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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Opinium’s Tory lead down from 26% at the start of Starmer’s LA

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited August 1 in General
imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Opinium’s Tory lead down from 26% at the start of Starmer’s LAB leadership to 3% tonight

In the first poll by Opinium after Starmer became LAB leader the Tories were on 55% and LAB on 29%. Tonight’s weekly poll from the firm for the Observer has CON 41: LAB 38: LD 6%.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 34,832
    In ACTUAL national polling:

    23 May, 2019: Conservatives achieve 8.8% under Theresa May

    12 December, 2019: Conservatives achieve 43.6% under Boris Johnson.

    An increase of 34.8%.


    That's the bar.
  • Starmer is playing the long game and playing it well.

    His personal popularity remains high but he is not yet converting that entirely into Labour votes. To do that he must prove that Labour has really changed - the EHRC investigation will give him the ability to do that.

    If Corbyn and co are implicated in that - as I suspect they are - then they should lose the Whip.
  • ukpaulukpaul Posts: 619
    edited August 1
    Third?

    I posted this on the previous thread, a gov.scot official calculator of your age equivalent to check your covid risk. Worth a look, I think.

    https://bit.ly/3gmCLw1
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 14,546
    Second like Arsenal (so far).
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 14,675

    In ACTUAL national polling:

    23 May, 2019: Conservatives achieve 8.8% under Theresa May

    12 December, 2019: Conservatives achieve 43.6% under Boris Johnson.

    An increase of 34.8%.


    That's the bar.

    You mean the next Tory leader needs to get 78.4% or will have failed? And the one after that 111.2%?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 30,104

    In ACTUAL national polling:

    23 May, 2019: Conservatives achieve 8.8% under Theresa May

    12 December, 2019: Conservatives achieve 43.6% under Boris Johnson.

    An increase of 34.8%.


    That's the bar.

    You mean the next Tory leader needs to get 78.4% or will have failed? And the one after that 111.2%?
    We talking postal voting here Nick?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 30,104
    edited August 1
    Jason Roy should open an egg farm with all the ducks he’s getting.

    Edit - oh blimey, Mr Beautiful 30 and Dozy Way to Get Out now at the crease.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 20,282
    That's not entirely correct because testing has been laser focussed on areas with suspected outbreaks so that causes an increase in the numbers.
  • In ACTUAL national polling:

    23 May, 2019: Conservatives achieve 8.8% under Theresa May

    12 December, 2019: Conservatives achieve 43.6% under Boris Johnson.

    An increase of 34.8%.


    That's the bar.

    That qualifies for PB Bollocks post of the week. Congratulations.
    Our leader has spoken
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 27,168
    That is not a logical tweet, presenting no actual evidence for its conclusions.

    If infection rates are rising, we would see a rise in the hospitalisation rate a couple of weeks later and in the death rate three weeks later. So far there is no sign of either, even in Leicester.
  • ShantaShanta Posts: 1
    Betting tip

    Hurricane Isaias is heading for Palm Beach tomorrow, site of Donald Trump's property Mar-a-Lago.

    Trump is phobic about the sea. I mean he is really phobic about the sea. He wants all sharks to die, he got terrified when he was on his own yacht and it weighed anchor (he thought it was about to sink) (try to find a single photo of him on a boat - even slopes make him think of gangways), and he has repeatedly asked whether storms can be fought using nuclear weapons.

    So if a freakout by the Chief leading sober Mike to invoke the 25th Amendment is coming, it may well all be over before the convention.
  • EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,880

    Starmer is playing the long game and playing it well.

    His personal popularity remains high but he is not yet converting that entirely into Labour votes. To do that he must prove that Labour has really changed - the EHRC investigation will give him the ability to do that.

    If Corbyn and co are implicated in that - as I suspect they are - then they should lose the Whip.

    Agree that would be the right thing to do, but goodness knows what consequences it could unleash. If Corbyn's inner circle lost the whip, some of the newer, Corbynite MPs could follow of their own accord. If they formed a new party and took some members with them, they could split the Labour vote in winnable constituencies in GE2024. Or maybe they'd have about as much impact as Change UK/TIG/whatever.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 30,104

    In ACTUAL national polling:

    23 May, 2019: Conservatives achieve 8.8% under Theresa May

    12 December, 2019: Conservatives achieve 43.6% under Boris Johnson.

    An increase of 34.8%.


    That's the bar.

    That qualifies for PB Bollocks post of the week. Congratulations.
    Our leader has spoken
    Really? How did he hack OGH’s account and why would Sir Keir want to slap down @MarqueeMark?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 27,168

    In ACTUAL national polling:

    23 May, 2019: Conservatives achieve 8.8% under Theresa May

    12 December, 2019: Conservatives achieve 43.6% under Boris Johnson.

    An increase of 34.8%.


    That's the bar.

    That qualifies for PB Bollocks post of the week. Congratulations.
    Mr Mark should be proud to win such a hotly contested title. And congratulations, for at least showing that Sean doesn’t win every week.
  • IanB2 said:

    In ACTUAL national polling:

    23 May, 2019: Conservatives achieve 8.8% under Theresa May

    12 December, 2019: Conservatives achieve 43.6% under Boris Johnson.

    An increase of 34.8%.


    That's the bar.

    That qualifies for PB Bollocks post of the week. Congratulations.
    Mr Mark should be proud to win such a hotly contested title. And congratulations, for at least showing that Sean doesn’t win every week.
    Sean, erh LadyG, has some good posts
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 30,104
    Essexit said:

    Starmer is playing the long game and playing it well.

    His personal popularity remains high but he is not yet converting that entirely into Labour votes. To do that he must prove that Labour has really changed - the EHRC investigation will give him the ability to do that.

    If Corbyn and co are implicated in that - as I suspect they are - then they should lose the Whip.

    Agree that would be the right thing to do, but goodness knows what consequences it could unleash. If Corbyn's inner circle lost the whip, some of the newer, Corbynite MPs could follow of their own accord. If they formed a new party and took some members with them, they could split the Labour vote in winnable constituencies in GE2024. Or maybe they'd have about as much impact as Change UK/TIG/whatever.
    Less, I would have thought.

    Ask yourself one question - who would fund them?
  • I am sure I must have won the award some weeks
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 6,023
    ukpaul said:

    Third?

    I posted this on the previous thread, a gov.scot official calculator of your age equivalent to check your covid risk. Worth a look, I think.

    https://bit.ly/3gmCLw1

    I did, thank you very much. Very interesting. (Unfortunately, but at least I can do something about it and am ...).
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 27,168

    IanB2 said:

    In ACTUAL national polling:

    23 May, 2019: Conservatives achieve 8.8% under Theresa May

    12 December, 2019: Conservatives achieve 43.6% under Boris Johnson.

    An increase of 34.8%.


    That's the bar.

    That qualifies for PB Bollocks post of the week. Congratulations.
    Mr Mark should be proud to win such a hotly contested title. And congratulations, for at least showing that Sean doesn’t win every week.
    Sean, erh LadyG, has some good posts
    For sure, mostly in the daytime. He makes his championship drive after dark.
  • TomsToms Posts: 1,943
    ukpaul said:

    Third?

    I posted this on the previous thread, a gov.scot official calculator of your age equivalent to check your covid risk. Worth a look, I think.

    https://bit.ly/3gmCLw1

    I got my risk rating equal to my age, namely 81. That places me in the penultimate category. I see no way to lower my risk. Women fare better by five points. Would a sex change be worth it. Answer: no.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 30,104
    IanB2 said:

    In ACTUAL national polling:

    23 May, 2019: Conservatives achieve 8.8% under Theresa May

    12 December, 2019: Conservatives achieve 43.6% under Boris Johnson.

    An increase of 34.8%.


