I won’t be going abroad again until the Rona is under control.

    Yes, I will miss my nice sunny holidays, but I would miss two weeks’ pay much more.

    It was blindingly obvious that this was going to happen, it was even discussed extensively on here when travel 'bridges' were first being considered...
    Apparently not to Grant Shapps ?
    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/grant-shapps-holiday-spain-quarantine-coronavirus-transport-secretary-a9638166.html
    Ha, there was always going to be a politician or two caught out as well.

    I really don't understand the people who feel the need to go holiday in the middle of a global pandemic, and I type this from one of the places that usually empties out over the summer as hundreds of thousands of people travel to escape the heat! Very few people are leaving here this summer, and the local beach hotels are doing good offers if people want to get away for a few days. Strict immigration controls and lots of testing have allowed entertainment venues to re-open, although with reduced capacities.

    With the number of cases worldwide still rising rapidly, places with a lot of travel were always going to get hit by a second wave once that travel resumed.

    I don't know anyone travelling for leisure reasons at the moment, among a group of friends who are all pretty frequent flyers. I've not been on a plane since January, and usually do three or four trips a month. I'll be staying off planes until I've had a vaccine, thanks very much!
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 21,105

    @RidgeOnSunday: Could Labour support another Scottish independence referendum?

    "Our policy is not to support an independence referendum" and Labour won't push for one says @JonAshworth

    He says Labour "is not a pro-independence party" and believes "in the strength of the union."

    #Ridge



    Finally
    Starmer has been pro union from day one and has said so on several occasions
    He has but the party has not. Good to see consistent messaging.

    Now to get rid of Leonard
    And replace him with whom?

    Of course with 40%+ of current SLab voters supporting Indy and a majority for indy ref II, you may have to replace some voters too.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 4,087
    It's proof positive that Starmer *may* be the leader. As yet there is very little proof in the pudding.

    It's a strange thing - yesterday in conversation I pronounced him with the Connery method "Schtarmer" - and the person I was talking to immediately thought of Allo Allo. It may have helped that I am still wearing my thin leather lockdown gloves outdoors.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 34,369
    eek said:

    Starmer has a big decision to make

    He will only cement his place if he withdraws the whip from Corbyn and all his fellow travellers post ECHR

    Labour will then be a credible force
    Have you seen the ECHR report? How do you know it provides enough evidence that Corbyn should go.

    Starmer of all people will be careful, he won't do things without evidence...
    If Corbyn remains on Starmer's back benches he will be totally compromised on antisemitism
  • MattWMattW Posts: 4,087
    nichomar said:

    tlg86 said:

    Very good from Raab this morning. For once the government is in a good position and the criticisms look stupid and opportunistic.

    This is showing the shallowness and hypocrisy of our broadcast media

    Raab very good on Sophy
    He is telling porkies I e been pointing out that infection rates in Spain have been on rise for a week the Friday figures were lower than Thursday but he claims that it was Friday that made their minds up. Why didn’t They do it on Thursday?
    Are Spain still leaving most of the deaths out of their figures, or have they gone back to the previous method?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 55,331
    ydoethur said:

    Is it wrong of me to feel no sympathy for these people?

    Coronavirus: 'Devastated' travellers react to Spain quarantine rules
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-53541503

    If they didn’t know there was a risk of this happening, they’re idiots.

    If they knew the risk, and went ahead anyway, well, the risk went sour. Bad luck.

    If they knew the risk but thought it magically didn’t apply to them, they’re arrogant beyond the point of a Cummings or a Corbyn.

    There is a reason why I have booked an October break in Wales, rather than the Med as I usually try for. And I won’t be going abroad again until the Rona is under control.

    Yes, I will miss my nice sunny holidays, but I would miss two weeks’ pay much more.

    I have sympathy, but only so much. As you say it's bad luck, but if they whinge about it I lose that sympathy.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 34,831
    MattW said:

    It's proof positive that Starmer *may* be the leader. As yet there is very little proof in the pudding.

    It's a strange thing - yesterday in conversation I pronounced him with the Connery method "Schtarmer" - and the person I was talking to immediately thought of Allo Allo. It may have helped that I am still wearing my thin leather lockdown gloves outdoors.
    Good moaning....
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 34,369

    @RidgeOnSunday: Could Labour support another Scottish independence referendum?

    "Our policy is not to support an independence referendum" and Labour won't push for one says @JonAshworth

    He says Labour "is not a pro-independence party" and believes "in the strength of the union."

    #Ridge



    Finally
    Starmer has been pro union from day one and has said so on several occasions
    He has but the party has not. Good to see consistent messaging.

    Now to get rid of Leonard
    And replace him with whom?

    Of course with 40%+ of current SLab voters supporting Indy and a majority for indy ref II, you may have to replace some voters too.
    Counting chickens and complacency on show
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 5,809

    nichomar said:

    tlg86 said:

    Very good from Raab this morning. For once the government is in a good position and the criticisms look stupid and opportunistic.

    This is showing the shallowness and hypocrisy of our broadcast media

    Raab very good on Sophy
    He is telling porkies I e been pointing out that infection rates in Spain have been on rise for a week the Friday figures were lower than Thursday but he claims that it was Friday that made their minds up. Why didn’t They do it on Thursday?
    I doubt HMG has been reading your posts and it is clear from Professor Van Tam that HMG acted immediately on their advice yesterday
    If I can see the data so can he, they didn’t want to eclipse Johnson’s first anniversary bollocks. In six weeks time Spain will be imposing quarantine on visitors from the UK as they find themselves in the same situation.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 23,049
    Detailed review article in the Lancet on infectious aerosols.

