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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Polling Analysis: Johnson approval ratings are markedly better

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  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:
    I assume he’s not going to get paid whilst he’s out there?

    Mr. Teacher, I do sympathise with teachers given the tendency for the political class to just hurl problems into the curriculum as things to be taught. That sort of government by headline is often not well-considered, and budgets are going to be constrained with the economic impact of the plague.

    Teaching basic cookery skills is very useful, but with all these things the question that needs to be asked is: instead of what?
    Do it as part of maths instead of boring shit like algebra and calculus.
    There is quite a bit of maths involved in cooking of course; cutting a pizza into seven equal pieces while ensuring that everyone gets their fair share of pineapple chunks is a non trivial task...
    x = number of slices that end up in the bin.
    x = 7.
    Then, having done algebra, arithmetic and distribution, what is the value of pie?
    The calorific value deals with physics and biochemistry, too.
    Who knows what one calorie is defined as without looking it up?
    Not nearly enough.
    Miles Kington (I think) suggested that a unit of alcohol is a measure of volume, equating to one kitchen unit.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,625
    NHS Hospital numbers out

    Headline - 10
    7 days - 6
    Yesterday - 0

    image
    image
    image
    image
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    On topic: aren't voters in the 2019 Tory gains more invested in "Boris" than the Tory party? So perhaps it's not surprising: given structural antipathy to the Tories in many of these areas, it was only seats where Johnson himself was particularly popular that the Tory candidate won. In traditional Tory seats, by contrast, "Boris" was likely less important as a selling point. A corollary of this is that replacing Johnson mid-term in an effort to bolster Tory support may have the opposite effect in some of these seats. I have a gut feeling that Sunak may be less popular in these seats than in the traditional Tory home counties, but it'd be interesting to see polling on that.
    There's also the Brexit factor at work, although I imagine that will fade as an issue over time, especially if it turns out to be a bit shit, as seems likely.

    Indeed, according to Redfield 2019 Tory voters prefer Boris to Starmer by more than they prefer Sunak to Starmer, only 2019 LD voters prefer Sunak to Starmer by more than they prefer Boris to Starmer and the latter are very posh London and Home Counties centred

    https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voting-intention-22-july/
    One very likely explanation for this is the similar psychological response to a change in buying behaviour, a kind of confirmation bias that is the opposite to buyers remorse. In other words, I have changed who I buy from, away from my traditional brand, and I need to keep telling myself it was the right decision, because part of me tells me it was not. "I DID make the right decision! I DID" The person will look for those reasons why they should convince themselves it was the correct decision. Clever brands will keep marketing to such folk to keep them on board. In political terms Tony Blair was the most recent to achieve this, and before him Margaret Thatcher.

    As I have said many times before, Johnson is no Tony Blair, and he is definitely no Margaret Thatcher. This effect will doubtless melt away long before another GE.
    That explanation doesn't explain why they "bought from him" in the first place.

    There's no swing in these number. The logical thought surely is that the voters in these seats like him . . . because they like him . . . and that's why they voted for him in the first place. Not that they voted for him then decided they like him, because they voted for him.
    You and Nigel are both right. They voted for Johnson because they like him and they say they still like him. The latter could be for one of two reasons. (i) It's too early to have realized the mistake. (ii) They have realized their mistake but are not yet ready to admit it. All the Red Wallers are probably in one or the other camp. We can postulate that a (iii) category - realized the mistake AND saying so - is virtually empty right now. It must be otherwise it would be showing up in the data.

    The key question here - which we can't answer - is what is the split between (i) and (ii). Heavily (i) means good news for the Cons. Their strategy is predicated on the Red Wall still being in a (i) state by the time of the next election - because if these voters have not clocked their mistake by then the chances are they will repeat it. But if (as I hope) there are lots in (ii), Labour are set fair. Why? Because from (ii) it's only a matter of time before they take the decisive step to (iii) - which will duly show up in the polls and more importantly at the ballot box.
    Odd that you don't have category (iv) they haven't made a mistake.

    Anyway Nigel is disagreeing with that, he postulates despite the evidence to the contrary that people voted just because they disliked Corbyn and they never liked Johnson in the first place. Despite the polls saying the opposite.
    There's no need for a category (iv) because in terms of impact it's the same as (i). There is no electoral difference between a Red Waller voting Tory not realizing they are being conned and one who does so positively in the knowledge of being conned - i.e. has not really been conned at all.

    I happen to disagree with Nigel on the 2nd point. I think Johnson is a genuine asset when it comes to elections and I fear this will continue to be the case.
    Again, if they're not being conned?

    If you want to understand voters, maybe start with a thought that they and what they are voting for might be genuine and not "a mistake" or "being conned".
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,072
    I see Israel and Hezbollah are shooting at each other again.
  • Fysics_TeacherFysics_Teacher Posts: 6,060
    edited July 2020
    MaxPB said:

    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:
    I assume he’s not going to get paid whilst he’s out there?

    Mr. Teacher, I do sympathise with teachers given the tendency for the political class to just hurl problems into the curriculum as things to be taught. That sort of government by headline is often not well-considered, and budgets are going to be constrained with the economic impact of the plague.

    Teaching basic cookery skills is very useful, but with all these things the question that needs to be asked is: instead of what?
    Do it as part of maths instead of boring shit like algebra and calculus.
    There is quite a bit of maths involved in cooking of course; cutting a pizza into seven equal pieces while ensuring that everyone gets their fair share of pineapple chunks is a non trivial task...
    x = number of slices that end up in the bin.
    x = 7.
    Then, having done algebra, arithmetic and distribution, what is the value of pie?
    The calorific value deals with physics and biochemistry, too.
    Who knows what one calorie is defined as without looking it up?
    The amount of energy required to heat one millilitre of water by 1 degree.
    Close enough. It’s one gram, but as that was originally defined as the mass of one ml of water at 4 degrees C it’s essentialy the same thing.

    It also depends on the temperature of the water, but I would have to look that bit up myself.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    I see Israel and Hezbollah are shooting at each other again.

    About as shocking as saying it is raining in Manchester . . .
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,069
    Scott_xP said:
    Spanish Bombs as a holiday destination?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    HYUFD said:
    I assume he’s not going to get paid whilst he’s out there?

    Mr. Teacher, I do sympathise with teachers given the tendency for the political class to just hurl problems into the curriculum as things to be taught. That sort of government by headline is often not well-considered, and budgets are going to be constrained with the economic impact of the plague.

    Teaching basic cookery skills is very useful, but with all these things the question that needs to be asked is: instead of what?
    When I was in school we had to do one of woodwork or graphical design. Get rid of those and make cooking compulsory. People should know how to make rice, pasta and other basics by the time they are 16. They should know how to make tasty and healthy food for themselves. Those who want to do the other two can have it as an additional option. Cooking is an essential life skill in a way that woodwork or graphical design isn't.
    At the school I teach at it is a compulsory part of the Y7 and Y8 curriculum (as is DT). We don’t offer it higher up except as an optional extra, non exam activity. DT is done at GCSE but only by about 25% of the pupils.
    Ah it must have changed in the 17 years since I did them, honestly, I'd extend the school day to accommodate it. It is that important and sadly parents can no longer be trusted to pass these skills on to their children. In an ideal school day I'd have all the kids doing 90 mins of organised physical exercise as well with no allowance for doctor notes for the fat children.
    The only schools that can do that are in the independent sector, or at least those schools with boarders. Again the problem is where, and now you have to add who is going to supervise it? Making every teacher in a school spend some time each day supervising games lessons can be done (and that is how most independent schools do it) but it would cost a fortune.

    One way of doing it might be by abolishing homework I suppose, but that still leaves the problem that most schools do not have the sporting facilities and/or changing rooms to have hundreds of pupils doing games or PE at the same time.
    Oh I'm not saying it's feasible today but I think it should be a long term goal for any government to get schools in a position where they could do this, if that means additional funding or renting of facilities from local private schools or schools that have playing fields and equipment. If we're going to be serious about tackling obesity it starts during childhood any other strategy won't work.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,969
    WSJ News Exclusive: Google will keep its employees home until July 2021, people familiar with the matter said, making it the first major U.S. corporation to formalize such an extended timetable in the face of the coronavirus pandemic.

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/google-to-keep-employees-home-until-summer-2021-amid-coronavirus-pandemic-11595854201
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,575
    Tentative evidence for the efficacy of tocilizumab.

    COVIDOSE: Low-dose tocilizumab in the treatment of Covid-19
    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.20.20157503v1

    Needs randomised clinical trials, but I think some may already be ongoing.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    IshmaelZ said:

    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:
    I assume he’s not going to get paid whilst he’s out there?

    Mr. Teacher, I do sympathise with teachers given the tendency for the political class to just hurl problems into the curriculum as things to be taught. That sort of government by headline is often not well-considered, and budgets are going to be constrained with the economic impact of the plague.

    Teaching basic cookery skills is very useful, but with all these things the question that needs to be asked is: instead of what?
    Do it as part of maths instead of boring shit like algebra and calculus.
    There is quite a bit of maths involved in cooking of course; cutting a pizza into seven equal pieces while ensuring that everyone gets their fair share of pineapple chunks is a non trivial task...
    x = number of slices that end up in the bin.
    x = 7.
    Then, having done algebra, arithmetic and distribution, what is the value of pie?
    The calorific value deals with physics and biochemistry, too.
    Who knows what one calorie is defined as without looking it up?
    Not nearly enough.
    Miles Kington (I think) suggested that a unit of alcohol is a measure of volume, equating to one kitchen unit.
    Miles Kington's masterpiece was, for me, his motto for the French Navy:

    "A l'eau, c'est l'heure".
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    TimT said:

    HYUFD said:

    US.

    “There is open talk – not internet crazy talk – of there being some kind of civil war.”

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2020/07/27/trump-may-lose-election-american-culture-war-will-continue-rage/

    I foresee a 269-269 result as very plausible, the first EC tie since 1800 as per this map
    https://www.270towin.com/

    Such a result would fully reflect the fact the US is literally split down the middle on the culture war
    Talking bullshit again, as per usual when it comes to the US.
    We will see in November
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,084
    OT, this is a reasonably worthwhile long read for any PB’er who isn’t so busy not to have ten minutes to spare. Which I’d suggest is all of you.

    https://unherd.com/2020/07/has-lockdown-broken-old-habits-for-good/?tl_inbound=1&tl_groups[0]=18743&tl_period_type=3
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    HYUFD said:
    I know people who are keen not to lose the positive impact, such as increase in volunteering and community spirit
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,718

    I see Israel and Hezbollah are shooting at each other again.

    About as shocking as saying it is raining in Manchester . . .
    And it has in fact just started again. The rain in Manchester, I mean. According to Cricinfo.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    MaxPB said:

    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:
    I assume he’s not going to get paid whilst he’s out there?

    Mr. Teacher, I do sympathise with teachers given the tendency for the political class to just hurl problems into the curriculum as things to be taught. That sort of government by headline is often not well-considered, and budgets are going to be constrained with the economic impact of the plague.

    Teaching basic cookery skills is very useful, but with all these things the question that needs to be asked is: instead of what?
    Do it as part of maths instead of boring shit like algebra and calculus.
    There is quite a bit of maths involved in cooking of course; cutting a pizza into seven equal pieces while ensuring that everyone gets their fair share of pineapple chunks is a non trivial task...
    x = number of slices that end up in the bin.
    x = 7.
    Then, having done algebra, arithmetic and distribution, what is the value of pie?
    The calorific value deals with physics and biochemistry, too.
    Who knows what one calorie is defined as without looking it up?
    The amount of energy required to heat one millilitre of water by 1 degree.
    I have never heard that in my life before.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,149

    Carnyx said:

    nichomar said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    HYUFD said:
    I assume he’s not going to get paid whilst he’s out there?

    Mr. Teacher, I do sympathise with teachers given the tendency for the political class to just hurl problems into the curriculum as things to be taught. That sort of government by headline is often not well-considered, and budgets are going to be constrained with the economic impact of the plague.

    Teaching basic cookery skills is very useful, but with all these things the question that needs to be asked is: instead of what?
    When I was in school we had to do one of woodwork or graphical design. Get rid of those and make cooking compulsory. People should know how to make rice, pasta and other basics by the time they are 16. They should know how to make tasty and healthy food for themselves. Those who want to do the other two can have it as an additional option. Cooking is an essential life skill in a way that woodwork or graphical design isn't.
    At the school I teach at it is a compulsory part of the Y7 and Y8 curriculum (as is DT). We don’t offer it higher up except as an optional extra, non exam activity. DT is done at GCSE but only by about 25% of the pupils.
    Ah it must have changed in the 17 years since I did them, honestly, I'd extend the school day to accommodate it. It is that important and sadly parents can no longer be trusted to pass these skills on to their children. In an ideal school day I'd have all the kids doing 90 mins of organised physical exercise as well with no allowance for doctor notes for the fat children.
    So you end up with thick fit people
    But the right kind of thickness.
    I believe the correct parlance is “thicc”.
    Oh, indeed? *Checks on the net* One learns something (or more) every day on PB. Thank you.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    MaxPB said:

    5% swing wipes out the Tory majority and creates a mess of a Parliament.

    5% is a big swing though, that implies a result of 39 Con/38 Lab. One would expect that the Tory majority would be gone.
    But it merely reverses the 2019 swing.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,575
    Very low levels of positive tests for Covid antibodies in Tokyo.
    Not the largest of studies (742 individuals, semi-randomly selected), but only three positive tests.

    Seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 IgG Antibodies in Utsunomiya City, Greater Tokyo, after first pandemic in 2020 (U-CORONA): a household- and population-based study
    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.20.20155945v1
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    Foxy said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Spanish Bombs as a holiday destination?
    You’d be brave to go anywhere out of the UK for a holiday.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,149

    ydoethur said:

    I see that everyone is very animated by the Lib Dem leadership contest. The Lib Dems post-coalition have totally lost their spark. Hard to see what anyone can do about that. They are lucky there’s not PR, cos they’d likely be behind the Greens, as has happened in eg. Scotland, Germany and Sweden.

    They got nearly ten times as many votes in Scotland as the Greens at the last election.

    They also got more votes than the Greens in 2016, although they ended up with five seats rather than the Greens’ six.
    The Scottish Greens only put up 22 candidates in December, to the SLD’s 59. Factor in that the SLD’s got much more media coverage than the Greens (especially with their leader being a Scottish MP), that they poured cash into their five target seats, and that tons of Scottish Green supporters voted tactically for the SNP, and your stat looks far less impressive.

    On your second point, the Scottish Greens MSPs not only outnumber the SLD MSPs, they are also far more prominent and effective. In terms of bums on seats, prominence and influence, the Scottish Greens are definitely in 4th place, with the SLDs a distant 5th.

    https://greens.scot/westminster-candidates
    Didn't the LDs import money into Scotland for that purpose?

    When their elected representatives end up in court, also, the Greens tend to be on the good guys side, if recent court cases are any indication.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603
    nichomar said:

    Foxy said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Spanish Bombs as a holiday destination?
    You’d be brave to go anywhere out of the UK for a holiday.
    I've got Sicily and Naples booked for August and September respectively. It's not that risky if you can WFH indefinitely. My wife and I were thinking about getting a two or three month lease in Sicily and working remotely from there for a while.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,575
    Systematic evaluation and external validation of 22 prognostic models among hospitalised adults with COVID-19: An observational cohort study

    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.24.20149815v1
    ... In univariable analyses, admission oxygen saturation on room air was the strongest predictor of in-hospital deterioration (AUROC 0.76; 0.71-0.81), while age was the strongest predictor of in-hospital mortality (AUROC 0.76; 0.71-0.81). No prognostic model demonstrated consistently higher net benefit than using the most discriminating univariable predictors to stratify treatment, across a range of threshold probabilities. Conclusions Oxygen saturation on room air and patient age are strong predictors of deterioration and mortality among hospitalised adults with COVID-19, respectively. None of the prognostic models evaluated offer incremental value for patient stratification to these univariable predictors...
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    IanB2 said:

    OT, this is a reasonably worthwhile long read for any PB’er who isn’t so busy not to have ten minutes to spare. Which I’d suggest is all of you.

    https://unherd.com/2020/07/has-lockdown-broken-old-habits-for-good/?tl_inbound=1&tl_groups[0]=18743&tl_period_type=3

    Ouch.

