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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Schools reopening has to be at the heart of the Covid plan. Ev

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited August 1 in General
imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Schools reopening has to be at the heart of the Covid plan. Everything else is ad hoc tinkering

Lockdown began in the UK on 24 March because the governments mandated it but not really because they chose to. There were many reasons propelling politicians to that decisions, from the mounting numbers of Covid-19 cases and deaths to the examples being set abroad. What’s easily forgotten though is the extent to which the lockdown was in no small part a legal regulation of something that was already happening organically.

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Comments

  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 3,749
    Don't the Scots return to school mid-August? We might get a better idea of the practicalities once they do.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 28,710

    Don't the Scots return to school mid-August? We might get a better idea of the practicalities once they do.

    Problem if it works it’s because Saint Nicola is fabulous and if it’s a disaster it’s because the darn English are using them as a guinea pig
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 3,123
    Schools are not an essential service.

    The virus is rising again. We will need further restrictions and semi-lockdown I'm afraid.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 6,483
    As with so many aspects of this virus, there seems to be a remarkable lack of empirical evidence about the extent to which the virus is likely to be spread through schools.

    That's the basis on which a decision should be made, not on the kind of vague, a priori considerations in the header. If it's likely to be spread a lot, then reopening schools really would land us back where we were in March, and that would be a disaster on every level. If it's not likely to be spread much, then it can at least be tried to see what happens.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 2,704

    Schools are not an essential service.

    The virus is rising again. We will need further restrictions and semi-lockdown I'm afraid.

    If schools are not an essential service, what is? Let me guess - three letter acronym, first letter N.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 2,704
    Chris said:

    As with so many aspects of this virus, there seems to be a remarkable lack of empirical evidence about the extent to which the virus is likely to be spread through schools.

    That's the basis on which a decision should be made, not on the kind of vague, a priori considerations in the header. If it's likely to be spread a lot, then reopening schools really would land us back where we were in March, and that would be a disaster on every level. If it's not likely to be spread much, then it can at least be tried to see what happens.

    Circular. If it's not likely to spread much we can open the schools to see whether it's likely to spread much.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 23,049
    (FPT)
    Charles said:

    Alistair said:
    “No experience with the post office”

    Of course it’s not possible for an external appointment to ever be the right choice

    I don’t know De Joy so gave no idea about his qualifications. However Wikipedia says he spent his career in freight logistics so I would assume he had some transferable skills
    His qualifications were $2m to the Trump campaign.

    It seems unlikely that shutting down sorting machines early every day, thereby forcing more manual sorting, is likely to improve the efficiency of the service as he claims.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 19,198
    Grandson and his wife, both teachers were describing their schools' plans for September on Thursday. Think, given what we now know, they might have been too ambitious.
    Granddaughter-in-law was concerned over her A and O level students, especially the former. They were beginning to lose enthusiasm towards the end of the Summer term, more than might be expected.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 28,710
    IshmaelZ said:

    Schools are not an essential service.

    The virus is rising again. We will need further restrictions and semi-lockdown I'm afraid.

    If schools are not an essential service, what is? Let me guess - three letter acronym, first letter N.
    Struggling...
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 3,123
    Foxy said:

    Schools are not an essential service.

    The virus is rising again. We will need further restrictions and semi-lockdown I'm afraid.

    Yes they are. While I am more anti-education than most, an increasing gap is opening up between those disciplined households, and those where no one cares for education.

    Parental interest and motivation probably the biggest factor in educational achievement in normal times, and that factor is now supercharged.
    Nope. We can do education at home and online.

    Yes it affects parents and carers but that's tough.

    Schools are not essential.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 3,123
    IshmaelZ said:

    Schools are not an essential service.

    The virus is rising again. We will need further restrictions and semi-lockdown I'm afraid.

    If schools are not an essential service, what is? Let me guess - three letter acronym, first letter N.
    Essential services are services without which it would be impossible to live.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 28,710
    Nigelb said:

    (FPT)

    Charles said:

    Alistair said:
    “No experience with the post office”

    Of course it’s not possible for an external appointment to ever be the right choice

    I don’t know De Joy so gave no idea about his qualifications. However Wikipedia says he spent his career in freight logistics so I would assume he had some transferable skills
    His qualifications were $2m to the Trump campaign.

    It seems unlikely that shutting down sorting machines early every day, thereby forcing more manual sorting, is likely to improve the efficiency of the service as he claims.
    I was observing that the original tweet made the assumption that only done one with them experience if the post office could run the post office.

    IMHO that is incorrect and damaging
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 3,123
    Chris said:

    the extent to which the virus is likely to be spread through schools.

    If it's likely to be spread a lot, then reopening schools really would land us back where we were in March,

    We're already heading that way without schools re-opening.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 28,710

    Foxy said:

    Schools are not an essential service.

    The virus is rising again. We will need further restrictions and semi-lockdown I'm afraid.

    Yes they are. While I am more anti-education than most, an increasing gap is opening up between those disciplined households, and those where no one cares for education.

    Parental interest and motivation probably the biggest factor in educational achievement in normal times, and that factor is now supercharged.
    Nope. We can do education at home and online.

    Yes it affects parents and carers but that's tough.

    Schools are not essential.
    It was a disaster for any child not of an age and motivation to learn without support
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 3,123
    edited August 1
    Changing the subject, is this piece by the BBC on Tammy Duckworth as Biden's VP nominee just another one of their endless clickbaits?

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-53596705
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 34,166
    Went out for dinner last night - the first time since February. It was very nice. One thing struck me, though: save the staff wearing face masks and the tables being slightly further apart, absolutely nothing else was different. That’s great if that’s all that’s required to ensure the risk of virus spread is kept to an absolute minimum, but is it?
  • ChrisChris Posts: 6,483
    IshmaelZ said:

    Chris said:

    As with so many aspects of this virus, there seems to be a remarkable lack of empirical evidence about the extent to which the virus is likely to be spread through schools.

    That's the basis on which a decision should be made, not on the kind of vague, a priori considerations in the header. If it's likely to be spread a lot, then reopening schools really would land us back where we were in March, and that would be a disaster on every level. If it's not likely to be spread much, then it can at least be tried to see what happens.

    Circular. If it's not likely to spread much we can open the schools to see whether it's likely to spread much.
    Sorry if I didn't spell it out clearly enough for you.

    Wouldn't it be nice if we could look at what happened when they reopened schools in other countries, rather than just blindly experimenting?

    Honestly, I do wonder whether COVID-19 has a harmful effect on the brains of some people who haven't even had it!
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 53,828
    Good morning, everyone.

    F1: can't say how useful they'll be but I really like this official practice report and the assorted graphs.

    https://www.formula1.com/en/latest/article.friday-pace-analysis-british-GP-2020-what-can-the-data-from-practice-tell-us.2r4isPWCXpprRkHFLHEvIg.html

    Suggests that, behind Mercedes, Red Bull and Racing Point are doing well, with Ferrari and McLaren similar to one another.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 28,710
    Chris said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Chris said:

    As with so many aspects of this virus, there seems to be a remarkable lack of empirical evidence about the extent to which the virus is likely to be spread through schools.

    That's the basis on which a decision should be made, not on the kind of vague, a priori considerations in the header. If it's likely to be spread a lot, then reopening schools really would land us back where we were in March, and that would be a disaster on every level. If it's not likely to be spread much, then it can at least be tried to see what happens.

    Circular. If it's not likely to spread much we can open the schools to see whether it's likely to spread much.
    Sorry if I didn't spell it out clearly enough for you.

    Wouldn't it be nice if we could look at what happened when they reopened schools in other countries, rather than just blindly experimenting?

    Honestly, I do wonder whether COVID-19 has a harmful effect on the brains of some people who haven't even had it!
    Do you look at Denmark or at Israel?

    And why do you assume the government isn’t?
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 2,704
    Chris said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Chris said:

    As with so many aspects of this virus, there seems to be a remarkable lack of empirical evidence about the extent to which the virus is likely to be spread through schools.

    That's the basis on which a decision should be made, not on the kind of vague, a priori considerations in the header. If it's likely to be spread a lot, then reopening schools really would land us back where we were in March, and that would be a disaster on every level. If it's not likely to be spread much, then it can at least be tried to see what happens.

    Circular. If it's not likely to spread much we can open the schools to see whether it's likely to spread much.
    Sorry if I didn't spell it out clearly enough for you.

    Wouldn't it be nice if we could look at what happened when they reopened schools in other countries, rather than just blindly experimenting?

    Honestly, I do wonder whether COVID-19 has a harmful effect on the brains of some people who haven't even had it!
    Oooh, good save. Except that we can. Sweden never closed its schools, nor did Taiwan. Or Nicaragua. But i am sure you knew that.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 2,704

    IshmaelZ said:

    Schools are not an essential service.

    The virus is rising again. We will need further restrictions and semi-lockdown I'm afraid.

    If schools are not an essential service, what is? Let me guess - three letter acronym, first letter N.
    Essential services are services without which it would be impossible to live.
    O, reason not the need! Our basest beggars
    Are in the poorest thing superfluous.
    Allow not nature more than nature needs,
    Man’s life is cheap as beast’s.

    Education is as essential as it gets.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 14,546
    The idea of the virus budget does appear to be getting traction. I tend to agree that education should be prioritised in some way. I've argued that perhaps school should be divided into halves with one half attending one week and the other attending the other. However, I do wonder if the primary function of schools is education rather than child care.

    I think @Chris is right to point out that we need to consider the affect of schools on the spread of the virus. If schools spread it a lot and that the only way to have them reopen is to ban pretty much everything else, then it's probably not worth it. I think we need to avoid the mentality of banning fun things simply because some really important things are much more problematic.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 30,100
    edited August 1
    A good piece David. Agree with most of it.

    What you might see is primary schools going back on a rolling basis - 50% in one week, 50% the next. That would allow for more distancing and limit the spread.

    That could work for secondary schools up to Year 8 or 9, although the fact so many schools run a two week timetable would definitely complicate things.

    Even that of course would not solve the problem of how do their parents go back to work?

    But even that isn’t the punchline. As @Fysics_Teacher pointed out when he and I were discussing the situation the other night, it’s going to be as near as damnit impossible to follow the protocols in place for GCSE and A level groups as it is. If they get any stricter it’s going to become completely impossible.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 30,100
    Charles said:

    Chris said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Chris said:

    As with so many aspects of this virus, there seems to be a remarkable lack of empirical evidence about the extent to which the virus is likely to be spread through schools.

