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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Starmer’s getting his lowest approval ratings in the CON seats

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited July 27 in General
imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Starmer’s getting his lowest approval ratings in the CON seats that should be LAB’s main targets

This chart is a follow up to the one on the previous header which looked at the PM’s approval ratings by what happened at GE2019 in groups of constituencies.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 2,187
    Still first , like Boris
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 23,049
    edited July 27

    Still first...

    Only as the site has been configured to prevent me posting firsts.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 20,282
    This doesn't surprise me at all. Starmer is a wet lettuce.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 2,187
    Nigelb said:

    Still first...

    Only as the site has been configured to prevent me posting firsts.
    One time I was first , Robert Smithson deleted my post so that he could be first. It was an outrage!
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 2,069
    Unsurprising, since what speaks to the Labour selectorate isn't likely to charm those who left all that for Boris' Conservatives. Pious, PC, and boring may quicken the pulse of existing fans, but it's not for everyone...
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 23,049

    Nigelb said:

    Still first...

    Only as the site has been configured to prevent me posting firsts.
    One time I was first , Robert Smithson deleted my post so that he could be first. It was an outrage!
    Only the once ?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 12,809
    I guess this is the bacon to PT's eggs.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 82,942
    What we really need is some Ashcroft constituency polling.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 5,206
    Anyone got any bright ideas as to why it is so many countries on the continent seem to be having a panic moment over the dreaded second wave, yet there's no immediate sign of things going horribly wrong over here? Are we, for some reason, following the likes of Spain and Belgium and just a couple of weeks behind, or is there something that Britain is actually doing right that other countries aren't?
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 7,824

    Nigelb said:

    Still first...

    Only as the site has been configured to prevent me posting firsts.
    One time I was first , Robert Smithson deleted my post so that he could be first. It was an outrage!
    Surely there is something in the ECHR about this?

    Or does it no longer apply now that we are out of the EU?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 55,331

    Nigelb said:

    Still first...

    Only as the site has been configured to prevent me posting firsts.
    One time I was first , Robert Smithson deleted my post so that he could be first. It was an outrage!
    You must see such attention in itself as an honour. Or else!
  • RobDRobD Posts: 47,661

    Nigelb said:

    Still first...

    Only as the site has been configured to prevent me posting firsts.
    One time I was first , Robert Smithson deleted my post so that he could be first. It was an outrage!
    Surely there is something in the ECHR about this?

    Or does it no longer apply now that we are out of the EU?
    ECHR totally separate from the EU. ;)
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 1,114
    Polling shows something similar to US post-2016, namely that voters who were once part of the Democratic working class base but who defected to Trumpsky are NOT likely to desert him anytime soon. Or at least NOT among the mostly likely.

    Think this is part of tipping-point psychology. When voters change their basic voting intention away from a traditional allegiance, in a way that evidence (polling, demographics, electoral trends) shows has been building for some time - well, they simply are NOT going to switch back due to some bumps, or even humongous potholes - down the road they've recently chosen.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 47,661
    Can a party registered in Bath stand in Scottish elections?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 34,369
    Breaking.

    UK extends quarantine to the whole of Spain including the Balearics and Canary Islands
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 6,454
    edited July 27
    Another impeccably impartial article by Professor Matthew Goodwin.

    "Why Boris Johnson keeps on winning
    Despite a global pandemic and economic shutdown, the PM's popularity just won't wane"

    https://unherd.com/2020/07/why-boris-johnson-just-keeps-on-winning/
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 1,114
    As with Joe Biden, future success for Keir Starmer lies NOT in winning back all of the working-class, traditional-base voters lost to the opposition, but rather in gaining back a PORTION of this vote, while at the same time making GREATER advances with middle-class, suburban voters.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 20,282

    Anyone got any bright ideas as to why it is so many countries on the continent seem to be having a panic moment over the dreaded second wave, yet there's no immediate sign of things going horribly wrong over here? Are we, for some reason, following the likes of Spain and Belgium and just a couple of weeks behind, or is there something that Britain is actually doing right that other countries aren't?

    Lots and lots of testing. For once our strategy might actually be paying off.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 47,661
    MaxPB said:

    Anyone got any bright ideas as to why it is so many countries on the continent seem to be having a panic moment over the dreaded second wave, yet there's no immediate sign of things going horribly wrong over here? Are we, for some reason, following the likes of Spain and Belgium and just a couple of weeks behind, or is there something that Britain is actually doing right that other countries aren't?

    Lots and lots of testing. For once our strategy might actually be paying off.
    Also who wants to go to the UK on holiday?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 20,282
    Isn't he English and doesn't he live in Bath? Seems a bit odd.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 2,523
    edited July 27

    Breaking.

    UK extends quarantine to the whole of Spain including the Balearics and Canary Islands

    And breaking the Spanish tourist industry and seasonal economy for a year.
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 2,687
    RobD said:

    Nigelb said:

    Still first...

    Only as the site has been configured to prevent me posting firsts.
    One time I was first , Robert Smithson deleted my post so that he could be first. It was an outrage!
    Surely there is something in the ECHR about this?

    Or does it no longer apply now that we are out of the EU?
    ECHR totally separate from the EU. ;)
    rcs is in California though, so you'll have to see if there's anything in the Bill of Rights that might help.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 20,282
    RobD said:

    MaxPB said:

    Anyone got any bright ideas as to why it is so many countries on the continent seem to be having a panic moment over the dreaded second wave, yet there's no immediate sign of things going horribly wrong over here? Are we, for some reason, following the likes of Spain and Belgium and just a couple of weeks behind, or is there something that Britain is actually doing right that other countries aren't?