    I think we may be a bit quick to assume significant things and politics will be changed for good as a result of this year, but it's a persuasive point about 'interruptions' which allow change to occur.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    MaxPB said:

    nichomar said:

    Foxy said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Spanish Bombs as a holiday destination?
    You’d be brave to go anywhere out of the UK for a holiday.
    I've got Sicily and Naples booked for August and September respectively. It's not that risky if you can WFH indefinitely. My wife and I were thinking about getting a two or three month lease in Sicily and working remotely from there for a while.
    And I'm guessing that your wife and you are very non-high risk and as long as you don't come back and hug your grandparents at the airport then surely all is good.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 13,766

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    On topic: aren't voters in the 2019 Tory gains more invested in "Boris" than the Tory party? So perhaps it's not surprising: given structural antipathy to the Tories in many of these areas, it was only seats where Johnson himself was particularly popular that the Tory candidate won. In traditional Tory seats, by contrast, "Boris" was likely less important as a selling point. A corollary of this is that replacing Johnson mid-term in an effort to bolster Tory support may have the opposite effect in some of these seats. I have a gut feeling that Sunak may be less popular in these seats than in the traditional Tory home counties, but it'd be interesting to see polling on that.
    There's also the Brexit factor at work, although I imagine that will fade as an issue over time, especially if it turns out to be a bit shit, as seems likely.

    Indeed, according to Redfield 2019 Tory voters prefer Boris to Starmer by more than they prefer Sunak to Starmer, only 2019 LD voters prefer Sunak to Starmer by more than they prefer Boris to Starmer and the latter are very posh London and Home Counties centred

    https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voting-intention-22-july/
    One very likely explanation for this is the similar psychological response to a change in buying behaviour, a kind of confirmation bias that is the opposite to buyers remorse. In other words, I have changed who I buy from, away from my traditional brand, and I need to keep telling myself it was the right decision, because part of me tells me it was not. "I DID make the right decision! I DID" The person will look for those reasons why they should convince themselves it was the correct decision. Clever brands will keep marketing to such folk to keep them on board. In political terms Tony Blair was the most recent to achieve this, and before him Margaret Thatcher.

    As I have said many times before, Johnson is no Tony Blair, and he is definitely no Margaret Thatcher. This effect will doubtless melt away long before another GE.
    That explanation doesn't explain why they "bought from him" in the first place.

    There's no swing in these number. The logical thought surely is that the voters in these seats like him . . . because they like him . . . and that's why they voted for him in the first place. Not that they voted for him then decided they like him, because they voted for him.
    You and Nigel are both right. They voted for Johnson because they like him and they say they still like him. The latter could be for one of two reasons. (i) It's too early to have realized the mistake. (ii) They have realized their mistake but are not yet ready to admit it. All the Red Wallers are probably in one or the other camp. We can postulate that a (iii) category - realized the mistake AND saying so - is virtually empty right now. It must be otherwise it would be showing up in the data.

    The key question here - which we can't answer - is what is the split between (i) and (ii). Heavily (i) means good news for the Cons. Their strategy is predicated on the Red Wall still being in a (i) state by the time of the next election - because if these voters have not clocked their mistake by then the chances are they will repeat it. But if (as I hope) there are lots in (ii), Labour are set fair. Why? Because from (ii) it's only a matter of time before they take the decisive step to (iii) - which will duly show up in the polls and more importantly at the ballot box.
    Odd that you don't have category (iv) they haven't made a mistake.

    Anyway Nigel is disagreeing with that, he postulates despite the evidence to the contrary that people voted just because they disliked Corbyn and they never liked Johnson in the first place. Despite the polls saying the opposite.
    There's no need for a category (iv) because in terms of impact it's the same as (i). There is no electoral difference between a Red Waller voting Tory not realizing they are being conned and one who does so positively in the knowledge of being conned - i.e. has not really been conned at all.

    I happen to disagree with Nigel on the 2nd point. I think Johnson is a genuine asset when it comes to elections and I fear this will continue to be the case.
    Again, if they're not being conned?

    If you want to understand voters, maybe start with a thought that they and what they are voting for might be genuine and not "a mistake" or "being conned".
    Very laudable sentiment, but I will remind you that we are talking about Boris Johnson, a man who has spent his whole life lying to advance his ambition (and his male member), so if you don't think you have been conned, you probably have been well and truly. Besides, I believe there is strong evidence that people generally vote to keep one lot out in our FPTP system, and rarely vote because they think particularly positive about a set of politicians. It is like saying that choosing a particular estate agent to buy a house through is endorsing that company's values.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 8,480
    edited July 2020
    MaxPB said:

    nichomar said:

    Foxy said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Spanish Bombs as a holiday destination?
    You’d be brave to go anywhere out of the UK for a holiday.
    I've got Sicily and Naples booked for August and September respectively. It's not that risky if you can WFH indefinitely. My wife and I were thinking about getting a two or three month lease in Sicily and working remotely from there for a while.
    Without wanting to sound like an advert, there are great prices available all over Europe at the moment.

    The fairly upscale house we stayed in in the Dodecanese islands the other year seems to have halved its prices.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    TOPPING said:

    MaxPB said:

    nichomar said:

    Foxy said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Spanish Bombs as a holiday destination?
    You’d be brave to go anywhere out of the UK for a holiday.
    I've got Sicily and Naples booked for August and September respectively. It's not that risky if you can WFH indefinitely. My wife and I were thinking about getting a two or three month lease in Sicily and working remotely from there for a while.
    And I'm guessing that your wife and you are very non-high risk and as long as you don't come back and hug your grandparents at the airport then surely all is good.
    By brave I wasn’t referring to the risk of contacting the virus which I think is low in most of Western Europe. It’s what happens when you get back and find you have no income. As Ian said this morning the plane is the biggest risk.
  • BannedinnParisBannedinnParis Posts: 1,884
    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:
    I know people who are keen not to lose the positive impact, such as increase in volunteering and community spirit
    Massively better off here. Busy, sure, and certain aspects of my job have had to be put on the shelf.

    But ...

    spent less
    moved more
    eaten better
    lost weight
    worked harder - got a mention in dispatches (and vouchers) for my efforts in keeping the department ticking over
    since the first few relaxation steps, spent more time with mates, not less
    chipped in with the volunteering

    must have missed something .. .?
  • Fysics_TeacherFysics_Teacher Posts: 6,060
    TOPPING said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:
    I assume he’s not going to get paid whilst he’s out there?

    Mr. Teacher, I do sympathise with teachers given the tendency for the political class to just hurl problems into the curriculum as things to be taught. That sort of government by headline is often not well-considered, and budgets are going to be constrained with the economic impact of the plague.

    Teaching basic cookery skills is very useful, but with all these things the question that needs to be asked is: instead of what?
    Do it as part of maths instead of boring shit like algebra and calculus.
    There is quite a bit of maths involved in cooking of course; cutting a pizza into seven equal pieces while ensuring that everyone gets their fair share of pineapple chunks is a non trivial task...
    x = number of slices that end up in the bin.
    x = 7.
    Then, having done algebra, arithmetic and distribution, what is the value of pie?
    The calorific value deals with physics and biochemistry, too.
    Who knows what one calorie is defined as without looking it up?
    Not nearly enough.
    Miles Kington (I think) suggested that a unit of alcohol is a measure of volume, equating to one kitchen unit.
    Miles Kington's masterpiece was, for me, his motto for the French Navy:

    "A l'eau, c'est l'heure".
    That reminds me of a chant I heard at a rugby match: “you’re French; and you know you are” (to the tune “Go West”)
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603
    TOPPING said:

    MaxPB said:

    nichomar said:

    Foxy said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Spanish Bombs as a holiday destination?
    You’d be brave to go anywhere out of the UK for a holiday.
    I've got Sicily and Naples booked for August and September respectively. It's not that risky if you can WFH indefinitely. My wife and I were thinking about getting a two or three month lease in Sicily and working remotely from there for a while.
    And I'm guessing that your wife and you are very non-high risk and as long as you don't come back and hug your grandparents at the airport then surely all is good.
    Yes, and no grandparents to hug for either of us for a few years now. We also live in our own place and can easily isolate for 14 days and continue our WFH without any trouble.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 14,912

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:
    I assume he’s not going to get paid whilst he’s out there?

    Mr. Teacher, I do sympathise with teachers given the tendency for the political class to just hurl problems into the curriculum as things to be taught. That sort of government by headline is often not well-considered, and budgets are going to be constrained with the economic impact of the plague.

    Teaching basic cookery skills is very useful, but with all these things the question that needs to be asked is: instead of what?
    Do it as part of maths instead of boring shit like algebra and calculus.
    There is quite a bit of maths involved in cooking of course; cutting a pizza into seven equal pieces while ensuring that everyone gets their fair share of pineapple chunks is a non trivial task...
    Pineapple on a pizza is great, but anyone who cuts a pizza into an odd number of slices is not to be trusted . . .
    So what would you do if you had seven people? Cut it into 14 slices, two each?
    There is no situation involving pizzas and sharing where cutting each pizza into eight pieces doesn't work. People eat different amounts, some like one pizza more than another, they will figure it out.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    edited July 2020
    kle4 said:

    IanB2 said:

    OT, this is a reasonably worthwhile long read for any PB’er who isn’t so busy not to have ten minutes to spare. Which I’d suggest is all of you.

    https://unherd.com/2020/07/has-lockdown-broken-old-habits-for-good/?tl_inbound=1&tl_groups[0]=18743&tl_period_type=3

    Ouch.

    I think we may be a bit quick to assume significant things and politics will be changed for good as a result of this year, but it's a persuasive point about 'interruptions' which allow change to occur.
    I would suggest that in this case the 'interruption' is as much the government's response to COVID as COVID itself, given that the disease is far, far less harmful to the general population than the pandemic of 1920, and the tools for fighting it more powerful.

    COVID alone has not broken old habits as much as those habits have been outlawed or restricted by government fiat.

    No British government in modern history has ever ordered swathes of its economy to shut down or placed all of its healthy citizens under house arrest. Ever. Or imposed so many obstacles to the reopening of business or the ending of that house arrest

    And later this year we shall see why, in my view.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603
    nichomar said:

    TOPPING said:

    MaxPB said:

    nichomar said:

    Foxy said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Spanish Bombs as a holiday destination?
    You’d be brave to go anywhere out of the UK for a holiday.
    I've got Sicily and Naples booked for August and September respectively. It's not that risky if you can WFH indefinitely. My wife and I were thinking about getting a two or three month lease in Sicily and working remotely from there for a while.
    And I'm guessing that your wife and you are very non-high risk and as long as you don't come back and hug your grandparents at the airport then surely all is good.
    By brave I wasn’t referring to the risk of contacting the virus which I think is low in most of Western Europe. It’s what happens when you get back and find you have no income. As Ian said this morning the plane is the biggest risk.
    Eh? What do you mean by no income? For WFHers it's a no change scenario being quarantined or not. Obviously of your job requires in person attendance then it's a different story and yes, I think I wouldn't consider going overseas in that scenario.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    MaxPB said:

    nichomar said:

    TOPPING said:

    MaxPB said:

    nichomar said:

    Foxy said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Spanish Bombs as a holiday destination?
    You’d be brave to go anywhere out of the UK for a holiday.
    I've got Sicily and Naples booked for August and September respectively. It's not that risky if you can WFH indefinitely. My wife and I were thinking about getting a two or three month lease in Sicily and working remotely from there for a while.
    And I'm guessing that your wife and you are very non-high risk and as long as you don't come back and hug your grandparents at the airport then surely all is good.
    By brave I wasn’t referring to the risk of contacting the virus which I think is low in most of Western Europe. It’s what happens when you get back and find you have no income. As Ian said this morning the plane is the biggest risk.
    Eh? What do you mean by no income? For WFHers it's a no change scenario being quarantined or not. Obviously of your job requires in person attendance then it's a different story and yes, I think I wouldn't consider going overseas in that scenario.
    That’s what I meant having read the article
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 14,912
    HYUFD said:
    Tory and Leave voters in failing to give a shit about ethnic minorities or key workers shocker.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,921
    TOPPING said:

    MaxPB said:

    nichomar said:

    Foxy said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Spanish Bombs as a holiday destination?
    You’d be brave to go anywhere out of the UK for a holiday.
    I've got Sicily and Naples booked for August and September respectively. It's not that risky if you can WFH indefinitely. My wife and I were thinking about getting a two or three month lease in Sicily and working remotely from there for a while.
    And I'm guessing that your wife and you are very non-high risk and as long as you don't come back and hug your grandparents at the airport then surely all is good.
    Interesting article in the Times over the weekend - can't remember which day - Companies are petrified about staff doing this as it might incur Corp tax liabilities.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603
    Mortimer said:

    TOPPING said:

    MaxPB said:

    nichomar said:

    Foxy said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Spanish Bombs as a holiday destination?
    You’d be brave to go anywhere out of the UK for a holiday.
    I've got Sicily and Naples booked for August and September respectively. It's not that risky if you can WFH indefinitely. My wife and I were thinking about getting a two or three month lease in Sicily and working remotely from there for a while.
    And I'm guessing that your wife and you are very non-high risk and as long as you don't come back and hug your grandparents at the airport then surely all is good.
    Interesting article in the Times over the weekend - can't remember which day - Companies are petrified about staff doing this as it might incur Corp tax liabilities.
    That's why we didn't, I was advised not to work from another country until the legal team have figured out what it means for corporate and personal tax liability as I'd be conducting business from Italy.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    On topic: aren't voters in the 2019 Tory gains more invested in "Boris" than the Tory party? So perhaps it's not surprising: given structural antipathy to the Tories in many of these areas, it was only seats where Johnson himself was particularly popular that the Tory candidate won. In traditional Tory seats, by contrast, "Boris" was likely less important as a selling point. A corollary of this is that replacing Johnson mid-term in an effort to bolster Tory support may have the opposite effect in some of these seats. I have a gut feeling that Sunak may be less popular in these seats than in the traditional Tory home counties, but it'd be interesting to see polling on that.
    There's also the Brexit factor at work, although I imagine that will fade as an issue over time, especially if it turns out to be a bit shit, as seems likely.

    Indeed, according to Redfield 2019 Tory voters prefer Boris to Starmer by more than they prefer Sunak to Starmer, only 2019 LD voters prefer Sunak to Starmer by more than they prefer Boris to Starmer and the latter are very posh London and Home Counties centred

    https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voting-intention-22-july/
    One very likely explanation for this is the similar psychological response to a change in buying behaviour, a kind of confirmation bias that is the opposite to buyers remorse. In other words, I have changed who I buy from, away from my traditional brand, and I need to keep telling myself it was the right decision, because part of me tells me it was not. "I DID make the right decision! I DID" The person will look for those reasons why they should convince themselves it was the correct decision. Clever brands will keep marketing to such folk to keep them on board. In political terms Tony Blair was the most recent to achieve this, and before him Margaret Thatcher.

    As I have said many times before, Johnson is no Tony Blair, and he is definitely no Margaret Thatcher. This effect will doubtless melt away long before another GE.
    That explanation doesn't explain why they "bought from him" in the first place.

    There's no swing in these number. The logical thought surely is that the voters in these seats like him . . . because they like him . . . and that's why they voted for him in the first place. Not that they voted for him then decided they like him, because they voted for him.
    You and Nigel are both right. They voted for Johnson because they like him and they say they still like him. The latter could be for one of two reasons. (i) It's too early to have realized the mistake. (ii) They have realized their mistake but are not yet ready to admit it. All the Red Wallers are probably in one or the other camp. We can postulate that a (iii) category - realized the mistake AND saying so - is virtually empty right now. It must be otherwise it would be showing up in the data.