    That's the basis on which a decision should be made, not on the kind of vague, a priori considerations in the header. If it's likely to be spread a lot, then reopening schools really would land us back where we were in March, and that would be a disaster on every level. If it's not likely to be spread much, then it can at least be tried to see what happens.

    Circular. If it's not likely to spread much we can open the schools to see whether it's likely to spread much.
    Sorry if I didn't spell it out clearly enough for you.

    Wouldn't it be nice if we could look at what happened when they reopened schools in other countries, rather than just blindly experimenting?

    Honestly, I do wonder whether COVID-19 has a harmful effect on the brains of some people who haven't even had it!
    Do you look at Denmark or at Israel?

    And why do you assume the government isn’t?
    A government involving Dominic Cummings looking at real world examples in education?

    1) Cars run on gravy...
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 14,546
    ydoethur said:

    That could work for secondary schools up to Year 8 or 9, although the fact so many schools run a two week timetable would definitely complicate things.

    I don't know if they still do it, but a secondary school near me used to do a six day timetable:

    Monday - Day 1
    Tuesday - Day 2
    Wednesday - Day 3
    Thursday - Day 4
    Friday - Day 5

    Monday - Day 6
    Tuesday - Day 1
    Wednesday - Day 2
    and so on...

    I used to find a two-week timetable hard enough. On a couple of occasions I walked into the classroom, looked around and thought "wrong week!" and quickly left. But I don't think I could have handled a six day timetable.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 30,100
    tlg86 said:

    ydoethur said:

    That could work for secondary schools up to Year 8 or 9, although the fact so many schools run a two week timetable would definitely complicate things.

    I don't know if they still do it, but a secondary school near me used to do a six day timetable:

    Monday - Day 1
    Tuesday - Day 2
    Wednesday - Day 3
    Thursday - Day 4
    Friday - Day 5

    Monday - Day 6
    Tuesday - Day 1
    Wednesday - Day 2
    and so on...

    I used to find a two-week timetable hard enough. On a couple of occasions I walked into the classroom, looked around and thought "wrong week!" and quickly left. But I don't think I could have handled a six day timetable.
    Blimey.

    What total moron thought that one up? That would be more confusing than a Johnson speech on the economy.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 14,734
    The government should be spending serious money on this. We could be erecting temporary classrooms right now. But they’re not. I wonder why they want to do this on the cheap, whilst splashing money around everywhere else.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 14,546
    ydoethur said:

    tlg86 said:

    ydoethur said:

    That could work for secondary schools up to Year 8 or 9, although the fact so many schools run a two week timetable would definitely complicate things.

    I don't know if they still do it, but a secondary school near me used to do a six day timetable:

    Monday - Day 1
    Tuesday - Day 2
    Wednesday - Day 3
    Thursday - Day 4
    Friday - Day 5

    Monday - Day 6
    Tuesday - Day 1
    Wednesday - Day 2
    and so on...

    I used to find a two-week timetable hard enough. On a couple of occasions I walked into the classroom, looked around and thought "wrong week!" and quickly left. But I don't think I could have handled a six day timetable.
    Blimey.

    What total moron thought that one up? That would be more confusing than a Johnson speech on the economy.
    I don't know, but in light of your discussion with @Fysics_Teacher the other night, I wonder if it was to give teachers a spread of different types of Fridays? I can't imagine there would be much to be gained in terms making the timetable more efficient.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 14,734
    There are no nightingale classrooms, no incentives for retired/ex teachers to come back to boost staffing numbers. No national effort to support teachers in a difficult circumstances. Nothing. Zip. Nada.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 30,100
    tlg86 said:

    ydoethur said:

    tlg86 said:

    ydoethur said:

    That could work for secondary schools up to Year 8 or 9, although the fact so many schools run a two week timetable would definitely complicate things.

    I don't know if they still do it, but a secondary school near me used to do a six day timetable:

    Monday - Day 1
    Tuesday - Day 2
    Wednesday - Day 3
    Thursday - Day 4
    Friday - Day 5

    Monday - Day 6
    Tuesday - Day 1
    Wednesday - Day 2
    and so on...

    I used to find a two-week timetable hard enough. On a couple of occasions I walked into the classroom, looked around and thought "wrong week!" and quickly left. But I don't think I could have handled a six day timetable.
    Blimey.

    What total moron thought that one up? That would be more confusing than a Johnson speech on the economy.
    I don't know, but in light of your discussion with @Fysics_Teacher the other night, I wonder if it was to give teachers a spread of different types of Fridays? I can't imagine there would be much to be gained in terms making the timetable more efficient.
    It’s more likely it was to offer more flexibility on rooming.

    But it’s still a stupid idea.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 15,267

    Don't the Scots return to school mid-August? We might get a better idea of the practicalities once they do.

    12th of August in Edinburgh.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 34,306
    Morning all,

    Distinctly more pleasant this morning. 31.6 in my garden in shade yesterday afternoon.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 60,344
    being confined to a small household

    UK's generally tiny housing stock didn't help during lockdown I bet.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 5,106
    Alistair said:

    Don't the Scots return to school mid-August? We might get a better idea of the practicalities once they do.

    12th of August in Edinburgh.
    The glorious 12th? Or not...
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 551
    I was something of a boris cheerleader from last summer onwards. I’d now vote for whoever promises to sack the entire Covid response top table and start again.

    Life comes with risk. Covid isn’t flu but it’s not Disease X either. High time to crack on with living. Don’t often say it but I think Trump had it right the first time. The sacrifices being made by the young on behalf of the old will stretch social unity beyond breaking point if this continues. Destroyed employment prospects, interrupted education, forced ever further into the black hole of social media rather than real social interaction, yet more QE to inflate assets beyond the reach of their ever debased incomes.

    Much more of this and I’ll happily join the barricade to stand up for the rights of the young.

    Trouble is there doesn’t seem to be a mainstream politician or party in the UK spelling all this out. Something of a gap in the market for someone somewhere to exploit.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 1,083
    We never should have closed schools. As others have pointed out, they didn't in various other countries, including Sweden, without a catastrophe.
  • eekeek Posts: 8,645
    Jonathan said:

    The government should be spending serious money on this. We could be erecting temporary classrooms right now. But they’re not. I wonder why they want to do this on the cheap, whilst splashing money around everywhere else.

    Jonathan said:

    There are no nightingale classrooms, no incentives for retired/ex teachers to come back to boost staffing numbers. No national effort to support teachers in a difficult circumstances. Nothing. Zip. Nada.

    Firstly the temporary classrooms don't exist, the number available are limited and they will already be in use.

    As for retired teachers, don't people retire because they reach retirement age so rapidly pass the point at which they need to isolate themselves.

    You can't ask 70 year olds to both self isolate and visit schools /petri dishes.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 5,106
    moonshine said:

    I was something of a boris cheerleader from last summer onwards. I’d now vote for whoever promises to sack the entire Covid response top table and start again.

    Life comes with risk. Covid isn’t flu but it’s not Disease X either. High time to crack on with living. Don’t often say it but I think Trump had it right the first time. The sacrifices being made by the young on behalf of the old will stretch social unity beyond breaking point if this continues. Destroyed employment prospects, interrupted education, forced ever further into the black hole of social media rather than real social interaction, yet more QE to inflate assets beyond the reach of their ever debased incomes.

    Much more of this and I’ll happily join the barricade to stand up for the rights of the young.

    Trouble is there doesn’t seem to be a mainstream politician or party in the UK spelling all this out. Something of a gap in the market for someone somewhere to exploit.

    When the alternative to lockdown was half a million to a million UK dead by conservative estimates, your analysis falls at the first moral hurdle. Maybe not a problem if one can avoid being touched buy the unnecessary death of a loved one.

    I can't bear Johnson, but on this issue, by and large, he is on the money. And holding Trump as a beacon to how it should have been done is verging on the insane.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 1,083
    QTWTAIN - for the reason he gives in the article. Political divides don't closely map to geographical ones.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 5,664
    moonshine said:

    I was something of a boris cheerleader from last summer onwards. I’d now vote for whoever promises to sack the entire Covid response top table and start again.

    Life comes with risk. Covid isn’t flu but it’s not Disease X either. High time to crack on with living. Don’t often say it but I think Trump had it right the first time. The sacrifices being made by the young on behalf of the old will stretch social unity beyond breaking point if this continues. Destroyed employment prospects, interrupted education, forced ever further into the black hole of social media rather than real social interaction, yet more QE to inflate assets beyond the reach of their ever debased incomes.

    Much more of this and I’ll happily join the barricade to stand up for the rights of the young.

    Trouble is there doesn’t seem to be a mainstream politician or party in the UK spelling all this out. Something of a gap in the market for someone somewhere to exploit.

    You're arguing for a "populist" hard right party. You arent standing for the rights of the young, just your rights to impose your opinion onto everyone else.

    I have argued on here that kids need to be back in school but it has to be safely and that's impossible whilst we still need social distancing. The government's strategy has been and partly still is hope the bloody thing will go away. Hence the increasingly absurd contradictions on what we can and can't do without wearing a mask.

    It isn't going away. If we send all our kids back as they were it's going to be a big mess. If we don't send them back their education (academic and social) suffers. There is no easy answer, I would though prefer some thinking from the top at solutions other than "it will go away send them back or we'll fine you"
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 2,395
    IshmaelZ said:

    Schools are not an essential service.

    The virus is rising again. We will need further restrictions and semi-lockdown I'm afraid.

    If schools are not an essential service, what is? Let me guess - three letter acronym, first letter N.
    NWA?
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 11,928
    Whenever possible, lessons should be outdoors.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 5,106

    Whenever possible, lessons should be outdoors.

    Won't the good old British weather have something to say about that idea?
  • FishingFishing Posts: 1,083
    moonshine said:

    I was something of a boris cheerleader from last summer onwards. I’d now vote for whoever promises to sack the entire Covid response top table and start again.

    Life comes with risk. Covid isn’t flu but it’s not Disease X either. High time to crack on with living. Don’t often say it but I think Trump had it right the first time. The sacrifices being made by the young on behalf of the old will stretch social unity beyond breaking point if this continues. Destroyed employment prospects, interrupted education, forced ever further into the black hole of social media rather than real social interaction, yet more QE to inflate assets beyond the reach of their ever debased incomes.