    Lots and lots of testing. For once our strategy might actually be paying off.
    Also who wants to go to the UK on holiday?
    True, why come to London when all of the restaurants, bars and pubs are closed or just boring.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 34,166
    So Starmer has higher net approval ratings in the seats that Labour lost in 2019 than Johnson does?
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 1,114
    Why not turn Isle of Man into permanent party island for Brits? Bring in thousands of sun lamps, make the ferries one-way - problem solved!
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 23,049
    A very interesting Twitter thread on this paper by one of the authors:
    Longitudinal analyses reveal immunological misfiring in severe COVID-19
    https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2588-y



  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 6,023
    MaxPB said:

    Isn't he English and doesn't he live in Bath? Seems a bit odd.
    He's from Bathgate in West Lothian.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 30,103
    edited July 27
    MaxPB said:

    Isn't he English and doesn't he live in Bath? Seems a bit odd.
    He lives in Bath, but he is Scottish.

    He is also a nasty, stuck up, hate filled and abusive idiot, Farage with a smaller brain.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stuart_Campbell_(game_journalist)
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 23,049
    MaxPB said:

    Anyone got any bright ideas as to why it is so many countries on the continent seem to be having a panic moment over the dreaded second wave, yet there's no immediate sign of things going horribly wrong over here? Are we, for some reason, following the likes of Spain and Belgium and just a couple of weeks behind, or is there something that Britain is actually doing right that other countries aren't?

    Lots and lots of testing. For once our strategy might actually be paying off.
    Also, perhaps, this ?

  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 5,764
    MaxPB said:

    Anyone got any bright ideas as to why it is so many countries on the continent seem to be having a panic moment over the dreaded second wave, yet there's no immediate sign of things going horribly wrong over here? Are we, for some reason, following the likes of Spain and Belgium and just a couple of weeks behind, or is there something that Britain is actually doing right that other countries aren't?

    Lots and lots of testing. For once our strategy might actually be paying off.
    We hope....
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 6,023
    RobD said:

    Can a party registered in Bath stand in Scottish elections?
    One might ask the same of any Unionist party, and why the legislation passed by Westminster specifically exempts the word "Scottish" from the regulations concerning fair description of parties on the ballot papers in Scotland.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 23,049
    rpjs said:

    RobD said:

    Nigelb said:

    Still first...

    Only as the site has been configured to prevent me posting firsts.
    One time I was first , Robert Smithson deleted my post so that he could be first. It was an outrage!
    Surely there is something in the ECHR about this?

    Or does it no longer apply now that we are out of the EU?
    ECHR totally separate from the EU. ;)
    rcs is in California though, so you'll have to see if there's anything in the Bill of Rights that might help.
    But his actions are, literally, the First Amendment....
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 34,369

    Breaking.

    UK extends quarantine to the whole of Spain including the Balearics and Canary Islands

    And breaking the Spanish tourist industry and seasonal economy for a year.
    Maybe but covid is responsible and not HMG which is acting, as so often demanded, quickly
  • But hold on isn't Starmer rated higher than Johnson in Tory gains from Labour?
  • Nigelb said:

    Still first...

    Only as the site has been configured to prevent me posting firsts.
    One time I was first , Robert Smithson deleted my post so that he could be first. It was an outrage!
    And nothing of value was lost.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 6,023
    edited July 27

    Breaking.

    UK extends quarantine to the whole of Spain including the Balearics and Canary Islands

    And breaking the Spanish tourist industry and seasonal economy for a year.
    Maybe but covid is responsible and not HMG which is acting, as so often demanded, quickly
    You were complaining bitterly - and very recently - whern the Scottish Government was reluctant to withdraw quarantine on people [edit] travelling from Spain.

    Are you not now going to praise them for their foresight?
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 34,166
    I was in London for the first time since February this weekend. It was much, much quieter than usual, of course, but in the centre of town there were still quite a few people around, bars were open and social distancing was entirely non-existent.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 2,885
    MaxPB said:

    RobD said:

    MaxPB said:

    Anyone got any bright ideas as to why it is so many countries on the continent seem to be having a panic moment over the dreaded second wave, yet there's no immediate sign of things going horribly wrong over here? Are we, for some reason, following the likes of Spain and Belgium and just a couple of weeks behind, or is there something that Britain is actually doing right that other countries aren't?

    Lots and lots of testing. For once our strategy might actually be paying off.
    Also who wants to go to the UK on holiday?
    True, why come to London when all of the restaurants, bars and pubs are closed or just boring.
    I was thinking about a short trip to London. What`s it like at the moment? Aren`t restaurants, cafes and bars open?
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 7,824
    RobD said:

    Nigelb said:

    Still first...

    Only as the site has been configured to prevent me posting firsts.
    One time I was first , Robert Smithson deleted my post so that he could be first. It was an outrage!
    Surely there is something in the ECHR about this?

    Or does it no longer apply now that we are out of the EU?
    ECHR totally separate from the EU. ;)
    Oh, I thought that was one of the oppressive burdens we were going to shrug off.
  • As with Joe Biden, future success for Keir Starmer lies NOT in winning back all of the working-class, traditional-base voters lost to the opposition, but rather in gaining back a PORTION of this vote, while at the same time making GREATER advances with middle-class, suburban voters.

    This is why he's going for seats in the South IMHO
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 34,166

    But hold on isn't Starmer rated higher than Johnson in Tory gains from Labour?

    Yep - that's what it looks like. His lead is smaller in the Red Wall seats, but it is still pretty decent (around 8 or 9 points, I think).

  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 24,155
    Nigelb said:

    rpjs said:

    RobD said:

    Nigelb said:

    Still first...

    Only as the site has been configured to prevent me posting firsts.
    One time I was first , Robert Smithson deleted my post so that he could be first. It was an outrage!
    Surely there is something in the ECHR about this?

