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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Polling Analysis: Johnson approval ratings are markedly better

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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,200
    ydoethur said:

    Mortimer said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Off topic but on the topic of trains, so I hope I will be forgiven.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/world/frances-love-affair-with-speed-derailed-as-macron-signals-sleepers-return-92mcgptpq

    If you live long enough what was absolutely normal as a child comes around.

    We used to travel to Italy regularly as a child on sleeper trains. Initially from Victoria and then Calais, changing at Paris going to Rome and then the last change there for the train to Naples. I have so many happy memories of these train journeys: the peculiar smell of trains (especially the combination of steam and sea as we arrived at Calais for the ferry), everything about Wagons-Lits, eating dinner, peering out at night to see the station names, hearing the announcements and waking up to the smell of a new country and watching how the light changed and the gradual differences in houses, stations, countryside etc. Plus the people. Wonderful.

    Then when my family were younger we’d take the car across and go to Brussels or Paris and do something similar: put the car on the train and travel with it to Nice or Livorno, avoiding the dreary drive through France. Belgium closed its service a few years ago.

    The last time I did it was in 2016 with my daughter when we went to Nice from Paris. The service was awful: rude, uncaring staff, shabby trains, trains delayed etc. It had the air of a service that was being deliberately run down to turn away customers and justify its closure. And that happened in 2017.

    And now it is being revived. Plus ca change, eh?

    I love train travel across Europe. There should be much much more of it. Far nicer than planes. Greener too. And it has the possibility of fun adventure, in a way which flights really don’t have.

    I was OVERJOYED to see this article. Wagons Lit journey across Europe is on my bucket list.
    As for @Sunil_Prasannan ...
    Sleeper trains? Nah, I prefer to do my train journeys in daylight where possible. Then I can see the sights and scenery :)
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    sladeslade Posts: 1,929
    Scott_xP said:

    DavidL said:

    I do think BMI is severely shortist. If I were only a couple of inches taller I would be ok.

    Apparently Chris Hoy is obese, based on his BMI
    Check out his father.
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,606
    edited July 2020
    One worry I have about all of this adjustable quarantine is that it incentivises countries to hide outbreaks if being honest results in economic desolation. If Spain had been less honest about the scale of the outbreak then they wouldn't have ended up on the red list. I actually think between European countries either via the EU or a multilateral agreement there should be a minimum standard set on testing and reporting of virus statistics. That way there is no perverse incentive to cover up outbreaks and leave people in the dark about what kind of situation they are potentially heading into.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,899
    Back in the office. Catching up on the gossip ^_^;;
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    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,077
    MaxPB said:

    One worry I have about all of this adjustable quarantine is that it incentivises countries to hide outbreaks if being honest results in economic desolation. If Spain has been less honest about the scale of the outbreak then they wouldn't have ended up on the red list. I actually think between European countries either via the EU or a multilateral agreement there should be a minimum standard set on testing and reporting of virus statistics. That way there is no perverse incentive to cover up outbreaks and leave people in the dark about what kind of situation they are potentially heading into.

    Iceland COVID tests everyone who enters the country now. Why can’t we do that? Might make a difference, as well as giving the Government intel on where outbreaks are.
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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    IshmaelZ said:

    Scott_xP said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Credit where it's due, I didn't expect this govt to do anything much on obesity.

    I criticized them for not pushing people to lose weight a month or two back, so am very pleasantly surprised to see Boris making the link between protecting the NHS and staying healthier.

    They're even doing some restrictions on advertising, must admit I'm stunned they're willing to annoy big business like that.

    https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1287637827203850241
    Sound like insane proposals.

    I don't smoke, don't like smoking, but at a time when the world is coming to recognise prohibition has failed and is legalising drugs to be thinking of outlawing tobacco? Madness.
    You can't make cigarettes in a bathtub, and tobacco smoking is a mere 400 year blip in the history of mankind whereas we have been at the booze so long we are genetically adapted to it (and anyway currently prohibition works pretty bloody well in many parts of the world). So not a very good parallel. I would prefer smoking to be taxed and ridiculed out of existence rather than legislated, but it has to, and will, go.
    I'm talking about prohibition of cannabis, heroin etc having failed . . . not alcohol.

    Tax tobacco out of existence is my preference too, not criminalise it.
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,108
    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    On swing, Boris got 4.6%. The common theme of big swings is facing a duffer like Brown, Major or Corbyn. Boris, much as people like to hate him, isn't in that category.

    John Major had much stronger leadership skills than Johnson. Brown was of similar standard to Johnson, though Brown did at least have the important skill of hard application. Johnson is a lazy git, and it will catch up with him. Johnson had more leadership capability than Corbyn, but then so does the average ruminant.
    You see what you want to see, ultimately it's going to be for the people to decide, but I'm pretty certain that Boris isn't in the same category as the three mentioned, @isam had a header on this based on personality ratings, well worth a read if you haven't had a chance.
    No, sorry, I agree there is always an element of that with any of us, but my main objection to Johnson has always been that he does not have what it takes to be a PM. I held that opinion long before he famously decided which Brexit article would most help him achieve his career ambition. He is a value vacuum; a man who was a hopeless Foreign Secretary and he is, and will continue to be, a hopeless PM. There is a fundamental difference between being able to win an election, whether against weak opposition or not, and the ability to lead a government.
    What are the qualities that you think are required to make a good PM?
    Good judgement is the key. Far more important than energy or intelligence.

    Johnson does not have that, and never has had.

    He is a poor judge of character, a poor judge of policy and a poor judge of ethics.

    At the same time, he is undoubtedly possessed of a remarkable emotional intelligence.
    Good judgement is the key to being an effective PM, high emotional intelligence is often the key to getting elected to the office in the first place
    I see you are doing a Priti Patel by conspicuously failing to contradict, and thereby implicitly agreeing with @ydoethur about the fact that Johnson has dreadful judgement.
    Bill Clinton strikes me as an even better parallel though.

    Emotional intelligence - positively uncanny. It made him an outstanding campaigner and a gifted diplomat.

    Political judgement - totally non-existent.
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    Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 4,800
    isam said:

    Interesting header, particularly as Opinium are the most favourable pollster to Labour at the moment

    The interesting thing is how this compares against the Curtice, iirc, analysis that counter argued that most of the small swing against the Tories had concentrated in the red wall seats. I have the feeling that the two pieces aren't quite direct opposites and both could be simultaneously true, but it seems unlikely nonetheless.
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,606

    MaxPB said:

    One worry I have about all of this adjustable quarantine is that it incentivises countries to hide outbreaks if being honest results in economic desolation. If Spain has been less honest about the scale of the outbreak then they wouldn't have ended up on the red list. I actually think between European countries either via the EU or a multilateral agreement there should be a minimum standard set on testing and reporting of virus statistics. That way there is no perverse incentive to cover up outbreaks and leave people in the dark about what kind of situation they are potentially heading into.

    Iceland COVID tests everyone who enters the country now. Why can’t we do that? Might make a difference, as well as giving the Government intel on where outbreaks are.
    I think it's something that is being looked into, Heathrow are trialling it for a few flights to see if it's feasible to make people wait the 6h processing time before being able to leave.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,964
    Taxes on deliveries opens up obvious charges of hypocrisy.

    What pollutes more, umpteen people going into town, or one delivery driver making his rounds?

    Many places don't have the public transport infrastructure of London. Even Leeds, a very large city, has reasonable transport but no underground or trams. And smaller towns have either infrequent bus services or cars only.

    People need to travel. And there's every chance we'll need another lockdown, either national or local.
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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    On topic: aren't voters in the 2019 Tory gains more invested in "Boris" than the Tory party? So perhaps it's not surprising: given structural antipathy to the Tories in many of these areas, it was only seats where Johnson himself was particularly popular that the Tory candidate won. In traditional Tory seats, by contrast, "Boris" was likely less important as a selling point. A corollary of this is that replacing Johnson mid-term in an effort to bolster Tory support may have the opposite effect in some of these seats. I have a gut feeling that Sunak may be less popular in these seats than in the traditional Tory home counties, but it'd be interesting to see polling on that.
    There's also the Brexit factor at work, although I imagine that will fade as an issue over time, especially if it turns out to be a bit shit, as seems likely.

    Indeed, according to Redfield 2019 Tory voters prefer Boris to Starmer by more than they prefer Sunak to Starmer, only 2019 LD voters prefer Sunak to Starmer by more than they prefer Boris to Starmer and the latter are very posh London and Home Counties centred

    https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voting-intention-22-july/
    One very likely explanation for this is the similar psychological response to a change in buying behaviour, a kind of confirmation bias that is the opposite to buyers remorse. In other words, I have changed who I buy from, away from my traditional brand, and I need to keep telling myself it was the right decision, because part of me tells me it was not. "I DID make the right decision! I DID" The person will look for those reasons why they should convince themselves it was the correct decision. Clever brands will keep marketing to such folk to keep them on board. In political terms Tony Blair was the most recent to achieve this, and before him Margaret Thatcher.

    As I have said many times before, Johnson is no Tony Blair, and he is definitely no Margaret Thatcher. This effect will doubtless melt away long before another GE.
    That explanation doesn't explain why they "bought from him" in the first place.

    There's no swing in these number. The logical thought surely is that the voters in these seats like him . . . because they like him . . . and that's why they voted for him in the first place. Not that they voted for him then decided they like him, because they voted for him.
    You and Nigel are both right. They voted for Johnson because they like him and they say they still like him. The latter could be for one of two reasons. (i) It's too early to have realized the mistake. (ii) They have realized their mistake but are not yet ready to admit it. All the Red Wallers are probably in one or the other camp. We can postulate that a (iii) category - realized the mistake AND saying so - is virtually empty right now. It must be otherwise it would be showing up in the data.

    The key question here - which we can't answer - is what is the split between (i) and (ii). Heavily (i) means good news for the Cons. Their strategy is predicated on the Red Wall still being in a (i) state by the time of the next election - because if these voters have not clocked their mistake by then the chances are they will repeat it. But if (as I hope) there are lots in (ii), Labour are set fair. Why? Because from (ii) it's only a matter of time before they take the decisive step to (iii) - which will duly show up in the polls and more importantly at the ballot box.
    Odd that you don't have category (iv) they haven't made a mistake.

    Anyway Nigel is disagreeing with that, he postulates despite the evidence to the contrary that people voted just because they disliked Corbyn and they never liked Johnson in the first place. Despite the polls saying the opposite.
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,209
    MaxPB said:

    TOPPING said:

    MaxPB said:

    Scott_xP said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Credit where it's due, I didn't expect this govt to do anything much on obesity.

    I criticized them for not pushing people to lose weight a month or two back, so am very pleasantly surprised to see Boris making the link between protecting the NHS and staying healthier.

    They're even doing some restrictions on advertising, must admit I'm stunned they're willing to annoy big business like that.

    https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1287637827203850241
    Are they still promoting the "Eat Out to Help Out" campaign?
    I hope so, I've got four dinners booked in already for August now that the list of restaurants is out!
    Blimey Max isn't it just a rounding error for you?
    Yes but I'm still Indian lol.
    LOL
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    Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 13,776
    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    On topic: aren't voters in the 2019 Tory gains more invested in "Boris" than the Tory party? So perhaps it's not surprising: given structural antipathy to the Tories in many of these areas, it was only seats where Johnson himself was particularly popular that the Tory candidate won. In traditional Tory seats, by contrast, "Boris" was likely less important as a selling point. A corollary of this is that replacing Johnson mid-term in an effort to bolster Tory support may have the opposite effect in some of these seats. I have a gut feeling that Sunak may be less popular in these seats than in the traditional Tory home counties, but it'd be interesting to see polling on that.
    There's also the Brexit factor at work, although I imagine that will fade as an issue over time, especially if it turns out to be a bit shit, as seems likely.