    Much more of this and I’ll happily join the barricade to stand up for the rights of the young.

    Trouble is there doesn’t seem to be a mainstream politician or party in the UK spelling all this out. Something of a gap in the market for someone somewhere to exploit.

    Yes, I agree. We've ruined the quality of life for tens of millions, and once all the deaths caused by recession, interrupted healthcare, etc., are counted, we probably won't have saved any lives in the round. As Professor Bhopal argues, herd immunity is the best way.

    If the disease had a 20% mortality rate, or if it affected children as much as old people, maybe Johnson would be right. But it doesn't.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 11,928

    Whenever possible, lessons should be outdoors.

    Won't the good old British weather have something to say about that idea?
    :) Hence the whenever possible. As a vitamin D deficient nation, this should be happening anyway.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 2,704
    moonshine said:

    I was something of a boris cheerleader from last summer onwards. I’d now vote for whoever promises to sack the entire Covid response top table and start again.

    Life comes with risk. Covid isn’t flu but it’s not Disease X either. High time to crack on with living. Don’t often say it but I think Trump had it right the first time. The sacrifices being made by the young on behalf of the old will stretch social unity beyond breaking point if this continues. Destroyed employment prospects, interrupted education, forced ever further into the black hole of social media rather than real social interaction, yet more QE to inflate assets beyond the reach of their ever debased incomes.

    Much more of this and I’ll happily join the barricade to stand up for the rights of the young.

    Trouble is there doesn’t seem to be a mainstream politician or party in the UK spelling all this out. Something of a gap in the market for someone somewhere to exploit.

    That would have been a better point three months ago when we knew nothing about long term effects on survivors. We now know that surviving this, at any age, may not be a lot more fun than surviving polio. "sacrifices being made by the young on behalf of the old" is outdated thinking.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 5,106
    edited August 1
    Fishing said:

    moonshine said:

    I was something of a boris cheerleader from last summer onwards. I’d now vote for whoever promises to sack the entire Covid response top table and start again.

    Life comes with risk. Covid isn’t flu but it’s not Disease X either. High time to crack on with living. Don’t often say it but I think Trump had it right the first time. The sacrifices being made by the young on behalf of the old will stretch social unity beyond breaking point if this continues. Destroyed employment prospects, interrupted education, forced ever further into the black hole of social media rather than real social interaction, yet more QE to inflate assets beyond the reach of their ever debased incomes.

    Much more of this and I’ll happily join the barricade to stand up for the rights of the young.

    Trouble is there doesn’t seem to be a mainstream politician or party in the UK spelling all this out. Something of a gap in the market for someone somewhere to exploit.

    Yes, I agree. We've ruined the quality of life for tens of millions, and once all the deaths caused by recession, interrupted healthcare, etc., are counted, we probably won't have saved any lives in the round. As Professor Bhopal argues, herd immunity is the best way.

    If the disease had a 20% mortality rate, or if it affected children as much as old people, maybe Johnson would be right. But it doesn't.
    I am more concerned about the million or so Britons who would no longer have a life, directly as a result of your proposal.

    The collateral damage is horrific, however over time, we can work our way back from that. To my knowledge there is no way back for the dead.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 5,106

    Whenever possible, lessons should be outdoors.

    Won't the good old British weather have something to say about that idea?
    :) Hence the whenever possible. As a vitamin D deficient nation, this should be happening anyway.
    Not much vitamin D going on here in South Wales today.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 551

    moonshine said:

    I was something of a boris cheerleader from last summer onwards. I’d now vote for whoever promises to sack the entire Covid response top table and start again.

    Life comes with risk. Covid isn’t flu but it’s not Disease X either. High time to crack on with living. Don’t often say it but I think Trump had it right the first time. The sacrifices being made by the young on behalf of the old will stretch social unity beyond breaking point if this continues. Destroyed employment prospects, interrupted education, forced ever further into the black hole of social media rather than real social interaction, yet more QE to inflate assets beyond the reach of their ever debased incomes.

    Much more of this and I’ll happily join the barricade to stand up for the rights of the young.

    Trouble is there doesn’t seem to be a mainstream politician or party in the UK spelling all this out. Something of a gap in the market for someone somewhere to exploit.

    When the alternative to lockdown was half a million to a million UK dead by conservative estimates, your analysis falls at the first moral hurdle. Maybe not a problem if one can avoid being touched buy the unnecessary death of a loved one.

    I can't bear Johnson, but on this issue, by and large, he is on the money. And holding Trump as a beacon to how it should have been done is verging on the insane.
    The now discredited number from Imperial was 500k if 80% of the public caught it. So your analysis falls at the first empirical hurdle.

    We do not have a counter factual of how many would die in the Uk without hard lockdowns and a reliance on common sense. But there are clues from elsewhere and good reason to believe that when the statistics wash through over a three year period that the excess death number would be substantially below that.

    In March this was the virus that was supposed to collapse the Iranian regime, cause global deaths in the tens of millions. It’s clear it’s not that virus. Since then medics have learnt much more effective treatment options for the critically sick, we have a much better idea of what vulnerabilities make you most at risk and the public has been well educated on hygiene. And there are clues that portions of the population have some level of background immunity.

    This was about flattening the curve, squashing the sombrero, “protecting the NHS”. It was not about eliminating all health risk from the virus to the almost sole benefit of the gerontocracy to the detriment of the young, whilst quite incredibly running a monetary and fiscal policy that further widens the asset gap between the old and the young.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 5,664

    Fishing said:

    moonshine said:

    I was something of a boris cheerleader from last summer onwards. I’d now vote for whoever promises to sack the entire Covid response top table and start again.

    Life comes with risk. Covid isn’t flu but it’s not Disease X either. High time to crack on with living. Don’t often say it but I think Trump had it right the first time. The sacrifices being made by the young on behalf of the old will stretch social unity beyond breaking point if this continues. Destroyed employment prospects, interrupted education, forced ever further into the black hole of social media rather than real social interaction, yet more QE to inflate assets beyond the reach of their ever debased incomes.

    Much more of this and I’ll happily join the barricade to stand up for the rights of the young.

    Trouble is there doesn’t seem to be a mainstream politician or party in the UK spelling all this out. Something of a gap in the market for someone somewhere to exploit.

    Yes, I agree. We've ruined the quality of life for tens of millions, and once all the deaths caused by recession, interrupted healthcare, etc., are counted, we probably won't have saved any lives in the round. As Professor Bhopal argues, herd immunity is the best way.

    If the disease had a 20% mortality rate, or if it affected children as much as old people, maybe Johnson would be right. But it doesn't.
    I am more concerned about the million or so Britons who would no longer have a life, directly as a result of your proposal.

    The collateral damage is horrific, however over time, we can work our way back from that. To my knowledge there is no way back for the dead.
    But think about the economy. The grieving will find solace in the fact that they are spending money commuting into the office to do the job they could do at home. That in buying that mandatory pretat lunchtime and then going down the Booker with their also grieving colleagues they are giving other people jobs.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 1,083
    edited August 1

    Fishing said:

    moonshine said:

    I was something of a boris cheerleader from last summer onwards. I’d now vote for whoever promises to sack the entire Covid response top table and start again.

    Life comes with risk. Covid isn’t flu but it’s not Disease X either. High time to crack on with living. Don’t often say it but I think Trump had it right the first time. The sacrifices being made by the young on behalf of the old will stretch social unity beyond breaking point if this continues. Destroyed employment prospects, interrupted education, forced ever further into the black hole of social media rather than real social interaction, yet more QE to inflate assets beyond the reach of their ever debased incomes.

    Much more of this and I’ll happily join the barricade to stand up for the rights of the young.

    Trouble is there doesn’t seem to be a mainstream politician or party in the UK spelling all this out. Something of a gap in the market for someone somewhere to exploit.

    Yes, I agree. We've ruined the quality of life for tens of millions, and once all the deaths caused by recession, interrupted healthcare, etc., are counted, we probably won't have saved any lives in the round. As Professor Bhopal argues, herd immunity is the best way.

    If the disease had a 20% mortality rate, or if it affected children as much as old people, maybe Johnson would be right. But it doesn't.
    I am more concerned about the million or so Britons who would no longer have a life, directly as a result of your proposal.

    The collateral damage is horrific, however over time, we can work our way back from that. To my knowledge there is no way back for the dead.
    Where do you get the figure of a million from? Don't tell me, Professor Ferguson who said that mad cow disease would kill 50,000 people instead of a few dozen, or foot and mouth would kill 150,000? Oh, and 150 million deaths from bird flu, instead of 282?

    And what is your estimate for how many people will die from lockdown restrictions? There is no way back for the extra 35,000 cancer deaths we're looking at.

    And, finally, how do you weigh quality of life for everybody against deaths?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 5,106
    edited August 1
    moonshine said:

    moonshine said:

    I was something of a boris cheerleader from last summer onwards. I’d now vote for whoever promises to sack the entire Covid response top table and start again.

    Life comes with risk. Covid isn’t flu but it’s not Disease X either. High time to crack on with living. Don’t often say it but I think Trump had it right the first time. The sacrifices being made by the young on behalf of the old will stretch social unity beyond breaking point if this continues. Destroyed employment prospects, interrupted education, forced ever further into the black hole of social media rather than real social interaction, yet more QE to inflate assets beyond the reach of their ever debased incomes.

    Much more of this and I’ll happily join the barricade to stand up for the rights of the young.

    Trouble is there doesn’t seem to be a mainstream politician or party in the UK spelling all this out. Something of a gap in the market for someone somewhere to exploit.

    When the alternative to lockdown was half a million to a million UK dead by conservative estimates, your analysis falls at the first moral hurdle. Maybe not a problem if one can avoid being touched buy the unnecessary death of a loved one.

    I can't bear Johnson, but on this issue, by and large, he is on the money. And holding Trump as a beacon to how it should have been done is verging on the insane.
    The now discredited number from Imperial was 500k if 80% of the public caught it. So your analysis falls at the first empirical hurdle.

    We do not have a counter factual of how many would die in the Uk without hard lockdowns and a reliance on common sense. But there are clues from elsewhere and good reason to believe that when the statistics wash through over a three year period that the excess death number would be substantially below that.

    In March this was the virus that was supposed to collapse the Iranian regime, cause global deaths in the tens of millions. It’s clear it’s not that virus. Since then medics have learnt much more effective treatment options for the critically sick, we have a much better idea of what vulnerabilities make you most at risk and the public has been well educated on hygiene. And there are clues that portions of the population have some level of background immunity.