    Or does it no longer apply now that we are out of the EU?
    ECHR totally separate from the EU. ;)
    rcs is in California though, so you'll have to see if there's anything in the Bill of Rights that might help.
    But his actions are, literally, the First Amendment....
    Regarding those papers. Have they controlled for all the co-morbidities? Is this Covid on its own or with another condition or nothing to do with it?
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 6,205

    Why not turn Isle of Man into permanent party island for Brits? Bring in thousands of sun lamps, make the ferries one-way - problem solved!

    I don't think the Isle of Man is part of the UK
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 24,155
    Nigelb said:

    MaxPB said:

    Anyone got any bright ideas as to why it is so many countries on the continent seem to be having a panic moment over the dreaded second wave, yet there's no immediate sign of things going horribly wrong over here? Are we, for some reason, following the likes of Spain and Belgium and just a couple of weeks behind, or is there something that Britain is actually doing right that other countries aren't?

    Lots and lots of testing. For once our strategy might actually be paying off.
    Also, perhaps, this ?

    Given the demographics of those most at risk and those most likely to want to go to a bar or restaurant this could be the latter group snapping and saying "enough!"
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 6,205

    So Starmer has higher net approval ratings in the seats that Labour lost in 2019 than Johnson does?

    Yes. Starmer is beating Johnson by quite some margin
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 34,369
    edited July 27
    Carnyx said:

    Breaking.

    UK extends quarantine to the whole of Spain including the Balearics and Canary Islands

    And breaking the Spanish tourist industry and seasonal economy for a year.
    Maybe but covid is responsible and not HMG which is acting, as so often demanded, quickly
    You were complaining bitterly - and very recently - whern the Scottish Government was reluctant to withdraw quarantine on people [edit] travelling from Spain.

    Are you not now going to praise them for their foresight?
    Hardly when Sturgeon followed England in lifting the ban

    Of course she has now had to close it

    Also I see she is having problems over conflicting meetings with Salmond and statements in the Scots Parliament
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 34,166
    What's the travel advice with regard to Gibraltar? It has an open border with Spain. Why would you decreee quaratine from Andalucia but not from there?
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 7,824

    Nigelb said:

    Still first...

    Only as the site has been configured to prevent me posting firsts.
    One time I was first , Robert Smithson deleted my post so that he could be first. It was an outrage!
    And nothing of value was lost.
    Very snarky! Go and stand in the corner.

    ConHome next time.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 26,232
    Stocky said:



    MaxPB said:

    RobD said:

    MaxPB said:

    Anyone got any bright ideas as to why it is so many countries on the continent seem to be having a panic moment over the dreaded second wave, yet there's no immediate sign of things going horribly wrong over here? Are we, for some reason, following the likes of Spain and Belgium and just a couple of weeks behind, or is there something that Britain is actually doing right that other countries aren't?

    Lots and lots of testing. For once our strategy might actually be paying off.
    Also who wants to go to the UK on holiday?
    True, why come to London when all of the restaurants, bars and pubs are closed or just boring.
    I was thinking about a short trip to London. What`s it like at the moment? Aren`t restaurants, cafes and bars open?
    Some are, but many aren't, depending somewhat on area. The areas where people live (as opposed to areas which are mainly offices or the tourist/theatreland centre) are more likely to have places open.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 10,055
    FTP
    SeaShantyIrish2 said:
    ' OT - Think this poll shows something similar to US post-2016, namely that voters who were once part of the Democratic working class base but who defected to Trumpsky are NOT likely to desert him anytime soon. Or at least NOT among the mostly likely.

    Think this is part of tipping-point psychology. When voters change their basic voting intention away from a traditional allegiance, in a way that evidence (polling, demographics, electoral trends) shows has been building for some time - well, they simply are NOT going to switch back due to some bumps, or even humongous potholes - down the road they've recently chosen.'

    But a lot of Republicans voted for LBJ in 1964 yet reverted to supporting Nixon in 1968 and 1972.Many Reagan Democrats voted for Clinton in 1992 and 1996.In the UK many Tories who voted Labour in 1966 were Tory voters again in 1970.Former Tories who switched to Labour in 1997 and 2001 have generally long returned to their original home.I personally know several people who voted for Thatcher in 1979 but never voted Tory again.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 34,166
    Stocky said:



    MaxPB said:

    RobD said:

    MaxPB said:

    Anyone got any bright ideas as to why it is so many countries on the continent seem to be having a panic moment over the dreaded second wave, yet there's no immediate sign of things going horribly wrong over here? Are we, for some reason, following the likes of Spain and Belgium and just a couple of weeks behind, or is there something that Britain is actually doing right that other countries aren't?

    Lots and lots of testing. For once our strategy might actually be paying off.
    Also who wants to go to the UK on holiday?
    True, why come to London when all of the restaurants, bars and pubs are closed or just boring.
    I was thinking about a short trip to London. What`s it like at the moment? Aren`t restaurants, cafes and bars open?

    Most seemed to be in the centre of town on Saturday afternoon.

  • StockyStocky Posts: 2,885

    Stocky said:



    MaxPB said:

    RobD said:

    MaxPB said:

    Anyone got any bright ideas as to why it is so many countries on the continent seem to be having a panic moment over the dreaded second wave, yet there's no immediate sign of things going horribly wrong over here? Are we, for some reason, following the likes of Spain and Belgium and just a couple of weeks behind, or is there something that Britain is actually doing right that other countries aren't?

    Lots and lots of testing. For once our strategy might actually be paying off.
    Also who wants to go to the UK on holiday?
    True, why come to London when all of the restaurants, bars and pubs are closed or just boring.
    I was thinking about a short trip to London. What`s it like at the moment? Aren`t restaurants, cafes and bars open?
    Some are, but many aren't, depending somewhat on area. The areas where people live (as opposed to areas which are mainly offices or the tourist/theatreland centre) are more likely to have places open.
    Oh, that`s disappointing. I thought it may be a good opportunity to come with the family and see the usual touristy sights without the crowds.
  • So Starmer has higher net approval ratings in the seats that Labour lost in 2019 than Johnson does?