    The key question here - which we can't answer - is what is the split between (i) and (ii). Heavily (i) means good news for the Cons. Their strategy is predicated on the Red Wall still being in a (i) state by the time of the next election - because if these voters have not clocked their mistake by then the chances are they will repeat it. But if (as I hope) there are lots in (ii), Labour are set fair. Why? Because from (ii) it's only a matter of time before they take the decisive step to (iii) - which will duly show up in the polls and more importantly at the ballot box.
    Odd that you don't have category (iv) they haven't made a mistake.

    Anyway Nigel is disagreeing with that, he postulates despite the evidence to the contrary that people voted just because they disliked Corbyn and they never liked Johnson in the first place. Despite the polls saying the opposite.
    There's no need for a category (iv) because in terms of impact it's the same as (i). There is no electoral difference between a Red Waller voting Tory not realizing they are being conned and one who does so positively in the knowledge of being conned - i.e. has not really been conned at all.

    I happen to disagree with Nigel on the 2nd point. I think Johnson is a genuine asset when it comes to elections and I fear this will continue to be the case.
    Overall such voters are probably less educated and quite limited in insight. Over time,though, the reality of Johnson being an utter shyster will percolate through to them - though some will continue to feel affection for him in the way that many Eastenders admired the Kray twins. The London dockers marching to support Enoch Powell in 1968 following his 'rivers of blood' speech also comes to mind.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    Scott_xP said:
    I assume they said the same about the smoking ad ban?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:
    I assume he’s not going to get paid whilst he’s out there?

    Mr. Teacher, I do sympathise with teachers given the tendency for the political class to just hurl problems into the curriculum as things to be taught. That sort of government by headline is often not well-considered, and budgets are going to be constrained with the economic impact of the plague.

    Teaching basic cookery skills is very useful, but with all these things the question that needs to be asked is: instead of what?
    Do it as part of maths instead of boring shit like algebra and calculus.
    There is quite a bit of maths involved in cooking of course; cutting a pizza into seven equal pieces while ensuring that everyone gets their fair share of pineapple chunks is a non trivial task...
    Pineapple on a pizza is great, but anyone who cuts a pizza into an odd number of slices is not to be trusted . . .
    So what would you do if you had seven people? Cut it into 14 slices, two each?
    There is no situation involving pizzas and sharing where cutting each pizza into eight pieces doesn't work. People eat different amounts, some like one pizza more than another, they will figure it out.
    What I'm not quite working out is why on earth anyone would order pizza and then not have the whole pizza? Maybe leave one slice if you reach a standstill? What's all this if you have seven people cut your pizza into 14?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    MaxPB said:

    nichomar said:

    TOPPING said:

    MaxPB said:

    nichomar said:

    Foxy said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Spanish Bombs as a holiday destination?
    You’d be brave to go anywhere out of the UK for a holiday.
    I've got Sicily and Naples booked for August and September respectively. It's not that risky if you can WFH indefinitely. My wife and I were thinking about getting a two or three month lease in Sicily and working remotely from there for a while.
    And I'm guessing that your wife and you are very non-high risk and as long as you don't come back and hug your grandparents at the airport then surely all is good.
    By brave I wasn’t referring to the risk of contacting the virus which I think is low in most of Western Europe. It’s what happens when you get back and find you have no income. As Ian said this morning the plane is the biggest risk.
    Eh? What do you mean by no income? For WFHers it's a no change scenario being quarantined or not. Obviously of your job requires in person attendance then it's a different story and yes, I think I wouldn't consider going overseas in that scenario.
    Although isn't Sicily a failure of imagination? What about Barbados?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603
    edited July 2020
    TOPPING said:

    MaxPB said:

    nichomar said:

    TOPPING said:

    MaxPB said:

    nichomar said:

    Foxy said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Spanish Bombs as a holiday destination?
    You’d be brave to go anywhere out of the UK for a holiday.
    I've got Sicily and Naples booked for August and September respectively. It's not that risky if you can WFH indefinitely. My wife and I were thinking about getting a two or three month lease in Sicily and working remotely from there for a while.
    And I'm guessing that your wife and you are very non-high risk and as long as you don't come back and hug your grandparents at the airport then surely all is good.
    By brave I wasn’t referring to the risk of contacting the virus which I think is low in most of Western Europe. It’s what happens when you get back and find you have no income. As Ian said this morning the plane is the biggest risk.
    Eh? What do you mean by no income? For WFHers it's a no change scenario being quarantined or not. Obviously of your job requires in person attendance then it's a different story and yes, I think I wouldn't consider going overseas in that scenario.
    Although isn't Sicily a failure of imagination? What about Barbados?
    Not in the slightest, Sicily has it all. Amazing beaches, great food, lovely accomodation and incredible wine. It's probably my favourite place to go in the world.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,387
    MaxPB said:

    Mortimer said:

    TOPPING said:

    MaxPB said:

    nichomar said:

    Foxy said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Spanish Bombs as a holiday destination?
    You’d be brave to go anywhere out of the UK for a holiday.
    I've got Sicily and Naples booked for August and September respectively. It's not that risky if you can WFH indefinitely. My wife and I were thinking about getting a two or three month lease in Sicily and working remotely from there for a while.
    And I'm guessing that your wife and you are very non-high risk and as long as you don't come back and hug your grandparents at the airport then surely all is good.
    Interesting article in the Times over the weekend - can't remember which day - Companies are petrified about staff doing this as it might incur Corp tax liabilities.
    That's why we didn't, I was advised not to work from another country until the legal team have figured out what it means for corporate and personal tax liability as I'd be conducting business from Italy.
    I don't think this is a corporation tax problem for big businesses. If you are a sole contractor, however... plus your own income tax risk of course.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,149
    nichomar said:

    MaxPB said:

    nichomar said:

    TOPPING said:

    MaxPB said:

    nichomar said:

    Foxy said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Spanish Bombs as a holiday destination?
    You’d be brave to go anywhere out of the UK for a holiday.
    I've got Sicily and Naples booked for August and September respectively. It's not that risky if you can WFH indefinitely. My wife and I were thinking about getting a two or three month lease in Sicily and working remotely from there for a while.
    And I'm guessing that your wife and you are very non-high risk and as long as you don't come back and hug your grandparents at the airport then surely all is good.
    By brave I wasn’t referring to the risk of contacting the virus which I think is low in most of Western Europe. It’s what happens when you get back and find you have no income. As Ian said this morning the plane is the biggest risk.
    Eh? What do you mean by no income? For WFHers it's a no change scenario being quarantined or not. Obviously of your job requires in person attendance then it's a different story and yes, I think I wouldn't consider going overseas in that scenario.
    That’s what I meant having read the article
    That does rather assume the borders aren't closed (or the airlines, etc. don't shut down).
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,625
    RobD said:

    Scott_xP said:
    I assume they said the same about the smoking ad ban?
    PJ O'Rourke pointed out that banning 10 years working in mines caused instant mass unemployment among 10 year olds.

    It did however leave them free to pursue other goals. Such as living to be 11.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    RobD said:

    Scott_xP said:
    I assume they said the same about the smoking ad ban?
    Advertisers don't want restrictions on advertising shocker.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    edited July 2020
    TOPPING said:

    MaxPB said:

    nichomar said:

    TOPPING said:

    MaxPB said:

    nichomar said:

    Foxy said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Spanish Bombs as a holiday destination?
    You’d be brave to go anywhere out of the UK for a holiday.
    I've got Sicily and Naples booked for August and September respectively. It's not that risky if you can WFH indefinitely. My wife and I were thinking about getting a two or three month lease in Sicily and working remotely from there for a while.
    And I'm guessing that your wife and you are very non-high risk and as long as you don't come back and hug your grandparents at the airport then surely all is good.
    By brave I wasn’t referring to the risk of contacting the virus which I think is low in most of Western Europe. It’s what happens when you get back and find you have no income. As Ian said this morning the plane is the biggest risk.
    Eh? What do you mean by no income? For WFHers it's a no change scenario being quarantined or not. Obviously of your job requires in person attendance then it's a different story and yes, I think I wouldn't consider going overseas in that scenario.
    Although isn't Sicily a failure of imagination? What about Barbados?
    I read Barbados was mulling one year work visas for remote workers to make up for tourism losses.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950

    TOPPING said:

    MaxPB said:

    nichomar said:

    TOPPING said:

    MaxPB said:

    nichomar said:

    Foxy said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Spanish Bombs as a holiday destination?
    You’d be brave to go anywhere out of the UK for a holiday.
    I've got Sicily and Naples booked for August and September respectively. It's not that risky if you can WFH indefinitely. My wife and I were thinking about getting a two or three month lease in Sicily and working remotely from there for a while.
    And I'm guessing that your wife and you are very non-high risk and as long as you don't come back and hug your grandparents at the airport then surely all is good.
    By brave I wasn’t referring to the risk of contacting the virus which I think is low in most of Western Europe. It’s what happens when you get back and find you have no income. As Ian said this morning the plane is the biggest risk.
    Eh? What do you mean by no income? For WFHers it's a no change scenario being quarantined or not. Obviously of your job requires in person attendance then it's a different story and yes, I think I wouldn't consider going overseas in that scenario.
    Although isn't Sicily a failure of imagination? What about Barbados?
    I read Barbados was mulling one year work visas for remote workers to make up for tourism losses.
    Yep that's exactly what they are doing. Hence my suggestion.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 8,480
    edited July 2020
    MaxPB said:

    TOPPING said:

    MaxPB said:

    nichomar said:

    TOPPING said:

    MaxPB said:

    nichomar said:

    Foxy said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Spanish Bombs as a holiday destination?
    You’d be brave to go anywhere out of the UK for a holiday.
    I've got Sicily and Naples booked for August and September respectively. It's not that risky if you can WFH indefinitely. My wife and I were thinking about getting a two or three month lease in Sicily and working remotely from there for a while.
    And I'm guessing that your wife and you are very non-high risk and as long as you don't come back and hug your grandparents at the airport then surely all is good.
    By brave I wasn’t referring to the risk of contacting the virus which I think is low in most of Western Europe. It’s what happens when you get back and find you have no income. As Ian said this morning the plane is the biggest risk.
    Eh? What do you mean by no income? For WFHers it's a no change scenario being quarantined or not. Obviously of your job requires in person attendance then it's a different story and yes, I think I wouldn't consider going overseas in that scenario.
    Although isn't Sicily a failure of imagination? What about Barbados?
    Not in the slightest, Sicily has it all. Amazing beaches, great food, lovely accomodation and incredible wine. It's probably my favourite place to go in the world.
    Sicily indeed has multiple layers of culture and history, visible in the people, and great food. There are also some quite acute pockets of deprivation in some areas, that are worse than parts of Greece too, but they're easy to avoid if you want to. Our hotelier there last time was the spitting image of a Greek family friend from the Peloponnese.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,921
    MaxPB said:

    TOPPING said:

    MaxPB said:

    nichomar said:

    TOPPING said:

    MaxPB said:

    nichomar said:

    Foxy said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Spanish Bombs as a holiday destination?
    You’d be brave to go anywhere out of the UK for a holiday.
    I've got Sicily and Naples booked for August and September respectively. It's not that risky if you can WFH indefinitely. My wife and I were thinking about getting a two or three month lease in Sicily and working remotely from there for a while.
    And I'm guessing that your wife and you are very non-high risk and as long as you don't come back and hug your grandparents at the airport then surely all is good.
    By brave I wasn’t referring to the risk of contacting the virus which I think is low in most of Western Europe. It’s what happens when you get back and find you have no income. As Ian said this morning the plane is the biggest risk.
    Eh? What do you mean by no income? For WFHers it's a no change scenario being quarantined or not. Obviously of your job requires in person attendance then it's a different story and yes, I think I wouldn't consider going overseas in that scenario.
    Although isn't Sicily a failure of imagination? What about Barbados?
    Not in the slightest, Sicily has it all. Amazing beaches, great food, lovely accomodation and incredible wine. It's probably my favourite place to go in the world.
    One of my favourites too. I'm seriously considering a sabbatical. No gap year and working for myself for 12 years has left me hankering for a bit of travelling. Meandering to Sicily, via South of France, Ventimeglia, Florence, Rome and Naples is top of the agenda at the moment. Ending in a long stay there.
  • Fysics_TeacherFysics_Teacher Posts: 6,060
    TOPPING said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:
    I assume he’s not going to get paid whilst he’s out there?

    Mr. Teacher, I do sympathise with teachers given the tendency for the political class to just hurl problems into the curriculum as things to be taught. That sort of government by headline is often not well-considered, and budgets are going to be constrained with the economic impact of the plague.

    Teaching basic cookery skills is very useful, but with all these things the question that needs to be asked is: instead of what?
    Do it as part of maths instead of boring shit like algebra and calculus.
    There is quite a bit of maths involved in cooking of course; cutting a pizza into seven equal pieces while ensuring that everyone gets their fair share of pineapple chunks is a non trivial task...
    Pineapple on a pizza is great, but anyone who cuts a pizza into an odd number of slices is not to be trusted . . .
    So what would you do if you had seven people? Cut it into 14 slices, two each?
    There is no situation involving pizzas and sharing where cutting each pizza into eight pieces doesn't work. People eat different amounts, some like one pizza more than another, they will figure it out.
    What I'm not quite working out is why on earth anyone would order pizza and then not have the whole pizza? Maybe leave one slice if you reach a standstill? What's all this if you have seven people cut your pizza into 14?
    This is the problem with trying to make maths problems “relevant”.

    It can crop up in Physics too. This: http://www.mrao.cam.ac.uk/~steve/astrophysics/webpages/barometer_story.htm
    is a story I first read when I was at school and still use in lessons from time to time.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603
    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    MaxPB said:

    nichomar said:

    TOPPING said:

    MaxPB said:

    nichomar said:

    Foxy said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Spanish Bombs as a holiday destination?
    You’d be brave to go anywhere out of the UK for a holiday.
    I've got Sicily and Naples booked for August and September respectively. It's not that risky if you can WFH indefinitely. My wife and I were thinking about getting a two or three month lease in Sicily and working remotely from there for a while.
    And I'm guessing that your wife and you are very non-high risk and as long as you don't come back and hug your grandparents at the airport then surely all is good.
    By brave I wasn’t referring to the risk of contacting the virus which I think is low in most of Western Europe. It’s what happens when you get back and find you have no income. As Ian said this morning the plane is the biggest risk.
    Eh? What do you mean by no income? For WFHers it's a no change scenario being quarantined or not. Obviously of your job requires in person attendance then it's a different story and yes, I think I wouldn't consider going overseas in that scenario.
    Although isn't Sicily a failure of imagination? What about Barbados?
    I read Barbados was mulling one year work visas for remote workers to make up for tourism losses.
    Yep that's exactly what they are doing. Hence my suggestion.
    Yeah I had heard about it but ultimately I find Barbados to be extremely dull. It has absolutely no character of its own other than what they think rich tourists want. Which is good for those who want that, but I don't and neither would my wife, I think it would end up feeling like a gilded cage.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,454
    IanB2 said:

    OT, this is a reasonably worthwhile long read for any PB’er who isn’t so busy not to have ten minutes to spare. Which I’d suggest is all of you.

    https://unherd.com/2020/07/has-lockdown-broken-old-habits-for-good/?tl_inbound=1&tl_groups[0]=18743&tl_period_type=3

    Perhaps unfairly, I gave up after this line about wigs in the 18th century - "It seems extraordinary to us today that people should have gone to these extremes of unnecessary effort and expense." - has the author not heard of one Donald J Trump?
  • Fysics_TeacherFysics_Teacher Posts: 6,060

    MaxPB said:

    TOPPING said:

    MaxPB said:

    nichomar said:

    TOPPING said:

    MaxPB said:

    nichomar said:

    Foxy said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Spanish Bombs as a holiday destination?
    You’d be brave to go anywhere out of the UK for a holiday.
    I've got Sicily and Naples booked for August and September respectively. It's not that risky if you can WFH indefinitely. My wife and I were thinking about getting a two or three month lease in Sicily and working remotely from there for a while.
    And I'm guessing that your wife and you are very non-high risk and as long as you don't come back and hug your grandparents at the airport then surely all is good.
    By brave I wasn’t referring to the risk of contacting the virus which I think is low in most of Western Europe. It’s what happens when you get back and find you have no income. As Ian said this morning the plane is the biggest risk.
    Eh? What do you mean by no income? For WFHers it's a no change scenario being quarantined or not. Obviously of your job requires in person attendance then it's a different story and yes, I think I wouldn't consider going overseas in that scenario.
    Although isn't Sicily a failure of imagination? What about Barbados?
    Not in the slightest, Sicily has it all. Amazing beaches, great food, lovely accomodation and incredible wine. It's probably my favourite place to go in the world.
    Sicily indeed has multiple layers of culture and history, visible in the people, and great food. There are also some quite acute pockets of deprivation in some areas, that are worse than parts of Greece too, but they're easy to avoid if you want to. Our hotelier there last time was the spitting image of a Greek family friend from the Peloponnese.
    There was a time when it was part of the Greek world. I seem to remember that the cathedral in Syracuse is essentially the old Greek temple.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,840
    "Digital nomads" was quite a thing amongst hipster millennials before CV 19.
    Others may be seeing the opportunity.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,124

    RobD said:

    Scott_xP said:
    I assume they said the same about the smoking ad ban?
    Advertisers don't want restrictions on advertising shocker.
    For Scott_xP as long as it's anti-Boris...........
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,454
    RobD said:

    Scott_xP said:
    I assume they said the same about the smoking ad ban?
    It should also create opportunities for different types of industries to get more exposure as well so wont cost the full amount. Even if it did thats about $20 per head per year, money well spent if it has any measurable impact on obesity rates (it may just be slowing the growth in obesity rather than reversing it at this stage).