    That's the bar.

    That qualifies for PB Bollocks post of the week. Congratulations.
    Mr Mark should be proud to win such a hotly contested title. And congratulations, for at least showing that Sean doesn’t win every week.
    Although Sean has an unfair advantage given the number of IDs he has.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 27,168
    ydoethur said:

    IanB2 said:

    In ACTUAL national polling:

    23 May, 2019: Conservatives achieve 8.8% under Theresa May

    12 December, 2019: Conservatives achieve 43.6% under Boris Johnson.

    An increase of 34.8%.


    That's the bar.

    That qualifies for PB Bollocks post of the week. Congratulations.
    Mr Mark should be proud to win such a hotly contested title. And congratulations, for at least showing that Sean doesn’t win every week.
    Although Sean has an unfair advantage given the number of IDs he has.
    Having more IDs helps you generate more bollocks? I am not sure I am following the doctor’s logic.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 1,825
    Carnyx said:

    ukpaul said:

    Third?

    I posted this on the previous thread, a gov.scot official calculator of your age equivalent to check your covid risk. Worth a look, I think.

    https://bit.ly/3gmCLw1

    I did, thank you very much. Very interesting. (Unfortunately, but at least I can do something about it and am ...).
    For most people the greatest factor by far is age, which is hard to do much about. Age constituted over 98% of my score I am sorry to say.

  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 5,809
    Essexit said:

    Starmer is playing the long game and playing it well.

    His personal popularity remains high but he is not yet converting that entirely into Labour votes. To do that he must prove that Labour has really changed - the EHRC investigation will give him the ability to do that.

    If Corbyn and co are implicated in that - as I suspect they are - then they should lose the Whip.

    Agree that would be the right thing to do, but goodness knows what consequences it could unleash. If Corbyn's inner circle lost the whip, some of the newer, Corbynite MPs could follow of their own accord. If they formed a new party and took some members with them, they could split the Labour vote in winnable constituencies in GE2024. Or maybe they'd have about as much impact as Change UK/TIG/whatever.
    Corbyn and co will be looking into who owns the labour brand, that’s what his fundraising is probably for. I assume it’s who holds the registrations for the various required names for the electoral commission.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 30,104
    Toms said:

    ukpaul said:

    Third?

    I posted this on the previous thread, a gov.scot official calculator of your age equivalent to check your covid risk. Worth a look, I think.

    https://bit.ly/3gmCLw1

    I got my risk rating equal to my age, namely 81. That places me in the penultimate category. I see no way to lower my risk. Women fare better by five points. Would a sex change be worth it. Answer: no.
    Hospitalisation for non-essential surgery at this moment probably wouldn’t reduce risk.

    But you could just declare you are a woman and leave it at that. Apparently that’s all that’s needed.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 2,523
    edited August 1
    Slightly OT, but re; the earlier discussion on Andy Beckett's article on RCP / Spiked.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/aug/01/why-johnsons-tories-fell-for-a-tiny-sect-of-libertarian-provocateurs-rcp

    The fascinating thing is how many of these have maintained a continuity of view since the late 1980's. It's not just a typical tale of leftwingers moving to the right with age, but in fact of how some of the very specific issues linked to this confident, often largely unchanged group have influenced the right. The fusion of anti-elite and vanguardist rhetoric, for instance, rooted in Marxism, with classical liberalism from far elsewhere, is there right as we speak in Cumming's and Johnson's populist vocabulary.

    Some have asked of examples of links to specific policies ; but in politics, as many will know, rhetoric, emphasis and direction can be as important as individual policies.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 30,104
    edited August 1
    IanB2 said:

    ydoethur said:

    IanB2 said:

    In ACTUAL national polling:

    23 May, 2019: Conservatives achieve 8.8% under Theresa May

    12 December, 2019: Conservatives achieve 43.6% under Boris Johnson.

    An increase of 34.8%.


    That's the bar.

    That qualifies for PB Bollocks post of the week. Congratulations.
    Mr Mark should be proud to win such a hotly contested title. And congratulations, for at least showing that Sean doesn’t win every week.
    Although Sean has an unfair advantage given the number of IDs he has.
    Having more IDs helps you generate more bollocks? I am not sure I am following the doctor’s logic.
    Give the number of times he has said as part of his camo that he wants gender reassignment in theory it should in theory be the opposite :smile:

    I just meant that he much higher number of posts he generates gives him a greater chance of spouting rubbish.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 27,168
    ydoethur said:

    IanB2 said:

    ydoethur said:

    IanB2 said:

    In ACTUAL national polling:

    23 May, 2019: Conservatives achieve 8.8% under Theresa May

    12 December, 2019: Conservatives achieve 43.6% under Boris Johnson.

    An increase of 34.8%.


    That's the bar.

    That qualifies for PB Bollocks post of the week. Congratulations.
    Mr Mark should be proud to win such a hotly contested title. And congratulations, for at least showing that Sean doesn’t win every week.
    Although Sean has an unfair advantage given the number of IDs he has.
    Having more IDs helps you generate more bollocks? I am not sure I am following the doctor’s logic.
    Give the number of times he has said as part of his camo that he wants gender reassignment in theory it should in theory be the opposite :smile:

    I just meant that he much higher number of posts he generates gives him a greater chance of spouting rubbish.
    Personally I don’t think he needs any help. Late night posters were often left swimming in the stuff back in the day when he had just the one account.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 4,087
    FPT:
    ydoethur said:

    EPG said:

    felix said:

    EPG said:

    nichomar said:

    Report in Spain says that 18 to 29 year olds have very low perception of the risk of the virus to themselves, want to enjoy their holidays and suffer accrue peer pressure to join in with the majority. Not surprising but maybe there should be more focus on publicizing the Long term risks at whatever age.

    There is not a ton of evidence about "long-term" risks after less than a year. From Europe, however, there is evidence that manyyoung people can get the virus with very little impact on hospital admissions, let alone ICU.
    In Almeria that was certainly true initially but is slowly changing no doubt as they pass it on to more vulnerable relatives and frineds.
    Well, that's a different question: making big sacrifices on behalf of the older generation.
    Yes, this gets conflated endlessly on PB, I have no idea why. Of course younger fitter people can pass it to the more vulnerable. This is where the conversation started: shield the vulnerable, let others get on with their lives. We go around in bloody circles on here.
    And if you are a younger, fitter person whose teacher is one of the more vulnerable?
    Those teachers should be shielded and understudied. This is not easy; but it is possible - and better than closing the whole bloody country down.
    15% of teachers are aged over 50.

    If they cannot come back, we cannot reopen schools.
    Are you sure of that stat?

    Looks like a very young age profile...
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 1,825
    Another way of looking at this is that in a situation where a comedy PM, terrible on detail, is facing a particular problem which may well have no solution at all (something politics is not good at looking at), at a time when this awesome truth is beginning to come home to us (even PB is notably short of solutions, which is unusual) and the list of other and lesser matters includes: Trump, climate change, Brexit, China, NATO, Russia and worldwide economic collapse, to be 3% behind at this worst of all times when you are a serious leader of a serious party is sub-optimal.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 27,168
    Who was it here that recommended that history of Camden Council book?
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 1,919
    IanB2 said:

    That is not a logical tweet, presenting no actual evidence for its conclusions.

    If infection rates are rising, we would see a rise in the hospitalisation rate a couple of weeks later and in the death rate three weeks later. So far there is no sign of either, even in Leicester.
    Whatever one's view of lockdown and COVID there is evidence of fatigue in some parts of Europe.