    Particle sizes of infectious aerosols: implications for infection control
    https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanres/article/PIIS2213-2600(20)30323-4/fulltext
    ... These data show that infectious aerosols from humans exist in a wide range of particle sizes that are strikingly consistent across studies, methods, and pathogens. There is no evidence to support the concept that most respiratory infections are associated with primarily large droplet transmission. In fact, small particle aerosols are the rule, rather than the exception, contrary to current guidelines.12 These small particles occur without a need for a prolonged time to allow for desiccation, and they are of a size that is immediately respirable. These data also add evidence that could update the current dichotomous infection control guidelines, as was proposed 9 years ago....
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 34,369
    nichomar said:

    nichomar said:

    tlg86 said:

    Very good from Raab this morning. For once the government is in a good position and the criticisms look stupid and opportunistic.

    This is showing the shallowness and hypocrisy of our broadcast media

    Raab very good on Sophy
    He is telling porkies I e been pointing out that infection rates in Spain have been on rise for a week the Friday figures were lower than Thursday but he claims that it was Friday that made their minds up. Why didn’t They do it on Thursday?
    I doubt HMG has been reading your posts and it is clear from Professor Van Tam that HMG acted immediately on their advice yesterday
    If I can see the data so can he, they didn’t want to eclipse Johnson’s first anniversary bollocks. In six weeks time Spain will be imposing quarantine on visitors from the UK as they find themselves in the same situation.
    Utter nonsense though I expect Spain will see most of Europe following UK
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 34,831

    eek said:

    Starmer has a big decision to make

    He will only cement his place if he withdraws the whip from Corbyn and all his fellow travellers post ECHR

    Labour will then be a credible force
    Have you seen the ECHR report? How do you know it provides enough evidence that Corbyn should go.

    Starmer of all people will be careful, he won't do things without evidence...
    If Corbyn remains on Starmer's back benches he will be totally compromised on antisemitism
    Yet if he boots him out, Starmer has to answer the question "If Corbyn was so beyond the pale he had to be expelled, how could you justify being at his side in his Shadow Cabinet for so long?" Answering "so I could replace him" hardly satisfies that question.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 26,970
    edited July 26

    Sandpit said:

    Stocky said:

    I wouldn’t touch Smarkets. Not a serious operation.

    Why do you say that? I use them a fair bit.
    The consensus on here before is that they do not have a good record of making the rules to markets clear / settling them properly. Obviously that doesn't matter much for most punters, but politics-wise apparently it has caused problems. This particular market is a good example.
    That's a really poorly worded market, and there's probably good reason why no-one else is offering bets on it. There's almost certainly going to be something signed between the two sides, so the question becomes the definition of what exactly was signed, rather than the fact of it. Also add the spin that each side will give to the document, and it becomes even murkier.
    I think of this as rules risk. The last time it caused a storm was Theresa May's exit date and associated arguments about her roles as PM and leader of the Conservative Party.
    Yes, that one was a nightmare for Betfair, she resigned as party leader on a specific date to allow the content to replace her to begin, but remained (or became, depending on your point of view) temporary leader during the contest. BF settled on her ceasing to be leader on the date at the end of the contest, rather than the date at the beginning (which cost me a few quid, annoyingly!).

    It's a difficulty of making markets, to consider all the many ways in which the outcome might not be straightforward. But that's why they earn their commission.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 4,087
    edited July 26

    @LaylaMoran: We must remove Boris Johnson’s isolationist and regressive Conservative Government. That’s why I’m not ruling out working with Keir Starmer - where it benefits the Lib Dems tactically and leads to progressive, liberal change.
    My interview in today’s @ObserverUK 👇

    Not a Layla fan, but I do like the laptop on a pile of books.

    Is that a Shirley Williams, and what is "The Garden Nook". Either gardening or am I hearing echoes of Bloomsbury Group, which would be very Layla.

    The Mac is a black mark, however.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 5,206
    nichomar said:

    tlg86 said:

    Very good from Raab this morning. For once the government is in a good position and the criticisms look stupid and opportunistic.

    This is showing the shallowness and hypocrisy of our broadcast media

    Raab very good on Sophy
    He is telling porkies I e been pointing out that infection rates in Spain have been on rise for a week the Friday figures were lower than Thursday but he claims that it was Friday that made their minds up. Why didn’t They do it on Thursday?
    Regardless of what the Government does in situations like this it can't win. Anyone looking for an attack line will either say that it didn't act quite quickly enough or it was precipitous. Exactly the same thing would've happened if it had waited two days or two weeks before hitting Spain with the ban hammer.

    Now, personally I'd rather they'd never put themselves into the situation in the first place by simply keeping the advice not to travel abroad full stop, and encourage the populace either to save its money or take its holidays here. But we are where we are, and the Spanish situation seems to me to have been handled properly.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 74,050
    The polling suggests Trump has improved his voteshare relative to 2016 with the richest voters, who tend to be concentrated in coastal states but is doing worse with middle income and low income voters who Biden is doing better with than Hillary and who tend to be more concentrated in the rustbelt swing states.