    Happy to give the government some credit on this one, a health crisis gives cover to take some measures that wouldnt normally be open to a conservative government, and they are right to have taken some action.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,840
    Mortimer said:

    MaxPB said:

    TOPPING said:

    MaxPB said:

    nichomar said:

    TOPPING said:

    MaxPB said:

    nichomar said:

    Foxy said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Spanish Bombs as a holiday destination?
    You’d be brave to go anywhere out of the UK for a holiday.
    I've got Sicily and Naples booked for August and September respectively. It's not that risky if you can WFH indefinitely. My wife and I were thinking about getting a two or three month lease in Sicily and working remotely from there for a while.
    And I'm guessing that your wife and you are very non-high risk and as long as you don't come back and hug your grandparents at the airport then surely all is good.
    By brave I wasn’t referring to the risk of contacting the virus which I think is low in most of Western Europe. It’s what happens when you get back and find you have no income. As Ian said this morning the plane is the biggest risk.
    Eh? What do you mean by no income? For WFHers it's a no change scenario being quarantined or not. Obviously of your job requires in person attendance then it's a different story and yes, I think I wouldn't consider going overseas in that scenario.
    Although isn't Sicily a failure of imagination? What about Barbados?
    Not in the slightest, Sicily has it all. Amazing beaches, great food, lovely accomodation and incredible wine. It's probably my favourite place to go in the world.
    One of my favourites too. I'm seriously considering a sabbatical. No gap year and working for myself for 12 years has left me hankering for a bit of travelling. Meandering to Sicily, via South of France, Ventimeglia, Florence, Rome and Naples is top of the agenda at the moment. Ending in a long stay there.
    If you've got a year would have to be Asia for me. 5 years for the cost of 1 year in Europe.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603
    dixiedean said:

    Mortimer said:

    MaxPB said:

    TOPPING said:

    MaxPB said:

    nichomar said:

    TOPPING said:

    MaxPB said:

    nichomar said:

    Foxy said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Spanish Bombs as a holiday destination?
    You’d be brave to go anywhere out of the UK for a holiday.
    I've got Sicily and Naples booked for August and September respectively. It's not that risky if you can WFH indefinitely. My wife and I were thinking about getting a two or three month lease in Sicily and working remotely from there for a while.
    And I'm guessing that your wife and you are very non-high risk and as long as you don't come back and hug your grandparents at the airport then surely all is good.
    By brave I wasn’t referring to the risk of contacting the virus which I think is low in most of Western Europe. It’s what happens when you get back and find you have no income. As Ian said this morning the plane is the biggest risk.
    Eh? What do you mean by no income? For WFHers it's a no change scenario being quarantined or not. Obviously of your job requires in person attendance then it's a different story and yes, I think I wouldn't consider going overseas in that scenario.
    Although isn't Sicily a failure of imagination? What about Barbados?
    Not in the slightest, Sicily has it all. Amazing beaches, great food, lovely accomodation and incredible wine. It's probably my favourite place to go in the world.
    One of my favourites too. I'm seriously considering a sabbatical. No gap year and working for myself for 12 years has left me hankering for a bit of travelling. Meandering to Sicily, via South of France, Ventimeglia, Florence, Rome and Naples is top of the agenda at the moment. Ending in a long stay there.
    If you've got a year would have to be Asia for me. 5 years for the cost of 1 year in Europe.
    Yeah, same advice here too. SE Asia is incredible, after a vaccine it will probably be a great place to go.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,851

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    On topic: aren't voters in the 2019 Tory gains more invested in "Boris" than the Tory party? So perhaps it's not surprising: given structural antipathy to the Tories in many of these areas, it was only seats where Johnson himself was particularly popular that the Tory candidate won. In traditional Tory seats, by contrast, "Boris" was likely less important as a selling point. A corollary of this is that replacing Johnson mid-term in an effort to bolster Tory support may have the opposite effect in some of these seats. I have a gut feeling that Sunak may be less popular in these seats than in the traditional Tory home counties, but it'd be interesting to see polling on that.
    There's also the Brexit factor at work, although I imagine that will fade as an issue over time, especially if it turns out to be a bit shit, as seems likely.

    Indeed, according to Redfield 2019 Tory voters prefer Boris to Starmer by more than they prefer Sunak to Starmer, only 2019 LD voters prefer Sunak to Starmer by more than they prefer Boris to Starmer and the latter are very posh London and Home Counties centred

    https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voting-intention-22-july/
    One very likely explanation for this is the similar psychological response to a change in buying behaviour, a kind of confirmation bias that is the opposite to buyers remorse. In other words, I have changed who I buy from, away from my traditional brand, and I need to keep telling myself it was the right decision, because part of me tells me it was not. "I DID make the right decision! I DID" The person will look for those reasons why they should convince themselves it was the correct decision. Clever brands will keep marketing to such folk to keep them on board. In political terms Tony Blair was the most recent to achieve this, and before him Margaret Thatcher.

    As I have said many times before, Johnson is no Tony Blair, and he is definitely no Margaret Thatcher. This effect will doubtless melt away long before another GE.
    That explanation doesn't explain why they "bought from him" in the first place.

    There's no swing in these number. The logical thought surely is that the voters in these seats like him . . . because they like him . . . and that's why they voted for him in the first place. Not that they voted for him then decided they like him, because they voted for him.
    You and Nigel are both right. They voted for Johnson because they like him and they say they still like him. The latter could be for one of two reasons. (i) It's too early to have realized the mistake. (ii) They have realized their mistake but are not yet ready to admit it. All the Red Wallers are probably in one or the other camp. We can postulate that a (iii) category - realized the mistake AND saying so - is virtually empty right now. It must be otherwise it would be showing up in the data.

    The key question here - which we can't answer - is what is the split between (i) and (ii). Heavily (i) means good news for the Cons. Their strategy is predicated on the Red Wall still being in a (i) state by the time of the next election - because if these voters have not clocked their mistake by then the chances are they will repeat it. But if (as I hope) there are lots in (ii), Labour are set fair. Why? Because from (ii) it's only a matter of time before they take the decisive step to (iii) - which will duly show up in the polls and more importantly at the ballot box.
    Odd that you don't have category (iv) they haven't made a mistake.

    Anyway Nigel is disagreeing with that, he postulates despite the evidence to the contrary that people voted just because they disliked Corbyn and they never liked Johnson in the first place. Despite the polls saying the opposite.
    There's no need for a category (iv) because in terms of impact it's the same as (i). There is no electoral difference between a Red Waller voting Tory not realizing they are being conned and one who does so positively in the knowledge of being conned - i.e. has not really been conned at all.

    I happen to disagree with Nigel on the 2nd point. I think Johnson is a genuine asset when it comes to elections and I fear this will continue to be the case.
    Again, if they're not being conned?

    If you want to understand voters, maybe start with a thought that they and what they are voting for might be genuine and not "a mistake" or "being conned".
    I agree the principle but the Red Wallers voting Johnson is a special case and so it requires a special analysis. I tried to deliver this but it appears from your comment that I've failed.

    I'll be back shortly to say exactly the same thing in a different way and see if I have more joy.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,718
    There's a 'nasty' floating about. Usual thing, someone you know has had their account hacked. Asks you to go to Dropbox then put in your password.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,718

    RobD said:

    Scott_xP said:
    I assume they said the same about the smoking ad ban?
    PJ O'Rourke pointed out that banning 10 years working in mines caused instant mass unemployment among 10 year olds.

    It did however leave them free to pursue other goals. Such as living to be 11.
    Or going to school!
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,084

    MaxPB said:

    nichomar said:

    Foxy said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Spanish Bombs as a holiday destination?
    You’d be brave to go anywhere out of the UK for a holiday.
    I've got Sicily and Naples booked for August and September respectively. It's not that risky if you can WFH indefinitely. My wife and I were thinking about getting a two or three month lease in Sicily and working remotely from there for a while.
    Without wanting to sound like an advert, there are great prices available all over Europe at the moment.

    The fairly upscale house we stayed in in the Dodecanese islands the other year seems to have halved its prices.
    Yes, I spent half an hour rechecking my hotels on booking.com on Saturday morning. In one I exchanged a single room for a double, in another a double room for a mountain view double, and in a third a standard room for a room with a balcony. Making all three of these upgrades and rebooking at latest prices, I still made a saving in total of over €100.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,084
    kle4 said:

    MaxPB said:

    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:
    I assume he’s not going to get paid whilst he’s out there?

    Mr. Teacher, I do sympathise with teachers given the tendency for the political class to just hurl problems into the curriculum as things to be taught. That sort of government by headline is often not well-considered, and budgets are going to be constrained with the economic impact of the plague.

    Teaching basic cookery skills is very useful, but with all these things the question that needs to be asked is: instead of what?
    Do it as part of maths instead of boring shit like algebra and calculus.
    There is quite a bit of maths involved in cooking of course; cutting a pizza into seven equal pieces while ensuring that everyone gets their fair share of pineapple chunks is a non trivial task...
    x = number of slices that end up in the bin.
    x = 7.
    Then, having done algebra, arithmetic and distribution, what is the value of pie?
    The calorific value deals with physics and biochemistry, too.
    Who knows what one calorie is defined as without looking it up?
    The amount of energy required to heat one millilitre of water by 1 degree.
    I have never heard that in my life before.
    Get out there and live, man!
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    edited July 2020
    MaxPB said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    MaxPB said:

    nichomar said:

    TOPPING said:

    MaxPB said:

    nichomar said:

    Foxy said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Spanish Bombs as a holiday destination?
    You’d be brave to go anywhere out of the UK for a holiday.
    I've got Sicily and Naples booked for August and September respectively. It's not that risky if you can WFH indefinitely. My wife and I were thinking about getting a two or three month lease in Sicily and working remotely from there for a while.
    And I'm guessing that your wife and you are very non-high risk and as long as you don't come back and hug your grandparents at the airport then surely all is good.
    By brave I wasn’t referring to the risk of contacting the virus which I think is low in most of Western Europe. It’s what happens when you get back and find you have no income. As Ian said this morning the plane is the biggest risk.
    Eh? What do you mean by no income? For WFHers it's a no change scenario being quarantined or not. Obviously of your job requires in person attendance then it's a different story and yes, I think I wouldn't consider going overseas in that scenario.
    Although isn't Sicily a failure of imagination? What about Barbados?
    I read Barbados was mulling one year work visas for remote workers to make up for tourism losses.
    Yep that's exactly what they are doing. Hence my suggestion.
    Yeah I had heard about it but ultimately I find Barbados to be extremely dull. It has absolutely no character of its own other than what they think rich tourists want. Which is good for those who want that, but I don't and neither would my wife, I think it would end up feeling like a gilded cage.
    You could be right. Plenty of places change character once they are "work" places.

    But for a few weeks - what fun!
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,084
    HYUFD said:

    TimT said:

    HYUFD said:

    US.

    “There is open talk – not internet crazy talk – of there being some kind of civil war.”

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2020/07/27/trump-may-lose-election-american-culture-war-will-continue-rage/

    I foresee a 269-269 result as very plausible, the first EC tie since 1800 as per this map
    https://www.270towin.com/

    Such a result would fully reflect the fact the US is literally split down the middle on the culture war
    Talking bullshit again, as per usual when it comes to the US.
    We will see in November
    If there are any caveats to your prediction, how about you break with tradition and share them in advance? ;)
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,084
    nichomar said:

    Foxy said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Spanish Bombs as a holiday destination?
    You’d be brave to go anywhere out of the UK for a holiday.
    Depends where you live, and where you are going. And, most critically, on how you plan to get there.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,625
    felix said:

    RobD said:

    Scott_xP said:
    I assume they said the same about the smoking ad ban?
    Advertisers don't want restrictions on advertising shocker.
    For Scott_xP as long as it's anti-Boris...........
    I'm quite sure that vast amounts of potential revenue (and jobs) were lost because even in the US, sales of https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Davy_Crockett_(nuclear_device) were not allowed to the man on the street.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 10,343

    MaxPB said:

    TOPPING said:

    MaxPB said:

    nichomar said:

    TOPPING said:

    MaxPB said:

    nichomar said:

    Foxy said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Spanish Bombs as a holiday destination?
    You’d be brave to go anywhere out of the UK for a holiday.
    I've got Sicily and Naples booked for August and September respectively. It's not that risky if you can WFH indefinitely. My wife and I were thinking about getting a two or three month lease in Sicily and working remotely from there for a while.
    And I'm guessing that your wife and you are very non-high risk and as long as you don't come back and hug your grandparents at the airport then surely all is good.
    By brave I wasn’t referring to the risk of contacting the virus which I think is low in most of Western Europe. It’s what happens when you get back and find you have no income. As Ian said this morning the plane is the biggest risk.
    Eh? What do you mean by no income? For WFHers it's a no change scenario being quarantined or not. Obviously of your job requires in person attendance then it's a different story and yes, I think I wouldn't consider going overseas in that scenario.
    Although isn't Sicily a failure of imagination? What about Barbados?
    Not in the slightest, Sicily has it all. Amazing beaches, great food, lovely accomodation and incredible wine. It's probably my favourite place to go in the world.
    Sicily indeed has multiple layers of culture and history, visible in the people, and great food. There are also some quite acute pockets of deprivation in some areas, that are worse than parts of Greece too, but they're easy to avoid if you want to. Our hotelier there last time was the spitting image of a Greek family friend from the Peloponnese.
    There was a time when it was part of the Greek world. I seem to remember that the cathedral in Syracuse is essentially the old Greek temple.
    Sicily was a Greek colony with city states by the 6th century BCE. Its liturgy (RC) is said to be principally Greek to this day.