    I just saw a picture of an anti lock down demo in Berlin. These things can be deceptive I suppose but its did look as though there were tens of thousands on it.

    Will we get that here at some point? its been very tame so far.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 2,523
    IanB2 said:

    Who was it here that recommended that history of Camden Council book?

    I think that was Sean F, in response to a comment from me.
  • EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,880
    ydoethur said:

    Essexit said:

    Starmer is playing the long game and playing it well.

    His personal popularity remains high but he is not yet converting that entirely into Labour votes. To do that he must prove that Labour has really changed - the EHRC investigation will give him the ability to do that.

    If Corbyn and co are implicated in that - as I suspect they are - then they should lose the Whip.

    Agree that would be the right thing to do, but goodness knows what consequences it could unleash. If Corbyn's inner circle lost the whip, some of the newer, Corbynite MPs could follow of their own accord. If they formed a new party and took some members with them, they could split the Labour vote in winnable constituencies in GE2024. Or maybe they'd have about as much impact as Change UK/TIG/whatever.
    Less, I would have thought.

    Ask yourself one question - who would fund them?
    That's certainly the big sticking point - they'd have members and MPs but few big financial backers other than Jon Lansman. Corbyn (or whoever led the party) would need to do a Bernie and pull in lots of small donations.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 30,104
    edited August 1
    MattW said:

    FPT:

    ydoethur said:

    EPG said:

    felix said:

    EPG said:

    nichomar said:

    Report in Spain says that 18 to 29 year olds have very low perception of the risk of the virus to themselves, want to enjoy their holidays and suffer accrue peer pressure to join in with the majority. Not surprising but maybe there should be more focus on publicizing the Long term risks at whatever age.

    There is not a ton of evidence about "long-term" risks after less than a year. From Europe, however, there is evidence that manyyoung people can get the virus with very little impact on hospital admissions, let alone ICU.
    In Almeria that was certainly true initially but is slowly changing no doubt as they pass it on to more vulnerable relatives and frineds.
    Well, that's a different question: making big sacrifices on behalf of the older generation.
    Yes, this gets conflated endlessly on PB, I have no idea why. Of course younger fitter people can pass it to the more vulnerable. This is where the conversation started: shield the vulnerable, let others get on with their lives. We go around in bloody circles on here.
    And if you are a younger, fitter person whose teacher is one of the more vulnerable?
    Those teachers should be shielded and understudied. This is not easy; but it is possible - and better than closing the whole bloody country down.
    15% of teachers are aged over 50.

    If they cannot come back, we cannot reopen schools.
    Are you sure of that stat?

    Looks like a very young age profile...
    https://explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/find-statistics/school-workforce-in-england

    C. 92,000 out of 500,000, so slightly higher than I thought.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 1,825

    Slightly OT, but re; the earlier discussion on Andy Beckett's article on RCP / Spiked.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/aug/01/why-johnsons-tories-fell-for-a-tiny-sect-of-libertarian-provocateurs-rcp

    The fascinating thing is how many of these have maintained a continuity of view since the late 1980's. It's not just a typical tale of leftwingers moving to the right with age, but in fact of how some of the very specific issues linked to this confident, often largely unchanged group have influenced the right. The fusion of anti-elite and vanguardist rhetoric, for instance, rooted in Marxism, with classical liberalism from far elsewhere, is there right as we speak in Cumming's and Johnson's populist vocabulary.

    Some have asked of examples of links to specific policies ; but in politics, as many will know, rhetoric, emphasis and direction can be as important as individual policies.

    A line on the actual policies, beliefs and practice of these phenomena, with boring detail attached, would be helpful. The Grauniad article + the comments so far have been filled with mystical abstractions.

    I see opportunists being opportunistic and no change from the usual form for modern power seekers. Enjoy the show.

  • MattWMattW Posts: 4,087
    edited August 1
    ydoethur said:

    MattW said:

    FPT:

    ydoethur said:

    EPG said:

    felix said:

    EPG said:

    nichomar said:

    Report in Spain says that 18 to 29 year olds have very low perception of the risk of the virus to themselves, want to enjoy their holidays and suffer accrue peer pressure to join in with the majority. Not surprising but maybe there should be more focus on publicizing the Long term risks at whatever age.

    There is not a ton of evidence about "long-term" risks after less than a year. From Europe, however, there is evidence that manyyoung people can get the virus with very little impact on hospital admissions, let alone ICU.
    In Almeria that was certainly true initially but is slowly changing no doubt as they pass it on to more vulnerable relatives and frineds.
    Well, that's a different question: making big sacrifices on behalf of the older generation.
    Yes, this gets conflated endlessly on PB, I have no idea why. Of course younger fitter people can pass it to the more vulnerable. This is where the conversation started: shield the vulnerable, let others get on with their lives. We go around in bloody circles on here.
    And if you are a younger, fitter person whose teacher is one of the more vulnerable?
    Those teachers should be shielded and understudied. This is not easy; but it is possible - and better than closing the whole bloody country down.
    15% of teachers are aged over 50.

    If they cannot come back, we cannot reopen schools.
    Are you sure of that stat?

    Looks like a very young age profile...
    https://explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/find-statistics/school-workforce-in-england

    C. 92,000 out of 500,000, so slightly higher than I thought.
    OECD says England median teacher age is 39, so 5 years less than OECF average median.

    Which appears to leave us well placed in that respect. I admit I am surprised given the rhetoric.

    https://www.cambridgeassessment.org.uk/our-research/data-bytes/the-average-age-of-teachers-in-secondary-schools/

    image
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 1,919
    I suspect by January we will see some quite big labour leads.

    Winter looks awful for the tories.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 2,523
    edited August 1
    algarkirk said:

    Slightly OT, but re; the earlier discussion on Andy Beckett's article on RCP / Spiked.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/aug/01/why-johnsons-tories-fell-for-a-tiny-sect-of-libertarian-provocateurs-rcp

    The fascinating thing is how many of these have maintained a continuity of view since the late 1980's. It's not just a typical tale of leftwingers moving to the right with age, but in fact of how some of the very specific issues linked to this confident, often largely unchanged group have influenced the right. The fusion of anti-elite and vanguardist rhetoric, for instance, rooted in Marxism, with classical liberalism from far elsewhere, is there right as we speak in Cumming's and Johnson's populist vocabulary.

    Some have asked of examples of links to specific policies ; but in politics, as many will know, rhetoric, emphasis and direction can be as important as individual policies.

    A line on the actual policies, beliefs and practice of these phenomena, with boring detail attached, would be helpful. The Grauniad article + the comments so far have been filled with mystical abstractions.

    I see opportunists being opportunistic and no change from the usual form for modern power seekers. Enjoy the show.

    The RCP have believed since the late 1980s in a sort of fusion of anarcho-capitalism and orthodox Marxism, with unbridled, technological capitalism apparently representing the last kind of hope for "progress" and modernity, and the authenticity of the working-class still somehow being paramount despite this, at the same time.

    I appreciate that's very abstract, but it's probably best understood in terms of justification rather than end result ; RCP members linked to the Tories have repeatedly used this line to push an anti-environmental agenda, while the vanguardist working-class rhetoric has been key in supporting Brexit.

    You could even argue that the kind of consciously, provocatively libertarian face of the early Johnson/Cummings approach to the virus also bears a link to this, and there we're getting nearer to the specifics of end results.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 30,104
    MattW said:

    ydoethur said:

    MattW said:

    FPT:

    ydoethur said:

    EPG said:

    felix said:

    EPG said:

    nichomar said:

    Report in Spain says that 18 to 29 year olds have very low perception of the risk of the virus to themselves, want to enjoy their holidays and suffer accrue peer pressure to join in with the majority. Not surprising but maybe there should be more focus on publicizing the Long term risks at whatever age.