    That suggests Biden is better placed than Hillary to win the Electoral College but Trump could do better than he did in 2016 in coastal states like California and in the popular vote if he recovers with middle income voters too
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 55,331
    Scott_xP said:
    Of course it is. Government cannot fix all the problems in the world. Sure they over promise, but we really expect too much from all governments.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 5,809

    nichomar said:

    nichomar said:

    tlg86 said:

    Very good from Raab this morning. For once the government is in a good position and the criticisms look stupid and opportunistic.

    This is showing the shallowness and hypocrisy of our broadcast media

    Raab very good on Sophy
    He is telling porkies I e been pointing out that infection rates in Spain have been on rise for a week the Friday figures were lower than Thursday but he claims that it was Friday that made their minds up. Why didn’t They do it on Thursday?
    I doubt HMG has been reading your posts and it is clear from Professor Van Tam that HMG acted immediately on their advice yesterday
    If I can see the data so can he, they didn’t want to eclipse Johnson’s first anniversary bollocks. In six weeks time Spain will be imposing quarantine on visitors from the UK as they find themselves in the same situation.
    Utter nonsense though I expect Spain will see most of Europe following UK
    You will see rises across Europe, what makes you think the UK will avoid a similar increase as lockdown unwinds.
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,281
    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    ydoethur said:

    Is it wrong of me to feel no sympathy for these people?

    Coronavirus: 'Devastated' travellers react to Spain quarantine rules
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-53541503

    If they didn’t know there was a risk of this happening, they’re idiots.

    If they knew the risk, and went ahead anyway, well, the risk went sour. Bad luck.

    If they knew the risk but thought it magically didn’t apply to them, they’re arrogant beyond the point of a Cummings or a Corbyn.

    There is a reason why I have booked an October break in Wales, rather than the Med as I usually try for. And I won’t be going abroad again until the Rona is under control.

    Yes, I will miss my nice sunny holidays, but I would miss two weeks’ pay much more.

    It was blindingly obvious that this was going to happen, it was even discussed extensively on here when travel 'bridges' were first being considered...
    Apparently not to Grant Shapps ?
    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/grant-shapps-holiday-spain-quarantine-coronavirus-transport-secretary-a9638166.html
    Ha, there was always going to be a politician or two caught out as well.

    I really don't understand the people who feel the need to go holiday in the middle of a global pandemic, and I type this from one of the places that usually empties out over the summer as hundreds of thousands of people travel to escape the heat! Very few people are leaving here this summer, and the local beach hotels are doing good offers if people want to get away for a few days. Strict immigration controls and lots of testing have allowed entertainment venues to re-open, although with reduced capacities.

    With the number of cases worldwide still rising rapidly, places with a lot of travel were always going to get hit by a second wave once that travel resumed.

    I don't know anyone travelling for leisure reasons at the moment, among a group of friends who are all pretty frequent flyers. I've not been on a plane since January, and usually do three or four trips a month. I'll be staying off planes until I've had a vaccine, thanks very much!
    Quite. It’s utterly beyond me why anyone would not see travelling abroad as a huge risk right now, given it’s an unpredictable fast moving situation.

    If you’re in a position to quarantine when you get back, and do it 100% well ok I guess, but I still think it’s frankly just a bit daft.

    The Govt seems, hopefully, to be learning, on a brighter note. They’re clearly of the view now that lockdown was too late ( why is for the enquiry ), and that if anything erring on the side of not faffing around with local lockdowns and travel restrictions is the way forwards.

    There is going to be a lot of stop/start till we get a vaccine.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 20,282
    nichomar said:

    nichomar said:

    nichomar said:

    tlg86 said:

    Very good from Raab this morning. For once the government is in a good position and the criticisms look stupid and opportunistic.

    This is showing the shallowness and hypocrisy of our broadcast media

    Raab very good on Sophy
    He is telling porkies I e been pointing out that infection rates in Spain have been on rise for a week the Friday figures were lower than Thursday but he claims that it was Friday that made their minds up. Why didn’t They do it on Thursday?
    I doubt HMG has been reading your posts and it is clear from Professor Van Tam that HMG acted immediately on their advice yesterday
    If I can see the data so can he, they didn’t want to eclipse Johnson’s first anniversary bollocks. In six weeks time Spain will be imposing quarantine on visitors from the UK as they find themselves in the same situation.
    Utter nonsense though I expect Spain will see most of Europe following UK
    You will see rises across Europe, what makes you think the UK will avoid a similar increase as lockdown unwinds.
    Nightclubs aren't open. That seems to be the common link among countries that have seen the start of a second wave.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 55,331
    eek said:

    Starmer has a big decision to make

    He will only cement his place if he withdraws the whip from Corbyn and all his fellow travellers post ECHR

    Labour will then be a credible force
    Have you seen the ECHR report? How do you know it provides enough evidence that Corbyn should go.

    Starmer of all people will be careful, he won't do things without evidence...
    Quite. Expectations on reports, whether from government, select committees or whoever, tend to be over hyped.

    I do wonder what could possibly be in there that was not already known for alleged in respect of Corbyn personally.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 34,369
    nichomar said:

    nichomar said:

    nichomar said:

    tlg86 said:

    Very good from Raab this morning. For once the government is in a good position and the criticisms look stupid and opportunistic.