  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,084
    dixiedean said:

    Mortimer said:

    MaxPB said:

    TOPPING said:

    MaxPB said:

    nichomar said:

    TOPPING said:

    MaxPB said:

    nichomar said:

    Foxy said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Spanish Bombs as a holiday destination?
    You’d be brave to go anywhere out of the UK for a holiday.
    I've got Sicily and Naples booked for August and September respectively. It's not that risky if you can WFH indefinitely. My wife and I were thinking about getting a two or three month lease in Sicily and working remotely from there for a while.
    And I'm guessing that your wife and you are very non-high risk and as long as you don't come back and hug your grandparents at the airport then surely all is good.
    By brave I wasn’t referring to the risk of contacting the virus which I think is low in most of Western Europe. It’s what happens when you get back and find you have no income. As Ian said this morning the plane is the biggest risk.
    Eh? What do you mean by no income? For WFHers it's a no change scenario being quarantined or not. Obviously of your job requires in person attendance then it's a different story and yes, I think I wouldn't consider going overseas in that scenario.
    Although isn't Sicily a failure of imagination? What about Barbados?
    Not in the slightest, Sicily has it all. Amazing beaches, great food, lovely accomodation and incredible wine. It's probably my favourite place to go in the world.
    One of my favourites too. I'm seriously considering a sabbatical. No gap year and working for myself for 12 years has left me hankering for a bit of travelling. Meandering to Sicily, via South of France, Ventimeglia, Florence, Rome and Naples is top of the agenda at the moment. Ending in a long stay there.
    If you've got a year would have to be Asia for me. 5 years for the cost of 1 year in Europe.
    I am of an age where I wouldn’t want to use up five years all in one go.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    TOPPING said:

    MaxPB said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    MaxPB said:

    nichomar said:

    TOPPING said:

    MaxPB said:

    nichomar said:

    Foxy said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Spanish Bombs as a holiday destination?
    You’d be brave to go anywhere out of the UK for a holiday.
    I've got Sicily and Naples booked for August and September respectively. It's not that risky if you can WFH indefinitely. My wife and I were thinking about getting a two or three month lease in Sicily and working remotely from there for a while.
    And I'm guessing that your wife and you are very non-high risk and as long as you don't come back and hug your grandparents at the airport then surely all is good.
    By brave I wasn’t referring to the risk of contacting the virus which I think is low in most of Western Europe. It’s what happens when you get back and find you have no income. As Ian said this morning the plane is the biggest risk.
    Eh? What do you mean by no income? For WFHers it's a no change scenario being quarantined or not. Obviously of your job requires in person attendance then it's a different story and yes, I think I wouldn't consider going overseas in that scenario.
    Although isn't Sicily a failure of imagination? What about Barbados?
    I read Barbados was mulling one year work visas for remote workers to make up for tourism losses.
    Yep that's exactly what they are doing. Hence my suggestion.
    Yeah I had heard about it but ultimately I find Barbados to be extremely dull. It has absolutely no character of its own other than what they think rich tourists want. Which is good for those who want that, but I don't and neither would my wife, I think it would end up feeling like a gilded cage.
    You could be right. Plenty of places change character once they are "work" places.

    But for a few weeks - what fun!
    The best fun would be sending pics to your seething UK based co-workers in January.

    Or spending hours looking for the best palm tree festooned zoom call background.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    IanB2 said:

    nichomar said:

    Foxy said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Spanish Bombs as a holiday destination?
    You’d be brave to go anywhere out of the UK for a holiday.
    Depends where you live, and where you are going. And, most critically, on how you plan to get there.
    Or rather, how you plan to get back....!!
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Syracuse was a Greek colony, if memory serves. So was Saguntum (Spain) and Marseilles (Massilia, originally). As was Taras (later Tarentum). And, of course, Asia Minor was riddled with Greek cities.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950

    TOPPING said:

    MaxPB said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    MaxPB said:

    nichomar said:

    TOPPING said:

    MaxPB said:

    nichomar said:

    Foxy said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Spanish Bombs as a holiday destination?
    You’d be brave to go anywhere out of the UK for a holiday.
    I've got Sicily and Naples booked for August and September respectively. It's not that risky if you can WFH indefinitely. My wife and I were thinking about getting a two or three month lease in Sicily and working remotely from there for a while.
    And I'm guessing that your wife and you are very non-high risk and as long as you don't come back and hug your grandparents at the airport then surely all is good.
    By brave I wasn’t referring to the risk of contacting the virus which I think is low in most of Western Europe. It’s what happens when you get back and find you have no income. As Ian said this morning the plane is the biggest risk.
    Eh? What do you mean by no income? For WFHers it's a no change scenario being quarantined or not. Obviously of your job requires in person attendance then it's a different story and yes, I think I wouldn't consider going overseas in that scenario.
    Although isn't Sicily a failure of imagination? What about Barbados?
    I read Barbados was mulling one year work visas for remote workers to make up for tourism losses.
    Yep that's exactly what they are doing. Hence my suggestion.
    Yeah I had heard about it but ultimately I find Barbados to be extremely dull. It has absolutely no character of its own other than what they think rich tourists want. Which is good for those who want that, but I don't and neither would my wife, I think it would end up feeling like a gilded cage.
    You could be right. Plenty of places change character once they are "work" places.

    But for a few weeks - what fun!
    The best fun would be sending pics to your seething UK based co-workers in January.

    Or spending hours looking for the best palm tree festooned zoom call background.
    Yes. As your Slough branch colleagues put those Zoom beach scenes behind them in a virtual background.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 8,480
    edited July 2020

    Syracuse was a Greek colony, if memory serves. So was Saguntum (Spain) and Marseilles (Massilia, originally). As was Taras (later Tarentum). And, of course, Asia Minor was riddled with Greek cities.

    Hence why another location for super greek-alike looking people is Izmir ( formerly Smyrna ), and other towns on that coast, like Marmaris.

    Turkey is cheaper than ever, but it seems to have lost quite a bit of British tourism over the last few years.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,718

    TOPPING said:

    MaxPB said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    MaxPB said:

    nichomar said:

    TOPPING said:

    MaxPB said:

    nichomar said:

    Foxy said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Spanish Bombs as a holiday destination?
    You’d be brave to go anywhere out of the UK for a holiday.
    I've got Sicily and Naples booked for August and September respectively. It's not that risky if you can WFH indefinitely. My wife and I were thinking about getting a two or three month lease in Sicily and working remotely from there for a while.
    And I'm guessing that your wife and you are very non-high risk and as long as you don't come back and hug your grandparents at the airport then surely all is good.
    By brave I wasn’t referring to the risk of contacting the virus which I think is low in most of Western Europe. It’s what happens when you get back and find you have no income. As Ian said this morning the plane is the biggest risk.
    Eh? What do you mean by no income? For WFHers it's a no change scenario being quarantined or not. Obviously of your job requires in person attendance then it's a different story and yes, I think I wouldn't consider going overseas in that scenario.
    Although isn't Sicily a failure of imagination? What about Barbados?
    I read Barbados was mulling one year work visas for remote workers to make up for tourism losses.
    Yep that's exactly what they are doing. Hence my suggestion.
    Yeah I had heard about it but ultimately I find Barbados to be extremely dull. It has absolutely no character of its own other than what they think rich tourists want. Which is good for those who want that, but I don't and neither would my wife, I think it would end up feeling like a gilded cage.
    You could be right. Plenty of places change character once they are "work" places.

    But for a few weeks - what fun!
    The best fun would be sending pics to your seething UK based co-workers in January.

    Or spending hours looking for the best palm tree festooned zoom call background.
    Zoom actually have that as one of the options. You don't have to have a washing line or your mantelpiece or whatever as your backdrop. Does wind people up a bit!
    They've got the Golden Gate Bridge as an option, too.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,718
    dixiedean said:

    Mortimer said:

    MaxPB said:

    TOPPING said:

    MaxPB said:

    nichomar said:

    TOPPING said:

    MaxPB said:

    nichomar said:

    Foxy said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Spanish Bombs as a holiday destination?
    You’d be brave to go anywhere out of the UK for a holiday.
    I've got Sicily and Naples booked for August and September respectively. It's not that risky if you can WFH indefinitely. My wife and I were thinking about getting a two or three month lease in Sicily and working remotely from there for a while.
    And I'm guessing that your wife and you are very non-high risk and as long as you don't come back and hug your grandparents at the airport then surely all is good.
    By brave I wasn’t referring to the risk of contacting the virus which I think is low in most of Western Europe. It’s what happens when you get back and find you have no income. As Ian said this morning the plane is the biggest risk.
    Eh? What do you mean by no income? For WFHers it's a no change scenario being quarantined or not. Obviously of your job requires in person attendance then it's a different story and yes, I think I wouldn't consider going overseas in that scenario.
    Although isn't Sicily a failure of imagination? What about Barbados?
    Not in the slightest, Sicily has it all. Amazing beaches, great food, lovely accomodation and incredible wine. It's probably my favourite place to go in the world.
    One of my favourites too. I'm seriously considering a sabbatical. No gap year and working for myself for 12 years has left me hankering for a bit of travelling. Meandering to Sicily, via South of France, Ventimeglia, Florence, Rome and Naples is top of the agenda at the moment. Ending in a long stay there.
    If you've got a year would have to be Asia for me. 5 years for the cost of 1 year in Europe.
    Getting a bit long in the tooth for it now, but I always wanted to travel the Silk Road through Samarkand to China!
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,851
    justin124 said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    On topic: aren't voters in the 2019 Tory gains more invested in "Boris" than the Tory party? So perhaps it's not surprising: given structural antipathy to the Tories in many of these areas, it was only seats where Johnson himself was particularly popular that the Tory candidate won. In traditional Tory seats, by contrast, "Boris" was likely less important as a selling point. A corollary of this is that replacing Johnson mid-term in an effort to bolster Tory support may have the opposite effect in some of these seats. I have a gut feeling that Sunak may be less popular in these seats than in the traditional Tory home counties, but it'd be interesting to see polling on that.
    There's also the Brexit factor at work, although I imagine that will fade as an issue over time, especially if it turns out to be a bit shit, as seems likely.

    Indeed, according to Redfield 2019 Tory voters prefer Boris to Starmer by more than they prefer Sunak to Starmer, only 2019 LD voters prefer Sunak to Starmer by more than they prefer Boris to Starmer and the latter are very posh London and Home Counties centred

    https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voting-intention-22-july/
    One very likely explanation for this is the similar psychological response to a change in buying behaviour, a kind of confirmation bias that is the opposite to buyers remorse. In other words, I have changed who I buy from, away from my traditional brand, and I need to keep telling myself it was the right decision, because part of me tells me it was not. "I DID make the right decision! I DID" The person will look for those reasons why they should convince themselves it was the correct decision. Clever brands will keep marketing to such folk to keep them on board. In political terms Tony Blair was the most recent to achieve this, and before him Margaret Thatcher.

    As I have said many times before, Johnson is no Tony Blair, and he is definitely no Margaret Thatcher. This effect will doubtless melt away long before another GE.
    That explanation doesn't explain why they "bought from him" in the first place.

    There's no swing in these number. The logical thought surely is that the voters in these seats like him . . . because they like him . . . and that's why they voted for him in the first place. Not that they voted for him then decided they like him, because they voted for him.
    You and Nigel are both right. They voted for Johnson because they like him and they say they still like him. The latter could be for one of two reasons. (i) It's too early to have realized the mistake. (ii) They have realized their mistake but are not yet ready to admit it. All the Red Wallers are probably in one or the other camp. We can postulate that a (iii) category - realized the mistake AND saying so - is virtually empty right now. It must be otherwise it would be showing up in the data.

    The key question here - which we can't answer - is what is the split between (i) and (ii). Heavily (i) means good news for the Cons. Their strategy is predicated on the Red Wall still being in a (i) state by the time of the next election - because if these voters have not clocked their mistake by then the chances are they will repeat it. But if (as I hope) there are lots in (ii), Labour are set fair. Why? Because from (ii) it's only a matter of time before they take the decisive step to (iii) - which will duly show up in the polls and more importantly at the ballot box.
    Odd that you don't have category (iv) they haven't made a mistake.

    Anyway Nigel is disagreeing with that, he postulates despite the evidence to the contrary that people voted just because they disliked Corbyn and they never liked Johnson in the first place. Despite the polls saying the opposite.
    There's no need for a category (iv) because in terms of impact it's the same as (i). There is no electoral difference between a Red Waller voting Tory not realizing they are being conned and one who does so positively in the knowledge of being conned - i.e. has not really been conned at all.

    I happen to disagree with Nigel on the 2nd point. I think Johnson is a genuine asset when it comes to elections and I fear this will continue to be the case.
    Overall such voters are probably less educated and quite limited in insight. Over time,though, the reality of Johnson being an utter shyster will percolate through to them - though some will continue to feel affection for him in the way that many Eastenders admired the Kray twins. The London dockers marching to support Enoch Powell in 1968 following his 'rivers of blood' speech also comes to mind.
    I like your 1st analogy. Eastenders = Red Wallers, Johnson = Ronnie Kray. People falling for a raffish persona despite the obvious negatives. That kind of works. It shouldn't do but it does. But the 2nd one doesn't. The dockers marched for Powell out of genuine support for his racist worldview. No raffish persona with Powell at all. Quite the opposite. An introverted intellectual. It was about what he said. He said the day would soon come, if immigration continued unchecked, when the black man would hold the whip over the white man in Britain, and furthermore that this would be a bad thing, as indeed it sounds with the reference to "the whip", and the London dockers agreed. How many of their grandsons are Millwall fans today, I wonder?
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787

    Syracuse was a Greek colony, if memory serves. So was Saguntum (Spain) and Marseilles (Massilia, originally). As was Taras (later Tarentum). And, of course, Asia Minor was riddled with Greek cities.

    Hence why another location for super greek-alike looking people is Izmir, and other parts of that coast.

    Turkey is cheaper than ever, but it seems to have lost quite a lot of British tourism over the last few years.
    The Greeks actually temporarily occupied Izmir (Smyrna as was) for a short while after WW1, but were driven out by Ataturk's Turkish nationalist revival. The Smyrna campaign was part of the Greek irredentist "Megali idea" which would have included Greece taking pretty much the whole western coast line of Turkey, and Constantinople of course.