    There is not a ton of evidence about "long-term" risks after less than a year. From Europe, however, there is evidence that manyyoung people can get the virus with very little impact on hospital admissions, let alone ICU.
    In Almeria that was certainly true initially but is slowly changing no doubt as they pass it on to more vulnerable relatives and frineds.
    Well, that's a different question: making big sacrifices on behalf of the older generation.
    Yes, this gets conflated endlessly on PB, I have no idea why. Of course younger fitter people can pass it to the more vulnerable. This is where the conversation started: shield the vulnerable, let others get on with their lives. We go around in bloody circles on here.
    And if you are a younger, fitter person whose teacher is one of the more vulnerable?
    Those teachers should be shielded and understudied. This is not easy; but it is possible - and better than closing the whole bloody country down.
    15% of teachers are aged over 50.

    If they cannot come back, we cannot reopen schools.
    Are you sure of that stat?

    Looks like a very young age profile...
    https://explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/find-statistics/school-workforce-in-england

    C. 92,000 out of 500,000, so slightly higher than I thought.
    OECD says England median teacher age is 39, so 5 years less than OECF average median.

    Which appears to leave us well placed in that respect. I admit I am surprised.

    https://www.cambridgeassessment.org.uk/our-research/data-bytes/the-average-age-of-teachers-in-secondary-schools/

    image
    This was my original source, which isn’t nearly as detailed.

    https://neu.org.uk/advice/older-teachers

    But the point still stands whether it’s 15% or 18%. No way can we accommodate that level of absence given how crammed the state sector is already. You could see class sizes powering past forty, and even if the remaining teachers could cope with that, few rooms in schools can accommodate that number.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 27,168

    IanB2 said:

    Who was it here that recommended that history of Camden Council book?

    I think that was Sean F, in response to a comment from me.
    I ordered a copy of it, and it has just arrived. It is reviewed as a racy read, so I am looking forward to reading it, particular as a flick through the index finds lots of people I know personally, having been involved in both Camden and London politics.

    The summary of the book appears to suggest a thesis that Labour councillors won when they were loony left but lost when they came to their senses. From which I had jumped to the conclusion that the writer was a lefty councillor who had overlooked the rather obvious fact that locals voted in Labour councillors when the Tories were in government but were rather less keen once Labour was in power and helping George Bush to reduce parts of the Middle East to rubble.

    But it appears that the author is a former Tory councillor who later defected to UKIP and, indeed, is one of that surprisingly large group of people who once briefly led that party.

    Which throws up the question how much can he really know about the goings on inside a long-time Labour run council? In my local government experience councils are awash with rumour and gossip, but you only really know what is going on when you are in administration.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 27,168

    I suspect by January we will see some quite big labour leads.

    Winter looks awful for the tories.

    And winter is, inexorably, coming.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 30,104
    IanB2 said:

    I suspect by January we will see some quite big labour leads.

    Winter looks awful for the tories.

    And winter is, inexorably, coming.
    The Tories face Stark choices.

    The question is, Arya sure they can handle it?

    And Vince misses a straight one again. Honestly, he’s more unconvincing than Dominic Cummings.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 4,087
    ydoethur said:

    MattW said:

    ydoethur said:

    MattW said:

    FPT:

    ydoethur said:

    EPG said:

    felix said:

    EPG said:

    nichomar said:

    Report in Spain says that 18 to 29 year olds have very low perception of the risk of the virus to themselves, want to enjoy their holidays and suffer accrue peer pressure to join in with the majority. Not surprising but maybe there should be more focus on publicizing the Long term risks at whatever age.

    There is not a ton of evidence about "long-term" risks after less than a year. From Europe, however, there is evidence that manyyoung people can get the virus with very little impact on hospital admissions, let alone ICU.
    In Almeria that was certainly true initially but is slowly changing no doubt as they pass it on to more vulnerable relatives and frineds.
    Well, that's a different question: making big sacrifices on behalf of the older generation.
    Yes, this gets conflated endlessly on PB, I have no idea why. Of course younger fitter people can pass it to the more vulnerable. This is where the conversation started: shield the vulnerable, let others get on with their lives. We go around in bloody circles on here.
    And if you are a younger, fitter person whose teacher is one of the more vulnerable?
    Those teachers should be shielded and understudied. This is not easy; but it is possible - and better than closing the whole bloody country down.
    15% of teachers are aged over 50.

    If they cannot come back, we cannot reopen schools.
    Are you sure of that stat?

    Looks like a very young age profile...
    https://explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/find-statistics/school-workforce-in-england

    C. 92,000 out of 500,000, so slightly higher than I thought.
    OECD says England median teacher age is 39, so 5 years less than OECF average median.

    Which appears to leave us well placed in that respect. I admit I am surprised.

    https://www.cambridgeassessment.org.uk/our-research/data-bytes/the-average-age-of-teachers-in-secondary-schools/

    image
    This was my original source, which isn’t nearly as detailed.

    https://neu.org.uk/advice/older-teachers

    But the point still stands whether it’s 15% or 18%. No way can we accommodate that level of absence given how crammed the state sector is already. You could see class sizes powering past forty, and even if the remaining teachers could cope with that, few rooms in schools can accommodate that number.
    Thanks for the comment.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 2,705

    I suspect by January we will see some quite big labour leads.

    Winter looks awful for the tories.

    There's an anecdote in a novel by ? Anthony Burgess about a bloke in ? Singapore who walks through a park full of monkeys on his way to work every morning and gives them treats to eat as he does so. One day he turns up empty handed and the monkeys tear him to pieces. This story makes me think of Rishi Sunak.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 6,023
    algarkirk said:

    Carnyx said:

    ukpaul said:

    Third?

    I posted this on the previous thread, a gov.scot official calculator of your age equivalent to check your covid risk. Worth a look, I think.

    https://bit.ly/3gmCLw1

    I did, thank you very much. Very interesting. (Unfortunately, but at least I can do something about it and am ...).
    For most people the greatest factor by far is age, which is hard to do much about. Age constituted over 98% of my score I am sorry to say.

    Exactly so. But if one is overweight, like me, then that is something to be done.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 37,085

    Slightly OT, but re; the earlier discussion on Andy Beckett's article on RCP / Spiked.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/aug/01/why-johnsons-tories-fell-for-a-tiny-sect-of-libertarian-provocateurs-rcp

    The fascinating thing is how many of these have maintained a continuity of view since the late 1980's. It's not just a typical tale of leftwingers moving to the right with age, but in fact of how some of the very specific issues linked to this confident, often largely unchanged group have influenced the right. The fusion of anti-elite and vanguardist rhetoric, for instance, rooted in Marxism, with classical liberalism from far elsewhere, is there right as we speak in Cumming's and Johnson's populist vocabulary.

    Some have asked of examples of links to specific policies ; but in politics, as many will know, rhetoric, emphasis and direction can be as important as individual policies.

    The Guardian says that as if libertarianism is a bad thing or an alien concept for the Tories. Coming after authoritarian May it may seem like that but there has always been a libertarian streak to the Tories, that's what attracts me to the party.
  • EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,880
    ydoethur said:

    MattW said:

    ydoethur said:

    MattW said:

    FPT:

    ydoethur said:

    EPG said:

    felix said:

    EPG said:

    nichomar said:

    Report in Spain says that 18 to 29 year olds have very low perception of the risk of the virus to themselves, want to enjoy their holidays and suffer accrue peer pressure to join in with the majority. Not surprising but maybe there should be more focus on publicizing the Long term risks at whatever age.