    Indeed, according to Redfield 2019 Tory voters prefer Boris to Starmer by more than they prefer Sunak to Starmer, only 2019 LD voters prefer Sunak to Starmer by more than they prefer Boris to Starmer and the latter are very posh London and Home Counties centred

    https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voting-intention-22-july/
    One very likely explanation for this is the similar psychological response to a change in buying behaviour, a kind of confirmation bias that is the opposite to buyers remorse. In other words, I have changed who I buy from, away from my traditional brand, and I need to keep telling myself it was the right decision, because part of me tells me it was not. "I DID make the right decision! I DID" The person will look for those reasons why they should convince themselves it was the correct decision. Clever brands will keep marketing to such folk to keep them on board. In political terms Tony Blair was the most recent to achieve this, and before him Margaret Thatcher.

    As I have said many times before, Johnson is no Tony Blair, and he is definitely no Margaret Thatcher. This effect will doubtless melt away long before another GE.
    That explanation doesn't explain why they "bought from him" in the first place.

    There's no swing in these number. The logical thought surely is that the voters in these seats like him . . . because they like him . . . and that's why they voted for him in the first place. Not that they voted for him then decided they like him, because they voted for him.
    You and Nigel are both right. They voted for Johnson because they like him and they say they still like him. The latter could be for one of two reasons. (i) It's too early to have realized the mistake. (ii) They have realized their mistake but are not yet ready to admit it. All the Red Wallers are probably in one or the other camp. We can postulate that a (iii) category - realized the mistake AND saying so - is virtually empty right now. It must be otherwise it would be showing up in the data.

    The key question here - which we can't answer - is what is the split between (i) and (ii). Heavily (i) means good news for the Cons. Their strategy is predicated on the Red Wall still being in a (i) state by the time of the next election - because if these voters have not clocked their mistake by then the chances are they will repeat it. But if (as I hope) there are lots in (ii), Labour are set fair. Why? Because from (ii) it's only a matter of time before they take the decisive step to (iii) - which will duly show up in the polls and more importantly at the ballot box.
    My view is that while Johnson is good at appealing to voters in a reality TV kinda way( that is something I don't understand, but there we are), he is fundamentally weak at actual executive leadership. Unless he is supremely lucky, which is unlikely in these uncertain times, even the most apolitical will gradually realise this. Either that, or I am completely wrong and Boris Johnson defies all the usual laws of leadership. Unlikely.
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    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,077
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    One worry I have about all of this adjustable quarantine is that it incentivises countries to hide outbreaks if being honest results in economic desolation. If Spain has been less honest about the scale of the outbreak then they wouldn't have ended up on the red list. I actually think between European countries either via the EU or a multilateral agreement there should be a minimum standard set on testing and reporting of virus statistics. That way there is no perverse incentive to cover up outbreaks and leave people in the dark about what kind of situation they are potentially heading into.

    Iceland COVID tests everyone who enters the country now. Why can’t we do that? Might make a difference, as well as giving the Government intel on where outbreaks are.
    I think it's something that is being looked into, Heathrow are trialling it for a few flights to see if it's feasible to make people wait the 6h processing time before being able to leave.
    Even if you let people leave, it minimizes community infection time, by letting people know they’re infected as soon as possible.
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    contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    kle4 said:

    A lot of places will probably end up with very different totals to now. Being second or third or whatever in deaths likely means little but we can broadly see who has had a bad outcome.
    How could Spain's death toll be so high, given its draconian lockdown measures (much fetishised on here), and its compulsory masks everywhere rules?

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    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,077

    kle4 said:

    A lot of places will probably end up with very different totals to now. Being second or third or whatever in deaths likely means little but we can broadly see who has had a bad outcome.
    How could Spain's death toll be so high, given its draconian lockdown measures (much fetishised on here), and its compulsory masks everywhere rules?

    Must be all that 5G.
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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    ydoethur said:

    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    On swing, Boris got 4.6%. The common theme of big swings is facing a duffer like Brown, Major or Corbyn. Boris, much as people like to hate him, isn't in that category.

    John Major had much stronger leadership skills than Johnson. Brown was of similar standard to Johnson, though Brown did at least have the important skill of hard application. Johnson is a lazy git, and it will catch up with him. Johnson had more leadership capability than Corbyn, but then so does the average ruminant.
    You see what you want to see, ultimately it's going to be for the people to decide, but I'm pretty certain that Boris isn't in the same category as the three mentioned, @isam had a header on this based on personality ratings, well worth a read if you haven't had a chance.
    No, sorry, I agree there is always an element of that with any of us, but my main objection to Johnson has always been that he does not have what it takes to be a PM. I held that opinion long before he famously decided which Brexit article would most help him achieve his career ambition. He is a value vacuum; a man who was a hopeless Foreign Secretary and he is, and will continue to be, a hopeless PM. There is a fundamental difference between being able to win an election, whether against weak opposition or not, and the ability to lead a government.
    What are the qualities that you think are required to make a good PM?
    Good judgement is the key. Far more important than energy or intelligence.

    Johnson does not have that, and never has had.

    He is a poor judge of character, a poor judge of policy and a poor judge of ethics.

    At the same time, he is undoubtedly possessed of a remarkable emotional intelligence.
    Good judgement is the key to being an effective PM, high emotional intelligence is often the key to getting elected to the office in the first place
    I see you are doing a Priti Patel by conspicuously failing to contradict, and thereby implicitly agreeing with @ydoethur about the fact that Johnson has dreadful judgement.
    Bill Clinton strikes me as an even better parallel though.

    Emotional intelligence - positively uncanny. It made him an outstanding campaigner and a gifted diplomat.

    Political judgement - totally non-existent.
    I was ridiculed here recently suggesting that Johnson was similar to Bill Clinton . . .
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    Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 12,977

    When I was a child in the early 2000s, we used to drive from Birmingham to the south of France, sometimes by Ferry, sometimes by Chunnel. Could usually get from Birmingham to 3/4 through France in one day. How much did the car train cost compared to the cost of fuel?

    My father was a man of great wisdom and discernment except when it came to cars. He had a series of Rover P6s then Series 3 Jaguar XJ6s. So trips to our house in Bretagne cost a fortune in fuel and we had no certainty that the journey would be completed under the car's own power.
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,187
    MaxPB said:

    One worry I have about all of this adjustable quarantine is that it incentivises countries to hide outbreaks if being honest results in economic desolation. If Spain had been less honest about the scale of the outbreak then they wouldn't have ended up on the red list. I actually think between European countries either via the EU or a multilateral agreement there should be a minimum standard set on testing and reporting of virus statistics. That way there is no perverse incentive to cover up outbreaks and leave people in the dark about what kind of situation they are potentially heading into.

    Covering up bad COVID-19 stats has to be a dangerous route for a government to go down. Our government cannot do it due to the ONS figures, not sure about Spain though. Would a government really worry about the response of other countries to their data? I doubt it.
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    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,216
    RH1992 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    RH1992 said:

    The consultation and the implementation of such a policy will take months, by which time you'd hope we'd be in a better position. Even so, "essentials" such as food shopping/DIY/childrens' clothing could be exempted as with VAT at present. I agree in principle that online companies get too much of an easy ride on tax and we should be tapping into this.

    As noted elsewhere, the problem is Amazon.

    If Amazon paid "their fare share of tax" the problem would be solved. It wouldn't be necessary to penalise UK businesses that happen to sell "mail order"
    It is when you have companies like Boohoo and ASOS undercutting high street chains significantly because they don't pay business rates or have rent to pay landlords. Nearly all larger businesses can move online and survive, but that would involve sacrificing footfall that many independent businesses in the same city centres as the bigger chains rely on to survive.

    We need to find the right balance between giving people the convenience of online shopping where necessary/desirable, but also encouraging people (when it is completely safe of course) to go and spend in their local economy.
    https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/introduction-of-the-digital-services-tax
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,336
    edited July 2020
    MaxPB said:

    Nigelb said:

    MaxPB said:
    LOL
    Actually, the subjects were volunteers who'd very recently had contact with someone infected with Covid (picked up by contact tracing) and given hydroxychloroquine (or a placebo) as prophylaxis.
    The way it was written implied that it was a challenge trial which seemed extremely irresponsible given the previous results of other trials!
    Indeed, science writing isn't always a model of clarity (though such a trial would never have received regulatory approval).

    Meanwhile, trivia I never knew: Olivia de Havilland dubbed Vivian Leigh's vomiting scene in Gone With The Wind:
    https://www.theatlantic.com/culture/archive/2020/07/olivia-de-havilland/608851/

    And was once propositioned by JFK.
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    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,216
    RH1992 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    During a pandemic, when people are advised to shelter, and not make unnecessary journeys, home deliveries of essential supplies have rocketed.

    What cunning plan has the Government come up with now?

    https://twitter.com/thetimes/status/1287711552397869064

    The consultation and the implementation of such a policy will take months, by which time you'd hope we'd be in a better position. Even so, "essentials" such as food shopping/DIY/childrens' clothing could be exempted as with VAT at present. I agree in principle that online companies get too much of an easy ride on tax and we should be tapping into this.
    https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/introduction-of-the-digital-services-tax

    Sounds like an extension to the above....
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    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,077
    HYUFD said:
    I assume he’s not going to get paid whilst he’s out there?
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,108

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    On topic: aren't voters in the 2019 Tory gains more invested in "Boris" than the Tory party? So perhaps it's not surprising: given structural antipathy to the Tories in many of these areas, it was only seats where Johnson himself was particularly popular that the Tory candidate won. In traditional Tory seats, by contrast, "Boris" was likely less important as a selling point. A corollary of this is that replacing Johnson mid-term in an effort to bolster Tory support may have the opposite effect in some of these seats. I have a gut feeling that Sunak may be less popular in these seats than in the traditional Tory home counties, but it'd be interesting to see polling on that.
    There's also the Brexit factor at work, although I imagine that will fade as an issue over time, especially if it turns out to be a bit shit, as seems likely.

    Indeed, according to Redfield 2019 Tory voters prefer Boris to Starmer by more than they prefer Sunak to Starmer, only 2019 LD voters prefer Sunak to Starmer by more than they prefer Boris to Starmer and the latter are very posh London and Home Counties centred

    https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voting-intention-22-july/
    One very likely explanation for this is the similar psychological response to a change in buying behaviour, a kind of confirmation bias that is the opposite to buyers remorse. In other words, I have changed who I buy from, away from my traditional brand, and I need to keep telling myself it was the right decision, because part of me tells me it was not. "I DID make the right decision! I DID" The person will look for those reasons why they should convince themselves it was the correct decision. Clever brands will keep marketing to such folk to keep them on board. In political terms Tony Blair was the most recent to achieve this, and before him Margaret Thatcher.

    As I have said many times before, Johnson is no Tony Blair, and he is definitely no Margaret Thatcher. This effect will doubtless melt away long before another GE.
    That explanation doesn't explain why they "bought from him" in the first place.