    This was about flattening the curve, squashing the sombrero, “protecting the NHS”. It was not about eliminating all health risk from the virus to the almost sole benefit of the gerontocracy to the detriment of the young, whilst quite incredibly running a monetary and fiscal policy that further widens the asset gap between the old and the young.
    Discredit the figure all you want. I am content to extrapolate half a million plus on the basis of 60,000 excess deaths even after a three month lockdown.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 11,928

    Whenever possible, lessons should be outdoors.

    Won't the good old British weather have something to say about that idea?
    :) Hence the whenever possible. As a vitamin D deficient nation, this should be happening anyway.
    Not much vitamin D going on here in South Wales today.
    There will be some. I've had a busy week this week (I know I've spammed PB a lot but that's been my break). Not been out of the house at all. :neutral:
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 55,331
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 551
    IshmaelZ said:

    moonshine said:

    I was something of a boris cheerleader from last summer onwards. I’d now vote for whoever promises to sack the entire Covid response top table and start again.

    Life comes with risk. Covid isn’t flu but it’s not Disease X either. High time to crack on with living. Don’t often say it but I think Trump had it right the first time. The sacrifices being made by the young on behalf of the old will stretch social unity beyond breaking point if this continues. Destroyed employment prospects, interrupted education, forced ever further into the black hole of social media rather than real social interaction, yet more QE to inflate assets beyond the reach of their ever debased incomes.

    Much more of this and I’ll happily join the barricade to stand up for the rights of the young.

    Trouble is there doesn’t seem to be a mainstream politician or party in the UK spelling all this out. Something of a gap in the market for someone somewhere to exploit.

    That would have been a better point three months ago when we knew nothing about long term effects on survivors. We now know that surviving this, at any age, may not be a lot more fun than surviving polio. "sacrifices being made by the young on behalf of the old" is outdated thinking.
    This is typical catastrophising hyperbole. By the governments own admission millions in the UK have contracted this virus. How many of those millions are left with long term effects less fun than surviving polio?

    I do not deny this can be a very nasty virus. But people should be free to make their own decisions on whether to hug their grandchild or feast at religious festivals.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 3,198
    “Schools reopening has to be at the heart of the Covid plan.”

    Two problems there:

    1. The Tories have spent the last 5 decades enthusiastically treating the teaching profession as enemies. Good luck crawling to them now and asking a favour.

    2. The Tories have no Covid plan.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 11,928

    “Schools reopening has to be at the heart of the Covid plan.”

    Two problems there:

    1. The Tories have spent the last 5 decades enthusiastically treating the teaching profession as enemies. Good luck crawling to them now and asking a favour.

    2. The Tories have no Covid plan.

    Is doing their job 'a favour'? They are still getting paid.

    If there's a working from home option to educate kids with no danger, let's have it - the public schools have been doing it since the beginning. What has the state sector put in place in this line?
  • ClippPClippP Posts: 324
    moonshine said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    moonshine said:

    I was something of a boris cheerleader from last summer onwards. I’d now vote for whoever promises to sack the entire Covid response top table and start again.

    Life comes with risk. Covid isn’t flu but it’s not Disease X either. High time to crack on with living. Don’t often say it but I think Trump had it right the first time. The sacrifices being made by the young on behalf of the old will stretch social unity beyond breaking point if this continues. Destroyed employment prospects, interrupted education, forced ever further into the black hole of social media rather than real social interaction, yet more QE to inflate assets beyond the reach of their ever debased incomes.

    Much more of this and I’ll happily join the barricade to stand up for the rights of the young.

    Trouble is there doesn’t seem to be a mainstream politician or party in the UK spelling all this out. Something of a gap in the market for someone somewhere to exploit.

    That would have been a better point three months ago when we knew nothing about long term effects on survivors. We now know that surviving this, at any age, may not be a lot more fun than surviving polio. "sacrifices being made by the young on behalf of the old" is outdated thinking.
    This is typical catastrophising hyperbole. By the governments own admission millions in the UK have contracted this virus. How many of those millions are left with long term effects less fun than surviving polio?

    I do not deny this can be a very nasty virus. But people should be free to make their own decisions on whether to hug their grandchild or feast at religious festivals.
    If that were all that happened, perhaps. But "people" then continue to go ahead with their lives and spread the disease further. "Peoploe" can take their own decisions, perhaps, but they have no right to risk killing others.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 551
    edited August 1

    moonshine said:

    moonshine said:

    I was something of a boris cheerleader from last summer onwards. I’d now vote for whoever promises to sack the entire Covid response top table and start again.

    Life comes with risk. Covid isn’t flu but it’s not Disease X either. High time to crack on with living. Don’t often say it but I think Trump had it right the first time. The sacrifices being made by the young on behalf of the old will stretch social unity beyond breaking point if this continues. Destroyed employment prospects, interrupted education, forced ever further into the black hole of social media rather than real social interaction, yet more QE to inflate assets beyond the reach of their ever debased incomes.

    Much more of this and I’ll happily join the barricade to stand up for the rights of the young.

    Trouble is there doesn’t seem to be a mainstream politician or party in the UK spelling all this out. Something of a gap in the market for someone somewhere to exploit.

    When the alternative to lockdown was half a million to a million UK dead by conservative estimates, your analysis falls at the first moral hurdle. Maybe not a problem if one can avoid being touched buy the unnecessary death of a loved one.

    I can't bear Johnson, but on this issue, by and large, he is on the money. And holding Trump as a beacon to how it should have been done is verging on the insane.
    The now discredited number from Imperial was 500k if 80% of the public caught it. So your analysis falls at the first empirical hurdle.

    We do not have a counter factual of how many would die in the Uk without hard lockdowns and a reliance on common sense. But there are clues from elsewhere and good reason to believe that when the statistics wash through over a three year period that the excess death number would be substantially below that.

    In March this was the virus that was supposed to collapse the Iranian regime, cause global deaths in the tens of millions. It’s clear it’s not that virus. Since then medics have learnt much more effective treatment options for the critically sick, we have a much better idea of what vulnerabilities make you most at risk and the public has been well educated on hygiene. And there are clues that portions of the population have some level of background immunity.

    This was about flattening the curve, squashing the sombrero, “protecting the NHS”. It was not about eliminating all health risk from the virus to the almost sole benefit of the gerontocracy to the detriment of the young, whilst quite incredibly running a monetary and fiscal policy that further widens the asset gap between the old and the young.
    Discredit the figure all you want. I am content to extrapolate half a million plus on the basis of 60,000 excess deaths even after a three month lockdown.
    As I have posted before, it’s hard to come up with policies better designed to cause maximum death than followed by this government. More than half of all care homes had outbreaks. Care homes were quite obviously the fucking front line in this fight from the start. Yet it was deemed more important to focus on stopping teenagers from sitting in exam halls than keeping infected patients from returning to care homes. This was obvious stuff even at the time.

    It could very well be the case that the clumsy policies of the government have had no significant impact on deaths from Covid, while drastically increasing the death rate from other causes.

    I seeth with rage and am embarrassed I ever supported this government.
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 2,069
    moonshine said:

    I was something of a boris cheerleader from last summer onwards. I’d now vote for whoever promises to sack the entire Covid response top table and start again.

    Life comes with risk. Covid isn’t flu but it’s not Disease X either. High time to crack on with living. Don’t often say it but I think Trump had it right the first time. The sacrifices being made by the young on behalf of the old will stretch social unity beyond breaking point if this continues. Destroyed employment prospects, interrupted education, forced ever further into the black hole of social media rather than real social interaction, yet more QE to inflate assets beyond the reach of their ever debased incomes.

    Much more of this and I’ll happily join the barricade to stand up for the rights of the young.

    Trouble is there doesn’t seem to be a mainstream politician or party in the UK spelling all this out. Something of a gap in the market for someone somewhere to exploit.

    There's a good reason that you won't find a single UK party willing to follow that strategy, even if one were led by Nigel Farage. Trump has been doing exactly what you suggest, and is on course to lose every branch of government to the Democrats - if the election were held today, he would do so in a landslide.

    The world is in a shitty situation with no good options, but sacrificing the lives or the long-term health of hundreds of thousands of people will win a minority following, at best. To pay that price now when several vaccines are on the horizon would be insane.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 34,369

    “Schools reopening has to be at the heart of the Covid plan.”

    Two problems there:

    1. The Tories have spent the last 5 decades enthusiastically treating the teaching profession as enemies. Good luck crawling to them now and asking a favour.

    2. The Tories have no Covid plan.

    Do you ever consider it is the right thing to do for our children and that the teachers and their unions should be doing everything possible to be constructive

    It is good to see Starmer is moving away from the unions on this

    It will be very interesting to see how Scotland gets on, and I am not going to attempt to score points at our childrens cost but just wish Scotland every success in their endeavours
  • fox327fox327 Posts: 200
    edited August 1

    Schools are not an essential service.

    The virus is rising again. We will need further restrictions and semi-lockdown I'm afraid.

    Humans have spent 99% of their history in the Paleolithic Age, also known as the Old Stone Age. During this time they lived without the NHS, without doctors, and without face masks. They survived, as if they had not we would not be here.

    At the start of the COVID crisis, doctors described themselves as being an essential service. Yet how do they think the first human baby was born? In a hospital, under the care of a team of doctors?

    If the COVID crisis continues for long enough, I hope that the healthcare system will come to a proper perspective about its contribution to society.

    Meanwhile, in human history there has always been an education system of sorts. Young people have always learned the essential skills of their age from their elders, including language, numeracy, tool-making, culture, defence, and the means of gathering or growing of food.

    In that sense the education system is at least as old as healthcare, or older. The formal education system, with examinations and qualifications is of course new. Education and training in its broadest sense is essential to human life and it cannot be neglected without society paying a price.
  • Good header David, thanks. Another area where little thought seems to be being given is the mass movement of more than 1.5 million students around the country this autumn as the new academic year resumes with "blended" learning.
  • Fysics_TeacherFysics_Teacher Posts: 2,809
    tlg86 said:

    ydoethur said:

    That could work for secondary schools up to Year 8 or 9, although the fact so many schools run a two week timetable would definitely complicate things.