    There is not a ton of evidence about "long-term" risks after less than a year. From Europe, however, there is evidence that manyyoung people can get the virus with very little impact on hospital admissions, let alone ICU.
    In Almeria that was certainly true initially but is slowly changing no doubt as they pass it on to more vulnerable relatives and frineds.
    Well, that's a different question: making big sacrifices on behalf of the older generation.
    Yes, this gets conflated endlessly on PB, I have no idea why. Of course younger fitter people can pass it to the more vulnerable. This is where the conversation started: shield the vulnerable, let others get on with their lives. We go around in bloody circles on here.
    And if you are a younger, fitter person whose teacher is one of the more vulnerable?
    Those teachers should be shielded and understudied. This is not easy; but it is possible - and better than closing the whole bloody country down.
    15% of teachers are aged over 50.

    If they cannot come back, we cannot reopen schools.
    Are you sure of that stat?

    Looks like a very young age profile...
    https://explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/find-statistics/school-workforce-in-england

    C. 92,000 out of 500,000, so slightly higher than I thought.
    OECD says England median teacher age is 39, so 5 years less than OECF average median.

    Which appears to leave us well placed in that respect. I admit I am surprised.

    https://www.cambridgeassessment.org.uk/our-research/data-bytes/the-average-age-of-teachers-in-secondary-schools/

    image
    This was my original source, which isn’t nearly as detailed.

    https://neu.org.uk/advice/older-teachers

    But the point still stands whether it’s 15% or 18%. No way can we accommodate that level of absence given how crammed the state sector is already. You could see class sizes powering past forty, and even if the remaining teachers could cope with that, few rooms in schools can accommodate that number.
    50 is a rather odd choice of cut-off though - 70 is more usual for high risk of Covid. Of course some teachers (of all ages) have pre-existing conditions and other vulnerabilities, and they should not be expected to return. There are however supply teachers, recently retired teachers, people who have left the teaching profession (and may have just lost their new job), and even those who have nearly completed teacher training. I don't think it's beyond our wits to find the resources to re-open schools.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 37,085
    ydoethur said:

    IanB2 said:

    I suspect by January we will see some quite big labour leads.

    Winter looks awful for the tories.

    And winter is, inexorably, coming.
    The Tories face Stark choices.

    The question is, Arya sure they can handle it?

    And Vince misses a straight one again. Honestly, he’s more unconvincing than Dominic Cummings.
    Should we be surprised that Vince is useless?

    Apart from the Stalin to Mr Bean jibe, what did Vince ever achieve?
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 2,523
    edited August 1

    Slightly OT, but re; the earlier discussion on Andy Beckett's article on RCP / Spiked.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/aug/01/why-johnsons-tories-fell-for-a-tiny-sect-of-libertarian-provocateurs-rcp

    The fascinating thing is how many of these have maintained a continuity of view since the late 1980's. It's not just a typical tale of leftwingers moving to the right with age, but in fact of how some of the very specific issues linked to this confident, often largely unchanged group have influenced the right. The fusion of anti-elite and vanguardist rhetoric, for instance, rooted in Marxism, with classical liberalism from far elsewhere, is there right as we speak in Cumming's and Johnson's populist vocabulary.

    Some have asked of examples of links to specific policies ; but in politics, as many will know, rhetoric, emphasis and direction can be as important as individual policies.

    The Guardian says that as if libertarianism is a bad thing or an alien concept for the Tories. Coming after authoritarian May it may seem like that but there has always been a libertarian streak to the Tories, that's what attracts me to the party.
    There has, but there are many strands of libertarianism. There is a quite specifically confrontational brand of libertarianism linked to the RCP.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 4,087
    edited August 1
    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Who was it here that recommended that history of Camden Council book?

    I think that was Sean F, in response to a comment from me.
    I ordered a copy of it, and it has just arrived. It is reviewed as a racy read, so I am looking forward to reading it, particular as a flick through the index finds lots of people I know personally, having been involved in both Camden and London politics.

    The summary of the book appears to suggest a thesis that Labour councillors won when they were loony left but lost when they came to their senses. From which I had jumped to the conclusion that the writer was a lefty councillor who had overlooked the rather obvious fact that locals voted in Labour councillors when the Tories were in government but were rather less keen once Labour was in power and helping George Bush to reduce parts of the Middle East to rubble.

    But it appears that the author is a former Tory councillor who later defected to UKIP and, indeed, is one of that surprisingly large group of people who once briefly led that party.

    Which throws up the question how much can he really know about the goings on inside a long-time Labour run council? In my local government experience councils are awash with rumour and gossip, but you only really know what is going on when you are in administration.
    How far back does it go?

    One of the more interesting periods in Camden for me is 1975 ish to the early 1980s when the housing was being heavily infuenced by Mr Kendrick ... Livingstone that is, who was the local Housing Panjandrum, and they had been doing a lot of Compulsory Purchase.

    They were also doing some interesting stuff with design of Council Flats but by the early 1980s were building Council flats with build costs per flat of well over £80k - to the extent that it gets a mention in Pevsner as extortionate.

    When I lived there around 2000 for a few years it had all gone a bit bonkers and they had sealed up thousands of parking spaces under Council flat schemes, rather than use them to create eg Park and Ride to ease traffic congestion, and were loopy with crazed parking enforcement. But at that time it seemed to be full of bits and pieces of road where the Council had no writ to enforce for bizarre reasons, so you could leave your car for weeks.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 29,208
    Toms said:

    ukpaul said:

    Third?

    I posted this on the previous thread, a gov.scot official calculator of your age equivalent to check your covid risk. Worth a look, I think.

    https://bit.ly/3gmCLw1

    I got my risk rating equal to my age, namely 81. That places me in the penultimate category. I see no way to lower my risk. Women fare better by five points. Would a sex change be worth it. Answer: no.
    self id it is all the rage
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 5,106
    I thought Johnson came across better this week in general.

    The headlines from his campaign events earlier in the week made him look more self assured than he has been over the previous weeks.Then again the 'hands, face, space' press conference later in the week wasn't so good.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 27,168
    MattW said:

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Who was it here that recommended that history of Camden Council book?

    I think that was Sean F, in response to a comment from me.
    I ordered a copy of it, and it has just arrived. It is reviewed as a racy read, so I am looking forward to reading it, particular as a flick through the index finds lots of people I know personally, having been involved in both Camden and London politics.

    The summary of the book appears to suggest a thesis that Labour councillors won when they were loony left but lost when they came to their senses. From which I had jumped to the conclusion that the writer was a lefty councillor who had overlooked the rather obvious fact that locals voted in Labour councillors when the Tories were in government but were rather less keen once Labour was in power and helping George Bush to reduce parts of the Middle East to rubble.

    But it appears that the author is a former Tory councillor who later defected to UKIP and, indeed, is one of that surprisingly large group of people who once briefly led that party.

    Which throws up the question how much can he really know about the goings on inside a long-time Labour run council? In my local government experience councils are awash with rumour and gossip, but you only really know what is going on when you are in administration.
    How far back does it go.

    One of the more interesting periods in Camden for me is 1975 ish to the early 1980s when the housing was being heavily infuenced by Mr Kendrick ... Livingstone that is, and they had been doing a lot of Compulsory Purchase.

    They were also doing some interesting stuff with Council Flats but by the early 1980s were building Council flats with build costs per flat of well over £80k - to the extent that it gets a mention in Pevsner.