    Yes. Starmer is beating Johnson by quite some margin
    So isn't this a good thing, what am I missing
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 26,232
    edited July 27
    Stocky said:

    Stocky said:



    MaxPB said:

    RobD said:

    MaxPB said:

    Anyone got any bright ideas as to why it is so many countries on the continent seem to be having a panic moment over the dreaded second wave, yet there's no immediate sign of things going horribly wrong over here? Are we, for some reason, following the likes of Spain and Belgium and just a couple of weeks behind, or is there something that Britain is actually doing right that other countries aren't?

    Lots and lots of testing. For once our strategy might actually be paying off.
    Also who wants to go to the UK on holiday?
    True, why come to London when all of the restaurants, bars and pubs are closed or just boring.
    I was thinking about a short trip to London. What`s it like at the moment? Aren`t restaurants, cafes and bars open?
    Some are, but many aren't, depending somewhat on area. The areas where people live (as opposed to areas which are mainly offices or the tourist/theatreland centre) are more likely to have places open.
    Oh, that`s disappointing. I thought it may be a good opportunity to come with the family and see the usual touristy sights without the crowds.
    You can, but you need to do a bit of planning - book restaurants in advance and so on:

    https://www.hot-dinners.com/202006229633/Gastroblog/Latest-news/london-restaurants-reopening-dine-in-alfresco-terrace-seating-reservations

    Edit: And of course visiting museums and art galleries is a bit tricky. Some are open but you have to book a slot in advance, and they get booked up very quickly.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 34,166
    No quarantione from Gibraltar, it looks like:

  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 6,166

    Anyone got any bright ideas as to why it is so many countries on the continent seem to be having a panic moment over the dreaded second wave, yet there's no immediate sign of things going horribly wrong over here? Are we, for some reason, following the likes of Spain and Belgium and just a couple of weeks behind, or is there something that Britain is actually doing right that other countries aren't?

    Latest data shows R hovering above 1 and reported cases very slowly increasing.
    No sign of a surge or second wave - just a slight swell.



  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 24,155
    Stocky said:

    Stocky said:



    MaxPB said:

    RobD said:

    MaxPB said:

    Anyone got any bright ideas as to why it is so many countries on the continent seem to be having a panic moment over the dreaded second wave, yet there's no immediate sign of things going horribly wrong over here? Are we, for some reason, following the likes of Spain and Belgium and just a couple of weeks behind, or is there something that Britain is actually doing right that other countries aren't?

    Lots and lots of testing. For once our strategy might actually be paying off.
    Also who wants to go to the UK on holiday?
    True, why come to London when all of the restaurants, bars and pubs are closed or just boring.
    I was thinking about a short trip to London. What`s it like at the moment? Aren`t restaurants, cafes and bars open?
    Some are, but many aren't, depending somewhat on area. The areas where people live (as opposed to areas which are mainly offices or the tourist/theatreland centre) are more likely to have places open.
    Oh, that`s disappointing. I thought it may be a good opportunity to come with the family and see the usual touristy sights without the crowds.
    I think that was 2-3 months ago. Now it's teeming. As are most places.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 24,155

    So Starmer has higher net approval ratings in the seats that Labour lost in 2019 than Johnson does?

    Yes. Starmer is beating Johnson by quite some margin
    So isn't this a good thing, what am I missing
    You're not a PB Tory.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 47,661

    No quarantione from Gibraltar, it looks like:

    Are there outbreaks in Gibraltar too?
  • TOPPING said:

    So Starmer has higher net approval ratings in the seats that Labour lost in 2019 than Johnson does?

    Yes. Starmer is beating Johnson by quite some margin
    So isn't this a good thing, what am I missing
    You're not a PB Tory.
    Best compliment I've received all day <3
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 7,824
    justin124 said:

    FTP
    SeaShantyIrish2 said:
    ' OT - Think this poll shows something similar to US post-2016, namely that voters who were once part of the Democratic working class base but who defected to Trumpsky are NOT likely to desert him anytime soon. Or at least NOT among the mostly likely.

    Think this is part of tipping-point psychology. When voters change their basic voting intention away from a traditional allegiance, in a way that evidence (polling, demographics, electoral trends) shows has been building for some time - well, they simply are NOT going to switch back due to some bumps, or even humongous potholes - down the road they've recently chosen.'

    But a lot of Republicans voted for LBJ in 1964 yet reverted to supporting Nixon in 1968 and 1972.Many Reagan Democrats voted for Clinton in 1992 and 1996.In the UK many Tories who voted Labour in 1966 were Tory voters again in 1970.Former Tories who switched to Labour in 1997 and 2001 have generally long returned to their original home.I personally know several people who voted for Thatcher in 1979 but never voted Tory again.

    Republicanism and Trumpism are not the same thing and it is highly questionable how much overlap there is.

    I suspect a lot of traditional Republicans will not support Trump this time round even if they did last time. The prospect of four years of Biden would not worry them as much as another four years of Trump.

    Unless there is some dramatic development over the next 100 days, Joe is going to walk it.
  • Unsurprising, since what speaks to the Labour selectorate isn't likely to charm those who left all that for Boris' Conservatives. Pious, PC, and boring may quicken the pulse of existing fans, but it's not for everyone...

    This is nonsense though, Starmer is polling better than Johnson in these seats.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 34,166
    Stocky said:

    Stocky said:



    MaxPB said:

    RobD said:

    MaxPB said:

    Anyone got any bright ideas as to why it is so many countries on the continent seem to be having a panic moment over the dreaded second wave, yet there's no immediate sign of things going horribly wrong over here? Are we, for some reason, following the likes of Spain and Belgium and just a couple of weeks behind, or is there something that Britain is actually doing right that other countries aren't?