    There's no swing in these number. The logical thought surely is that the voters in these seats like him . . . because they like him . . . and that's why they voted for him in the first place. Not that they voted for him then decided they like him, because they voted for him.
    You and Nigel are both right. They voted for Johnson because they like him and they say they still like him. The latter could be for one of two reasons. (i) It's too early to have realized the mistake. (ii) They have realized their mistake but are not yet ready to admit it. All the Red Wallers are probably in one or the other camp. We can postulate that a (iii) category - realized the mistake AND saying so - is virtually empty right now. It must be otherwise it would be showing up in the data.

    The key question here - which we can't answer - is what is the split between (i) and (ii). Heavily (i) means good news for the Cons. Their strategy is predicated on the Red Wall still being in a (i) state by the time of the next election - because if these voters have not clocked their mistake by then the chances are they will repeat it. But if (as I hope) there are lots in (ii), Labour are set fair. Why? Because from (ii) it's only a matter of time before they take the decisive step to (iii) - which will duly show up in the polls and more importantly at the ballot box.
    My view is that while Johnson is good at appealing to voters in a reality TV kinda way( that is something I don't understand, but there we are), he is fundamentally weak at actual executive leadership. Unless he is supremely lucky, which is unlikely in these uncertain times, even the most apolitical will gradually realise this. Either that, or I am completely wrong and Boris Johnson defies all the usual laws of leadership. Unlikely.
    In a sense, he’s already been unlucky. This is the most disruptive global pandemic since the plagues of the seventeenth century. Other major pandemics since have either been comparatively localised (the Yunan plague, 1855) or have been subsumed in wider economic And social dislocation and disruption (the Spanish Flu pandemic). That it happened on his watch is undoubtedly bad luck for him.

    The problem is there are all sorts of other things he’s doing that will make matters worse.
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    eekeek Posts: 24,932

    HYUFD said:
    I assume he’s not going to get paid whilst he’s out there?
    Desk based job that can be done anywhere with calls via Zoom / Teams. And Parliament is off so nothing to worry about there.
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,108

    HYUFD said:
    I assume he’s not going to get paid whilst he’s out there?
    Well, he should be paid while on holiday.

    If he can’t resume his work as a minister immediately on return, however...
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    eekeek Posts: 24,932

    RH1992 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    RH1992 said:

    The consultation and the implementation of such a policy will take months, by which time you'd hope we'd be in a better position. Even so, "essentials" such as food shopping/DIY/childrens' clothing could be exempted as with VAT at present. I agree in principle that online companies get too much of an easy ride on tax and we should be tapping into this.

    As noted elsewhere, the problem is Amazon.

    If Amazon paid "their fare share of tax" the problem would be solved. It wouldn't be necessary to penalise UK businesses that happen to sell "mail order"
    It is when you have companies like Boohoo and ASOS undercutting high street chains significantly because they don't pay business rates or have rent to pay landlords. Nearly all larger businesses can move online and survive, but that would involve sacrificing footfall that many independent businesses in the same city centres as the bigger chains rely on to survive.

    We need to find the right balance between giving people the convenience of online shopping where necessary/desirable, but also encouraging people (when it is completely safe of course) to go and spend in their local economy.
    https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/introduction-of-the-digital-services-tax
    That's not the same thing - it's a tax on services provided by American firms who could plausible not have any UK presence
  • Options
    sarissasarissa Posts: 1,767
    MattW said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    I do think BMI is severely shortist. If I were only a couple of inches taller I would be ok.
    Because BMI uses the square of your height, not the cube, it is actually the other way round.

    I speak as someone who has not had a good lockdown from the mass point of view and I was several inches too short for my weight even at the start.
    Not sure I get that. I went to the NHS BMI calculator. If I was 6'1 instead of 5'11 I would be a healthy weight, albeit at the top end. As it it I should be losing 9llb.
    There's a cycling kit supply company called "Fat Lad at the Back".

    "Won't leave you looking like a badly packed sausage"

    https://fatladattheback.com/collections/mens
    Possibly the most valuable PB post ever.👍🏻
  • Options
    No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 3,799
    edited July 2020

    Scott_xP said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Credit where it's due, I didn't expect this govt to do anything much on obesity.

    I criticized them for not pushing people to lose weight a month or two back, so am very pleasantly surprised to see Boris making the link between protecting the NHS and staying healthier.

    They're even doing some restrictions on advertising, must admit I'm stunned they're willing to annoy big business like that.

    https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1287637827203850241
    Are they still promoting the "Eat Out to Help Out" campaign?
    I am not by nature an anti-government free market kind of person, but even I can see the absurdity of the government spending money to both encourage and discourage people from eating at McDonalds.
    And will we still be subsidising sugar beet farmers?
  • Options
    contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    This government really does have a talent for undermining its own edicts,

    The digital sales tax is mooted after just days after compulsory masks in shops was supposed to revive the high street.

    The government must already know full well its an absolute stinker of a policy, just a few days after its imposition.

    I mean FFS, how much longer are the tories going to let Johnson carry on with this stuff??
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,108

    This government really does have a talent for undermining its own edicts,

    The digital sales tax is mooted after just days after compulsory masks in shops was supposed to revive the high street.

    The government must already know full well its an absolute stinker of a policy, just a few days after its imposition.

    I mean FFS, how much longer are the tories going to let Johnson carry on with this stuff??

    To save Hyufd the effort:

    As long as he keeps winning them elections.
  • Options
    Fysics_TeacherFysics_Teacher Posts: 6,060
    MaxPB said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Credit where it's due, I didn't expect this govt to do anything much on obesity.

    I criticized them for not pushing people to lose weight a month or two back, so am very pleasantly surprised to see Boris making the link between protecting the NHS and staying healthier.

    They're even doing some restrictions on advertising, must admit I'm stunned they're willing to annoy big business like that.

    Yes, though I'm not sure sin taxes that treat everyone as if they have an issue is the way forwards. I used to have the occasional McDonald's breakfast on the way to the office when the London Wall branch existed, I haven't got a problem with my weight and neither did the majority of people also getting breakfast.

    I think promotion of a healthier lifestyle including exercise, healthier home cooked food and making cooking a mandatory GCSE and making them learn useful things, not how to make fun stuff like cakes.
    A full GCSE may be overkill, particularly if it is made compulsory.

    The cost would also be eye-watering: I was a governor at a school which installed one small food technology lab (aka kitchen) with space for 24 pupils. It cost the best part of £450,000, paid for by the county.
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,964
    Mr. Teacher, I do sympathise with teachers given the tendency for the political class to just hurl problems into the curriculum as things to be taught. That sort of government by headline is often not well-considered, and budgets are going to be constrained with the economic impact of the plague.
  • Options
    Fysics_TeacherFysics_Teacher Posts: 6,060
    Cyclefree said:

    Off topic but on the topic of trains, so I hope I will be forgiven.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/world/frances-love-affair-with-speed-derailed-as-macron-signals-sleepers-return-92mcgptpq

    If you live long enough what was absolutely normal as a child comes around.

    We used to travel to Italy regularly as a child on sleeper trains. Initially from Victoria and then Calais, changing at Paris going to Rome and then the last change there for the train to Naples. I have so many happy memories of these train journeys: the peculiar smell of trains (especially the combination of steam and sea as we arrived at Calais for the ferry), everything about Wagons-Lits, eating dinner, peering out at night to see the station names, hearing the announcements and waking up to the smell of a new country and watching how the light changed and the gradual differences in houses, stations, countryside etc. Plus the people. Wonderful.

    Then when my family were younger we’d take the car across and go to Brussels or Paris and do something similar: put the car on the train and travel with it to Nice or Livorno, avoiding the dreary drive through France. Belgium closed its service a few years ago.

    The last time I did it was in 2016 with my daughter when we went to Nice from Paris. The service was awful: rude, uncaring staff, shabby trains, trains delayed etc. It had the air of a service that was being deliberately run down to turn away customers and justify its closure. And that happened in 2017.

    And now it is being revived. Plus ca change, eh?

    I love train travel across Europe. There should be much much more of it. Far nicer than planes. Greener too. And it has the possibility of fun adventure, in a way which flights really don’t have.

    I have many happy memories of a month spent Inter-railing back in ‘89 which was planned in such away that we spent as many nights as possible on trains rather than youth-hostels or camping in an effort to save money. It worked, though I would not have wanted to be the poor people who shared a compartment with us as we headed to Istanbul and the first shower of the trip.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,152
    US.

    “There is open talk – not internet crazy talk – of there being some kind of civil war.”

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2020/07/27/trump-may-lose-election-american-culture-war-will-continue-rage/
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,108

    Mr. Teacher, I do sympathise with teachers given the tendency for the political class to just hurl problems into the curriculum as things to be taught. That sort of government by headline is often not well-considered, and budgets are going to be constrained with the economic impact of the plague.

    And the teachers’ pay rise, if it is passed on. Because it is unfunded.

    That is going to cause a lot of trouble. Any school that doesn’t pass it on will face riots from their staff. Any school that does will be left up a certain creek without a certain instrument financially.
  • Options
    noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,625
    edited July 2020

    HYUFD said:
    I assume he’s not going to get paid whilst he’s out there?
    He doesnt have to meet the rest of the sleazy cabinet for two weeks. The rest of the cabinet dont have to meet him for two weeks. Has there ever been a clearer example of a win-win scenario?
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,937

    This government really does have a talent for undermining its own edicts,

    The digital sales tax is mooted after just days after compulsory masks in shops was supposed to revive the high street.

    The government must already know full well its an absolute stinker of a policy, just a few days after its imposition.

    I mean FFS, how much longer are the tories going to let Johnson carry on with this stuff??

    No, the facemasks will reduce the spread of Covid and allow people to safely return to in store shopping while the digital sales tax will ensure high street shops can compete on a level playing field with online retailers who do not pay business tax while also reflecting the fact online retailers are the only sector of the economy who saw vastly increased revenues as a result of lockdown.

    Boris is doing an excellent job and continues to lead the polls
  • Options
    nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:
    I assume he’s not going to get paid whilst he’s out there?
    Well, he should be paid while on holiday.

    If he can’t resume his work as a minister immediately on return, however...
    Could he do his work as a minister before he went on holiday?
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,961

    HYUFD said:
    I assume he’s not going to get paid whilst he’s out there?
    Ministers aren’t entitled to holidays now?
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,108
    nichomar said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:
    I assume he’s not going to get paid whilst he’s out there?
    Well, he should be paid while on holiday.

    If he can’t resume his work as a minister immediately on return, however...
    Could he do his work as a minister before he went on holiday?
    Good point.

    Although he’s not by any means the worst of the current lot.
  • Options
    felixfelix Posts: 15,124
    MaxPB said:

    One worry I have about all of this adjustable quarantine is that it incentivises countries to hide outbreaks if being honest results in economic desolation. If Spain had been less honest about the scale of the outbreak then they wouldn't have ended up on the red list. I actually think between European countries either via the EU or a multilateral agreement there should be a minimum standard set on testing and reporting of virus statistics. That way there is no perverse incentive to cover up outbreaks and leave people in the dark about what kind of situation they are potentially heading into.

    You were saying.....?

    "Spain’s coronavirus death toll could be up to 60 per cent higher than official figures suggest, an investigation has found.