    When I lived there around 2000 for a few years it had all gone a bit bonkers and they had sealed up thousands of parking spaces under Council flat schemes, rather than use them to create eg Park and Ride to ease traffic congestion, and were loopy with crazed parking enforcement. But at that time it seemed to be full of bits and pieces of road where the Council had no writ to enforce for bizarre reasons, so you could leave your car for weeks.
    The chapters run from 1964 to 2006.

    It’s my own fault, really. My younger self would have realised in an instant that someone called Piers writing from his chambers in the Temple would be a Tory, and probably a right wing Tory at that. It is a sign of how things have changed that the said Piers being a radical lefty is now a credible possibility.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 5,106

    ydoethur said:

    IanB2 said:

    I suspect by January we will see some quite big labour leads.

    Winter looks awful for the tories.

    And winter is, inexorably, coming.
    The Tories face Stark choices.

    The question is, Arya sure they can handle it?

    And Vince misses a straight one again. Honestly, he’s more unconvincing than Dominic Cummings.
    Should we be surprised that Vince is useless?

    Apart from the Stalin to Mr Bean jibe, what did Vince ever achieve?
    Is Cable playing cricket for England now? He looks younger than I remembered!
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 30,104

    ydoethur said:

    IanB2 said:

    I suspect by January we will see some quite big labour leads.

    Winter looks awful for the tories.

    And winter is, inexorably, coming.
    The Tories face Stark choices.

    The question is, Arya sure they can handle it?

    And Vince misses a straight one again. Honestly, he’s more unconvincing than Dominic Cummings.
    Should we be surprised that Vince is useless?

    Apart from the Stalin to Mr Bean jibe, what did Vince ever achieve?
    I preferred his valedictory remark to Brown, who said, ‘given the nature of the Liberal Democrats, I expect to see him again shortly.’

    To which he got the retort, ‘Given his own position, he might not be too wise to be speculating about leadership elections.’
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 27,168

    I thought Johnson came across better this week in general.

    The headlines from his campaign events earlier in the week made him look more self assured than he has been over the previous weeks.Then again the 'hands, face, space' press conference later in the week wasn't so good.

    Person, man, woman, camera, TV

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 30,104

    ydoethur said:

    IanB2 said:

    I suspect by January we will see some quite big labour leads.

    Winter looks awful for the tories.

    And winter is, inexorably, coming.
    The Tories face Stark choices.

    The question is, Arya sure they can handle it?

    And Vince misses a straight one again. Honestly, he’s more unconvincing than Dominic Cummings.
    Should we be surprised that Vince is useless?

    Apart from the Stalin to Mr Bean jibe, what did Vince ever achieve?
    Is Cable playing cricket for England now? He looks younger than I remembered!
    He couldn’t possibly be worse than James Vince.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 1,114
    FPT - GOLFING TRUMPSKY

    Golf has a political connotations for American presidents best AVOIDED. These can be summed up as:
    > playing instead of working; and
    > upper-class (rather upper-middle-class) snobbery.

    IIRC Woodrow Wilson was first golfing president, followed by Harding who was a typical duffer-golfer fanatic. Harding's reputation for spending large amounts of time on the links enhanced neither his reputation nor that of the golf. One reason why Coolidge & Hoover avoided the game, as of course did FDR for other reasons.

    Harry Truman liked to play golf, but he was NOT in same league as Dwight Eisenhower. Indeed, Ike's passion for the game and time he spend on the links because political arguments against him. Of course he was re-elected anyway, but did NOT enhance his image.

    Kennedy, LBJ & Nixon lacked Ike's golf mania. Gerry Ford was fairly avid golfer, but kept it under wraps until AFTER he lost 1976 election.

    Wasn't until Bill Clinton that presidential golf again because a thing, as it was with Obama. By their time, sport had democratized somewhat, but still retained some tinge & taint of classes versus masses (as in "Caddyshack"). Which is why Trumpsky made such a deal about Obama's golfing.

    Golf - best avoided IF you are President of United States. Hardly bar sinister - but NOT helpful politically.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 1,919
    I suppose Johnson can take some comfort from the fact that things this winter are going to be rotten everywhere in the West.

    His problems will really start if other countries begin to pull out of this.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 30,104
    edited August 1

    FPT - GOLFING TRUMPSKY

    Golf has a political connotations for American presidents best AVOIDED. These can be summed up as:
    > playing instead of working; and
    > upper-class (rather upper-middle-class) snobbery.

    IIRC Woodrow Wilson was first golfing president, followed by Harding who was a typical duffer-golfer fanatic. Harding's reputation for spending large amounts of time on the links enhanced neither his reputation nor that of the golf. One reason why Coolidge & Hoover avoided the game, as of course did FDR for other reasons.

    Harry Truman liked to play golf, but he was NOT in same league as Dwight Eisenhower. Indeed, Ike's passion for the game and time he spend on the links because political arguments against him. Of course he was re-elected anyway, but did NOT enhance his image.

    Kennedy, LBJ & Nixon lacked Ike's golf mania. Gerry Ford was fairly avid golfer, but kept it under wraps until AFTER he lost 1976 election.

    Wasn't until Bill Clinton that presidential golf again because a thing, as it was with Obama. By their time, sport had democratized somewhat, but still retained some tinge & taint of classes versus masses (as in "Caddyshack"). Which is why Trumpsky made such a deal about Obama's golfing.

    Golf - best avoided IF you are President of United States. Hardly bar sinister - but NOT helpful politically.

    No, Taft was the first official golfing president (although it was rumoured Theodore Roosevelt played it when nobody was looking).

    On the other hand, given Taft once publicly carded 27 on a single hole, maybe it’s a bit generous to call him a golfer.

    And now Banton joins the procession. If Bairstow gets out, England are buggered.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 34,309

    I suppose Johnson can take some comfort from the fact that things this winter are going to be rotten everywhere in the West.

    His problems will really start if other countries begin to pull out of this.

    Sweden says 'Hi'!
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 37,085

    I suppose Johnson can take some comfort from the fact that things this winter are going to be rotten everywhere in the West.

    His problems will really start if other countries begin to pull out of this.

    Sweden says 'Hi'!
    Sweden as the country pulling out or the country struggling in your eyes?

    Sweden are struggling. They have the worst viral rates of all of Europe still, despite all their natural advantages.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 1,919

    I suppose Johnson can take some comfort from the fact that things this winter are going to be rotten everywhere in the West.

    His problems will really start if other countries begin to pull out of this.

    Sweden says 'Hi'!
    Mr Philip Thompson has a full set of reasons ready primed as to why Britain can NOT be compared to Sweden, and will deploy them imminently.

    Boris will be repeating those very same reasons from his bunker in January.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 1,114
    ydoethur said:

    FPT - GOLFING TRUMPSKY

    Golf has a political connotations for American presidents best AVOIDED. These can be summed up as:
    > playing instead of working; and
    > upper-class (rather upper-middle-class) snobbery.

    IIRC Woodrow Wilson was first golfing president, followed by Harding who was a typical duffer-golfer fanatic. Harding's reputation for spending large amounts of time on the links enhanced neither his reputation nor that of the golf. One reason why Coolidge & Hoover avoided the game, as of course did FDR for other reasons.

    Harry Truman liked to play golf, but he was NOT in same league as Dwight Eisenhower. Indeed, Ike's passion for the game and time he spend on the links because political arguments against him. Of course he was re-elected anyway, but did NOT enhance his image.

    Kennedy, LBJ & Nixon lacked Ike's golf mania. Gerry Ford was fairly avid golfer, but kept it under wraps until AFTER he lost 1976 election.