    This is showing the shallowness and hypocrisy of our broadcast media

    Raab very good on Sophy
    He is telling porkies I e been pointing out that infection rates in Spain have been on rise for a week the Friday figures were lower than Thursday but he claims that it was Friday that made their minds up. Why didn’t They do it on Thursday?
    I doubt HMG has been reading your posts and it is clear from Professor Van Tam that HMG acted immediately on their advice yesterday
    If I can see the data so can he, they didn’t want to eclipse Johnson’s first anniversary bollocks. In six weeks time Spain will be imposing quarantine on visitors from the UK as they find themselves in the same situation.
    Utter nonsense though I expect Spain will see most of Europe following UK
    You will see rises across Europe, what makes you think the UK will avoid a similar increase as lockdown unwinds.
    I don't but it is good to see HMG acting instantly and the complaints it was too quick is just hypocrisy
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 5,202

    @LaylaMoran: We must remove Boris Johnson’s isolationist and regressive Conservative Government. That’s why I’m not ruling out working with Keir Starmer - where it benefits the Lib Dems tactically and leads to progressive, liberal change.
    My interview in today’s @ObserverUK 👇

    Sun's out. Gums out.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 12,809

    Off Topic - Apols.

    ***** Betting Post *****
    Despite all the negativity currently emanating from both the British and European negotiating teams as regards a trade deal being agreed and signed up by 31 Dec. 2020, the one betting market (Smarkets) offering such a market appears surprisingly confident that just such a deal can and will be done within this timescale.
    The latest traded prices being:
    Yes ..... 1.69 (59.17%)
    No....... 2.20 (45.45%)

    Am I missing something here on what looks like a good bet on no deal?

    As ever, DYOR.

    Gosh that's interesting but imo for quite the opposite reason. As I've posted many times my very strong view is that "No Deal" - "WTO" - is a non-starter on every level and so some sort of Deal is a virtual certainty.

    1.69 is therefore unbelievable value. Tempted to open an account with Smarkets just to do it.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 55,331

    eek said:

    Starmer has a big decision to make

    He will only cement his place if he withdraws the whip from Corbyn and all his fellow travellers post ECHR

    Labour will then be a credible force
    Have you seen the ECHR report? How do you know it provides enough evidence that Corbyn should go.

    Starmer of all people will be careful, he won't do things without evidence...
    If Corbyn remains on Starmer's back benches he will be totally compromised on antisemitism
    Yet if he boots him out, Starmer has to answer the question "If Corbyn was so beyond the pale he had to be expelled, how could you justify being at his side in his Shadow Cabinet for so long?" Answering "so I could replace him" hardly satisfies that question.
    Whereas unless theres a smoking gun on Corbyn he can just say he, Starmer, did as much as he could and gave the leader at the time the opportunity to fix things but sadly he clearly failed. Best case scenario Corbyn leaves in outrage, other case Corbyn reverts to his grumpy backbench sullenness and is just an awkward squad member who party members hopefully stop idolising .
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 5,202



    I mean, I am genuinely unsure. If I were somehow magically made leader of the Lib Dems, I am not sure what I would do.

    Legalise cannabis.
    UBI.
    Abolish HoL.
    Fully federal UK with English parliament in Hunstanton.
    Free broadband.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 5,809

    nichomar said:

    nichomar said:

    nichomar said:

    tlg86 said:

    Very good from Raab this morning. For once the government is in a good position and the criticisms look stupid and opportunistic.

    This is showing the shallowness and hypocrisy of our broadcast media

    Raab very good on Sophy
    He is telling porkies I e been pointing out that infection rates in Spain have been on rise for a week the Friday figures were lower than Thursday but he claims that it was Friday that made their minds up. Why didn’t They do it on Thursday?
    I doubt HMG has been reading your posts and it is clear from Professor Van Tam that HMG acted immediately on their advice yesterday
    If I can see the data so can he, they didn’t want to eclipse Johnson’s first anniversary bollocks. In six weeks time Spain will be imposing quarantine on visitors from the UK as they find themselves in the same situation.
    Utter nonsense though I expect Spain will see most of Europe following UK
    You will see rises across Europe, what makes you think the UK will avoid a similar increase as lockdown unwinds.
    I don't but it is good to see HMG acting instantly and the complaints it was too quick is just hypocrisy
    Actually I’m pleased they have introduced the quarantine as it will reduce the numbers of people coming to Spain and hence reduce infections. It’s bad enough with. the Spanish holiday makers ‘invading’ very stable communities that have not seen a single infection for seven to ten weeks and now have multiple single figure case outbreaks. It’s what makes mask wearing so important, respect for the community in which you move around in.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 19,198
    Dura_Ace said:



    I mean, I am genuinely unsure. If I were somehow magically made leader of the Lib Dems, I am not sure what I would do.

    Legalise cannabis.
    UBI.
    Abolish HoL.
    Fully federal UK with English parliament in Hunstanton.
    Free broadband.
    What have you got against Hunstanton that it be infested with MP's etc?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 55,331
    edited July 26
    Dura_Ace said:



    I mean, I am genuinely unsure. If I were somehow magically made leader of the Lib Dems, I am not sure what I would do.

    Legalise cannabis.
    UBI.
    Abolish HoL.
    Fully federal UK with English parliament in Hunstanton.
    Free broadband.
    So, for the most part, become Corbyn?