    I don't know if they still do it, but a secondary school near me used to do a six day timetable:

    Monday - Day 1
    Tuesday - Day 2
    Wednesday - Day 3
    Thursday - Day 4
    Friday - Day 5

    Monday - Day 6
    Tuesday - Day 1
    Wednesday - Day 2
    and so on...

    I used to find a two-week timetable hard enough. On a couple of occasions I walked into the classroom, looked around and thought "wrong week!" and quickly left. But I don't think I could have handled a six day timetable.
    It’s an elegant solution to the Friday afternoon problem, but it is impractical these days in almost any school as a significant number of teachers are part time, often as a consequence of child care commitments, and so have fixed weekly slots booked.
    There are other reasons in a number of schools to do with activities and sports which need to be on fixed days to match up with other schools so that facilities can be shared
    It would also lead to vast numbers of pupils and a significant number of teachers turning up to school with the wrong books for that day. As you say, two week timetables are bad enough, and I’ve been able to avoid having one of those so far.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 3,198
    ‘Writing on the wall for Scottish Tories despite Ruth’s return’

    The brutal truth is the party has never recovered north of the Border and has nobody it can turn to who has anything approaching the same appeal as Ms Davidson.

    Support for independence is rising, Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s approval ratings are dire in Scotland, and the party is losing several of its senior MSPs in 2021 – Ms Davidson being one.

    Despite Mr Johnson’s protestations, another SNP majority would dramatically increase the pressure for a second independence vote, with most Scots now leaning towards Yes.

    https://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/writing-wall-scottish-tories-despite-ruths-return-chris-green-2930387?amp
  • FishingFishing Posts: 1,083

    moonshine said:

    I was something of a boris cheerleader from last summer onwards. I’d now vote for whoever promises to sack the entire Covid response top table and start again.

    Life comes with risk. Covid isn’t flu but it’s not Disease X either. High time to crack on with living. Don’t often say it but I think Trump had it right the first time. The sacrifices being made by the young on behalf of the old will stretch social unity beyond breaking point if this continues. Destroyed employment prospects, interrupted education, forced ever further into the black hole of social media rather than real social interaction, yet more QE to inflate assets beyond the reach of their ever debased incomes.

    Much more of this and I’ll happily join the barricade to stand up for the rights of the young.

    Trouble is there doesn’t seem to be a mainstream politician or party in the UK spelling all this out. Something of a gap in the market for someone somewhere to exploit.

    There's a good reason that you won't find a single UK party willing to follow that strategy, even if one were led by Nigel Farage. Trump has been doing exactly what you suggest, and is on course to lose every branch of government to the Democrats - if the election were held today, he would do so in a landslide.

    The world is in a shitty situation with no good options, but sacrificing the lives or the long-term health of hundreds of thousands of people will win a minority following, at best. To pay that price now when several vaccines are on the horizon would be insane.
    The best option would have been to shield the elderly in care homes, rather than screwing them by releasing patients from hospitals into them, and to launch a nationwide war on obesity. Not only would that reduce the damage caused by the virus, it would also have many other health benefits.

    What the f was closing outdoor gyms all about? That one still baffles me.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 551

    moonshine said:

    I was something of a boris cheerleader from last summer onwards. I’d now vote for whoever promises to sack the entire Covid response top table and start again.

    Life comes with risk. Covid isn’t flu but it’s not Disease X either. High time to crack on with living. Don’t often say it but I think Trump had it right the first time. The sacrifices being made by the young on behalf of the old will stretch social unity beyond breaking point if this continues. Destroyed employment prospects, interrupted education, forced ever further into the black hole of social media rather than real social interaction, yet more QE to inflate assets beyond the reach of their ever debased incomes.

    Much more of this and I’ll happily join the barricade to stand up for the rights of the young.

    Trouble is there doesn’t seem to be a mainstream politician or party in the UK spelling all this out. Something of a gap in the market for someone somewhere to exploit.

    There's a good reason that you won't find a single UK party willing to follow that strategy, even if one were led by Nigel Farage. Trump has been doing exactly what you suggest, and is on course to lose every branch of government to the Democrats - if the election were held today, he would do so in a landslide.

    The world is in a shitty situation with no good options, but sacrificing the lives or the long-term health of hundreds of thousands of people will win a minority following, at best. To pay that price now when several vaccines are on the horizon would be insane.
    And what if the vaccine cavalry turn out to be carrying wooden swords? The early signs are that none is a silver bullet. It might be they don’t provoke an insufficient immune response in the old while only being effective in the young. How long do we wait for, all the while printing money to support the triple lock state pension, inflating stock and property markets and devaluing the diminished net incomes of the young?
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 3,749
    USA Dem Veep betting

    Since last night, Susan Rice has retaken second favouritism from Karen Bass. In the last hour or so, Val Demings and Tammy Duckworth have shortened on Betfair. Joe Biden has said he will name his running mate in the first week in August; today, of course, is 1st August.

    Kamala Harris: 2.32
    Susan Rice: 5.1
    Karen Bass: 6
    Tammy Duckworth: 15
    Elizabeth Warren: 20
    Val Demings: 20
    Gretchen Whitmer: 34
    Michelle Obama: 38
    Michelle Lujan Grisham: 100
    Keisha Lance Bottoms: 130
    Hillary Clinton: 190
    Stacey Abrams: 310
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 12,809
    Schools or boozers would be a tough choice if it were to come to that. Shades of the FTA choice to be made at about the same time of financial services or fish. The logical route - the shrewdy double as it were - would be to prioritize schools and financial services. These are strange times, though, the country is taking on more and more of a Brexity feel, and so I wouldn't be too surprised if we went with pubs and the fish.
  • Fysics_TeacherFysics_Teacher Posts: 2,809
    Fishing said:

    We never should have closed schools. As others have pointed out, they didn't in various other countries, including Sweden, without a catastrophe.

    What do you do when half or more of the staff have gone down with it or are self-isolating? When the lockdown was still being considered OFSTED put out a paper about how to inspect a school whose head had just died as they seemed to think it would be a common occurrence.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 551
    moonshine said:

    moonshine said:

    I was something of a boris cheerleader from last summer onwards. I’d now vote for whoever promises to sack the entire Covid response top table and start again.

    Life comes with risk. Covid isn’t flu but it’s not Disease X either. High time to crack on with living. Don’t often say it but I think Trump had it right the first time. The sacrifices being made by the young on behalf of the old will stretch social unity beyond breaking point if this continues. Destroyed employment prospects, interrupted education, forced ever further into the black hole of social media rather than real social interaction, yet more QE to inflate assets beyond the reach of their ever debased incomes.

    Much more of this and I’ll happily join the barricade to stand up for the rights of the young.

    Trouble is there doesn’t seem to be a mainstream politician or party in the UK spelling all this out. Something of a gap in the market for someone somewhere to exploit.

    There's a good reason that you won't find a single UK party willing to follow that strategy, even if one were led by Nigel Farage. Trump has been doing exactly what you suggest, and is on course to lose every branch of government to the Democrats - if the election were held today, he would do so in a landslide.

    The world is in a shitty situation with no good options, but sacrificing the lives or the long-term health of hundreds of thousands of people will win a minority following, at best. To pay that price now when several vaccines are on the horizon would be insane.
    And what if the vaccine cavalry turn out to be carrying wooden swords? The early signs are that none is a silver bullet. It might be they don’t provoke a sufficient immune response in the old while only being effective in the young. How long do we wait for, all the while printing money to support the triple lock state pension, inflating stock and property markets and devaluing the diminished net incomes of the young?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 5,106
    Fishing said:

    Fishing said:

    moonshine said:

    I was something of a boris cheerleader from last summer onwards. I’d now vote for whoever promises to sack the entire Covid response top table and start again.

    Life comes with risk. Covid isn’t flu but it’s not Disease X either. High time to crack on with living. Don’t often say it but I think Trump had it right the first time. The sacrifices being made by the young on behalf of the old will stretch social unity beyond breaking point if this continues. Destroyed employment prospects, interrupted education, forced ever further into the black hole of social media rather than real social interaction, yet more QE to inflate assets beyond the reach of their ever debased incomes.

    Much more of this and I’ll happily join the barricade to stand up for the rights of the young.

    Trouble is there doesn’t seem to be a mainstream politician or party in the UK spelling all this out. Something of a gap in the market for someone somewhere to exploit.

    Yes, I agree. We've ruined the quality of life for tens of millions, and once all the deaths caused by recession, interrupted healthcare, etc., are counted, we probably won't have saved any lives in the round. As Professor Bhopal argues, herd immunity is the best way.

    If the disease had a 20% mortality rate, or if it affected children as much as old people, maybe Johnson would be right. But it doesn't.
    I am more concerned about the million or so Britons who would no longer have a life, directly as a result of your proposal.

    The collateral damage is horrific, however over time, we can work our way back from that. To my knowledge there is no way back for the dead.
    Where do you get the figure of a million from? Don't tell me, Professor Ferguson who said that mad cow disease would kill 50,000 people instead of a few dozen, or foot and mouth would kill 150,000? Oh, and 150 million deaths from bird flu, instead of 282?

    And what is your estimate for how many people will die from lockdown restrictions? There is no way back for the extra 35,000 cancer deaths we're looking at.

    And, finally, how do you weigh quality of life for everybody against deaths?
    There were figures, certainly of 800,000 quoted by Johnson.

    How do I measure quality of life against deaths?

    So I won't be able to replace the Mercedes this year, but I am comfortable with that if it means my financial sacrifice has prevented one lost life.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 3,198

    Don't the Scots return to school mid-August? We might get a better idea of the practicalities once they do.

    Funny that. The BBC pretends they are unaware that Scottish children have different summer holidays and caters for English children, despite Scottish parents paying the licence fee. Same with other “UK” institutions that are de facto English institutions. Yet along comes Covid19 and all eyes are on the Jock guinea pig.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 5,106
    edited August 1
    moonshine said:

    moonshine said:

    moonshine said:

    I was something of a boris cheerleader from last summer onwards. I’d now vote for whoever promises to sack the entire Covid response top table and start again.

    Life comes with risk. Covid isn’t flu but it’s not Disease X either. High time to crack on with living. Don’t often say it but I think Trump had it right the first time. The sacrifices being made by the young on behalf of the old will stretch social unity beyond breaking point if this continues. Destroyed employment prospects, interrupted education, forced ever further into the black hole of social media rather than real social interaction, yet more QE to inflate assets beyond the reach of their ever debased incomes.