    Spanish government figures set the total number of Covid-19 deaths at 28,432, however, research conducted by El Pais newspaper says it could be as high as 44,868."
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,079
    edited July 2020

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    On topic: aren't voters in the 2019 Tory gains more invested in "Boris" than the Tory party? So perhaps it's not surprising: given structural antipathy to the Tories in many of these areas, it was only seats where Johnson himself was particularly popular that the Tory candidate won. In traditional Tory seats, by contrast, "Boris" was likely less important as a selling point. A corollary of this is that replacing Johnson mid-term in an effort to bolster Tory support may have the opposite effect in some of these seats. I have a gut feeling that Sunak may be less popular in these seats than in the traditional Tory home counties, but it'd be interesting to see polling on that.
    There's also the Brexit factor at work, although I imagine that will fade as an issue over time, especially if it turns out to be a bit shit, as seems likely.

    Indeed, according to Redfield 2019 Tory voters prefer Boris to Starmer by more than they prefer Sunak to Starmer, only 2019 LD voters prefer Sunak to Starmer by more than they prefer Boris to Starmer and the latter are very posh London and Home Counties centred

    https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voting-intention-22-july/
    One very likely explanation for this is the similar psychological response to a change in buying behaviour, a kind of confirmation bias that is the opposite to buyers remorse. In other words, I have changed who I buy from, away from my traditional brand, and I need to keep telling myself it was the right decision, because part of me tells me it was not. "I DID make the right decision! I DID" The person will look for those reasons why they should convince themselves it was the correct decision. Clever brands will keep marketing to such folk to keep them on board. In political terms Tony Blair was the most recent to achieve this, and before him Margaret Thatcher.

    As I have said many times before, Johnson is no Tony Blair, and he is definitely no Margaret Thatcher. This effect will doubtless melt away long before another GE.
    That explanation doesn't explain why they "bought from him" in the first place.

    There's no swing in these number. The logical thought surely is that the voters in these seats like him . . . because they like him . . . and that's why they voted for him in the first place. Not that they voted for him then decided they like him, because they voted for him.
    You and Nigel are both right. They voted for Johnson because they like him and they say they still like him. The latter could be for one of two reasons. (i) It's too early to have realized the mistake. (ii) They have realized their mistake but are not yet ready to admit it. All the Red Wallers are probably in one or the other camp. We can postulate that a (iii) category - realized the mistake AND saying so - is virtually empty right now. It must be otherwise it would be showing up in the data.

    The key question here - which we can't answer - is what is the split between (i) and (ii). Heavily (i) means good news for the Cons. Their strategy is predicated on the Red Wall still being in a (i) state by the time of the next election - because if these voters have not clocked their mistake by then the chances are they will repeat it. But if (as I hope) there are lots in (ii), Labour are set fair. Why? Because from (ii) it's only a matter of time before they take the decisive step to (iii) - which will duly show up in the polls and more importantly at the ballot box.
    Odd that you don't have category (iv) they haven't made a mistake.

    Anyway Nigel is disagreeing with that, he postulates despite the evidence to the contrary that people voted just because they disliked Corbyn and they never liked Johnson in the first place. Despite the polls saying the opposite.
    There's no need for a category (iv) because in terms of impact it's the same as (i). There is no electoral difference between a Red Waller voting Tory not realizing they are being conned and one who does so positively in the knowledge of being conned - i.e. has not really been conned at all.

    I happen to disagree with Nigel on the 2nd point. I think Johnson is a genuine asset when it comes to elections and I fear this will continue to be the case.
  • Options
    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,077
    HYUFD said:

    This government really does have a talent for undermining its own edicts,

    The digital sales tax is mooted after just days after compulsory masks in shops was supposed to revive the high street.

    The government must already know full well its an absolute stinker of a policy, just a few days after its imposition.

    I mean FFS, how much longer are the tories going to let Johnson carry on with this stuff??

    No, the facemasks will reduce the spread of Covid and allow people to safely return to in store shopping while the digital sales tax will ensure high street shops can compete on a level playing field with online retailers who do not pay business tax while also reflecting the fact online retailers are the only sector of the economy who saw vastly increased revenues as a result of lockdown.

    Boris is doing an excellent job and continues to lead the polls
    So when/if Labour lead in the polls, does that mean he is no longer doing an excellent job?
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,937
    edited July 2020

    US.

    “There is open talk – not internet crazy talk – of there being some kind of civil war.”

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2020/07/27/trump-may-lose-election-american-culture-war-will-continue-rage/

    I foresee a 269-269 result as very plausible, the first EC tie since 1800 as per this map
    https://www.270towin.com/

    Such a result would fully reflect the fact the US is literally split down the middle on the culture war
  • Options
    felixfelix Posts: 15,124

    kle4 said:

    A lot of places will probably end up with very different totals to now. Being second or third or whatever in deaths likely means little but we can broadly see who has had a bad outcome.
    How could Spain's death toll be so high, given its draconian lockdown measures (much fetishised on here), and its compulsory masks everywhere rules?

    The bad figures predate the lockdown in the main. In addition Spanish towns have a lot of high density housing. Families cohabiting are much larger and being Spanish involves a lot of touching. I'm sure there are many others.
  • Options
    Fysics_TeacherFysics_Teacher Posts: 6,060

    HYUFD said:
    I assume he’s not going to get paid whilst he’s out there?

    Mr. Teacher, I do sympathise with teachers given the tendency for the political class to just hurl problems into the curriculum as things to be taught. That sort of government by headline is often not well-considered, and budgets are going to be constrained with the economic impact of the plague.

    Teaching basic cookery skills is very useful, but with all these things the question that needs to be asked is: instead of what?
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,940
    edited July 2020
    HYUFD said:
    2 weeks holiday 2 weeks quarantining.
    4 weeks away from the Cabinet.
    Tough call.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,108
    edited July 2020
    HYUFD said:

    US.

    “There is open talk – not internet crazy talk – of there being some kind of civil war.”

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2020/07/27/trump-may-lose-election-american-culture-war-will-continue-rage/

    I foresee a 269-269 result as very plausible, the first EC tie since 1800 as per this map
    https://www.270towin.com/

    Such a result would fully reflect the fact the US is literally split down the middle on the culture war
    In such a case, Biden would undoubtedly have won the popular vote, but if I understand the rules correctly Trump would win the election as he would have carried most states and that is the de facto tiebreaker.

    That would of course do wonders to improve the situation...
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,606

    HYUFD said:
    I assume he’s not going to get paid whilst he’s out there?
    He's entitled to paid annual leave.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,216
    eek said:

    RH1992 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    RH1992 said:

    The consultation and the implementation of such a policy will take months, by which time you'd hope we'd be in a better position. Even so, "essentials" such as food shopping/DIY/childrens' clothing could be exempted as with VAT at present. I agree in principle that online companies get too much of an easy ride on tax and we should be tapping into this.

    As noted elsewhere, the problem is Amazon.

    If Amazon paid "their fare share of tax" the problem would be solved. It wouldn't be necessary to penalise UK businesses that happen to sell "mail order"
    It is when you have companies like Boohoo and ASOS undercutting high street chains significantly because they don't pay business rates or have rent to pay landlords. Nearly all larger businesses can move online and survive, but that would involve sacrificing footfall that many independent businesses in the same city centres as the bigger chains rely on to survive.

    We need to find the right balance between giving people the convenience of online shopping where necessary/desirable, but also encouraging people (when it is completely safe of course) to go and spend in their local economy.
    https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/introduction-of-the-digital-services-tax
    That's not the same thing - it's a tax on services provided by American firms who could plausible not have any UK presence
    "These businesses will be liable to Digital Services Tax when the group’s worldwide revenues from these digital activities are more than £500 million and more than £25 million of these revenues are derived from UK users.

    If the group’s revenues exceed these thresholds, its revenues derived from UK users will be taxed at a rate of 2%."

    It targets very large online businesses.

    Judging by the above quote, you are liable, even if you are a UK firm in the UK.

    Probably doesn't catch any UK companies as yet...

    But it would be possible to change those thresholds....
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,937
    edited July 2020
    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    US.

    “There is open talk – not internet crazy talk – of there being some kind of civil war.”

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2020/07/27/trump-may-lose-election-american-culture-war-will-continue-rage/

    I foresee a 269-269 result as very plausible, the first EC tie since 1800 as per this map
    https://www.270towin.com/

    Such a result would fully reflect the fact the US is literally split down the middle on the culture war
    In such a case, Biden would of course have won the popular vote, but Trump would win the election as he would have carried most states and that is the de facto tiebreaker.

    That would of course do wonders to improve the situation...
    Probably, though it should be pointed out Biden is doing better in the rustbelt swing states than Hillary but Trump is doing slightly better in California than he did in 2016 so the popular vote could be very close as well as the EC.

    The House would likely stay Democrat but Trump would win as a majority of states would still have a majority of GOP representatives even if the Democrats have more representatives overall
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,606
    felix said:

    MaxPB said:

    One worry I have about all of this adjustable quarantine is that it incentivises countries to hide outbreaks if being honest results in economic desolation. If Spain had been less honest about the scale of the outbreak then they wouldn't have ended up on the red list. I actually think between European countries either via the EU or a multilateral agreement there should be a minimum standard set on testing and reporting of virus statistics. That way there is no perverse incentive to cover up outbreaks and leave people in the dark about what kind of situation they are potentially heading into.

    You were saying.....?

    "Spain’s coronavirus death toll could be up to 60 per cent higher than official figures suggest, an investigation has found.

    Spanish government figures set the total number of Covid-19 deaths at 28,432, however, research conducted by El Pais newspaper says it could be as high as 44,868."
    A lot of that is historical data being added, but yes that's sort of what I'm getting at. We shouldn't be in a situation where governments can benefit from lying about the stats which will end up causing a second wave.
  • Options
    WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 8,503
    edited July 2020

    Cyclefree said:

    Off topic but on the topic of trains, so I hope I will be forgiven.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/world/frances-love-affair-with-speed-derailed-as-macron-signals-sleepers-return-92mcgptpq

    If you live long enough what was absolutely normal as a child comes around.

    We used to travel to Italy regularly as a child on sleeper trains. Initially from Victoria and then Calais, changing at Paris going to Rome and then the last change there for the train to Naples. I have so many happy memories of these train journeys: the peculiar smell of trains (especially the combination of steam and sea as we arrived at Calais for the ferry), everything about Wagons-Lits, eating dinner, peering out at night to see the station names, hearing the announcements and waking up to the smell of a new country and watching how the light changed and the gradual differences in houses, stations, countryside etc. Plus the people. Wonderful.

    Then when my family were younger we’d take the car across and go to Brussels or Paris and do something similar: put the car on the train and travel with it to Nice or Livorno, avoiding the dreary drive through France. Belgium closed its service a few years ago.

    The last time I did it was in 2016 with my daughter when we went to Nice from Paris. The service was awful: rude, uncaring staff, shabby trains, trains delayed etc. It had the air of a service that was being deliberately run down to turn away customers and justify its closure. And that happened in 2017.

    And now it is being revived. Plus ca change, eh?

    I love train travel across Europe. There should be much much more of it. Far nicer than planes. Greener too. And it has the possibility of fun adventure, in a way which flights really don’t have.