    He did get a lot more votes
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 5,202
    edited July 26
    kle4 said:

    Dura_Ace said:



    I mean, I am genuinely unsure. If I were somehow magically made leader of the Lib Dems, I am not sure what I would do.

    Legalise cannabis.
    UBI.
    Abolish HoL.
    Fully federal UK with English parliament in Hunstanton.
    Free broadband.
    So, for the most part, become Corbyn?

    He did get a lot more votes
    Two of those policies are nicked from die Brexitpartie. Red wall and all that. People with writing on their clothes who drive P reg Rover 200s.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 5,206
    Nigelb said:

    Detailed review article in the Lancet on infectious aerosols.

    Particle sizes of infectious aerosols: implications for infection control
    https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanres/article/PIIS2213-2600(20)30323-4/fulltext
    ... These data show that infectious aerosols from humans exist in a wide range of particle sizes that are strikingly consistent across studies, methods, and pathogens. There is no evidence to support the concept that most respiratory infections are associated with primarily large droplet transmission. In fact, small particle aerosols are the rule, rather than the exception, contrary to current guidelines.12 These small particles occur without a need for a prolonged time to allow for desiccation, and they are of a size that is immediately respirable. These data also add evidence that could update the current dichotomous infection control guidelines, as was proposed 9 years ago....

    Aren't the mask militants always telling us that non-medical masks and cloth face coverings are still effective because they intercept all those nasty large droplets?

    We shall have to see if further evidence emerges to back this study up, but it just goes to remind us that our knowledge of this situation is fluid and ever-changing. As I remarked yesterday, back in April received wisdom was that cyclists and joggers were selfish, evil plague spreaders who all deserved to be shot; now that outdoor exercise is appreciated to be very low risk and obesity the single most important controllable risk factor for the disease, they're Heroes of the Revolution.

    In the same way, received wisdom right now is that masks are essential because they catch coughs and sneezes; in another three or four months we might very well be right back to where we were in March, when they were regarded as worse than useless because they offer very limited protection, they're often not worn properly, they get filthy and people end up infecting themselves by fiddling with them, pulling them down and back up all the time and touching their faces in the process.

    Or not. Evidence, evidence, more evidence is always helpful.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 74,050
    edited July 26
    Angus Robertson launches his campaign to take on Joanna Cherry in Edinburgh Central
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 55,331
    MaxPB said:

    nichomar said:

    nichomar said:

    nichomar said:

    tlg86 said:

    Very good from Raab this morning. For once the government is in a good position and the criticisms look stupid and opportunistic.

    This is showing the shallowness and hypocrisy of our broadcast media

    Raab very good on Sophy
    He is telling porkies I e been pointing out that infection rates in Spain have been on rise for a week the Friday figures were lower than Thursday but he claims that it was Friday that made their minds up. Why didn’t They do it on Thursday?
    I doubt HMG has been reading your posts and it is clear from Professor Van Tam that HMG acted immediately on their advice yesterday
    If I can see the data so can he, they didn’t want to eclipse Johnson’s first anniversary bollocks. In six weeks time Spain will be imposing quarantine on visitors from the UK as they find themselves in the same situation.
    Utter nonsense though I expect Spain will see most of Europe following UK
    You will see rises across Europe, what makes you think the UK will avoid a similar increase as lockdown unwinds.
    Nightclubs aren't open. That seems to be the common link among countries that have seen the start of a second wave.
    As if those places were not dreadful enough.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 5,809

    Nigelb said:

    Detailed review article in the Lancet on infectious aerosols.

    Particle sizes of infectious aerosols: implications for infection control
    https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanres/article/PIIS2213-2600(20)30323-4/fulltext
    ... These data show that infectious aerosols from humans exist in a wide range of particle sizes that are strikingly consistent across studies, methods, and pathogens. There is no evidence to support the concept that most respiratory infections are associated with primarily large droplet transmission. In fact, small particle aerosols are the rule, rather than the exception, contrary to current guidelines.12 These small particles occur without a need for a prolonged time to allow for desiccation, and they are of a size that is immediately respirable. These data also add evidence that could update the current dichotomous infection control guidelines, as was proposed 9 years ago....

    Aren't the mask militants always telling us that non-medical masks and cloth face coverings are still effective because they intercept all those nasty large droplets?

    We shall have to see if further evidence emerges to back this study up, but it just goes to remind us that our knowledge of this situation is fluid and ever-changing. As I remarked yesterday, back in April received wisdom was that cyclists and joggers were selfish, evil plague spreaders who all deserved to be shot; now that outdoor exercise is appreciated to be very low risk and obesity the single most important controllable risk factor for the disease, they're Heroes of the Revolution.

    In the same way, received wisdom right now is that masks are essential because they catch coughs and sneezes; in another three or four months we might very well be right back to where we were in March, when they were regarded as worse than useless because they offer very limited protection, they're often not worn properly, they get filthy and people end up infecting themselves by fiddling with them, pulling them down and back up all the time and touching their faces in the process.