    Much more of this and I’ll happily join the barricade to stand up for the rights of the young.

    Trouble is there doesn’t seem to be a mainstream politician or party in the UK spelling all this out. Something of a gap in the market for someone somewhere to exploit.

    When the alternative to lockdown was half a million to a million UK dead by conservative estimates, your analysis falls at the first moral hurdle. Maybe not a problem if one can avoid being touched buy the unnecessary death of a loved one.

    I can't bear Johnson, but on this issue, by and large, he is on the money. And holding Trump as a beacon to how it should have been done is verging on the insane.
    The now discredited number from Imperial was 500k if 80% of the public caught it. So your analysis falls at the first empirical hurdle.

    We do not have a counter factual of how many would die in the Uk without hard lockdowns and a reliance on common sense. But there are clues from elsewhere and good reason to believe that when the statistics wash through over a three year period that the excess death number would be substantially below that.

    In March this was the virus that was supposed to collapse the Iranian regime, cause global deaths in the tens of millions. It’s clear it’s not that virus. Since then medics have learnt much more effective treatment options for the critically sick, we have a much better idea of what vulnerabilities make you most at risk and the public has been well educated on hygiene. And there are clues that portions of the population have some level of background immunity.

    This was about flattening the curve, squashing the sombrero, “protecting the NHS”. It was not about eliminating all health risk from the virus to the almost sole benefit of the gerontocracy to the detriment of the young, whilst quite incredibly running a monetary and fiscal policy that further widens the asset gap between the old and the young.
    Discredit the figure all you want. I am content to extrapolate half a million plus on the basis of 60,000 excess deaths even after a three month lockdown.
    As I have posted before, it’s hard to come up with policies better designed to cause maximum death than followed by this government. More than half of all care homes had outbreaks. Care homes were quite obviously the fucking front line in this fight from the start. Yet it was deemed more important to focus on stopping teenagers from sitting in exam halls than keeping infected patients from returning to care homes. This was obvious stuff even at the time.

    It could very well be the case that the clumsy policies of the government have had no significant impact on deaths from Covid, while drastically increasing the death rate from other causes.

    I seeth with rage and am embarrassed I ever supported this government.
    I again reiterate, if on lockdown alone history will be on Johnson's side.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 5,664

    Fishing said:

    We never should have closed schools. As others have pointed out, they didn't in various other countries, including Sweden, without a catastrophe.

    What do you do when half or more of the staff have gone down with it or are self-isolating? When the lockdown was still being considered OFSTED put out a paper about how to inspect a school whose head had just died as they seemed to think it would be a common occurrence.
    They won't though. The narrative being posted on here by various people this morning is essentially that the virus is a hoax. So uppity unionised teachers won't get the Rona as There isnt a rona, not really. Apparently...

    Meanwhile in the real world schools were not closed and remained open to key worker children even in the holidays...
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 2,252
    IshmaelZ said:

    moonshine said:

    I was something of a boris cheerleader from last summer onwards. I’d now vote for whoever promises to sack the entire Covid response top table and start again.

    Life comes with risk. Covid isn’t flu but it’s not Disease X either. High time to crack on with living. Don’t often say it but I think Trump had it right the first time. The sacrifices being made by the young on behalf of the old will stretch social unity beyond breaking point if this continues. Destroyed employment prospects, interrupted education, forced ever further into the black hole of social media rather than real social interaction, yet more QE to inflate assets beyond the reach of their ever debased incomes.

    Much more of this and I’ll happily join the barricade to stand up for the rights of the young.

    Trouble is there doesn’t seem to be a mainstream politician or party in the UK spelling all this out. Something of a gap in the market for someone somewhere to exploit.

    That would have been a better point three months ago when we knew nothing about long term effects on survivors. We now know that surviving this, at any age, may not be a lot more fun than surviving polio. "sacrifices being made by the young on behalf of the old" is outdated thinking.
    Shush.
    You’re spoiling the narrative.
    Remember: it has no effect on the young and those like me (ignore the hospitalisation rates and ICU rates, gloss over the aftereffects, and focus solely on actual deaths). And while we can’t compare the UK’s death toll with other countries due to our higher population density and interlocked international economy, we can pretend that we could have followed Sweden’s option with identical outcomes (once again, gloss over the several-times-higher death rate than its comparable neighbouring countries for a cost of - oops, a worse economic hit than them).

    Because if we take those into account, there might not be a simple “fuck someone else, there’s a route for ME to be unaffected” answer after all.

    Although, to be fair, I think there’s also an element of sheer fear-whistling-in-the-dark there from them as well.

  • TresTres Posts: 137

    moonshine said:

    moonshine said:

    moonshine said:

    I was something of a boris cheerleader from last summer onwards. I’d now vote for whoever promises to sack the entire Covid response top table and start again.

    Life comes with risk. Covid isn’t flu but it’s not Disease X either. High time to crack on with living. Don’t often say it but I think Trump had it right the first time. The sacrifices being made by the young on behalf of the old will stretch social unity beyond breaking point if this continues. Destroyed employment prospects, interrupted education, forced ever further into the black hole of social media rather than real social interaction, yet more QE to inflate assets beyond the reach of their ever debased incomes.

    Much more of this and I’ll happily join the barricade to stand up for the rights of the young.

    Trouble is there doesn’t seem to be a mainstream politician or party in the UK spelling all this out. Something of a gap in the market for someone somewhere to exploit.

    When the alternative to lockdown was half a million to a million UK dead by conservative estimates, your analysis falls at the first moral hurdle. Maybe not a problem if one can avoid being touched buy the unnecessary death of a loved one.

    I can't bear Johnson, but on this issue, by and large, he is on the money. And holding Trump as a beacon to how it should have been done is verging on the insane.
    The now discredited number from Imperial was 500k if 80% of the public caught it. So your analysis falls at the first empirical hurdle.

    We do not have a counter factual of how many would die in the Uk without hard lockdowns and a reliance on common sense. But there are clues from elsewhere and good reason to believe that when the statistics wash through over a three year period that the excess death number would be substantially below that.

    In March this was the virus that was supposed to collapse the Iranian regime, cause global deaths in the tens of millions. It’s clear it’s not that virus. Since then medics have learnt much more effective treatment options for the critically sick, we have a much better idea of what vulnerabilities make you most at risk and the public has been well educated on hygiene. And there are clues that portions of the population have some level of background immunity.

    This was about flattening the curve, squashing the sombrero, “protecting the NHS”. It was not about eliminating all health risk from the virus to the almost sole benefit of the gerontocracy to the detriment of the young, whilst quite incredibly running a monetary and fiscal policy that further widens the asset gap between the old and the young.
    Discredit the figure all you want. I am content to extrapolate half a million plus on the basis of 60,000 excess deaths even after a three month lockdown.
    As I have posted before, it’s hard to come up with policies better designed to cause maximum death than followed by this government. More than half of all care homes had outbreaks. Care homes were quite obviously the fucking front line in this fight from the start. Yet it was deemed more important to focus on stopping teenagers from sitting in exam halls than keeping infected patients from returning to care homes. This was obvious stuff even at the time.

    It could very well be the case that the clumsy policies of the government have had no significant impact on deaths from Covid, while drastically increasing the death rate from other causes.

    I seeth with rage and am embarrassed I ever supported this government.
    I again reiterate, if on lockdown alone history will be on Johnson's side.
    Aside from his week or so of faff in March costing a few thousands lives. Conversely if he had delayed another week we would probably be in 6 figures now.
  • Fysics_TeacherFysics_Teacher Posts: 2,809
    edited August 1
    Charles said:

    Foxy said:

    Schools are not an essential service.

    The virus is rising again. We will need further restrictions and semi-lockdown I'm afraid.

    Yes they are. While I am more anti-education than most, an increasing gap is opening up between those disciplined households, and those where no one cares for education.

    Parental interest and motivation probably the biggest factor in educational achievement in normal times, and that factor is now supercharged.
    Nope. We can do education at home and online.

    Yes it affects parents and carers but that's tough.

    Schools are not essential.
    It was a disaster for any child not of an age and motivation to learn without support
    My experience was that some, usually the ones I expected to, were well motivated and did the work set conscientiously (indeed as my lessons were sent out as pre-recorded videos some said they preferred them as they could go back over the bits that they found tricky), some (probably the majority) did most of the work but were flagging towards the end, and a small number did not engage at all or only a tiny amount.
    I’m not sure it was the disaster some claim for most students, though it was certainly pretty bad for a significant number, but if we can’t get back to something like normal in September then I expect to see far more problems. To start with, last term I was teaching pupils that knew me as I had been teaching them for at least several months already. In September that will only be true of my Y11 and Y13 classes.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 551

    moonshine said:

    moonshine said:

    moonshine said:

    I was something of a boris cheerleader from last summer onwards. I’d now vote for whoever promises to sack the entire Covid response top table and start again.

    Life comes with risk. Covid isn’t flu but it’s not Disease X either. High time to crack on with living. Don’t often say it but I think Trump had it right the first time. The sacrifices being made by the young on behalf of the old will stretch social unity beyond breaking point if this continues. Destroyed employment prospects, interrupted education, forced ever further into the black hole of social media rather than real social interaction, yet more QE to inflate assets beyond the reach of their ever debased incomes.

    Much more of this and I’ll happily join the barricade to stand up for the rights of the young.

    Trouble is there doesn’t seem to be a mainstream politician or party in the UK spelling all this out. Something of a gap in the market for someone somewhere to exploit.

    When the alternative to lockdown was half a million to a million UK dead by conservative estimates, your analysis falls at the first moral hurdle. Maybe not a problem if one can avoid being touched buy the unnecessary death of a loved one.

    I can't bear Johnson, but on this issue, by and large, he is on the money. And holding Trump as a beacon to how it should have been done is verging on the insane.
    The now discredited number from Imperial was 500k if 80% of the public caught it. So your analysis falls at the first empirical hurdle.

    We do not have a counter factual of how many would die in the Uk without hard lockdowns and a reliance on common sense. But there are clues from elsewhere and good reason to believe that when the statistics wash through over a three year period that the excess death number would be substantially below that.

    In March this was the virus that was supposed to collapse the Iranian regime, cause global deaths in the tens of millions. It’s clear it’s not that virus. Since then medics have learnt much more effective treatment options for the critically sick, we have a much better idea of what vulnerabilities make you most at risk and the public has been well educated on hygiene. And there are clues that portions of the population have some level of background immunity.