    I have many happy memories of a month spent Inter-railing back in ‘89 which was planned in such away that we spent as many nights as possible on trains rather than youth-hostels or camping in an effort to save money. It worked, though I would not have wanted to be the poor people who shared a compartment with us as we headed to Istanbul and the first shower of the trip.
    The overnight from France to Italy has been awful for a few years, as it was one of the last remaining sleepers in Europe, but just in the last couple of years they had started to improve it. It's been suspended for now, with the lack of tourism and health conditions etc, but I suspect it will be back even stronger and even more in demand. I had two very nice trips across to Italy on it the last couple of years, before heading on to Greece.
  • Options
    Fysics_TeacherFysics_Teacher Posts: 6,060

    eek said:

    RH1992 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    RH1992 said:

    The consultation and the implementation of such a policy will take months, by which time you'd hope we'd be in a better position. Even so, "essentials" such as food shopping/DIY/childrens' clothing could be exempted as with VAT at present. I agree in principle that online companies get too much of an easy ride on tax and we should be tapping into this.

    As noted elsewhere, the problem is Amazon.

    If Amazon paid "their fare share of tax" the problem would be solved. It wouldn't be necessary to penalise UK businesses that happen to sell "mail order"
    It is when you have companies like Boohoo and ASOS undercutting high street chains significantly because they don't pay business rates or have rent to pay landlords. Nearly all larger businesses can move online and survive, but that would involve sacrificing footfall that many independent businesses in the same city centres as the bigger chains rely on to survive.

    We need to find the right balance between giving people the convenience of online shopping where necessary/desirable, but also encouraging people (when it is completely safe of course) to go and spend in their local economy.
    https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/introduction-of-the-digital-services-tax
    That's not the same thing - it's a tax on services provided by American firms who could plausible not have any UK presence
    "These businesses will be liable to Digital Services Tax when the group’s worldwide revenues from these digital activities are more than £500 million and more than £25 million of these revenues are derived from UK users.

    If the group’s revenues exceed these thresholds, its revenues derived from UK users will be taxed at a rate of 2%."

    It targets very large online businesses.

    Judging by the above quote, you are liable, even if you are a UK firm in the UK.

    Probably doesn't catch any UK companies as yet...

    But it would be possible to change those thresholds....
    Would that catch the BBC then?
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,940

    HYUFD said:
    I assume he’s not going to get paid whilst he’s out there?

    Mr. Teacher, I do sympathise with teachers given the tendency for the political class to just hurl problems into the curriculum as things to be taught. That sort of government by headline is often not well-considered, and budgets are going to be constrained with the economic impact of the plague.

    Teaching basic cookery skills is very useful, but with all these things the question that needs to be asked is: instead of what?
    In the case of plenty of schools where?
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,108

    HYUFD said:
    I assume he’s not going to get paid whilst he’s out there?

    Mr. Teacher, I do sympathise with teachers given the tendency for the political class to just hurl problems into the curriculum as things to be taught. That sort of government by headline is often not well-considered, and budgets are going to be constrained with the economic impact of the plague.

    Teaching basic cookery skills is very useful, but with all these things the question that needs to be asked is: instead of what?
    Do it as part of maths instead of boring shit like algebra and calculus.
  • Options
    noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,625

    HYUFD said:
    I assume he’s not going to get paid whilst he’s out there?

    Mr. Teacher, I do sympathise with teachers given the tendency for the political class to just hurl problems into the curriculum as things to be taught. That sort of government by headline is often not well-considered, and budgets are going to be constrained with the economic impact of the plague.

    Teaching basic cookery skills is very useful, but with all these things the question that needs to be asked is: instead of what?
    Imagine if there were no schools and the first one was invented. Wouldnt it be very curious if things like parenting, health, cooking, relationships were not taught to at least a satisfactory level for society?

    When we had a more rigid society with bigger household and intergenerational groups there was probably less need for those to be formally taught, but its clear in todays modern society those need to be near the top of the list for education as too many kids miss out, and in turn struggle to help their kids and so on.
  • Options
    Fysics_TeacherFysics_Teacher Posts: 6,060

    Cyclefree said:

    Off topic but on the topic of trains, so I hope I will be forgiven.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/world/frances-love-affair-with-speed-derailed-as-macron-signals-sleepers-return-92mcgptpq

    If you live long enough what was absolutely normal as a child comes around.

    We used to travel to Italy regularly as a child on sleeper trains. Initially from Victoria and then Calais, changing at Paris going to Rome and then the last change there for the train to Naples. I have so many happy memories of these train journeys: the peculiar smell of trains (especially the combination of steam and sea as we arrived at Calais for the ferry), everything about Wagons-Lits, eating dinner, peering out at night to see the station names, hearing the announcements and waking up to the smell of a new country and watching how the light changed and the gradual differences in houses, stations, countryside etc. Plus the people. Wonderful.

    Then when my family were younger we’d take the car across and go to Brussels or Paris and do something similar: put the car on the train and travel with it to Nice or Livorno, avoiding the dreary drive through France. Belgium closed its service a few years ago.

    The last time I did it was in 2016 with my daughter when we went to Nice from Paris. The service was awful: rude, uncaring staff, shabby trains, trains delayed etc. It had the air of a service that was being deliberately run down to turn away customers and justify its closure. And that happened in 2017.

    And now it is being revived. Plus ca change, eh?

    I love train travel across Europe. There should be much much more of it. Far nicer than planes. Greener too. And it has the possibility of fun adventure, in a way which flights really don’t have.

    I have many happy memories of a month spent Inter-railing back in ‘89 which was planned in such away that we spent as many nights as possible on trains rather than youth-hostels or camping in an effort to save money. It worked, though I would not have wanted to be the poor people who shared a compartment with us as we headed to Istanbul and the first shower of the trip.
    The overnight from France to Italy has been awful for a few years, as it was one of the last remaining sleepers, but just in the last couple of years, they had started to improve it. It's been suspended for now with the lack of tourism and health conditions etc, but I suspect it will be back even stronger and even more in demand. I had two very nice trips across to Italy on it the last couple of years, before heading on to Greece.
    The Italian leg of the trip went (from memory): Brindizi, Venice, Naples, Switzerland, Rome, Piza, and then on to Nice.
  • Options
    Fysics_TeacherFysics_Teacher Posts: 6,060
    edited July 2020
    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:
    I assume he’s not going to get paid whilst he’s out there?

    Mr. Teacher, I do sympathise with teachers given the tendency for the political class to just hurl problems into the curriculum as things to be taught. That sort of government by headline is often not well-considered, and budgets are going to be constrained with the economic impact of the plague.

    Teaching basic cookery skills is very useful, but with all these things the question that needs to be asked is: instead of what?
    In the case of plenty of schools where?
    That is also a good question. Cooking in schools also runs up against some significant restrictions most would not have at home, such as a strict no nuts policy.

    Edit: and no, I’m not being sexist...
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,216

    eek said:

    RH1992 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    RH1992 said:

    The consultation and the implementation of such a policy will take months, by which time you'd hope we'd be in a better position. Even so, "essentials" such as food shopping/DIY/childrens' clothing could be exempted as with VAT at present. I agree in principle that online companies get too much of an easy ride on tax and we should be tapping into this.

    As noted elsewhere, the problem is Amazon.

    If Amazon paid "their fare share of tax" the problem would be solved. It wouldn't be necessary to penalise UK businesses that happen to sell "mail order"
    It is when you have companies like Boohoo and ASOS undercutting high street chains significantly because they don't pay business rates or have rent to pay landlords. Nearly all larger businesses can move online and survive, but that would involve sacrificing footfall that many independent businesses in the same city centres as the bigger chains rely on to survive.

    We need to find the right balance between giving people the convenience of online shopping where necessary/desirable, but also encouraging people (when it is completely safe of course) to go and spend in their local economy.
    https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/introduction-of-the-digital-services-tax
    That's not the same thing - it's a tax on services provided by American firms who could plausible not have any UK presence
    "These businesses will be liable to Digital Services Tax when the group’s worldwide revenues from these digital activities are more than £500 million and more than £25 million of these revenues are derived from UK users.

    If the group’s revenues exceed these thresholds, its revenues derived from UK users will be taxed at a rate of 2%."

    It targets very large online businesses.

    Judging by the above quote, you are liable, even if you are a UK firm in the UK.

    Probably doesn't catch any UK companies as yet...

    But it would be possible to change those thresholds....
    Would that catch the BBC then?
    That is a rather interesting suggestion.

    LOL - because many of the advocates of the EvulsOfAmericanOnlineDominationAndNotPayingTax are BBC enthusiasts.
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,606

    Cyclefree said:

    Off topic but on the topic of trains, so I hope I will be forgiven.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/world/frances-love-affair-with-speed-derailed-as-macron-signals-sleepers-return-92mcgptpq

    If you live long enough what was absolutely normal as a child comes around.

    We used to travel to Italy regularly as a child on sleeper trains. Initially from Victoria and then Calais, changing at Paris going to Rome and then the last change there for the train to Naples. I have so many happy memories of these train journeys: the peculiar smell of trains (especially the combination of steam and sea as we arrived at Calais for the ferry), everything about Wagons-Lits, eating dinner, peering out at night to see the station names, hearing the announcements and waking up to the smell of a new country and watching how the light changed and the gradual differences in houses, stations, countryside etc. Plus the people. Wonderful.

    Then when my family were younger we’d take the car across and go to Brussels or Paris and do something similar: put the car on the train and travel with it to Nice or Livorno, avoiding the dreary drive through France. Belgium closed its service a few years ago.

    The last time I did it was in 2016 with my daughter when we went to Nice from Paris. The service was awful: rude, uncaring staff, shabby trains, trains delayed etc. It had the air of a service that was being deliberately run down to turn away customers and justify its closure. And that happened in 2017.

    And now it is being revived. Plus ca change, eh?

    I love train travel across Europe. There should be much much more of it. Far nicer than planes. Greener too. And it has the possibility of fun adventure, in a way which flights really don’t have.

    I have many happy memories of a month spent Inter-railing back in ‘89 which was planned in such away that we spent as many nights as possible on trains rather than youth-hostels or camping in an effort to save money. It worked, though I would not have wanted to be the poor people who shared a compartment with us as we headed to Istanbul and the first shower of the trip.
    The overnight from France to Italy has been awful for a few years, as it was one of the last remaining sleepers, but just in the last couple of years, they had started to improve it. It's been suspended for now with the lack of tourism and health conditions etc, but I suspect it will be back even stronger and even more in demand. I had two very nice trips across to Italy on it the last couple of years, before heading on to Greece.
    The Italian leg of the trip went (from memory): Brindizi, Venice, Naples, Switzerland, Rome, Piza, and then on to Nice.
    Did Switzerland have a random bit of Italy between Naples and Rome back then?!
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,108

    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:
    I assume he’s not going to get paid whilst he’s out there?

    Mr. Teacher, I do sympathise with teachers given the tendency for the political class to just hurl problems into the curriculum as things to be taught. That sort of government by headline is often not well-considered, and budgets are going to be constrained with the economic impact of the plague.

    Teaching basic cookery skills is very useful, but with all these things the question that needs to be asked is: instead of what?
    In the case of plenty of schools where?
    That is also a good question. Cooking in schools also runs up against some significant restrictions most would not have at home, such as a strict no nuts policy.