    Or not. Evidence, evidence, more evidence is always helpful.
    Interesting to see if more comes of the Portuguese development in masks I posted yesterday where the mask actually kills the virus.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 34,369
    I assume after todays action on Spain and reports covid is reaching new highs of infection across the world most people will decide to take the safer option and remain in the UK this year and maybe even next year

    This is a betting site and discussions about the prospects for 2024 election are understandable but nobody can have any idea of the outcome as all parties face the fallout of covid 19 and the upsetting of traditional ideas and ways of working

    To be fair even I do not know who I will be voting for in 2024

    Nothing is going to be the same again and it is how everyone adapts to the change coming and the consequences that will not only shape political parties but the policies and even the viability of those policies
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 1,573
    edited July 26
    I think there are a few (not by any means all) countries who got a bit self congratulatory about how well they “handled” the pandemic compared especially to some of the bogeyman bigger countries, and haven’t acknowledged the extent to which luck or circumstance played a part. And after largely opening up are only flying under the radar a bit because their relative small size masks the extent of any problems they might be developing.

  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 2,843
    kle4 said:

    MaxPB said:

    nichomar said:

    nichomar said:

    nichomar said:

    tlg86 said:

    Very good from Raab this morning. For once the government is in a good position and the criticisms look stupid and opportunistic.

    This is showing the shallowness and hypocrisy of our broadcast media

    Raab very good on Sophy
    He is telling porkies I e been pointing out that infection rates in Spain have been on rise for a week the Friday figures were lower than Thursday but he claims that it was Friday that made their minds up. Why didn’t They do it on Thursday?
    I doubt HMG has been reading your posts and it is clear from Professor Van Tam that HMG acted immediately on their advice yesterday
    If I can see the data so can he, they didn’t want to eclipse Johnson’s first anniversary bollocks. In six weeks time Spain will be imposing quarantine on visitors from the UK as they find themselves in the same situation.
    Utter nonsense though I expect Spain will see most of Europe following UK
    You will see rises across Europe, what makes you think the UK will avoid a similar increase as lockdown unwinds.
    Nightclubs aren't open. That seems to be the common link among countries that have seen the start of a second wave.
    As if those places were not dreadful enough.
    I'm too old to go clubbing these days, and was hardly Ravy Davy Gravy when younger, but I really feel for younger people that these are still closed. Scene of some of the best times, back in the day. Probably my biggest regret is not going out more when I was younger.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 28,710
    Sandpit said:

    ydoethur said:

    Is it wrong of me to feel no sympathy for these people?

    Coronavirus: 'Devastated' travellers react to Spain quarantine rules
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-53541503

    If they didn’t know there was a risk of this happening, they’re idiots.

    If they knew the risk, and went ahead anyway, well, the risk went sour. Bad luck.

    If they knew the risk but thought it magically didn’t apply to them, they’re arrogant beyond the point of a Cummings or a Corbyn.

    There is a reason why I have booked an October break in Wales, rather than the Med as I usually try for. And I won’t be going abroad again until the Rona is under control.

    Yes, I will miss my nice sunny holidays, but I would miss two weeks’ pay much more.

    It was blindingly obvious that this was going to happen, it was even discussed extensively on here when travel 'bridges' were first being considered.

    But the holiday companies, airlines and media all lobbied hard and got their air bridges, only for popular destinations to have a virus outbreak and be removed from the list.

    The question now is how easily can the UK government enforce quarantine on tens of thousands of people on their return? Apart from a few idiots who post pictures of their life constantly, or 'famous' people who might get caught by the paparazzi, it's not going to be easy. Are we expecting police to knock on doors every couple of days to make sure you're home?
    Most people are fairly honourable

    Plus if you have been on holiday there is a good chance your colleagues will know you’ve been to Spain
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 5,809

    I assume after todays action on Spain and reports covid is reaching new highs of infection across the world most people will decide to take the safer option and remain in the UK this year and maybe even next year

    This is a betting site and discussions about the prospects for 2024 election are understandable but nobody can have any idea of the outcome as all parties face the fallout of covid 19 and the upsetting of traditional ideas and ways of working

    To be fair even I do not know who I will be voting for in 2024

    Nothing is going to be the same again and it is how everyone adapts to the change coming and the consequences that will not only shape political parties but the policies and even the viability of those policies

    More focus is needed, given that this is an ongoing crisis, of how we keep other essential services operating. I have a vested interest and up to now have been impressed how spain has maintained its cancer diagnosis and treatment operations throughout, not sure how well things like hip replacements are going though. We can’t afford to have parts of a nations health service be paralyzed by this Virus. Where will the money come from though
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 28,710
    MaxPB said:

    Stocky said:

    I wouldn’t touch Smarkets. Not a serious operation.

    Why do you say that? I use them a fair bit.
    The consensus on here before is that they do not have a good record of making the rules to markets clear / settling them properly. Obviously that doesn't matter much for most punters, but politics-wise apparently it has caused problems. This particular market is a good example.
    They also had a tendency to arbitrarily void markets.
    Coincidentally only when it went against whatever position their own betting teams had taken.
    That doesn’t sound at all arbitrary...
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 1,573
    How long before somebody suggests that the timing of the announcement was made/delayed to allow Shapps to go on his holiday without defying Govt guidance on “all but essential travel”?