    This was about flattening the curve, squashing the sombrero, “protecting the NHS”. It was not about eliminating all health risk from the virus to the almost sole benefit of the gerontocracy to the detriment of the young, whilst quite incredibly running a monetary and fiscal policy that further widens the asset gap between the old and the young.
    Discredit the figure all you want. I am content to extrapolate half a million plus on the basis of 60,000 excess deaths even after a three month lockdown.
    As I have posted before, it’s hard to come up with policies better designed to cause maximum death than followed by this government. More than half of all care homes had outbreaks. Care homes were quite obviously the fucking front line in this fight from the start. Yet it was deemed more important to focus on stopping teenagers from sitting in exam halls than keeping infected patients from returning to care homes. This was obvious stuff even at the time.

    It could very well be the case that the clumsy policies of the government have had no significant impact on deaths from Covid, while drastically increasing the death rate from other causes.

    I seeth with rage and am embarrassed I ever supported this government.
    I again reiterate, if on lockdown alone history will be on Johnson's side.
    It will not. I am confident the overall policy response from January onwards will be judged as either ineffective or counter productive.

    The obvious stuff was either done too late or not at all if your goal was to prevent spread. Where were the closed borders? Where is the central quarantine facility for both new arrivals and those infected by community transmission? Why in March was my immune compromised mother sitting in a gp waiting room for a blood pressure test, surrounded by coughing patients, none of whom had their temperatures taken, were asked to sanitise or were wearing masks? Why did the Nightingales lie empty rather than take infected patients so that care could continue for other diseases, and the infected would not be let loose to infect their own families and/or care home residents? Why call up the army and still have roving care home workers still serving multiple facilities? Why did Cheltenham go ahead? Etc etc etc...

    These were all obvious errors AT THE TIME if your goal was to halt the spread but certainly so if your goal was to prevent the most vulnerable from being infected.

    Why even now are infected people told to isolate at home, where it’s nearly impossible not to pass onto family members, when the country’s hotels lie empty and on the verge of bankruptcy?

    I say without any hint of arrogance that if I’d been on the covid committee I would have saved tens of thousands of lives, by asking the obvious questions early and avoiding doing the stupid stuff.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 19,198

    Fishing said:

    We never should have closed schools. As others have pointed out, they didn't in various other countries, including Sweden, without a catastrophe.

    What do you do when half or more of the staff have gone down with it or are self-isolating? When the lockdown was still being considered OFSTED put out a paper about how to inspect a school whose head had just died as they seemed to think it would be a common occurrence.
    They won't though. The narrative being posted on here by various people this morning is essentially that the virus is a hoax. So uppity unionised teachers won't get the Rona as There isnt a rona, not really. Apparently...

    Meanwhile in the real world schools were not closed and remained open to key worker children even in the holidays...
    Teacher grandson isn't as worried about the virus himself as inadvertently spreading it to his grandparents, all in their 80's, and parents-in-law, who are 'not as fit as they ought to be!'
    He's also bothered about the risk of cross-infection in his class of primary school children.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 20,282
    Sad news guys, BA01 from City to JFK has been permanently cancelled. It was a wonderful experience.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 74,050
    edited August 1

    ‘Writing on the wall for Scottish Tories despite Ruth’s return’

    The brutal truth is the party has never recovered north of the Border and has nobody it can turn to who has anything approaching the same appeal as Ms Davidson.

    Support for independence is rising, Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s approval ratings are dire in Scotland, and the party is losing several of its senior MSPs in 2021 – Ms Davidson being one.

    Despite Mr Johnson’s protestations, another SNP majority would dramatically increase the pressure for a second independence vote, with most Scots now leaning towards Yes.

    https://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/writing-wall-scottish-tories-despite-ruths-return-chris-green-2930387?amp

    Including Don't Knows Yes is not over 50% in any poll.

    Ruth Davidson is now back as interim Scottish Tory leader at Holyrood.

    I think it likely Unionist parties will do a deal not to campaign or even stand against each other in Holyrood constituency seats e.g. Labour gets a free run against the SNP in Glasgow and the central belt, the Tories get a free run against the SNP in the borders and Aberdeenshire and the LDs get a free run against the SNP in the Highlands and Orkney and Shetland and the posher parts of Edinburgh.

    The Unionist parties may only end up all standing on the MSP list
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 551



    IshmaelZ said:

    moonshine said:

    I was something of a boris cheerleader from last summer onwards. I’d now vote for whoever promises to sack the entire Covid response top table and start again.

    Life comes with risk. Covid isn’t flu but it’s not Disease X either. High time to crack on with living. Don’t often say it but I think Trump had it right the first time. The sacrifices being made by the young on behalf of the old will stretch social unity beyond breaking point if this continues. Destroyed employment prospects, interrupted education, forced ever further into the black hole of social media rather than real social interaction, yet more QE to inflate assets beyond the reach of their ever debased incomes.

    Much more of this and I’ll happily join the barricade to stand up for the rights of the young.

    Trouble is there doesn’t seem to be a mainstream politician or party in the UK spelling all this out. Something of a gap in the market for someone somewhere to exploit.

    That would have been a better point three months ago when we knew nothing about long term effects on survivors. We now know that surviving this, at any age, may not be a lot more fun than surviving polio. "sacrifices being made by the young on behalf of the old" is outdated thinking.
    Shush.
    You’re spoiling the narrative.
    Remember: it has no effect on the young and those like me (ignore the hospitalisation rates and ICU rates, gloss over the aftereffects, and focus solely on actual deaths). And while we can’t compare the UK’s death toll with other countries due to our higher population density and interlocked international economy, we can pretend that we could have followed Sweden’s option with identical outcomes (once again, gloss over the several-times-higher death rate than its comparable neighbouring countries for a cost of - oops, a worse economic hit than them).

    Because if we take those into account, there might not be a simple “fuck someone else, there’s a route for ME to be unaffected” answer after all.

    Although, to be fair, I think there’s also an element of sheer fear-whistling-in-the-dark there from them as well.

    You know nothing about me. If I caught this disease I’d potentially be in some trouble. Financially I’ve done brilliantly out of the economic lockdown and anti-young monetary policies, boosting my savings by several years’ worth.

    It’s not fear whistling in the dark. This is a real disease that kills people. People like me. But the cure so far has been ineffective and quite possibly counter productive.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 12,809

    USA Dem Veep betting

    Since last night, Susan Rice has retaken second favouritism from Karen Bass. In the last hour or so, Val Demings and Tammy Duckworth have shortened on Betfair. Joe Biden has said he will name his running mate in the first week in August; today, of course, is 1st August.

    Kamala Harris: 2.32
    Susan Rice: 5.1
    Karen Bass: 6
    Tammy Duckworth: 15
    Elizabeth Warren: 20
    Val Demings: 20
    Gretchen Whitmer: 34
    Michelle Obama: 38
    Michelle Lujan Grisham: 100
    Keisha Lance Bottoms: 130
    Hillary Clinton: 190
    Stacey Abrams: 310

    I'm still expecting Harris (and I'm OK with that) but if this were a feelgood blockbuster movie there's only one suitable ending. Michelle Obama.
  • TresTres Posts: 137
    HYUFD said:

    ‘Writing on the wall for Scottish Tories despite Ruth’s return’

    The brutal truth is the party has never recovered north of the Border and has nobody it can turn to who has anything approaching the same appeal as Ms Davidson.

    Support for independence is rising, Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s approval ratings are dire in Scotland, and the party is losing several of its senior MSPs in 2021 – Ms Davidson being one.

    Despite Mr Johnson’s protestations, another SNP majority would dramatically increase the pressure for a second independence vote, with most Scots now leaning towards Yes.

    https://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/writing-wall-scottish-tories-despite-ruths-return-chris-green-2930387?amp

    Including Don't Knows Yes is not over 50% in any poll
    'including don't knows'
    Cos that is how elections work.
  • Fysics_TeacherFysics_Teacher Posts: 2,809

    “Schools reopening has to be at the heart of the Covid plan.”

    Two problems there:

    1. The Tories have spent the last 5 decades enthusiastically treating the teaching profession as enemies. Good luck crawling to them now and asking a favour.

    2. The Tories have no Covid plan.

    Is doing their job 'a favour'? They are still getting paid.

    If there's a working from home option to educate kids with no danger, let's have it - the public schools have been doing it since the beginning. What has the state sector put in place in this line?
    If they are like my school, using Microsoft Teams to do exactly that. The problem is that there is a limit to how much you can do from home, particularly if you are trying to teach Physics. Practicals were a challenge, though I did manage a few one way or another.

    Fishing said:

    We never should have closed schools. As others have pointed out, they didn't in various other countries, including Sweden, without a catastrophe.

    What do you do when half or more of the staff have gone down with it or are self-isolating? When the lockdown was still being considered OFSTED put out a paper about how to inspect a school whose head had just died as they seemed to think it would be a common occurrence.
    They won't though. The narrative being posted on here by various people this morning is essentially that the virus is a hoax. So uppity unionised teachers won't get the Rona as There isnt a rona, not really. Apparently...

    Meanwhile in the real world schools were not closed and remained open to key worker children even in the holidays...
    True, though I don’t know how many parents used them. Primary schools were probably different, but reports from my colleagues who went in on the rota to look after key-workers children suggested that the teachers often outnumbered the pupils: and that is a school with a four figure roll.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 30,100

    Whenever possible, lessons should be outdoors.

    I’ve played that game, during a heatwave.

    Newsflash - it isn’t possible. Or at least, it makes everything so much more difficult as to render any actual education a lucky bonus.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 2,704
    moonshine said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    moonshine said:

    I was something of a boris cheerleader from last summer onwards. I’d now vote for whoever promises to sack the entire Covid response top table and start again.

    Life comes with risk. Covid isn’t flu but it’s not Disease X either. High time to crack on with living. Don’t often say it but I think Trump had it right the first time. The sacrifices being made by the young on behalf of the old will stretch social unity beyond breaking point if this continues. Destroyed employment prospects, interrupted education, forced ever further into the black hole of social media rather than real social interaction, yet more QE to inflate assets beyond the reach of their ever debased incomes.

    Much more of this and I’ll happily join the barricade to stand up for the rights of the young.

    Trouble is there doesn’t seem to be a mainstream politician or party in the UK spelling all this out. Something of a gap in the market for someone somewhere to exploit.