    Lots and lots of testing. For once our strategy might actually be paying off.
    Also who wants to go to the UK on holiday?
    True, why come to London when all of the restaurants, bars and pubs are closed or just boring.
    I was thinking about a short trip to London. What`s it like at the moment? Aren`t restaurants, cafes and bars open?
    Some are, but many aren't, depending somewhat on area. The areas where people live (as opposed to areas which are mainly offices or the tourist/theatreland centre) are more likely to have places open.
    Oh, that`s disappointing. I thought it may be a good opportunity to come with the family and see the usual touristy sights without the crowds.

    We did exactly that on Saturday. Walked from Farringdon (where the company HQ is) to St Paul's, across the Millennium Bridge, down the Thames path to Westminster, up Whitehall to Trafalgar Square into Chinatown across to Soho and then Oxford Circus. Busy in places, no mass crowds. Lots of bars and restaurants open.

  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 5,764
    edited July 27
    Barnesian said:

    Anyone got any bright ideas as to why it is so many countries on the continent seem to be having a panic moment over the dreaded second wave, yet there's no immediate sign of things going horribly wrong over here? Are we, for some reason, following the likes of Spain and Belgium and just a couple of weeks behind, or is there something that Britain is actually doing right that other countries aren't?

    Latest data shows R hovering above 1 and reported cases very slowly increasing.
    No sign of a surge or second wave - just a slight swell.



    That is based on the published testing result, I believe.

    Which Pillar 1 + Pillar2.

    So it includes all the carpet bombing testing in Leicester and elsewhere.

    Until we get more detail on this, we can't say if the apparently flat case numbers is from a genuinely flat rate of infection or that the extra testing is finding more cases.

    Given that the official R estimates are lower, it suggests the latter.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 34,166
    RobD said:

    No quarantione from Gibraltar, it looks like:

    Are there outbreaks in Gibraltar too?

    There is an open border with Spain.

  • @TOPPING How's it going today mate
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 1,114
    justin124 said:

    FTP
    SeaShantyIrish2 said:
    ' OT - Think this poll shows something similar to US post-2016, namely that voters who were once part of the Democratic working class base but who defected to Trumpsky are NOT likely to desert him anytime soon. Or at least NOT among the mostly likely.

    Think this is part of tipping-point psychology. When voters change their basic voting intention away from a traditional allegiance, in a way that evidence (polling, demographics, electoral trends) shows has been building for some time - well, they simply are NOT going to switch back due to some bumps, or even humongous potholes - down the road they've recently chosen.'

    But a lot of Republicans voted for LBJ in 1964 yet reverted to supporting Nixon in 1968 and 1972.Many Reagan Democrats voted for Clinton in 1992 and 1996.In the UK many Tories who voted Labour in 1966 were Tory voters again in 1970.Former Tories who switched to Labour in 1997 and 2001 have generally long returned to their original home.I personally know several people who voted for Thatcher in 1979 but never voted Tory again.

    You forgot to mention Eisenhower Democrats in 1952 & 1956 who (not all but most) voted for Kennedy in 1960.

    In this case, as with Reagan Democrats, process of return took MORE than one election. AND not all returned.

    As for 1964, think that was special case, as Goldwater was so right-wing (certainly rhetorically) for example re: civil rights and esp. nuclear weapons, that he drove millions of Republicans (reluctantly) into LBJ's camp - similar to how McGovern was so left-wing in 1972 that millions of Democrats (for example head of AFL-CIO) voted (reluctantly) for Nixon.

    Re: British examples, also took more than one election to return. And again, not all have, not hardly.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 24,155

    @TOPPING How's it going today mate

    Going well thanks. Quite busy atm so flitting in and out here.

    All well with you I hope.
  • TOPPING said:

    @TOPPING How's it going today mate

    Going well thanks. Quite busy atm so flitting in and out here.

    All well with you I hope.
    Not bad, long day with work today but doing okay besides that.

    How's the weather on your side, it's been pissing it down here all day
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 1,114

    justin124 said:

    FTP
    SeaShantyIrish2 said:
    ' OT - Think this poll shows something similar to US post-2016, namely that voters who were once part of the Democratic working class base but who defected to Trumpsky are NOT likely to desert him anytime soon. Or at least NOT among the mostly likely.

    Think this is part of tipping-point psychology. When voters change their basic voting intention away from a traditional allegiance, in a way that evidence (polling, demographics, electoral trends) shows has been building for some time - well, they simply are NOT going to switch back due to some bumps, or even humongous potholes - down the road they've recently chosen.'

    But a lot of Republicans voted for LBJ in 1964 yet reverted to supporting Nixon in 1968 and 1972.Many Reagan Democrats voted for Clinton in 1992 and 1996.In the UK many Tories who voted Labour in 1966 were Tory voters again in 1970.Former Tories who switched to Labour in 1997 and 2001 have generally long returned to their original home.I personally know several people who voted for Thatcher in 1979 but never voted Tory again.

    Republicanism and Trumpism are not the same thing and it is highly questionable how much overlap there is.

    I suspect a lot of traditional Republicans will not support Trump this time round even if they did last time. The prospect of four years of Biden would not worry them as much as another four years of Trump.

    Unless there is some dramatic development over the next 100 days, Joe is going to walk it.
    Drift of suburban, highly-educated, higher-income Republicans away from GOP has been going on for decades. Trumpsky's wretched record has exacerbated this trend.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 7,824
    TOPPING said:

    @TOPPING How's it going today mate

    Going well thanks. Quite busy atm so flitting in and out here.

    All well with you I hope.
    Is this a private love-in or can anybody join in?
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 1,114

    TOPPING said:

    @TOPPING How's it going today mate

    Going well thanks. Quite busy atm so flitting in and out here.