    I should imagine that, the neo-Nazis of the Golden Dawn and their ilk aside, the whole thing has little resonance in modern Greece, a century on. However it does persist in the Greek diaspora: my wife has a Greek-American friend from college who told her that her parish priest insisted on referring to Turkey in sermons as "temporarily-occupied Asia Minor".
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,084

    dixiedean said:

    Mortimer said:

    MaxPB said:

    TOPPING said:

    MaxPB said:

    nichomar said:

    TOPPING said:

    MaxPB said:

    nichomar said:

    Foxy said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Spanish Bombs as a holiday destination?
    You’d be brave to go anywhere out of the UK for a holiday.
    I've got Sicily and Naples booked for August and September respectively. It's not that risky if you can WFH indefinitely. My wife and I were thinking about getting a two or three month lease in Sicily and working remotely from there for a while.
    And I'm guessing that your wife and you are very non-high risk and as long as you don't come back and hug your grandparents at the airport then surely all is good.
    By brave I wasn’t referring to the risk of contacting the virus which I think is low in most of Western Europe. It’s what happens when you get back and find you have no income. As Ian said this morning the plane is the biggest risk.
    Eh? What do you mean by no income? For WFHers it's a no change scenario being quarantined or not. Obviously of your job requires in person attendance then it's a different story and yes, I think I wouldn't consider going overseas in that scenario.
    Although isn't Sicily a failure of imagination? What about Barbados?
    Not in the slightest, Sicily has it all. Amazing beaches, great food, lovely accomodation and incredible wine. It's probably my favourite place to go in the world.
    One of my favourites too. I'm seriously considering a sabbatical. No gap year and working for myself for 12 years has left me hankering for a bit of travelling. Meandering to Sicily, via South of France, Ventimeglia, Florence, Rome and Naples is top of the agenda at the moment. Ending in a long stay there.
    If you've got a year would have to be Asia for me. 5 years for the cost of 1 year in Europe.
    Getting a bit long in the tooth for it now, but I always wanted to travel the Silk Road through Samarkand to China!
    Take a “freedom for Hong Kong!” banner with you, and you won’t have to worry about the cost of the return trip.
  • BannedinnParisBannedinnParis Posts: 1,884
    MaxPB said:

    HYUFD said:
    I assume he’s not going to get paid whilst he’s out there?
    He's entitled to paid annual leave.
    Well. Yes.
    That we've gone down the 'how dare he take holiday' line does not surprise me given where some of the denizens have this place have shat these last few months.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,149

    felix said:

    RobD said:

    Scott_xP said:
    I assume they said the same about the smoking ad ban?
    Advertisers don't want restrictions on advertising shocker.
    For Scott_xP as long as it's anti-Boris...........
    I'm quite sure that vast amounts of potential revenue (and jobs) were lost because even in the US, sales of https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Davy_Crockett_(nuclear_device) were not allowed to the man on the street.
    Just as well, as the minimum range diallable on the devise was within the lethal range of the firing team.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,718
    IanB2 said:

    dixiedean said:

    Mortimer said:

    MaxPB said:

    TOPPING said:

    MaxPB said:

    nichomar said:

    TOPPING said:

    MaxPB said:

    nichomar said:

    Foxy said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Spanish Bombs as a holiday destination?
    You’d be brave to go anywhere out of the UK for a holiday.
    I've got Sicily and Naples booked for August and September respectively. It's not that risky if you can WFH indefinitely. My wife and I were thinking about getting a two or three month lease in Sicily and working remotely from there for a while.
    And I'm guessing that your wife and you are very non-high risk and as long as you don't come back and hug your grandparents at the airport then surely all is good.
    By brave I wasn’t referring to the risk of contacting the virus which I think is low in most of Western Europe. It’s what happens when you get back and find you have no income. As Ian said this morning the plane is the biggest risk.
    Eh? What do you mean by no income? For WFHers it's a no change scenario being quarantined or not. Obviously of your job requires in person attendance then it's a different story and yes, I think I wouldn't consider going overseas in that scenario.
    Although isn't Sicily a failure of imagination? What about Barbados?
    Not in the slightest, Sicily has it all. Amazing beaches, great food, lovely accomodation and incredible wine. It's probably my favourite place to go in the world.
    One of my favourites too. I'm seriously considering a sabbatical. No gap year and working for myself for 12 years has left me hankering for a bit of travelling. Meandering to Sicily, via South of France, Ventimeglia, Florence, Rome and Naples is top of the agenda at the moment. Ending in a long stay there.
    If you've got a year would have to be Asia for me. 5 years for the cost of 1 year in Europe.
    Getting a bit long in the tooth for it now, but I always wanted to travel the Silk Road through Samarkand to China!
    Take a “freedom for Hong Kong!” banner with you, and you won’t have to worry about the cost of the return trip.
    I wouldn't get past Uigher-land, would I! Anyway, once in Beijing I'd head South for Vietnam and eventually, Thailand.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 8,480
    edited July 2020
    rpjs said:

    Syracuse was a Greek colony, if memory serves. So was Saguntum (Spain) and Marseilles (Massilia, originally). As was Taras (later Tarentum). And, of course, Asia Minor was riddled with Greek cities.

    Hence why another location for super greek-alike looking people is Izmir, and other parts of that coast.

    Turkey is cheaper than ever, but it seems to have lost quite a lot of British tourism over the last few years.
    The Greeks actually temporarily occupied Izmir (Smyrna as was) for a short while after WW1, but were driven out by Ataturk's Turkish nationalist revival. The Smyrna campaign was part of the Greek irredentist "Megali idea" which would have included Greece taking pretty much the whole western coast line of Turkey, and Constantinople of course.

    I should imagine that, the neo-Nazis of the Golden Dawn and their ilk aside, the whole thing has little resonance in modern Greece, a century on. However it does persist in the Greek diaspora: my wife has a Greek-American friend from college who told her that her parish priest insisted on referring to Turkey in sermons as "temporarily-occupied Asia Minor".
    Yes, having spent a fair time in Greece, I've heard quite a lot of this. As you say, I I think the chapter is historically closed - the Christian Greeks returned from cities like Smyrna, and many, but not all, of the people living there now look remarkably like descendants of Ionian Greeks who converted to Islam, which I think is what they are.
  • isamisam Posts: 40,731
    kinabalu said:

    justin124 said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    On topic: aren't voters in the 2019 Tory gains more invested in "Boris" than the Tory party? So perhaps it's not surprising: given structural antipathy to the Tories in many of these areas, it was only seats where Johnson himself was particularly popular that the Tory candidate won. In traditional Tory seats, by contrast, "Boris" was likely less important as a selling point. A corollary of this is that replacing Johnson mid-term in an effort to bolster Tory support may have the opposite effect in some of these seats. I have a gut feeling that Sunak may be less popular in these seats than in the traditional Tory home counties, but it'd be interesting to see polling on that.
    There's also the Brexit factor at work, although I imagine that will fade as an issue over time, especially if it turns out to be a bit shit, as seems likely.

    Indeed, according to Redfield 2019 Tory voters prefer Boris to Starmer by more than they prefer Sunak to Starmer, only 2019 LD voters prefer Sunak to Starmer by more than they prefer Boris to Starmer and the latter are very posh London and Home Counties centred

    https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voting-intention-22-july/
    One very likely explanation for this is the similar psychological response to a change in buying behaviour, a kind of confirmation bias that is the opposite to buyers remorse. In other words, I have changed who I buy from, away from my traditional brand, and I need to keep telling myself it was the right decision, because part of me tells me it was not. "I DID make the right decision! I DID" The person will look for those reasons why they should convince themselves it was the correct decision. Clever brands will keep marketing to such folk to keep them on board. In political terms Tony Blair was the most recent to achieve this, and before him Margaret Thatcher.

    As I have said many times before, Johnson is no Tony Blair, and he is definitely no Margaret Thatcher. This effect will doubtless melt away long before another GE.
    That explanation doesn't explain why they "bought from him" in the first place.

    There's no swing in these number. The logical thought surely is that the voters in these seats like him . . . because they like him . . . and that's why they voted for him in the first place. Not that they voted for him then decided they like him, because they voted for him.
    You and Nigel are both right. They voted for Johnson because they like him and they say they still like him. The latter could be for one of two reasons. (i) It's too early to have realized the mistake. (ii) They have realized their mistake but are not yet ready to admit it. All the Red Wallers are probably in one or the other camp. We can postulate that a (iii) category - realized the mistake AND saying so - is virtually empty right now. It must be otherwise it would be showing up in the data.

    The key question here - which we can't answer - is what is the split between (i) and (ii). Heavily (i) means good news for the Cons. Their strategy is predicated on the Red Wall still being in a (i) state by the time of the next election - because if these voters have not clocked their mistake by then the chances are they will repeat it. But if (as I hope) there are lots in (ii), Labour are set fair. Why? Because from (ii) it's only a matter of time before they take the decisive step to (iii) - which will duly show up in the polls and more importantly at the ballot box.
    Odd that you don't have category (iv) they haven't made a mistake.

    Anyway Nigel is disagreeing with that, he postulates despite the evidence to the contrary that people voted just because they disliked Corbyn and they never liked Johnson in the first place. Despite the polls saying the opposite.
    There's no need for a category (iv) because in terms of impact it's the same as (i). There is no electoral difference between a Red Waller voting Tory not realizing they are being conned and one who does so positively in the knowledge of being conned - i.e. has not really been conned at all.

    I happen to disagree with Nigel on the 2nd point. I think Johnson is a genuine asset when it comes to elections and I fear this will continue to be the case.
    Overall such voters are probably less educated and quite limited in insight. Over time,though, the reality of Johnson being an utter shyster will percolate through to them - though some will continue to feel affection for him in the way that many Eastenders admired the Kray twins. The London dockers marching to support Enoch Powell in 1968 following his 'rivers of blood' speech also comes to mind.
    I like your 1st analogy. Eastenders = Red Wallers, Johnson = Ronnie Kray. People falling for a raffish persona despite the obvious negatives. That kind of works. It shouldn't do but it does. But the 2nd one doesn't. The dockers marched for Powell out of genuine support for his racist worldview. No raffish persona with Powell at all. Quite the opposite. An introverted intellectual. It was about what he said. He said the day would soon come, if immigration continued unchecked, when the black man would hold the whip over the white man in Britain, and furthermore that this would be a bad thing, as indeed it sounds with the reference to "the whip", and the London dockers agreed. How many of their grandsons are Millwall fans today, I wonder?
    The whole point of the ‘whip hand’ quote was that someone else said it to Powell
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    edited July 2020

    dixiedean said:

    Mortimer said:

    MaxPB said:

    TOPPING said:

    MaxPB said:

    nichomar said:

    TOPPING said:

    MaxPB said:

    nichomar said:

    Foxy said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Spanish Bombs as a holiday destination?
    You’d be brave to go anywhere out of the UK for a holiday.
    I've got Sicily and Naples booked for August and September respectively. It's not that risky if you can WFH indefinitely. My wife and I were thinking about getting a two or three month lease in Sicily and working remotely from there for a while.
    And I'm guessing that your wife and you are very non-high risk and as long as you don't come back and hug your grandparents at the airport then surely all is good.
    By brave I wasn’t referring to the risk of contacting the virus which I think is low in most of Western Europe. It’s what happens when you get back and find you have no income. As Ian said this morning the plane is the biggest risk.
    Eh? What do you mean by no income? For WFHers it's a no change scenario being quarantined or not. Obviously of your job requires in person attendance then it's a different story and yes, I think I wouldn't consider going overseas in that scenario.
    Although isn't Sicily a failure of imagination? What about Barbados?
    Not in the slightest, Sicily has it all. Amazing beaches, great food, lovely accomodation and incredible wine. It's probably my favourite place to go in the world.
    One of my favourites too. I'm seriously considering a sabbatical. No gap year and working for myself for 12 years has left me hankering for a bit of travelling. Meandering to Sicily, via South of France, Ventimeglia, Florence, Rome and Naples is top of the agenda at the moment. Ending in a long stay there.
    If you've got a year would have to be Asia for me. 5 years for the cost of 1 year in Europe.
    Getting a bit long in the tooth for it now, but I always wanted to travel the Silk Road through Samarkand to China!
    Amazon Prime has a rather good docco series "The Silk Road" by a French telejournalist where he traces it all the way from Venice to Xi'an. In dubbed English.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,718

    rpjs said:

    Syracuse was a Greek colony, if memory serves. So was Saguntum (Spain) and Marseilles (Massilia, originally). As was Taras (later Tarentum). And, of course, Asia Minor was riddled with Greek cities.

    Hence why another location for super greek-alike looking people is Izmir, and other parts of that coast.

    Turkey is cheaper than ever, but it seems to have lost quite a lot of British tourism over the last few years.
    The Greeks actually temporarily occupied Izmir (Smyrna as was) for a short while after WW1, but were driven out by Ataturk's Turkish nationalist revival. The Smyrna campaign was part of the Greek irredentist "Megali idea" which would have included Greece taking pretty much the whole western coast line of Turkey, and Constantinople of course.

    I should imagine that, the neo-Nazis of the Golden Dawn and their ilk aside, the whole thing has little resonance in modern Greece, a century on. However it does persist in the Greek diaspora: my wife has a Greek-American friend from college who told her that her parish priest insisted on referring to Turkey in sermons as "temporarily-occupied Asia Minor".
    Yes, having spent a fair time in Greece, I've heard quite a lot of this. As you say, I I think the chapter is historically closed - the Christian Greeks returned from cities like Smyrna, and many, but not all, of the people living there now look remarkably like descendants of Ionian Greeks who converted to Islam, which I think is what they are.
    I've often wondered similarly about Moslem or Christian Palestinians and the Israelis. Who REALLY has the right to the land? To whose ancestors was it actually 'given'?
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 8,631
    See the tories are being total idiots again.

    2% on delivered goods from online

    a) Wont have any effect because even if the goods were the same price we would still buy them online because we like to have choice, your high street shop might stock 10 different models from 3 different manufacturers to choose from. Online you get a choice about 100 times wider. You also don't have to put up with pimply faced salestaff who don't know their arse from their elbow misleading you as to the best choice because its what gets them most comission or trying to upsell you. You don't have to carry the goods anywhere but get to choose when it will be delivered on the same day often.

    b) It hands starmer the keys to number 10 as it will be hugely unpopular and all he has to do to rack up votes is announce he will abolish it. Who would have thought it Labour the tax cut party.

    80% of the country really doesn't care if River island or whatever goes bust. If they valued it they would use it instead even precovid they were voting with their feet and buying online.

    This is merely a tory tax hike as we all know it won't achieve its stated aim and unless you think that Rishi Sunak is too thick to realise that then it is all it is
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,851
    isam said:

    kinabalu said:

    justin124 said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    On topic: aren't voters in the 2019 Tory gains more invested in "Boris" than the Tory party? So perhaps it's not surprising: given structural antipathy to the Tories in many of these areas, it was only seats where Johnson himself was particularly popular that the Tory candidate won. In traditional Tory seats, by contrast, "Boris" was likely less important as a selling point. A corollary of this is that replacing Johnson mid-term in an effort to bolster Tory support may have the opposite effect in some of these seats. I have a gut feeling that Sunak may be less popular in these seats than in the traditional Tory home counties, but it'd be interesting to see polling on that.
    There's also the Brexit factor at work, although I imagine that will fade as an issue over time, especially if it turns out to be a bit shit, as seems likely.

    Indeed, according to Redfield 2019 Tory voters prefer Boris to Starmer by more than they prefer Sunak to Starmer, only 2019 LD voters prefer Sunak to Starmer by more than they prefer Boris to Starmer and the latter are very posh London and Home Counties centred

    https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voting-intention-22-july/
    One very likely explanation for this is the similar psychological response to a change in buying behaviour, a kind of confirmation bias that is the opposite to buyers remorse. In other words, I have changed who I buy from, away from my traditional brand, and I need to keep telling myself it was the right decision, because part of me tells me it was not. "I DID make the right decision! I DID" The person will look for those reasons why they should convince themselves it was the correct decision. Clever brands will keep marketing to such folk to keep them on board. In political terms Tony Blair was the most recent to achieve this, and before him Margaret Thatcher.

    As I have said many times before, Johnson is no Tony Blair, and he is definitely no Margaret Thatcher. This effect will doubtless melt away long before another GE.
    That explanation doesn't explain why they "bought from him" in the first place.

    There's no swing in these number. The logical thought surely is that the voters in these seats like him . . . because they like him . . . and that's why they voted for him in the first place. Not that they voted for him then decided they like him, because they voted for him.
    You and Nigel are both right. They voted for Johnson because they like him and they say they still like him. The latter could be for one of two reasons. (i) It's too early to have realized the mistake. (ii) They have realized their mistake but are not yet ready to admit it. All the Red Wallers are probably in one or the other camp. We can postulate that a (iii) category - realized the mistake AND saying so - is virtually empty right now. It must be otherwise it would be showing up in the data.

    The key question here - which we can't answer - is what is the split between (i) and (ii). Heavily (i) means good news for the Cons. Their strategy is predicated on the Red Wall still being in a (i) state by the time of the next election - because if these voters have not clocked their mistake by then the chances are they will repeat it. But if (as I hope) there are lots in (ii), Labour are set fair. Why? Because from (ii) it's only a matter of time before they take the decisive step to (iii) - which will duly show up in the polls and more importantly at the ballot box.
    Odd that you don't have category (iv) they haven't made a mistake.

    Anyway Nigel is disagreeing with that, he postulates despite the evidence to the contrary that people voted just because they disliked Corbyn and they never liked Johnson in the first place. Despite the polls saying the opposite.
    There's no need for a category (iv) because in terms of impact it's the same as (i). There is no electoral difference between a Red Waller voting Tory not realizing they are being conned and one who does so positively in the knowledge of being conned - i.e. has not really been conned at all.