    That would have been a better point three months ago when we knew nothing about long term effects on survivors. We now know that surviving this, at any age, may not be a lot more fun than surviving polio. "sacrifices being made by the young on behalf of the old" is outdated thinking.
    This is typical catastrophising hyperbole. By the governments own admission millions in the UK have contracted this virus. How many of those millions are left with long term effects less fun than surviving polio?

    I do not deny this can be a very nasty virus. But people should be free to make their own decisions on whether to hug their grandchild or feast at religious festivals.
    Your logic is a pretty good match for your manners.

    Thought experiment: "Before a vaccine was introduced in the 1950s, epidemics would result in up to 7760 cases of paralytic polio in the UK each year, with up to 750 deaths." (https://vk.ovg.ox.ac.uk/vk/polio (Anything with ox.ac. in the url must be good science.) Say we suddenly discover by applying modern diagnostic techniques to pre 1950s samples that there were actually up to 776,000 cases a year, the vast majority of them asymptomatic. Does that discovery mean that the situation was worse than we thought, better than we thought, or make no practical difference one way or the other?
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 2,704
    ydoethur said:

    Whenever possible, lessons should be outdoors.

    I’ve played that game, during a heatwave.

    Newsflash - it isn’t possible. Or at least, it makes everything so much more difficult as to render any actual education a lucky bonus.
    Correct. It is always too hot, cold, windy or wet, and you can't read either paper or screens if the sun is out.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 7,372
    HYUFD said:

    ‘Writing on the wall for Scottish Tories despite Ruth’s return’

    The brutal truth is the party has never recovered north of the Border and has nobody it can turn to who has anything approaching the same appeal as Ms Davidson.

    Support for independence is rising, Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s approval ratings are dire in Scotland, and the party is losing several of its senior MSPs in 2021 – Ms Davidson being one.

    Despite Mr Johnson’s protestations, another SNP majority would dramatically increase the pressure for a second independence vote, with most Scots now leaning towards Yes.

    https://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/writing-wall-scottish-tories-despite-ruths-return-chris-green-2930387?amp

    Including Don't Knows Yes is not over 50% in any poll.

    Ruth Davidson is now back as interim Scottish Tory leader at Holyrood.

    I think it likely Unionist parties will do a deal not to campaign or even stand against each other in Holyrood constituency seats e.g. Labour gets a free run against the SNP in Glasgow and the central belt, the Tories get a free run against the SNP in the borders and Aberdeenshire and the LDs get a free run against the SNP in the Highlands and Orkney and Shetland and the posher parts of Edinburgh.

    The Unionist parties may only end up all standing on the MSP list
    Really?
    I mean that was de facto what happened in Quebec, but I didn't think we were anywhere near that stage yet.
  • Fysics_TeacherFysics_Teacher Posts: 2,809
    ydoethur said:

    Whenever possible, lessons should be outdoors.

    I’ve played that game, during a heatwave.

    Newsflash - it isn’t possible. Or at least, it makes everything so much more difficult as to render any actual education a lucky bonus.
    Depends what you are teaching: Newton’s Laws using water rockets goes pretty well, as does the speed of sound and modelling the size of the solar system.

    Our history department re-enacts the Battle of Hastings using water balloons and Y7...
  • MattWMattW Posts: 4,087
    edited August 1

    FPT

    So my reading glasses have been 'lost' since Tuesday. I've just found them. In plain sight on my desk.

    To be fair, when the laptop lid was open it hid them, but still...

    Time for a lie down. Night all. Cooler tomoz.

    Do we need to strategise this? Probably common on PB :-)

    My glasses strategy is nearly the best variowotsit, and identical frames - one pair with tints (for outside), and a clear identical one (for inside).

    Green case for the case for the outside glasses (same colour as car), and international orange for the inside pair so I can find them.

    And a vague feeling of OUCH every time I sign a bill at Specsavers (value the local service), even though I get most of it back via BHSF and a cash grant.

    Impressed with the growth of the local Specsavers. When I approached them for a gym membership scheme they turned out to have about 40 staff.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 30,100

    ydoethur said:

    Whenever possible, lessons should be outdoors.

    I’ve played that game, during a heatwave.

    Newsflash - it isn’t possible. Or at least, it makes everything so much more difficult as to render any actual education a lucky bonus.
    Depends what you are teaching: Newton’s Laws using water rockets goes pretty well, as does the speed of sound and modelling the size of the solar system.

    Our history department re-enacts the Battle of Hastings using water balloons and Y7...
    Well, I’m always happy to hear somebody is killing off Year 7, but what I meant was a serious lesson.

    How, for example, can I teach about the Five Year Plans without a whiteboard?

    Moreover, even as a trained vocalist it’s hard to project my voice far enough to be heard when I am explaining something.

    Finally, all too few of our schools have outside spaces now.

    So I really don’t think ‘whenever possible’ covers many scenarios.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 551
    IshmaelZ said:

    moonshine said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    moonshine said:

    I was something of a boris cheerleader from last summer onwards. I’d now vote for whoever promises to sack the entire Covid response top table and start again.

    Life comes with risk. Covid isn’t flu but it’s not Disease X either. High time to crack on with living. Don’t often say it but I think Trump had it right the first time. The sacrifices being made by the young on behalf of the old will stretch social unity beyond breaking point if this continues. Destroyed employment prospects, interrupted education, forced ever further into the black hole of social media rather than real social interaction, yet more QE to inflate assets beyond the reach of their ever debased incomes.

    Much more of this and I’ll happily join the barricade to stand up for the rights of the young.

    Trouble is there doesn’t seem to be a mainstream politician or party in the UK spelling all this out. Something of a gap in the market for someone somewhere to exploit.

    That would have been a better point three months ago when we knew nothing about long term effects on survivors. We now know that surviving this, at any age, may not be a lot more fun than surviving polio. "sacrifices being made by the young on behalf of the old" is outdated thinking.
    This is typical catastrophising hyperbole. By the governments own admission millions in the UK have contracted this virus. How many of those millions are left with long term effects less fun than surviving polio?

    I do not deny this can be a very nasty virus. But people should be free to make their own decisions on whether to hug their grandchild or feast at religious festivals.
    Your logic is a pretty good match for your manners.

    Thought experiment: "Before a vaccine was introduced in the 1950s, epidemics would result in up to 7760 cases of paralytic polio in the UK each year, with up to 750 deaths." (https://vk.ovg.ox.ac.uk/vk/polio (Anything with ox.ac. in the url must be good science.) Say we suddenly discover by applying modern diagnostic techniques to pre 1950s samples that there were actually up to 776,000 cases a year, the vast majority of them asymptomatic. Does that discovery mean that the situation was worse than we thought, better than we thought, or make no practical difference one way or the other?
    Ok, where is your evidence that we will have over 10k young people a year (adjusted for population expansion since 1950) left with a disability as debilitating as partial paralysis?

    Do you suppose the social and economic restrictions imposed come with no long term (or acute) health consequences? I’m likely to lose a family friend who hasn’t received cancer treatment since March. I’m sure someone as well educated and well mannered as yourself can find the data that indicates this is no mere anecdote.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 3,198
    Fishing said:

    We never should have closed schools. As others have pointed out, they didn't in various other countries, including Sweden, without a catastrophe.

    Swedish teachers respect and trust their government. English teachers don’t.

    Swedish parents respect and trust their schools. English parents don’t.

    Swedish children respect and trust their teachers. English children don’t.
  • Fysics_TeacherFysics_Teacher Posts: 2,809
    MattW said:


    FPT

    So my reading glasses have been 'lost' since Tuesday. I've just found them. In plain sight on my desk.

    To be fair, when the laptop lid was open it hid them, but still...

    Time for a lie down. Night all. Cooler tomoz.

    Do we need to strategise this? Probably common on PB :-)

    My glasses strategy is nearly the best variowotsit, and identical frames - one pair with tints (for outside), and a clear identical one (for inside).

    Green case for the case for the outside glasses (same colour as car), and international orange for the inside pair so I can find them.

    And a vague feeling of OUCH every time I sign a bill at Specsavers (value the local service), even though I get most of it back via BHSF and a cash grant.

    Impressed with the growth of the local Specsavers. When I approached them for a gym membership scheme they turned out to have about 40 staff.
    Who else remembers the Professor Branestawm books? He had I think five pairs of glasses, one of which was for finding the others when he lost them.

    I thought the idea was hilarious when I was nine. I now find myself wondering if Specsavers would give a discount on them.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 30,100
    edited August 1

    Fishing said:

    We never should have closed schools. As others have pointed out, they didn't in various other countries, including Sweden, without a catastrophe.

    Swedish teachers respect and trust their government. English teachers don’t.

    Swedish parents respect and trust their schools. English parents don’t.

    Swedish children respect and trust their teachers. English children don’t.
    I think the last one is something of an overgeneralisation. First of all, because I have met many students who do respect and trust their teachers. You always get a hard core who don’t, but as Dr Rogers says, the key is to make sure there as few of them as possible and their peers get fed up with them.

    Secondly, limiting it to ‘English’ is a rather silly comment. Many Scottish children hate and despise their teachers too.

    Moreover, you do know how much Scottish teachers despise their overlords in Edinburgh, don’t you? Some of them have even lamented to me they wish they had Michael Gove instead, although I’m fairly sure that wouldn’t survive their wish being granted.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 30,100

    MattW said:


    FPT

    So my reading glasses have been 'lost' since Tuesday. I've just found them. In plain sight on my desk.

    To be fair, when the laptop lid was open it hid them, but still...

    Time for a lie down. Night all. Cooler tomoz.

    Do we need to strategise this? Probably common on PB :-)

    My glasses strategy is nearly the best variowotsit, and identical frames - one pair with tints (for outside), and a clear identical one (for inside).

    Green case for the case for the outside glasses (same colour as car), and international orange for the inside pair so I can find them.

    And a vague feeling of OUCH every time I sign a bill at Specsavers (value the local service), even though I get most of it back via BHSF and a cash grant.

    Impressed with the growth of the local Specsavers. When I approached them for a gym membership scheme they turned out to have about 40 staff.
    Who else remembers the Professor Branestawm books? He had I think five pairs of glasses, one of which was for finding the others when he lost them.

    I thought the idea was hilarious when I was nine. I now find myself wondering if Specsavers would give a discount on them.
    Indeed yes. An ingenious idea from Norman about Huntering for glasses.
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