    All well with you I hope.
    Is this a private love-in or can anybody join in?
    You really ARE a swing voter!
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 23,049
    edited July 27
    TOPPING said:

    Nigelb said:

    rpjs said:

    RobD said:

    Nigelb said:

    Still first...

    Only as the site has been configured to prevent me posting firsts.
    One time I was first , Robert Smithson deleted my post so that he could be first. It was an outrage!
    Surely there is something in the ECHR about this?

    Or does it no longer apply now that we are out of the EU?
    ECHR totally separate from the EU. ;)
    rcs is in California though, so you'll have to see if there's anything in the Bill of Rights that might help.
    But his actions are, literally, the First Amendment....
    Regarding (edit) that paper. Have they controlled for all the co-morbidities? Is this Covid on its own or with another condition or nothing to do with it?
    From the results (which were unusual...eosinophils etc) it would seem to be Covid, as if it were down to disparate underlying conditions, you'd expect results all over the place, rather than the tightly bunched sets of highly unusual results they found.

    Of course there were underlying conditions for many of the patients (though not all, by any means), as they were looking at patients with severe disease.

    The demographic information is in (edit) Extended Data Table 1 | Basic Demographics for IMPACT Cohort:
    https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2588-y_reference.pdf

    (edit) & btw, you failed to appreciate my awesome pun.
  • TOPPING said:

    @TOPPING How's it going today mate

    Going well thanks. Quite busy atm so flitting in and out here.

    All well with you I hope.
    Is this a private love-in or can anybody join in?
    How are you doing mate?
  • TOPPING said:

    @TOPPING How's it going today mate

    Going well thanks. Quite busy atm so flitting in and out here.

    All well with you I hope.
    Is this a private love-in or can anybody join in?
    You really ARE a swing voter!
    All good on your side?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 24,155
    Horrible day here. Wind rain you name it.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 24,155
    Nigelb said:

    TOPPING said:

    Nigelb said:

    rpjs said:

    RobD said:

    Nigelb said:

    Still first...

    Only as the site has been configured to prevent me posting firsts.
    One time I was first , Robert Smithson deleted my post so that he could be first. It was an outrage!
    Surely there is something in the ECHR about this?

    Or does it no longer apply now that we are out of the EU?
    ECHR totally separate from the EU. ;)
    rcs is in California though, so you'll have to see if there's anything in the Bill of Rights that might help.
    But his actions are, literally, the First Amendment....
    Regarding (edit) that paper. Have they controlled for all the co-morbidities? Is this Covid on its own or with another condition or nothing to do with it?
    From the results (which were unusual...eosinophils etc) it would seem to be Covid, as if it were down to disparate underlying conditions, you'd expect results all over the place, rather than the tightly bunched sets of highly unusual results they found.

    Of course there were underlying conditions for many of the patients (though not all, by any means), as they were looking at patients with severe disease.

    The demographic information is in Appendix 1, I think:
    https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2588-y_reference.pdf

    (edit) & btw, you failed to appreciate my awesome pun.
    Thanks
  • RobDRobD Posts: 47,661

    RobD said:

    No quarantione from Gibraltar, it looks like:

    Are there outbreaks in Gibraltar too?

    There is an open border with Spain.

    Is it the only such place?
  • TresTres Posts: 137
    MaxPB said:

    Isn't he English and doesn't he live in Bath? Seems a bit odd.
    He's not English ffs. Aberdeen fan so gets a pass from me.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 82,942
    Tres said:

    MaxPB said:

    Isn't he English and doesn't he live in Bath? Seems a bit odd.
    He's not English ffs. Aberdeen fan so gets a pass from me.
    He's a nob end.

    https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/uk-world-news/wings-over-scotland-blogger-slammed-7845782
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 1,114
    How many PBers are aware (before this post) that the Lord Mayor of Dublin is Chinese?

    Hazel Chu, native Dub & Green Party member, has been LM since May 2019.

    Can remember when I was a kid, my Irish American uncle telling me - with pride - that Dublin had a Jewish Lord Mayor - Robert Briscoe (1955-56, 1961-62)
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 6,166

    Barnesian said:

    Anyone got any bright ideas as to why it is so many countries on the continent seem to be having a panic moment over the dreaded second wave, yet there's no immediate sign of things going horribly wrong over here? Are we, for some reason, following the likes of Spain and Belgium and just a couple of weeks behind, or is there something that Britain is actually doing right that other countries aren't?

    Latest data shows R hovering above 1 and reported cases very slowly increasing.
    No sign of a surge or second wave - just a slight swell.



    That is based on the published testing result, I believe.

    Which Pillar 1 + Pillar2.

    So it includes all the carpet bombing testing in Leicester and elsewhere.

    Until we get more detail on this, we can't say if the apparently flat case numbers is from a genuinely flat rate of infection or that the extra testing is finding more cases.

    Given that the official R estimates are lower, it suggests the latter.
    The carpet bombing testing in Leicester and elsewhere is because there are more cases there so the testing will find more cases.

    The modelling of this is very complex as I'm sure you know, and I'm not competent to do it.
    You have taken the approach of "show them the data" which is really useful in identifying hot spots and progress within them but dosn't give a feel for the overall picture.
    I have taken a simplistic and transparent approach that gives a big picture but might be over-estimating R and progress with reported cases for the reasons you give. Let's hope you are right.
    I described it as a "slight swell". I'm watching it closely to get an early indication if a bigger wave is approaching. No sign of it yet. It was a response to a question from Black_Rook.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 24,155
    Nigelb said:

    TOPPING said:

    Nigelb said:

    rpjs said:

    RobD said:

    Nigelb said:

    Still first...

    Only as the site has been configured to prevent me posting firsts.
    One time I was first , Robert Smithson deleted my post so that he could be first. It was an outrage!
    Surely there is something in the ECHR about this?