    Edit: and no, I’m not being sexist...
    No nuts would limit the number of politicians coming in looking for photo ops though.
  • Options
    Fysics_TeacherFysics_Teacher Posts: 6,060
    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:
    I assume he’s not going to get paid whilst he’s out there?

    Mr. Teacher, I do sympathise with teachers given the tendency for the political class to just hurl problems into the curriculum as things to be taught. That sort of government by headline is often not well-considered, and budgets are going to be constrained with the economic impact of the plague.

    Teaching basic cookery skills is very useful, but with all these things the question that needs to be asked is: instead of what?
    Do it as part of maths instead of boring shit like algebra and calculus.
    There is quite a bit of maths involved in cooking of course; cutting a pizza into seven equal pieces while ensuring that everyone gets their fair share of pineapple chunks is a non trivial task...
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,079

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    On topic: aren't voters in the 2019 Tory gains more invested in "Boris" than the Tory party? So perhaps it's not surprising: given structural antipathy to the Tories in many of these areas, it was only seats where Johnson himself was particularly popular that the Tory candidate won. In traditional Tory seats, by contrast, "Boris" was likely less important as a selling point. A corollary of this is that replacing Johnson mid-term in an effort to bolster Tory support may have the opposite effect in some of these seats. I have a gut feeling that Sunak may be less popular in these seats than in the traditional Tory home counties, but it'd be interesting to see polling on that.
    There's also the Brexit factor at work, although I imagine that will fade as an issue over time, especially if it turns out to be a bit shit, as seems likely.

    Indeed, according to Redfield 2019 Tory voters prefer Boris to Starmer by more than they prefer Sunak to Starmer, only 2019 LD voters prefer Sunak to Starmer by more than they prefer Boris to Starmer and the latter are very posh London and Home Counties centred

    https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voting-intention-22-july/
    One very likely explanation for this is the similar psychological response to a change in buying behaviour, a kind of confirmation bias that is the opposite to buyers remorse. In other words, I have changed who I buy from, away from my traditional brand, and I need to keep telling myself it was the right decision, because part of me tells me it was not. "I DID make the right decision! I DID" The person will look for those reasons why they should convince themselves it was the correct decision. Clever brands will keep marketing to such folk to keep them on board. In political terms Tony Blair was the most recent to achieve this, and before him Margaret Thatcher.

    As I have said many times before, Johnson is no Tony Blair, and he is definitely no Margaret Thatcher. This effect will doubtless melt away long before another GE.
    That explanation doesn't explain why they "bought from him" in the first place.

    There's no swing in these number. The logical thought surely is that the voters in these seats like him . . . because they like him . . . and that's why they voted for him in the first place. Not that they voted for him then decided they like him, because they voted for him.
    You and Nigel are both right. They voted for Johnson because they like him and they say they still like him. The latter could be for one of two reasons. (i) It's too early to have realized the mistake. (ii) They have realized their mistake but are not yet ready to admit it. All the Red Wallers are probably in one or the other camp. We can postulate that a (iii) category - realized the mistake AND saying so - is virtually empty right now. It must be otherwise it would be showing up in the data.

    The key question here - which we can't answer - is what is the split between (i) and (ii). Heavily (i) means good news for the Cons. Their strategy is predicated on the Red Wall still being in a (i) state by the time of the next election - because if these voters have not clocked their mistake by then the chances are they will repeat it. But if (as I hope) there are lots in (ii), Labour are set fair. Why? Because from (ii) it's only a matter of time before they take the decisive step to (iii) - which will duly show up in the polls and more importantly at the ballot box.
    My view is that while Johnson is good at appealing to voters in a reality TV kinda way( that is something I don't understand, but there we are), he is fundamentally weak at actual executive leadership. Unless he is supremely lucky, which is unlikely in these uncertain times, even the most apolitical will gradually realise this. Either that, or I am completely wrong and Boris Johnson defies all the usual laws of leadership. Unlikely.
    Yes, good at elections, shit at the job. You may be right that the appeal wears off but I'm more pessimistic. In the guise of his "Boris" creation, Johnson tickles the parts other politicians do not. Now my strong view is that those parts - that he's tickling - are best left alone. No good comes of it. But as long as he is allowed to get away with being "Boris", with pushing the brand, he will. Hopefully he and it will be busted, one way or another, before the next election. Few signs of it happening yet though.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,108
    edited July 2020

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:
    I assume he’s not going to get paid whilst he’s out there?

    Mr. Teacher, I do sympathise with teachers given the tendency for the political class to just hurl problems into the curriculum as things to be taught. That sort of government by headline is often not well-considered, and budgets are going to be constrained with the economic impact of the plague.

    Teaching basic cookery skills is very useful, but with all these things the question that needs to be asked is: instead of what?
    Do it as part of maths instead of boring shit like algebra and calculus.
    There is quite a bit of maths involved in cooking of course; cutting a pizza into seven equal pieces while ensuring that everyone gets their fair share of pineapple chunks is a non trivial task...
    Exactly.

    Apart from the obscene remarks, which if repeated in an actual school would see you in breach of Standards 1 and 8.
  • Options
    noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,625
    HYUFD said:
    Presumably because they are more likely to live in homes with gardens rather than your city dwellers in small flats. Hardly surprising.
  • Options
    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,077
    edited July 2020

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:
    I assume he’s not going to get paid whilst he’s out there?

    Mr. Teacher, I do sympathise with teachers given the tendency for the political class to just hurl problems into the curriculum as things to be taught. That sort of government by headline is often not well-considered, and budgets are going to be constrained with the economic impact of the plague.

    Teaching basic cookery skills is very useful, but with all these things the question that needs to be asked is: instead of what?
    Do it as part of maths instead of boring shit like algebra and calculus.
    There is quite a bit of maths involved in cooking of course; cutting a pizza into seven equal pieces while ensuring that everyone gets their fair share of pineapple chunks is a non trivial task...
    x = number of slices that end up in the bin.
    x = 7.
  • Options
    TimTTimT Posts: 6,328
    HYUFD said:

    US.

    “There is open talk – not internet crazy talk – of there being some kind of civil war.”

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2020/07/27/trump-may-lose-election-american-culture-war-will-continue-rage/

    I foresee a 269-269 result as very plausible, the first EC tie since 1800 as per this map
    https://www.270towin.com/

    Such a result would fully reflect the fact the US is literally split down the middle on the culture war
    Talking bullshit again, as per usual when it comes to the US.
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:
    I assume he’s not going to get paid whilst he’s out there?

    Mr. Teacher, I do sympathise with teachers given the tendency for the political class to just hurl problems into the curriculum as things to be taught. That sort of government by headline is often not well-considered, and budgets are going to be constrained with the economic impact of the plague.

    Teaching basic cookery skills is very useful, but with all these things the question that needs to be asked is: instead of what?
    Do it as part of maths instead of boring shit like algebra and calculus.
    There is quite a bit of maths involved in cooking of course; cutting a pizza into seven equal pieces while ensuring that everyone gets their fair share of pineapple chunks is a non trivial task...
    Pineapple on a pizza is great, but anyone who cuts a pizza into an odd number of slices is not to be trusted . . .
  • Options
    Fysics_TeacherFysics_Teacher Posts: 6,060

    eek said:

    RH1992 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    RH1992 said:

    The consultation and the implementation of such a policy will take months, by which time you'd hope we'd be in a better position. Even so, "essentials" such as food shopping/DIY/childrens' clothing could be exempted as with VAT at present. I agree in principle that online companies get too much of an easy ride on tax and we should be tapping into this.

    As noted elsewhere, the problem is Amazon.

    If Amazon paid "their fare share of tax" the problem would be solved. It wouldn't be necessary to penalise UK businesses that happen to sell "mail order"
    It is when you have companies like Boohoo and ASOS undercutting high street chains significantly because they don't pay business rates or have rent to pay landlords. Nearly all larger businesses can move online and survive, but that would involve sacrificing footfall that many independent businesses in the same city centres as the bigger chains rely on to survive.

    We need to find the right balance between giving people the convenience of online shopping where necessary/desirable, but also encouraging people (when it is completely safe of course) to go and spend in their local economy.
    https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/introduction-of-the-digital-services-tax
    That's not the same thing - it's a tax on services provided by American firms who could plausible not have any UK presence
    "These businesses will be liable to Digital Services Tax when the group’s worldwide revenues from these digital activities are more than £500 million and more than £25 million of these revenues are derived from UK users.

    If the group’s revenues exceed these thresholds, its revenues derived from UK users will be taxed at a rate of 2%."

    It targets very large online businesses.

    Judging by the above quote, you are liable, even if you are a UK firm in the UK.

    Probably doesn't catch any UK companies as yet...

    But it would be possible to change those thresholds....
    Would that catch the BBC then?
    That is a rather interesting suggestion.

    LOL - because many of the advocates of the EvulsOfAmericanOnlineDominationAndNotPayingTax are BBC enthusiasts.
    Well their digital activity is all of it these days except for some radio, and all their revenue is UK based. I’m also fairly sure the turnover is more than £500 million.

    If they don’t get charged someone who does might decide to cry foul.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,108

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:
    I assume he’s not going to get paid whilst he’s out there?

    Mr. Teacher, I do sympathise with teachers given the tendency for the political class to just hurl problems into the curriculum as things to be taught. That sort of government by headline is often not well-considered, and budgets are going to be constrained with the economic impact of the plague.

    Teaching basic cookery skills is very useful, but with all these things the question that needs to be asked is: instead of what?
    Do it as part of maths instead of boring shit like algebra and calculus.
    There is quite a bit of maths involved in cooking of course; cutting a pizza into seven equal pieces while ensuring that everyone gets their fair share of pineapple chunks is a non trivial task...
    x = number of slices that end up in the bin.
    x = 7.
    Then, having done algebra, arithmetic and distribution, what is the value of pie?
  • Options
    Fysics_TeacherFysics_Teacher Posts: 6,060
    MaxPB said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Off topic but on the topic of trains, so I hope I will be forgiven.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/world/frances-love-affair-with-speed-derailed-as-macron-signals-sleepers-return-92mcgptpq

    If you live long enough what was absolutely normal as a child comes around.

    We used to travel to Italy regularly as a child on sleeper trains. Initially from Victoria and then Calais, changing at Paris going to Rome and then the last change there for the train to Naples. I have so many happy memories of these train journeys: the peculiar smell of trains (especially the combination of steam and sea as we arrived at Calais for the ferry), everything about Wagons-Lits, eating dinner, peering out at night to see the station names, hearing the announcements and waking up to the smell of a new country and watching how the light changed and the gradual differences in houses, stations, countryside etc. Plus the people. Wonderful.

    Then when my family were younger we’d take the car across and go to Brussels or Paris and do something similar: put the car on the train and travel with it to Nice or Livorno, avoiding the dreary drive through France. Belgium closed its service a few years ago.

    The last time I did it was in 2016 with my daughter when we went to Nice from Paris. The service was awful: rude, uncaring staff, shabby trains, trains delayed etc. It had the air of a service that was being deliberately run down to turn away customers and justify its closure. And that happened in 2017.

    And now it is being revived. Plus ca change, eh?

    I love train travel across Europe. There should be much much more of it. Far nicer than planes. Greener too. And it has the possibility of fun adventure, in a way which flights really don’t have.