    I happen to disagree with Nigel on the 2nd point. I think Johnson is a genuine asset when it comes to elections and I fear this will continue to be the case.
    Overall such voters are probably less educated and quite limited in insight. Over time,though, the reality of Johnson being an utter shyster will percolate through to them - though some will continue to feel affection for him in the way that many Eastenders admired the Kray twins. The London dockers marching to support Enoch Powell in 1968 following his 'rivers of blood' speech also comes to mind.
    I like your 1st analogy. Eastenders = Red Wallers, Johnson = Ronnie Kray. People falling for a raffish persona despite the obvious negatives. That kind of works. It shouldn't do but it does. But the 2nd one doesn't. The dockers marched for Powell out of genuine support for his racist worldview. No raffish persona with Powell at all. Quite the opposite. An introverted intellectual. It was about what he said. He said the day would soon come, if immigration continued unchecked, when the black man would hold the whip over the white man in Britain, and furthermore that this would be a bad thing, as indeed it sounds with the reference to "the whip", and the London dockers agreed. How many of their grandsons are Millwall fans today, I wonder?
    The whole point of the ‘whip hand’ quote was that someone else said it to Powell
    That someone else was (per Powell) a "decent, ordinary fellow Englishman" and it was indicative of what "thousands and hundreds of thousands are saying and thinking" - so I'm not seeing a good reason to assume it was not his view too.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 8,480
    edited July 2020

    rpjs said:

    Syracuse was a Greek colony, if memory serves. So was Saguntum (Spain) and Marseilles (Massilia, originally). As was Taras (later Tarentum). And, of course, Asia Minor was riddled with Greek cities.

    Hence why another location for super greek-alike looking people is Izmir, and other parts of that coast.

    Turkey is cheaper than ever, but it seems to have lost quite a lot of British tourism over the last few years.
    The Greeks actually temporarily occupied Izmir (Smyrna as was) for a short while after WW1, but were driven out by Ataturk's Turkish nationalist revival. The Smyrna campaign was part of the Greek irredentist "Megali idea" which would have included Greece taking pretty much the whole western coast line of Turkey, and Constantinople of course.

    I should imagine that, the neo-Nazis of the Golden Dawn and their ilk aside, the whole thing has little resonance in modern Greece, a century on. However it does persist in the Greek diaspora: my wife has a Greek-American friend from college who told her that her parish priest insisted on referring to Turkey in sermons as "temporarily-occupied Asia Minor".
    Yes, having spent a fair time in Greece, I've heard quite a lot of this. As you say, I I think the chapter is historically closed - the Christian Greeks returned from cities like Smyrna, and many, but not all, of the people living there now look remarkably like descendants of Ionian Greeks who converted to Islam, which I think is what they are.
    I've often wondered similarly about Moslem or Christian Palestinians and the Israelis. Who REALLY has the right to the land? To whose ancestors was it actually 'given'?
    It's an interesting question ; there seem to be genetic similarities between Muslim and Christian Palestinians and some Israelis, and judging by the Cleopatra-like appearance of various people in Izmir / Smyrna, Marmaris and elsewhere, the historical genetic similarities between there and mainland Greece may be pretty strong too.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,575
    Britain apparently has some serious competition for re-location of choice for fleeing Hong Kongers...

    https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2020/07/mark-lutter-on-hong-kong-in-ireland.html
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    kinabalu said:

    isam said:

    kinabalu said:

    justin124 said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    On topic: aren't voters in the 2019 Tory gains more invested in "Boris" than the Tory party? So perhaps it's not surprising: given structural antipathy to the Tories in many of these areas, it was only seats where Johnson himself was particularly popular that the Tory candidate won. In traditional Tory seats, by contrast, "Boris" was likely less important as a selling point. A corollary of this is that replacing Johnson mid-term in an effort to bolster Tory support may have the opposite effect in some of these seats. I have a gut feeling that Sunak may be less popular in these seats than in the traditional Tory home counties, but it'd be interesting to see polling on that.
    There's also the Brexit factor at work, although I imagine that will fade as an issue over time, especially if it turns out to be a bit shit, as seems likely.

    Indeed, according to Redfield 2019 Tory voters prefer Boris to Starmer by more than they prefer Sunak to Starmer, only 2019 LD voters prefer Sunak to Starmer by more than they prefer Boris to Starmer and the latter are very posh London and Home Counties centred

    https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voting-intention-22-july/
    One very likely explanation for this is the similar psychological response to a change in buying behaviour, a kind of confirmation bias that is the opposite to buyers remorse. In other words, I have changed who I buy from, away from my traditional brand, and I need to keep telling myself it was the right decision, because part of me tells me it was not. "I DID make the right decision! I DID" The person will look for those reasons why they should convince themselves it was the correct decision. Clever brands will keep marketing to such folk to keep them on board. In political terms Tony Blair was the most recent to achieve this, and before him Margaret Thatcher.

    As I have said many times before, Johnson is no Tony Blair, and he is definitely no Margaret Thatcher. This effect will doubtless melt away long before another GE.
    That explanation doesn't explain why they "bought from him" in the first place.

    There's no swing in these number. The logical thought surely is that the voters in these seats like him . . . because they like him . . . and that's why they voted for him in the first place. Not that they voted for him then decided they like him, because they voted for him.
    You and Nigel are both right. They voted for Johnson because they like him and they say they still like him. The latter could be for one of two reasons. (i) It's too early to have realized the mistake. (ii) They have realized their mistake but are not yet ready to admit it. All the Red Wallers are probably in one or the other camp. We can postulate that a (iii) category - realized the mistake AND saying so - is virtually empty right now. It must be otherwise it would be showing up in the data.

    The key question here - which we can't answer - is what is the split between (i) and (ii). Heavily (i) means good news for the Cons. Their strategy is predicated on the Red Wall still being in a (i) state by the time of the next election - because if these voters have not clocked their mistake by then the chances are they will repeat it. But if (as I hope) there are lots in (ii), Labour are set fair. Why? Because from (ii) it's only a matter of time before they take the decisive step to (iii) - which will duly show up in the polls and more importantly at the ballot box.
    Odd that you don't have category (iv) they haven't made a mistake.

    Anyway Nigel is disagreeing with that, he postulates despite the evidence to the contrary that people voted just because they disliked Corbyn and they never liked Johnson in the first place. Despite the polls saying the opposite.
    There's no need for a category (iv) because in terms of impact it's the same as (i). There is no electoral difference between a Red Waller voting Tory not realizing they are being conned and one who does so positively in the knowledge of being conned - i.e. has not really been conned at all.

    I happen to disagree with Nigel on the 2nd point. I think Johnson is a genuine asset when it comes to elections and I fear this will continue to be the case.
    Overall such voters are probably less educated and quite limited in insight. Over time,though, the reality of Johnson being an utter shyster will percolate through to them - though some will continue to feel affection for him in the way that many Eastenders admired the Kray twins. The London dockers marching to support Enoch Powell in 1968 following his 'rivers of blood' speech also comes to mind.
    I like your 1st analogy. Eastenders = Red Wallers, Johnson = Ronnie Kray. People falling for a raffish persona despite the obvious negatives. That kind of works. It shouldn't do but it does. But the 2nd one doesn't. The dockers marched for Powell out of genuine support for his racist worldview. No raffish persona with Powell at all. Quite the opposite. An introverted intellectual. It was about what he said. He said the day would soon come, if immigration continued unchecked, when the black man would hold the whip over the white man in Britain, and furthermore that this would be a bad thing, as indeed it sounds with the reference to "the whip", and the London dockers agreed. How many of their grandsons are Millwall fans today, I wonder?
    The whole point of the ‘whip hand’ quote was that someone else said it to Powell
    That someone else was (per Powell) a "decent, ordinary fellow Englishman" and it was indicative of what "thousands and hundreds of thousands are saying and thinking" - so I'm not seeing a good reason to assume it was not his view too.
    Powell kept being told things by anonymous "man on the street" that fortunately had excellent cadence and phrasing to fit into his speeches.

    Such serendipity.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 14,912
    kinabalu said:

    isam said:

    kinabalu said:

    justin124 said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    On topic: aren't voters in the 2019 Tory gains more invested in "Boris" than the Tory party? So perhaps it's not surprising: given structural antipathy to the Tories in many of these areas, it was only seats where Johnson himself was particularly popular that the Tory candidate won. In traditional Tory seats, by contrast, "Boris" was likely less important as a selling point. A corollary of this is that replacing Johnson mid-term in an effort to bolster Tory support may have the opposite effect in some of these seats. I have a gut feeling that Sunak may be less popular in these seats than in the traditional Tory home counties, but it'd be interesting to see polling on that.
    There's also the Brexit factor at work, although I imagine that will fade as an issue over time, especially if it turns out to be a bit shit, as seems likely.

    Indeed, according to Redfield 2019 Tory voters prefer Boris to Starmer by more than they prefer Sunak to Starmer, only 2019 LD voters prefer Sunak to Starmer by more than they prefer Boris to Starmer and the latter are very posh London and Home Counties centred

    https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voting-intention-22-july/
    One very likely explanation for this is the similar psychological response to a change in buying behaviour, a kind of confirmation bias that is the opposite to buyers remorse. In other words, I have changed who I buy from, away from my traditional brand, and I need to keep telling myself it was the right decision, because part of me tells me it was not. "I DID make the right decision! I DID" The person will look for those reasons why they should convince themselves it was the correct decision. Clever brands will keep marketing to such folk to keep them on board. In political terms Tony Blair was the most recent to achieve this, and before him Margaret Thatcher.

    As I have said many times before, Johnson is no Tony Blair, and he is definitely no Margaret Thatcher. This effect will doubtless melt away long before another GE.
    That explanation doesn't explain why they "bought from him" in the first place.

    There's no swing in these number. The logical thought surely is that the voters in these seats like him . . . because they like him . . . and that's why they voted for him in the first place. Not that they voted for him then decided they like him, because they voted for him.
    You and Nigel are both right. They voted for Johnson because they like him and they say they still like him. The latter could be for one of two reasons. (i) It's too early to have realized the mistake. (ii) They have realized their mistake but are not yet ready to admit it. All the Red Wallers are probably in one or the other camp. We can postulate that a (iii) category - realized the mistake AND saying so - is virtually empty right now. It must be otherwise it would be showing up in the data.

    The key question here - which we can't answer - is what is the split between (i) and (ii). Heavily (i) means good news for the Cons. Their strategy is predicated on the Red Wall still being in a (i) state by the time of the next election - because if these voters have not clocked their mistake by then the chances are they will repeat it. But if (as I hope) there are lots in (ii), Labour are set fair. Why? Because from (ii) it's only a matter of time before they take the decisive step to (iii) - which will duly show up in the polls and more importantly at the ballot box.
    Odd that you don't have category (iv) they haven't made a mistake.

    Anyway Nigel is disagreeing with that, he postulates despite the evidence to the contrary that people voted just because they disliked Corbyn and they never liked Johnson in the first place. Despite the polls saying the opposite.
    There's no need for a category (iv) because in terms of impact it's the same as (i). There is no electoral difference between a Red Waller voting Tory not realizing they are being conned and one who does so positively in the knowledge of being conned - i.e. has not really been conned at all.

    I happen to disagree with Nigel on the 2nd point. I think Johnson is a genuine asset when it comes to elections and I fear this will continue to be the case.
    Overall such voters are probably less educated and quite limited in insight. Over time,though, the reality of Johnson being an utter shyster will percolate through to them - though some will continue to feel affection for him in the way that many Eastenders admired the Kray twins. The London dockers marching to support Enoch Powell in 1968 following his 'rivers of blood' speech also comes to mind.
    I like your 1st analogy. Eastenders = Red Wallers, Johnson = Ronnie Kray. People falling for a raffish persona despite the obvious negatives. That kind of works. It shouldn't do but it does. But the 2nd one doesn't. The dockers marched for Powell out of genuine support for his racist worldview. No raffish persona with Powell at all. Quite the opposite. An introverted intellectual. It was about what he said. He said the day would soon come, if immigration continued unchecked, when the black man would hold the whip over the white man in Britain, and furthermore that this would be a bad thing, as indeed it sounds with the reference to "the whip", and the London dockers agreed. How many of their grandsons are Millwall fans today, I wonder?
    The whole point of the ‘whip hand’ quote was that someone else said it to Powell
    That someone else was (per Powell) a "decent, ordinary fellow Englishman" and it was indicative of what "thousands and hundreds of thousands are saying and thinking" - so I'm not seeing a good reason to assume it was not his view too.
    I always thought that comment was quite revealing about Powell's worldview - he couldn't imagine that people could exist without one group holding the "whip hand" over another. Probably got beaten a lot as a child, so much fear and repressed rage in that phrase.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 7,461
    Pagan2 said:

    See the tories are being total idiots again.

    2% on delivered goods from online

    a) Wont have any effect because even if the goods were the same price we would still buy them online because we like to have choice, your high street shop might stock 10 different models from 3 different manufacturers to choose from. Online you get a choice about 100 times wider. You also don't have to put up with pimply faced salestaff who don't know their arse from their elbow misleading you as to the best choice because its what gets them most comission or trying to upsell you. You don't have to carry the goods anywhere but get to choose when it will be delivered on the same day often.

    b) It hands starmer the keys to number 10 as it will be hugely unpopular and all he has to do to rack up votes is announce he will abolish it. Who would have thought it Labour the tax cut party.

    80% of the country really doesn't care if River island or whatever goes bust. If they valued it they would use it instead even precovid they were voting with their feet and buying online.

    This is merely a tory tax hike as we all know it won't achieve its stated aim and unless you think that Rishi Sunak is too thick to realise that then it is all it is

    Wow, you really don't like going out shopping, do you? I suspect in your ideal world you would rarely need to leave your house. I'm not sure that your evidence is that strong; many people still like the social aspect of browsing high street shops, especially those that are not part of the large chains. Surprisingly, I'm with HYUFD on this; we need a more level playing field between online and physical shopping. Though unlike him, I wish it would be that easy for Starmer to get the keys to No. 10.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789
    Alistair said:

    kinabalu said:

    isam said:

    kinabalu said:

    justin124 said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    On topic: aren't voters in the 2019 Tory gains more invested in "Boris" than the Tory party? So perhaps it's not surprising: given structural antipathy to the Tories in many of these areas, it was only seats where Johnson himself was particularly popular that the Tory candidate won. In traditional Tory seats, by contrast, "Boris" was likely less important as a selling point. A corollary of this is that replacing Johnson mid-term in an effort to bolster Tory support may have the opposite effect in some of these seats. I have a gut feeling that Sunak may be less popular in these seats than in the traditional Tory home counties, but it'd be interesting to see polling on that.
    There's also the Brexit factor at work, although I imagine that will fade as an issue over time, especially if it turns out to be a bit shit, as seems likely.

    Indeed, according to Redfield 2019 Tory voters prefer Boris to Starmer by more than they prefer Sunak to Starmer, only 2019 LD voters prefer Sunak to Starmer by more than they prefer Boris to Starmer and the latter are very posh London and Home Counties centred

    https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voting-intention-22-july/
    One very likely explanation for this is the similar psychological response to a change in buying behaviour, a kind of confirmation bias that is the opposite to buyers remorse. In other words, I have changed who I buy from, away from my traditional brand, and I need to keep telling myself it was the right decision, because part of me tells me it was not. "I DID make the right decision! I DID" The person will look for those reasons why they should convince themselves it was the correct decision. Clever brands will keep marketing to such folk to keep them on board. In political terms Tony Blair was the most recent to achieve this, and before him Margaret Thatcher.

    As I have said many times before, Johnson is no Tony Blair, and he is definitely no Margaret Thatcher. This effect will doubtless melt away long before another GE.
    That explanation doesn't explain why they "bought from him" in the first place.