    Or does it no longer apply now that we are out of the EU?
    ECHR totally separate from the EU. ;)
    rcs is in California though, so you'll have to see if there's anything in the Bill of Rights that might help.
    But his actions are, literally, the First Amendment....
    Regarding (edit) that paper. Have they controlled for all the co-morbidities? Is this Covid on its own or with another condition or nothing to do with it?
    From the results (which were unusual...eosinophils etc) it would seem to be Covid, as if it were down to disparate underlying conditions, you'd expect results all over the place, rather than the tightly bunched sets of highly unusual results they found.

    Of course there were underlying conditions for many of the patients (though not all, by any means), as they were looking at patients with severe disease.

    The demographic information is in (edit) Extended Data Table 1 | Basic Demographics for IMPACT Cohort:
    https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2588-y_reference.pdf

    (edit) & btw, you failed to appreciate my awesome pun.
    I told you I was rubbish at crosswords and pun (recognition).
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 30,103
    If anyone wants ‘Corbynites remain utterly fucking deluded’ part 94b, here is an amazing article by Rachel Cousins (Rachel from Swindon as she calls herself) about how wonderful Jeremy Corbyn is and how it’s all the evil media’s fault that people hate him:

    https://voicebritannia.co.uk/traducement-of-corbyn-swindononsunday/
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 1,919

    justin124 said:

    FTP
    SeaShantyIrish2 said:
    ' OT - Think this poll shows something similar to US post-2016, namely that voters who were once part of the Democratic working class base but who defected to Trumpsky are NOT likely to desert him anytime soon. Or at least NOT among the mostly likely.

    Think this is part of tipping-point psychology. When voters change their basic voting intention away from a traditional allegiance, in a way that evidence (polling, demographics, electoral trends) shows has been building for some time - well, they simply are NOT going to switch back due to some bumps, or even humongous potholes - down the road they've recently chosen.'

    But a lot of Republicans voted for LBJ in 1964 yet reverted to supporting Nixon in 1968 and 1972.Many Reagan Democrats voted for Clinton in 1992 and 1996.In the UK many Tories who voted Labour in 1966 were Tory voters again in 1970.Former Tories who switched to Labour in 1997 and 2001 have generally long returned to their original home.I personally know several people who voted for Thatcher in 1979 but never voted Tory again.

    Republicanism and Trumpism are not the same thing and it is highly questionable how much overlap there is.

    I suspect a lot of traditional Republicans will not support Trump this time round even if they did last time. The prospect of four years of Biden would not worry them as much as another four years of Trump.

    Unless there is some dramatic development over the next 100 days, Joe is going to walk it.
    Drift of suburban, highly-educated, higher-income Republicans away from GOP has been going on for decades. Trumpsky's wretched record has exacerbated this trend.
    Are they going to get four years of Biden though? Trump's narrative is Joe will soon be brushed aside for the dems real candidate. A much more radical candidate.

    And that's why Biden's veep choice is so very interesting.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 1,114

    Why not turn Isle of Man into permanent party island for Brits? Bring in thousands of sun lamps, make the ferries one-way - problem solved!

    I don't think the Isle of Man is part of the UK
    Tis within the Queen's realm AND no pesky MP to object. Certainly was NOT a problem in WWII when HMG used IoM as holiday camp for assorted enemy aliens. IF it was good enough for foreign layabouts, surely good enough for British ones!

    BUT if not being in UK is deal-breaker, then obvious alternative is Isle of Wight.

    Indeed, could also turn Channel Islands, Lewis (and Harris), Orkney, Shetland, etc. into chain of special holiday/interment camps. With Rockall for the true "adventure" tourist.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 30,103

    Why not turn Isle of Man into permanent party island for Brits? Bring in thousands of sun lamps, make the ferries one-way - problem solved!

    I don't think the Isle of Man is part of the UK
    Tis within the Queen's realm AND no pesky MP to object. Certainly was NOT a problem in WWII when HMG used IoM as holiday camp for assorted enemy aliens. IF it was good enough for foreign layabouts, surely good enough for British ones!

    BUT if not being in UK is deal-breaker, then obvious alternative is Isle of Wight.

    Indeed, could also turn Channel Islands, Lewis (and Harris), Orkney, Shetland, etc. into chain of special holiday/interment camps. With Rockall for the true "adventure" tourist.
    Now you’re just being Scilly.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 55,331
    ydoethur said:

    If anyone wants ‘Corbynites remain utterly fucking deluded’ part 94b, here is an amazing article by Rachel Cousins (Rachel from Swindon as she calls herself) about how wonderful Jeremy Corbyn is and how it’s all the evil media’s fault that people hate him:

    https://voicebritannia.co.uk/traducement-of-corbyn-swindononsunday/

    I get way when the word traduce features so prominently. It seems to have exploded in popularity in the last 3-4 years.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 12,809
    TOPPING said:

    Horrible day here. Wind rain you name it.

    Yes nasty.

    A day to curl up with a good whatever you like to curl up with.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 5,809
    ydoethur said:

    Why not turn Isle of Man into permanent party island for Brits? Bring in thousands of sun lamps, make the ferries one-way - problem solved!

    I don't think the Isle of Man is part of the UK
    Tis within the Queen's realm AND no pesky MP to object. Certainly was NOT a problem in WWII when HMG used IoM as holiday camp for assorted enemy aliens. IF it was good enough for foreign layabouts, surely good enough for British ones!

    BUT if not being in UK is deal-breaker, then obvious alternative is Isle of Wight.

    Indeed, could also turn Channel Islands, Lewis (and Harris), Orkney, Shetland, etc. into chain of special holiday/interment camps. With Rockall for the true "adventure" tourist.
    Now you’re just being Scilly.
    I sea he has the right angle though
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 1,114

    justin124 said:

    FTP
    SeaShantyIrish2 said:
    ' OT - Think this poll shows something similar to US post-2016, namely that voters who were once part of the Democratic working class base but who defected to Trumpsky are NOT likely to desert him anytime soon. Or at least NOT among the mostly likely.