    I have many happy memories of a month spent Inter-railing back in ‘89 which was planned in such away that we spent as many nights as possible on trains rather than youth-hostels or camping in an effort to save money. It worked, though I would not have wanted to be the poor people who shared a compartment with us as we headed to Istanbul and the first shower of the trip.
    The overnight from France to Italy has been awful for a few years, as it was one of the last remaining sleepers, but just in the last couple of years, they had started to improve it. It's been suspended for now with the lack of tourism and health conditions etc, but I suspect it will be back even stronger and even more in demand. I had two very nice trips across to Italy on it the last couple of years, before heading on to Greece.
    The Italian leg of the trip went (from memory): Brindizi, Venice, Naples, Switzerland, Rome, Piza, and then on to Nice.
    Did Switzerland have a random bit of Italy between Naples and Rome back then?!
    The route was picked to maximise travel time so we could sleep on the trains.
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,606

    HYUFD said:
    I assume he’s not going to get paid whilst he’s out there?

    Mr. Teacher, I do sympathise with teachers given the tendency for the political class to just hurl problems into the curriculum as things to be taught. That sort of government by headline is often not well-considered, and budgets are going to be constrained with the economic impact of the plague.

    Teaching basic cookery skills is very useful, but with all these things the question that needs to be asked is: instead of what?
    When I was in school we had to do one of woodwork or graphical design. Get rid of those and make cooking compulsory. People should know how to make rice, pasta and other basics by the time they are 16. They should know how to make tasty and healthy food for themselves. Those who want to do the other two can have it as an additional option. Cooking is an essential life skill in a way that woodwork or graphical design isn't.
  • Options
    Fysics_TeacherFysics_Teacher Posts: 6,060

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:
    I assume he’s not going to get paid whilst he’s out there?

    Mr. Teacher, I do sympathise with teachers given the tendency for the political class to just hurl problems into the curriculum as things to be taught. That sort of government by headline is often not well-considered, and budgets are going to be constrained with the economic impact of the plague.

    Teaching basic cookery skills is very useful, but with all these things the question that needs to be asked is: instead of what?
    Do it as part of maths instead of boring shit like algebra and calculus.
    There is quite a bit of maths involved in cooking of course; cutting a pizza into seven equal pieces while ensuring that everyone gets their fair share of pineapple chunks is a non trivial task...
    Pineapple on a pizza is great, but anyone who cuts a pizza into an odd number of slices is not to be trusted . . .
    So what would you do if you had seven people? Cut it into 14 slices, two each?
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,606

    MaxPB said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Off topic but on the topic of trains, so I hope I will be forgiven.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/world/frances-love-affair-with-speed-derailed-as-macron-signals-sleepers-return-92mcgptpq

    If you live long enough what was absolutely normal as a child comes around.

    We used to travel to Italy regularly as a child on sleeper trains. Initially from Victoria and then Calais, changing at Paris going to Rome and then the last change there for the train to Naples. I have so many happy memories of these train journeys: the peculiar smell of trains (especially the combination of steam and sea as we arrived at Calais for the ferry), everything about Wagons-Lits, eating dinner, peering out at night to see the station names, hearing the announcements and waking up to the smell of a new country and watching how the light changed and the gradual differences in houses, stations, countryside etc. Plus the people. Wonderful.

    Then when my family were younger we’d take the car across and go to Brussels or Paris and do something similar: put the car on the train and travel with it to Nice or Livorno, avoiding the dreary drive through France. Belgium closed its service a few years ago.

    The last time I did it was in 2016 with my daughter when we went to Nice from Paris. The service was awful: rude, uncaring staff, shabby trains, trains delayed etc. It had the air of a service that was being deliberately run down to turn away customers and justify its closure. And that happened in 2017.

    And now it is being revived. Plus ca change, eh?

    I love train travel across Europe. There should be much much more of it. Far nicer than planes. Greener too. And it has the possibility of fun adventure, in a way which flights really don’t have.

    I have many happy memories of a month spent Inter-railing back in ‘89 which was planned in such away that we spent as many nights as possible on trains rather than youth-hostels or camping in an effort to save money. It worked, though I would not have wanted to be the poor people who shared a compartment with us as we headed to Istanbul and the first shower of the trip.
    The overnight from France to Italy has been awful for a few years, as it was one of the last remaining sleepers, but just in the last couple of years, they had started to improve it. It's been suspended for now with the lack of tourism and health conditions etc, but I suspect it will be back even stronger and even more in demand. I had two very nice trips across to Italy on it the last couple of years, before heading on to Greece.
    The Italian leg of the trip went (from memory): Brindizi, Venice, Naples, Switzerland, Rome, Piza, and then on to Nice.
    Did Switzerland have a random bit of Italy between Naples and Rome back then?!
    The route was picked to maximise travel time so we could sleep on the trains.
    I see! You must have gone through Rome to get to Lugano though.
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,606

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:
    I assume he’s not going to get paid whilst he’s out there?

    Mr. Teacher, I do sympathise with teachers given the tendency for the political class to just hurl problems into the curriculum as things to be taught. That sort of government by headline is often not well-considered, and budgets are going to be constrained with the economic impact of the plague.

    Teaching basic cookery skills is very useful, but with all these things the question that needs to be asked is: instead of what?
    Do it as part of maths instead of boring shit like algebra and calculus.
    There is quite a bit of maths involved in cooking of course; cutting a pizza into seven equal pieces while ensuring that everyone gets their fair share of pineapple chunks is a non trivial task...
    Pineapple on a pizza is great, but anyone who cuts a pizza into an odd number of slices is not to be trusted . . .
    So what would you do if you had seven people? Cut it into 14 slices, two each?
    Three pizzas 8 slices each, have leftovers the following morning. Throw away any with pineapple on them.
  • Options
    Fysics_TeacherFysics_Teacher Posts: 6,060
    MaxPB said:

    HYUFD said:
    I assume he’s not going to get paid whilst he’s out there?

    Mr. Teacher, I do sympathise with teachers given the tendency for the political class to just hurl problems into the curriculum as things to be taught. That sort of government by headline is often not well-considered, and budgets are going to be constrained with the economic impact of the plague.

    Teaching basic cookery skills is very useful, but with all these things the question that needs to be asked is: instead of what?
    When I was in school we had to do one of woodwork or graphical design. Get rid of those and make cooking compulsory. People should know how to make rice, pasta and other basics by the time they are 16. They should know how to make tasty and healthy food for themselves. Those who want to do the other two can have it as an additional option. Cooking is an essential life skill in a way that woodwork or graphical design isn't.
    At the school I teach at it is a compulsory part of the Y7 and Y8 curriculum (as is DT). We don’t offer it higher up except as an optional extra, non exam activity. DT is done at GCSE but only by about 25% of the pupils.
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,606

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:
    I assume he’s not going to get paid whilst he’s out there?

    Mr. Teacher, I do sympathise with teachers given the tendency for the political class to just hurl problems into the curriculum as things to be taught. That sort of government by headline is often not well-considered, and budgets are going to be constrained with the economic impact of the plague.

    Teaching basic cookery skills is very useful, but with all these things the question that needs to be asked is: instead of what?
    Do it as part of maths instead of boring shit like algebra and calculus.
    There is quite a bit of maths involved in cooking of course; cutting a pizza into seven equal pieces while ensuring that everyone gets their fair share of pineapple chunks is a non trivial task...
    Pineapple on a pizza is great, but anyone who cuts a pizza into an odd number of slices is not to be trusted . . .
    No, pineapple on pizza is a crime against food. Almost as bad as that woman destroying the rice.
  • Options
    Fysics_TeacherFysics_Teacher Posts: 6,060
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Off topic but on the topic of trains, so I hope I will be forgiven.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/world/frances-love-affair-with-speed-derailed-as-macron-signals-sleepers-return-92mcgptpq

    If you live long enough what was absolutely normal as a child comes around.

    We used to travel to Italy regularly as a child on sleeper trains. Initially from Victoria and then Calais, changing at Paris going to Rome and then the last change there for the train to Naples. I have so many happy memories of these train journeys: the peculiar smell of trains (especially the combination of steam and sea as we arrived at Calais for the ferry), everything about Wagons-Lits, eating dinner, peering out at night to see the station names, hearing the announcements and waking up to the smell of a new country and watching how the light changed and the gradual differences in houses, stations, countryside etc. Plus the people. Wonderful.

    Then when my family were younger we’d take the car across and go to Brussels or Paris and do something similar: put the car on the train and travel with it to Nice or Livorno, avoiding the dreary drive through France. Belgium closed its service a few years ago.

    The last time I did it was in 2016 with my daughter when we went to Nice from Paris. The service was awful: rude, uncaring staff, shabby trains, trains delayed etc. It had the air of a service that was being deliberately run down to turn away customers and justify its closure. And that happened in 2017.

    And now it is being revived. Plus ca change, eh?

    I love train travel across Europe. There should be much much more of it. Far nicer than planes. Greener too. And it has the possibility of fun adventure, in a way which flights really don’t have.

    I have many happy memories of a month spent Inter-railing back in ‘89 which was planned in such away that we spent as many nights as possible on trains rather than youth-hostels or camping in an effort to save money. It worked, though I would not have wanted to be the poor people who shared a compartment with us as we headed to Istanbul and the first shower of the trip.
    The overnight from France to Italy has been awful for a few years, as it was one of the last remaining sleepers, but just in the last couple of years, they had started to improve it. It's been suspended for now with the lack of tourism and health conditions etc, but I suspect it will be back even stronger and even more in demand. I had two very nice trips across to Italy on it the last couple of years, before heading on to Greece.
    The Italian leg of the trip went (from memory): Brindizi, Venice, Naples, Switzerland, Rome, Piza, and then on to Nice.
    Did Switzerland have a random bit of Italy between Naples and Rome back then?!
    The route was picked to maximise travel time so we could sleep on the trains.
    I see! You must have gone through Rome to get to Lugano though.
    I think we did, yes, but at night so we were asleep.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,336
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:
    I assume he’s not going to get paid whilst he’s out there?

    Mr. Teacher, I do sympathise with teachers given the tendency for the political class to just hurl problems into the curriculum as things to be taught. That sort of government by headline is often not well-considered, and budgets are going to be constrained with the economic impact of the plague.

    Teaching basic cookery skills is very useful, but with all these things the question that needs to be asked is: instead of what?
    Do it as part of maths instead of boring shit like algebra and calculus.
    There is quite a bit of maths involved in cooking of course; cutting a pizza into seven equal pieces while ensuring that everyone gets their fair share of pineapple chunks is a non trivial task...
    x = number of slices that end up in the bin.
    x = 7.
    Then, having done algebra, arithmetic and distribution, what is the value of pie?
    The calorific value deals with physics and biochemistry, too.
  • Options
    Fysics_TeacherFysics_Teacher Posts: 6,060
    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:
    I assume he’s not going to get paid whilst he’s out there?

    Mr. Teacher, I do sympathise with teachers given the tendency for the political class to just hurl problems into the curriculum as things to be taught. That sort of government by headline is often not well-considered, and budgets are going to be constrained with the economic impact of the plague.