    Wasn't until Bill Clinton that presidential golf again because a thing, as it was with Obama. By their time, sport had democratized somewhat, but still retained some tinge & taint of classes versus masses (as in "Caddyshack"). Which is why Trumpsky made such a deal about Obama's golfing.

    Golf - best avoided IF you are President of United States. Hardly bar sinister - but NOT helpful politically.

    No, Taft was he first official golfing president (although it was rumoured Theodore Roosevelt played it when nobody was looking).

    On the other hand, given Taft once publicly carded 27 on a single hole, maybe it’s a bit generous to call him a golfer.

    And now Bannon joins the procession. If Bairstow gets out, England are buggered.
    Had forgotten about Taft - who golfing did less than nothing enhancing reputation of himself OR the game. He was actually a pretty diligent worker, but being a fat guy had reputation for needing naps. AND he was as upper crust as Thurston Howell III.

    So of course was Teddy, but HE hid it better, or rather made it just one facet of his very variegated personality. AND he avoided golfing publicity, in favor of big game hunting, wrestling, etc.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 37,085

    I suppose Johnson can take some comfort from the fact that things this winter are going to be rotten everywhere in the West.

    His problems will really start if other countries begin to pull out of this.

    Sweden says 'Hi'!
    Mr Philip Thompson has a full set of reasons ready primed as to why Britain can NOT be compared to Sweden, and will deploy them imminently.

    Boris will be repeating those very same reasons from his bunker in January.
    Britain is nothing like Sweden.

    But also Britain is doing better than Sweden despite Sweden's advantages. I suspect since we have eliminated the virus better than Sweden we will start in future quarters growing faster than Sweden.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 12,809
    IanB2 said:

    I thought Johnson came across better this week in general.

    The headlines from his campaign events earlier in the week made him look more self assured than he has been over the previous weeks.Then again the 'hands, face, space' press conference later in the week wasn't so good.

    Person, man, woman, camera, TV
    Showing off now.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 4,542
    IanB2 said:

    I thought Johnson came across better this week in general.

    The headlines from his campaign events earlier in the week made him look more self assured than he has been over the previous weeks.Then again the 'hands, face, space' press conference later in the week wasn't so good.

    Person, man, woman, camera, TV

    WRONG!
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 4,542
    kinabalu said:

    Showing off now.

    Also not as smart as Donald Trump...
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 27,168
    Scott_xP said:

    IanB2 said:

    I thought Johnson came across better this week in general.

    The headlines from his campaign events earlier in the week made him look more self assured than he has been over the previous weeks.Then again the 'hands, face, space' press conference later in the week wasn't so good.

    Person, man, woman, camera, TV

    WRONG!
    Lol. Serves me right for relying on Google and jumping to conclusions after it completed the search for me, rather than my memory.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 6,454
    "‘The lockdown has caused a humanitarian tragedy’

    Barrister Francis Hoar explains why the lockdown may have been unlawful."

    https://www.spiked-online.com/2020/07/31/the-lockdown-has-caused-a-humanitarian-tragedy/
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 27,168
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 4,542
    IanB2 said:

    He really is a cretin, isn’t he?

    Yes, but the really worrying thing is you can imagine BoZo giving an identical interview...
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 20,282
    edited August 1
    IanB2 said:
    Hopefully gone in January. Roll on the landslide loss.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 30,104
    edited August 1
    Eoin Morgan you pillock.

    I would say Ireland are slight favourites here.

    Edit - nothing slight about it now!
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 17,898

    In ACTUAL national polling:

    23 May, 2019: Conservatives achieve 8.8% under Theresa May

    12 December, 2019: Conservatives achieve 43.6% under Boris Johnson.

    An increase of 34.8%.


    That's the bar.

    Tsk. Comparing a Euro election with a General Election.

    What’s the increase when you compare the 2017 and 2019 General Elections?
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 14,546
    Cyclefree said:

    In ACTUAL national polling:

    23 May, 2019: Conservatives achieve 8.8% under Theresa May

    12 December, 2019: Conservatives achieve 43.6% under Boris Johnson.

    An increase of 34.8%.


    That's the bar.

    Tsk. Comparing a Euro election with a General Election.

    What’s the increase when you compare the 2017 and 2019 General Elections?
    That an increase was achieved at all was very impressive.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 3,750
    edited August 1
    ‘Rogue SAS Afghanistan execution squad’ exposed by email trail

    Incendiary documentary evidence has emerged in a British court in which allegations are made about a “rogue” SAS unit accused of executing civilians in Afghanistan.

    The evidence had been withheld from earlier proceedings of the legal case, prompting a judge to demand a full explanation from Ben Wallace, the defence secretary.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/rogue-sas-afghanistan-execution-squad-exposed-by-email-trail-7pg3dkdww
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 1,825

    algarkirk said:

    Slightly OT, but re; the earlier discussion on Andy Beckett's article on RCP / Spiked.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/aug/01/why-johnsons-tories-fell-for-a-tiny-sect-of-libertarian-provocateurs-rcp

    The fascinating thing is how many of these have maintained a continuity of view since the late 1980's. It's not just a typical tale of leftwingers moving to the right with age, but in fact of how some of the very specific issues linked to this confident, often largely unchanged group have influenced the right. The fusion of anti-elite and vanguardist rhetoric, for instance, rooted in Marxism, with classical liberalism from far elsewhere, is there right as we speak in Cumming's and Johnson's populist vocabulary.

    Some have asked of examples of links to specific policies ; but in politics, as many will know, rhetoric, emphasis and direction can be as important as individual policies.

    A line on the actual policies, beliefs and practice of these phenomena, with boring detail attached, would be helpful. The Grauniad article + the comments so far have been filled with mystical abstractions.

    I see opportunists being opportunistic and no change from the usual form for modern power seekers. Enjoy the show.

    The RCP have believed since the late 1980s in a sort of fusion of anarcho-capitalism and orthodox Marxism, with unbridled, technological capitalism apparently representing the last kind of hope for "progress" and modernity, and the authenticity of the working-class still somehow being paramount despite this, at the same time.

    I appreciate that's very abstract, but it's probably best understood in terms of justification rather than end result ; RCP members linked to the Tories have repeatedly used this line to push an anti-environmental agenda, while the vanguardist working-class rhetoric has been key in supporting Brexit.

    You could even argue that the kind of consciously, provocatively libertarian face of the early Johnson/Cummings approach to the virus also bears a link to this, and there we're getting nearer to the specifics of end results.

    I think I shall rest my case, while enjoying your use of 'sort of', 'apparently', 'somehow' (I want to know which how), 'could' and 'kind of'. Also let me note that the only point at which you come to detail is over the issue of the virus in which events have swept a 'provocatively libertarian' Johnson/Cummings approach into the dustbin and have fashioned the genius Cummings into an apologetic loser.

  • Frank Lampard = Failure
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 37,085
    Cyclefree said:

    In ACTUAL national polling:

    23 May, 2019: Conservatives achieve 8.8% under Theresa May

    12 December, 2019: Conservatives achieve 43.6% under Boris Johnson.

    An increase of 34.8%.


    That's the bar.

    Tsk. Comparing a Euro election with a General Election.

    What’s the increase when you compare the 2017 and 2019 General Elections?
    The increase was a net change of 100 seats in the majority. From a minus 20 majority to a majority of 80.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 5,809

    Cyclefree said:

    In ACTUAL national polling:

    23 May, 2019: Conservatives achieve 8.8% under Theresa May

    12 December, 2019: Conservatives achieve 43.6% under Boris Johnson.

    An increase of 34.8%.


    That's the bar.

    Tsk. Comparing a Euro election with a General Election.