    Think this is part of tipping-point psychology. When voters change their basic voting intention away from a traditional allegiance, in a way that evidence (polling, demographics, electoral trends) shows has been building for some time - well, they simply are NOT going to switch back due to some bumps, or even humongous potholes - down the road they've recently chosen.'

    But a lot of Republicans voted for LBJ in 1964 yet reverted to supporting Nixon in 1968 and 1972.Many Reagan Democrats voted for Clinton in 1992 and 1996.In the UK many Tories who voted Labour in 1966 were Tory voters again in 1970.Former Tories who switched to Labour in 1997 and 2001 have generally long returned to their original home.I personally know several people who voted for Thatcher in 1979 but never voted Tory again.

    Republicanism and Trumpism are not the same thing and it is highly questionable how much overlap there is.

    I suspect a lot of traditional Republicans will not support Trump this time round even if they did last time. The prospect of four years of Biden would not worry them as much as another four years of Trump.

    Unless there is some dramatic development over the next 100 days, Joe is going to walk it.
    Drift of suburban, highly-educated, higher-income Republicans away from GOP has been going on for decades. Trumpsky's wretched record has exacerbated this trend.
    Are they going to get four years of Biden though? Trump's narrative is Joe will soon be brushed aside for the dems real candidate. A much more radical candidate.

    And that's why Biden's veep choice is so very interesting.
    Polling and also primary results show that, hell yes, they are ready, willing & able to vote for Joe this year. VP pick will be somewhat important, but NOT as huge as some PBers and others think. Esp. since 99.46% odds it will NOT be Elizabeth Warren who - unfortunately - ruined both her presidential & VP prospects by trying to out-lefty Bernie.
  • kinabalu said:

    TOPPING said:

    Horrible day here. Wind rain you name it.

    Yes nasty.

    A day to curl up with a good whatever you like to curl up with.
    How are you mate?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 55,331
    TOPPING said:

    Nigelb said:

    TOPPING said:

    Nigelb said:

    rpjs said:

    RobD said:

    Nigelb said:

    Still first...

    Only as the site has been configured to prevent me posting firsts.
    One time I was first , Robert Smithson deleted my post so that he could be first. It was an outrage!
    Surely there is something in the ECHR about this?

    Or does it no longer apply now that we are out of the EU?
    ECHR totally separate from the EU. ;)
    rcs is in California though, so you'll have to see if there's anything in the Bill of Rights that might help.
    But his actions are, literally, the First Amendment....
    Regarding (edit) that paper. Have they controlled for all the co-morbidities? Is this Covid on its own or with another condition or nothing to do with it?
    From the results (which were unusual...eosinophils etc) it would seem to be Covid, as if it were down to disparate underlying conditions, you'd expect results all over the place, rather than the tightly bunched sets of highly unusual results they found.

    Of course there were underlying conditions for many of the patients (though not all, by any means), as they were looking at patients with severe disease.

    The demographic information is in (edit) Extended Data Table 1 | Basic Demographics for IMPACT Cohort:
    https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2588-y_reference.pdf

    (edit) & btw, you failed to appreciate my awesome pun.
    I told you I was rubbish at crosswords and pun (recognition).
    I think ydoethur runs a course for that.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 5,809
    ydoethur said:

    Why not turn Isle of Man into permanent party island for Brits? Bring in thousands of sun lamps, make the ferries one-way - problem solved!

    I don't think the Isle of Man is part of the UK
    Tis within the Queen's realm AND no pesky MP to object. Certainly was NOT a problem in WWII when HMG used IoM as holiday camp for assorted enemy aliens. IF it was good enough for foreign layabouts, surely good enough for British ones!

    BUT if not being in UK is deal-breaker, then obvious alternative is Isle of Wight.

    Indeed, could also turn Channel Islands, Lewis (and Harris), Orkney, Shetland, etc. into chain of special holiday/interment camps. With Rockall for the true "adventure" tourist.
    Now you’re just being Scilly.
    I sea he has the right angle though
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 26,232
    ydoethur said:

    If anyone wants ‘Corbynites remain utterly fucking deluded’ part 94b, here is an amazing article by Rachel Cousins (Rachel from Swindon as she calls herself) about how wonderful Jeremy Corbyn is and how it’s all the evil media’s fault that people hate him:

    https://voicebritannia.co.uk/traducement-of-corbyn-swindononsunday/

    Mind you, she's on the button in respect of the hilarious 2016 leadership challenge: "..the best they could muster up was an ice cream pusher like Owen Smith."
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 1,114

    TOPPING said:

    @TOPPING How's it going today mate

    Going well thanks. Quite busy atm so flitting in and out here.

    All well with you I hope.
    Is this a private love-in or can anybody join in?
    You really ARE a swing voter!
    All good on your side?
    Sorry, but am NOT that kind of boy! My side is fine - is front & back I'm worried about!
  • TOPPING said:

    @TOPPING How's it going today mate

    Going well thanks. Quite busy atm so flitting in and out here.

    All well with you I hope.
    Is this a private love-in or can anybody join in?
    You really ARE a swing voter!
    All good on your side?
    Sorry, but am NOT that kind of boy! My side is fine - is front & back I'm worried about!
    Was just asking how your day was going
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 4,205

    TOPPING said:

    @TOPPING How's it going today mate

    Going well thanks. Quite busy atm so flitting in and out here.

    All well with you I hope.
    Is this a private love-in or can anybody join in?
    You really ARE a swing voter!
    All good on your side?
    Sorry, but am NOT that kind of boy! My side is fine - is front & back I'm worried about!
    Was just asking how your day was going
    He's composing his shanty of iron underpants as we speak.
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