    Teaching basic cookery skills is very useful, but with all these things the question that needs to be asked is: instead of what?
    Do it as part of maths instead of boring shit like algebra and calculus.
    There is quite a bit of maths involved in cooking of course; cutting a pizza into seven equal pieces while ensuring that everyone gets their fair share of pineapple chunks is a non trivial task...
    x = number of slices that end up in the bin.
    x = 7.
    Then, having done algebra, arithmetic and distribution, what is the value of pie?
    The calorific value deals with physics and biochemistry, too.
    Who knows what one calorie is defined as without looking it up?
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,606

    MaxPB said:

    HYUFD said:
    I assume he’s not going to get paid whilst he’s out there?

    Mr. Teacher, I do sympathise with teachers given the tendency for the political class to just hurl problems into the curriculum as things to be taught. That sort of government by headline is often not well-considered, and budgets are going to be constrained with the economic impact of the plague.

    Teaching basic cookery skills is very useful, but with all these things the question that needs to be asked is: instead of what?
    When I was in school we had to do one of woodwork or graphical design. Get rid of those and make cooking compulsory. People should know how to make rice, pasta and other basics by the time they are 16. They should know how to make tasty and healthy food for themselves. Those who want to do the other two can have it as an additional option. Cooking is an essential life skill in a way that woodwork or graphical design isn't.
    At the school I teach at it is a compulsory part of the Y7 and Y8 curriculum (as is DT). We don’t offer it higher up except as an optional extra, non exam activity. DT is done at GCSE but only by about 25% of the pupils.
    Ah it must have changed in the 17 years since I did them, honestly, I'd extend the school day to accommodate it. It is that important and sadly parents can no longer be trusted to pass these skills on to their children. In an ideal school day I'd have all the kids doing 90 mins of organised physical exercise as well with no allowance for doctor notes for the fat children.
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,606

    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:
    I assume he’s not going to get paid whilst he’s out there?

    Mr. Teacher, I do sympathise with teachers given the tendency for the political class to just hurl problems into the curriculum as things to be taught. That sort of government by headline is often not well-considered, and budgets are going to be constrained with the economic impact of the plague.

    Teaching basic cookery skills is very useful, but with all these things the question that needs to be asked is: instead of what?
    Do it as part of maths instead of boring shit like algebra and calculus.
    There is quite a bit of maths involved in cooking of course; cutting a pizza into seven equal pieces while ensuring that everyone gets their fair share of pineapple chunks is a non trivial task...
    x = number of slices that end up in the bin.
    x = 7.
    Then, having done algebra, arithmetic and distribution, what is the value of pie?
    The calorific value deals with physics and biochemistry, too.
    Who knows what one calorie is defined as without looking it up?
    The amount of energy required to heat one millilitre of water by 1 degree.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,108

    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:
    I assume he’s not going to get paid whilst he’s out there?

    Mr. Teacher, I do sympathise with teachers given the tendency for the political class to just hurl problems into the curriculum as things to be taught. That sort of government by headline is often not well-considered, and budgets are going to be constrained with the economic impact of the plague.

    Teaching basic cookery skills is very useful, but with all these things the question that needs to be asked is: instead of what?
    Do it as part of maths instead of boring shit like algebra and calculus.
    There is quite a bit of maths involved in cooking of course; cutting a pizza into seven equal pieces while ensuring that everyone gets their fair share of pineapple chunks is a non trivial task...
    x = number of slices that end up in the bin.
    x = 7.
    Then, having done algebra, arithmetic and distribution, what is the value of pie?
    The calorific value deals with physics and biochemistry, too.
    Who knows what one calorie is defined as without looking it up?
    Not nearly enough.
  • Options
    nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    HYUFD said:
    I assume he’s not going to get paid whilst he’s out there?

    Mr. Teacher, I do sympathise with teachers given the tendency for the political class to just hurl problems into the curriculum as things to be taught. That sort of government by headline is often not well-considered, and budgets are going to be constrained with the economic impact of the plague.

    Teaching basic cookery skills is very useful, but with all these things the question that needs to be asked is: instead of what?
    When I was in school we had to do one of woodwork or graphical design. Get rid of those and make cooking compulsory. People should know how to make rice, pasta and other basics by the time they are 16. They should know how to make tasty and healthy food for themselves. Those who want to do the other two can have it as an additional option. Cooking is an essential life skill in a way that woodwork or graphical design isn't.
    At the school I teach at it is a compulsory part of the Y7 and Y8 curriculum (as is DT). We don’t offer it higher up except as an optional extra, non exam activity. DT is done at GCSE but only by about 25% of the pupils.
    Ah it must have changed in the 17 years since I did them, honestly, I'd extend the school day to accommodate it. It is that important and sadly parents can no longer be trusted to pass these skills on to their children. In an ideal school day I'd have all the kids doing 90 mins of organised physical exercise as well with no allowance for doctor notes for the fat children.
    So you end up with thick fit people
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,584
    nichomar said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    HYUFD said:
    I assume he’s not going to get paid whilst he’s out there?

    Mr. Teacher, I do sympathise with teachers given the tendency for the political class to just hurl problems into the curriculum as things to be taught. That sort of government by headline is often not well-considered, and budgets are going to be constrained with the economic impact of the plague.

    Teaching basic cookery skills is very useful, but with all these things the question that needs to be asked is: instead of what?
    When I was in school we had to do one of woodwork or graphical design. Get rid of those and make cooking compulsory. People should know how to make rice, pasta and other basics by the time they are 16. They should know how to make tasty and healthy food for themselves. Those who want to do the other two can have it as an additional option. Cooking is an essential life skill in a way that woodwork or graphical design isn't.
    At the school I teach at it is a compulsory part of the Y7 and Y8 curriculum (as is DT). We don’t offer it higher up except as an optional extra, non exam activity. DT is done at GCSE but only by about 25% of the pupils.
    Ah it must have changed in the 17 years since I did them, honestly, I'd extend the school day to accommodate it. It is that important and sadly parents can no longer be trusted to pass these skills on to their children. In an ideal school day I'd have all the kids doing 90 mins of organised physical exercise as well with no allowance for doctor notes for the fat children.
    So you end up with thick fit people
    But the right kind of thickness.
  • Options
    StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    ydoethur said:

    I see that everyone is very animated by the Lib Dem leadership contest. The Lib Dems post-coalition have totally lost their spark. Hard to see what anyone can do about that. They are lucky there’s not PR, cos they’d likely be behind the Greens, as has happened in eg. Scotland, Germany and Sweden.

    They got nearly ten times as many votes in Scotland as the Greens at the last election.

    They also got more votes than the Greens in 2016, although they ended up with five seats rather than the Greens’ six.
    The Scottish Greens only put up 22 candidates in December, to the SLD’s 59. Factor in that the SLD’s got much more media coverage than the Greens (especially with their leader being a Scottish MP), that they poured cash into their five target seats, and that tons of Scottish Green supporters voted tactically for the SNP, and your stat looks far less impressive.

    On your second point, the Scottish Greens MSPs not only outnumber the SLD MSPs, they are also far more prominent and effective. In terms of bums on seats, prominence and influence, the Scottish Greens are definitely in 4th place, with the SLDs a distant 5th.

    https://greens.scot/westminster-candidates
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,606
    nichomar said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    HYUFD said:
    I assume he’s not going to get paid whilst he’s out there?

    Mr. Teacher, I do sympathise with teachers given the tendency for the political class to just hurl problems into the curriculum as things to be taught. That sort of government by headline is often not well-considered, and budgets are going to be constrained with the economic impact of the plague.

    Teaching basic cookery skills is very useful, but with all these things the question that needs to be asked is: instead of what?
    When I was in school we had to do one of woodwork or graphical design. Get rid of those and make cooking compulsory. People should know how to make rice, pasta and other basics by the time they are 16. They should know how to make tasty and healthy food for themselves. Those who want to do the other two can have it as an additional option. Cooking is an essential life skill in a way that woodwork or graphical design isn't.
    At the school I teach at it is a compulsory part of the Y7 and Y8 curriculum (as is DT). We don’t offer it higher up except as an optional extra, non exam activity. DT is done at GCSE but only by about 25% of the pupils.
    Ah it must have changed in the 17 years since I did them, honestly, I'd extend the school day to accommodate it. It is that important and sadly parents can no longer be trusted to pass these skills on to their children. In an ideal school day I'd have all the kids doing 90 mins of organised physical exercise as well with no allowance for doctor notes for the fat children.
    So you end up with thick fit people
    Tbh, we have thick fat people at the moment so it's an improvement.
  • Options
    Fysics_TeacherFysics_Teacher Posts: 6,060
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    HYUFD said:
    I assume he’s not going to get paid whilst he’s out there?

    Mr. Teacher, I do sympathise with teachers given the tendency for the political class to just hurl problems into the curriculum as things to be taught. That sort of government by headline is often not well-considered, and budgets are going to be constrained with the economic impact of the plague.

    Teaching basic cookery skills is very useful, but with all these things the question that needs to be asked is: instead of what?
    When I was in school we had to do one of woodwork or graphical design. Get rid of those and make cooking compulsory. People should know how to make rice, pasta and other basics by the time they are 16. They should know how to make tasty and healthy food for themselves. Those who want to do the other two can have it as an additional option. Cooking is an essential life skill in a way that woodwork or graphical design isn't.
    At the school I teach at it is a compulsory part of the Y7 and Y8 curriculum (as is DT). We don’t offer it higher up except as an optional extra, non exam activity. DT is done at GCSE but only by about 25% of the pupils.
    Ah it must have changed in the 17 years since I did them, honestly, I'd extend the school day to accommodate it. It is that important and sadly parents can no longer be trusted to pass these skills on to their children. In an ideal school day I'd have all the kids doing 90 mins of organised physical exercise as well with no allowance for doctor notes for the fat children.
    The only schools that can do that are in the independent sector, or at least those schools with boarders. Again the problem is where, and now you have to add who is going to supervise it? Making every teacher in a school spend some time each day supervising games lessons can be done (and that is how most independent schools do it) but it would cost a fortune.

    One way of doing it might be by abolishing homework I suppose, but that still leaves the problem that most schools do not have the sporting facilities and/or changing rooms to have hundreds of pupils doing games or PE at the same time.
  • Options
    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,077
    Carnyx said:

    nichomar said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    HYUFD said:
    I assume he’s not going to get paid whilst he’s out there?

    Mr. Teacher, I do sympathise with teachers given the tendency for the political class to just hurl problems into the curriculum as things to be taught. That sort of government by headline is often not well-considered, and budgets are going to be constrained with the economic impact of the plague.

    Teaching basic cookery skills is very useful, but with all these things the question that needs to be asked is: instead of what?
    When I was in school we had to do one of woodwork or graphical design. Get rid of those and make cooking compulsory. People should know how to make rice, pasta and other basics by the time they are 16. They should know how to make tasty and healthy food for themselves. Those who want to do the other two can have it as an additional option. Cooking is an essential life skill in a way that woodwork or graphical design isn't.
    At the school I teach at it is a compulsory part of the Y7 and Y8 curriculum (as is DT). We don’t offer it higher up except as an optional extra, non exam activity. DT is done at GCSE but only by about 25% of the pupils.
    Ah it must have changed in the 17 years since I did them, honestly, I'd extend the school day to accommodate it. It is that important and sadly parents can no longer be trusted to pass these skills on to their children. In an ideal school day I'd have all the kids doing 90 mins of organised physical exercise as well with no allowance for doctor notes for the fat children.
    So you end up with thick fit people
    But the right kind of thickness.
    I believe the correct parlance is “thicc”.
This discussion has been closed.