    What’s the increase when you compare the 2017 and 2019 General Elections?
    The increase was a net change of 100 seats in the majority. From a minus 20 majority to a majority of 80.
    Only because of the corrupt electoral system in the UK
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 2,523
    edited August 1
    algarkirk said:

    algarkirk said:

    Slightly OT, but re; the earlier discussion on Andy Beckett's article on RCP / Spiked.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/aug/01/why-johnsons-tories-fell-for-a-tiny-sect-of-libertarian-provocateurs-rcp

    The fascinating thing is how many of these have maintained a continuity of view since the late 1980's. It's not just a typical tale of leftwingers moving to the right with age, but in fact of how some of the very specific issues linked to this confident, often largely unchanged group have influenced the right. The fusion of anti-elite and vanguardist rhetoric, for instance, rooted in Marxism, with classical liberalism from far elsewhere, is there right as we speak in Cumming's and Johnson's populist vocabulary.

    Some have asked of examples of links to specific policies ; but in politics, as many will know, rhetoric, emphasis and direction can be as important as individual policies.

    A line on the actual policies, beliefs and practice of these phenomena, with boring detail attached, would be helpful. The Grauniad article + the comments so far have been filled with mystical abstractions.

    I see opportunists being opportunistic and no change from the usual form for modern power seekers. Enjoy the show.

    The RCP have believed since the late 1980s in a sort of fusion of anarcho-capitalism and orthodox Marxism, with unbridled, technological capitalism apparently representing the last kind of hope for "progress" and modernity, and the authenticity of the working-class still somehow being paramount despite this, at the same time.

    I appreciate that's very abstract, but it's probably best understood in terms of justification rather than end result ; RCP members linked to the Tories have repeatedly used this line to push an anti-environmental agenda, while the vanguardist working-class rhetoric has been key in supporting Brexit.

    You could even argue that the kind of consciously, provocatively libertarian face of the early Johnson/Cummings approach to the virus also bears a link to this, and there we're getting nearer to the specifics of end results.

    I think I shall rest my case, while enjoying your use of 'sort of', 'apparently', 'somehow' (I want to know which how), 'could' and 'kind of'. Also let me note that the only point at which you come to detail is over the issue of the virus in which events have swept a 'provocatively libertarian' Johnson/Cummings approach into the dustbin and have fashioned the genius Cummings into an apologetic loser.

    The flow of ideas is always hard to measure compared to political end results, and so inevitably attracts contestation, and I'm only really acknowledging that by using qualifications.

    The results are very clear, for instance, in the way Brexit has been promoted as a class rather than solely cultural revolt against elites, which is new language for the Tories. Every previous wave of Tory populism since Disraeli, including Thatcher's, has linked the working-class to the upper-class ; in her case, to the authoritarians rather than wets of the establishment, who were "one of us".
  • Fysics_TeacherFysics_Teacher Posts: 2,809
    To which question is the answer “yes”?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 15,267
    Scott_xP said:
    I am very confident in saying that Marco is not a Cherry fan.

    He was very clear that he would be unhappy of there were any shenanigans with rules changes. I'm not suprised by this.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 14,821
    IanB2 said:
    Trump supporter. "Yeah but he's our Cretin"
  • IanB2 said:
    Trump supporter. "Yeah but he's our Cretin"
    But Hillary's emails!
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 17,898
    Carnyx said:

    algarkirk said:

    Carnyx said:

    ukpaul said:

    Third?

    I posted this on the previous thread, a gov.scot official calculator of your age equivalent to check your covid risk. Worth a look, I think.

    https://bit.ly/3gmCLw1

    I did, thank you very much. Very interesting. (Unfortunately, but at least I can do something about it and am ...).
    For most people the greatest factor by far is age, which is hard to do much about. Age constituted over 98% of my score I am sorry to say.

    Exactly so. But if one is overweight, like me, then that is something to be done.
    Even if I lose weight I remain in the same risk category. I am still trying to do so, mind. But the social distancing from the fridge is not going as well as it should.

    Honestly, there are days when I think my family would be better off were I to die. My children would have an inheritance at least to see them through the next few years. What is the point of a half-life at best staring at sheep, hiding from everyone, with all your interests - artistic, cultural, creative - closed down or too risky and watching your children have their hopes and futures destroyed?

    I suppose Johnson can take some comfort from the fact that things this winter are going to be rotten everywhere in the West.

    His problems will really start if other countries begin to pull out of this.

    Are other countries in Europe closing down restaurants to open schools?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 14,821

    IanB2 said:
    Trump supporter. "Yeah but he's our Cretin"
    But Hillary's emails!
    She is rubbish at golf too.

  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 4,542
    Alistair said:

    I am very confident in saying that Marco is not a Cherry fan.

    He was very clear that he would be unhappy of there were any shenanigans with rules changes. I'm not suprised by this.

  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 28,773
    Cyclefree said:

    Carnyx said:

    algarkirk said:

    Carnyx said:

    ukpaul said:

    Third?

    I posted this on the previous thread, a gov.scot official calculator of your age equivalent to check your covid risk. Worth a look, I think.

    https://bit.ly/3gmCLw1

    I did, thank you very much. Very interesting. (Unfortunately, but at least I can do something about it and am ...).
    For most people the greatest factor by far is age, which is hard to do much about. Age constituted over 98% of my score I am sorry to say.

    Exactly so. But if one is overweight, like me, then that is something to be done.
    Even if I lose weight I remain in the same risk category. I am still trying to do so, mind. But the social distancing from the fridge is not going as well as it should.

    Honestly, there are days when I think my family would be better off were I to die. My children would have an inheritance at least to see them through the next few years. What is the point of a half-life at best staring at sheep, hiding from everyone, with all your interests - artistic, cultural, creative - closed down or too risky and watching your children have their hopes and futures destroyed?

    I suppose Johnson can take some comfort from the fact that things this winter are going to be rotten everywhere in the West.

    His problems will really start if other countries begin to pull out of this.

    Are other countries in Europe closing down restaurants to open schools?
    Is there any point in causing deaths, by shutting down the economy, as opposed to causing deaths, by not shutting down the economy?

    Covid is just something we're going to have live with, I think.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 6,454
    O/T

    "The Roots Of Wokeness
    It's time we looked more closely at the philosophy behind the movement.

    Andrew Sullivan"

    https://andrewsullivan.substack.com/p/the-roots-of-wokeness
  • Fysics_TeacherFysics_Teacher Posts: 2,809
    Carnyx said:

    algarkirk said:

    Carnyx said:

    ukpaul said:

    Third?

    I posted this on the previous thread, a gov.scot official calculator of your age equivalent to check your covid risk. Worth a look, I think.

    https://bit.ly/3gmCLw1

    I did, thank you very much. Very interesting. (Unfortunately, but at least I can do something about it and am ...).
    For most people the greatest factor by far is age, which is hard to do much about. Age constituted over 98% of my score I am sorry to say.

    Exactly so. But if one is overweight, like me, then that is something to be done.
    @Carnyx thanks for the stew recipe: I’ve just made it and it worked really well. I’d be doing that again.

    Not sure how much it will help my waist-line but it is so much better than giving up and getting Deliveroo to take the strain.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 15,267
    Scott_xP said:

    Alistair said:

    I am very confident in saying that Marco is not a Cherry fan.

    He was very clear that he would be unhappy of there were any shenanigans with rules changes. I'm not suprised by this.

    Mandy taking Cherry chickening out well then
  • Fysics_TeacherFysics_Teacher Posts: 2,809

    IanB2 said:
    Trump supporter. "Yeah but he's our Cretin"
    But Hillary's emails!
    She is rubbish at golf too.

    Apparently he is a huge cheat:

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