    There's no swing in these number. The logical thought surely is that the voters in these seats like him . . . because they like him . . . and that's why they voted for him in the first place. Not that they voted for him then decided they like him, because they voted for him.
    You and Nigel are both right. They voted for Johnson because they like him and they say they still like him. The latter could be for one of two reasons. (i) It's too early to have realized the mistake. (ii) They have realized their mistake but are not yet ready to admit it. All the Red Wallers are probably in one or the other camp. We can postulate that a (iii) category - realized the mistake AND saying so - is virtually empty right now. It must be otherwise it would be showing up in the data.

    The key question here - which we can't answer - is what is the split between (i) and (ii). Heavily (i) means good news for the Cons. Their strategy is predicated on the Red Wall still being in a (i) state by the time of the next election - because if these voters have not clocked their mistake by then the chances are they will repeat it. But if (as I hope) there are lots in (ii), Labour are set fair. Why? Because from (ii) it's only a matter of time before they take the decisive step to (iii) - which will duly show up in the polls and more importantly at the ballot box.
    Odd that you don't have category (iv) they haven't made a mistake.

    Anyway Nigel is disagreeing with that, he postulates despite the evidence to the contrary that people voted just because they disliked Corbyn and they never liked Johnson in the first place. Despite the polls saying the opposite.
    There's no need for a category (iv) because in terms of impact it's the same as (i). There is no electoral difference between a Red Waller voting Tory not realizing they are being conned and one who does so positively in the knowledge of being conned - i.e. has not really been conned at all.

    I happen to disagree with Nigel on the 2nd point. I think Johnson is a genuine asset when it comes to elections and I fear this will continue to be the case.
    Overall such voters are probably less educated and quite limited in insight. Over time,though, the reality of Johnson being an utter shyster will percolate through to them - though some will continue to feel affection for him in the way that many Eastenders admired the Kray twins. The London dockers marching to support Enoch Powell in 1968 following his 'rivers of blood' speech also comes to mind.
    I like your 1st analogy. Eastenders = Red Wallers, Johnson = Ronnie Kray. People falling for a raffish persona despite the obvious negatives. That kind of works. It shouldn't do but it does. But the 2nd one doesn't. The dockers marched for Powell out of genuine support for his racist worldview. No raffish persona with Powell at all. Quite the opposite. An introverted intellectual. It was about what he said. He said the day would soon come, if immigration continued unchecked, when the black man would hold the whip over the white man in Britain, and furthermore that this would be a bad thing, as indeed it sounds with the reference to "the whip", and the London dockers agreed. How many of their grandsons are Millwall fans today, I wonder?
    The whole point of the ‘whip hand’ quote was that someone else said it to Powell
    That someone else was (per Powell) a "decent, ordinary fellow Englishman" and it was indicative of what "thousands and hundreds of thousands are saying and thinking" - so I'm not seeing a good reason to assume it was not his view too.
    Powell kept being told things by anonymous "man on the street" that fortunately had excellent cadence and phrasing to fit into his speeches.

    Such serendipity.
    "A lot of people are saying..."
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,758

    rpjs said:

    Syracuse was a Greek colony, if memory serves. So was Saguntum (Spain) and Marseilles (Massilia, originally). As was Taras (later Tarentum). And, of course, Asia Minor was riddled with Greek cities.

    Hence why another location for super greek-alike looking people is Izmir, and other parts of that coast.

    Turkey is cheaper than ever, but it seems to have lost quite a lot of British tourism over the last few years.
    The Greeks actually temporarily occupied Izmir (Smyrna as was) for a short while after WW1, but were driven out by Ataturk's Turkish nationalist revival. The Smyrna campaign was part of the Greek irredentist "Megali idea" which would have included Greece taking pretty much the whole western coast line of Turkey, and Constantinople of course.

    I should imagine that, the neo-Nazis of the Golden Dawn and their ilk aside, the whole thing has little resonance in modern Greece, a century on. However it does persist in the Greek diaspora: my wife has a Greek-American friend from college who told her that her parish priest insisted on referring to Turkey in sermons as "temporarily-occupied Asia Minor".
    Yes, having spent a fair time in Greece, I've heard quite a lot of this. As you say, I I think the chapter is historically closed - the Christian Greeks returned from cities like Smyrna, and many, but not all, of the people living there now look remarkably like descendants of Ionian Greeks who converted to Islam, which I think is what they are.
    I've often wondered similarly about Moslem or Christian Palestinians and the Israelis. Who REALLY has the right to the land? To whose ancestors was it actually 'given'?
    That's easy. None of them.

    Trying to disentangle the ethnic history of Palestine is like trying to hold water in your cupped hands with your fingers open.

    However, there have (since the eighth century, at least) always been a mix of Muslims, Jews and Christians there. In the late fourteenth century there was a period of prolonged population decline and by 1500 there were probably only around 200,000 people in the area, the majority (but not an overwhelming majority) Muslim.

    It isn't until the nineteenth century that you start to get conscious attempts to impose cultural revolutions on the area, with the growth of Egyptian nationalism under Mehmet Ali (who was, ironically, Albanian) and the corresponding Ottoman countermoves. But even that wasn't deliberate - more an attempt at control and command.

    Only a tiny handful of people who live in Israel today have any sort of hereditary 'right' to be there - and far from all of them are Muslim. It is one reason why the question of identity in Israel and the Palestinian Territories (and for the matter of that, the Palestinian and Israeli diasporas) is such a vexed one.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 7,461

    Alistair said:

    kinabalu said:

    isam said:

    kinabalu said:

    justin124 said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    On topic: aren't voters in the 2019 Tory gains more invested in "Boris" than the Tory party? So perhaps it's not surprising: given structural antipathy to the Tories in many of these areas, it was only seats where Johnson himself was particularly popular that the Tory candidate won. In traditional Tory seats, by contrast, "Boris" was likely less important as a selling point. A corollary of this is that replacing Johnson mid-term in an effort to bolster Tory support may have the opposite effect in some of these seats. I have a gut feeling that Sunak may be less popular in these seats than in the traditional Tory home counties, but it'd be interesting to see polling on that.
    There's also the Brexit factor at work, although I imagine that will fade as an issue over time, especially if it turns out to be a bit shit, as seems likely.

    Indeed, according to Redfield 2019 Tory voters prefer Boris to Starmer by more than they prefer Sunak to Starmer, only 2019 LD voters prefer Sunak to Starmer by more than they prefer Boris to Starmer and the latter are very posh London and Home Counties centred

    https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voting-intention-22-july/
    One very likely explanation for this is the similar psychological response to a change in buying behaviour, a kind of confirmation bias that is the opposite to buyers remorse. In other words, I have changed who I buy from, away from my traditional brand, and I need to keep telling myself it was the right decision, because part of me tells me it was not. "I DID make the right decision! I DID" The person will look for those reasons why they should convince themselves it was the correct decision. Clever brands will keep marketing to such folk to keep them on board. In political terms Tony Blair was the most recent to achieve this, and before him Margaret Thatcher.

    As I have said many times before, Johnson is no Tony Blair, and he is definitely no Margaret Thatcher. This effect will doubtless melt away long before another GE.
    That explanation doesn't explain why they "bought from him" in the first place.

    There's no swing in these number. The logical thought surely is that the voters in these seats like him . . . because they like him . . . and that's why they voted for him in the first place. Not that they voted for him then decided they like him, because they voted for him.
    You and Nigel are both right. They voted for Johnson because they like him and they say they still like him. The latter could be for one of two reasons. (i) It's too early to have realized the mistake. (ii) They have realized their mistake but are not yet ready to admit it. All the Red Wallers are probably in one or the other camp. We can postulate that a (iii) category - realized the mistake AND saying so - is virtually empty right now. It must be otherwise it would be showing up in the data.

    The key question here - which we can't answer - is what is the split between (i) and (ii). Heavily (i) means good news for the Cons. Their strategy is predicated on the Red Wall still being in a (i) state by the time of the next election - because if these voters have not clocked their mistake by then the chances are they will repeat it. But if (as I hope) there are lots in (ii), Labour are set fair. Why? Because from (ii) it's only a matter of time before they take the decisive step to (iii) - which will duly show up in the polls and more importantly at the ballot box.
    Odd that you don't have category (iv) they haven't made a mistake.

    Anyway Nigel is disagreeing with that, he postulates despite the evidence to the contrary that people voted just because they disliked Corbyn and they never liked Johnson in the first place. Despite the polls saying the opposite.
    There's no need for a category (iv) because in terms of impact it's the same as (i). There is no electoral difference between a Red Waller voting Tory not realizing they are being conned and one who does so positively in the knowledge of being conned - i.e. has not really been conned at all.

    I happen to disagree with Nigel on the 2nd point. I think Johnson is a genuine asset when it comes to elections and I fear this will continue to be the case.
    Overall such voters are probably less educated and quite limited in insight. Over time,though, the reality of Johnson being an utter shyster will percolate through to them - though some will continue to feel affection for him in the way that many Eastenders admired the Kray twins. The London dockers marching to support Enoch Powell in 1968 following his 'rivers of blood' speech also comes to mind.
    I like your 1st analogy. Eastenders = Red Wallers, Johnson = Ronnie Kray. People falling for a raffish persona despite the obvious negatives. That kind of works. It shouldn't do but it does. But the 2nd one doesn't. The dockers marched for Powell out of genuine support for his racist worldview. No raffish persona with Powell at all. Quite the opposite. An introverted intellectual. It was about what he said. He said the day would soon come, if immigration continued unchecked, when the black man would hold the whip over the white man in Britain, and furthermore that this would be a bad thing, as indeed it sounds with the reference to "the whip", and the London dockers agreed. How many of their grandsons are Millwall fans today, I wonder?
    The whole point of the ‘whip hand’ quote was that someone else said it to Powell
    That someone else was (per Powell) a "decent, ordinary fellow Englishman" and it was indicative of what "thousands and hundreds of thousands are saying and thinking" - so I'm not seeing a good reason to assume it was not his view too.
    Powell kept being told things by anonymous "man on the street" that fortunately had excellent cadence and phrasing to fit into his speeches.

    Such serendipity.
    "A lot of people are saying..."
    Or Howard's election slogan: "Are you thinking what we're thinking?".
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Alistair said:

    kinabalu said:

    isam said:

    kinabalu said:

    justin124 said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    On topic: aren't voters in the 2019 Tory gains more invested in "Boris" than the Tory party? So perhaps it's not surprising: given structural antipathy to the Tories in many of these areas, it was only seats where Johnson himself was particularly popular that the Tory candidate won. In traditional Tory seats, by contrast, "Boris" was likely less important as a selling point. A corollary of this is that replacing Johnson mid-term in an effort to bolster Tory support may have the opposite effect in some of these seats. I have a gut feeling that Sunak may be less popular in these seats than in the traditional Tory home counties, but it'd be interesting to see polling on that.
    There's also the Brexit factor at work, although I imagine that will fade as an issue over time, especially if it turns out to be a bit shit, as seems likely.

    Indeed, according to Redfield 2019 Tory voters prefer Boris to Starmer by more than they prefer Sunak to Starmer, only 2019 LD voters prefer Sunak to Starmer by more than they prefer Boris to Starmer and the latter are very posh London and Home Counties centred

    https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voting-intention-22-july/
    One very likely explanation for this is the similar psychological response to a change in buying behaviour, a kind of confirmation bias that is the opposite to buyers remorse. In other words, I have changed who I buy from, away from my traditional brand, and I need to keep telling myself it was the right decision, because part of me tells me it was not. "I DID make the right decision! I DID" The person will look for those reasons why they should convince themselves it was the correct decision. Clever brands will keep marketing to such folk to keep them on board. In political terms Tony Blair was the most recent to achieve this, and before him Margaret Thatcher.

    As I have said many times before, Johnson is no Tony Blair, and he is definitely no Margaret Thatcher. This effect will doubtless melt away long before another GE.
    That explanation doesn't explain why they "bought from him" in the first place.

    There's no swing in these number. The logical thought surely is that the voters in these seats like him . . . because they like him . . . and that's why they voted for him in the first place. Not that they voted for him then decided they like him, because they voted for him.
    You and Nigel are both right. They voted for Johnson because they like him and they say they still like him. The latter could be for one of two reasons. (i) It's too early to have realized the mistake. (ii) They have realized their mistake but are not yet ready to admit it. All the Red Wallers are probably in one or the other camp. We can postulate that a (iii) category - realized the mistake AND saying so - is virtually empty right now. It must be otherwise it would be showing up in the data.

    The key question here - which we can't answer - is what is the split between (i) and (ii). Heavily (i) means good news for the Cons. Their strategy is predicated on the Red Wall still being in a (i) state by the time of the next election - because if these voters have not clocked their mistake by then the chances are they will repeat it. But if (as I hope) there are lots in (ii), Labour are set fair. Why? Because from (ii) it's only a matter of time before they take the decisive step to (iii) - which will duly show up in the polls and more importantly at the ballot box.
    Odd that you don't have category (iv) they haven't made a mistake.

    Anyway Nigel is disagreeing with that, he postulates despite the evidence to the contrary that people voted just because they disliked Corbyn and they never liked Johnson in the first place. Despite the polls saying the opposite.
    There's no need for a category (iv) because in terms of impact it's the same as (i). There is no electoral difference between a Red Waller voting Tory not realizing they are being conned and one who does so positively in the knowledge of being conned - i.e. has not really been conned at all.

    I happen to disagree with Nigel on the 2nd point. I think Johnson is a genuine asset when it comes to elections and I fear this will continue to be the case.
    Overall such voters are probably less educated and quite limited in insight. Over time,though, the reality of Johnson being an utter shyster will percolate through to them - though some will continue to feel affection for him in the way that many Eastenders admired the Kray twins. The London dockers marching to support Enoch Powell in 1968 following his 'rivers of blood' speech also comes to mind.
    I like your 1st analogy. Eastenders = Red Wallers, Johnson = Ronnie Kray. People falling for a raffish persona despite the obvious negatives. That kind of works. It shouldn't do but it does. But the 2nd one doesn't. The dockers marched for Powell out of genuine support for his racist worldview. No raffish persona with Powell at all. Quite the opposite. An introverted intellectual. It was about what he said. He said the day would soon come, if immigration continued unchecked, when the black man would hold the whip over the white man in Britain, and furthermore that this would be a bad thing, as indeed it sounds with the reference to "the whip", and the London dockers agreed. How many of their grandsons are Millwall fans today, I wonder?
    The whole point of the ‘whip hand’ quote was that someone else said it to Powell
    That someone else was (per Powell) a "decent, ordinary fellow Englishman" and it was indicative of what "thousands and hundreds of thousands are saying and thinking" - so I'm not seeing a good reason to assume it was not his view too.
    Powell kept being told things by anonymous "man on the street" that fortunately had excellent cadence and phrasing to fit into his speeches.

    Such serendipity.
    "A lot of people are saying..."
    Or Howard's election slogan: "Are you thinking what we're thinking?".
    To which the electorate replied: "No."
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Pagan2 said:

    See the tories are being total idiots again.

    2% on delivered goods from online

    a) Wont have any effect because even if the goods were the same price we would still buy them online because we like to have choice, your high street shop might stock 10 different models from 3 different manufacturers to choose from. Online you get a choice about 100 times wider. You also don't have to put up with pimply faced salestaff who don't know their arse from their elbow misleading you as to the best choice because its what gets them most comission or trying to upsell you. You don't have to carry the goods anywhere but get to choose when it will be delivered on the same day often.

    b) It hands starmer the keys to number 10 as it will be hugely unpopular and all he has to do to rack up votes is announce he will abolish it. Who would have thought it Labour the tax cut party.

    80% of the country really doesn't care if River island or whatever goes bust. If they valued it they would use it instead even precovid they were voting with their feet and buying online.

    This is merely a tory tax hike as we all know it won't achieve its stated aim and unless you think that Rishi Sunak is too thick to realise that then it is all it is

    Alternatively the government needs money and this is an appropriate way to raise it - and there is not a chance of earth that Labour are going to go into the next election pledging to cut sales taxes.
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