    Oops, done it now... ;)
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 34,369
    nichomar said:

    I assume after todays action on Spain and reports covid is reaching new highs of infection across the world most people will decide to take the safer option and remain in the UK this year and maybe even next year

    This is a betting site and discussions about the prospects for 2024 election are understandable but nobody can have any idea of the outcome as all parties face the fallout of covid 19 and the upsetting of traditional ideas and ways of working

    To be fair even I do not know who I will be voting for in 2024

    Nothing is going to be the same again and it is how everyone adapts to the change coming and the consequences that will not only shape political parties but the policies and even the viability of those policies

    More focus is needed, given that this is an ongoing crisis, of how we keep other essential services operating. I have a vested interest and up to now have been impressed how spain has maintained its cancer diagnosis and treatment operations throughout, not sure how well things like hip replacements are going though. We can’t afford to have parts of a nations health service be paralyzed by this Virus. Where will the money come from though
    Fair comment and as for the money, I have no idea
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 34,309
    alex_ said:

    How long before somebody suggests that the timing of the announcement was made/delayed to allow Shapps to go on his holiday without defying Govt guidance on “all but essential travel”?

    Oops, done it now... ;)

    I posted an equally cynical view that it was delayed until day after Johnson had done is 100 days of PM interview round.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 5,106
    Dura_Ace said:

    kle4 said:

    Dura_Ace said:



    I mean, I am genuinely unsure. If I were somehow magically made leader of the Lib Dems, I am not sure what I would do.

    Legalise cannabis.
    UBI.
    Abolish HoL.
    Fully federal UK with English parliament in Hunstanton.
    Free broadband.
    So, for the most part, become Corbyn?

    He did get a lot more votes
    Two of those policies are nicked from die Brexitpartie. Red wall and all that. People with writing on their clothes who drive P reg Rover 200s.
    The P reg Rover 200 is a damning indictment.

    I suppose moving Parliament to Hunstanton could prevent an Independent Norfolk, although I maintain it is probably already operating under an unofficial UDI. I don't believe HMRC and DVLA rules apply there anyway.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 21,105
    edited July 26

    @RidgeOnSunday: Could Labour support another Scottish independence referendum?

    "Our policy is not to support an independence referendum" and Labour won't push for one says @JonAshworth

    He says Labour "is not a pro-independence party" and believes "in the strength of the union."

    #Ridge



    Finally
    Starmer has been pro union from day one and has said so on several occasions
    He has but the party has not. Good to see consistent messaging.

    Now to get rid of Leonard
    And replace him with whom?

    Of course with 40%+ of current SLab voters supporting Indy and a majority for indy ref II, you may have to replace some voters too.
    Counting chickens and complacency on show
    I'm just going on the available polling data and my knowledge of the talent in SLab. If you want to draw on your vast reservoir of Scotch expertise to put forward an alternative view, feel free. Who do you think should lead Scottish Labour, and how do you think they should change the minds of Labour voters inclined towards indy?
  • FeersumEnjineeyaFeersumEnjineeya Posts: 1,792
    edited July 26
    Dura_Ace said:



    I mean, I am genuinely unsure. If I were somehow magically made leader of the Lib Dems, I am not sure what I would do.

    Legalise cannabis.
    UBI.
    Abolish HoL.
    Fully federal UK with English parliament in Hunstanton.
    Free broadband.
    That's not far off actual Lib Dem policy. UBI, for example, is on the manifestos of both prospective leaders. I'll be voting for Davey, as I did last time, primarily because he has actual experience in government and is far more likely to be able to attract votes from moderate Tories dismayed by the inevitable brexit debacle.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 5,809

    kle4 said:

    MaxPB said:

    nichomar said:

    nichomar said:

    nichomar said:

    tlg86 said:

    Very good from Raab this morning. For once the government is in a good position and the criticisms look stupid and opportunistic.

    This is showing the shallowness and hypocrisy of our broadcast media

    Raab very good on Sophy
    He is telling porkies I e been pointing out that infection rates in Spain have been on rise for a week the Friday figures were lower than Thursday but he claims that it was Friday that made their minds up. Why didn’t They do it on Thursday?
    I doubt HMG has been reading your posts and it is clear from Professor Van Tam that HMG acted immediately on their advice yesterday
    If I can see the data so can he, they didn’t want to eclipse Johnson’s first anniversary bollocks. In six weeks time Spain will be imposing quarantine on visitors from the UK as they find themselves in the same situation.
    Utter nonsense though I expect Spain will see most of Europe following UK
    You will see rises across Europe, what makes you think the UK will avoid a similar increase as lockdown unwinds.
    Nightclubs aren't open. That seems to be the common link among countries that have seen the start of a second wave.
    As if those places were not dreadful enough.
    I'm too old to go clubbing these days, and was hardly Ravy Davy Gravy when younger, but I really feel for younger people that these are still closed. Scene of some of the best times, back in the day. Probably my biggest regret is not going out more when I was younger.
    They will look for alternative outlets from gathering in large numbers on the beach or illegal raves. A quiet pint and a pizza apparently isn’t enough
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 34,369

    alex_ said:

    How long before somebody suggests that the timing of the announcement was made/delayed to allow Shapps to go on his holiday without defying Govt guidance on “all but essential travel”?

    Oops, done it now... ;)

    I posted an equally cynical view that it was delayed until day after Johnson had done is 100 days of PM interview round.
    As Prof Van Tam confirmed the scientist told HMG yesterday to act on this occasion HMG are correct and does anyone think that Shapps would have gone to Spain yesterday if HMG knew earlier
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 28,710
    nichomar said:

    tlg86 said:

    Very good from Raab this morning. For once the government is in a good position and the criticisms look stupid and opportunistic.

    This is showing the shallowness and hypocrisy of our broadcast media

    Raab very good on Sophy
    He is telling porkies I e been pointing out that infection rates in Spain have been on rise for a week the Friday figures were lower than Thursday but he claims that it was Friday that made their minds up. Why didn’t They do it on Thursday?
    Depends when the recommendation was received.

    I could very easily see (days of rise)

    Day 1 - noise
    Day 2 - what’s going on?
    Day 3 - we’ve an issue: prepare paper for committee
    Day 4 - scientific committee makes recommendation
    Day 5 - minister reviews and agrees. Policy announced and implemented immediately
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 3,750
    edited July 26

    Nigelb said:

    Detailed review article in the Lancet on infectious aerosols.

    Particle sizes of infectious aerosols: implications for infection control
    https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanres/article/PIIS2213-2600(20)30323-4/fulltext
    ... These data show that infectious aerosols from humans exist in a wide range of particle sizes that are strikingly consistent across studies, methods, and pathogens. There is no evidence to support the concept that most respiratory infections are associated with primarily large droplet transmission. In fact, small particle aerosols are the rule, rather than the exception, contrary to current guidelines.12 These small particles occur without a need for a prolonged time to allow for desiccation, and they are of a size that is immediately respirable. These data also add evidence that could update the current dichotomous infection control guidelines, as was proposed 9 years ago....

    Aren't the mask militants always telling us that non-medical masks and cloth face coverings are still effective because they intercept all those nasty large droplets?

    We shall have to see if further evidence emerges to back this study up, but it just goes to remind us that our knowledge of this situation is fluid and ever-changing. As I remarked yesterday, back in April received wisdom was that cyclists and joggers were selfish, evil plague spreaders who all deserved to be shot; now that outdoor exercise is appreciated to be very low risk and obesity the single most important controllable risk factor for the disease, they're Heroes of the Revolution.

    In the same way, received wisdom right now is that masks are essential because they catch coughs and sneezes; in another three or four months we might very well be right back to where we were in March, when they were regarded as worse than useless because they offer very limited protection, they're often not worn properly, they get filthy and people end up infecting themselves by fiddling with them, pulling them down and back up all the time and touching their faces in the process.

    Or not. Evidence, evidence, more evidence is always helpful.
    Your penultimate paragraph, on fiddling with masks. Has anyone read HMG's advice to: change the face covering if it becomes damp or if you’ve touched it?
    https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/face-coverings-when-to-wear-one-and-how-to-make-your-own/face-coverings-when-to-wear-one-and-how-to-make-your-own

    Impracticable for most, surely?
  • felixfelix Posts: 10,711
    nichomar said:

    nichomar said:

    tlg86 said:

    Very good from Raab this morning. For once the government is in a good position and the criticisms look stupid and opportunistic.

    This is showing the shallowness and hypocrisy of our broadcast media

    Raab very good on Sophy
    He is telling porkies I e been pointing out that infection rates in Spain have been on rise for a week the Friday figures were lower than Thursday but he claims that it was Friday that made their minds up. Why didn’t They do it on Thursday?
    I doubt HMG has been reading your posts and it is clear from Professor Van Tam that HMG acted immediately on their advice yesterday
    If I can see the data so can he, they didn’t want to eclipse Johnson’s first anniversary bollocks. In six weeks time Spain will be imposing quarantine on visitors from the UK as they find themselves in the same situation.
    The measure is fair and reasonable given the current position. Your big problem seems to be that it's a Tory government doing it. What part of 'following the scientists advice don't you get?
  • FeersumEnjineeyaFeersumEnjineeya Posts: 1,792
    nichomar said:

    kle4 said:

    MaxPB said:

    nichomar said:

    nichomar said:

    nichomar said:

    tlg86 said:

    Very good from Raab this morning. For once the government is in a good position and the criticisms look stupid and opportunistic.

    This is showing the shallowness and hypocrisy of our broadcast media

    Raab very good on Sophy
    He is telling porkies I e been pointing out that infection rates in Spain have been on rise for a week the Friday figures were lower than Thursday but he claims that it was Friday that made their minds up. Why didn’t They do it on Thursday?
    I doubt HMG has been reading your posts and it is clear from Professor Van Tam that HMG acted immediately on their advice yesterday
    If I can see the data so can he, they didn’t want to eclipse Johnson’s first anniversary bollocks. In six weeks time Spain will be imposing quarantine on visitors from the UK as they find themselves in the same situation.
    Utter nonsense though I expect Spain will see most of Europe following UK
    You will see rises across Europe, what makes you think the UK will avoid a similar increase as lockdown unwinds.
    Nightclubs aren't open. That seems to be the common link among countries that have seen the start of a second wave.
    As if those places were not dreadful enough.
    I'm too old to go clubbing these days, and was hardly Ravy Davy Gravy when younger, but I really feel for younger people that these are still closed. Scene of some of the best times, back in the day. Probably my biggest regret is not going out more when I was younger.
    They will look for alternative outlets from gathering in large numbers on the beach or illegal raves. A quiet pint and a pizza apparently isn’t enough
    It's hardly surprising that a quiet pint and a pizza isn't enough! It is part of being human that you want to meet lots of people when you are young, as you go about building your social circle and seeking relationships. I'm perfectly happy with a quiet night in now that I'm middle aged, but when I was young, a Friday or Saturday night in was a night wasted.
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